15/12/2015 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.

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Tonight, we talk to the man who organised it.


Suffering from the cold and hot weathers and bad nights and the


people here who don't like us because we make a lot of mess here.


We have got to go and walk, and see what Europe can do for us.


We'll also be focussing on the cause - the war in Syria,


hearing from the man in charge of the US-led coalition.


We have really never seen anything like this before so it is a global


fight, it is a threat to everyone, and something we need a global


coalition to confront. As he continues to dominate


the polls, Donald Trump's They are talking about Mexican


rapists. FROM AUDIENCE: They're


talking about the wall! They can only win...


They're talking about the wall. I love the idea of the


Great Wall of Trump. The polemicist Ann Coulter explains


the Trump phenomenon. We've got an official astronaut


in space, at last. Newsnight looks back at the lost


history of the British Europe is keen to end the year


repairing its vision of a continent In the face of a migration crisis


and security concerns, It is to bolster


the external border. Or to put it another way,


it's about helping Greece and Italy cope with those arriving


on their shores with a new European Border


and Coast Guard. It will replace the Frontex agency


which is actually only Well, as the year draws to a close,


this programme is looking at the migration issue by catching


up on some of the characters whose images were beamed around


the continent this summer. In the second of our series -


the faces of the migrant crisis - Katie Razzall meets the man behind


an event which proved a turning point in how the migrants


were perceived and received. It was the moment that changed the


course of the refugee crisis. When was this photo taken? In a train


station when I was explaining to people what we have to do and how we


will walk. That's you? Yes, that's me. When Muhammad led a column of


refugees on a march across Hungary, the pictures helps define the scale


of the crisis facing Europe. At the start of September, with Hungary


cracking down on migrants, thousands were corralled for days in


Budapest's main train station. I get this plant that we have got to walk,


no one can stop us. I told them, don't be afraid, we can do a break,


walk today for eight hours, tomorrow eight hours, and stop every time we


are feeling tired. We have got to walk and we have got to not do any


mess. The Hungarian people will give us a lot of food and water and


everything, and the most important thing is that we don't mess the


place or the town or the street. Why did you think that? Because with the


cameras shooting us, the European people will see that we are walking


and we are doing mess. They say, these people are not good, every


time they eat they throw the things in the street and it is not


acceptable. Ever strategic, he invited TV crews to join his march.


I think the police or the Government cannot hurt us because we will be


shot on the TV. You knew about the power of television to protect you.


Yes, when I was at the train station I requested three channels, they


said, OK we will go with you. This was just days after the Syrian boy


washed up on a beach. The migrants' plight was making headlines. Even at


night, when negotiating the arrival of bosses, Mohammed made sure the


camera was there. I said to them don't be afraid, I am going to send


with you a cameraman and I will send with you also one guy, he will have


a car and he will follow you. Clearly a natural organiser,


Mohammed is still leading. Another march to take asylum seekers to the


local gym for a kickabout. A Syrian who used to work in Dubai and found


he couldn't go back home when the war started, Mohammed is now in


Germany. You were all over the newspapers and


the television in September with that march, then you disappeared


like everyone else to start your new life. What is your new life like?


Sometimes I am walking in the street, I don't feel like I am in


Germany, it is like a dream. The place is very nice, the people are


very kind. There have been demonstrations against refugees,


haven't there? Yes, it is happening, but it is just small people,


walking. Me and my friend here, they organised the walk also on Saturday.


It is with refugees. And do you think Germany, at some point, will


have to say we cannot have any more refugees? I think they will not say


this. Why not? I think in Germany they need more people because there


is a lot of people here who are really old, and maybe after ten


years, 20 years, a lot of houses will be empty. Germany also wants


people to work so I think they want more people, they want good people.


If you look back to your childhood, as a child would you ever have


thought I'm going to go to Germany? Did you know about Germany? When I


was a kid, I like to come to Germany because I love cars. I really like


BMW and Mercedes. Lots of people in Britain look at pictures of young


men coming from Syria as refugees fleeing war, and they say your


country is at war, you should be fighting for your country, you


should be there fighting. What would you say to that? Actually you have


got to ask this question, it is correct to ask this question, but


the answer is you don't know which one is fighting for the good. If


something is coming from other countries, like for example other


countries want to come to Syria and take Syria, and they want to kill


people there, we won't go out of Syria and we will fight for our


country. So you would have fought against another country invading?


Yes, but when you don't know what is the good things and bad things,


better to go. There, they are just killing each other. They will go to


the army and they will send me to kill my brother or my uncle, this is


not acceptable. This is why people go out of Syria, they are running


away from the Army. What do you think about other countries like


Britain bombing Syria? I agree with this, and this is the solution for


them. Because the people who stay in Syria, they are very weak. It is a


good thing that the Europeans start to do Army or such things for them.


You see yourself as staying in Germany for your whole life? I think


I would like to stay here in Germany. I would like to build my


future here. Working, having a house, getting married. Spending my


life here. I think this is a good place to build my future, it is a


good country and everything here is good. And what does he think of his


role in this historic moment in the refugee crisis?


Do you think you will ever do something like that again in your


life? I think no, it is only once in my life and I am going to tell this


to my children when I have a family, and they will be proud of this.


And you can see the third film in that series tomorrow.


From the consequences of a migration crisis,


The man in effective charge of the American led coalition


fighting so-called Islamic State is President Obama's Special Envoy


He's been in post less than two months, but was in London today.


A good chance to take stock on the war.


In many ways this is different than anything we've faced before.


30,000 foreign fighters from all around the world.


100 countries of the world, coming into Syria.


We have really never seen anything like this before.


And it is something we need a global coalition to confront.


Just characterise the enemy for me, if you would.


Do you see them as rational in any way, in their own terms?


There is no question about their overall ideology.


There is no question about, as we see them on the ground,


in terms of the number of suicide bombers even in just daily


engagements, sometimes ten to 12 suicide bombers in


We have had in Iraq sometimes 60 suicide bombers in a single month.


All the suicide bombers we assess are foreign fighters,


so they're coming from all around the world.


So people like this cannot be reasoned with and that is why


we are determined, as the president said, to destroy Isil.


Do they have, what is your best guess, do they have much support


on the ground among the population over whom, whose territory


So Ramadi, Isil pretended to be the defenders of the people


Eventually, when they really took over Ramadi back in May,


they cleansed the city of anyone that disagreed with them.


They tried to impose their doctrinaire, eighth


And now in Ramadi as Iraqi security forces have been


on the counterattack for two months and as Daesh is focused on the core


centre of the city, they have blown the last bridge,


basically isolating themselves in the centre of the city


and eventually the Iraqi security forces are confident,


it will take some time, we'll clear them from the centre of Ramadi.


But importantly, the fighters in Ramadi, based on our information,


you have Chechens, you have people speaking Russian,


you have Egyptians, you have foreign fighters from all around the world.


Holding human shields, the citizens of Ramadi,


So any notion that this barbaric terrorist group was serving some


sort of legitimate end has really been revealed as a total lie.


So the objective is clear, it is to degrade and destroy Isis,


it is not to contain or to contain and degrade,


it has absolutely moved to destroying them.


Everybody says, in order to achieve that goal,


there has to be a ground force at some point.


And the great mystery of this war has been who's


Can you throw any light on who it is going to be that


Well, it's different forces in different parts.


Let me go around the Horn, I will go clockwise.


So if you just take Syria and Iraq and the core, again this is not


just about the core, it is the networks and affiliates.


But it really is the core that we have to focus on,


To the west of the Euphrates River there is about a 98 kilometre strip


of border which Daesh still controls, with Turkey.


We are working that very aggressively with the Turks


And also with a group of Sunni opposition forces near the town


of Mara, which we call the Mara line, to begin pushing


But I will say the Russian air campaign has made


The Russians say they are attacking Daesh, and they are in some


respects, but they're also attacking moderate opposition forces


So the Russians have made that particular terrain a little


So in that part, Sunni Arab opposition forces.


East of the Euphrates, the entire border region with Turkey


It is Syrian Kurds and also increasingly Arabs and Christians,


which we are prepared to work with to push down and isolate Raqqa.


Those forces are actually having some real success.


Over to the east near the Iraqi border they have now cleared


an operation in just the last three weeks,


1000 square kilometres of very critical terrain.


We hope to continue and advance this process and eventually begin to


de-escalate the conflict between the opposition and the regime. 70,000


would-be above your own estimate? I think it is with -- within our own


estimate. We cannot get to a ceasefire unless we have a very


credible political process, but that will free up an awful lot of force


to focus on extremist groups. Special envoy Brett McGurk, thank


you. The last official inflation figure


to be published this year was released this morning,


and continued the extraordinary pattern that's been


with us through 2015. Not deflation, but not


really inflation either. This year of no-flation


is another of those massive To think that two years ago,


Bank of England economists were expecting inflation now


to be at the target 2%. We'll be looking back and looking


ahead with two commentators in a moment, but first


think about this year. As a measure of what a special year


this has been, just have a look That flat bit at the end,


that's inflation This is how far you have to go back


to get to a comparable period. Yes, all the way back to 1960,


when Harold Macmillan was Prime Minister, so long ago


no-one had even heard Now there is another way this year


has been interesting. 2015 saw the end of the long great


squeeze. Post-crash, we've had the longest


fall in average wages that Inflation - the red line,


was above pay rises - the blue one, leaving


ordinary people worse off. Years in which companies have had it


easy, profits have been high and workers have


suffered, has shifted. Not from higher wages note,


but from lower inflation. Well, inflation probably can't


stay as low as it is, as oil prices can't


keep falling as much as they have. tomorrow and we could follow


in the next 18 months. New hazards may come along,


but at least at last, we've had the first proper


respite since the crash. Well, joining me now to chew over


all of this are George Magnus, the economist and writer,


and Rain Newton-Smith who is the head of


economics for the CBI. Welcome. George, this year is


interesting, did you see it coming. The has has performed this year was


pretty double. -- predictable. The alp turned is not bad. -- out turn.


Low inflation also was not a surprise, what we did not see was a


further drop in oil prices which has just begun. The scorecard for the


year probably better than you could have hoped for. Rain, has it been


OK, for business, our businesses seeing profits squeezed with low


prices or do they love the low oil prices. If you talk to businesses as


a whole they see the UK as one of the bright lights in the global


economy this year and in the next couple of years, driven by the twin


engines of consumption and investment. One of the things that


struck me talking to businesses for the past six months is how resilient


the recovery is. It is more related to the sector you're in how you feel


about that and party that is how oil prices affect businesses and the


exchange rate. Living standards were a big thing this year, years of


unpleasantness for working households on average, that turned.


Can that continue. Of course economic slipknot known as the


dismal science for nothing. It would be churlish not to sound a little


note of caution for the year ahead. Everyone has their own favourite


issues they worry about. The three things I worry about in the UK,


productivity, which has started to turn after years of terrible


performance. The hourly output. Exactly. The efficiency of labour.


We have got to be, we hopefully can be confident that will keep going.


If not then the real incomes you pointed out in your package will


start to go in the other direction. Secondly is investment, although


that has picked up, the rate of investment in the UK is still many


percentage points of GDP lower than ten or 15 years ago. And third, the


corrosive impact of inter-generational inequality. The


difference between the way in which older citizens have made out during


the last few years and younger people. Young people really in terms


of income, housing, affordability, education, they have been screwed.


That is a terrible condition, it is corrosive. I think it should be a


big issue for the government. Do you agree with that. I think over the


longer term there is a concern about some intergenerational shifts we're


seeing at the moment. In a way the key to improved living standards in


the long term is productivity as George said. On that we are seeing


encouraging signs, economists have got it wrong before so we do need to


have some humility. But I think we expect business investment to


contribute around one third of growth in the next couple of years


and that should help productivity now and in the future. And there was


room for upward expansion in productivity, it is an opportunity


as well as a problem. Well we can ask where this goes now because


interest rate, tomorrow the US will make the decision. Expect patient is


they will move. What do you expect for the UK. Things have changed a


lot. Mark Carney said earlier this year he thought the situation would


become clear by the end of the year and he said today it is not clear!


So the consensus seems to be interest rates in the UK will not


move until the end of 2016 or even to those on they may go earlier, by


the middle of the year I think we will have the first rise in rates.


Well we are at the point at which there is no inflation. We do not


want to make the mistake of looking at inflation now and making a


decision on policy based on that, we need to look to the future and when


we talk to businesses they speak about skill shortages and how


difficult it is to find the right people to expand their business. I


think that is why all eyes are on the labour market and whether we


could see page picking up more strongly than expected. What is the


CBI predicting for growth next year. 2.5%. Sort of average. It is a lot


of consensus around the UK economy but there is a lot of fragility as


well and concerns around some global risks. But also whether some


headwinds could have more of an impact on investment than we


currently expect. In less than two hours,


Donald Trump will take part in the latest US Republican


Presidential TV debate in Las Vegas. Other candidates will of course be


there, but in truth, the debate in the Republican party


is mainly about Mr Trump. He continues to flourish


in the polls, notwithstanding his controversial proposal that foreign


Muslims should be barred He is not the bookies' favourite


to be next president, One of his supporters, possibly even


one of his inspirations, is the right wing polemicist


and best-selling author Ann Coulter. She introduced Trump,


and praised his stance on immigration, at a campaign


rally in Iowa in August. Since Donald Trump has announced


he's running for president, I can't believe I turn on TV,


he's on prime time TV every night about anchor babies,


they're talking about sanctuary cities, they're talking


about Mexican rapists. FROM AUDIENCE: They're


talking about the wall! They can only win...


They're talking about the wall. I love the idea of the


Great Wall of Trump. Well, Ann Coulter joins


us now from Las Vegas, where that debate


is soon to be held. Is it correct that Donald Trump took


some inspiration from you, Is it correct that Donald Trump took


talked about Mexican rapists before he talked about them. I have tried


to push the immigration issue on a lot of Republican candidates. A few


in particular I had long conversations with. And sent


advanced copies of my book adios America too. Donald Trump saw me in


an interview one week before my book came out, I was on the way to the


airport in Miami and got an e-mail from him asking for an advanced copy


of my book. My book has a lot of startling facts in it and is


carefully documented. I think it is the first time there was a lot of


discussion about a lot of the criminal cultures and launched my


country and the country just has no unity to that. -- immunity. We are


used to criminals being dumb and living there DNA all over the place.


A lot of people come into the country have a lot of criminal


habits, massive insurance frauds, and we have no immunity to that.


Have you had contact with European counterparts who think in a similar


way to you, the National front in France for example, are you talking


to these guys or in completely separate worlds. I guess I wish you


the best, I used to like to go on vacation there but I am American and


care about America. As we are finding out, so do a lot of


Americans. I want to talk to the language and tone of the campaign.


You have used words referring to Muslims or people of Arab descent,


rag headed camel jockey, is that right. It was a joke and a funny


joke and people did laugh. You have to give the full context of my


remarks. It is interesting, Donald Trump I do not think is used these


kind of terms. He has steered clear, why do you think he does not use


that language? I think you're wrong, I think we used similar language and


get attacked in the same way which is completely lifting little


snippets out and acting as if it was said with earnest anger which is why


two weeks after Donald Trump announced I brought some Hollywood


friends speaking out to group in LA and they were sceptical of him. They


walked out of the room saying that they laughed more than they do at


comedy clubs. He is extremely funny and when you see these clips of him,


or of me, where you cut off the point, cut off the job, it is just


one of the many ways that the media lies. I think in much of western


society people would avoid making jokes using racially disparaging


words. I wonder if you think it is acceptable or would be helpful to


the Donald Trump campaign if he started to use racist language more


overtly. I do not use racist language. You have to go back to a


speech from 2006 and take two words from a joke, a joke about political


correctness. And things going on in the world at that time. 10,000


people in the room laughed, that is funny. What Donald Trump is doing is


not, the big issue of the campaign is immigration. A lot of that has to


do with this always being the pushback. We try to speak about what


is good for the country and the only response is to hear epithets, you


are racist, you are a bigot. He is challenging that as well, that PC


regime that people are fed up with. I'm getting a slightly different


point, whether the tone that you adopt and which I think he has been


less adopting off, whether that tone is helpful to the cause you're


trying to promote. Whether for example using terms that disparage


people weren't that are rather coarse in the way you characterise


people, it is whether that makes those people better American


citizens and better disposed to you and less happy to think of you


getting killed in a terrorist outrage. It is whether these things


work or not. I call it funny. The New York Times euphemism for funny


is Softworks. Other people find it funny and it is a good way to get


the message across. People do listen to me and of course, Winston


Churchill gave speeches, of course he was self promoting, that is how


you get heard. And to be nit-picking a joke from eight years ago, it


shows you the pushback whenever we try to talk about immigration which


is driving down wages. Every one of your topics tonight, it is a


question of immigration. Dumping more and more poor and needy people,


demanding people, on the country, who sometimes flip up and commit


mass murder. But we cannot talk about that. I have not said you


cannot talk about immigration. We are talking about my language. That


was the languished you used, not immigration. One thing I do not


understand about Donald Trump, what he says about his daughter. Yes,


she's really something, what a beauty. If I were not happily


married and did not know her father... Or perhaps I would be


dating her. And a reference to her in Playboy magazine. What is he


talking about? He's just being funny that he has an


attractive daughter. He is famous for dating models, it is


self-deprecating. He is saying I have a beautiful daughter, a lot of


fathers say that about their daughters. You are against gay


marriage. What's worse, two men getting married or a 69-year-old


talking about dating his daughter, which is more creepy? I thought we


got our sense of humour from the British! He says his daughter is


pretty, and again we are nit-picking a joke rather than discussing the


important issues of the day, which is that Donald Trump is soaring in


the polls because he is the only one talking about immigration, something


American people have been asking for for 40 years. After this debate


there will be no one else on stage and Donald Tripp will have to start


doing card tricks or something because they will be wiped out.


Thank you. You probably didn't know


there was such a thing as a digital age of consent, so it can only be


a surprise a proposal is afoot The most striking consequence


would be that no one would be able to process data of an under


16-year-old So young teens would not be able


to go on social media Which raises the question -


is social media a healthy pastime Joining me now from Dublin


are Mary Aiken, a cyber psychologist and adviser to the UN on this issue,


and vlogger Lex Croucher. Mary, what do you think is the


problem with 13, 14, 15-year-olds unregulated by adults going into


social media sites? The issue we are talking about at the moment, the


current guidelines centre on those who are under 13. What we know in


terms of studies is that 39% of 9-12 -year-olds have social media


accounts. Clearly the current guidelines are not being adhered to.


This is another step forward in terms of data protection, where the


EU is proposing to adjust that age to 16, which effectively means


15-year-olds and under. Take me through what some of the


psychological problems are with those 15-year-olds being on Facebook


chatting to each other and whatever. I think chatting on Facebook doesn't


cause psychological problems, I think the issue is about periods of


development. For example, if you take a young child who is eight or


nine and develops a large network, really are they developmentally


mature enough to be able to cope with huge numbers of friends,


whether they are eight, nine, ten or 11, and particularly prior to


fundamental development periods such as Ericsson 's identity formation,


which happens between nine, ten, 11, 12, 13. There's a recommended number


in cyber psychology, for relationships it is actually 150. As


humans, once we build networks beyond that number, we begin to


suffer from social stress and exhaustion. Can you imagine the


burden for very young children with thousands of connections? Lex, how


many Facebook friends do you have? Not that many, only about 300. Do


you recognise any of this problem Mary was describing? I think when we


are talking about 9-12 -year-olds, that's a bit of a different issue


but I also see different changes coming about. I find that people who


have similar interests may be made friends they wouldn't be able to on


the Internet. So you can find niche groups. You are in your 20s now and


you started at what age? I was on social media forums from the age of


about 14. So you would have been affected by the raising of the age.


Mary, take me through what it goes to somebody in a state of


development, the harm it can do to them. What harm can come to someone


who is 14 or 15, and has created an avatar online and they are out there


being that person? It is an interesting construct. As a


behavioural scientist, this is an area we study. I think behavioural


scientists are lagging behind in terms of being able to advise


caregivers in relation to these issues. For example, if a child


creates an idealised version of themselves on a social media site,


which is a highly manipulated self, I mean physically manipulated,


better skin, more shiny hair, stretched to be five pounds lighter,


that virtual self may be increasingly distant from the


real-world self which can lead to psychological conflict,


hypothetically. I conduct research in this area, we are looking at


these transitions over time. In ten years we will be able to tell you


the impact of spending that amount of time on social media for children


at certain ages, but we would recommend that we don't have to wait


for the longitudinal studies and we pay attention to the issues now.


That's interesting, that there is a gulf between the online self and


your real self, is that true of you, do you think? Were you jealous of


others with clean skin and fewer spots online? It was a different


culture from the ten years ago, so these issues might be more prevalent


now. I just felt I made more connections with people, I found


friends online that I couldn't interact with in person so for me it


was positive experience but the culture is changing. Do you agree


with changing the age and saying you have got to have parental consent? I


just cannot see how it would be enforced. Would you advise parents,


Mary, to say yes to their 14-year-old who says can I go on


Facebook? If the law stipulated that they should be 16, I would never


advise a parent... But that law would state with parental permission


you could go on. What an adult into that space that is at the moment not


governed with an authority figure. I think it depends on the child.


Parents are best placed to decide how their child should proceed on a


particular platform, but I would also question, how much do parents


really know about what their children are doing online? When an


app is developed to allow a minor to take an explicit image and send it


and the image dissolves, now you are into an ethical and moral issue. We


have just had a case in Colorado where a group of young people were


using ghost apps which effectively can look like a screen calculator,


with collections of images which they were sharing, and parents had


no idea. Mary, we do need to stop now. I know there are many parents


desperate for advice of the kind you can give. Thank you to you both.


There is no doubt what has been the top story of the day


British man gets to space, without having to emigrate


Well done to flight engineer Tim Peake who arrived at the door


of the space station at half past five and who had to wait another two


Well done to flight engineer Tim Peake who arrived at the door


of the space station at half past five and who had to wait another two


It's like the immigration queue at JFK.


Tim Peake is described as the first "official" British astronaut,


but don't let that mislead you - Britain is not a newcomer


to the space race, though many schemes have sadly


Talking of which, here's Stephen Smith.


Perhaps to Tim Peake's surprise, he is on the left here,


and certainly to ours, Britain has found herself


involved in a bone fide space launch today.


You might never guess at the heartache and manly tears


witnessed in lonely corners of our island as the unsung British


space programme struggled for liftoff.


My name is Doug Millard and I am the space


The secret history goes right the way back to


We had a rocket called Skylark and that was one of the first


Way back in something called the international geophysical year.


The rocket downstairs, that was built on


At least it was tested on the Isle of Wight.


Black Arrow launched a British satellite in 1971.


The Americans launched their rocket from Cape Canaveral,


Multicoloured sand and chalet bungalows.


There is a glorious juxtaposition, so you have


a satellite manufacturing centre in Stevenage.


You have smaller satellites being put together in Guildford.


There is a bit of a spacecraft that landed on Titan,


Saturn's largest moon, it is about the size of a pencil


and that was built, well they started building it


in Canterbury and then they moved up to Milton Keynes.


The first bit of that spacecraft to hit Titan was made in England.


Is that the nose cone or is that the foot?


So it is a little thing about the size of a pen.


And it actually went kind of crzsssh.


Tim Peake arrives on the International Space Station


Even though he has put years of British


underachievement in space behind him, some things never change.


With classic English reserve, the astronaut keeps his feet


I think you would call today a spectacular day in the office.


You may remember the story of Lonesome George.


He was the century-old tortoise left wandering alone for decades


after all of the other Pinta Island tortoises died out.


His death in 2012 was thought to be the end of his species.


An expedition in the Galapagos Islands has discovered


what scientists believes are some of his blood


With careful breeding, they're hoping they can


So, we thought we'd leave you with some of George's best bits.


# I hope I live to relive the days gone by.


# Well tonight I'm gonna live for today.


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