15/12/2015 Newsnight

Tonight, we talk to the man who organised it.

Suffering from the cold and hot weathers and bad nights and the

people here who don't like us because we make a lot of mess here.

We have got to go and walk, and see what Europe can do for us.

We'll also be focussing on the cause - the war in Syria,

hearing from the man in charge of the US-led coalition.

We have really never seen anything like this before so it is a global

fight, it is a threat to everyone, and something we need a global

coalition to confront. As he continues to dominate

the polls, Donald Trump's They are talking about Mexican

rapists. FROM AUDIENCE: They're

talking about the wall! They can only win...

They're talking about the wall. I love the idea of the

Great Wall of Trump. The polemicist Ann Coulter explains

the Trump phenomenon. We've got an official astronaut

in space, at last. Newsnight looks back at the lost

history of the British Europe is keen to end the year

repairing its vision of a continent In the face of a migration crisis

and security concerns, It is to bolster

the external border. Or to put it another way,

it's about helping Greece and Italy cope with those arriving

on their shores with a new European Border

and Coast Guard. It will replace the Frontex agency

which is actually only Well, as the year draws to a close,

this programme is looking at the migration issue by catching

up on some of the characters whose images were beamed around

the continent this summer. In the second of our series -

the faces of the migrant crisis - Katie Razzall meets the man behind

an event which proved a turning point in how the migrants

were perceived and received. It was the moment that changed the

course of the refugee crisis. When was this photo taken? In a train

station when I was explaining to people what we have to do and how we

will walk. That's you? Yes, that's me. When Muhammad led a column of

refugees on a march across Hungary, the pictures helps define the scale

of the crisis facing Europe. At the start of September, with Hungary

cracking down on migrants, thousands were corralled for days in

Budapest's main train station. I get this plant that we have got to walk,

no one can stop us. I told them, don't be afraid, we can do a break,

walk today for eight hours, tomorrow eight hours, and stop every time we

are feeling tired. We have got to walk and we have got to not do any

mess. The Hungarian people will give us a lot of food and water and

everything, and the most important thing is that we don't mess the

place or the town or the street. Why did you think that? Because with the

cameras shooting us, the European people will see that we are walking

and we are doing mess. They say, these people are not good, every

time they eat they throw the things in the street and it is not

acceptable. Ever strategic, he invited TV crews to join his march.

I think the police or the Government cannot hurt us because we will be

shot on the TV. You knew about the power of television to protect you.

Yes, when I was at the train station I requested three channels, they

said, OK we will go with you. This was just days after the Syrian boy

washed up on a beach. The migrants' plight was making headlines. Even at

night, when negotiating the arrival of bosses, Mohammed made sure the

camera was there. I said to them don't be afraid, I am going to send

with you a cameraman and I will send with you also one guy, he will have

a car and he will follow you. Clearly a natural organiser,

Mohammed is still leading. Another march to take asylum seekers to the

local gym for a kickabout. A Syrian who used to work in Dubai and found

he couldn't go back home when the war started, Mohammed is now in

Germany. You were all over the newspapers and

the television in September with that march, then you disappeared

like everyone else to start your new life. What is your new life like?

Sometimes I am walking in the street, I don't feel like I am in

Germany, it is like a dream. The place is very nice, the people are

very kind. There have been demonstrations against refugees,

haven't there? Yes, it is happening, but it is just small people,

walking. Me and my friend here, they organised the walk also on Saturday.

It is with refugees. And do you think Germany, at some point, will

have to say we cannot have any more refugees? I think they will not say

this. Why not? I think in Germany they need more people because there

is a lot of people here who are really old, and maybe after ten

years, 20 years, a lot of houses will be empty. Germany also wants

people to work so I think they want more people, they want good people.

If you look back to your childhood, as a child would you ever have

thought I'm going to go to Germany? Did you know about Germany? When I

was a kid, I like to come to Germany because I love cars. I really like

BMW and Mercedes. Lots of people in Britain look at pictures of young

men coming from Syria as refugees fleeing war, and they say your

country is at war, you should be fighting for your country, you

should be there fighting. What would you say to that? Actually you have

got to ask this question, it is correct to ask this question, but

the answer is you don't know which one is fighting for the good. If

something is coming from other countries, like for example other

countries want to come to Syria and take Syria, and they want to kill

people there, we won't go out of Syria and we will fight for our

country. So you would have fought against another country invading?

Yes, but when you don't know what is the good things and bad things,

better to go. There, they are just killing each other. They will go to

the army and they will send me to kill my brother or my uncle, this is

not acceptable. This is why people go out of Syria, they are running

away from the Army. What do you think about other countries like

Britain bombing Syria? I agree with this, and this is the solution for

them. Because the people who stay in Syria, they are very weak. It is a

good thing that the Europeans start to do Army or such things for them.

You see yourself as staying in Germany for your whole life? I think

I would like to stay here in Germany. I would like to build my

future here. Working, having a house, getting married. Spending my

life here. I think this is a good place to build my future, it is a

good country and everything here is good. And what does he think of his

role in this historic moment in the refugee crisis?

Do you think you will ever do something like that again in your

life? I think no, it is only once in my life and I am going to tell this

to my children when I have a family, and they will be proud of this.

And you can see the third film in that series tomorrow.

From the consequences of a migration crisis,

The man in effective charge of the American led coalition

fighting so-called Islamic State is President Obama's Special Envoy

He's been in post less than two months, but was in London today.

A good chance to take stock on the war.

In many ways this is different than anything we've faced before.

30,000 foreign fighters from all around the world.

100 countries of the world, coming into Syria.

We have really never seen anything like this before.

And it is something we need a global coalition to confront.

Just characterise the enemy for me, if you would.

Do you see them as rational in any way, in their own terms?

There is no question about their overall ideology.

There is no question about, as we see them on the ground,

in terms of the number of suicide bombers even in just daily

engagements, sometimes ten to 12 suicide bombers in

We have had in Iraq sometimes 60 suicide bombers in a single month.

All the suicide bombers we assess are foreign fighters,

so they're coming from all around the world.

So people like this cannot be reasoned with and that is why

we are determined, as the president said, to destroy Isil.

Do they have, what is your best guess, do they have much support

on the ground among the population over whom, whose territory

So Ramadi, Isil pretended to be the defenders of the people

Eventually, when they really took over Ramadi back in May,

they cleansed the city of anyone that disagreed with them.

They tried to impose their doctrinaire, eighth

And now in Ramadi as Iraqi security forces have been

on the counterattack for two months and as Daesh is focused on the core

centre of the city, they have blown the last bridge,

basically isolating themselves in the centre of the city

and eventually the Iraqi security forces are confident,

it will take some time, we'll clear them from the centre of Ramadi.

But importantly, the fighters in Ramadi, based on our information,

you have Chechens, you have people speaking Russian,

you have Egyptians, you have foreign fighters from all around the world.

Holding human shields, the citizens of Ramadi,

So any notion that this barbaric terrorist group was serving some

sort of legitimate end has really been revealed as a total lie.

So the objective is clear, it is to degrade and destroy Isis,

it is not to contain or to contain and degrade,

it has absolutely moved to destroying them.

Everybody says, in order to achieve that goal,

there has to be a ground force at some point.

And the great mystery of this war has been who's

Can you throw any light on who it is going to be that

Well, it's different forces in different parts.

Let me go around the Horn, I will go clockwise.

So if you just take Syria and Iraq and the core, again this is not

just about the core, it is the networks and affiliates.

But it really is the core that we have to focus on,

To the west of the Euphrates River there is about a 98 kilometre strip

of border which Daesh still controls, with Turkey.

We are working that very aggressively with the Turks

And also with a group of Sunni opposition forces near the town

of Mara, which we call the Mara line, to begin pushing

But I will say the Russian air campaign has made

The Russians say they are attacking Daesh, and they are in some

respects, but they're also attacking moderate opposition forces

So the Russians have made that particular terrain a little

So in that part, Sunni Arab opposition forces.

East of the Euphrates, the entire border region with Turkey

It is Syrian Kurds and also increasingly Arabs and Christians,

which we are prepared to work with to push down and isolate Raqqa.

Those forces are actually having some real success.

Over to the east near the Iraqi border they have now cleared

an operation in just the last three weeks,

1000 square kilometres of very critical terrain.

We hope to continue and advance this process and eventually begin to

de-escalate the conflict between the opposition and the regime. 70,000

would-be above your own estimate? I think it is with -- within our own

estimate. We cannot get to a ceasefire unless we have a very

credible political process, but that will free up an awful lot of force

to focus on extremist groups. Special envoy Brett McGurk, thank

you. The last official inflation figure

to be published this year was released this morning,

and continued the extraordinary pattern that's been

with us through 2015. Not deflation, but not

really inflation either. This year of no-flation

is another of those massive To think that two years ago,

Bank of England economists were expecting inflation now

to be at the target 2%. We'll be looking back and looking

ahead with two commentators in a moment, but first

think about this year. As a measure of what a special year

this has been, just have a look That flat bit at the end,

that's inflation This is how far you have to go back

to get to a comparable period. Yes, all the way back to 1960,

when Harold Macmillan was Prime Minister, so long ago

no-one had even heard Now there is another way this year

has been interesting. 2015 saw the end of the long great

squeeze. Post-crash, we've had the longest

fall in average wages that Inflation - the red line,

was above pay rises - the blue one, leaving

ordinary people worse off. Years in which companies have had it

easy, profits have been high and workers have

suffered, has shifted. Not from higher wages note,

but from lower inflation. Well, inflation probably can't

stay as low as it is, as oil prices can't

keep falling as much as they have. tomorrow and we could follow

in the next 18 months. New hazards may come along,

but at least at last, we've had the first proper

respite since the crash. Well, joining me now to chew over

all of this are George Magnus, the economist and writer,

and Rain Newton-Smith who is the head of

economics for the CBI. Welcome. George, this year is

interesting, did you see it coming. The has has performed this year was

pretty double. -- predictable. The alp turned is not bad. -- out turn.

Low inflation also was not a surprise, what we did not see was a

further drop in oil prices which has just begun. The scorecard for the

year probably better than you could have hoped for. Rain, has it been

OK, for business, our businesses seeing profits squeezed with low

prices or do they love the low oil prices. If you talk to businesses as

a whole they see the UK as one of the bright lights in the global

economy this year and in the next couple of years, driven by the twin

engines of consumption and investment. One of the things that

struck me talking to businesses for the past six months is how resilient

the recovery is. It is more related to the sector you're in how you feel

about that and party that is how oil prices affect businesses and the

exchange rate. Living standards were a big thing this year, years of

unpleasantness for working households on average, that turned.

Can that continue. Of course economic slipknot known as the

dismal science for nothing. It would be churlish not to sound a little

note of caution for the year ahead. Everyone has their own favourite

issues they worry about. The three things I worry about in the UK,

productivity, which has started to turn after years of terrible

performance. The hourly output. Exactly. The efficiency of labour.

We have got to be, we hopefully can be confident that will keep going.

If not then the real incomes you pointed out in your package will

start to go in the other direction. Secondly is investment, although

that has picked up, the rate of investment in the UK is still many

percentage points of GDP lower than ten or 15 years ago. And third, the

corrosive impact of inter-generational inequality. The

difference between the way in which older citizens have made out during

the last few years and younger people. Young people really in terms

of income, housing, affordability, education, they have been screwed.

That is a terrible condition, it is corrosive. I think it should be a

big issue for the government. Do you agree with that. I think over the

longer term there is a concern about some intergenerational shifts we're

seeing at the moment. In a way the key to improved living standards in

the long term is productivity as George said. On that we are seeing

encouraging signs, economists have got it wrong before so we do need to

have some humility. But I think we expect business investment to

contribute around one third of growth in the next couple of years

and that should help productivity now and in the future. And there was

room for upward expansion in productivity, it is an opportunity

as well as a problem. Well we can ask where this goes now because

interest rate, tomorrow the US will make the decision. Expect patient is

they will move. What do you expect for the UK. Things have changed a

lot. Mark Carney said earlier this year he thought the situation would

become clear by the end of the year and he said today it is not clear!

So the consensus seems to be interest rates in the UK will not

move until the end of 2016 or even to those on they may go earlier, by

the middle of the year I think we will have the first rise in rates.

Well we are at the point at which there is no inflation. We do not

want to make the mistake of looking at inflation now and making a

decision on policy based on that, we need to look to the future and when

we talk to businesses they speak about skill shortages and how

difficult it is to find the right people to expand their business. I

think that is why all eyes are on the labour market and whether we

could see page picking up more strongly than expected. What is the

CBI predicting for growth next year. 2.5%. Sort of average. It is a lot

of consensus around the UK economy but there is a lot of fragility as

well and concerns around some global risks. But also whether some

headwinds could have more of an impact on investment than we

currently expect. In less than two hours,

Donald Trump will take part in the latest US Republican

Presidential TV debate in Las Vegas. Other candidates will of course be

there, but in truth, the debate in the Republican party

is mainly about Mr Trump. He continues to flourish

in the polls, notwithstanding his controversial proposal that foreign

Muslims should be barred He is not the bookies' favourite

to be next president, One of his supporters, possibly even

one of his inspirations, is the right wing polemicist

and best-selling author Ann Coulter. She introduced Trump,

and praised his stance on immigration, at a campaign

rally in Iowa in August. Since Donald Trump has announced

he's running for president, I can't believe I turn on TV,

he's on prime time TV every night about anchor babies,

they're talking about sanctuary cities, they're talking

about Mexican rapists. FROM AUDIENCE: They're

talking about the wall! They can only win...

They're talking about the wall. I love the idea of the

Great Wall of Trump. Well, Ann Coulter joins

us now from Las Vegas, where that debate

is soon to be held. Is it correct that Donald Trump took

some inspiration from you, Is it correct that Donald Trump took

talked about Mexican rapists before he talked about them. I have tried

to push the immigration issue on a lot of Republican candidates. A few

in particular I had long conversations with. And sent

advanced copies of my book adios America too. Donald Trump saw me in

an interview one week before my book came out, I was on the way to the

airport in Miami and got an e-mail from him asking for an advanced copy

of my book. My book has a lot of startling facts in it and is

carefully documented. I think it is the first time there was a lot of

discussion about a lot of the criminal cultures and launched my

country and the country just has no unity to that. -- immunity. We are

used to criminals being dumb and living there DNA all over the place.

A lot of people come into the country have a lot of criminal

habits, massive insurance frauds, and we have no immunity to that.

Have you had contact with European counterparts who think in a similar

way to you, the National front in France for example, are you talking

to these guys or in completely separate worlds. I guess I wish you

the best, I used to like to go on vacation there but I am American and

care about America. As we are finding out, so do a lot of

Americans. I want to talk to the language and tone of the campaign.

You have used words referring to Muslims or people of Arab descent,

rag headed camel jockey, is that right. It was a joke and a funny

joke and people did laugh. You have to give the full context of my

remarks. It is interesting, Donald Trump I do not think is used these

kind of terms. He has steered clear, why do you think he does not use

that language? I think you're wrong, I think we used similar language and

get attacked in the same way which is completely lifting little

snippets out and acting as if it was said with earnest anger which is why

two weeks after Donald Trump announced I brought some Hollywood

friends speaking out to group in LA and they were sceptical of him. They

walked out of the room saying that they laughed more than they do at

comedy clubs. He is extremely funny and when you see these clips of him,

or of me, where you cut off the point, cut off the job, it is just

one of the many ways that the media lies. I think in much of western

society people would avoid making jokes using racially disparaging

words. I wonder if you think it is acceptable or would be helpful to

the Donald Trump campaign if he started to use racist language more

overtly. I do not use racist language. You have to go back to a

speech from 2006 and take two words from a joke, a joke about political

correctness. And things going on in the world at that time. 10,000

people in the room laughed, that is funny. What Donald Trump is doing is

not, the big issue of the campaign is immigration. A lot of that has to

do with this always being the pushback. We try to speak about what

is good for the country and the only response is to hear epithets, you

are racist, you are a bigot. He is challenging that as well, that PC

regime that people are fed up with. I'm getting a slightly different

point, whether the tone that you adopt and which I think he has been

less adopting off, whether that tone is helpful to the cause you're

trying to promote. Whether for example using terms that disparage

people weren't that are rather coarse in the way you characterise

people, it is whether that makes those people better American

citizens and better disposed to you and less happy to think of you

getting killed in a terrorist outrage. It is whether these things

work or not. I call it funny. The New York Times euphemism for funny

is Softworks. Other people find it funny and it is a good way to get

the message across. People do listen to me and of course, Winston

Churchill gave speeches, of course he was self promoting, that is how

you get heard. And to be nit-picking a joke from eight years ago, it

shows you the pushback whenever we try to talk about immigration which

is driving down wages. Every one of your topics tonight, it is a

question of immigration. Dumping more and more poor and needy people,

demanding people, on the country, who sometimes flip up and commit

mass murder. But we cannot talk about that. I have not said you

cannot talk about immigration. We are talking about my language. That

was the languished you used, not immigration. One thing I do not

understand about Donald Trump, what he says about his daughter. Yes,

she's really something, what a beauty. If I were not happily

married and did not know her father... Or perhaps I would be

dating her. And a reference to her in Playboy magazine. What is he

talking about? He's just being funny that he has an

attractive daughter. He is famous for dating models, it is

self-deprecating. He is saying I have a beautiful daughter, a lot of

fathers say that about their daughters. You are against gay

marriage. What's worse, two men getting married or a 69-year-old

talking about dating his daughter, which is more creepy? I thought we

got our sense of humour from the British! He says his daughter is

pretty, and again we are nit-picking a joke rather than discussing the

important issues of the day, which is that Donald Trump is soaring in

the polls because he is the only one talking about immigration, something

American people have been asking for for 40 years. After this debate

there will be no one else on stage and Donald Tripp will have to start

doing card tricks or something because they will be wiped out.

Thank you. You probably didn't know

there was such a thing as a digital age of consent, so it can only be

a surprise a proposal is afoot The most striking consequence

would be that no one would be able to process data of an under

16-year-old So young teens would not be able

to go on social media Which raises the question -

is social media a healthy pastime Joining me now from Dublin

are Mary Aiken, a cyber psychologist and adviser to the UN on this issue,

and vlogger Lex Croucher. Mary, what do you think is the

problem with 13, 14, 15-year-olds unregulated by adults going into

social media sites? The issue we are talking about at the moment, the

current guidelines centre on those who are under 13. What we know in

terms of studies is that 39% of 9-12 -year-olds have social media

accounts. Clearly the current guidelines are not being adhered to.

This is another step forward in terms of data protection, where the

EU is proposing to adjust that age to 16, which effectively means

15-year-olds and under. Take me through what some of the

psychological problems are with those 15-year-olds being on Facebook

chatting to each other and whatever. I think chatting on Facebook doesn't

cause psychological problems, I think the issue is about periods of

development. For example, if you take a young child who is eight or

nine and develops a large network, really are they developmentally

mature enough to be able to cope with huge numbers of friends,

whether they are eight, nine, ten or 11, and particularly prior to

fundamental development periods such as Ericsson 's identity formation,

which happens between nine, ten, 11, 12, 13. There's a recommended number

in cyber psychology, for relationships it is actually 150. As

humans, once we build networks beyond that number, we begin to

suffer from social stress and exhaustion. Can you imagine the

burden for very young children with thousands of connections? Lex, how

many Facebook friends do you have? Not that many, only about 300. Do

you recognise any of this problem Mary was describing? I think when we

are talking about 9-12 -year-olds, that's a bit of a different issue

but I also see different changes coming about. I find that people who

have similar interests may be made friends they wouldn't be able to on

the Internet. So you can find niche groups. You are in your 20s now and

you started at what age? I was on social media forums from the age of

about 14. So you would have been affected by the raising of the age.

Mary, take me through what it goes to somebody in a state of

development, the harm it can do to them. What harm can come to someone

who is 14 or 15, and has created an avatar online and they are out there

being that person? It is an interesting construct. As a

behavioural scientist, this is an area we study. I think behavioural

scientists are lagging behind in terms of being able to advise

caregivers in relation to these issues. For example, if a child

creates an idealised version of themselves on a social media site,

which is a highly manipulated self, I mean physically manipulated,

better skin, more shiny hair, stretched to be five pounds lighter,

that virtual self may be increasingly distant from the

real-world self which can lead to psychological conflict,

hypothetically. I conduct research in this area, we are looking at

these transitions over time. In ten years we will be able to tell you

the impact of spending that amount of time on social media for children

at certain ages, but we would recommend that we don't have to wait

for the longitudinal studies and we pay attention to the issues now.

That's interesting, that there is a gulf between the online self and

your real self, is that true of you, do you think? Were you jealous of

others with clean skin and fewer spots online? It was a different

culture from the ten years ago, so these issues might be more prevalent

now. I just felt I made more connections with people, I found

friends online that I couldn't interact with in person so for me it

was positive experience but the culture is changing. Do you agree

with changing the age and saying you have got to have parental consent? I

just cannot see how it would be enforced. Would you advise parents,

Mary, to say yes to their 14-year-old who says can I go on

Facebook? If the law stipulated that they should be 16, I would never

advise a parent... But that law would state with parental permission

you could go on. What an adult into that space that is at the moment not

governed with an authority figure. I think it depends on the child.

Parents are best placed to decide how their child should proceed on a

particular platform, but I would also question, how much do parents

really know about what their children are doing online? When an

app is developed to allow a minor to take an explicit image and send it

and the image dissolves, now you are into an ethical and moral issue. We

have just had a case in Colorado where a group of young people were

using ghost apps which effectively can look like a screen calculator,

with collections of images which they were sharing, and parents had

no idea. Mary, we do need to stop now. I know there are many parents

desperate for advice of the kind you can give. Thank you to you both.

There is no doubt what has been the top story of the day

British man gets to space, without having to emigrate

Well done to flight engineer Tim Peake who arrived at the door

of the space station at half past five and who had to wait another two

Well done to flight engineer Tim Peake who arrived at the door

of the space station at half past five and who had to wait another two

It's like the immigration queue at JFK.

Tim Peake is described as the first "official" British astronaut,

but don't let that mislead you - Britain is not a newcomer

to the space race, though many schemes have sadly

Talking of which, here's Stephen Smith.

Perhaps to Tim Peake's surprise, he is on the left here,

and certainly to ours, Britain has found herself

involved in a bone fide space launch today.

You might never guess at the heartache and manly tears

witnessed in lonely corners of our island as the unsung British

space programme struggled for liftoff.

My name is Doug Millard and I am the space

The secret history goes right the way back to

We had a rocket called Skylark and that was one of the first

Way back in something called the international geophysical year.

The rocket downstairs, that was built on

At least it was tested on the Isle of Wight.

Black Arrow launched a British satellite in 1971.

The Americans launched their rocket from Cape Canaveral,

Multicoloured sand and chalet bungalows.

There is a glorious juxtaposition, so you have

a satellite manufacturing centre in Stevenage.

You have smaller satellites being put together in Guildford.

There is a bit of a spacecraft that landed on Titan,

Saturn's largest moon, it is about the size of a pencil

and that was built, well they started building it

in Canterbury and then they moved up to Milton Keynes.

The first bit of that spacecraft to hit Titan was made in England.

Is that the nose cone or is that the foot?

So it is a little thing about the size of a pen.

And it actually went kind of crzsssh.

Tim Peake arrives on the International Space Station

Even though he has put years of British

underachievement in space behind him, some things never change.

With classic English reserve, the astronaut keeps his feet

I think you would call today a spectacular day in the office.

You may remember the story of Lonesome George.

He was the century-old tortoise left wandering alone for decades

after all of the other Pinta Island tortoises died out.

His death in 2012 was thought to be the end of his species.

An expedition in the Galapagos Islands has discovered

what scientists believes are some of his blood

With careful breeding, they're hoping they can

So, we thought we'd leave you with some of George's best bits.

# I hope I live to relive the days gone by.

# Well tonight I'm gonna live for today.