26/01/2016 Newsnight


26/01/2016

Investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Will migration break Europe's open borders treaty? Plus Tory bullying in its youth wing.


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Nations apparently ready to trample over treaties in their struggle

:00:00.:00:00.

And, at the heart of it, Germany divided.

:00:07.:00:12.

Fingers are being pointed at Greece - again.

:00:13.:00:20.

I expect from spring on the figures will go up again and we will be

:00:21.:00:26.

facing two million and I think this is not an option, not even for Mrs

:00:27.:00:29.

Merkel. Fingers are being pointed

:00:30.:00:33.

at Greece - again. Could it be kicked out

:00:34.:00:34.

of the borderless Schengen zone? We'll hear the response

:00:35.:00:37.

of the Greek Migration Minister. A new worry about the zika virus

:00:38.:00:39.

that harms the unborn. We'll hear from a researcher

:00:40.:00:42.

into insect-borne disease who says And, Apple - how can they revive

:00:43.:00:47.

their plateauing iphone sales? They've started talking about what

:00:48.:01:04.

he called switch, people came on board with an android phone and

:01:05.:01:07.

switched over. In one respect Europe can be proud -

:01:08.:01:12.

it's a continent so pleasant, that a lot of people

:01:13.:01:16.

want to live in it. 45,000 people have arrived

:01:17.:01:19.

in Greece this year. What the continent cannot be proud

:01:20.:01:21.

of is the shambolic response European Interior Ministers met

:01:22.:01:24.

in Amsterdam yesterday, with proposals that potentially chip

:01:25.:01:31.

away at the Schengen Treaty, creating a borderless

:01:32.:01:35.

zone of 26 countries. Now, amazingly, the same two

:01:36.:01:37.

countries at the centre of the euro crisis last summer,

:01:38.:01:43.

are at the centre of this one. Greece is blamed for not enforcing

:01:44.:01:46.

the external EU border. But Germany is doing

:01:47.:01:50.

some of the blaming, as well as agonising over the wisdom

:01:51.:01:55.

of its open door policy. Daily, twice an hour,

:01:56.:01:58.

the police assemble And it is here in the cold

:01:59.:02:20.

of a Bavarian winter, the multitudes step out

:02:21.:02:27.

into their promised land. Among those being registered,

:02:28.:02:42.

the Ahools from Aleppo. Two sisters, their brother,

:02:43.:02:46.

and five children under eight. They have braved the sea from Greece

:02:47.:02:51.

and the frozen Balkans. Here the single men also

:02:52.:03:00.

are separated from groups and hidden This winter was meant to be

:03:01.:03:10.

a time when the numbers Our area in Rosenheim,

:03:11.:03:17.

yesterday we had 900 refugees. But we could say the last weeks,

:03:18.:03:30.

up from 1000, to 2000 per day. Add those reaching other centres

:03:31.:03:40.

in Bavaria, and officials told us it At that rate, Germany will break

:03:41.:03:43.

last year's total of 1.1 million A few men were separated,

:03:44.:03:52.

papers suggested they had already While others went on to refugee

:03:53.:04:00.

hostels and the unlucky few were taken off for

:04:01.:04:19.

probable deportation. In the vastness of the Bavarian

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mountains certain things are becoming chillingly

:04:21.:04:22.

clear for Germany. Notably the failure

:04:23.:04:28.

to reach European solutions and the implications

:04:29.:04:30.

for this country. In this remote resort,

:04:31.:04:34.

Wildbad Kreuth, the CSU, the Bavarian branch

:04:35.:04:38.

of Angela Merkel's party, And they were in a state of revolt

:04:39.:04:39.

over their leader's So we need a quick solution

:04:40.:04:49.

and a quick solution means that we have to consider border

:04:50.:04:53.

controls at national level, that we have to recheck immigrants

:04:54.:04:55.

that come to Bavaria in a very high And we want to make clear that this

:04:56.:05:01.

is just not manageable. How long has it got,

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do you think, before Germany imposes full border controls and takes

:05:14.:05:15.

matters into its own hand? I think it is a question of days

:05:16.:05:19.

or weeks, but not months. A German unilateral solution

:05:20.:05:27.

with untold consequences In an attempt to staunch more

:05:28.:05:36.

trouble, Mrs Merkel came to Kreuth. Her emphasis, even now,

:05:37.:05:54.

is one of joint solutions But the record so far,

:05:55.:05:57.

and actions of neighbours in taking unilateral steps, suggests Germany

:05:58.:06:00.

is reaching a moment of decision. Frankly, I do not really see

:06:01.:06:03.

the signals in Brussels now. Facts are being created

:06:04.:06:05.

on the ground, we're seeing Austria Potentially then closing

:06:06.:06:10.

its borders. Because that is what

:06:11.:06:13.

it implicitly means. So she certainly is seriously

:06:14.:06:15.

running out of time. Hundreds of miles to the north,

:06:16.:06:23.

the Bavarian situation is making In an attempt to ease the tensions,

:06:24.:06:29.

several Berlin museums have signed up to a programme,

:06:30.:06:34.

using refugees as guides. Educating both the Arab-speaking

:06:35.:06:41.

new arrivals and German visitors. Salma Jreige came 18

:06:42.:06:46.

months ago from Syria. She's hoping Chancellor Merkel

:06:47.:06:50.

doesn't abandon her asylum policy. Even though she has a lot

:06:51.:06:55.

of opponents right now who don't agree with this precise

:06:56.:07:02.

policy with refugees, but she's carrying on and at

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the same time there are a lot of people who are encouraging her

:07:04.:07:07.

and the people, the refugees themselves, really appreciate this

:07:08.:07:10.

because they're sensing that Germany is giving them more opportunities

:07:11.:07:13.

than other European countries are. So I say carry on and

:07:14.:07:21.

as in Arabic we say.. But in Berlin, and elsewhere,

:07:22.:07:24.

the new year's events in Cologne In the district of Landshut

:07:25.:07:28.

in Bavaria the local mayor has He recently packed a bus full

:07:29.:07:39.

of refugees off to Berlin because he said there's

:07:40.:07:46.

no more room here. With dozens more arriving each week,

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the mayor says he fears social Mr Dreier directed us to this place,

:07:49.:07:51.

one of several centres for hundreds So, back in October they ran out

:07:52.:08:24.

of space in proper hostels and they've just had to open places

:08:25.:08:39.

like this up one after the other, disused retail warehouses,

:08:40.:08:43.

a school's being considered in another case and they've had 180

:08:44.:08:45.

people in here since October. Cooped up here for months,

:08:46.:08:50.

little wonder boredom People told us they didn't feel

:08:51.:08:52.

safe, that there were frequent fights between different

:08:53.:08:57.

sectarian groups. Families, meanwhile,

:08:58.:09:03.

tried to maintain some semblance And here, too, we found even

:09:04.:09:06.

Syrian refugees urging the German Government

:09:07.:09:17.

to find a plan B. This is one of hundreds of temporary

:09:18.:09:52.

refuges across Germany and with 3,000-plus new arrivals

:09:53.:09:55.

daily, even Merkel loyalists I expect that from spring

:09:56.:10:02.

on the figures will go up again and then we will be facing two

:10:03.:10:09.

million and I think this is not Plan B would be much more popular,

:10:10.:10:12.

which would be really to reject I know also that we are capable

:10:13.:10:24.

of doing it because the federal police and the army would be capable

:10:25.:10:28.

to secure the border. And they would just

:10:29.:10:31.

have to be triggered. The German Government still hopes

:10:32.:10:41.

to push its neighbours into doing more but in Bavaria a clear

:10:42.:10:43.

picture is emerging. People are still arriving in numbers

:10:44.:10:49.

that local authorities It's a situation fraught with risk

:10:50.:10:50.

for the European project Joining me now from Brussels

:10:51.:10:56.

is the German MEP Elmar Brok, a firm supporter of Angela Merkel

:10:57.:11:11.

and the Chairman of the European Parliament Committee

:11:12.:11:14.

on Foreign Affairs. Evening to you. I don't know if you

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listened to that. If the rest of Europe doesn't join Germany in

:11:21.:11:23.

trying to shoulder the number of people coming in, do you think

:11:24.:11:27.

Germany can go on receiving this number? Germany does not want to go

:11:28.:11:39.

on, Mrs Merkel doesn't want to go on. We have to look into

:11:40.:11:42.

possibilities people stay home, finish the war in Syria and Iraq,

:11:43.:11:47.

have an agreement with Turkey, have better Turkey border controls, build

:11:48.:11:55.

hot spots in Greece and Greece should take responsibilities so less

:11:56.:11:59.

refugees come, people can stay at home or in their camps there, have

:12:00.:12:03.

to give more European support after the war they can go back and only

:12:04.:12:08.

people come to Europe that will have the right to come because they're

:12:09.:12:13.

running away from war. The real asylum seekers must be afraid for

:12:14.:12:18.

their lives, because of political and religious reasons or whatsoever

:12:19.:12:22.

and then it's do-able. But we have to become better and the same is for

:12:23.:12:27.

northern Africa. Are you disappointed with the fact that

:12:28.:12:29.

European project, Germany, right at the heart of the whole dream of a

:12:30.:12:33.

united Europe, and a crisis like this comes along and everybody

:12:34.:12:37.

scurries away and looks after their own backyard and says you can deal

:12:38.:12:41.

with it, Germany, on your own. You must be utterly distraught at what

:12:42.:12:46.

it says about the rest of Europe, aren't you? No, we are annoyed with

:12:47.:12:51.

some countries, not all of them, Sweden took a lot of

:12:52.:12:56.

responsibilities. They took more per capita than anyone else. We are in

:12:57.:13:00.

the alone in that sense. Enough is enough, we have to do it in a decent

:13:01.:13:06.

way and build fences around every European country. I think that is

:13:07.:13:12.

not a solution. The freedom, the peace in Europe, the chances of the

:13:13.:13:15.

internal market which can only survive with free movement of

:13:16.:13:20.

people, and free movement of goods, is so important for our success

:13:21.:13:25.

story of the last 50, 60 years, we have to deal with that in another

:13:26.:13:30.

way, to look into the causes, solve that, much more money, much more

:13:31.:13:35.

interventions and to look in outside borders where we have plans but not

:13:36.:13:38.

all the countries have implemented it and here you have to put more

:13:39.:13:42.

pressures. What happens if they don't? I understand your plan A. But

:13:43.:13:49.

what if the rest of the people players needed to make that work, if

:13:50.:13:54.

they don't deliver, how long do you think Germany's political stability

:13:55.:13:57.

will take three or 4,000 people arriving a day?

:13:58.:14:03.

We have had some progress, in November and December it was 12,000

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per day, now 2000, 3000. Because of the weather. But it is still too

:14:13.:14:16.

much and we have got to work on that. The next step is the European

:14:17.:14:22.

Council on February the 18th and we have to solve a lot of problems

:14:23.:14:28.

before March when the Mediterranean can be used more. We should not come

:14:29.:14:34.

to the situation when more people die in the Mediterranean, that is

:14:35.:14:41.

inhuman and we need a solution to people in front of the borders, if

:14:42.:14:48.

you look at the Balkans, I'm afraid that might explode again as it is

:14:49.:14:53.

done over the last century several times. And we must start to think

:14:54.:15:01.

about Plan B, as the last chance. Plan A is not successful. Many

:15:02.:15:08.

critics of Angela Merkel and her open-door policy, how dangerous is

:15:09.:15:14.

this for Angela Merkel, who is the de facto leader to some extent of

:15:15.:15:18.

the European Union, how dangerous is it for her? If there is no solution

:15:19.:15:25.

it is dangerous for every responsible person. 12 million

:15:26.:15:36.

refugees in Syria and Iraq, 60 million around the world, they look

:15:37.:15:40.

to Europe because Europe is the most successful part of the world, a

:15:41.:15:44.

success story. Peace, freedom and prosperity. And we have to do our

:15:45.:15:51.

job in that way, people need to be helped and they must get our

:15:52.:15:54.

support, but not the others. And we have to make a better European

:15:55.:15:59.

solution, it was not possible to provide that before the cost member

:16:00.:16:03.

states did not follow us to get this European solution because of debates

:16:04.:16:07.

about national sovereignty. That has got to be changed now. We have the

:16:08.:16:14.

biggest challenge that Europe has faced for the past 50 or 60 years.

:16:15.:16:18.

No one was prepared for that and we've got to find a solution. To

:16:19.:16:25.

destroy free movement, the internal market, would be a win for the

:16:26.:16:30.

terrorists. The enemies of Europe. Because then you destroyed the basis

:16:31.:16:34.

of our success story which we had for our citizens and we should not

:16:35.:16:37.

allow that and so we should push, everyone, including Germany, to find

:16:38.:16:45.

a solution that makes it possible to follow our responsibilities for the

:16:46.:16:51.

lives of people out at the same time not a burden. If you talk about

:16:52.:16:58.

Cologne, there were people from Morocco and Algeria, they have no

:16:59.:17:04.

right to come to the European Union, they're not asylum seekers, not

:17:05.:17:08.

running away from a war. So we develop instruments, hotspots in

:17:09.:17:12.

Greece and Italy and other places where these people can be found out

:17:13.:17:13.

early and sent on. Thank you. Well, Germany is just one country -

:17:14.:17:17.

but across Europe, the refrain that "this can't go on" is

:17:18.:17:20.

becoming a familiar one. We woke up this morning to news that

:17:21.:17:22.

at an Amsterdam meeting yesterday, EU Interior Ministers

:17:23.:17:25.

were contemplating some kind The key issue for them is Greece,

:17:26.:17:27.

which is not enforcing Bluntly, Ministers have asked

:17:28.:17:31.

whether it should be kicked out of Schengen, with the

:17:32.:17:36.

external border moved in. Some kind of emergency

:17:37.:17:42.

reintroduction of borders is allowed for two years under

:17:43.:17:44.

the Schengen Treaty. A little earlier, I spoke

:17:45.:17:45.

to the Greek Migration Minister, I asked him to respond to those

:17:46.:17:56.

accusations that Greece was not doing enough to maintain its

:17:57.:18:02.

borders. Yesterday it was said that the way that Greece has secured the

:18:03.:18:11.

borders is what we would do in the same situation, so there are several

:18:12.:18:16.

wise that they're saying. For us, against my country, and I believe it

:18:17.:18:26.

is not the best way to affirm these big issues. Whatever the rights in

:18:27.:18:29.

the Bronx, many in Western Europe, Northern Europe, and the solution is

:18:30.:18:35.

for Greece no longer to be in the borderless Schengen zone. To kick

:18:36.:18:41.

Greece out of that zone because Greece is not maintaining the

:18:42.:18:44.

external border as they wanted it to be maintained. What is your response

:18:45.:18:50.

to the idea that for an emergency period, Greece is out of the

:18:51.:18:57.

Schengen zone? First of all if someone talks about the history of

:18:58.:19:04.

immigration, they would not leave it, would not think this is

:19:05.:19:13.

something that could occur. Yesterday in this ministerial

:19:14.:19:15.

conference, no one said anything like that. Only the Minister for

:19:16.:19:26.

Belgium who said that we had to push back. This is illegal. And that

:19:27.:19:34.

Greece must be a place where there will be a camp for 400,000.

:19:35.:19:38.

Certainly Belgium has spoken about this idea of having huge camps in

:19:39.:19:44.

Greece. You refer to that. And also push back. The Belgians said to push

:19:45.:19:53.

them back into the sea. The Belgians said go against the law. I do not

:19:54.:19:58.

care if you drown them. I want them pushed back. And probably no one in

:19:59.:20:03.

the conference of ministers accepted that. Just to be clear, the Belgians

:20:04.:20:09.

wanted you to push people into the sea as a solution to the problem?

:20:10.:20:17.

Yes yes. Back to the issue of the camps, there are people who think

:20:18.:20:22.

that one temporary arrangement would be to have very large camps in

:20:23.:20:28.

Greece, where refugees are safe and from where they then go home to

:20:29.:20:35.

Syria after the war, say, is over. Does that have any appeal to you? If

:20:36.:20:45.

you look at history, you will see the only period of history in which

:20:46.:20:52.

there were camps for 400,000 prisoners, it was the period of the

:20:53.:21:03.

Nazis. If you do not see this period there is no other period in history

:21:04.:21:09.

in which there were camps for 400,000 prisoners. And refugees are

:21:10.:21:17.

not prisoners. I wonder who you blame for the difficult situation,

:21:18.:21:23.

that Europe is in customer I do not want to be a part of this lame game.

:21:24.:21:30.

Greece wants to be a part of the solution. -- blame game. To act in

:21:31.:21:36.

Europe in a unilateral way is something, you cannot be a member of

:21:37.:21:46.

Europe, you cannot participate in a programme for agriculture or you

:21:47.:21:49.

take money, not participate in an educational programme because you

:21:50.:21:53.

take money, but when Europe needs you you close the borders. You make

:21:54.:22:01.

prisoners. You ask to drown people. This is not Europe. I cannot tell

:22:02.:22:08.

whether you are sad or angry today? I'm not angry. I am a minister and

:22:09.:22:15.

ministers must not be angry. A minister must keep the door open. We

:22:16.:22:20.

want to find a solution. But we are tied. We have all these people, all

:22:21.:22:29.

the refugees. First of all they pass from us. You have to imagine during

:22:30.:22:35.

the summer, 10,000 per day were passing from an island with 3000

:22:36.:22:41.

population. You have to imagine that the Adjani in the sea, that everyday

:22:42.:22:47.

people collect bodies from the coast. -- they are drowning in the

:22:48.:22:54.

sea. Thank you very much. Ever since the suicide of a young

:22:55.:23:00.

Tory activist in September, the party has been beset

:23:01.:23:02.

by allegations that it failed to act over allegations of bullying

:23:03.:23:05.

in its youth wing - we've reported repeatedly

:23:06.:23:08.

on the scandal on this programme. The party has tried to draw a line

:23:09.:23:12.

under the affair by asking law firm Clifford Chance to

:23:13.:23:16.

conduct an inquiry. But many of those involved remain

:23:17.:23:20.

unconvinced that the party is really Ten potential witnesses have told

:23:21.:23:22.

Newsnight they feel reluctant to give evidence to the inquiry

:23:23.:23:26.

because a former associate of the man at the centre

:23:27.:23:29.

of the scandal - Mark Clarke - has a role in deciding

:23:30.:23:33.

the party's response. For four months his parents have

:23:34.:23:38.

campaigned relentlessly for justice for their son but only now

:23:39.:23:43.

is Alison Johnson ready to speak on camera about what happened

:23:44.:23:47.

to Elliott and the family's We live out in the back water

:23:48.:23:49.

so they probably think, oh well, you know, if we silence

:23:50.:23:55.

them they'll go away quietly Every day just drifts into another

:23:56.:23:58.

when you don't know anything. The student vote is

:23:59.:24:05.

really important... Elliott was found dead on a train

:24:06.:24:08.

track last September. He left a note saying

:24:09.:24:11.

he had been bullied. Rather than being treated

:24:12.:24:15.

as grieving parents, the Johnsons felt like the inquiry

:24:16.:24:18.

into what happened was putting We also heard they wanted

:24:19.:24:20.

to interview my husband and myself individually to find out

:24:21.:24:25.

what our stories were. Well, it's not a story,

:24:26.:24:28.

it's the facts. Mrs Johnson is not the only one

:24:29.:24:30.

who doubts the party can get to the bottom of what

:24:31.:24:39.

happened to her son. He is one of the most senior Tories

:24:40.:24:45.

you have never heard of. As the leader of Tory

:24:46.:24:52.

volunteers across the country, he sits on the board that

:24:53.:24:56.

will consider the official party But for many Semple appears too

:24:57.:24:58.

close to Mark Clarke, the man at the centre

:24:59.:25:02.

of the bullying allegations. Here's Clarke endorsing Semple

:25:03.:25:05.

on a campaign leaflet. Rob understands how

:25:06.:25:16.

to engage with activists His support was

:25:17.:25:18.

crucial to delivering both the road trip 2015

:25:19.:25:20.

and the battle bus 2015 projects. He has the vision, leadership,

:25:21.:25:23.

competence and credibility to do From everything I have seen Mark

:25:24.:25:41.

Clark was effectively acting as campaign manager for Rob Semple.

:25:42.:25:47.

From information I have seen and had sent to me, it would appear that

:25:48.:25:51.

Mark Clarke was heavily lobbying people to vote for Rob Semple. Party

:25:52.:26:02.

chairman Lord Feldman has already recused himself from considering the

:26:03.:26:04.

enquiry and so too has this man, the deputy chairman. But Rob Semple is

:26:05.:26:10.

going nowhere, despite 15 potential witnesses to the enquiry telling the

:26:11.:26:16.

programme wanted to step away from it all together. A number said that

:26:17.:26:20.

his presence makes him when it and to talk to the enquiry. People may

:26:21.:26:24.

think there is a conflict of interest but the fact they think

:26:25.:26:29.

they may be shows why Rob Semple should do the honourable thing and

:26:30.:26:32.

stand down. People think he is a friend or colleague, or that Mark

:26:33.:26:37.

Clarke helped him get in that position. It might be true, it might

:26:38.:26:41.

not, the fact that they think that, it shows that this enquiry will be

:26:42.:26:48.

tainted by his involvement. He should do the decent thing and

:26:49.:26:53.

realise any enquiry conducted by the Conservative Party in which he takes

:26:54.:26:57.

part, it has got to be questioned by the general public at large. People

:26:58.:27:01.

will ask how can a man associated with Mark Clarke be seen to be a

:27:02.:27:05.

person that is overseeing part of the enquiry. But tonight Rob Semple

:27:06.:27:12.

told Newsnight he was not in touch with Mark Clarke and he was staying

:27:13.:27:13.

put. He told us, I'm committed

:27:14.:27:14.

to ensuring that the highest possible standards of

:27:15.:27:16.

behaviour are upheld. I will ensure Clifford Chance's

:27:17.:27:18.

findings will be honoured in full. I urge witnesses to come forward

:27:19.:27:21.

so that the full facts are known. And the party maintained,

:27:22.:27:27.

Rob Semple is not being asked to step down from the board

:27:28.:27:30.

when the report is delivered. Fresh from a general election

:27:31.:27:42.

victory, and with the Labour Party in disarray, on the face of it the

:27:43.:27:46.

Conservative Party is in rude health. Not so says one veteran

:27:47.:27:51.

member of the party. This is a much wider problem the Conservative Party

:27:52.:27:57.

is got, that there is not accountability for those that run

:27:58.:28:01.

the party, little transparency, and no democracy. Without those things

:28:02.:28:07.

you find vested interests have enormous power within the party. And

:28:08.:28:13.

things happen you could never explain except as a result of vested

:28:14.:28:17.

interests. Before the crisis you've seen over the years, how do you rank

:28:18.:28:21.

this? This is the biggest of all, the absolute biggest of all. The

:28:22.:28:26.

party can no longer treat its members with contempt in the way it

:28:27.:28:31.

has done in the past. And which it is still doing. That is how the

:28:32.:28:38.

Johnson feel. Tonight Lord running the enquiry said they were sorry to

:28:39.:28:40.

learn of the families concerned about the proposed separate

:28:41.:28:44.

interviews. But they say they're happy to discuss alternatives.

:28:45.:28:48.

Brazil is taking measures to fight the zika virus and the mosquitoes

:28:49.:28:51.

The disease has so far caused more than 3,000 cases

:28:52.:28:55.

of microcephaly in babies - the condition of shrunken heads

:28:56.:28:57.

But how does the disease affect people as they grow up?

:28:58.:29:02.

One parent from Manaus in the north of the country,

:29:03.:29:05.

Viviane Lima, has two teenage daughters who live

:29:06.:29:08.

Maria Luisa and Ana Vitoria developed it as a result

:29:09.:29:14.

of a genetic condition - NOT zika, but her story gives some

:29:15.:29:18.

insight into the little known disease.

:29:19.:30:17.

Worries over the zika virus and its potential impact this

:30:18.:30:19.

There is concern that it could be transmitted sexually.

:30:20.:30:32.

The evidence of sexual transmission is anecdotal but there are two cases

:30:33.:30:35.

- going back some years - that raise that prospect.

:30:36.:30:37.

Professor Brian Foy who is himself a researcher on insect-borne

:30:38.:30:40.

disease at Colorado State University.

:30:41.:30:48.

And joining me in the studio is Jeremy Farrar, professor

:30:49.:30:51.

of infectious diseases and director of the Wellcome Trust.

:30:52.:30:55.

Brian Foy, you were in Sennegal, you contracted something and went back

:30:56.:31:03.

to Colorado, give us the brief story. Well, this is a story that we

:31:04.:31:09.

published in a periodic journal, my colleagues and I back in 2011 and it

:31:10.:31:16.

documented anonymously a report of two scientists in Senegal brought

:31:17.:31:23.

back viral diseases - one of them transmitted to his wife. A clever

:31:24.:31:29.

science group reporter from Science Magazine read our article and

:31:30.:31:38.

basically, we were doing research in southern Sennegal on malaria and we

:31:39.:31:43.

were getting bitten by a lot of mosquitos, we came down and when we

:31:44.:31:49.

got home with symptoms of diseases and so we got our blood tested. We

:31:50.:31:55.

thought that was it. We September our blood to the CDC and I kept some

:31:56.:32:00.

in my laboratory but soon after my wife came down with the same

:32:01.:32:10.

symptoms of rash and we included that, we took her blood, as well,

:32:11.:32:14.

and sent it to the CDC and it took a long at that time to figure out what

:32:15.:32:19.

was going on, this happened back in tweet-9. Eventually we found out it

:32:20.:32:23.

was the zika virus and we pshed this report and in a lot of the evidence

:32:24.:32:27.

suggests that it was direct transmission, probably sexual

:32:28.:32:29.

transmission. You have got children, I think, correct? They didn't seem

:32:30.:32:36.

to get it? They did not. Are there any other ways, any other theorys,

:32:37.:32:39.

obviously sexual transmission is one. But lots of things, lots of

:32:40.:32:43.

intimate contact you could have had with your wife, maybe she got it

:32:44.:32:47.

from sweat, all sorts of things one could imagine, no? Of course. That's

:32:48.:32:55.

why it's circumstancesal evidence but it's strongly - it suggests

:32:56.:33:04.

sexual transmission. There was other things, there was - none of my

:33:05.:33:08.

children got it and I was wrestling and playing with them as soon as I

:33:09.:33:13.

got home, as well. We deduced from all the lines of reasoning it was

:33:14.:33:18.

probably sexual transmission. That sat Father a long time, in the

:33:19.:33:21.

outbreak before the current outbreak in the South Pacific it looks like

:33:22.:33:27.

another person, another man, they actually isolated the virus from his

:33:28.:33:31.

semen after he became sick with zika. At least two data points

:33:32.:33:35.

suggesting the virus could be transmitted sexually. I did want to

:33:36.:33:39.

ask about that. I think I read in the New York Times that one of your

:33:40.:33:43.

infection symptoms was you had blood in the semen. I am wondering, don't

:33:44.:33:47.

want to get too personal, but whether we can be sure it was semen

:33:48.:33:52.

or blood that was the bodily fluid that was carrying the virus? That's

:33:53.:33:57.

true. Of course, no isolations were done. The only isolation was done

:33:58.:34:02.

with this other man. It is circumstancesal evidence, there is

:34:03.:34:05.

no doubt about it. We do have two data points now and it suggests a

:34:06.:34:09.

likelihood it could happen, the real question is how probable it happens.

:34:10.:34:13.

Certainly in this current large outbreak there is no doubt that

:34:14.:34:17.

mosquitos are primarily transmitting it to most people. You wouldn't have

:34:18.:34:22.

discovered it if you didn't happen to be in a person interested in

:34:23.:34:28.

insect-borne diseases and infection? Ironically, yes. Thank you very

:34:29.:34:35.

much. Jeremy Farrar, do you buy the sexual transmission theory? In

:34:36.:34:40.

Brian's case, absolutely. He's done an amazing job to highlight that

:34:41.:34:44.

potential root of transmission. It wouldn't have happened if he had not

:34:45.:34:46.

been a biologist with an expert in that space. Whether it's in the

:34:47.:34:50.

semen or in the blood that happened, I think the fact that it was

:34:51.:34:53.

sexually transmitted is pretty declare. Do we know much about this

:34:54.:34:59.

blasted thing? It feels like we are still - this is 2008, so it's been

:35:00.:35:04.

around a while. It's been around a long time. We seem ignorant of it.

:35:05.:35:09.

Been around since 1947 I think off the top of my head. It's caused

:35:10.:35:13.

outbreaks in the Pacific Ocean, in Africa, in Asia and of course in

:35:14.:35:17.

south America now. But what's changed is the scale of this

:35:18.:35:21.

outbreak. We have seen an outbreak in Brazil, we think probably 1. 5 to

:35:22.:35:26.

2 million people infected. We have seen it spreading through south

:35:27.:35:30.

America to central America. This is - the virus is carried by mosquitos

:35:31.:35:36.

and the particular mosquito that's carried it is beautifully adapted to

:35:37.:35:42.

the 21st century and it will spread further. If it is sexually

:35:43.:35:48.

transmitted as well, that's awful, isn't it? That's going to

:35:49.:35:52.

particularly affect the group who are most vulnerable and need to

:35:53.:35:55.

protect themselves most, which are women of child-bearing age or are

:35:56.:35:58.

likely to be pregnant. The critical point is how common is the sexually

:35:59.:36:03.

transmission? We have billions of mosquitos beautifully able to

:36:04.:36:06.

transmit this infection and I think that is where the focus has got to

:36:07.:36:09.

be. But as we learn more about this infection and we learn that sexual

:36:10.:36:13.

transmission is potential then we should be humble and accept that we

:36:14.:36:18.

don't know that much about zika and it's critical that research is done

:36:19.:36:24.

so we learn how it's transmitted and how it causes this microcephaly in

:36:25.:36:29.

children. The word vaccine comes in, this is a viral disease, is it

:36:30.:36:33.

something they're going to be able to knock up in a year? Or have they

:36:34.:36:37.

been looking at it for years and said this is a real tough nut to

:36:38.:36:41.

crack? No, we are a long way behind F you compare, let's compare, for

:36:42.:36:45.

instance Ebola, we were fortunate with that, there was a vaccine that

:36:46.:36:49.

was in a freezer at the national institute of health in the United

:36:50.:36:53.

States which many of us could work on and we got a vaccine. Within 12

:36:54.:36:57.

months or so. That's unprecedented. We are not at that stage with zika.

:36:58.:37:03.

We don't have a vaccine, a potential vaccine in somebody's laboratory

:37:04.:37:05.

We don't have a vaccine, a potential freezer or in a company that we

:37:06.:37:07.

could take it through in a year. We are not going to have a vaccine for

:37:08.:37:10.

this in 12 months sdmrchlt we are having to start from scratch

:37:11.:37:14.

basically? Yeah, and we have to think, this is part of a continued

:37:15.:37:18.

pattern of the emergence of new infections for which we have no

:37:19.:37:20.

treatment, we have no vaccine, and we are not able to fully control it.

:37:21.:37:26.

We have to - our research agenda has got to get stronger around this.

:37:27.:37:28.

Thank you both very much. For a long time - since before

:37:29.:37:31.

the death of Steve Jobs - have people predicted that best days

:37:32.:37:34.

of Apple are behind it. After such a run of good form,

:37:35.:37:37.

a fall in fortunes is surely due. This evening, we got the latest

:37:38.:37:40.

results of the company, which showed Apple reporting

:37:41.:37:43.

lower-than-expected iPhone sales It's a struggle to grow

:37:44.:37:45.

at the old pace, once And other companies can

:37:46.:37:57.

make them just as well. Joining me from New York

:37:58.:38:01.

is the Journalism professor and technology

:38:02.:38:03.

commentator, Jeff Jarvis. Any clue in these

:38:04.:38:15.

that Apple's best days are behind it? One never wants to predict that

:38:16.:38:20.

but since the death of Steve Jobs we haven't seen any great surprise and

:38:21.:38:23.

the sales of iPhones are now flat. There are a total of one billion

:38:24.:38:28.

Apple devices in the world and 1. 4 billion android devices in the

:38:29.:38:31.

world. I don't know where Apple goes next is the problem. I love my

:38:32.:38:35.

smartphone too and I do buy them regularly but there hasn't been a

:38:36.:38:37.

great surprise in the entire industry lately. We are not going to

:38:38.:38:41.

have two or three each, clearly that does limit that market. Let's talk

:38:42.:38:45.

about some of the other products around. Do you have an opinion on

:38:46.:38:50.

the watch? Clearly the watch hasn't been a breakthrough like the tablet

:38:51.:38:58.

and the iPad and iPhone? I have a Google watch and it's nice to have

:38:59.:39:03.

and I enjoy it. Is it a life-changer? Absolutely not. Is it

:39:04.:39:07.

a necessity? No. That's not going to be it. What about the car? Google

:39:08.:39:11.

obviously are more public about what they're doing on the car. Apple

:39:12.:39:16.

famously are secretive on it but are clearly working on a car, everyone

:39:17.:39:21.

assumes they are. Is that going to be at some point the great new

:39:22.:39:27.

thing? The car industry is hard, just ask the entire nation of

:39:28.:39:30.

America how we have fared lately. There's going to be plenty of

:39:31.:39:33.

competition. The German auto industry is hot on to this, the

:39:34.:39:38.

Japanese auto industry will be, as well. Google has made hints. I think

:39:39.:39:44.

the technology is going to be trying to reinvent the operating system of

:39:45.:39:49.

the car. It's now a six-year design cycle. Apple could make a difference

:39:50.:39:54.

there. Is that an easy business, no. Is it quick, no. Who knows. There is

:39:55.:40:02.

a phrase that says if you are supersuccessful, ultimately, you

:40:03.:40:05.

tend to gravitate back to average again. You have seen all these

:40:06.:40:10.

fantastic companies in the world that have been unassailable and they

:40:11.:40:14.

find themselves looking pretty normal. At some point Apple maybe

:40:15.:40:19.

our expectations have to be that Apple will drift down. It will just

:40:20.:40:23.

have to effectively become more normal as a company as time passes?

:40:24.:40:28.

Well, you are right, it is that horrible issue of capitalism always

:40:29.:40:32.

expecting more and more and more, like a greedy parent wanting the kid

:40:33.:40:38.

to do better in school. So, January al's performance is amazing and

:40:39.:40:41.

historic profit -- Apple. It cannot keep up with that level of growth

:40:42.:40:44.

and can in the keep up without diversity. Google is now into many

:40:45.:40:49.

areas. Apple is, I mean, Amazon rather is huge, not only in the

:40:50.:40:55.

sales but also in the cloud. But Apple is pretty much a one-note

:40:56.:41:00.

wonder right now which is phones and devices, it hasn't been big on

:41:01.:41:04.

social, in the cloud, it hasn't been big on entertainment, even though

:41:05.:41:11.

it's a huge distributor, compare to to Amazon or Netflix. They can't use

:41:12.:41:16.

their huge cash flow to buy things. I am in the sure what I would do if

:41:17.:41:20.

I were Cook. Thank you very much indeed.

:41:21.:41:25.

Plenty more wind and rain in the forecast I am afraid. A messy start

:41:26.:41:40.

to the day with strong winds across parts of England and Wales and that

:41:41.:41:44.

will linger all day across southern counties. Improving

:41:45.:41:45.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Will migration break Europe's open borders treaty? Plus Tory bullying in its youth wing, is the Zika virus sexually transmitted, and is Apple on the slide?


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