26/01/2016 Newsnight


Investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Will migration break Europe's open borders treaty? Plus Tory bullying in its youth wing.

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Nations apparently ready to trample over treaties in their struggle


And, at the heart of it, Germany divided.


Fingers are being pointed at Greece - again.


I expect from spring on the figures will go up again and we will be


facing two million and I think this is not an option, not even for Mrs


Merkel. Fingers are being pointed


at Greece - again. Could it be kicked out


of the borderless Schengen zone? We'll hear the response


of the Greek Migration Minister. A new worry about the zika virus


that harms the unborn. We'll hear from a researcher


into insect-borne disease who says And, Apple - how can they revive


their plateauing iphone sales? They've started talking about what


he called switch, people came on board with an android phone and


switched over. In one respect Europe can be proud -


it's a continent so pleasant, that a lot of people


want to live in it. 45,000 people have arrived


in Greece this year. What the continent cannot be proud


of is the shambolic response European Interior Ministers met


in Amsterdam yesterday, with proposals that potentially chip


away at the Schengen Treaty, creating a borderless


zone of 26 countries. Now, amazingly, the same two


countries at the centre of the euro crisis last summer,


are at the centre of this one. Greece is blamed for not enforcing


the external EU border. But Germany is doing


some of the blaming, as well as agonising over the wisdom


of its open door policy. Daily, twice an hour,


the police assemble And it is here in the cold


of a Bavarian winter, the multitudes step out


into their promised land. Among those being registered,


the Ahools from Aleppo. Two sisters, their brother,


and five children under eight. They have braved the sea from Greece


and the frozen Balkans. Here the single men also


are separated from groups and hidden This winter was meant to be


a time when the numbers Our area in Rosenheim,


yesterday we had 900 refugees. But we could say the last weeks,


up from 1000, to 2000 per day. Add those reaching other centres


in Bavaria, and officials told us it At that rate, Germany will break


last year's total of 1.1 million A few men were separated,


papers suggested they had already While others went on to refugee


hostels and the unlucky few were taken off for


probable deportation. In the vastness of the Bavarian


mountains certain things are becoming chillingly


clear for Germany. Notably the failure


to reach European solutions and the implications


for this country. In this remote resort,


Wildbad Kreuth, the CSU, the Bavarian branch


of Angela Merkel's party, And they were in a state of revolt


over their leader's So we need a quick solution


and a quick solution means that we have to consider border


controls at national level, that we have to recheck immigrants


that come to Bavaria in a very high And we want to make clear that this


is just not manageable. How long has it got,


do you think, before Germany imposes full border controls and takes


matters into its own hand? I think it is a question of days


or weeks, but not months. A German unilateral solution


with untold consequences In an attempt to staunch more


trouble, Mrs Merkel came to Kreuth. Her emphasis, even now,


is one of joint solutions But the record so far,


and actions of neighbours in taking unilateral steps, suggests Germany


is reaching a moment of decision. Frankly, I do not really see


the signals in Brussels now. Facts are being created


on the ground, we're seeing Austria Potentially then closing


its borders. Because that is what


it implicitly means. So she certainly is seriously


running out of time. Hundreds of miles to the north,


the Bavarian situation is making In an attempt to ease the tensions,


several Berlin museums have signed up to a programme,


using refugees as guides. Educating both the Arab-speaking


new arrivals and German visitors. Salma Jreige came 18


months ago from Syria. She's hoping Chancellor Merkel


doesn't abandon her asylum policy. Even though she has a lot


of opponents right now who don't agree with this precise


policy with refugees, but she's carrying on and at


the same time there are a lot of people who are encouraging her


and the people, the refugees themselves, really appreciate this


because they're sensing that Germany is giving them more opportunities


than other European countries are. So I say carry on and


as in Arabic we say.. But in Berlin, and elsewhere,


the new year's events in Cologne In the district of Landshut


in Bavaria the local mayor has He recently packed a bus full


of refugees off to Berlin because he said there's


no more room here. With dozens more arriving each week,


the mayor says he fears social Mr Dreier directed us to this place,


one of several centres for hundreds So, back in October they ran out


of space in proper hostels and they've just had to open places


like this up one after the other, disused retail warehouses,


a school's being considered in another case and they've had 180


people in here since October. Cooped up here for months,


little wonder boredom People told us they didn't feel


safe, that there were frequent fights between different


sectarian groups. Families, meanwhile,


tried to maintain some semblance And here, too, we found even


Syrian refugees urging the German Government


to find a plan B. This is one of hundreds of temporary


refuges across Germany and with 3,000-plus new arrivals


daily, even Merkel loyalists I expect that from spring


on the figures will go up again and then we will be facing two


million and I think this is not Plan B would be much more popular,


which would be really to reject I know also that we are capable


of doing it because the federal police and the army would be capable


to secure the border. And they would just


have to be triggered. The German Government still hopes


to push its neighbours into doing more but in Bavaria a clear


picture is emerging. People are still arriving in numbers


that local authorities It's a situation fraught with risk


for the European project Joining me now from Brussels


is the German MEP Elmar Brok, a firm supporter of Angela Merkel


and the Chairman of the European Parliament Committee


on Foreign Affairs. Evening to you. I don't know if you


listened to that. If the rest of Europe doesn't join Germany in


trying to shoulder the number of people coming in, do you think


Germany can go on receiving this number? Germany does not want to go


on, Mrs Merkel doesn't want to go on. We have to look into


possibilities people stay home, finish the war in Syria and Iraq,


have an agreement with Turkey, have better Turkey border controls, build


hot spots in Greece and Greece should take responsibilities so less


refugees come, people can stay at home or in their camps there, have


to give more European support after the war they can go back and only


people come to Europe that will have the right to come because they're


running away from war. The real asylum seekers must be afraid for


their lives, because of political and religious reasons or whatsoever


and then it's do-able. But we have to become better and the same is for


northern Africa. Are you disappointed with the fact that


European project, Germany, right at the heart of the whole dream of a


united Europe, and a crisis like this comes along and everybody


scurries away and looks after their own backyard and says you can deal


with it, Germany, on your own. You must be utterly distraught at what


it says about the rest of Europe, aren't you? No, we are annoyed with


some countries, not all of them, Sweden took a lot of


responsibilities. They took more per capita than anyone else. We are in


the alone in that sense. Enough is enough, we have to do it in a decent


way and build fences around every European country. I think that is


not a solution. The freedom, the peace in Europe, the chances of the


internal market which can only survive with free movement of


people, and free movement of goods, is so important for our success


story of the last 50, 60 years, we have to deal with that in another


way, to look into the causes, solve that, much more money, much more


interventions and to look in outside borders where we have plans but not


all the countries have implemented it and here you have to put more


pressures. What happens if they don't? I understand your plan A. But


what if the rest of the people players needed to make that work, if


they don't deliver, how long do you think Germany's political stability


will take three or 4,000 people arriving a day?


We have had some progress, in November and December it was 12,000


per day, now 2000, 3000. Because of the weather. But it is still too


much and we have got to work on that. The next step is the European


Council on February the 18th and we have to solve a lot of problems


before March when the Mediterranean can be used more. We should not come


to the situation when more people die in the Mediterranean, that is


inhuman and we need a solution to people in front of the borders, if


you look at the Balkans, I'm afraid that might explode again as it is


done over the last century several times. And we must start to think


about Plan B, as the last chance. Plan A is not successful. Many


critics of Angela Merkel and her open-door policy, how dangerous is


this for Angela Merkel, who is the de facto leader to some extent of


the European Union, how dangerous is it for her? If there is no solution


it is dangerous for every responsible person. 12 million


refugees in Syria and Iraq, 60 million around the world, they look


to Europe because Europe is the most successful part of the world, a


success story. Peace, freedom and prosperity. And we have to do our


job in that way, people need to be helped and they must get our


support, but not the others. And we have to make a better European


solution, it was not possible to provide that before the cost member


states did not follow us to get this European solution because of debates


about national sovereignty. That has got to be changed now. We have the


biggest challenge that Europe has faced for the past 50 or 60 years.


No one was prepared for that and we've got to find a solution. To


destroy free movement, the internal market, would be a win for the


terrorists. The enemies of Europe. Because then you destroyed the basis


of our success story which we had for our citizens and we should not


allow that and so we should push, everyone, including Germany, to find


a solution that makes it possible to follow our responsibilities for the


lives of people out at the same time not a burden. If you talk about


Cologne, there were people from Morocco and Algeria, they have no


right to come to the European Union, they're not asylum seekers, not


running away from a war. So we develop instruments, hotspots in


Greece and Italy and other places where these people can be found out


early and sent on. Thank you. Well, Germany is just one country -


but across Europe, the refrain that "this can't go on" is


becoming a familiar one. We woke up this morning to news that


at an Amsterdam meeting yesterday, EU Interior Ministers


were contemplating some kind The key issue for them is Greece,


which is not enforcing Bluntly, Ministers have asked


whether it should be kicked out of Schengen, with the


external border moved in. Some kind of emergency


reintroduction of borders is allowed for two years under


the Schengen Treaty. A little earlier, I spoke


to the Greek Migration Minister, I asked him to respond to those


accusations that Greece was not doing enough to maintain its


borders. Yesterday it was said that the way that Greece has secured the


borders is what we would do in the same situation, so there are several


wise that they're saying. For us, against my country, and I believe it


is not the best way to affirm these big issues. Whatever the rights in


the Bronx, many in Western Europe, Northern Europe, and the solution is


for Greece no longer to be in the borderless Schengen zone. To kick


Greece out of that zone because Greece is not maintaining the


external border as they wanted it to be maintained. What is your response


to the idea that for an emergency period, Greece is out of the


Schengen zone? First of all if someone talks about the history of


immigration, they would not leave it, would not think this is


something that could occur. Yesterday in this ministerial


conference, no one said anything like that. Only the Minister for


Belgium who said that we had to push back. This is illegal. And that


Greece must be a place where there will be a camp for 400,000.


Certainly Belgium has spoken about this idea of having huge camps in


Greece. You refer to that. And also push back. The Belgians said to push


them back into the sea. The Belgians said go against the law. I do not


care if you drown them. I want them pushed back. And probably no one in


the conference of ministers accepted that. Just to be clear, the Belgians


wanted you to push people into the sea as a solution to the problem?


Yes yes. Back to the issue of the camps, there are people who think


that one temporary arrangement would be to have very large camps in


Greece, where refugees are safe and from where they then go home to


Syria after the war, say, is over. Does that have any appeal to you? If


you look at history, you will see the only period of history in which


there were camps for 400,000 prisoners, it was the period of the


Nazis. If you do not see this period there is no other period in history


in which there were camps for 400,000 prisoners. And refugees are


not prisoners. I wonder who you blame for the difficult situation,


that Europe is in customer I do not want to be a part of this lame game.


Greece wants to be a part of the solution. -- blame game. To act in


Europe in a unilateral way is something, you cannot be a member of


Europe, you cannot participate in a programme for agriculture or you


take money, not participate in an educational programme because you


take money, but when Europe needs you you close the borders. You make


prisoners. You ask to drown people. This is not Europe. I cannot tell


whether you are sad or angry today? I'm not angry. I am a minister and


ministers must not be angry. A minister must keep the door open. We


want to find a solution. But we are tied. We have all these people, all


the refugees. First of all they pass from us. You have to imagine during


the summer, 10,000 per day were passing from an island with 3000


population. You have to imagine that the Adjani in the sea, that everyday


people collect bodies from the coast. -- they are drowning in the


sea. Thank you very much. Ever since the suicide of a young


Tory activist in September, the party has been beset


by allegations that it failed to act over allegations of bullying


in its youth wing - we've reported repeatedly


on the scandal on this programme. The party has tried to draw a line


under the affair by asking law firm Clifford Chance to


conduct an inquiry. But many of those involved remain


unconvinced that the party is really Ten potential witnesses have told


Newsnight they feel reluctant to give evidence to the inquiry


because a former associate of the man at the centre


of the scandal - Mark Clarke - has a role in deciding


the party's response. For four months his parents have


campaigned relentlessly for justice for their son but only now


is Alison Johnson ready to speak on camera about what happened


to Elliott and the family's We live out in the back water


so they probably think, oh well, you know, if we silence


them they'll go away quietly Every day just drifts into another


when you don't know anything. The student vote is


really important... Elliott was found dead on a train


track last September. He left a note saying


he had been bullied. Rather than being treated


as grieving parents, the Johnsons felt like the inquiry


into what happened was putting We also heard they wanted


to interview my husband and myself individually to find out


what our stories were. Well, it's not a story,


it's the facts. Mrs Johnson is not the only one


who doubts the party can get to the bottom of what


happened to her son. He is one of the most senior Tories


you have never heard of. As the leader of Tory


volunteers across the country, he sits on the board that


will consider the official party But for many Semple appears too


close to Mark Clarke, the man at the centre


of the bullying allegations. Here's Clarke endorsing Semple


on a campaign leaflet. Rob understands how


to engage with activists His support was


crucial to delivering both the road trip 2015


and the battle bus 2015 projects. He has the vision, leadership,


competence and credibility to do From everything I have seen Mark


Clark was effectively acting as campaign manager for Rob Semple.


From information I have seen and had sent to me, it would appear that


Mark Clarke was heavily lobbying people to vote for Rob Semple. Party


chairman Lord Feldman has already recused himself from considering the


enquiry and so too has this man, the deputy chairman. But Rob Semple is


going nowhere, despite 15 potential witnesses to the enquiry telling the


programme wanted to step away from it all together. A number said that


his presence makes him when it and to talk to the enquiry. People may


think there is a conflict of interest but the fact they think


they may be shows why Rob Semple should do the honourable thing and


stand down. People think he is a friend or colleague, or that Mark


Clarke helped him get in that position. It might be true, it might


not, the fact that they think that, it shows that this enquiry will be


tainted by his involvement. He should do the decent thing and


realise any enquiry conducted by the Conservative Party in which he takes


part, it has got to be questioned by the general public at large. People


will ask how can a man associated with Mark Clarke be seen to be a


person that is overseeing part of the enquiry. But tonight Rob Semple


told Newsnight he was not in touch with Mark Clarke and he was staying


put. He told us, I'm committed


to ensuring that the highest possible standards of


behaviour are upheld. I will ensure Clifford Chance's


findings will be honoured in full. I urge witnesses to come forward


so that the full facts are known. And the party maintained,


Rob Semple is not being asked to step down from the board


when the report is delivered. Fresh from a general election


victory, and with the Labour Party in disarray, on the face of it the


Conservative Party is in rude health. Not so says one veteran


member of the party. This is a much wider problem the Conservative Party


is got, that there is not accountability for those that run


the party, little transparency, and no democracy. Without those things


you find vested interests have enormous power within the party. And


things happen you could never explain except as a result of vested


interests. Before the crisis you've seen over the years, how do you rank


this? This is the biggest of all, the absolute biggest of all. The


party can no longer treat its members with contempt in the way it


has done in the past. And which it is still doing. That is how the


Johnson feel. Tonight Lord running the enquiry said they were sorry to


learn of the families concerned about the proposed separate


interviews. But they say they're happy to discuss alternatives.


Brazil is taking measures to fight the zika virus and the mosquitoes


The disease has so far caused more than 3,000 cases


of microcephaly in babies - the condition of shrunken heads


But how does the disease affect people as they grow up?


One parent from Manaus in the north of the country,


Viviane Lima, has two teenage daughters who live


Maria Luisa and Ana Vitoria developed it as a result


of a genetic condition - NOT zika, but her story gives some


insight into the little known disease.


Worries over the zika virus and its potential impact this


There is concern that it could be transmitted sexually.


The evidence of sexual transmission is anecdotal but there are two cases


- going back some years - that raise that prospect.


Professor Brian Foy who is himself a researcher on insect-borne


disease at Colorado State University.


And joining me in the studio is Jeremy Farrar, professor


of infectious diseases and director of the Wellcome Trust.


Brian Foy, you were in Sennegal, you contracted something and went back


to Colorado, give us the brief story. Well, this is a story that we


published in a periodic journal, my colleagues and I back in 2011 and it


documented anonymously a report of two scientists in Senegal brought


back viral diseases - one of them transmitted to his wife. A clever


science group reporter from Science Magazine read our article and


basically, we were doing research in southern Sennegal on malaria and we


were getting bitten by a lot of mosquitos, we came down and when we


got home with symptoms of diseases and so we got our blood tested. We


thought that was it. We September our blood to the CDC and I kept some


in my laboratory but soon after my wife came down with the same


symptoms of rash and we included that, we took her blood, as well,


and sent it to the CDC and it took a long at that time to figure out what


was going on, this happened back in tweet-9. Eventually we found out it


was the zika virus and we pshed this report and in a lot of the evidence


suggests that it was direct transmission, probably sexual


transmission. You have got children, I think, correct? They didn't seem


to get it? They did not. Are there any other ways, any other theorys,


obviously sexual transmission is one. But lots of things, lots of


intimate contact you could have had with your wife, maybe she got it


from sweat, all sorts of things one could imagine, no? Of course. That's


why it's circumstancesal evidence but it's strongly - it suggests


sexual transmission. There was other things, there was - none of my


children got it and I was wrestling and playing with them as soon as I


got home, as well. We deduced from all the lines of reasoning it was


probably sexual transmission. That sat Father a long time, in the


outbreak before the current outbreak in the South Pacific it looks like


another person, another man, they actually isolated the virus from his


semen after he became sick with zika. At least two data points


suggesting the virus could be transmitted sexually. I did want to


ask about that. I think I read in the New York Times that one of your


infection symptoms was you had blood in the semen. I am wondering, don't


want to get too personal, but whether we can be sure it was semen


or blood that was the bodily fluid that was carrying the virus? That's


true. Of course, no isolations were done. The only isolation was done


with this other man. It is circumstancesal evidence, there is


no doubt about it. We do have two data points now and it suggests a


likelihood it could happen, the real question is how probable it happens.


Certainly in this current large outbreak there is no doubt that


mosquitos are primarily transmitting it to most people. You wouldn't have


discovered it if you didn't happen to be in a person interested in


insect-borne diseases and infection? Ironically, yes. Thank you very


much. Jeremy Farrar, do you buy the sexual transmission theory? In


Brian's case, absolutely. He's done an amazing job to highlight that


potential root of transmission. It wouldn't have happened if he had not


been a biologist with an expert in that space. Whether it's in the


semen or in the blood that happened, I think the fact that it was


sexually transmitted is pretty declare. Do we know much about this


blasted thing? It feels like we are still - this is 2008, so it's been


around a while. It's been around a long time. We seem ignorant of it.


Been around since 1947 I think off the top of my head. It's caused


outbreaks in the Pacific Ocean, in Africa, in Asia and of course in


south America now. But what's changed is the scale of this


outbreak. We have seen an outbreak in Brazil, we think probably 1. 5 to


2 million people infected. We have seen it spreading through south


America to central America. This is - the virus is carried by mosquitos


and the particular mosquito that's carried it is beautifully adapted to


the 21st century and it will spread further. If it is sexually


transmitted as well, that's awful, isn't it? That's going to


particularly affect the group who are most vulnerable and need to


protect themselves most, which are women of child-bearing age or are


likely to be pregnant. The critical point is how common is the sexually


transmission? We have billions of mosquitos beautifully able to


transmit this infection and I think that is where the focus has got to


be. But as we learn more about this infection and we learn that sexual


transmission is potential then we should be humble and accept that we


don't know that much about zika and it's critical that research is done


so we learn how it's transmitted and how it causes this microcephaly in


children. The word vaccine comes in, this is a viral disease, is it


something they're going to be able to knock up in a year? Or have they


been looking at it for years and said this is a real tough nut to


crack? No, we are a long way behind F you compare, let's compare, for


instance Ebola, we were fortunate with that, there was a vaccine that


was in a freezer at the national institute of health in the United


States which many of us could work on and we got a vaccine. Within 12


months or so. That's unprecedented. We are not at that stage with zika.


We don't have a vaccine, a potential vaccine in somebody's laboratory


We don't have a vaccine, a potential freezer or in a company that we


could take it through in a year. We are not going to have a vaccine for


this in 12 months sdmrchlt we are having to start from scratch


basically? Yeah, and we have to think, this is part of a continued


pattern of the emergence of new infections for which we have no


treatment, we have no vaccine, and we are not able to fully control it.


We have to - our research agenda has got to get stronger around this.


Thank you both very much. For a long time - since before


the death of Steve Jobs - have people predicted that best days


of Apple are behind it. After such a run of good form,


a fall in fortunes is surely due. This evening, we got the latest


results of the company, which showed Apple reporting


lower-than-expected iPhone sales It's a struggle to grow


at the old pace, once And other companies can


make them just as well. Joining me from New York


is the Journalism professor and technology


commentator, Jeff Jarvis. Any clue in these


that Apple's best days are behind it? One never wants to predict that


but since the death of Steve Jobs we haven't seen any great surprise and


the sales of iPhones are now flat. There are a total of one billion


Apple devices in the world and 1. 4 billion android devices in the


world. I don't know where Apple goes next is the problem. I love my


smartphone too and I do buy them regularly but there hasn't been a


great surprise in the entire industry lately. We are not going to


have two or three each, clearly that does limit that market. Let's talk


about some of the other products around. Do you have an opinion on


the watch? Clearly the watch hasn't been a breakthrough like the tablet


and the iPad and iPhone? I have a Google watch and it's nice to have


and I enjoy it. Is it a life-changer? Absolutely not. Is it


a necessity? No. That's not going to be it. What about the car? Google


obviously are more public about what they're doing on the car. Apple


famously are secretive on it but are clearly working on a car, everyone


assumes they are. Is that going to be at some point the great new


thing? The car industry is hard, just ask the entire nation of


America how we have fared lately. There's going to be plenty of


competition. The German auto industry is hot on to this, the


Japanese auto industry will be, as well. Google has made hints. I think


the technology is going to be trying to reinvent the operating system of


the car. It's now a six-year design cycle. Apple could make a difference


there. Is that an easy business, no. Is it quick, no. Who knows. There is


a phrase that says if you are supersuccessful, ultimately, you


tend to gravitate back to average again. You have seen all these


fantastic companies in the world that have been unassailable and they


find themselves looking pretty normal. At some point Apple maybe


our expectations have to be that Apple will drift down. It will just


have to effectively become more normal as a company as time passes?


Well, you are right, it is that horrible issue of capitalism always


expecting more and more and more, like a greedy parent wanting the kid


to do better in school. So, January al's performance is amazing and


historic profit -- Apple. It cannot keep up with that level of growth


and can in the keep up without diversity. Google is now into many


areas. Apple is, I mean, Amazon rather is huge, not only in the


sales but also in the cloud. But Apple is pretty much a one-note


wonder right now which is phones and devices, it hasn't been big on


social, in the cloud, it hasn't been big on entertainment, even though


it's a huge distributor, compare to to Amazon or Netflix. They can't use


their huge cash flow to buy things. I am in the sure what I would do if


I were Cook. Thank you very much indeed.


Plenty more wind and rain in the forecast I am afraid. A messy start


to the day with strong winds across parts of England and Wales and that


will linger all day across southern counties. Improving


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Will migration break Europe's open borders treaty? Plus Tory bullying in its youth wing, is the Zika virus sexually transmitted, and is Apple on the slide?

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