Browse content similar to 02/02/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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This is really not anywhere near what I had hoped. Even if the full | :00:07. | :00:25. | |
baskets at the UN were res lurkts clear, and what we were asking for | :00:26. | :00:31. | |
it might be a step in the right direction, but it isn't that. | :00:32. | :00:34. | |
Mr Cameron talks up his renegotiation while his party | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
Perhaps it was never going to change people's minds | :00:37. | :00:39. | |
We'll work out what has and what has not been achieved. | :00:40. | :00:43. | |
And the Europe Minister does his best to sell | :00:44. | :00:45. | |
After a tie to the last percentage point between Hillary Clinton and | :00:46. | :00:53. | |
Bernie Sanders we look at what's happening on the left of American | :00:54. | :00:56. | |
politics Up till now it's been | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
spread by mosquitoes. Tonight, reports of the first | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
confirmed US case transmitted So, a draft deal with the EU | :01:05. | :01:06. | |
has been published. We've spent a long time | :01:07. | :01:16. | |
getting here, but have about getting this | :01:17. | :01:26. | |
relationship right. I don't believe leaving the EU | :01:27. | :01:32. | |
would be best for Britain, but nor do I believe that voting | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
to preserve the exact status quo We will give the British people | :01:36. | :01:39. | |
a referendum with a very simple To stay in the European Union | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
on these new terms or to We are saying the Conservatives | :01:45. | :01:51. | |
are the largest party. There will be ups and downs, | :01:52. | :02:02. | |
you will hear one day this is possible, the next day | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
something else is impossible. But one thing throughout | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
all of this will be constant EU migrants should have a job offer | :02:10. | :02:17. | |
before they come here. UK taxpayers will not | :02:18. | :02:24. | |
support them if they don't. And once they are in work, | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
they won't get benefits or social housing from Britain | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
unless they have been I think strong, determined, | :02:31. | :02:32. | |
patient negotiation has achieved Well, it is today that we saw | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
the outline of the result Mr Cameron has certainly | :02:39. | :02:49. | |
lowered his aspirations since 2013, when he embarked on the path | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
to a referendum and made some lavish promises about what | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
he might achieve. Predictably, people involved | :02:56. | :02:58. | |
in officially campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
are enthusiastic about the package. A sign, they say, of how | :03:03. | :03:05. | |
far our partners will bend Those against our membership | :03:06. | :03:07. | |
dismiss it as derisory. But the funny thing is that even | :03:08. | :03:13. | |
many EU supporters - people on Cameron's side - | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
also dismiss it as far Do you want to make | :03:17. | :03:18. | |
up your own mind? Today we got the skeleton | :03:19. | :03:24. | |
of a deal from Brussels. So we know roughly what | :03:25. | :03:32. | |
renegotiation will look like and that the referendum looks | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
increasingly likely to fall on June Sometimes people say | :03:37. | :03:38. | |
to me, if you weren't in the European Union, | :03:39. | :03:44. | |
would you opt to join And today I can give | :03:45. | :03:46. | |
a very clear answer. If I could get these terms | :03:47. | :03:49. | |
for British membership, I sure would opt in to be a member | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
of the European Union because these And they're different | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
to what other countries have. Now the Prime Minister | :03:58. | :04:02. | |
wants to campaign to remain within the European Union | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
and so for him the renegotiation First of all it is | :04:06. | :04:08. | |
changing the EU into For example through changes | :04:09. | :04:16. | |
to migration rules. Secondly, though, it is | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
demonstrating that Britain has influence that it can | :04:20. | :04:21. | |
use to change the EU, that Europe isn't something | :04:22. | :04:23. | |
that is just done to us. The problem for him, | :04:24. | :04:25. | |
though, is that these changes have to be big enough | :04:26. | :04:27. | |
to sell both of those ideas. The draft proposes that the Eurozone | :04:28. | :04:33. | |
nations shouldn't be able So it has a mechanism | :04:34. | :04:35. | |
to respect the competences, rights and obligations of member | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
states whose currency They also say that treaty references | :04:41. | :04:42. | |
to an ever closer union should not be used to support an extensive | :04:43. | :04:48. | |
interpretation of the competences be used to support an extensive | :04:49. | :04:54. | |
interpretation of the competencies If a bit more than half of EU | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
Parliaments, in the jargon, 55% of the votes allocated | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
to national parliaments, pass a vote against the measure, | :05:03. | :05:04. | |
they can block European This expert from | :05:05. | :05:06. | |
a think tank close to the Prime Minister thinks those | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
provisions are significant, I think when it comes | :05:10. | :05:11. | |
to the red card for national parliaments, | :05:12. | :05:15. | |
that is more of a symbolic victory It is the first time that national | :05:16. | :05:17. | |
parliaments have a binding assay It is the first time that national | :05:18. | :05:34. | |
parliaments have a binding say But the threshold of 55% of national | :05:35. | :05:37. | |
parliaments to activate the red card Now of course some people | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
said to me, don't... So can the Prime Minister | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
sell this to his Just kick over the table, | :05:45. | :05:46. | |
stormed out of the room, and wait until they | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
call you back in. Well, the PM has asked for something | :05:50. | :05:51. | |
which to me was critical. Which is no ever closer | :05:52. | :05:54. | |
union for Great Britain. The response in the | :05:55. | :05:56. | |
document is pretty It says they understand | :05:57. | :05:58. | |
that that is what we are asking for and when they get | :05:59. | :06:02. | |
to any future treaty whoever is running the member states then, | :06:03. | :06:05. | |
so not the people who were there today, will be deciding this, | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
will have a look at it and see if they can include it | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
in a future treaty. On immigration, they propose | :06:12. | :06:13. | |
allowing bans of EU citizens who represent a genuine | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
and serious threat. Even in the absence | :06:16. | :06:17. | |
of a criminal conviction. They also propose an emergency brake | :06:18. | :06:19. | |
on migration, to be used when there is an inflow of workers | :06:20. | :06:22. | |
from other member states of an exceptional magnitude over | :06:23. | :06:24. | |
an extended period of time. That would not be a ban on coming | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
here, but new EU workers would not get full access to | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
benefits for a bit. They would start with an initial, | :06:31. | :06:32. | |
complete exclusion from them, but then get gradually increasing | :06:33. | :06:35. | |
access to full benefit entitlements The paper also proposes trimming | :06:36. | :06:37. | |
the children's benefits paid out to families where the | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
child lives abroad. These migration proposals | :06:42. | :06:44. | |
caused a bit of a problem Last year at the election | :06:45. | :06:47. | |
he pledged that people who had been working here for fewer | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
than four years shouldn't be He also pledged that people whose | :06:52. | :06:54. | |
children are abroad shouldn't get So you can understand why some | :06:55. | :07:00. | |
people will feel their expectations I think that is slightly | :07:01. | :07:07. | |
unfair and people should recognise how | :07:08. | :07:22. | |
far we have come. First of all the ability | :07:23. | :07:24. | |
to distinguish between UK nationals and EU nationals who are first | :07:25. | :07:26. | |
arriving and denied access to the welfare system | :07:27. | :07:28. | |
for a period of time. And I think when it comes | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
to the UK universal system, although it may not be a ban | :07:32. | :07:34. | |
for four years outright, denying benefits for a certain | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
period of time could change people's attitudes to whether they take | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
the decision to come to the UK. The emergency brake | :07:41. | :07:43. | |
in of itself is a It is the EU telling us | :07:44. | :07:44. | |
when we might be allowed So you're driving a car, | :07:45. | :07:50. | |
you can see a car crash at the head. You're not allowed to put | :07:51. | :07:54. | |
your foot on the brake. But you're not allowed to hold | :07:55. | :07:57. | |
the steering wheel either. So there are substantive | :07:58. | :08:00. | |
changes in there but it is not what the Tory manifesto | :08:01. | :08:02. | |
promised and it is not going to be in the bag until an EU meeting that | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
ends on February the 19th. Earlier this evening I spoke | :08:06. | :08:09. | |
to the Europe Minister, Now, the Prime Mininster said | :08:10. | :08:11. | |
earlier, "hand on heart", he'd achieved what he said | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
he would in the Tory party So, could Mr Lidington | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
help clarify that? I asked whether the draft deal met | :08:18. | :08:28. | |
the manifesto's commitment to require EU migrants to leave Britain | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
if they hadn't found a job here in six months. It is already the | :08:35. | :08:38. | |
position under European law that you are allowed to travel freely to work | :08:39. | :08:42. | |
but you are not allowed to hang on if you have no prospect of work. So | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
that's already a provision. If this is about making sure that we are | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
able to deliver on that. But they'll be required to leave. So even if | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
they've got their own resources, because they won't be Gesting | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
benefits. They will be deported or give a notice... This is a matters | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
for the Immigration Service's arrangements for dealing with people | :09:05. | :09:08. | |
who've, who are here without a legal right to be here. Obviously if | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
somebody has their own resources it is conceivable that they might | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
qualify for residence under other aspects of the UK's immigration | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
rules. It will have to be looked at case by case. We'll call that a | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
score draw. The manifesto said if an EU migrant child is living abroad, | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
then they should reach no child benefit. Has that been achieved? On | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
the particular issue of child benefit the proposal that's in the | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
papers is that child benefit should be paid indexed to the living | :09:44. | :09:47. | |
standards of the country where the child is residing. It is a | :09:48. | :09:55. | |
compromise. But on the other hand if one simply ended all child benefit | :09:56. | :10:01. | |
payments, where the parent is living here child living abroad, there | :10:02. | :10:06. | |
height be an incentive for them to bring their children with them. We | :10:07. | :10:14. | |
think if that would be nailed down. It would restore fairness to the | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
benefits system. And I think will make a difference in terms of | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
welfare spend. I'm asking this, because the Prime Minister said hand | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
on heart he had achieved the manifesto goal. He said, if you go | :10:25. | :10:30. | |
back to look at what he said in its entirety, he said what we have is | :10:31. | :10:33. | |
the basis for a good settlement. Burr there's a lot of work still to | :10:34. | :10:41. | |
be done. He implied, in fact he said directly, if he got this deal, as | :10:42. | :10:46. | |
long as this was delivered, he would be happy to join an EU if he weren't | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
a member. So his position is he's happy with the deal or he isn't | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
happy with the deal on the table? His position is this is a very good | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
basis for a deal that delivers answers to things about which the | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
British people have been most concerned. But as you will see, if | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
you've gone through the text, there are elements in it still in square | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
brackets and so on. There is still negotiation to be done. This is a | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
deal that will require the agreement of all 27 Governments. I don't want | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
to take, will the Prime Minister be happy if they gets this deal on | :11:22. | :11:27. | |
child benefit? If we get that as part of the whole package, we think | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
that would represent a reasonable compromise. We are looking at every | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
aspect of this negotiation, because the different parts all hang | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
together. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. I think you | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
will find every Government in Europe is saying that. The manifesto said, | :11:46. | :11:52. | |
we will insist that EU migrants to want to claim child benefit and tax | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
credits must have lived here for a minimum of four years. Has that been | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
achieved? Where we've got to today is a big advance on where we were. | :12:02. | :12:07. | |
What we've got today is explicit recognition by the European | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
institutions, first that in-work welfare systems can act as an | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
artificial pull factor for migration into a particular country. Secondly, | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
that individual countries should be entitled to do something about it, | :12:24. | :12:29. | |
and there are drafts of a legal mechanism that would enable action | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
to be taken. And third, the commission says, as part of today's | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
set of document, that they believe that the United Kingdom would | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
qualify to pull that so-called emergency brake now. And that, which | :12:41. | :12:48. | |
is now on offer, written down in this Tusk memo, would be | :12:49. | :12:50. | |
satisfactory for the British Government? You haven't achieved it | :12:51. | :12:57. | |
yet... It is a working draft in a live negotiation. I understand | :12:58. | :13:00. | |
you've got something, but I want to quote the manifesto. It says, this | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
will be an absolute requirement in the renegotiation. Again I come back | :13:06. | :13:08. | |
to the fact the Prime Minister said he's achieved what was written in | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
the manifesto. Patently they choose whether we apply the emergency | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
brake. If you look at what the Prime Minister said today, he said all | :13:19. | :13:24. | |
along, this is a very good important step forward, but this is also a | :13:25. | :13:28. | |
live negotiation. But you are hovering between that we are going | :13:29. | :13:31. | |
to get more and that you are happy with what we've got. Which is it? | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
Are we going to get more? Or is this a satisfactory deal? This is a good | :13:38. | :13:42. | |
basis on which to move towards a deal at the next summit, but we are | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
not there yet. So why did the Prime Minister today say, if I could get a | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
deal like this, I would be enthusiastically campaigning to join | :13:52. | :13:54. | |
the European Union if we weren't in it. If we do get a deal with all the | :13:55. | :14:02. | |
Ts crossed and Is dotted, there are important elements in the draft | :14:03. | :14:05. | |
which require further negotiation. But there's a difference between | :14:06. | :14:09. | |
crossing a T and trying to renegotiate a point that's appeared | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
to have been conceded, that ants Madge brake, but we are not going to | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
get the requirement, which was there'll be no in-work benefits. The | :14:19. | :14:25. | |
PM has been clear, go back to 204, when he addressed the issue of | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
welfare and migration in detail. He said consistently that what he is | :14:30. | :14:31. | |
about is getting the right outcome. What research has been done about | :14:32. | :14:44. | |
the numbers coming in for the EU benefits system. We know from the | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
Department of Work and Pensions figures that something like 40% of | :14:49. | :15:01. | |
recently arrived migrants... I do not want to know how many claim | :15:02. | :15:05. | |
benefits but how many come here as a result of those benefits being | :15:06. | :15:10. | |
claimed. That is a different matter. Steve Nickell of the Office for | :15:11. | :15:12. | |
Budget Responsibility used the phrase, not much, when asked by a | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
parliamentary committee. I think we were speaking in a personal | :15:18. | :15:25. | |
capacity, but when you look at the fact that somebody who comes to the | :15:26. | :15:33. | |
UK by claiming in work benefits, is able to be better off taking a | :15:34. | :15:40. | |
minimum wage unskilled job in this country, than by taking even a | :15:41. | :15:44. | |
skilled job in some of the countries people are coming from, you can see | :15:45. | :15:48. | |
that that system of access from day one to in work and of it makes us a | :15:49. | :15:54. | |
more attractive location. Can you hand on heart, to coin a phrase, | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
said that as a result of this migration from the European Union | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
will go down? I'm very confident that if a deal of this kind goes | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
through, and I repeat a lot of the detail has yet to be negotiated, | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
then the incentives that are welfare system provides will be reduced and | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
therefore people have less incentive to come to the UK. So it will go | :16:20. | :16:27. | |
down. It will depend in part on what happens in their home countries, how | :16:28. | :16:30. | |
good they are at creating jobs, how desperate people feel. So yes or no, | :16:31. | :16:37. | |
we'll migration from the EU go down if we get away, that depends | :16:38. | :16:42. | |
question what I'm saying it will reduce the pull factors | :16:43. | :16:44. | |
significantly off the welfare system. But there's more than one | :16:45. | :16:52. | |
motivating force when people choose both whether to leave their home | :16:53. | :16:55. | |
country and which other country then they want to move to. They're | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
looking at job prospects at home and they compare what we can offer. Even | :17:00. | :17:08. | |
last month, December, the Prime Minister talked about this package | :17:09. | :17:15. | |
as fundamental change. Do you as you stand and look at this now, really | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
think this is a fundamental change in our relationship with the EU? It | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
is pretty fundamental change not just in our relationship with the EU | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
but the way the EU things about itself and intends to operate in the | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
future. Are you now ready to vote to stay in? I'm very hopeful that after | :17:34. | :17:39. | |
a successful deal I will campaign alongside the Prime Minister for | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
continued membership of a reformed EU. David Cameron has got to remain | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
open-minded because he is told, he told his ministers that they cannot | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
campaign yet either because he wants to hold the Eurosceptics back until | :17:53. | :17:58. | |
as close as possible to the referendum. Is that what is really | :17:59. | :18:03. | |
going on? People like Chris Grayling would love to be let out of the | :18:04. | :18:10. | |
traps. The entire government took office on a shared collective | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
commitment to re-negotiate and then have a referendum. That is something | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
that everyone signed up to. There are long-standing honourable | :18:21. | :18:24. | |
differences of view in all political parties about whether ultimately | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
membership of the EU for the UK is a good bad thing and that is why the | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
Prime Ministers said in these exceptional circumstances when it | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
comes referendum campaigning, and listers who had a long-standing | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
position against EU membership would be free to campaign for that in | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
their personal capacity. I'm guessing that the people | :18:42. | :18:44. | |
who are not interested probably never made it past the first two | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
minutes, to be frank. At times like this it's worth asking | :18:49. | :18:50. | |
what the Tories' election-winning Focus on the important issues, | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
and remember that emotion normally Is the renegotiation | :18:54. | :18:58. | |
important, or emotional? We sent Lewis Goodall to test out | :18:59. | :19:05. | |
the views of the public Clacton on Sea, the most Eurosceptic | :19:06. | :19:25. | |
corner of England. If Donald Tusk letter can convince people hear it | :19:26. | :19:28. | |
will convince them anywhere. So I got on my bike to bring this letter | :19:29. | :19:31. | |
to the people. What will they make of David Cameron and his red cards, | :19:32. | :19:38. | |
baskets and emergency brakes? Have you heard of the Prime Minister, he | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
said he has a new deal in Europe? No. You have not heard about the | :19:44. | :19:51. | |
emergency brake? Or the red card? No. So unlikely to make any | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
difference to how you vote? We do not want more people over here. | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
They're getting these people around and there is no work for them. As | :20:02. | :20:08. | |
soon as they come here they will rock 'n' roll. We need to fully | :20:09. | :20:13. | |
respect the current treaties including the principles of free | :20:14. | :20:16. | |
movement and non-discrimination. So the proposal complies with the | :20:17. | :20:23. | |
current rules. And in English? Your guess is as good as mine. I heard | :20:24. | :20:31. | |
there is an emergency brake on workers and stuff like that. But in | :20:32. | :20:38. | |
the EU we will get flooding people into the country anyway, more than | :20:39. | :20:44. | |
are leaving. You have not heard about the Prime Minister and the new | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
deal in Europe? But you will vote to leave anyway? Yes, sorry. What do | :20:49. | :20:58. | |
you think about the EU, would you vote to stay or leave? To leave. No, | :20:59. | :21:09. | |
to stay. Which? To stay? Oh, to leave! | :21:10. | :21:16. | |
With this re-negotiation, David Cameron hoped to finally vanquished | :21:17. | :21:20. | |
Tory Euro scepticism for a generation. He is convinced many of | :21:21. | :21:23. | |
his MPs to come with them, getting him out of a very tight spot. | :21:24. | :21:29. | |
Amongst the public for whom the details of sovereignty and emergency | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
brakes are more obscure, his task is much harder. It may well be that | :21:35. | :21:37. | |
their minds are made up one way or another, long ago. | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
In the upper echelons of the Conservative Party there has | :21:43. | :21:45. | |
Boris Johnson said he did not yet know the "quivering magnitude" | :21:46. | :21:51. | |
of the deal, but sounded sceptical that it had achieved enough. | :21:52. | :21:54. | |
Perhaps more significant were the words of Home Secretary Theresa | :21:55. | :21:57. | |
She said the deal was "encouraging", which is very discouraging for those | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
hoping she would lead the Leave campaign. | :22:04. | :22:05. | |
If you're a Conservative MP, the best thing has been to pretend | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
you're open minded about the EU, so that when you finally | :22:09. | :22:11. | |
declare your view, you sound like you've been swayed by argument | :22:12. | :22:14. | |
We have a Conservative MP with us now, who was open minded and now | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
Good evening. What is your view as of now? I have been traditionally | :22:21. | :22:34. | |
Eurosceptic said I would wait for the re-negotiation to make the | :22:35. | :22:38. | |
decision. The deal I have seen today is not enough to convince me to vote | :22:39. | :22:42. | |
to stay in the EU so I will be voting to leave. And you were kind | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
of holding out until today so you have been swayed today. I think it | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
is just not enough. The issue about migration has not been dealt with | :22:54. | :22:56. | |
because we know that less than 30% of people who come from the EU are | :22:57. | :23:00. | |
here to claim benefits, must come to work. With the living wage being | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
introduced in the next few months that will encourage more people to | :23:06. | :23:07. | |
come. We should welcome those skills that we need absolutely, I say that | :23:08. | :23:13. | |
as a daughter of Irish immigrants who came to work, we need clear | :23:14. | :23:16. | |
boundaries so the skills that we have too many off, we need to be | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
able to say no. It has been obvious for quite a while but this was not | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
going to get you what you wanted. I wonder why you held out until today. | :23:26. | :23:32. | |
I was disappointed with the original requests in the letter to Donald | :23:33. | :23:35. | |
Tusk but I said if anyone could get as a good deal it will be the Prime | :23:36. | :23:40. | |
Minister. And it is this Conservative government and this | :23:41. | :23:42. | |
Prime Ministers who got the referendum in the first place. I was | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
optimistic if anyone could do it it would be the Prime Minister. But | :23:47. | :23:49. | |
what I've seen today has not convinced me. He has let you down a | :23:50. | :23:55. | |
bit. I think Europe has let us down. I have got to go back and face my | :23:56. | :23:59. | |
constituents, by fishermen in New Haven, whether fisheries policy is | :24:00. | :24:02. | |
decimating their business. I've got to go back and see my hairdressers | :24:03. | :24:08. | |
when new EU regulations mean they have to have clients in the chair | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
for longer because hairdryers are less powerful than they were. | :24:13. | :24:16. | |
Furniture producers, copyright changes mean they will be out of | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
business. You said you were always a sceptic but we will not find someone | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
saying they saw you saying you were going to vote for our three weeks | :24:27. | :24:32. | |
ago. I was Eurosceptic, I have been honest, but this is not the deal to | :24:33. | :24:37. | |
convince me. You spoke about your voters but what about your | :24:38. | :24:41. | |
colleagues on the backbenches of the Conservative Party, what has been | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
their reaction today? Most of us have been keen to wait and see what | :24:46. | :24:48. | |
the response is, people are nervous about what this means. Still some | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
people want to wait and see the response from other EU nations | :24:53. | :24:58. | |
before making a decision. I think this is a significant number of the | :24:59. | :25:03. | |
new intake, we have just bought a general election and got our seats, | :25:04. | :25:07. | |
we know what voters think in our constituency. We are going to go | :25:08. | :25:11. | |
into referendum, you will now be on the opposite side of your party | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
leader. Is that going to rip things apart or with you all be friendly | :25:16. | :25:23. | |
other -- afterwards? I'm sure it will not do my long-term medical | :25:24. | :25:28. | |
career any good but I have got to face my constituents at the end of | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
the day and do what I feel is best for the country. My vote and your | :25:33. | :25:36. | |
vote is no less important than every man and woman in this country. I do | :25:37. | :25:39. | |
not get a bigger say in what will happen in our relationship with the | :25:40. | :25:44. | |
EU, the referendum will decide that and the vote of the British public | :25:45. | :25:45. | |
will count. Well, Britain is more | :25:46. | :25:47. | |
important to Europe than Iowa Usually, except in an American | :25:48. | :25:49. | |
election year, and the day Some pretty interesting | :25:50. | :25:53. | |
results there. It is groundhog day today and for a | :25:54. | :26:11. | |
while last night I imagine Hillary Clinton thought it was going to be | :26:12. | :26:14. | |
2008 all over again when she lost the state that time to Barack Obama. | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
The larger-than-life character of Donald Trump has dominated so much | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
of the campaign Trail that for a time the Democrats did not seem to | :26:24. | :26:26. | |
get a look in. But last night the drama was definitely all with them. | :26:27. | :26:31. | |
A nail-biting finish with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and it | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
came down to just three tenths of one percentage point, the closest | :26:36. | :26:40. | |
ever in Democrat Caucus history. The caucus is a strange beast, this | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
extraordinary result achieved not with voting booth or buttons but | :26:46. | :26:49. | |
with paper and pens and the mobilisation of thousands of people | :26:50. | :26:51. | |
right across the state who left their home on a freezing night to go | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
and properly argue with their neighbours. We were lucky enough to | :26:56. | :27:02. | |
watch history in the making. Get some coffee or something. | :27:03. | :27:03. | |
Precinct three, Boone County, Mary and her husband Gary | :27:04. | :27:10. | |
have opened up their farmhouse in rural Iowa for the night. | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
There's camaraderie and occasionally, marital tension. | :27:15. | :27:22. | |
Roxanne and Steve Gunderson arrived together, he went one way | :27:23. | :27:24. | |
to the Clinton corner and she went to | :27:25. | :27:26. | |
You have chats, arguments about this over the dinner table? | :27:27. | :27:32. | |
Wait a minute, are you not listening to what the Democrat party | :27:33. | :27:50. | |
They're already looking for somebody else. | :27:51. | :27:56. | |
If he is the candidate, they're going to look | :27:57. | :27:58. | |
This is done with pencil, paper and bodies that | :27:59. | :28:06. | |
physically cross the floor when a mind is changed. | :28:07. | :28:09. | |
So they are either uncommitted or O'Malley. | :28:10. | :28:23. | |
The uncommitted, Dale, crosses the room | :28:24. | :28:25. | |
I like a lot of what Bernie has to say, but I remember him from way | :28:26. | :28:38. | |
back and I think that's probably why I may decide to go to Hillary more | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
29 times the number of delegates, which is three... | :28:43. | :28:51. | |
What they are choosing here is how many delegates | :28:52. | :28:53. | |
The maths is complicated but the ratio is weighted in favour | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
This ends with Hillary on two, Bernie on one. | :28:59. | :29:05. | |
The highest number yes, the delegates. | :29:06. | :29:08. | |
Oh my gosh, it is great to be here with all of you. | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
I am so thrilled that I'm coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa! | :29:14. | :29:20. | |
What Iowa has begun tonight is a political revolution. | :29:21. | :29:25. | |
The Clinton-Sanders contest was the closest in the history | :29:26. | :29:35. | |
of the Democrat caucus in Iowa, a cigarette paper-thin margin | :29:36. | :29:38. | |
which will make many see Bernie Sanders in a new light. | :29:39. | :29:45. | |
The Vermont Senator who grew up in Brooklyn and calls himself | :29:46. | :29:48. | |
socialist is now the unlikely hero of the left across America. | :29:49. | :29:53. | |
Anti-big business, pro environment, and passionate | :29:54. | :29:54. | |
Think Jeremy Corbyn with a New York absent. | :29:55. | :30:04. | |
I think it is the sense of pulling apart that's happening on both sides | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
of the political spectrum in America, where it feels | :30:09. | :30:10. | |
like people are increasingly gravitating towards the extreme | :30:11. | :30:13. | |
polls of the right and the left and the centre is hollowing out. | :30:14. | :30:17. | |
For Democrats it is a return to the '60s and '70s-style | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
radicalism, a rejection of the centrism and triangulation | :30:21. | :30:22. | |
that both Clintons have always represented. | :30:23. | :30:28. | |
And a desire to really be more muscular in their liberal socialist | :30:29. | :30:31. | |
What he's doing is opening up a race that many felt had become | :30:32. | :30:37. | |
Hillary Clinton seems unassailable, unstoppable. | :30:38. | :30:43. | |
There are those in the party even who liked here who worried | :30:44. | :30:45. | |
about a path to the nomination that looked unchallenged. | :30:46. | :30:48. | |
The Clinton machine has been spooked by this. | :30:49. | :30:50. | |
White vote, the activist vote and the young vote on the left. He | :30:51. | :31:10. | |
won... This morning Clinton admitted she had to do better with new and | :31:11. | :31:15. | |
younger voters. Bernie Sanders now calling for a release of the raw | :31:16. | :31:21. | |
vote count in Iowa says his rise is a sign that voters want change. But | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
they might be flirting with him at this stage, confident that Hillary | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
will get the nomination, and seeings what it feels like to dip their toes | :31:31. | :31:35. | |
into the icy waters of real radicalism. Let's examine some of | :31:36. | :31:40. | |
those issues more deeply. Would you see that a.3% finish as a | :31:41. | :31:54. | |
win for Bernie Sanders? A tie is as good as a win when you are the | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
underdog the way he's been. This was Hillary Clinton's state to lose. | :32:00. | :32:02. | |
Even though she didn't technically lose it | :32:03. | :32:04. | |
He calls himself a socialist. What does that mean for people in | :32:05. | :32:13. | |
America? Well, it is much more of an epithet than your viewers are | :32:14. | :32:19. | |
accustomed to. He's been an independent Senator, not | :32:20. | :32:21. | |
traditionally a part of the Democratic Party in Congress. Iowa | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
Democrats are much more progressive, much more rebel than Democrats in | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
the United States. This was a good state for him. A poll showed 43% of | :32:31. | :32:36. | |
the Democratic voters here did use the term socialist. But historically | :32:37. | :32:41. | |
that's been a fight word. You spent a lot of time in Des Moines gearing | :32:42. | :32:46. | |
up for this. You suggested this was going to be like the Hunger Games. | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
Yes, there were 10 republicans in the field, as the vote got close ter | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
gloves came off, the attack ads were saturated on television. Candidates | :32:58. | :33:03. | |
who had never engaged like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump started going after | :33:04. | :33:07. | |
each other in very insulting ways. Last night showed how that came out. | :33:08. | :33:11. | |
If you step back from the last month and asked people what they thought | :33:12. | :33:17. | |
would happen in Iowa, they would probably have said Hillary would win | :33:18. | :33:21. | |
and Ted Cruz would win. Does that mean all the fury and the polling | :33:22. | :33:29. | |
has been for nothing? Ted Cruz got the evangelicals and Hillary the | :33:30. | :33:33. | |
Democratic vote. Most of the money yesterday before the voting was on | :33:34. | :33:37. | |
Donald Trump, who was having a surge in the polls, and on Hillary, who | :33:38. | :33:42. | |
seemed to have a three or 4 point advantage. The results showed the | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
vulnerability and the unpredictability and unreliability, | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
excuse me, of polls these days. Dramatic results on both sides. If | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
we take this forward now, looking at the Democrats race first of all, | :33:57. | :34:01. | |
this idea that Bernie Sanders is fresh blood in the race, if you | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
like. He is somebody that people haven't really seen before. I | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
described it as people dipping their toes into radicalism for the first | :34:10. | :34:12. | |
time. Do you think there is any chance he will see this through to | :34:13. | :34:17. | |
the end? Or do you think the next primaries will end that? He has | :34:18. | :34:24. | |
unleashed a rush of donations. He said the average donation he he has | :34:25. | :34:32. | |
had is $27, and he has had is $27, and he's raised $27 million a | :34:33. | :34:35. | |
quarter. He has the money, unless he loses anywhere. This is a very | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
hospitable playing field, idealogically New Hampshire he will | :34:42. | :34:46. | |
do well at. It is next door to his home state of Vermont, where he is | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
ahead in the polls. The Democratic vote will move to the south. | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
African-American voters support Hillary Clinton now strongly and | :34:56. | :34:58. | |
he'll have to deal with that. If you looking to the republican race, many | :34:59. | :35:04. | |
are saying the real winner is Marco Rubio. Explain why? Iowa was an | :35:05. | :35:09. | |
expectation game. Rubin was stuck in the polls. He came in 23% last | :35:10. | :35:15. | |
night. Anybody who is looking nor a real alternative to Trump or a Ted | :35:16. | :35:19. | |
Cruz, a less Conservative alternative, wants to rally around | :35:20. | :35:21. | |
or coalesce around alternative, wants to rally around | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
Rubin is in a position to take that role. Thank you very much indeed. | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
Rubin is in a position to take that The next race, the | :35:31. | :35:32. | |
Rubin is in a position to take that test will be in | :35:33. | :35:35. | |
Rubin is in a position to take that that, it is next to Vermont. He has | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
a home state advantage there. Perhaps the eyes will be back on to | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
the republican race then. If Donald Trump doesn't win in New Hampshire, | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
people will start to ask whether he becomes that 2016 footnote too. | :35:50. | :35:50. | |
Emily. Thank you. As if to remind us why Zika | :35:51. | :35:56. | |
was declared a world health emergency yesterday, | :35:57. | :35:59. | |
two pieces of news as to its spread A likely case of sexual | :36:00. | :36:01. | |
transmission in Texas - a Dallas County resident who had | :36:02. | :36:08. | |
sexual contact with someone who acquired the Zika infection | :36:09. | :36:11. | |
while travelling abroad. And then, in Ireland, | :36:12. | :36:12. | |
two cases have been in found in people who've had a history | :36:13. | :36:15. | |
of travelling in affected areas. From Oxford, I'm joined | :36:16. | :36:17. | |
by Professor Trudie Lang, principal investigator | :36:18. | :36:19. | |
for the Nuffield Research Centre for prevention and treatment | :36:20. | :36:21. | |
of diseases like Ebola. It is literally a week ago on this | :36:22. | :36:31. | |
programme we were talking about a case of apparent transmission in | :36:32. | :36:37. | |
2008. It seemed outlandish. What do we now know or don't know about | :36:38. | :36:41. | |
sexual transmission? I don't think we are too much further forward than | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
last week really. So this isn't unexamined. It is not particularly | :36:46. | :36:51. | |
surprising. All we know is that there is this apparent transmission | :36:52. | :36:55. | |
between somebody's returned from an infected country and has passed this | :36:56. | :37:00. | |
on through sexual contact. It is not completely confirmed, as I | :37:01. | :37:04. | |
understand, but for us it raises more questions than it answers. We | :37:05. | :37:08. | |
are just adding to the list of research questions we need to tackle | :37:09. | :37:14. | |
within this rapidly emerging and quiet | :37:15. | :37:17. | |
research questions we need to tackle within this rapidly emerging and -- | :37:18. | :37:21. | |
quiet worrying suggestion. We got into bodily fluids last week, but | :37:22. | :37:24. | |
there's a suggestion that saliva could be a route to transmission. | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
We've had no reports of that and we need to make it really clear that as | :37:29. | :37:34. | |
far as... With all the information we've got and evidence that we can | :37:35. | :37:38. | |
draw together so far, it suggests that most of the transmission occurs | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
from mosquito bites. We know it is present in semen but remember that | :37:44. | :37:49. | |
most people don't have any symptoms. So presumably the person who came | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
back from the affected country was unwell, which is why he went to be | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
tested, presumably, for Zika, and he has passed it on. We don't know if | :37:59. | :38:04. | |
you are not symptomatic, do you have virus in your fluids? And the | :38:05. | :38:10. | |
question of whether it is in other fluids, it's unlikely. We were | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
fairly confident that the route of transmission is on mosquito bites. | :38:15. | :38:17. | |
That's where the burden of disease is in the region. Right, these cases | :38:18. | :38:24. | |
this evening put the focus on transmission outside what we call | :38:25. | :38:29. | |
the affected areas. Are we quite sure that mosquitoes that exist in, | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
say, in Britain or the British Isles, are we quite sure they would | :38:34. | :38:38. | |
not transmit the virus? We are fairly sure. This is an emerging | :38:39. | :38:43. | |
situation and we need research. This is, as we are saying over and over | :38:44. | :38:51. | |
again, we know that the Aedes mosquito that carries dengue and | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
other diseases occurs in tropical climate. There is no suggestion that | :38:56. | :39:01. | |
it can be transmitted by mosquitoes in the UK or colder climate. There | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
is no evidence to support that. Do we have any knowledge as to how long | :39:08. | :39:12. | |
it lurks in the body? If somebody travelled to Brazil, they come back, | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
they don't want sexual contact with a partner who may potentially be | :39:18. | :39:20. | |
becoming pregnant. How long do they need to wait? We simply don't know. | :39:21. | :39:26. | |
This is why we need a co-operative international research effort to | :39:27. | :39:30. | |
address all these questions. Because there's so many unknowns, still to | :39:31. | :39:40. | |
prove the link with microcephaly and to work on vaccines and drugs to | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
cure this disease. Briefly, the Olympics. It is hard to think this | :39:47. | :39:49. | |
wouldn't have an affect on the willingness of people to travel | :39:50. | :39:52. | |
there. I suppose there's two hopeful elements. One, the climate in Brazil | :39:53. | :39:58. | |
is less favourable toll the Aedes mosquito at that time of year. And | :39:59. | :40:03. | |
also that efforts to reduce the mosquito population might have | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
kicked in. And we may have, the best case scenario is that the epidemic | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
works its way through. But we just need to wait and see. All the travel | :40:13. | :40:18. | |
advice out there already is very sensible. It should help guide | :40:19. | :40:23. | |
people. Professor, thank you very much indeed. | :40:24. | :40:25. | |
Before we move on - a quick look at the papers' reaction | :40:26. | :40:28. | |
It is not going to make great reading for the Prime Minister. The | :40:29. | :40:41. | |
great delusion, says the Daily Mail. The Times says Brussels will have | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
right to reject benefit curbs. And backlash against watered down | :40:47. | :40:52. | |
referendum deal. Financial Times, Cameron faces battle to sell EU deal | :40:53. | :41:00. | |
to sceptical Tory MPs. The Daily Telegraph, Ministers to defy PM on | :41:01. | :41:05. | |
Europe. None of these are looking good for him. The Guardian has one | :41:06. | :41:10. | |
more encouraging for the Prime Minister. Cameron wins May's | :41:11. | :41:17. | |
backing. And Dad's Army deal turns to farce. Who do EU think you are | :41:18. | :41:26. | |
kidding Mr Cameron? Caves in over benefits, brake on laws. | :41:27. | :41:28. | |
We leave you with some rather sinister social media cartoons | :41:29. | :41:32. | |
created by the All-Russia People's Front, the ONF. | :41:33. | :41:35. | |
The cartoons are allegedly part of an anti-corruption drive, | :41:36. | :41:39. | |
and show various Russian public figures being killed | :41:40. | :41:42. | |
by the Russian President in ways befitting their supposed offences. | :41:43. | :41:45. | |
What makes it so disturbing is that the founder | :41:46. | :41:47. | |
of the All Russia People's Front IS President Putin. | :41:48. | :41:54. |