02/02/2016 Newsnight


02/02/2016

With Evan Davis. The PM tries to close the deal on Europe. The fallout from the Iowa vote. Zika passed by sex in the US.


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Transcript


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This is really not anywhere near what I had hoped. Even if the full

:00:07.:00:25.

baskets at the UN were res lurkts clear, and what we were asking for

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it might be a step in the right direction, but it isn't that.

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Mr Cameron talks up his renegotiation while his party

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Perhaps it was never going to change people's minds

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We'll work out what has and what has not been achieved.

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And the Europe Minister does his best to sell

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After a tie to the last percentage point between Hillary Clinton and

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Bernie Sanders we look at what's happening on the left of American

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politics Up till now it's been

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spread by mosquitoes. Tonight, reports of the first

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confirmed US case transmitted So, a draft deal with the EU

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has been published. We've spent a long time

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getting here, but have about getting this

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relationship right. I don't believe leaving the EU

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would be best for Britain, but nor do I believe that voting

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to preserve the exact status quo We will give the British people

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a referendum with a very simple To stay in the European Union

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on these new terms or to We are saying the Conservatives

:01:45.:01:51.

are the largest party. There will be ups and downs,

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you will hear one day this is possible, the next day

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something else is impossible. But one thing throughout

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all of this will be constant EU migrants should have a job offer

:02:10.:02:17.

before they come here. UK taxpayers will not

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support them if they don't. And once they are in work,

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they won't get benefits or social housing from Britain

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unless they have been I think strong, determined,

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patient negotiation has achieved Well, it is today that we saw

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the outline of the result Mr Cameron has certainly

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lowered his aspirations since 2013, when he embarked on the path

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to a referendum and made some lavish promises about what

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he might achieve. Predictably, people involved

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in officially campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU

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are enthusiastic about the package. A sign, they say, of how

:03:03.:03:05.

far our partners will bend Those against our membership

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dismiss it as derisory. But the funny thing is that even

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many EU supporters - people on Cameron's side -

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also dismiss it as far Do you want to make

:03:17.:03:18.

up your own mind? Today we got the skeleton

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of a deal from Brussels. So we know roughly what

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renegotiation will look like and that the referendum looks

:03:33.:03:36.

increasingly likely to fall on June Sometimes people say

:03:37.:03:38.

to me, if you weren't in the European Union,

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would you opt to join And today I can give

:03:45.:03:46.

a very clear answer. If I could get these terms

:03:47.:03:49.

for British membership, I sure would opt in to be a member

:03:50.:03:53.

of the European Union because these And they're different

:03:54.:03:57.

to what other countries have. Now the Prime Minister

:03:58.:04:02.

wants to campaign to remain within the European Union

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and so for him the renegotiation First of all it is

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changing the EU into For example through changes

:04:09.:04:16.

to migration rules. Secondly, though, it is

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demonstrating that Britain has influence that it can

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use to change the EU, that Europe isn't something

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that is just done to us. The problem for him,

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though, is that these changes have to be big enough

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to sell both of those ideas. The draft proposes that the Eurozone

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nations shouldn't be able So it has a mechanism

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to respect the competences, rights and obligations of member

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states whose currency They also say that treaty references

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to an ever closer union should not be used to support an extensive

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interpretation of the competences be used to support an extensive

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interpretation of the competencies If a bit more than half of EU

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Parliaments, in the jargon, 55% of the votes allocated

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to national parliaments, pass a vote against the measure,

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they can block European This expert from

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a think tank close to the Prime Minister thinks those

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provisions are significant, I think when it comes

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to the red card for national parliaments,

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that is more of a symbolic victory It is the first time that national

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parliaments have a binding assay It is the first time that national

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parliaments have a binding say But the threshold of 55% of national

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parliaments to activate the red card Now of course some people

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said to me, don't... So can the Prime Minister

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sell this to his Just kick over the table,

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stormed out of the room, and wait until they

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call you back in. Well, the PM has asked for something

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which to me was critical. Which is no ever closer

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union for Great Britain. The response in the

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document is pretty It says they understand

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that that is what we are asking for and when they get

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to any future treaty whoever is running the member states then,

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so not the people who were there today, will be deciding this,

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will have a look at it and see if they can include it

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in a future treaty. On immigration, they propose

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allowing bans of EU citizens who represent a genuine

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and serious threat. Even in the absence

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of a criminal conviction. They also propose an emergency brake

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on migration, to be used when there is an inflow of workers

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from other member states of an exceptional magnitude over

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an extended period of time. That would not be a ban on coming

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here, but new EU workers would not get full access to

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benefits for a bit. They would start with an initial,

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complete exclusion from them, but then get gradually increasing

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access to full benefit entitlements The paper also proposes trimming

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the children's benefits paid out to families where the

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child lives abroad. These migration proposals

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caused a bit of a problem Last year at the election

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he pledged that people who had been working here for fewer

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than four years shouldn't be He also pledged that people whose

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children are abroad shouldn't get So you can understand why some

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people will feel their expectations I think that is slightly

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unfair and people should recognise how

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far we have come. First of all the ability

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to distinguish between UK nationals and EU nationals who are first

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arriving and denied access to the welfare system

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for a period of time. And I think when it comes

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to the UK universal system, although it may not be a ban

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for four years outright, denying benefits for a certain

:07:35.:07:37.

period of time could change people's attitudes to whether they take

:07:38.:07:40.

the decision to come to the UK. The emergency brake

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in of itself is a It is the EU telling us

:07:44.:07:44.

when we might be allowed So you're driving a car,

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you can see a car crash at the head. You're not allowed to put

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your foot on the brake. But you're not allowed to hold

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the steering wheel either. So there are substantive

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changes in there but it is not what the Tory manifesto

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promised and it is not going to be in the bag until an EU meeting that

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ends on February the 19th. Earlier this evening I spoke

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to the Europe Minister, Now, the Prime Mininster said

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earlier, "hand on heart", he'd achieved what he said

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he would in the Tory party So, could Mr Lidington

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help clarify that? I asked whether the draft deal met

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the manifesto's commitment to require EU migrants to leave Britain

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if they hadn't found a job here in six months. It is already the

:08:35.:08:38.

position under European law that you are allowed to travel freely to work

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but you are not allowed to hang on if you have no prospect of work. So

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that's already a provision. If this is about making sure that we are

:08:47.:08:50.

able to deliver on that. But they'll be required to leave. So even if

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they've got their own resources, because they won't be Gesting

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benefits. They will be deported or give a notice... This is a matters

:09:00.:09:04.

for the Immigration Service's arrangements for dealing with people

:09:05.:09:08.

who've, who are here without a legal right to be here. Obviously if

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somebody has their own resources it is conceivable that they might

:09:13.:09:17.

qualify for residence under other aspects of the UK's immigration

:09:18.:09:22.

rules. It will have to be looked at case by case. We'll call that a

:09:23.:09:28.

score draw. The manifesto said if an EU migrant child is living abroad,

:09:29.:09:33.

then they should reach no child benefit. Has that been achieved? On

:09:34.:09:37.

the particular issue of child benefit the proposal that's in the

:09:38.:09:43.

papers is that child benefit should be paid indexed to the living

:09:44.:09:47.

standards of the country where the child is residing. It is a

:09:48.:09:55.

compromise. But on the other hand if one simply ended all child benefit

:09:56.:10:01.

payments, where the parent is living here child living abroad, there

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height be an incentive for them to bring their children with them. We

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think if that would be nailed down. It would restore fairness to the

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benefits system. And I think will make a difference in terms of

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welfare spend. I'm asking this, because the Prime Minister said hand

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on heart he had achieved the manifesto goal. He said, if you go

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back to look at what he said in its entirety, he said what we have is

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the basis for a good settlement. Burr there's a lot of work still to

:10:34.:10:41.

be done. He implied, in fact he said directly, if he got this deal, as

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long as this was delivered, he would be happy to join an EU if he weren't

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a member. So his position is he's happy with the deal or he isn't

:10:51.:10:54.

happy with the deal on the table? His position is this is a very good

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basis for a deal that delivers answers to things about which the

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British people have been most concerned. But as you will see, if

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you've gone through the text, there are elements in it still in square

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brackets and so on. There is still negotiation to be done. This is a

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deal that will require the agreement of all 27 Governments. I don't want

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to take, will the Prime Minister be happy if they gets this deal on

:11:22.:11:27.

child benefit? If we get that as part of the whole package, we think

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that would represent a reasonable compromise. We are looking at every

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aspect of this negotiation, because the different parts all hang

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together. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. I think you

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will find every Government in Europe is saying that. The manifesto said,

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we will insist that EU migrants to want to claim child benefit and tax

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credits must have lived here for a minimum of four years. Has that been

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achieved? Where we've got to today is a big advance on where we were.

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What we've got today is explicit recognition by the European

:12:08.:12:12.

institutions, first that in-work welfare systems can act as an

:12:13.:12:18.

artificial pull factor for migration into a particular country. Secondly,

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that individual countries should be entitled to do something about it,

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and there are drafts of a legal mechanism that would enable action

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to be taken. And third, the commission says, as part of today's

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set of document, that they believe that the United Kingdom would

:12:38.:12:40.

qualify to pull that so-called emergency brake now. And that, which

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is now on offer, written down in this Tusk memo, would be

:12:49.:12:50.

satisfactory for the British Government? You haven't achieved it

:12:51.:12:57.

yet... It is a working draft in a live negotiation. I understand

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you've got something, but I want to quote the manifesto. It says, this

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will be an absolute requirement in the renegotiation. Again I come back

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to the fact the Prime Minister said he's achieved what was written in

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the manifesto. Patently they choose whether we apply the emergency

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brake. If you look at what the Prime Minister said today, he said all

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along, this is a very good important step forward, but this is also a

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live negotiation. But you are hovering between that we are going

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to get more and that you are happy with what we've got. Which is it?

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Are we going to get more? Or is this a satisfactory deal? This is a good

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basis on which to move towards a deal at the next summit, but we are

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not there yet. So why did the Prime Minister today say, if I could get a

:13:47.:13:51.

deal like this, I would be enthusiastically campaigning to join

:13:52.:13:54.

the European Union if we weren't in it. If we do get a deal with all the

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Ts crossed and Is dotted, there are important elements in the draft

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which require further negotiation. But there's a difference between

:14:06.:14:09.

crossing a T and trying to renegotiate a point that's appeared

:14:10.:14:14.

to have been conceded, that ants Madge brake, but we are not going to

:14:15.:14:18.

get the requirement, which was there'll be no in-work benefits. The

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PM has been clear, go back to 204, when he addressed the issue of

:14:26.:14:29.

welfare and migration in detail. He said consistently that what he is

:14:30.:14:31.

about is getting the right outcome. What research has been done about

:14:32.:14:44.

the numbers coming in for the EU benefits system. We know from the

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Department of Work and Pensions figures that something like 40% of

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recently arrived migrants... I do not want to know how many claim

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benefits but how many come here as a result of those benefits being

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claimed. That is a different matter. Steve Nickell of the Office for

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Budget Responsibility used the phrase, not much, when asked by a

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parliamentary committee. I think we were speaking in a personal

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capacity, but when you look at the fact that somebody who comes to the

:15:26.:15:33.

UK by claiming in work benefits, is able to be better off taking a

:15:34.:15:40.

minimum wage unskilled job in this country, than by taking even a

:15:41.:15:44.

skilled job in some of the countries people are coming from, you can see

:15:45.:15:48.

that that system of access from day one to in work and of it makes us a

:15:49.:15:54.

more attractive location. Can you hand on heart, to coin a phrase,

:15:55.:16:00.

said that as a result of this migration from the European Union

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will go down? I'm very confident that if a deal of this kind goes

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through, and I repeat a lot of the detail has yet to be negotiated,

:16:11.:16:15.

then the incentives that are welfare system provides will be reduced and

:16:16.:16:19.

therefore people have less incentive to come to the UK. So it will go

:16:20.:16:27.

down. It will depend in part on what happens in their home countries, how

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good they are at creating jobs, how desperate people feel. So yes or no,

:16:31.:16:37.

we'll migration from the EU go down if we get away, that depends

:16:38.:16:42.

question what I'm saying it will reduce the pull factors

:16:43.:16:44.

significantly off the welfare system. But there's more than one

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motivating force when people choose both whether to leave their home

:16:53.:16:55.

country and which other country then they want to move to. They're

:16:56.:16:59.

looking at job prospects at home and they compare what we can offer. Even

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last month, December, the Prime Minister talked about this package

:17:09.:17:15.

as fundamental change. Do you as you stand and look at this now, really

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think this is a fundamental change in our relationship with the EU? It

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is pretty fundamental change not just in our relationship with the EU

:17:25.:17:29.

but the way the EU things about itself and intends to operate in the

:17:30.:17:33.

future. Are you now ready to vote to stay in? I'm very hopeful that after

:17:34.:17:39.

a successful deal I will campaign alongside the Prime Minister for

:17:40.:17:43.

continued membership of a reformed EU. David Cameron has got to remain

:17:44.:17:48.

open-minded because he is told, he told his ministers that they cannot

:17:49.:17:52.

campaign yet either because he wants to hold the Eurosceptics back until

:17:53.:17:58.

as close as possible to the referendum. Is that what is really

:17:59.:18:03.

going on? People like Chris Grayling would love to be let out of the

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traps. The entire government took office on a shared collective

:18:11.:18:15.

commitment to re-negotiate and then have a referendum. That is something

:18:16.:18:20.

that everyone signed up to. There are long-standing honourable

:18:21.:18:24.

differences of view in all political parties about whether ultimately

:18:25.:18:29.

membership of the EU for the UK is a good bad thing and that is why the

:18:30.:18:33.

Prime Ministers said in these exceptional circumstances when it

:18:34.:18:36.

comes referendum campaigning, and listers who had a long-standing

:18:37.:18:39.

position against EU membership would be free to campaign for that in

:18:40.:18:41.

their personal capacity. I'm guessing that the people

:18:42.:18:44.

who are not interested probably never made it past the first two

:18:45.:18:48.

minutes, to be frank. At times like this it's worth asking

:18:49.:18:50.

what the Tories' election-winning Focus on the important issues,

:18:51.:18:53.

and remember that emotion normally Is the renegotiation

:18:54.:18:58.

important, or emotional? We sent Lewis Goodall to test out

:18:59.:19:05.

the views of the public Clacton on Sea, the most Eurosceptic

:19:06.:19:25.

corner of England. If Donald Tusk letter can convince people hear it

:19:26.:19:28.

will convince them anywhere. So I got on my bike to bring this letter

:19:29.:19:31.

to the people. What will they make of David Cameron and his red cards,

:19:32.:19:38.

baskets and emergency brakes? Have you heard of the Prime Minister, he

:19:39.:19:43.

said he has a new deal in Europe? No. You have not heard about the

:19:44.:19:51.

emergency brake? Or the red card? No. So unlikely to make any

:19:52.:19:56.

difference to how you vote? We do not want more people over here.

:19:57.:20:01.

They're getting these people around and there is no work for them. As

:20:02.:20:08.

soon as they come here they will rock 'n' roll. We need to fully

:20:09.:20:13.

respect the current treaties including the principles of free

:20:14.:20:16.

movement and non-discrimination. So the proposal complies with the

:20:17.:20:23.

current rules. And in English? Your guess is as good as mine. I heard

:20:24.:20:31.

there is an emergency brake on workers and stuff like that. But in

:20:32.:20:38.

the EU we will get flooding people into the country anyway, more than

:20:39.:20:44.

are leaving. You have not heard about the Prime Minister and the new

:20:45.:20:48.

deal in Europe? But you will vote to leave anyway? Yes, sorry. What do

:20:49.:20:58.

you think about the EU, would you vote to stay or leave? To leave. No,

:20:59.:21:09.

to stay. Which? To stay? Oh, to leave!

:21:10.:21:16.

With this re-negotiation, David Cameron hoped to finally vanquished

:21:17.:21:20.

Tory Euro scepticism for a generation. He is convinced many of

:21:21.:21:23.

his MPs to come with them, getting him out of a very tight spot.

:21:24.:21:29.

Amongst the public for whom the details of sovereignty and emergency

:21:30.:21:34.

brakes are more obscure, his task is much harder. It may well be that

:21:35.:21:37.

their minds are made up one way or another, long ago.

:21:38.:21:42.

In the upper echelons of the Conservative Party there has

:21:43.:21:45.

Boris Johnson said he did not yet know the "quivering magnitude"

:21:46.:21:51.

of the deal, but sounded sceptical that it had achieved enough.

:21:52.:21:54.

Perhaps more significant were the words of Home Secretary Theresa

:21:55.:21:57.

She said the deal was "encouraging", which is very discouraging for those

:21:58.:22:03.

hoping she would lead the Leave campaign.

:22:04.:22:05.

If you're a Conservative MP, the best thing has been to pretend

:22:06.:22:08.

you're open minded about the EU, so that when you finally

:22:09.:22:11.

declare your view, you sound like you've been swayed by argument

:22:12.:22:14.

We have a Conservative MP with us now, who was open minded and now

:22:15.:22:20.

Good evening. What is your view as of now? I have been traditionally

:22:21.:22:34.

Eurosceptic said I would wait for the re-negotiation to make the

:22:35.:22:38.

decision. The deal I have seen today is not enough to convince me to vote

:22:39.:22:42.

to stay in the EU so I will be voting to leave. And you were kind

:22:43.:22:47.

of holding out until today so you have been swayed today. I think it

:22:48.:22:53.

is just not enough. The issue about migration has not been dealt with

:22:54.:22:56.

because we know that less than 30% of people who come from the EU are

:22:57.:23:00.

here to claim benefits, must come to work. With the living wage being

:23:01.:23:05.

introduced in the next few months that will encourage more people to

:23:06.:23:07.

come. We should welcome those skills that we need absolutely, I say that

:23:08.:23:13.

as a daughter of Irish immigrants who came to work, we need clear

:23:14.:23:16.

boundaries so the skills that we have too many off, we need to be

:23:17.:23:20.

able to say no. It has been obvious for quite a while but this was not

:23:21.:23:25.

going to get you what you wanted. I wonder why you held out until today.

:23:26.:23:32.

I was disappointed with the original requests in the letter to Donald

:23:33.:23:35.

Tusk but I said if anyone could get as a good deal it will be the Prime

:23:36.:23:40.

Minister. And it is this Conservative government and this

:23:41.:23:42.

Prime Ministers who got the referendum in the first place. I was

:23:43.:23:46.

optimistic if anyone could do it it would be the Prime Minister. But

:23:47.:23:49.

what I've seen today has not convinced me. He has let you down a

:23:50.:23:55.

bit. I think Europe has let us down. I have got to go back and face my

:23:56.:23:59.

constituents, by fishermen in New Haven, whether fisheries policy is

:24:00.:24:02.

decimating their business. I've got to go back and see my hairdressers

:24:03.:24:08.

when new EU regulations mean they have to have clients in the chair

:24:09.:24:12.

for longer because hairdryers are less powerful than they were.

:24:13.:24:16.

Furniture producers, copyright changes mean they will be out of

:24:17.:24:20.

business. You said you were always a sceptic but we will not find someone

:24:21.:24:26.

saying they saw you saying you were going to vote for our three weeks

:24:27.:24:32.

ago. I was Eurosceptic, I have been honest, but this is not the deal to

:24:33.:24:37.

convince me. You spoke about your voters but what about your

:24:38.:24:41.

colleagues on the backbenches of the Conservative Party, what has been

:24:42.:24:45.

their reaction today? Most of us have been keen to wait and see what

:24:46.:24:48.

the response is, people are nervous about what this means. Still some

:24:49.:24:52.

people want to wait and see the response from other EU nations

:24:53.:24:58.

before making a decision. I think this is a significant number of the

:24:59.:25:03.

new intake, we have just bought a general election and got our seats,

:25:04.:25:07.

we know what voters think in our constituency. We are going to go

:25:08.:25:11.

into referendum, you will now be on the opposite side of your party

:25:12.:25:15.

leader. Is that going to rip things apart or with you all be friendly

:25:16.:25:23.

other -- afterwards? I'm sure it will not do my long-term medical

:25:24.:25:28.

career any good but I have got to face my constituents at the end of

:25:29.:25:32.

the day and do what I feel is best for the country. My vote and your

:25:33.:25:36.

vote is no less important than every man and woman in this country. I do

:25:37.:25:39.

not get a bigger say in what will happen in our relationship with the

:25:40.:25:44.

EU, the referendum will decide that and the vote of the British public

:25:45.:25:45.

will count. Well, Britain is more

:25:46.:25:47.

important to Europe than Iowa Usually, except in an American

:25:48.:25:49.

election year, and the day Some pretty interesting

:25:50.:25:53.

results there. It is groundhog day today and for a

:25:54.:26:11.

while last night I imagine Hillary Clinton thought it was going to be

:26:12.:26:14.

2008 all over again when she lost the state that time to Barack Obama.

:26:15.:26:19.

The larger-than-life character of Donald Trump has dominated so much

:26:20.:26:23.

of the campaign Trail that for a time the Democrats did not seem to

:26:24.:26:26.

get a look in. But last night the drama was definitely all with them.

:26:27.:26:31.

A nail-biting finish with Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and it

:26:32.:26:35.

came down to just three tenths of one percentage point, the closest

:26:36.:26:40.

ever in Democrat Caucus history. The caucus is a strange beast, this

:26:41.:26:45.

extraordinary result achieved not with voting booth or buttons but

:26:46.:26:49.

with paper and pens and the mobilisation of thousands of people

:26:50.:26:51.

right across the state who left their home on a freezing night to go

:26:52.:26:55.

and properly argue with their neighbours. We were lucky enough to

:26:56.:27:02.

watch history in the making. Get some coffee or something.

:27:03.:27:03.

Precinct three, Boone County, Mary and her husband Gary

:27:04.:27:10.

have opened up their farmhouse in rural Iowa for the night.

:27:11.:27:14.

There's camaraderie and occasionally, marital tension.

:27:15.:27:22.

Roxanne and Steve Gunderson arrived together, he went one way

:27:23.:27:24.

to the Clinton corner and she went to

:27:25.:27:26.

You have chats, arguments about this over the dinner table?

:27:27.:27:32.

Wait a minute, are you not listening to what the Democrat party

:27:33.:27:50.

They're already looking for somebody else.

:27:51.:27:56.

If he is the candidate, they're going to look

:27:57.:27:58.

This is done with pencil, paper and bodies that

:27:59.:28:06.

physically cross the floor when a mind is changed.

:28:07.:28:09.

So they are either uncommitted or O'Malley.

:28:10.:28:23.

The uncommitted, Dale, crosses the room

:28:24.:28:25.

I like a lot of what Bernie has to say, but I remember him from way

:28:26.:28:38.

back and I think that's probably why I may decide to go to Hillary more

:28:39.:28:42.

29 times the number of delegates, which is three...

:28:43.:28:51.

What they are choosing here is how many delegates

:28:52.:28:53.

The maths is complicated but the ratio is weighted in favour

:28:54.:28:58.

This ends with Hillary on two, Bernie on one.

:28:59.:29:05.

The highest number yes, the delegates.

:29:06.:29:08.

Oh my gosh, it is great to be here with all of you.

:29:09.:29:13.

I am so thrilled that I'm coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa!

:29:14.:29:20.

What Iowa has begun tonight is a political revolution.

:29:21.:29:25.

The Clinton-Sanders contest was the closest in the history

:29:26.:29:35.

of the Democrat caucus in Iowa, a cigarette paper-thin margin

:29:36.:29:38.

which will make many see Bernie Sanders in a new light.

:29:39.:29:45.

The Vermont Senator who grew up in Brooklyn and calls himself

:29:46.:29:48.

socialist is now the unlikely hero of the left across America.

:29:49.:29:53.

Anti-big business, pro environment, and passionate

:29:54.:29:54.

Think Jeremy Corbyn with a New York absent.

:29:55.:30:04.

I think it is the sense of pulling apart that's happening on both sides

:30:05.:30:08.

of the political spectrum in America, where it feels

:30:09.:30:10.

like people are increasingly gravitating towards the extreme

:30:11.:30:13.

polls of the right and the left and the centre is hollowing out.

:30:14.:30:17.

For Democrats it is a return to the '60s and '70s-style

:30:18.:30:20.

radicalism, a rejection of the centrism and triangulation

:30:21.:30:22.

that both Clintons have always represented.

:30:23.:30:28.

And a desire to really be more muscular in their liberal socialist

:30:29.:30:31.

What he's doing is opening up a race that many felt had become

:30:32.:30:37.

Hillary Clinton seems unassailable, unstoppable.

:30:38.:30:43.

There are those in the party even who liked here who worried

:30:44.:30:45.

about a path to the nomination that looked unchallenged.

:30:46.:30:48.

The Clinton machine has been spooked by this.

:30:49.:30:50.

White vote, the activist vote and the young vote on the left. He

:30:51.:31:10.

won... This morning Clinton admitted she had to do better with new and

:31:11.:31:15.

younger voters. Bernie Sanders now calling for a release of the raw

:31:16.:31:21.

vote count in Iowa says his rise is a sign that voters want change. But

:31:22.:31:26.

they might be flirting with him at this stage, confident that Hillary

:31:27.:31:30.

will get the nomination, and seeings what it feels like to dip their toes

:31:31.:31:35.

into the icy waters of real radicalism. Let's examine some of

:31:36.:31:40.

those issues more deeply. Would you see that a.3% finish as a

:31:41.:31:54.

win for Bernie Sanders? A tie is as good as a win when you are the

:31:55.:31:59.

underdog the way he's been. This was Hillary Clinton's state to lose.

:32:00.:32:02.

Even though she didn't technically lose it

:32:03.:32:04.

He calls himself a socialist. What does that mean for people in

:32:05.:32:13.

America? Well, it is much more of an epithet than your viewers are

:32:14.:32:19.

accustomed to. He's been an independent Senator, not

:32:20.:32:21.

traditionally a part of the Democratic Party in Congress. Iowa

:32:22.:32:26.

Democrats are much more progressive, much more rebel than Democrats in

:32:27.:32:30.

the United States. This was a good state for him. A poll showed 43% of

:32:31.:32:36.

the Democratic voters here did use the term socialist. But historically

:32:37.:32:41.

that's been a fight word. You spent a lot of time in Des Moines gearing

:32:42.:32:46.

up for this. You suggested this was going to be like the Hunger Games.

:32:47.:32:51.

Yes, there were 10 republicans in the field, as the vote got close ter

:32:52.:32:57.

gloves came off, the attack ads were saturated on television. Candidates

:32:58.:33:03.

who had never engaged like Ted Cruz and Donald Trump started going after

:33:04.:33:07.

each other in very insulting ways. Last night showed how that came out.

:33:08.:33:11.

If you step back from the last month and asked people what they thought

:33:12.:33:17.

would happen in Iowa, they would probably have said Hillary would win

:33:18.:33:21.

and Ted Cruz would win. Does that mean all the fury and the polling

:33:22.:33:29.

has been for nothing? Ted Cruz got the evangelicals and Hillary the

:33:30.:33:33.

Democratic vote. Most of the money yesterday before the voting was on

:33:34.:33:37.

Donald Trump, who was having a surge in the polls, and on Hillary, who

:33:38.:33:42.

seemed to have a three or 4 point advantage. The results showed the

:33:43.:33:46.

vulnerability and the unpredictability and unreliability,

:33:47.:33:50.

excuse me, of polls these days. Dramatic results on both sides. If

:33:51.:33:56.

we take this forward now, looking at the Democrats race first of all,

:33:57.:34:01.

this idea that Bernie Sanders is fresh blood in the race, if you

:34:02.:34:06.

like. He is somebody that people haven't really seen before. I

:34:07.:34:09.

described it as people dipping their toes into radicalism for the first

:34:10.:34:12.

time. Do you think there is any chance he will see this through to

:34:13.:34:17.

the end? Or do you think the next primaries will end that? He has

:34:18.:34:24.

unleashed a rush of donations. He said the average donation he he has

:34:25.:34:32.

had is $27, and he has had is $27, and he's raised $27 million a

:34:33.:34:35.

quarter. He has the money, unless he loses anywhere. This is a very

:34:36.:34:41.

hospitable playing field, idealogically New Hampshire he will

:34:42.:34:46.

do well at. It is next door to his home state of Vermont, where he is

:34:47.:34:51.

ahead in the polls. The Democratic vote will move to the south.

:34:52.:34:55.

African-American voters support Hillary Clinton now strongly and

:34:56.:34:58.

he'll have to deal with that. If you looking to the republican race, many

:34:59.:35:04.

are saying the real winner is Marco Rubio. Explain why? Iowa was an

:35:05.:35:09.

expectation game. Rubin was stuck in the polls. He came in 23% last

:35:10.:35:15.

night. Anybody who is looking nor a real alternative to Trump or a Ted

:35:16.:35:19.

Cruz, a less Conservative alternative, wants to rally around

:35:20.:35:21.

or coalesce around alternative, wants to rally around

:35:22.:35:26.

Rubin is in a position to take that role. Thank you very much indeed.

:35:27.:35:30.

Rubin is in a position to take that The next race, the

:35:31.:35:32.

Rubin is in a position to take that test will be in

:35:33.:35:35.

Rubin is in a position to take that that, it is next to Vermont. He has

:35:36.:35:39.

a home state advantage there. Perhaps the eyes will be back on to

:35:40.:35:43.

the republican race then. If Donald Trump doesn't win in New Hampshire,

:35:44.:35:49.

people will start to ask whether he becomes that 2016 footnote too.

:35:50.:35:50.

Emily. Thank you. As if to remind us why Zika

:35:51.:35:56.

was declared a world health emergency yesterday,

:35:57.:35:59.

two pieces of news as to its spread A likely case of sexual

:36:00.:36:01.

transmission in Texas - a Dallas County resident who had

:36:02.:36:08.

sexual contact with someone who acquired the Zika infection

:36:09.:36:11.

while travelling abroad. And then, in Ireland,

:36:12.:36:12.

two cases have been in found in people who've had a history

:36:13.:36:15.

of travelling in affected areas. From Oxford, I'm joined

:36:16.:36:17.

by Professor Trudie Lang, principal investigator

:36:18.:36:19.

for the Nuffield Research Centre for prevention and treatment

:36:20.:36:21.

of diseases like Ebola. It is literally a week ago on this

:36:22.:36:31.

programme we were talking about a case of apparent transmission in

:36:32.:36:37.

2008. It seemed outlandish. What do we now know or don't know about

:36:38.:36:41.

sexual transmission? I don't think we are too much further forward than

:36:42.:36:45.

last week really. So this isn't unexamined. It is not particularly

:36:46.:36:51.

surprising. All we know is that there is this apparent transmission

:36:52.:36:55.

between somebody's returned from an infected country and has passed this

:36:56.:37:00.

on through sexual contact. It is not completely confirmed, as I

:37:01.:37:04.

understand, but for us it raises more questions than it answers. We

:37:05.:37:08.

are just adding to the list of research questions we need to tackle

:37:09.:37:14.

within this rapidly emerging and quiet

:37:15.:37:17.

research questions we need to tackle within this rapidly emerging and --

:37:18.:37:21.

quiet worrying suggestion. We got into bodily fluids last week, but

:37:22.:37:24.

there's a suggestion that saliva could be a route to transmission.

:37:25.:37:28.

We've had no reports of that and we need to make it really clear that as

:37:29.:37:34.

far as... With all the information we've got and evidence that we can

:37:35.:37:38.

draw together so far, it suggests that most of the transmission occurs

:37:39.:37:43.

from mosquito bites. We know it is present in semen but remember that

:37:44.:37:49.

most people don't have any symptoms. So presumably the person who came

:37:50.:37:53.

back from the affected country was unwell, which is why he went to be

:37:54.:37:58.

tested, presumably, for Zika, and he has passed it on. We don't know if

:37:59.:38:04.

you are not symptomatic, do you have virus in your fluids? And the

:38:05.:38:10.

question of whether it is in other fluids, it's unlikely. We were

:38:11.:38:14.

fairly confident that the route of transmission is on mosquito bites.

:38:15.:38:17.

That's where the burden of disease is in the region. Right, these cases

:38:18.:38:24.

this evening put the focus on transmission outside what we call

:38:25.:38:29.

the affected areas. Are we quite sure that mosquitoes that exist in,

:38:30.:38:33.

say, in Britain or the British Isles, are we quite sure they would

:38:34.:38:38.

not transmit the virus? We are fairly sure. This is an emerging

:38:39.:38:43.

situation and we need research. This is, as we are saying over and over

:38:44.:38:51.

again, we know that the Aedes mosquito that carries dengue and

:38:52.:38:55.

other diseases occurs in tropical climate. There is no suggestion that

:38:56.:39:01.

it can be transmitted by mosquitoes in the UK or colder climate. There

:39:02.:39:07.

is no evidence to support that. Do we have any knowledge as to how long

:39:08.:39:12.

it lurks in the body? If somebody travelled to Brazil, they come back,

:39:13.:39:17.

they don't want sexual contact with a partner who may potentially be

:39:18.:39:20.

becoming pregnant. How long do they need to wait? We simply don't know.

:39:21.:39:26.

This is why we need a co-operative international research effort to

:39:27.:39:30.

address all these questions. Because there's so many unknowns, still to

:39:31.:39:40.

prove the link with microcephaly and to work on vaccines and drugs to

:39:41.:39:46.

cure this disease. Briefly, the Olympics. It is hard to think this

:39:47.:39:49.

wouldn't have an affect on the willingness of people to travel

:39:50.:39:52.

there. I suppose there's two hopeful elements. One, the climate in Brazil

:39:53.:39:58.

is less favourable toll the Aedes mosquito at that time of year. And

:39:59.:40:03.

also that efforts to reduce the mosquito population might have

:40:04.:40:07.

kicked in. And we may have, the best case scenario is that the epidemic

:40:08.:40:12.

works its way through. But we just need to wait and see. All the travel

:40:13.:40:18.

advice out there already is very sensible. It should help guide

:40:19.:40:23.

people. Professor, thank you very much indeed.

:40:24.:40:25.

Before we move on - a quick look at the papers' reaction

:40:26.:40:28.

It is not going to make great reading for the Prime Minister. The

:40:29.:40:41.

great delusion, says the Daily Mail. The Times says Brussels will have

:40:42.:40:46.

right to reject benefit curbs. And backlash against watered down

:40:47.:40:52.

referendum deal. Financial Times, Cameron faces battle to sell EU deal

:40:53.:41:00.

to sceptical Tory MPs. The Daily Telegraph, Ministers to defy PM on

:41:01.:41:05.

Europe. None of these are looking good for him. The Guardian has one

:41:06.:41:10.

more encouraging for the Prime Minister. Cameron wins May's

:41:11.:41:17.

backing. And Dad's Army deal turns to farce. Who do EU think you are

:41:18.:41:26.

kidding Mr Cameron? Caves in over benefits, brake on laws.

:41:27.:41:28.

We leave you with some rather sinister social media cartoons

:41:29.:41:32.

created by the All-Russia People's Front, the ONF.

:41:33.:41:35.

The cartoons are allegedly part of an anti-corruption drive,

:41:36.:41:39.

and show various Russian public figures being killed

:41:40.:41:42.

by the Russian President in ways befitting their supposed offences.

:41:43.:41:45.

What makes it so disturbing is that the founder

:41:46.:41:47.

of the All Russia People's Front IS President Putin.

:41:48.:41:54.

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