08/02/2016 Newsnight


08/02/2016

The day's headlines with Evan Davis. The New Hampshire primary, the use of big bank notes in crime, Syria, and how Margaret Thatcher may have voted in the European referendum.


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Transcript


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That American election - it's time for Round 2.

:00:00.:00:09.

Tonight, we're in New Hampshire, watching momentum gather for Bernie

:00:10.:00:12.

I ask Hillary Clinton what she makes of it.

:00:13.:00:19.

Can you just explain for us how you understand the momentum towards

:00:20.:00:27.

Bernie, at the moment? Well, you know, I - let me start by saying, I

:00:28.:00:32.

am really happy to see so many young people involved in the political

:00:33.:00:33.

process. Back in the other big

:00:34.:00:35.

contest of 2016 - Europe. The head of the international crime

:00:36.:00:40.

fighters Europol tells us why If UK is no longer a member

:00:41.:00:42.

of the EU, it wouldn't have the same access to that well regulated,

:00:43.:00:48.

well developed capability. I think, therefore, it would make it

:00:49.:00:50.

harder for Britain to fight The great debate on Europe -

:00:51.:00:53.

how would Mrs Thatcher vote in the referendum, and is it

:00:54.:01:04.

sensible to even speculate Two people close to her tell

:01:05.:01:06.

us what they think. Yes, the state votes tomorrow in its

:01:07.:01:17.

presidential election primary. You will be reminded over the next

:01:18.:01:25.

48 hours that the state slogan is Live Free or Die,

:01:26.:01:28.

and it is a state where the hopes of some of the trailing candidates

:01:29.:01:31.

will surely be brutally murdered. But watch the results carefully,

:01:32.:01:36.

because most new presidents - with the some recent exceptions -

:01:37.:01:40.

have risen to that office after winning the New

:01:41.:01:44.

Hampshire contest. Emily is in Manchester,

:01:45.:01:47.

New Hampshire. Good evening from New Hampshire,

:01:48.:01:53.

where voters are preparing to head for the polls in the first

:01:54.:01:56.

primary of the US election. Over the past few weeks,

:01:57.:01:59.

momentum has been gathering for Bernie Sanders, whose soaring

:02:00.:02:02.

lead over Hillary Clinton brought out a sharp rebuke from

:02:03.:02:07.

Bill Clinton this weekend. The Vermont senator believes

:02:08.:02:11.

in new politics and has begun to attract young,

:02:12.:02:16.

female voters in droves. America's answer to Jereym Corbyn

:02:17.:02:20.

with a Brooklyn accent. Tonight, we ask if the momentum

:02:21.:02:24.

is particular to this state or if the revolution of the left

:02:25.:02:30.

speaks to a wider dissatisfaction with American politcs and the need

:02:31.:02:37.

for long-term change. We start tonight in Sanders' home

:02:38.:02:40.

state, neighbouring Vermont. There are different ways

:02:41.:02:46.

of expressing your commitment to a candidate - the T-shirt,

:02:47.:02:49.

the bumper sticker and then A permanent tattoo

:02:50.:02:52.

of his head on your skin. Here in Bernie Sanders'

:02:53.:02:58.

home state of Vermont, they are offering them free to any

:02:59.:03:01.

supporter who wants one. Sure enough, his fans -

:03:02.:03:04.

let's call them Sandernistas - It's Jenny's turn -

:03:05.:03:09.

she's a psychology student I never voted in a presidential

:03:10.:03:15.

election before. I think that even if he doesn't get

:03:16.:03:20.

the nomination, I think that this is just the beginning

:03:21.:03:23.

of something very, very large. "Bernie's got my back",

:03:24.:03:26.

Danika tells me. She peels off the

:03:27.:03:32.

platter to show me. You don't worry that

:03:33.:03:34.

a tattoo is for life, No, I think actually -

:03:35.:03:38.

to me, because he is such a brave person and, like, his message

:03:39.:03:44.

and what he is doing is so iconic The boss has done more than 70

:03:45.:03:47.

this past week. Have you had any really bizarre

:03:48.:03:52.

requests? A middle finger, and just recently

:03:53.:03:55.

someone wanted the It's a little darker

:03:56.:04:01.

than our lightest roast. It's not just tattoos,

:04:02.:04:08.

it's coffee too. The Capital Grounds Cafe

:04:09.:04:13.

is marketing a new flavour they call They give away 20% of what they make

:04:14.:04:16.

to Sanders' veterans. They come in and buy bags,

:04:17.:04:21.

bags and bags every day. What is striking is the absence

:04:22.:04:26.

a party machine behind all this. It's grass roots activism

:04:27.:04:30.

as its most radical. Small businesses who hear Sanders

:04:31.:04:32.

looking out for them Sanders is the man with

:04:33.:04:35.

the momentum right now. His brand of socialism -

:04:36.:04:40.

anti-Wall Street, pro-income equality and cannabis legalisation -

:04:41.:04:42.

appeals to the young The same kind of crowd that voted

:04:43.:04:45.

for Jeremy Corbyn back in September. With his shock of dishevelled hair

:04:46.:04:52.

and specs, he is embraced - or cultivated - as the grumpy

:04:53.:04:55.

Jewish Brooklyn boy out of Seinfeld. Indeed, its creator Larry David

:04:56.:05:01.

frequently impersonates him. The skit on the satirical

:05:02.:05:07.

Saturday Night Live show plays to the perception his voter base

:05:08.:05:17.

is largely Caucasian. The population of New Hampshire,

:05:18.:05:20.

where he has a massive lead, And that is something

:05:21.:05:23.

Hillary Clinton wants This is her last Town Hall

:05:24.:05:31.

appearance before New Hampshire A stage-managed affair that is meant

:05:32.:05:36.

to seem folksy. For half an hour ahead of the event,

:05:37.:05:42.

they have been trying to fill the camera shot behind her

:05:43.:05:48.

with young Asian and black faces - a subliminal reminder of how much

:05:49.:05:51.

wider her appeal base is. I'm still trying to work out

:05:52.:05:53.

whether the questions are all planted when suddenly

:05:54.:05:57.

she chooses me. Can you just explain for us how

:05:58.:06:00.

you understand the momentum Let me start by saying I am really

:06:01.:06:02.

happy to see so many young people I know Senator Sanders has a very

:06:03.:06:08.

big base of young voters, and they are not supporting me,

:06:09.:06:17.

and I just want any of you, and others that you know,

:06:18.:06:21.

to know I am supporting you. Her husband, the former President,

:06:22.:06:27.

wasn't quite so measured, taking aim at Sanders

:06:28.:06:30.

and his supporters, and his Secretary of

:06:31.:06:32.

State Madeleine Albright then chastised young women

:06:33.:06:35.

for not choosing Hilary. Just remember, there is a special

:06:36.:06:39.

place in hell for women These attacks tell you they

:06:40.:06:42.

are spooked by Sanders, and although no-one will say

:06:43.:06:52.

the words out loud, they worry he may be having the same effect

:06:53.:06:55.

on the young and disaffected that In many states, if you declare

:06:56.:06:58.

as an independent voter you can't vote for a Republican or Democrats

:06:59.:07:03.

in the primary contest, but in New Hampshire

:07:04.:07:06.

that is not the care. As an independent, you can go along

:07:07.:07:11.

on the day and vote for which ever In other words, this particular

:07:12.:07:17.

contest has that whole And it's estimated that as many

:07:18.:07:21.

as 40% could be independents here. As with Obama, it's all

:07:22.:07:26.

about whether Sanders can When you talk to Bernie

:07:27.:07:28.

supporters here in Vermont, they say it's not a fad, a passing

:07:29.:07:34.

phase, they like what he has done to the state here as Senator

:07:35.:07:37.

Sanders, and they feel whether or not he wins

:07:38.:07:40.

the nomination, the movement behind And don't forget New Hampshire

:07:41.:07:43.

is Sanders's backyard. A large block of that progressive

:07:44.:07:49.

white vote and people But from here, the race gets faster,

:07:50.:07:52.

and much more racially diverse. Whether the people of South Carolina

:07:53.:08:01.

will be so ready to feel the burn, well, that is where things start

:08:02.:08:05.

to get interesting. Before we get to South Carolina,

:08:06.:08:12.

there's the voting right here. Well, I'm joined now

:08:13.:08:17.

by Nomiki Konst, a Democratic Party analyst and founder

:08:18.:08:21.

of the anti-corruption group The Accountability Project,

:08:22.:08:23.

who describes herself Also here in New Hampshire we have

:08:24.:08:26.

Joe Klein, political columnist for Time magazine and long-time

:08:27.:08:30.

observer of the Clinton family. Starting with you, you heard

:08:31.:08:36.

Madeleine Allbright's line where she said there is a special circle of

:08:37.:08:40.

hell reserved for women who don't work to help women. She was talking

:08:41.:08:45.

to those Sanders' supporters who are female. I respect Madeleine all

:08:46.:08:52.

bright. She's a crusader for women all around the world. I enjoy that

:08:53.:08:56.

quote when it's used in different ways. I don't think that's the right

:08:57.:09:02.

setting. Other Hillary supporters have said that has well. The problem

:09:03.:09:06.

with the millennium femme nists is that they don't feel included in the

:09:07.:09:09.

process. They feel that the institution of the Democratic Party

:09:10.:09:12.

has been running candidates that are out of touch with their concerns and

:09:13.:09:16.

their needs and they weren't there to fight for them in key moments,

:09:17.:09:20.

because they were more concerned with winning, more concerned with

:09:21.:09:23.

working with the other side. Working with the other side is very

:09:24.:09:26.

important, but you have to have a back bone. So, from my perspective

:09:27.:09:33.

as a Bernie supporters, I support him because he's attacking the root

:09:34.:09:38.

cause of income inequality, the root cause of gender inequality. That's

:09:39.:09:41.

Wall Street. They're campaigning against equal pay. When you see the

:09:42.:09:46.

big guns coming out, Clinton, Allbright, Hillary Clinton doesn't

:09:47.:09:49.

need those people... Is she a big gun? I thought what she said is

:09:50.:09:54.

outrageous. She wouldn't say that about Marine Le Pen would she? She

:09:55.:10:02.

was just saying it about Bernie and about Hillary. Feminism has been the

:10:03.:10:06.

most successful political movement in my lifetime. We're going to see a

:10:07.:10:13.

woman president before very long. Women are markedly

:10:14.:10:15.

woman president before very long. I can tell you that. To even -

:10:16.:10:20.

that's so 25 years ago what she said. Why are the women, I know the

:10:21.:10:27.

tattoo parlour is not represented, but a lot of young women coming in

:10:28.:10:31.

and they're all talking about Bernie Sanders, not Hillary Clinton, when

:10:32.:10:36.

Shh... It should be -- should be "her moment". Millenniums are very

:10:37.:10:41.

familiar with her. She's been part of their lives since they were born.

:10:42.:10:46.

They are looking for a woman to rise up. It would be important for the

:10:47.:10:50.

Democratic Party to take note. We need a bench of women, not just one

:10:51.:10:57.

woman or three women. I agree on some points, are superior, but we

:10:58.:11:01.

have a lot of work to do. Similar to LGBT issues. They've had a very

:11:02.:11:06.

successful campaign. Women have been fighting for 25 years who aren't

:11:07.:11:11.

ready to move over. I want to talk about the actual campaign. We're

:11:12.:11:17.

hearing now from politicalo, that Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton are

:11:18.:11:20.

not happy with the way it's going, there's going to be strategy

:11:21.:11:24.

changes. That's never happened before (! ) Every single campaign.

:11:25.:11:29.

What they're talking about is some dissatisfaction with their pollster.

:11:30.:11:33.

They fired their pollster in the last election. They go through

:11:34.:11:37.

pollsters the way through people go through underwear. This is a pretty

:11:38.:11:43.

classic Clinton campaign. The problem, her big problem is this:

:11:44.:11:50.

She was, when she was in her youth, she was the moral equivalent of a

:11:51.:11:55.

Bernie Sanders supporter. She supported George McGovern. She

:11:56.:12:01.

worked for him in Texas. I asked her what would you, how would you

:12:02.:12:04.

convince the younger version of yourself to vote for you now? And it

:12:05.:12:11.

isn't an easy answer. Her strengths is the fact that she works like a

:12:12.:12:16.

dog. She knows an awful lot. She knows the world in a way that Bernie

:12:17.:12:20.

doesn't. And those are tough things to get across to younger people. Is

:12:21.:12:24.

this the beginning of a game changer? When we talk about

:12:25.:12:28.

momentum, this is the kind of momentum that we saw for Obama in

:12:29.:12:32.

2008, reaching voters that nobody had reached before. But the

:12:33.:12:36.

difference is that Barack Obama was a moderate. Hillary was to his left

:12:37.:12:43.

on health care, if you remember. In this case, we'll see what happens.

:12:44.:12:48.

I've seen this happen once in my lifetime, that was George McGovern.

:12:49.:12:53.

As a result the Democratic Party was ruined for 20 years. The difference

:12:54.:12:57.

is there, just to make note, the country was a much more conservative

:12:58.:13:02.

country in the 60s. Today the country is more progressive on

:13:03.:13:05.

social issues. That's where the cue for the Democratic Party is. They

:13:06.:13:09.

need to move further to the left, not start at the middle and

:13:10.:13:13.

negotiate to the left. I think social issues are not what this

:13:14.:13:16.

campaign will be about. The Republicans are moving to the left

:13:17.:13:20.

on things like gay marriage, scurrying to the left. What we have

:13:21.:13:28.

to be thinking about is how do you counteract a nativist,

:13:29.:13:30.

anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim movement. Just over there, Donald

:13:31.:13:34.

Trump's having a rally tonight and there are going to be thousands of

:13:35.:13:38.

people there. Do you think that's where the Republican nomination is

:13:39.:13:43.

going to end up? I don't know if he can win it. They have about a third

:13:44.:13:46.

of their constituents in his corner. The rest of the party will have to

:13:47.:13:49.

consolidate against that. I think that whoever gets the nomination is

:13:50.:13:54.

going to move in that direction toward a kind of nativist,

:13:55.:14:00.

anti-immigrant, no nothing, what the movement has historically been

:14:01.:14:04.

called here -- know nothing. Do we think we will see Michael Bloomberg

:14:05.:14:12.

enter the race? There's only one thing that he would do if he came

:14:13.:14:18.

into this race, if it was Trump versus Bernie sort of race, he would

:14:19.:14:22.

elect Donald Trump president. That would truly be tragic. I don't know

:14:23.:14:27.

about that. Nothing is worse than having two billionaires in the race

:14:28.:14:31.

talking about income inequality. Good point. Hey, I won one! In six

:14:32.:14:41.

hours' time, the polls open here. There are tiny places, about 35

:14:42.:14:45.

voters in all there, but they will be the first ones to go to the polls

:14:46.:14:48.

and those results will probably be in by the time you wake up tomorrow

:14:49.:14:50.

morning. David Cameron's reported pro-EU

:14:51.:14:53.

referendum campaign is apparently going to focus on security -

:14:54.:14:55.

or scaring the hell out of people Today, for example, he said EU

:14:56.:14:58.

withdrawal could help terrorists by undermining European

:14:59.:15:05.

security co-operation. Not that the campaign has started

:15:06.:15:09.

yet, you understand. Now it so happens that the man

:15:10.:15:12.

responsible for security cooperation He's a Brit called Rob Wainright,

:15:13.:15:14.

and he's the director of Europol, But before we got on to that,

:15:15.:15:19.

we discussed a more down-to-earth problem on his mind,

:15:20.:15:39.

the small matter of big banknotes - The issue is: Who are

:15:40.:15:42.

high-denomination notes for, except drug dealers,

:15:43.:15:45.

money launderers, human traffickers and

:15:46.:15:47.

organised criminals? Today, an eminent former banker

:15:48.:15:49.

published a paper arguing These high-denomination banknotes

:15:50.:15:51.

are no longer used very much They're used for a tiny

:15:52.:15:57.

percentage of transactions. However, they are the preferred

:15:58.:16:03.

means of payment for criminals, tax evaders, terrorists

:16:04.:16:08.

and those who are giving No-one can say

:16:09.:16:10.

they weren't warned. Whereas a million quid in 50 pound

:16:11.:16:17.

notes has the bulk of say, A million quid in euros

:16:18.:16:26.

will be smaller than one. Crime fighters like Europol's Rob

:16:27.:16:29.

Wainright think it's an important issue - as he explained when I sat

:16:30.:16:37.

down with him earlier. Why does anyone need a 500 euro

:16:38.:16:41.

note, given that most of us have I would be surprised

:16:42.:16:44.

if many of the viewers have seen one or done a business

:16:45.:16:48.

transaction in one. To be fair, in some eurozone

:16:49.:16:49.

countries like Germany, there is a different cultural

:16:50.:16:52.

background and practise That doesn't explain why,

:16:53.:16:53.

when we are moving to generally a cashless economy, the amount

:16:54.:16:58.

of 500 euro notes that have been produced and circulated

:16:59.:17:00.

is still increasing year on year, and accounts for one third

:17:01.:17:03.

of the value of all euro You know, these are big issues

:17:04.:17:05.

to be explained away. You must be a bit annoyed

:17:06.:17:10.

about Luxembourg in particular, I think produced almost

:17:11.:17:16.

twice its GDP in 500 euro That is an extraordinary bit of note

:17:17.:17:19.

issue by Luxembourg. Our report showed that,

:17:20.:17:25.

but across the eurozone as a whole, you know, we didn't really get

:17:26.:17:27.

information that satisfied us as to what the legitimate use was,

:17:28.:17:30.

while we are getting more and more evidence of the way

:17:31.:17:34.

in which criminals are using it in particular, so I think serious

:17:35.:17:38.

questions are being asked. A lot of evidence now,

:17:39.:17:43.

and I hope the European Central Bank will take a long hard

:17:44.:17:46.

look at this issue. It is interesting that we got

:17:47.:17:48.

into this in the first place, though, because it was predicted

:17:49.:17:51.

by some, it was talked about that this was going to be

:17:52.:17:54.

something that would happen, you were creating something much

:17:55.:17:56.

bigger than the 100 dollar bill, which might have been the currency

:17:57.:17:59.

of choice until the euro came along, It is odd that the Europeans allowed

:18:00.:18:02.

this to happen. What I am presenting is simply

:18:03.:18:07.

the view from the police world, about how we see this as something

:18:08.:18:13.

that is definitely facilitating criminal,

:18:14.:18:16.

and to a certain extent activity. Terrorism, obviously,

:18:17.:18:20.

a global phenomenon. In Europe there are National Police

:18:21.:18:23.

forces and then Europol sits But you don't have the power

:18:24.:18:26.

to arrest people, do you? No, instead we provide

:18:27.:18:33.

an intelligence gateway that connects over 600 different agencies

:18:34.:18:35.

exchanging intelligence That allows us to track better

:18:36.:18:39.

what is increasingly Britain is in the early stage

:18:40.:18:43.

of a debate about whether it should be in the European Union,

:18:44.:18:49.

and one of the reasons many people don't want to be is they feel

:18:50.:18:52.

there is a creeping pace So you are saying, if we stay in,

:18:53.:18:55.

you do not think it will happen, that we will get a European police

:18:56.:19:00.

force, that British voters will not be able to control

:19:01.:19:03.

or have any sway over? No, we have just reformed Europol

:19:04.:19:08.

and given it a new legal framework and it is not as a European FBI,

:19:09.:19:11.

it is something that is very operational in nature,

:19:12.:19:15.

in terms of giving them tools that the national authorities need

:19:16.:19:17.

to fight fight crime and terrorism. You know, and the current

:19:18.:19:20.

British Government has consciously opted into that new version

:19:21.:19:22.

of European police force - European police cross-border

:19:23.:19:24.

cooperation centre, because it has decided that is what it needs

:19:25.:19:26.

in the face of an increased international threat

:19:27.:19:29.

from terrorism and crime. David Cameron has warned that

:19:30.:19:39.

Britain might lose information on what I think he called

:19:40.:19:41.

"terrorists running round Europe". I think what the Prime Minister's

:19:42.:19:44.

referring to, of course, is the extent to which over the last

:19:45.:19:51.

three or four decades there has developed in Europe a sophisticated

:19:52.:19:55.

architecture for sharing intelligence, and co-operating

:19:56.:19:57.

in the fight against Europol alone, we are helping

:19:58.:19:59.

to co-ordinate 40,000 cases I think if the UK is no

:20:00.:20:06.

longer a member of the UK, it wouldn't have the same access

:20:07.:20:10.

to that well-regulated, I think, therefore, it would make it

:20:11.:20:12.

harder for Britain to fight I am sure Britain can respond

:20:13.:20:18.

with alternative arrangements, but they will be more costly,

:20:19.:20:21.

and they will not be as effective, I think that is probably

:20:22.:20:24.

what the Prime Minister is saying. There has been some talk

:20:25.:20:30.

about the Norwegian model of not The Norwegians, they are not

:20:31.:20:33.

full members of Europol but they have an association

:20:34.:20:36.

agreement with Europol that puts Well, certainly not in the middle,

:20:37.:20:38.

at the periphery, because they are not full members,

:20:39.:20:47.

so they don't have direct access to database in the way the UK

:20:48.:20:49.

currently has, they are not leading any intelligence projects,

:20:50.:20:52.

they don't have people So you know, it's a model

:20:53.:20:54.

of membership, but as I said earlier, certainly not one

:20:55.:20:58.

that is as effective as the one that the UK and other member

:20:59.:21:01.

states currently enjoy. Are you going to be public about how

:21:02.:21:04.

you will vote in the referendum? I think people listening

:21:05.:21:08.

to you will probably draw their own conclusions

:21:09.:21:10.

and believe they know how you will vote, but will you be

:21:11.:21:12.

public, or will you stand back This is not about me,

:21:13.:21:15.

this is about the future of Britain in Europe,

:21:16.:21:20.

and in this particular part of it, about making sure

:21:21.:21:22.

that we have the most secure platform to protect British

:21:23.:21:25.

businesses, and citizens from ever more dangerous threats of terrorism

:21:26.:21:27.

and other forms of serious crime. Of course I will be voting

:21:28.:21:30.

for the UK to remain part of the EU because of what I see on an every

:21:31.:21:34.

day basis about the benefits, and particularly in my world,

:21:35.:21:37.

that the UK is getting from the EU. Rob Wainwright, thanks

:21:38.:21:43.

for your company. You might have thought the Syrian

:21:44.:21:49.

war had reached a kind of stalemate. Well, in the last few days,

:21:50.:21:52.

things have changed. With Russian help, the Assad

:21:53.:21:54.

government has made gains, and it is causing problems

:21:55.:21:56.

for refugees, for Turkey, where they want to escape

:21:57.:21:58.

to and possibly for Europe beyond. Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban,

:21:59.:22:01.

reports on the changing situation In fighting round Aleppo, Syria's

:22:02.:22:18.

biggest city, President Assad's forces have been making progress.

:22:19.:22:23.

Supported by hundreds of Russian air strikes, they have taken the

:22:24.:22:26.

initiative just as diplomacy has stalled.

:22:27.:22:33.

We saw during the last week, during the last several days they have

:22:34.:22:38.

basically waited to the failure of the negotiation process, I can

:22:39.:22:42.

assume within a certain time period, if the Russians managed to, well, to

:22:43.:22:48.

put enough military pressure on this Saudi supported opposition, and if

:22:49.:22:52.

they agree to launch a negotiation process, probably we will see the

:22:53.:22:55.

intensity of fighting on the ground going down.

:22:56.:22:59.

Since last autumn, the Syrian Army, with Russian air support has been

:23:00.:23:03.

engaging in a multi-pronged offensive. By November, they had

:23:04.:23:07.

broken through to an air base south-east of Aleppo, in January

:23:08.:23:11.

they started making gains in a province and a couple of days ago,

:23:12.:23:17.

cut the rebel corridor into Aleppo. All of this bombing and ground

:23:18.:23:21.

fighting has led hundreds of thousands to leave their homes, some

:23:22.:23:25.

estimates put it as high as three-quarters of a million people,

:23:26.:23:28.

with anything up to ?100,000 thousand moving in the past week.

:23:29.:23:36.

Week. Into an area south of Turkey. That all exacerbates tensions

:23:37.:23:39.

between their Government and Russia. Since the Downing of Russian plane

:23:40.:23:45.

by Turkey, because of its violation of the Turkish airspace last

:23:46.:23:52.

October, the relationship between Ankara and Moscow has become

:23:53.:23:58.

confrontational. So much so, it is now functioning as a dePacteau safe

:23:59.:24:03.

zone against Turkey. That is limiting Turkey's ability to project

:24:04.:24:10.

power across the border. As for how many people are trapped, between

:24:11.:24:13.

advancing pro Assad forces on the Turkish border, it is certainly in

:24:14.:24:19.

the tens of thousands. Turkey has stopped them coming in, caught

:24:20.:24:23.

between this fresh humanitarian crisis, and apprenticeship to stop

:24:24.:24:31.

refugees moving on to Europe. Chancellor Merkel visiting Turkey

:24:32.:24:34.

today, vented her frustration with the Syrian Government, and its

:24:35.:24:40.

Russian backers. TRANSLATION: We are now over the

:24:41.:24:44.

last few days not only appalled by shocked by the human suffering is of

:24:45.:24:48.

tens of thousands of people through bombing attack, and also bombing

:24:49.:24:51.

attacks originating from the Russian side.

:24:52.:24:58.

As to what people are fleeing, the UN panel today reported on gross

:24:59.:25:02.

human rights abuses by all sides in the Syrian conflict. It accused the

:25:03.:25:07.

Government of crimes against humanity and called for sanctions

:25:08.:25:12.

against senior Syrian officials. The mass scale of deaths suggests that

:25:13.:25:19.

the Government of Syria is responsible for acts that amount to

:25:20.:25:23.

crimes against humanity. Turkey may well have to open its border to let

:25:24.:25:28.

in the new wave of refugees, ideas of establishing a safe haven inside

:25:29.:25:32.

Syria long favoured by the Turkish Government now seem to have been

:25:33.:25:37.

forgotten. There is a very real risk that creating that type of buffer

:25:38.:25:42.

zone could spark conflict between Turkey and Russia R We are dealing

:25:43.:25:47.

with two political systems headed by the leaders who sometimes are led

:25:48.:25:52.

not by the logic of the event, not by the pragmatism, but I would say

:25:53.:25:57.

by the way, how they feel, by their passion.

:25:58.:26:03.

There are some, in western foreign defence ministries who privately

:26:04.:26:08.

hope Russia's backing of President Assad might finely brings the Civil

:26:09.:26:12.

War to an end. So far it is up to the suffering without a clear

:26:13.:26:15.

The Daily Mail writer Peter Oborne has just returned from Syria's

:26:16.:26:18.

largest city - or once largest - Aleppo.

:26:19.:26:20.

He's written vividly about the destruction

:26:21.:26:21.

and destitution he found there, and he's with me now.

:26:22.:26:28.

Thank you for coming in. We have some of the photos which we will

:26:29.:26:35.

show awe you speak, but it is amazing you can get in and find a

:26:36.:26:39.

hotel to stay in when you are there Yes, it is a difficult journey from

:26:40.:26:44.

Damascus but they have re-opened the road in. They have lifted the siege

:26:45.:26:49.

of Aleppo, you are able to get in, and there is a hotel called the pull

:26:50.:26:54.

man hotel, freezing cold, very damp, I was the only guest there, apart

:26:55.:27:03.

from a French TV journalist, and no hot water. There is electricity

:27:04.:27:08.

about eight hours a day I reckoned. The internet doesn't work so you are

:27:09.:27:14.

pretty isolated. The population of Aleppo is, it has plummeted. It is

:27:15.:27:17.

less than half what it was. It is shocking. You get a sense of a city

:27:18.:27:25.

where the population has gone, and particularly among the Christians,

:27:26.:27:30.

down from about 200,000, before the crisis, wonderful ancient Christian

:27:31.:27:32.

community going down. We are looking at some of the pictures there. The

:27:33.:27:39.

rubble left. Empty streets. My regime minder took that. I wandered

:27:40.:27:45.

round. The Christian population down from 200,000 to about 20,000. I

:27:46.:27:52.

talked to the pastors, desperate to get their congregations to stay, and

:27:53.:27:56.

the imams desperate to get them to stay but it is very hard. Who has

:27:57.:28:00.

stayed? There are still hundreds of thousands of people in Aleppo, who

:28:01.:28:06.

are they? Almost everybody seems to be a government employee, teachers,

:28:07.:28:12.

lots and lots of refugees, from the east of the city, who fled news a or

:28:13.:28:16.

the Free Syrian Army. They fled the rebels to get into the Government

:28:17.:28:22.

part. Aleppo university, there are 20 great big dormitory block, 17 are

:28:23.:28:28.

full of refugees, ten or 20 to a little room for two people, and I

:28:29.:28:34.

wandered round there. So like Agatha Christie's hotel where she wrote her

:28:35.:28:40.

novel, the Baron Hotel the refugee, they have harrowing stories. You

:28:41.:28:45.

said no basic amenities in your hotel. What about important

:28:46.:28:51.

amenities like drinking water? Yes, there is no water, running water

:28:52.:28:56.

coming into Aleppo. It is the plant has been stopped by Isis, and so

:28:57.:29:03.

what you see everywhere is digging wells, people carting water round,

:29:04.:29:07.

and, it is a huge expense, because you have to buy it from the private

:29:08.:29:11.

sector because state water has gone. You say the siege, it is not under

:29:12.:29:15.

siege, because people think of Aleppo being under siege but it has

:29:16.:29:19.

not. It has been reported widely. What has happened, this is the urn

:29:20.:29:23.

thing point probably of the war s that the Turkish border, the supply

:29:24.:29:28.

line to Isis, news racks, to the Jihadi groups and the FSA has been

:29:29.:29:34.

blocked and it has been encircled by the Syrian army, plus with the great

:29:35.:29:40.

help from the Russian, and so it is alnews a is under siege now, instead

:29:41.:29:46.

of the other way round, and, Aleppo was under siege most of the winner,

:29:47.:29:50.

nobody reported that, you couldn't get in or out from Damascus or

:29:51.:29:55.

anywhere else. Now it is suddenly, the, the opposition forces who are

:29:56.:29:59.

being besieged, that becomes a story, it tells you which side the

:30:00.:30:00.

media has been on. You met an interesting journalist

:30:01.:30:08.

when you were there, tell us his story. Yes a wonderful old boy. I

:30:09.:30:14.

asked, "Where's the newspaper? I was told there's one paper left. There

:30:15.:30:20.

had been 35. This old boy started out in 1960, 35 papers. I went into

:30:21.:30:27.

his office, up some old smelly stairs. He said, his story was, it

:30:28.:30:35.

was a daily paper, flourishing before the war. A weekly paper then,

:30:36.:30:40.

paper shortages. The journalists started to get threatened. They go

:30:41.:30:44.

on the net. There's no internet. Right and they told me they do it

:30:45.:30:49.

through 3 G, that's beyond me. It's a mobile thing. You go there, you

:30:50.:30:55.

see it with your own eyes, we've been hearing about it, in just a few

:30:56.:30:59.

sentences, has it changed your view of anything, your way of looking at

:31:00.:31:06.

the conflict at all? You meet these amazing stories of heroism, for

:31:07.:31:10.

instance, I went to the Education Department. I met this teacher. She

:31:11.:31:16.

spent five days making her journey which before the war had taken 40

:31:17.:31:23.

minutes to get from east Aleppo and, to get her wages. She was going to

:31:24.:31:28.

go back. Isis-held area. She said Syrian forces were advancing and

:31:29.:31:32.

will shortly reach it. She said, "I will be held along with my husband

:31:33.:31:36.

and children as a human shield." And she was going back. The heroism, I

:31:37.:31:41.

felt, just the stoicism and bravery and you're always meeting - the

:31:42.:31:44.

doctors were wonderful in the hospital. You meet these incredible

:31:45.:31:45.

people. Thank you very much. Celebrity endorsement

:31:46.:31:49.

is likely to play some part But what about the endorsements

:31:50.:31:51.

from beyond the grave? A strange battle has opened up

:31:52.:31:56.

on how Margaret Thatcher would vote It was prompted by a piece

:31:57.:31:59.

in the Sunday Times from her former The debate maybe gives us more

:32:00.:32:04.

insight into the opinions of those arguing about it, than of

:32:05.:32:13.

the Iron Lady herself. Our political editor,

:32:14.:32:15.

David Grossman, has been looking Trying to work out what Kier Hardy

:32:16.:32:25.

would have made of Twitter or basha kan castle's view of the Qatar World

:32:26.:32:30.

Cup seems like a dull parlour game. One deceased boll Titian's view of

:32:31.:32:37.

-- politician's view of matters is now sought. If you want to own a bit

:32:38.:32:41.

of Mrs Thatcher history you could worse than this place, her London

:32:42.:32:44.

residence after she left Downing Street. On the market for something

:32:45.:32:49.

like ?30 million. But her political legacy is priceless, worth far more

:32:50.:32:54.

to the remain campaign and leave campaign, each side in the

:32:55.:32:58.

referendum wants to claim that she would have voted their way. Writing

:32:59.:33:03.

in the Sunday Times yesterday, her former advisor suggested she might

:33:04.:33:07.

have raged more mightily during the negotiations than David Cameron, but

:33:08.:33:10.

ultimately she would have gone along with what is on offer, indeed

:33:11.:33:14.

negotiated something similar herself in. Reply, Lord young, who served in

:33:15.:33:19.

Mrs Thatcher's Cabinet said, "If Margaret were with us today she may

:33:20.:33:27.

not lead Brexit, she may cajole the campaign leaders to get their act

:33:28.:33:30.

together and when the day came would vote out." So what's the truth? Who

:33:31.:33:36.

better to adjudicate than the man she chose to write her story. As her

:33:37.:33:41.

biographer, I always make sure never to say what Margaret Thatcher would

:33:42.:33:44.

have done because I don't know. What I do know is what she did do. It's

:33:45.:33:48.

interesting that people want to raise this question all the time. I

:33:49.:33:54.

understand why. Because she went on a long journey about Europe, which

:33:55.:34:00.

had many rocky places and pit falls. She learned a lot. She changed her

:34:01.:34:06.

mind quite a lot. The starting point of that journey found form in

:34:07.:34:11.

knitwear, campaigning here in 1975 for Britain to stay in what was then

:34:12.:34:16.

the European economic community. It's very fitting that you should

:34:17.:34:21.

keep an all-night vigil, under the statue of Sir Winston Churchill, the

:34:22.:34:26.

first person to have the great vision of working together for peace

:34:27.:34:33.

in Europe. But as the European project became more about political

:34:34.:34:38.

union and pooled sovereignty, Margaret Thatcher famously resisted.

:34:39.:34:46.

No, no, no. She came very much to dislike European methods of doing

:34:47.:34:49.

business. She thought this is a male club. This is a load of men having

:34:50.:34:54.

dinner to decide everything, the fate of the people. You don't know

:34:55.:34:58.

what department she is. I tell you, you don't know what department she

:34:59.:35:04.

is. Her lecture before the first course, caused some surprise... I

:35:05.:35:09.

made mistakes and I learned to fight. And I win. She became opposed

:35:10.:35:19.

to the single currency and advocated a wider and looser European Union,

:35:20.:35:25.

incorporating the newly emancipated Eastern Bloc countries. She never

:35:26.:35:29.

advocated leaving the European Community as it was then, the whole

:35:30.:35:33.

time she was in office. She did advocate that after she left office,

:35:34.:35:37.

only privately. She said it to me, for example, and to many others. She

:35:38.:35:41.

was advised that at that stage of her career, it would be too

:35:42.:35:45.

explosive and difficult and she was too old and not terribly well and

:35:46.:35:49.

all that sort of thing, it was really too late. But this is what

:35:50.:35:53.

she came to believe. That contrasts between how she felt in office and

:35:54.:35:59.

how she felt after retiring is an interesting one. Why does this

:36:00.:36:04.

matter in in the crowd to wave off Margaret Thatcher from central

:36:05.:36:08.

office on her last visit as PM was a young David Cameron. He cheered her

:36:09.:36:14.

enthusiastically then. But plenty of his party's activists and supporters

:36:15.:36:18.

now still trust her instincts on Europe more than his. So summoning

:36:19.:36:23.

up a Thatcher endorsement for his deal would be precious indeed.

:36:24.:36:28.

With me now are Lord Powell, private secretary and advisor

:36:29.:36:31.

on foreign affairs and defense to Margaret Thatcher from 1983-91,

:36:32.:36:36.

and Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a Eurosceptic and Conservative Party

:36:37.:36:39.

Good evening. Some have criticised you for Daning to say what she would

:36:40.:36:53.

have thought when none of us really know. You have to admit, none of us

:36:54.:36:58.

knows. Anyone bothered to read my article, the third sentence says,

:36:59.:37:02.

"we can't possibly know" it's not as though I didn't realise that. A

:37:03.:37:06.

Cabinet minister said to me, look, I can't go along with this. Margaret

:37:07.:37:09.

Thatcher would never have agrowed to it. That made me sit down and think.

:37:10.:37:13.

I'm in the a member of any campaign. I'm not for, against. I'm not a

:37:14.:37:17.

political party member. I just thought about. It I thought about

:37:18.:37:21.

her history in Europe. Much of it came out in your film. She was in

:37:22.:37:25.

the Government that took us into Europe. She led the Conservative

:37:26.:37:31.

Party campaign to stay in Europe at the last referendum. She could have

:37:32.:37:35.

decided then we should come out. No, she was enthusiastic, in favour. For

:37:36.:37:40.

12 years as Prime Minister she fought, by God how she fought, to

:37:41.:37:43.

get advantages for Britain in Europe and change Europe in ways that

:37:44.:37:47.

suited Britain. It's not really very surprising that one thinks that

:37:48.:37:50.

maybe she would opt to stay in Europe and go on trying to change it

:37:51.:37:54.

for the better. For the record, are you going to vote or support the

:37:55.:37:57.

remain side in the campaign? I don't know. I will see what's on offer. I

:37:58.:38:05.

had assumed you were really learning your opinion of the referendum.

:38:06.:38:08.

No-one's interested in my opinion, but I thought they might be

:38:09.:38:10.

interested in what might be Margaret Thatcher's. Do you buy what we've

:38:11.:38:14.

just heard? I don't think we can know. I agrow

:38:15.:38:16.

just heard? I don't think we can sentence, I don't think we should

:38:17.:38:20.

invoke the dead, whether it's Churchill, Maggie Thatcher or other

:38:21.:38:23.

wonderful politicians in this country or on the other side if you

:38:24.:38:28.

want to invoke that Hitler wanted a united Europe. These are ridiculous

:38:29.:38:32.

things that we just can't know. How should she have voted? Let's think

:38:33.:38:38.

of Thatcherism as an ethos, not just what she thought, how should a

:38:39.:38:43.

Thatcherite vote? In my view of Thatcher's legacy is to believe this

:38:44.:38:47.

the sovereignty of our nation and the freedom of the individual. And

:38:48.:38:52.

to believe incredibly strongly in democracy. In my view, you cannot

:38:53.:39:00.

have democracy without a demos and Europe has no dome hose to back up a

:39:01.:39:04.

democracy. We have to lock out for our own nation and have this

:39:05.:39:08.

referendum where one man, one vote and see what the result S A couple

:39:09.:39:14.

of comments, I think you're being a little severe. We frequently cite

:39:15.:39:20.

19th century politician's views on foreign policy issues. We cite

:39:21.:39:27.

Canning... We saw Mr Thatcher invoking... It's totally

:39:28.:39:33.

permissible. I think quoting someone and speculating as to what they

:39:34.:39:37.

would do in different situations are two very different things. In some

:39:38.:39:41.

ways isn't it interesting, because if you see the EU as a free trade

:39:42.:39:50.

thing, with a lot of what people, Thatcher's disposition would say is

:39:51.:39:54.

annoying baggage, but free trade thing. Or you might see it as a lot

:39:55.:39:59.

of annoying baggage with a bit of free trade. Is that the schism

:40:00.:40:03.

between different this afternoonerites? I think it's --

:40:04.:40:08.

Thatcherites. I think it's more pernicious. It's a lack of

:40:09.:40:13.

democratic answerability. It's a superpower trying to control our

:40:14.:40:17.

nation. It's removing our freedom to control our borders, ultimately it

:40:18.:40:22.

will remove our controls on our own financial systems and the ever

:40:23.:40:25.

closer union has not been removed from the treaties under this

:40:26.:40:29.

renegotiation. It is there and that's the direction Europe will be

:40:30.:40:33.

heading. I think Margaret Thatcher saw being in Europe largely as

:40:34.:40:37.

strategic terms. Particularly at a time when we were threatened by the

:40:38.:40:41.

Soviet Union. She believed in drawing together the European

:40:42.:40:46.

countries. Of course in Nato for defence purposes, but in EU to be

:40:47.:40:50.

sure we didn't go to war with each other again in the future and we

:40:51.:40:54.

were a solid block. That was a sensible thing to add to the trade

:40:55.:40:58.

aspect of. It she saw it as an organisation which produced specific

:40:59.:41:01.

advantages for Britain. She would now, I believe, see that we have

:41:02.:41:07.

managed to get out of so many of the unpleasant bits of Europe, the

:41:08.:41:10.

things that you object to. You know, we are not in the single currency.

:41:11.:41:16.

We are not in the Schengen union. We are only about half members any way.

:41:17.:41:21.

Why such a great objection to being semidetached members. Can I ask a

:41:22.:41:26.

quick question on the issue of, could there be a British

:41:27.:41:28.

Parliamentary block on issues coming out of the EU. Boris Johnson seems

:41:29.:41:33.

behind that. Does that work? I don't believe it can work, no. It's a

:41:34.:41:38.

chalice that the faithful have sought for a long time. The fact is,

:41:39.:41:42.

if we reach agreements, they are international agreements, they're

:41:43.:41:44.

binding agreements, they're registered with the UN. Sadly, I

:41:45.:41:49.

think in terms of law, then - You can't pick and choose. Parliament

:41:50.:41:54.

remains supreme. They could denounce the treaty and we could exit. You

:41:55.:41:58.

can't have bits of it. Thank you both very much.

:41:59.:42:08.

James O'Brien is here tomorrow. Until then, very good night.

:42:09.:42:10.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.

The New Hampshire primary, the use of big bank notes in crime, Syria, and how Margaret Thatcher may have voted in the European referendum.


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