26/02/2016 Newsnight


26/02/2016

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Tonight, is the EU referendum going to be won by fear?

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And if so, which side stands to gain?

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You could see interest rates go up, food prices go up, family finances

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threatened. Those are risks, and I think people need to weigh up the

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risks. threats to make their point,

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how on earth do the rest of us French authorities start clearing

:00:32.:00:35.

the Jungle at Calais after a court upholds

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the government's plan What is going on is French officials

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are going around with a map of France saying, you could live in any

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one of these places, you could go to a migrant centre, but he is saying,

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I don't want to leave. On Artsnight, Lynn Barber talks

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to two comedians about comedy and mental illness -

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Catastrophe's Rob Delaney and Ruby When you are really ill, you can't

:00:59.:01:11.

move, and before that, you have a racing mind, but when you are on the

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way down, you have a racing mind, and they used to show up to events

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to say, I am perfectly fine, look how popular I am!

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In a week that feels longer than a month,

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Come down on the side of security and safety and certainty.

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Because in this reformed European Union, we know

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Of course there will be people who try to spread alarm and anxiety.

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We had much the same sort of thing when the decision came

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I have no other agenda, I have no other agenda.

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I think it's quite likely that during that month they would say,

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let's talk some more, let's see if we can reach

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a different agreement, perhaps you could have a second referendum.

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Net migration continues into Britain at

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And from the European Union we have zero control.

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It's not for me, for me, a matter of numbers,

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it's a matter of the type of people we want in this country.

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We benefit from scale, we benefit from the standardisation,

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It helps us to reduce our cost base and allows us to be

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We will be more secure, I think.

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is impossible to argue that we won't be.

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So, the white men of Westminster have spoken.

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And now the rest of the country has to make sense of it.

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But did any of the noise cut through?

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Tonight, after a week in which both sides have deployed fears

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of security, illegality, economic ruin, we're trying to make

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sense of the strategy each side is using to sell their argument.

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Do the characters, giant as they may be, pull you one way or another?

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Or do you still feel like you're fumbling around in the dark

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like an inexperienced teenager on a blind date?

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Here to join us are Kiri Kankhwende, Jim Waterson, Toby Young and Anne

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Lovely to have you all here. Kiri, it is extraordinary to think that

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this time last week it was all kicking off. The idea characterise

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the shape of the arguments? It seemed like Punch and Judy, like a

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lot of men lining up to take shots at each other, and I think what has

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been lost heart of this is that it is a momentous decision, one of the

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biggest decisions many of us will make in our lifetime, and the big

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issues haven't cut through. Why do you think that is? I think it has

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been caught up in personality politics. It has been very dominated

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by... Almost as if whoever is more popular, we should leave, when in

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short fact, no one is putting the case for either side clearly. Do you

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think this does feel like a personality contest at the moment?

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We have Boris on the front of the times, and he has clarified their

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that he does say that no means no at the end of a referendum, but when

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you look at the timings, whether it was Cameron's day or Boris's. I

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think there was a risk that the debate could have seemed like that,

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particularly if not many heavyweights had come out on the

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leave side, and I think that was Downing Street's hope, and I think

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we saw from Michael Cockrell's video last week on Newsnight about the

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1975 referendum, they managed to tarnish the No camp is a group of

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cranks, so I think the fact that Boris has come out Philippe, then

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gof, then David Owen, now Michael Howard,... Do you think it was

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coordinated? There is a relay going on? I think Boris genuinely took

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until Sunday night to make up his mind. But I think the fact that it

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is now a much more even contest with big beasts on both sides, and it is

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not just a war within the Conservative Party, there is Kate

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Hoey in labour, and George Galloway and so on on the far right, and in

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question Time yesterday, the panel didn't divide on the usual partisan

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lines, but it crossed those lines, and the audience seemed a gauge to.

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The Spectator gets a lot of hits when it glitches stuff about the

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referendum, and I think the public are very interested. The momentum

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has been with the outers, people like Douglas Carswell looking like

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they had a new puppy, the excitement was palpable. But it is more

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exciting to be on the outside in week one, if you have a campaign

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called Remain, how exciting is that? The arguments will be fleshed out in

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the months to come, and I know people talk about the personality

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politics, whichever country you take with a representative democracy, the

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argument end up with a head on them, there has to be a person where you

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think, I agree with him, or I don't like what she said, I have changed

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from him to her. The problem for the remains side is if you have all the

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excitement and Boris Johnson, Willie or won't he? It is, all the drama is

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there, the soap opera, but you still have to find a way, and the cat mark

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Economist have done a cover saying what they think, and they are in

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Economist have done a cover saying flesh on the argument, and there is

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a lot of excitement coming from the other side. There was a poll out

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this evening online which said that the Tabac three have got the edge --

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the outers have got the edge. It shows a small edge for the Three,

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but we still have many don't knows, if you ask how many people have

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definitely made their mind up, I think half of them would still be

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surprised that the referendum is even happening, so the idea we have

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a clear result this far out would amaze me. We have plenty of time,

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far longer than the election campaign was. You were in Scotland

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for a long time. Do you remember the point at which the people who didn't

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know suddenly new? There was a feeling that there was something we

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could do, but the main thing was that there was a sudden positive ups

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well that had been building for a very long time, the two years

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grass-roots work they had been doing, going out to schools and

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colleges, so from 2012 onwards they had been building up, whereas

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essentially, a lot of the campaigns are still arguing amongst themselves

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and only just really deploying their ground troops. And that is exactly

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what happened, the excitement, people got a big shock by how close

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it was going to be and that flipped up the last moment, so excitement is

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a funny metrics, you can feel it palpably and it will drive the

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debate, but whether it will drive the final outcome is less assured.

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Do you think there are shy outers in this? Yes, online polls have it much

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more level pegging, and telephone poles have people much more in

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favour of remaining. People are saying, I am and outie, just don't

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tell my friends! Nigel Farage says we spend all this money every week,

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others say, we get all this money back, so what the public do? How do

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we make sense of the figures, whether we will be more secure, less

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secure, spend more, spend less? It comes down to basically through you

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trust. So the data is irrelevant? On the one hand you are being told that

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leaving would damage the economy, on the other hand you are told that

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staying will, you know... So it is a case of going with the spokesperson

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that you believe, and I think that is one thing people are crying out

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for, in fact and mentioned that having this personality leads to

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excitement, but what people are crying out for when you hear them on

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the street is they just want to know that figures from a neutral source

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that they can assess the arguments neutrally. Identity there is any

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such thing as a neutral source in this debate, because facts and

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figures are subject to assessment. Do people want to be told what to

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think, you have to say to them, I'm sorry, you have to do some thinking

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now. The politicians will have to put that across, because if you are

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waiting for someone to bring you a tablet of stone, we would all claim

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that what we represent will tell some form of the truth, but in the

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end, people are going to have to face up to this themselves, it will

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be a brave politician who says that, but it will probably need to be

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said. State with us all, because when you haven't got figures, you do

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have fear. Within hours of a date

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for the referendum being called, Ian Duncan Smith claimed in a BBC

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interview that the EU's freedom of movement left the door open

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to a terrorist attack similar Counter terrorism experts

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slapped him down, accusing him But it is this scaremongering

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on both sides that is being widely deployed as the weapon of choice

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to bring people round. Five, seven, six... Some of the most

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striking political messages have been decidedly negative, like this

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American ad from 96 D4, an attack on Barry Goldwater, a Republican seen

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as gung ho on nuclear warfare. -- from 1964. These are the stakes! The

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European referendum will probably be a little less apocalypse Vic. But

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this former referendum campaign winner says the in campaign, which

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he supports, still has to be pretty tough. When it comes down to it,

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referendums are an offer of change, and three out of four file because

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people don't want to take the risk. So you have to pile up the risk,

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show the risk. The campaign for the status quo in Scotland did end up

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more negative, the consequence of extensive research by experts now

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working for the campaign to stay in the EU. During the Scottish

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independence referendum, the No campaign who were in favour of

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staying in did some research and their opponents on themselves and

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their opponents, they found that the Yes campaign was associated with

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ideas like ambition, Pat Richards, pride, but also risk, but the

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campaign of staying within the union was associated with ideas like

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financial security, job security, peace of mind, but also more of the

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same. See can see why it is that one campaign played up the changes, and

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the other campaign ended up sending quite negative, it was to use a term

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coined by a member of their own staff, Project Fear. Always in all

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polling if you ask people if they like negative campaigning, they

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don't like it. Everybody dislikes it, but if you then ask them about

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how their behaviour is changed by it, they hate it, but it affects

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them. The in campaign has arranged public letters from bosses and

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generals to seek to make a case that will be very familiar to Scots.

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Better Together Fridjonsson security. There is concern, though,

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that these messages are overblown. People should be aware of the down

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and upsides, but what I object to is the exaggeration of the fears about

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what might happen, and the exaggeration of the coercing of

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members of the establishment of retired military types and current

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officials and the military to rig the referendum against Brett --

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Brexit. The line between fair comment on opponent and unfair

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scaremongering is a very subjective. Some of your critics would argue

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that your concerns about how free movement within the European Union

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undermines our security... I don't think that is an exaggerated way of

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putting it. It is rather people to make up their own minds, but that is

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simply anchoring what I am saying in reality. A vote cast out of fear is

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as valid as one cast from Hope. You can wish for a gentler politics, but

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as a way of defending incumbents or the status quo, boy can going

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negative be effective. This brutal ad help the older George bush crush

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Michael Dukakis in 1988. While out, many committed other

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crimes like Many are still at large. Can hope

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beat that? The

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project fear, are we? Lets pick up with our panel again -

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Jim Waterson, Kiri Kankawende, If you were going to embrace project

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fear, would you say it is a powerful electoral tool? Does it work on the

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public? There were only two big messages in referendums that

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coalesce around a single issue. One is its time for change, the other

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is, don't take any risks, don't throw it all away. To that extent,

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as your film recollected, people will say, I don't like the sound of

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something called project fear. It does work as long as you keep it

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culturally in line with where people feel comfortable. The problem

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perhaps this week when we got to something... People will choose

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their own thing... I didn't like the lead involving generals. I

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their own thing... I didn't like the this is like Panama a couple of

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decades ago, what are we doing here? Relying on the military to tell us

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about something that should be something

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about something that should be on. As a weapon, yes, as Chris

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Cook's film nailed it, it's a very powerful thing electorally. It

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doesn't work with Buzz feed, your algorithm is based on happiness in a

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way. Its puddings and online discussed, it's pleasure, putting a

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link on Facebook that makes you look like a good, intelligent person for

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showing this. The fact that prove my case is a strong thing want to put

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on Facebook, Twitter, it makes them look good and spreads the word about

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their message. One thing that is odd look good and spreads the word about

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that we can pick up from the film is while we don't have paid for

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political ads on TV and radio in the UK, what we have got and what the

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Conservatives used to great effect during the general election, and

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they have the same guys working on this campaign, for the remain

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campaign, they can do paid Facebook ads. They will be targeting certain

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messages using hard cash to people who could be swung in key areas.

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It's one thing who could be swung in key areas.

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having that people haven't picked up on. While Anne MacElvoy

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having that people haven't picked up have got the fear problem, the

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unknown. It definitely have got the fear problem, the

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think they were thrown back on that tactic because they were wrong foot

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or by the scale and respectability of those who supported leave, by the

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lack of bounce after the deal brought back from Brussels. It's as

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lack of bounce after the deal if they've given up having sold the

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deal and are if they've given up having sold the

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fear. It is security risk, and a jobs risk. The fact they fell back

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on it so quickly, they shot those bolts faster than they were

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intending to. We saw that in the FTSE 100 letter, they only had 36 of

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the top FTSE 100 companies signing that letter. Why weren't

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Sainsbury's, Tesco and Barclays Sainsbury's, Tesco and Barclays

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signatories? And the military letter. One of the signatories,

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General Sir Michael letter. One of the signatories,

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didn't know anything about it. The whole idea of your character, the

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danger, possibly, that we then talk about Europe, when

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danger, possibly, that we then talk EU. People don't want to seem

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anti-European because they think they like Europe, but they might not

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feel as if they want to embody the EU, do you think there is an

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identity thing going on here? I do think it's a factor insofar as, I

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mean, everyone likes going on holiday, people talk about living

:19:53.:19:56.

abroad. I think when it comes down to fit what people see is people. --

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when it comes down to it. It comes down to migration, immigration, we

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think of it as people coming in rather than us going out. We think

:20:08.:20:12.

of it as an inbound flow. Facts and figures. Things like numerous

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studies that have found immigrants actually put in more than they take

:20:18.:20:21.

out, those sorts of figures seem to... They don't seem to land in the

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immigration debate. And we don't really talk about the people from

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the UK as much, going to work abroad. I wonder whether part of the

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imbalance, if you like, of this whole referendum argument, is there

:20:37.:20:40.

isn't a corner for passionate federalists. It's a question of...

:20:41.:20:45.

UR a bit negative or very negative, nobody is really on the... Stars on

:20:46.:20:53.

the flag. They use to become its a very good point you raise, there

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used to be the stuff I remember writing about split over Europe in

:20:57.:21:01.

the Tory party and across the parties in the 1990s. There were

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outright federalists supporters, Peter Mandelson, everyone remembers.

:21:06.:21:12.

Nick Clegg. They had a strong, pro-European stance, which was about

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the institution. The EU is a damaged institution and there are worries

:21:20.:21:22.

about its handling of things like the Eurozone crisis and migration,

:21:23.:21:29.

these things worry people. On the other hand, there is something you

:21:30.:21:32.

said about people not wanting to be cut off from it. They think, I go

:21:33.:21:37.

there on holiday, I might want to work there. There is a sense that it

:21:38.:21:40.

needs to be addressed by Toby's side of the argument. They worry

:21:41.:21:44.

something bad will happen that they can't put their finger on now, that

:21:45.:21:48.

they would be able to do something if we leave. No doubt there will be

:21:49.:21:52.

some scaremongering saying we won't be able to travel as freely in

:21:53.:21:56.

Europe. I don't think anybody who lives in Spain or France will have

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to come home the day after Brexit. You are right there aren't any

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full-blooded federalists in this debate. Downing Street have blocked

:22:07.:22:11.

themselves into a corner, Cameron and Osborne for years, and a lot of

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other inners, have been presenting themselves as fundamentally

:22:16.:22:21.

Eurosceptic, rather than Europhiles. That is why they made this big song

:22:22.:22:25.

and dance about securing special status as a result of this deal for

:22:26.:22:31.

the UK and the European Union. Some associate membership. Having not

:22:32.:22:33.

secured that, they can't fall back on claiming to be full-blown

:22:34.:22:38.

federalists because it would completely be at odds with how they

:22:39.:22:41.

presented their attitudes before. They have to fall back on project

:22:42.:22:46.

fear, they've nothing else. We've run out of time, but you are welcome

:22:47.:22:52.

back next week. While the debate about Europe rages here, French

:22:53.:22:56.

authorities have been going from tent to tent in the jungle in Calais

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telling residents it is time to leave.

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Yesterday a court upheld a government plan to clear

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the sprawling camp - which is home to thousands

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Most of them want to come to Britain.

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But the French authorities say they must relocate to official

:23:10.:23:11.

migrant centres or apply for asylum in France.

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It comes at the end of a week in which EU nations traded

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recriminations over refugee policy and the bloc's migration

:23:17.:23:18.

commissioner warned that the system was in danger of breaking down

:23:19.:23:21.

Our reporter Gabriel Gatehouse has spent the week in Calais

:23:22.:23:24.

and was there as the authorities went in this morning.

:23:25.:23:27.

They're going in not with bulldozers but with offers of resettlement.

:23:28.:23:47.

The authorities now have the legal right to clear the Jungle,

:23:48.:23:50.

but for the moment, they are asking rather than telling people to leave.

:23:51.:24:00.

It's your decision, not their decision.

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The trouble is, they don't seem to be very persuasive.

:24:03.:24:07.

So, the man who lives in this tent doesn't

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want to be filmed, but what's going on is the French officials

:24:11.:24:12.

are going around with a map of France saying,

:24:13.:24:15.

you can live in any one of these places, you can go to a refugee

:24:16.:24:18.

or migrant reception centre, but he's saying, I don't

:24:19.:24:20.

These are tough living conditions but,

:24:21.:24:28.

given the option to move to other parts of France,

:24:29.:24:31.

places where some people would happily go on holiday,

:24:32.:24:33.

most of the residents of the Jungle say they choose this.

:24:34.:24:36.

In new camp, there is no place for community or cook by yourself.

:24:37.:24:51.

Here, I can find my freedom, I am treated like human beings.

:24:52.:24:54.

Did they say that you could stay if you want

:24:55.:24:57.

No, they said to us, maybe after two or three weeks,

:24:58.:25:02.

Because I feel over there there are a lot of freedoms.

:25:03.:25:19.

There are nice people over there.

:25:20.:25:20.

Many of the migrants speak of heavy-handed police tactics.

:25:21.:25:26.

Night-time raids with tear gas and rubber bullets.

:25:27.:25:28.

As news of the court ruling came through yesterday

:25:29.:25:30.

evening, the mood in the camp was tense.

:25:31.:25:34.

But the prefect of the region told us no one would be moved by force.

:25:35.:25:38.

We will persuade them to move of their own accord.

:25:39.:25:49.

One of the options on offer is this gated camp

:25:50.:25:51.

Access is controlled by a palm print.

:25:52.:25:56.

Once inside, accommodation is in shipping

:25:57.:25:59.

It may be warm, but it's pretty soulless, and it's not popular.

:26:00.:26:08.

In any case, there are only 300 spaces

:26:09.:26:10.

left in the container park, and the southern part of the Jungle

:26:11.:26:13.

The truth is, the local authorities simply

:26:14.:26:18.

don't have the capacity to rehouse them all.

:26:19.:26:22.

Well, this strange state of limbo that the Jungle now finds

:26:23.:26:24.

itself in is symptomatic of a much wider problem.

:26:25.:26:28.

There are tens of thousands of people heading towards

:26:29.:26:31.

Nobody can stop them, but nobody can agree

:26:32.:26:35.

The Jungle is also home to a small army of mostly

:26:36.:26:41.

Many have spent months building up a community which they now fear

:26:42.:26:47.

There is little affection between them and the police

:26:48.:26:55.

The weeks ahead will doubtless bring more tensions as the authorities

:26:56.:27:04.

dismantle vacant tents and try to move the migrants on.

:27:05.:27:08.

Across Europe, the failure to forge a common strategy to tackle this

:27:09.:27:16.

crisis is straining the very bonds that hold the EU together.

:27:17.:27:27.

Leaks from a report into the death of the young Tory activist

:27:28.:27:29.

Elliot Johnson amid allegations of bullying

:27:30.:27:34.

by the Conservative Mark Clarke suggest it will say "potential

:27:35.:27:37.

criminal matters" were committed on the campaign road trip ahead

:27:38.:27:39.

The British Transport Police report, seen by the Daily Mail,

:27:40.:27:45.

is also believed to contain claims that Elliott had battled

:27:46.:27:47.

with depression for years, and had tried to commit

:27:48.:27:50.

Elliot was found dead on a railway line last September

:27:51.:27:54.

with a note accusing Mr Clarke of bullying him.

:27:55.:28:02.

For the past four months, Newsnight has been investigating

:28:03.:28:05.

allegations of bullying within the youth wing

:28:06.:28:06.

Today, James Clayton spoke to Ray Johnson,

:28:07.:28:09.

Elliott's dad, and asked him if the claims were true.

:28:10.:28:15.

Elliott looked like everything was normal, there was no problem. We

:28:16.:28:20.

first found out about it when we got a call from school to say Elliott

:28:21.:28:25.

had told somebody in the school he had taken something. And he'd been

:28:26.:28:32.

taken to hospital. That was the first we were aware Elliott had a

:28:33.:28:38.

problem with mental health. Had he tried to take his life after that

:28:39.:28:45.

when he was at school? The next incident was some months later.

:28:46.:28:50.

Elliott had gone to a friend's birthday party. He told us later

:28:51.:28:58.

that somebody had put a coin in his drink and he almost choked on it. It

:28:59.:29:03.

upset him. Friends were laughing at him. He stormed out of the party. He

:29:04.:29:09.

told us that he tried to hang himself. We've been concerned since

:29:10.:29:16.

the first incidents. We went to the GP with Elliott, the GP referred him

:29:17.:29:24.

to a psychiatric centre. He'd had several visits to the psychiatrist

:29:25.:29:29.

with us. The third attempt came out of the blue. Elliott said previously

:29:30.:29:36.

he had tried to drown himself. Under closer discussion and talking with

:29:37.:29:40.

Elliott, it seemed they were cries for help more than anything else. He

:29:41.:29:45.

had a difficult time for a period of about a year. He was a vulnerable

:29:46.:29:49.

lad, clearly, had a number of issues. He worked hard to resolve

:29:50.:29:55.

those issues. Following that period over one year, he matured, he went

:29:56.:30:04.

to university, had no further problems. He looked forward to

:30:05.:30:06.

getting on with the next stage of his life. It's also been reported

:30:07.:30:12.

that Elliott became depressed after coming out as gay in 2010. And that

:30:13.:30:16.

his family had initially struggled to come to terms with his sexuality.

:30:17.:30:22.

When did he tell you he was gay? He didn't actually tell us he was

:30:23.:30:27.

actually gay until two and a half years ago. And how did you react to

:30:28.:30:34.

that? By then we'd got used to the idea, we knew that Elliott was

:30:35.:30:42.

probably tending towards being gay, so it wasn't a real surprise to us,

:30:43.:30:47.

to be honest, at that stage. He was also fairly open about it with his

:30:48.:30:51.

friends in London, so there was no reason for him to take his life

:30:52.:30:57.

because of the fact that he was gay. His friends... He was open to them

:30:58.:31:04.

about it. Everybody knew about it. It should be no reason, no bearing

:31:05.:31:09.

on that. We've obviously talked a lot in the last few months. You've

:31:10.:31:15.

never actually mentioned he had mental health problems, that he had

:31:16.:31:19.

had mental problems, that he tried to take his own life before, why

:31:20.:31:25.

didn't you bring that up? We didn't think at that stage it was the right

:31:26.:31:30.

thing to say, we were trying... We knew at some stage it would come out

:31:31.:31:33.

because it would become part of the medical evidence at the coroner 's

:31:34.:31:40.

enquiry, inquest. Five months ago we were struggling with the loss of our

:31:41.:31:49.

son. And we were worried, I suppose, that if we'd raised the point that

:31:50.:31:53.

Elliott had mental health issues a number of years previously, that

:31:54.:31:59.

would have made it more difficult for us to get justice for him. I

:32:00.:32:03.

think people would have just thought this was just another vulnerable

:32:04.:32:07.

young boy with mental health issues who decided to commit to aside. And

:32:08.:32:12.

would not have looked any further to the fact of what drove our son to

:32:13.:32:19.

his suicide. Once again, you don't think that is relevant to my Elliott

:32:20.:32:27.

ended up taking his own life? No, it's not relevant, Elliott took his

:32:28.:32:30.

life because he'd been bullied. And picked on generally. By certain

:32:31.:32:37.

persons. And let down by other organisations around the

:32:38.:32:41.

Conservative Party. He was treated badly, that's why he took his life.

:32:42.:32:45.

He was treated appallingly by people and organisations and we want to

:32:46.:32:49.

make sure Elliott receives justice for what happened to him. Ray

:32:50.:32:55.

Johnson, Elliot Johnson's dad, speaking to James Clayton.

:32:56.:32:57.

Rob Delaney and Ruby Wax, about the links between comedy

:32:58.:33:02.

We should warn you this programme contains strong language.

:33:03.:33:12.

They say that for every four people walking the streets of this country,

:33:13.:33:17.

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