29/02/2016 Newsnight


29/02/2016

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More European countries are resorting to an old-school

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technique for controlling migration - the barbed wire fence.

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But today, the resulting strains showed.

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I swear if there is human rights, they shoot it off with what they do

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with us. Can fences really stop the flow

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of people into Europe? And what does it say about Europe

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that that's the main response? We'll hear from the Macedonian

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foreign minister Also tonight - the EU

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debate and the left. Not always the closest of buddies

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We'll ask how self-respecting We have European bureaucracy

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unaccountable to everybody. Powers have gone from national parliaments.

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Think have gone to the commission and to some extent the council of

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ministers. We ask how self-respecting socialists should

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vote in the EU referendum this year. And, did this moment in 1945 mark

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the official start of a new era It's a signal that will persist. We

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know it's going to last for as long as 100,000 years. It's a very good

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signal for future geologists. And is there something different

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about Donald Trump? At different ends of Europe,

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migrants have been meeting tear gas today, as Europe fashions

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a more forceful response In Calais, the new fences around

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the Eurotunnel terminal have made it significantly harder

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to get into Britain, The French want an end

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to the Jungle, but migrants protested today, as

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demolition teams went in. In Macedonia, a border has been

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reimposed, trapping thousands in Greece, people who want

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to journey up to northern Europe, Now you could call it

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the Donald Trump solution - build walls to stop

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people coming in. For some, it's the idea

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that actually works. For others, it simply

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shows you have a choice. You can have strong borders

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or humane values, but it's hard Let's start with our diplomatic

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editor, Mark Urban. But today's message

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is one of control This morning at Idomeni on Greece's

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border with Macedonia, they were rationing

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the numbers allowed over and a crowd of frustrated people

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started attacking the gates. Thousands have passed this

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way, but when people thought that might be

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over, their feelings Macedonians had been

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expecting this moment, They shot rubber bullets at those

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trying to pull down the fence. Women, children, even babies

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fighting for breath. To turn one of the weakest cub

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Fridays Europe, with an underpaid civil -- country, and to turn it

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into the place that will stop this mass a refugee movement. This was

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bound to lead to the scenes we see now. In the short-term it's bound to

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fail. For months thousands of MI5 grants have made their way north,

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through the Balkans -- 000 sands of migrants have made their way north.

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The sauce terrines had started fencing off their border with fellow

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EU and Schengen member Slovenia. So their declaration sparked a chain

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reaction, down through Croatia, Hungary, Serbia and Macedonia, none

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of whom wanted to have tens of thousands of pie glants backing up

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in their countries. With Macedonia -- migrants backing up in their

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countries. For Greece this is a humanitarian catastrophe. It is

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irresponsible and it is foolish for members of the eurozone that has so

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much at stake in Greek stability to risk it in this way. Earlier this

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month, the army was putting finishing touches to this camp in

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northern Greece. Since we've filmed, it's filled to overflowing. The

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Greeks hope that as borders tighten to the north, word would get back

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and the number crossing from Turkey would fall. That hasn't happened

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yet, but plenty of European decision makers will be hoping a message is

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being sent. In some ways the Western Balkan states have become a proxy

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for these ideas, who would win out - would they allow people to come

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through to the north-western European states or close their

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borders and effectively do something that the European Union has itself

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found it difficult to do, which is to say no to people who want to move

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through. To some extent, I think the Western Balkan states have been

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helpful to many of the EU member states in doing some of the things

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that they themselves don't feel comfortable doing. In Calais, also

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today, there were violent scenes as riot police moved to demolish parts

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of the MI5 grant camp. -- migrant camp. It's bound to be ugly. And as

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to whether it can work, the argument is just beginning.

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A big question, I suppose: are fences offensive

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Earlier, I spoke to Macedonian Foreign Minister,

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Nikola Poposki, and former British Foreign Secretary,

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Why has Macedonia introduced tougher border controls?

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We are eventually preventing illegal crossings from Greece into

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Macedonia, since we observe several hundreds of thousands of people

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crossing this border over the last year-and-a-half. Right now, what we

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are trying do is implement European council decisions, prevent illegal

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crossings and have reception centres to register migrants. Today your

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country fired tear gas on many people, many of them children. I'm

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wondering whether that is what you went into politics for? I don't

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think that this is a fair judgment. What we have seen is some 400 young

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male people trying forcibly to enter mass donian territory from Greece.

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If you were part of the security forces and you're faced with the

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situation where you have violent attempt from several hundred young

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male people to enter a territory, without willing to register, or to

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go to reception centres, I don't think this is in line with what we

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agreed on the European level. If you ask me, I think the easiest thing to

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do for Macedonia is to simply pull out and let all the migrants cross

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its territory on the way to western European countries. It is precisely

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what EU member states have been lobbying against and essentially,

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they have said that they want to have a comprehensive MI5 grags

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system -- migration system. And that you have to have asylum seekers that

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would have to register. If they fulfil the conditions they can

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continue to the European Union. Macedonia just happens to be a

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country that St not part of the European Union, but -- that is not

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part of the European Union but is on the migration road. Who is it you

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blame for the predicament you're in? I don't think blame is the right

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formulation. Every single country on this migration road has its own

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arguments. If you ask Turkey, they will say they have been home to 2. 5

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million migrants over four or five years and that no-one has reacted

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until part of these migrants have chosen to take the road and end up

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in western Europe. Greece is in a delicate situation, it's at the

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external border of the Schengen zone. But on the other side, it has

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to defend a number of islands that are very difficult to control. Then

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Macedonia is the next border. Most of these migrants reach the border

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within 24 hours from Turkey. Then they continue their road to western

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Europe. I don't think Germany is in this story because we have to have

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the human treatment all along the road, including the final

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destination for all these people that have a need or are fleeing a

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conflict. But right now we have to have a system. The biggest problem

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is that this system doesn't seem to work. Therefore each one of us has

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to do his part of the responsibility on his own territory. Right. If you

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are asking for a suggestion, I would say that the best thing to do is

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focus all our efforts on the EU external border to work in

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partnership with Turkey and make sure that there is 100% registration

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of legitimate asylum seekers that they're atloud to continue their

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road and transit through Macedonia and eventually arrive in Germany.

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You must be disappointed to see Europe falling into this system of

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individual countries building their own fences. The last thing we would

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like to do is invest public money in fencing the border. This is a small

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section. It is done with one single purpose - preventing illegal

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crossing. If you ask British taxpayers, they will make the same

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argument, that essentially it's not something that is good, but we

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definitely need to prevent illegal migration if we want to act

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responsibly. We will be the first ones that will act in order to

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dismantle these fences across Europe because we want to join the European

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Union. That's our objective. Thank you very much for that. Let me just

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turn to David Miliband, former Foreign Secretary, observer of these

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things now running the International Rescue Committee. Do you have

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sympathy for what he was just describing, their dilemma, they

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basically can't just take everybody on their own. They've had hundreds

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of thousands passing through. At some point, under taking their

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guidance, their lead from what everyone else is doing, they have to

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put up a fence as well. Do you have sympathy for that? I haven't seen

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the pictures or stories of tear gas being fired at kids. One never has

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sympathy for that. I think Macedonia is one of the victims of the beggar

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my neighbour policies undertaken by some European policies. There needs

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to be first, safe and legal routes to hope for those trapped in the

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Middle East. Second, that Europe needs to maintain its border in an

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effective and organised way. Third, that no one European country, not

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even Germany, can bear the whole load on their own. There needs to be

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the relocation of people around Europe and fourthly, the rest of the

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world needs to chime in. It's good that the Canadian government have

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taken 25,000 Syrians direct from the Middle East. The US has only taken

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10,000. That needs to be increased many fold if there is to be a

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comprehensive response that is essential in the absence of a

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resolution of the Syrian conflict which tragically is still a long way

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off. Do you think fences with razor wire and barbed wire on top of them,

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do you think those fences do fundamentally work? Like it or not,

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do they work at actually stopping people crossing at places where you

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don't want them to cross? That's a great question. All of our

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experience at the international Rose cue committee, we work in 30

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countries around the world, all our experience of fences, the higher you

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are build them, the higher people jump. The more that they tunnel, the

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more that they work around them. The real people that benefit from higher

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walls are the smugglers. It's 1200 euros to get across the six

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kilometres of the Aegean sea from Turkey to Greece at the moment. That

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$1200 is not going to charities, it's going to smugglers. People are

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paying 600 euros for a baby, for an infant. So there is a lot of money

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being made because of the failure to establish clear and legal routes to

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hope for people trapped in the Middle East, for the failure to

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ensure that there are organised routes for people. Frankly, this is

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an issue right across the world. We're in the middle of an election

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campaign in the United States, as you know, and there's a debate about

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walls here too. Walls simply in all the experience that people have,

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even look at the Berlin Wall frankly, walls don't work. I think

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it's very important to make the point that there isn't going to be a

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resolution in unilateral measures, whether razor wire or anything else.

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That's why I think they're worse than disappointing, they're

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perverse. David Miliband, thank you very much.

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At times, as we all consume the EU referendum campaign,

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it can feel as though we're simply intruding into a private argument

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So what about the other parties, the ones on the left?

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Nicola Sturgeon was in London making that case today.

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Labour is also in favour of Remain, but it has to be said,

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in some quarters, without much gusto.

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Could that be down to the ancient left-wing ambivalence

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In a moment, we'll ask how any decent socialist should vote

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in June, but first, here's our political editor,

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Two politicians both making the case today for the the UK to stay in the

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EU. But do not expect them to share the same stage. The referendum has

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created strange and slightly embarrassed allies. Anyone who has

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listened to what I have got to say and what David has to say would

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appreciate that we want the same outcome from different respect us.

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Now a Pentium first name terms and campaigning in London, Nicola

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Sturgeon was making DSM P case. There's nothing contradictory about

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independent nations recognising their interdependence, choosing to

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pull some 70 for mutual advantage was up on the contrary that is the

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way of the modern world that we live in today. The SNP can probably claim

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to be the most united pro-EU party. You can almost count those

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dissenting on the fingers of one finger pop-up step forward former

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SNP deputy leader Jim Sellers. One the strange things about SNP

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position is they're trying to retain the UK within the EU, the same EU

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that in the independence referendum told us to get stuffed. We would

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have to be put out and would have to wait till long queue to get back in.

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And that Spain would with their beta. So what is different if the

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assembly succeeds in keeping the UK in the EU next time we have the

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independence referendum, they will tell us to get stuffed again. There

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is more pro-Brexit sentiment in labour. Certainly nothing like it

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was in the old days. The European bureaucracy is unaccountable to

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anyone, powers have gone from national parliaments, they have gone

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to the European Commission and Council of ministers. These are

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serious matters. As recently as 1983, Brexit was official Labour

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Party policy. The turning point really was when the commission came

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to speak to the trade union Congress back in 1980 88. And really put

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forward powerfully this idea of a social Europe which guarantees

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workers across the European Union protections in the workplace. That

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is when the Labour Party started to turn and now we have the vast

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majority of our MPs and party members who are pro-European, not

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anti-European. It is true that now every single member of the Shadow

:16:49.:16:54.

Cabinet supports remaining in the EU. But in that unanimity, is there

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perhaps a danger of complacency? If you look at the people who voted for

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Jeremy Corbyn in the leadership election, over 80% of Labour Party

:17:06.:17:08.

remembers favour remaining part of the EU in the referendum. But it is

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not a very important issue for them, about one in six of Labour Party

:17:18.:17:20.

members say it is in their top ten issues. But with Labour Party

:17:21.:17:25.

supporters it is more mixed, around 56% support remaining in the EU

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there and around 30% wished to leave. All in contrast to the

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country generally which tends to be evenly divided. The danger for those

:17:34.:17:38.

on the left is that there supporters may not care enough about the issue

:17:39.:17:44.

to actually vote. In the 2011 referendum on the proposed changes

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to the Westminster voting system, labour, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru

:17:47.:17:53.

and the SNP all supported yes vote. But they could not convince enough

:17:54.:17:55.

of their supporters to turn out. The other side with paper far less party

:17:56.:18:01.

political support, was far more motivated them energised and they

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won the day. For some on the left,

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the EU is seen as a soft-left club For others, it is an

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obstacle to socialism. Let's find out the views of three

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representatives of the British left - former Labour Mayor of London,

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Ken Livingstone, the Green MP, Caroline Lucas, and the Anglican

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priest and commentator, Giles Fraser first, which side are

:18:30.:18:42.

you on? Brexit. I have a high doctrine at the House of Commons and

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for me the most important thing, you have the people here, those that

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they elect and they must remain close to each other. The people you

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elect must give power back to the people at the end of their electoral

:18:54.:18:56.

cycle. It is not for them to give that power away to someone in

:18:57.:19:00.

Brussels or some distant power, power must remain close to the

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people who legitimised it. I thought you were going to say it is like a

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neoliberal club. There are arguments on both sides. If it becomes that,

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and it could easily become a neoliberal club with the changes,

:19:17.:19:23.

the potential trade deal with the US, if that happens that will be

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imposed on us. My fundamental argument is of democracy. And so was

:19:27.:19:32.

my argument but it leads me to the opposite conclusion! He speaks about

:19:33.:19:35.

democracy when it comes to the people to re-elect but the irony is

:19:36.:19:40.

European elections are the one set of elections in the UK that are

:19:41.:19:44.

under proportional representation. A more democratic system. But the

:19:45.:19:51.

issue of the transatlantic trade agreement, those people who think

:19:52.:19:56.

we're going to get a softer, nicer trade policy by withdrawing from the

:19:57.:20:01.

EU and leading to let said David Cameron, are in cloud cuckoo land.

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David Cameron is the cheer leader, the strongest supporter of that. If

:20:06.:20:11.

we withdraw from the EU he will put that into bilateral agreements with

:20:12.:20:18.

the US. Right now in the U there are 3 million people who signed a

:20:19.:20:20.

petition against this and the European Parliament is now... Just

:20:21.:20:26.

aren't about specific question. Tony Benn once said, better about

:20:27.:20:34.

government then a good king. A slightly agree with that. Whatever

:20:35.:20:42.

the weight goes, for me the issue of democracy so fundamental. The

:20:43.:20:45.

transatlantic trade agreement could go either way. Ken, with Perugia in

:20:46.:20:55.

the middle, as you wished. It is a horrendous bureaucracy. You need to

:20:56.:21:02.

get rid of that layers of bureaucracy. The problem that we

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face is since the collapse of the Soviet Union, two thirds of the

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world economy is in America, Europe and China. If we come out we will

:21:13.:21:17.

have no real influence outside that. I also think that two years

:21:18.:21:20.

negotiating our way out, who will invest in the UK. Look at the

:21:21.:21:26.

situation, if you're an American car firm, you pay a 10% tariff selling

:21:27.:21:32.

cars in Europe. We do not want to be caught by that. The only way we

:21:33.:21:36.

could be excluded for that is to accept free movement, exactly the

:21:37.:21:44.

issue being used. None of you really love the EU in its current form. You

:21:45.:21:48.

want to change it, you do not like it. I want to make it more

:21:49.:21:53.

democratic, yes. But I want to make the House of Commons more

:21:54.:21:56.

democratic. It does not mean I want to walk away from it. But it is a

:21:57.:22:00.

neoliberal club to some degree. Because most governments in the EU

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now are right wing governments. In the 1990s there was a wonderful

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moment when the EU 15 had a majority of environment ministers from the

:22:16.:22:19.

Green Party. There were some wonderful environmental policy that

:22:20.:22:22.

came from that. If you put right wing victory into it that is what

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you will get out of the. But it does not undermine the importance of

:22:29.:22:31.

working together on the issues we face. Climate change,

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working together on the issues we cannot tackle that as a single

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country are own. It still feels like a dream. Were you happy with what

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happened to the people of Greece earlier this year, with what was

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imposed on them? earlier this year, with what was

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has become. And it is going to get worse. Look what David Cameron is

:22:52.:22:58.

doing in Britain! I know how to get out. I know how it works in this

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country, it is straightforward. I quite like the first past the post

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system for that reason. I have a present I could vote for, not vote

:23:08.:23:11.

for, it is close to the people and I wanted to remain that way. If you

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lobby, you're democratically elected MEPs, they can block the

:23:19.:23:23.

transatlantic trade agreement. Why is the Labour Party that was so

:23:24.:23:28.

close to the Giles Fraser pointed you 20 years ago, moved so far from

:23:29.:23:34.

that now? If someone can show me that our economy will do better if

:23:35.:23:42.

we vote to leave, non-upbeat series economic analysis has suggested

:23:43.:23:47.

that. It will be chaotic. I believe we will be back in recession, a

:23:48.:23:51.

further collapse in investment, a disaster. Will want to make it more

:23:52.:23:58.

democratic. Remember this, if we were not in Europe, not bound by

:23:59.:24:03.

European rules on environment and workers rights, this government

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would have done implement the war damage. Many people in the

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Conservative Party do not like Europe for the same reasons, they

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think it is taming some of the things they would want to do here.

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We are all in strange company at this time! Whichever side of the

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debate were on. What does surprise me about your position, Giles,

:24:26.:24:32.

European story as it is to be celebrated because after centuries

:24:33.:24:35.

of warfare in Europe, countries have come together. There's something

:24:36.:24:38.

noble about trying to resolve our through discussion and debate,

:24:39.:24:43.

however bureaucratic it is. I've been a member of the European

:24:44.:24:47.

Parliament and I have seen that, but so much better than trying to solve

:24:48.:24:50.

problems with bullets and bombs. That is a noble vision and ambition

:24:51.:24:55.

are used to share but what Europe has now become... The commission had

:24:56.:25:01.

a proposal to be able to share what refugees in a fair away and stop it

:25:02.:25:06.

was individual right wing governments that through back in

:25:07.:25:13.

their face. Jeremy Corbyn prefers to be at CND rallies, do you think he

:25:14.:25:19.

will come out and that hard on this because many people say that that

:25:20.:25:26.

will be crucial. We had a meeting last week with the Labour National

:25:27.:25:32.

executive, and Central is that we mobilise all our support, led by

:25:33.:25:37.

Alan Johnson, to make sure we get our voters out to stay in. I do not

:25:38.:25:41.

want to see unemployment going up in this country. We need a proper

:25:42.:25:49.

debate on the left. You cannot just say we will mobilise our support to

:25:50.:25:52.

do this. It cannot be the Tories making the running. I think many

:25:53.:25:57.

young people watching will be watching in bemusement because to

:25:58.:26:02.

them being part of the EU is just the air that they breathe. Thank you

:26:03.:26:03.

all very much. Debates in the world of geology

:26:04.:26:05.

do not often intrude into programmes like this, but every now and then,

:26:06.:26:08.

one comes along that deserves And right now, there is literally,

:26:09.:26:11.

an epoch-making argument going on. It concerns the precise epoch

:26:12.:26:18.

that we are in: for more than 11,000 years we've been languishing

:26:19.:26:21.

in a period of geological time called the Holocene,

:26:22.:26:24.

but many geologists believe the earth has entered a new epoch -

:26:25.:26:27.

the anthropocene - The only problem is they can't

:26:28.:26:30.

agree when it started. Here's the BBC's science

:26:31.:26:34.

correspondent, Rebecca Morelle. If only it were this easy to define

:26:35.:26:44.

where one bit of the earth's Traditionally, this has been

:26:45.:26:47.

done with hindsight. Now scientists are itching

:26:48.:26:53.

to declare we're in a new epoch. But they can't agree

:26:54.:26:58.

on when it began. The group that comes out with a date

:26:59.:27:01.

gets to define time itself. Geologists love to divvy up time,

:27:02.:27:04.

and that is what they have done So from the year dot to now,

:27:05.:27:16.

4.54 billion years later, that is divided up into units

:27:17.:27:24.

of time called eons. These chapters of time mark turning

:27:25.:27:29.

points in the earth's history. But to define when each began

:27:30.:27:39.

we need some physical indicator. Evidence of a radical

:27:40.:27:45.

change across the planet. And one of these can be found here,

:27:46.:27:47.

in the Southern uplands of Scotland. Millions of years of history have

:27:48.:28:01.

left signatures in these rocks. And we're going to check

:28:02.:28:04.

out a time stamp. So we've arrived here

:28:05.:28:11.

at the Ordovician-Silurian boundary. In fact, your hand is actually

:28:12.:28:13.

sitting on the boundary. A boundary between two

:28:14.:28:15.

geological periods of time. So these rocks, these black

:28:16.:28:22.

mudstones, they were deposited When they were deposited,

:28:23.:28:24.

there were horizontal. They have been tipped up

:28:25.:28:28.

by tectonic processes. We do see a fundamental change

:28:29.:28:31.

in the animals that are preserved Over there, in those rocks,

:28:32.:28:34.

we find the fossil skeletons of animals that tell us

:28:35.:28:38.

it was in the Ordovician period of geological time,

:28:39.:28:41.

and then where your hand is, we have a sudden change

:28:42.:28:45.

in the graptolite fossil sandwich that tells us we are now

:28:46.:28:47.

in the Silurian period So it is measurable,

:28:48.:28:49.

and that is what you're looking for. It was a colossal change

:28:50.:28:53.

in the earth's atmosphere and oceans that shifted us from the Ordovician

:28:54.:29:05.

to the Silurian period, And signalled by the before

:29:06.:29:08.

and after effects on the ancient Now fast forward through several

:29:09.:29:11.

more periods, epochs and ages. Officially, we have been

:29:12.:29:16.

in the Holocene epoch But scientists now think

:29:17.:29:18.

we are in a new epoch, What we are seeing at present

:29:19.:29:25.

is that the degree of change to the earth's system,

:29:26.:29:33.

that has been conducted by humans, is as significant as some

:29:34.:29:35.

of the really major changes to the earth's system

:29:36.:29:38.

in the geological record. No one species on planet Earth has

:29:39.:29:41.

ever done that in the whole history So it is really fundamental,

:29:42.:29:45.

it is enormous change. For signs of our own involvement

:29:46.:29:49.

in history, you don't need to track through a gorge in search of tiny

:29:50.:29:52.

creatures fossilised in rock. The imprint we are leaving

:29:53.:29:56.

on the planet is big. From clearing the land to make way

:29:57.:30:04.

for buildings like this, to creating the materials, concrete,

:30:05.:30:13.

plastic, that go into them. We are shaping every

:30:14.:30:15.

aspect of our environment. But while it might seem obvious

:30:16.:30:21.

to you and I that humans are dominating the globe,

:30:22.:30:24.

geologists need to agree that the changes we are in the world

:30:25.:30:26.

are on a vast enough scale. So for the last 500 years,

:30:27.:30:38.

science has made us, individuals, feel

:30:39.:30:41.

really insignificant. We start off with the

:30:42.:30:43.

Copernicus revolution. The earth is not the centre

:30:44.:30:46.

of the universe, it is the sun. We now have cosmologists saying that

:30:47.:30:51.

actually our sun is rather small, and actually it is one of billions

:30:52.:30:54.

and billions in the universe. We then have the biologists coming

:30:55.:30:57.

in and they say, guess what? Yeah, you're not special,

:30:58.:31:00.

you're not there between You're just a smart chimpanzee

:31:01.:31:02.

with not very much hair. Now what we are saying is that

:31:03.:31:09.

humanity is a geological superpower. We are currently having the same

:31:10.:31:15.

effect as plate tectonics A consensus is is now growing

:31:16.:31:18.

that we have sufficiently secured our superpower status enough

:31:19.:31:23.

to warrant our own epoch. But that means another row

:31:24.:31:26.

is gathering momentum. When did we ditch the Holocene

:31:27.:31:33.

and welcome in the Anthropocene? Was it way back, more

:31:34.:31:39.

than 8000 years ago, when humans were lopping down

:31:40.:31:44.

forests to make way for their farms? Or was it a bit more recently,

:31:45.:31:49.

in the 15th century, when the New World met

:31:50.:31:53.

the old world, shifting plants, animals and disease

:31:54.:31:56.

around the globe? Some think the industrial

:31:57.:31:59.

Revolution is a contender, which could bring the Anthropocene's

:32:00.:32:03.

birth into the 18th century. Or is the start date much more

:32:04.:32:07.

recent, the mid-20th century, when humanity's impact on the earth

:32:08.:32:12.

reached epic proportions? What is needed is a moment in human

:32:13.:32:19.

history that leaves a strong and long lasting signal that future

:32:20.:32:22.

geologists would be able to find. Some believe the first nuclear

:32:23.:32:28.

tests offer just that. A legacy of radioactive elements

:32:29.:32:33.

that will linger far This is a really good signal

:32:34.:32:36.

that we get in the 1950s. It is something that we can

:32:37.:32:43.

recognise all around the planet. And also it is a signal

:32:44.:32:46.

that will persist, because of those

:32:47.:32:49.

radiogenic isotopes. We know it is going to last

:32:50.:32:51.

for as long as 100,000 years, so it is a very, very good signal

:32:52.:32:54.

for future geologists. Others think we need

:32:55.:32:57.

to go further back. For me, we can go a million years

:32:58.:32:59.

into the future and look back, the one thing that will always be

:33:00.:33:03.

there is how we change the evolution and the distribution

:33:04.:33:08.

of species around the planet. Ultimately the real birth

:33:09.:33:11.

of a new epoch will be It is due to go to a

:33:12.:33:17.

vote later this year. So actually saying we are in

:33:18.:33:23.

the Anthropocene epoch, and we are the control

:33:24.:33:28.

on the earth's destiny, If you've been happy in the

:33:29.:33:30.

Holocene, you may not want to be told

:33:31.:33:40.

that we are now in the Anthropocene. But just in case geologists decide

:33:41.:33:44.

that we are, happy new epoch! 12 US states, including

:33:45.:33:47.

the second biggest one, Texas, get their say

:33:48.:33:51.

in the selection of Republican and Democrat

:33:52.:33:54.

presidential candidates. And American Samoa

:33:55.:33:57.

gets its say as well. Tomorrow may not make

:33:58.:33:59.

a Clinton-Trump contest inevitable, However, it's the Republican race

:34:00.:34:04.

that has gripped us all, and the dominance of Donald Trump -

:34:05.:34:09.

a man worth $4 billion - and yet one for whom it is always

:34:10.:34:14.

difficult to tell what to take You retweeted somebody from el duce

:34:15.:34:17.

2016 a Mussolini quote. What difference does it make

:34:18.:34:26.

whether it's Mussolini It's certainly a very

:34:27.:34:29.

interesting quote. General Pershing, per shalling,

:34:30.:34:33.

did you ever hear rough, guy and they had

:34:34.:34:40.

a terrorism problem. There's a whole thing with swine

:34:41.:34:43.

and animals and pigs and you know He took the 50 terrorists

:34:44.:34:46.

and he took 50 men and dipped 50 They shot 49 of those people

:34:47.:34:51.

and the 50th person he said, you go back to your people

:34:52.:34:57.

and you tell them what happened. What's the difference between a wet

:34:58.:35:06.

racoon and Donald J Trump's hair? A wet racoon doesn't have

:35:07.:35:19.

seven billion (BLEEP)ing dollars Donald Trump sometimes one

:35:20.:35:25.

for clowning around, sometimes one with a rather more

:35:26.:35:39.

threatening message. His populism has drawn the extreme

:35:40.:35:41.

comparison to Hitler - that from a former Mexican president

:35:42.:35:44.

- and a less outlandish So everybody is grappling

:35:45.:35:48.

for an historical comparison, Ahead of all the politics tomorrow,

:35:49.:35:56.

we thought we'd talk Joining me in studio is Tom Holland,

:35:57.:35:59.

a classical historian, and from the US, Donna Murch,

:36:00.:36:04.

a history professor at Rutgers university specialising

:36:05.:36:06.

in African-American history. Good evening to you both. Focussing

:36:07.:36:18.

on US comparison, not on Hitler, for the moment at least, just where

:36:19.:36:22.

would you, who or where would you place Donald Trump? Well, you know,

:36:23.:36:28.

I think that it's hard to find a perfect historical analogy, but I

:36:29.:36:33.

think George Wallace might be the closest. He was the former governor

:36:34.:36:39.

of Alabama who ran in 19 #6r8. He was able to draw on a racist,

:36:40.:36:45.

populist platform, a significant amount of voters in the south and

:36:46.:36:50.

the mid-west. The appeal to white nationalism in a moment of perceived

:36:51.:36:56.

crisis can be compared with Trump. You have a more classical bent,

:36:57.:37:01.

haven't you? I would compare him to the emperor Nero. The reason is not

:37:02.:37:09.

just that Nero is as unpopular with Roman historians and Trump is with

:37:10.:37:15.

East Coast liberals. But Nero was a sensational hero. He was a

:37:16.:37:18.

calculated politician who reached over the heads of the elite, whom he

:37:19.:37:25.

cast as stuffed shirts, and made an enormous splash and won the

:37:26.:37:31.

admiration of the people. Nero understood if you carry things off

:37:32.:37:37.

with sufficient swagger and charisma, bad publicity is always

:37:38.:37:42.

going to win out for you. Was Nero a populist? Was that a word you'd

:37:43.:37:52.

ascribe to him? He was a popularis. You had to be rich, you could be

:37:53.:37:56.

aristocratic but you played to the public gallery. That's what Nero

:37:57.:38:00.

did. He killed his mother. You'd think that would be terminal even

:38:01.:38:05.

for the career of a Roman emperor, but Nero made a splash of it. He

:38:06.:38:10.

actually appeared on stage rather like Trump in the wrestling, playing

:38:11.:38:16.

the role of a famed midge logical matricide. This man recognise today

:38:17.:38:22.

he got out there and played the role of the big man, that way he could

:38:23.:38:25.

win the hearts and minds of people. That sounds like a more benevolent

:38:26.:38:29.

picture than the one you offered Donna. George Wallace, I think you

:38:30.:38:35.

used the word populist and racist, I mean those are both words you would

:38:36.:38:40.

apply to Donald Trump? Yes, especially racist. The problem with

:38:41.:38:44.

the term populism is that it's so general. That encompasses many

:38:45.:38:49.

things, including economic redistribution, which trump does not

:38:50.:38:54.

support. Trump built his campaign on declaring that Mexicans were rapists

:38:55.:38:57.

and that we need a separation wall between the US and Mexico, that

:38:58.:39:05.

should be paid for by Vicente Fox. He further exacerbated this and it

:39:06.:39:09.

inacrosses his popularity by saying all Muslims should wear ID badges.

:39:10.:39:13.

It's that kind much rhetoric that's drawn the compare sons being made

:39:14.:39:17.

with Hitler. It's really about racively. -- racism. The Hitler

:39:18.:39:24.

comparison is hysterical, isn't it? Or do you think there is perhaps a

:39:25.:39:30.

germ of insight in there? I would say that the fact that people are

:39:31.:39:38.

choosing such a bombbastic comparison is how the people feel in

:39:39.:39:44.

the United States. He's really up ended the raurt Republican Party. --

:39:45.:39:50.

Republican Party. He's found a huge national base amongst white,

:39:51.:39:54.

working-class voters. People are saying that to signify the sense of

:39:55.:39:58.

crisis. Is it helpful to make comparison to Hitler? By and large

:39:59.:40:01.

it's not helpful at all. In fact, I think it's pernicious. For instance,

:40:02.:40:06.

comparisons of Saddam Hussein to Hitler were crucial in influencing

:40:07.:40:12.

the move to war in Iraq. I think that in Trump's case there's no need

:40:13.:40:16.

to look to European traditions to trace his roots. I think that you

:40:17.:40:21.

can look back to the 19th searchingery American history and

:40:22.:40:26.

find all kinds of echoes. If you look at President Pole, elected in

:40:27.:40:34.

1845. He didn't build a wall. He invaded Mexico. He annexed a huge

:40:35.:40:40.

chunk of California. If you place Trump in those traditions, the

:40:41.:40:45.

traditions of America, then he makes more sense. What about populism in

:40:46.:40:52.

American history? You've had, I take the George Wallace comparison, but

:40:53.:40:55.

there are others in the 1930s, he wasn't Hitler, but there was a chap

:40:56.:41:01.

huey Long who was an extraordinarily successful for a short period of

:41:02.:41:09.

time. You had Huey Long, but he's so different from Trump. He comes from

:41:10.:41:13.

a wealthy family. His father supporting the clan wand as a big

:41:14.:41:19.

real estate owner. Long supported a populist platform, but he was

:41:20.:41:22.

involved in infrastructure building in Louisiana. Trump is almost a

:41:23.:41:37.

blend, blended with George Wallace bulletineded with Silvio Berlusconi.

:41:38.:41:41.

It is his show on celebrity apprentice that launched his brand.

:41:42.:41:46.

He has a history of all kinds of racist proclamations going back to

:41:47.:41:51.

the 80s, when he called of bringing back the death penalty with the

:41:52.:41:55.

police. Thank you both. It is super Tuesday tomorrow. I'm

:41:56.:42:01.

back, Emily with be in the States. Till then, have a very good night.

:42:02.:42:05.

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