03/03/2016 Newsnight


03/03/2016

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As the Chancellor mulls major reforms to the pension system,

:00:00.:00:07.

Radical changes to pensions tax relief could hit millions of higher

:00:08.:00:11.

earners. But would the Chancellor do something so drastic -

:00:12.:00:14.

and potentially unpopular - just before the EU referendum?

:00:15.:00:23.

If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee,

:00:24.:00:26.

the prospect for a safe and prosperous future

:00:27.:00:28.

The Republican Establishment fights back.

:00:29.:00:35.

But will Mitt Romney's attack actually help Donald Trump?

:00:36.:00:40.

David Cameron's former adviser has been watching the race.

:00:41.:00:49.

Also tonight - could an ancient Chinese board game help build

:00:50.:00:52.

A piece of software developed in London could just herald

:00:53.:00:56.

the biggest step forward in artificial intelligence

:00:57.:00:58.

Death and taxes might be civilisation's only certainties,

:00:59.:01:13.

Some of us already draw one, some of us pay into one,

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some of us don't, but all of us expect to receive one one day.

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But what can the modern British worker expect their pension to look

:01:22.:01:24.

like and when can we expect to get it?

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How much should Government be doing to ensure that the most help goes

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to those with greatest need and should the age at which we get

:01:34.:01:36.

one depend not just on how old we are, but also on the kind

:01:37.:01:39.

As the Chancellor prepares to address at least some of these

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questions in his looming budget, Newsnight's Chris Cook has taken

:01:47.:01:48.

The world of work is always changing, but one question

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is a constant - how do you get people to pay

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Tax policy is a critical lever and we may be the cusp

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I think major changes are more likely than not.

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There's been a lot of pension reform already and tax relief is,

:02:23.:02:25.

Workplace pensions are all about deferring income,

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delaying the moment when you receive a portion of your pay,

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until the time when you can actually enjoy it.

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Pensions get the benefit of tax relief.

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That means the state waives income tax on money that people put aside

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Now, there are critical discussions going on about the future

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At the moment, any income you put into your pension

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Any gains your pension pot makes are also not taxed.

:02:54.:03:01.

You're not taxed on money while it's in there.

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It's only at the end, when you start drawing an income

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This arrangement is known as exempt-exempt-tax or EET.

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Your pension is tax exempt when you put money in,

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exempt as it's invested and it's only taxed as it's withdrawn.

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Paying tax at the end of the process means your tax payments

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reflect your actual income in retirement.

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In any given year, the Chancellor foregoes tens of billions of pounds

:03:35.:03:37.

of tax because when people put their money into a pension,

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he doesn't get the tax on that wage, he says -

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don't worry, I won't tax you now, I'll tax you when you

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The question is, could you lose that money in the current year and get

:03:46.:03:49.

more people to do more saving, better than we do now,

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and, unequivocally, the answer to that is, yes.

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A radical idea currently being considered by the Treasury

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would completely change how we tax pensions.

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Rather than waiting until the end, until you're drawing an income

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to claim tax off you, the taxman would instead tax money

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as you're putting it into your pension scheme.

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So this changes things to tax-exempt-exempt or TEE.

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You'd pay into your pension scheme after you've been taxed,

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meaning that the tax burden falls on current earnings

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and then your pension would be totally tax-free,

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At the moment, the Government offers a few eases, notably a tax-free lump

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sum to bribe you to save in a pension.

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Any new system would needed a top-up bribe, too.

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But the Chancellor would certainly benefit now.

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This would raise tax revenues in the short-term,

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but cut them in the future, and that might not be wise.

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You've got the fact that this is a policy that brings forward tax

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revenues from future years, from a time when there'll be

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an older population, putting more pressure on the public

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finances, through state pensions, through the health service

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The fear would be that that might make future governments a bit more

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desperate and maybe a little more likely to renege on the promise that

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withdrawals from these pension ISAs would remain tax-free.

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So what about a less radical reform, say of tax relief?

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At the moment, if someone in the 40% tax bracket want to put ?1

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in their pension, they only need to pay in 60p.

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The Treasury puts in the remaining 40p.

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But people in the 20% bracket have to put in 80p because the taxman

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The reality is we're giving more money today to the better off,

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who are already putting more money into pensions, and that's not

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the best use of money when we have a savings crisis.

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So my preference would be to level things up, up for lower

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rate taxpayers at 20%, down for higher rate taxpayers.

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The pensions industry likes this idea.

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It would be a less disruptive change.

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This model might also save about ?6 billion a year

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for the Treasury, but it looks a lot more like a straight tax hike

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on higher earners, it would also cause an administrative headache,

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and the Chancellor may not want to upend the pension system,

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David Grossman is our Political Editor and he's

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Was dreaming or was there a promise that a Conservative Government

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wouldn't go near tax relief? We can quote from a central office briefing

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note from April last year, which says we believe the pensions tax

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relief system will be fair and affordable and we will not propose

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any further changes to that. Is during the next Parliament. So in

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the process, the Chancellor could be accused of going back on commitment

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made before the election and annoying large numbers of people who

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have voted for the Conservatives, because not only were they told

:07:05.:07:07.

there aren't any plans to do that, they were told the only way to stop

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Labour doing us wit to vote Conservative. Why is he suggesting

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he might be doing it? The ansz is ten, maybe 15, maybe ?20 billion of

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extra income he could get in the process. Income as one of our

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interviewees suggested, a future Chancellor could be left feeling the

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pinch of. Exactly. What he is doing is perhaps taking the money, that

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future Chancellor might earn, or tax, pensioners with, but that

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Chancellor may not have been born yet. And it is not just voter, there

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will be Conservative MPs who are a little troubled by this. Why and how

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long a shadow the referendum cast over this whole process? Well,

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partly kith MPs are annoyed about going back, annoying their core

:07:58.:08:01.

voter, some activists in the constituency ises, there is this

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referendum of course, the wisdom is, that if you are going to do

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something unpopular or something you are voters might not like get it

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down early, that is when your mandate and majority are freshest

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and the voters have time to forgive you. We are going into a referendum

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in 120 days' time, a bit less than that, The, one of the core groups

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that are wavering in the middle of this are some of the affluent people

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whose hearts may tell them they would like to vote to leave the EU

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but their heads maybe susceptible to arguments that the Chancellor is

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making about their best economic interests. If they don't trust the

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Chancellor, if they feel the Chancellor hasn't got their best

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interests at heart they maybe harder to win over in all this. So the

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stakes are high. Let us Mark Garnier, a Conservative MP

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who sits on the Treasury Select Committee, and Josephine Cumbo,

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the pensions correspondent for the Financial Times,

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whose reporting has led the coverage You are splashing tomorrow with a

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warning to the Chancellor from one of his own Pensions Ministers he

:09:05.:09:07.

perhaps needs to calm down, if not slow down. Think what we are seeing

:09:08.:09:12.

now is the tensions and concerns and fears are really starting to

:09:13.:09:16.

surface, that what the Chancellor is going to announce in the budget,

:09:17.:09:21.

while saving the Treasury billions of pounds could cause deep damage to

:09:22.:09:26.

the retirement system. In July last year, he announced the consultation

:09:27.:09:30.

on the future of saving incentives for retirement and at the time he

:09:31.:09:34.

said it was going to be an open consultation, but the only option he

:09:35.:09:39.

really mentioned at the time was the pension ISA, during the consul

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location there has been a core Corus of industry representatives and MPs

:09:44.:09:48.

queueing up to say that this is a wrong idea, it could lead to severe

:09:49.:09:53.

complications for the industry, you will have two systems running at the

:09:54.:09:57.

same time, you will have an old pension system and a new pension

:09:58.:10:02.

system. There are concerns that a futures Chancellor might say well, I

:10:03.:10:07.

am going to start taxing the income that George Osborne promised was

:10:08.:10:11.

going to be tax free, so that could really hit pensions saving and

:10:12.:10:15.

confidence in pension savings at a time when the UK is starting to

:10:16.:10:21.

enrol people in pensions through automatic enel rollment. There is

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two possibilities on the table really. There is the ISA and you

:10:25.:10:29.

explained and the flat rate of tax which was very well explained in the

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film. I sense from your journalism you are too wise to place bettings,

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which would you say he is closest to? He is attracted to the pension

:10:39.:10:43.

Isa. He likes to make bold decision, let us think back to 2014, when he

:10:44.:10:48.

stood up at the despatch box and said no-one will have to buy an

:10:49.:10:52.

annuity. That came out the blue, there must be a big temptation for

:10:53.:11:00.

him to do that again, in spite of the range of opponents he has had to

:11:01.:11:05.

doing anything drastic. Something has to give doesn't it? The notion

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that the lowest earners get the least help to save for their few

:11:10.:11:13.

while the highest get the most help. If it wasn't true it would be

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unthinkable. O Think you are right. The numbers speak for themselves. If

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you look at the 10% of people who earn more than ?50,000, they

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represent 47% of pension contributions and if you look at the

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1% who earn more than ?150,000, they represent 14%. So clearly, it is

:11:31.:11:36.

skewed in favour of the richer people, who have more disposable

:11:37.:11:39.

income. So it could be partly to do with the incentive and the fact if

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you have ?150,000 you have a lot more disposable voluntary income

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than if you are on ?12 nap,000. I think what we have done so far is

:11:50.:11:54.

like House of Lords reform. We have done a bit but haven't finished the

:11:55.:11:57.

whole journey. There is talk about this pension Isa where it will be

:11:58.:12:01.

taxed on the way in and there is a possibility there may be a

:12:02.:12:05.

contribution by the Government. If the contribution is 50-50, for each

:12:06.:12:09.

pound put in everybody, including the high rate taxpayer's will be

:12:10.:12:12.

better off. I think one of the problems facing the pension

:12:13.:12:15.

industry, and facing pensions in general is that the Holy Grail of

:12:16.:12:19.

this is getting people to put as much money as they can in to their

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pension pot as early as they can. I think that really clever thinking on

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this would be able to work out a system where by people can look at

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their entire lifetime savings schemes, and perhaps we could come

:12:33.:12:38.

up with a system where by the pension system can be allied with

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mortgage guarantees, so people could start looking at this sort of,

:12:44.:12:47.

together rather than a separate entities. You are proposing a third

:12:48.:12:53.

way, you don't like the idea of equalising the playing field so

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however much you earn the amount of help you get remains the same It

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will cause a lot of the problems, if you are going to create the problems

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you need to have something really important that is going to come

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along with it. If we go to the flat rate of, the flat rate of discount,

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then you end up with this problem of the hybrid, you have half in one

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type of pension and another in another type of pension, you have

:13:16.:13:19.

the administration, it will be very difficult for pay role managers so

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that will be difficult. Then you have the contribution of the vt go,

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so that could be expensive. Anything is going to be difficult. I was

:13:27.:13:30.

thinking more of fairness. Yes, I think one of the inthises which I

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would be keen on, if he is going to make change, I think you have to

:13:35.:13:38.

give people a lot of warning, what, I am getting people who are writing

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to me and stopping me in the street, saying is he going to do something?

:13:42.:13:46.

Should be I be worried about my tax free lump sum? If you are saving for

:13:47.:13:50.

your pension you have spent your life focussing on the one point when

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you retire. At the closer you get to that the less options you have

:13:55.:13:57.

available in order to mitigate any changes, so the key thing I, I

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think, would be if he is going to make changes he has to give really a

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decade's warning before they come into play. Very briefly, what do you

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say when you are stopped in the street, to the voters who say you

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promised they wouldn't go near this issue and they are. They are looking

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at it. It is right to have a look at it. At the end of the day the tax

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credit given to pensions in this country is worth billions they get

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back 13 billion on taxes, paid on pensions coming out. It is not as

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simple as it sounds but that is the problem they have got. But I come

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back to this remaining point point, which is if eare going to change

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something people like me and my colleagues will be advising the

:14:43.:14:46.

Chancellor we have to give people plenty of warning. A decade is not

:14:47.:14:51.

unreasonable I think. I don't think that would happen. He would be

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looking for savings to balance the books by 2020. People are diving in

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and maxing owl their pension contributions on concerns that high

:15:00.:15:02.

rate relieve is going. He would have to do something in the budget to

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clamp-down on that. Many thanks indeed.

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Start any observation about the performance or prospects

:15:10.:15:11.

of Donald Trump at the moment and you run a very real risk

:15:12.:15:14.

of being comprehensively disproved before you've

:15:15.:15:16.

But, it's probably fair to say, that much of his appeal lies

:15:17.:15:24.

in his supporters' deep dislike of mainstream politicians.

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So the fact that very senior mainstream politicians

:15:30.:15:32.

from within his own Party are now queueing up to condemn him,

:15:33.:15:35.

in the strongest of terms, could be construed as evidence

:15:36.:15:37.

If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee,

:15:38.:15:46.

the prospect for a safe and prosperous future

:15:47.:15:48.

If Donald Trump's plans were ever implemented,

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the country would sink into prolonged recession.

:15:56.:15:58.

Doesn't he know what he's talking about?

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Look, his bankruptcies have crushed small businesses and the men

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He inherited his business, he didn't create it.

:16:13.:16:19.

Mr Romney was joined in his condemnation of Mr Trump

:16:20.:16:21.

by another former Republican presidential hopeful,

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John McCain, who said he "shared the concerns about Donald Trump"

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and criticised Mr Trump's "uninformed and indeed dangerous

:16:29.:16:39.

Mr Trump had a few choice words for Mr Romney in return.

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Look, I'll just address it quickly, because it's irrelevant.

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Steve Hilton, David Cameron's former strategy director,

:16:46.:16:53.

now based in San Francisco, joins us to make sense

:16:54.:16:55.

That's quite a big ask, Steve Hilton, can you make sense of it for

:16:56.:17:06.

us? I'll have a go. Good to be with you. I think what's going on here is

:17:07.:17:12.

actually pretty profound. We live in a world run by bankers and

:17:13.:17:15.

bureaucrats and accountants, people like Mitt Romney. Those people,

:17:16.:17:20.

regardless of who has been in power, for the last few decades have been

:17:21.:17:25.

pushing an agenda, an ideological agenda, that it favours big

:17:26.:17:30.

businesses over small. That champions globalisation and open

:17:31.:17:32.

immigration, whatever the cost of that. It's been pretty inhuman and

:17:33.:17:38.

callous about the impact of that approach to government on the real

:17:39.:17:40.

lives of working people. Basically, I think people are sick of it. They

:17:41.:17:44.

are sick and tired that. They are sick and tired of being told to suck

:17:45.:17:48.

it up and deal with it because it's the world we live in. That is what

:17:49.:17:53.

is driving support for Trump. On the left for Bernie Sanders. Someone

:17:54.:17:58.

like Mitt Romney, who pretty much epitomises that approach to

:17:59.:18:02.

government, which is being comprehensively rejected. Is about

:18:03.:18:05.

the worse person you could ask for to make the argument against Trump.

:18:06.:18:11.

Judd Trump trump has dealt with John McCain by questioning his heroic

:18:12.:18:18.

status. Neither Romney or McCain have learnt the lesson, they feel

:18:19.:18:22.

the way to get him is conventional weapons. He doesn't recognise

:18:23.:18:25.

conventional warfare in political terms? I think that's right.

:18:26.:18:30.

Actually, we need to dissting swish somewhat between the froth of the

:18:31.:18:34.

campaign, Trump is very good at that, getting attention for

:18:35.:18:37.

statements which every now and again go beyond the boundaries of what

:18:38.:18:41.

people might consider to be acceptable. People di discounted,

:18:42.:18:48.

dissupporters discount it, because they identify with the substantive

:18:49.:18:52.

argument that underlice that. The other point is his character and

:18:53.:18:57.

temperament. Mitt Romney made the argument that his character and

:18:58.:19:01.

temperament disqualifies him from being President. Again, it's

:19:02.:19:04.

precisely his character that people are responding to. The idea that he

:19:05.:19:07.

is not some smooth-talking politician. He is actually a strong

:19:08.:19:11.

guy who is going to get in there and shake things up. That is exactly

:19:12.:19:14.

what people If you were want. Looking after one of his opponents,

:19:15.:19:17.

what would you advise them to do next? Well, I don't know. I'm not

:19:18.:19:23.

that involved, so I don't think of it necessarily in those terms. I

:19:24.:19:27.

think one thing that is clear is that, as the race is going on, there

:19:28.:19:34.

is more time, for example, in the Presidential debates, another one

:19:35.:19:38.

here in the States, for focus on the actual policy agendas of these

:19:39.:19:42.

various candidates and to look at the substance of what they're saying

:19:43.:19:45.

it. Seems to me there is more concentration on that. That will

:19:46.:19:49.

only increase once you get into the general election setting. I think

:19:50.:19:54.

someone like John Kasich, who is around right now in terms of the

:19:55.:19:58.

state of the race, he is the governor of of Ohio. A distant

:19:59.:20:03.

fourth in the race right now. He is still sticking to a positive agenda,

:20:04.:20:07.

setting out how he would solve these same problems. His analysis is

:20:08.:20:12.

pretty much consistent with the same arguments Trump is making he is

:20:13.:20:16.

putting something which is a little more tangible. That could over the

:20:17.:20:20.

next few weeks, prove to be quite a good way of approaching it. Tangible

:20:21.:20:25.

versus toxic, if you like. I was reading a piece, # 0 years old, from

:20:26.:20:32.

the New York Times, they explained that Adolf Hitler's anti-Semitism

:20:33.:20:36.

wasn't here, exaggerated but to carry favour with the sentiments

:20:37.:20:40.

that American voters are feeling. History suggest that is over

:20:41.:20:44.

optimistic. Do you think Donald Trump is as nasty as he seems with

:20:45.:20:50.

his descriptions of Mexicans, Muslims, building of walls and hi

:20:51.:20:54.

bans of people of the wrong religion? I don't think so. It's

:20:55.:20:58.

something about him. The truth about Donald Trump is that he is a pretty

:20:59.:21:05.

non--ideological, pragmatic, problem-solving businessman who says

:21:06.:21:08.

the first thing that comes into his head much I don't think he makes

:21:09.:21:14.

these statements because there an underlying, bigoted or ideologically

:21:15.:21:16.

driven point of view about people from other countries or races. I

:21:17.:21:20.

just don't think that's how he is. He is very much someone who speaks

:21:21.:21:25.

off the hoof. There is another important point, it might be easy in

:21:26.:21:29.

people in the UK to follow the race from afar to conclude from some of

:21:30.:21:33.

the things that Trump is saying he is pretty much another crazy

:21:34.:21:36.

right-wing American politician. In fact, it's the opposite. One of the

:21:37.:21:40.

reasons that the Republican establishment is really worried

:21:41.:21:44.

about Trump and rounding on him, is not that he's too right-wing, it is

:21:45.:21:50.

not that he's right-wing enough. They think his positions on abortion

:21:51.:21:54.

and immigration are not right-wing enough. The other candidates in the

:21:55.:21:57.

race the establishment would like people to get behind, Marco Rubio

:21:58.:22:02.

and Ted Cruz, are to the right of Trump on abortion and immigration

:22:03.:22:05.

and some other issues. You are quite right to suggest that we are

:22:06.:22:08.

following it from afar. Of course, the vote we're following more

:22:09.:22:13.

closely is the looming vote on EU membership, the referendum on that.

:22:14.:22:17.

Your former boss has laid out his stall fairly effectively. Are you

:22:18.:22:22.

impressed by it? Look, one thing I think is important for such an

:22:23.:22:27.

important debate is for me not to get involved from afar. I don't want

:22:28.:22:34.

to wade into that from a long distance away. Let's pretent tend

:22:35.:22:39.

you are next door. I don't want to get involved. Better to leave the

:22:40.:22:43.

debate to you over there. You haven't made a secret in the past

:22:44.:22:48.

about your scepticism of the European project, I presume that

:22:49.:22:51.

hasn't changed? Neither has David Cameron. He himself has said there

:22:52.:22:55.

is no way he sees the EU as being perfect or an organisation or an

:22:56.:22:59.

approach to governance that absolutely ideal. So I think, being

:23:00.:23:05.

a critic of the EU doesn't necessarily put you in one camp or

:23:06.:23:08.

the other. I fully appreciate you don't want to endorse David

:23:09.:23:12.

Cameron's position or condemn it, but in many ways that speaks volumes

:23:13.:23:17.

itself, doesn't it? I think it's not right to get involved from a long

:23:18.:23:21.

way A former director away. Of strategy at Number Ten Downing

:23:22.:23:26.

Street doesn't feel it would be right to get involved about the

:23:27.:23:29.

biggest issue that the residents of the Number Ten Downing Street is

:23:30.:23:32.

going to tackle in his career, come on? I don't think it's reasonable to

:23:33.:23:38.

get involved from a long way away. It's a vivid and highly energised

:23:39.:23:42.

debate right now. I just don't think it would be right, beamed into your

:23:43.:23:46.

studio for me to make an intervention. Do you think we might

:23:47.:23:51.

leave, leaving aside the battle. Do you think the result might go the

:23:52.:23:55.

way of the Brexit campaign? You have months of campaigning and, as we

:23:56.:23:58.

have seen here in the US, anything can happen. Indeed. Steve Hilton,

:23:59.:24:01.

many thanks indeed. You may remember the excitement

:24:02.:24:05.

in 1997 when Deep Blue, a computer, defeated

:24:06.:24:08.

the chess grandmaster, That moment was considered a great

:24:09.:24:09.

leap forward for artificial intelligence - a sign that computers

:24:10.:24:13.

could now better mankind at even Now, almost 20 years later,

:24:14.:24:16.

technology developed in London is about rewrite the rulebook again

:24:17.:24:20.

as it takes on the World Champion at the ancient Chinese

:24:21.:24:25.

board game of Go. If it wins, some experts believe

:24:26.:24:30.

this will be the greatest breakthrough yet in the quest

:24:31.:24:34.

for robots to mimic minds. Former Downing Street tech adviser,

:24:35.:24:38.

Rohan Silva, is one of them and he's Until recently, computers have

:24:39.:24:41.

been relatively simple. Even the most powerful machines can

:24:42.:24:57.

only carry out the specific tasks This limits the scope

:24:58.:25:00.

of what they can do, After all, the real world

:25:01.:25:05.

is messy and unpredictable and computers aren't good

:25:06.:25:15.

at dealing with that. But what if machines

:25:16.:25:17.

could think like humans? What if software could learn

:25:18.:25:20.

new things by itself? That's been a goal of scientists

:25:21.:25:23.

working on artificial intelligence since the very dawn

:25:24.:25:26.

of the information age. But it's proved

:25:27.:25:28.

a near impossible task. A piece of software,

:25:29.:25:31.

developed in London, the biggest step forward

:25:32.:25:41.

in artificial intelligence It was developed playing simple

:25:42.:25:43.

computer games and now it's about to take on the best

:25:44.:25:52.

player in the world, A game of such complexity

:25:53.:25:54.

and intuition, no machine has ever AlphaGo's creator is the British

:25:55.:25:59.

start-up, Google Deepmind. So the game of Go has just two

:26:00.:26:06.

rules, but out of those rules There are more possible board

:26:07.:26:10.

configurations in the game of Go than there are atoms

:26:11.:26:14.

in the universe. So really, it takes a whole

:26:15.:26:16.

lifetime to master. We're ready for the next step

:26:17.:26:18.

for us, which is the ultimate challenge - to take on one

:26:19.:26:21.

of the world's top Go players. So we've decided to challenge

:26:22.:26:26.

Lee Sedol in a $1 million Lee Sedol is the greatest Go

:26:27.:26:29.

player of the last decade. Probably one of the greatest Go

:26:30.:26:33.

players of all time. I describe him as the Roger Federer

:26:34.:26:36.

of Go and, you know, the press and the excitement

:26:37.:26:39.

there is just huge from the general population, because they really love

:26:40.:26:42.

technology and they love Go. Human professional players,

:26:43.:26:50.

at the top of the game, they're extremely creative

:26:51.:26:52.

and they'll do unexpected things So we're pretty confident,

:26:53.:26:54.

our internal tests are saying we should do pretty well,

:26:55.:26:58.

but Lee Sedol has been interviewed by the Korean press and he's very

:26:59.:27:01.

confident of winning, so it's going to be a very

:27:02.:27:07.

interesting match-up. Of course, this isn't the first time

:27:08.:27:09.

computers have beaten humans But what really marks out AlphaGo

:27:10.:27:12.

from the machines that mastered noughts and crosses in the 1950s,

:27:13.:27:19.

and eventually chess, in the 1990s, is not

:27:20.:27:22.

just its ability to play a much It's the way it plays

:27:23.:27:25.

the game - by learning. AlphaGo actually learns how to play

:27:26.:27:29.

in quite a human-like manner. So the way we start off training

:27:30.:27:32.

AlphaGo is by showing it 100,000 games that strong amateurs have

:27:33.:27:37.

played, that we've downloaded We first initially get AlphaGo

:27:38.:27:39.

to mimic the human player, so we give it a position,

:27:40.:27:44.

and we train it to predict the move But of course, ultimately,

:27:45.:27:48.

we would like AlphaGo to be stronger than human amateurs, and compete

:27:49.:27:55.

with the top professionals. So the way we do that is,

:27:56.:27:58.

after we take that first version, that's learned to mimic human play,

:27:59.:28:02.

we then allow it to play itself 30 million times, on our servers,

:28:03.:28:06.

and using reinforcement learning, the system learns to improve

:28:07.:28:10.

itself incrementally through avoiding its errors,

:28:11.:28:13.

and increasing and improving its win rate against older

:28:14.:28:18.

versions of itself. After all these games,

:28:19.:28:21.

then you end up with a new version that can beat the old version,

:28:22.:28:25.

the original version, The computer Deep Blue has tonight

:28:26.:28:27.

triumphed over the world chess It's the first time a machine has

:28:28.:28:34.

defeated a reigning World Champion Kasparov, after the move

:28:35.:28:38.

C4, has resigned. This is in many ways a more

:28:39.:28:46.

interesting piece of software than Deep Blue, which was the piece

:28:47.:28:49.

of code that did beat Garry Kasparov Why are people excited

:28:50.:28:53.

at the moment? I think that's because these machine

:28:54.:28:58.

learning techniques have made a little bit of a breakthrough,

:28:59.:29:01.

at the sort of lowest level of functionality that's

:29:02.:29:06.

really important for AI, So being able to take raw data,

:29:07.:29:08.

large quantities of raw data, such as images or sounds,

:29:09.:29:13.

and to be able to do the basic processing and recognise

:29:14.:29:17.

what's there. Key to understanding why AlphaGo

:29:18.:29:20.

could be a much bigger breakthrough than Deep Blue is to see just how

:29:21.:29:23.

differently the two machines work. Deep Blue was programmed

:29:24.:29:27.

to recognise the value of each piece It then used raw computing power

:29:28.:29:30.

to search every possibility, It's a bit like trying every

:29:31.:29:36.

password combination until the safe unlocks, but ask Deep Blue to do

:29:37.:29:43.

anything other than play chess, like even play a much simpler game,

:29:44.:29:46.

and it just won't know Like a human, it can't measure

:29:47.:29:50.

all the possibilities in Go. Instead, AlphaGo teaches itself

:29:51.:29:58.

to play the game by watching thousands of others,

:29:59.:30:04.

playing matches against itself, When historians come to write

:30:05.:30:08.

about the 21st Century, I believe this match will be seen

:30:09.:30:14.

as a pivotal moment in our Because as Deepmind software shows,

:30:15.:30:18.

we may be entering an age of thinking machines and general

:30:19.:30:23.

artificial intelligence, capable of carryling out a huge

:30:24.:30:27.

number of tasks currently Whether or not Deepmind wins

:30:28.:30:30.

the game, it's likely that intelligent machines

:30:31.:30:35.

are going to have a profound impact AI can make great contributions

:30:36.:30:38.

to things liked medical imaging diagnosis, to self-driving cars,

:30:39.:30:48.

to image recognition processing, so that computers can understand

:30:49.:30:50.

what they see. Going beyond this, real general AI

:30:51.:30:53.

means that these systems can do all of these things together,

:30:54.:30:56.

and maybe can guide robots to make the right decisions,

:30:57.:31:00.

so that they can behave with humans The whole point about general AI

:31:01.:31:04.

is to not put bounds on any specific thing they can do, but to provide

:31:05.:31:11.

a general technology whereby computers can make smart decisions,

:31:12.:31:15.

can understand what they're doing. That's the really open challenge

:31:16.:31:22.

for AI, is to try to make AI more and more general, and more and more

:31:23.:31:25.

robust to situations that it The next step for Deepmind's

:31:26.:31:29.

technology is applying it to real world situations,

:31:30.:31:36.

not just games. The idea is that, you know,

:31:37.:31:39.

these algorithms that we're working on are general purpose and can be

:31:40.:31:44.

translated into these new domains, so we'd love to use these types

:31:45.:31:48.

of algorithms for things like health care and science, and improve

:31:49.:31:53.

the speed of breakthroughs in those areas by helping human

:31:54.:31:57.

experts achieve more. The match against the world's best

:31:58.:32:04.

Go player is a key milestone It could represent the dawn

:32:05.:32:07.

of machines that think like humans and open up the possibility

:32:08.:32:12.

of advanced artificial intelligence, This may all sound like science

:32:13.:32:15.

fiction, but now it might really be The beautiful game is at its ugliest

:32:16.:32:21.

when attention turns to the personal morality and apparent sexual

:32:22.:32:36.

incontinence of some players. The conviction this week of former

:32:37.:32:38.

Sunderland and England winger, Adam Johnson, for engaging in sexual

:32:39.:32:40.

activity with a 15-year-old girl, has brought many attendant issues

:32:41.:32:43.

into particularly sharp focus, with swathes of social media

:32:44.:32:45.

contributors blaming Johnson's victim for his crimes

:32:46.:32:47.

and the players' union calling today for footballers to receive more

:32:48.:32:49.

education about "personal COMMENTATOR: Now for Adam Johnson.

:32:50.:32:51.

Shooting in. Like so many young Premiership

:32:52.:33:08.

footballers, Adam Johnson A multi-million-pound contract

:33:09.:33:11.

and a great playing career But it was a sexual encounter

:33:12.:33:14.

with a girl he knew to be under age In one series of messages,

:33:15.:33:20.

the victim clearly tells In the next, he makes it clear

:33:21.:33:26.

exactly why he wants to see her. He finishes by telling her to keep

:33:27.:33:35.

deleting their exchanges. Now those who supported Johnson

:33:36.:33:37.

are coming to terms with his crimes. I was aware of his plea

:33:38.:33:43.

for all charges to be not guilty. Just before the trial started,

:33:44.:33:49.

to hear that he had pleaded guilty was a massive shock to everybody,

:33:50.:33:52.

everybody at the football club, which the football took

:33:53.:33:54.

swift and direct action As Johnson awaits sentencing,

:33:55.:33:56.

it leaves football asking more Can the game do anything

:33:57.:34:07.

to stop its allure being used With me here, Mihir Bose,

:34:08.:34:12.

a sports journalist who has written Joining me from Sheffield

:34:13.:34:19.

is Richard Caborn, who was Sports Minister under

:34:20.:34:22.

the last labour Government. O something in the budget to

:34:23.:34:31.

clamp-down on that. Many thanks indeed.

:34:32.:34:34.

Obviously, Adam Johnson particular crime is not one thankfully we see

:34:35.:34:39.

replicated across football, but it was committed against a backdrop of

:34:40.:34:45.

a sort of moral vacuum. We use the word veteran perhaps rudely in the

:34:46.:34:48.

introduction, as you look back over the years you have been covering

:34:49.:34:53.

football. Is that new development or has there always been a sense of

:34:54.:34:57.

impunity about the top players? There have been bad footballers who

:34:58.:35:01.

have done bad things, what we have is a dysfunctional system. Football

:35:02.:35:04.

has become business. Club has become business. At the same time it

:35:05.:35:08.

portrays itself as a community thing, it has a moral sense, and

:35:09.:35:14.

what this case shows is where is the club's moral sense? Because what

:35:15.:35:17.

Johnson did, what the club knew, we don't know for a fact what the club

:35:18.:35:22.

exactly knew, what did it do, to, if you like educate Johnson, it is not

:35:23.:35:26.

just the players union thing, the clubs have a responsibility and the

:35:27.:35:30.

club claims to be a community club, the club of Sunderland, this was a

:35:31.:35:36.

young 15-year-old, who was, who worships Sunderland, worships

:35:37.:35:39.

Johnson which is how the whole thing started, where is the duty of care

:35:40.:35:43.

to the season ticket holder o the fan? This is where the moral vacuum

:35:44.:35:48.

has come. The clubs have spent too much time becoming businesses, and

:35:49.:35:53.

forgetting how they originated and also what they say their main

:35:54.:35:56.

appeal, that we are not just a business, we are more nan a

:35:57.:36:00.

business. How, education is one thing, how do you discipline or

:36:01.:36:06.

punish a man, earning 60,000 Bourne a week whose presence on the pitch

:36:07.:36:11.

will have a direct affect on the profitability of the club or company

:36:12.:36:15.

he works for? But in any proper situation, he would have been

:36:16.:36:19.

suspended. Not played. They originally suspend him, brought him

:36:20.:36:23.

back, the question is not whether he should have been dismissed but the

:36:24.:36:26.

club new a serious charge is made, then they howl not have played him.

:36:27.:36:30.

They should have suspended him but the club was then facing a

:36:31.:36:33.

relegation battle, he is a very important player and the question

:36:34.:36:37.

the club hasn't answered is why did they remove that suspension? Is it

:36:38.:36:41.

because they needed to stay in the Premier League and all the money it

:36:42.:36:46.

brings or is there some other reason? Sunderland are themselves in

:36:47.:36:53.

the dock, but if you could step away from that particular case and tell

:36:54.:36:59.

me what you as a man who didn't have a background in professional support

:37:00.:37:02.

was struck by between the relationship between football and

:37:03.:37:05.

morality. I agree to some extent with that. It is wider than that. It

:37:06.:37:10.

is about the responsibility of the world of football, to put its house

:37:11.:37:14.

in order. And some of us have been asking for that, that, I have worked

:37:15.:37:17.

with a group of people who for the last ten years have been saying why

:37:18.:37:21.

don't we have an independent service set up that can advice, give

:37:22.:37:26.

counselling, education, to, we are taking young people now, into, young

:37:27.:37:31.

people into this profession, the profession of football at nine years

:37:32.:37:35.

of age, and that is really where it ought to start. We put forward the

:37:36.:37:39.

players' programme where there ought to be this education programme, we

:37:40.:37:44.

ought to have a proper counselling service, the other part in this

:37:45.:37:47.

profession is how these players are dealt with. They are not dealt with

:37:48.:37:51.

as people, they are dealt with as commodities by the agents, so the

:37:52.:37:57.

whole structure is actually artificial, yes, ?60,000 a week they

:37:58.:38:01.

were paying to Johnson, but that, I think when you look at the round,

:38:02.:38:05.

when you are taking young people into what is a very artificial

:38:06.:38:09.

world, without any counselling, without any support, I think the

:38:10.:38:13.

profession of football ought to be looking at it. There are demands and

:38:14.:38:17.

for the PFA to say it is about education, I have been asking the

:38:18.:38:21.

PFA and the League Managers' Association, and the Premier League,

:38:22.:38:26.

and the FA to set up an independent service for the last ten year, and

:38:27.:38:30.

they have not done that. Briefly why not? , why do you think they

:38:31.:38:35.

haven't? I don't know. I think that is a question that football itself

:38:36.:38:40.

has to ask. It is no good, the PFA saying they want education, we have

:38:41.:38:45.

put on the table to them, a programme, what we call the players

:38:46.:38:48.

programme to start at nine years of age and help these young people to

:38:49.:38:54.

be able to manage much more responsibly the profession of

:38:55.:38:57.

football. It is a wake up call they ought to take to heart.

:38:58.:39:04.

In a sentence, how optimistic are you that football will learn any

:39:05.:39:09.

lessons from this? I don't think football will learn lesson, we have

:39:10.:39:13.

have a lot of sound bites and football will say it is not our

:39:14.:39:15.

responsibility. We are present aggregate game. The Premier League

:39:16.:39:18.

is a wonderful product. And that will be the end of the story. Watch

:39:19.:39:25.

this space. Many thanks. As the sighs of panicking parents

:39:26.:39:28.

subside for another year, we thought we would mark World Book Day not

:39:29.:39:32.

with costumes, cobbled together at the last minute, guilty. But with a

:39:33.:39:36.

celebration of what is really important about books. What is on

:39:37.:39:40.

the outside. Here are some of our favourite covers.

:39:41.:39:40.

Good night.

:39:41.:39:43.

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