Browse content similar to 03/03/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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As the Chancellor mulls major reforms to the pension system, | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
Radical changes to pensions tax relief could hit millions of higher | :00:08. | :00:11. | |
earners. But would the Chancellor do something so drastic - | :00:12. | :00:14. | |
and potentially unpopular - just before the EU referendum? | :00:15. | :00:23. | |
If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, | :00:24. | :00:26. | |
the prospect for a safe and prosperous future | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
The Republican Establishment fights back. | :00:29. | :00:35. | |
But will Mitt Romney's attack actually help Donald Trump? | :00:36. | :00:40. | |
David Cameron's former adviser has been watching the race. | :00:41. | :00:49. | |
Also tonight - could an ancient Chinese board game help build | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
A piece of software developed in London could just herald | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
the biggest step forward in artificial intelligence | :00:57. | :00:58. | |
Death and taxes might be civilisation's only certainties, | :00:59. | :01:13. | |
Some of us already draw one, some of us pay into one, | :01:14. | :01:17. | |
some of us don't, but all of us expect to receive one one day. | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
But what can the modern British worker expect their pension to look | :01:22. | :01:24. | |
like and when can we expect to get it? | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
How much should Government be doing to ensure that the most help goes | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
to those with greatest need and should the age at which we get | :01:34. | :01:36. | |
one depend not just on how old we are, but also on the kind | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
As the Chancellor prepares to address at least some of these | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
questions in his looming budget, Newsnight's Chris Cook has taken | :01:47. | :01:48. | |
The world of work is always changing, but one question | :01:49. | :02:05. | |
is a constant - how do you get people to pay | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
Tax policy is a critical lever and we may be the cusp | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
I think major changes are more likely than not. | :02:14. | :02:22. | |
There's been a lot of pension reform already and tax relief is, | :02:23. | :02:25. | |
Workplace pensions are all about deferring income, | :02:26. | :02:32. | |
delaying the moment when you receive a portion of your pay, | :02:33. | :02:35. | |
until the time when you can actually enjoy it. | :02:36. | :02:37. | |
Pensions get the benefit of tax relief. | :02:38. | :02:40. | |
That means the state waives income tax on money that people put aside | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
Now, there are critical discussions going on about the future | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
At the moment, any income you put into your pension | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
Any gains your pension pot makes are also not taxed. | :02:54. | :03:01. | |
You're not taxed on money while it's in there. | :03:02. | :03:03. | |
It's only at the end, when you start drawing an income | :03:04. | :03:06. | |
This arrangement is known as exempt-exempt-tax or EET. | :03:07. | :03:17. | |
Your pension is tax exempt when you put money in, | :03:18. | :03:20. | |
exempt as it's invested and it's only taxed as it's withdrawn. | :03:21. | :03:26. | |
Paying tax at the end of the process means your tax payments | :03:27. | :03:29. | |
reflect your actual income in retirement. | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
In any given year, the Chancellor foregoes tens of billions of pounds | :03:35. | :03:37. | |
of tax because when people put their money into a pension, | :03:38. | :03:39. | |
he doesn't get the tax on that wage, he says - | :03:40. | :03:42. | |
don't worry, I won't tax you now, I'll tax you when you | :03:43. | :03:45. | |
The question is, could you lose that money in the current year and get | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
more people to do more saving, better than we do now, | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
and, unequivocally, the answer to that is, yes. | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
A radical idea currently being considered by the Treasury | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
would completely change how we tax pensions. | :04:00. | :04:00. | |
Rather than waiting until the end, until you're drawing an income | :04:01. | :04:03. | |
to claim tax off you, the taxman would instead tax money | :04:04. | :04:06. | |
as you're putting it into your pension scheme. | :04:07. | :04:12. | |
So this changes things to tax-exempt-exempt or TEE. | :04:13. | :04:14. | |
You'd pay into your pension scheme after you've been taxed, | :04:15. | :04:16. | |
meaning that the tax burden falls on current earnings | :04:17. | :04:18. | |
and then your pension would be totally tax-free, | :04:19. | :04:20. | |
At the moment, the Government offers a few eases, notably a tax-free lump | :04:21. | :04:33. | |
sum to bribe you to save in a pension. | :04:34. | :04:35. | |
Any new system would needed a top-up bribe, too. | :04:36. | :04:38. | |
But the Chancellor would certainly benefit now. | :04:39. | :04:41. | |
This would raise tax revenues in the short-term, | :04:42. | :04:43. | |
but cut them in the future, and that might not be wise. | :04:44. | :04:52. | |
You've got the fact that this is a policy that brings forward tax | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
revenues from future years, from a time when there'll be | :04:56. | :04:57. | |
an older population, putting more pressure on the public | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
finances, through state pensions, through the health service | :05:01. | :05:01. | |
The fear would be that that might make future governments a bit more | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
desperate and maybe a little more likely to renege on the promise that | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
withdrawals from these pension ISAs would remain tax-free. | :05:11. | :05:21. | |
So what about a less radical reform, say of tax relief? | :05:22. | :05:24. | |
At the moment, if someone in the 40% tax bracket want to put ?1 | :05:25. | :05:27. | |
in their pension, they only need to pay in 60p. | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
The Treasury puts in the remaining 40p. | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
But people in the 20% bracket have to put in 80p because the taxman | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
The reality is we're giving more money today to the better off, | :05:36. | :05:46. | |
who are already putting more money into pensions, and that's not | :05:47. | :05:48. | |
the best use of money when we have a savings crisis. | :05:49. | :05:51. | |
So my preference would be to level things up, up for lower | :05:52. | :05:54. | |
rate taxpayers at 20%, down for higher rate taxpayers. | :05:55. | :05:56. | |
The pensions industry likes this idea. | :05:57. | :06:04. | |
It would be a less disruptive change. | :06:05. | :06:07. | |
This model might also save about ?6 billion a year | :06:08. | :06:10. | |
for the Treasury, but it looks a lot more like a straight tax hike | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
on higher earners, it would also cause an administrative headache, | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
and the Chancellor may not want to upend the pension system, | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
David Grossman is our Political Editor and he's | :06:19. | :06:28. | |
Was dreaming or was there a promise that a Conservative Government | :06:29. | :06:43. | |
wouldn't go near tax relief? We can quote from a central office briefing | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
note from April last year, which says we believe the pensions tax | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
relief system will be fair and affordable and we will not propose | :06:51. | :06:53. | |
any further changes to that. Is during the next Parliament. So in | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
the process, the Chancellor could be accused of going back on commitment | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
made before the election and annoying large numbers of people who | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
have voted for the Conservatives, because not only were they told | :07:05. | :07:07. | |
there aren't any plans to do that, they were told the only way to stop | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
Labour doing us wit to vote Conservative. Why is he suggesting | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
he might be doing it? The ansz is ten, maybe 15, maybe ?20 billion of | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
extra income he could get in the process. Income as one of our | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
interviewees suggested, a future Chancellor could be left feeling the | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
pinch of. Exactly. What he is doing is perhaps taking the money, that | :07:32. | :07:37. | |
future Chancellor might earn, or tax, pensioners with, but that | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
Chancellor may not have been born yet. And it is not just voter, there | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
will be Conservative MPs who are a little troubled by this. Why and how | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
long a shadow the referendum cast over this whole process? Well, | :07:50. | :07:57. | |
partly kith MPs are annoyed about going back, annoying their core | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
voter, some activists in the constituency ises, there is this | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
referendum of course, the wisdom is, that if you are going to do | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
something unpopular or something you are voters might not like get it | :08:10. | :08:12. | |
down early, that is when your mandate and majority are freshest | :08:13. | :08:17. | |
and the voters have time to forgive you. We are going into a referendum | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
in 120 days' time, a bit less than that, The, one of the core groups | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
that are wavering in the middle of this are some of the affluent people | :08:26. | :08:29. | |
whose hearts may tell them they would like to vote to leave the EU | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
but their heads maybe susceptible to arguments that the Chancellor is | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
making about their best economic interests. If they don't trust the | :08:37. | :08:39. | |
Chancellor, if they feel the Chancellor hasn't got their best | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
interests at heart they maybe harder to win over in all this. So the | :08:43. | :08:44. | |
stakes are high. Let us Mark Garnier, a Conservative MP | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
who sits on the Treasury Select Committee, and Josephine Cumbo, | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
the pensions correspondent for the Financial Times, | :08:54. | :08:55. | |
whose reporting has led the coverage You are splashing tomorrow with a | :08:56. | :09:04. | |
warning to the Chancellor from one of his own Pensions Ministers he | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
perhaps needs to calm down, if not slow down. Think what we are seeing | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
now is the tensions and concerns and fears are really starting to | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
surface, that what the Chancellor is going to announce in the budget, | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
while saving the Treasury billions of pounds could cause deep damage to | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
the retirement system. In July last year, he announced the consultation | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
on the future of saving incentives for retirement and at the time he | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
said it was going to be an open consultation, but the only option he | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
really mentioned at the time was the pension ISA, during the consul | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
location there has been a core Corus of industry representatives and MPs | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
queueing up to say that this is a wrong idea, it could lead to severe | :09:49. | :09:53. | |
complications for the industry, you will have two systems running at the | :09:54. | :09:57. | |
same time, you will have an old pension system and a new pension | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
system. There are concerns that a futures Chancellor might say well, I | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
am going to start taxing the income that George Osborne promised was | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
going to be tax free, so that could really hit pensions saving and | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
confidence in pension savings at a time when the UK is starting to | :10:16. | :10:21. | |
enrol people in pensions through automatic enel rollment. There is | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
two possibilities on the table really. There is the ISA and you | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
explained and the flat rate of tax which was very well explained in the | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
film. I sense from your journalism you are too wise to place bettings, | :10:35. | :10:38. | |
which would you say he is closest to? He is attracted to the pension | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
Isa. He likes to make bold decision, let us think back to 2014, when he | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
stood up at the despatch box and said no-one will have to buy an | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
annuity. That came out the blue, there must be a big temptation for | :10:53. | :11:00. | |
him to do that again, in spite of the range of opponents he has had to | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
doing anything drastic. Something has to give doesn't it? The notion | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
that the lowest earners get the least help to save for their few | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
while the highest get the most help. If it wasn't true it would be | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
unthinkable. O Think you are right. The numbers speak for themselves. If | :11:18. | :11:23. | |
you look at the 10% of people who earn more than ?50,000, they | :11:24. | :11:25. | |
represent 47% of pension contributions and if you look at the | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
1% who earn more than ?150,000, they represent 14%. So clearly, it is | :11:31. | :11:36. | |
skewed in favour of the richer people, who have more disposable | :11:37. | :11:39. | |
income. So it could be partly to do with the incentive and the fact if | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
you have ?150,000 you have a lot more disposable voluntary income | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
than if you are on ?12 nap,000. I think what we have done so far is | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
like House of Lords reform. We have done a bit but haven't finished the | :11:55. | :11:57. | |
whole journey. There is talk about this pension Isa where it will be | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
taxed on the way in and there is a possibility there may be a | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
contribution by the Government. If the contribution is 50-50, for each | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
pound put in everybody, including the high rate taxpayer's will be | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
better off. I think one of the problems facing the pension | :12:13. | :12:15. | |
industry, and facing pensions in general is that the Holy Grail of | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
this is getting people to put as much money as they can in to their | :12:20. | :12:24. | |
pension pot as early as they can. I think that really clever thinking on | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
this would be able to work out a system where by people can look at | :12:29. | :12:32. | |
their entire lifetime savings schemes, and perhaps we could come | :12:33. | :12:38. | |
up with a system where by the pension system can be allied with | :12:39. | :12:43. | |
mortgage guarantees, so people could start looking at this sort of, | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
together rather than a separate entities. You are proposing a third | :12:48. | :12:53. | |
way, you don't like the idea of equalising the playing field so | :12:54. | :12:56. | |
however much you earn the amount of help you get remains the same It | :12:57. | :12:59. | |
will cause a lot of the problems, if you are going to create the problems | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
you need to have something really important that is going to come | :13:04. | :13:08. | |
along with it. If we go to the flat rate of, the flat rate of discount, | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
then you end up with this problem of the hybrid, you have half in one | :13:13. | :13:15. | |
type of pension and another in another type of pension, you have | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
the administration, it will be very difficult for pay role managers so | :13:20. | :13:22. | |
that will be difficult. Then you have the contribution of the vt go, | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
so that could be expensive. Anything is going to be difficult. I was | :13:27. | :13:30. | |
thinking more of fairness. Yes, I think one of the inthises which I | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
would be keen on, if he is going to make change, I think you have to | :13:35. | :13:38. | |
give people a lot of warning, what, I am getting people who are writing | :13:39. | :13:41. | |
to me and stopping me in the street, saying is he going to do something? | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
Should be I be worried about my tax free lump sum? If you are saving for | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
your pension you have spent your life focussing on the one point when | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
you retire. At the closer you get to that the less options you have | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
available in order to mitigate any changes, so the key thing I, I | :13:58. | :14:00. | |
think, would be if he is going to make changes he has to give really a | :14:01. | :14:05. | |
decade's warning before they come into play. Very briefly, what do you | :14:06. | :14:09. | |
say when you are stopped in the street, to the voters who say you | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
promised they wouldn't go near this issue and they are. They are looking | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
at it. It is right to have a look at it. At the end of the day the tax | :14:19. | :14:25. | |
credit given to pensions in this country is worth billions they get | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
back 13 billion on taxes, paid on pensions coming out. It is not as | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
simple as it sounds but that is the problem they have got. But I come | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
back to this remaining point point, which is if eare going to change | :14:39. | :14:42. | |
something people like me and my colleagues will be advising the | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
Chancellor we have to give people plenty of warning. A decade is not | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
unreasonable I think. I don't think that would happen. He would be | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
looking for savings to balance the books by 2020. People are diving in | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
and maxing owl their pension contributions on concerns that high | :15:00. | :15:02. | |
rate relieve is going. He would have to do something in the budget to | :15:03. | :15:05. | |
clamp-down on that. Many thanks indeed. | :15:06. | :15:09. | |
Start any observation about the performance or prospects | :15:10. | :15:11. | |
of Donald Trump at the moment and you run a very real risk | :15:12. | :15:14. | |
of being comprehensively disproved before you've | :15:15. | :15:16. | |
But, it's probably fair to say, that much of his appeal lies | :15:17. | :15:24. | |
in his supporters' deep dislike of mainstream politicians. | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
So the fact that very senior mainstream politicians | :15:30. | :15:32. | |
from within his own Party are now queueing up to condemn him, | :15:33. | :15:35. | |
in the strongest of terms, could be construed as evidence | :15:36. | :15:37. | |
If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, | :15:38. | :15:46. | |
the prospect for a safe and prosperous future | :15:47. | :15:48. | |
If Donald Trump's plans were ever implemented, | :15:49. | :15:55. | |
the country would sink into prolonged recession. | :15:56. | :15:58. | |
Doesn't he know what he's talking about? | :15:59. | :16:02. | |
Look, his bankruptcies have crushed small businesses and the men | :16:03. | :16:12. | |
He inherited his business, he didn't create it. | :16:13. | :16:19. | |
Mr Romney was joined in his condemnation of Mr Trump | :16:20. | :16:21. | |
by another former Republican presidential hopeful, | :16:22. | :16:25. | |
John McCain, who said he "shared the concerns about Donald Trump" | :16:26. | :16:28. | |
and criticised Mr Trump's "uninformed and indeed dangerous | :16:29. | :16:39. | |
Mr Trump had a few choice words for Mr Romney in return. | :16:40. | :16:43. | |
Look, I'll just address it quickly, because it's irrelevant. | :16:44. | :16:45. | |
Steve Hilton, David Cameron's former strategy director, | :16:46. | :16:53. | |
now based in San Francisco, joins us to make sense | :16:54. | :16:55. | |
That's quite a big ask, Steve Hilton, can you make sense of it for | :16:56. | :17:06. | |
us? I'll have a go. Good to be with you. I think what's going on here is | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
actually pretty profound. We live in a world run by bankers and | :17:13. | :17:15. | |
bureaucrats and accountants, people like Mitt Romney. Those people, | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
regardless of who has been in power, for the last few decades have been | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
pushing an agenda, an ideological agenda, that it favours big | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
businesses over small. That champions globalisation and open | :17:31. | :17:32. | |
immigration, whatever the cost of that. It's been pretty inhuman and | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
callous about the impact of that approach to government on the real | :17:39. | :17:40. | |
lives of working people. Basically, I think people are sick of it. They | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
are sick and tired that. They are sick and tired of being told to suck | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
it up and deal with it because it's the world we live in. That is what | :17:49. | :17:53. | |
is driving support for Trump. On the left for Bernie Sanders. Someone | :17:54. | :17:58. | |
like Mitt Romney, who pretty much epitomises that approach to | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
government, which is being comprehensively rejected. Is about | :18:03. | :18:05. | |
the worse person you could ask for to make the argument against Trump. | :18:06. | :18:11. | |
Judd Trump trump has dealt with John McCain by questioning his heroic | :18:12. | :18:18. | |
status. Neither Romney or McCain have learnt the lesson, they feel | :18:19. | :18:22. | |
the way to get him is conventional weapons. He doesn't recognise | :18:23. | :18:25. | |
conventional warfare in political terms? I think that's right. | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
Actually, we need to dissting swish somewhat between the froth of the | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
campaign, Trump is very good at that, getting attention for | :18:35. | :18:37. | |
statements which every now and again go beyond the boundaries of what | :18:38. | :18:41. | |
people might consider to be acceptable. People di discounted, | :18:42. | :18:48. | |
dissupporters discount it, because they identify with the substantive | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
argument that underlice that. The other point is his character and | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
temperament. Mitt Romney made the argument that his character and | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
temperament disqualifies him from being President. Again, it's | :19:02. | :19:04. | |
precisely his character that people are responding to. The idea that he | :19:05. | :19:07. | |
is not some smooth-talking politician. He is actually a strong | :19:08. | :19:11. | |
guy who is going to get in there and shake things up. That is exactly | :19:12. | :19:14. | |
what people If you were want. Looking after one of his opponents, | :19:15. | :19:17. | |
what would you advise them to do next? Well, I don't know. I'm not | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
that involved, so I don't think of it necessarily in those terms. I | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
think one thing that is clear is that, as the race is going on, there | :19:28. | :19:34. | |
is more time, for example, in the Presidential debates, another one | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
here in the States, for focus on the actual policy agendas of these | :19:39. | :19:42. | |
various candidates and to look at the substance of what they're saying | :19:43. | :19:45. | |
it. Seems to me there is more concentration on that. That will | :19:46. | :19:49. | |
only increase once you get into the general election setting. I think | :19:50. | :19:54. | |
someone like John Kasich, who is around right now in terms of the | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
state of the race, he is the governor of of Ohio. A distant | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
fourth in the race right now. He is still sticking to a positive agenda, | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
setting out how he would solve these same problems. His analysis is | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
pretty much consistent with the same arguments Trump is making he is | :20:13. | :20:16. | |
putting something which is a little more tangible. That could over the | :20:17. | :20:20. | |
next few weeks, prove to be quite a good way of approaching it. Tangible | :20:21. | :20:25. | |
versus toxic, if you like. I was reading a piece, # 0 years old, from | :20:26. | :20:32. | |
the New York Times, they explained that Adolf Hitler's anti-Semitism | :20:33. | :20:36. | |
wasn't here, exaggerated but to carry favour with the sentiments | :20:37. | :20:40. | |
that American voters are feeling. History suggest that is over | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
optimistic. Do you think Donald Trump is as nasty as he seems with | :20:45. | :20:50. | |
his descriptions of Mexicans, Muslims, building of walls and hi | :20:51. | :20:54. | |
bans of people of the wrong religion? I don't think so. It's | :20:55. | :20:58. | |
something about him. The truth about Donald Trump is that he is a pretty | :20:59. | :21:05. | |
non--ideological, pragmatic, problem-solving businessman who says | :21:06. | :21:08. | |
the first thing that comes into his head much I don't think he makes | :21:09. | :21:14. | |
these statements because there an underlying, bigoted or ideologically | :21:15. | :21:16. | |
driven point of view about people from other countries or races. I | :21:17. | :21:20. | |
just don't think that's how he is. He is very much someone who speaks | :21:21. | :21:25. | |
off the hoof. There is another important point, it might be easy in | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
people in the UK to follow the race from afar to conclude from some of | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
the things that Trump is saying he is pretty much another crazy | :21:34. | :21:36. | |
right-wing American politician. In fact, it's the opposite. One of the | :21:37. | :21:40. | |
reasons that the Republican establishment is really worried | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
about Trump and rounding on him, is not that he's too right-wing, it is | :21:45. | :21:50. | |
not that he's right-wing enough. They think his positions on abortion | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
and immigration are not right-wing enough. The other candidates in the | :21:55. | :21:57. | |
race the establishment would like people to get behind, Marco Rubio | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
and Ted Cruz, are to the right of Trump on abortion and immigration | :22:03. | :22:05. | |
and some other issues. You are quite right to suggest that we are | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
following it from afar. Of course, the vote we're following more | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
closely is the looming vote on EU membership, the referendum on that. | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
Your former boss has laid out his stall fairly effectively. Are you | :22:18. | :22:22. | |
impressed by it? Look, one thing I think is important for such an | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
important debate is for me not to get involved from afar. I don't want | :22:28. | :22:34. | |
to wade into that from a long distance away. Let's pretent tend | :22:35. | :22:39. | |
you are next door. I don't want to get involved. Better to leave the | :22:40. | :22:43. | |
debate to you over there. You haven't made a secret in the past | :22:44. | :22:48. | |
about your scepticism of the European project, I presume that | :22:49. | :22:51. | |
hasn't changed? Neither has David Cameron. He himself has said there | :22:52. | :22:55. | |
is no way he sees the EU as being perfect or an organisation or an | :22:56. | :22:59. | |
approach to governance that absolutely ideal. So I think, being | :23:00. | :23:05. | |
a critic of the EU doesn't necessarily put you in one camp or | :23:06. | :23:08. | |
the other. I fully appreciate you don't want to endorse David | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
Cameron's position or condemn it, but in many ways that speaks volumes | :23:13. | :23:17. | |
itself, doesn't it? I think it's not right to get involved from a long | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
way A former director away. Of strategy at Number Ten Downing | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
Street doesn't feel it would be right to get involved about the | :23:27. | :23:29. | |
biggest issue that the residents of the Number Ten Downing Street is | :23:30. | :23:32. | |
going to tackle in his career, come on? I don't think it's reasonable to | :23:33. | :23:38. | |
get involved from a long way away. It's a vivid and highly energised | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
debate right now. I just don't think it would be right, beamed into your | :23:43. | :23:46. | |
studio for me to make an intervention. Do you think we might | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
leave, leaving aside the battle. Do you think the result might go the | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
way of the Brexit campaign? You have months of campaigning and, as we | :23:56. | :23:58. | |
have seen here in the US, anything can happen. Indeed. Steve Hilton, | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
many thanks indeed. You may remember the excitement | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
in 1997 when Deep Blue, a computer, defeated | :24:06. | :24:08. | |
the chess grandmaster, That moment was considered a great | :24:09. | :24:09. | |
leap forward for artificial intelligence - a sign that computers | :24:10. | :24:13. | |
could now better mankind at even Now, almost 20 years later, | :24:14. | :24:16. | |
technology developed in London is about rewrite the rulebook again | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
as it takes on the World Champion at the ancient Chinese | :24:21. | :24:25. | |
board game of Go. If it wins, some experts believe | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
this will be the greatest breakthrough yet in the quest | :24:31. | :24:34. | |
for robots to mimic minds. Former Downing Street tech adviser, | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
Rohan Silva, is one of them and he's Until recently, computers have | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
been relatively simple. Even the most powerful machines can | :24:42. | :24:57. | |
only carry out the specific tasks This limits the scope | :24:58. | :25:00. | |
of what they can do, After all, the real world | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
is messy and unpredictable and computers aren't good | :25:06. | :25:15. | |
at dealing with that. But what if machines | :25:16. | :25:17. | |
could think like humans? What if software could learn | :25:18. | :25:20. | |
new things by itself? That's been a goal of scientists | :25:21. | :25:23. | |
working on artificial intelligence since the very dawn | :25:24. | :25:26. | |
of the information age. But it's proved | :25:27. | :25:28. | |
a near impossible task. A piece of software, | :25:29. | :25:31. | |
developed in London, the biggest step forward | :25:32. | :25:41. | |
in artificial intelligence It was developed playing simple | :25:42. | :25:43. | |
computer games and now it's about to take on the best | :25:44. | :25:52. | |
player in the world, A game of such complexity | :25:53. | :25:54. | |
and intuition, no machine has ever AlphaGo's creator is the British | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
start-up, Google Deepmind. So the game of Go has just two | :26:00. | :26:06. | |
rules, but out of those rules There are more possible board | :26:07. | :26:10. | |
configurations in the game of Go than there are atoms | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
in the universe. So really, it takes a whole | :26:15. | :26:16. | |
lifetime to master. We're ready for the next step | :26:17. | :26:18. | |
for us, which is the ultimate challenge - to take on one | :26:19. | :26:21. | |
of the world's top Go players. So we've decided to challenge | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
Lee Sedol in a $1 million Lee Sedol is the greatest Go | :26:27. | :26:29. | |
player of the last decade. Probably one of the greatest Go | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
players of all time. I describe him as the Roger Federer | :26:34. | :26:36. | |
of Go and, you know, the press and the excitement | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
there is just huge from the general population, because they really love | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
technology and they love Go. Human professional players, | :26:43. | :26:50. | |
at the top of the game, they're extremely creative | :26:51. | :26:52. | |
and they'll do unexpected things So we're pretty confident, | :26:53. | :26:54. | |
our internal tests are saying we should do pretty well, | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
but Lee Sedol has been interviewed by the Korean press and he's very | :26:59. | :27:01. | |
confident of winning, so it's going to be a very | :27:02. | :27:07. | |
interesting match-up. Of course, this isn't the first time | :27:08. | :27:09. | |
computers have beaten humans But what really marks out AlphaGo | :27:10. | :27:12. | |
from the machines that mastered noughts and crosses in the 1950s, | :27:13. | :27:19. | |
and eventually chess, in the 1990s, is not | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
just its ability to play a much It's the way it plays | :27:23. | :27:25. | |
the game - by learning. AlphaGo actually learns how to play | :27:26. | :27:29. | |
in quite a human-like manner. So the way we start off training | :27:30. | :27:32. | |
AlphaGo is by showing it 100,000 games that strong amateurs have | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
played, that we've downloaded We first initially get AlphaGo | :27:38. | :27:39. | |
to mimic the human player, so we give it a position, | :27:40. | :27:44. | |
and we train it to predict the move But of course, ultimately, | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
we would like AlphaGo to be stronger than human amateurs, and compete | :27:49. | :27:55. | |
with the top professionals. So the way we do that is, | :27:56. | :27:58. | |
after we take that first version, that's learned to mimic human play, | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
we then allow it to play itself 30 million times, on our servers, | :28:03. | :28:06. | |
and using reinforcement learning, the system learns to improve | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
itself incrementally through avoiding its errors, | :28:11. | :28:13. | |
and increasing and improving its win rate against older | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
versions of itself. After all these games, | :28:19. | :28:21. | |
then you end up with a new version that can beat the old version, | :28:22. | :28:25. | |
the original version, The computer Deep Blue has tonight | :28:26. | :28:27. | |
triumphed over the world chess It's the first time a machine has | :28:28. | :28:34. | |
defeated a reigning World Champion Kasparov, after the move | :28:35. | :28:38. | |
C4, has resigned. This is in many ways a more | :28:39. | :28:46. | |
interesting piece of software than Deep Blue, which was the piece | :28:47. | :28:49. | |
of code that did beat Garry Kasparov Why are people excited | :28:50. | :28:53. | |
at the moment? I think that's because these machine | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
learning techniques have made a little bit of a breakthrough, | :28:59. | :29:01. | |
at the sort of lowest level of functionality that's | :29:02. | :29:06. | |
really important for AI, So being able to take raw data, | :29:07. | :29:08. | |
large quantities of raw data, such as images or sounds, | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
and to be able to do the basic processing and recognise | :29:14. | :29:17. | |
what's there. Key to understanding why AlphaGo | :29:18. | :29:20. | |
could be a much bigger breakthrough than Deep Blue is to see just how | :29:21. | :29:23. | |
differently the two machines work. Deep Blue was programmed | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
to recognise the value of each piece It then used raw computing power | :29:28. | :29:30. | |
to search every possibility, It's a bit like trying every | :29:31. | :29:36. | |
password combination until the safe unlocks, but ask Deep Blue to do | :29:37. | :29:43. | |
anything other than play chess, like even play a much simpler game, | :29:44. | :29:46. | |
and it just won't know Like a human, it can't measure | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
all the possibilities in Go. Instead, AlphaGo teaches itself | :29:51. | :29:58. | |
to play the game by watching thousands of others, | :29:59. | :30:04. | |
playing matches against itself, When historians come to write | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
about the 21st Century, I believe this match will be seen | :30:09. | :30:14. | |
as a pivotal moment in our Because as Deepmind software shows, | :30:15. | :30:18. | |
we may be entering an age of thinking machines and general | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
artificial intelligence, capable of carryling out a huge | :30:24. | :30:27. | |
number of tasks currently Whether or not Deepmind wins | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
the game, it's likely that intelligent machines | :30:31. | :30:35. | |
are going to have a profound impact AI can make great contributions | :30:36. | :30:38. | |
to things liked medical imaging diagnosis, to self-driving cars, | :30:39. | :30:48. | |
to image recognition processing, so that computers can understand | :30:49. | :30:50. | |
what they see. Going beyond this, real general AI | :30:51. | :30:53. | |
means that these systems can do all of these things together, | :30:54. | :30:56. | |
and maybe can guide robots to make the right decisions, | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
so that they can behave with humans The whole point about general AI | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
is to not put bounds on any specific thing they can do, but to provide | :31:05. | :31:11. | |
a general technology whereby computers can make smart decisions, | :31:12. | :31:15. | |
can understand what they're doing. That's the really open challenge | :31:16. | :31:22. | |
for AI, is to try to make AI more and more general, and more and more | :31:23. | :31:25. | |
robust to situations that it The next step for Deepmind's | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
technology is applying it to real world situations, | :31:30. | :31:36. | |
not just games. The idea is that, you know, | :31:37. | :31:39. | |
these algorithms that we're working on are general purpose and can be | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
translated into these new domains, so we'd love to use these types | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
of algorithms for things like health care and science, and improve | :31:49. | :31:53. | |
the speed of breakthroughs in those areas by helping human | :31:54. | :31:57. | |
experts achieve more. The match against the world's best | :31:58. | :32:04. | |
Go player is a key milestone It could represent the dawn | :32:05. | :32:07. | |
of machines that think like humans and open up the possibility | :32:08. | :32:12. | |
of advanced artificial intelligence, This may all sound like science | :32:13. | :32:15. | |
fiction, but now it might really be The beautiful game is at its ugliest | :32:16. | :32:21. | |
when attention turns to the personal morality and apparent sexual | :32:22. | :32:36. | |
incontinence of some players. The conviction this week of former | :32:37. | :32:38. | |
Sunderland and England winger, Adam Johnson, for engaging in sexual | :32:39. | :32:40. | |
activity with a 15-year-old girl, has brought many attendant issues | :32:41. | :32:43. | |
into particularly sharp focus, with swathes of social media | :32:44. | :32:45. | |
contributors blaming Johnson's victim for his crimes | :32:46. | :32:47. | |
and the players' union calling today for footballers to receive more | :32:48. | :32:49. | |
education about "personal COMMENTATOR: Now for Adam Johnson. | :32:50. | :32:51. | |
Shooting in. Like so many young Premiership | :32:52. | :33:08. | |
footballers, Adam Johnson A multi-million-pound contract | :33:09. | :33:11. | |
and a great playing career But it was a sexual encounter | :33:12. | :33:14. | |
with a girl he knew to be under age In one series of messages, | :33:15. | :33:20. | |
the victim clearly tells In the next, he makes it clear | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
exactly why he wants to see her. He finishes by telling her to keep | :33:27. | :33:35. | |
deleting their exchanges. Now those who supported Johnson | :33:36. | :33:37. | |
are coming to terms with his crimes. I was aware of his plea | :33:38. | :33:43. | |
for all charges to be not guilty. Just before the trial started, | :33:44. | :33:49. | |
to hear that he had pleaded guilty was a massive shock to everybody, | :33:50. | :33:52. | |
everybody at the football club, which the football took | :33:53. | :33:54. | |
swift and direct action As Johnson awaits sentencing, | :33:55. | :33:56. | |
it leaves football asking more Can the game do anything | :33:57. | :34:07. | |
to stop its allure being used With me here, Mihir Bose, | :34:08. | :34:12. | |
a sports journalist who has written Joining me from Sheffield | :34:13. | :34:19. | |
is Richard Caborn, who was Sports Minister under | :34:20. | :34:22. | |
the last labour Government. O something in the budget to | :34:23. | :34:31. | |
clamp-down on that. Many thanks indeed. | :34:32. | :34:34. | |
Obviously, Adam Johnson particular crime is not one thankfully we see | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
replicated across football, but it was committed against a backdrop of | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
a sort of moral vacuum. We use the word veteran perhaps rudely in the | :34:46. | :34:48. | |
introduction, as you look back over the years you have been covering | :34:49. | :34:53. | |
football. Is that new development or has there always been a sense of | :34:54. | :34:57. | |
impunity about the top players? There have been bad footballers who | :34:58. | :35:01. | |
have done bad things, what we have is a dysfunctional system. Football | :35:02. | :35:04. | |
has become business. Club has become business. At the same time it | :35:05. | :35:08. | |
portrays itself as a community thing, it has a moral sense, and | :35:09. | :35:14. | |
what this case shows is where is the club's moral sense? Because what | :35:15. | :35:17. | |
Johnson did, what the club knew, we don't know for a fact what the club | :35:18. | :35:22. | |
exactly knew, what did it do, to, if you like educate Johnson, it is not | :35:23. | :35:26. | |
just the players union thing, the clubs have a responsibility and the | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
club claims to be a community club, the club of Sunderland, this was a | :35:31. | :35:36. | |
young 15-year-old, who was, who worships Sunderland, worships | :35:37. | :35:39. | |
Johnson which is how the whole thing started, where is the duty of care | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
to the season ticket holder o the fan? This is where the moral vacuum | :35:44. | :35:48. | |
has come. The clubs have spent too much time becoming businesses, and | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
forgetting how they originated and also what they say their main | :35:54. | :35:56. | |
appeal, that we are not just a business, we are more nan a | :35:57. | :36:00. | |
business. How, education is one thing, how do you discipline or | :36:01. | :36:06. | |
punish a man, earning 60,000 Bourne a week whose presence on the pitch | :36:07. | :36:11. | |
will have a direct affect on the profitability of the club or company | :36:12. | :36:15. | |
he works for? But in any proper situation, he would have been | :36:16. | :36:19. | |
suspended. Not played. They originally suspend him, brought him | :36:20. | :36:23. | |
back, the question is not whether he should have been dismissed but the | :36:24. | :36:26. | |
club new a serious charge is made, then they howl not have played him. | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
They should have suspended him but the club was then facing a | :36:31. | :36:33. | |
relegation battle, he is a very important player and the question | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
the club hasn't answered is why did they remove that suspension? Is it | :36:38. | :36:41. | |
because they needed to stay in the Premier League and all the money it | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
brings or is there some other reason? Sunderland are themselves in | :36:47. | :36:53. | |
the dock, but if you could step away from that particular case and tell | :36:54. | :36:59. | |
me what you as a man who didn't have a background in professional support | :37:00. | :37:02. | |
was struck by between the relationship between football and | :37:03. | :37:05. | |
morality. I agree to some extent with that. It is wider than that. It | :37:06. | :37:10. | |
is about the responsibility of the world of football, to put its house | :37:11. | :37:14. | |
in order. And some of us have been asking for that, that, I have worked | :37:15. | :37:17. | |
with a group of people who for the last ten years have been saying why | :37:18. | :37:21. | |
don't we have an independent service set up that can advice, give | :37:22. | :37:26. | |
counselling, education, to, we are taking young people now, into, young | :37:27. | :37:31. | |
people into this profession, the profession of football at nine years | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
of age, and that is really where it ought to start. We put forward the | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
players' programme where there ought to be this education programme, we | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
ought to have a proper counselling service, the other part in this | :37:45. | :37:47. | |
profession is how these players are dealt with. They are not dealt with | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
as people, they are dealt with as commodities by the agents, so the | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
whole structure is actually artificial, yes, ?60,000 a week they | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
were paying to Johnson, but that, I think when you look at the round, | :38:02. | :38:05. | |
when you are taking young people into what is a very artificial | :38:06. | :38:09. | |
world, without any counselling, without any support, I think the | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
profession of football ought to be looking at it. There are demands and | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
for the PFA to say it is about education, I have been asking the | :38:18. | :38:21. | |
PFA and the League Managers' Association, and the Premier League, | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
and the FA to set up an independent service for the last ten year, and | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
they have not done that. Briefly why not? , why do you think they | :38:31. | :38:35. | |
haven't? I don't know. I think that is a question that football itself | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
has to ask. It is no good, the PFA saying they want education, we have | :38:41. | :38:45. | |
put on the table to them, a programme, what we call the players | :38:46. | :38:48. | |
programme to start at nine years of age and help these young people to | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
be able to manage much more responsibly the profession of | :38:55. | :38:57. | |
football. It is a wake up call they ought to take to heart. | :38:58. | :39:04. | |
In a sentence, how optimistic are you that football will learn any | :39:05. | :39:09. | |
lessons from this? I don't think football will learn lesson, we have | :39:10. | :39:13. | |
have a lot of sound bites and football will say it is not our | :39:14. | :39:15. | |
responsibility. We are present aggregate game. The Premier League | :39:16. | :39:18. | |
is a wonderful product. And that will be the end of the story. Watch | :39:19. | :39:25. | |
this space. Many thanks. As the sighs of panicking parents | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
subside for another year, we thought we would mark World Book Day not | :39:29. | :39:32. | |
with costumes, cobbled together at the last minute, guilty. But with a | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
celebration of what is really important about books. What is on | :39:37. | :39:40. | |
the outside. Here are some of our favourite covers. | :39:41. | :39:40. | |
Good night. | :39:41. | :39:43. |