27/04/2016 Newsnight


27/04/2016

Topics include Labour and anti-semitism, the future of South Yorkshire Police, public perceptions of Donald Trump and the potential for a Labour comeback in Scotland.


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I accept and understand that the words are used caused upset and hurt

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to the Jewish community, and I deeply regret that. Anti-Semitism is

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racism, full stop. less than four hours

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after saying sorry. Labour is struggling to deal

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with the charge that it has Liverpool commemorates the loss

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of life at Hillsborough. South Yorkshire's chief

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constable is out. Where has trust in the police gone,

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and how do they get it back? And, the effects

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of a President Trump? Candidate Trump has given his first,

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serious foreign policy speech: My foreign policy will always put

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the interests of the American people and American security above all

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else. It has to be first. It has to be.

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A promising young Labour MP, Naz Shah, suspended from the party

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for comments she put on social media about Israel.

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In some, she gleefully suggested the solution to the Israel-Palestine

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problem was for Israel to be moved into the United States.

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She apologised for those and other remarks today,

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it seemed that was enough to satisfy Jeremy Corbyn.

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and the eventual decision to suspend her,

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are a sign of Labour's sensitivity to the charge

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An accusation that has been gathering traction in recent weeks.

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Fighting for equality and fairness and justice. Not only here, just

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inbred food, but across the world, and in particular, for Palestine and

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Kashmir. VOICEOVER: Less than one year ago, Naz Shah set out her pitch

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on election night, it is comments she made about Israel and the

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Palestinians before being elected that have today seen her suspended

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from Labour. The Jewish are rallying, she wrote in one Post, she

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likened Israel to Nazi Germany, in another, and suggested the implied

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transportation of Israelis Jewish to America. How offensive are these

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comments? Newsnight spotted one of the same posts in the comments left

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by the public on the page of another Labour MP. That was two years ago.

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When we pointed out to miss mood, it was deleted almost immediately. --

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Miss Mahmood. Yesterday, Naz Shah, who had posted the comment herself,

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resigned as aide to John Madonna, he had made a point of how

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anti-Semitism should be treated by the Labour Party. If people have

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express those views, there is no role for them in the party, I would

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like them out for life. Spike meeting Jeremy Corbyn this morning,

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Naz Shah had not been suspended from the party, instead, Jeremy Corbyn

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issued a statement, appearing to draw a line under the matter. What

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Naz Shah did was offensive and unacceptable, I have spoken with her

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and made this clear... Not good enough for the Shadow

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Cabinet minister. -- this. We have a policy in the Labour Party that

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people who make anti-Semitic remarks are suspended and an investigation

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is carried out, I have made clear to the leader 's office my view that

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this policy should be followed without exception. All of this

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allowing David Cameron to pile on the pressure at prime ministers

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questions today. The fact that frankly we have a Labour member of

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Parliament with the Labour whip who made remarks about the

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transportation of people from Israel to America, and talked about a

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solution, and is still in receipt of the Labour whip is quite

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extraordinary. Naz Shah later apologised. I accept and understand

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that the words are used caused upset, and hurt, to the Jewish

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community, and I deeply regret that. Then, another twist. Labour

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announced that she would be suspended, and investigated, after

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all. The honourable lady has spoken... The problem is that the

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Labour leadership are facing in terms of allegations of

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anti-Semitism do not just boil down to a lack of decisiveness, it is

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more than that, Labour MPs say that it is about their leader, Jeremy

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Corbyn, and whether he has the sincerity to really tackle this as

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an issue. This leader of a Blairite group

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inside Labour says that the party has a problem, and the leadership is

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too hesitant. I love the Labour Party and it does great things but

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there is sadly a problem and too many instances through to former

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candidates, chairs of parties, although way through now, where

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people think that it is acceptable to say these things and what has

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been sad is the response has not been what we should have expected

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and quite frankly it has not been the response that it would have been

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of any other racism. Over the past few months, a number of Labour

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councillors have been suspended over what appears to be anti-Semitic

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results, -- remarks. The chair of the University Labour club has

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stepped down, his reasoning: the Labour Party is increasingly

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feeling like somewhere that is not a natural home for Jewish people in

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the UK, what troubles me is that Jeremy Corbyn, as leader of the

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party, has not adequately dealt with these problems. This Labour MP

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thinks that the comments by Naz Shah are the latest to cross the line

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from acceptable criticism of Israel, which is not anti-Semitic, into

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something more troubling. Criticism of Israel is personally justified,

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like any other country can be criticised, I have done a good deal

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of criticism of it myself, is ready policies. The way in which she put

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forward her remarks, the outburst, given the history of the Jewish

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people, it is totally unacceptable. She has apologised and says she

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understands the harm and the hurt that has been done as a result of

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these remarks. Newsnight has learned that Labour is now working on a

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proactive package on anti-Semitism, including news new ways for Jewish

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Mahmut Ozen become more actively involved in the party. That might be

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easier said than done. One backbench Labour MP has told the programme

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that they are worried that a tsunami of anti-Semitism has been joined up

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-- has joined up, emboldened by Jeremy Corbyn's past associations

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with people who are anti-Semitic and critical of Israel.

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A lot of questions are being asked about Labour, and there is a debate

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among those in the Jewish community as to how serious it is.

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I'm joined by two prominent members of that community now.

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From Tel Aviv, Lord Levy, the Labour Peer and former Chief

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and in the studio with me, Rabbi and Baroness Julia Neuberger.

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Does Labour have a problem with anti-Semitism? Yes, in a word, that

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is not to say that other parties have not had problems, or that it is

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not elsewhere, but Labour has a particular problem, a particular

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problem at the moment, this Naz Shah case illustrates that, and more than

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anything else, the Oxford University Labour club. You are a crossbench

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peer. You are not a member of Labour. I was a Lib Dem peer, I have

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been a crossbench peer the five-year is, I was brought up in the Labour

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Party, true, my parents would be turning in their graves. Lord Levy,

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how serious a problem do you think that Labour has in this regard?

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Well, unfortunately, I have to say that I think that it is a serious

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problem. The lack of sensitivity when a member of Parliament talks

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about transportation of the largest Jewish community in the world... I

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think it just shows such ignorance. The comments, the Twitter posts that

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she made an Adolf Hitler... I begin to scratch my head in despair as to

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how people like this can enter our Parliament with such a lack of

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knowledge, discretion, such a lack of sensitivity. Julia just said that

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she does not believe that this is restricted to the Labour Party comic

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yes, the Labour Party is coming under a microscope at the moment. --

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Julia just said she did not believe that this is restricted to the

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Labour Party, yes. Every party needs to put anti-Semitism on their agenda

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and make sure that it is eradicated, that there is zero tolerance of

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anti-Semitism right across the political spectrum. I'm not quite

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clear, are you saying Labour has a worse problem than other parties or

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that all parties are equally bad in this regard? You heard what Julia

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had said, when she was a member of the Liberal Democrats, she knows

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what some of the members of that party have said. When I went into

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the House of Lords, as I have said before, I was told that those on the

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Tory benches said, who is the Jewish lad brought into the house now?

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There are definite issues of anti-Semitism across the political

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spectrum. At this moment in time, I have to say it seems more prominent

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within the Labour Party, and it is absolutely crucial that the

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leadership of the party stamp this out. And for once and for all, and

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our system needs to deal with it, because there can be criticism of

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the state of Israel but anti-Semitism, using the word

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Zionist as another form of anti-Semitism, frankly that can no

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longer be tolerated. How specific do you think it is to Labour? Do you

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agree with Lord Levy? At the moment it is much more specific to Labour,

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it is attached to the Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader, and therefore,

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old... For those of us old enough to remember Militant, it existed there,

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it is an issue with the hard left and in particular a criticism of

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Israel, and I suspect that peoples whose views would not have been

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acceptable in the Labour Party have rejoined or they have joined, and I

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think we have seen that. In a way it is a problem of the left, what you

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might call the hard left, they have a much harder line on Israel, the

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state of Israel, and Palestine. Specifically, yes, at the moment,

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that is where it comes, also seems to be the case with student

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politics, and this awful use of... Have you seen this?... The use of

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zio zio as a term of abuse, to Jewish students. It is easy to band

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about these claims. You just disagree with them, easy insult,

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does that happen? Of course, and it has happened on many occasions, I

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ought to lay on the line, this is the first time I have gone seriously

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public saying that there is a real problem of anti-Semitism, I have

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often said when people have cried anti-Semitism, you know what, I am

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not sure... But this time I'm absolutely sure, it is a concerted

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thing, lots of different places at the same time. Let's talk about how

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the party is dealing with it, Lord Levy, do you think that Jeremy

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Corbyn, the senior party officials, have taken this problem seriously

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enough, for your satisfaction? I think that it has taken too long for

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them to have taken this action. Somehow, they just at the beginning,

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there has been talk of a statement being changed. One statement made,

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and then action taken thereafter. I think that this must be dealt with

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in almost eight proactive way, so that members of the party, and

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anyone associated with the Labour Party coming out with this sort of

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anti-Semitic verbiage, it cannot be tolerated. But you know, Julia just

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said, about her position on anti-Semitism, I have always taken

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that you, I had my office in the Foreign Office, the Foreign Office,

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-- Foreign Commonwealth Office, for ten years, I never thought that

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there were anti-Semitic people in the cupboard, but we must look at

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this very carefully, with great respect to Julia, if we just look at

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the situation and say that it is from the left and not on the far

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right as well, then I think that is being somewhat naive. Every party

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needs to look very carefully in their cupboards as to what is going

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on on anti-Semitism at the moment. You know, it is very difficult...

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For a very small community in our country. We need to work closely

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with the Muslim community, we need to work closely with all

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communities, there needs to be an understanding of what our

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differences are, there needs to be an understanding of what is going on

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in the Middle East. There needs to be an education process as to what

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is happening. I think that is crucial. Thank you very much. Last

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one, there will be people watching, they say that this gets used as a

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cover to close down discussion, legitimate discussion, about the

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state of Israel and its policies, how does Jeremy Corbyn, who feel

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strongly on that issue, how does he steer the line between eradicating

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anti-Semitism but opening the discussion to Israel? It has to be

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legitimate to criticise Israel, as it is possible to criticise any

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other country but look at the way language is used, when the word

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Zionist is used, instead of the word Jewish, and you began to talk about

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conspiracies, that is not about Israel, that is about Jewish people,

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that is when you have two pick it up and run with it. Quite a lot of

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criticism of Israel is also anti-Semitic, I must say, but there

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is a particular strand going on at the moment. -- have to. That is why

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I disagree with Michael, there is anti-Semitism on the right, in the

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middle, and on the left. This particular anti-Semitism that is

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going on at the moment is a conflation of using the word Zionist

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to mean Jewish, to begin talking about some kind of Zionist

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conspiracy, which is loyal, and in praise of Hitler... That really is

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very shocking! Naz Shah was not the only high

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profile suspension today. The chief constable

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of South Yorkshire Richard Crompton was cast aside by the Police

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and Crime Commissioner there in the wake of

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the Hillsborough inquest verdict. Because trust in the police

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force was fading, It came shortly before

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the commemoration in Huge crowds at St George's Square,

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it was an emotional occasion. When we were sitting in that court

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these past two tears and listening to the same lies to blame our fans,

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the system itself, the police force of South Yorkshire to be ashamed of

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themselves and hang their heads. it was perhaps important to be seen

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to act ahead of this. Now the police were

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still the subject of public anger at the fact

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that the Hillsborough inquest had taken two years, which was

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blamed on the police Andy Burnham made the point

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on our programme last night, and expanded on it

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in the commons today. Mr Speaker let me be clear, I don't

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blame the orderly police officers, the men and women who did their very

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best on that day and who today are out there keeping our streets safe.

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But I do blame their leadership and culture which seems rotten to the

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core. How much more evidence do we need before we act?

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South Yorkshire may have had more than its fair share of problems,

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but the police nationally have faced criticism after criticism -

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where do you start in listing all the problems, from Jean Charles

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de Menezes to the original hacking investigation to Operation Midland.

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I'm joined by the former Minister for policing,

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Damian Green, and from Liverpool by Elkan Abrahamson,

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lead solicitor for 20 of the families involved

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It's been quite a day, or two days for those families, how much

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difference do you think that the Chief Constable makes? Will this

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suspension solve the problems of South Yorkshire Police? I don't

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think it will, it's a welcome first step and we hope it will be followed

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not by scapegoating him but by examining his conduct whether it

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amounts to misconduct and what steps should be taken. But also by

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examining the culture of the force and considering if special measures

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should be taken to ensure South Yorkshire Police adopt a more

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ethical policy of conducting the way they do their business. At heart

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what do you think because of the problem is, is it a culture problem

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at the heart of the police in your view? I think there is a culture

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problem in any large organisation whether it be the police, the army

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or private companies. We see again and again the reluctance of people

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at the top these organisations to admit to their faults, whether those

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are criminal or otherwise. We also see again and again that those

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companies that do accept their responsibility when they do

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something wrong are the quickest to change the culture within their

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organisation. And encourage those lower down in the company to act

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ethically. I think that is the main problem with the police but as I

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say, not just the police. Damian Green, did you find when you were

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responsible for the police a particular resistance to recognising

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when they had got something wrong, trying instead to cover it up and be

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defensive? They were defensive but I agree that many other organisations

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are defensive as well and we should not forget that confidence in the

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police is quite high. Compare to other institutions. Is it? Yell yes.

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Clearly it is not in Liverpool for reasons which are terribly obvious

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but puttable do still have a high level of trust in the police. What

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has happened and one of the reasons the police are better than they used

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to be, you now have someone who can hold the police to account,

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introducing things like the College of policing to improve

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professionalism, all of that is good and make things better but I

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absolutely agree that one thing you can do, but in the long and much

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more deeply what you need to do is change the culture. But why is the

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culture so hard, so resistance to change in the police? It does seem

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very difficult to get mistakes properly analysed like they would in

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the aviation industry for example, how do you get that culture into the

:20:31.:20:37.

police? Some of it, we as citizens expect the police to do difficult

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and dangerous things every day and to get them to do that they need to

:20:41.:20:45.

develop a huge esprit de corps, the act collectively. At the margin that

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can go over into it is us against the world, we will defend each other

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whatever. Trying to create a culture of whistle-blowing in that kind of

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institution is very difficult. Elkan, some people have called for

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the disbanding of South Yorkshire Police and the police and crime

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commission said he did not know what that would mean because you cannot

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cause the police down in South Yorkshire. What do people mean when

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they say we should disband it and would that make sense as a solution

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to the culture problem you have spoken about? It would be possible

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in theory to merge two forces but whether that would be a solution or

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not is impossible to say at this stage. What I am asking the Home

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Secretary to consider is special measures which would require an

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examination as to whether there are special steps which need to be taken

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because there is not enough legitimacy responsibility at the

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top. I don't know if that is definitely the case or not but

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perhaps an enquiry by the Home Office would reveal that. And can I

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just pick up the point about the problem the police have with, to use

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the phrase esprit de corps, it's right that the more difficult and

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dangerous the job the more an organisation has two encourage its

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members to protect themselves but that should not become what may. We

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need people to understand the ethics that they should adopt wherever they

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are. Police forces have a code of ethics and have had for several

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years and it need to be at every level so people accept that

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responsibility. Last one for you Damian, to the police make more

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mistakes than they should? A large organisation will make a lot of

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mistakes, statistically... It is more than 100,000 people doing a

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very difficult job. It is just that a lot of what they do is so

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sensitive that when they make mistakes terrible things can happen,

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as happened there. I agree about the code of ethics, this is something

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you introduced a few years ago, you might have assumed there had always

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been a code of ethics but there hasn't been. Making that an

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instinctive part of the culture so that everyone in the police service

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lives and breathes a code of ethics, that is the long-term aim. Thank you

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both very much. We did ask to speak to both

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and to the South Yorkshire Police and Crime Commissioner

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Donald Trump has called himself the Republican

:23:20.:23:21.

And he is not being that presumptious in

:23:22.:23:26.

The bookies have put an 83% chance of him

:23:27.:23:31.

Now, while Mr Trump has been a phenomenal campaigner and a good

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laugh along the way, even his best friends would concede

:23:36.:23:37.

that he hasn't always looked Presidential.

:23:38.:23:40.

So today was a very big moment in his campaign,

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He gave a foreign policy speech without any of that

:23:43.:23:47.

"who'll pay for the wall?" rhetoric;

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it was his statement of what he calls an "America First"

:23:50.:23:52.

foreign policy, with lots of implications for us all.

:23:53.:23:54.

We'll discuss those shortly, but first Mark Urban looks

:23:55.:23:56.

We have all heard Donald Trump on the stump, uncompromising and at

:23:57.:24:15.

times outrageous. Total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the

:24:16.:24:20.

United States. I am going to build a wall and Mexico will pay for it.

:24:21.:24:27.

When was the last time anybody saw us feeding, let's say, China. We are

:24:28.:24:32.

going to have our borders nice and strong, we are going to build the

:24:33.:24:36.

wall. Would I approve water boarding? You bet your as I would. I

:24:37.:24:41.

would knock the hell out of Isis, you have to take out their families.

:24:42.:24:48.

When did we feed Japan? But with delegates priming up in one primary

:24:49.:24:54.

after another it was Jane Fonda gear change, from the contender talking

:24:55.:24:58.

to the Republican base to the nominee apparent addressing the

:24:59.:25:02.

wider American public. So today we got a detailed foreign policy

:25:03.:25:06.

speech, it was scripted unlike some of his off the calf campaign marks

:25:07.:25:12.

and the tone was softer than before as well. At the under lying message

:25:13.:25:21.

was the same, an assertion of American exceptionalism. My foreign

:25:22.:25:25.

policy will always put the interests of the American people and American

:25:26.:25:29.

security above all else. It has to be first. It has to be. He roundly

:25:30.:25:36.

attacked President Obama's Iran nuclear dear, what many think is his

:25:37.:25:41.

biggest foreign policy achievement. We have a president who dislikes our

:25:42.:25:46.

friends and bones to our enemies, something we have never seen before

:25:47.:25:50.

in the history of our country. He negotiated a disastrous deal with

:25:51.:25:53.

Iran and then we watched them ignore its terms even before the ink was

:25:54.:25:58.

dry will stop Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, cannot be

:25:59.:26:04.

allowed, remember that, cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

:26:05.:26:11.

Letting the militaries ball to rack and ruin, he promised to restore its

:26:12.:26:20.

relevance. There would be much more spending on defence and a warning to

:26:21.:26:24.

allies in Europe that scene is expected of them. Our allies must

:26:25.:26:29.

contribute towards their financial, political and human costs, they have

:26:30.:26:34.

to do it, of our tremendous security burden. But many of them are simply

:26:35.:26:39.

not doing so. The countries we are defending must pay for the cost its

:26:40.:26:44.

defence and if not the United States must be prepared to let these

:26:45.:26:48.

countries defend themselves. We have no choice. What is all this hardware

:26:49.:26:56.

for? Restoring American power and global onslaught against a radical

:26:57.:27:01.

Islam he said. Nato would be welcome he said to join in that effort and

:27:02.:27:06.

encountering migrants. But should steer wheel clear of going up

:27:07.:27:11.

against Russia as President Trump would be negotiating our resected

:27:12.:27:18.

inhalations with them as part of his vision for foreign policy. We will

:27:19.:27:22.

no longer surrender this country or its people to the false song of

:27:23.:27:28.

globalism. The nation state remains the true foundation for happiness

:27:29.:27:33.

and harmony. I am sceptical of international unions that tie us up

:27:34.:27:37.

and bring America down. Trump instils joy among

:27:38.:27:41.

some, strikes the fear And others simply say they don't

:27:42.:27:45.

know what he believes, Let's ask which is

:27:46.:27:48.

the right view of him.. I'm joined from Washington

:27:49.:27:52.

by Edward Luttwak, a historian and political scientist,

:27:53.:27:54.

and by David Frum, who was a speechwriter

:27:55.:27:55.

for George W Bush. Edouard, is there a Donald Trump

:27:56.:28:04.

that is not as crazy as some people say he is? The Donald Trump that

:28:05.:28:13.

exists exists in the United States of America. He talks about a wall on

:28:14.:28:18.

the border of Mexico and in fact under the Obama administration a lot

:28:19.:28:22.

of money has been spent on a fence along the Mexican border. He talks

:28:23.:28:27.

about not giving a Visa to people from Muslim countries, or elsewhere

:28:28.:28:35.

and under the Obama administration entering the United States for

:28:36.:28:37.

people holding passports from the Muslim countries, and recently with

:28:38.:28:44.

the restriction on the Visa waiver programme, British people who have

:28:45.:28:50.

travelled to Muslim countries are no longer Visa free. In other words

:28:51.:28:56.

they are caught between the existing Obama and the existing Donald Trump,

:28:57.:29:00.

the gap is far narrower than you might imagine. Look at what he says

:29:01.:29:06.

about immigration and so on, or Bama's record in the number of

:29:07.:29:13.

deportations and so it goes. Equally, in regard to getting the

:29:14.:29:17.

situation of course with spending and Nato is that Nato where only 2%

:29:18.:29:24.

criteria which is half the Cold War spending. Nobody is spending 2%, web

:29:25.:29:29.

hello, including Britain, yet they still pretend to set up the table

:29:30.:29:34.

and pronounce... We will come back to that. Let me put this point to

:29:35.:29:39.

David Frum, two day definitely he looked a little more serious and a

:29:40.:29:43.

bit more presidential and that was partly the decor but do you think

:29:44.:29:46.

there is a serious Donald Trump trying to get out of the comedy

:29:47.:29:50.

Donald Trump we have seen in the campaign?

:29:51.:29:53.

did not try very hard to make sense, Donald Trump began with one

:29:54.:30:01.

paragraph he said that we are going to drop allies, as allies who do not

:30:02.:30:08.

pay, and then in the next paragraph he complained that America buzz

:30:09.:30:13.

allies see the country as unreliable. Perhaps they see it as

:30:14.:30:16.

that because of the thing you said just one paragraph previous(!) the

:30:17.:30:23.

speech did not try to make sense, but there was something serious at

:30:24.:30:26.

work, something disquieting, politico Europe reported that in the

:30:27.:30:31.

front row of the talk, not a big talk, not a big room, Russian

:30:32.:30:35.

ambassador. We know that the Kremlin has made big attempted penetrate

:30:36.:30:41.

Democrats that all systems, the Front National in France, the

:30:42.:30:45.

national front in the UK, also persistent rumours of involvement

:30:46.:30:48.

with the Scottish Nationalist... We cannot go into any of that, because

:30:49.:30:52.

we do not know what the financing is but... The point is... Yes,

:30:53.:30:57.

something with Russia... A little bit more than a rapprochement with

:30:58.:31:03.

Russia, it is an open door, look at the advisers of Donald Trump, look

:31:04.:31:06.

at some of the most important people in his operation, this is beginning

:31:07.:31:10.

to look like something that a lot of French people, German people,

:31:11.:31:14.

British people would recognise as uncomfortable. Edward, on that

:31:15.:31:18.

specifically, a kind of warmer, reaching out to Vladimir Putin, good

:31:19.:31:27.

or bad? Again, maybe good, maybe terrible, but if you were to go and

:31:28.:31:34.

ask the normal foreign policy experts, the people in my line of

:31:35.:31:40.

business, talk with former senior ambassadors, at the highest level,

:31:41.:31:45.

all of them believe that the United States as to improve relations with

:31:46.:31:53.

Russia. There is talk about reviving an algorithm society, and because of

:31:54.:32:00.

the notion of hostility to Russia is only affected in the degree that you

:32:01.:32:05.

can actually stop Russia. -- Elbe River Society. If there was a

:32:06.:32:11.

willingness in Nato, among members, Italy, France, Britain, Germany, to

:32:12.:32:17.

send trips to the Ukraine, in the United States could be there and

:32:18.:32:19.

confront Russia, if you cannot confront Russia, because of the

:32:20.:32:25.

American position, or the Allied position, then you should improve

:32:26.:32:30.

relations with Moscow. There is a consensus, go to the Council for

:32:31.:32:34.

foreign relations, that is exactly what they say. Let me put that point

:32:35.:32:40.

to David, it sounds like Europe should be quite worried by Donald

:32:41.:32:45.

Trump, threatening Nato, obviously taking a different attitude towards

:32:46.:32:49.

Russia, is that the right leading of what we heard today? -- right

:32:50.:32:53.

reading. Europe should be worried not because of what Donald Trump is

:32:54.:32:56.

saying but Europe should be worried because the likeliest outcome of

:32:57.:33:00.

this Donald Trump candidacy and nomination, a historic collapse in

:33:01.:33:07.

Republican strength. We are looking at the high likelihood of a Clinton

:33:08.:33:13.

presidency, you will not find that uncomfortable, but major Democratic

:33:14.:33:16.

gains in the Senate and possibly the house as well, congressional

:33:17.:33:19.

Democrats are well to the left of where a Clinton presidency would be,

:33:20.:33:24.

from trade to giving support on the migration measures, that Britain

:33:25.:33:27.

desperately needs to take. You may find that there is a second order of

:33:28.:33:33.

the trump candidacy, that you are facing a United States less

:33:34.:33:35.

sympathetic and understanding to the problems of Europe than the historic

:33:36.:33:39.

norm, which has prevailed between the two continents. Inky very much

:33:40.:33:46.

indeed. -- thank you very much indeed.

:33:47.:33:48.

You don't need to be a psephologist to notice that politics

:33:49.:33:51.

Fights within big parties; smaller parties exerting huge influence.

:33:52.:33:55.

And huge regional and national variations.

:33:56.:33:56.

Scottish politics is in a very different place to that of England

:33:57.:33:59.

and Wales for example, we'll probably get more evidence

:34:00.:34:01.

of that in the Scottish election, a week tomorrow.

:34:02.:34:03.

Psephologist John Curtice has been struck by the changes

:34:04.:34:06.

VOICEOVER: The question that Labour MPs at Westminster will be asking

:34:07.:34:27.

themselves when they see the results of the local and devolved elections

:34:28.:34:31.

on May the 5th, what do they tell them about Labour's prospects for

:34:32.:34:35.

winning an election under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in 2020? In so

:34:36.:34:40.

doing, they are in danger of making a big mistake, the truth is, British

:34:41.:34:48.

politics is dead. No longer is electoral success confined to

:34:49.:35:02.

parties like Labour and the Conservatives, who fight elections

:35:03.:35:04.

on a Britain wide basis. Party support no longer necessarily moves

:35:05.:35:06.

in the same direction, across the country. The issues that mattered

:35:07.:35:08.

the most two voters have diverged. Scotland's links with British

:35:09.:35:11.

politics were already weakened, by the failure of the Conservatives

:35:12.:35:14.

north of the border to make any significant recovery from the slump

:35:15.:35:20.

in their support and representation back in 1997. Then in last year 's

:35:21.:35:25.

general election, Labour suffered a historic collapse in support. Now,

:35:26.:35:32.

the key test that Labour MPs say Jeremy Corbyn must pass is the

:35:33.:35:37.

restoration of Labour's dire position in Scotland, on May five.

:35:38.:35:43.

Things are going really well. There is now fundamental differences

:35:44.:35:47.

between elections in Scotland and those in England and Wales. The

:35:48.:35:55.

electoral scene in Scotland is now dominated by the SNP, a party that

:35:56.:35:58.

does not even contest elections south of the border. The

:35:59.:36:05.

Nationalists provide virtually all of Scotland's MPs at Westminster,

:36:06.:36:08.

which means Labour and the Conservatives are effectively only

:36:09.:36:16.

English and Welsh parties. So, the outcome in last year 's general

:36:17.:36:18.

election in Scotland was in truth completely different from that in

:36:19.:36:25.

England and Wales, in Scotland, the Labour vote collapsed, whereas

:36:26.:36:30.

Labour actually gained some ground in England and Wales. Equally, the

:36:31.:36:35.

Conservative vote in Scotland, already unbelievably low, fell yet

:36:36.:36:39.

further, to a new record low, whereas in England and Wales, again,

:36:40.:36:44.

the party was making progress. Here is very clear evidence that the

:36:45.:36:47.

fortunes of Labour, the fortunes of the Conservatives, can be very

:36:48.:36:52.

different in Scotland from what they are in either England or Wales, the

:36:53.:36:56.

only similarity that Scotland now enjoys with England and Wales is the

:36:57.:37:01.

rather sad fate of the Liberal Democrats, now a very small party in

:37:02.:37:05.

Scotland, much as is true in England and Wales. The issue that now above

:37:06.:37:10.

all divides voters in Scotland is the independence question, an issue

:37:11.:37:15.

that is peripheral to voters in England and Wales. If we look at

:37:16.:37:20.

what happened in last year 's general election, around 85 to 90%

:37:21.:37:26.

of those people who had voted yes to independence in September 2014 in

:37:27.:37:30.

the referendum held then went on to reaffirm their faith by voting for

:37:31.:37:37.

the SNP, whereas only around 15 to 20% of those that voted no to

:37:38.:37:40.

independence were willing to buck to the Nationalists. This is a

:37:41.:37:47.

constitutional question, that is now at the heart of the Scottish

:37:48.:37:49.

electoral politics, whereas in England and Wales, it hardly figures

:37:50.:37:51.

at all. The polls in Scotland have not moved

:37:52.:38:00.

forward it is, indeed not four months. As a result, it looks as

:38:01.:38:05.

though Labour could do at least as badly on May the 5th as they did 12

:38:06.:38:15.

months ago. The truth is, for voters in Scotland, it is independence that

:38:16.:38:19.

matters. Not what they think of Jeremy Corbyn.

:38:20.:38:24.

STUDIO: John Curtice's view of our non-national politics.

:38:25.:38:26.

Let's stay in Scotland; the leader of the Labour party there has

:38:27.:38:29.

all the challenges set out in John's piece.

:38:30.:38:32.

The rug pulled from under the party by the SNP.

:38:33.:38:35.

The election will be a test for Kezia Dugdale, who has

:38:36.:38:37.

been in charge of Labour there since last summer.

:38:38.:38:40.

Some have speculated on whether the party could even

:38:41.:38:42.

Isn't it the case that the referendum changed the way that

:38:43.:38:54.

elections are framed in Scotland, and the key divined is either

:38:55.:39:00.

whether you are for independence or the union? The trouble was that

:39:01.:39:04.

Labour did not see this coming. That is fundamentally correct, what you

:39:05.:39:08.

have said, Scottish politics has completely changed since the

:39:09.:39:10.

referendum, the Labour Party must change with it, that is what I have

:39:11.:39:15.

done as the labour of the Scottish Labour Party, tried to renew a sense

:39:16.:39:19.

of who we are and what we stand for, what I'm trying to do, it is

:39:20.:39:23.

important and quite brave, to appeal to people who voted both yes and no,

:39:24.:39:28.

because I believe it is a dark day, dark future for Scotland, if how we

:39:29.:39:33.

vote in the general election, even for your local councillor, is

:39:34.:39:37.

defined by what you did on one day in September in 2014. You can say

:39:38.:39:42.

that the way that people voted for years and years and years, they

:39:43.:39:46.

voted time and again for Labour. The problem is, Labour did not

:39:47.:39:49.

understand over the years, Labour talked about evolution killing

:39:50.:39:57.

nationalism stone dead, arrogant and lazy, and it was not true. That was

:39:58.:40:03.

one voice, George Robertson, he make the case, the rest of the Labour

:40:04.:40:05.

Party was making the case for devolution, more power from London

:40:06.:40:13.

to Edinburgh. Ends must change. We are talking about my leadership, the

:40:14.:40:17.

time that I have been in charge, I am responding to the worst general

:40:18.:40:20.

election results almost possible in the Scottish election last year,

:40:21.:40:24.

going from 41 MPs down to one MP. But what we have now is eight

:40:25.:40:28.

prospectus for change, policy platform which is about ending

:40:29.:40:34.

austerity. Is it about realism, one political commentator at the weekend

:40:35.:40:39.

talked about she said that she is so relentlessly upbeat it is troubling,

:40:40.:40:45.

that you are like a puppy that does not see the bus coming, you are not

:40:46.:40:49.

going to win. What drives me out of my bed every day is tackling poverty

:40:50.:40:53.

and inequality, and opposition I can deliver some of that, but I can

:40:54.:40:57.

transform that country from a position of power. I will not give

:40:58.:41:01.

that up. You are set to lose 20 seats, by the latest polls, the

:41:02.:41:06.

lowest standing since devolution, that would be, surely it is going to

:41:07.:41:10.

take a lot more than just the same old same old, to win a Scottish

:41:11.:41:14.

electorate, which in the moment has got its head. I do not accept those

:41:15.:41:20.

numbers, when they run the numbers, they produce different results, I

:41:21.:41:24.

intend to campaign with every last breath over this next week or so to

:41:25.:41:27.

make the case for why people should vote Labour. You say same old same

:41:28.:41:33.

old, this election is very different, it is the Labour Party,

:41:34.:41:37.

the only party that is able to say that we have an anti-steroid to

:41:38.:41:41.

pledge. Our tax proposals, raising enough revenue to stop the cuts,

:41:42.:41:45.

one-year ago, Nicola Sturgeon was the one saying that she was the

:41:46.:41:48.

anti-austerities champion, who was going to tax the rich, now she's

:41:49.:41:52.

supports austerity and refuses to tax it. The problem with the tax

:41:53.:41:57.

plans, they are not about taxing the rich, it is a penny in income tax

:41:58.:42:02.

which hits taxpayers over 20,000 a year, last time that was put

:42:03.:42:07.

forward, John Smith, 1993, Shadow Chancellor, it is suggested that is

:42:08.:42:11.

what lost the election. We live in different time, people in Scotland

:42:12.:42:13.

desperately wants to stop the cuts and end austerity, we have a

:42:14.:42:18.

platform for that. When you look at the opinion polls you have just

:42:19.:42:20.

cited, three show overwhelming support for our tax proposals, the

:42:21.:42:27.

BBC's own poll, the number one most popular policy was the 50p tax, and

:42:28.:42:32.

then income tax. It is Labour plans to stop the cuts which are proving

:42:33.:42:36.

most popular in this election.

:42:37.:42:39.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Topics include Labour and anti-semitism, the future of South Yorkshire Police, public perceptions of Donald Trump and the potential for a Labour comeback in Scotland.


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