04/05/2016 Newsnight


Donald Trump seals the deal. Can he be President? What is the European Dream? Child refugees. The man jailed for talking to ISIS. With Evan Davis.

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Will Republican nominee Trump now become the most


Tonight as Ted Cruz and John Kasich throw in the towel, we'll ask


which way the unpredictable Donald Trump will turn now.


Can he unify a divided Republican Party?


Also tonight: Gabriel is still in search of the European dream.


Here's what Brussels values mean to the Hungarian Prime Minister.


The car salesman from Delaware who became a do-it-yourself negotiator


with Isis tells us his story. This didn't happen over


a two-week period. I worked my way up to that point due


to the relationships I have and I was very comfortable


in being the middleman, Donald Trump is now at about a 30%


chance of being US president, There are no other Republicans


in the running, the rivals to Trump Who knows, maybe something strange


could turn up and stop him, but work on the assumption


he is the Republican candidate. Note, this is yet another shock


to the professional pundits and pollsters, who didn't see


it coming last year. It is also no less than a crisis


for American conservatism, having flirted with the mainstream


to the neo-cons then to the Tea Party, it has now


led by a man with erratic tastes. He has not been very conservative


until recently and has made huge donations


to the Democrats over the years, Mr Trump has to unite his party


and beat Hilary in November. Here's Katie Razzall


with her assessment. They wanted him fired, but instead


the Apprentice star is hired. I'm Donald Trump and I'm always


on the lookout for talented people. I'm looking for someone


who is a natural leader. When it comes to a natural leader


for America, The Donald He'll be the first presidential


nominee in 60 years with no Trump now claims he'll unify


the party, having previously given the impression unity wasn't high


on his priority list. I see him starting to sweat,


like I have never seen I've never seen anybody that lied


as much as Ted Cruz did. He's a war hero because


he was captured. He failed miserably


and it was an embarrassment to everybody including


the Republican Party. It's been clear many Republicans


wanted anyone but Trump, and in this most divisive


of contests they didn't His promises are as worthless


as a degree from Trump University. Donald Trump likes to sue people,


he should sue whoever He doesn't know the difference


between truth and lies. He lies practically every word that


comes out of his mouth. That last comment was only


yesterday, as Ted Cruz faced Pretty hard to come back


from, you'd imagine. So can the GOP really unite


behind their presidential nominee? The full Republican Party is not


going to unite behind Donald Trump. You have prominent people who said


outright there is no way I'm ever going to support Donald Trump,


he's not a Republican, I think closer to the general


election Donald Trump will pull in some Republicans who might have


strayed away for a while. He's going to try to be more


moderate, he's going to lean He's going to try to convince people


that a lot of his rhetoric before was just for show and that it wasn't


actually policy that he plans to implement, but I think it's


going to be hard for him to backtrack, especially


on his offensive comments. The latest polling pitting Trump


and Clinton head-to-head shows On the individual issues,


she beats him comfortably in a host of key areas


including foreign policy. Education, he said he wants to cut


or eliminate the Education And health care, he wants


to repeal Obamacare. Clinton does, however,


trail Trump on the economy, the issue voters ranked


most important of all. He's tapped into voters'


frustrations about the economy with big promises


to make the country richer. His rhetoric on Muslims and Mexicans


may have appealed to some of the predominantly white


Republican primary goers, but analysts suggest he'll need two


thirds of white voters to pick him in November, a feat reached


only by Ronald Reagan, I think anyone who is predicting


that he's going to tone it down does not really know the nature of Donald


Trump. He is going to say what he wants


to say, when he wants to say it. He's a completely unpredictable,


from-the-gut personality. And I think that's how


he is as a politician. They've been measuring how unpopular


presidential nominees are at this 20% of people said they felt


unfavourably towards Ronald Reagan A decade later, only about 12%


of people disliked Bill Clinton. Other nominees have hovered


between four and just Hillary Clinton is the most


unpopular candidate on either side, ever, except, that is,


for Donald Trump. But if we've learned anything over


these past few months, it's that Donald Trump should never


be underestimated, and that in this contest you never quite know


what will happen next. Joining me now from America


is Jason Meister, chair of the Trump campaign in New York and Max Boot,


who worked as a senior to one of Trump's rivals,


Marco Rubio. Are you going to vote for Donald


Trump? Pretty much the last thing in the world I never going to do is to


vote for Donald Trump, no way, know-how, not going to happen. OK!


You aren't wavering on that, you are quite certain you aren't going to


vote for him. You will vote for Clinton, presumably? I would vote


for a Conservative third-party candidate or Hillary Clinton. I


regard Donald Trump as an ignorant demagogue who is one of the most


dangerous candidates to run for the presidency and least qualified. He's


the last person we should put in the Oval Office in charge of the most


powerful military in the world. He has shown that he doesn't understand


the basics of policy, he is xenophobic, he is guilty of sexist


comments, he doesn't have any real policy plans that can be achieved,


he wants to blow up our oldest alliances, he would be an


unmitigated disaster and there is no way I would consider voting for him.


Is there a problem perhaps that it is your friends who are saying this


about Donald Trump? How is this going to work? It's going to work


and we are going to get the never Trump people to come around, they


will do a complete 180. Donald Trump just one beating 17 well-qualified


Republican candidates -- just won. I think the challenge is behind us. We


have a general election facing a dynastic, a career politician,


Hillary Clinton, suffering against a committed socialist from Vermont, a


74-year-old committed socialist from Vermont. So the alternative I'm


afraid is Hillary Clinton and Conservatives are going to rally


around him. I'm sick and tired of hearing whether he will be


presidential, he isn't Conservative. He knows how to create jobs, he's a


guy who understands that you need to bring the corporate tax rate down,


we need get government off our backs. We have come off eight years


of President Obama, we have 10% real unemployment, we have the lowest


Labour participation rate in 40 years and the economy is the most


important issue. The next important issue is to deal with Isis and


homeland security. I think we need an outsider, a guy who has guts, who


speaks to the American people, not at the American people and that's


what Trump does. How big a strand of opinion in the ber publican party


and the Republican base, how big a strand you think you represent? --


the Republican party. You say you will not be won over, what's your


assessment of how many can and cannot be won over? We'll find out,


in the latest poll by CNN, which showed Hillary ahead of Trump by


double digits also showed that among those with... He was seen as


unfavourable by 30% of Conservatives, so there is no


question that there are many Republicans who will come around in


the end simply because they fear Hillary Clinton but I certainly


won't and I think a substantial number of die-hard Republicans won't


stop your other guest makes it seem that candidate is a normal -- that


Trump is a normal candidate with a plan to revive the economy. Let's


not forget that he was to ban all Muslims from the country, he was to


send the police into American homes to round up undocumented immigrants,


he wants to destroy my two and pull our troops out of South Korea and


Japan, he was to make nice with that Amir Putin, who was to start trade


wars with China and Mexico, two of our longest trading partners -- with


Vladimir Putin. He would make us it is lot less secure. -- he would make


us a lot less secure. They are talking point is that we've all


heard before, it's the media that's been attacking him. He has been


attacked by both establishments, Republican and Democrat. He has led


every opinion poll, he has beaten every candidate since he announced


his presidency and opponents still don't get it because he is speaking


to the American people and the American people are ready for


change, sick and tired of career politicians. I know what happens in


these things, everyone rallies around the candidate, that's the


normal form. They insult each other in the campaign and then they rally


around. It feels that the insults have been so vehement over the last


weeks, Ted Cruz calling him a pathological liar, completely


amoral, narcissist, Ted Cruz cannot now stand up and look at the


American people and say that they were just joshing and that people


should vote for Donald Trump? I think they can and you are going to


see not just Republicans rallying around Donald Trump, you are going


to see a tremendous amount of Democrats, people I call Trumpocrats


rallying around Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton has significant


weaknesses. We need an outsider to shake things up and Hillary Clinton


is everything but an outsider, she is a dynastic politician. Her


husband was a president. In my mind she is the Jeb Bush of the Democrat


party. We beat him pretty handily very early on. Ted Cruz made it as


far as he did because he was the most outsider as you get from the


establishment. A quick one for you, Max. Do you see this as a crisis for


Conservative? There were many Conservative choices on offer and


none of them really seems to appeal very substantially? -- conservatism.


It is a crisis for the Republican party, it's an open question whether


it will survive Donald Trump. We just don't know because he has


hijacked the party. He only signed up as a Republican in 2012, he isn't


the Medley Conservative, he is a populist demagogue -- he isn't


remotely Conservative. 40% of Republican primary voters supported


him, 10 million people, but in a general election, 130 million people


are going to vote. It's funny that the Trump spokesman says we have to


listen to the polls numbers, he has been number one in the primary


hulls, but he is behind by double digit amounts in the general


election polls. He has high unfavourable numbers. Has he brought


millions of new voters into the party? He may have brought in some


voters but he is driving others out. We have to leave it there. Thank you


for joining us. Now, back to Europe,


and for the second film in our series looking at the EU


from the perspective If you saw last night,


you'll know they had a dream of a united Europe


and Gabriel Gatehouse has been touring the continent,


assessing how much of that To some extent, those post-war


visionaries had hoped that our attachment to the idea


of the nation state might fade, and the free movement of people


around the continent would help But Europe has changed,


the EU is much larger than envisaged, and as Gabriel


finds, the nation state has proved Out of the ruins of war


there rose a vision. What were the aims of


the EU's founding Fathers? Last night we examined


ever closer union. Tonight we are looking


at freedom of movement. We are asking, what's become


of the European dream? Apart from a few road signs there's


nothing here to tell you that I've just walked


across an international frontier. And not just any old frontier,


because it's not so very long ago Stretching all the way from


the Baltic to the Mediterranean. A line of barbed wire dividing


Europe into binary opposites. And this, right here,


is the spot where the fence On Hungary's border with Austria,


thousands gathered to protest. Inside the Soviet bloc,


the pressure was building. A group of East Germans made


a dash for the fence. 27 years ago this man stood


between them and the West. Arpad Bella was in command


of the Hungarian His orders were to protect this


crossing by force if necessary. He now faced the most momentous


decision of his life, one that could help change


the course of European history. And so they set off


a chain of events. Three months later the fall


of the Berlin Wall. The biggest expansion


of the European project Now they could move freely


across the continent. Having played his part in tearing


down the Iron Curtain, Arpad now believes that Europe


should again be building fences. So what's happened to the dream


of a Europe without borders? What happened to de facto


solidarity? In the former Communist states,


EU accession has meant freedom For Andras Lovas, a doctor


in the Hungarian town of Szeged, it has meant the freedom to move


and work throughout the union. For me the European Union is a great


thing because I am free to move. It was really easy to move


to the UK when I went It was free to move,


free to cross the border. But across Eastern Europe,


millions of people are moving west for work, and unlike Andras,


many don't come back. Bad for my country because more


and more of my friends More and more of my friends leave


the country, not just to the UK, In Szeged a nurse in a care home


earns one sixth of what they When it comes to prosperity the EU


has failed to bridge the old gulf The young and the capable are often


the first to leave. The Hungarian health care


system is under strain. We have an estimation that since


Hungary joined the European Union, probably or approximately 5000


medical doctors already There's a deeper sense


of unease with Europe, here. An unease that was thrown


into sharp relief last summer. Europe's failure to forge a common


response boiled over at the train station in Budapest after Germany


had unilaterally declared itself And so began the mass movement


of people across an unwillingness When the Iron Curtain crumbled,


people thought they'd said But when Brussels talks


about mandatory quotas for refugees, many see that as the imposition


of a liberal worldview. Hungary was the first


to close its borders. Freedom of movement is being trumped


by concerns over cultural identity. The Hungarian Prime Minister has


taken these ideas from the fringes For him and his supporters,


the biggest threat to their European identity is the European Union


itself. There is a growing dissident


movement in European politics. One which rejects ever closer union


in favour of a strong nation state. Viktor Orban calls it


illiberal democracy. His spokesman thinks liberalism has


become an oppressive ideology. Liberalism originally was giving


place and space for open, What we see today, that in the name


of liberalism, apart from monopolising a couple


of issues and themes, there's also a restriction


on what and how shall We believe that in most


countries around Europe there is maybe a silent


but growing majority that recognise what's going on at the European


level is maybe against the very nature of the continent,


of the culture we are living in. The freedom to travel,


investment in infrastructure, billions of euros from the common


European pot, somehow all of this has failed to coalesce


into a sense of common purpose. And the divisions over Europe's


borders are opening up Fissures that are ripe


for exploitation. This is the Paks


nuclear power plant. Last year Russia agreed to lend


Hungary billions of euros Viktor Orban, an admirer


of Vladimir Putin, has simultaneously oppose the EU


sanctions against Russia. Including Zoltan Illes,


who was a minister in Orban's government when the secretive


deal was announced. Russia was definitely buying


influence in Hungary, and also from a Russian perspective


in the whole of Europe. Spending 13 or 14 billion euros


in Hungary developing, building up the nuclear facility,


power station, for decades Russia will be involved in energy policies


of this country as well as Europe. On foreign policy, on border


control, on that de facto solidarity, Europe does not


speak with one voice. Last night we met one of the EU's


founding fathers, Georges Berthoin. In so many fields he believes Europe


has not gone far enough. All governments wanted


to remain halfway. They wanted a bit of Europe,


not too much. All right, when you remain halfway,


you have the worst The fall of the Berlin Wall


once looked like the The historical inevitability


of ever closer union. What 1989 did was it


opened Europe up. It gave the peoples of East and West


freedom of movement, one of the cornerstones


of the European dream. What the migration crisis has done


is it's highlighted another aspect, and that is,


if you abolish your national borders you also sacrifice part


of your sovereignty. And it turns out that there's


huge resistance to that. Not just here in Hungary,


but across the continent. And so, more than a quarter-century


after they tore down the Iron Curtain, they are putting


fences back up again. In Hungary and Poland,


in Slovakia and Austria, even in Germany and France,


the political momentum is shifting towards those who reject the dream


of Europe as common space. There are others for whom that idea


still exerts an irresistible draw. It is an irony that they are often


the ones on the other This is perhaps the biggest


crisis of legitimacy Tomorrow night, the economic


and political imbalance at the heart Can democratic sovereignty


survive monetary union? Gabriel Gatehouse, and part three


of that series will be tomorrow. Free movement in the EU


is of course, not automatically extended to migrants,


or non-EU citizens. Among the many on the continent are


thousands of unaccompanied children. The government has controversially


resisted taking a share of those children to settle,


but it did make a u-turn on that today, saying it would take


an unspecified number. Nick Watt, our political editor


is with me. What made them do that? They did a


raw assessment of the numbers and the numbers were not good. When you


put together labour opposition, Liberal Democrat opposition, SNP


opposition, at most significantly a significant body of Conservative


MPs, Prime Minister looked at the numbers and said, we better beat a


hasty retreat. Otherwise there would have been parliamentary ping-pong


with the bill going between the two chambers of parliament. And it was


under the cover of the anti-Semitism row. Did they themselves think,


we've just lost the argument on this? We lost the case and we should


withdraw with dignity? The Prime Minister is not going to want to


make that he lost an argument but there is one area he has abandoned


the defining feature of his response to this crisis which was that the UK


would not take refugees from continental Europe, but only from


camps in the region, because he would not want to encourage people


to cross the Mediterranean. One area where they say they are wrong firm


ground, they say they wanted to avoid the mistake Angela Merkel


made, to say that the borders for Germany were open. They have come up


with a cut-off which they say should avoid the problems.


Well, joining me now to discuss this is the MEP Stephen Woolfe,


Ukip's frontbench spokesperson on migration, and Heidi Allen,


Conservative MP for South Cambridgeshire who had said


she was prepared to vote against the government before


David Cameron's policy u-turn earlier today.


You have been welcoming all over the place today, the policy. Do you know


what the policy is, how many are we talking about? It is being firmed up


as we speak. The clear message from the Immigration Minister James


Brokenshire I is that as soon as we are out of the local election


tomorrow he is going to write to the local authorities asking what they


can take. Last year, we resettled about 3000 children in this country.


He will be talking in those terms, that's what we did last year, look


for those numbers this year. Last year they were taken from camps


around Syria. Some of them. The question is, if we take some from


continental Europe, are we going to take viewer from the camps? The same


number in total, but just switching? No, this is just in addition. Are


you sure, more than last year? If you look at the legislation, the


amendment we are accepting, we talk about the original 20,000 scheme,


the 3000 announced a fortnight ago and this is in addition. How many


are you expecting to be Syrian, and how many from other parts of the


world? To be honest I don't think the analysis has been done, nor is


it likely because the government policy is to work with the experts


on the ground, Save the Children, UNHCR, and take guidance from them.


Children at risk who are the most honourable. You aren't -- the most


vulnerable. You would rather the government stuck to the original


line? Yes, we need to ensure that the people traffickers who are


making billions out of this, and everyone knows that they are, we


must ensure that they are not using the children as a weapon in some


ways. If you have the children in the camps, where they are well


looked after by the same government agencies that Heidi has talked


about, you can safely assure that they are looked after, we can make


sure that the asylum process are looked after there. It is difficult


to make sure when they come into the UK. Yes, there will be 3000 children


coming over who are suffering in the camps at the moment, but there are


100,000 children in the United Kingdom tonight who will be living


in homeless accommodation, bed-and-breakfast, hotels and they


will feel that they are being put to the back of the queue. Can I ask you


what you would expect to happen to those children who are already in


Europe, who are if you like and accompanied, lonely here, what would


you expect to happen to them? Would you expect them all to be taken by


France? You say they will go through the procedure but I'm not sure what


happens at the end. We are not sure, maybe Heidi can tell us what's going


to happen to the 3000 children currently in the camps and are


expected to come to the UK. Clearly there is a responsibility to France


and Italy and the other countries where these children are to abide by


the same rules that we are abiding by, the UN rules on children and


human rights, it is to make sure they put their hands in their


pockets and look after them too. There seems to be a shifting of the


policy from them that they want to put them in camps and ignore them,


why are they being ignored when they have facilities to look after them


in France, Italy and the other countries in Europe? This is a point


the Prime Minister made. People made the point that it was like the


candour transport, helping Jewish children before the Second World War


-- the Kinder transport. But it isn't quite like that. Yes, you


think it is all Europe, it must be safe. I have visited Calais and


Lesbos, as many MPs have, and there is anything but safety there.


Economically they are on their knees, places like Greece, not in a


state to do this and thousands of people coming every day. It's chaos,


they can't cope and there is some pretty nasty stuff happening to


children who aren't safeguarded, no one is protecting them which is why


I feel we have a responsibility, as every European country has, to work


through this and identify the children that each of us can take.


Wouldn't it be selfish for the British to say that we have a


collective problem, people have arrived here, we should all do our


bit rather than just say, France, you have to deal with them all, or


Italy and Greece, it's your problem because they landed on your shores?


We've never said that we shouldn't be taking any children at all, we


have said that the 20,000 figure that the Prime Minister had put out


should be the figure that is kept in place. Those children should be


taken from the camps because it sends a strong message. It isn't


about selfishness either. What we are looking at, even in the


constituency that Heidi has, there will be 9000 children in East


Cambridgeshire who are without a home tonight. We are short of over


8000 foster carers, 8000 children in the foster system, without homes.


What we are saying, we are going to take 3000, it is going to cost us


100 million a year, but we will have problems housing our own. What I


would like to say to Heidi is, yes, bring in children but are you going


to have amendments to government policy that says we will double the


amount of money for councils to look after the existing children who are


homeless tonight? Are you going to put the half a billion that would


match that? But we put that, you have ten seconds, sorry. The great


British public, offering help, rallying as communities, maybe we


can learn something and bring our own children into the foster network


too. Thank you for joining us. Now each week on Newsnight


during this referendum campaign we've been trying to help


you make your decision on how to vote, by offering a little space


to some people who are not involved in the campaigns, to tell us


about their decision. Tonight, the Scottish billionaire


Tom Hunter gives us his On the one hand I'm


worried about sovereignty You know, pretty proud of what we're


doing here in Britain. And I wouldn't want to give too much


power away to some faceless In terms of my other worry,


if we left, I think I would be I'd be worried about London's


position as being financial I still think there's a long way


to go in this debate. I find it really confusing


when people of the same political party are ripping each other


to shreds with this argument. And it's hard to get to say


where are the facts? I think at this point in the debate


it's too close to call. I think always in these


debates it's quite boring And I think the Leave campaign have


got probably more charismatic speakers like Michael Gove and Boris


Johnson. They are quite entertaining


but frankly, if I want to be Can you imagine, in a quiet evening,


sitting at the computer, browsing social media and getting


involved in conversations Well from the US, comes


an intriguing story of a car salesman from Delaware,


Toby Lopez, who did that. But it got to a very serious point,


after meeting people he believed were Isis officials online,


he ended up trying to negotiate the release of US


hostage Kayla Mueller. In doing so he angered the FBI


and was arrested and locked up He's now been told he won't have


to stand trial, that all charges against him have been dropped,


and he's free to tell his story. I began by asking him how he got


involved in negotiating What got me involved in that was a


relationship that was developed over months, culminating in mean


negotiating for a United States hostage. To all of the people


criticising me, yeah, I agree, it's not what most people do. Because of


my relationships, the tyres I had within that organisation, they


wanted to use me to facilitate her release -- ties. In your opinion,


what happened to make them suddenly come out in some number and arrest


you, take you away, and effectively lock you up for 14 months? That's


what happens when you know as much as the United States government and


you have e-mails indicating them in the Kayla Mueller hostage


negotiation with me. I told the head of the FBI, the supervising agent I


was talking to, I told him that these gentlemen know who I am and


I've been dealing with them for six months now. You know who I am and


who I'm talking to. They said that they didn't want any B I funny


business and they said all I'm going to do by telling me to stand down


and negotiate with the same people, you are going to be exposed and you


will get her killed in the process -- any FBI funny business. It isn't


because of what I did, it's because of what I knew. Do you ever think


you got in way too deep for a car salesman from Delaware? I think I


was in way over my head and the beginning, but at the end, I knew


exactly what I was dealing with and I knew what I was doing. Like I


said, I had been involved with the FBI followed across -- for other


four 's. They are incarcerated joo and it was unpleasant because it was


partially jail and partially medically supervised -- for four 's.


-- they incarcerated you. What was in Caceres and like? I was put in


isolation -- what was incarceration like. I was in there for nearly six


months straight at the beginning and they moved me multiple times to


facilities, from Philadelphia to New York, to Oklahoma City. They moved


me so many times, and they cut my communications down to nothing and


there was no justification from them as to why I was put in isolation,


thrown in the hole for as long as I was stopped they tried to say that I


was delusional and making it up. That's the way for the United States


to discredit people. If I had told myself my own story without any


factual evidence to back it up I would say that I was delusional. The


United States government had this information but they didn't release


it to the government doctors because they wanted the finding that I was


delusional, to discredit me. They wanted the fact that, found


incompetent to stand trial, the government could hold me


indefinitely. We live in the United States, not Russia. Looking back at


what you were doing, do you think you are at least obsessed, that you


went too far? Can you see it from their point of view? Yeah, maybe. I


had a passion. Just like Kayla Mueller was passionate about going


over there and helping children in that region, she had a passion to do


that. Is she insane? No. Thank you for joining us.


Election day across the country tomorrow, Kirsty will be here


tomorrow evening. Until then, good night.


Slowly and surely, the nights are getting a bit less cold. A lovely


sunny start,


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