13/06/2016 Newsnight


13/06/2016

Newsnight is live in Orlando, as the world reacts, and in Scotland, which might be pivotal to the referendum vote.


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Across the western world shock at the murder of 49 people at the Pulse

:00:11.:00:23.

club in Orlando. In London vigils are being held for the dead and the

:00:24.:00:27.

wounded but how did one man killed so many? Tonight the key figures in

:00:28.:00:31.

American politics are reacting. We cannot continue to allow

:00:32.:00:35.

thousands upon thousands of people to pour into our country,

:00:36.:00:38.

many of whom have the same thought And with ten days to go to the key

:00:39.:00:53.

decision, drug macro is on the road. I am about as far away from London

:00:54.:00:59.

as you can be where local figures have their own views. We have

:01:00.:01:05.

brought our very own referendum road trip to Glasgow to you the

:01:06.:01:08.

passionate arguments driving the debate as it becomes increasingly

:01:09.:01:13.

clear that the Scottish vote may be pivotal.

:01:14.:01:24.

Good evening from Orlando, a city rocked to its core by the tragedy

:01:25.:01:33.

that left 49 dead and 53 injured in the Pulse club behind me, a city

:01:34.:01:37.

once synonymous with Disney World has been shattered by reality at its

:01:38.:01:41.

most devastating and painful, tonight new details have emerged as

:01:42.:01:46.

to how the gunman called 9/11 from the bottom of the club and pledged

:01:47.:01:52.

allegiance to the leader of Isis. He was known to the FBI, yet it seems

:01:53.:01:57.

able to buy firearms freely. President Obama says there is no

:01:58.:02:03.

evidence that the gunman was directed by so-called Islamic State

:02:04.:02:07.

but Donald Trump, this afternoon, said that if elected he would

:02:08.:02:10.

suspend immigration from areas of the world with a proven history of

:02:11.:02:14.

terrorism against the United States or their allies. We'll get into the

:02:15.:02:16.

politics in a minute. Gabriel Gatehouse joins me now.

:02:17.:02:26.

There was of course a huge element of, phobia in the choice of this

:02:27.:02:30.

vibrant gay nightclub in downtown Orlando. The question, to what

:02:31.:02:36.

extent was it terror or as you mentioned in your introduction

:02:37.:02:39.

directed by the group calling itself Islamic State. We know of the claim

:02:40.:02:44.

of membership in the 911 call, the question is, how much was it

:02:45.:02:49.

directed, the FBI director today says he believes he was almost

:02:50.:02:54.

certainly home - radicalised, here in the United States. He was born in

:02:55.:02:58.

the United States. These are some other things still being questioned.

:02:59.:03:03.

The other details we have had coming out today in forensics detail is

:03:04.:03:07.

what actually happened inside the club on the night itself. You will

:03:08.:03:11.

see some of pictures in the report that is just coming up you will find

:03:12.:03:13.

distressing. It is Latino night at Pulse,

:03:14.:03:16.

a buzzing gay nightclub in downtown By closing time, the dance

:03:17.:03:19.

floor was nearly full. At two minutes past 2am, Omar Mateen

:03:20.:03:38.

starts shooting into the crowd. An off-duty policeman working at the

:03:39.:03:44.

club exchanges fire with the gunman. Eddie Justice texts his mother from

:03:45.:03:49.

a bathroom inside the club. Mummy, I love you. In club, they shooting. At

:03:50.:03:56.

nine minutes past 2am the club posts on its Facebook page, everyone get

:03:57.:04:02.

out of Pulse club and keep running. Mr Garcia, a former DJ at the club,

:04:03.:04:07.

was out with a group of friends including Mercedes Florez. Once we

:04:08.:04:15.

knew this was real, everyone ducked to the floor. He was right next to

:04:16.:04:21.

me. I had blood all over my arms. It was actually from him. The shooting

:04:22.:04:31.

just continued and continued. As soon as it stopped, I kind of hurt

:04:32.:04:35.

him reloading, I got up and run to one of the back doors. Amanda

:04:36.:04:38.

records one final video on Snapchat. GUNFIRE

:04:39.:04:51.

She and her best friend, Mercedes, later confirmed dead. Now, Omar

:04:52.:04:56.

Mateen, armed with an assault rifle and handgun, begins to take

:04:57.:05:02.

hostages. He calls 911, pleading allegiance to Islamic State and

:05:03.:05:04.

makes a reference to the Boston Marathon bombings. 2:39am, still in

:05:05.:05:12.

the bathroom, Eddie Justice sends another message to his mother. His

:05:13.:05:19.

coming, I'm going to die. He too has since been confirmed as one of the

:05:20.:05:24.

dead. At five-minute spot 5am police and SWAT team members moving. They

:05:25.:05:28.

forced their way into the club with explosives and a battering ram. In

:05:29.:05:33.

11 of his as exchange gunfire with the shooter, 30 hostages rescued.

:05:34.:05:42.

5:48am, Orlando police to eat, we can confirm this as a mass casualty

:05:43.:05:47.

situation. -- Orlando police tweet. At 5:53am Lees confirmed that the

:05:48.:05:55.

shooter, Omar Mateen, is dead. -- police confirm this. 7am. As the

:05:56.:06:00.

authorities begin to search for answers, investigators inside the

:06:01.:06:04.

club the other mobile phones of victims ringing as family members

:06:05.:06:08.

desperate for news try to contact them. Police say is a specialist

:06:09.:06:11.

devices were found on the gunman and in his car. The Florida Department

:06:12.:06:17.

of Law enforcement special agent in charge calls the shooting an act of

:06:18.:06:23.

terrorism. Any time that we have potentially dozens of victims in any

:06:24.:06:27.

of our communities, I think we can qualify that as a terrorist

:06:28.:06:34.

activity. At 10:30am Law enforcement officials confirm that 49 people

:06:35.:06:42.

including the gunman are dead and 53 are injured. As America morning,

:06:43.:06:48.

Orlando adds its name to a growing rest, San Bernardino, Charleston,

:06:49.:06:54.

Sandy Hook, Virginia Tech, Columbine and more. But the mid and it at the

:06:55.:06:59.

Pulse club sets itself apart in scale and context -- but the murder

:07:00.:07:04.

unleashed there. Families and friends come to terms their personal

:07:05.:07:09.

lost, the deadliest shooting in this country's modern history has set of

:07:10.:07:14.

an explosive charge right across America's most divisive political

:07:15.:07:20.

fault lines. Now known as the biggest single mass shooting in

:07:21.:07:23.

modern American history, you heard from Gabriel Gatehouse.

:07:24.:07:26.

I'm joined by Pedro Julio Serrano, a gay rights activist and the first

:07:27.:07:29.

openly LGBT person to run for elective office in Puerto Rico.

:07:30.:07:32.

Now this is relevant, particularly, Pedro, because we know that nearly

:07:33.:07:40.

half of the people killed in the tragedy were of Puerto Rican

:07:41.:07:45.

descent. This must feel like a sore from all sides. Yes, in the 20 years

:07:46.:07:49.

I've been an activist I've never felt so much sorrow and so much

:07:50.:07:54.

pain. I knew some of the victims, I'm not family to them so I come and

:07:55.:07:57.

even imagine what they are going through. It's devastating. Some of

:07:58.:08:02.

them came to Orlando looking for a better life echoes of the crisis in

:08:03.:08:06.

Puerto Rico, they were fleeing the crisis that we have, and to be here

:08:07.:08:12.

in the hands of hate, it's uncomfortable. You had friends in

:08:13.:08:17.

the club? It could have been me in that club because I have been there,

:08:18.:08:22.

I am gay and buttery can, it comes close to me, I've had rifles similar

:08:23.:08:30.

to the one that could have ended my life, because they told me, we are

:08:31.:08:35.

going to kill you, fag and, we are going to terminate your life, and

:08:36.:08:40.

fortunately I fled and I'm alive but those 49 lives will never be again.

:08:41.:08:47.

It is a horrible tragedy. And it comes from every side. It is because

:08:48.:08:52.

they are that you know, they are LGBT, it is because of radical

:08:53.:08:57.

Islam, all of these things compounded into one another -- they

:08:58.:09:04.

are Puerto Rico. Sometimes I don't even have words. How do you find

:09:05.:09:10.

America's and the world's response to what has happened here? There is

:09:11.:09:14.

a lot of solidarity of course. I think that we will become a better

:09:15.:09:19.

society because of this but we cannot forget that this doesn't

:09:20.:09:22.

happen in a vacuum. We have leaders like Donald Trump and other

:09:23.:09:27.

religious and political leaders who are fundamentalists and have been

:09:28.:09:31.

inciting violence against the LGBT community for too long. And they are

:09:32.:09:35.

as responsible as the killer for this tragedy because when they

:09:36.:09:39.

inside violent against us they are giving permission to individuals

:09:40.:09:45.

like this can lead to attack us. I wonder how you interpreted some of

:09:46.:09:49.

the words from Donald Trump today? He sounded as if he was appealing to

:09:50.:09:54.

the gay vote, talking about the importance of the LGBT community,

:09:55.:09:58.

setting that very much a part of the minority to be protected. Did you

:09:59.:10:03.

feel reassured by that? I wish I could say on air what I really

:10:04.:10:08.

think! I'm just going to leave it out, hate cannot be combated with

:10:09.:10:12.

hate. They cannot fight hate with hate. We are not going to let this

:10:13.:10:18.

event is divided us. This is not a war against Islam. Islam is a

:10:19.:10:23.

religion of peace, and we have Muslim friends and people that we

:10:24.:10:27.

hold dear. And we are not going to let Donald Trump divide us. This is

:10:28.:10:32.

not going to be about a fight between Islam and the LGBT

:10:33.:10:37.

community. It's not a fight between Muslims and LGBT people. I think the

:10:38.:10:42.

answer to all of this love. Love well Trump, and I use the word Trump

:10:43.:10:47.

carefully, levelled from hate. We need to stop this. America needs to

:10:48.:10:51.

open its eyes because what the world is seeing is that they are letting

:10:52.:10:56.

this product of the tea party and all these radical right-wingers be

:10:57.:10:59.

the voice of America in this moment and they need to stop this. Pedro

:11:00.:11:07.

Julio Serrano, thank you, some heartfelt language there, you will

:11:08.:11:11.

fully understand the emotion that is in the city and the LGBT community

:11:12.:11:15.

tonight. This perfect storm of American crises, a sense of free gun

:11:16.:11:22.

laws and the possibility of Islamic radicalisation and a hate crime all

:11:23.:11:25.

in this one appalling crime. Gabriel Gatehouse

:11:26.:11:27.

is back with me now. It is not surprisingly the possibly,

:11:28.:11:36.

that, five months from an election, this has already got incredibly and

:11:37.:11:42.

heated to be political. This tragedy unites two of the most divisive

:11:43.:11:46.

issues in American politics. Number one gun control, number two Islamic

:11:47.:11:52.

terrorism. Often with these shootings which are about gun

:11:53.:11:55.

control and it dies away. No one needs reminding that we are in an

:11:56.:12:00.

election year. If you put these issues together it's not surprising

:12:01.:12:03.

that the candidates have talked about this. Remember Donald Trump in

:12:04.:12:08.

the aftermath of the Paris shootings last November. He came out with this

:12:09.:12:12.

statement calling for a temporary ban on the entry of Muslims into the

:12:13.:12:16.

America. A statement that became notorious in some quarters and was

:12:17.:12:21.

applauded and others. In the aftermath of this shooting he has

:12:22.:12:24.

not held back. We can hear some of what he said now.

:12:25.:12:27.

I will suspend immigration from areas of the world

:12:28.:12:29.

where there is a proven history of terrorism against

:12:30.:12:31.

the United States, Europe or our allies, until we fully

:12:32.:12:34.

We cannot continue to allow thousands upon thousands of people

:12:35.:12:42.

to pour into our country, many of whom have the same thought

:12:43.:12:51.

Many of the principles of radical Islam are incompatible with Western

:12:52.:12:56.

That was Donald Trump, we also heard from the Democratic candidate,

:12:57.:13:14.

Hillary Clinton, what did she say? The administration has for some

:13:15.:13:18.

days, in the run-up to this, been talking about what they say is a

:13:19.:13:22.

crazy situation where they can put American citizens on a no-fly list

:13:23.:13:26.

but cannot buy them from buying the kind of assault weapons that caused

:13:27.:13:30.

this carnage. So knows a prize that when Hillary Clinton spoke she

:13:31.:13:33.

emphasised that aspect of gun-control -- no surprise that when

:13:34.:13:39.

she spoke she emphasised that aspect of gun-control.

:13:40.:13:46.

Sadly, we do not have that clip. Produce a body said? Hillary Clinton

:13:47.:13:55.

basically said we must look at the means by which these attacks are

:13:56.:14:00.

carried out it is difficult to stop every single home grown, if that is

:14:01.:14:05.

the case, radicalised person from wanting to carry out an attack.

:14:06.:14:10.

Hillary Clinton was placing the emphasis on the material, the guns,

:14:11.:14:15.

that carry out these attacks. This election year is not like previous

:14:16.:14:20.

election years. Not like President Obama this is Mitt Romney or even

:14:21.:14:24.

versus John McCain. This puts a candidate from the establishment

:14:25.:14:28.

against a candidate who portrays himself as wanting to overturn the

:14:29.:14:32.

establishment. It is an incredibly feeble atmosphere here and events

:14:33.:14:36.

like this can push things off course. President Obama said the

:14:37.:14:40.

country was united in grief and in resolve. That may be so but very

:14:41.:14:44.

divided in the answers to this problem thank you. We can speak now

:14:45.:14:51.

to one of Durham Trump's foreign policy advisers, Waled Phares. Thank

:14:52.:14:53.

you for joining us. I wonder if you can clarify some of

:14:54.:15:05.

the comments from Donald Trump. He said he would suspend immigration

:15:06.:15:08.

from all countries with a proven history of terrorism against America

:15:09.:15:11.

or its allies. What does that entailed? That basically is a

:15:12.:15:17.

transformation of his initial statement made last year, 2015,

:15:18.:15:23.

about the so-called ban on Muslims. Now he is narrowing it to the

:15:24.:15:28.

countries where there have been jihadis. That is conditioned, if

:15:29.:15:34.

he's elected he's going to meet with the heads of agencies, leaders in

:15:35.:15:41.

Congress and in the Arab world to figure out how to determine who is a

:15:42.:15:45.

Jihadist and who isn't so he can apply this. He has said that he will

:15:46.:15:50.

suspend when he will have the capacity to make that

:15:51.:15:54.

differentiation between Jihadist and not. Of course many will say that it

:15:55.:16:03.

completely misses the point of a murderer, someone guilty of the

:16:04.:16:08.

deaths of 49 and wounding 53 others, who was born in New York and who is

:16:09.:16:15.

a Native American. Oh, absolutely, there are many jihadists in America,

:16:16.:16:19.

Great Britain, as you know, Belgium, France, who were born in those

:16:20.:16:23.

countries and had a passport. It isn't about being foreign and being

:16:24.:16:31.

non-foreign, it is about being a member of Salafi jihad is. The

:16:32.:16:34.

French and the Egyptians know it isn't about having a passport -- you

:16:35.:16:42.

had is. If you support the ideology of the movement, that should be

:16:43.:16:50.

addressed. -- jihadism. Then you will understand that the immigration

:16:51.:16:53.

question does not come into it as these people are in your country

:16:54.:16:57.

already. That is true, that is why Mr Trump is saying that firstly we

:16:58.:17:01.

must stop further penetration. He isn't saying that everybody coming

:17:02.:17:06.

to the United States, he was clear, we are a country of immigrants, we

:17:07.:17:10.

bring in immigrants but now the jihadists are using that to come in,

:17:11.:17:14.

so we are going to slow the flow, shut it down until we Figueroa at

:17:15.:17:18.

how we can make the distinction and then everybody who is a lawful

:17:19.:17:22.

immigrant will be welcomed -- until we figure out. There will be many

:17:23.:17:30.

watching I'm guessing who will say, each politician finds their own

:17:31.:17:35.

narrative to this and for Donald Trump, he just wants to reinforce

:17:36.:17:38.

the anti-Muslim narrative so he is making it all about anti-Muslim

:17:39.:17:43.

immigration. It is divisive and isn't going to solve any problems.

:17:44.:17:47.

He could be looking at gun crime, for example. Look, the agenda of

:17:48.:17:54.

those opposing Mr Trump, the Democratic party, the Obama

:17:55.:17:59.

administration, and of course the Muslim brotherhood and others are

:18:00.:18:04.

opposing him, they accuse him of being Islamophobic. There is nothing

:18:05.:18:08.

in his history, no books or articles, that show this. His

:18:09.:18:11.

companies have all kinds of Woolwich as groups and in his speech he said

:18:12.:18:18.

that he would work with countries such as the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and

:18:19.:18:22.

others. There is nothing Islamophobic about it, it is about

:18:23.:18:29.

national security. So do you think this is all just a petition to win

:18:30.:18:33.

an American vote from an Islamophobia within his voter base,

:18:34.:18:40.

then? He is basically attacking on the ground of Islamophobia but he

:18:41.:18:45.

has clarified it is nothing about that, it is about finding jihadists.

:18:46.:18:50.

In the Arab world, they called them by their names, why is it that the

:18:51.:18:55.

Obama administration and Hillary Clinton are not using this

:18:56.:18:59.

terminology? It is the political season and he is responding, no

:19:00.:19:02.

doubt about it. Thank you for joining us. It seems extraordinary,

:19:03.:19:12.

doesn't it, that's just a few days ago, this state and indeed the whole

:19:13.:19:17.

of America was celebrating the anniversary, a year of gay marriage.

:19:18.:19:21.

It seemed as if for many in the LGBT community this was a place that was

:19:22.:19:27.

becoming freer, more open and accepting of its LGBT community. But

:19:28.:19:32.

an act like this goes straight to the heart of terror and it is up to

:19:33.:19:39.

America to figure out what kind of place it wants to be. Over to you,

:19:40.:19:42.

Evan. Well, not withstanding events

:19:43.:19:44.

in the US, the referendum campaign here in the UK has been

:19:45.:19:48.

intensifying, immigration But with ten days to go

:19:49.:19:52.

now, Newsnight is out We don't have a battle bus,

:19:53.:19:56.

but our Newsnight truck helpfully transforms into instant studio,

:19:57.:20:06.

from which we'll be getting fresh perspectives, we'll be asking

:20:07.:20:11.

you questions and debating They say all politics is local

:20:12.:20:14.

and we'll be stopping in a diverse selection of localities,

:20:15.:20:21.

from the industrial hub of Middlesbrough, to the football

:20:22.:20:25.

mad City of Leicester, to the postcard pretty market

:20:26.:20:29.

town of Chipping Norton. We'll end up in the southern seaside

:20:30.:20:31.

resort of Bognor Regis on Friday. I've come to the Outer Hebrides,

:20:32.:20:34.

to the Isle of Lewis. Many say Brussels is remote,

:20:35.:20:41.

too distance to Many say Brussels is remote,

:20:42.:20:45.

too distant to connect to our needs. Nowhere in the country can say that

:20:46.:20:47.

with more conviction Further geographically

:20:48.:20:50.

from the heart of the EU In our last Europe referendum,

:20:51.:20:53.

the Western Isles were one of only Unfortunately it's a little

:20:54.:21:00.

expensive to get the truck here, so I hopped over to Stornoway

:21:01.:21:09.

by plane and have left it We'll join Kirsty a little later

:21:10.:21:12.

for that Glasgow perspective. But one big issue in this

:21:13.:21:18.

campaign is distinctiveness. Everywhere in Europe,

:21:19.:21:20.

everywhere in the world, And many feel that membership

:21:21.:21:23.

of a big, sprawling EU Well, there are not many places

:21:24.:21:28.

in the UK or the EU that are as truly distinctive

:21:29.:21:37.

as the Isle of Lewis. The top left-hand corner of Britain,

:21:38.:21:42.

a beautiful location. It scores unusually high

:21:43.:21:48.

on religious observance; certainly don't come here for shopping

:21:49.:21:50.

on the Sunday sabbath. It's low on population density

:21:51.:21:52.

and diversity; and it is hideously light at this time

:21:53.:21:57.

of year and night. So is Brussels a friend or foe,

:21:58.:22:01.

to an island like this? John Sweeney has been here,

:22:02.:22:04.

sounding out local opinion. You're listening to Annie on Isles

:22:05.:22:08.

FM and she is excellent. We certainly are, it is 8.34

:22:09.:22:11.

and a half, I'm very pleased to welcome into the studio

:22:12.:22:17.

from Newsnight, John Sweeney. Outer Hebrides, please,

:22:18.:22:19.

let's get this right. You've come up to do a piece

:22:20.:22:24.

about the EU referendum What's fascinating about this place

:22:25.:22:30.

is that there is very little little inward immigration,

:22:31.:22:37.

which is a big issue and in England and the rest of

:22:38.:22:39.

Britain. Here, you can look at the economic

:22:40.:22:42.

argument pretty purely, in a way, As well as the fact that it is one

:22:43.:22:52.

of the most beautiful places MUSIC: "I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles) -

:22:53.:22:56.

The Proclaimers referendum, the Isle of Lewis

:22:57.:23:05.

was one of only two places So, 40 years on, will the most

:23:06.:23:11.

north-westerly community If you seek the beauty

:23:12.:23:24.

of the European Union, Scalpaigh Bridge, a poem

:23:25.:23:28.

in steel and concrete. Cost, 6 million quid,

:23:29.:23:34.

more than half of it paid Proof, if proof were needed,

:23:35.:23:36.

say Remain, that the European Union If we get out of the European Union,

:23:37.:23:44.

we have control over If we want to build

:23:45.:23:51.

a bridge, we can. This whiskey distillery is not even

:23:52.:23:58.

a year old. Its setup costs were part funded

:23:59.:24:01.

by the EU and for that, seen over the last 20,

:24:02.:24:04.

30 years has had the European badge on it, saying

:24:05.:24:15.

it is it is part-funded. So in the simplest terms,

:24:16.:24:17.

it has provided funding, We used to have single-track

:24:18.:24:19.

roads all over the place. You might notice if you drove

:24:20.:24:30.

from Stornoway today, Every piece of that road has got

:24:31.:24:33.

European funding in it. We have to produce a very,

:24:34.:24:37.

very high quality product here and charge a good price for it

:24:38.:24:39.

to make sure that we can get it to market, get it to people

:24:40.:24:43.

with a profit margin. Europe is obviously going to be

:24:44.:24:46.

a huge market for us because it's close, so the logistics

:24:47.:24:49.

are easier to deal with. But now to the most famous

:24:50.:24:52.

export of these islands. Harris Tweed, it's worn by everyone

:24:53.:24:55.

from Vivienne Westwood And every inch of it

:24:56.:24:58.

comes through here. So this is wet wool,

:24:59.:25:03.

which has a distinctive smell that No, no, it's just a very

:25:04.:25:07.

distinctive smell! At Harris Tweed Hebrides we are very

:25:08.:25:13.

much for remaining part of Europe. We depend very heavily on trading

:25:14.:25:24.

with our European partners, trading with different

:25:25.:25:31.

countries in Europe, France, Germany and Italy

:25:32.:25:33.

in particular and we find that These are all markets we are looking

:25:34.:25:35.

to grow and expand the coming years. It is nine o'clock and

:25:36.:25:43.

the catch is being landed. Do you think if we pull out

:25:44.:25:51.

of Europe tomorrow they are going We have a massive Spanish and French

:25:52.:25:54.

fleet fishing off the west Coast of Scotland but we have a very

:25:55.:25:59.

limited quota for white fish. But they can fish UK water,

:26:00.:26:04.

on our doorstep, but we can't. The Common Fisheries Policy just

:26:05.:26:08.

hasn't worked in the UK as a whole. Kipper fillets, we have

:26:09.:26:14.

smoked mackerels. Some of Ross's fish

:26:15.:26:23.

will end up here, in This is the old kiln, this was one

:26:24.:26:25.

of the original kippering kilns. Kippers used to be loaded

:26:26.:26:33.

from the top down with ladders This is what we use

:26:34.:26:36.

for our own salmon. Our own smoked salmon

:26:37.:26:41.

is done in here. As you can see, the walls

:26:42.:26:44.

are covered in a thick layer of tar. The EU is a vast, vampiric

:26:45.:26:48.

bureaucracy feeding off itself I defy you to go out

:26:49.:26:53.

of here and find anybody who can tell you the distinction

:26:54.:27:00.

between the European Council, the Council of Europe,

:27:01.:27:03.

the European Parliament, In '75, this part of

:27:04.:27:05.

the world voted to leave. It will do, most of the customers

:27:06.:27:11.

who come into our The Outer Hebrides was Labour

:27:12.:27:16.

and is now SNP and both How the vote will pan out,

:27:17.:27:23.

no one knows for sure. Excuse me, sir, please

:27:24.:27:29.

don't swim away. Well, let's get a little

:27:30.:27:37.

more of the debate here. I'm with Mary Anne McIver, who runs

:27:38.:27:54.

a tourist business in Stornaway. And Robert MacInnes,

:27:55.:27:57.

who has a building firm. Thank you for joining us. You are

:27:58.:28:07.

leaning towards out, I think, Robert. Why is that? Before we

:28:08.:28:14.

joined the EU, the harbour was full of local fishing boats and now there

:28:15.:28:19.

are next to none. The French, the Spanish, the Dutch, they are allowed

:28:20.:28:23.

to come into Scotland, catch twice the quota we are allowed, from day

:28:24.:28:31.

one. If we leave, is the fishing industry going to come back, do you

:28:32.:28:36.

think? It will never come back to where it was, they've cleaned it

:28:37.:28:42.

out. You are leaning, you are not quite as firm as Robert. What would

:28:43.:28:50.

make you want to stay? I've been involved into arisen for the last 30

:28:51.:28:55.

years and I've seen huge investment in infrastructure, training and

:28:56.:28:59.

quality standards, marketing, everything has benefited from

:29:00.:29:04.

Europe. At the airport we can see a plaque saying that the airport was

:29:05.:29:07.

paid for party with funds from Europe. What do you make of that,

:29:08.:29:13.

Robert? If we didn't give the money to Brussels in the first place and

:29:14.:29:16.

the UK Government directly gave it to the tourist industry or directly

:29:17.:29:21.

to the farmers in Britain and directly to the fisher in Britain,

:29:22.:29:26.

there would be more -- to the fishermen. Maryanne, who do you

:29:27.:29:32.

think is more in touch and who is going to be looking after the

:29:33.:29:36.

western isles more, Brussels or London? I'd have to say London,

:29:37.:29:41.

absolutely, certainly in Scotland we'd have to say Edinburgh. We are

:29:42.:29:50.

looking out for our own people, who stand up for us. I think we have

:29:51.:29:57.

lost a bit of that through Europe, through the kind of governance in

:29:58.:30:00.

many respects. That's why you are still wavering? Yes, I'm not sure

:30:01.:30:06.

and to be honest it will be on the day that I decide. One reason why so

:30:07.:30:11.

many people in Scotland I think what to vote to remain is that perhaps

:30:12.:30:15.

they see it as a counterbalance to the power of London. You are a

:30:16.:30:19.

supporter of the SNP, so you don't want to be dominated by the English,

:30:20.:30:25.

I think that's obvious. You don't see Brussels as balancing power in

:30:26.:30:31.

London? No, it is even further away that the money is being sent, the UK

:30:32.:30:36.

Government send it to Brussels, they send ?100 and get ?70 back. We are

:30:37.:30:43.

supposed to be grateful. The debate here is a bit distinctive, fishing

:30:44.:30:47.

played a big part in the decision, the vote to come out last time. What

:30:48.:30:53.

about immigration? If you watch the news and look at the debate in

:30:54.:30:57.

England, it is full of immigration. Is that playing here at all? Not at

:30:58.:31:03.

all. We've got a few people coming from the Eastern bloc who have come

:31:04.:31:07.

here and they are very welcome, they are integrated and they are a

:31:08.:31:12.

necessary part of what we do. Especially in the tourism industry,

:31:13.:31:16.

they are necessary to do the jobs, they have children who go to school.

:31:17.:31:23.

I have seen little evidence of any Eastern European migration. There

:31:24.:31:32.

are Polish people here? Have implied four polish people, great workers,

:31:33.:31:36.

work hard, pay their taxes. I'd certainly welcome more. There are

:31:37.:31:41.

fish factories here totally run by Latvians... When you watch the way

:31:42.:31:46.

the argument is going, how connected is it to the issues here? To be

:31:47.:31:54.

honest, for people like me, Joe Published, we've had so much

:31:55.:32:00.

politics in the last few years, with the referendum, we are bombarded

:32:01.:32:06.

with Leave or State, or whatever so we are quite distrustful of what we

:32:07.:32:10.

are hearing, what is being reported. That is why people are not sure

:32:11.:32:15.

which way to vote. Thank you both very much.

:32:16.:32:17.

I've chatted to people asking them to predict the result.

:32:18.:32:19.

And I've had entirely contradictory answers.

:32:20.:32:21.

How about in other parts of Scotland though?

:32:22.:32:25.

Kirsty is with the Newsnight dormobile, in Glasgow.

:32:26.:32:27.

of Kelvingrove Gallery, which has suitably

:32:28.:32:47.

European connections, built in the Spanish Baroque style

:32:48.:32:49.

for the Glasgow International exhibition in 1901.

:32:50.:32:51.

The arguments in the debate broadly in Scotland are over

:32:52.:32:54.

the economic impact of the EU, but migration is not the issue

:32:55.:32:57.

We'll be talking about that in a moment with the psephologist

:32:58.:33:00.

extraordinaire Professor John Curtice, but first let's go

:33:01.:33:02.

to our political editor, Nick Watt, who has learned about a possible

:33:03.:33:05.

News that the Solder has formally backed Brexit. A surprise? Not

:33:06.:33:15.

really, it has not been a great friend of the European union over

:33:16.:33:23.

the years. Remember that headline Up Yours Delors. The newspaper takes

:33:24.:33:28.

pride in reflecting the ideas of swing voters and is relentlessly

:33:29.:33:33.

political because it homes in on the argument giving sleepless nights in

:33:34.:33:35.

three straight which is that the riskiest option is to stay in and

:33:36.:33:41.

those won't be helped by a YouGov poll in the times tonight which

:33:42.:33:45.

suggests that Leave is seven point head. Another set of figures is

:33:46.:33:50.

causing concern, the suggestion that support among Labour voters is

:33:51.:33:54.

falling. This is where the PM has seceded the campaign for Remain to

:33:55.:34:00.

Labour at the moment. You saw Gordon Brown campaigning although there are

:34:01.:34:04.

divisions inside the Labour Party. Many are concerned that Jeremy

:34:05.:34:08.

Corbyn 's celebration of immigration is not helping the blue-collar

:34:09.:34:12.

natural Labour voters who identify with the Vote Leave warnings on

:34:13.:34:15.

immigration. The Shadow ministers are careful what they say yet Ed

:34:16.:34:20.

Balls and Yvette Cooper and former Cabinet members were able to come

:34:21.:34:23.

out and say that if we remained in the EU we could have controls on

:34:24.:34:29.

immigration. We could use the UK presidency of the EU next year to

:34:30.:34:35.

persuade Jenkin countries to perhaps but in border controls. We will be

:34:36.:34:38.

seeing the Prime Minister a game, the Chancellor will make a big

:34:39.:34:42.

speech at Mansion house on Thursday night on economic risks with Mark

:34:43.:34:46.

Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, and on Friday, the big day,

:34:47.:34:50.

Christine Lagarde, managing director of the IMF will against big about

:34:51.:34:55.

what Brexit could mean for the economy. That is because Downing

:34:56.:34:59.

Street firmly believes that the referendum will be won on the

:35:00.:35:03.

economy. The lesson they took from the Scottish referendum was that

:35:04.:35:07.

Project Fear did win the referendum. It wasn't a pledge of further

:35:08.:35:13.

devolutionary powers to Hollywood, it was Project Fear, the economic

:35:14.:35:15.

risk and that is the territory that they want to get back onto. Nick,

:35:16.:35:18.

thank you. What is the latest position in the

:35:19.:35:33.

polls? The evidence is beginning to Camilla and that Leave has made

:35:34.:35:38.

progress. One poll shows a 3-point swing, and mother of four point

:35:39.:35:41.

swing. If we look at all ten opinion polls done over the Internet, since

:35:42.:35:47.

the government has no longer had access to the civil service machine

:35:48.:35:52.

and has dominated headlines by producing paper after paper warning

:35:53.:35:56.

us of the allegedly dire consequences of leaving the EU,

:35:57.:36:00.

since then the opinion polls done over the Internet have on average

:36:01.:36:05.

per delivered to's at 51.5. Before that those polls have always said it

:36:06.:36:11.

was 50-50, and even split. Those polls are still on average better

:36:12.:36:18.

for Remain but in the last couple of weeks including one today we had

:36:19.:36:23.

telephone polls putting Leave head. And on average in those polls only

:36:24.:36:29.

52% support Remain. This referendum is looking much closer than ten days

:36:30.:36:35.

ago. What is the split Nationwide? The truth is that Scotland is

:36:36.:36:39.

certain to Remain although the polls here have given Remain two thirds of

:36:40.:36:44.

the vote and Leave only one third of the vote. Equally in Northern

:36:45.:36:48.

Ireland, it looks as if there will be a 60-40 split in favour of

:36:49.:36:54.

remaining. It's must undoubtedly the case whereas in England and in Wales

:36:55.:37:01.

Leave are ahead. Might it be that Scotland pulls England in? If we are

:37:02.:37:07.

looking at a situation where we may get only 51% support for Remain, in

:37:08.:37:13.

that event, Scotland and Northern Ireland will have been pivotal in

:37:14.:37:17.

keeping the UK inside the European Union. Nick mentioned that speech by

:37:18.:37:19.

Gordon Brown. an audience of university students

:37:20.:37:21.

and it was interesting to note that his closing pitch to them

:37:22.:37:25.

stressed his view of Britain's What sort of message would we send

:37:26.:37:27.

to the world on June 23, if we, Britain, who consider ourselves one

:37:28.:37:32.

of the most internationally-minded countries of the world,

:37:33.:37:34.

who consider ourselves to be outward looking, engaged, decided to walk

:37:35.:37:38.

away from our nearest neighbours? This is not the Britain I know,

:37:39.:37:42.

this is not the Britain I believe in, this is not the Britain

:37:43.:37:46.

we should aspire to be. We should be a leader in Europe

:37:47.:37:50.

and not leaving it, and that's But could Scotland

:37:51.:37:53.

keep the UK in the EU? With the prospect that

:37:54.:38:03.

Nicola Sturgeon could But that would reduce

:38:04.:38:05.

the likelihood of another Scottish referendum, which a

:38:06.:38:08.

Brexit might trigger. To discuss this I'm joined

:38:09.:38:13.

by Glasgow multimillionaire businessman John Boyle, who is

:38:14.:38:22.

leading a one-man charge to leave, the SNP's Alisdair Allan,

:38:23.:38:25.

and the writer Denise Mina. Good evening. First, Alisdair,

:38:26.:38:32.

hasn't David Cameron sort of been using the SNP to say, basically, if

:38:33.:38:38.

you vote to Leave will have another referendum and that could mean a

:38:39.:38:42.

split in the UK. You could be called David Cameron's poodle, doing his

:38:43.:38:48.

work for him. I think that's a far-fetched reading of the

:38:49.:38:50.

situation. We face a simple choice next week about whether we want to

:38:51.:38:54.

be in the EU. That is the question that will be on the ballot paper.

:38:55.:39:00.

It's no secret that I want Scottish independent, so does the Scottish

:39:01.:39:04.

Government, yet that is not what we are being asked. It could be like

:39:05.:39:10.

Project Fear, he says that if we vote to Remain less chance of

:39:11.:39:13.

independence. I don't think people see it in those terms, people are

:39:14.:39:17.

starting to see it as the campaign gets tighter, see what's happening,

:39:18.:39:22.

people are beginning to think of the positive case for being in Europe.

:39:23.:39:27.

And also thinking about what is the prospect that Leave site offers as

:39:28.:39:32.

to how we coexist and trade with the rest of Europe in future? John, a

:39:33.:39:38.

lot of what was said in that film will be no deal. You have businesses

:39:39.:39:43.

all over the UK, undoubtedly -- it will be known to you. That

:39:44.:39:49.

distillery has been open for your... The fact is that the one thing

:39:50.:39:54.

becoming increasingly clear is that this nonsense that if we vote to

:39:55.:39:59.

Leave, Europe somehow will not trade with us. It's nonsense. We run a

:40:00.:40:05.

trade deficit with Europe of ?9 billion a month. We give them ?9

:40:06.:40:14.

billion... There's a huge deficit. The idea that the French, when we

:40:15.:40:23.

put in ?1.3 billion of their wine -- that we import that, would tax us

:40:24.:40:29.

when we export ?480 million of whiskey, it's absolute nonsense. Sir

:40:30.:40:34.

James Dyson at this weekend highlighted this. I think people are

:40:35.:40:39.

becoming increasingly susceptible to the fact that the economic argument

:40:40.:40:44.

survey does not stand up. Denise. Ray mac and John, they are looking

:40:45.:40:48.

at a broader spreadsheet, looking at trade with Britain, they get this

:40:49.:40:54.

much profit from it. They also looking at trade jeopardised with

:40:55.:40:58.

other European countries. If Europe fractures they will have to

:40:59.:41:01.

negotiate tariffs and deal with all those other countries so... Why

:41:02.:41:09.

would Europe commit economic suicide by imposing tariffs on us but not

:41:10.:41:14.

reasonable when they sell more to us than we do to them? Because they are

:41:15.:41:21.

looking at the value of having the European Community. It is

:41:22.:41:24.

interesting that your passion is not matched by what we're hearing from

:41:25.:41:30.

Leave in Scotland, they have been muted, to do regret that? It has

:41:31.:41:35.

been rated, there's a possibility of election fatigue Scotland. I think

:41:36.:41:39.

John Curtis was right, Scotland will undoubtedly vote, not as I think

:41:40.:41:46.

because I think a lot of people in Scotland will vote Remain because

:41:47.:41:50.

they fear the prospect of another referendum, and they are now having

:41:51.:41:54.

second thoughts because there was another referendum, bring it on,

:41:55.:41:59.

we'd win even more convincingly. Let's look at the question of

:42:00.:42:03.

migration. Is it not true that overall migration is the same

:42:04.:42:07.

roughly as it is in England but it is fair to say that we don't have

:42:08.:42:11.

the concentrated areas in Scotland as they do in England and that's the

:42:12.:42:18.

problem. People become ghettoised. It's a sign that people are not made

:42:19.:42:23.

welcome and don't feel safe in disparate communities. But I think

:42:24.:42:28.

people do feel safe here. People from other countries have made a

:42:29.:42:32.

huge contribution to Scotland culturally and economically. It's

:42:33.:42:36.

important to say that we are talking in Scotland about communities from

:42:37.:42:40.

across the EU whose future will be very uncertain if we're not part of.

:42:41.:42:46.

Not only that, it is a two-way street because there are plenty of

:42:47.:42:49.

British people living in countries in Europe whose future would be

:42:50.:42:55.

equally... Earlier in this campaign we went to Boston, Lincolnshire,

:42:56.:42:59.

where 10% of the population from Eastern Europe. If that happened in

:43:00.:43:04.

a town like Stirling it would feel different. People who come here from

:43:05.:43:10.

Europe, coming to make their home in Scotland and big us that complement

:43:11.:43:14.

our making a net contribution economically and culturally to

:43:15.:43:18.

Scotland. They are less likely to be claiming benefits than anyone, more

:43:19.:43:25.

likely to be claiming tax. I think it is unfortunate that elements of

:43:26.:43:28.

the Leave campaign have chosen to make this an unpleasant debate about

:43:29.:43:34.

migration. This is exactly where Remain have gone wrong. They have

:43:35.:43:40.

consistently, the Prime Minister and particularly the Labour Party,

:43:41.:43:43.

refused to discuss immigration. I would concede wholeheartedly it is

:43:44.:43:48.

less of an issue in Scotland than in England but when you have 330,000

:43:49.:43:55.

people coming from the EU into the city the size of Coventry, no matter

:43:56.:44:01.

what benefits there may be, the pressure that it puts on schools and

:44:02.:44:07.

the NHS is... It is nonsense to suggest that we can sweep that under

:44:08.:44:11.

the carpet. It has not been swept under the carpet. The point is

:44:12.:44:16.

leaving the EU will not necessarily resolve migration. Control our own

:44:17.:44:25.

borders, of course it will. It won't make that much difference! The world

:44:26.:44:30.

is fundamentally changing. The coming philosophical question of the

:44:31.:44:34.

edge, how do you maintain a cultural identity in a globalised

:44:35.:44:39.

environment. It is not the EU, it's a globalised environment. You are

:44:40.:44:43.

telling me that... One of the reasons we are democratic is we

:44:44.:44:48.

control our own borders, laws and taxes. If we control none of those

:44:49.:44:53.

we want the country. Can I ask you to address this briefly, Alisdair?

:44:54.:44:58.

If Remain is successful, do you admit that it will push the idea of

:44:59.:45:01.

independence in Scotland into the long grass? I don't accept

:45:02.:45:14.

the premises of these questions. There is a simple question being put

:45:15.:45:17.

to us about the positive case for remaining in the European Union and

:45:18.:45:20.

that is what people in Scotland are thinking of. Of course if Scotland

:45:21.:45:22.

is put in a position where it is tracked out of the European union

:45:23.:45:25.

against its will electorally of course that will have an impact and

:45:26.:45:29.

create new pressures around the case for independence, for the case

:45:30.:45:33.

independence. The case for independence has been around for a

:45:34.:45:38.

long time and it isn't going away. Briefly, Denise, you want to stay in

:45:39.:45:42.

the UK and you accept that if we leave we are more likely to have

:45:43.:45:45.

another referendum. I think people are exhausted, you are right, they

:45:46.:45:50.

are exhausted being asked to write in to constitutional questions, we

:45:51.:45:54.

have to be bound by the outcome of the referendum, whether it is what

:45:55.:45:58.

we would like not. Thank you. That is all from here tonight, there will

:45:59.:46:02.

be more from Emily in Orlando and will be moving on with our Road

:46:03.:46:08.

truck tomorrow. From all of us in Glasgow, good night.

:46:09.:46:17.

Weather across the UK stuck in repeat, plenty of showers, some

:46:18.:46:20.

heavy

:46:21.:46:21.

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