With Evan Davis. How are Great Britain doing so well in Rio? A look at tensions in Ukraine. And is Joseph Chamberlain Theresa May's hero?
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The national anthem is ringing out across Rio this month.
After a summer of the strangest political
shenanigans, is sport making Britain look serious?
We're on the medal trail tonight, symbols of success
that have the power to lift a nation.
So how exactly have we
The woman in charge of UK Sport will tell us what
we're doing right and whether it can last.
The most unfriendly rivalry - in Donetsk and on the
Crimean peninsula, new tension between Russia and Ukraine.
We'll ask if Brexit Britain should be
trying to reset its relationship to Russia.
And it is this man, Joseph Chamberlain, the new Guru
He promised better housing, minimum wage, to crack down
He promised many things that Theresa May promised the
Are you one of those people who can't help poring over the medal
Taking delight in the fact that Britain, number two,
are ahead of China, for the moment at least?
It is certainly more fun when your country is doing well,
and for the third Games in a row, Britain is looking
It wasn't always like that - some of us can remember our typical
haul of three or four gold medals, the numbers we achieved at Munich
Five golds was a good Games haul - Barcelona in 1992, for example.
After the embarrassment of Atlanta, we went up one gear,
and then after Athens, we went up another.
Other countries have seen their fortunes shift,
too: Australia had no golds in Montreal but rose
Fortunes wax and wane, and fortunes are spent.
Given the capacity of the Olympics to instil feelings of national well
being, it's worth asking, what is it that makes
What have we done right, and is it going to last?
Let's start with some facts and analysis from Secunder Kermani.
We must be doing something right. Yesterday, we won five gold medals,
and there were more today. In Atlanta in 1996, Great Britain won
just one medal. Is this all simply the result of more and better
focused funding? In Sydney in 2000, Britain's Olympians received ?59
million in funding. They won 28 medals. That's around ?2.1 million
per medal. London 2012, Olympians received ?264 million and won 65
medals, just over ?4 million per medal. This time round,
they got ?274 million, and if, as looks likely, they reach their
target of 48 medals, that would work out at ?5.7 million per medal, and
it would be Britain's most successful overseas Olympics. I am
most surprised by how people are surprised by how well we're doing.
We have increased funding, good systems and structures in place, and
in the past, we went to the Olympic Games would hope rather than
expectation. Given the investment we have made in the last 20 years so,
we can expect rather than hope. You might have thought that the bigger
and richer a is, automatically the more medals it gets. This graph
compares total medals won in 2012 with GDP full stop America, for
example, lots of money, lots of medals. But it's not quite that
straightforward. India, with a big economy, underperforms massively,
while Cuba does better than you would expect. Britain is above the
line, which means it did well. With population, the correlation is even
bleaker. Outliers like India, massive population but few medals.
Cuba, small population but many medals. These are more pronounced.
So how do you explain these results? It might come down to the things
such as the health of the population, Government policy,
cultural importance of sport and other factors. You have to have the
will and commitment to do that. In India, they have a vast population,
which would presumably generate hundreds of thousands of Olympic
athlete if the nation were really committed to developing them, but
they are just not. Addicting the Olympics and understanding results
has become a bit of an obsession. This formula was formulated by
German academics. It includes GDP, whether there is a centralised
economy, and whether the population is mainly Muslim, which can affect
how many female athletes there are. A colleague of mine at the
University of Colorado carried out an exercise when he compared the
prediction of the models. The model predicted pretty much everything. It
is hard to make like-for-like comparisons between competing
nations and their level of funding, but Britain has been spending more
than its other less successful rivals. For now, though, few will
complain. It is worth saying, by the way,
that there has been medal inflation: there are a lot more events
in the Olympics these days. So there are 306 gold
medals this year. Liz Nicholl is the Chief Executive
of UK Sport and she joins Lovely to speak to you, and
congratulations on what is going on over there. On the target, the 48,
we will bust through that, won't we? Are you thinking it is possible
Britain will outperform its London 2012 performance? The target, as you
said, is at least 48. And yes, we are on track to achieve that over
the coming days. Will we reach 66? Who knows? We know there is a good
number of possible medal opportunities over the next week,
and we will have to see where we get to. There is very little... The
space between a fourth and a third and a second and a first is minute,
so we will have to see how it plays out here in 30. It is costing us,
depending on how many medals we end up with, around ?5 million of
investment per medal, isn't it? Do you think about those figures, what
it costs to get one in swimming and one in hockey? Do you work that way
in working out the funding allocation? We work it out by
identifying the athletes that have the potential to deliver medals in
the Olympic Games environment, and then the sport developed a strategy,
and we call that a what it takes to win strategy. It is omitted to us at
UK Sport for review, and that will include what it takes to surround an
athlete with world-class coaching, sports science, sports medicine,
competition opportunities, innovation work where appropriate,
and alongside that strategy, like in any business, we have a what it
costs to win assessment. Each sport has unique check the wood features,
and we have done a lot of work to prepare for our big Tokyo investment
in December. My understanding was, which you haven't talked about, that
we have the most brutal system of the big countries in terms of
punishing sport that don't do very well, taking money away, and giving
it to spot that don't do so well, which a lot of people say is
perverse because you are taking money from the ones that need it. Is
that a big part of it - the carrot and the stick? No, there is no
punishment and no reward. We invite hast -- reinvest National Lottery
funding. Our aim is to support every athlete with medal potential in any
Olympic sports that are competing at the games, so it is a fair system
that gives the opportunity to every athlete of equal talent. If they
have the talent to deliver a medal, we support them. We are always
investing in future potential, so we are not punishing past performances
if they were not as successful as they should have been. We are
investing in future potential of athletes. We have invested
significantly in Rio, and our plan is to invest in Tokyo. Is it
possible, particularly looking at our performance, because you put in
a lot more money and got more medals, but everyone is not going to
start doing what we are doing. We are getting into an arms race. We
will have to spend ?10 million per medal next time. Is that something
that could happen? No, I think that we need to be very smart about the
way that we invest the National Lottery and Government exchequer
funding in the right athletes and the right sports for the right
reasons. A lot of other countries are copying our system here, which
has been incredibly successful, as you can see from the performances
and results to date here in Rio. So, yes, there will be other countries
investing, competition will get stronger, the spread of medals will
go wider across more nations as other countries actually look to try
to copy the successful system we have created here. You know there is
a bit of a pattern to host nations, is in their? They do well in the
games before the one-day house, they do fantastically well in the one-day
host and then there is a depreciation effect where it tails
off. Argue confident that we can buck that trend? Do you think we
will have a similar target in Tokyo? Might we expect 50 or more medals in
Tokyo? I am confident that with the support of the National Lottery
players, with the continued support of Government, that we can live
sustained success with British athletes in the Olympic and
Paralympic games environment. I'm confident that, in fact, we can
build on... You are right - before the home games, there is an uplift
because there is a stronger strategic focus on trying to deliver
something that will make the nation proud. We saw the impact of that in
Beijing. We saw then the full benefit in London. And since then,
the athletes that we have funded have been delivering volunteer days
to inspire the next generation, so that special impact of success that
we felt in London, that we are feeling now from the performances
here, is also giving added value to the country, to the nation, by
inspiring the next generation of talent to come through with an
ambition to achieve great things in the Olympic environment. Let's hope
so. Liz Nicholl, thank you very much indeed. Enjoy the evening air.
The festering tensions between Ukraine and Russia have
In the last few days, the Russians have claimed that
Ukraine orchestrated some kind of terrorist attack on Crimea that
killed a Russian soldier and security officer.
But both sides appear to be putting their military on alert.
Let's talk to Tom Burridge, who is in Kiev.
Tom, you have been to the unrecognised border between Crimea
and Ukraine. What is happening there? Essentially, Ukrainians
crossed the border, hit the beaches, see family friends, pretty much
business as usual this weekend, a relaxed atmosphere at odds with the
tension we have seen between Moscow and Kiev in recent days. We saw no
evidence of a Ukrainian military build-up in the region, even driving
around, which tallies with the idea and a belief of most people that
some sort of military incursion from the south by Russia is unlikely, and
this tension is more likely to do with the wider Ukrainian - Russian
relations. The Russians said there was some kind of incident and a
Russian soldier was killed, so what is the truth of it? What we know
about what actually happened? It is hard to answer. With Russian
involvement and strategy vis-a-vis Ukraine, we saw it with the
annexation in 2014, the line between fact and fiction is often blurred
and it makes it harder for western countries to respond with their own
strategy. We know that around the time of this alleged plot, there was
some incident, some reports of firing on the administrative border
between Crimea and southern Ukraine, but one element of the Russian
account of events, if you like, doesn't seem to stack up and stop
the Russians said there was an artillery bombardment by the
Ukrainians into Crimea just around the time, just after, basically. In
this day and age, you would expect there to be some video evidence, and
we have not seen that so far. We interviewed the brother of one of
the Eurocrat is who is being detailed -- Ukrainians who is being
detained and accused of being a plotter, creeping into Crimea to
carry out this alleged attack. On the face of it, he doesn't seem to
have the profile of a special Ops soldier. In the words of these
brother, he was overweight, could hardly run 100 metres without being
out of breath. Until recently, he was a minibus driver at a nuclear
power plant 150 miles from Crimea, and on the face of it, his brother
's account, his animosity and his claim that his brother is a victim
of a bigger political picture seems genuine. Tom, thank you very much.
Well, there is basically one big strategic choice in foreign policy:
It is a question that's at the heart of our relationship with Russia.
Remember that Britain is looking for new post-Brexit relationships.
And remember, too, we no longer have the energy independence
We're joined by Sir Tony Brenton, former British Ambassador to Russia,
and Nancy Soderberg, who was Deputy National Security
Good evening to you both. Nancy Soderberg, do you think this is a
time for conciliation or toughness in relation to Russia? Vladimir
Putin all now understands toughness. The United States has gone through
this, we tried a reset and it didn't work. He is looking for a fight and
we need to make sure he does not get another one in Georgia or Ukraine. I
think he is trying to fabricate incidents and make up the mess, the
UK is moving troops and making it clear we will defend our friends and
that's the only message she will understand. I don't entirely agree.
Nancy is right we need to be on our guard and not offer the Russians any
opportunities to exploit any disagreements. But over the last
three years we have been sliding rapidly towards people are
describing as a new Cold War. Those of us who remember the old Cold War
will remember it was fantastically expensive and occasionally very
dangerous and it seems to me we need to look for ways to stop that slide,
looking for ways of cooperating with Russia where we can. Syria is an
obvious example, the United States is already finding ways to work with
the Russians to help get the situation under control. I don't
think you will disagree with that Nancy Soderberg? We obviously need
to Russia on our strategic challenges not just in Syria but
also Iran, they continue to support our arms control agreements in those
pictures but on territorial disputes and brute force against not only
their own population but some of their neighbours I think we need to
stand up to that. Of course I am a diplomat as well and believe in
diplomacy but I think with Russia he does not understand consolatory
messages and will take every and she can. We are having this debate in
the United States with our own presidential candidate on the
Republican side questioning Nato and are use of nuclear weapons. I think
any source of weakness which would come from the United States would be
dangerous for Britain and all our allies in that region. You will
agree where cooperation is useful we should cooperate but it's on the
other things, it is how you can overlook the fact how the Russian
state appeared to be involved in the assassination of a British citizen,
they invaded Crimea, took it from a sovereign nation. That is all true,
Russia is a pretty difficult international customer. But it's
also true that Russia is not the great threat which it has been
presented as in Washington and London. It's important to remember
at that Russia spends on its defence about one tenth of what we in need
to do. It has at no economy about one 20th the size of us. It sees
itself as threatened by us. You are any classic situation where each
side sea itself threatened by the other and you need to look for ways
to get those false impressions on both sides down. A quick answer on
that Nancy Soderberg? It is Russia creating false impressions by saying
it had to go to the Ukrainian defence. We have to look at areas of
cooperation but Russia is a very dangerous regional power, it's no
longer a superpower so we are not headed towards a new Cold War but we
are headed towards a possibility of not having a partner in Russia and
having a regional, very weak governmental lashing out in a
dangerous way. We need to try and contain them as we did in the Soviet
Union but on a much smaller scale. This president is not one who will
understand anything but strength from Nato and it's important to
convey that. You will not agree on that point but let asked if Brexit
makes a difference, does it mean we need to Russia as a friend, is it
time for a re-set? I don't think Brexit makes a huge difference, at
the harder end of that, our position on this I understand will not change
very quickly and from the EU point of view, one thing we have brought
to their party has been our foreign policy and defence expertise and I
am sure they will want to maintain those links as strongly as they can.
Nancy Soderberg I am guessing you will worry about the effects of
Brexit, Britain was pulling the UK towards your position? -- pulling
the EU to urge position? I think it's a mistake for the UK to pull
out of the EU, I think a stronger EU is in everyone's interest. I can
guarantee Vladimir Putin is loving this debate about watching Europe
fall apart amongst itself over no big issue. I think it's unfortunate,
I think it is survivable but it doesn't help put a unified front
against Russia when the biggest foreign policy power, the most
respected part of the EU, frankly, Leeds. That's not good for anyone.
Nancy Soderberg, Sir Tony Brenton, thank you very much.
Theresa May has been Prime Minister for over a month now,
but it still doesn't feel like we really know
Early days, but maybe we have a clue as to her thinking in the fact that
on the steps of Downing Street she name-checked Joseph Chamberlain,
a politician who helped define modern Conservatism.
He wasn't really a Conservative at all.
He was a radical and a liberal who built his career by building
Lewis Goodall reports on Joseph Chamberlain
In 30 years, Birmingham grew into a dirty,
The transformation that was to come was more astonishing.
Elegant thoroughfares, sewers, clean water,
beautiful civic buildings like the law courts
One man is responsible for this - Theresa May's new lodestar.
You could say that Joseph Chamberlain
was Britain's first truly modern political
political organiser, someone who was truly transformative.
He turned Birmingham from being just a quiet,
provincial backwater into one of the most advanced and progressive
Joseph Chamberlain became mayor of the city
This Victorian chameleon was a radical liberal, a guardian of
the working class, and a godfather of municipal conservatism, and he's
The political hero of one Nick Timothy, Theresa May's
chief of staff and most trusted adviser, is none other than
And who should be mentioned in her first policy speech
From Robert Peel to Lady Thatcher, from Joseph Chamberlain to Winston
Churchill, throughout history, it has been the Conservative Party's
role to rise to the occasion and to take on the vested interests before
Listen to the kind of language she uses -
We don't just believe in individualism
We value the role that only the state can play.
Chamberlain took the waterworks and gas supply
into city ownership and disease fell.
This was local nationalisation, and the profits were
This was the Civic Gospel, that famous Victorian morality.
The Civic Gospel was born of a religious idea.
Chamberlain was a Unitarian and a nonconformist.
His approach terrified the middle classes of the
day, who saw him as a gas and water socialist.
We have not the slightest intention of making profit, he said.
We shall get our profit in the comfort and health of our
I think it was Chamberlain's business sense to take
that risk, to see that there was potential that they could gain
profit, and that that profit could fund
other ventures, such as the
building of the museum and art gallery which we are standing in
The university is one of Chamberlain's most abiding legacies.
It represents the power of civic pride that made
Birmingham the first of
In the shadow of the old Joe clock tower, Malcolm Dick explains
Chamberlain's primary contribution to Conservative history - the appeal
We can see him emphasising a social reform
strand, at least in as far as linking working-class aspirations,
social and economic aspirations, with the state.
And a tradition of strong local authorities versus a
Chamberlain began life as a liberal, but split over home-rule, founding
Then he took them into the Conservative Party.
He believed in the union and in
policies that appealed to the working class.
But Chamberlain was also an avowed imperialist.
He was colonial secretary and progenitor of the
He wanted the Empire to be a single trade block.
He designed Corporation Street, a Parisian-style
boulevard running through Birmingham to sell its wares.
And the taxes on those goods would be
Imperialism was probably his fatal mistake, but a politically
He promised better housing, old-age pensions, the
minimum wage, to crack down on immigration.
things that Theresa May promised the day.
It is the only industrial city where the
Conservative Party has survived in significant numbers.
A strong presence in the council chamber
Their local leader relishes a Tory shift
I think we will see a focus on an industrial
Theresa May talked about the importance of
making sure that key industries aren't taken out of the country.
And I think we will see some changes on
devolution, a speeding up of the devolving
strings to allow cities to really make the best deal they can.
Theresa May has been in politics for 30
years, and Home Secretary for the last six, yet
we know surprisingly little about her political beliefs.
Chamberlain may well be her lodestar, and if he is, the
Conservatives are in for a bit of a shock,
strand of conservatism and Conservative thought that would mark
the biggest departure for the party since 1979.
Churchill said of Chamberlain that he was a politician
If Theresa May is serious in reawakening this
strand of thinking, she may well yet manage the same.
Back to the Olympics now, and time to join one of the country's
Not Stephen Smith, needless to say, but the evergreen former Olympics
and Match of the Day commentator, Barry Davies.
Will Stephen Smith complete his Olympic marathon?
Oh, you can really feel it in the pelotons.
Just getting into the spirit after Jason Kenny and Laura Trott,
It was for me, I didn't get off the couch until four.
I must say it's an absolute treat to have a proper
I think it's exhilarating stuff, we're doing far better
I wonder if I'm really setting the right tone sitting on a sofa
Is this what Lord Reith had in mind when he began sports coverage?
COMMENTATOR: Into the finishing straight, Jason Kenny has got this
and Jason Kenny wins the gold medal for the second time!
You half expect the lead guy to throw some tacks over
COMMENTATOR: It is gold medal number five.
And Max Whitlock has gone ahead of Louis Smith.
Do these guys basically dislike each other?
They can't help but be sore and jealous if things don't
I mean, I know the Americans like to say we are only
going for gold but if you get a medal you have done darn well.
The contrast this summer between the Olympians
with the performance of the England team at Euro 2016.
The major difference is that these guys, certainly
in their first Olympics, have to do something
They are not making money at an early stage of their lives.
Some young footballers are making a lot of money for their potential,
Can you remember some Olympic moment, maybe you had an iffy tummy,
I did an Olympic Games, doing the opening
By making sure you are prepared for the disaster.
Do you wish you were out there this time?
Talking to you is worth probably a copper.
It's always good to see a sportsman working hard.
At the height of his game, yeah.
But if you're an older viewer and you have a funny feeling
that the Olympic women's gymnastics are a little bit more...
Well, more everything than you remember from your youth,
we leave you with this rather clever comparison made by the music channel
MTV which suggests that you're absolutely right.
Hello. After a day in which we saw sunny skies from Shetland to the
Channel Islands, a fine start to Tuesday morning. Things will be on
the cool side in the countryside but quickly warming up as blue skies for
most of the day, some cloud towards eastern coasts. For most, sunny
skies throughout. Northern is