23/08/2016 Newsnight


23/08/2016

How has Brazil managed the Paralympics? Corbyn's train controversy, the gender pay gap, and competing with post-Olympic depression. With Evan Davis.


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It is a Newsnight studio ram packed with guests this evening.

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It is a Newsnight studio ram packed Vergini Coast they they have the

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footage to prove otherwise. -- Virgin East Coast. Can we get to the

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bottom of it. Also tonight... Rio de Janeiro has had a good couple of

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weeks, but is it now facing its biggest embarrassment? Botching the

:00:46.:00:47.

organisation of the Paralympic Games. It's desperately, desperately

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disappointing, not least for the athletes who are having to compete

:00:52.:00:56.

in two weeks in real adversity. The man in charge of the International

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Paralympic Association will tell us whether he has hopes of fears for

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the Games this year. And from Olympic gold to Olympic gloom, how

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the athletes had to come down after coming home.

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You've got to hand it to Rio that when it came to the Olympics,

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Whatever the worries, the mishaps, the less

:01:21.:01:25.

than crowded stadiums, the Games were actually great.

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And in a city that doesn't have the money of London

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or the dictatorial tendencies of Beijing, they showed

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you can still host a successful Olympics and be normal.

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But, when it comes to the Paralympics, Rio does not look

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Ticket sales are appalling, budget cuts are biting,

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some teams won't make it, having not been sent

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So how much of setback will these Games be, from the successful

:01:50.:01:55.

It's been a day of beaming smiles and flashing medals, as

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While success in Rio helped overshadow criticism

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of how the Games were run, there are now concerns over the fate

:02:19.:02:22.

Problems like green swimming pools have led to money intended

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for the Paralympics being spent on the Olympics instead,

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Whilst dismal ticket sales could mean even more empty seats.

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It's almost become an Olympic tradition to question how ready

:02:41.:02:45.

a host nation is before the Games begin, but this does feel like it's

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Just the other week, the head of the International Paralympic

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Committee said that the Games have never faced circumstances like these

:02:56.:02:58.

The Paralympic cycling team is training here in Newport.

:02:59.:03:03.

They are focusing on winning medals, but the controversies

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Is there a disappointment about the ticket sales?

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That's clearly a lot of empty seats and it would be nice

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if they were filled, not just from the athletes'

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perspective and the spectators' perspective and the whole

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atmosphere, but also from the funding perspective

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and just the exposure to the sport and the atmosphere in general.

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The Paralympics are meant to be run in line and we always

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because of the way the calendar works.

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But the way they treat us definitely isn't the same, is it?

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According to official documents, the Brazilian authorities had

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initially hoped to raise $170 million for the Paralympics.

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But we've been told they are now nowhere near the amount they need.

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One reason is just 12% of tickets have been sold,

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compared to 92% of Olympic tickets, although even then

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There are also just 28 Paralympic sponsors,

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As a result, they've decided to make cuts to the workforce,

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cuts to transport services for athletes and also changes

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to the venues of some events, allowing the closure of one

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London's 2012 Paralympic Games were hailed as being

:04:29.:04:34.

The former Paralympic athlete who helped deliver them says that

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legacy looks like it's in tatters now.

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This is a leap into Paralympic prehistory.

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The economic and political backdrop are certainly very different

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to when Rio won the bid, but this doesn't have so much

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to do with the economics, this has to do with cannibalisation

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of the Paralympic budget to bail out and backfill Olympic elements that

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didn't need to go wrong in the first place.

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There has been a disrespect, a misunderstanding,

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a lack of understanding for the Paralympic Games,

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for the potential and for the impact that could have made

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A legacy for the 45 million disabled people in Brazil could make a

:05:20.:05:29.

difference. Many still struggle with being accepted and feeling included.

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TRANSLATION: I was disappointed but not surprised that the lack of

:05:35.:05:37.

funding, because historically, disabled people have been left

:05:38.:05:40.

behind in this city. Having said that, there have now been some

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improvements to public transport here because of the Games. But

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despite everything, Rio is what Paralympic athletes have spent years

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training for. And all the athletes we spoke to were clear about the

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need to make the most of the Games. People will organise it or they

:05:58.:06:01.

won't, they will sort it or they went, and we're going to have to

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kind of deal with it as it happens. Whereas the performance of riding a

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bike as fast as we can, that is totally within our control, so we

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just have to do the best we can and make sure we get the best

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performances out of ourselves. Delays to travel grants paid out by

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Brazilian authorities had raised concerns that some countries

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wouldn't even be be able to afford to come to Rio. It looks like it

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won't come to that, but many are seeing these Games as a missed

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opportunity. Tim Hollingsworth is

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the Chief Executive of the British Paralympic

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Association. It seems that all the teams are

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going? That is the case now. It is very late news but that travelled

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ground that was referenced that the organising committee makes available

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to every nation, including us, has got enough certainty for every

:06:52.:06:55.

nation to confirm that they are coming. That is very important, we

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wouldn't want any athlete who is qualified to go not going. Argue

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basically optimistic about these Games? Is it just the case that the

:07:04.:07:07.

Brazilians get it together late on, or are you thinking this is going to

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be like we heard in the piece, this is prehistory for the Paralympics?

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Chris Holmes had more than a little hand in London 2012 and knows very

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much of what he speaks and he is right in a sense that to weeks out,

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we shouldn't be speaking about this, we should have had the Paralympic

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Games ready and organised in the way that the authorities in Brazil

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promised two years -- seven years ago when they won the bid. I guess

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Brazil is in a different place economically now than it was then,

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but we have seen circumstances arise to call into question a lot of the

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traditional services and everything you would expect. Like what

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services? We are taking about 260 athletes to Rio, our biggest ever

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away. A lot of things around the transport, the village, some of the

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accommodation for the athletes, we want an exact what we're facing. We

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may now have to overlay some of our own support for the athletes to make

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sure that is OK. I'm sure you're going to ask about the ticket sales.

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We want. A.D. And excited countrymen. How much of a difference

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does it make and how much of a difference would it make to

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Paralympics in general if these Games are perceived to have been a

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bit of a flop? Empty stadiums, not much excitement, not much buzz, is

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that really serious? That would be really concerning. We go on about

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London's cataclysmic impact but that really was the case. It was a

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transformational Games for many of us and people's attitudes towards

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sport and disability. We found we've got more nations than ever before

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competing, more competitive than ever before, the sport will be

:08:45.:08:49.

better than London. NDC in America for the first time have live

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coverage. The whole upswing around the world. The sport is going to be

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better? The one thing we can be sure of is that the Times will be fast

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and people will be competing more strongly than they were in London.

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One might look at this and say it is a sort of depressing sign that

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although we talk about the parity of the Games, this talk is really a

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British thing and actually nowhere else in the world talks about it

:09:16.:09:19.

like this? The American team is the same size as our team. I think the

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French team is two thirds or half the size of our team. I think we bat

:09:27.:09:32.

above our weight in the Paralympics. Is it a British thing to think of

:09:33.:09:38.

the Parolo pigs as important? We are the birthplace of the movement, with

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Stoke Mandeville being the birthplace of that and we should be

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proud of that. But it doesn't make it bad at all, the fact that we are

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one of the larger teams is partly historic but it is also demonstrably

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the case that more athletes are coming to this Games than ever

:09:56.:10:00.

before. More nations are taking it seriously and the journey is

:10:01.:10:03.

definitely very positive. If I were to be a bit cliched about it, it is

:10:04.:10:07.

a journey. The movement is growing and I think it's really important

:10:08.:10:11.

that with Rio and with Tokyo to come, Tokyo has already demonstrated

:10:12.:10:14.

huge interest in the Paralympic Games and I think this will still be

:10:15.:10:18.

a great games. The sport will be fantastic and we have seen, small

:10:19.:10:22.

measures, but we have seen quite a lot of tickets seen in the last few

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days, about 100,000. While we still got a lot of concerns, I think it

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still looking like we could have a great Games. The ban has been upheld

:10:31.:10:36.

for Russia, they cannot go. Was that a good idea for the Paralympic

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committee to be on a kind of stronger anti-regime crusade than

:10:42.:10:45.

the Olympic Committee? I think so. I think it was a bowl and right thing

:10:46.:10:49.

to do at this time. Doping in Paralympic sport, it's quite unusual

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really, we haven't had any major cases, but for them to read in the

:10:54.:10:57.

McLaren review about so much potential evidence of systematic

:10:58.:11:00.

doping as they uncovered, I think it was the right thing to do. It's very

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sad that the athletes, no one is celebrating Russia not being there,

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but it feels like we've done the right thing as a Paralympic

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movement. Medel prediction for Team GB? Second place? We were third last

:11:13.:11:18.

time. And we move up to third like in the Olympics West remarked they

:11:19.:11:23.

have done fantastically well in the limpet games. ParalympicsGB, we're

:11:24.:11:30.

looking at 120 medals in London, if we can match or exceed that I think

:11:31.:11:32.

we will make the nation proud. A new study of men, women

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and the labour market It's from the Institute

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for Fiscal Studies, who are very good at making sense of huge

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datasets, and the report confirms what we perhaps knew -

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that women earn less than men. But there is more to say

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about it that that. There are three basic

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takeaway facts here. The first is this -

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the wage gap between childless women The men have hourly wages that

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are about 10% higher than the women. And that is a pretty

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significant gender disparity. It's not clear what the cause is -

:11:59.:12:01.

this is not different It could be that women gravitate

:12:02.:12:04.

towards different occupations Or it maybe that society has tended

:12:05.:12:08.

to pay so-called women's jobs, like nursing, less than so-called

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men's jobs, like trucking. The second point is that on top

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of this, a bigger disparity that So here is the wage gap in relation

:12:17.:12:26.

to the birth of a first child. Before the child,

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the gap is about 10%. And then in the later years

:12:38.:12:39.

after the first child, 12 years after their

:12:40.:12:43.

first born, the wage In fact, for every year taken

:12:44.:12:48.

out of the workplace, the woman's salary when she returns

:12:49.:12:52.

is 2% lower than it would That, you can call the price

:12:53.:12:55.

of taking time out. There is a third point to make

:12:56.:13:06.

though - that the wage gap is bigger at the more educated end

:13:07.:13:09.

of the labour market. For people with A-levels

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or a university degree, the wage penalty of taking time out

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is much bigger than for people Of course, top end jobs are better

:13:14.:13:16.

paid, but they are more better So two question leap out

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of all this. Why is the penalty of looking after

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children quite as large as it is? And why there is that core 10%

:13:29.:13:32.

gender wage gap even when children One country that has a smaller

:13:33.:13:36.

than average gap is Sweden - it has long been seen as a beacon

:13:37.:13:40.

of equal opportunity. Joining us now from Sweden, the

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Minister for Labour. Good evening, thanks for joining us. What do you

:13:57.:14:00.

think it takes to get that wage gap down? What is the most powerful and

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effective tool? I think the first thing is that you have to be very

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persistent and very decisive, that you will reach a 100% equal pay and

:14:11.:14:16.

you will not be satisfied with less. But being more pragmatic, I think

:14:17.:14:20.

that it must be easy to combine family and working life and I think

:14:21.:14:24.

that is one of the things that we have done quite good in Sweden.

:14:25.:14:30.

Almost all women work, we have a high employment rate amongst men and

:14:31.:14:40.

women. There is still a gap of 4% but that is smaller each year. I

:14:41.:14:46.

think we will reach equal levels of employment rates between men and

:14:47.:14:50.

women. And this is important. I was looking at the OECD statistics,

:14:51.:14:57.

respected international comparisons, and you still have quite a big wage

:14:58.:15:02.

gap. At one point you were world readers, but now still around 15% of

:15:03.:15:08.

wage gap. Even when you have a government that calls itself

:15:09.:15:11.

feminists, why do you think you still cannot get rid of that last

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15%? It is coming closer, it is 12.5% now and we need to take into

:15:19.:15:24.

account these things that can be explained by different levels of

:15:25.:15:28.

education and different ages. It is still a gap between 4.5% but I think

:15:29.:15:34.

we have got to do more and that is why we passed a law saying all

:15:35.:15:39.

importers have got to do equal pay gap reviews every year. At the

:15:40.:15:46.

workplace. And all employers also have to have an action plan, how to

:15:47.:15:50.

get rid of the equal pay gap. I think this is one important tool you

:15:51.:15:58.

can use on each workplace. Do not need to talk to the Swedish men, you

:15:59.:16:04.

have generous parental leave for when people have children, I think

:16:05.:16:08.

16 months between the mother and the father. It is the women who take

:16:09.:16:13.

most of that, though. Three quarters of it is women. That is correct and

:16:14.:16:20.

that is why we have just passed a new law saying that we will have, we

:16:21.:16:27.

will earmark three months for the mother and three months for the

:16:28.:16:33.

father. Or if there is a same sex parents, three months for one parent

:16:34.:16:36.

and three for the other. I think this will really help to have a more

:16:37.:16:41.

equal use of the parental leave and I think we have got to go one month

:16:42.:16:47.

by month until we reach an equal level of parental leave. Do you

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think that the wage gap that you still have, is that what I would

:16:54.:16:58.

call a gender gap or a child rearing gap? Is that the punishment can if

:16:59.:17:04.

you like, for a woman coming out of the labour market and going back in

:17:05.:17:07.

or is it about sexism at work or the weight we respect men but jobs

:17:08.:17:16.

different to women's jobs? It is not so easy, you are not punished

:17:17.:17:20.

because your children, it is quite easy to have children in Sweden, we

:17:21.:17:25.

have a good, high quality and affordable childcare for all

:17:26.:17:28.

children and we have this generous parental leave. We can also see that

:17:29.:17:34.

women with a high income, high level of education, have more children

:17:35.:17:37.

than those with low levels. So this is not really that easy, but you can

:17:38.:17:44.

see we still have a division in the labour market where women tend to

:17:45.:17:49.

work more with caring, working with people. And tend to be paid less if

:17:50.:17:56.

you work with people than if you work with machines or technology. I

:17:57.:17:59.

think that is one reason. Another reason is that a lot of women work

:18:00.:18:05.

in sectors where they're not allowed to be full-time working, so they

:18:06.:18:12.

work 80% or something but they still would like to work 100%. This is one

:18:13.:18:17.

of the most important issues for the Swedish unions to fight for. Yes,

:18:18.:18:26.

the part-time, full-time, and different occupations, caring

:18:27.:18:28.

occupations being underpaid. Thank you very much.

:18:29.:18:30.

It didn't take long for Twitter to call it Traingate.

:18:31.:18:32.

A case of alleged mendacity on the East Coast line.

:18:33.:18:35.

It started last week with Jeremy Corbyn recording some

:18:36.:18:37.

footage about the state of the railways, sitting

:18:38.:18:39.

on the floor of a train, calling it ram-packed.

:18:40.:18:42.

The implication was that there were no available seats.

:18:43.:18:47.

Well, Virgin decided to declare war on the Corbyn machine today,

:18:48.:18:50.

releasing CCTV images of apparently empty seats on that train,

:18:51.:18:54.

and indeed showing us that Mr Corbyn went to sit in one

:18:55.:18:57.

Now in TV land we know that sometimes the thing

:18:58.:19:02.

you want to film - like a ram-packed train -

:19:03.:19:04.

And we normally find carefully constructed weasel words to get

:19:05.:19:10.

We'd say "trains like this are ram-packed day-in and day-out".

:19:11.:19:16.

Or "often you can't get even a seat on a train,

:19:17.:19:18.

But Mr Corbyn left himself less wiggle room.

:19:19.:19:23.

He said, "Today this train is completely ram-packed".

:19:24.:19:27.

He's meant to be untainted by the dark arts of spin,

:19:28.:19:33.

so was it ram-packed or merely crowded, and does it matter?

:19:34.:19:35.

Something that Jeremy Corbyn's fans love about him is his

:19:36.:19:42.

Indeed, a few weeks ago he made a viral

:19:43.:19:46.

video about being the victim of an all too common problem.

:19:47.:20:03.

Today though, Virgin Trains, which runs

:20:04.:20:05.

And it shows him walking past empty seats before he recorded that video.

:20:06.:20:14.

Then settling down in a seat, after he was done.

:20:15.:20:17.

Mr Corbyn's team absolutely deny this

:20:18.:20:32.

We walked through all the carriages on the train and there

:20:33.:20:40.

So either people were sitting in the seats,

:20:41.:20:43.

or they were reserved, or

:20:44.:20:44.

there was, you know, luggage in the seats reserving

:20:45.:20:46.

Walked all the way through the train and ended up having to sit

:20:47.:20:51.

on the floor at the far end of the train.

:20:52.:20:57.

There were other passengers there also sitting on the floor.

:20:58.:20:59.

They weren't able to get a seat either.

:21:00.:21:01.

I think after about 45 minutes we were able to, a friendly

:21:02.:21:04.

train guard came to tell us that some seats have become available.

:21:05.:21:08.

As I understand, a family moved into,

:21:09.:21:10.

first-class section of the train and therefore

:21:11.:21:14.

the seats were offered to

:21:15.:21:15.

Jeremy and we were very grateful for them.

:21:16.:21:17.

This footage is of Mr Corbyn shortly into

:21:18.:21:20.

the journey, from before he recorded the video.

:21:21.:21:23.

Virgin said the seats are empty and unreserved.

:21:24.:21:25.

There appear to be lots of empty, unreserved seats in that

:21:26.:21:31.

And that's right at the beginning of the journey.

:21:32.:21:34.

Yes, so we walked through and I think what isn't clear

:21:35.:21:38.

in the photo is the fact that there are people

:21:39.:21:40.

children sitting on the seats, or luggage on the seats.

:21:41.:21:44.

I mean, as we walked through, all of the

:21:45.:21:46.

carriages, there weren't any places for us to sit down.

:21:47.:21:48.

You may ask whether this sort of thing is really

:21:49.:21:51.

But it's important to remember that sadly, most people in

:21:52.:21:54.

Most voters aren't that interested in the minutiae of policy discussion

:21:55.:21:59.

A simple story that speaks to the character of

:22:00.:22:13.

senior politicians is one that really gets cut through can

:22:14.:22:16.

Michael Foote's so-called donkey jacket worn at

:22:17.:22:18.

the Cenotaph was of no real importance.

:22:19.:22:20.

But people with concerns about his patriotism saw it as a

:22:21.:22:23.

Ten years ago, the discovery that David Cameron cycled to work

:22:24.:22:26.

followed by a chauffeur carrying his stuff got

:22:27.:22:28.

amazing cut through, because it spoke to concerns he

:22:29.:22:31.

Might the Virgin Trains video saga be Mr

:22:32.:22:35.

Does it speak strongly to his weaknesses?

:22:36.:22:41.

Jeremy Corbyn is certainly trusted among his

:22:42.:22:43.

supporters, but among the

:22:44.:22:44.

general public, that level of trust is not nearly as high.

:22:45.:22:47.

And so an event such as this where his honesty

:22:48.:22:49.

is called into question certainly could have an impact.

:22:50.:22:55.

My suspicion is though that the timing means that

:22:56.:22:57.

among his supporters this will be seen as yet another attack.

:22:58.:23:00.

And among the general public they probably won't pay too much

:23:01.:23:03.

Well, Mr Corbyn's team is sensitive about

:23:04.:23:06.

It does seem strange that the timing of

:23:07.:23:14.

Richard Branson and Virgin to release these images and kind of

:23:15.:23:17.

present a slightly skewed version of events,

:23:18.:23:18.

that they've chosen now as

:23:19.:23:19.

Mr Corbyn is still likely to retain the leadership.

:23:20.:23:25.

Rather appropriately, his supporters point

:23:26.:23:27.

to a lack of empty seats at rallies as a measure of his support.

:23:28.:23:32.

Joining me now are Matt Laza, former broadcast media advisor

:23:33.:23:35.

to Ed Miliband and now director of the thinktank Policy Network.

:23:36.:23:39.

And Debora Mattinson who used to be a pollster for Gordon Brown and now

:23:40.:23:42.

What do you think the truth is? You can see the photographs. They are

:23:43.:23:57.

there to see. Unless Virgin has issued photographs and somehow

:23:58.:24:00.

superimposed Jeremy Corbyn in that carriage. They could be very small

:24:01.:24:07.

people we could not see. I think this is difficult to talk your way

:24:08.:24:12.

out you need a better witness than someone who is a member of his

:24:13.:24:21.

staff. There are conspiracy theories which the Jeremy Corbyn camp are not

:24:22.:24:25.

unfamiliar with, but cannot explain this away. Now does it matter, is it

:24:26.:24:30.

like David Cameron with the car behind him? I think it is more like

:24:31.:24:38.

the David Cameron with his shoes in the limo. I remember that vividly.

:24:39.:24:46.

The incident happened and in focus group situations months afterwards

:24:47.:24:50.

people talked about it it struck a chord. Because David Cameron have

:24:51.:24:55.

carefully positioned himself as an eco-warrior and then suddenly, doing

:24:56.:24:59.

this and the story unravelling, it just aren't picked that position.

:25:00.:25:07.

And everyone got it. And we become a month later they still talked about

:25:08.:25:11.

it. I think this could just be the same. This is the man who is

:25:12.:25:17.

straight talking, honest politics, he put himself above all of those

:25:18.:25:22.

tacky photo opportunities and media games. And yet here he is. Neither

:25:23.:25:28.

of them Jeremy Corbyn fans, in particular, but I can see you

:25:29.:25:37.

nodding. Where it does matter, die-hard Jeremy Corbyn fans will see

:25:38.:25:41.

this as just another mainstream media attack on him. Tomorrow we

:25:42.:25:47.

will find out which former Blairites work for the media agency for

:25:48.:25:53.

Virgin. But it does matter, he is trying to be holier than thou, and

:25:54.:26:02.

the late Michael Meacher once was caught out trying to say he had a

:26:03.:26:18.

dozen houses, and that is all people remembered about him. If you're

:26:19.:26:22.

going to be straight talking and you claim that the train is empty, your

:26:23.:26:31.

court red-handed. It is less about authenticity, I think that is a

:26:32.:26:37.

subset of integrity. And we look at what matters for leadership and

:26:38.:26:42.

being a good communicator, having integrity and being decisive other

:26:43.:26:47.

things that stand out. I think integrity, this is it. Would you

:26:48.:26:52.

have let this happen when you were running around with Ed Miliband? We

:26:53.:26:57.

all know that you play tricks, to make a point about trains for

:26:58.:27:02.

example. His point, even Virgin conceded that they need more trains

:27:03.:27:07.

on that line. So this is his bigger point in a way. But it needs to have

:27:08.:27:11.

a factual basis. I go up and down quite frequently on Virgin Trains.

:27:12.:27:17.

If they thought Labour was going to win, they would not have released

:27:18.:27:23.

this. The idea that you pick a fight with the Leader of the Opposition at

:27:24.:27:27.

any other point, frankly, in 50 years of political history and that

:27:28.:27:32.

is an important point. Labour Party supporters should realise that the

:27:33.:27:36.

party is not being taken seriously. It could just be, the Jeremy Corbyn

:27:37.:27:43.

narrative begs to differ, that this is the company and we are saying

:27:44.:27:48.

they're going to nationalise the railways. If they thought that they

:27:49.:27:52.

were going to do it then Virgin would be scared and Richard Branson

:27:53.:28:00.

would be sending out sarcastic text. With Ed Miliband, authenticity did

:28:01.:28:06.

matter to him. He spent 18 months of his childhood in Leeds. And I got so

:28:07.:28:13.

many phone calls from this building saying please take him to that

:28:14.:28:17.

school. And he said he would not pretend to be an authentic

:28:18.:28:21.

Yorkshireman. And that is what Jeremy Corbyn has not quite realised

:28:22.:28:27.

and it shows that the operation is amateur, you would have checked what

:28:28.:28:30.

was going on before releasing the video. What about authenticity, is

:28:31.:28:35.

that what the public really want or do they want competent politicians?

:28:36.:28:43.

They do want of setting politicians. -- authentic politicians. And once

:28:44.:28:47.

you believe what they believe. If you are authentic, and your views

:28:48.:28:51.

are different from the public, then actually they will not vote for you.

:28:52.:28:54.

If they just wanted authenticity then Jeremy Corbyn, his ratings

:28:55.:28:59.

would be screaming and they're not, they are the worst of any leader of

:29:00.:29:04.

a political party since polling began. So I do not think so, it is

:29:05.:29:07.

not enough. Thank you both. Two months ago today,

:29:08.:29:10.

Britain voted to leave the EU. Our business editor Helen Thomas

:29:11.:29:13.

has been taking stock. And remember what was

:29:14.:29:18.

meant to happen next? Mortgages will get more expensive

:29:19.:29:25.

and mortgage rates will go up. More worried now, much more worried,

:29:26.:29:29.

than I was in 2008. So why would we take

:29:30.:29:33.

a leap in the dark? So, has the economic reality lived

:29:34.:29:37.

of years of uncertainty? As the first hard data on the state

:29:38.:29:48.

of the economy is rolled in, Last week, retail sales figures

:29:49.:30:05.

for July showed spending up 5.9% One measure of unemployment,

:30:06.:30:09.

the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance,

:30:10.:30:12.

fell by 8,600 in July, And today, a survey

:30:13.:30:13.

by the Confederation of British Industry found

:30:14.:30:18.

that the sharp drop in the pound was helping export orders,

:30:19.:30:21.

boosting UK manufacturing. I think Project Fear actually

:30:22.:30:24.

looks quite ludicrous. Because a lot of the very lurid

:30:25.:30:33.

claims that we had from August bodies like the Treasury or the Bank

:30:34.:30:36.

of England or the IMF or the OECD, they're all coming up with all kinds

:30:37.:30:39.

of weird and wonderful predictions of calamity,

:30:40.:30:42.

based on their economic models. Which were broadly

:30:43.:30:44.

bogus, in my opinion. The weaker pound may

:30:45.:30:46.

also be helping. There was a near 20%

:30:47.:30:53.

increase in tourism in July. Well, lo and behold,

:30:54.:30:57.

tourists don't walk around So all the data from outfits

:30:58.:30:59.

like Visa or people who sell Swiss watches or luxury items,

:31:00.:31:07.

we've got a tourist boom going on. I don't think it's a one-month

:31:08.:31:09.

wonder. Forecasts for UK growth

:31:10.:31:11.

have been slashed. Confidence took a hit

:31:12.:31:15.

after the vote. And surveys of business activity

:31:16.:31:18.

plummeted to the lowest That rattled the Bank of England

:31:19.:31:21.

enough to unveil an aggressive package of measures

:31:22.:31:31.

to boost the economy. An overreaction, or is the bank,

:31:32.:31:33.

like others, waiting for important I think the really key area

:31:34.:31:35.

where heightened uncertainty after this vote is going to affect

:31:36.:31:41.

the UK is business investment. It's in house-building,

:31:42.:31:45.

it's in construction. And we don't have any

:31:46.:31:47.

hard data on that yet. We're not going to get

:31:48.:31:53.

it until next month. But that, for me, is going

:31:54.:31:55.

to be really important. What happens to the construction

:31:56.:31:58.

sector, especially, what happens We're talking into the autumn

:31:59.:32:00.

for that. The trouble is that this early data

:32:01.:32:05.

is inevitably ambiguous. Does one strong month of retail

:32:06.:32:09.

sales reflect robust consumer confidence,

:32:10.:32:12.

or just some sunny weather? The risk of an acute economic shock

:32:13.:32:16.

seems to have passed. But whether it's slow burn damage

:32:17.:32:21.

is being done to the UK That might depend on the longer term

:32:22.:32:24.

effects of a weak pound. Do rising prices start to hurt

:32:25.:32:29.

people's spending power? It also relies on what

:32:30.:32:34.

the Government does next. Peak risk sits probably six to 12

:32:35.:32:40.

months after the the The reason I say that is in

:32:41.:32:42.

the short term, the quick action by the Bank of England

:32:43.:32:50.

and the collapse in sterling has provided a bit of a stimulus

:32:51.:32:53.

to the UK economy. But once you start to get a specific

:32:54.:32:55.

steer from the Government, what type of Brexit it will pursue,

:32:56.:32:58.

you move towards a situation where firms are making clear

:32:59.:33:01.

decisions on their future and some of the trade-offs that inevitably

:33:02.:33:04.

come from withdrawing from the European Union,

:33:05.:33:06.

the rubber starts to hit Consumers so far remained unfazed,

:33:07.:33:08.

but business appears more skittish. Whether that is a passing hit

:33:09.:33:16.

or the start of a lasting investment freeze could determine

:33:17.:33:19.

whether the UK economy has been left It's only two days since our last

:33:20.:33:22.

Olympic medal, but a lot of people Daytime TV just isn't

:33:23.:33:37.

the same in the 206 weeks But the more serious

:33:38.:33:40.

post-games adjustment is not the one that affects us,

:33:41.:33:43.

it's the one that affects Their job is to give it

:33:44.:33:46.

all in the run-up to the Games, You might have heard Jason Kenny

:33:47.:33:53.

and Laura Trott talk of the post-race blues,

:33:54.:33:59.

on Radio 4 this morning. Well, someone who has been

:34:00.:34:01.

through it is swimmer Karen She was four times World champion,

:34:02.:34:03.

broke two world Records and competed at four consecutive Olympic Games,

:34:04.:34:07.

starting at Barcelona in 1992. Very good evening. Just described to

:34:08.:34:14.

us the feeling come-down that come-down that you get. Well, you've

:34:15.:34:19.

trained for something. Along, you put your heart and soul, your whole

:34:20.:34:23.

focus, you've been very selfish and driven, aiming towards one goal. And

:34:24.:34:29.

in a flash it is all over. And suddenly you don't have that

:34:30.:34:32.

structure, you don't have the same aims and goals. You are suddenly

:34:33.:34:36.

feeling a bit aimless and quite lost. You've been on a high with

:34:37.:34:41.

other team members and you kind of go back to reality. How long does it

:34:42.:34:46.

take for you to start training again after one championship, one event,

:34:47.:34:51.

start thinking about the next one? For everyone it is different. It

:34:52.:34:54.

depends where you are in your career. Young athletes will probably

:34:55.:34:59.

be chomping at the bit to get back at it and some of the more

:35:00.:35:02.

experienced athletes will actually take a bit of time, some even up to

:35:03.:35:06.

a year to decide if they're going to do another cycle. Actually it

:35:07.:35:09.

doesn't really matter whether you've been successful or not, the

:35:10.:35:16.

come-down after that major championship, after you've gone and

:35:17.:35:20.

done what you wanted to do or not, the come-down after it is

:35:21.:35:24.

significant. The really big precipice is for those who have just

:35:25.:35:28.

done their last Olympics, their last big contest, right? The end of the

:35:29.:35:33.

Korea, that must be an enormous adjustment? It really is and I think

:35:34.:35:38.

there is probable you more of an understanding of the retirement and

:35:39.:35:41.

that sort of process that athletes need to go through and work on

:35:42.:35:45.

careers afterwards but also their mental health afterwards and there

:35:46.:35:51.

real change. It's not just a job, it's a lifestyle, a way of life,

:35:52.:35:56.

being an athlete. You lose a whole identity. I think there is

:35:57.:35:59.

understanding of that but actually there is less understanding of an

:36:00.:36:01.

athlete who is an Olympic champion, who comes back and everyone thinks

:36:02.:36:06.

they've got the world at their feet, they are starting a fantastic career

:36:07.:36:10.

and they can't understand that actually there are all these things

:36:11.:36:13.

going on in their mind and they can't get a grip again, they don't

:36:14.:36:17.

have that fight. Everyone is looking at them thinking you should be

:36:18.:36:21.

really happy, you had it all, and they can't reconcile that. How

:36:22.:36:27.

serious can that get? Do people get depressed, I mean properly

:36:28.:36:30.

depressed? Do they just go through the blues? Does it get very serious?

:36:31.:36:35.

It can be very serious. For some people it is just a bit of blues, a

:36:36.:36:39.

bit of adjusting to having to do their own washing and cook their own

:36:40.:36:42.

meals and start over again, but for other people can become something

:36:43.:36:46.

quite serious. There is an American swim, Alison Schmidt, who has been

:36:47.:36:50.

very vocal about it just recently. She was a five-time medallist in

:36:51.:36:55.

London and she was really suffering and felt suicidal at times after and

:36:56.:37:01.

has really struggled in the last few years. She made it to Rio,

:37:02.:37:06.

fortunately, but she's had a really tough time of it and she is now

:37:07.:37:10.

speaking out about it and I'm sure she's not the only one. What do you

:37:11.:37:14.

do about it? What support is there and what kind of backing do the

:37:15.:37:18.

athletes get? Do people think about their mental health as well as their

:37:19.:37:22.

physical? I think people are starting to because you realise how

:37:23.:37:31.

-- how strong the mind is. It's starting to be more understood. I

:37:32.:37:34.

think in some ways athletes who don't perform well I helped more

:37:35.:37:39.

because people expect them to be sent and needing some support. I

:37:40.:37:44.

think the key thing is actually the home coaches need to see the signs.

:37:45.:37:47.

When they go back to their programmes, maybe not having the

:37:48.:37:53.

same personalities, not driven in the same way, something is not quite

:37:54.:37:59.

right, that is where the help can come for them. If friends and family

:38:00.:38:05.

of the athletes notice a change, they can get in early and catch it

:38:06.:38:09.

before it becomes something really serious. Karen Pickering, thanks a

:38:10.:38:11.

lot. I'll be back tomorrow,

:38:12.:38:13.

but before we go, the second in our series of performances

:38:14.:38:16.

from artists appearing Tonight, we're sticking

:38:17.:38:18.

to the Brazilian theme, because we have the Sao Paulo Jazz

:38:19.:38:21.

Symphony Orchestra, who will be performing in tomorrow's late night

:38:22.:38:24.

Prom at the Royal Albert Hall. You can catch it tomorrow evening

:38:25.:38:26.

at 22:15 on Radio 3.

:38:27.:38:30.

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