Browse content similar to 21/09/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
No world War three, tick. Economy hasn't fallen into a big hole, tick. | :00:08. | :00:19. | |
Bake off still on the box, tick. This Brexit thing seems to be going | :00:20. | :00:23. | |
OK. Except of course, hasn't started yet. The economy appears buoyant, so | :00:24. | :00:29. | |
how much can we read into that? We will try to make sense of the | :00:30. | :00:33. | |
economic signals and see where we are heading. The head of MI6 says | :00:34. | :00:37. | |
they will hack their way to victory as he recruits 1000 new spies. The | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
information revolution fundamentally changes our operating environment. | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
In five years' time there will be two sorts of intelligence services, | :00:49. | :00:51. | |
one that understands this fact and prospers and one that doesn't and | :00:52. | :00:55. | |
hasn't. And Ed Balls is here as the polls close in the Labour leadership | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
election, with Jeremy Corbyn the hottest favourites. Where did it all | :01:01. | :01:01. | |
go wrong? The doom-monger Remainers have been | :01:02. | :01:08. | |
slain, their scares exposed. That view has gained a bit | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
of traction of late, and today we got an official | :01:14. | :01:17. | |
statistical summary of data so far from the Office | :01:18. | :01:19. | |
for National Statistics. And it was ambivalent enough | :01:20. | :01:23. | |
to reassure all sides. Basically, it said - | :01:24. | :01:25. | |
we don't really know But we've got through | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
the first part. There was other news too: | :01:28. | :01:30. | |
an official forecast It cut its UK growth | :01:31. | :01:32. | |
forecast for next year, but nudged it up for this year, | :01:33. | :01:38. | |
and headlines went both ways too. Clearly the world hasn't | :01:39. | :01:42. | |
fallen in, and that raises two questions | :01:43. | :01:43. | |
- big questions. And secondly, does the economics | :01:44. | :01:45. | |
profession have egg on its face for suggesting things | :01:46. | :01:51. | |
might go wrong? No one doubts there were | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
the occasional exaggerations on both In fairness to economists, | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
they were a little more The most talked about warnings came | :02:00. | :02:10. | |
from the Governor of Material slowdown in growth, | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
notable increase in inflation, that's the MPC's | :02:15. | :02:20. | |
judgment, it's a judgment not based It is a judgment not based | :02:21. | :02:23. | |
on a whim, it is a judgment based on rigorous analysis and | :02:24. | :02:28. | |
careful consideration. Of course, there is a range | :02:29. | :02:30. | |
of possible scenarios around Which could possibly | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
include a technical Well, in using the words that he did | :02:34. | :02:36. | |
at the bank behind me, Mr Carney gave the Remain politicians | :02:37. | :02:45. | |
something they could COuld work up into | :02:46. | :02:47. | |
more lurid scenarios. But nothing that has happened | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
since June has made the actual words appear | :02:52. | :02:53. | |
particularly stupid. And for economists more generally, | :02:54. | :02:56. | |
they have had some mood swings, as they so often do, | :02:57. | :02:59. | |
and not just the economists. The first big business survey that | :03:00. | :03:05. | |
came after the With the global financial crisis | :03:06. | :03:07. | |
of 2008, 2009, the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 1998 Asian | :03:08. | :03:19. | |
financial crisis, the difference this time is that it is all entirely | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
home-grown, which suggests the impact could be greater on the UK | :03:23. | :03:25. | |
economy than before. All in all, it's a mixed enough | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
picture for everybody's interpretation to be guided | :03:29. | :03:36. | |
by their preconceptions. So what do we know | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
and what don't we? Look at that edge of | :03:43. | :03:44. | |
the Grand Canyon in the And the pound has not | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
recovered from that But then you can look at things | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
like car production, which So let me tell you why the answer | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
to the question "what is the It is that economists | :03:58. | :04:05. | |
are making one important prediction and that is that | :04:06. | :04:12. | |
companies will hold off investing Why build a new factory if you don't | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
know if you'll be able to sell That is a scary prediction, | :04:16. | :04:21. | |
but it is way too early Economists are saying that business | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
investment will contract next year. 90% of them feel that | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
would be the case. And the average expectation | :04:31. | :04:37. | |
is for a contraction This is quite unusual, | :04:38. | :04:40. | |
it would generally occur in a recession, such as we had | :04:41. | :04:47. | |
in 2009, for example. But this time it is occurring | :04:48. | :04:52. | |
without a recession in GDP So it is a sharp change | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
in an unusual circumstance. We will wait to see | :04:56. | :05:03. | |
what happens next year but the truth is, economies | :05:04. | :05:06. | |
do move quite slowly. Markets move fast, the pound can | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
plummet here in the city in a day but production lines, | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
they chug along, chickens carry on laying eggs, | :05:15. | :05:16. | |
regardless of referendum results. We have little idea | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
yet as to what "Brexit means Brexit" means, | :05:22. | :05:23. | |
what its short-term effects are, let alone | :05:24. | :05:25. | |
the all-important long-term impact. With me now is Linda Yueh, | :05:26. | :05:33. | |
Professor of Economics at London Business School, | :05:34. | :05:34. | |
Chris Giles, who is the Economics Editor | :05:35. | :05:36. | |
at the Financial Times, and Alistair Heath, Deputy Editor | :05:37. | :05:38. | |
of the Daily Telegraph. Alistair, I think you are the most | :05:39. | :05:46. | |
sceptic among the panel. You think the economics profession over egged | :05:47. | :05:53. | |
it and have egg on their faces? Yes, big time. All the hysteria about an | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
immediate recession, a financial collapse, that hasn't materialised | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
and I think it was a mistake for economists to make that kind of | :06:03. | :06:05. | |
prediction or to allow themselves to be portrayed as making that kind of | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
projection. It has damaged their credibility going forward, and that | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
is a problem because we need their assistance when it comes to | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
negotiating the right kind of Brexit, a pro-growth, liberal | :06:20. | :06:22. | |
Brexit. They damaged themselves and went too far. I think what the data | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
to date shows is there was no catastrophe, that this Armageddon | :06:28. | :06:31. | |
situation did not materialise. Linda, speak up for the economists? | :06:32. | :06:36. | |
I think there is some truth to the fact that because this was a | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
referendum that was fiercely argued, I think both cases stated their | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
cases very strongly. Economic is not a science, it is a social science. | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
So the long-term negative effect, that lots of economists predicted is | :06:50. | :06:55. | |
predicated on the UK not having astrometry deal with the EU and the | :06:56. | :06:58. | |
rest of the world, not having the same kind of access to the world's | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
biggest thing this block. But we don't know where that is going to | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
head and the immediate impact, which wasn't emphasised enough, in the | :07:07. | :07:13. | |
short term although this creates economic uncertainty, use and the | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
one thing economists agree on its investment is not on take-off, lots | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
of funds will wait to see, there are some signs of that. The Bank of | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
England report on their business agents around the country said that. | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
But the one thing I want to stress about uncertainty is different for | :07:28. | :07:33. | |
you and me, for other businesses and for consumers. Consumers are much | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
more optimistic, as we have seen in some of the surveys. Businesses are | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
more worried. Eventually the two come together, but just as you and I | :07:42. | :07:46. | |
react to uncertainty differently, there will be mixed reactions to | :07:47. | :07:48. | |
Brexit and the fact we are leaving and I think that point should have | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
been made more clearly. That is all you'll see in the immediate short | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
term, it's only been three months since the vote and we are still in | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
the EU until we are out on the subject of the same trade bills. Do | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
you think the economists over egged it... Mark Carney, said there is a | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
possibility of a technical recession. I think you've got to be | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
very careful. I think Alistair's portrayal of what economists | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
actually said is incorrect. They were much more careful. I think they | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
made in two areas they should hold their hand up and say, actually I | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
don't think we were right about the immediate impact. One was those | :08:26. | :08:29. | |
warnings about a potential financial crisis. That clearly hasn't | :08:30. | :08:34. | |
happened. The second was there was an expectation that sentiment and | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
confidence would disappear and that happened, but it came back much | :08:40. | :08:41. | |
quicker than they thought. Those two things I think they should put their | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
hands up on. With anyone forecasting a financial crisis warning it was a | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
possibility? I think that was entirely correct, it was possible. | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
It didn't happen. If they didn't warn about it we could have been | :08:55. | :09:00. | |
likely wearing 2008 saying, where were these economists, why were they | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
warning about it? I think the way they warned of this and the words | :09:05. | :09:08. | |
they dropped like recession, and some saying the next six quarters | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
there will be three or four negative quarters of growth, I think that | :09:13. | :09:15. | |
contributed to a sense of panic and created a lot of problems. There was | :09:16. | :09:20. | |
a run on some commercial property funds and all sorts of dislocation, | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
which fortunately seems to have abated. I think economists made a | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
mistake and overrate their case, but it says nothing about the long run | :09:29. | :09:31. | |
or the medium run. It doesn't say whether Brexit will a long long run | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
triumph or a damp squid are in the shorter men made a mistake. One | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
thing we do know, on the morning the pound fell, Linda, by 10% or so. We | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
looked at that and said, that is a big fall and it has basically gone | :09:48. | :09:53. | |
back up again. It has just settled at 1.30 against the dollar instead | :09:54. | :09:59. | |
of 1.40 or 1.40 five. The markets react quickly but economies moved | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
slowly, like oil tankers. One reaction to the pound could be we | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
sell more, we buy more from the rest of the world than we sell. Some | :10:09. | :10:11. | |
economists would say that sterling is essentially settling to wear | :10:12. | :10:16. | |
investors think the economy is headed, which as we 40 said, in the | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
medium term it depends a lot on what trade deals we get. But on the whole | :10:22. | :10:26. | |
there is worry, the same worries we had about the British economy before | :10:27. | :10:32. | |
the referendum, trade deficit, low productivity and wages, all those | :10:33. | :10:35. | |
things are still true. Sterling reflects that. What's interesting is | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
the stock market. It fell and then recovered. You saw the OECD and | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
others say what they hadn't figured in their June assessment was the | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
action of the Bank of England, of the Treasury, the fact... With the | :10:49. | :10:55. | |
Bank of England made a big difference? I only use that as an | :10:56. | :11:03. | |
example to say that... I think before class should be like the | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
weather app on your smartphone, if it tells you what happened today | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
it's pretty good. My point is policymakers can change the course | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
of the economy and that's why it's hard. I want to come to investment, | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
do we all do we not believe that companies are holding back on | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
investment, relative to those they might have carried out in the | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
absence of the Brexit to come as a result of the uncertainty Linda | :11:26. | :11:30. | |
spoke about? We do, we don't have a lot of evidence for it is the honest | :11:31. | :11:33. | |
answer. You haven't changed your mind that is one of the potential | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
short-term effects? Yes, the potential short-term cost. You gave | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
evidence economists are still very much in that position, thinking | :11:44. | :11:46. | |
investment is going to fall. Not dramatically, but is going to be | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
lower next year. They thought it was going to be rising. And it hasn't, | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
so they've made a six or 7% difference to the forecast. | :11:56. | :11:58. | |
Forecasts have changed for investment. You would think that is | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
rational, because if there is a huge amount of uncertainty, the | :12:03. | :12:04. | |
government doesn't seem to have much of an idea of what sort of Brexit | :12:05. | :12:08. | |
once, it certainly doesn't want to tell the public it. If you hand have | :12:09. | :12:13. | |
to spend ?304 million, would you do it now or wait a little bit? It is a | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
rational thing to wait. You would agree with that? It is possible, | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
yes. If there is one area affected in the short term it is business | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
investment, because companies... It makes sense he would wait. It's | :12:27. | :12:32. | |
possible, but the fact that 90% of economists are predicting something | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
next year, I not bothered by that because I think the constant | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
consensus among economists keeps changing. Sometimes they get it | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
completely wrong and they are bad at making short or long-term forecasts. | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
But I perfectly except it may be the case. One thing we all agree on if | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
it's too early to say what the long-term impact of Brexit is. Any | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
indication, anything, Linda, that has given you a sense of foreboding | :12:57. | :13:02. | |
or a sense of encouragement, as you've looked at what has happened | :13:03. | :13:06. | |
so far? I think consumer sentiment gives me a sense that quite a lot of | :13:07. | :13:12. | |
people think the future will be better. Economists... It's very | :13:13. | :13:15. | |
difficult to model how that plays out, but obviously consumption is | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
the biggest part of the British economy. One of the hardest things | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
about leading indicators is normally you would look at bond deals but | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
because central banks have injected so much cash and rates are so low, | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
they are not good indicator these days. The long-term interest rates | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
in the markets and government lending have been so low... Yes, | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
usually you would say, wait, actually bond yields, the government | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
interest rates look lower in the future, that means the economy will | :13:46. | :13:49. | |
be weaker because rates have to be cut. That's normally how you would | :13:50. | :13:53. | |
view it. The other indicator is stock prices. The fact stocks | :13:54. | :13:57. | |
reflect how companies feel they are going to be earning in the future, | :13:58. | :14:02. | |
how investors view that, that's normally a leading indicator of how | :14:03. | :14:07. | |
the economy does. I think these surveys are important, and it is | :14:08. | :14:13. | |
important to note because all these investment decisions take a long | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
time to realise. We haven't got much time. I just want to ask about the | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
importance of the argument we've been having and the narrative, | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
crests, that Brexit seems all right. I don't know how many conversations | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
you've had, I'd had a lot in the last few weeks. Do you think that | :14:30. | :14:31. | |
might affect the of Having quite a good period now or a | :14:32. | :14:41. | |
reasonable period is paradoxically quite bad for the long-term records | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
of gives us a sense of superiority, we are great, this is what we felt | :14:47. | :14:50. | |
after the Second World War, we don't need to join in with other | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
countries, we can do Brexit all along, let's do it straightaway. | :14:55. | :14:59. | |
These would be the worst sort of decisions we could take and | :15:00. | :15:02. | |
paradoxically, the fact that things have been slightly better than we | :15:03. | :15:06. | |
might have expected might make it worse in the long run. What do you | :15:07. | :15:12. | |
say to that? I think there is the possibility of that but I think that | :15:13. | :15:18. | |
if you look at what Eurosceptics believe, they believed in this Nike | :15:19. | :15:30. | |
swish, some transitionary period and then a stronger economy and so on so | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
I think people have always expected it to be so so it is about the | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
detail and we don't know what the government was today but we have | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
ahead, they seem to want to restrict immigration, and that probably means | :15:45. | :15:50. | |
they will not want a hard Brexit rather than soft. We will know | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
before long. Thank you all very much. -- | :15:56. | :15:58. | |
Austerity may be choking local government, -- | :15:59. | :15:59. | |
one part of the public sector that is not in retreat. | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
It's MI6, the secret intelligent service. | :16:04. | :16:04. | |
Newsnight has learned that it is on a recruitment | :16:05. | :16:06. | |
drive, and is looking for a thousand extra staff. | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
You're better off applying if you know something | :16:10. | :16:11. | |
about the internet, as it's technology that is making the job | :16:12. | :16:13. | |
of MI6 so much harder, and driving the demand. | :16:14. | :16:15. | |
Our diplomatic editor, Mark Urban explains. | :16:16. | :16:30. | |
in an age when people live so much of their lives online, how can you | :16:31. | :16:37. | |
create convincing false identities? And how do you stop our intelligence | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
service from using facial recognition to find out the real | :16:44. | :16:50. | |
identities of your operatives? MI6 has argued it needs more people to | :16:51. | :16:56. | |
create aliases and cover its tracks. It currently has 2500 staff but | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
Newsnight has established this is set to grow by 40% took nearly 3500 | :17:02. | :17:09. | |
by 2020. Last year the government announced the agencies would get | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
1900 more people. Newsnight has established that MI6 will get most | :17:16. | :17:23. | |
of that and MI5, currently 4000, and GCHQ at 5600 receiving smaller | :17:24. | :17:28. | |
increases. Although the service has not yet publicly confirmed the scale | :17:29. | :17:33. | |
of its increase, the MI6 chief, and a rare public appearance yesterday, | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
acknowledged the size of the challenge posed by the internet. The | :17:38. | :17:45. | |
information revolution fundamentally changes or operating environment. I | :17:46. | :17:48. | |
would go further to say that in five years' time there will be two sort | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
of intelligence services, those that understand this factor and those | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
that don't and not. I am determined that MI6 will be in the former | :18:00. | :18:05. | |
category. How exactly has the internet change things? The killing | :18:06. | :18:09. | |
of a Palestinian militant in Dubai in 2010 gives some close. Using CCTV | :18:10. | :18:16. | |
and passport details, it took only a few days to point the finger at his | :18:17. | :18:21. | |
-- is really intelligence. They cloned the passports of people who | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
had visited Israel were left there. Why? Because completely fake | :18:27. | :18:29. | |
identities are not easily discovered. But as they should, bad | :18:30. | :18:37. | |
fakes are not much harder to find with governments and even insurgent | :18:38. | :18:43. | |
groups, able to deploy advanced techniques. Our opponents, | :18:44. | :18:49. | |
unrestrained by considerations of lawfulness or proportionality, can | :18:50. | :18:52. | |
use these capabilities to gain visibility of our activities, which | :18:53. | :18:55. | |
means we have to completely change the way that we do stuff. And then | :18:56. | :19:01. | |
there is rapid advance of facial recognition technology. For example, | :19:02. | :19:06. | |
a photo of John Smith, arriving at an airport somewhere as a vacuum | :19:07. | :19:13. | |
cleaner sales rep, can now be the first searched. It might reveal | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
someone of an entirely different name several years earlier | :19:19. | :19:21. | |
celebrating their recruitment to the foreign office on Facebook. Of | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
course, these techniques can put plenty of aces into the hands of | :19:27. | :19:30. | |
British espionage also. But the agencies have convinced Whitehall | :19:31. | :19:36. | |
that post Snowdon, cooperation with the big service providers and | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
technology firms has taken a knock. To the extent that those revelations | :19:41. | :19:43. | |
damaged and undermines the trust that needs to exist, I think it is | :19:44. | :19:49. | |
highly problematic. Now the agency has to recruit almost 1000 new | :19:50. | :19:53. | |
people to establish more elaborate aliases, sweep up Bridge of Spies | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
online identities and exploit the options to gather more intelligence | :20:00. | :20:04. | |
through the internet. And on civil service pay, finding so many new | :20:05. | :20:06. | |
people could be quite a challenge. Markers of me. How quickly has those | :20:07. | :20:16. | |
caught up? George Osborne talked about expanding the intelligence | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
services? There were two statements last year, one about 1000 new spies | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
and one about 1900 in the strategic defence review and both referred to | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
the top agencies, including GCHQ, the security service and buy some | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
aspects even of police intelligence as well but we know that 1000 will | :20:35. | :20:41. | |
go just to MI6, so forget the numbers going to those other | :20:42. | :20:47. | |
agencies, which on their terms is a famous bureaucratic victory. And a | :20:48. | :20:50. | |
pretty substantial growth. It is 40%. Is it technology driving that | :20:51. | :20:58. | |
order they just want extra people? That is very important and it is | :20:59. | :21:03. | |
fascinating, yesterday, to hear the chief making those arguments | :21:04. | :21:05. | |
publicly without going into the details of how much they are going | :21:06. | :21:12. | |
to get. They are comfortable talking about two there are three key | :21:13. | :21:15. | |
missions. As they involve counterterrorism, cyber security | :21:16. | :21:18. | |
and, in those areas, this is the key, this type of thing. The other | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
area which they term more generically strategic advantage, | :21:25. | :21:26. | |
that is more interesting, the traditional business of spying, in | :21:27. | :21:32. | |
support of the UK's diplomatic position and all of this was agreed | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
before Brexit but if you wish to say that we still punch above our weight | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
in the world, and to find out the detail of those other European | :21:42. | :21:46. | |
countries' positions on this negotiation, it would be useful to | :21:47. | :21:48. | |
have this extra resources. Thank you. | :21:49. | :21:52. | |
For the world community, or most of it, the Syrian government | :21:53. | :21:54. | |
and Russia are between them responsible for atrocities that | :21:55. | :21:56. | |
In addition to the targeting of an aid convoy on Monday, | :21:57. | :22:00. | |
there were more deaths of those trying to help people yesterday, | :22:01. | :22:03. | |
Well, when it comes to Syria we know our position, | :22:04. | :22:06. | |
we know the American position, the Russian position too. | :22:07. | :22:08. | |
But what do self-respecting Syrian government supporters say | :22:09. | :22:11. | |
about the things that are occurring in their country? | :22:12. | :22:14. | |
Earlier I spoke to Bouthaina Shaaban. | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
A spokesperson for the Syrian government. | :22:21. | :22:23. | |
I believe that nobody knows for sure what happened but what is certain | :22:24. | :22:29. | |
is that neither the Syrians nor the Russians have any interest | :22:30. | :22:34. | |
in targeting the humanitarian convoy when we are trying our best to make | :22:35. | :22:38. | |
humanitarian assistance reach everywhere in that country. | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
But it is unlikely the rebels would want to attack a convoy | :22:44. | :22:46. | |
There are Russian planes, there were Russian planes, | :22:47. | :22:53. | |
two Russian warplanes in the sky at the time. | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
The Russians have just released pictures of the convoy | :22:59. | :23:08. | |
that was protected by artillery and they have just said, the UN, | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
that there was an American drone who was accompanying the convoy. | :23:13. | :23:18. | |
So as you said, there are many statements about what happened | :23:19. | :23:22. | |
but the one certain thing is that the convoy was in an area | :23:23. | :23:29. | |
Neither nor the Syrians or Russians were anywhere near the area | :23:30. | :23:43. | |
You know, also, I would like to remind you that for the last | :23:44. | :23:49. | |
week that terrorists in Idlib were announcing in full | :23:50. | :23:51. | |
mouth that they would not adhere to the truce agreed | :23:52. | :23:58. | |
upon by the Russians and the Americans and it was | :23:59. | :24:01. | |
said that they were going to burn any convoy that comes | :24:02. | :24:03. | |
Do you think the bombing, deliberate bombing or | :24:04. | :24:11. | |
attack on a Red Cross convoy is a war crime? | :24:12. | :24:13. | |
Because many people are saying that this looks really | :24:14. | :24:15. | |
They think your side is guilty of it. | :24:16. | :24:19. | |
I think the logical thing would have been for the Russians and | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
the Americans to try to investigate, do a proper investigation, | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
instead of circulating concepts and assumptions. | :24:28. | :24:35. | |
Do you think the Syrian government can win the war that is currently | :24:36. | :24:38. | |
Do you know how we can win the war in our country? | :24:39. | :24:44. | |
By stopping this war and by stopping the bloodshed in our country. | :24:45. | :24:49. | |
We are absolutely devastated every day because of this war. | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
It is a war that has been imposed on us, it is a war that has been | :24:56. | :25:02. | |
brought to our people, to destroy our people | :25:03. | :25:04. | |
I know, but what I want to ask is, do you think you can win the war? | :25:05. | :25:10. | |
We're all thinking about ways in which this war, which has gone | :25:11. | :25:13. | |
We don't want it to be like the Lebanese civil war, | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
President Assad is not thinking about himself, | :25:18. | :25:27. | |
he is thinking about Syria and about the Syrian people. | :25:28. | :25:36. | |
It is our institutions, our schools, our army that has been destroyed. | :25:37. | :25:38. | |
We want to stop this war, we want to stop the bloodshed. | :25:39. | :25:41. | |
There are over 30,000 terrorists and mercenaries who have | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
been brought to Syria, they are butchering our people. | :25:47. | :25:49. | |
The West keeps calling it a civil war, it is not a civil war. | :25:50. | :26:00. | |
I understand the way you want to frame the war is not | :26:01. | :26:03. | |
I understand that you want to say it is bad foreigners | :26:04. | :26:09. | |
We know that the war is a bit more complicated than that, | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
which is why we persist in calling it a Civil War, even though, | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
of course, lots of foreign powers are at fault. | :26:17. | :26:18. | |
Let me just ask you about more immediate issues. | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
Do you think, is the Syrian government position that there | :26:23. | :26:24. | |
There was not a single gunshot in which the Syrian government | :26:25. | :26:28. | |
refused to cooperate with the Russians and the Americans | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
It is those terrorists who at every single juncture refused to adhere | :26:33. | :26:40. | |
And yet we don't see the West pointing fingers at the terrorists. | :26:41. | :26:45. | |
We see the West pointing fingers at the Syrian government. | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
The Syrian government is the one who looks like the West, | :26:49. | :26:59. | |
it is not the terrorists who look like the West. | :27:00. | :27:01. | |
I could explain why but I'm not going to because we don't have time. | :27:02. | :27:04. | |
The suggestion from the Americans is that there may be some kind | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
of no-fly zone over large parts of Syria, northern Syria. | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
Could you, Syria, agree to the idea of a no-fly zone as part | :27:14. | :27:17. | |
Because a no-fly zone is a huge violation of our sovereignty. | :27:18. | :27:24. | |
Do you think the Syrian government, as you look back over the last five | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
years, what mistake, what is the biggest mistake | :27:29. | :27:30. | |
Is it not having conceded to the demonstrators early | :27:31. | :27:35. | |
Is it the barrel bombing or the chlorine gas? | :27:36. | :27:42. | |
Is it not having come to the negotiating table earlier? | :27:43. | :27:45. | |
What do you see as the biggest mistake your side has made or do | :27:46. | :27:48. | |
you think you have made no mistakes at all, it is only everybody else | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
Unfortunately, I come here and I take my time out in order | :27:53. | :28:02. | |
to address you and your respectable audience and all I get is accusatory | :28:03. | :28:06. | |
questions that are taken from a media that has taken | :28:07. | :28:09. | |
Everyone speaks about barrel bombs and chlorine and nobody accepts, | :28:10. | :28:16. | |
to come to the country and see exactly what is going on. | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
We actually do have people, the BBC sends people to Syria | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
Can I ask when you were last outside Damascus, just out of interest? | :28:23. | :28:27. | |
Because it must be quite difficult to travel. | :28:28. | :28:31. | |
When were you last able to get to Aleppo, for example? | :28:32. | :28:34. | |
Personally, I haven't been travelling to Aleppo | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
but there are many people from Aleppo who are coming | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
here and from here who are going to Aleppo and who are | :28:43. | :28:45. | |
So we are all a bit reliant on second-hand reports. | :28:46. | :28:51. | |
Thank you very much for talking to us. | :28:52. | :28:53. | |
Theresa May is facing a bit of criticism from supporters | :28:54. | :29:04. | |
of David Cameron for dismantling his legacy - with the return of grammar | :29:05. | :29:07. | |
schools and the very public sacking of George Osborne. | :29:08. | :29:09. | |
But Newsnight has learnt that she is not holding back | :29:10. | :29:12. | |
and is preparing changes to how the Conservative party is run | :29:13. | :29:14. | |
Nick Watt is with me. What have you learned? Newsnight understands that | :29:15. | :29:30. | |
a race me is taking a very hard look at how the Conservative party raises | :29:31. | :29:35. | |
money and the signals that sends out. I understand that in her sights | :29:36. | :29:40. | |
is the annual Black and white party for the party, this takes place | :29:41. | :29:44. | |
every February, lots of champagne, they got into trouble if you years | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
ago when the auction and an internship, not sending out the | :29:48. | :29:51. | |
right signal! No decisions have been made about dumping the name but I | :29:52. | :29:55. | |
think the feeling is that they need to do this differently and there is | :29:56. | :30:07. | |
talk about how maybe you could have a series of parties outside London. | :30:08. | :30:09. | |
I think that Theresa May thinks that sort of event really does not sound | :30:10. | :30:12. | |
very good signal, does not fit in with their mission. To champion the | :30:13. | :30:14. | |
struggling middle classes. And I understand from Downing Street that | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
she is thinking of taking quite a look at how wider fundraising, is | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
applied to be so reliant on hedge funds and also looking at imposing | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
that ?50,000 cap on individual donations. The Labour Party will not | :30:26. | :30:28. | |
like that, they say that will be hostile because that would harm | :30:29. | :30:29. | |
their trade union donations. Do you feel you're getting a picture | :30:30. | :30:37. | |
of Theresa May, the Prime Minister and what she will be like? She made | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
her name in 2002 when she said there was a danger the Conservative Party | :30:43. | :30:45. | |
could look like the nasty party. She clearly thinks it looks like the | :30:46. | :30:49. | |
elitist party wants to move away from that. It also shows how she | :30:50. | :30:53. | |
wants to run the Conservative Party very differently. Patrick McLachlan, | :30:54. | :30:57. | |
the party chairman has gone back to the traditional role, he sits in the | :30:58. | :31:02. | |
Cabinet in the Woakes Cecil Parkinson did under Margaret | :31:03. | :31:11. | |
Thatcher and he does the two bits, runs the machinery century, out in | :31:12. | :31:13. | |
the country. She wants to get away from the split role when the | :31:14. | :31:15. | |
fundraising was done by Andrew Feldman, David Cameron's big body. | :31:16. | :31:18. | |
She wants to get away from that but there murmurings maybe she does need | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
to realise that money does need to be raised and there are some | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
concerns among Tories that know about fundraising who say, watch | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
out, you need to be careful, we do need to raise money. Nick, thank | :31:31. | :31:31. | |
you. The voting is over in Labour's | :31:32. | :31:32. | |
leadership election. The results will not be counted | :31:33. | :31:34. | |
as quickly as a vote on Strictly. We have to wait to Saturday, | :31:35. | :31:37. | |
but hey, you know who's One person who was a leadership | :31:38. | :31:40. | |
candidate himself once, but whose career has had some | :31:41. | :31:44. | |
interesting turns since, One time sidekick to Gordon Brown, | :31:45. | :31:47. | |
then a job in the Cabinet, Shadow Chancellor, | :31:48. | :31:50. | |
he has been around. A very good evening to you. Thank | :31:51. | :32:01. | |
you for coming in. Good to be here. How bad is it that Jeremy Corbyn is | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
going to win the Labour Party, do you think? I think the country needs | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
a strong opposition that can be a credible party of government. At the | :32:10. | :32:12. | |
moment the verdict of the voters is the Labour Party is not a credible | :32:13. | :32:17. | |
party of government. I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn has brought in new | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
members, he might win the leadership election among the new members and | :32:22. | :32:25. | |
members of the Labour Party, but the issue is, what does the country say? | :32:26. | :32:29. | |
If Jeremy had succeeded in a great boost in the opinion polls, that | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
would be different, but I'm afraid at the moment the verdict of people | :32:34. | :32:42. | |
in marginal seat is they don't feel that Labour at the moment is | :32:43. | :32:45. | |
speaking for them. Until that changes, I'm afraid Labour will be a | :32:46. | :32:47. | |
party of opposition and that's not good enough, we should be a party of | :32:48. | :32:50. | |
government. What you think went wrong with the Owen Smith campaign? | :32:51. | :32:54. | |
Is it about him, the candidate, the pitch? What happened? Clearly the | :32:55. | :32:59. | |
membership of the Labour Party has changed very substantially over the | :33:00. | :33:03. | |
last year and a half. Jeremy Corbyn is clearly speaking for, in touch | :33:04. | :33:09. | |
with the members of the Labour Party, it seems, because they are | :33:10. | :33:12. | |
voting for him in large numbers. Owen Smith was almost the outsider, | :33:13. | :33:17. | |
challenging the incumbent. The problem is, in a democracy it is not | :33:18. | :33:22. | |
the members of the party who elect the government, it's the voters. I | :33:23. | :33:26. | |
don't remember a time where the Labour Party membership and its | :33:27. | :33:30. | |
views had become so disconnected from where the marginal seat, the | :33:31. | :33:36. | |
swing voter, the centre-left vote is an issue after issue, things are | :33:37. | :33:40. | |
pulled apart. To be fair to Jeremy, if he wins, he is winning because he | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
speaking for his members. The failure, and you are part of this | :33:46. | :33:48. | |
scum and new Labour is part of this, the failure is, is it not, that your | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
site, Owen Smith and your clan have not managed to grip 500,000 people | :33:54. | :34:01. | |
in the same way Jeremy Corbyn did? Jeremy Corbyn has mobilised and | :34:02. | :34:07. | |
infused a lot of people and for some reason the other wing of the party | :34:08. | :34:13. | |
just can't? What's wrong? In this world, where numbers are being | :34:14. | :34:16. | |
recruited on the mentorship has grown, the only answer in the end, | :34:17. | :34:22. | |
for the centrist mainstream centre-left of the Labour Party, is | :34:23. | :34:27. | |
to do the same. But in the end, I know from general elections and how | :34:28. | :34:31. | |
you win, you have to have a compelling vision, which people | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
think reflects their view of the world. Jeremy clearly has a complete | :34:36. | :34:39. | |
vision that represents members views and I think Owen has been saying, I | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
sort of share your views, but I'm not Jeremy Tilse I don't think in | :34:46. | :34:48. | |
the end that will work. Labour is going to have to say, or the PLP, | :34:49. | :34:54. | |
the mainstream Labour MPs are going to have to say, we have a view of | :34:55. | :34:58. | |
the world which is not the same as the Conservatives, not the same as | :34:59. | :35:01. | |
new Labour but also not the same as Jeremy Corbyn's... He didn't define | :35:02. | :35:07. | |
himself enough? I think it is very difficult for Owen when you have | :35:08. | :35:13. | |
such a short campaign, to do that. I think he chose not to do that. Chose | :35:14. | :35:18. | |
to be as close to Jeremy as he could be, that's not going to work. Look | :35:19. | :35:25. | |
back to when Labour was in power. Somehow, at some point, now you look | :35:26. | :35:28. | |
back on it looks as though there was a bit of a wedge between traditional | :35:29. | :35:32. | |
Labour voters and the new Labour project. A lot of them went to Ukip, | :35:33. | :35:39. | |
some went to Jeremy Corbyn, who is not New Labour at all. Is that a | :35:40. | :35:48. | |
single thing, is it about the immigration, the polls in 2004, | :35:49. | :35:53. | |
2005, when we had unrestricted immigration and no one else in | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
Europe did? Is it about the crash? What do you think whether one or two | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
things that led to that? I don't think it's one thing and I think in | :36:02. | :36:04. | |
some ways the problem started earlier than that. 1997, Labour said | :36:05. | :36:09. | |
we can run the economy competently, we can be tough with the public | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
finances and invest in the schools and hospitals. We can reverse the | :36:14. | :36:20. | |
unfairness of the Tory years. From 97-2001 that was compelling. After | :36:21. | :36:25. | |
2001, a weak Conservative leader. Labour turned on itself. We started | :36:26. | :36:29. | |
to be defined by arguments about whether we were going to privatise | :36:30. | :36:33. | |
the NHS or not, which was completely out of touch of whether country was | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
and where the members were. It started earlier. On top of that you | :36:38. | :36:41. | |
have the global financial crisis, which we didn't see manage, the | :36:42. | :36:47. | |
globalisation of labour, a problems for communities up and down the | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
country... China, industry moving to China over that period? I think we | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
thought in 2001 globalisation would be about companies moving to China. | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
What we never saw was that globalisation would actually be | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
people moving from Poland and the Czech Republic to work in Britain. I | :37:04. | :37:09. | |
don't think in our country, France, Germany, America politics has coped | :37:10. | :37:13. | |
with that global financial crisis or the mobility of labour or the | :37:14. | :37:17. | |
squeeze on medium incomes at a time when incomes at the top have been | :37:18. | :37:22. | |
rising so fast. All of those things meant the centrists, centre ground, | :37:23. | :37:25. | |
which said we could grip a manage this, people said, you are not doing | :37:26. | :37:31. | |
so well. Why has it not really work? In those circumstances populism | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
techs over, whether it is Donald Trump, Marine le Pen or Jeremy | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
Corbyn. It's easier to communicate in a protesting way, it's not a | :37:40. | :37:45. | |
manifesto for government. Ed Balls, thank you very much indeed. Let's | :37:46. | :37:50. | |
take a quick look at the the Times's from page. Our story, MI6 hires | :37:51. | :37:59. | |
hundreds more spies. That is it from us. | :38:00. | :38:00. | |
We leave you with great news for TV post-production geeks. | :38:01. | :38:03. | |
The ReelSteady image stabilisation software plugin for Adobe | :38:04. | :38:05. | |
After Effects has been thoroughly tested and works rather well. | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
Why are we telling you this interesting but slightly niche fact? | :38:11. | :38:12. | |
Well, the stabiliser software has now been tested with the help | :38:13. | :38:15. | |
of a legendary GoPro movie - that of basejumper Graham Dickenson | :38:16. | :38:17. | |
In case you're wondering, yes he used a parachute. | :38:18. | :38:28. | |
Vive la France! Vive la France! | :38:29. | :39:18. | |
across western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Plenty of sunshine | :39:19. | :39:25. | |
cloud, a bit damp. Eastern Scotland will see some showers, into the | :39:26. | :39:32. | |
cloud, a bit damp. Eastern Scotland of Northern Ireland later on. Plenty | :39:33. | :39:32. | |
of sunshine in of Northern Ireland later on. Plenty | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
north-west up and having a sunny day that some | :39:37. | :39:44. | |
will brighten up across northern England, with quite a | :39:45. | :39:50. | |
will brighten up across northern across East Anglia and the | :39:51. | :39:50. | |
south-east. Through the afternoon across East Anglia and the | :39:51. | :39:57. | |
quite warm, 20 or 21 the high. across East Anglia and the | :39:58. | :40:03. | |
glum start much of Wales in south-west | :40:04. | :40:04. |