03/10/2016 Newsnight


03/10/2016

All the latest news and analysis from the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham - with Evan Davis.


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So, they're here, but are they clear as to what they do now?

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That's the question for the Conservatives,

:00:19.:00:20.

A new Prime Minister, a new zeal to change

:00:21.:00:30.

Things, but with an in-tray overloaded by Brexit. This is where

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Theresa May's vision begins to take shape. Let's keep working, to make

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Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for everyone

:00:42.:00:44.

in this great country. We'll try and fathom

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out what that means. And with hard Brexit on the cards,

:00:50.:00:51.

we'll get our heads around We want to take part in the... What

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does that mean? It means the act we'll have is worthless.

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Hello, welcome to Birmingham, and the Conservative Party Conference.

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Now, if this party has anything, it is a capacity to reinvent itself

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when the conditions demand it, and we are potentially in the midst

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of one of its historic transmogrifications

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Obviously, Doctor Who can do that kind of thing

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in a matter of seconds, it takes the Conservatives rather longer.

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So what this conference is about, is working out whether the change

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is real, and if it is, sketching in the new look

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of the party, with a little more definition than we've had up to now.

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But what a journey the party has taken in the 14 years

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since Theresa May first made a name for herself.

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Not just any Government, a majority of

:01:59.:02:13.

So, here we all are in 2016, the party trying

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not to be overwhelmed by Brexit and to looked in control.

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The Cameron era was itself a break from the past

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and most people understood what he was at least

:02:35.:02:38.

trying to achieve, a

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more liberal party, in touch with modern

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centre, wave from the party's forays elsewhere on the right.

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Now, we're obviously at a big juncture.

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But it's much harder to find the precise term

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Party activists have, kind of, cottoned on to the concept.

:02:54.:03:05.

Is that a new idea for the Conservative Party,

:03:06.:03:10.

No, we've always been a party for everyone.

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But how is it different from previous Tory parties?

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Still got the same bit of pragmatism but a bit

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I think there also a degree of populism about it, as well.

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It's holding the centre and holding the right at the same time.

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I don't think Cameron was against working

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He was a fabulous Prime Minister, as well.

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She's trying to make the Conservative Party the true

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I wonder, out of the security zone into the country that will soon,

:03:41.:03:54.

hopefully, be working for everyone, and the public are still working out

:03:55.:04:02.

To be honest with you, I found that we

:04:03.:04:07.

have a new Prime Minister about a day ago.

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A country that works for everyone,

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they are saying that a lot, have you heard that line?

:04:17.:04:19.

But you could almost say it's a recycled line, I don't think she's

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the first person to say that or something of that nature.

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It's the dream of lots of politicians, that

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And if you take out the Brexit issue,

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there's quite a bit of that about Theresa May's pitch, right now.

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However, it's impossible to believe that there is a coalition that

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really covers 100% of public opinion.

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At some point over this conference or over the next year, as

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we understand what Theresa May is about, she'll have to define what

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she's against as much as what she's for.

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Now, apart from working out how to make a country work

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for everybody, the party has to deal with that other issue: Brexit.

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Perhaps the biggest news that we have had since

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the referendum was in Theresa May's first conference speech yesterday,

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which suggested Britain is heading for a clear

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Put it this way, the speech knocked the pound down to new lows.

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Ideally, the leadership don't want Brexit to be the only talking point

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here, which is why they tried to get it out the way yesterday,

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but let's face it, it is the main talking point.

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Let's deal with it now, and some of the other issues

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with our two specialist editors: political editor, Nick Watt,

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Nick, first of all, something we know we're going to get tomorrow, a

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rather interesting announcement. That's right. There's going to be a

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major announcement by Theresa May and Sir Michael Fallon. They're

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going to pledge to end what they're calling the vexatious industry of

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claims against British soldiers. They're going to say in future

:05:48.:05:52.

conflicts, the UK will seek to derogate from two articles from the

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European Convention on Human Rights, article, two the right to life,

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article five, the right to liberty. They will invoke article 15, which

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says you can do this in times of emergency, or indeed in times of

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conflict. Big announcement by them. Obviously, it will only apply in

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future conflicts. The Iraq historical allegations team, whose

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work is due to complete in 2019, will carry on, interestingly going

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down very well with some of the newspapers that have campaigned on

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this. European convention, nothing to do with the EU actually. This is

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a different thing. OK, sticking on the non-Brexit stuff. Chris, policy

:06:29.:06:34.

issues. Tomorrow we've got education, health. Yeah, health

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first of all. Something that it's an awkward topic, the NHS is going

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through a financial crisis. But they've found something they can

:06:43.:06:46.

unite the party around. They want to reduce immigration pressures from

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the NHS by increasing the number of doctors we train domestically in the

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UK. At the moment we bring in about 1,000 doctors into the UK a year, we

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train about 6,000 on our own. We go up to 7,500, so in principle we

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could be self-sufficient. They can't talk about grammar schools very much

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because there's an open consultation. The Government has to

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legally wait for that to go through before they can really announce

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anything. They're announcing these six action areas where they're going

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to pilot new projects. These are areas of the country where education

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isn't terribly great at the moment. They are Blackpool, Derby, Norwich,

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Oldham, Scarborough and west Somerset. These are places that will

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pilot new ideas so that the success we've seen in London can be emulated

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elsewhere. Quite a bit going on. However, every time you get into a

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conversation here, you drift away and then you come back to Brexit.

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Let's talk about Brexit. We've had quite a lot here, yesterday and

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today. What do you make of the announcements so far. We finally

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have a time table for the process to begin to take us out. You mention

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about soft or hard Brexit. They are banned. Theresa May says that's a

:07:57.:08:02.

false dichotomy. I said softer not harder. You pass the test. Talking

:08:03.:08:08.

to ministers, it does feel that our submarine Prime Minister in broad

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daylight has done two things that perhaps people haven't noticed.

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Firstly, on the style of those negotiations, she's signalling that

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it will be really hard line. The message they want to get out to the

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rest of the EU is that the UK would not be scared, would not be fearful

:08:24.:08:28.

of leaving at the end of those negotiations without agreement.

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You'll know a guillotine comes down after two years. What they want to

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say is they don't want EU leaders to have the ability to prolong that if

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we're showing fear. On style, hard line. On the substance of the

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negotiation, Theresa May hasn't actually said a great deal more.

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Controlled immigration, the UK will set its own laws. No more than that.

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She's leaving the substance quite open. How united, you tell me, we've

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all had some conversations here, how united do you think the party is? At

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one level ministers are united. There's agreement that there's

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clarity on the process to take us out. In broad daylight, yesterday

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Boris Johnson said, "I don't believe leaving the EU will disadvantage us

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in any way." Today a very stern message from Philip Hammond about

:09:15.:09:16.

the challenge of those negotiations and saying he would do whatever it

:09:17.:09:21.

takes to protect the UK from the turbulence of those negotiations.

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There is real concern in the treasure that the -- treasurery that

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the Brexiteers are not to the challenge. With minister has been

:09:34.:09:36.

heard to remark that the Prime Minister has an incredible grasp of

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the detail and is realistic. Of the three Brexiteers the senior official

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has been heard to say, "They are away with the fairies." A true

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European city with attractions to rival the finest found on the

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continent. So where better for the Tory family to discuss its favourite

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subject. On day one of the Conservative Conference on Sunday,

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Theresa May finally set out a time table for Britain's Brexit

:10:09.:10:16.

negotiations. Thank you. The time for Philip Hammond to offer a

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sobering message about those negotiations. It is equally clear to

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me that the British people did not vote on June 23 to become poorer or

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less secure. So our task is clear, repat reiate our sovereignty,

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control our borders and seize the opportunities that the wider world

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has to offer, but do all of this while protecting our economy, our

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jobs and our living standards. The international trade secretary, Liam

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Fox, one of the Cabinet's three Brexiteers, was more optimistic. We

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will continue to push the case for Britain as a great place to do

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business. Now in case any of you haven't noticed, the sky didn't fall

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down on 24th June. Theresa May wants to be remembered as the Prime

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Minister who delivered on the wishes of the British people in the EU

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referendum. But what really drove her to the top was a determination

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to tackle what she's described as the burning injustices faced by the

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poor and to champion the struggling classes. That is quite an ambitious

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agenda, even without Brexit. But one former colleague of Theresa May, who

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was passed over in the recent reshuffle, believes Governments can

:11:32.:11:34.

ride two horses. This is partly what informs the way she suggested we're

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going to do the Brexit process, which is to pass this bill that will

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mean the moment we leave we have control over everything, but not

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saying that you're going to change every single rule and regulation

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over that process. I think that would be a capacity problem for

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Government. The way she's set it out means we can make sure we deliver

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that decision correctly. One long-standing supporter believes she

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could even book a place in history. All things being equal, she should

:12:01.:12:04.

have a pretty good run at 2020. She could be our Prime Minister for

:12:05.:12:08.

close on nine years, even before the election of 2025. So I actually

:12:09.:12:13.

believe that she will have a chance of successfully negotiating our

:12:14.:12:21.

Brexit from the EU and at the same time, the the social reforms and

:12:22.:12:23.

other factors important to her. She'll have a chance to do both.

:12:24.:12:31.

Lord Ashcroftish yewed a note -- Ashcroft issued a note of caution.

:12:32.:12:34.

Can Theresa May as the Prime Minister want to get involved in the

:12:35.:12:45.

minutie in all she's trying to do. That will depend on her ministers of

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state in the areas you talk about - can she trust them? Can she rely on

:12:50.:12:55.

them? The three wise men, or the Brexiteers to friends, will be busy

:12:56.:12:59.

over the next few years, but one of their supporters believes other

:13:00.:13:01.

ministers will have plenty of time on their hands to focus on the Prime

:13:02.:13:11.

Minister's domestic agenda. The EU stuff and article 50s will be the

:13:12.:13:15.

lawyers. We're not going to comment on it, which I find reassuring,

:13:16.:13:19.

actually we'll be able to get on with the day-to-day stuff. One

:13:20.:13:26.

Remain supporter believes Brexit will drown out everything else. If

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we push through with Brexit, it will take up most of the band width

:13:30.:13:34.

probably for five years. That will limit what Government can do. There

:13:35.:13:38.

are interesting ideas on grammar schools and housing and so on. The

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Government will carry on being a Government, it will talk about other

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things. But Brexit will touch so many areas of life and Government

:13:46.:13:49.

activity, that it is going to dominate the agenda. Theresa May

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says she can and indeed must deliver her two goals. In her mind they are

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linked because the voters who took Britain out of the EU were crying

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out for change. Well, one rare point of continuity

:14:01.:14:05.

between David Cameron and Theresa May is that they both

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wanted this man in the Treasury. David Gauke, now Chief Secretary

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to the Treasury, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. A lot of

:14:12.:14:19.

people interpreted Theresa May's speech yesterday as forget the

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single market, we are not going to be in it. We will have access to it,

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but we won't be in it. Is that your interpretation? What she was saying

:14:27.:14:30.

is that one lesson we have to learn from the referendum result in June

:14:31.:14:35.

is that first of all, very obviously, we have to leave the

:14:36.:14:39.

European Union, but secondly, that a lot of the votes for Leave were

:14:40.:14:43.

driven by concern about immigration and that we have to respond to that.

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In particular, the sense that we don't set our own rules when it

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comes to migration. I think that was very clearly a lesson that she has

:14:53.:14:57.

taken from the referendum result. I think, she's very clear that we need

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to ensure that the economy is strong, that we have access to be

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able to trade goods and services with the European Union. What that

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particular model would be, I think, is something for the negotiations.

:15:11.:15:14.

We probably need to get away from the very simple, you know, is it a

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Norway model, Canada model or anything of that sort. I don't want

:15:18.:15:22.

to be simplistic about it, but basically, full membership of the

:15:23.:15:26.

single market, we've said goodbye to that some time ago yeah. That is not

:15:27.:15:30.

going to happen. And not even on a Norwegian scale. We're going to be

:15:31.:15:34.

much more selective in our relationship than that?

:15:35.:15:40.

Well, I think we will go into the negotiations with those two, if you

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like, overarching objectives. Now, trying to get the best possible deal

:15:48.:15:51.

that we will get. I didn't think it makes sense too, kind of, take a

:15:52.:15:55.

position whereby you say this one is really important, this one, we will

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do what we can but it is secondary. You are immediately weakening your

:16:00.:16:02.

negotiating power. That is not how you go into negotiation, you go in

:16:03.:16:09.

seeking the best on both runs and seek to achieve it. Why do you think

:16:10.:16:12.

the pound fell when Theresa May spoke yesterday? You mentioned I

:16:13.:16:16.

have been a Treasury minister for a while and one good rule for a

:16:17.:16:19.

Treasury minister is not to talk or speculate about sterling. I probably

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shouldn't get into that. Look, the markets are, move around, from one

:16:24.:16:31.

issue or another. You know, obviously... Policy in this area is

:16:32.:16:34.

going to affect sterling, there are many other factors as well. It is

:16:35.:16:38.

probably best as a Treasury minister not to get drawn into it. Hinting,

:16:39.:16:43.

though you may be trying. It was interesting that the Chancellor,

:16:44.:16:46.

Philip Hammond on the radio this morning did suggest that the central

:16:47.:16:50.

estimate of Brexit, this is the Treasury estimate, is that we will

:16:51.:16:54.

be permanently 4% poorer. Not tomorrow but over the years, we will

:16:55.:16:58.

be 4% behind where we would otherwise be, that is the long run

:16:59.:17:02.

picture. Is that the official government view? When it comes to

:17:03.:17:08.

economic forecasts, obviously, the Treasury made an assessment earlier

:17:09.:17:12.

this year as to it. An assessment based on a number of factors. It

:17:13.:17:17.

partly depends on the nature of the relationship we have with the

:17:18.:17:22.

European Union and it depends on various factors. The short-term

:17:23.:17:31.

estimate they made white ... Was that the one from the George Osborne

:17:32.:17:36.

Treasury dossier on costs of Brexit? Is that the figure he was talking

:17:37.:17:41.

about? I didn't hear his interview, I do not know the context in which

:17:42.:17:46.

Philip Hammond said that. But before percent is what he is quoting from

:17:47.:17:50.

the dossier? It depends on which model we go down. -- but the 4%.

:17:51.:17:56.

There was analysis from the Treasury earlier this year that suggested

:17:57.:17:59.

there are some long-term impacts. For those of us in government, our

:18:00.:18:04.

job is to get on with implementing what the British people have

:18:05.:18:11.

decided. To make a success of it. If you like, has the Treasury worked at

:18:12.:18:15.

the differences between those models? I recollect, back in April,

:18:16.:18:19.

the Treasury view was if you are in the single market, expected to be 4%

:18:20.:18:25.

poorer. EA option, we won't go into the details. If you go for a lesser

:18:26.:18:29.

Brexit, hard of Brexit, the costs go up to 6% or 8% of national income.

:18:30.:18:36.

We should be chewing over those figures, shouldn't we? If you like,

:18:37.:18:40.

these are the prices on the menu that is being chosen by our

:18:41.:18:43.

government, selected by our government, the option from the

:18:44.:18:48.

menu. The point I I would make, the Treasury did the analysis earlier

:18:49.:18:51.

this year. Hasn't gone back and redone the analysis. Staggered by

:18:52.:18:56.

the analysis. Philip Hammond was quoting it this morning. I suppose I

:18:57.:19:01.

was surprised the analysis done in the heat of the referendum was now

:19:02.:19:05.

being quoted by the Chancellor as the government view of the effect of

:19:06.:19:10.

Brexit. As I say, didn't hear exactly what Philip said. But there

:19:11.:19:15.

are some challenges that we face, as a consequence of Brexit. But I come

:19:16.:19:19.

back to this point about, you know, we are now in this position of

:19:20.:19:25.

negotiating a new relationship. This is an unprecedented situation. We

:19:26.:19:28.

need to find the best possible deal we can get. These are... Just brave

:19:29.:19:35.

faced words. Can you think of any other action the government has

:19:36.:19:39.

taken that would make us permanently 4% poorer? Other than going to a

:19:40.:19:43.

world war? We had a referendum and we have to respect the result, the

:19:44.:19:47.

British people have decided we have left the European union -- we have

:19:48.:19:50.

left. If we are going to make a success of it, which is what the

:19:51.:19:54.

government is determined to do. Then we need to get the best possible

:19:55.:19:58.

deal. That means... I come back to this point. You come back but we

:19:59.:20:06.

need the information as to what the costs are believing the single

:20:07.:20:08.

market or going to the WTO rules. There is no point having this

:20:09.:20:10.

discussion and everybody clapping Theresa May saying we will make a

:20:11.:20:14.

success of it if you are busy doing work that makes us 2% poorer for

:20:15.:20:18.

eternity. This is big stuff, isn't it? The point is that a decision has

:20:19.:20:23.

been made and we need to implement. On the perspective of all of the

:20:24.:20:26.

government, we want to do this in a way that is as economically

:20:27.:20:30.

successful for the country. That means, if you like, trying to

:20:31.:20:34.

ameliorate some of the downsides. Looking at some of the ways we can

:20:35.:20:38.

access European markets for goods and. Yeah. It also means that we

:20:39.:20:43.

look at the potential opportunities for Brexit in terms of potential

:20:44.:20:48.

trade deals with other countries. And being a beacon for free trade,

:20:49.:20:54.

if you like. To see what is the best way in which we can address the new

:20:55.:20:57.

situation. That is what we are determined to do. But the starting

:20:58.:21:02.

point has to be the British people voting to leave and we have to

:21:03.:21:07.

leave. Theresa May has set out, not red lines, everything is negotiable,

:21:08.:21:12.

she mentioned immigration, taking back control of the European Court

:21:13.:21:15.

of Justice. We can't be bossed around by a foreign court. She

:21:16.:21:19.

didn't mention in the speech yesterday, we will not be paying a

:21:20.:21:23.

penny to the European Union, if you like, in a subscription fee. Yeah.

:21:24.:21:30.

Can I take it that we may come as a possible result for this

:21:31.:21:33.

negotiation, on the table, is some negotiation that we may pay them a

:21:34.:21:38.

fee? For example, better access to the market. So, we will give some

:21:39.:21:42.

things, take some things, give some money and get things in return?

:21:43.:21:46.

Again, I come back to a point I made earlier. You go into a negotiation,

:21:47.:21:51.

you don't come up with a list of things that you say, here are the

:21:52.:21:58.

things we are going to concede... She came up with the list, it was in

:21:59.:22:01.

the speech! Trying to over analyse and saying, if something is included

:22:02.:22:04.

in the speech than we are really serious about it but if there is a

:22:05.:22:07.

speech that doesn't make reference to something else that we are ready

:22:08.:22:11.

to concede on it. I mean, I could stop you doing that, but that

:22:12.:22:14.

doesn't seem to be a sensible way for me to think of negotiating. To

:22:15.:22:18.

summarise our Brexit conversation so far, we know diddly squat about

:22:19.:22:23.

what's going to happen. But, that's not necessarily a bad thing, because

:22:24.:22:29.

obviously we want to keep everything open. There is a lot to play for and

:22:30.:22:32.

we will not rush it. What is the best way to get the best deal? Not

:22:33.:22:35.

to lay it all out, hold back information, frustrating though it

:22:36.:22:39.

may be for journalists. But imagine a Mac I understand that. It is

:22:40.:22:43.

important for the country, given the prices for various options. There

:22:44.:22:47.

will no doubt be a very full debate when we reached the end of this

:22:48.:22:51.

conclusion. Let's go onto, very briefly, this domestic agenda.

:22:52.:22:55.

Theresa May seems to be quite ambitious for change in the country,

:22:56.:22:59.

she wants to become if you like, a more industrial policy for example.

:23:00.:23:03.

Helping people who perhaps don't have so much money in their pocket.

:23:04.:23:07.

Should we take it that that agenda is going to cost a little extra

:23:08.:23:12.

money. So, over time, we might have to raise taxes, somehow? Or is it

:23:13.:23:16.

possible you can deliver that agenda without spending a penny more than

:23:17.:23:18.

anyone had talked about spending? Your question, I suspect, relates to

:23:19.:23:28.

the statement that Philip said, today, that other people said in the

:23:29.:23:33.

past, we are not aiming for the 2020 surplus. There are a couple of

:23:34.:23:37.

elements to that. Firstly, if the economy does slow over the course of

:23:38.:23:43.

the next few years, following Brexit referendum, tax receipts would be

:23:44.:23:46.

lower than the other would be. Then we need to borrow more. I wasn't

:23:47.:23:49.

asking about that at all. I was asking about... Do you think Theresa

:23:50.:23:54.

May can deliver this ambitious social agenda she has been talking

:23:55.:23:58.

about? Can that be delivered in the medium to long-term without raising

:23:59.:24:02.

a bit of extra money? Has she got in her head and agenda costs nothing? I

:24:03.:24:07.

was going to turn to the second element of this. OK. It was very

:24:08.:24:12.

clear from the Chancellor's speech today that we are looking at, for

:24:13.:24:17.

example, ways in which we spend money on economic infrastructure.

:24:18.:24:24.

That has a very good rate of return. Robust contribution towards the

:24:25.:24:27.

economy. Looking at ways in which perhaps we could do more of that,

:24:28.:24:31.

given that, actually, we are able to borrow very cheaply at the moment.

:24:32.:24:38.

But there is a particular driver for improving productivity. Now, those

:24:39.:24:42.

are, if you like other measures that fit, perhaps, with what you are

:24:43.:24:46.

talking about. That sort of Theresa May agenda. There might be scope for

:24:47.:24:52.

us to do more in those areas, about driving up productivity, making sure

:24:53.:24:55.

that the economy is strong in every part of the country. You know,

:24:56.:24:59.

making a country that works for everyone. You know, all of that is

:25:00.:25:03.

part of our thinking. That in the short term, maybe we need a bit more

:25:04.:25:07.

flexibility. Nice to talk to you, thank you.

:25:08.:25:08.

Well, we just tried to shed a little light on what the Government's

:25:09.:25:11.

position is on some crucial aspects of the Brexit negotiations.

:25:12.:25:14.

We'll leave it to you to decide how successfully.

:25:15.:25:16.

But, the truth is that there is a heady mixture of conflict,

:25:17.:25:19.

confusion and contradiction around this Conference about

:25:20.:25:21.

We sent Lewis Goodall to quiz the great and the good

:25:22.:25:25.

MUSIC: Word Up! by Cameo.

:25:26.:25:32.

Brexit is the word of the year, the subject of virtually every

:25:33.:25:35.

meeting, argument and drink-fuelled piece of idle gossip at conference.

:25:36.:25:41.

But what about all the other Brexit terms we barely gave

:25:42.:25:43.

a moment's thought to, before the referendum result?

:25:44.:25:45.

The Prime Minister is terribly fond of reminding us that

:25:46.:25:51.

Brexit means Brexit, but within that, what do

:25:52.:25:55.

Do you know your common market from the common agricultural policy,

:25:56.:25:59.

Well, we thought we would help you out by commissioning our very

:26:00.:26:03.

And ask Conservative Party members, ministers and MPs

:26:04.:26:06.

MUSIC: Word Up! By Cameo.

:26:07.:26:09.

Do you think we should stay in the single market?

:26:10.:26:12.

Why not? It's disastrous.

:26:13.:26:14.

We should do much better by ourselves.

:26:15.:26:20.

It's very important to trade, but we are negotiating right now,

:26:21.:26:23.

so it's kind of important to not talk about what we want

:26:24.:26:26.

Sajid Javid, hello, I just want your thoughts are on staying

:26:27.:26:33.

in the single market, do you think we ought to?

:26:34.:26:35.

No, no, it's great to have you here, you're one

:26:36.:26:39.

MUSIC: Word Up! By Cameo.

:26:40.:26:42.

Sorry, have you got ten seconds for Newsnight?

:26:43.:26:44.

No, no, no. I'm busy, thank you.

:26:45.:26:46.

We're just wondering, we're trying to tell the public

:26:47.:26:49.

what the single market is and the custom unions,

:26:50.:26:52.

What's the difference is between the single market

:26:53.:26:57.

I could, yes, very easily, but it would take about 15 minutes.

:26:58.:27:02.

15 minutes?! Surely not!

:27:03.:27:03.

Do you know what the customs union is?

:27:04.:27:05.

I do know what these things are, it's my job to know what these

:27:06.:27:08.

things are, but I don't think, you know, they are not terminology

:27:09.:27:11.

Could you explain to us what the customs union is?

:27:12.:27:17.

I could explain what the customs union is, what the single market is,

:27:18.:27:20.

I could explain to you what people think hard Brexit is, soft Brexit.

:27:21.:27:23.

But I think these terms are not the terms...

:27:24.:27:25.

For the benefit of us, could you explain?

:27:26.:27:27.

Well, you know what they are, which is why...

:27:28.:27:33.

The customs union is a free-trade area between the member states

:27:34.:27:36.

MUSIC: Word Up! By Cameo.

:27:37.:27:55.

Yes, I do. Can you explain?

:27:56.:27:58.

I'm not going to do one of your pub quiz operations,

:27:59.:28:01.

Equivalence? Yeah.

:28:02.:28:05.

Well, as a word, it means it should be the equivalent of something.

:28:06.:28:08.

I think it's got a specific European Union context.

:28:09.:28:12.

Well, there's a lot of European stuff that nobody knows

:28:13.:28:15.

Well, it's having reglatory standards that are more or less

:28:16.:28:21.

But it's not the same as being governed strictly

:28:22.:28:24.

or uniformly, absolutely by the EU rules.

:28:25.:28:27.

At the end of a long day's search, the dictionary remains,

:28:28.:28:41.

For all our sakes's we better hope the politicians

:28:42.:28:48.

For a limited time only, it will be tariff free.

:28:49.:28:53.

So, what kind of Conservative Party is being presented here and is it

:28:54.:28:57.

one that will prove more or, at least, as popular

:28:58.:28:59.

than the Cameron-Osborne vintage that won an election just last year?

:29:00.:29:03.

With me here are three people who've seen more Conferences

:29:04.:29:08.

than they might care to admit: Danny Finkelstein, Conservative peer

:29:09.:29:14.

and columnist for the Times, Andrew Rawnsley, from the Observer,

:29:15.:29:16.

and Jenni Russell, also from the Times.

:29:17.:29:21.

And Heidi Allen, Conservative MP. Last year, you were complaining

:29:22.:29:26.

about posh boys in charge of this place, weren't you? You must be

:29:27.:29:31.

delighted, you must think Theresa May is... She has made me cry once

:29:32.:29:37.

already. When? Her first speech on the steps of number ten, I thought,

:29:38.:29:40.

somebody seems to be speaking for the little man. That made me

:29:41.:29:45.

excited. Is this a new party or is this the words have changed? It is

:29:46.:29:53.

like any new branding, we have a new chief exec in charge, the words are

:29:54.:29:56.

great. I am optimistic and hopeful. I have seen a few early signs, the

:29:57.:29:58.

changes to E S A, long-term claimants will no longer get tested

:29:59.:30:02.

again. A great start but I want to see more of that.

:30:03.:30:05.

Do you think this is a sharp contrast? There are changes. We

:30:06.:30:11.

concentrate on the changes and can miss the big picture. The Government

:30:12.:30:14.

is in the same situation, maybe even a bit more of a difficult situation

:30:15.:30:20.

to the one that we were in before, after the general election and after

:30:21.:30:24.

the Brexit referendum. It's still a Government with a small majority.

:30:25.:30:26.

It's still a Government that doesn't have any money. Now on top of that,

:30:27.:30:30.

they have to achieve Brexit. One of the things that we do, we lock at

:30:31.:30:34.

the differences by looking at the disposition of the party. The other

:30:35.:30:38.

thing to look at is the situation. The situation has very many

:30:39.:30:41.

similarities. Along with inheriting David Cameron's office, Theresa

:30:42.:30:45.

May's inherited David Cameron's problems as well. Yes, of course,

:30:46.:30:49.

she has a different approach. I've always thought of her of being in

:30:50.:30:53.

the modernising tradition. She would say she was an early moderniser. I

:30:54.:30:58.

regarded her at the beginning of the process of modernisation as an ally.

:30:59.:31:01.

She has a different focus. When David Cameron took over it was about

:31:02.:31:04.

shifting the aimth of the Conservative Party to a

:31:05.:31:08.

forward-facing. She's looking at a different thing, which is can the

:31:09.:31:11.

Conservative Party appeal more broadly. It's a different emphasis.

:31:12.:31:15.

I think by concentrating only on the differences you miss quite a lot. It

:31:16.:31:22.

feels like, I mean a lot of people have said this, she is where Ed

:31:23.:31:26.

Miliband was, or the chatter is around Ed Miliband before the last

:31:27.:31:30.

election. Yes, one of her favourite things is, she did that in the first

:31:31.:31:33.

speech which Heidi mentioned outside Number Ten and she's done it in

:31:34.:31:42.

every major, important speech on her domestic ambitions, talking about

:31:43.:31:45.

managing and people echo Ed Miliband's squeezed middle or

:31:46.:31:48.

perhaps the less well remembered, Nick Clegg's alarm clock Britain. I

:31:49.:31:53.

think she is probably onto something, which is actually

:31:54.:31:56.

historically served the Conservatives well when they've got

:31:57.:32:00.

it right electorally, which is people who are in work, but on

:32:01.:32:05.

relatively low wages and the Conservatives often recruit when

:32:06.:32:08.

they've been successful that part of population. Or some of them into

:32:09.:32:12.

their coalition. Of course, the test and this is the really crucial thing

:32:13.:32:17.

for those people and everybody else looking at her, is do you translate

:32:18.:32:20.

the nice words about them into any sort of policy. So far Brexit apart,

:32:21.:32:26.

in terms of solid policy, we've had grammar schools, which many people,

:32:27.:32:30.

including many Tories, think is a rather bizarre diversion. Actually

:32:31.:32:33.

if she was serious and you translated the things she said about

:32:34.:32:37.

what she wants to do for that part of society into policy, it would

:32:38.:32:42.

actually give the ingredients for quiet a radically different Toryism

:32:43.:32:45.

which would mean taking on vested interests in the Conservative Party

:32:46.:32:49.

itself. For me the most interesting thing she's done is appoint Matthew

:32:50.:32:53.

Taylor, who ran the policy unit under Tony Blair to investigate the

:32:54.:32:58.

workings of the labour market, the gig economy, the zero hours. Maybe

:32:59.:33:03.

there is a sort of thing, the centre left and the kind of the right

:33:04.:33:07.

getting together to preserve the status quo and fending off Corbyn

:33:08.:33:12.

and the more extreme left, is that a way of looking at it? That's an

:33:13.:33:17.

important target for her to hit. As the economy's changed, more and more

:33:18.:33:21.

of us are in the insecure economy. That probably drove Brexit. A great

:33:22.:33:25.

many people at the bottom thinking their lives had no structure. The

:33:26.:33:29.

question is, will she do anything that's actually coherent about that?

:33:30.:33:33.

I was interviewing Iain Duncan Smith this afternoon. He was saying that

:33:34.:33:39.

the single most, biggest mistake that Cameron and Osborne made about

:33:40.:33:42.

the poor was not raising the level at which you can earn under

:33:43.:33:45.

universal credit before you start having benefits taken away. Forget

:33:46.:33:50.

the talk about social justice and so on, the single thing that Theresa

:33:51.:33:54.

May should be doing is putting an enormous amount of money is to

:33:55.:33:59.

ensure when universal credit comes in poorer people keep more incomes.

:34:00.:34:04.

That would put a few billions... You're all nodding. The money has to

:34:05.:34:10.

come from somewhere. I'm not sure that's going to be possible.

:34:11.:34:14.

However, first I thought this thing of governing the country for those

:34:15.:34:18.

who are just about managing was for David Moyes. I realised over time

:34:19.:34:22.

she is aiming at a different audience. It does mean, it is a

:34:23.:34:27.

change of emphasis. It will mean more emphasis on Government and what

:34:28.:34:33.

Government can do. The Conservative policy's emphasis has shifted from

:34:34.:34:39.

how to cut Government, cut taxes, to thinking, look Government spends 40%

:34:40.:34:41.

of our national income what can it do. That will be her emphasis. It

:34:42.:34:48.

will challenge vested interests. The fantastic tension here is that if

:34:49.:34:51.

everybody thinks if we're going to leave the European Union we will be

:34:52.:34:55.

substantially poorer. And the people most likely to be hit are at the

:34:56.:35:02.

bottom. That's her problem. Heidi, go on. It's 350 million per week for

:35:03.:35:08.

the NHS remember. That cash is there. You've brought us onto the

:35:09.:35:12.

subject of whether the party is united under Theresa May. Because

:35:13.:35:17.

everybody thinks she's great. Everybody I've spoken to. On Brexit,

:35:18.:35:20.

there is a division waiting to erupt. People say it's obviously

:35:21.:35:24.

bonkers. We're about to do something really stupid. No, I don't know, I

:35:25.:35:29.

think... You think that. It's too early to know whether it's complete

:35:30.:35:34.

peace and harmony, mostly because we haven't been back in Parliament for

:35:35.:35:38.

long before we've broken for recess again. She's being shrewd by talking

:35:39.:35:43.

about a time scale where article 50 will be triggered. There's something

:35:44.:35:46.

to give there. Most of the egos have been put to one side for now. I'm

:35:47.:35:50.

sure they'll come back again. Now it's calmer. The key about Brexit,

:35:51.:35:55.

nothing has yet happened. The European Union, the 27 of them who

:35:56.:35:59.

will remain in the European Union when we leave have not had their

:36:00.:36:04.

meeting where unanimously they have to agree what their negotiating

:36:05.:36:08.

position is. We have not revealed what ours is. You haven't accepted

:36:09.:36:13.

the result of the referendum. The key factor is that lots of people on

:36:14.:36:17.

the remain side of the argument, like me, believe that the

:36:18.:36:19.

Conservative Party asked people for their opinion and have to respect

:36:20.:36:22.

that result. That is a very important part of the unity. I don't

:36:23.:36:26.

agree with your interpretation. I think one of the things, by the way,

:36:27.:36:30.

that will serve the Conservative Party from having a row is even if

:36:31.:36:33.

some people think we should be members of the single market, we

:36:34.:36:37.

won't be offered membership, so it won't come to that. This is not a

:36:38.:36:41.

negotiation in which we get to decide everything. I think - Do you

:36:42.:36:46.

think the Tory party's realised that? I'm not sure they have. I

:36:47.:36:50.

think most people in the Conservative Party have accepted the

:36:51.:36:54.

result of the referendum. Do you agree that most have accepted the

:36:55.:36:58.

result of the referendum? I think within the Parliamentary party, yes.

:36:59.:37:03.

I think the people, the 42% or 48% of the country probably haven't. In

:37:04.:37:07.

constituencies like mine, they are still fighting very, very hard not

:37:08.:37:12.

to accept it. But just going back to whether we have access to the single

:37:13.:37:18.

market, I think Theresa May has it in her to get a deal that works for

:37:19.:37:22.

us, a brand new deal for the UK and yes, there is negotiation that will

:37:23.:37:25.

be required on both sides. She's getting out there and bidding

:37:26.:37:28.

relationships. I don't want to get any more EU, go on then. You're all

:37:29.:37:34.

personed on these seats. It's hard to balance. There's all this

:37:35.:37:39.

revivalist enthusiasm on the platforms, when you talk to people

:37:40.:37:42.

in public. The people who are worried about the consequences of

:37:43.:37:45.

Brexit and the way in which it's going to make the divisions clearer

:37:46.:37:50.

in a year etime are the people who are remainers, looking at the

:37:51.:37:54.

economics, talking in huddled corners like Soviet Dissidents. They

:37:55.:38:01.

don't dare say what they feel. Last question, does the left-right, does

:38:02.:38:05.

that spectrum, every now and then people say left-right it doesn't

:38:06.:38:09.

work any more. Does it not work any more? You look at Theresa May, quite

:38:10.:38:16.

hard pro-gay marriage, more conservative on issues of security

:38:17.:38:21.

and personal liberty. I think she will end up having something of a

:38:22.:38:25.

left-right argument in the party in which she will be on the left. I

:38:26.:38:29.

think this is a misinterpretation of her caused by one policy of grammar

:38:30.:38:33.

schools. If you look across the piece of the emphasis she's making,

:38:34.:38:37.

it's taking David Cameron's move away from Thatcherism on. One of the

:38:38.:38:39.

real questions is how the Conservative Party, we haven't

:38:40.:38:42.

talked about this at all, how it reacts to what's happened to the

:38:43.:38:44.

Labour Party. There's two ways to look at that. One is let's have in

:38:45.:38:51.

the centre ground and have that since Labour wants to go somewhere

:38:52.:38:54.

else apparently. Another view, which will be prevalent among people who

:38:55.:38:59.

regard themselves as more radical right, they say this is a golden

:39:00.:39:04.

opportunity... To move to the right. And I think that argument is

:39:05.:39:07.

unresolved. We need to leave it there. Thank you all very much.

:39:08.:39:09.

We leave you with Karen Bradley, the new Culture Secretary who made

:39:10.:39:14.

a passionate defence of her credentials for the job,

:39:15.:39:16.

despite having been a chartered accountant in a previous life.

:39:17.:39:18.

It somehow reminded us of something else, something

:39:19.:39:21.

Being one means I must have no interest in the arts.

:39:22.:39:45.

Accountants are, shock horror, people, to!

:39:46.:39:53.

It says you are an extremely dull person.

:39:54.:39:56.

Do you have any idea of what you want to be?

:39:57.:40:01.

Yes, but what qualifications do you have?

:40:02.:40:07.

I'm a regular at the new Vic Theatre.

:40:08.:40:09.

And I have paintings by moorlands artists.

:40:10.:40:14.

And it lights up and says "Lion tamer" in big red neon letters.

:40:15.:40:17.

It's sad isn't it that this is what accountancy does to people.

:40:18.:40:24.

The only way we can fight this terrible, debilitating

:40:25.:40:27.

I only want to see my name in lights.

:40:28.:40:36.

Hi there. It's a settled prospect across the UK for the next several

:40:37.:40:43.

days really with high pressure and winds from the east keeping

:40:44.:40:47.

rain-bearing weather fronts to the west. There will be subtle

:40:48.:40:49.

variations.

:40:50.:40:50.

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