26/10/2016 Newsnight


With Evan Davis. An in-depth look at Hillary Clinton by Joe Klein. Plus sex scams and webcams, France's farm minister and 80 years of British TV.

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Gabby Logan will be back next week, Big Apple.


She has been bruised, emotionally Wednesday at


She has been bruised, emotionally battered anti-militated by a raft of


enemies, and sometimes even by her husband. All that scar tissue


renders her stiff, sometimes embarrassingly awkward. And we will


also be talking to the editor of the new York Times.


Also tonight: Online blackmail, webcams and shame in the Arab world.


Vision and sound are on. The station goes on the air.


It's exactly 80 years since TV started in Britain.


John Logie Baird's assistant at the time - yes,


this is really him - tells us about the early days of TV.


The year of Donald Trump dominating our headlines,


breaking the rules and conventions of democratic politics


with everything including the ludicrous and the lascivious,


and a year of him surprising us by how far he has got, will be over.


He will either be President of the US - in which case,


we'll have a lot to talk about - or Hillary Clinton will be President


and Donald Trump will revert to being a TV star.


Right now, the smart money is on Hillary, so let's spend a bit


of time on her personality and politics, and her chances.


Hillary has perhaps been getting less than the usual scrutiny, what,


But here's some interesting testimony about her


I think that she's a little bit misunderstood.


You know, Hillary's a very smart woman, very tough woman -


that's fine - but she's also a very nice person.


With an endorsement like that, her performance in the debates


and all the other stuff, is there any way that


The answer is yes, but it's pretty unlikely.


The latest polling average puts her about six points ahead of Mr Trump.


The uncannily accurate FiveThreeEight political blog,


which analyses all polls state-by-state, says she has an 85%


In fact, one might think of there being three possible outcomes.


A Clinton landslide - leading the popular vote by more


than 10%, a narrower Clinton win, or a Trump victory either


in the popular vote or at least in the electoral college.


Have a look at the chances put on each of these.


The landslide, at 19%, has a bigger chance than any kind


A more modest Clinton victory remains the most likely outcome.


There are potential reasons that Mrs Clinton may not clinch it


Is there more to come out e-mails hacked from her


Also, there are more than the usual undecided voters this year.


But there's no reason to think they will go to Trump.


But the real question mark over a Hillary victory there


is raised by the Brexit factor here.


Believe me, this is Brexit times five.


Maybe Trump can prove the polls and experts wrong.


Now, the truth is, UK polls are often wrong, but we should


never have been that surprised by a Brexit win.


Two weeks before referendum day, two polls put Brexit ahead, one by 10%.


Donald Trump may have the backing of one famous Brexiteer,


but Hillary can probably take heart from the Brexit polling story.


She's in a stronger position than Remain was, or Donald Trump is.


Ariel Edwards-Levy, Director of Polling at the Huffington Post,


commissions three polls a week in conjunction with YouGov


and analyses the results for their readers.


Good evening. What chance are you putting on a Hillary win at the


moment? We have her in the high 90% chance of winning. There are a


couple of forecasts, and the worst has her in the high 80s. The


forecasts are confident that the polls are right. There is pretty


much a consensus right now that the polls have her head, and if


something doesn't go catastrophically wrong with the


polls, or she doesn't do something catastrophic with her campaign in


the next two weeks, she will win. Any time we have an election, we


hear about shy Tories, people who don't admit to being on a particular


side. What makes you so sure that there are not shied Trump


supporters? People who think it is socially unhelpful to admit to


supporting him and want tell a pollster? Aside from the fact that


saying you have many supporters who are too embarrassed to support you


not really being a winning message, one of the great things about modern


polling technology is we have a way of testing this, because there are


two kinds of polls, online polls where you don't have to admit to


anyone who you are supporting, and the kind where somebody calls you


up. And what we have seen is that all Trump's level of support in both


of those polls is identical, so you have this mode effect, where polls


online for Brexit were getting a different response, and you are not


seeing any of those warning signs here right now. Is the Brexit result


here and the fact that it seemed to take a lot of people by surprise, it


probably shouldn't have quite so much, but is that to some extent


haunting the American elections here? I think the parallel for


Brexit is maybe not one that Donald Trump supporters should embrace,


because there is a parallel, and it is that if you look at the polls and


dismiss them, and you prefer to stay with the narrative that is not


supported by those numbers, you are going to be surprise when the


results end up looking a lot like those numbers are not what you were


telling yourself in the run-up to the election. What would it take to


stop Hillary Clinton now? You are putting 90 something percent chance


of her winning. There is still news to occur. Maybe an e-mail or


something to come out. What would you say is the most likely scenario


that could see Donald Trump get it on the day? In order for him to win,


he would have to regain his footing in all of the red states that have


started looking close, states like Arizona that you wouldn't ever


expect to go democratic but have trended that way. There are a couple


of state polls that have indicated he might be close to hanging on


there. He would have to win over states like Nevada, Florida, Ohio,


and he would have to win over states like Pennsylvania that he has never


had popularity in before. It could be that all of the polls have


somehow missed something terribly, terribly wrong. The other thing


could be that something in the next two weeks to stories Hillary's


support. But it is difficult to think what that would be, but never


say never until the votes are cast. What do the polls tell us is the


reason for Hillary Clinton having such a negative perception? Many


people say they will vote for her, but there is still a strong negative


perception of her? Yes, there is, and if you look back a couple of


years, when she was Secretary of State, she was one of the most


popular politicians in the United States, and then she started running


again and people remembered everything they didn't like about


her, so it is a combination of two things. One is partisanship.


Republicans are not going to like the Democratic nominee, pretty much


no matter who they are. And she has gotten this persona of being not


trustworthy, of being power hungry, and the e-mails, no matter what role


they play in the campaign, which may not be a significant one, they have


tired her opinion among many rank-and-file Americans who don't


see her as an entirely upstanding figure. Thank you very much indeed.


So what is the appeal of Hillary Clinton?


We asked a long-time associate of the Clintons and the writer


of the novel Primary Colors, which fictionalised


President Bill Clinton's first campaign in 1992,


the political columnist for Time Magazine Joe Klein


to explain why she has his backing for the White House.


I wanna be the president for every American.


Who says I don't have the stamina to be President?


Who or what is Hillary Clinton aside from probably the next president


She isn't really a regulation human being, not any more.


Her life has been ridiculously public for the 30 years


She's been bruised, emotionally battered and humiliated by a raft


of enemies and sometimes even by her husband.


As a result, she is cloaked in a thick crust of celebrity armour.


She protects herself with scar tissue from 10,000 cuts.


I suppose I could have stayed home and baked cookies,


Her first instinct in public, therefore, is to play defence,


I am not sitting here as some little woman standing by my man


All that scar tissue renders her stiff,


She seems secretive, shifty, the least known


My personal e-mails are my personal business, right?


The natural assumption is that she must be


If you asked her out for a beer, would she order


There have been so many scandals around nothing very scandalous.


In the 1990s, there was a seven-year Whitewater investigation


into her family's personal finances, which found nothing illegal.


There have been seven separate investigations into her behaviour


as Secretary of State during the Benghazi attack


Again, her behaviour was found perfectly proper.


And now there's the investigation into the personal e-mail


server that she used while she was Secretary of State


which found that she did behave carelessly in handling some


classified information, but she had done nothing illegal.


But she is hated, she is reviled, she is considered untrustworthy,


she is considered J Lovell by some people.


she is considered jailable by some people.


In fact Barack Obama once said to her, famously,


you are likeable enough, Hillary.


Her vote to support the war in Iraq was dreadful,


and I think was a political vote, a vote to prove her toughness.


Too often, her votes are too political.


She may be too close to Wall Street, but it's


important to remember that


most of the accusations against her involve her private


They don't involve violations of the public trust.


For too long, our leaders have viewed politics is the art


of the possible, and the challenge now is to practice politics


as the art of making what appears to be impossible possible.


The truth is, Clinton is a solid public servant.


She's the girl, the young woman who sat in front of class


She is the sober designated driver driving her mates home after a night


When we'd see each other back in the 1990s when she was First


Lady, her first question to me always was, what


Have you seen any exciting social programmes or schools


After 9/11, which happened right here, the question changed.


She joined the Senate armed services committee.


I was learning the military, too, and the new question now was,


In 2007, I spent time embedded in Iraq with General David Petraeus.


I asked him is there any potential president of the Democratic party


And he said, you mean aside from Hillary?


And I guess we have to say this, given


We are at a very perilous moment in American politics,


just as you are in Britain, and that is so un-American.


We are supposed to be a pillar of stability.


Clean elections, two parties, civility.


But the Republicans are in the midst of an unprecedented bloody


civil war, and both sides will try to prove their toughness


by stomping all over President Hillary Clinton.


The Democrats will be impatient, too.


Bernie Sanders and his young supporters will be just


Leading America in the world would be a hard enough job for anyone,


and harder still for an awkward, defensive woman who will always be


compared unfavourably to her husband and Barack Obama,


even though she is bound to follow their policies


The next four years will be far more difficult than her


But one thing I know about Hillary Clinton.


I am not Hillary Clinton but I think she would approve of that message,


that is from Joe Klein. Dean Baquet is the Executive Editor


of the New York Times. The paper has endorsed Hillary


Clinton. The editorial page. Is that because she's a stronger candidate


or not Donald Trump? No, I run the news pages and not the editorial


pages and I think the argument was she is a strong candidate. There was


a very powerful anti-Donald Trump part of it. But the New York Times


has endorsed Hillary Clinton in the past, she was the US senator for New


York, so it was a pro Hillary Clinton endorsement. In a strange


way, this election has been challenging and testing for


everybody and for her, but has she come through it and tested on issues


like policy? There has not been much chance to have that debate. I think


that is true. One of the biggest downside of this sometimes, campaign


we have had with Donald Trump as sort of a, book figure is that not


only have we tried to write about policy, but the debates have not


focused so much on policy and I think people have not got to test


them on everything from what would they do about Syria, on health care


in the United States? There has been so much, relief that we have not


heard enough about. What does Hillary stand for? I am hard pressed


to answer and we have barely spoken about her! If you look at, I have


covered the Clintons a bit as a reporter, and she is a moderate


Democrat, she is strong on national defence, she may even be stronger on


national defence than Barack Obama and more likely to intervene broad


than Barack Obama -- abroad. She did vote to intervene in Iraq. She is


moderate on social issues, she is a moderate Democrat who by the way is


going to have the struggle to hold onto that because she defeated an


extraordinary Liberal opponent. As Jo pointed out and he's right, the


supporters of Bernie Sanders will not be happy if Hillary Clinton


introduces your standard American Cabinet middle-aged guys who work


for think tanks in Washington. A lot of people think she is corrupt and


she takes money for this and that. The e-mail scandal has had an


enormous amounts to play and she has apologised and she has been taken to


task on that. The one that perhaps is more questionable is the


foundation. She is Secretary of State and running for President and


running around the foreign leaders and taking their money for her


charity, not for her own benefit, is that a bit weird? I think the e-mail


scandal was more indicative of the questions people have about Hillary


Clinton. I don't think she did anything corrupt or illegal, but she


is a very secretive person and the Clintons in the White house were


very secretive and suspicious of those around them. I think that was


part of the calculation when she wanted her own e-mail server. I


don't think much has been proven about the Clinton Foundation, unlike


Donald Trump's, it is a large gift-giving foundation. I do think


there is evidence she used her position to help raise money for the


foundation but in a weird way, the e-mail scandal is worth chewing over


four people, it is not one... Have you been soft on her at the New York


Times because she is against Donald Trump? No, we broke the e-mail


scandal. And we were roundly criticised by her and her people. We


have written very provocative stories about the relationship she


played years ago when Bill Clinton had to deal with the allegations


about women when he was running for office. If she was running against a


normal candidate, people would think we were extraordinarily tough on


her. In fact, she thinks we are. Let's talk about how this election


has shaped coverage. The New York Times tries to be relatively


impartial in its news pages. Trump has challenged that. We have never


seen anybody like him. I mean, we did something extraordinary a couple


of months ago and we accused him of telling a lie in a headline and used


the word, live. And I decided to do it because I found that he is so


persistently lying. He so persistently and overtly lied.


Politicians lie, they exaggerate, they say things that will be later


disproven, but Trump was doing this extraordinary thing and the turning


point was the allegation that Barack Obama was not born in the United


States. He literally lied and said he had never made a big deal of it


and he also said he hired a private detective. I thought that was beyond


the pale and we owed it to our leaders to not obfuscate and said


that was not a lie. You have done it for Trump, he told a lie and you


called it out in a headline and used the word lie, very unlike the New


York Times. Let's suppose a candidate like Hillary tells a verb,


do you go back to the normal treatment of that which is you


probably question it in the article and say no evidence was offered, how


ever you put it, or do you say, it is a lie? I think Trump did


something different and I think we have changed and we will do it for


future politicians. His was not a fib. He said vocally one thing


Monday and something else different Tuesday and it was a lie he


stretched over time. I think to be Frankie change does. I think it took


us a little bit of time to call him out. And I think the next time it


happens, we will do it more quickly and I think we are different as a


result of Donald Trump. Not sure what that looks like five years from


now. You will say, we are only doing it for clear lies. Then there will


be people who say, this is a clear lie and you have to make a judgment,


do we call this out as they clear lie or a fib which we do not? When


we use the word lie in a headline, I have a standards editor who reports


to me and he called me the next day and said, I agree with that, that


was great, I hope you are not going to do it everyday! U2 FactCheck


Donald Trump, well, everybody. Which -- we do FactCheck them both. To


some extent, is the problem for everybody that Donald Trump's


politics are not about facts, people are not listening to the facts out


of his head and judging him on those, they are reading the


subtitles about, I support you, these people are not on your side, I


am on the side. I don't know what it is, they will do things for you


rather than for the people who benefit. To an extent, that is true,


but he is behind in the polls sub some people, some Americans, they


are fact checking him. But I think most of what you say is true. I


think Donald Trump has cast himself in this remarkable role. This is a


guy who says he is a billionaire, but he is running against, and he


has done this is whole life, he is running against elite, but the


leaders of the Republican party. The New York Times! This is a guy who


made his fortune building apartment buildings for people who probably


could not have gotten into old money exclusive buildings. He was born in


Queen's. His father made his fortune in Queen's, he went to the big city


Manhattan and has been running against elite in his entire business


and now political career and that includes others. Did you, the


newspaper, like a lot of others, did you miss the story that there were


going to be so many people who were receptive to that anti-elite


message? Yes, I don't think we missed the story and I disagree with


those who say we missed the story of Donald Trump, I do not think so.


People know a lot of Out one. The story we messed and the press was


just how much anger there was in the country over the economic crisis and


disparity between the middle-class and extremely wealthy in the United


States. Although I have to say, it was easy to miss and it may have


taken a Donald Trump to put his finger on it and the light that up


but we did miss that story and I come away with lessons about how to


cover the country going forward. We're trying to talk about Hillary


Clinton today and we have ended up talking about Donald Trump!


Finishing on Hillary Clinton, do you think is a President she can unite


the nation? At this bitter campaign, can America be healed within a year


under Hillary? I do not think it is just on her. I think like Barack


Obama, she will try. I think a lot of it is on whether or not the


Republican party can take back the percentage of voters Donald Trump


took away from them. I think a lot of it depends on whether Democrats


are willing to let's -- to let go of their dreams of Bernie Sanders and a


left-leaning party. She has to try, I don't think it is up to her. A lot


of factions have to come together and I think it is going to be tough.


Dean Baquet, thank you. Shame is one of our


most basic emotions. It's been ruining lives for as long


as humans can remember, and it's also been used as a form


of traditional social control. But in the modern era,


technology has offered new ways A problem in our relatively


permissive society, but with far bigger human consequences


in the more conservative The BBC Arabic Service


is behind a fascinating It's called Shame, Sex, Honour


and Blackmail in an online world. We thought we'd bring you two films


from that project - Women, of course, are particularly


vulnerable to blackmail, Today, though, we thought we'd show


you that it can affect men, too. It happened when I was home alone.


This girl added me on Facebook. That night, she starts


chatting on Skype. And after a while, she asks


if I have a So I turned on my video and said,


can I see you, too? She lies on her bed


and starts masturbating. With a girl like this,


you lose your head. I'm a man, and I recorded


you masturbating. I have a list of your


family from Facebook. You have only one week


to send me 2000 euros, or I'll


send them the video. I'd have thrown myself out


of the window from the We'll have more from the Shame


season tomorrow, with the story And we'll also be discussing


the issues raised by France and Britain have a lot


to talk about right now, not least the jungle in Calais,


and of course Brexit. The Jungle has been cleared,


the form Brexit takes It happened that the French


agriculture minister, Stephane Le Foll, was in London


today in talks relating to COP22, the next round of UN


climate change discussions He also has a job as a Government


spokesman, so I caught up with him in the lavish surroundings


of Lancaster House. I began by asking him


whether he knows who's responsible for the chaotic scenes


in the Calais Jungle. Are you going to have 5000 police


guarding the dunes around Calais, the empty warehouses in Calais, the


beach around Calais. Because if you don't, presumably the migrants will


return. There is a debate in France, it


seems, about whether the treaty was the right treaty. Maybe the border


should move back to Dover? Maybe it is easier for Calais. You can put


the migrants on a boat, send them to Britain.


Do you think in retrospect the European Union, if it had known that


Britain was going to vote this way would not have made more effort to


keep the United Kingdom in? Let's just talk about why you are


here, which is for a pre-meeting of the next climate change talks. The


last talks were in Paris, of course. Are you happy that the legacy of the


Paris talks is being carried through?


Stephane Le Foll, thank you very much.


This is the erection of the TV tower at Alexandra Palace in North London.


Famous for being the point from which the first regular,


proper television service was broadcast by the BBC.


For a while, there were two competing services, in fact,


one based on a picture technology of 405 lines, the other using


a system devised by John Logie Baird which had 240 lines.


The Logie Baird system was quickly dropped.


But both were high definition at the time.


Back then, the technology meant the picture took 58 seconds to be


New technology needed custom-built studios.


And guess what - next Wednesday, is the 80th anniversary


Here is some of the Baird apparatus. The transmitting valves, the


spotlight scanner, the spotlight studio in which photocells take the


place of lights and the projection room with the projector.


And guess what - next Wednesday, is the 80th anniversary


# # Mighty mystic, magic raise


# All about us in the gloom # Living pictures out of space


# To bring a new wonder to you Well, I spoke to Paul Reveley


earlier this evening. He is now aged 104, but he worked


as the personal technical assistant of John Logie Baird back


then in 1936. He told me the man most people think


invented television wasn't even a VIP guest on the night.


He wasn't even invited to a set on the platform at the opening


Well, look, his system didn't make it.


It was the one that was dropped, wasn't it?


And the EMI Marconi system was accepted.


Did the right decision get made in the end, do you think?


There's not really much between the systems in television.


It was a question of the implementation.


Did you think, back then, when you were working


for John Logie Baird, did you know how big


and influential television would be in the 20th century?


So the huge irony in the history of television is that


John Logie Baird was the first to do it, and his was


He was the first to make it, make something work.


It was what the patent office call obvious to those versed in the art.


All you had to do was code the mosaic of light and shade,


which a transmissible scene is composed of.


You have to code that in some way, which is called scanning.


And then transmit that like a Morse code down a single


When did you buy your first television?


I didn't buy a television in the UK at all.


I bought a television much later on in life when I was working


for the Post Office engineering department of the Hong


How was John Logie Baird as a man to work for?


You must feel very proud, he has a very big history to him,


and you must feel proud to have had a very close relationship to him?


He was very considerate of his staff.


And of course, he was working at the forefront of his technology,


but he didn't do any practical work himself once he'd formed the Baird


He delegated all work, all actual, physical work


You weren't at Alexandra Palace on that night.


What were you doing on the night of those first broadcast,


I expect I was having dinner with my wife.


I have to say, Paul, it is a great privilege


Thank you very much for coming on, thank you.


Coming up on BBC Two, No Such Thing As The News.


We leave you with Chris Horsely, who's just been visiting


the Marum Volcano in Vanuatu in an unconscious bid to reconstruct


the Mount Doom scene in The Lord Of The Rings.


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