01/11/2016 Newsnight

The Mexican peso has been slipping against the US dollar.

The peso goes down when Donald Trump's chances go up.

With a week to go, the markets are telling us he's breathing down

I am reaching out because I want to be the President for all Americans.

The Olympic champion gymnast Louis Smith gets suspended

We debate what crosses the line and what's harmless fun.

Johnny Marr on getting advice on how to deal with Morrisey

I am sat in the presence of the one person who could really,

really give me some insight into this situation, you know.

The man who's been defined by a songwriting partnership

and if anyone can give me some advice, it's him.

So, I told him what had been going on and he took a minute

and he looked at me and he paused and he said, that's bands for you!

There is one week to go to the US election and, let's be honest,

we in the media have a strong incentive to tell you that

it is close in order to sustain the drama.

To that end, let me tell you that the ABC Washington Post

tracking poll has today shown a tiny Trump lead over Clinton -

Now this is just one poll and in the US it's about winning

states as well as votes, but no one is doubting

You can see that in the changing bookies' odds and indeed in that

On the forecast we've been quoting in recent days,

Hillary was yesterday on a 75% chance of winning,

Emily is there, for the duration now.

How is it different in mood to some of your earlier trips now? It does

feel like there is a shift. We should say it does feel every time

you come, like there is a shift one way or another, but let me put it

like this, last week when we were preparing for the election night

programme we started imagining using language that we hadn't imagined

using before, what if there was a Hillary Clinton landslide victory on

her hands? What if we started putting places like Texas into

battle ground grey columns, places that hadn't been considered

battlegrounds for decades? What if, perish the thought, this was a quiet

election night and nothing changed hands and numbers stayed the same

and nothing much happened? We should have known better than to realise

this was an election that would throw up surprises right until the

very end. It has been pretty supernatural from the start. As you

said, today ABC, which is our sister network here in terms of the data

that we will be using on the actual night, gave Trump that one-point

lead. This is a national lead and I think it's more interesting if you

start delving down into the numbers beneath that headline and they show

what I would call an enthusiasm gap. When you ask voters who they're very

enthusiastic for, Trump has an 8-point lead over Hillary Clinton

amongst their own supporters. In other words, people that are voting

for Trump are more enthusiastic to do so by eight points than those

voting for Clinton. Does this mean that people who decided to vote for

Hillary Clinton won't? It of it doesn't. They'll vote anyway. They

might not rally friends or families, they might not get the vote out with

the same enthusiasm and that altogether could start to depress

the Democrat vote a little bit. There is also a boost for Trump when

we look at things like people who call themselves leaning republican

or republican. He used to have an 80% polling here, now he has 86%.

For Hillary Clinton, that tends to be slipping a little bit. What we

are finding interestingly enough is that if you ask people about who

consider themselves Democrat or Democrat leaning they've started

being more pro- Trump than those who would call themselves Republican

would be more pro-Clinton. It all gets interesting here and one of of

the key things is early voting. The Democrats get all their votes or a

large percentage of their lead from early voting before polling day. The

Republicans get their big boost on the day itself.

Emily, thank Mark Urban has been in Washington

where they are still digesting and critiquing the news that the FBI

are looking at e-mails that might, or might not,

incriminate Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton and Donald

Trump are locked... A week out and the polls are showing

that the frontrunner Hillary Trump supporters are hoping

the latest revelation, that the FBI is examining thousands

of new e-mails, may dent The race has tightened up and it's

because of the FBI director... For her part, she's questioned

the FBI director's judgment for publicising this

new investigation now. I'm sure a lot of you may be asking

what this new e-mail story is about and why in the world

the FBI would decide to jump into an election with no

evidence of any wrongdoing Last Friday, the 538 poll

gave Hillary Clinton Now that's down, but to

a still substantial 74.3%. Her chances have lessened somewhat

since a high point of over The Real Clear Politics average poll

shows a 2.2 percentage point lead for Clinton,

who is on 47.5% to Trump's 45.3%. But even these margins of a few

points put her in a better position than Barack Obama's 1% lead

going into the 2012 vote. When you look at all of the polls

in aggregate they do still show a commanding lead for

Hillary Clinton and the pollsters would all have to be wrong

by a considerable margin for that to come apart

at this stage of the race. Now, obviously, Trump's people feel

that because of the nature of the political insurgency they've

mounted that many of their supporters may not show up

on conventional polling. But they really would have to do

extremely well across the board So, the Trump campaign

in the Republican National Committee held a press call today and said

there's four states Trump needs He is currently slightly behind

in the polls by one or two points. So if he can flip that

in his advantage and keep hold of North Carolina he has

a path to victory. He needs to also flip Florida

and Ohio, which both If he can hold on to North Carolina

and keep a lead in Florida and Ohio and Iowa he does

have a path to victory. There are other things standing

in the way of a Trump In several key states a big part

of this election has actually happened with 23 million already

having voted nationwide. So last-minute revelations

are already too late for those people and a big early vote

favours the Democrats. Tonight, Hillary Clinton

was addressing a series It's one of those key battlegrounds

that many pollsters say Her lead has ebbed and while she's

still out in front she's leaving nothing to chance

as she nears the finishing line. I'm joined by Larry Sabato

from the University of Virginia's Centre for Politics

who publishes the Crystal Good evening to you. Very quickly,

your chances at the moment on Hillary Clinton, you would be

putting it at 70% or thereabouts? Yes, we have had it at 75-25 for

sometime and I think it's holding there. What is interesting is the

polls seem close, we have had this one today where Trump was slightly

ahead. Yet, you guys who forecast the percentage chances of one side

winning or the other seem to have it firmly as Hillary as the favourite.

Why is Hillary so comfortably the favourite, when the polls seem

close? Well, the polls are close, although two points is actually

substantial T would be about 2.5 million votes nationwide. Remember,

President Obama, as your correspondent said, at this time in

2012 was ahead eight 10ths of 1% and won by 4%age points, that was five

million votes. So, the polls averages are simply a rough gauge of

what's going on. You have to remember that Hillary Clinton's

campaign has a much better on the ground operation than do the Trump

people. And the early voting has actually gone very well for the

Democrats. We are up to 26 million, that's double the number at this

time in 2012. Right. Now, in terms of what they have to achieve it's

electoral college votes, we know that, it's not just the popular

vote. Everybody keeps saying North

Carolina seems to be a state, if Trump can't win North Carolina,

which is only 15 of the 270 or so you need, if he can't win North

Carolina there is no path that he can use to make it to the White

House. Why is North Carolina so decisive? Well, actually I don't

agree with that. There are paths around North Carolina and you are

correct it's only 15 electoral votes. The place he must win is

Florida. 29 electoral votes, Trump cannot possibly win without Florida.

Because he's blocked in many of the other democratic leaning

battleground states. Where do you have him on Florida at the moment,

wlaes the likely outcome there? Florida is a complete toss-up but

Trump is a tiny bit ahead. However, that's a place where Democrats have

a very good ground game and again a ground game can get you an extra

point or two. What about Trump's ground game? He barely has one. He

has - he hasn't invested in that. He spent his money on rallies and TV

adverts. Tell us about the Republicans and the Republican party

is a coalition, you have some Trumpists, you have some evangelical

conservatives, Trump is not a natural evangelical Christian. You

have the old establishment. Are they really all going to come out on the

day and vote for Trump who is a candidate who has defined himself

against so much of what the old republican party might be said to

have stood for? Many of them are quite cold on Trump. I would say

about 15% are strongly opposed. But here is what is interesting, as much

as they don't like Trump, they despise Hillary Clinton. And what

has hurt Clinton more than anything else was the decision by our federal

bureau of investigation director to essentially reopen the investigation

into Hillary Clinton's private e-mail server while she was

Secretary of State, it really has hurt her. It has taken a lot of

leaning Republicans who didn't want to vote for Trump and it's put them

in Trump's category. I don't know whether Clinton can get them back, I

doubt she can. The other thing that can happen if you have people in a

party who don't like their party's candidate he vote for the third or

fourth candidate, the independents and say OK I am a Repaubl can but I

am not going to vote for Trump. What's interesting is that the minor

candidates, they don't seem to be featuring heavily at all in this

contest. No, that's the American tradition. It's unlike what exists

now in Britain. We don't have a multi-party system and towards the

end of a campaign almost all, not all, but almost all third party

candidates decline. Some of them into oblivion because a vote for a

third party candidate is called a wasted vote. I don't agree with that

but that's how most look at it. What can Hillary Clinton do to get the

initiative back? It feels as though somehow she has to change the

conversation. We have all been talk being the FBI for the last four

days, we haven't been talking about Donald Trump. How can she change the

conversation? Well, she's trying. She was introduced today by the Miss

Universe that Donald Trump attacked in a prior debate. She's trying. But

you are correct, she needs to stop talking about the e-mails and

develop a line of attack that will last until Tuesday. Here is what is

fascinating, this is not just an opinion, it's a good statistical

study that we have done of what's happened in the campaign. Every time

Donald Trump is in the headlines for more than a few days, he goes down

in the polls. Every time Hillary Clinton is in the headlines for more

than a few days, she goes down in the polls. We have two very

unpopular candidates with the highest unfavourable ratings since

polls have been taken in America. Thank you, nice talking to you.

There's a lot of talk of remoaners - those folks who appear to have

trouble accepting the referendum result; usually people

who ask awkward questions about exactly what Brexit means.

But it is an under-reported fact that some of the leading

remoaners are the Japanese - or at least the one's

who have invested billions of pounds in this country,

creating jobs and resuscitating our otherwise modest car industry.

Yesterday, both the Japanese ambassador to Britain and the head

of the Chamber of Commerce were at a reception with the Brexit

secretary, David Davis and they told him that their companies will need

more than general assurances about unimpeded access

Earlier today I spoke to the Japanese business

He is a big name in the consulting and business school world,

and was advising Japanese companies to move here decades ago.

I asked how the Japanese viewed the post-referendum rhetoric?

We don't know what the final shape would be, and as an investor

to Britain, we would like to know the final shape of the country,

We have always considered the United Kingdom as the place

to operate the entire European businesses from.

And that means that if the UK is a separate entity

from the European Union, then we have to make two

We hear the voice of Nicola Sturgeon who says that Scotland

In which case the final shape of the UK may be England.

And until that final shape of the UK is clear,

we will have to withdraw, or hold investment sessions.

One piece of news we have had to the referendum, on Japanese

investment, is Nissan saying they will put their next investment

in Sunderland, in the big plant up there.

Should we take heart from that, do you think, or do you think

The answer from the UK Government is that the condition

after the Brexit, as far as the automobile export

from Sunderland, is going to be the same as now.

The European Union hasn't said that, European Union says that we will not

give the UK any preference, and therefore, that's just

a statement by the UK Government which will have to wait and see.

And it's true that Nissan had said that they will continue

producing the two types of models after Brexit.

That's a very, very minor, one company decision.

I don't think other companies will follow suit.

I don't think that you can say for sure that the

is going to remain the same as now, and therefore,

it's a very special case, baby Nissan already made

One of the decisions facing us is that we might be able

to negotiate a deal with the EU so there are no taxes,

no tariffs on our cars going into the European Union.

If there is no tariffs but some small amount of bureaucratic

impediment to crossing the border, is that important or is that

UK production for a plant like Sunderland is so much more

competitive than Nissan's operations elsewhere, and therefore,

two or 3% tariff would not hurt the current traffic

If the migration of people, particularly the export people,

are hindered by the Brexit, then that's a more serious problem,

because current operation, our operation in the UK,

can move people from anywhere in the EU to UK operations,

which is wonderful because they love it and it works very well.

OK, therefore the migration of people is equally

And you are advising Japanese companies at the moment,

and are you telling them, hold back on the UK

until you see what happens?

Because we don't have enough information to make

If you have to make a decision in a hurry, then you would

prefer a larger market, which is the market of 27 countries,

Therefore, with the final picture of the UK uncertain,

I will have to advise them to hold, until the course is clear

and until the conditions of Brexit worked out,

not only by the UK Government, but what the European Union says.

And until that is clear, we just have to hold the decision.

Probably not what the Tories wanted, but one of the most memorable things

about their party conference this year was the idea from

Home Secretary Amber Rudd that companies might have to publish

the number of foreigners they employ, thereby enabling

the rest of us to name and shame those that are not

sufficiently patriotic in their employment practices.

The idea never made a conference speech as such

and was never taken further, but the memory has lingered.

Nick Watt has been looking at some context and consequence

It's become something of a totemic albatross hanging round the neck of

the Home Secretary. Amber Rudd, who is regarded as one of the more

liberal members of the Cabinet, prompted dramatic headlines on

immigration at the Tory conference last month. Companies would be

forced to provide lists of their overseas workers. So how did this

idea came to cause and the right and the government such grief, even

though the Home Secretary never actually meant the Hollande

mentioned it in her speech? The proposal was buried in the

Conservative briefing note which explained how the government would

seek to reduce the number of overseas workers, the document

suggested that companies could be asked to sit out the proportion of

their workforce, that is international. The proposal was met

with howls of rage that this mild-mannered Remain campaign had

taken an uncharacteristic turn to the right. Some are saying you are

encouraging people to say, go home, you are doing my job. But isn't that

disgraceful? The fact is, we should be able to have a conversation about

immigration. Even Angela Merkel voiced concerns, according to one

business leaders who met the German Chancellor recently. When she

referred to specifically was some unhelpful statements from Brussels,

and of course also the concept of listing foreign workers, in this

country, which I think would be a very stupid idea. Amber Rudd is

immensely frustrated that her first few months as Home Secretary have

been soured by what she regards as inaccurate reporting on something

she never actually said. Under the proposals, they would be no list of

foreign workers published on the idea is aimed at non-EU migrants.

Finally, the Home Office say there is an innocent thought behind all of

this. They want to identify those sections of the economy dominated by

foreign workers to allow the British government to target resources to

train up British workers to do those jobs. But the proposal has caused

alarm. I think it was perceived very negatively because it's seen as

inappropriate, far right statement, which is very unnecessary. It was

politically a mistake possibly, it's not clear how it ended up coming

into the open but definitely, it's something which I think is unhelpful

and also really silly. David Cameron's Circle, who have not

forgiven Theresa May per the way in which she distanced herself from her

predecessor, have watched the furore with wry amusement, chiefly pointing

out that the Prime Minister seemed rather keen on the other day was

Home Secretary. The jibes and criticism have a the raw nerve in

Downing Street and the Home Office. Number ten denies that Theresa May

was rebuffed by David Cameron, and Amber Rudd is having to battle

against a perception that she is unable to establish her distinctive

approach because she is bound by her predecessor's agenda. The Home

Office is bullish, but Amber Rudd didn't raise any objections when the

front-page headlines were put to her on the morning after her speech.

British gymnast Louis Smith has been given a two month ban

by British gymnastics, for mocking Islam.

His punishment has attracted a good deal of controversy.

Was Louis Smith simply mocking religion, which you are surely

allowed to do in private; or was it more insidious?

The video was brought to the world by the Sun.

Well, it's probably not reasonable to sanction Smith for simply causing

offence to someone - some people are easily offended.

But was this a beyond a line - not just offensive to a few people,

but a breach of some kind of broad social rule?

We had a bit of debate in the office, and inevitably found

that we were all citing examples of things that may or may not

So we thought we might test the principles

I'm joined by the writer and broadcaster Emma Dabiri

What was your take about Louis Smith, did he deserve a sanction? I

think it's important to send a message that this type of discourse

is problematic and there is some sort of penalty that will occur. I

also feel that sometimes focusing too much on these top of individual

outbursts, maybe at the expense of looking more at the culture that

creates this type of attitude... The causes as well as the consequences.

What did you think? It's not very nice, sure, it's quite offensive and

reprints of the blood worthy of sanctions? I don't know. We're not

going to exchange Christmas cards! But I'm not that be burning in the

effigies. That is look at one of our clips and see what you think of it.

This is Robin Clinton in a pastiche of the Church of England. -- Robin

Atkinson. And when the steward

of the feast did taste of the water from the pots,

it had become wine. And they applauded

loudly in the kitchen. And they said unto the Lord,

"How the hell did you do that?" And enquired of Him,

"Do you do children's parties?" The viewfinder when using? That

wasn't particularly to my taste, I didn't find it amusing, nor did I

find it offensive. Why is that less offensive, he was imitating the

language and style and diction of the Church of England, the ritual,

it was similar to Louis Smith? I can see you wouldn't put it in the same

category, can you say why? It's about who is performing it can he is

British and sending up British traditions to a British audience. So

it's more of an inside joke. They are all part of that culture, so

it's not somebody of a different culture... Mocking that one. Even if

you don't like the humour or the subject matter, you have to admire

the skill, the delivery. Did I see you laughing? I cracked a couple of

smiles. I am a huge fan of his, even though that's not my favourite joke

years ever told, I loved the way he tells it and the way he is playing

with language and his expression, it's something to be admired. He is

an atheist, mocking the Church of England. He is not an insider

committee is racially but he is not one of them, he is one outside them.

I guess it's the same. It's still the religion of the country, of

which he is from. It is a softer approach as well. So I think the

incident, that was reported in the sun, might be different, even if

they were Muslims themselves, if they were sending it up... They

probably wouldn't be in the same way. I wouldn't imagine! That go to

the second exhibit, a tiny clip from the Book of Mormon. The most

irreligious... It also marks the people of sub-Saharan Africa.

In this part of Africa, we all have a saying -

whenever something bad happens, we just throw our hands to

Does it mean no worries for the rest of our days?

I have seen that show and it has audiences laughing very loudly. I've

seen it too, you notice the people walk out as well. Did you find it

funny? I really wanted to like it but it struck a weird chord with me

and I couldn't reconcile it. I am not telling anybody not to watch it,

got great reviews, if you can handle it, enjoy it.

It's reinforcing the same old tired stereotypes we see all the time. I

don't see what's humourous, it's the same narrative. In it was about

Americans, you might like at the bit about the Mormons or maybe not. It's

because black Africa is poorer and it has less power in the world and

less voice, is that perhaps what makes it more offensive than... ? It

is poorer and has less power that's often as a direct result of the

actions of certain parts of the world. So for then those parts of

the world to attempt to present that in a humourous way is quite

sickening. It's interesting that they don't black up white people in

that show. They use black people to play the black parts. Again it's

interesting to know that sending up the Africans in any way is secondary

to the sending up of the Mormon faith in that show, Ifwecan you

follow it through it can be offensive. So much offence in that

show. Let's take the third one. This is a comedian who has put a

stereotypical gay voice over the words of Donald Trump. This is all

over the internet. Using the actual Trump words, but with a gay voice.

You have to see it to understand what I mean. Here it is.

So get the wrestlers up here, come on, fellas,

I said to a couple of them, they weigh

half my weight, do you think I could take him?

The other guys said no, sir, I am sorry.

Undefeated team from the University of Iowa.

This used to be called gay Trump. It's been relabed sassy Trump. I

suspect it was a bit less potentially homophobic. Do you want

to... You have shown us four clips and they're all targeting a specific

sect in society. A lot of people find them funny, a lot don't. People

who find them offensive don't have to engage with them. Don't you find

that offensive Personally, I didn't find it offensive. If they were, I

would hate for them to think less of anybody enjoying the clip because I

feel it's easy, there's so much options in terms of comedy out

there, you don't have to engage with the first thing you see. I am not

sure how much I buy that argument saying if you don't like this you

don't have to engage with it because I think some of the things, some of

the clips we saw are actually spreading quite pernicious and

problematic narratives that have an effect on people's lives and how

people are viewed and treated in society. You are basically saying

nothing really that has any element of stereotyping or mocking of

anything, of a group which is perhaps excluded or has a history of

exclusion s that the rule as you see it and isn't that restrictive?

That's actually not what I am saying. That's not what I am saying

at all. I think you have to look at the power dynamics of who is

enacting the humour and who it's being kind of enacted upon. Maybe

that's it. It's the context. If it was a KKK person doing it it's never

going to be funny. And if it's Nelson Mandela doing it... I am

about freedom of speech. If you are not going to let people have a forum

to express, however distasteful, as a Muslim comic I have seen

distasteful things. They'll find other forms of putting it out, in an

underground way or somewhere on the internet. It breeds a second source

of resentment if you don't let them have an outlet. We have to leave it

there. Thank you both very much. It's a Smith themed

programme tonight. We've had Louis, and we now bring

you The Smiths, or at least, Thanks to his guitar

and the mordant lyrics of the gladioli-wielding Morrissey,

the Smiths became one of our best-loved bands with unlikely hits

like Heaven Knows I'm Miserable Now But the Smiths broke up three

decades ago and Marr has since worked with everybody

who's anybody in music, including Keith Richards,

Bryan Ferry and The Pretenders. He's been revisiting his career

in a new memoir, Set The Boy Free and revealing the words of comfort

that Paul McCartney gave him about bands breaking up

to our very own Smith - # I was happy in a haze of a drunken

hour but heaven knows I'm miserable now...

I think there is an idea of the Smiths being completely mired in

subterfuge and manipulation and 15ly neurotic. The things that were in

us, desperation, more importantly, a really poetic vision, idealism and

romanticism of pop culture. What a song can do to a person and we both

had exactly in the same way. # Heaven knows I'm miserable now.

When that happens and he could write lyrics and I could write music and

we really complemented each other very, very well.

I'd like to ask you some guitar questions. My friend, Geoff

Morrison, of Geoff Morrison and the Thigh Scratchers, I don't know if

you are familiar... How are they doing They do very well. They play

to pubs in the Surrey area. He wanted to know when you learned

guitar who did you copy? I started off copying Marc Bolan.

First stuff that I learned to play was the Marc Bolan singles. I would

try and work out the entire song so a song like, a good example would

be, All the Young Dudes. I would work out the chords first and the

chords were just as exciting for me to learn than the lead part.

And Noel Gallagher of Oasis in his turn borrowed from Jonny Marr,

including a guitar. Or two. I got a phone call from the office

one day saying that Oasis had been in a fight with the audience in

Newcastle on the stage and I thought, OK. Where are we going with

this? The guitar had been damaged. What do you want me to do about it?

Have you got another one? He was used to a Les Paul so I got the one

that I did The Queen is Dead On and sent it up to Newcastle with a

little note that said, it's a lot heavier in weight and sound, but if

you get a good swing on it you will take someone's head off.

It's a bit like Excalibur finding its rightful place or is that

fanciful? No, he did tell that tale in the style of he and I meeting up

on a grassy knoll with a full moon at midnight and me saying here, they

will bring you heavy licks. Something along that and then we

drank the blood of a grupy which is the way the story goes.

- groupie. Since the Smiths broke up 30-odd

years ago, Jonny Marr has had no shortage of famous friends to make

music with but in the immediate aftermath he turned for advice to

the most famous friend of all. I was playing with Paul McCartney all day

and it was a fantastic music. It was a real experience, as one would

imagine. Then we took a break. I thought, OK, I am sat in the

presence of the one person who could really, really give me some insight

into this situation, you know. The man who's been defined by

songwriting partnership and if anyone can give me some advice, it's

him. So, I told him what had been going on and he took a minute and he

looked at me and he paused and he said, that's bands for you!

Actually, it's probably, I haven't really thought of a better way of

putting it. # What difference does it make.

Could this band ever get back together? In his book Set The Boy

Free Marr reveals he and Morrissey discussed it in a pub eight years

ago. We just started talking about how if it could be done, how it

could be done. In that moment it was a very exciting nice prospect

because it was about friendship, you know. Me and my friend, you know.

And we talked about it for a bit how it could be done. With enthusiasm?

Yeah, with enthusiasm, yeah, absolutely. We were in touch for a

few days and it was very friendly and nice and funny. Then I went away

with me and the cribs were doing dates in south America and then the

communication stopped for a while then. Which wasn't really a

surprise. Let's put it this way, it wasn't as big a surprise as actually

getting together. Coming up to that special time of

year, did you ever think about a Smiths Christmas single? No, but...

That would have been something, wouldn't it? Yeah. I am seeing it,

maybe we should reform for that. Scrooge-like but maybe with a nice

warm afterglow finish. . Forget the afterglow, I am with you on Scrooge

thing, I like the twist. Yeah, I wish you a miserable Christmas.

Steve Smith. You were deprived out

of Hallowe'en playout last night But anyway it wasn't as good

as the weather forecast on Gaelic Good evening. Colder weather is on

the way but I don't want to exaggerate it too much.