Browse content similar to 22/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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We used to know where we were with this guy. | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
It was about rescuing the nation's finances... | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
No unfunded spending, no irresponsible extra borrowing... | :00:10. | :00:25. | |
But will a new regime bring new priorities? | :00:26. | :00:26. | |
Ahead of Phillip Hammond's first Autumn Statement, we ask who he is - | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
And we get a glimpse into his formative years. | :00:31. | :00:34. | |
I think what we've seen with the new government is, | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
understandably, a change of tone and a desire to draw a contrast | :00:37. | :00:39. | |
Philip Hammond's contribution to that, early on in his | :00:40. | :00:43. | |
chancellorship, he talked about a reset of fiscal policy. | :00:44. | :00:45. | |
I think people probably overinterpreted too much meaning | :00:46. | :00:47. | |
We got hold of half a bottle of sherry and proceeded to drink it. | :00:48. | :00:53. | |
Very randomly, we ended up having a bit of a cheeky snog! | :00:54. | :01:05. | |
Hail Trump! Hail our people! Hail victory! | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
As footage emerges of neo Nazis celebrating Trump's election, | :01:09. | :01:10. | |
we ask the former deputy secretary of state where US | :01:11. | :01:13. | |
Finally, come's America in photographs. We talked to the former | :01:14. | :01:22. | |
Wall Street trader who took them. When anonymous Cabinet colleagues | :01:23. | :01:30. | |
reportedly described the Chancellor of the Exchequer as "arguing | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
like an accountant, seeing the risk of everything" last month, | :01:34. | :01:36. | |
it was, somewhat strangely, Tomorrow, when Philip Hammond | :01:37. | :01:40. | |
delivers his first Autumn Statement, we should get the strongest | :01:41. | :01:47. | |
indication yet of whether this alleged caution will prove to be | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
a strength or a weakness in these The scariest Brexit-related | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
predictions may not have immediately come true but the Treasury's | :01:55. | :01:58. | |
goalposts have already moved quite a lot since George Osborne moved out | :01:59. | :02:00. | |
of Number 11. Deficit reduction is no longer | :02:01. | :02:07. | |
the top priority and apart from Jams - that's families who are just | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
about managing, and our report later tonight into spiralling food | :02:11. | :02:13. | |
prices won't provide them with much comfort - | :02:14. | :02:15. | |
it's not clear yet In a moment we'll take a good look | :02:16. | :02:18. | |
at the character of the man delivering the Autumn statement - | :02:19. | :02:25. | |
and the political journey he's made. First, though, Newsnight's Chris | :02:26. | :02:29. | |
Cook has been considering the scale One word above all defined the last | :02:30. | :02:31. | |
six years of government. The largest budget deficit of any | :02:32. | :02:43. | |
economy in Europe... George Osborne's intention | :02:44. | :02:45. | |
in 2010 was to almost close By now, the squeezing on spending | :02:46. | :03:01. | |
and tax was supposed The deficit last year | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
was still 3.8% of GDP. So we're two to three years behind | :03:07. | :03:15. | |
on a target set only six years ago. That also means that the stock | :03:16. | :03:22. | |
of public borrowing hasn't stayed Our stock of debt was supposed | :03:23. | :03:24. | |
to touch just 70% of GDP Well, the Brexit vote is expected | :03:25. | :03:31. | |
to weigh on short-term growth. The average economic forecast back | :03:32. | :03:43. | |
in June projected our economy The average dole claim projections | :03:44. | :03:45. | |
for next year were about 710,000 people, now they're | :03:46. | :03:55. | |
about 830,000 people. Well this line shows how | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
the Government had reduced the deficit and what it expected | :04:00. | :04:09. | |
to happen to the deficit in the coming years, | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
measured in billions of pounds. The Treasury expected | :04:13. | :04:14. | |
us to hit its target for moving from a deficit | :04:15. | :04:16. | |
to a surplus in 2019-20. Now, this new line is | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
the Resolution Foundation's estimate of what that slightly slower growth | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
will do to those projections, And you can see that the deficit | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
doesn't become a surplus Well, if the Chancellor | :04:26. | :04:31. | |
wants an overall surplus, austerity will need to be deeper, | :04:32. | :04:38. | |
or will have to continue for longer, The Government could slog on, | :04:39. | :04:41. | |
or it could change its fiscal rules in ways that would give it more room | :04:42. | :04:50. | |
to invest in infrastructure, But the key point is this - | :04:51. | :04:53. | |
this Autumn Statement will be Our political editor | :04:54. | :04:59. | |
Nick Watt is here. What have you learned? Think we can | :05:00. | :05:17. | |
be pretty sure we will be talking about that group of people you have | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
just mentioned, the Jams. These are people just about managing, and they | :05:23. | :05:25. | |
have been identified by Downing Street as the key group of voters in | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
need of help. There have been some tensions between Number 10 and 11 | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
Downing Street over this. Philip Hammond has been saying that the | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
first responsibility is to ensure financial stability. But he has come | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
round to Theresa May's mission. You will see some measures relatively | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
modest. It will be interesting, one thing to look at tomorrow is | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
something we recently highlighted on Newsnight. There is going to be a | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
modest reduction in George Osborne's planned cuts to Universal Credit. | :05:56. | :06:02. | |
What that will mean, as lope bus-load paid workers with more | :06:03. | :06:08. | |
hours, their benefits will be reduced at a more modest and slower | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
rate. The first fiscal event, in Treasury speak, since the Brexit | :06:13. | :06:15. | |
vote, it really is a huge moment for Theresa May's government. We thought | :06:16. | :06:20. | |
we would take an in-depth look at the character and journey that has | :06:21. | :06:23. | |
brought Philip Hammond to the job he always dreamt of having, in | :06:24. | :06:25. | |
circumstances he never envisaged would happen. I must warn you, this | :06:26. | :06:33. | |
film does contain detail of his disco days. | :06:34. | :06:35. | |
Until now, we've known him as the dull man of British politics. | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
Spreadsheet Phil, even to his friends. | :06:41. | :06:42. | |
Philip Hammond has risen with barely a trace but today he is | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
emerging as one of the central figures as a new order judders into | :06:48. | :06:50. | |
Since his days as a teenager in Essex there | :06:51. | :06:57. | |
Philip, the deadly serious student, businessman | :06:58. | :07:00. | |
and politician, and then there is Phil, the resourceful entrepreneur | :07:01. | :07:02. | |
and charmer with a twinkle in the eye. | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
Suburban Essex may not have felt that it was quite at the centre of | :07:08. | :07:17. | |
Luckily, a schoolboy entrepreneur and his | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
close friend were on hand to enliven the scene. | :07:21. | :07:26. | |
There was one disco that used to take place in Shenfield | :07:27. | :07:28. | |
I sort of said to him, we could do that. | :07:29. | :07:34. | |
And so, to cut a long story short, Philip hired a hall, sold tickets, | :07:35. | :07:44. | |
asked me if I'd DJ, and I was getting my | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
whatever it was, 20 quid or something, for DJing. | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
And Philip was just making a fortune! | :07:52. | :07:58. | |
Even as a teenager, Philip Hammond was showing characteristics that | :07:59. | :08:00. | |
That would be the sort of thing that I'd | :08:01. | :08:07. | |
But if it hadn't got a Phoenix stamp on it, it | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
Philip Hammond stamped all of the records owned by the business, | :08:12. | :08:15. | |
even though they were in the care of his mate. | :08:16. | :08:18. | |
He once said to me that he wanted to be a millionaire. | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
I think he said by the time he was 30. | :08:22. | :08:23. | |
And I think he did actually achieve that in the end. | :08:24. | :08:26. | |
I remember going round to his house once. | :08:27. | :08:28. | |
We got hold of half a bottle of sherry. | :08:29. | :08:30. | |
And very randomly, we ended up having a bit | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
Who'd have thought that Philip Hammond was such a good kisser? | :08:34. | :08:49. | |
He used to wear, as memory serves, quite a long black leather coat. | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
And he had very long jet black hair that | :08:53. | :08:55. | |
kind of hung like crows wings down past his shoulders. | :08:56. | :08:57. | |
He was very distinctive to look at, very tall, | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
I can remember that in history classes for example he | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
would come in with his Daily Telegraph. | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
He always would finish his classwork ahead of everybody else. | :09:10. | :09:11. | |
And he put his big boots up on the desk | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
and he would start reading the Telegraph. | :09:16. | :09:17. | |
And swapping political dialogue with our history teacher, | :09:18. | :09:18. | |
And usually towards the end of the class | :09:19. | :09:25. | |
they would swap papers and then they would sort of score jolly | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
points off each other, making political points. | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
But I do seem to remember him talking about the joys | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
And the fact that one shouldn't feel guilty | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
At Oxford, the political geek was in his element. | :09:40. | :09:42. | |
Here he is watching the seminal debate at the Oxford union in 1975, | :09:43. | :09:45. | |
days before Britain first voted on its relationship with Europe. | :09:46. | :09:50. | |
It took another two decades after making millions in business | :09:51. | :09:52. | |
before Philip Hammond finally answered his true calling. | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
In 1993, a familiar figure was watching. | :09:57. | :10:04. | |
There is a whole subclass of the population which no longer | :10:05. | :10:07. | |
understands the distinction between right and wrong, | :10:08. | :10:08. | |
Philip Hammond was not elected to parliament until his early 40s. | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
It is better they wonder why you do not speak then | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
And he watched as youngsters such as George Osborne overtook him. | :10:17. | :10:23. | |
His breakthrough came when George Osborne appointed him | :10:24. | :10:25. | |
as his deputy in the opposition Treasury team way | :10:26. | :10:28. | |
Newsnight understands that the future Chancellor almost | :10:29. | :10:32. | |
quit the front bench at that point because the new post | :10:33. | :10:35. | |
But he stayed on after he was tipped off about the move, giving him time | :10:36. | :10:41. | |
to reflect on how it might eventually taking closer | :10:42. | :10:43. | |
Something that always struck me back then was I think it | :10:44. | :10:51. | |
been very easy for someone in Philip Hammond's | :10:52. | :10:54. | |
position being brought in as George Osborne's deputy, | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
even though he was a decade older than him, to bear some | :11:00. | :11:02. | |
I think that he understood that this was a balanced ticket, as you talk | :11:03. | :11:08. | |
That George was younger, more political, | :11:09. | :11:10. | |
there was a driving force behind the leadership and Philip | :11:11. | :11:13. | |
In the lengthy years of opposition and | :11:14. | :11:21. | |
early days of government, Philip Hammond was | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
seen as something of a dry Eurosceptic Thatcherite. | :11:26. | :11:27. | |
He was critical of the decision to legalise | :11:28. | :11:29. | |
same-sex marriage and on Europe some colleagues thought the man now | :11:30. | :11:32. | |
dubbed the Secretary of State for soft Brexit might even support | :11:33. | :11:35. | |
The Philip Hammond I knew was a pretty Eurosceptic | :11:36. | :11:48. | |
individual and certainly one who I thought | :11:49. | :11:49. | |
would not make the change he | :11:50. | :11:51. | |
He is a very pragmatic figure indeed. | :11:52. | :11:53. | |
I assume the Foreign Office has worked its usual magic on | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
people and he has seen the importance of changing your mind | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
And now he is indeed, appears to be to the outside | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
world, leading the drive for soft Brexit. | :12:03. | :12:04. | |
Rather than the hard Brexit you might have expected some years | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
But close friends say he was never an outer, just | :12:08. | :12:14. | |
a classic sceptic who wanted to see the EU reform. | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
There's been a widespread misunderstanding of | :12:18. | :12:18. | |
the Conservative Eurosceptic position. | :12:19. | :12:19. | |
The classic Eurosceptic position which Philip I think | :12:20. | :12:21. | |
wholeheartedly held and 85% of the party, | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
was that we are cautious of Europe, we think it needs reform, | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
Finally at the age of 60 and after 19 years in | :12:30. | :12:41. | |
Parliament, Philip Hammond secures dream job when his Oxford | :12:42. | :12:43. | |
contemporary Theresa May appointed him as her Chancellor in the summer. | :12:44. | :12:47. | |
Friends say the Chancellor regards himself as more of a finance | :12:48. | :12:50. | |
minister than some grand political figure who meddles | :12:51. | :12:53. | |
His primary aim is to ensure financial stability, for now | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
that means resetting the dial on the economy by abandoning George | :12:59. | :13:01. | |
Osborne's plan to achieve an overall budget surplus by 2020. | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
One Osborne ally believes the Autumn Statement | :13:08. | :13:08. | |
will actually mark continuity with the old regime. | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
I think what we've seen with the new government | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
understandably is a change of tone and a desire to draw a contrast with | :13:17. | :13:19. | |
And Philip Hammond's contribution to that early | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
on in his chancellorship, he talked about a reset of fiscal | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
policy and I think people probably overinterpreted too much meaning | :13:28. | :13:29. | |
The reality on substance I think is largely | :13:30. | :13:36. | |
continuity, particularly Philip Hammond himself is a fairly | :13:37. | :13:38. | |
He believes in balanced budgets and I think | :13:39. | :13:47. | |
that we will see evidence of that in the Autumn Statement this week. | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
Phil Philip Hammond knows that | :13:51. | :13:52. | |
his success will depend in large part on maintaining a constructive | :13:53. | :13:54. | |
As passing acquaintances at Oxford, they have an effective, though not | :13:55. | :14:02. | |
He is dismissive of her approach on immigration and I have learned | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
that the Treasury has been irritated by | :14:07. | :14:08. | |
briefings that the Chancellor is wary of the Prime Minister's mission | :14:09. | :14:10. | |
The people who are just about managing. | :14:11. | :14:19. | |
Philip Hammond sees some merit in this idea, but he has reminded | :14:20. | :14:22. | |
Number Ten that his first priority must be to ensure financial | :14:23. | :14:24. | |
The two Oxford contemporaries know their government | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
will ultimately be defined by how successfully they navigate the UK | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
Newsnight understands that the Chancellor has | :14:34. | :14:36. | |
He is unimpressed by what he regards as the excessively optimistic claims | :14:37. | :14:46. | |
of Brexiteer Minister Boris Johnson and Liam Fox. | :14:47. | :14:48. | |
And he fears that the UK could tumble out of the EU in a hard | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
Friends say he is so concerned about business uncertainty | :14:53. | :14:55. | |
that he believes that the UK should negotiate a transitional deal | :14:56. | :14:58. | |
to cover future trading relations at the same time | :14:59. | :15:00. | |
Theresa May appeared to float this idea yesterday. | :15:01. | :15:09. | |
It is clear that one of the things that Philip is increasingly | :15:10. | :15:14. | |
coming to the realisation, is that we may need to put in place | :15:15. | :15:17. | |
transitional arrangements so that negotiations do not have to stop | :15:18. | :15:20. | |
It may well be in our national interests | :15:21. | :15:26. | |
to continue those negotiations for some time to get | :15:27. | :15:28. | |
While the Chancellor is wary of Liam Fox and | :15:29. | :15:35. | |
Boris Johnson, he has formed an alliance with the third | :15:36. | :15:38. | |
Friends say he regards the Brexit secretary as a grown-up, immersing | :15:39. | :15:50. | |
himself in the gritty detail of his job. Britain will have its first | :15:51. | :15:57. | |
proper introduction to data the two Philip Hammond 's. Spreadsheet | :15:58. | :16:02. | |
Philip might be the man for the moment as finances and a bumpy | :16:03. | :16:06. | |
phase. But Phil, the confident charmer, will need all his political | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
wiles to survive the choppy Brexit waters ahead. | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
We're joined by the Conservative MP Heidi Allen and Labour's shadow | :16:15. | :16:16. | |
Minister for Industrial Strategy, Chi Onwurah. | :16:17. | :16:23. | |
You have got to cheer your man to the rafters tomorrow, that is how it | :16:24. | :16:30. | |
works. But what are you hoping to see? We're getting ready some big | :16:31. | :16:36. | |
clues about what we're likely to tomorrow. I have been campaigning | :16:37. | :16:42. | |
hard to reverse the damage done to the universal credit system last | :16:43. | :16:49. | |
year. I'm hearing ?1 billion putting in to reducing the harsher rates. | :16:50. | :16:53. | |
Given the fiscal climate and the fact that we are to lift the | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
national minimum wage, it is not bad. It had been suggested that 2 | :16:59. | :17:06. | |
billion was the figure that would make a meaningful difference. 2 | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
billion would have fully reversed all the changes put into work | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
allowances. That goes some way, though not as much as I would have | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
liked. But given the economic situation we are still in with the | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
deficit and the debt, we have got to be a bit realistic. But if they're | :17:25. | :17:28. | |
bumping up the national minimum wage. I've also heard that letting | :17:29. | :17:34. | |
agencies will be banned for people ranting in the private market. Just | :17:35. | :17:40. | |
to focus on the broader economic picture. Your maiden speech focused | :17:41. | :17:49. | |
on universal credit. And people afterwards questioned why you were a | :17:50. | :18:00. | |
Conservative! I think it is an old-fashioned view perhaps of where | :18:01. | :18:03. | |
the Tory party, what people thought it was. It is changing. I would not | :18:04. | :18:08. | |
have joint if I had thought it was going to continue in that way. But | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
Theresa May is pushing that new broom. I just do not like the term | :18:14. | :18:29. | |
JAMs. I know what the term means to me, it means the people that used to | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
work with me at Royal Mail who just about every day, would make ends | :18:34. | :18:38. | |
meet. It is money hand to mouth, choosing whether to put on the | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
heating or do their shopping. A basic thing. These are the people I | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
am fighting for as many of us are across the whole house. So the | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
squeezed middle. Even less than that, people on very low incomes. | :18:53. | :18:58. | |
Are we seeing the ghost of Ed Miliband appearing in these | :18:59. | :19:00. | |
conservative economic policies? I think Theresa May is challenging -- | :19:01. | :19:09. | |
channelling much of Ed Miliband's policy and the squeezed middle has | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
extended to incorporate many more people. Since the financial crisis | :19:14. | :19:19. | |
we have bad actors incomes staying the same. -- average incomes. Many | :19:20. | :19:26. | |
people are worse off today, we had wasted six years and is why Philip | :19:27. | :19:33. | |
Hammond needs to set out his fiscal plans and how we're going to see | :19:34. | :19:37. | |
growth, sustainable growth back in the economy. In the face of huge | :19:38. | :19:44. | |
uncertainty that we have proposed Brexit and post-Trump. And if he | :19:45. | :19:50. | |
sets out fiscal plans and they bear a passing resemblance to the | :19:51. | :19:53. | |
manifesto that you fought the let's bash the last election on, where | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
does that leave the labour economic policies? The Tories are failing by | :20:00. | :20:09. | |
their own targets, we had 711 ?50 billion added to the national debt | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
at the same time as people have got poorer. So everyone around the | :20:15. | :20:18. | |
country who sweated blood and tears for its charity is now worse off. | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
That is the key difference between us. But also, Theresa May talked | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
about industrial strategy yesterday but we had no idea what she means by | :20:28. | :20:33. | |
that. What she announced, and industrial challenge fund of some | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
amount in four years, that is not an industrial strategy. And the failure | :20:39. | :20:45. | |
of George Osborne's economic has convinced the Conservative Party we | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
need an industrial strategy and need the state to intervene and ensure | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
sustainable growth, but still to see any indication of specific measures | :20:53. | :20:58. | |
to support our industry and investment. In the meantime you | :20:59. | :21:05. | |
would welcome this taper on the universal credit. Absolutely, it was | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
obscene that the poorest in our communities, 50% of children in | :21:11. | :21:16. | |
households on universal credit, it seemed they were paying the price of | :21:17. | :21:19. | |
austerity. This does not fully address that, but it is better than | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
nothing and we are glad that they are reflecting that. Osbournomics | :21:25. | :21:39. | |
has been absolutely busted. Six years in Downing Street and now his | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
predecessor has given up on it. What you say to the people who had wage | :21:45. | :21:49. | |
freezes because austerity was the answer to the deficit, who may have | :21:50. | :21:53. | |
lost their jobs in the public sector because austerity was the answer to | :21:54. | :21:56. | |
the deficit, people who have really been squeezed, as a direct result of | :21:57. | :22:04. | |
the policy is your party enacted. It is not fair to say it is just | :22:05. | :22:07. | |
because the policies that were enacted. George Osborne said it is | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
the poorest that suffer when deficits are high. Now Philip | :22:13. | :22:17. | |
Hammond is saying deficit reduction cannot be the top priority. So just | :22:18. | :22:23. | |
let those two together, the poor will suffer more. Whilst I prefer a | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
relaxation, that we will not aim for a surplus in this Parliament, I | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
think it is right that we release the pressure just a little because | :22:34. | :22:36. | |
it was becoming unbearable. And I believe under the previous | :22:37. | :22:43. | |
administration it was all about the production of the deficit almost to | :22:44. | :22:46. | |
the cost of everything else. So it is right that we release that. But | :22:47. | :22:52. | |
not just George Osborne policies, this has been a difficult period | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
across the world not just for our country. And it is turbulent. My | :22:56. | :23:00. | |
worry with Brexit is that it will get more turbulence so I'm glad to | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
get this extra cash to help them right back. Looking back at that | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
comment about high deficit hitting the poorest hardest, are you | :23:11. | :23:15. | |
suggesting that your colleagues who advocated Brexit have not -- have | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
caused people to suffer more in the short-term at least? I'm hoping | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
absolutely not. I know what I'm fearing, but Britain is a resilient | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
country and I suspect we are all adjusting. My constituents wanted to | :23:30. | :23:35. | |
remain but we've got to accept the decision and I know it is a tired | :23:36. | :23:39. | |
phrase, but this is what British people do. The Prime Minister has | :23:40. | :23:48. | |
announced ?2 million going into research and development and size | :23:49. | :23:53. | |
funding. We have the innovation and that translates into jobs. There's | :23:54. | :23:57. | |
not enough money to go around and it is finding that balance. Thank you | :23:58. | :23:59. | |
very much. They called it Project Fear | :24:00. | :24:01. | |
during the referendum campaign but there are signs that some | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
of the warnings of post-Brexit economic trouble may be | :24:05. | :24:06. | |
crystallising into Project Fact. Credit Suisse published its annual | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
Global Wealth report today and estimated that Britain is one | :24:11. | :24:14. | |
and a half trillion dollars poorer in dollar terms due to the fall | :24:15. | :24:17. | |
in the pound since the vote to leave But even if you're not one of those | :24:18. | :24:21. | |
people who don't trust experts, it's hard to see a number of that | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
magnitude, my ten-year-old tells me there are twelve noughts | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
in a trillion, in the context Much closer to home, | :24:32. | :24:33. | |
Newsnight has been told that because of the value of sterling, | :24:34. | :24:39. | |
food prices are likely to rise by more than 5% over | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
the next six months - We may not be a nation | :24:43. | :24:46. | |
of shopkeepers, but we are a nation Savouring the memories | :24:47. | :24:56. | |
of products from the past, days when Smash meant potato | :24:57. | :25:02. | |
and instant coffee Grocery shopping is at the very | :25:03. | :25:05. | |
heart of our life. We all need the basics | :25:06. | :25:11. | |
of life, we have to eat. But the cost of those essentials | :25:12. | :25:14. | |
is critical to the economy. The more we spend on the weekly | :25:15. | :25:18. | |
shop, the less we've got left It's easy to be nostalgic | :25:19. | :25:21. | |
about Spangles and old brands. The fact is, back then in the 70s | :25:22. | :25:28. | |
and 80s, your supermarket shop would take up a much bigger chunk | :25:29. | :25:34. | |
of your money than it does now. In fact, over the past few years, | :25:35. | :25:38. | |
food prices have actually But now, following Brexit, | :25:39. | :25:40. | |
while the pound has weakened, that means ingredients and packaging | :25:41. | :25:50. | |
that come from abroad have So, someone is going to have to soak | :25:51. | :25:53. | |
up those increased costs. That's either the supplier, | :25:54. | :25:56. | |
the retailer or us, the customers. This man knows the answers | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
better than most. Justin King ran Sainsbury's | :26:00. | :26:01. | |
for a decade, during which time sales grew, | :26:02. | :26:04. | |
but prices stayed flat. He thinks the fall of | :26:05. | :26:07. | |
the pound now is bound to Something of around 40% to 50% | :26:08. | :26:10. | |
of what we buy in the shops is sourced abroad in currency | :26:11. | :26:18. | |
other than the pound. With the current rate | :26:19. | :26:21. | |
of exchange, we could expect that to be about 10% more | :26:22. | :26:24. | |
expensive than a year's time. If that's about half | :26:25. | :26:31. | |
of what we buy, that means something in the order | :26:32. | :26:35. | |
of 5% inflation. After years of little or no | :26:36. | :26:36. | |
changes in price, that rise But it's a prediction | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
backed up by the group that oversees the whole British | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
food and drink industry. But I think some prices will have | :26:43. | :26:44. | |
risen between 5% and 8%. I think that's about | :26:45. | :26:52. | |
where the consensus lays. We've heard about battles | :26:53. | :26:54. | |
involving Marmite and Toblerone, but not all suppliers | :26:55. | :26:56. | |
are multinational giants. Many are small companies, | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
having to deal with a trading environment | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
that has been mixed up. Raw material costs have gone up | :27:05. | :27:06. | |
considerably since the 23rd of June. That is something we | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
are having to manage. And they haven't gone up a little | :27:11. | :27:13. | |
bit, they've gone We buy all our raw materials | :27:14. | :27:15. | |
in dollars or euros. So, we don't want to pass that cost | :27:16. | :27:20. | |
onto the consumer, but we can't | :27:21. | :27:22. | |
absorb everything. We are having to look at ways | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
to manage through cost So, the challenge is | :27:27. | :27:29. | |
how to find creative ways to avoid passing on rising | :27:30. | :27:34. | |
costs to price conscious customers. We could buy from the UK, | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
rather than buying abroad. So we are looking at producing | :27:40. | :27:42. | |
a hedgerow smoothie at the moment, and all | :27:43. | :27:45. | |
the fruit comes just from the UK. Christmas is the busiest time | :27:46. | :27:51. | |
of the year for retailers, glossy Justin King thinks many are simply | :27:52. | :27:54. | |
holding off inevitable price rises. When I think back to the financial | :27:55. | :28:04. | |
crisis of 2007-8, there was a lot of conversation at that time | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
about why we weren't immediately seeing the effects on the consumer | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
and consumer behaviour. It actually took the best part of 18 | :28:14. | :28:16. | |
months, maybe closer to two It was 2010 before we saw consumers | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
start to change the way that they shopped, batten | :28:20. | :28:31. | |
down the hatches a bit. I think that's the timelines | :28:32. | :28:33. | |
we are talking about. Big, famous shops don't | :28:34. | :28:35. | |
have a divine right to exist. Woolworths and BHS, | :28:36. | :28:38. | |
both testament to that. So, if there is a grocery battle | :28:39. | :28:39. | |
brewing, what determines The challenge is that the best run | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
businesses will be able They won't pass it all | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
onto customers, they will look Businesses that are already | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
stretched, already perhaps with lower margins, | :28:54. | :29:03. | |
perhaps with less strong relationships with customers, | :29:04. | :29:04. | |
they are the ones that are going to suffer in that environment, | :29:05. | :29:07. | |
because they will get squeezed in the jaws of not being able | :29:08. | :29:09. | |
to put prices up and costs Can you see a familiar High Street | :29:10. | :29:12. | |
name disappearing this time, because they just can't keep up | :29:13. | :29:19. | |
with this battle? I just can't tell you | :29:20. | :29:21. | |
which one it will be. It will become clear over time | :29:22. | :29:25. | |
who the winners and losers are. We have become very used | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
to very low food prices. But if these warnings are right, | :29:32. | :29:34. | |
they may soon become Time now for your Donald Trump news, | :29:35. | :29:37. | |
much of it culled from meeting at the New York Times earlier | :29:38. | :29:46. | |
which was scheduled, then cancelled, Tonight, the President Elect | :29:47. | :29:49. | |
believes that humankind has played Yesterday, of course, | :29:50. | :29:55. | |
he thought it was all a hoax He currently doesn't | :29:56. | :30:02. | |
want to prosecute Hillary Clinton. During the election campaign, | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
you'll recall, he insisted that she would be jailed | :30:09. | :30:10. | |
in the event of him winning and regularly encouraged supporters | :30:11. | :30:12. | |
to chant 'lock her up'. And while some of those supporters | :30:13. | :30:14. | |
chose to celebrate his victory in Washington this weekend by making | :30:15. | :30:19. | |
Nazi salutes and espousing undiluted white supremacism, | :30:20. | :30:22. | |
today he strongly condemned the so-called alt-right | :30:23. | :30:26. | |
extremists who nonetheless still consider his Chief of Staff, | :30:27. | :30:30. | |
Stephen Bannon, to be a sort of patron saint | :30:31. | :30:34. | |
of the whole movement. Here, in case you haven't seen it, | :30:35. | :30:37. | |
is the footage of a man called Richard Spencer, | :30:38. | :30:41. | |
who claims to have coined the very term alt-right, | :30:42. | :30:46. | |
addressing fellow fascists The mainstream media - | :30:47. | :30:47. | |
or perhaps we should refer to them Ambassador Wendy Sherman | :30:48. | :31:06. | |
is Senior Counselor, Albright Stonebridge Group | :31:07. | :31:18. | |
and was President Obama's Deputy She previously worked | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
as his Under Secretary of State I don't want to seem ungrateful for | :31:22. | :31:38. | |
you giving your time tonight, but are we wasting our time trying to | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
analyse Donald Trump at this point? It seems a little like trying to | :31:43. | :31:49. | |
nail jelly to the wall, or jello, as you would say? What has happened | :31:50. | :31:55. | |
here, and President Obama spoke on this when he met President-Elect | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
Trump, he is now coming to understand what it is to be | :31:59. | :32:01. | |
President of the United States. These issues are complex and there | :32:02. | :32:07. | |
is a reason why President Obama has proceeded in the way that he has. | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
Yes, I am glad that he has condemned the alt-right meeting that took | :32:12. | :32:15. | |
place. I would also like to apologise for all of the demeaning | :32:16. | :32:19. | |
things he said during the election that have many people in the streets | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
of my country very scared on a daily basis about what is going to happen | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
and whether their rights are going to be protected. I'm glad he said | :32:28. | :32:30. | |
that maybe humankind has something to do with climate, but I want to | :32:31. | :32:34. | |
make sure he is going to hold onto the climate accord which the whole | :32:35. | :32:39. | |
world has signed up to. I don't know that we are throwing spaghetti | :32:40. | :32:42. | |
against the wall, but I agree that we don't know exactly where we are | :32:43. | :32:48. | |
going to land and we will see whether as an intellect tramp really | :32:49. | :32:52. | |
becomes, in fullness, what is required of a President of the | :32:53. | :32:55. | |
United States. You mentioned the people living in fear of some of the | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
comments he made, or fear of the wrong locations of some of the | :33:00. | :33:02. | |
comments. Plenty of people cheered them. If he doesn't deliver on the | :33:03. | :33:06. | |
stuff that you worry about, would you not have a whole new raft of | :33:07. | :33:10. | |
worries that his supporters might have a grievance? Well, his | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
supporters may have a grievance, but they won the election and he is the | :33:16. | :33:21. | |
President-Elect, even Secretary Clinton got the majority of the | :33:22. | :33:24. | |
popular vote, as your viewers I am sure know by now. We have an | :33:25. | :33:28. | |
electoral college system, so small states get to have a say and states | :33:29. | :33:33. | |
cannot decide, through popular vote, who wins. We have a pretty divided | :33:34. | :33:38. | |
country in terms of the feelings here and what the President of the | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
United States is supposed to do is bring the country together. | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
President-Elect Trump has yet to do that, and to give reassurance to the | :33:47. | :33:52. | |
people that did not vote for him. I was glad on the night of the | :33:53. | :33:55. | |
election that he said he wanted to be President for all of America, but | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
he has yet to take the steps and say that things come in my view, that | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
will give the assurance they need. And we have to see what his policies | :34:04. | :34:06. | |
bring on issues like immigration, what he will do about taking on all | :34:07. | :34:14. | |
of the wealth at the top of our population, and not well distributed | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
throughout the population. There is a lot to be seen and a lot to come | :34:18. | :34:22. | |
ahead. We are all watching and waiting, and making sure that we | :34:23. | :34:25. | |
stayed, forthrightly, what is necessary to really be President of | :34:26. | :34:30. | |
the United States. Let's talk about the things we do know. I have been | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
swotting up on your speeches, in the context of international diplomacy, | :34:37. | :34:39. | |
when you were speaking in Geneva, just before the Iran negotiations | :34:40. | :34:45. | |
began in 2013, and then the Carnegie endowment for International peace in | :34:46. | :34:48. | |
February of last year. It's really boring, isn't it? A lot of this to | :34:49. | :34:52. | |
go see Asian, it is really detailed, and it demands a level of | :34:53. | :35:02. | |
application. -- it is really detailed and demands a level of | :35:03. | :35:05. | |
application that maybe he has not demonstrated. Can it be more like | :35:06. | :35:09. | |
Ronald Reagan, with people like you in the background doing the heavy | :35:10. | :35:13. | |
lifting? You can delegate, but you certainly have to have a grasp of | :35:14. | :35:25. | |
it. I picked up a copy of The Art Of The Deal, Donald Trump's book, | :35:26. | :35:29. | |
because I wanted to understand how he thought about things. Bradley, | :35:30. | :35:32. | |
doing a deal for a building is different from negotiating change | :35:33. | :35:34. | |
when it comes to international security. If a building doesn't get | :35:35. | :35:39. | |
built, a building doesn't get built. If the Iran negotiation had not been | :35:40. | :35:44. | |
successful, we might find ourselves at war. The stakes are quite | :35:45. | :35:50. | |
different. There are many people that have an interest in the | :35:51. | :35:53. | |
outcome. That agreement in particular was not just a bilateral | :35:54. | :35:58. | |
arrangement with the United States. It was an agreement reached with the | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
entire international community. Very briefly, the co-author said that | :36:03. | :36:10. | |
Trump will not just have his eye on closing down elements of the press | :36:11. | :36:14. | |
and the media, he would be keen to enact some sort of silencing of | :36:15. | :36:18. | |
freedom of speech. Do events today make that look a little bit | :36:19. | :36:23. | |
excessive? Well, to go back to your opening, James, for today, it makes | :36:24. | :36:27. | |
it look better. He actually had the meeting with the New York Times and | :36:28. | :36:30. | |
said the first Amendment was something nobody should worry about, | :36:31. | :36:35. | |
which is freedom of speech. He did and on the record interview with the | :36:36. | :36:38. | |
New York Times. But that is today. We need to see sustained openness. | :36:39. | :36:42. | |
Starting tomorrow. Thanks for your time this evening. | :36:43. | :36:44. | |
The forgotten corners and the forgotten people of America | :36:45. | :36:46. | |
have moved sharply into focus since Donald Trump's victory | :36:47. | :36:48. | |
and it's fair to say that most city dwellers - | :36:49. | :36:51. | |
not to mention most media professionals - | :36:52. | :36:52. | |
have been surprised by what they've seen. | :36:53. | :36:55. | |
In 2012, he turned his back on a 20-year career | :36:56. | :37:00. | |
as a Wall Street trader and, like a latter day William Hogarth, | :37:01. | :37:02. | |
set off with his camera to chronicle the oft-overlooked underbelly | :37:03. | :37:05. | |
In an exclusive film for Newsnight, here he shares some | :37:06. | :37:11. | |
I'm a photographer and writer and I spent the last two years talking to | :37:12. | :37:31. | |
voters, a lot of them Trump voters. They are people that feel very much | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
like the country has left them behind, economically and socially. | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
They feel very much like there is a sense of humiliation, a sense of | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
feeling very much like the world has humiliated them. With Trump, they | :37:43. | :37:49. | |
see somebody who they think is helping them to restore their pride. | :37:50. | :38:00. | |
Laurie is in a small town in Ohio. She said she was frustrated and | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
there was nothing in the town for her kids to do. She had five | :38:06. | :38:09. | |
children, two of them fell into drug use, like a lot of the places I went | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
to. She felt very much like the world had left her behind. She had | :38:15. | :38:19. | |
voted for Obama the first time, she bought into the idea of hope and | :38:20. | :38:25. | |
change, and she did not see that coming, so she was going to vote for | :38:26. | :38:29. | |
Trump. She was very explicit about that. The gentleman in the picture | :38:30. | :38:38. | |
is in a McDonald's in Virginia, in a town that lost the textile mills 25 | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
years ago. Since then, it has not recovered. I believe he is a | :38:42. | :38:51. | |
part-time minister as well. He had made a home-made Trump button. One | :38:52. | :38:56. | |
of the things about the Trump campaign that people made fun of was | :38:57. | :38:59. | |
the kind of ad hoc nature of it. It wasn't professional. For people like | :39:00. | :39:11. | |
Billy, it really represented to him that the campaign was real, it was | :39:12. | :39:14. | |
true. It represented him because it didn't have the trappings of a big, | :39:15. | :39:21. | |
professional campaign. The pictures of the bar owner, who had been a | :39:22. | :39:30. | |
firefighter all his life, is retired, he was very tall on whether | :39:31. | :39:35. | |
to vote for Trump or not. His frustration with Hillary Clinton and | :39:36. | :39:38. | |
frustration with what she represented, the sense of | :39:39. | :39:40. | |
entitlement, I think that ultimately pushed him on voting for Trump, even | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
though he was aware of the many problems Trump hard. It wasn't an | :39:47. | :39:50. | |
easy decision for him. He didn't just jump on a bandwagon and say he | :39:51. | :39:55. | |
loved this guy, he was very torn. Ultimately, I think he represents | :39:56. | :40:01. | |
what I saw in a lot of voters, have the Democrats have a better | :40:02. | :40:03. | |
candidate, I think we would not be where we are today. Sitting in a | :40:04. | :40:11. | |
truck, he has a Confederate flag on his truck. When you look at Paul, | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
you realise he also has only one leg. He talked about having been put | :40:16. | :40:20. | |
in the slow classes at school and made fun of all his life, as a | :40:21. | :40:36. | |
cripple and a retard. For him, what the flag represented was a community | :40:37. | :40:40. | |
that he could join, that accepted him. It doesn't help to yell at him | :40:41. | :40:46. | |
and say he is a racist. You have to look at a more holistic approach and | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
ask, why did he get here? Why did he get to this point, where he finds an | :40:51. | :40:54. | |
identity through the Confederate flag? Through voting for Trump? I | :40:55. | :40:59. | |
think when you look at Trump voters, you look at the anger that is | :41:00. | :41:07. | |
manifested in their vote, ask, how did it get there? What are the | :41:08. | :41:11. | |
conditions that created that? If you are going to stop the anger, stop | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
Trump in the long run, stop politics like this, you have to address the | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
inequality and the context that created that anger. | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
Clarification, we wrongly said earlier that Damian Green had said | :41:24. | :41:33. | |
on this programme that restoring cuts to Universal Credit would cost | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
?2 billion. It was not Damian Green that told us that. | :41:38. | :41:40. | |
But before we go, it was reported today that the number of plastic | :41:41. | :41:43. | |
bags left on our beaches has halved following the introduction | :41:44. | :41:45. | |
of the 5p charge for them in October last year. | :41:46. | :41:47. | |
But perhaps we underappreciate the aesthetic qualities | :41:48. | :41:51. | |
The film American Beauty knew a bag's worth. | :41:52. | :42:01. | |
Like a little kid begging me to play with it. | :42:02. | :42:18. | |
That's the day I realised that there was this... | :42:19. | :42:29. | |
And this incredibly benevolent force wanted me to know that there was no | :42:30. | :42:41. | |
Sometimes there's so much beauty in the world. | :42:42. | :43:30. | |
High-pressure building across the UK, | :43:31. | :43:33. |