22/11/2016 Newsnight


22/11/2016

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with James O'Brien.


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Transcript


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We used to know where we were with this guy.

:00:00.:00:00.

It was about rescuing the nation's finances...

:00:07.:00:09.

No unfunded spending, no irresponsible extra borrowing...

:00:10.:00:25.

But will a new regime bring new priorities?

:00:26.:00:26.

Ahead of Phillip Hammond's first Autumn Statement, we ask who he is -

:00:27.:00:30.

And we get a glimpse into his formative years.

:00:31.:00:34.

I think what we've seen with the new government is,

:00:35.:00:36.

understandably, a change of tone and a desire to draw a contrast

:00:37.:00:39.

Philip Hammond's contribution to that, early on in his

:00:40.:00:43.

chancellorship, he talked about a reset of fiscal policy.

:00:44.:00:45.

I think people probably overinterpreted too much meaning

:00:46.:00:47.

We got hold of half a bottle of sherry and proceeded to drink it.

:00:48.:00:53.

Very randomly, we ended up having a bit of a cheeky snog!

:00:54.:01:05.

Hail Trump! Hail our people! Hail victory!

:01:06.:01:08.

As footage emerges of neo Nazis celebrating Trump's election,

:01:09.:01:10.

we ask the former deputy secretary of state where US

:01:11.:01:13.

Finally, come's America in photographs. We talked to the former

:01:14.:01:22.

Wall Street trader who took them. When anonymous Cabinet colleagues

:01:23.:01:30.

reportedly described the Chancellor of the Exchequer as "arguing

:01:31.:01:33.

like an accountant, seeing the risk of everything" last month,

:01:34.:01:36.

it was, somewhat strangely, Tomorrow, when Philip Hammond

:01:37.:01:40.

delivers his first Autumn Statement, we should get the strongest

:01:41.:01:47.

indication yet of whether this alleged caution will prove to be

:01:48.:01:51.

a strength or a weakness in these The scariest Brexit-related

:01:52.:01:54.

predictions may not have immediately come true but the Treasury's

:01:55.:01:58.

goalposts have already moved quite a lot since George Osborne moved out

:01:59.:02:00.

of Number 11. Deficit reduction is no longer

:02:01.:02:07.

the top priority and apart from Jams - that's families who are just

:02:08.:02:10.

about managing, and our report later tonight into spiralling food

:02:11.:02:13.

prices won't provide them with much comfort -

:02:14.:02:15.

it's not clear yet In a moment we'll take a good look

:02:16.:02:18.

at the character of the man delivering the Autumn statement -

:02:19.:02:25.

and the political journey he's made. First, though, Newsnight's Chris

:02:26.:02:29.

Cook has been considering the scale One word above all defined the last

:02:30.:02:31.

six years of government. The largest budget deficit of any

:02:32.:02:43.

economy in Europe... George Osborne's intention

:02:44.:02:45.

in 2010 was to almost close By now, the squeezing on spending

:02:46.:03:01.

and tax was supposed The deficit last year

:03:02.:03:06.

was still 3.8% of GDP. So we're two to three years behind

:03:07.:03:15.

on a target set only six years ago. That also means that the stock

:03:16.:03:22.

of public borrowing hasn't stayed Our stock of debt was supposed

:03:23.:03:24.

to touch just 70% of GDP Well, the Brexit vote is expected

:03:25.:03:31.

to weigh on short-term growth. The average economic forecast back

:03:32.:03:43.

in June projected our economy The average dole claim projections

:03:44.:03:45.

for next year were about 710,000 people, now they're

:03:46.:03:55.

about 830,000 people. Well this line shows how

:03:56.:03:59.

the Government had reduced the deficit and what it expected

:04:00.:04:09.

to happen to the deficit in the coming years,

:04:10.:04:12.

measured in billions of pounds. The Treasury expected

:04:13.:04:14.

us to hit its target for moving from a deficit

:04:15.:04:16.

to a surplus in 2019-20. Now, this new line is

:04:17.:04:19.

the Resolution Foundation's estimate of what that slightly slower growth

:04:20.:04:22.

will do to those projections, And you can see that the deficit

:04:23.:04:25.

doesn't become a surplus Well, if the Chancellor

:04:26.:04:31.

wants an overall surplus, austerity will need to be deeper,

:04:32.:04:38.

or will have to continue for longer, The Government could slog on,

:04:39.:04:41.

or it could change its fiscal rules in ways that would give it more room

:04:42.:04:50.

to invest in infrastructure, But the key point is this -

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this Autumn Statement will be Our political editor

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Nick Watt is here. What have you learned? Think we can

:05:00.:05:17.

be pretty sure we will be talking about that group of people you have

:05:18.:05:22.

just mentioned, the Jams. These are people just about managing, and they

:05:23.:05:25.

have been identified by Downing Street as the key group of voters in

:05:26.:05:30.

need of help. There have been some tensions between Number 10 and 11

:05:31.:05:33.

Downing Street over this. Philip Hammond has been saying that the

:05:34.:05:37.

first responsibility is to ensure financial stability. But he has come

:05:38.:05:41.

round to Theresa May's mission. You will see some measures relatively

:05:42.:05:47.

modest. It will be interesting, one thing to look at tomorrow is

:05:48.:05:50.

something we recently highlighted on Newsnight. There is going to be a

:05:51.:05:55.

modest reduction in George Osborne's planned cuts to Universal Credit.

:05:56.:06:02.

What that will mean, as lope bus-load paid workers with more

:06:03.:06:08.

hours, their benefits will be reduced at a more modest and slower

:06:09.:06:12.

rate. The first fiscal event, in Treasury speak, since the Brexit

:06:13.:06:15.

vote, it really is a huge moment for Theresa May's government. We thought

:06:16.:06:20.

we would take an in-depth look at the character and journey that has

:06:21.:06:23.

brought Philip Hammond to the job he always dreamt of having, in

:06:24.:06:25.

circumstances he never envisaged would happen. I must warn you, this

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film does contain detail of his disco days.

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Until now, we've known him as the dull man of British politics.

:06:36.:06:40.

Spreadsheet Phil, even to his friends.

:06:41.:06:42.

Philip Hammond has risen with barely a trace but today he is

:06:43.:06:47.

emerging as one of the central figures as a new order judders into

:06:48.:06:50.

Since his days as a teenager in Essex there

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Philip, the deadly serious student, businessman

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and politician, and then there is Phil, the resourceful entrepreneur

:07:01.:07:02.

and charmer with a twinkle in the eye.

:07:03.:07:07.

Suburban Essex may not have felt that it was quite at the centre of

:07:08.:07:17.

Luckily, a schoolboy entrepreneur and his

:07:18.:07:20.

close friend were on hand to enliven the scene.

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There was one disco that used to take place in Shenfield

:07:27.:07:28.

I sort of said to him, we could do that.

:07:29.:07:34.

And so, to cut a long story short, Philip hired a hall, sold tickets,

:07:35.:07:44.

asked me if I'd DJ, and I was getting my

:07:45.:07:47.

whatever it was, 20 quid or something, for DJing.

:07:48.:07:51.

And Philip was just making a fortune!

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Even as a teenager, Philip Hammond was showing characteristics that

:07:59.:08:00.

That would be the sort of thing that I'd

:08:01.:08:07.

But if it hadn't got a Phoenix stamp on it, it

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Philip Hammond stamped all of the records owned by the business,

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even though they were in the care of his mate.

:08:16.:08:18.

He once said to me that he wanted to be a millionaire.

:08:19.:08:21.

I think he said by the time he was 30.

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And I think he did actually achieve that in the end.

:08:24.:08:26.

I remember going round to his house once.

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We got hold of half a bottle of sherry.

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And very randomly, we ended up having a bit

:08:31.:08:33.

Who'd have thought that Philip Hammond was such a good kisser?

:08:34.:08:49.

He used to wear, as memory serves, quite a long black leather coat.

:08:50.:08:52.

And he had very long jet black hair that

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kind of hung like crows wings down past his shoulders.

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He was very distinctive to look at, very tall,

:08:58.:09:00.

I can remember that in history classes for example he

:09:01.:09:05.

would come in with his Daily Telegraph.

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He always would finish his classwork ahead of everybody else.

:09:10.:09:11.

And he put his big boots up on the desk

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and he would start reading the Telegraph.

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And swapping political dialogue with our history teacher,

:09:18.:09:18.

And usually towards the end of the class

:09:19.:09:25.

they would swap papers and then they would sort of score jolly

:09:26.:09:28.

points off each other, making political points.

:09:29.:09:30.

But I do seem to remember him talking about the joys

:09:31.:09:35.

And the fact that one shouldn't feel guilty

:09:36.:09:39.

At Oxford, the political geek was in his element.

:09:40.:09:42.

Here he is watching the seminal debate at the Oxford union in 1975,

:09:43.:09:45.

days before Britain first voted on its relationship with Europe.

:09:46.:09:50.

It took another two decades after making millions in business

:09:51.:09:52.

before Philip Hammond finally answered his true calling.

:09:53.:09:56.

In 1993, a familiar figure was watching.

:09:57.:10:04.

There is a whole subclass of the population which no longer

:10:05.:10:07.

understands the distinction between right and wrong,

:10:08.:10:08.

Philip Hammond was not elected to parliament until his early 40s.

:10:09.:10:13.

It is better they wonder why you do not speak then

:10:14.:10:16.

And he watched as youngsters such as George Osborne overtook him.

:10:17.:10:23.

His breakthrough came when George Osborne appointed him

:10:24.:10:25.

as his deputy in the opposition Treasury team way

:10:26.:10:28.

Newsnight understands that the future Chancellor almost

:10:29.:10:32.

quit the front bench at that point because the new post

:10:33.:10:35.

But he stayed on after he was tipped off about the move, giving him time

:10:36.:10:41.

to reflect on how it might eventually taking closer

:10:42.:10:43.

Something that always struck me back then was I think it

:10:44.:10:51.

been very easy for someone in Philip Hammond's

:10:52.:10:54.

position being brought in as George Osborne's deputy,

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even though he was a decade older than him, to bear some

:11:00.:11:02.

I think that he understood that this was a balanced ticket, as you talk

:11:03.:11:08.

That George was younger, more political,

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there was a driving force behind the leadership and Philip

:11:11.:11:13.

In the lengthy years of opposition and

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early days of government, Philip Hammond was

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seen as something of a dry Eurosceptic Thatcherite.

:11:26.:11:27.

He was critical of the decision to legalise

:11:28.:11:29.

same-sex marriage and on Europe some colleagues thought the man now

:11:30.:11:32.

dubbed the Secretary of State for soft Brexit might even support

:11:33.:11:35.

The Philip Hammond I knew was a pretty Eurosceptic

:11:36.:11:48.

individual and certainly one who I thought

:11:49.:11:49.

would not make the change he

:11:50.:11:51.

He is a very pragmatic figure indeed.

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I assume the Foreign Office has worked its usual magic on

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people and he has seen the importance of changing your mind

:11:57.:11:59.

And now he is indeed, appears to be to the outside

:12:00.:12:02.

world, leading the drive for soft Brexit.

:12:03.:12:04.

Rather than the hard Brexit you might have expected some years

:12:05.:12:07.

But close friends say he was never an outer, just

:12:08.:12:14.

a classic sceptic who wanted to see the EU reform.

:12:15.:12:17.

There's been a widespread misunderstanding of

:12:18.:12:18.

the Conservative Eurosceptic position.

:12:19.:12:19.

The classic Eurosceptic position which Philip I think

:12:20.:12:21.

wholeheartedly held and 85% of the party,

:12:22.:12:26.

was that we are cautious of Europe, we think it needs reform,

:12:27.:12:29.

Finally at the age of 60 and after 19 years in

:12:30.:12:41.

Parliament, Philip Hammond secures dream job when his Oxford

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contemporary Theresa May appointed him as her Chancellor in the summer.

:12:44.:12:47.

Friends say the Chancellor regards himself as more of a finance

:12:48.:12:50.

minister than some grand political figure who meddles

:12:51.:12:53.

His primary aim is to ensure financial stability, for now

:12:54.:12:58.

that means resetting the dial on the economy by abandoning George

:12:59.:13:01.

Osborne's plan to achieve an overall budget surplus by 2020.

:13:02.:13:07.

One Osborne ally believes the Autumn Statement

:13:08.:13:08.

will actually mark continuity with the old regime.

:13:09.:13:13.

I think what we've seen with the new government

:13:14.:13:16.

understandably is a change of tone and a desire to draw a contrast with

:13:17.:13:19.

And Philip Hammond's contribution to that early

:13:20.:13:24.

on in his chancellorship, he talked about a reset of fiscal

:13:25.:13:27.

policy and I think people probably overinterpreted too much meaning

:13:28.:13:29.

The reality on substance I think is largely

:13:30.:13:36.

continuity, particularly Philip Hammond himself is a fairly

:13:37.:13:38.

He believes in balanced budgets and I think

:13:39.:13:47.

that we will see evidence of that in the Autumn Statement this week.

:13:48.:13:50.

Phil Philip Hammond knows that

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his success will depend in large part on maintaining a constructive

:13:53.:13:54.

As passing acquaintances at Oxford, they have an effective, though not

:13:55.:14:02.

He is dismissive of her approach on immigration and I have learned

:14:03.:14:06.

that the Treasury has been irritated by

:14:07.:14:08.

briefings that the Chancellor is wary of the Prime Minister's mission

:14:09.:14:10.

The people who are just about managing.

:14:11.:14:19.

Philip Hammond sees some merit in this idea, but he has reminded

:14:20.:14:22.

Number Ten that his first priority must be to ensure financial

:14:23.:14:24.

The two Oxford contemporaries know their government

:14:25.:14:30.

will ultimately be defined by how successfully they navigate the UK

:14:31.:14:33.

Newsnight understands that the Chancellor has

:14:34.:14:36.

He is unimpressed by what he regards as the excessively optimistic claims

:14:37.:14:46.

of Brexiteer Minister Boris Johnson and Liam Fox.

:14:47.:14:48.

And he fears that the UK could tumble out of the EU in a hard

:14:49.:14:52.

Friends say he is so concerned about business uncertainty

:14:53.:14:55.

that he believes that the UK should negotiate a transitional deal

:14:56.:14:58.

to cover future trading relations at the same time

:14:59.:15:00.

Theresa May appeared to float this idea yesterday.

:15:01.:15:09.

It is clear that one of the things that Philip is increasingly

:15:10.:15:14.

coming to the realisation, is that we may need to put in place

:15:15.:15:17.

transitional arrangements so that negotiations do not have to stop

:15:18.:15:20.

It may well be in our national interests

:15:21.:15:26.

to continue those negotiations for some time to get

:15:27.:15:28.

While the Chancellor is wary of Liam Fox and

:15:29.:15:35.

Boris Johnson, he has formed an alliance with the third

:15:36.:15:38.

Friends say he regards the Brexit secretary as a grown-up, immersing

:15:39.:15:50.

himself in the gritty detail of his job. Britain will have its first

:15:51.:15:57.

proper introduction to data the two Philip Hammond 's. Spreadsheet

:15:58.:16:02.

Philip might be the man for the moment as finances and a bumpy

:16:03.:16:06.

phase. But Phil, the confident charmer, will need all his political

:16:07.:16:09.

wiles to survive the choppy Brexit waters ahead.

:16:10.:16:14.

We're joined by the Conservative MP Heidi Allen and Labour's shadow

:16:15.:16:16.

Minister for Industrial Strategy, Chi Onwurah.

:16:17.:16:23.

You have got to cheer your man to the rafters tomorrow, that is how it

:16:24.:16:30.

works. But what are you hoping to see? We're getting ready some big

:16:31.:16:36.

clues about what we're likely to tomorrow. I have been campaigning

:16:37.:16:42.

hard to reverse the damage done to the universal credit system last

:16:43.:16:49.

year. I'm hearing ?1 billion putting in to reducing the harsher rates.

:16:50.:16:53.

Given the fiscal climate and the fact that we are to lift the

:16:54.:16:58.

national minimum wage, it is not bad. It had been suggested that 2

:16:59.:17:06.

billion was the figure that would make a meaningful difference. 2

:17:07.:17:10.

billion would have fully reversed all the changes put into work

:17:11.:17:15.

allowances. That goes some way, though not as much as I would have

:17:16.:17:20.

liked. But given the economic situation we are still in with the

:17:21.:17:24.

deficit and the debt, we have got to be a bit realistic. But if they're

:17:25.:17:28.

bumping up the national minimum wage. I've also heard that letting

:17:29.:17:34.

agencies will be banned for people ranting in the private market. Just

:17:35.:17:40.

to focus on the broader economic picture. Your maiden speech focused

:17:41.:17:49.

on universal credit. And people afterwards questioned why you were a

:17:50.:18:00.

Conservative! I think it is an old-fashioned view perhaps of where

:18:01.:18:03.

the Tory party, what people thought it was. It is changing. I would not

:18:04.:18:08.

have joint if I had thought it was going to continue in that way. But

:18:09.:18:13.

Theresa May is pushing that new broom. I just do not like the term

:18:14.:18:29.

JAMs. I know what the term means to me, it means the people that used to

:18:30.:18:33.

work with me at Royal Mail who just about every day, would make ends

:18:34.:18:38.

meet. It is money hand to mouth, choosing whether to put on the

:18:39.:18:43.

heating or do their shopping. A basic thing. These are the people I

:18:44.:18:48.

am fighting for as many of us are across the whole house. So the

:18:49.:18:52.

squeezed middle. Even less than that, people on very low incomes.

:18:53.:18:58.

Are we seeing the ghost of Ed Miliband appearing in these

:18:59.:19:00.

conservative economic policies? I think Theresa May is challenging --

:19:01.:19:09.

channelling much of Ed Miliband's policy and the squeezed middle has

:19:10.:19:13.

extended to incorporate many more people. Since the financial crisis

:19:14.:19:19.

we have bad actors incomes staying the same. -- average incomes. Many

:19:20.:19:26.

people are worse off today, we had wasted six years and is why Philip

:19:27.:19:33.

Hammond needs to set out his fiscal plans and how we're going to see

:19:34.:19:37.

growth, sustainable growth back in the economy. In the face of huge

:19:38.:19:44.

uncertainty that we have proposed Brexit and post-Trump. And if he

:19:45.:19:50.

sets out fiscal plans and they bear a passing resemblance to the

:19:51.:19:53.

manifesto that you fought the let's bash the last election on, where

:19:54.:19:59.

does that leave the labour economic policies? The Tories are failing by

:20:00.:20:09.

their own targets, we had 711 ?50 billion added to the national debt

:20:10.:20:14.

at the same time as people have got poorer. So everyone around the

:20:15.:20:18.

country who sweated blood and tears for its charity is now worse off.

:20:19.:20:21.

That is the key difference between us. But also, Theresa May talked

:20:22.:20:27.

about industrial strategy yesterday but we had no idea what she means by

:20:28.:20:33.

that. What she announced, and industrial challenge fund of some

:20:34.:20:38.

amount in four years, that is not an industrial strategy. And the failure

:20:39.:20:45.

of George Osborne's economic has convinced the Conservative Party we

:20:46.:20:49.

need an industrial strategy and need the state to intervene and ensure

:20:50.:20:52.

sustainable growth, but still to see any indication of specific measures

:20:53.:20:58.

to support our industry and investment. In the meantime you

:20:59.:21:05.

would welcome this taper on the universal credit. Absolutely, it was

:21:06.:21:10.

obscene that the poorest in our communities, 50% of children in

:21:11.:21:16.

households on universal credit, it seemed they were paying the price of

:21:17.:21:19.

austerity. This does not fully address that, but it is better than

:21:20.:21:24.

nothing and we are glad that they are reflecting that. Osbournomics

:21:25.:21:39.

has been absolutely busted. Six years in Downing Street and now his

:21:40.:21:44.

predecessor has given up on it. What you say to the people who had wage

:21:45.:21:49.

freezes because austerity was the answer to the deficit, who may have

:21:50.:21:53.

lost their jobs in the public sector because austerity was the answer to

:21:54.:21:56.

the deficit, people who have really been squeezed, as a direct result of

:21:57.:22:04.

the policy is your party enacted. It is not fair to say it is just

:22:05.:22:07.

because the policies that were enacted. George Osborne said it is

:22:08.:22:12.

the poorest that suffer when deficits are high. Now Philip

:22:13.:22:17.

Hammond is saying deficit reduction cannot be the top priority. So just

:22:18.:22:23.

let those two together, the poor will suffer more. Whilst I prefer a

:22:24.:22:28.

relaxation, that we will not aim for a surplus in this Parliament, I

:22:29.:22:33.

think it is right that we release the pressure just a little because

:22:34.:22:36.

it was becoming unbearable. And I believe under the previous

:22:37.:22:43.

administration it was all about the production of the deficit almost to

:22:44.:22:46.

the cost of everything else. So it is right that we release that. But

:22:47.:22:52.

not just George Osborne policies, this has been a difficult period

:22:53.:22:55.

across the world not just for our country. And it is turbulent. My

:22:56.:23:00.

worry with Brexit is that it will get more turbulence so I'm glad to

:23:01.:23:05.

get this extra cash to help them right back. Looking back at that

:23:06.:23:10.

comment about high deficit hitting the poorest hardest, are you

:23:11.:23:15.

suggesting that your colleagues who advocated Brexit have not -- have

:23:16.:23:20.

caused people to suffer more in the short-term at least? I'm hoping

:23:21.:23:25.

absolutely not. I know what I'm fearing, but Britain is a resilient

:23:26.:23:29.

country and I suspect we are all adjusting. My constituents wanted to

:23:30.:23:35.

remain but we've got to accept the decision and I know it is a tired

:23:36.:23:39.

phrase, but this is what British people do. The Prime Minister has

:23:40.:23:48.

announced ?2 million going into research and development and size

:23:49.:23:53.

funding. We have the innovation and that translates into jobs. There's

:23:54.:23:57.

not enough money to go around and it is finding that balance. Thank you

:23:58.:23:59.

very much. They called it Project Fear

:24:00.:24:01.

during the referendum campaign but there are signs that some

:24:02.:24:04.

of the warnings of post-Brexit economic trouble may be

:24:05.:24:06.

crystallising into Project Fact. Credit Suisse published its annual

:24:07.:24:10.

Global Wealth report today and estimated that Britain is one

:24:11.:24:14.

and a half trillion dollars poorer in dollar terms due to the fall

:24:15.:24:17.

in the pound since the vote to leave But even if you're not one of those

:24:18.:24:21.

people who don't trust experts, it's hard to see a number of that

:24:22.:24:27.

magnitude, my ten-year-old tells me there are twelve noughts

:24:28.:24:31.

in a trillion, in the context Much closer to home,

:24:32.:24:33.

Newsnight has been told that because of the value of sterling,

:24:34.:24:39.

food prices are likely to rise by more than 5% over

:24:40.:24:42.

the next six months - We may not be a nation

:24:43.:24:46.

of shopkeepers, but we are a nation Savouring the memories

:24:47.:24:56.

of products from the past, days when Smash meant potato

:24:57.:25:02.

and instant coffee Grocery shopping is at the very

:25:03.:25:05.

heart of our life. We all need the basics

:25:06.:25:11.

of life, we have to eat. But the cost of those essentials

:25:12.:25:14.

is critical to the economy. The more we spend on the weekly

:25:15.:25:18.

shop, the less we've got left It's easy to be nostalgic

:25:19.:25:21.

about Spangles and old brands. The fact is, back then in the 70s

:25:22.:25:28.

and 80s, your supermarket shop would take up a much bigger chunk

:25:29.:25:34.

of your money than it does now. In fact, over the past few years,

:25:35.:25:38.

food prices have actually But now, following Brexit,

:25:39.:25:40.

while the pound has weakened, that means ingredients and packaging

:25:41.:25:50.

that come from abroad have So, someone is going to have to soak

:25:51.:25:53.

up those increased costs. That's either the supplier,

:25:54.:25:56.

the retailer or us, the customers. This man knows the answers

:25:57.:25:59.

better than most. Justin King ran Sainsbury's

:26:00.:26:01.

for a decade, during which time sales grew,

:26:02.:26:04.

but prices stayed flat. He thinks the fall of

:26:05.:26:07.

the pound now is bound to Something of around 40% to 50%

:26:08.:26:10.

of what we buy in the shops is sourced abroad in currency

:26:11.:26:18.

other than the pound. With the current rate

:26:19.:26:21.

of exchange, we could expect that to be about 10% more

:26:22.:26:24.

expensive than a year's time. If that's about half

:26:25.:26:31.

of what we buy, that means something in the order

:26:32.:26:35.

of 5% inflation. After years of little or no

:26:36.:26:36.

changes in price, that rise But it's a prediction

:26:37.:26:39.

backed up by the group that oversees the whole British

:26:40.:26:42.

food and drink industry. But I think some prices will have

:26:43.:26:44.

risen between 5% and 8%. I think that's about

:26:45.:26:52.

where the consensus lays. We've heard about battles

:26:53.:26:54.

involving Marmite and Toblerone, but not all suppliers

:26:55.:26:56.

are multinational giants. Many are small companies,

:26:57.:27:00.

having to deal with a trading environment

:27:01.:27:04.

that has been mixed up. Raw material costs have gone up

:27:05.:27:06.

considerably since the 23rd of June. That is something we

:27:07.:27:10.

are having to manage. And they haven't gone up a little

:27:11.:27:13.

bit, they've gone We buy all our raw materials

:27:14.:27:15.

in dollars or euros. So, we don't want to pass that cost

:27:16.:27:20.

onto the consumer, but we can't

:27:21.:27:22.

absorb everything. We are having to look at ways

:27:23.:27:26.

to manage through cost So, the challenge is

:27:27.:27:29.

how to find creative ways to avoid passing on rising

:27:30.:27:34.

costs to price conscious customers. We could buy from the UK,

:27:35.:27:39.

rather than buying abroad. So we are looking at producing

:27:40.:27:42.

a hedgerow smoothie at the moment, and all

:27:43.:27:45.

the fruit comes just from the UK. Christmas is the busiest time

:27:46.:27:51.

of the year for retailers, glossy Justin King thinks many are simply

:27:52.:27:54.

holding off inevitable price rises. When I think back to the financial

:27:55.:28:04.

crisis of 2007-8, there was a lot of conversation at that time

:28:05.:28:08.

about why we weren't immediately seeing the effects on the consumer

:28:09.:28:13.

and consumer behaviour. It actually took the best part of 18

:28:14.:28:16.

months, maybe closer to two It was 2010 before we saw consumers

:28:17.:28:19.

start to change the way that they shopped, batten

:28:20.:28:31.

down the hatches a bit. I think that's the timelines

:28:32.:28:33.

we are talking about. Big, famous shops don't

:28:34.:28:35.

have a divine right to exist. Woolworths and BHS,

:28:36.:28:38.

both testament to that. So, if there is a grocery battle

:28:39.:28:39.

brewing, what determines The challenge is that the best run

:28:40.:28:42.

businesses will be able They won't pass it all

:28:43.:28:48.

onto customers, they will look Businesses that are already

:28:49.:28:53.

stretched, already perhaps with lower margins,

:28:54.:29:03.

perhaps with less strong relationships with customers,

:29:04.:29:04.

they are the ones that are going to suffer in that environment,

:29:05.:29:07.

because they will get squeezed in the jaws of not being able

:29:08.:29:09.

to put prices up and costs Can you see a familiar High Street

:29:10.:29:12.

name disappearing this time, because they just can't keep up

:29:13.:29:19.

with this battle? I just can't tell you

:29:20.:29:21.

which one it will be. It will become clear over time

:29:22.:29:25.

who the winners and losers are. We have become very used

:29:26.:29:31.

to very low food prices. But if these warnings are right,

:29:32.:29:34.

they may soon become Time now for your Donald Trump news,

:29:35.:29:37.

much of it culled from meeting at the New York Times earlier

:29:38.:29:46.

which was scheduled, then cancelled, Tonight, the President Elect

:29:47.:29:49.

believes that humankind has played Yesterday, of course,

:29:50.:29:55.

he thought it was all a hoax He currently doesn't

:29:56.:30:02.

want to prosecute Hillary Clinton. During the election campaign,

:30:03.:30:08.

you'll recall, he insisted that she would be jailed

:30:09.:30:10.

in the event of him winning and regularly encouraged supporters

:30:11.:30:12.

to chant 'lock her up'. And while some of those supporters

:30:13.:30:14.

chose to celebrate his victory in Washington this weekend by making

:30:15.:30:19.

Nazi salutes and espousing undiluted white supremacism,

:30:20.:30:22.

today he strongly condemned the so-called alt-right

:30:23.:30:26.

extremists who nonetheless still consider his Chief of Staff,

:30:27.:30:30.

Stephen Bannon, to be a sort of patron saint

:30:31.:30:34.

of the whole movement. Here, in case you haven't seen it,

:30:35.:30:37.

is the footage of a man called Richard Spencer,

:30:38.:30:41.

who claims to have coined the very term alt-right,

:30:42.:30:46.

addressing fellow fascists The mainstream media -

:30:47.:30:47.

or perhaps we should refer to them Ambassador Wendy Sherman

:30:48.:31:06.

is Senior Counselor, Albright Stonebridge Group

:31:07.:31:18.

and was President Obama's Deputy She previously worked

:31:19.:31:21.

as his Under Secretary of State I don't want to seem ungrateful for

:31:22.:31:38.

you giving your time tonight, but are we wasting our time trying to

:31:39.:31:42.

analyse Donald Trump at this point? It seems a little like trying to

:31:43.:31:49.

nail jelly to the wall, or jello, as you would say? What has happened

:31:50.:31:55.

here, and President Obama spoke on this when he met President-Elect

:31:56.:31:58.

Trump, he is now coming to understand what it is to be

:31:59.:32:01.

President of the United States. These issues are complex and there

:32:02.:32:07.

is a reason why President Obama has proceeded in the way that he has.

:32:08.:32:11.

Yes, I am glad that he has condemned the alt-right meeting that took

:32:12.:32:15.

place. I would also like to apologise for all of the demeaning

:32:16.:32:19.

things he said during the election that have many people in the streets

:32:20.:32:23.

of my country very scared on a daily basis about what is going to happen

:32:24.:32:27.

and whether their rights are going to be protected. I'm glad he said

:32:28.:32:30.

that maybe humankind has something to do with climate, but I want to

:32:31.:32:34.

make sure he is going to hold onto the climate accord which the whole

:32:35.:32:39.

world has signed up to. I don't know that we are throwing spaghetti

:32:40.:32:42.

against the wall, but I agree that we don't know exactly where we are

:32:43.:32:48.

going to land and we will see whether as an intellect tramp really

:32:49.:32:52.

becomes, in fullness, what is required of a President of the

:32:53.:32:55.

United States. You mentioned the people living in fear of some of the

:32:56.:32:59.

comments he made, or fear of the wrong locations of some of the

:33:00.:33:02.

comments. Plenty of people cheered them. If he doesn't deliver on the

:33:03.:33:06.

stuff that you worry about, would you not have a whole new raft of

:33:07.:33:10.

worries that his supporters might have a grievance? Well, his

:33:11.:33:15.

supporters may have a grievance, but they won the election and he is the

:33:16.:33:21.

President-Elect, even Secretary Clinton got the majority of the

:33:22.:33:24.

popular vote, as your viewers I am sure know by now. We have an

:33:25.:33:28.

electoral college system, so small states get to have a say and states

:33:29.:33:33.

cannot decide, through popular vote, who wins. We have a pretty divided

:33:34.:33:38.

country in terms of the feelings here and what the President of the

:33:39.:33:42.

United States is supposed to do is bring the country together.

:33:43.:33:46.

President-Elect Trump has yet to do that, and to give reassurance to the

:33:47.:33:52.

people that did not vote for him. I was glad on the night of the

:33:53.:33:55.

election that he said he wanted to be President for all of America, but

:33:56.:33:59.

he has yet to take the steps and say that things come in my view, that

:34:00.:34:03.

will give the assurance they need. And we have to see what his policies

:34:04.:34:06.

bring on issues like immigration, what he will do about taking on all

:34:07.:34:14.

of the wealth at the top of our population, and not well distributed

:34:15.:34:17.

throughout the population. There is a lot to be seen and a lot to come

:34:18.:34:22.

ahead. We are all watching and waiting, and making sure that we

:34:23.:34:25.

stayed, forthrightly, what is necessary to really be President of

:34:26.:34:30.

the United States. Let's talk about the things we do know. I have been

:34:31.:34:36.

swotting up on your speeches, in the context of international diplomacy,

:34:37.:34:39.

when you were speaking in Geneva, just before the Iran negotiations

:34:40.:34:45.

began in 2013, and then the Carnegie endowment for International peace in

:34:46.:34:48.

February of last year. It's really boring, isn't it? A lot of this to

:34:49.:34:52.

go see Asian, it is really detailed, and it demands a level of

:34:53.:35:02.

application. -- it is really detailed and demands a level of

:35:03.:35:05.

application that maybe he has not demonstrated. Can it be more like

:35:06.:35:09.

Ronald Reagan, with people like you in the background doing the heavy

:35:10.:35:13.

lifting? You can delegate, but you certainly have to have a grasp of

:35:14.:35:25.

it. I picked up a copy of The Art Of The Deal, Donald Trump's book,

:35:26.:35:29.

because I wanted to understand how he thought about things. Bradley,

:35:30.:35:32.

doing a deal for a building is different from negotiating change

:35:33.:35:34.

when it comes to international security. If a building doesn't get

:35:35.:35:39.

built, a building doesn't get built. If the Iran negotiation had not been

:35:40.:35:44.

successful, we might find ourselves at war. The stakes are quite

:35:45.:35:50.

different. There are many people that have an interest in the

:35:51.:35:53.

outcome. That agreement in particular was not just a bilateral

:35:54.:35:58.

arrangement with the United States. It was an agreement reached with the

:35:59.:36:02.

entire international community. Very briefly, the co-author said that

:36:03.:36:10.

Trump will not just have his eye on closing down elements of the press

:36:11.:36:14.

and the media, he would be keen to enact some sort of silencing of

:36:15.:36:18.

freedom of speech. Do events today make that look a little bit

:36:19.:36:23.

excessive? Well, to go back to your opening, James, for today, it makes

:36:24.:36:27.

it look better. He actually had the meeting with the New York Times and

:36:28.:36:30.

said the first Amendment was something nobody should worry about,

:36:31.:36:35.

which is freedom of speech. He did and on the record interview with the

:36:36.:36:38.

New York Times. But that is today. We need to see sustained openness.

:36:39.:36:42.

Starting tomorrow. Thanks for your time this evening.

:36:43.:36:44.

The forgotten corners and the forgotten people of America

:36:45.:36:46.

have moved sharply into focus since Donald Trump's victory

:36:47.:36:48.

and it's fair to say that most city dwellers -

:36:49.:36:51.

not to mention most media professionals -

:36:52.:36:52.

have been surprised by what they've seen.

:36:53.:36:55.

In 2012, he turned his back on a 20-year career

:36:56.:37:00.

as a Wall Street trader and, like a latter day William Hogarth,

:37:01.:37:02.

set off with his camera to chronicle the oft-overlooked underbelly

:37:03.:37:05.

In an exclusive film for Newsnight, here he shares some

:37:06.:37:11.

I'm a photographer and writer and I spent the last two years talking to

:37:12.:37:31.

voters, a lot of them Trump voters. They are people that feel very much

:37:32.:37:35.

like the country has left them behind, economically and socially.

:37:36.:37:39.

They feel very much like there is a sense of humiliation, a sense of

:37:40.:37:42.

feeling very much like the world has humiliated them. With Trump, they

:37:43.:37:49.

see somebody who they think is helping them to restore their pride.

:37:50.:38:00.

Laurie is in a small town in Ohio. She said she was frustrated and

:38:01.:38:05.

there was nothing in the town for her kids to do. She had five

:38:06.:38:09.

children, two of them fell into drug use, like a lot of the places I went

:38:10.:38:14.

to. She felt very much like the world had left her behind. She had

:38:15.:38:19.

voted for Obama the first time, she bought into the idea of hope and

:38:20.:38:25.

change, and she did not see that coming, so she was going to vote for

:38:26.:38:29.

Trump. She was very explicit about that. The gentleman in the picture

:38:30.:38:38.

is in a McDonald's in Virginia, in a town that lost the textile mills 25

:38:39.:38:41.

years ago. Since then, it has not recovered. I believe he is a

:38:42.:38:51.

part-time minister as well. He had made a home-made Trump button. One

:38:52.:38:56.

of the things about the Trump campaign that people made fun of was

:38:57.:38:59.

the kind of ad hoc nature of it. It wasn't professional. For people like

:39:00.:39:11.

Billy, it really represented to him that the campaign was real, it was

:39:12.:39:14.

true. It represented him because it didn't have the trappings of a big,

:39:15.:39:21.

professional campaign. The pictures of the bar owner, who had been a

:39:22.:39:30.

firefighter all his life, is retired, he was very tall on whether

:39:31.:39:35.

to vote for Trump or not. His frustration with Hillary Clinton and

:39:36.:39:38.

frustration with what she represented, the sense of

:39:39.:39:40.

entitlement, I think that ultimately pushed him on voting for Trump, even

:39:41.:39:46.

though he was aware of the many problems Trump hard. It wasn't an

:39:47.:39:50.

easy decision for him. He didn't just jump on a bandwagon and say he

:39:51.:39:55.

loved this guy, he was very torn. Ultimately, I think he represents

:39:56.:40:01.

what I saw in a lot of voters, have the Democrats have a better

:40:02.:40:03.

candidate, I think we would not be where we are today. Sitting in a

:40:04.:40:11.

truck, he has a Confederate flag on his truck. When you look at Paul,

:40:12.:40:15.

you realise he also has only one leg. He talked about having been put

:40:16.:40:20.

in the slow classes at school and made fun of all his life, as a

:40:21.:40:36.

cripple and a retard. For him, what the flag represented was a community

:40:37.:40:40.

that he could join, that accepted him. It doesn't help to yell at him

:40:41.:40:46.

and say he is a racist. You have to look at a more holistic approach and

:40:47.:40:50.

ask, why did he get here? Why did he get to this point, where he finds an

:40:51.:40:54.

identity through the Confederate flag? Through voting for Trump? I

:40:55.:40:59.

think when you look at Trump voters, you look at the anger that is

:41:00.:41:07.

manifested in their vote, ask, how did it get there? What are the

:41:08.:41:11.

conditions that created that? If you are going to stop the anger, stop

:41:12.:41:15.

Trump in the long run, stop politics like this, you have to address the

:41:16.:41:18.

inequality and the context that created that anger.

:41:19.:41:23.

Clarification, we wrongly said earlier that Damian Green had said

:41:24.:41:33.

on this programme that restoring cuts to Universal Credit would cost

:41:34.:41:37.

?2 billion. It was not Damian Green that told us that.

:41:38.:41:40.

But before we go, it was reported today that the number of plastic

:41:41.:41:43.

bags left on our beaches has halved following the introduction

:41:44.:41:45.

of the 5p charge for them in October last year.

:41:46.:41:47.

But perhaps we underappreciate the aesthetic qualities

:41:48.:41:51.

The film American Beauty knew a bag's worth.

:41:52.:42:01.

Like a little kid begging me to play with it.

:42:02.:42:18.

That's the day I realised that there was this...

:42:19.:42:29.

And this incredibly benevolent force wanted me to know that there was no

:42:30.:42:41.

Sometimes there's so much beauty in the world.

:42:42.:43:30.

High-pressure building across the UK,

:43:31.:43:33.

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