15/12/2016 Newsnight


15/12/2016

In-depth investigation with Evan Davis. How should journalists treat stolen information in the era of state hacking? Plus the latest on the Aleppo evacuation.


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Transcript


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He says history is being written today by every citizen of Syria.

:00:00.:00:08.

But what kind of gruesome history is it?

:00:09.:00:11.

At last, there is peace in eastern Aleppo, or what's left of it.

:00:12.:00:14.

But the Syrian war is far from over, unless politics can intervene.

:00:15.:00:19.

In the meantime, rebels are being evacuated to another enclave,

:00:20.:00:22.

which could be the scene of the next battle.

:00:23.:00:26.

And as people leave Aleppo, we'll talk to this doctor

:00:27.:00:29.

who's on his way back the region to help the injured.

:00:30.:00:32.

Also tonight: The new geopolitical weapon - hacking.

:00:33.:00:42.

I believe the leak was a large part of why Hillary had real problems

:00:43.:00:51.

with him enyams and why she did not hit her targets in the states trump

:00:52.:00:55.

won. Could it have been the difference? Absolutely.

:00:56.:00:58.

Well, we have to be very careful of this 1930s comparison.

:00:59.:01:00.

The fact is, it's the only history that's taught in our schools.

:01:01.:01:07.

One of the reasons everyone's mentioning it

:01:08.:01:09.

is because it's the only history anyone knows anymore.

:01:10.:01:12.

Where does history tell us we may be heading?

:01:13.:01:24.

When the world looks back on the last 17 days of horror that

:01:25.:01:29.

eastern Aleppo has just endured, it will undoubtedly wonder how

:01:30.:01:31.

the brutality of medieval warfare could have imposed itself

:01:32.:01:34.

Why did the two mechanisms of world authority -

:01:35.:01:39.

the United Nations and the United States - both fail?

:01:40.:01:42.

And how could the battle have gone on so long once one side

:01:43.:01:45.

These are interesting questions, but today, at least,

:01:46.:01:50.

there are more hopeful images from Aleppo than we've

:01:51.:01:53.

Let's have a look at four scenes that tell the story of today.

:01:54.:01:59.

First, the Syrian flag being raised over eastern Aleppo.

:02:00.:02:02.

Let's not forget, this is the day that Assad hailed

:02:03.:02:05.

what he called Aleppo's liberation as an historic event.

:02:06.:02:08.

Second, the buses on their way to evacuate civilians,

:02:09.:02:11.

rebels and their families from the remaining rebel-held

:02:12.:02:14.

Meanwhile, overhead, Putin is watching.

:02:15.:02:20.

This is footage of the buses today from the Russian Defence Ministry.

:02:21.:02:24.

And finally, civilians waiting to move back into East Aleppo.

:02:25.:02:28.

The children are chanting in praise of Assad -

:02:29.:02:31.

a useful reminder that not all Syrians are anti-Government.

:02:32.:02:36.

It was not a day for joy, but it was one of relief.

:02:37.:02:40.

Now the professional journalists have had difficulty in getting

:02:41.:02:43.

access to Eastern Aleppo, but the shelling there has been

:02:44.:02:46.

vividly reported thanks to smartphones and social media.

:02:47.:02:49.

And if that's been true of the attack on Aleppo,

:02:50.:03:36.

The skies are clear, the birds chirping and people are leaving

:03:37.:03:43.

besieged Aleppo and I'm hoping that I will be doing the same thing.

:03:44.:04:33.

Dr Zaher Sahloul is from the Syrian American Medical Society

:04:34.:04:35.

and is part of a medical convoy heading to the country this weekend

:04:36.:04:38.

to help build a hospital to treat those injured

:04:39.:04:40.

How much contact have you had today with the people there in terms of

:04:41.:04:52.

how the evacuation has been going? I was fixated on my cellphone looking

:04:53.:04:57.

at the reports and texts coming from my colleagues inside Aleppo. These

:04:58.:05:00.

are the doctors and nurses I spent my last medical commission with

:05:01.:05:06.

right before the siege. And they were updating me about the

:05:07.:05:10.

evacuation process and I had a sigh of relief that it happened without

:05:11.:05:14.

hiccups this time. Relatively smooth. When you get back there,

:05:15.:05:18.

there will be a generation of children deeply scarred by what

:05:19.:05:23.

they've been through. Every child I've seen in Aleppo, even before

:05:24.:05:29.

these last few months, was scarred. They have been under siege, they

:05:30.:05:33.

have shortage of food, medicine, there is no schooling, there is

:05:34.:05:38.

bombing and every one of them will have trauma deep in planted in their

:05:39.:05:42.

psyche for the rest of their lives. And physically disabled as well?

:05:43.:05:47.

Yes, and this is a problem Syria has to live with in the long term. We

:05:48.:05:53.

saw the child motionless in the ambulance. How quickly do you think

:05:54.:05:58.

those kids will recover? It will take a generation or more for them

:05:59.:06:02.

to recover. Syria does not have the capacity to deal with the cycle --

:06:03.:06:07.

psychological impact of the crisis. We also have a large number of

:06:08.:06:11.

people injured because the amputations and spinal cord injuries

:06:12.:06:15.

in Syria. It will take a look of effort and let's not forget that we

:06:16.:06:21.

have 50% of the refugees outside Syria who are children. -- a lot of

:06:22.:06:30.

effort. Do you ever reflect on how the human race could do better in

:06:31.:06:34.

solving these disputes? Iowa to reflect on the fact that the

:06:35.:06:38.

president of Syria was trained to be a doctor and he is overseeing the

:06:39.:06:45.

destruction of many cities in his country, displacement of Hop

:06:46.:06:49.

population, the injury of one and a half million people. -- his

:06:50.:06:59.

population. The day that Nero burned Rome, the emperor, that was a

:07:00.:07:02.

historic day. It is a historic day when you have a president trained to

:07:03.:07:08.

be a physician overseeing the killing of 350 hospitals and the

:07:09.:07:11.

killing of doctors and nurses in Syria. I was at school with him and

:07:12.:07:16.

nobody expected him to be that brutal always was. Have you met with

:07:17.:07:24.

him since? Yes. I asked him about introducing democracy in Syria and

:07:25.:07:27.

he said they are not ready for democracy, Syrians. You never, ever

:07:28.:07:32.

see a clue as to what horror can be inflicted by him from the kid you

:07:33.:07:38.

knew at school? No. Many of us believe he is a war criminal and any

:07:39.:07:46.

person who believes in the stability of Syria, they don't perceive him as

:07:47.:07:49.

being part of the picture of the future of Syria. Do you think it

:07:50.:07:54.

took too long for the point of surrender to be reached in eastern

:07:55.:08:00.

Aleppo? Definitely. It was over weeks ago. They couldn't win from

:08:01.:08:04.

that position. And of course there was a lot of suffering in the last

:08:05.:08:08.

days as they held out. Definitely. Everybody knew this was happening.

:08:09.:08:17.

What is the surprise is that the international community and Nato and

:08:18.:08:20.

the United Nations did not intervene earlier. The evacuation of 250,000

:08:21.:08:26.

people from their homes and neighbourhoods happening now, this

:08:27.:08:30.

is what is called ethnic cleansing, forced evacuation, and this is a

:08:31.:08:36.

tragedy we have to live with for the foreseeable future. It is obviously

:08:37.:08:40.

a tragedy. The scary prospect is that you will get the same thing

:08:41.:08:43.

again in the place people have moved to. How can that... I mean, what is

:08:44.:08:53.

happening here? How is it saying to move people from one enclave to

:08:54.:08:57.

another where they can be pummelled again? Everything happening in Syria

:08:58.:09:05.

is that history is rewritten and the use of chemical weapons, more than

:09:06.:09:09.

168 times, the use of siege as a tactic of war, on both sides. What

:09:10.:09:15.

happened in Aleppo happened in the city of Homs, as well as other

:09:16.:09:23.

cities before. Killing children, bombing hospitals. These are the new

:09:24.:09:27.

norms in Syria. It is dangerous not only for Syrians but for refugees.

:09:28.:09:34.

The rise of the extreme West, sorry, right. And the terrorism we are

:09:35.:09:39.

witnessing is all what is happening in Syria. You are going back to

:09:40.:09:46.

what? Under whose auspices do you go back and build a hospital? Under the

:09:47.:09:51.

Syrian government? You will be in their region now. The NGOs have been

:09:52.:09:59.

part of the solution and they are the hope Syrians are looking for.

:10:00.:10:07.

There is a British NGO and representatives, and they are going

:10:08.:10:12.

symbolically to build a hospital that was destroyed. This is our

:10:13.:10:15.

statement to tell the doctors of Syria we are with them, we are

:10:16.:10:21.

standing up with them, and this is also to say, shame on you, you did

:10:22.:10:24.

not stop the genocide in Syria but we will do our part and we will be

:10:25.:10:29.

the ones we're building the country after it has been destroyed. Thank

:10:30.:10:30.

you. The news yesterday that Yahoo had,

:10:31.:10:33.

without noticing, been robbed of data on a billion users capped

:10:34.:10:36.

a year in which hacking has rarely The idea that the Russians might

:10:37.:10:39.

try to steal emails in order to discredit a candidate

:10:40.:10:43.

in an American election would have Now it's what intelligence services

:10:44.:10:46.

think actually happened. It's a development with all sorts

:10:47.:10:53.

of implications, not least the questions it raises

:10:54.:10:56.

for journalists about how Newsnight's editor Ian Katz,

:10:57.:10:58.

who was involved in covering some of the biggest leaks of recent

:10:59.:11:01.

years, dusted off his Our digital world is frighteningly

:11:02.:11:22.

leaky. The medical records of top athletes, the internal debates of a

:11:23.:11:27.

presidential campaign, scarcely a month goes by without some new cache

:11:28.:11:33.

of sensitive data being thrown into the harsh glare of public scrutiny.

:11:34.:11:38.

And, increasingly, it is states who are putting them there. It's a new

:11:39.:11:44.

kind of information war. One that challenges the very idea of what

:11:45.:11:49.

pre-assy means in a digital world. And one that poses new and difficult

:11:50.:11:57.

questions for journalists. The President earlier this week

:11:58.:11:59.

instructed the intelligence community to conduct a full review

:12:00.:12:05.

of the pattern of malicious cyber activity related to our presidential

:12:06.:12:10.

election cycle. An election full of twists has saved one of its most

:12:11.:12:14.

breathtaking till last. A President-Elect is locked in a

:12:15.:12:19.

stand-off with the CIA over whether Russia mounted a hacking campaign to

:12:20.:12:24.

help put him in the White House. I think it's ridiculous. WikiLeaks

:12:25.:12:29.

today released a brand new batch of hacked e-mail. Mira served as a

:12:30.:12:36.

close aide to Hillary Clinton and was a confidante of John Pedester

:12:37.:12:42.

who's hacked emails were leaked daily during the last weeks of

:12:43.:12:48.

campaign. As the emails were leaked there were a string of awkward

:12:49.:12:55.

headlines. Do we actually know who told Hillary she could use a private

:12:56.:13:01.

e-mail and has that person been drawn and quartered? I was watching

:13:02.:13:06.

TV. There was one of my emails on TV. The next day, a Twitter storm

:13:07.:13:10.

developed because of something I'd said. It was just like, it became a

:13:11.:13:18.

daily humiliation. Just ever-present terrible experience. It became one

:13:19.:13:23.

where every morning I'd have to brace myself for some new e-mail

:13:24.:13:31.

coming out in which I'd have to apologise to somebody or mostly deal

:13:32.:13:36.

with people ruffling through your most private thoughts and sticking

:13:37.:13:41.

them on the internet. It was the worst experience I've ever had

:13:42.:13:45.

professionally. Whatever the precise intention of those behind the hack,

:13:46.:13:50.

it. Anden has little doubt about its impacted. I believe the leak was a

:13:51.:13:59.

large part of why Hillary had real problems with Millenials, which is

:14:00.:14:04.

why she did not hit her targets in the three states Trump won. Could it

:14:05.:14:07.

have been the difference? Absolutely. People have to live with

:14:08.:14:13.

that. There's nothing new about states hacking system of other

:14:14.:14:17.

states for commercial information and security secrets. And nothing

:14:18.:14:24.

new about getting hold of embarrassing information to

:14:25.:14:26.

discredit them. The Russians even have a word for it. What the latest

:14:27.:14:32.

attacks have done is bring together these two tactics to create a new

:14:33.:14:36.

one, the data leak has been weaponised. So, the from e-mail at

:14:37.:14:41.

first glance looks like Google security. If you go into the text

:14:42.:14:48.

behind the e-mail, you can see it's send from a Yandex e-mail account.

:14:49.:14:52.

That's a Russian free mail web service. Tony is a former Pentagon

:14:53.:14:57.

analysts who spends her time identifying new online threats. The

:14:58.:15:04.

so-called spear fish Mel which caught out John Pedester was a scam

:15:05.:15:08.

all e-mail users are familiar with. But it bore the digital fingerprints

:15:09.:15:13.

of a hacking group linked to Russian intelligence. There's a brazenness

:15:14.:15:17.

in the attacks we've seen this year that is has been surprising. The

:15:18.:15:21.

Russians don't seem to care that this activity is being attributed to

:15:22.:15:26.

them. There's also a meanness to it. They're willing to dump a tremendous

:15:27.:15:31.

amount of personal and private information as part of these

:15:32.:15:36.

attacks. These attacks have been attributed by the US Government as

:15:37.:15:39.

something shared by the number of companies in the private sector.

:15:40.:15:44.

Where does this leave reporters and editors who avenue always had to

:15:45.:15:49.

think carefully about a source's motives. Five years ago I

:15:50.:15:54.

collaborated with WikiLeaks to publish stories of thousands of

:15:55.:15:59.

leaked US cables. Some criticised but few doubted the motivation of

:16:00.:16:04.

the person who leaked them. Bradley, now Chelsea manning, was so

:16:05.:16:09.

convinced she had to expose what she considered to be an abuse of power,

:16:10.:16:14.

she was prepared to go to jail for it. But how should news

:16:15.:16:20.

organisations behave when they're effectively handed thrives of

:16:21.:16:26.

confidential information by foreign states with transpartent --

:16:27.:16:31.

transparent motives. Some say we're becoming useful idiots when we

:16:32.:16:35.

publish damaging stories a hostile Government wants us to. What's to

:16:36.:16:41.

become of a cycling super hero? We questioned with that on Newsnight

:16:42.:16:44.

earlier this year. We ran a series of stories based on the medical

:16:45.:16:49.

files of top athletes, files we were pretty sure had been hack hacked by

:16:50.:16:54.

the Russians. It felt uneasy giving Moscow just what it wanted. But the

:16:55.:17:00.

public interests in examining if one of Britain's sporting here rows had

:17:01.:17:05.

broken the spirit of the rules if not the rules themselves was clear.

:17:06.:17:12.

Not all the revelations in these leaks are quite as significant.

:17:13.:17:16.

Thanks to Russian hackers, and a little help from chief stirrer

:17:17.:17:22.

Julian Assange, I can now make a pretty pass able risotto. As John

:17:23.:17:27.

Pedester said, it is all about adding the stock slowly. I also know

:17:28.:17:36.

this time, thanks to the north Korean yaps, that Tom Hanks uses the

:17:37.:17:44.

ail ya Johnny Madrid and Scot Ruden thinks Angelina Joel ary is a minute

:17:45.:17:50.

imalley talented spoilt brat. The question is, have we become too

:17:51.:17:55.

willing to serve up every tasty morsel provided by the hackers?

:17:56.:18:00.

Perhaps, unsurprisingly, some of those who've seen their own private

:18:01.:18:06.

communications sprayed across the internet, think it is. You have a

:18:07.:18:09.

quote from someone about somebody else. Under the veneer of

:18:10.:18:16.

journalism, reporters were totally trafficking in gossip. That's what

:18:17.:18:20.

they were doing. The New York Times has run a string of stories this

:18:21.:18:25.

year based on the Pedester emails and, before that, material hacked

:18:26.:18:28.

from the democratic national committee. I asked the paper's

:18:29.:18:35.

editor if the thought he might be doing Vladimir Putin's bidding keeps

:18:36.:18:39.

him up at night? Sure it does. But it would keep me up at nice worse,

:18:40.:18:46.

or at least longer, if I had information from a hack that I knew

:18:47.:18:51.

was accurate that voters and citizens needed to know and I'm not

:18:52.:18:55.

publishing because maybe it came from the Russians. I can't imagine a

:18:56.:19:01.

slipperier slope than that. At what point is my safe at home filled with

:19:02.:19:04.

information I can't report because I'm nervous about the source. If

:19:05.:19:13.

someone had brought you a carton of papers, actual hard paper papers and

:19:14.:19:20.

you knew for certain those were burgled from John Pedester's home,

:19:21.:19:24.

would you treat those the same as a caceh of emails? That's a good and

:19:25.:19:29.

hard question I've not had to confront yet. I would go through it.

:19:30.:19:35.

If it was really significant and important, I would publish it. It

:19:36.:19:39.

would make me nervous. I would admit to people how we got it. But I think

:19:40.:19:47.

the information Trumps all. There's a powerful argument it doesn't

:19:48.:19:50.

really matter how organisations like the New York Times and the BBC hack

:19:51.:19:55.

material because in the Wild West of the internet, there'll always be

:19:56.:19:59.

someone willing to publish. Some argue we should just accept there's

:20:00.:20:04.

no such thing a prove assy in our digital lives. One high profile

:20:05.:20:09.

victim of a major hack told me he communicates about all sensitive

:20:10.:20:13.

matters by fax or phone. Kieran Martin is the man charged with

:20:14.:20:17.

defending Britain against cyber attack. He's about to step out of

:20:18.:20:25.

the shadows of GCHQ to lead the new cybersecurity centre. He told me

:20:26.:20:29.

measures were taken to protect the British election from hackers but

:20:30.:20:34.

there is a danger the recent US experience will inspire Ore tackers.

:20:35.:20:38.

There are all sorts of threats from state cyber attackers. Threats to

:20:39.:20:42.

critical national systems. Threats to our economic well-being through

:20:43.:20:47.

commercial espionage. There may be a perception now this is a successful

:20:48.:20:54.

model for intervention in societies such as ours and our allies and

:20:55.:20:58.

that's something we need to be prepared to deal with. He insists

:20:59.:21:04.

we're a long way from giving up on the idea of prove assy. Stealing

:21:05.:21:07.

information for political, financial purposes is as old as human activity

:21:08.:21:12.

itself. The digital world gives people an opportunity to do that on

:21:13.:21:15.

a different scale. There's plenty to do to defend ourselves. We need a

:21:16.:21:21.

demystify ourselves. If we wrap the problem in a shroud of mystique.

:21:22.:21:26.

People eh people sitting at computers in far away places that

:21:27.:21:31.

cannot be contested that is an incressbly damaging attitude to

:21:32.:21:36.

take. Perhaps one detail of the US hacking story embodied the very

:21:37.:21:43.

human vulnerability Martin and his counterparts can do little about.

:21:44.:21:52.

When John Pedester received his mail, an aid and staffer replied

:21:53.:21:56.

saying it was legitimate. It was a type owe. He meant to type

:21:57.:22:03.

illegitimate. The course of mystery perhaps changed by two missing

:22:04.:22:04.

letters. There an extended interview on

:22:05.:22:18.

hacking on the Newsnight YouTube channel.

:22:19.:22:21.

It'll be our last programme tomorrow,

:22:22.:22:24.

There's always a tendency to think the moment we're living in

:22:25.:22:28.

but this year has surely been dizzyingly interesting.

:22:29.:22:33.

What's the right frame to view it through?

:22:34.:22:37.

But first, how will historians look back on it?

:22:38.:22:40.

We like to be first with the news, so I've been speaking to three,

:22:41.:22:43.

to get an early draft on the year that was, in its own way,

:22:44.:22:47.

President-Elect of the United States of America, Donald Trump.

:22:48.:22:59.

The year could be remembered for lots of things.

:23:00.:23:02.

The British people have made a very clear decision

:23:03.:23:04.

Well, Lenin said there are decades when nothing happens

:23:05.:23:09.

It was the year that globalisation went into reverse.

:23:10.:23:17.

And the nation state reasserted itself

:23:18.:23:18.

After decades of walls coming down...

:23:19.:23:26.

..it was the year of barriers going up.

:23:27.:23:29.

A year that nationalism and naked tribalism

:23:30.:23:39.

I also want to fight for the preservation of our own identity.

:23:40.:23:47.

A year that traditional politics and its parties began to fall apart.

:23:48.:24:06.

Owen, you know perfectly well what the answer is - I voted remain.

:24:07.:24:09.

I'm very surprised and actually quite disappointed

:24:10.:24:11.

that you should even raise this question.

:24:12.:24:13.

The year the truth became stretched

:24:14.:24:14.

You bragged that you've sexually assaulted women.

:24:15.:24:19.

I don't think you understood what was said.

:24:20.:24:24.

Whether you like him or not, and I don't,

:24:25.:24:34.

he is clearly an incredibly talented 21st-century communicator.

:24:35.:24:36.

People will expect that from their leaders after 2016.

:24:37.:24:39.

For me, 2016 has been something of a blur.

:24:40.:24:42.

Not just a sense of events overtaking us.

:24:43.:24:45.

they've just been rather important ones.

:24:46.:24:49.

More a sense of assumptions changing.

:24:50.:24:51.

For many, it's disorienting and they reach out for historical parallels.

:24:52.:24:56.

Some reassuring ones or some obvious and rather dark ones.

:24:57.:25:02.

The most commonly cited comparator is the 1930s.

:25:03.:25:05.

You have outsider parties or outsider movements that arrive on

:25:06.:25:18.

the political scene saying, we're not the same as other people,

:25:19.:25:20.

that are not working for ordinary people.

:25:21.:25:25.

That becomes enormously seductive to people who

:25:26.:25:27.

do feel they've been left behind or their voices are disregarded.

:25:28.:25:33.

It wasn't just the Nazis - Italy, Spain all had their fascists too.

:25:34.:25:39.

There was Oswald Moseley in the UK and the

:25:40.:25:41.

left-wing populist Huey Long over in the US.

:25:42.:25:51.

Those outsider parties have been relatively contained in Western

:25:52.:25:53.

democracies since the end of the Second World War.

:25:54.:25:55.

And they're here and we're very worried about them.

:25:56.:26:02.

The '30s can also be remembered for a US-led

:26:03.:26:04.

adding to the disintegration of international co-operation.

:26:05.:26:09.

But I also think issues are very tricky at

:26:10.:26:12.

the moment in terms of the breakdown of what have been very, very secure

:26:13.:26:15.

Especially the EU, Nato, for all its faults.

:26:16.:26:23.

And these seem to be under great pressure.

:26:24.:26:26.

If you lose the structures of international collaboration,

:26:27.:26:29.

such as they are, which allow people to think collectively

:26:30.:26:31.

or to think internationally, then, it is lost.

:26:32.:26:36.

internationalists were very, very difficult to find.

:26:37.:26:40.

VOICE-OVER: A vast pro-Nazi gathering,

:26:41.:26:44.

carrying on the pro-Nazi campaign of back to Germany.

:26:45.:26:47.

But historians are never keen on glib comparisons,

:26:48.:26:51.

By reaching for the most familiar piece of history,

:26:52.:26:54.

We have to be very careful of this 1930s comparisons.

:26:55.:27:02.

The fact is, it's the only history taught in our schools.

:27:03.:27:05.

It's the only history anyone knows anymore.

:27:06.:27:07.

There are no militarised paramilitary organisations as there

:27:08.:27:15.

were in the 1930s, that really characterised 1930s.

:27:16.:27:21.

There aren't Stormtroopers or Blackshirts.

:27:22.:27:22.

This is, in many ways, the working of democracy.

:27:23.:27:31.

The working of democracy in the sense that?

:27:32.:27:33.

One of the great things about democracy is it reflects

:27:34.:27:39.

And they can make changes, radical changes,

:27:40.:27:43.

without having to turn to revolutionary violence.

:27:44.:27:48.

One of the roles of the media has to be not to

:27:49.:27:51.

indulge in hyperbolic Hitler-spotting.

:27:52.:27:59.

Perhaps then the year should be seen as one in which the elite were

:28:00.:28:08.

overthrown. I don't think it's so much the 1930s. Perhaps the 1830s is

:28:09.:28:12.

a better one. Then you have the Chancellor of Austria, the prince,

:28:13.:28:18.

and a group of like-minded monks and statesmen actually deciding what was

:28:19.:28:23.

good for Europe for 30 or 40 or 50 years, and they believed, a bit like

:28:24.:28:30.

the EU elite today, that they were absolutely right, there was no other

:28:31.:28:35.

way but their way, and of course gradually bubbling under was

:28:36.:28:38.

resistance to this, so maybe the 1830s instead of the 1930s. It's

:28:39.:28:45.

hard to make sense of 2016. The end of one kind of order but we haven't

:28:46.:28:48.

yet seen the construction of a new one.

:28:49.:28:56.

Two or three times you get a junction in the court -- course of

:28:57.:29:01.

history. And we had one. In the confusion of different directions.

:29:02.:29:03.

And that explains many of the contradictions we are seeing. Donald

:29:04.:29:08.

Trump getting the support of Americans are -- American

:29:09.:29:12.

Conservatives even though he's not a Conservative. He's an

:29:13.:29:16.

interventionist. Brexit. A vote against globalisation, and yet the

:29:17.:29:20.

Brexiteers say that we are going to become a beacon of global free

:29:21.:29:26.

trade. We all are over the place and a complete mess.

:29:27.:29:30.

So perhaps there are useful parallels to be drawn between the

:29:31.:29:33.

messy upsets that come along every now and then in the form of

:29:34.:29:38.

revolutions. Lenin definitely would have recognised this as a

:29:39.:29:41.

revolutionary moment and he would have found a way of seizing on it.

:29:42.:29:46.

Revolutions happen when assumptions that generations have had for very

:29:47.:29:50.

long periods have broken down and people no longer believe in them. We

:29:51.:29:58.

are seeing that very much in 2016. Russia, of course, had two

:29:59.:30:02.

revolutions in 1917. One overthrew the Czar and the odd assumptions. It

:30:03.:30:07.

was the second, months later, that saw an opportunistic Lenin grabbed

:30:08.:30:12.

power. He promised people everything and anything. He lied unashamedly.

:30:13.:30:20.

He identified a scapegoat that he could then blame for everything. He

:30:21.:30:26.

used the word "Elite" a lot. He said people had heard too much from

:30:27.:30:30.

experts. One feature of the current situation is not that events are

:30:31.:30:36.

just unpredictable, but that you can get perverse outcomes. Democracy has

:30:37.:30:40.

its foibles and the public can get things that perhaps they never

:30:41.:30:43.

really intended. You can have a binary vote, very evenly matched,

:30:44.:30:50.

but then that leads to quite an extreme outcome. Public preferences

:30:51.:30:53.

are quite complicated things. We all want the public to have their say

:30:54.:30:57.

but the challenge is to reduce that down to something simple while

:30:58.:31:02.

capturing some of the nuance, and to make sure that in the process the

:31:03.:31:05.

public does get what it really wants.

:31:06.:31:11.

Can the outcome sometimes be very perverse? That there is a sort of...

:31:12.:31:15.

The intended outcome of the revolution is not where the

:31:16.:31:20.

revolution ends up? Yes! One obvious one is the French Revolution. One of

:31:21.:31:24.

the most famous of them all, when they wanted to get rid of a king and

:31:25.:31:27.

ended up ten years later with an Emperor! Hitler was called to become

:31:28.:31:34.

Chancellor in 1933 and at that time he was intended to be the puppet of

:31:35.:31:38.

right wing Conservatives, and of course within weeks, he was out of

:31:39.:31:42.

control. So there is an unintended consequence of a major, major sort.

:31:43.:31:51.

1830s, 1917, 19 30s. Each history has something useful to say but none

:31:52.:31:54.

can really tell us where 2016 will lead. I don't think you've had the

:31:55.:32:00.

revolution yet, Evan. If the revolution is coming will know about

:32:01.:32:05.

it. It won't just be two unexpected elections. This is not 1917. This is

:32:06.:32:12.

the year democracy actually spoke. Comeback in 100 years and I'll tell

:32:13.:32:13.

you about 2016! Mary Kaldor is from

:32:14.:32:16.

the London School of Economics and John Fredricks is a Talk Radio

:32:17.:32:18.

host and joins us from Virginia. Mary, do you find yourself at all

:32:19.:32:30.

attracted to any comparisons to the 1930s, or are you Hitler-spotting if

:32:31.:32:34.

you look for them? There are two comparisons. This sense of

:32:35.:32:38.

foreboding. This sense we're in a phoney war and we haven't really

:32:39.:32:43.

felt the effects of Brexit and Donald Trump. And that something bad

:32:44.:32:48.

is going to happen. The other is this is all about the crisis of

:32:49.:32:54.

political representation. What is really disturbing, which ask is what

:32:55.:32:58.

happened in the thirties, is the way the opposition a caving in. You see

:32:59.:33:03.

the opposition on Brexit in this country, is totally accepting

:33:04.:33:07.

Brexit. Nobody is saying, look, we may have voted for Brexit but it's

:33:08.:33:12.

really bad for us. Everyone is caving in on immigration. We can't

:33:13.:33:17.

actually control immigration. If the opposition goes on and agrees to

:33:18.:33:21.

talk about control of immigration, it just feeds of right-wing

:33:22.:33:27.

discourse. And, more alarmingly, I think, it legitimises the growth of

:33:28.:33:31.

hate crime. I'm really nervous about where it will lead. We won't be able

:33:32.:33:36.

to control immigration. I think it could lead to really dangerous

:33:37.:33:41.

racism and violence in the future. That's a pessimistic view. John

:33:42.:33:45.

Fredricks. You're not in that camp. What do you think about people who

:33:46.:33:52.

evoke the 1930s at this point? Even, first of all, thanks for having me.

:33:53.:33:58.

Mary just gave you the view of the globalist elitist who don't really

:33:59.:34:01.

understand what's going on across the world. First of all, this has

:34:02.:34:07.

nothing to do with the 1930s movement towards fascism. That was

:34:08.:34:13.

about nationalism. This is about Severnity and jobs. This is a

:34:14.:34:19.

workers revolution. Has nothing to do with ethnicity or race. It is not

:34:20.:34:26.

a revolution of nationalism, it's a work lash. This is about jobs.

:34:27.:34:32.

People in various countries, they want their countries back. They've

:34:33.:34:37.

seen their jobs shipped all over the globe because the elite, globalist

:34:38.:34:42.

international gangsters bangster network has scoured the earth for

:34:43.:34:51.

cheap labour and shipped their jobs everywhere or they've let I will

:34:52.:34:54.

leaguals come in to take their jobs. This has nothing to do with anything

:34:55.:34:59.

accept people wanting jobs. Let me tell you something, with all the

:35:00.:35:05.

talk about whatever Mary was saying, the elitist gobble de gook you just

:35:06.:35:10.

heard, let me tell you something, economic prosperity and jobs is the

:35:11.:35:14.

great equaliser. The great unifier. A pay cheque has no ideology.

:35:15.:35:22.

Putting... John, can I come in... Very briefly. You're saying it is an

:35:23.:35:28.

anti-globalisation thing but it's not a nationalism thing? That's

:35:29.:35:34.

quite a subtle distinction. What's the difference between wanting your

:35:35.:35:39.

country back, making America grate again and being a nationalist?

:35:40.:35:44.

Because it's not about America. It's about American jobs. OK. That's

:35:45.:35:50.

good. This is a jobs revolution. OK. Mary? I completely agree that this

:35:51.:35:59.

was an anguished vote of those left behind by globalisation. But the

:36:00.:36:04.

answer to that cannot be nationalism. The answer has to be in

:36:05.:36:10.

Terre nationalism. It has to be dealing with those multinational

:36:11.:36:13.

corporations and taxing their safe havens which is what the European

:36:14.:36:17.

Union does. Regulating financial speculation. If we really want big

:36:18.:36:22.

programmes of sub lick spending in a globalised world, we can only do it

:36:23.:36:26.

through institutions like the European Union. And, so to argue

:36:27.:36:31.

this is an answer to the problem is crazy. Look, can I suggest what this

:36:32.:36:37.

year has been is a collapse of left/right dichotomy. What we have

:36:38.:36:44.

now represented here in this discussion is a new dichotomy. Open

:36:45.:36:48.

to the world. International collaboration is the solution to the

:36:49.:36:52.

nation state being the answer to the world's problems. John, you're

:36:53.:36:57.

basically, it's not really a right-wing or left-wing thing

:36:58.:37:03.

anymore. I can't place Donald Trump. He's an interventionists difficult

:37:04.:37:08.

to place. We know where he stands on the national versus globalism

:37:09.:37:13.

spectrum. Is that fair as to where politics as moved, John? Evan,

:37:14.:37:18.

you're right. This is a transformational president.

:37:19.:37:23.

President-elect trump is transforming the hub can party in

:37:24.:37:27.

America. The real bottom line to this is, I disagree with Mary on

:37:28.:37:34.

this, Mary, what this whole movement is about across the globe, both in

:37:35.:37:40.

the UK and France, just happened in the United States, is people want

:37:41.:37:47.

their countries back but it's not a movement of nationalism. It's a

:37:48.:37:56.

movement of protecting jobs. The international bankster network

:37:57.:37:59.

scours the earth for cheap slave labour in order to cut out workers

:38:00.:38:07.

that make a decent wage. When you get down to it, this whole argument,

:38:08.:38:12.

everything that's happening, the reaction is to the globalist search

:38:13.:38:19.

for cheap slave labour and they cut out the jobs of people in those

:38:20.:38:23.

sovereign nations. So, I want to stop this. Get my jobs back. Mary, I

:38:24.:38:30.

think of you as a liberal left-leaning person. John is

:38:31.:38:33.

sounding so much more left-wing than you do. Almost a Marxist, this is a

:38:34.:38:41.

capitalist not almost to drive wages down? I don't disagree with him

:38:42.:38:48.

about globalisation. But I think globalisation has also brought huge

:38:49.:38:52.

benefits. The problem is, we've had dramatic economic growth. But it's

:38:53.:38:59.

only benefitted the rich. If we want, we can't go backwards on

:39:00.:39:04.

globalisation. Globalisation is not just about multinational

:39:05.:39:07.

corporations and free trade. It's about international communication.

:39:08.:39:12.

It's about inter dependence. So, if we want to do anything about it, the

:39:13.:39:19.

only way is by having a say. Taming it by international co-operation?

:39:20.:39:25.

Yes. And, by the way, I want to add, it's rubbish to say it's not

:39:26.:39:30.

nationalism. That stuff about making America great again, not allowing

:39:31.:39:34.

Muslims into the United States, that is not just about jobs. That's pure

:39:35.:39:39.

racism. I think we've lost John. At this point we need to stop anyway.

:39:40.:39:44.

Mary, thank you. John, we might have lost the sound feed to you,

:39:45.:39:47.

annoyingly. Your point was well made.

:39:48.:39:48.

But before we go, we couldn't leave you without marking the 250th

:39:49.:39:53.

They began life in the mid-1700s, when so-called "dissecting puzzles"

:39:54.:40:01.

were handmade by cartographers to help teach children about maps,

:40:02.:40:05.

and really took off at the turn of the last century after production

:40:06.:40:08.

was sped up by the invention of a new mechanical saw known as -

:40:09.:40:12.

An exhibition celebrating the puzzles opened today

:40:13.:40:17.

at the Museum of Brands, Packaging and Advertising in London.

:40:18.:40:20.

Anyway, here's what a Newsnight jigsaw might look like.

:40:21.:40:23.

We got our resident hand model to solve it for us.

:40:24.:40:26.

Hello. Still no sign of anything particularly cold on the horizon. A

:40:27.:41:25.

mild start to the day tomorrow. Rain for Northern Ireland pushing into

:41:26.:41:26.

The latest on the Aleppo evacuation with Evan Davis.

How should journalists treat stolen information in the era of state hacking?

And just how momentous was 2016?


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