Newsnight's Exam 2017 Newsnight


Newsnight's Exam 2017

What will President Trump be like? Will there be a general election? Will the Euro survive the year? Evan Davis debates what 2017 holds in store for the UK, Europe and the US.


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Transcript


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As we all head back to school after the Christmas holiday,

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we've assembled a class of the very brightest students.

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And we're giving them a first-day test.

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The big questions for the year ahead.

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And the shifting structure of super-power politics.

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When do you see the United Nations solving problems? They don't. They

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cause problems. On Britain, Brexit and politics here. We have set

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ourselves on a new direction. And on the European

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project: is it populism and retreat this year,

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or business as usual? 40 minutes to answer as many

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questions as you can. Hello, we haven't put

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them in school uniforms, but we have borrowed the chairs

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and desks to get into the right mood for the new term,

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and to start the year each new term felt like a fresh

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start - neatly ironed clothes, And then, very quickly you found

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that the new term carried It's the year with the honour -

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or dubious honour - So with our brainy panel

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of the able, gifted and talented, we'll be trying to predict

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what will be happening this year. It's only 17 days now,

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until President Trump. So, let's start with some

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questions about him, But frankly, we really don't know

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much about what he thinks he'll He's already disowned some

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of his own campaign lines, No, it's OK. Forget it. That plays

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great before the election. No, we don't care, right?

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His style is obviously erratic presidential

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proclamation by Twitter, leading his fight against the elite

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from his expensive New York apartment, with his oddball

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It'll be interesting to see how they all get on.

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So, question one, what kind of president will President

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From President Putin, who hopes he's found

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a new best friend, to China, which fears it may have

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The truth is there are two populist foreign policies,

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He could take the US back to its pre-World War II

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America first, who cares about the rest of the world?

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Or he could be more internationally assertive, aggressive, even.

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Or could he surprise us by being consensual?

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So the question, what will the new world order look like?

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There is a specific issue facing us all as we wake up

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to news of atrocities, month after month.

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I have a substantial chance of winning. If I win, I don't want to

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broadcast to the enemy exactly what my plan is.

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But we do know that he puts less weight on fighting Assad

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So a specific question for this year, will the West

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Well, some of the questions are essays, some of them a bit shorter.

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But there are no right answers at the moment -

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But to answer some of these US-led questions, I'm with:

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Let's start on Trump. There are two visions, stable, pragmatic Trump who

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bases himself in Washington and another Trump, the Twitter Trump,

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erratic, unpredictable and perhaps sometimes reckless. Jan

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Harper-Hayes, you're from Republicans abroad. Overseas.

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Republicans overseas. Which Trump is it going to be? It's not a which

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Trump. He's a person of duality. If you think about it, he's very

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pragmatic. He's very action oriented. He's very much like Ronald

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Reagan. He said Mr Gorbachev tear down that wall. Trump is, I'm going

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to build the wall. He is going to be a president like JFK, like LBJ and

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even Bill Clinton. You wouldn't have asked Franklin Roosevelt to get off

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the radio. You would not have asked JFK to get off the TV. We don't ask

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Trump to get off Twitter. Tamsin, you're looking less optimistic.

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You're a writer, environmentalist, political activist. It's not the

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fact that Trump is on Twitter that we mind. It's what he says. Judging

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by what he says and who he poise, there we have his -- he appoints,

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there we have in the White House is a racist, sexist, climate change

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defire. -- denier. Do you accept that you might be wrong - Hey, it

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doesn't matter. You say 2017 might be the year when he is sort of

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within normal parameters. I I think the language he has legitimised, the

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hate crimes we're seeing across America, can't be just wash add way

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in saying hey it doesn't matter. What you incite when you say things

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as misogynyst as he has said, when you say we're going to build a wall,

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when you exclude people from the vision of the United States of

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America, when you exclude people from your country, the language

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you're using, then what that provokes is really scary. To be

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honest, the only thing that I see good about the Trump era is the

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resistance that it will create. I'm excited to see that. Matthew Parris.

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You're bigging him up too much. He's just an idiot. The conventional

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wisdom has been oh, he's actually very wise. He'll deal, get sensible

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people around him. He won't. He's an idiot. America has had a lot of

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idiots as presidents. Bush was an idiot and look what he did. He wail

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carry on -- will carry on being ridiculous. The State Department

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will resist him and Congress. The earth will continue in its orbit.

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Ted Malloch you're flying over there tomorrow and hoping to perhaps get a

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job in the Trump team. You're based here. Do you accept that there are

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idiot-like features in Donald Trump? No, we had an election and we won

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that election. The American public has spoken. Trump is not any of the

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things that has been described. He's a fabulously successful business

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person, who placed -- plays chess frankly two moves ahead of everybody

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else on the board. I think we're likely to have a near American

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nirvana in the next 100 days. It won't even take a year. His approval

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rate figures a year's time, let's make a prediction, you think they'll

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be... 60%. Running very high. Perhaps the real test is in his

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foreign policy, between these two Trumps I describe, the erratic one

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and the more stable one, what are you hoping for from a Trump foreign

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policy? Are you hoping he will go out - I actually am not so worried

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on the foreign policy side. I think it's looking at the domestic. If you

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look at what makes us a strong power, it has been our military, our

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economic and soft power, the diplomacy. We have 60 consulates,

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embassies, missions. China only has a few. I think that he really wants

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to concentrate on America because we have been spending so much money

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since the Marshall Plan building other countries up, taking care of

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other people. We have a lot of people to take care of at home.

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You're answering one of the questions I hinted at in that video

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- isolation versus assertiveness internationally. You think he'll,

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it's going to be more - the world should expect more isolation? No,

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again, it's like everyone took Trump literally instead of seriously. When

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you take him literally you take phrases out of context and

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misinterpret him. It is not isolationism. He wants to do

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bilateral agreements. It makes so much sense in the changing world

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today that when you're doing bilateral, if things aren't working

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between the two of you, don't worry about 15 other countries.

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Renegotiate and make things work. That's the direction he's taking,

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not isolationism. One big issue, Paris agreement, climate change,

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let's face it, it's taken quite a lot of painful negotiations. It's

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taken years of people's lives. The commit to get that - sorry. What are

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you expecting over the next year? I don't know what to expect. I fear

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that he will take the United States out of Paris agreement. And if he

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does that, it lays waste to the relentless work of an international

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community who are set on protecting our future against climate change.

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That's why they meet and that's what they've come up with, their best

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effort to do that. It took decades to get there. Now we have a

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president who is treating it like it's children's home work that he

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can tear up and throw away. As a generation who is moving into the

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climate change world, we are going to have to take positions of power

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in a world that will look so different from the one we have today

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and to have the most powerful person in the world appointing climate

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change sceptics... Can you give any assurance? No, it's quite likely

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that America will be first again. That America will be more

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unilateral. It will be more bilateral and it will be much less

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multilateral in a Trump administration. Which means things

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like that treaty and other multilateral accords and certainly

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your comments on the United Nations, I would agree are likely to take the

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back seat. Dia Chakravarty, I know you're a Brexiteer here. You're on

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the right of politics. Are you hopeful or fearful for the next year

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in Trump terms? The way I describe myself would be a liberal really. I

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believe in liberal economic policy. I've not seen much liberalism from

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Trump at all. He does talk about cutting taxes, but in the same

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breath, he talks about increasing spending. That's debt going up. When

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it comes to opening the country for them to trade in, we've seen what

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happens with Ford and General Motors just today. None of that is

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particularly liberal. So I don't really know what I'm meant to be

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excited about here at all. In many respects we've admitted we don't

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know what to expect from Trump. He's all over the place. One last

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question, the one I put at the end there. Could we begin to win the war

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against IS? Jan, Ted, speaking for Trump, do you think this is going to

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be a turning point, Matthew perhaps? We can't win the war against IS, but

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we can't lose the war against IS either. There's no danger of that.

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In the end, I imagine that IS will disappear and be replaced by

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something else. Remember there was Al-Qaeda before them. The Taliban

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before them. There'll be something else that follow them. The thing

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will just smoulder on. Jan, put in a last. From foreign policy stand

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point what he really cares about is attempting to defeat Isis. Working

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with all of our allies and working with the Middle East. He would

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rather have the Middle Eastern countries set up camps for the

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people to stay there, to help out financially, but not go over and

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deal with it. And cyber security is going to be top on his list, both in

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relation to Isis and hacking and everything else. Cyber security is

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going to be on Donald Trump's list. I thought he was quite relaxed about

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this. You know what, I guess, I don't know how to respond at this

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point now that he's president-elect, when people make fun of him or when

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people make him a dichotomy or an either-or. The fact of the matter is

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cyber security is something that impacts all countries. So he wants

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to work with our allies to share information, to share intelligence,

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to get around the data protection aspects in Europe. The more we share

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information, the more we can keep all the countries safe. Interesting

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take. Let's move on. Right, well let's move

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on to the next section of the test. And I suppose it combines politics

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and a bit of geography, given that the big issue is how

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close to the European Only nerds had heard

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of Article 50 a year ago. Now it's all the talk

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of the playground. And if all goes to plan,

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it'll get used for the first time But because we are pioneering our

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course out of the EU, who knows what life in this land

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called Article 50 will be like. The living may be easy,

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but more likely, yes, more likely, In my opinion, the only alternative

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to a hard Brexit is no Brexit. Yes more likely Brexit will be

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challenging. The tendency is to think the PM

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will call the shots, but the interesting debate will be

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among the remaining EU members So the question for Britain

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in 2017 is this one. What kind of Brexit

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will begin to emerge? By the year-end, we shall

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certainly have a clue. Brexit of course is the great schism

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these days, which has kind of disrupted the usual

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course of politics. Stuck in a dilemma,

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Labour has to respect the referendum vote for Leave,

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but can't afford to leave the votes Ukip and Tory, even the Lib Dems,

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have been taking Labour votes in We're going to be campaigning on

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economic justice issues from now on. We're going to be calling out this

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Government for increasing inequality and injustice. I think that message

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will get across. But is Corbyn enough

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of a vote winner? So as we look at 2017,

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the big political question We of course had a general

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election two years ago, Is it time for another,

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for May to get a mandate. So a specific question

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for the year ahead, will we be Let's pick up on the Brexit side of

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that. Just to get some Brexit views and I believe these three on the

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right for the minute. We had you in this studio during the referendum

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campaign, do you have any fears about the kind of deal we are going

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to get. You were on the Brexit side, any concerns or nervousness about

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it? I think we ever did the fear a little bit even before the

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referendum. The way we need to look at it, we have got to make this

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work. And the constant letting down of the country, from certain

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quarters, it is getting tiresome. Sir Ivan Rogers, our most senior

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ambassador in Brussels who resigned today, the BBC obtained his

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resignation note to his colleagues and he said ministers need to hear

:16:22.:16:29.

uncomfortable truth, serious negotiating experience is in short

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supply in Whitehall, the commission of the council are well prepared and

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he said to colleagues, I hope you will continue to challenge ill

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founded arguments and muddled thinking and never be afraid to

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speak the truth to those in power. Is he just some kind of complainer?

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It sounds familiar, we heard all this gloom and doom story before the

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referendum then we have the referendum and nothing happened to

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completely destroyed the world as we know it. But we kept hearing it was

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going to get worse. Then another economic quarter came and things

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were still not as bad as predicted. So at this stage I have no reason to

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believe him over any of the others constantly trying to warn us before

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we actually went through the vote. You were amongst those warning

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before we went to the vote, but it would be a bad thing to me. Are you

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any more optimistic now? Yes, I did think it would be pretty quickly a

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disaster. I now think we may just bump along, not growing quite as

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much as we might have. Not exporting, not being the tiger

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economy bounding out into the world that was promised. We may just bump

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along. But there is one thing that is going to happen in the coming

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year and that is the issue everyone is trying to avoid. The question

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once we have triggered Article 50, can we change our minds and that is

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going to be the big question during 2017. Because I think probably we

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can. I do not think we have to leave. You're not thinking that we

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might change our minds? A service we realised the UK does not have to do

:18:16.:18:18.

leave the EU if we do not like the deal we get then Parliament will

:18:19.:18:23.

become interested again. Matthew Goodwin, you are an expert on the

:18:24.:18:28.

politics of populism, the parties of the right, outside parties. Do you

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think there is any going back now? That we begin to have second

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thoughts and maybe patch something together that is more in than out.

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There is no evidence of any significant changing of minds

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amongst the electorate, it is simply not there. Let me suggest one

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possible scenario. There is an assumption at the moment that the

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British electorate when they experience some kind of economic

:18:58.:19:00.

turbulence that they will rush back to the centre and said we have made

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a terrible mistake, cancel the whole thing and go back to the EU. There

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was a possibility that they would go the other way and say actually, the

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EU is not playing ball with us, and they become harder in their views.

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That is not being seriously considered at the moment. Because it

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will be an unfriendly Brexit that would cause the difficult economic

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times and that is the one that makes you not want to go back in. That is

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no 1's interests, we want what is good for us but also do not want to

:19:32.:19:35.

be unfriendly to our neighbours. You heard Donald Tusk saying that the

:19:36.:19:40.

choice is a hard Brexit board no Brexit. Maybe that is for liberals

:19:41.:19:47.

like you, that is the difficult truth. It is absolutely true. Soft

:19:48.:19:56.

Brexit is presumably Norway, where we keep a lot of what we have but we

:19:57.:20:00.

are not actually in the EU. Who made the best argument against that, it

:20:01.:20:05.

was the remainders. We said it would be ridiculous and worse than just

:20:06.:20:09.

being in the EU. If we're going to leave it is probably going to be a

:20:10.:20:19.

hard wrecks it. -- Brexit. Well we have heard claims about public

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opinion, do you agree with that assessment? I must put my hand up, I

:20:24.:20:31.

have asked a lot, surely now the focus groups are showing that people

:20:32.:20:35.

now that they know what is happening, they regret it and if we

:20:36.:20:39.

ran the referendum again they would vote differently. The answer is no

:20:40.:20:44.

and if anything, I think the other way around. There is some evidence

:20:45.:20:47.

suggesting people who voted remain now just want to see the thing

:20:48.:20:53.

through. And it relates back to the Trump argument as well, there is

:20:54.:20:57.

this sense of the ordinary people against the elite. One guy said to

:20:58.:21:01.

me in a focus group, when I woke up the next morning and found we had

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gone Brexit, I felt England had won the World Cup. He felt it was his

:21:07.:21:10.

team against the others and he had won. It is a powerful and emotive

:21:11.:21:15.

thing. Moving on to British politics. Brexit will play into that

:21:16.:21:23.

I want to bring you in. Someone who knows about the odds. Can the Labour

:21:24.:21:31.

Party recover? We have an early test in the Copeland by-election. It is

:21:32.:21:34.

difficult to see how the Labour Party can move on from its current

:21:35.:21:39.

situation. Their leader is the only leader in the history of labour who

:21:40.:21:43.

has never had positive ratings on any poll ever. That is a very

:21:44.:21:50.

serious situation. And the polling just gets worse and worse. You

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remember you only get one chance to make a first impression and he made

:21:55.:22:00.

a bad one. People will be saying that the polls have been wrong, the

:22:01.:22:05.

experts have been defied. There is an argument that says if Brexit Gus

:22:06.:22:08.

Bradley the public will vote for someone other than the incumbent

:22:09.:22:14.

government and Jeremy Corbyn would be an antiestablishment candidate on

:22:15.:22:17.

the other side and a place they feel they may go. He does not come over

:22:18.:22:23.

as a credible figure, that is the big problem that Labour face. They

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have a leader who is seen as being all over the place, a leader who is

:22:28.:22:35.

tainted with IRA and other terrorist links. Just remember what the Tories

:22:36.:22:43.

did to Ed Miliband because he ate a sound which one it awkwardly. -- 8+

:22:44.:22:56.

which. It is interesting what you say about the sandwich, the media

:22:57.:23:02.

went for him and so public opinion followed and we are seeing something

:23:03.:23:06.

similar with Jeremy Corbyn. The polls are following, there is

:23:07.:23:14.

blanket bad news coverage and now no news coverage really of him. I

:23:15.:23:19.

really hope that people will get behind him. I'm not thinking you

:23:20.:23:27.

have much confidence. The Green Party have gone to him and said we

:23:28.:23:31.

need to form Progressive alliances. That worked in Richmond, we got a

:23:32.:23:38.

left wing person in, someone who was not a Tory. He needs to explore more

:23:39.:23:42.

interesting ways and more modern ways of doing government. That is

:23:43.:23:46.

through alliances. Thinking about Ed Miliband for a moment, in the last

:23:47.:23:53.

Parliament he was scoring 12, 15% higher than Jeremy Corbyn is now and

:23:54.:23:57.

we know what happened after that. On the subject of the polls, as you

:23:58.:24:03.

know, when they get it wrong they tend to understate labour and not

:24:04.:24:07.

overstated. If they are wrong they are likely to be wrong the other way

:24:08.:24:10.

round. I think it is worse than you are saying for Jeremy Corbyn because

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in focus groups it is not that people do not like him, but he is

:24:15.:24:19.

literally irrelevant and has nothing to say to them. I did some focus

:24:20.:24:23.

groups a few weeks ago and I showed a photograph at half the people they

:24:24.:24:30.

did not know who he was. Jeremy Corbyn is no good but he may go and

:24:31.:24:35.

you imagine if Ed Balls came back in to leave the Labour Party, imagine

:24:36.:24:42.

Theresa May stumbles badly. That is a big leap of the imagination.

:24:43.:24:49.

Forget the leaders, the Labour Party, this is a crisis facing

:24:50.:24:53.

social democracy, they have run out of ideas. The rules of politics have

:24:54.:25:00.

changed and the Labour Party and socialists have nothing to say to

:25:01.:25:03.

that. It is not about Jeremy Corbyn or Labour, it is social democracy

:25:04.:25:09.

running out of ideas. Just a show of hands, how many feel they will

:25:10.:25:13.

probably be a general election this year in the UK. And how many do not

:25:14.:25:19.

think there will be. That was interesting. The rule for exams, if

:25:20.:25:28.

you do not finish a question it does not matter as long as you said

:25:29.:25:29.

something clever. And on that note,

:25:30.:25:32.

we have to move on. We've talked about Brexit,

:25:33.:25:34.

but Europe has other issues If Trump made the US the country

:25:35.:25:36.

of global attention in 2016, it is the continent of Europe

:25:37.:25:40.

which may dominate 2017. She and her National Front

:25:41.:25:43.

are the ones to watch. She is running at about 25%

:25:44.:25:57.

in the polls, for the French When the vote comes, given the size

:25:58.:26:00.

and importance of France, whether she wins or loses

:26:01.:26:06.

answers the big European Which is, will populism advance or

:26:07.:26:09.

retreat on the European continent? It's been a rough few

:26:10.:26:18.

years for the EU. The migrant crisis has

:26:19.:26:21.

exposed the fragility Schengen for example removed

:26:22.:26:23.

borders, but some of them went up again very quickly when large

:26:24.:26:29.

numbers of people came in. Europe's been trapped

:26:30.:26:32.

between retreating and reinstating national boundaries and advancing

:26:33.:26:35.

by having a proper common So now we wait for

:26:36.:26:40.

the answer to this. Will the European project move

:26:41.:26:59.

further into reverse? Oh, and then of course the biggest

:27:00.:27:04.

problem of all is the euro. The combination in some countries

:27:05.:27:07.

of uncompetitiveness, low growth, banks in trouble

:27:08.:27:09.

and big government debts. Yes, that's Italy, a country

:27:10.:27:13.

too big to be ignored. So a final quickie,

:27:14.:27:16.

will the euro survive the year? Let's go straight in on some of

:27:17.:27:32.

those questions. You are a betting man, what does the current odds on

:27:33.:27:39.

Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency? About 22% chance. That

:27:40.:27:44.

is what Trump was given. Yes, indeed. That is what is happening at

:27:45.:27:49.

the moment. People do not bet to provide an alternative prediction

:27:50.:27:53.

but to try to make money. I suppose the 20% chance, people have now seen

:27:54.:27:59.

Trump and perhaps they are more cautious. And again I love the

:28:00.:28:05.

French system, they have all the candidates standing and then the

:28:06.:28:12.

final to stand a fortnight later. I think Marine Le Pen has got a

:28:13.:28:14.

problem getting into the second round. But in the polls she is

:28:15.:28:19.

getting into the second round. At the moment but they might be a level

:28:20.:28:25.

of coalescing around the first round, and on someone who could

:28:26.:28:31.

actually squeeze her out. Matthew Goodwin, the big question and you

:28:32.:28:37.

hinted at this at the end of the last section, populism on the

:28:38.:28:43.

rampage around the world. To use that as a shorthand. The continent

:28:44.:28:48.

of Europe, this could be the year that it stops comment Marine Le Pen

:28:49.:28:51.

does not win France, Angela Merkel hangs on in Germany and then it is

:28:52.:28:57.

game over for populism. We had a strange moment during the rerun of

:28:58.:29:00.

the Austrian presidential elections when liberals or all of social media

:29:01.:29:06.

saying it is great, celebrate the radical right only got 46% of the

:29:07.:29:11.

national vote as if this was somehow acceptable outcome for the European

:29:12.:29:15.

Union whereas in 2002 there was a global meltdown when Jean-Marie Le

:29:16.:29:26.

Pen achieved some victory. That is how quickly the tide has come up the

:29:27.:29:31.

beach of your leap -- of European politics. Populists have recognised

:29:32.:29:33.

that cultural protectionism matters as much as economic protectionism to

:29:34.:29:37.

the voters and that has enabled them to move into both working-class

:29:38.:29:43.

stronghold and that is why social democracy has collapsed at just

:29:44.:29:46.

about the same time as the populist right has entered into a new phase

:29:47.:29:51.

of strength. It does not matter if Marine Le Pen does not win or the

:29:52.:29:57.

AFP do not overturn Angela Merkel. Because these parties are here to

:29:58.:29:59.

stay. The EU is like a lorry going down a

:30:00.:30:10.

superhighway at high speed with all four tyres coming off. This year

:30:11.:30:12.

you'll find at least three of those falling off. If there's one thing

:30:13.:30:16.

that I want to predict it's your last question, what would you do

:30:17.:30:20.

around the euro? I'd be shorting the euro. Do you really think the, if

:30:21.:30:29.

Merkel wins and Marine Le Pen doesn't win in the two biggest

:30:30.:30:33.

countries, you basically have business as usual. You will have a

:30:34.:30:37.

right-wing president in France, even if Le Pen loses. That's an anomaly.

:30:38.:30:42.

Things change completely in France. Italy is the first one to turn, the

:30:43.:30:48.

Netherlands has its election. It looks like a vast number of parties

:30:49.:30:53.

competing, but it looks like the right-wing party will win. There's

:30:54.:30:57.

enormous change on the European front. It's basically the end of the

:30:58.:31:01.

European project. How many of you, I want to do a show of hands, I liked

:31:02.:31:06.

the last one - how many think the euro will go out of business

:31:07.:31:11.

basically implode or disintegrate this year or shortly after it? How

:31:12.:31:14.

many of you would bet on that actually out of interest? Just you,

:31:15.:31:23.

Ted. Matthew, I saw you trying to come in. The problem with populism,

:31:24.:31:30.

the problem that Matthew Goodwin identifies with social democracy, it

:31:31.:31:35.

doesn't really have a viable manifesto. So it can make a lot of

:31:36.:31:40.

noise when it's in opposition, when it gets into government, it fails. I

:31:41.:31:46.

think Matthew's right, it's a tide. Populism has reached high tide. I

:31:47.:31:54.

don't think Marine Le Pen is going to win. In Austria things seem to

:31:55.:31:58.

have been held back. I have a feeling that this is the year in

:31:59.:32:02.

which populism peaks in Europe. Matthew, go on. I'm not as

:32:03.:32:08.

convinced, given that, you know, the old left and right division in

:32:09.:32:12.

politics now is making way for what academics call a new cultural divide

:32:13.:32:17.

between those who essentially are at ease with the pace of ethnic change

:32:18.:32:21.

and those that feel profoundly anxious about it. That's going to be

:32:22.:32:25.

with us for another generation, two generations, three generations.

:32:26.:32:29.

That's not going anywhere. At the same time, that's coinciding with

:32:30.:32:34.

rising economic inequality. Making the same groups of voters feel even

:32:35.:32:37.

more neglected and disaffected. Until we deal with the underlying

:32:38.:32:45.

occurents -- currents it will continue. I have a board member that

:32:46.:32:49.

works for Facebook in government affairs, she said of the 1. 6

:32:50.:32:56.

billion users, over 60% around the globe are posting insurgent

:32:57.:33:01.

political issues. It is not unique to the US, the UK, Austria, France.

:33:02.:33:06.

It's a fashion. We've looked at the US, we've looked at the UK and we've

:33:07.:33:10.

had a brief look at Europe. One last question, which is has the world

:33:11.:33:15.

become harder to predict? Last year was the one nearly every expert got

:33:16.:33:17.

wrong. Last year was the one nearly

:33:18.:33:24.

every expert got wrong, but there were a handful of diviners

:33:25.:33:26.

and soothsayers who called So we've invited them

:33:27.:33:29.

to share their prognostications for the coming 12 months,

:33:30.:33:32.

with our own Gypsy And a happy New Year

:33:33.:33:34.

from everyone at Newsnight. Shall we see what lies

:33:35.:33:40.

ahead for us all? I don't know about you,

:33:41.:33:40.

but nothing beats those back to work For my part, I'm falling

:33:41.:33:49.

back on tried and tested And trying to contact the few

:33:50.:33:53.

clairvoyants who were spot on about 2016 to get their tips

:33:54.:33:59.

for the New Year. I should add that I'm

:34:00.:34:04.

not a real medium. It's a Scottish professor based

:34:05.:34:06.

at an American university. Well, I'm three for three just now,

:34:07.:34:22.

so I've got Brexit, then I've got Trump,

:34:23.:34:27.

then I've got the For all of the sturm

:34:28.:34:28.

und drang about Brexit, and whether Britain should have

:34:29.:34:35.

left, it might actually be the case You have an election

:34:36.:34:38.

coming up in France. It's entirely plausible

:34:39.:34:44.

the National Front will At that point, everyone in France

:34:45.:34:46.

is meant to organise a giant blocking coalition to stop

:34:47.:34:51.

them being elected. That would mean everyone

:34:52.:34:53.

on the French left has to vote for someone who basically wants

:34:54.:34:56.

to bring Thatcher's economic policy menu to France,

:34:57.:35:00.

and that's after eight Now I'm getting an economic

:35:01.:35:02.

policy adviser, I wonder I think inflation is

:35:03.:35:10.

going to be the story. I've written a lot

:35:11.:35:22.

about shrinkflation which is a precursor,

:35:23.:35:24.

which I think everybody When you open a box of cereal

:35:25.:35:26.

and it's the same size and it costs the same, but there

:35:27.:35:31.

is only half as much inside. That was the signal that price

:35:32.:35:36.

pressures were in the economy and I think now they'll bubble up

:35:37.:35:39.

and we'll actually see Champions Leicester City began

:35:40.:35:43.

their title defence against a Hull OMG, now I'm picking up

:35:44.:35:49.

Grindr on this thing! Losing his shirt, and his trousers,

:35:50.:35:53.

after Leicester City won Others called it right, and backed

:35:54.:35:58.

their hunch at the bookies. They did it, and they won

:35:59.:36:07.

the league and I won just over I think they're going to end up

:36:08.:36:10.

mid-table this year. I can't see them winning it

:36:11.:36:16.

because there's another team which is doing really well,

:36:17.:36:19.

and they're getting the results. So things might look

:36:20.:36:22.

black for the Foxes, and also for another big winner

:36:23.:36:31.

of last year, according to a man who's been

:36:32.:36:34.

predicting US elections correctly for 30 odd years,

:36:35.:36:36.

including the last one. My crystal ball sees some very dark

:36:37.:36:41.

things ahead for Mr Trump. Even before the election I predicted

:36:42.:36:45.

that Mr Trump was likely to be impeached or maybe resign

:36:46.:36:49.

in the course of an impeachment. This isn't a scientific

:36:50.:36:53.

prediction, it's from the gut. We all know about the machinations

:36:54.:36:55.

of Trump University and we all know 12 women have accused him of sexual

:36:56.:36:59.

assault, a crime. And he actually gave us

:37:00.:37:04.

all a blueprint of how he did it. If you're president,

:37:05.:37:07.

as Harry Truman once said, You're riding the tiger

:37:08.:37:10.

on your own, and I'm not sure Our final seer isn't celebrated

:37:11.:37:14.

for predicting anything, so much as for being the unpredicted

:37:15.:37:24.

winner of the Booker Paul Beatty, the first American

:37:25.:37:26.

to win after his book He thinks Trump could be good

:37:27.:37:31.

for creative business. I think people are charged,

:37:32.:37:37.

you know, as opposed to feeling enervated,

:37:38.:37:41.

which I think is often the case. So yeah, sometimes it's nice

:37:42.:37:45.

to have something to write against or to scream

:37:46.:37:49.

against or rant. I don't know if that

:37:50.:37:53.

necessarily produces, But I think the more

:37:54.:37:55.

stuff that's out there, the more stuff that's going to be

:37:56.:37:59.

good, you know. So people are charged

:38:00.:38:02.

to create, you know, Just a couple of other

:38:03.:38:04.

things I noticed in there. It's going to be a great year

:38:05.:38:15.

for Librans, redheads, And that carries the full imprimatur

:38:16.:38:18.

and majesty of Newsnight behind it. Steve Smith with people who got

:38:19.:38:36.

something right in 2016. I had a serious question which was is the

:38:37.:38:39.

world getting harder to forecast. Mike? I think it is. Are betting

:38:40.:38:44.

odds getting longer on average? We've had two extraordinary

:38:45.:38:50.

situations. We had the Brexit vote, at 11pm on June 23, it was rated

:38:51.:38:57.

Remain was rated at 94% chance. What happened within a two, three hours,

:38:58.:39:04.

a completely complapsed. It wasn't that hard to predict Brexit. The

:39:05.:39:09.

whole premise is it was amazing, like Leicester City winning the

:39:10.:39:11.

Premier League. It wasn't that hard. If you looked at the polls you would

:39:12.:39:16.

have said it was 60-40. Almost 50/50. There were more polls in the

:39:17.:39:23.

final month that predicted a Leave victory than predicted Remain. It

:39:24.:39:27.

was the media's coverage of the polls and the ones which had the big

:39:28.:39:30.

Remain leads which created the atmosphere. That brings us to polls.

:39:31.:39:35.

You do this stuff. It feels like those have been getting more wrong

:39:36.:39:38.

over the years. I don't think that's right. In fact, in the US, the

:39:39.:39:43.

national polls were actually right. Where they got it wrong was in the

:39:44.:39:49.

detailed state polls. The Brexit polls actually as you've just said,

:39:50.:39:54.

they were mainly right. Huffington Post are putting a 99% chance on

:39:55.:39:58.

Trump losing. It's not that the polls were wrong, I don't think it's

:39:59.:40:02.

just the media. I think the experts were wrong. I think the evidence was

:40:03.:40:06.

there and they weren't hearing it. They weren't listening to it. So

:40:07.:40:12.

inside the beltway in the US, in the Westminster bubble, people were, it

:40:13.:40:15.

was confirmation bias, they were talking to their mates. Everybody

:40:16.:40:19.

agreed with everybody. Actually, they weren't hearing what the

:40:20.:40:23.

people, the sorts of people that Matthew's been talking about, were

:40:24.:40:26.

actually saying. So there was a world where lots of people were

:40:27.:40:29.

unhappy about the effects of globalisation and nobody was

:40:30.:40:34.

listening to them. Thanks all. The papers leading tomorrow on Ivan

:40:35.:40:43.

Rogers resignation. That's about it for us tonight.

:40:44.:40:45.

Well, predictions - as you have seen -

:40:46.:40:47.

are not for telling you what is going to happen,

:40:48.:40:50.

but just to make you think about the year ahead and some

:40:51.:40:52.

Top marks to our class of 2017 - thank you to them for playing along.

:40:53.:40:58.

And it is a happy journalistic tradition to never ever hold people

:40:59.:41:03.

to their predictions, we just get you along to give them.

:41:04.:41:06.

Newsnight will, of course, be with you for the whole of 2017 -

:41:07.:41:09.

Hello there. Certainly looks as though we're going to see more in

:41:10.:41:25.

the way of cloud and outbreaks of showery rain sinking their way south

:41:26.:41:29.

over the next few hours. Gales or severe gales for a time across the

:41:30.:41:35.

far north-east, the Northern Isles. That brings a scattering of

:41:36.:41:36.

What will President Trump be like? Will there be a general election? Will the Euro survive the year? Evan Davis and guests debate what 2017 holds in store - for the UK, Europe and the US.


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