28/03/2017 Newsnight


28/03/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Naga Munchetty.


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Transcript


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Could the next shock to the global liberal establishment be Le Pen?

:00:00.:00:11.

We speak to the great hope of populism in France.

:00:12.:00:35.

Also tonight, Theresa May will formally begins the Brexit

:00:36.:00:38.

And we send the High Priest of Remainism to understand why

:00:39.:00:52.

Ebbw Vale in South Wales voted so emphatically for Brexit.

:00:53.:00:59.

So much of the investment here has come from the European Union. The

:01:00.:01:06.

college, the station, all of these buildings were invested in from

:01:07.:01:13.

funds from the EU. Funds which won't necessarily be replaced by

:01:14.:01:16.

governments in London and Cardiff. My first question is why did people

:01:17.:01:20.

vote in large numbers against the European Union, the source of so

:01:21.:01:22.

much investment in this community? "One more sleep", as one Leave

:01:23.:01:29.

supporting blog tweeted today. By this time tomorrow,

:01:30.:01:35.

the Prime Minister will have triggered Article 50 and Britain's

:01:36.:01:37.

departure from the European Union As we will hear over the course

:01:38.:01:40.

of tonight's programme, In a moment, Emily gets

:01:41.:01:47.

Marine Le Pen's take on Brexit and, But first I'm joined

:01:48.:01:52.

by our political editor Nick Watt in the studio,

:01:53.:01:55.

and by our Diplomatic Editor Nick, what is exactly going to

:01:56.:02:10.

happen tomorrow? It will have the feel of a budget day. Theresa May

:02:11.:02:14.

will brief colleagues can only meeting of the Cabinet, then she

:02:15.:02:17.

will do her normal Prime Minister's Questions and that will be followed

:02:18.:02:21.

by her statement on the Article 50 letter. At around the time she

:02:22.:02:26.

stands up in the Commons, the UK ambassador to the EU Sir Tim Barrow

:02:27.:02:30.

will hand the real copy of the letter to the European Council

:02:31.:02:34.

president Donald Tusk in Brussels, and Donald Tusk is then expected to

:02:35.:02:39.

tweet he has received it. That will mark the formal triggering of

:02:40.:02:43.

Article 50. What we really want to know is what is in the letter? I'm

:02:44.:02:47.

told the tone will be friendly, it will essentially set out the

:02:48.:02:51.

framework of her Lancaster house speech in January. What that said is

:02:52.:02:55.

a close trading relationship but no membership of the European single

:02:56.:03:00.

market. What I'm told is going to be really interesting is what isn't in

:03:01.:03:10.

the letter. It will not get into generalities, you will not see a sum

:03:11.:03:13.

of money on what the UK is prepared or not prepared to pay for the exit

:03:14.:03:16.

bill and I'm told there will not be any date on a cut-off date for when

:03:17.:03:19.

the rights of EU citizens in the UK will stop. The guiding thought is do

:03:20.:03:23.

not repeat the mistake of David Cameron, who put too much detail in

:03:24.:03:28.

his letter for his EU negotiations, and gave the impression that he was

:03:29.:03:34.

scared of walking away. Keep your cards close. OK. Mark, what has been

:03:35.:03:40.

the reaction in Europe today? What we can expect tomorrow is, firstly,

:03:41.:03:44.

expressions of regret that Britain is going ahead with this. Then

:03:45.:03:50.

pretty swiftly after that, some fundamental declarations of

:03:51.:03:54.

principle. On the financial issue, I think you can expect a pretty hard

:03:55.:03:59.

line. The EU's legal advice is that Britain is liable for budget

:04:00.:04:04.

contributions, one person told me tonight at least 45 billion euros

:04:05.:04:08.

between now and 2020. And they simply will say they won't budge. By

:04:09.:04:14.

about one month's time, the formal negotiating guidelines will have

:04:15.:04:18.

been given to the negotiator and I think things will go quiet for a

:04:19.:04:25.

while. For a whole load of reasons, including in this country and

:04:26.:04:28.

others. Then I think we will see things playing into next year with

:04:29.:04:32.

particularly the German strategy and that of the president of the

:04:33.:04:36.

European Council Donald Tusk, I think will be to take a tough line

:04:37.:04:40.

and offer Britain as many opportunities to change its mind as

:04:41.:04:44.

possible, right up to that vote on the terms of the deal as it is being

:04:45.:04:51.

proposed that will happen in Parliament towards the end of the

:04:52.:04:56.

process. Nick, we can't forget today there has been another vote in

:04:57.:04:59.

Scotland to request another independence referendum. And they've

:05:00.:05:04.

predictable response from the UK Government saying now isn't the time

:05:05.:05:08.

to have that. On Thursday David Davis will say to the Scottish

:05:09.:05:13.

Government and the other devolved administrations, the UK Government

:05:14.:05:16.

doesn't want to hoard power. He will say he is prepared to hand back

:05:17.:05:22.

some, but not all powers on fisheries and agriculture, to those

:05:23.:05:24.

devolved administrations. David Davis will do that when he sets out

:05:25.:05:29.

the next stage after the triggering of Article 50, the Great Repeal

:05:30.:05:32.

Bill. It annuls the Act of Parliament that took us into the EEC

:05:33.:05:37.

and it secondly brings back into UK law all the EU law. Really

:05:38.:05:43.

interesting on the next stage after that, what of those EU laws that

:05:44.:05:47.

will be in UK law, what they should appeal. He will say that isn't this

:05:48.:05:52.

Parliament, that is that the next Parliament, put it in the Tory

:05:53.:05:56.

manifesto. Reaction will be very interesting. Thank you.

:05:57.:06:01.

Once the ceremonies of tomorrow's triggering are done with, there is

:06:02.:06:09.

the possibility of no deal at all. We are joined by Anna Seabury and

:06:10.:06:15.

Bernard Jenkin. Good evening. -- Anna Soubry. I'm an ex-Remainer. We

:06:16.:06:24.

are leaving the EU so I don't know what you would call me. Are you a

:06:25.:06:31.

happy lever? Of course I'm not. I think our country has lost the plot

:06:32.:06:34.

and an extremely worried about our future. But we've got this vote,

:06:35.:06:39.

we've got to deliver it, the Prime Minister has been remarkably

:06:40.:06:43.

courageous in stepping up accepting this button which she would clearly

:06:44.:06:46.

not have chosen, and she's now got to deliver four bespoke deals in

:06:47.:06:52.

under two years. Almost an impossible task. You don't think she

:06:53.:06:57.

can do it? I think she's got to be brave to say if we need more time,

:06:58.:07:01.

if we need a transition period she's got to do that. Most of all, she's

:07:02.:07:06.

got to resist the calls from dear Bernard who will urge her with his

:07:07.:07:10.

merry band who have been wreaking havoc in my party for decades, to

:07:11.:07:15.

avoid a hard Brexit which nobody in my constituency, nor I believe

:07:16.:07:19.

anywhere else in the country, voted for. Is it a problem if there is no

:07:20.:07:23.

deal? You said it's almost impossible for her... Let it just

:07:24.:07:29.

find out from Bernard, do you think it is a disaster if there isn't a

:07:30.:07:33.

deal? It depends what you mean by deal. I agree the idea we are going

:07:34.:07:37.

to finish up with a comprehensive trade agreement within two years is

:07:38.:07:41.

extremely unlikely, not least because the EU would find it very

:07:42.:07:46.

difficult to agree such a deal. It takes the EU a very long time to

:07:47.:07:49.

agree these things. So I think Anna is right that we finish up with some

:07:50.:07:54.

kind of transitional arrangement. What we should hope for is that we

:07:55.:08:00.

will sign sensible arrangements have customs facilitation and memoranda

:08:01.:08:03.

of understanding and that sort of thing. Which the EU has with every

:08:04.:08:07.

other country trades within the world, whether or not it's got a

:08:08.:08:12.

trade deal. Hopefully we'll get the EU to accept our offer of free

:08:13.:08:17.

trade, that is zero tariff on manufactures, so that we can carry

:08:18.:08:21.

on trading more or less as we do at the moment. If the EU contacts that

:08:22.:08:26.

but, all they want us to pay too much for that, that's the point at

:08:27.:08:30.

which we have to say, no, that's OK, we'll pay the tariffs. There will be

:08:31.:08:36.

a process of adjustment if we have to introduce tariffs but the

:08:37.:08:39.

adjustment will be more severe fur some of the industries on the

:08:40.:08:42.

European Union but exports so much more to our country than we do to

:08:43.:08:47.

them. And the British Exchequer will raise billions and billions of

:08:48.:08:50.

pounds from the import tariffs from the EU which we can spend on

:08:51.:08:56.

supporting the motor industry, inward investment and investment

:08:57.:08:59.

allowances, grants the science and technology and other things that

:09:00.:09:05.

make us competitive. Anna, if you go into negotiations saying we have to

:09:06.:09:09.

come to a deal at the end of two years, you've lost your hand,

:09:10.:09:13.

haven't you? I'm not saying that. I think the Prime Minister wants a

:09:14.:09:19.

deal. We all want a deal. I'm glad because I'm afraid there are lots of

:09:20.:09:23.

people on your side who don't want a deal. They want us to fall off the

:09:24.:09:27.

cliff edge and go hanging. For a start, there is no cliff edge.

:09:28.:09:32.

Unless the EU is completely insane and not going to sign anything with

:09:33.:09:37.

us, not even the most basic customs facilitation deals... Icon believe

:09:38.:09:42.

the EU is as insane as that or as incapable as that. It's the time it

:09:43.:09:47.

would take. This is really simple stuff. All our product standards...

:09:48.:09:53.

Are you saying this negotiation period is simple? A comprehensive

:09:54.:09:57.

free trade agreement is complicated. There was one huge advantage to the

:09:58.:10:02.

EU and the UK, all our regulation is currently aligned. We aren't like

:10:03.:10:06.

the EU and Canada, or the EU and China, where they've got to think

:10:07.:10:10.

about how they deal with the misalignment. We start from the same

:10:11.:10:14.

business. A car in the UK is the same as a car in the EU. It's

:10:15.:10:18.

exactly the same. We don't need to stop at the borders to prove they

:10:19.:10:25.

are cars. The problem is this idea, that it's a simple process on trade,

:10:26.:10:31.

it's not about trade... Don't misrepresent what I said. Even if we

:10:32.:10:40.

come out of the EU without any trade deal, we will still have customs

:10:41.:10:44.

facilitation arrangement, product recognition, all of these things...

:10:45.:10:48.

Do you want there to be a formal deal, or do you want the UK to walk

:10:49.:10:53.

away having another chip to bargain with? When you say another chip to

:10:54.:11:01.

bargain with, the EU is asking us to give money, they are asking us to

:11:02.:11:06.

give concessions. We are offering a blanket offer. We are saying you can

:11:07.:11:10.

have access to your biggest export market, exactly as you do now,

:11:11.:11:14.

without any costs or tariffs, if that is what you want. The choices

:11:15.:11:19.

for the EU, they've got to decide... This is madness. We don't hold the

:11:20.:11:24.

cards. Yes we do. There are 27 members left in the EU. We need them

:11:25.:11:32.

much more than they need us. I'm sorry, you've got to be honest about

:11:33.:11:35.

it. It is to everybody's mutual advantage that we have a free trade

:11:36.:11:39.

agreement and recognition of financial services, and all those

:11:40.:11:44.

things. We are in a much stronger position than them. We've got to get

:11:45.:11:50.

four deals... You haven't let me explain this thing about the four

:11:51.:11:54.

hugely complicated deals we have to do. We have to sort out European

:11:55.:12:00.

citizens, EU citizenship. That in itself is difficult. Secondly we

:12:01.:12:04.

have customs to sort out. Thirdly we have trade to sort out. Fourthly we

:12:05.:12:10.

have to do a bespoke deal on security. And we are going to do all

:12:11.:12:15.

of that in about 18 months, and some of it is simple? It's just, you're

:12:16.:12:20.

not being honest with people about what's happening. And actually, what

:12:21.:12:26.

we are really doing... I just need to say this. All of this madness,

:12:27.:12:31.

this complexity, this nightmare of detail, when actually what we are

:12:32.:12:35.

doing is we are walking away from 500 million customers. What we have

:12:36.:12:42.

at the moment, a single market which has provided decades of prosperity

:12:43.:12:48.

for our country. Which needs to be negotiated. Bernard you are saying

:12:49.:12:51.

these negotiations can carry on but would you be prepared to walk away,

:12:52.:12:55.

do you think we can walk away and not pay any money? If they ask us...

:12:56.:13:00.

Festival, Article 50 is very clear. All our obligations fall away when

:13:01.:13:04.

Article 50 reaches the end of the process. We won't have to pay a

:13:05.:13:09.

penny. If no deal is struck. And then the EU has the choice to take

:13:10.:13:14.

the UK to court. They wouldn't, because Article 50 is in the

:13:15.:13:20.

treaties of the European Union and that trumps any of the other

:13:21.:13:22.

convention or treaty rules. They replace the rules were leaving the

:13:23.:13:25.

EU with Article 50 is about is the law that would apply. The idea of

:13:26.:13:29.

the European Court of Justice would apply international law and not

:13:30.:13:32.

their own treaties, it just wouldn't happen. So you are telling people we

:13:33.:13:37.

can just walk away, we'll have no bills at all, and we walk away onto

:13:38.:13:43.

WTO rules and regulations and tariffs, and no customs deal? There

:13:44.:13:47.

would have to be a customs deal. Do you really believe the EU would be

:13:48.:13:51.

insane enough not to do a customs facilitation deal with the UK? When

:13:52.:13:56.

they do it with America, whom they don't have a trade deal with, they

:13:57.:13:59.

do it with a knob of countries they don't have a trade deal with... --

:14:00.:14:05.

with a number of countries. BMW would be happy with that

:14:06.:14:08.

arrangement. This idea that we hold all the cards... So you think they

:14:09.:14:14.

are insane? I think we are insane for not being honest with people

:14:15.:14:17.

about the complexities and the dangers to our economy. We are

:14:18.:14:23.

jumping off the cliff. Thank you for a very energetic conversation and

:14:24.:14:24.

debate. Now, if the triggering of Article 50

:14:25.:14:30.

feels like the end of the beginning, what is there to say

:14:31.:14:33.

about that beginning? It's been nine months since we voted

:14:34.:14:35.

to leave and in that time we've heard an awful lot about the UK's

:14:36.:14:38.

divorce terms - but have politicians made enough effort to set up

:14:39.:14:41.

the negotiations to embrace the opportunities

:14:42.:14:44.

that Brexit offers? Not according to leading

:14:45.:14:46.

Brexiteer Tim Montgomerie. Nine months after the historic

:14:47.:17:16.

Brexit vote some remain supporters are trying to discover why so many

:17:17.:17:19.

of their countrymen voted to leave. One of the most prominent Remain

:17:20.:17:21.

campaigners is former He's been to Ebbw Vale -

:17:22.:17:23.

a town which saw the highest proportion of voters in Wales that

:17:24.:17:28.

voted to leave the EU. It's also a town that received funds

:17:29.:17:31.

from the EU totalling ?1.8 Here's the former Deputy Prime

:17:32.:17:34.

Minister finding out why, for Ebbw Vale's citizens,

:17:35.:17:38.

divorce from the EU was so much more A town of around 30,000

:17:39.:17:41.

people in the heart Once home to the largest

:17:42.:17:50.

steelworks in Europe, Ebbw Vale today is in one

:17:51.:17:56.

of the most socially and economically deprived regions

:17:57.:17:59.

in the United Kingdom. A quarter of working age

:18:00.:18:02.

adults are on benefits. Male unemployment is more

:18:03.:18:17.

than double the national average. And more than a third

:18:18.:18:20.

of the population have no To any casual visitor,

:18:21.:18:23.

Ebbw Vale doesn't superficially look or feel like one of the most

:18:24.:18:38.

hard-hit areas of Britain. The old steelworks has

:18:39.:18:44.

recently been redeveloped at a cost of ?350 million,

:18:45.:18:47.

creating new schools and colleges, a new hospital,

:18:48.:18:50.

and state-of-the-art sports facilities, not to mention

:18:51.:18:53.

all the construction work involved in building new road and rail

:18:54.:18:57.

links into town. I've also never been to a place

:18:58.:19:05.

with so many blue EU flags, That's because the EU has

:19:06.:19:08.

funded a sizeable part A whopping ?1.8 billion has

:19:09.:19:16.

been invested by the EU Yet in the Brexit referendum,

:19:17.:19:22.

62% of people here voted to leave, So much of the investment here has

:19:23.:19:31.

come from the European Union. The college over there,

:19:32.:19:40.

the station over there, all of these buildings were invested

:19:41.:19:43.

in from funds from Funds which won't necessarily be

:19:44.:19:45.

replaced by governments So my first question is,

:19:46.:19:50.

why did people vote in large numbers against the European Union,

:19:51.:19:55.

the source of so much Monday night is bingo night

:19:56.:19:57.

at the ex-servicemen's club. That is the percentage that

:19:58.:20:10.

voted out with Brexit. My name is George Mont,

:20:11.:20:21.

and from Ebbw Vale, born and bred. I would like to put the great

:20:22.:20:30.

back in Great Britain. Because we are not governing

:20:31.:20:34.

ourselves, we are governed I voted out of Brexit

:20:35.:20:37.

for two main reasons. To stop the illegal immigrants

:20:38.:20:47.

coming in and to get our My name is Maureen Windmill

:20:48.:20:49.

from Ebbw Vale, South Wales. One of the main reasons being any

:20:50.:20:58.

monies that we've received from Europe to be spent on our town

:20:59.:21:05.

was spent on the wrong things. Fairly unanimous views

:21:06.:21:13.

from the bingo crowd, then. The next morning I met up

:21:14.:21:20.

with the leader of the Ebbw Vale He agreed to show me some examples

:21:21.:21:24.

of what people here feel has We started on the new ?2.5 million

:21:25.:21:29.

lift that takes you up the side Fantastic amount of money,

:21:30.:21:38.

over half a billion. The dragon is European

:21:39.:21:42.

funded, is it? What do you think of all the money

:21:43.:21:46.

being spent on the town centre here, the high streets, this dragon,

:21:47.:21:52.

and so on? You cannot complain about it in one

:21:53.:21:54.

sense, it is pretty. If you have someone dying,

:21:55.:21:58.

you do not give them cosmetic surgery to keep them alive,

:21:59.:22:04.

that is not enough. It does not need pretty bollards

:22:05.:22:07.

and wonderful dragons and a clock This specific criticism about how EU

:22:08.:22:15.

money is being spent is accompanied by a wider yearning for a return

:22:16.:22:27.

to the certainties of the town's industrial past when the steelworks

:22:28.:22:30.

provided full employment 600,000 tonnes of rolled steel used

:22:31.:22:32.

to be produced here annually. The giant furnaces used

:22:33.:22:42.

to light up the night sky. Bringing prosperity

:22:43.:22:45.

and pride to the town. But 15 years ago the steelworks

:22:46.:22:51.

closed down and the site was demolished, ending over 200

:22:52.:22:54.

years of iron and steel production. Nothing big enough has been able

:22:55.:23:01.

to replace all the lost jobs and the industrial skills

:23:02.:23:04.

of the past. I was the last training master

:23:05.:23:09.

in Ebbw Vale before it closed. And so when we talk apprenticeships,

:23:10.:23:12.

when we had a steelworks with City and Guilds London registered

:23:13.:23:19.

apprenticeships, four-year, five-year apprenticeships,

:23:20.:23:21.

we had proper training. This place we are sat in today,

:23:22.:23:25.

the Scientific Institution, taught physics, chemistry,

:23:26.:23:29.

woodwork, metalwork, electrical, If we could have European

:23:30.:23:33.

money to reinvent that... because we are told

:23:34.:23:45.

we haven't got the skills, we need people to come

:23:46.:23:47.

in from Eastern Europe, or wherever, then I think people

:23:48.:23:50.

would have said, hang on. So the money was used to provide,

:23:51.:23:52.

we didn't see that, Those same people, those who have

:23:53.:23:55.

lived here all their lives, maybe worked in the steelworks

:23:56.:23:59.

when it was still open here, they feel the EU funding that's been

:24:00.:24:01.

invested into the local community to help, hasn't really made

:24:02.:24:04.

the difference that they want. It has created shiny

:24:05.:24:06.

buildings like this, it's been used to fund street art,

:24:07.:24:09.

it's used to make cosmetic changes, but not to really

:24:10.:24:12.

help people find work. However, when you get chatting

:24:13.:24:18.

to people, many say their number one reason for voting to leave the EU

:24:19.:24:21.

wasn't jobs or a lack of heavy It's lunchtime in Morgan's Pub

:24:22.:24:25.

in the town centre. It's part of an arcade refurbished

:24:26.:24:34.

with, you guessed it, EU money. Only around 2% of the population in

:24:35.:24:40.

Ebbw Vale are actually foreign-born. Even so, views on

:24:41.:24:44.

immigration run strong. That was the biggest

:24:45.:24:49.

worry, why I voted out. I know you can't stop immigration,

:24:50.:24:56.

hospitals need the nurses But then, all the others

:24:57.:25:00.

that have come here, I know I shouldn't be prejudiced,

:25:01.:25:07.

but I just want our country, I'd like it to be back,

:25:08.:25:13.

I know it never will be, Personally, for me,

:25:14.:25:16.

it's not a big deal. But I can understand

:25:17.:25:20.

where they're coming from, They are being taken,

:25:21.:25:25.

wages are being undermined. I understand that,

:25:26.:25:31.

I totally understand that. I think they've got

:25:32.:25:34.

to vet people coming in, If you went to America,

:25:35.:25:37.

if you went to Canada, if you went to Australia,

:25:38.:25:41.

you'd have to have the And I think that's

:25:42.:25:44.

what they need here. Immigration was obviously

:25:45.:25:49.

a hugely important factor for so many of those

:25:50.:25:56.

who voted for Brexit. But, given how low immigration

:25:57.:25:59.

is locally, it isn't clear what will need to change

:26:00.:26:02.

in Ebbw Vale itself And is immigration such a big

:26:03.:26:05.

concern for younger generations? A group of students

:26:06.:26:14.

at the new part-EU-funded sixth form college allowed me

:26:15.:26:16.

to interrupt their If you had voted, would immigration

:26:17.:26:17.

have been a really big deal for you? It's not that immigration

:26:18.:26:24.

affects our area, it's It's a feeling, it's an emotion,

:26:25.:26:29.

it's a thing that many people, There's no immigration here,

:26:30.:26:37.

it's the fear of it. You've got, like, a few people

:26:38.:26:46.

from Poland, Turkey, Romania. But I feel like if they've got

:26:47.:26:51.

better qualifications than some of the people who live here,

:26:52.:26:54.

they should have the jobs, because it's all about

:26:55.:26:57.

the best qualified. I feel like we should

:26:58.:27:00.

all be treated equally. A lot of this immigration

:27:01.:27:03.

that is coming in now has been witnessed by an older generation,

:27:04.:27:06.

whereas my generation, I have gone through school with people

:27:07.:27:09.

from different backgrounds. Because I've grown up with them,

:27:10.:27:12.

I don't have that same fear of immigration,

:27:13.:27:15.

because I know they Because other people, like,

:27:16.:27:16.

the older generation didn't experience that as much,

:27:17.:27:20.

they have that bigger fear of it, Walking around this splendid ?35

:27:21.:27:24.

million building, it's clear that, despite the negative perceptions

:27:25.:27:36.

amongst some older voters about how EU money is spent,

:27:37.:27:40.

it has helped younger students to gain both academic

:27:41.:27:43.

and vocational skills. The young and the old,

:27:44.:27:47.

here in Ebbw Vale, appear to perceive the same

:27:48.:27:50.

reality very differently. And this generational difference

:27:51.:27:55.

could increase further if Brexit doesn't bring the benefits people

:27:56.:27:57.

were told to expect New jobs, new industry, more money

:27:58.:28:00.

for the NHS, less immigration. If people feel let down,

:28:01.:28:07.

the political consequences They will go to the extremes,

:28:08.:28:09.

most definitely. Especially the Brexiteers,

:28:10.:28:18.

because they are most likely the poorer and least well off and,

:28:19.:28:21.

I'd say, in some cases abandoned I think centre ground

:28:22.:28:24.

politics is not as engaging. If you're in a well-off area,

:28:25.:28:36.

you're going to feel frustrated, and I think it's easier to relate

:28:37.:28:39.

to people who are on the far You can see it in the Netherlands,

:28:40.:28:42.

France and Greece right now, all the extreme parties

:28:43.:28:49.

are incredibly popular over there. And it's worrying,

:28:50.:28:52.

because the normal parties like the Conservatives,

:28:53.:28:56.

Lib Dems and Labour need to catch onto this and capitalise, and say,

:28:57.:29:00.

well, we support but let's not go So, having spent some

:29:01.:29:04.

time here in Ebbw Vale, I'm much clearer in my own mind

:29:05.:29:19.

about why people voted for Brexit in large numbers,

:29:20.:29:22.

particularly older voters. Because, how much money was spent

:29:23.:29:23.

by the European Union on this shiny building or that project,

:29:24.:29:27.

all of that paled into significance to the feeling, the

:29:28.:29:30.

longing for a return When the steelworks were open,

:29:31.:29:32.

when everyone had jobs, when people had money

:29:33.:29:36.

in their pockets. And when people had an opportunity

:29:37.:29:37.

to rattle the cage and say, we want that back, it wasn't so much

:29:38.:29:40.

that they were left behind, it was their feeling

:29:41.:29:43.

about what they had left behind. But the past is not going to return,

:29:44.:29:49.

and it's difficult not to feel a sense of foreboding that,

:29:50.:29:52.

should Brexit fail to meet people's hopes, dissatisfaction

:29:53.:29:55.

could turn into real rage. And, as we're seeing

:29:56.:30:02.

elsewhere in the world, that can quickly be seized

:30:03.:30:04.

upon by political movements offering ever more divisive and angry

:30:05.:30:06.

visions of the future. Of the many uncertainties

:30:07.:30:23.

surrounding Brexit, there is of course the issue

:30:24.:30:28.

of what the EU will look In under four weeks,

:30:29.:30:30.

France goes to the polls. Were Marine Le Pen's Front National

:30:31.:30:34.

to win, well, its future in the bloc would be under scrutiny,

:30:35.:30:37.

as Le Pen has promised a referendum That's undeniably the intention of

:30:38.:30:56.

the EU. The EU wants the divorce to be as painful as possible so they

:30:57.:31:00.

can feel other nations of Europe want to leave this political

:31:01.:31:07.

structure. They don't want a domino effect. But Mel didn't work, Project

:31:08.:31:12.

fear didn't work either. So they have to try and make the separation

:31:13.:31:17.

as painful as possible -- blackmail didn't work. Will they succeed? I

:31:18.:31:22.

so. Is it possible for Britain to get a good deal after Brexit from

:31:23.:31:28.

the EU as it stands? Yes, I think so. It will be led by the defence of

:31:29.:31:33.

its own best interests and when to be constrained by the ideology of

:31:34.:31:40.

the EU, which today prevents from protecting themselves from

:31:41.:31:42.

uncontrolled globalisation. You borrowed money from a Russian bank.

:31:43.:31:49.

Several years ago with borrowed money from a Czech Russian bank but

:31:50.:31:51.

that's because they agreed to lend us money. If it had been a British

:31:52.:31:56.

bank, we would have borrowed from a British bank. But it was a Russian

:31:57.:32:02.

bank? Yes, I don't owe the bank anything other than to pay it back.

:32:03.:32:08.

I'd have no obligations towards it, I'm not reliant on anyone. You don't

:32:09.:32:14.

regret it? So I'm prevented from borrowing from a French bank and

:32:15.:32:17.

then approached for borrowing from a foreign bank. What would people have

:32:18.:32:22.

said it it had been an American bank, or an African bank? I think

:32:23.:32:26.

it's more problematic when candidates seek donations in foreign

:32:27.:32:29.

countries. You know what Napoleon used to say, the hand that gives is

:32:30.:32:33.

always above the hand that receives. You know President Putin quite well,

:32:34.:32:39.

what do you think of him? I've met him once. That was last week. Yes, I

:32:40.:32:50.

had an opportunity to have a long conversation with him on the

:32:51.:32:52.

situation in the world. Particularly on a key topic which is the fight

:32:53.:32:55.

against Islamist terrorism. Do you think the West has misunderstood

:32:56.:33:03.

Putin? I think the previous American administration in effect put the

:33:04.:33:06.

Berlin Wall on wheels and pushed it back to Russia's borders. That was

:33:07.:33:18.

in the interest of the US. Was it in the interest of the EU? The answer

:33:19.:33:22.

is no. We have no reason to enter a new Cold War with Russia, absolutely

:33:23.:33:31.

none. But Russia's sphere of influence is increasing, including

:33:32.:33:40.

the Baltic states. We struck deals with Russia after World War II, and

:33:41.:33:44.

those deals were reneges on. In recent years the US wouldn't stop

:33:45.:33:48.

militarising countries on Russia's border with Nato. So it was felt by

:33:49.:34:00.

Russia as a form of hostility. I'm not a supporter of mounting

:34:01.:34:04.

conflict, hostility, of warmongering. These provocations

:34:05.:34:14.

that naturally cause a reaction. Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere

:34:15.:34:19.

of influence, it's a fact. Just like Canada is part of America's sphere

:34:20.:34:24.

of influence. But it is simpler than that. If the Russian military were

:34:25.:34:29.

to make an incursion into the Baltic states or into Ukraine, would France

:34:30.:34:32.

come to the protection of the Baltic states? You want war at all costs?

:34:33.:34:40.

What is your problem? You want to go to war, you like war? You like war?

:34:41.:34:47.

You want conflict? You want us to start world War three? At the moment

:34:48.:34:50.

no one wants to go to war with anyone. I'm happy to go into the

:34:51.:34:54.

hypotheses but no one is going to war with anyone. No one wants to go

:34:55.:35:00.

to war with anyone else. There was a territorial conflict with Ukraine,

:35:01.:35:03.

these things happen. Now it has to be resolved diplomatically and I

:35:04.:35:10.

think France's voice has wait, as long as France is France. Not a

:35:11.:35:13.

region of the EU. If you are trying to say Russia is a military danger

:35:14.:35:16.

to European countries I think you are mistaken in your analysis. What

:35:17.:35:23.

should be France's commitment towards Nato? I think France should

:35:24.:35:31.

leave Nato Allied command. I agree with Donald Trump when he says Nato

:35:32.:35:36.

is obsolete. Because Nato was created to fight the USSR. Today

:35:37.:35:41.

there is no USSR. I know it's uncomfortable for some but there is

:35:42.:35:51.

no more USSR. There is a country that's Russia, which doesn't deserve

:35:52.:36:04.

to be treated with prejudice. It hasn't led any campaigns against

:36:05.:36:07.

European countries, or against the US. Has Putin done more good or more

:36:08.:36:15.

harm to the world? First we need to ask whether he did more harm than

:36:16.:36:21.

good to Russia. Russia is going broadly in the right direction, it

:36:22.:36:25.

has improved its economy, although it is still fragile. What I noticed

:36:26.:36:34.

is that Putin's government must be pretty popular with Russians, given

:36:35.:36:37.

that it is constantly being re-elected. What more can I say? Has

:36:38.:36:48.

he done more good? When he intervened in Syria against IS, yes.

:36:49.:36:57.

Because if Syria had fallen into the hands of IS, like Libya has fallen

:36:58.:37:01.

into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, nothing could

:37:02.:37:08.

prevent the growth of IS. The explosion of fundamentalist Islam,

:37:09.:37:18.

and we are just next door, Europe. So yes, I think his intervention in

:37:19.:37:24.

Syria is a positive to the world. You haven't met with Mr Trump? No.

:37:25.:37:38.

Nor with Theresa May? With Angela Merkel? Know but why should I go and

:37:39.:37:42.

see Mrs Merkel or Theresa May? We may have some things to talk about

:37:43.:37:47.

with Theresa May but with Mrs Merkel things are very clear. We are in

:37:48.:37:51.

total opposition, I and the anti-Merkel. I am opposed to her

:37:52.:37:55.

economic policy, monetary policy. I'm opposed to migrant policy. Very

:37:56.:38:01.

clearly we are in total opposition. Either way, that doesn't mean that

:38:02.:38:05.

if I'm elected president I won't talk to Mrs Merkel and defend France

:38:06.:38:11.

's interests. But all these heads of state, you haven't met with them.

:38:12.:38:15.

Despite everything you have tried to do to change the image of your

:38:16.:38:22.

party, the truth is there is still a toxicity that surrounds it. Don't

:38:23.:38:32.

you think that Mrs Merkel is toxic for Europe? She let 1.5 million

:38:33.:38:37.

migrants in, isn't that toxic? She imposes austerity to all the nations

:38:38.:38:41.

of Europe, isn't that toxic? She's the one who is toxic. Either way,

:38:42.:38:46.

she's in creasing the isolated because the policies I represent the

:38:47.:38:51.

policies represented by Mr Trump. It's represented by Mr Putin. The

:38:52.:38:54.

British people have just made it clear they want to go in that

:38:55.:39:00.

direction. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is one of the new parties

:39:01.:39:03.

but greatly increased his numbers of seats. Things are moving in Europe

:39:04.:39:07.

in the direction of the ideas and policies I represent. And if you win

:39:08.:39:15.

in May, does that spelt the beginning of the end of the EU? But

:39:16.:39:21.

the EU is almost already over. Rather than waiting for its chaotic

:39:22.:39:26.

collapse, I suggest we organise its transformation into a Europe of

:39:27.:39:29.

Nations, while respecting the wishes of the European peoples. Have you

:39:30.:39:37.

noticed that all the referendums on the subject of the EU that have been

:39:38.:39:40.

organised in the past 15 years have been lost by the EU? All of them,

:39:41.:39:46.

without exception. Have you seen that Poland is saying no, I then

:39:47.:39:50.

want to join the euro. When a few years ago they were begging to join.

:39:51.:39:54.

It's over, the EU is shining the light of a dead star. Thank you.

:39:55.:40:02.

Emily speaking to the French presidential candidate Marine Le

:40:03.:40:05.

Pen. We've got some French election news, the wife of the presidential

:40:06.:40:10.

candidate Francois Fillon has been placed under formal investigation.

:40:11.:40:14.

This is part of the continuing fake jobs in quarry. She spent the day

:40:15.:40:19.

being questioned by magistrates. Her husband was placed under formal

:40:20.:40:22.

investigation earlier this month, he is accused of paying hundreds of

:40:23.:40:25.

thousands of euros to members of his family for work they didn't do.

:40:26.:40:30.

Now the papers and let's start with the Daily Telegraph. There is a

:40:31.:40:36.

unifying theme across the front pages you won't be surprised to know

:40:37.:40:39.

on the day that Article 50 is being triggered. Mrs May tells Britons to

:40:40.:40:49.

put behind differences as she dispatches the Article 50 letter.

:40:50.:40:54.

The Times has a picture of her signing the Article 50 letter in the

:40:55.:40:57.

Cabinet room yesterday under the gaze of Robert Walpole. Theresa May

:40:58.:41:03.

has insisted the country will remain an ally of the EU. The Guardian, a

:41:04.:41:10.

jigsaw puzzle over a map of Europe. Today Britain steps into the

:41:11.:41:15.

unknown, those words where the UK would have been. Saying Theresa May

:41:16.:41:19.

is beginning a two-year process that will see the UK leave the EU sever a

:41:20.:41:24.

political relationship that has lasted 44 years. The Sun is beaming

:41:25.:41:32.

a message to our neighbours. The daily Mirror says we are one great

:41:33.:41:35.

union of people and nations with a proud history and a bright future.

:41:36.:41:37.

Quoting Theresa May. That's all we've got

:41:38.:41:41.

time for this evening. But we couldn't let you go

:41:42.:41:42.

without showing you this stunning, van Gogh-esque image of Jupiter's

:41:43.:41:45.

surface, sent 588 million kilometres

:41:46.:41:48.

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