28/03/2017 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Naga Munchetty.

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Could the next shock to the global liberal establishment be Le Pen?


We speak to the great hope of populism in France.


Also tonight, Theresa May will formally begins the Brexit


And we send the High Priest of Remainism to understand why


Ebbw Vale in South Wales voted so emphatically for Brexit.


So much of the investment here has come from the European Union. The


college, the station, all of these buildings were invested in from


funds from the EU. Funds which won't necessarily be replaced by


governments in London and Cardiff. My first question is why did people


vote in large numbers against the European Union, the source of so


much investment in this community? "One more sleep", as one Leave


supporting blog tweeted today. By this time tomorrow,


the Prime Minister will have triggered Article 50 and Britain's


departure from the European Union As we will hear over the course


of tonight's programme, In a moment, Emily gets


Marine Le Pen's take on Brexit and, But first I'm joined


by our political editor Nick Watt in the studio,


and by our Diplomatic Editor Nick, what is exactly going to


happen tomorrow? It will have the feel of a budget day. Theresa May


will brief colleagues can only meeting of the Cabinet, then she


will do her normal Prime Minister's Questions and that will be followed


by her statement on the Article 50 letter. At around the time she


stands up in the Commons, the UK ambassador to the EU Sir Tim Barrow


will hand the real copy of the letter to the European Council


president Donald Tusk in Brussels, and Donald Tusk is then expected to


tweet he has received it. That will mark the formal triggering of


Article 50. What we really want to know is what is in the letter? I'm


told the tone will be friendly, it will essentially set out the


framework of her Lancaster house speech in January. What that said is


a close trading relationship but no membership of the European single


market. What I'm told is going to be really interesting is what isn't in


the letter. It will not get into generalities, you will not see a sum


of money on what the UK is prepared or not prepared to pay for the exit


bill and I'm told there will not be any date on a cut-off date for when


the rights of EU citizens in the UK will stop. The guiding thought is do


not repeat the mistake of David Cameron, who put too much detail in


his letter for his EU negotiations, and gave the impression that he was


scared of walking away. Keep your cards close. OK. Mark, what has been


the reaction in Europe today? What we can expect tomorrow is, firstly,


expressions of regret that Britain is going ahead with this. Then


pretty swiftly after that, some fundamental declarations of


principle. On the financial issue, I think you can expect a pretty hard


line. The EU's legal advice is that Britain is liable for budget


contributions, one person told me tonight at least 45 billion euros


between now and 2020. And they simply will say they won't budge. By


about one month's time, the formal negotiating guidelines will have


been given to the negotiator and I think things will go quiet for a


while. For a whole load of reasons, including in this country and


others. Then I think we will see things playing into next year with


particularly the German strategy and that of the president of the


European Council Donald Tusk, I think will be to take a tough line


and offer Britain as many opportunities to change its mind as


possible, right up to that vote on the terms of the deal as it is being


proposed that will happen in Parliament towards the end of the


process. Nick, we can't forget today there has been another vote in


Scotland to request another independence referendum. And they've


predictable response from the UK Government saying now isn't the time


to have that. On Thursday David Davis will say to the Scottish


Government and the other devolved administrations, the UK Government


doesn't want to hoard power. He will say he is prepared to hand back


some, but not all powers on fisheries and agriculture, to those


devolved administrations. David Davis will do that when he sets out


the next stage after the triggering of Article 50, the Great Repeal


Bill. It annuls the Act of Parliament that took us into the EEC


and it secondly brings back into UK law all the EU law. Really


interesting on the next stage after that, what of those EU laws that


will be in UK law, what they should appeal. He will say that isn't this


Parliament, that is that the next Parliament, put it in the Tory


manifesto. Reaction will be very interesting. Thank you.


Once the ceremonies of tomorrow's triggering are done with, there is


the possibility of no deal at all. We are joined by Anna Seabury and


Bernard Jenkin. Good evening. -- Anna Soubry. I'm an ex-Remainer. We


are leaving the EU so I don't know what you would call me. Are you a


happy lever? Of course I'm not. I think our country has lost the plot


and an extremely worried about our future. But we've got this vote,


we've got to deliver it, the Prime Minister has been remarkably


courageous in stepping up accepting this button which she would clearly


not have chosen, and she's now got to deliver four bespoke deals in


under two years. Almost an impossible task. You don't think she


can do it? I think she's got to be brave to say if we need more time,


if we need a transition period she's got to do that. Most of all, she's


got to resist the calls from dear Bernard who will urge her with his


merry band who have been wreaking havoc in my party for decades, to


avoid a hard Brexit which nobody in my constituency, nor I believe


anywhere else in the country, voted for. Is it a problem if there is no


deal? You said it's almost impossible for her... Let it just


find out from Bernard, do you think it is a disaster if there isn't a


deal? It depends what you mean by deal. I agree the idea we are going


to finish up with a comprehensive trade agreement within two years is


extremely unlikely, not least because the EU would find it very


difficult to agree such a deal. It takes the EU a very long time to


agree these things. So I think Anna is right that we finish up with some


kind of transitional arrangement. What we should hope for is that we


will sign sensible arrangements have customs facilitation and memoranda


of understanding and that sort of thing. Which the EU has with every


other country trades within the world, whether or not it's got a


trade deal. Hopefully we'll get the EU to accept our offer of free


trade, that is zero tariff on manufactures, so that we can carry


on trading more or less as we do at the moment. If the EU contacts that


but, all they want us to pay too much for that, that's the point at


which we have to say, no, that's OK, we'll pay the tariffs. There will be


a process of adjustment if we have to introduce tariffs but the


adjustment will be more severe fur some of the industries on the


European Union but exports so much more to our country than we do to


them. And the British Exchequer will raise billions and billions of


pounds from the import tariffs from the EU which we can spend on


supporting the motor industry, inward investment and investment


allowances, grants the science and technology and other things that


make us competitive. Anna, if you go into negotiations saying we have to


come to a deal at the end of two years, you've lost your hand,


haven't you? I'm not saying that. I think the Prime Minister wants a


deal. We all want a deal. I'm glad because I'm afraid there are lots of


people on your side who don't want a deal. They want us to fall off the


cliff edge and go hanging. For a start, there is no cliff edge.


Unless the EU is completely insane and not going to sign anything with


us, not even the most basic customs facilitation deals... Icon believe


the EU is as insane as that or as incapable as that. It's the time it


would take. This is really simple stuff. All our product standards...


Are you saying this negotiation period is simple? A comprehensive


free trade agreement is complicated. There was one huge advantage to the


EU and the UK, all our regulation is currently aligned. We aren't like


the EU and Canada, or the EU and China, where they've got to think


about how they deal with the misalignment. We start from the same


business. A car in the UK is the same as a car in the EU. It's


exactly the same. We don't need to stop at the borders to prove they


are cars. The problem is this idea, that it's a simple process on trade,


it's not about trade... Don't misrepresent what I said. Even if we


come out of the EU without any trade deal, we will still have customs


facilitation arrangement, product recognition, all of these things...


Do you want there to be a formal deal, or do you want the UK to walk


away having another chip to bargain with? When you say another chip to


bargain with, the EU is asking us to give money, they are asking us to


give concessions. We are offering a blanket offer. We are saying you can


have access to your biggest export market, exactly as you do now,


without any costs or tariffs, if that is what you want. The choices


for the EU, they've got to decide... This is madness. We don't hold the


cards. Yes we do. There are 27 members left in the EU. We need them


much more than they need us. I'm sorry, you've got to be honest about


it. It is to everybody's mutual advantage that we have a free trade


agreement and recognition of financial services, and all those


things. We are in a much stronger position than them. We've got to get


four deals... You haven't let me explain this thing about the four


hugely complicated deals we have to do. We have to sort out European


citizens, EU citizenship. That in itself is difficult. Secondly we


have customs to sort out. Thirdly we have trade to sort out. Fourthly we


have to do a bespoke deal on security. And we are going to do all


of that in about 18 months, and some of it is simple? It's just, you're


not being honest with people about what's happening. And actually, what


we are really doing... I just need to say this. All of this madness,


this complexity, this nightmare of detail, when actually what we are


doing is we are walking away from 500 million customers. What we have


at the moment, a single market which has provided decades of prosperity


for our country. Which needs to be negotiated. Bernard you are saying


these negotiations can carry on but would you be prepared to walk away,


do you think we can walk away and not pay any money? If they ask us...


Festival, Article 50 is very clear. All our obligations fall away when


Article 50 reaches the end of the process. We won't have to pay a


penny. If no deal is struck. And then the EU has the choice to take


the UK to court. They wouldn't, because Article 50 is in the


treaties of the European Union and that trumps any of the other


convention or treaty rules. They replace the rules were leaving the


EU with Article 50 is about is the law that would apply. The idea of


the European Court of Justice would apply international law and not


their own treaties, it just wouldn't happen. So you are telling people we


can just walk away, we'll have no bills at all, and we walk away onto


WTO rules and regulations and tariffs, and no customs deal? There


would have to be a customs deal. Do you really believe the EU would be


insane enough not to do a customs facilitation deal with the UK? When


they do it with America, whom they don't have a trade deal with, they


do it with a knob of countries they don't have a trade deal with... --


with a number of countries. BMW would be happy with that


arrangement. This idea that we hold all the cards... So you think they


are insane? I think we are insane for not being honest with people


about the complexities and the dangers to our economy. We are


jumping off the cliff. Thank you for a very energetic conversation and


debate. Now, if the triggering of Article 50


feels like the end of the beginning, what is there to say


about that beginning? It's been nine months since we voted


to leave and in that time we've heard an awful lot about the UK's


divorce terms - but have politicians made enough effort to set up


the negotiations to embrace the opportunities


that Brexit offers? Not according to leading


Brexiteer Tim Montgomerie. Nine months after the historic


Brexit vote some remain supporters are trying to discover why so many


of their countrymen voted to leave. One of the most prominent Remain


campaigners is former He's been to Ebbw Vale -


a town which saw the highest proportion of voters in Wales that


voted to leave the EU. It's also a town that received funds


from the EU totalling ?1.8 Here's the former Deputy Prime


Minister finding out why, for Ebbw Vale's citizens,


divorce from the EU was so much more A town of around 30,000


people in the heart Once home to the largest


steelworks in Europe, Ebbw Vale today is in one


of the most socially and economically deprived regions


in the United Kingdom. A quarter of working age


adults are on benefits. Male unemployment is more


than double the national average. And more than a third


of the population have no To any casual visitor,


Ebbw Vale doesn't superficially look or feel like one of the most


hard-hit areas of Britain. The old steelworks has


recently been redeveloped at a cost of ?350 million,


creating new schools and colleges, a new hospital,


and state-of-the-art sports facilities, not to mention


all the construction work involved in building new road and rail


links into town. I've also never been to a place


with so many blue EU flags, That's because the EU has


funded a sizeable part A whopping ?1.8 billion has


been invested by the EU Yet in the Brexit referendum,


62% of people here voted to leave, So much of the investment here has


come from the European Union. The college over there,


the station over there, all of these buildings were invested


in from funds from Funds which won't necessarily be


replaced by governments So my first question is,


why did people vote in large numbers against the European Union,


the source of so much Monday night is bingo night


at the ex-servicemen's club. That is the percentage that


voted out with Brexit. My name is George Mont,


and from Ebbw Vale, born and bred. I would like to put the great


back in Great Britain. Because we are not governing


ourselves, we are governed I voted out of Brexit


for two main reasons. To stop the illegal immigrants


coming in and to get our My name is Maureen Windmill


from Ebbw Vale, South Wales. One of the main reasons being any


monies that we've received from Europe to be spent on our town


was spent on the wrong things. Fairly unanimous views


from the bingo crowd, then. The next morning I met up


with the leader of the Ebbw Vale He agreed to show me some examples


of what people here feel has We started on the new ?2.5 million


lift that takes you up the side Fantastic amount of money,


over half a billion. The dragon is European


funded, is it? What do you think of all the money


being spent on the town centre here, the high streets, this dragon,


and so on? You cannot complain about it in one


sense, it is pretty. If you have someone dying,


you do not give them cosmetic surgery to keep them alive,


that is not enough. It does not need pretty bollards


and wonderful dragons and a clock This specific criticism about how EU


money is being spent is accompanied by a wider yearning for a return


to the certainties of the town's industrial past when the steelworks


provided full employment 600,000 tonnes of rolled steel used


to be produced here annually. The giant furnaces used


to light up the night sky. Bringing prosperity


and pride to the town. But 15 years ago the steelworks


closed down and the site was demolished, ending over 200


years of iron and steel production. Nothing big enough has been able


to replace all the lost jobs and the industrial skills


of the past. I was the last training master


in Ebbw Vale before it closed. And so when we talk apprenticeships,


when we had a steelworks with City and Guilds London registered


apprenticeships, four-year, five-year apprenticeships,


we had proper training. This place we are sat in today,


the Scientific Institution, taught physics, chemistry,


woodwork, metalwork, electrical, If we could have European


money to reinvent that... because we are told


we haven't got the skills, we need people to come


in from Eastern Europe, or wherever, then I think people


would have said, hang on. So the money was used to provide,


we didn't see that, Those same people, those who have


lived here all their lives, maybe worked in the steelworks


when it was still open here, they feel the EU funding that's been


invested into the local community to help, hasn't really made


the difference that they want. It has created shiny


buildings like this, it's been used to fund street art,


it's used to make cosmetic changes, but not to really


help people find work. However, when you get chatting


to people, many say their number one reason for voting to leave the EU


wasn't jobs or a lack of heavy It's lunchtime in Morgan's Pub


in the town centre. It's part of an arcade refurbished


with, you guessed it, EU money. Only around 2% of the population in


Ebbw Vale are actually foreign-born. Even so, views on


immigration run strong. That was the biggest


worry, why I voted out. I know you can't stop immigration,


hospitals need the nurses But then, all the others


that have come here, I know I shouldn't be prejudiced,


but I just want our country, I'd like it to be back,


I know it never will be, Personally, for me,


it's not a big deal. But I can understand


where they're coming from, They are being taken,


wages are being undermined. I understand that,


I totally understand that. I think they've got


to vet people coming in, If you went to America,


if you went to Canada, if you went to Australia,


you'd have to have the And I think that's


what they need here. Immigration was obviously


a hugely important factor for so many of those


who voted for Brexit. But, given how low immigration


is locally, it isn't clear what will need to change


in Ebbw Vale itself And is immigration such a big


concern for younger generations? A group of students


at the new part-EU-funded sixth form college allowed me


to interrupt their If you had voted, would immigration


have been a really big deal for you? It's not that immigration


affects our area, it's It's a feeling, it's an emotion,


it's a thing that many people, There's no immigration here,


it's the fear of it. You've got, like, a few people


from Poland, Turkey, Romania. But I feel like if they've got


better qualifications than some of the people who live here,


they should have the jobs, because it's all about


the best qualified. I feel like we should


all be treated equally. A lot of this immigration


that is coming in now has been witnessed by an older generation,


whereas my generation, I have gone through school with people


from different backgrounds. Because I've grown up with them,


I don't have that same fear of immigration,


because I know they Because other people, like,


the older generation didn't experience that as much,


they have that bigger fear of it, Walking around this splendid ?35


million building, it's clear that, despite the negative perceptions


amongst some older voters about how EU money is spent,


it has helped younger students to gain both academic


and vocational skills. The young and the old,


here in Ebbw Vale, appear to perceive the same


reality very differently. And this generational difference


could increase further if Brexit doesn't bring the benefits people


were told to expect New jobs, new industry, more money


for the NHS, less immigration. If people feel let down,


the political consequences They will go to the extremes,


most definitely. Especially the Brexiteers,


because they are most likely the poorer and least well off and,


I'd say, in some cases abandoned I think centre ground


politics is not as engaging. If you're in a well-off area,


you're going to feel frustrated, and I think it's easier to relate


to people who are on the far You can see it in the Netherlands,


France and Greece right now, all the extreme parties


are incredibly popular over there. And it's worrying,


because the normal parties like the Conservatives,


Lib Dems and Labour need to catch onto this and capitalise, and say,


well, we support but let's not go So, having spent some


time here in Ebbw Vale, I'm much clearer in my own mind


about why people voted for Brexit in large numbers,


particularly older voters. Because, how much money was spent


by the European Union on this shiny building or that project,


all of that paled into significance to the feeling, the


longing for a return When the steelworks were open,


when everyone had jobs, when people had money


in their pockets. And when people had an opportunity


to rattle the cage and say, we want that back, it wasn't so much


that they were left behind, it was their feeling


about what they had left behind. But the past is not going to return,


and it's difficult not to feel a sense of foreboding that,


should Brexit fail to meet people's hopes, dissatisfaction


could turn into real rage. And, as we're seeing


elsewhere in the world, that can quickly be seized


upon by political movements offering ever more divisive and angry


visions of the future. Of the many uncertainties


surrounding Brexit, there is of course the issue


of what the EU will look In under four weeks,


France goes to the polls. Were Marine Le Pen's Front National


to win, well, its future in the bloc would be under scrutiny,


as Le Pen has promised a referendum That's undeniably the intention of


the EU. The EU wants the divorce to be as painful as possible so they


can feel other nations of Europe want to leave this political


structure. They don't want a domino effect. But Mel didn't work, Project


fear didn't work either. So they have to try and make the separation


as painful as possible -- blackmail didn't work. Will they succeed? I


so. Is it possible for Britain to get a good deal after Brexit from


the EU as it stands? Yes, I think so. It will be led by the defence of


its own best interests and when to be constrained by the ideology of


the EU, which today prevents from protecting themselves from


uncontrolled globalisation. You borrowed money from a Russian bank.


Several years ago with borrowed money from a Czech Russian bank but


that's because they agreed to lend us money. If it had been a British


bank, we would have borrowed from a British bank. But it was a Russian


bank? Yes, I don't owe the bank anything other than to pay it back.


I'd have no obligations towards it, I'm not reliant on anyone. You don't


regret it? So I'm prevented from borrowing from a French bank and


then approached for borrowing from a foreign bank. What would people have


said it it had been an American bank, or an African bank? I think


it's more problematic when candidates seek donations in foreign


countries. You know what Napoleon used to say, the hand that gives is


always above the hand that receives. You know President Putin quite well,


what do you think of him? I've met him once. That was last week. Yes, I


had an opportunity to have a long conversation with him on the


situation in the world. Particularly on a key topic which is the fight


against Islamist terrorism. Do you think the West has misunderstood


Putin? I think the previous American administration in effect put the


Berlin Wall on wheels and pushed it back to Russia's borders. That was


in the interest of the US. Was it in the interest of the EU? The answer


is no. We have no reason to enter a new Cold War with Russia, absolutely


none. But Russia's sphere of influence is increasing, including


the Baltic states. We struck deals with Russia after World War II, and


those deals were reneges on. In recent years the US wouldn't stop


militarising countries on Russia's border with Nato. So it was felt by


Russia as a form of hostility. I'm not a supporter of mounting


conflict, hostility, of warmongering. These provocations


that naturally cause a reaction. Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere


of influence, it's a fact. Just like Canada is part of America's sphere


of influence. But it is simpler than that. If the Russian military were


to make an incursion into the Baltic states or into Ukraine, would France


come to the protection of the Baltic states? You want war at all costs?


What is your problem? You want to go to war, you like war? You like war?


You want conflict? You want us to start world War three? At the moment


no one wants to go to war with anyone. I'm happy to go into the


hypotheses but no one is going to war with anyone. No one wants to go


to war with anyone else. There was a territorial conflict with Ukraine,


these things happen. Now it has to be resolved diplomatically and I


think France's voice has wait, as long as France is France. Not a


region of the EU. If you are trying to say Russia is a military danger


to European countries I think you are mistaken in your analysis. What


should be France's commitment towards Nato? I think France should


leave Nato Allied command. I agree with Donald Trump when he says Nato


is obsolete. Because Nato was created to fight the USSR. Today


there is no USSR. I know it's uncomfortable for some but there is


no more USSR. There is a country that's Russia, which doesn't deserve


to be treated with prejudice. It hasn't led any campaigns against


European countries, or against the US. Has Putin done more good or more


harm to the world? First we need to ask whether he did more harm than


good to Russia. Russia is going broadly in the right direction, it


has improved its economy, although it is still fragile. What I noticed


is that Putin's government must be pretty popular with Russians, given


that it is constantly being re-elected. What more can I say? Has


he done more good? When he intervened in Syria against IS, yes.


Because if Syria had fallen into the hands of IS, like Libya has fallen


into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, nothing could


prevent the growth of IS. The explosion of fundamentalist Islam,


and we are just next door, Europe. So yes, I think his intervention in


Syria is a positive to the world. You haven't met with Mr Trump? No.


Nor with Theresa May? With Angela Merkel? Know but why should I go and


see Mrs Merkel or Theresa May? We may have some things to talk about


with Theresa May but with Mrs Merkel things are very clear. We are in


total opposition, I and the anti-Merkel. I am opposed to her


economic policy, monetary policy. I'm opposed to migrant policy. Very


clearly we are in total opposition. Either way, that doesn't mean that


if I'm elected president I won't talk to Mrs Merkel and defend France


's interests. But all these heads of state, you haven't met with them.


Despite everything you have tried to do to change the image of your


party, the truth is there is still a toxicity that surrounds it. Don't


you think that Mrs Merkel is toxic for Europe? She let 1.5 million


migrants in, isn't that toxic? She imposes austerity to all the nations


of Europe, isn't that toxic? She's the one who is toxic. Either way,


she's in creasing the isolated because the policies I represent the


policies represented by Mr Trump. It's represented by Mr Putin. The


British people have just made it clear they want to go in that


direction. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is one of the new parties


but greatly increased his numbers of seats. Things are moving in Europe


in the direction of the ideas and policies I represent. And if you win


in May, does that spelt the beginning of the end of the EU? But


the EU is almost already over. Rather than waiting for its chaotic


collapse, I suggest we organise its transformation into a Europe of


Nations, while respecting the wishes of the European peoples. Have you


noticed that all the referendums on the subject of the EU that have been


organised in the past 15 years have been lost by the EU? All of them,


without exception. Have you seen that Poland is saying no, I then


want to join the euro. When a few years ago they were begging to join.


It's over, the EU is shining the light of a dead star. Thank you.


Emily speaking to the French presidential candidate Marine Le


Pen. We've got some French election news, the wife of the presidential


candidate Francois Fillon has been placed under formal investigation.


This is part of the continuing fake jobs in quarry. She spent the day


being questioned by magistrates. Her husband was placed under formal


investigation earlier this month, he is accused of paying hundreds of


thousands of euros to members of his family for work they didn't do.


Now the papers and let's start with the Daily Telegraph. There is a


unifying theme across the front pages you won't be surprised to know


on the day that Article 50 is being triggered. Mrs May tells Britons to


put behind differences as she dispatches the Article 50 letter.


The Times has a picture of her signing the Article 50 letter in the


Cabinet room yesterday under the gaze of Robert Walpole. Theresa May


has insisted the country will remain an ally of the EU. The Guardian, a


jigsaw puzzle over a map of Europe. Today Britain steps into the


unknown, those words where the UK would have been. Saying Theresa May


is beginning a two-year process that will see the UK leave the EU sever a


political relationship that has lasted 44 years. The Sun is beaming


a message to our neighbours. The daily Mirror says we are one great


union of people and nations with a proud history and a bright future.


Quoting Theresa May. That's all we've got


time for this evening. But we couldn't let you go


without showing you this stunning, van Gogh-esque image of Jupiter's


surface, sent 588 million kilometres


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