28/03/2017 Newsnight

Could the next shock to the global liberal establishment be Le Pen?

We speak to the great hope of populism in France.

Also tonight, Theresa May will formally begins the Brexit

And we send the High Priest of Remainism to understand why

Ebbw Vale in South Wales voted so emphatically for Brexit.

So much of the investment here has come from the European Union. The

college, the station, all of these buildings were invested in from

funds from the EU. Funds which won't necessarily be replaced by

governments in London and Cardiff. My first question is why did people

vote in large numbers against the European Union, the source of so

much investment in this community? "One more sleep", as one Leave

supporting blog tweeted today. By this time tomorrow,

the Prime Minister will have triggered Article 50 and Britain's

departure from the European Union As we will hear over the course

of tonight's programme, In a moment, Emily gets

Marine Le Pen's take on Brexit and, But first I'm joined

by our political editor Nick Watt in the studio,

and by our Diplomatic Editor Nick, what is exactly going to

happen tomorrow? It will have the feel of a budget day. Theresa May

will brief colleagues can only meeting of the Cabinet, then she

will do her normal Prime Minister's Questions and that will be followed

by her statement on the Article 50 letter. At around the time she

stands up in the Commons, the UK ambassador to the EU Sir Tim Barrow

will hand the real copy of the letter to the European Council

president Donald Tusk in Brussels, and Donald Tusk is then expected to

tweet he has received it. That will mark the formal triggering of

Article 50. What we really want to know is what is in the letter? I'm

told the tone will be friendly, it will essentially set out the

framework of her Lancaster house speech in January. What that said is

a close trading relationship but no membership of the European single

market. What I'm told is going to be really interesting is what isn't in

the letter. It will not get into generalities, you will not see a sum

of money on what the UK is prepared or not prepared to pay for the exit

bill and I'm told there will not be any date on a cut-off date for when

the rights of EU citizens in the UK will stop. The guiding thought is do

not repeat the mistake of David Cameron, who put too much detail in

his letter for his EU negotiations, and gave the impression that he was

scared of walking away. Keep your cards close. OK. Mark, what has been

the reaction in Europe today? What we can expect tomorrow is, firstly,

expressions of regret that Britain is going ahead with this. Then

pretty swiftly after that, some fundamental declarations of

principle. On the financial issue, I think you can expect a pretty hard

line. The EU's legal advice is that Britain is liable for budget

contributions, one person told me tonight at least 45 billion euros

between now and 2020. And they simply will say they won't budge. By

about one month's time, the formal negotiating guidelines will have

been given to the negotiator and I think things will go quiet for a

while. For a whole load of reasons, including in this country and

others. Then I think we will see things playing into next year with

particularly the German strategy and that of the president of the

European Council Donald Tusk, I think will be to take a tough line

and offer Britain as many opportunities to change its mind as

possible, right up to that vote on the terms of the deal as it is being

proposed that will happen in Parliament towards the end of the

process. Nick, we can't forget today there has been another vote in

Scotland to request another independence referendum. And they've

predictable response from the UK Government saying now isn't the time

to have that. On Thursday David Davis will say to the Scottish

Government and the other devolved administrations, the UK Government

doesn't want to hoard power. He will say he is prepared to hand back

some, but not all powers on fisheries and agriculture, to those

devolved administrations. David Davis will do that when he sets out

the next stage after the triggering of Article 50, the Great Repeal

Bill. It annuls the Act of Parliament that took us into the EEC

and it secondly brings back into UK law all the EU law. Really

interesting on the next stage after that, what of those EU laws that

will be in UK law, what they should appeal. He will say that isn't this

Parliament, that is that the next Parliament, put it in the Tory

manifesto. Reaction will be very interesting. Thank you.

Once the ceremonies of tomorrow's triggering are done with, there is

the possibility of no deal at all. We are joined by Anna Seabury and

Bernard Jenkin. Good evening. -- Anna Soubry. I'm an ex-Remainer. We

are leaving the EU so I don't know what you would call me. Are you a

happy lever? Of course I'm not. I think our country has lost the plot

and an extremely worried about our future. But we've got this vote,

we've got to deliver it, the Prime Minister has been remarkably

courageous in stepping up accepting this button which she would clearly

not have chosen, and she's now got to deliver four bespoke deals in

under two years. Almost an impossible task. You don't think she

can do it? I think she's got to be brave to say if we need more time,

if we need a transition period she's got to do that. Most of all, she's

got to resist the calls from dear Bernard who will urge her with his

merry band who have been wreaking havoc in my party for decades, to

avoid a hard Brexit which nobody in my constituency, nor I believe

anywhere else in the country, voted for. Is it a problem if there is no

deal? You said it's almost impossible for her... Let it just

find out from Bernard, do you think it is a disaster if there isn't a

deal? It depends what you mean by deal. I agree the idea we are going

to finish up with a comprehensive trade agreement within two years is

extremely unlikely, not least because the EU would find it very

difficult to agree such a deal. It takes the EU a very long time to

agree these things. So I think Anna is right that we finish up with some

kind of transitional arrangement. What we should hope for is that we

will sign sensible arrangements have customs facilitation and memoranda

of understanding and that sort of thing. Which the EU has with every

other country trades within the world, whether or not it's got a

trade deal. Hopefully we'll get the EU to accept our offer of free

trade, that is zero tariff on manufactures, so that we can carry

on trading more or less as we do at the moment. If the EU contacts that

but, all they want us to pay too much for that, that's the point at

which we have to say, no, that's OK, we'll pay the tariffs. There will be

a process of adjustment if we have to introduce tariffs but the

adjustment will be more severe fur some of the industries on the

European Union but exports so much more to our country than we do to

them. And the British Exchequer will raise billions and billions of

pounds from the import tariffs from the EU which we can spend on

supporting the motor industry, inward investment and investment

allowances, grants the science and technology and other things that

make us competitive. Anna, if you go into negotiations saying we have to

come to a deal at the end of two years, you've lost your hand,

haven't you? I'm not saying that. I think the Prime Minister wants a

deal. We all want a deal. I'm glad because I'm afraid there are lots of

people on your side who don't want a deal. They want us to fall off the

cliff edge and go hanging. For a start, there is no cliff edge.

Unless the EU is completely insane and not going to sign anything with

us, not even the most basic customs facilitation deals... Icon believe

the EU is as insane as that or as incapable as that. It's the time it

would take. This is really simple stuff. All our product standards...

Are you saying this negotiation period is simple? A comprehensive

free trade agreement is complicated. There was one huge advantage to the

EU and the UK, all our regulation is currently aligned. We aren't like

the EU and Canada, or the EU and China, where they've got to think

about how they deal with the misalignment. We start from the same

business. A car in the UK is the same as a car in the EU. It's

exactly the same. We don't need to stop at the borders to prove they

are cars. The problem is this idea, that it's a simple process on trade,

it's not about trade... Don't misrepresent what I said. Even if we

come out of the EU without any trade deal, we will still have customs

facilitation arrangement, product recognition, all of these things...

Do you want there to be a formal deal, or do you want the UK to walk

away having another chip to bargain with? When you say another chip to

bargain with, the EU is asking us to give money, they are asking us to

give concessions. We are offering a blanket offer. We are saying you can

have access to your biggest export market, exactly as you do now,

without any costs or tariffs, if that is what you want. The choices

for the EU, they've got to decide... This is madness. We don't hold the

cards. Yes we do. There are 27 members left in the EU. We need them

much more than they need us. I'm sorry, you've got to be honest about

it. It is to everybody's mutual advantage that we have a free trade

agreement and recognition of financial services, and all those

things. We are in a much stronger position than them. We've got to get

four deals... You haven't let me explain this thing about the four

hugely complicated deals we have to do. We have to sort out European

citizens, EU citizenship. That in itself is difficult. Secondly we

have customs to sort out. Thirdly we have trade to sort out. Fourthly we

have to do a bespoke deal on security. And we are going to do all

of that in about 18 months, and some of it is simple? It's just, you're

not being honest with people about what's happening. And actually, what

we are really doing... I just need to say this. All of this madness,

this complexity, this nightmare of detail, when actually what we are

doing is we are walking away from 500 million customers. What we have

at the moment, a single market which has provided decades of prosperity

for our country. Which needs to be negotiated. Bernard you are saying

these negotiations can carry on but would you be prepared to walk away,

do you think we can walk away and not pay any money? If they ask us...

Festival, Article 50 is very clear. All our obligations fall away when

Article 50 reaches the end of the process. We won't have to pay a

penny. If no deal is struck. And then the EU has the choice to take

the UK to court. They wouldn't, because Article 50 is in the

treaties of the European Union and that trumps any of the other

convention or treaty rules. They replace the rules were leaving the

EU with Article 50 is about is the law that would apply. The idea of

the European Court of Justice would apply international law and not

their own treaties, it just wouldn't happen. So you are telling people we

can just walk away, we'll have no bills at all, and we walk away onto

WTO rules and regulations and tariffs, and no customs deal? There

would have to be a customs deal. Do you really believe the EU would be

insane enough not to do a customs facilitation deal with the UK? When

they do it with America, whom they don't have a trade deal with, they

do it with a knob of countries they don't have a trade deal with... --

with a number of countries. BMW would be happy with that

arrangement. This idea that we hold all the cards... So you think they

are insane? I think we are insane for not being honest with people

about the complexities and the dangers to our economy. We are

jumping off the cliff. Thank you for a very energetic conversation and

debate. Now, if the triggering of Article 50

feels like the end of the beginning, what is there to say

about that beginning? It's been nine months since we voted

to leave and in that time we've heard an awful lot about the UK's

divorce terms - but have politicians made enough effort to set up

the negotiations to embrace the opportunities

that Brexit offers? Not according to leading

Brexiteer Tim Montgomerie. Nine months after the historic

Brexit vote some remain supporters are trying to discover why so many

of their countrymen voted to leave. One of the most prominent Remain

campaigners is former He's been to Ebbw Vale -

a town which saw the highest proportion of voters in Wales that

voted to leave the EU. It's also a town that received funds

from the EU totalling ?1.8 Here's the former Deputy Prime

Minister finding out why, for Ebbw Vale's citizens,

divorce from the EU was so much more A town of around 30,000

people in the heart Once home to the largest

steelworks in Europe, Ebbw Vale today is in one

of the most socially and economically deprived regions

in the United Kingdom. A quarter of working age

adults are on benefits. Male unemployment is more

than double the national average. And more than a third

of the population have no To any casual visitor,

Ebbw Vale doesn't superficially look or feel like one of the most

hard-hit areas of Britain. The old steelworks has

recently been redeveloped at a cost of ?350 million,

creating new schools and colleges, a new hospital,

and state-of-the-art sports facilities, not to mention

all the construction work involved in building new road and rail

links into town. I've also never been to a place

with so many blue EU flags, That's because the EU has

funded a sizeable part A whopping ?1.8 billion has

been invested by the EU Yet in the Brexit referendum,

62% of people here voted to leave, So much of the investment here has

come from the European Union. The college over there,

the station over there, all of these buildings were invested

in from funds from Funds which won't necessarily be

replaced by governments So my first question is,

why did people vote in large numbers against the European Union,

the source of so much Monday night is bingo night

at the ex-servicemen's club. That is the percentage that

voted out with Brexit. My name is George Mont,

and from Ebbw Vale, born and bred. I would like to put the great

back in Great Britain. Because we are not governing

ourselves, we are governed I voted out of Brexit

for two main reasons. To stop the illegal immigrants

coming in and to get our My name is Maureen Windmill

from Ebbw Vale, South Wales. One of the main reasons being any

monies that we've received from Europe to be spent on our town

was spent on the wrong things. Fairly unanimous views

from the bingo crowd, then. The next morning I met up

with the leader of the Ebbw Vale He agreed to show me some examples

of what people here feel has We started on the new ?2.5 million

lift that takes you up the side Fantastic amount of money,

over half a billion. The dragon is European

funded, is it? What do you think of all the money

being spent on the town centre here, the high streets, this dragon,

and so on? You cannot complain about it in one

sense, it is pretty. If you have someone dying,

you do not give them cosmetic surgery to keep them alive,

that is not enough. It does not need pretty bollards

and wonderful dragons and a clock This specific criticism about how EU

money is being spent is accompanied by a wider yearning for a return

to the certainties of the town's industrial past when the steelworks

provided full employment 600,000 tonnes of rolled steel used

to be produced here annually. The giant furnaces used

to light up the night sky. Bringing prosperity

and pride to the town. But 15 years ago the steelworks

closed down and the site was demolished, ending over 200

years of iron and steel production. Nothing big enough has been able

to replace all the lost jobs and the industrial skills

of the past. I was the last training master

in Ebbw Vale before it closed. And so when we talk apprenticeships,

when we had a steelworks with City and Guilds London registered

apprenticeships, four-year, five-year apprenticeships,

we had proper training. This place we are sat in today,

the Scientific Institution, taught physics, chemistry,

woodwork, metalwork, electrical, If we could have European

money to reinvent that... because we are told

we haven't got the skills, we need people to come

in from Eastern Europe, or wherever, then I think people

would have said, hang on. So the money was used to provide,

we didn't see that, Those same people, those who have

lived here all their lives, maybe worked in the steelworks

when it was still open here, they feel the EU funding that's been

invested into the local community to help, hasn't really made

the difference that they want. It has created shiny

buildings like this, it's been used to fund street art,

it's used to make cosmetic changes, but not to really

help people find work. However, when you get chatting

to people, many say their number one reason for voting to leave the EU

wasn't jobs or a lack of heavy It's lunchtime in Morgan's Pub

in the town centre. It's part of an arcade refurbished

with, you guessed it, EU money. Only around 2% of the population in

Ebbw Vale are actually foreign-born. Even so, views on

immigration run strong. That was the biggest

worry, why I voted out. I know you can't stop immigration,

hospitals need the nurses But then, all the others

that have come here, I know I shouldn't be prejudiced,

but I just want our country, I'd like it to be back,

I know it never will be, Personally, for me,

it's not a big deal. But I can understand

where they're coming from, They are being taken,

wages are being undermined. I understand that,

I totally understand that. I think they've got

to vet people coming in, If you went to America,

if you went to Canada, if you went to Australia,

you'd have to have the And I think that's

what they need here. Immigration was obviously

a hugely important factor for so many of those

who voted for Brexit. But, given how low immigration

is locally, it isn't clear what will need to change

in Ebbw Vale itself And is immigration such a big

concern for younger generations? A group of students

at the new part-EU-funded sixth form college allowed me

to interrupt their If you had voted, would immigration

have been a really big deal for you? It's not that immigration

affects our area, it's It's a feeling, it's an emotion,

it's a thing that many people, There's no immigration here,

it's the fear of it. You've got, like, a few people

from Poland, Turkey, Romania. But I feel like if they've got

better qualifications than some of the people who live here,

they should have the jobs, because it's all about

the best qualified. I feel like we should

all be treated equally. A lot of this immigration

that is coming in now has been witnessed by an older generation,

whereas my generation, I have gone through school with people

from different backgrounds. Because I've grown up with them,

I don't have that same fear of immigration,

because I know they Because other people, like,

the older generation didn't experience that as much,

they have that bigger fear of it, Walking around this splendid ?35

million building, it's clear that, despite the negative perceptions

amongst some older voters about how EU money is spent,

it has helped younger students to gain both academic

and vocational skills. The young and the old,

here in Ebbw Vale, appear to perceive the same

reality very differently. And this generational difference

could increase further if Brexit doesn't bring the benefits people

were told to expect New jobs, new industry, more money

for the NHS, less immigration. If people feel let down,

the political consequences They will go to the extremes,

most definitely. Especially the Brexiteers,

because they are most likely the poorer and least well off and,

I'd say, in some cases abandoned I think centre ground

politics is not as engaging. If you're in a well-off area,

you're going to feel frustrated, and I think it's easier to relate

to people who are on the far You can see it in the Netherlands,

France and Greece right now, all the extreme parties

are incredibly popular over there. And it's worrying,

because the normal parties like the Conservatives,

Lib Dems and Labour need to catch onto this and capitalise, and say,

well, we support but let's not go So, having spent some

time here in Ebbw Vale, I'm much clearer in my own mind

about why people voted for Brexit in large numbers,

particularly older voters. Because, how much money was spent

by the European Union on this shiny building or that project,

all of that paled into significance to the feeling, the

longing for a return When the steelworks were open,

when everyone had jobs, when people had money

in their pockets. And when people had an opportunity

to rattle the cage and say, we want that back, it wasn't so much

that they were left behind, it was their feeling

about what they had left behind. But the past is not going to return,

and it's difficult not to feel a sense of foreboding that,

should Brexit fail to meet people's hopes, dissatisfaction

could turn into real rage. And, as we're seeing

elsewhere in the world, that can quickly be seized

upon by political movements offering ever more divisive and angry

visions of the future. Of the many uncertainties

surrounding Brexit, there is of course the issue

of what the EU will look In under four weeks,

France goes to the polls. Were Marine Le Pen's Front National

to win, well, its future in the bloc would be under scrutiny,

as Le Pen has promised a referendum That's undeniably the intention of

the EU. The EU wants the divorce to be as painful as possible so they

can feel other nations of Europe want to leave this political

structure. They don't want a domino effect. But Mel didn't work, Project

fear didn't work either. So they have to try and make the separation

as painful as possible -- blackmail didn't work. Will they succeed? I

so. Is it possible for Britain to get a good deal after Brexit from

the EU as it stands? Yes, I think so. It will be led by the defence of

its own best interests and when to be constrained by the ideology of

the EU, which today prevents from protecting themselves from

uncontrolled globalisation. You borrowed money from a Russian bank.

Several years ago with borrowed money from a Czech Russian bank but

that's because they agreed to lend us money. If it had been a British

bank, we would have borrowed from a British bank. But it was a Russian

bank? Yes, I don't owe the bank anything other than to pay it back.

I'd have no obligations towards it, I'm not reliant on anyone. You don't

regret it? So I'm prevented from borrowing from a French bank and

then approached for borrowing from a foreign bank. What would people have

said it it had been an American bank, or an African bank? I think

it's more problematic when candidates seek donations in foreign

countries. You know what Napoleon used to say, the hand that gives is

always above the hand that receives. You know President Putin quite well,

what do you think of him? I've met him once. That was last week. Yes, I

had an opportunity to have a long conversation with him on the

situation in the world. Particularly on a key topic which is the fight

against Islamist terrorism. Do you think the West has misunderstood

Putin? I think the previous American administration in effect put the

Berlin Wall on wheels and pushed it back to Russia's borders. That was

in the interest of the US. Was it in the interest of the EU? The answer

is no. We have no reason to enter a new Cold War with Russia, absolutely

none. But Russia's sphere of influence is increasing, including

the Baltic states. We struck deals with Russia after World War II, and

those deals were reneges on. In recent years the US wouldn't stop

militarising countries on Russia's border with Nato. So it was felt by

Russia as a form of hostility. I'm not a supporter of mounting

conflict, hostility, of warmongering. These provocations

that naturally cause a reaction. Ukraine is part of Russia's sphere

of influence, it's a fact. Just like Canada is part of America's sphere

of influence. But it is simpler than that. If the Russian military were

to make an incursion into the Baltic states or into Ukraine, would France

come to the protection of the Baltic states? You want war at all costs?

What is your problem? You want to go to war, you like war? You like war?

You want conflict? You want us to start world War three? At the moment

no one wants to go to war with anyone. I'm happy to go into the

hypotheses but no one is going to war with anyone. No one wants to go

to war with anyone else. There was a territorial conflict with Ukraine,

these things happen. Now it has to be resolved diplomatically and I

think France's voice has wait, as long as France is France. Not a

region of the EU. If you are trying to say Russia is a military danger

to European countries I think you are mistaken in your analysis. What

should be France's commitment towards Nato? I think France should

leave Nato Allied command. I agree with Donald Trump when he says Nato

is obsolete. Because Nato was created to fight the USSR. Today

there is no USSR. I know it's uncomfortable for some but there is

no more USSR. There is a country that's Russia, which doesn't deserve

to be treated with prejudice. It hasn't led any campaigns against

European countries, or against the US. Has Putin done more good or more

harm to the world? First we need to ask whether he did more harm than

good to Russia. Russia is going broadly in the right direction, it

has improved its economy, although it is still fragile. What I noticed

is that Putin's government must be pretty popular with Russians, given

that it is constantly being re-elected. What more can I say? Has

he done more good? When he intervened in Syria against IS, yes.

Because if Syria had fallen into the hands of IS, like Libya has fallen

into the hands of Islamic fundamentalists, nothing could

prevent the growth of IS. The explosion of fundamentalist Islam,

and we are just next door, Europe. So yes, I think his intervention in

Syria is a positive to the world. You haven't met with Mr Trump? No.

Nor with Theresa May? With Angela Merkel? Know but why should I go and

see Mrs Merkel or Theresa May? We may have some things to talk about

with Theresa May but with Mrs Merkel things are very clear. We are in

total opposition, I and the anti-Merkel. I am opposed to her

economic policy, monetary policy. I'm opposed to migrant policy. Very

clearly we are in total opposition. Either way, that doesn't mean that

if I'm elected president I won't talk to Mrs Merkel and defend France

's interests. But all these heads of state, you haven't met with them.

Despite everything you have tried to do to change the image of your

party, the truth is there is still a toxicity that surrounds it. Don't

you think that Mrs Merkel is toxic for Europe? She let 1.5 million

migrants in, isn't that toxic? She imposes austerity to all the nations

of Europe, isn't that toxic? She's the one who is toxic. Either way,

she's in creasing the isolated because the policies I represent the

policies represented by Mr Trump. It's represented by Mr Putin. The

British people have just made it clear they want to go in that

direction. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders is one of the new parties

but greatly increased his numbers of seats. Things are moving in Europe

in the direction of the ideas and policies I represent. And if you win

in May, does that spelt the beginning of the end of the EU? But

the EU is almost already over. Rather than waiting for its chaotic

collapse, I suggest we organise its transformation into a Europe of

Nations, while respecting the wishes of the European peoples. Have you

noticed that all the referendums on the subject of the EU that have been

organised in the past 15 years have been lost by the EU? All of them,

without exception. Have you seen that Poland is saying no, I then

want to join the euro. When a few years ago they were begging to join.

It's over, the EU is shining the light of a dead star. Thank you.

Emily speaking to the French presidential candidate Marine Le

Pen. We've got some French election news, the wife of the presidential

candidate Francois Fillon has been placed under formal investigation.

This is part of the continuing fake jobs in quarry. She spent the day

being questioned by magistrates. Her husband was placed under formal

investigation earlier this month, he is accused of paying hundreds of

thousands of euros to members of his family for work they didn't do.

Now the papers and let's start with the Daily Telegraph. There is a

unifying theme across the front pages you won't be surprised to know

on the day that Article 50 is being triggered. Mrs May tells Britons to

put behind differences as she dispatches the Article 50 letter.

The Times has a picture of her signing the Article 50 letter in the

Cabinet room yesterday under the gaze of Robert Walpole. Theresa May

has insisted the country will remain an ally of the EU. The Guardian, a

jigsaw puzzle over a map of Europe. Today Britain steps into the

unknown, those words where the UK would have been. Saying Theresa May

is beginning a two-year process that will see the UK leave the EU sever a

political relationship that has lasted 44 years. The Sun is beaming

a message to our neighbours. The daily Mirror says we are one great

union of people and nations with a proud history and a bright future.

Quoting Theresa May. That's all we've got

time for this evening. But we couldn't let you go

without showing you this stunning, van Gogh-esque image of Jupiter's

surface, sent 588 million kilometres