19/04/2017 Newsnight


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19/04/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis.


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Talking Tory - what direction will Theresa May's election

:00:00.:00:00.

We've heard so little of her plans on spending, defence,

:00:00.:00:12.

austerity and foreign aid - what goes; what stays?

:00:13.:00:18.

We talk to those who knew the last manifesto inside out.

:00:19.:00:23.

And to the Tory leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson.

:00:24.:00:26.

The Scottish Conservatives always put the union first,

:00:27.:00:28.

That's why whether you're a tactical voter, and I'm not

:00:29.:00:34.

necessarily someone who expounds that, but if you're

:00:35.:00:36.

a principled voter, your vote, if you don't want the SNP,

:00:37.:00:38.

if you don't want to encourage their tunnel vision

:00:39.:00:41.

to break up Britain, is to vote for the

:00:42.:00:43.

What do you do if you're a Labour voting Brexiteer who likes this

:00:44.:00:47.

And non-Tory area as we are, we're not going to vote for those, but who

:00:48.:00:59.

else have we got in front of us? And how do Lib Dems claw back

:01:00.:01:04.

the South West that went Just two years ago this month, David

:01:05.:01:07.

Cameron's Conservative manifesto was promising a Brighter,

:01:08.:01:19.

More Secure Future. An irony presumably not

:01:20.:01:22.

lost on the former PM - What will she chose

:01:23.:01:24.

to promise the nation? Brexit determined her reign,

:01:25.:01:30.

Brexit has dominated it so far. But what about all the other stuff

:01:31.:01:33.

that decides how we vote? Spending plans, schools,

:01:34.:01:36.

foreign aid and defence. What will she set out to achieve -

:01:37.:01:41.

and what may trip her up Our political editor Nick Watt

:01:42.:01:44.

has been having a look, Nick, let's just focus

:01:45.:01:48.

on the aid budget. There is something of a battle going

:01:49.:02:00.

on at senior levels of the Conservative Party. 0.7% pledge of

:02:01.:02:05.

gross national income that should be spent on overseas aid. There are

:02:06.:02:08.

senior figures who are saying that should be rolled in with a 3% of GDP

:02:09.:02:13.

that is spent on defence. The much smaller amount spent on issue

:02:14.:02:18.

national trade, and that should create an overarching security

:02:19.:02:22.

budget that would come to around 3% of GDP. Now, that would run into

:02:23.:02:27.

trouble potentially with the official development assistance

:02:28.:02:32.

rules which govern what you can define as international aid

:02:33.:02:36.

spending. What kind of resistance is she getting on this? I think it's

:02:37.:02:40.

fair to say the International Development Secretary will be keen

:02:41.:02:45.

to keep the ring fenced budget. She believes it benefits developing

:02:46.:02:47.

countries and has a benefit to the UK, because it helps to create a

:02:48.:02:52.

much more stable and safer world. But also its defenders believe they

:02:53.:02:55.

have some powerful arguments, some of which are being heard

:02:56.:03:00.

sympathetically at senior levels. In the first place there is a feeling

:03:01.:03:03.

that, would you potentially be sending a signal that the UK at the

:03:04.:03:08.

time of Brexit is stepping back from the wider world? That's being heard

:03:09.:03:10.

sympathetically. The second one is, the biggest threat to

:03:11.:03:25.

the Conservatives in this general election will be from the Liberal

:03:26.:03:27.

Democrats. Do you want to be handing them a gift? With these issues in

:03:28.:03:30.

mind we thought today we would look at the approach Theresa May may

:03:31.:03:34.

adopt in those non-Brexit issues. The architects of David Cameron's

:03:35.:03:38.

modernisation project always feared it could go up in a puff of smoke.

:03:39.:03:45.

Their nemesis Theresa May now has a chance to remodel the Conservative

:03:46.:03:50.

offer for the people she wants to champion, ordinary working families.

:03:51.:03:54.

Her election manifesto will give the Prime Minister the opportunity to

:03:55.:03:59.

jump and mend or perhaps build on some of David Cameron's signature

:04:00.:04:04.

themes. One of his former advisers hoped she seizes her chance. She has

:04:05.:04:08.

this opportunity to reset the whole social settlement of our country,

:04:09.:04:12.

and with an opposition in such disarray, the way is open for her to

:04:13.:04:16.

introduce a really radical reforms. I think we're in 1945 moment.

:04:17.:04:24.

There's a huge international event happening, but behind the scenes in

:04:25.:04:28.

1945 they were preparing for the welfare state. I would like to see

:04:29.:04:33.

Theresa May Bibi Glenn Catley of our time. Behind the scenes at

:04:34.:04:36.

Westminster there is something of a pre-manifesto battle going on as

:04:37.:04:39.

ministers seek to promote cherished ideas and, in some cases, to grab

:04:40.:04:44.

territory from rival colleagues. There is the sound of sniping in the

:04:45.:04:49.

air. Newsnight understands there is a

:04:50.:04:54.

push in Whitehall to change David Cameron's landmark commitment to

:04:55.:04:59.

spend 0.7% of gross national income on overseas aid. There are calls to

:05:00.:05:03.

bundle this up with defence spending into one overarching budget, a move

:05:04.:05:08.

that being resisted by the intervention International

:05:09.:05:12.

Development Secretary. Priti Patel has a reputation as a right-wing aid

:05:13.:05:19.

sceptic but she believes the ring fenced aid budget delivers enormous

:05:20.:05:23.

benefits to developing countries. That is a risk, that you lose if you

:05:24.:05:28.

remove that target, you lose all the goodwill that comes from a

:05:29.:05:31.

significant amount of the population that does actually believe in our

:05:32.:05:36.

overseas aid spending. We always recognised and one of the ways we

:05:37.:05:40.

justify the overseas spending as it is part of our soft power and is

:05:41.:05:45.

also part of our defence, because if we help poor countries and

:05:46.:05:49.

developing nations to grow and prosper economically, then we can

:05:50.:05:54.

trade with them and partner them. One of the most expensive

:05:55.:05:57.

commitments made by David Cameron was the so-called pension triple

:05:58.:06:02.

lock, the pledge that the state pension rises by at least 2.5% or

:06:03.:06:07.

inflation or average earnings if they are higher. Newsnight

:06:08.:06:11.

understands ministers are taking a hard look at this commitment and no

:06:12.:06:15.

decisions have been taken. I don't think it sustainable for

:06:16.:06:21.

long and it's had its effect. We've seen pensioner poverty falling.

:06:22.:06:24.

Pensioner incomes are higher than disposable incomes for working age

:06:25.:06:27.

families. The work of the triple lock is coming to an end. We do need

:06:28.:06:32.

to rebalance the fiscal settlement towards younger people. We need to

:06:33.:06:36.

cut costs overall, I'm afraid, still, painful though that is. But

:06:37.:06:40.

where there is public spending changes to be made, I'd like to see

:06:41.:06:45.

a greater investment in younger people. That will ultimately bring

:06:46.:06:49.

the costs down in the future. I think there is an unfairness in the

:06:50.:06:52.

current measure and we need to rebalance a little.

:06:53.:06:57.

David Cameron unleashed a schools revolution with the creation of a

:06:58.:07:01.

new generation of free schools, but there was one line he never crossed,

:07:02.:07:06.

selection by academic ability. Theresa May will put her plans

:07:07.:07:12.

Manaus grammar schools in the manifesto but Newsnight understands

:07:13.:07:14.

this will be modest. The Prime Minister sees the creation of just

:07:15.:07:21.

20 new grammars. A wounded Philip Hammond will adopt

:07:22.:07:24.

a highly cautious approach as he tries to stabilise the public

:07:25.:07:28.

finances. Newsnight understands that under current thinking of the

:07:29.:07:33.

manifesto will avoid making major commitments on the big ticket item

:07:34.:07:37.

of social care ahead of the publication of a Green paper later

:07:38.:07:40.

this year. This government isn't going to make

:07:41.:07:43.

a dramatic breach with the last one, in terms of the overall spending.

:07:44.:07:48.

The fact is we still have a significant Budget deficit, we still

:07:49.:07:51.

have a national debt that needs to be paid down and the right thing to

:07:52.:07:55.

do for the long-term, for the next generation, for the people who will

:07:56.:07:58.

be growing up after Brexit is to get our national accounts into balance.

:07:59.:08:04.

The curtain finally fell on the Cameron project today when George

:08:05.:08:06.

Osborne announced he would take his leave of Parliament. The baton has

:08:07.:08:11.

passed to an older and very different generation of

:08:12.:08:19.

conservatives. Lots to chew over. How far from the Cameron manifesto

:08:20.:08:21.

is Theresa May likely to move? Camilla Cavendish was Head

:08:22.:08:23.

of Policy for David Cameron, Andrew Mitchell was

:08:24.:08:25.

the International Development Lovely to have you both here. Let's

:08:26.:08:39.

go through them. This 0.7% which has been so strongly ring fenced, and

:08:40.:08:42.

you will remember it well, it under threat? Should it be negotiable now?

:08:43.:08:47.

I hope not and I don't think so. It wasn't David Cameron who first

:08:48.:08:51.

committed the Conservative Party to the 0.7, it was Michael Howard when

:08:52.:08:56.

he was leader. Not exactly a limp wristed lefty. It is a core promise

:08:57.:09:00.

of the Conservative Party. I very much hope it will be retrained. Of

:09:01.:09:05.

course it is also the law of the land now, we passed as legislation

:09:06.:09:10.

to try and take it out of party politics. It could be bundled,

:09:11.:09:14.

remain the same? It can't actually, it's not just the money but the

:09:15.:09:18.

rules under which it is spent. The pooled funds on defence diplomacy

:09:19.:09:22.

and development, within that ring fence there is another ring fence

:09:23.:09:26.

that protects the development budget. If you take away the rules

:09:27.:09:30.

will be plundered by other departments. Can we get through this

:09:31.:09:35.

one? My experience is that is what happens. It is under threat, Andrew,

:09:36.:09:41.

as you know. The UK is the second largest aid donor in the world. A

:09:42.:09:44.

lot of people feel is too much. You and I both know when you're trying

:09:45.:09:53.

to go into very, very poor countries and deal with sometimes very corrupt

:09:54.:09:55.

governments, some of that money is wasted. That is a fact. There is a

:09:56.:09:59.

decision to be made if we want to continue at this level or not. I

:10:00.:10:03.

think they may go for trying to redefine the rules, because if you

:10:04.:10:07.

had a bit more flexibility in the rules, you would be able to use it

:10:08.:10:11.

in a different way, have the military for example offering

:10:12.:10:15.

humanitarian assistance. There are ring fences within ring fences, it's

:10:16.:10:20.

very frustrating for government in terms of meeting the objectives. You

:10:21.:10:24.

can use the military or delivering humanitarian aid and it comes off

:10:25.:10:29.

the disappeared budget. We need to be very per about this. The rules

:10:30.:10:35.

are set why the OECD. You have to persuade 33 countries to change

:10:36.:10:38.

those rules and it won't happen. You speak from experience in the field

:10:39.:10:41.

and you have worked right inside number ten. Does it feel to you like

:10:42.:10:47.

it is tied? I've always been concerned is too high and I I'm

:10:48.:10:51.

concerned now because we are still running a deficit and because of

:10:52.:10:54.

Brexit, we have a Conservative government that is no longer

:10:55.:10:59.

committed to producing a surplus by 2020, which Cameron and Osborne

:11:00.:11:02.

were, because we don't know what economic perils lie ahead. I'm

:11:03.:11:06.

concerned it is too high. It would be popular with the country she cut

:11:07.:11:11.

this, at least in your party? We promised and is the law of the land

:11:12.:11:13.

that we would spend what is a relatively small amount of public

:11:14.:11:20.

expenditure on the poorest people in the world. That is in tune with the

:11:21.:11:23.

people of Britain. I would be surprised in a general election if

:11:24.:11:26.

we were to go back on our word, that we gave, that we would allocate 0.7%

:11:27.:11:33.

of GDP to helping the neediest. She has to be outward looking at this

:11:34.:11:37.

point. The bigger question, you have to roll everything together and say

:11:38.:11:41.

what this manifesto must not be is inward looking little England. --

:11:42.:11:46.

that will bring. There is a strong argument for retaining the 0.7%, but

:11:47.:11:51.

on any absolute financial basis, I'm afraid it should be looked at.

:11:52.:11:55.

Pushed around by tabloid newspaper bosses... Around the world Britain

:11:56.:12:01.

is lauded and deeply respected for the lives we are changing, the

:12:02.:12:04.

millions of lives we are saving as a result of this budget. Yet in

:12:05.:12:09.

Britain it receives very hostile treatment from elements within the

:12:10.:12:15.

press. It's never about... Of course it's about what you achieved. The

:12:16.:12:21.

way in which the coalition refashion development was to make sure we

:12:22.:12:26.

focused on results the money is achieving. Moving onto the grammar

:12:27.:12:34.

schools, such a who are about that, it comes down to 20. What does it

:12:35.:12:41.

say, she is rowing back? If you read the small print when she announces

:12:42.:12:44.

that was always going to be about 20 schools. She is treading very

:12:45.:12:47.

carefully. It is something she obviously feels very passionate

:12:48.:12:50.

about. She was a grammar school girl herself. She believes in this very

:12:51.:12:56.

small experiment, which is, I think, a signal to the Tory rank and file

:12:57.:13:00.

and people who would like to see more selective education. I think

:13:01.:13:04.

there is a much bigger issue, which is technical education. If she

:13:05.:13:08.

really cares about, she's talked a lot about it, I think we need to

:13:09.:13:13.

look much more closely at what we are investing in. Technical

:13:14.:13:16.

education and perhaps moving some of the money away from universities and

:13:17.:13:21.

towards vocation. There is a perception is a more old-fashioned

:13:22.:13:24.

conservatism she's going for here, not progressive so much but

:13:25.:13:27.

something that reminds people of the good things of the past. I don't

:13:28.:13:34.

agree with that. Nick's report mentioned 20 schools which I think

:13:35.:13:39.

is right. I remember in John Major's government after the 92 election, we

:13:40.:13:42.

had a policy of a grammar school in every town and none were built or

:13:43.:13:47.

opened at that time. Is 20 is a modest start but I think is the

:13:48.:13:50.

right way to implement this policy. What about triple lock? Have

:13:51.:13:55.

pensioners had their heyday? Will it get harder? I think triple lock is

:13:56.:13:58.

almost certain to go. The only question is what is replaced with.

:13:59.:14:03.

The easiest thing would be to go to double locks, which simply means you

:14:04.:14:12.

would index to inflation, which is a very safe thing to do politically

:14:13.:14:14.

because interest rates are low, inflation is low. Does that mean

:14:15.:14:17.

they end up with less money? Not in the short term. In the long-term,

:14:18.:14:21.

yes, absolutely. Older voters, the core of the Conservative Party,

:14:22.:14:24.

which is why there was a great deal of worry about this. We've basically

:14:25.:14:28.

seen younger people unable to get on the housing ladder, having pay for

:14:29.:14:32.

university and all sorts of debts... I think it's what Danny Kruger said

:14:33.:14:38.

in the report. It has had the impact we wanted it to her. Now

:14:39.:14:42.

intergenerational equity means we have to change it. And focused

:14:43.:14:47.

particularly, I think, on issues where the younger generation have

:14:48.:14:51.

lost out. Housing is probably the most significant one. Thank you

:14:52.:14:52.

both. Well, there is already a sense

:14:53.:14:55.

of deja vu with elements Yesterday, Theresa May warned

:14:56.:14:58.

about the prospect of a Labour government propped up

:14:59.:15:01.

by the Scottish National Party - a rerun of David Cameron's

:15:02.:15:04.

warning in 2015. Today, Nicola Sturgeon declared

:15:05.:15:06.

she would not rule out what she preferred to call

:15:07.:15:09.

a progressive alliance with Greens, Lib Dems and Labour in government -

:15:10.:15:12.

all the parties banding in together Let me say this very clear

:15:13.:15:15.

and straightforwardly... If the Parliamentary arithmetic lent

:15:16.:15:21.

itself to the SNP being part of a progressive alliance that

:15:22.:15:25.

would keep the Tories out of government, then the SNP

:15:26.:15:28.

would seek to be part of that, Well, one of the Tories' biggest

:15:29.:15:31.

beasts is their leader She was also one of the most vocal

:15:32.:15:42.

opponents to Brexit last year. I spoke to her just

:15:43.:15:46.

before we came on air. I asked her why she thought prounion

:15:47.:15:54.

voters were supportive of other parties should vote Conservative.

:15:55.:15:58.

The Scottish Conservatives always put the union first. That's what

:15:59.:16:02.

people know. That's why whether you are a tactical voter or a principal

:16:03.:16:08.

voter, your vote, if you don't want the SNP or to encourage their tunnel

:16:09.:16:13.

vision to break up Britain, is to vote for the Scottish Conservatives.

:16:14.:16:16.

You seem today Nicola Sturgeon saying she would happily get into

:16:17.:16:20.

bed with Jeremy Corbyn and prop him up and make him Prime Minister. I

:16:21.:16:25.

know why. Jeremy Corbyn doesn't care about the union. During the

:16:26.:16:28.

referendum campaign he didn't come to Scotland once. When he was lost

:16:29.:16:33.

in Scotland he said he was fine with there being another independence

:16:34.:16:39.

referendum. If you care about the United Kingdom in Scotland, you know

:16:40.:16:42.

your vote should be for the Scottish Conservatives. You are one of the

:16:43.:16:49.

most admired, vocal, visible faces of the Remain Campaign. It must be

:16:50.:16:54.

so hard for you to have to sell a message of hard Brexit to Scotland.

:16:55.:16:57.

If you look at what the Prime Minister said in her speech, a lot

:16:58.:17:01.

of the things she was talking about had been asked for from the Scottish

:17:02.:17:06.

Government. Things like workers' rights, things like closer

:17:07.:17:11.

co-operation on security. Things like free trade. I don't remember

:17:12.:17:16.

her threatening about co-operation on security if it didn't work.

:17:17.:17:20.

There's clearly a huge amount we put into that. One thing the Prime

:17:21.:17:25.

Minister did say, and I'm sure this got at Nicola Sturgeon's knows, that

:17:26.:17:29.

she wants the country to come out of Brexit more unified. I'm sure of the

:17:30.:17:33.

nationalist she doesn't want that let's also say this. In Scotland,

:17:34.:17:39.

whether they voted leave or remain, there is an understanding that the

:17:40.:17:43.

UK will be leaving the European Union. We want someone who can get

:17:44.:17:47.

the best deal for us because that will benefit people in Scotland as

:17:48.:17:52.

well as the rest of the UK. In this general election, the choice is to

:17:53.:17:55.

have which prime ministers sitting across the table from 27 other

:17:56.:17:59.

political leaders. Do you want Theresa May with a strong hand, a

:18:00.:18:03.

clear plan, or do you want Jeremy Corbyn, who the vast majority of his

:18:04.:18:07.

party don't think is fit to lead the Labour Party, never mind lead the

:18:08.:18:12.

country. The markets seem to conclude yesterday's announcement

:18:13.:18:16.

would herald a softer Brexit. Do you think that's what it's about? I'm

:18:17.:18:21.

not sure the markets are the best arbiter. But I believe is that a

:18:22.:18:24.

Prime Minister with a stronger majority in the House of Commons has

:18:25.:18:28.

the freedom of movement to be able to make decisions that benefited the

:18:29.:18:33.

whole country. You say freedom of movement. Amber Rudd talked about

:18:34.:18:36.

more compromise with the EU as a result of a larger majority, is that

:18:37.:18:41.

what this is about? I think it gives the prime ministers space to make

:18:42.:18:44.

long-term decisions to the benefit of the whole country. I think it

:18:45.:18:48.

also means it's not having one or two small caucuses, however

:18:49.:18:52.

organised they are in the House of Commons, being able to derail the

:18:53.:18:57.

process, because the majority is so slim. I would encourage people at

:18:58.:19:01.

home who want to give the Prime Minister every latitude to be able

:19:02.:19:05.

to be strong in those negotiations, to sit across from 27 other

:19:06.:19:09.

countries, to fight Britain's Corner, to give her the strength she

:19:10.:19:13.

needs. Otherwise it's Jeremy Corbyn who will be sitting there and I

:19:14.:19:17.

wouldn't trust him to run a bath. There is quite a big debate going on

:19:18.:19:25.

about certain Tory policies, such as the commitment of 0.7% to eight.

:19:26.:19:29.

Does that need to be guaranteed? I am committed to the target. I think

:19:30.:19:37.

international aid not only benefits the countries that receive it but we

:19:38.:19:43.

benefit too. The Prime Minister gave her commitment to that not three

:19:44.:19:50.

weeks ago. There is talk about bundling it with trade, maybe

:19:51.:19:56.

defence. Would that work? I want to make sure we did the best work

:19:57.:20:00.

abroad. I think we have a commitment to 0.7% in aid. I think it takes

:20:01.:20:06.

moral courage to be one of the leading countries that espouses

:20:07.:20:16.

that. Moral cowardice to dilate that presumably? They would have to be a

:20:17.:20:20.

legal process. We know it was enshrined in law at the Parliament.

:20:21.:20:24.

There are a lot of people across the political spectrum who show that

:20:25.:20:28.

particularly at this time, as we are leaving the European Union, we want

:20:29.:20:31.

to show we are good global citizens, but we aren't inward looking, we

:20:32.:20:34.

aren't pulling up the drawbridge, we are getting out there into the

:20:35.:20:38.

world. I think maintaining that commitment shows our commitment to

:20:39.:20:42.

the rest of the world. The SNP were told now isn't the time when they

:20:43.:20:47.

asked for a second referendum. Talk us through when the time is, then.

:20:48.:20:52.

The Prime Minister has put this on two points of principle. You cannot

:20:53.:20:56.

revisit this question about the constitutional future of Scotland

:20:57.:20:59.

when people in Scotland don't know what Brexit is going to look like.

:21:00.:21:04.

When with that be? You've got to be able to see what the Brexit deal is

:21:05.:21:08.

that's coming out of Brussels brought back to the UK, and also the

:21:09.:21:11.

attendant power was passed on from there. Does that mean in two years?

:21:12.:21:17.

I'm trying to get a sense of how one that would be. The second principle

:21:18.:21:21.

is important too and very important for the rest of the UK audience.

:21:22.:21:29.

People from the SNP are espousing a nationalist vision. The second thing

:21:30.:21:34.

is that people of Scotland don't want to revisit this question.

:21:35.:21:37.

They've been asked time and time again, you can't drag people back to

:21:38.:21:42.

a decision they have already made. She said now isn't the time and you

:21:43.:21:47.

said we need the Brexit negotiations to take place. If that process two

:21:48.:21:54.

years, is it until 2019, is it the years after that? I'm trying to work

:21:55.:21:59.

out when it would be. It's when we see what the Brexit deal looks like

:22:00.:22:03.

and how those attendant powers, some of which will go to the Welsh

:22:04.:22:07.

assembly, to Northern Ireland and Scotland... So it would be crazy to

:22:08.:22:10.

rule it out for the whole Parliament? It's not been pinned to

:22:11.:22:14.

a date. Nicola Sturgeon wants to pin it to a date because she is

:22:15.:22:18.

desperate to push this through on a political issue. The Prime Minister

:22:19.:22:21.

is talking about a point of principle. The people of Scotland

:22:22.:22:24.

have to know what they are being asked to vote on. They've got to

:22:25.:22:28.

want to be dragged back to what was a very divisive vote in Scotland.

:22:29.:22:32.

The people of Scotland don't want to be dragged back there. They were

:22:33.:22:36.

promised that it would last for a generation and now Nicola Sturgeon

:22:37.:22:37.

is going back on that. Thank you. The Brexit vote, we know, has thrown

:22:38.:22:40.

party loyalties wide open, and one of the hardest tasks

:22:41.:22:43.

for the electorate this time round will be working out

:22:44.:22:45.

which allegiance comes first. Many Labour heartlands of the North

:22:46.:22:47.

emerged as Brexit strongholds. So does that mean they will swing

:22:48.:22:50.

behind the Tories this time around? David Grossman is in

:22:51.:22:53.

Manchester to ask them. Seats that were once known as simply

:22:54.:23:05.

Labour or Conservative, now have an extra, and who knows,

:23:06.:23:07.

perhaps overriding designation. Whether they voted

:23:08.:23:10.

for Brexit or not. This creates a challenge

:23:11.:23:16.

for all the parties, no doubt. Labour's problem is that it has

:23:17.:23:21.

to try to hang on to seats like this, Manchester Withington,

:23:22.:23:29.

where voters opted overwhelmingly At the same time as trying to pick

:23:30.:23:31.

up votes in places like this, Pendle in Lancashire,

:23:32.:23:39.

where the electorate Because a message that plays well

:23:40.:23:40.

in a place like this is likely to turn voters off

:23:41.:23:46.

in places like this. IN UNISON: It's almost as if Labour

:23:47.:23:51.

needs to be two parties. In our first past the post electoral

:23:52.:23:57.

system, in order to win an electoral majority they have to put together

:23:58.:24:01.

a coalition that includes older, socially conservative

:24:02.:24:04.

blue-collar voters. The kind of voters who voted

:24:05.:24:07.

for Brexit, who are not very With younger, ethnically diverse,

:24:08.:24:10.

socially liberal university graduates, the so-called

:24:11.:24:15.

metropolitan liberal elite, who dominate in places

:24:16.:24:18.

like London and Manchester, where Labour do very well,

:24:19.:24:20.

and dominate the Labour They need both of

:24:21.:24:22.

those groups to win. And the problem is, what those two

:24:23.:24:31.

groups want are now polar opposites. If we look at the constituencies

:24:32.:24:34.

who voted either most strongly for Brexit or against Brexit,

:24:35.:24:37.

projections suggest that setting Scotland side,

:24:38.:24:40.

16 of the top 20 most remain voting While 12 of the top 20

:24:41.:24:43.

most leave voting seats In Manchester Withington,

:24:44.:24:46.

remain voters like Ben and Jess say they feel they have little choice

:24:47.:24:52.

in this election. They don't want to vote

:24:53.:24:56.

Lib Dem, they say, just Is Jeremy Corbyn

:24:57.:24:58.

a potential Prime Minister? It's not anything personal

:24:59.:25:06.

against him, I quite like what he stands

:25:07.:25:11.

for and his values. But I think his conduct

:25:12.:25:13.

through Brexit is disappointing. He never showed any

:25:14.:25:16.

great leadership. Having personal values is one thing,

:25:17.:25:20.

but you've got to show that you are capable of delivering

:25:21.:25:23.

something beneficial for people as a result of those,

:25:24.:25:26.

and I'm not really convinced he's It's a shame, because I think

:25:27.:25:29.

locally there's a lot But, on a national scale,

:25:30.:25:34.

I think it just looks About 35 miles north of Manchester

:25:35.:25:45.

is the seat of Pendle, currently Conservative

:25:46.:25:55.

but previously Labour, and one of the seats the party

:25:56.:25:59.

has to win if it wants Amongst its mainly Brexit voting

:26:00.:26:02.

residents, I could find little enthusiasm for the current Labour

:26:03.:26:13.

Party. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn has

:26:14.:26:14.

anything to say that will attract traditional Labour voters

:26:15.:26:17.

who voted for Brexit? Lots of voters round

:26:18.:26:19.

here voted for Brexit. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn

:26:20.:26:21.

will, actually, no. I don't think his is a strong

:26:22.:26:26.

enough leadership... I just feel that there's a lot

:26:27.:26:30.

of disillusionment at the moment in the Labour Party,

:26:31.:26:36.

even in the strongholds Perhaps maybe that people

:26:37.:26:38.

are sick of the same, the same, the same,

:26:39.:26:50.

but at the moment we don't feel And obviously, a non-Tory area,

:26:51.:26:53.

as we are, we ain't going to vote for those, but what else have we got

:26:54.:27:10.

in front of us? In a sense, the seeds of this

:27:11.:27:13.

problem were sown by Tony Blair. In his early days as Labour leader,

:27:14.:27:16.

he boasted in an interview with me about how he was changing his party,

:27:17.:27:19.

even in traditional Labour areas The critical thing that has

:27:20.:27:22.

happened is that the whole structure and culture

:27:23.:27:26.

of the party has changed. You look at these delegates that

:27:27.:27:28.

are coming, indeed from places like the north-west,

:27:29.:27:30.

you look at these delegates, they're different, they're young,

:27:31.:27:32.

they're go ahead, they've got This is not the Labour Party

:27:33.:27:35.

living in the past, this is the Labour Party

:27:36.:27:38.

addressing the future. The Blair gamble back in the 1990s

:27:39.:27:40.

was we can move Labour aggressively to the centre ground,

:27:41.:27:43.

focus on the middle-class voter and put together a coalition of

:27:44.:27:45.

partisan tribal traditional Labour voters and middle-class

:27:46.:27:48.

swing voters who just want good management,

:27:49.:27:49.

good government, because the first group, the partisan tribal

:27:50.:27:52.

Labour voters haven't got anywhere else to go, so we can hold

:27:53.:27:55.

onto them, even if we don't particularly cater to what they're

:27:56.:27:58.

asking for, don't particularly give That's the bill that's come due now,

:27:59.:28:02.

because now the Labour Party is turning round to these voters

:28:03.:28:08.

and saying, you need to stay loyal with us

:28:09.:28:10.

in these difficult times, and they're saying,

:28:11.:28:12.

well, why should we? Labour is trying hard to unite

:28:13.:28:15.

its disparate tribes by focusing on what they mostly agree

:28:16.:28:20.

on: on the economy, But since Theresa May

:28:21.:28:22.

is working equally hard to try to define this election as about

:28:23.:28:26.

Brexit and about leadership, Labour is not the only party having

:28:27.:28:29.

to walk a Brexit tightrope. Lib Dems are looking for a revival

:28:30.:28:39.

fuelled by Remainers. But many of their former

:28:40.:28:41.

heartlands were solidly Will they welcome back

:28:42.:28:43.

the Yellow Ribbon? James Clayton went to test

:28:44.:28:47.

the waters of the South West. Tranquil, historic, generally

:28:48.:28:54.

all-round lovely Bath. The setting of a Lib

:28:55.:29:07.

Dem massacre in 2015. What happened here shocked even

:29:08.:29:14.

the most pessimistic of Lib Dems. They lost nearly 1-in-2

:29:15.:29:17.

of their voters here, letting It was a result that

:29:18.:29:19.

was mirrored in much of the south-west,

:29:20.:29:31.

but now - revenge. Theresa May's announcement yesterday

:29:32.:29:32.

is a chance for the Lib Dems to retake what they believe

:29:33.:29:35.

is their territory. Shortly after Theresa May's

:29:36.:29:38.

announcement, I went They claim to have already had

:29:39.:29:40.

23 new members since Fantastic, I'll give you a call

:29:41.:29:46.

in the next couple of days. That was someone who is

:29:47.:29:50.

looking to get involved Just a spontaneous phone call,

:29:51.:29:55.

which we've been fielding all day. To be fair, when you said you've

:29:56.:30:02.

been getting lots of phone calls, we've been here for three or four

:30:03.:30:08.

minutes, and you've just got another This is Operation Phoenix,

:30:09.:30:11.

and these are its foot soldiers. What's your big strategy for winning

:30:12.:30:18.

this election, or can you not say? The whole Brexit issue is getting

:30:19.:30:21.

people politically motivated, that weren't previously

:30:22.:30:31.

in political parties. Until six months ago,

:30:32.:30:35.

I hadn't joined a political And it was Theresa May's speech

:30:36.:30:40.

about citizens of the world being citizens of nowhere that

:30:41.:30:44.

prompted me to go out that very day This is a fantastic

:30:45.:30:47.

chance for the Lib Dems, because the Lib Dems are one

:30:48.:30:51.

of the few parties who are actually And there are so many

:30:52.:30:54.

people now who are leaving the parties because they are

:30:55.:30:57.

so depressed, demoralised. Depressed and demoralised maybe,

:30:58.:30:59.

but in some areas Brexit gives Liberal Democrats reckon they've got

:31:00.:31:05.

a pretty good chance of taking south-western seats,

:31:06.:31:16.

like this one here in Bath. One of the reasons for

:31:17.:31:18.

that is because Bath voted Now the problem with that, is that

:31:19.:31:20.

most of the south-western seats they want to take off

:31:21.:31:31.

the Tories, they voted out. Just down the road is

:31:32.:31:34.

the constituency of Wells. It's one of a glut of more

:31:35.:31:38.

traditional rural seats that the Liberal Democrats lost

:31:39.:31:42.

to the Conservatives in 2015, and it poses a problem

:31:43.:31:46.

for Operation Phoenix. If you look at the referendum

:31:47.:31:50.

result, 69% of people in Bath voted to remain,

:31:51.:31:53.

but unfortunately for the Lib Dems, that's not replicated

:31:54.:31:57.

across the south-west. Places like Taunton Deane,

:31:58.:32:00.

Yeovil and here in Wells voted out. So, if the Liberal Democrats think

:32:01.:32:05.

they can use this election as a second referendum on Brexit,

:32:06.:32:10.

the south-west might not be So you've never voted

:32:11.:32:12.

Conservative before? I was Liberal Democrat,

:32:13.:32:17.

and I'm only voting now because of the situation we are in,

:32:18.:32:23.

to make sure she gets in and gets through with Brexit,

:32:24.:32:27.

because I voted for Brexit. So you voted Liberal

:32:28.:32:29.

Democrat in 2015? And now you're going to vote

:32:30.:32:30.

Conservative in 2017? I voted Conservative

:32:31.:32:35.

at the last election, but I was Lib Dem before that,

:32:36.:32:41.

and I object to being told that I'm an idiot and I don't

:32:42.:32:49.

know my own mind, and I cannot understand an argument

:32:50.:32:52.

one way or the other. The EU referendum has

:32:53.:32:55.

reset the political It may well be that their best

:32:56.:32:58.

chance of gains are in the more affluent areas of southern England,

:32:59.:33:09.

which includes Bath, rather than the rump

:33:10.:33:11.

of Eurosceptic south-west. Back in Bath, I caught up

:33:12.:33:13.

with the president of the local There's only one party who says

:33:14.:33:16.

they are going to reverse that, and that's the Liberal Democrats,

:33:17.:33:30.

not the Conservative Party. Well, that's quite

:33:31.:33:34.

a staggering thought. I don't know how you

:33:35.:33:37.

reverse Article 50. I don't think there's

:33:38.:33:41.

an Article 51a. Have you spoken to people

:33:42.:33:43.

who voted Remain? A lot of them don't really care

:33:44.:33:46.

about the intricacies, they just want to vote for a party

:33:47.:33:48.

that reflects their views on Europe. They may want that, but it's no

:33:49.:33:52.

longer on the table. By calling this election,

:33:53.:34:00.

Theresa May senses a countrywide opportunity to take seats off Labour

:34:01.:34:06.

and win a sizeable majority. But that calculation only

:34:07.:34:09.

works if she can hold Bath may well be the yardstick

:34:10.:34:11.

by which the PM's decision to go Former Lib Dem leader

:34:12.:34:19.

and Deputy Prime Minister Nick That is the tricky bit, isn't it,

:34:20.:34:36.

Nick Clegg? The woman in that piece we just heard saying loved Brexit,

:34:37.:34:42.

might have been Lib Dems, now if they hear you talking about the EU,

:34:43.:34:45.

campaigning on that at all, they will think they are not your people

:34:46.:34:49.

any more? We will see in the next seven weeks. The thing about Brexit,

:34:50.:34:53.

it's not just really about whether you voted this way or that way last

:34:54.:34:58.

June. It's become a kind of vortex, the prism through which everything

:34:59.:35:02.

else is now refracted in British politics. I will give you an

:35:03.:35:04.

example, those two ladies, I don't know the modestly but I expect

:35:05.:35:28.

I'll be pretty concerned that this Conservative government there is a

:35:29.:35:30.

funding crisis in the NHS, terrible crisis in social care that is not

:35:31.:35:33.

being addressed and huge cuts to the school system. I think one of the

:35:34.:35:35.

things we will be explaining to them is, whatever you voted in the Brexit

:35:36.:35:38.

referendum, having such a Brexit obsessed government means they are

:35:39.:35:40.

not doing their day job, not providing the decent public services

:35:41.:35:42.

people want. That's part of the problem. In terms of the way you

:35:43.:35:45.

campaign, you will not be banging on about Europe? You won't actually

:35:46.:35:47.

mention Europe? I talk about it at the drop of a hat and I will

:35:48.:35:50.

continue to. Even in the south-west? You can't hide from people the facts

:35:51.:35:53.

this general election has been triggered by the Prime Minister the

:35:54.:35:57.

cynical opportunistic reasons, to capitalise on the weakness of her

:35:58.:36:03.

opponent, Jeremy Gubin, and to get an election in before the bad news

:36:04.:36:07.

of Brexit comes. -- Jeremy Corbyn. Whatever people choose to talk

:36:08.:36:10.

about, Brexit will be the dominant theme. You can't hide away from

:36:11.:36:13.

that. But the idea you can't talk about the way in which Brexit,

:36:14.:36:17.

ironically enough, means the oxygen is being sucked away from other

:36:18.:36:22.

things that people passionately care about, schools, hospitals, social

:36:23.:36:25.

care... Will be things are linked and should be discussed. Do you

:36:26.:36:37.

think you can repair the damage done to you all you that you did yourself

:36:38.:36:40.

last time round? Don't ask me, I'm not objective. I think it's a

:36:41.:36:42.

nonsense is this idea that the coalition is the ball and chain...

:36:43.:36:45.

Countless people who now say... I'm not talking about the coalition but

:36:46.:36:47.

the fact you lost a lot of seats, did you think you can win them back?

:36:48.:36:51.

We can't do much worse than we did at the last election! Can you double

:36:52.:36:54.

it? I'm not a soothsayer... You don't have to be. We will do far

:36:55.:37:01.

better than last time. I suspect, it's just an instant, we will do

:37:02.:37:05.

better than people expect for right now. Why? Because there is a great

:37:06.:37:11.

big gap in this election campaign. Give us a ballpark, 13, 14? It's not

:37:12.:37:17.

game of bingo. You Applebee 's MPs, or waiting in the wings. -- you have

:37:18.:37:24.

all these MPs. I don't think it'll be interesting to your viewers what

:37:25.:37:27.

number I plucked out of thin air. That is not issue. What are your

:37:28.:37:32.

expectations Montero that we will do clearly much better than we did last

:37:33.:37:36.

time, we can't do much worse. More than that, we will hopefully with a

:37:37.:37:40.

sizeable Parliamentary party, provide the effective... Lead the

:37:41.:37:48.

opposition against this damaging had Brexit. Which Theresa May wants to

:37:49.:37:53.

garner a landslide majority. If it sizeable enough, could it go into

:37:54.:37:57.

government again? Would you work with Labour? There is absolutely no

:37:58.:38:03.

realistic prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Are you

:38:04.:38:05.

ruling out? It's just not going to happen. Can I surprise you? Let me

:38:06.:38:12.

be very candid with you. I think we should be very plain speaking in

:38:13.:38:15.

this campaign, because I think most people know what's going to happen

:38:16.:38:19.

at the end of this process. Theresa May will be Prime Minister on June

:38:20.:38:23.

nine. I think most people realise there is almost a foregone

:38:24.:38:27.

conclusion that conservatives will remain the party of government. The

:38:28.:38:30.

question then becomes, what kind of majority they have, what kind of

:38:31.:38:34.

mandate to Jake Lehmann what do they do for the next five years? They

:38:35.:38:40.

seem to expect opposition should be extinguished and they can oppose...

:38:41.:38:45.

And therefore, back to your question, when I was a leader in

:38:46.:38:52.

2010, the key test for the Liberal Democrats was how could we step up

:38:53.:38:55.

to the plate to provide responsible government? That might happen again.

:38:56.:39:00.

No. It's how we provide effective opposition. It would not be

:39:01.:39:05.

inconceivable to work with the Conservatives? No way, get Tim on

:39:06.:39:10.

the programme and asking, he's the leader. There is no way the Liberal

:39:11.:39:15.

Democrats are going to install Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of this

:39:16.:39:19.

country nor are we going to sustain Theresa May in power to inflict on

:39:20.:39:24.

the a self harming, economically speaking, self harming had Brexit

:39:25.:39:28.

that nobody voted for last year. We don't have much time. Opposition

:39:29.:39:33.

is not something to be dismissed. Much though I enjoyed my time in

:39:34.:39:36.

government and felt we did a good job, I value, that's one of the

:39:37.:39:40.

reasons I'm standing as a candidate, I value an effective opposition in a

:39:41.:39:43.

healthy democracy. We don't have that at the moment because Labour

:39:44.:39:48.

has collapsed. This is about Tim Farron. He got himself into some hot

:39:49.:39:57.

water defining where liberal beliefs and Christian beliefs coincide. Yes,

:39:58.:40:00.

he said homosexuality is not a sin, but is he... Is he allowed to be a

:40:01.:40:05.

Christian thinker and a liberal? At the moment it seems like he's been

:40:06.:40:09.

put on the spot and being told to choose between his Christian

:40:10.:40:13.

beliefs, what he thinks of homosexuality, in the privacy of his

:40:14.:40:18.

mind, and his position as the Lib Dem leader? I think you've said it.

:40:19.:40:22.

It's the privacy of his faith, which he should be able to hold and hold

:40:23.:40:27.

dearly, in the private way that many people hold faith to themselves, or

:40:28.:40:34.

indeed don't at all. What he does as a legislator and politician, that is

:40:35.:40:38.

legitimate... He wasn't really able to say that. He had to come out

:40:39.:40:44.

today and say... I'm just saying to you my view on politicians and their

:40:45.:40:47.

faith and how it affects their public duties, you should judge them

:40:48.:40:50.

not by what their private faith is but what their public actions. As

:40:51.:40:56.

you know you voted time and time again, alongside all other Liberal

:40:57.:41:02.

Democrats, in of anti-discrimination measures, equal marriage. Judging by

:41:03.:41:06.

his actions as an MP, not by the somewhat sort of sanctimonious

:41:07.:41:10.

judgments about his own private faith. His own private faith is his.

:41:11.:41:15.

Let him have that, let him have that freedom and privacy of faith but

:41:16.:41:18.

also judging by his actions as a legislator, which are impeccably

:41:19.:41:24.

liberal ones. Parting thought for George Osborne, as he steps down,

:41:25.:41:28.

the man who masterminded your decapitation? Good luck to him. I

:41:29.:41:34.

think it's quite telling, however much I staunchly disagreed with

:41:35.:41:40.

George Osborne over many years, he is a particular conservative, a

:41:41.:41:44.

metropolitan turn of mind, he believes in globalisation, he

:41:45.:41:48.

believes in a cosmopolitan view of the world. If the Conservative Party

:41:49.:41:53.

can't retake the ball like that, whatever you think, like or dislike

:41:54.:41:57.

George Osborne, his a formidable figure in the Conservative Party, if

:41:58.:42:00.

they can't keep people like that it becomes more narrow and sect like

:42:01.:42:04.

and that won't serve the Conservative Party well in the long

:42:05.:42:10.

run. Nick Clegg, thank you. That is all we have time for tonight. Hirst

:42:11.:42:16.

is back tomorrow. Good night. -- Kirsty is back tomorrow.

:42:17.:42:17.

Hello. Let's see what the weather has in store for the rest of the

:42:18.:42:30.

week. If anything, turning a little warmer across southern

:42:31.:42:31.