Browse content similar to 19/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Talking Tory - what direction will Theresa May's election | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
We've heard so little of her plans on spending, defence, | :00:00. | :00:12. | |
austerity and foreign aid - what goes; what stays? | :00:13. | :00:18. | |
We talk to those who knew the last manifesto inside out. | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
And to the Tory leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson. | :00:24. | :00:26. | |
The Scottish Conservatives always put the union first, | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
That's why whether you're a tactical voter, and I'm not | :00:29. | :00:34. | |
necessarily someone who expounds that, but if you're | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
a principled voter, your vote, if you don't want the SNP, | :00:37. | :00:38. | |
if you don't want to encourage their tunnel vision | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
to break up Britain, is to vote for the | :00:42. | :00:43. | |
What do you do if you're a Labour voting Brexiteer who likes this | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
And non-Tory area as we are, we're not going to vote for those, but who | :00:48. | :00:59. | |
else have we got in front of us? And how do Lib Dems claw back | :01:00. | :01:04. | |
the South West that went Just two years ago this month, David | :01:05. | :01:07. | |
Cameron's Conservative manifesto was promising a Brighter, | :01:08. | :01:19. | |
More Secure Future. An irony presumably not | :01:20. | :01:22. | |
lost on the former PM - What will she chose | :01:23. | :01:24. | |
to promise the nation? Brexit determined her reign, | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
Brexit has dominated it so far. But what about all the other stuff | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
that decides how we vote? Spending plans, schools, | :01:34. | :01:36. | |
foreign aid and defence. What will she set out to achieve - | :01:37. | :01:41. | |
and what may trip her up Our political editor Nick Watt | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
has been having a look, Nick, let's just focus | :01:45. | :01:48. | |
on the aid budget. There is something of a battle going | :01:49. | :02:00. | |
on at senior levels of the Conservative Party. 0.7% pledge of | :02:01. | :02:05. | |
gross national income that should be spent on overseas aid. There are | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
senior figures who are saying that should be rolled in with a 3% of GDP | :02:09. | :02:13. | |
that is spent on defence. The much smaller amount spent on issue | :02:14. | :02:18. | |
national trade, and that should create an overarching security | :02:19. | :02:22. | |
budget that would come to around 3% of GDP. Now, that would run into | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
trouble potentially with the official development assistance | :02:28. | :02:32. | |
rules which govern what you can define as international aid | :02:33. | :02:36. | |
spending. What kind of resistance is she getting on this? I think it's | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
fair to say the International Development Secretary will be keen | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
to keep the ring fenced budget. She believes it benefits developing | :02:46. | :02:47. | |
countries and has a benefit to the UK, because it helps to create a | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
much more stable and safer world. But also its defenders believe they | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
have some powerful arguments, some of which are being heard | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
sympathetically at senior levels. In the first place there is a feeling | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
that, would you potentially be sending a signal that the UK at the | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
time of Brexit is stepping back from the wider world? That's being heard | :03:09. | :03:10. | |
sympathetically. The second one is, the biggest threat to | :03:11. | :03:25. | |
the Conservatives in this general election will be from the Liberal | :03:26. | :03:27. | |
Democrats. Do you want to be handing them a gift? With these issues in | :03:28. | :03:30. | |
mind we thought today we would look at the approach Theresa May may | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
adopt in those non-Brexit issues. The architects of David Cameron's | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
modernisation project always feared it could go up in a puff of smoke. | :03:39. | :03:45. | |
Their nemesis Theresa May now has a chance to remodel the Conservative | :03:46. | :03:50. | |
offer for the people she wants to champion, ordinary working families. | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
Her election manifesto will give the Prime Minister the opportunity to | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
jump and mend or perhaps build on some of David Cameron's signature | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
themes. One of his former advisers hoped she seizes her chance. She has | :04:05. | :04:08. | |
this opportunity to reset the whole social settlement of our country, | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
and with an opposition in such disarray, the way is open for her to | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
introduce a really radical reforms. I think we're in 1945 moment. | :04:17. | :04:24. | |
There's a huge international event happening, but behind the scenes in | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
1945 they were preparing for the welfare state. I would like to see | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
Theresa May Bibi Glenn Catley of our time. Behind the scenes at | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
Westminster there is something of a pre-manifesto battle going on as | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
ministers seek to promote cherished ideas and, in some cases, to grab | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
territory from rival colleagues. There is the sound of sniping in the | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
air. Newsnight understands there is a | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
push in Whitehall to change David Cameron's landmark commitment to | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
spend 0.7% of gross national income on overseas aid. There are calls to | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
bundle this up with defence spending into one overarching budget, a move | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
that being resisted by the intervention International | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
Development Secretary. Priti Patel has a reputation as a right-wing aid | :05:13. | :05:19. | |
sceptic but she believes the ring fenced aid budget delivers enormous | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
benefits to developing countries. That is a risk, that you lose if you | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
remove that target, you lose all the goodwill that comes from a | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
significant amount of the population that does actually believe in our | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
overseas aid spending. We always recognised and one of the ways we | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
justify the overseas spending as it is part of our soft power and is | :05:41. | :05:45. | |
also part of our defence, because if we help poor countries and | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
developing nations to grow and prosper economically, then we can | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
trade with them and partner them. One of the most expensive | :05:55. | :05:57. | |
commitments made by David Cameron was the so-called pension triple | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
lock, the pledge that the state pension rises by at least 2.5% or | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
inflation or average earnings if they are higher. Newsnight | :06:08. | :06:11. | |
understands ministers are taking a hard look at this commitment and no | :06:12. | :06:15. | |
decisions have been taken. I don't think it sustainable for | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
long and it's had its effect. We've seen pensioner poverty falling. | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
Pensioner incomes are higher than disposable incomes for working age | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
families. The work of the triple lock is coming to an end. We do need | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
to rebalance the fiscal settlement towards younger people. We need to | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
cut costs overall, I'm afraid, still, painful though that is. But | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
where there is public spending changes to be made, I'd like to see | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
a greater investment in younger people. That will ultimately bring | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
the costs down in the future. I think there is an unfairness in the | :06:50. | :06:52. | |
current measure and we need to rebalance a little. | :06:53. | :06:57. | |
David Cameron unleashed a schools revolution with the creation of a | :06:58. | :07:01. | |
new generation of free schools, but there was one line he never crossed, | :07:02. | :07:06. | |
selection by academic ability. Theresa May will put her plans | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
Manaus grammar schools in the manifesto but Newsnight understands | :07:13. | :07:14. | |
this will be modest. The Prime Minister sees the creation of just | :07:15. | :07:21. | |
20 new grammars. A wounded Philip Hammond will adopt | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
a highly cautious approach as he tries to stabilise the public | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
finances. Newsnight understands that under current thinking of the | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
manifesto will avoid making major commitments on the big ticket item | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
of social care ahead of the publication of a Green paper later | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
this year. This government isn't going to make | :07:41. | :07:43. | |
a dramatic breach with the last one, in terms of the overall spending. | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
The fact is we still have a significant Budget deficit, we still | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
have a national debt that needs to be paid down and the right thing to | :07:52. | :07:55. | |
do for the long-term, for the next generation, for the people who will | :07:56. | :07:58. | |
be growing up after Brexit is to get our national accounts into balance. | :07:59. | :08:04. | |
The curtain finally fell on the Cameron project today when George | :08:05. | :08:06. | |
Osborne announced he would take his leave of Parliament. The baton has | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
passed to an older and very different generation of | :08:12. | :08:19. | |
conservatives. Lots to chew over. How far from the Cameron manifesto | :08:20. | :08:21. | |
is Theresa May likely to move? Camilla Cavendish was Head | :08:22. | :08:23. | |
of Policy for David Cameron, Andrew Mitchell was | :08:24. | :08:25. | |
the International Development Lovely to have you both here. Let's | :08:26. | :08:39. | |
go through them. This 0.7% which has been so strongly ring fenced, and | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
you will remember it well, it under threat? Should it be negotiable now? | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
I hope not and I don't think so. It wasn't David Cameron who first | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
committed the Conservative Party to the 0.7, it was Michael Howard when | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
he was leader. Not exactly a limp wristed lefty. It is a core promise | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
of the Conservative Party. I very much hope it will be retrained. Of | :09:01. | :09:05. | |
course it is also the law of the land now, we passed as legislation | :09:06. | :09:10. | |
to try and take it out of party politics. It could be bundled, | :09:11. | :09:14. | |
remain the same? It can't actually, it's not just the money but the | :09:15. | :09:18. | |
rules under which it is spent. The pooled funds on defence diplomacy | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
and development, within that ring fence there is another ring fence | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
that protects the development budget. If you take away the rules | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
will be plundered by other departments. Can we get through this | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
one? My experience is that is what happens. It is under threat, Andrew, | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
as you know. The UK is the second largest aid donor in the world. A | :09:42. | :09:44. | |
lot of people feel is too much. You and I both know when you're trying | :09:45. | :09:53. | |
to go into very, very poor countries and deal with sometimes very corrupt | :09:54. | :09:55. | |
governments, some of that money is wasted. That is a fact. There is a | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
decision to be made if we want to continue at this level or not. I | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
think they may go for trying to redefine the rules, because if you | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
had a bit more flexibility in the rules, you would be able to use it | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
in a different way, have the military for example offering | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
humanitarian assistance. There are ring fences within ring fences, it's | :10:16. | :10:20. | |
very frustrating for government in terms of meeting the objectives. You | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
can use the military or delivering humanitarian aid and it comes off | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
the disappeared budget. We need to be very per about this. The rules | :10:30. | :10:35. | |
are set why the OECD. You have to persuade 33 countries to change | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
those rules and it won't happen. You speak from experience in the field | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
and you have worked right inside number ten. Does it feel to you like | :10:42. | :10:47. | |
it is tied? I've always been concerned is too high and I I'm | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
concerned now because we are still running a deficit and because of | :10:52. | :10:54. | |
Brexit, we have a Conservative government that is no longer | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
committed to producing a surplus by 2020, which Cameron and Osborne | :11:00. | :11:02. | |
were, because we don't know what economic perils lie ahead. I'm | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
concerned it is too high. It would be popular with the country she cut | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
this, at least in your party? We promised and is the law of the land | :11:12. | :11:13. | |
that we would spend what is a relatively small amount of public | :11:14. | :11:20. | |
expenditure on the poorest people in the world. That is in tune with the | :11:21. | :11:23. | |
people of Britain. I would be surprised in a general election if | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
we were to go back on our word, that we gave, that we would allocate 0.7% | :11:27. | :11:33. | |
of GDP to helping the neediest. She has to be outward looking at this | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
point. The bigger question, you have to roll everything together and say | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
what this manifesto must not be is inward looking little England. -- | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
that will bring. There is a strong argument for retaining the 0.7%, but | :11:47. | :11:51. | |
on any absolute financial basis, I'm afraid it should be looked at. | :11:52. | :11:55. | |
Pushed around by tabloid newspaper bosses... Around the world Britain | :11:56. | :12:01. | |
is lauded and deeply respected for the lives we are changing, the | :12:02. | :12:04. | |
millions of lives we are saving as a result of this budget. Yet in | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
Britain it receives very hostile treatment from elements within the | :12:10. | :12:15. | |
press. It's never about... Of course it's about what you achieved. The | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
way in which the coalition refashion development was to make sure we | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
focused on results the money is achieving. Moving onto the grammar | :12:27. | :12:34. | |
schools, such a who are about that, it comes down to 20. What does it | :12:35. | :12:41. | |
say, she is rowing back? If you read the small print when she announces | :12:42. | :12:44. | |
that was always going to be about 20 schools. She is treading very | :12:45. | :12:47. | |
carefully. It is something she obviously feels very passionate | :12:48. | :12:50. | |
about. She was a grammar school girl herself. She believes in this very | :12:51. | :12:56. | |
small experiment, which is, I think, a signal to the Tory rank and file | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
and people who would like to see more selective education. I think | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
there is a much bigger issue, which is technical education. If she | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
really cares about, she's talked a lot about it, I think we need to | :13:09. | :13:13. | |
look much more closely at what we are investing in. Technical | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
education and perhaps moving some of the money away from universities and | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
towards vocation. There is a perception is a more old-fashioned | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
conservatism she's going for here, not progressive so much but | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
something that reminds people of the good things of the past. I don't | :13:28. | :13:34. | |
agree with that. Nick's report mentioned 20 schools which I think | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
is right. I remember in John Major's government after the 92 election, we | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
had a policy of a grammar school in every town and none were built or | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
opened at that time. Is 20 is a modest start but I think is the | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
right way to implement this policy. What about triple lock? Have | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
pensioners had their heyday? Will it get harder? I think triple lock is | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
almost certain to go. The only question is what is replaced with. | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
The easiest thing would be to go to double locks, which simply means you | :14:04. | :14:12. | |
would index to inflation, which is a very safe thing to do politically | :14:13. | :14:14. | |
because interest rates are low, inflation is low. Does that mean | :14:15. | :14:17. | |
they end up with less money? Not in the short term. In the long-term, | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
yes, absolutely. Older voters, the core of the Conservative Party, | :14:22. | :14:24. | |
which is why there was a great deal of worry about this. We've basically | :14:25. | :14:28. | |
seen younger people unable to get on the housing ladder, having pay for | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
university and all sorts of debts... I think it's what Danny Kruger said | :14:33. | :14:38. | |
in the report. It has had the impact we wanted it to her. Now | :14:39. | :14:42. | |
intergenerational equity means we have to change it. And focused | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
particularly, I think, on issues where the younger generation have | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
lost out. Housing is probably the most significant one. Thank you | :14:52. | :14:52. | |
both. Well, there is already a sense | :14:53. | :14:55. | |
of deja vu with elements Yesterday, Theresa May warned | :14:56. | :14:58. | |
about the prospect of a Labour government propped up | :14:59. | :15:01. | |
by the Scottish National Party - a rerun of David Cameron's | :15:02. | :15:04. | |
warning in 2015. Today, Nicola Sturgeon declared | :15:05. | :15:06. | |
she would not rule out what she preferred to call | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
a progressive alliance with Greens, Lib Dems and Labour in government - | :15:10. | :15:12. | |
all the parties banding in together Let me say this very clear | :15:13. | :15:15. | |
and straightforwardly... If the Parliamentary arithmetic lent | :15:16. | :15:21. | |
itself to the SNP being part of a progressive alliance that | :15:22. | :15:25. | |
would keep the Tories out of government, then the SNP | :15:26. | :15:28. | |
would seek to be part of that, Well, one of the Tories' biggest | :15:29. | :15:31. | |
beasts is their leader She was also one of the most vocal | :15:32. | :15:42. | |
opponents to Brexit last year. I spoke to her just | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
before we came on air. I asked her why she thought prounion | :15:47. | :15:54. | |
voters were supportive of other parties should vote Conservative. | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
The Scottish Conservatives always put the union first. That's what | :15:59. | :16:02. | |
people know. That's why whether you are a tactical voter or a principal | :16:03. | :16:08. | |
voter, your vote, if you don't want the SNP or to encourage their tunnel | :16:09. | :16:13. | |
vision to break up Britain, is to vote for the Scottish Conservatives. | :16:14. | :16:16. | |
You seem today Nicola Sturgeon saying she would happily get into | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
bed with Jeremy Corbyn and prop him up and make him Prime Minister. I | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
know why. Jeremy Corbyn doesn't care about the union. During the | :16:26. | :16:28. | |
referendum campaign he didn't come to Scotland once. When he was lost | :16:29. | :16:33. | |
in Scotland he said he was fine with there being another independence | :16:34. | :16:39. | |
referendum. If you care about the United Kingdom in Scotland, you know | :16:40. | :16:42. | |
your vote should be for the Scottish Conservatives. You are one of the | :16:43. | :16:49. | |
most admired, vocal, visible faces of the Remain Campaign. It must be | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
so hard for you to have to sell a message of hard Brexit to Scotland. | :16:55. | :16:57. | |
If you look at what the Prime Minister said in her speech, a lot | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
of the things she was talking about had been asked for from the Scottish | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
Government. Things like workers' rights, things like closer | :17:07. | :17:11. | |
co-operation on security. Things like free trade. I don't remember | :17:12. | :17:16. | |
her threatening about co-operation on security if it didn't work. | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
There's clearly a huge amount we put into that. One thing the Prime | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
Minister did say, and I'm sure this got at Nicola Sturgeon's knows, that | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
she wants the country to come out of Brexit more unified. I'm sure of the | :17:30. | :17:33. | |
nationalist she doesn't want that let's also say this. In Scotland, | :17:34. | :17:39. | |
whether they voted leave or remain, there is an understanding that the | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
UK will be leaving the European Union. We want someone who can get | :17:44. | :17:47. | |
the best deal for us because that will benefit people in Scotland as | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
well as the rest of the UK. In this general election, the choice is to | :17:53. | :17:55. | |
have which prime ministers sitting across the table from 27 other | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
political leaders. Do you want Theresa May with a strong hand, a | :18:00. | :18:03. | |
clear plan, or do you want Jeremy Corbyn, who the vast majority of his | :18:04. | :18:07. | |
party don't think is fit to lead the Labour Party, never mind lead the | :18:08. | :18:12. | |
country. The markets seem to conclude yesterday's announcement | :18:13. | :18:16. | |
would herald a softer Brexit. Do you think that's what it's about? I'm | :18:17. | :18:21. | |
not sure the markets are the best arbiter. But I believe is that a | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
Prime Minister with a stronger majority in the House of Commons has | :18:25. | :18:28. | |
the freedom of movement to be able to make decisions that benefited the | :18:29. | :18:33. | |
whole country. You say freedom of movement. Amber Rudd talked about | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
more compromise with the EU as a result of a larger majority, is that | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
what this is about? I think it gives the prime ministers space to make | :18:42. | :18:44. | |
long-term decisions to the benefit of the whole country. I think it | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
also means it's not having one or two small caucuses, however | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
organised they are in the House of Commons, being able to derail the | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
process, because the majority is so slim. I would encourage people at | :18:58. | :19:01. | |
home who want to give the Prime Minister every latitude to be able | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
to be strong in those negotiations, to sit across from 27 other | :19:06. | :19:09. | |
countries, to fight Britain's Corner, to give her the strength she | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
needs. Otherwise it's Jeremy Corbyn who will be sitting there and I | :19:14. | :19:17. | |
wouldn't trust him to run a bath. There is quite a big debate going on | :19:18. | :19:25. | |
about certain Tory policies, such as the commitment of 0.7% to eight. | :19:26. | :19:29. | |
Does that need to be guaranteed? I am committed to the target. I think | :19:30. | :19:37. | |
international aid not only benefits the countries that receive it but we | :19:38. | :19:43. | |
benefit too. The Prime Minister gave her commitment to that not three | :19:44. | :19:50. | |
weeks ago. There is talk about bundling it with trade, maybe | :19:51. | :19:56. | |
defence. Would that work? I want to make sure we did the best work | :19:57. | :20:00. | |
abroad. I think we have a commitment to 0.7% in aid. I think it takes | :20:01. | :20:06. | |
moral courage to be one of the leading countries that espouses | :20:07. | :20:16. | |
that. Moral cowardice to dilate that presumably? They would have to be a | :20:17. | :20:20. | |
legal process. We know it was enshrined in law at the Parliament. | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
There are a lot of people across the political spectrum who show that | :20:25. | :20:28. | |
particularly at this time, as we are leaving the European Union, we want | :20:29. | :20:31. | |
to show we are good global citizens, but we aren't inward looking, we | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
aren't pulling up the drawbridge, we are getting out there into the | :20:35. | :20:38. | |
world. I think maintaining that commitment shows our commitment to | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
the rest of the world. The SNP were told now isn't the time when they | :20:43. | :20:47. | |
asked for a second referendum. Talk us through when the time is, then. | :20:48. | :20:52. | |
The Prime Minister has put this on two points of principle. You cannot | :20:53. | :20:56. | |
revisit this question about the constitutional future of Scotland | :20:57. | :20:59. | |
when people in Scotland don't know what Brexit is going to look like. | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
When with that be? You've got to be able to see what the Brexit deal is | :21:05. | :21:08. | |
that's coming out of Brussels brought back to the UK, and also the | :21:09. | :21:11. | |
attendant power was passed on from there. Does that mean in two years? | :21:12. | :21:17. | |
I'm trying to get a sense of how one that would be. The second principle | :21:18. | :21:21. | |
is important too and very important for the rest of the UK audience. | :21:22. | :21:29. | |
People from the SNP are espousing a nationalist vision. The second thing | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
is that people of Scotland don't want to revisit this question. | :21:35. | :21:37. | |
They've been asked time and time again, you can't drag people back to | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
a decision they have already made. She said now isn't the time and you | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
said we need the Brexit negotiations to take place. If that process two | :21:48. | :21:54. | |
years, is it until 2019, is it the years after that? I'm trying to work | :21:55. | :21:59. | |
out when it would be. It's when we see what the Brexit deal looks like | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
and how those attendant powers, some of which will go to the Welsh | :22:04. | :22:07. | |
assembly, to Northern Ireland and Scotland... So it would be crazy to | :22:08. | :22:10. | |
rule it out for the whole Parliament? It's not been pinned to | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
a date. Nicola Sturgeon wants to pin it to a date because she is | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
desperate to push this through on a political issue. The Prime Minister | :22:19. | :22:21. | |
is talking about a point of principle. The people of Scotland | :22:22. | :22:24. | |
have to know what they are being asked to vote on. They've got to | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
want to be dragged back to what was a very divisive vote in Scotland. | :22:29. | :22:32. | |
The people of Scotland don't want to be dragged back there. They were | :22:33. | :22:36. | |
promised that it would last for a generation and now Nicola Sturgeon | :22:37. | :22:37. | |
is going back on that. Thank you. The Brexit vote, we know, has thrown | :22:38. | :22:40. | |
party loyalties wide open, and one of the hardest tasks | :22:41. | :22:43. | |
for the electorate this time round will be working out | :22:44. | :22:45. | |
which allegiance comes first. Many Labour heartlands of the North | :22:46. | :22:47. | |
emerged as Brexit strongholds. So does that mean they will swing | :22:48. | :22:50. | |
behind the Tories this time around? David Grossman is in | :22:51. | :22:53. | |
Manchester to ask them. Seats that were once known as simply | :22:54. | :23:05. | |
Labour or Conservative, now have an extra, and who knows, | :23:06. | :23:07. | |
perhaps overriding designation. Whether they voted | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
for Brexit or not. This creates a challenge | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
for all the parties, no doubt. Labour's problem is that it has | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
to try to hang on to seats like this, Manchester Withington, | :23:22. | :23:29. | |
where voters opted overwhelmingly At the same time as trying to pick | :23:30. | :23:31. | |
up votes in places like this, Pendle in Lancashire, | :23:32. | :23:39. | |
where the electorate Because a message that plays well | :23:40. | :23:40. | |
in a place like this is likely to turn voters off | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
in places like this. IN UNISON: It's almost as if Labour | :23:47. | :23:51. | |
needs to be two parties. In our first past the post electoral | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
system, in order to win an electoral majority they have to put together | :23:58. | :24:01. | |
a coalition that includes older, socially conservative | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
blue-collar voters. The kind of voters who voted | :24:05. | :24:07. | |
for Brexit, who are not very With younger, ethnically diverse, | :24:08. | :24:10. | |
socially liberal university graduates, the so-called | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
metropolitan liberal elite, who dominate in places | :24:16. | :24:18. | |
like London and Manchester, where Labour do very well, | :24:19. | :24:20. | |
and dominate the Labour They need both of | :24:21. | :24:22. | |
those groups to win. And the problem is, what those two | :24:23. | :24:31. | |
groups want are now polar opposites. If we look at the constituencies | :24:32. | :24:34. | |
who voted either most strongly for Brexit or against Brexit, | :24:35. | :24:37. | |
projections suggest that setting Scotland side, | :24:38. | :24:40. | |
16 of the top 20 most remain voting While 12 of the top 20 | :24:41. | :24:43. | |
most leave voting seats In Manchester Withington, | :24:44. | :24:46. | |
remain voters like Ben and Jess say they feel they have little choice | :24:47. | :24:52. | |
in this election. They don't want to vote | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
Lib Dem, they say, just Is Jeremy Corbyn | :24:57. | :24:58. | |
a potential Prime Minister? It's not anything personal | :24:59. | :25:06. | |
against him, I quite like what he stands | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
for and his values. But I think his conduct | :25:12. | :25:13. | |
through Brexit is disappointing. He never showed any | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
great leadership. Having personal values is one thing, | :25:17. | :25:20. | |
but you've got to show that you are capable of delivering | :25:21. | :25:23. | |
something beneficial for people as a result of those, | :25:24. | :25:26. | |
and I'm not really convinced he's It's a shame, because I think | :25:27. | :25:29. | |
locally there's a lot But, on a national scale, | :25:30. | :25:34. | |
I think it just looks About 35 miles north of Manchester | :25:35. | :25:45. | |
is the seat of Pendle, currently Conservative | :25:46. | :25:55. | |
but previously Labour, and one of the seats the party | :25:56. | :25:59. | |
has to win if it wants Amongst its mainly Brexit voting | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
residents, I could find little enthusiasm for the current Labour | :26:03. | :26:13. | |
Party. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn has | :26:14. | :26:14. | |
anything to say that will attract traditional Labour voters | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
who voted for Brexit? Lots of voters round | :26:18. | :26:19. | |
here voted for Brexit. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn | :26:20. | :26:21. | |
will, actually, no. I don't think his is a strong | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
enough leadership... I just feel that there's a lot | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
of disillusionment at the moment in the Labour Party, | :26:31. | :26:36. | |
even in the strongholds Perhaps maybe that people | :26:37. | :26:38. | |
are sick of the same, the same, the same, | :26:39. | :26:50. | |
but at the moment we don't feel And obviously, a non-Tory area, | :26:51. | :26:53. | |
as we are, we ain't going to vote for those, but what else have we got | :26:54. | :27:10. | |
in front of us? In a sense, the seeds of this | :27:11. | :27:13. | |
problem were sown by Tony Blair. In his early days as Labour leader, | :27:14. | :27:16. | |
he boasted in an interview with me about how he was changing his party, | :27:17. | :27:19. | |
even in traditional Labour areas The critical thing that has | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
happened is that the whole structure and culture | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
of the party has changed. You look at these delegates that | :27:27. | :27:28. | |
are coming, indeed from places like the north-west, | :27:29. | :27:30. | |
you look at these delegates, they're different, they're young, | :27:31. | :27:32. | |
they're go ahead, they've got This is not the Labour Party | :27:33. | :27:35. | |
living in the past, this is the Labour Party | :27:36. | :27:38. | |
addressing the future. The Blair gamble back in the 1990s | :27:39. | :27:40. | |
was we can move Labour aggressively to the centre ground, | :27:41. | :27:43. | |
focus on the middle-class voter and put together a coalition of | :27:44. | :27:45. | |
partisan tribal traditional Labour voters and middle-class | :27:46. | :27:48. | |
swing voters who just want good management, | :27:49. | :27:49. | |
good government, because the first group, the partisan tribal | :27:50. | :27:52. | |
Labour voters haven't got anywhere else to go, so we can hold | :27:53. | :27:55. | |
onto them, even if we don't particularly cater to what they're | :27:56. | :27:58. | |
asking for, don't particularly give That's the bill that's come due now, | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
because now the Labour Party is turning round to these voters | :28:03. | :28:08. | |
and saying, you need to stay loyal with us | :28:09. | :28:10. | |
in these difficult times, and they're saying, | :28:11. | :28:12. | |
well, why should we? Labour is trying hard to unite | :28:13. | :28:15. | |
its disparate tribes by focusing on what they mostly agree | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
on: on the economy, But since Theresa May | :28:21. | :28:22. | |
is working equally hard to try to define this election as about | :28:23. | :28:26. | |
Brexit and about leadership, Labour is not the only party having | :28:27. | :28:29. | |
to walk a Brexit tightrope. Lib Dems are looking for a revival | :28:30. | :28:39. | |
fuelled by Remainers. But many of their former | :28:40. | :28:41. | |
heartlands were solidly Will they welcome back | :28:42. | :28:43. | |
the Yellow Ribbon? James Clayton went to test | :28:44. | :28:47. | |
the waters of the South West. Tranquil, historic, generally | :28:48. | :28:54. | |
all-round lovely Bath. The setting of a Lib | :28:55. | :29:07. | |
Dem massacre in 2015. What happened here shocked even | :29:08. | :29:14. | |
the most pessimistic of Lib Dems. They lost nearly 1-in-2 | :29:15. | :29:17. | |
of their voters here, letting It was a result that | :29:18. | :29:19. | |
was mirrored in much of the south-west, | :29:20. | :29:31. | |
but now - revenge. Theresa May's announcement yesterday | :29:32. | :29:32. | |
is a chance for the Lib Dems to retake what they believe | :29:33. | :29:35. | |
is their territory. Shortly after Theresa May's | :29:36. | :29:38. | |
announcement, I went They claim to have already had | :29:39. | :29:40. | |
23 new members since Fantastic, I'll give you a call | :29:41. | :29:46. | |
in the next couple of days. That was someone who is | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
looking to get involved Just a spontaneous phone call, | :29:51. | :29:55. | |
which we've been fielding all day. To be fair, when you said you've | :29:56. | :30:02. | |
been getting lots of phone calls, we've been here for three or four | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
minutes, and you've just got another This is Operation Phoenix, | :30:09. | :30:11. | |
and these are its foot soldiers. What's your big strategy for winning | :30:12. | :30:18. | |
this election, or can you not say? The whole Brexit issue is getting | :30:19. | :30:21. | |
people politically motivated, that weren't previously | :30:22. | :30:31. | |
in political parties. Until six months ago, | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
I hadn't joined a political And it was Theresa May's speech | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
about citizens of the world being citizens of nowhere that | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
prompted me to go out that very day This is a fantastic | :30:45. | :30:47. | |
chance for the Lib Dems, because the Lib Dems are one | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
of the few parties who are actually And there are so many | :30:52. | :30:54. | |
people now who are leaving the parties because they are | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
so depressed, demoralised. Depressed and demoralised maybe, | :30:58. | :30:59. | |
but in some areas Brexit gives Liberal Democrats reckon they've got | :31:00. | :31:05. | |
a pretty good chance of taking south-western seats, | :31:06. | :31:16. | |
like this one here in Bath. One of the reasons for | :31:17. | :31:18. | |
that is because Bath voted Now the problem with that, is that | :31:19. | :31:20. | |
most of the south-western seats they want to take off | :31:21. | :31:31. | |
the Tories, they voted out. Just down the road is | :31:32. | :31:34. | |
the constituency of Wells. It's one of a glut of more | :31:35. | :31:38. | |
traditional rural seats that the Liberal Democrats lost | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
to the Conservatives in 2015, and it poses a problem | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
for Operation Phoenix. If you look at the referendum | :31:47. | :31:50. | |
result, 69% of people in Bath voted to remain, | :31:51. | :31:53. | |
but unfortunately for the Lib Dems, that's not replicated | :31:54. | :31:57. | |
across the south-west. Places like Taunton Deane, | :31:58. | :32:00. | |
Yeovil and here in Wells voted out. So, if the Liberal Democrats think | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
they can use this election as a second referendum on Brexit, | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
the south-west might not be So you've never voted | :32:11. | :32:12. | |
Conservative before? I was Liberal Democrat, | :32:13. | :32:17. | |
and I'm only voting now because of the situation we are in, | :32:18. | :32:23. | |
to make sure she gets in and gets through with Brexit, | :32:24. | :32:27. | |
because I voted for Brexit. So you voted Liberal | :32:28. | :32:29. | |
Democrat in 2015? And now you're going to vote | :32:30. | :32:30. | |
Conservative in 2017? I voted Conservative | :32:31. | :32:35. | |
at the last election, but I was Lib Dem before that, | :32:36. | :32:41. | |
and I object to being told that I'm an idiot and I don't | :32:42. | :32:49. | |
know my own mind, and I cannot understand an argument | :32:50. | :32:52. | |
one way or the other. The EU referendum has | :32:53. | :32:55. | |
reset the political It may well be that their best | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
chance of gains are in the more affluent areas of southern England, | :32:59. | :33:09. | |
which includes Bath, rather than the rump | :33:10. | :33:11. | |
of Eurosceptic south-west. Back in Bath, I caught up | :33:12. | :33:13. | |
with the president of the local There's only one party who says | :33:14. | :33:16. | |
they are going to reverse that, and that's the Liberal Democrats, | :33:17. | :33:30. | |
not the Conservative Party. Well, that's quite | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
a staggering thought. I don't know how you | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
reverse Article 50. I don't think there's | :33:38. | :33:41. | |
an Article 51a. Have you spoken to people | :33:42. | :33:43. | |
who voted Remain? A lot of them don't really care | :33:44. | :33:46. | |
about the intricacies, they just want to vote for a party | :33:47. | :33:48. | |
that reflects their views on Europe. They may want that, but it's no | :33:49. | :33:52. | |
longer on the table. By calling this election, | :33:53. | :34:00. | |
Theresa May senses a countrywide opportunity to take seats off Labour | :34:01. | :34:06. | |
and win a sizeable majority. But that calculation only | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
works if she can hold Bath may well be the yardstick | :34:10. | :34:11. | |
by which the PM's decision to go Former Lib Dem leader | :34:12. | :34:19. | |
and Deputy Prime Minister Nick That is the tricky bit, isn't it, | :34:20. | :34:36. | |
Nick Clegg? The woman in that piece we just heard saying loved Brexit, | :34:37. | :34:42. | |
might have been Lib Dems, now if they hear you talking about the EU, | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
campaigning on that at all, they will think they are not your people | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
any more? We will see in the next seven weeks. The thing about Brexit, | :34:50. | :34:53. | |
it's not just really about whether you voted this way or that way last | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
June. It's become a kind of vortex, the prism through which everything | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
else is now refracted in British politics. I will give you an | :35:03. | :35:04. | |
example, those two ladies, I don't know the modestly but I expect | :35:05. | :35:28. | |
I'll be pretty concerned that this Conservative government there is a | :35:29. | :35:30. | |
funding crisis in the NHS, terrible crisis in social care that is not | :35:31. | :35:33. | |
being addressed and huge cuts to the school system. I think one of the | :35:34. | :35:35. | |
things we will be explaining to them is, whatever you voted in the Brexit | :35:36. | :35:38. | |
referendum, having such a Brexit obsessed government means they are | :35:39. | :35:40. | |
not doing their day job, not providing the decent public services | :35:41. | :35:42. | |
people want. That's part of the problem. In terms of the way you | :35:43. | :35:45. | |
campaign, you will not be banging on about Europe? You won't actually | :35:46. | :35:47. | |
mention Europe? I talk about it at the drop of a hat and I will | :35:48. | :35:50. | |
continue to. Even in the south-west? You can't hide from people the facts | :35:51. | :35:53. | |
this general election has been triggered by the Prime Minister the | :35:54. | :35:57. | |
cynical opportunistic reasons, to capitalise on the weakness of her | :35:58. | :36:03. | |
opponent, Jeremy Gubin, and to get an election in before the bad news | :36:04. | :36:07. | |
of Brexit comes. -- Jeremy Corbyn. Whatever people choose to talk | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
about, Brexit will be the dominant theme. You can't hide away from | :36:11. | :36:13. | |
that. But the idea you can't talk about the way in which Brexit, | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
ironically enough, means the oxygen is being sucked away from other | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
things that people passionately care about, schools, hospitals, social | :36:23. | :36:25. | |
care... Will be things are linked and should be discussed. Do you | :36:26. | :36:37. | |
think you can repair the damage done to you all you that you did yourself | :36:38. | :36:40. | |
last time round? Don't ask me, I'm not objective. I think it's a | :36:41. | :36:42. | |
nonsense is this idea that the coalition is the ball and chain... | :36:43. | :36:45. | |
Countless people who now say... I'm not talking about the coalition but | :36:46. | :36:47. | |
the fact you lost a lot of seats, did you think you can win them back? | :36:48. | :36:51. | |
We can't do much worse than we did at the last election! Can you double | :36:52. | :36:54. | |
it? I'm not a soothsayer... You don't have to be. We will do far | :36:55. | :37:01. | |
better than last time. I suspect, it's just an instant, we will do | :37:02. | :37:05. | |
better than people expect for right now. Why? Because there is a great | :37:06. | :37:11. | |
big gap in this election campaign. Give us a ballpark, 13, 14? It's not | :37:12. | :37:17. | |
game of bingo. You Applebee 's MPs, or waiting in the wings. -- you have | :37:18. | :37:24. | |
all these MPs. I don't think it'll be interesting to your viewers what | :37:25. | :37:27. | |
number I plucked out of thin air. That is not issue. What are your | :37:28. | :37:32. | |
expectations Montero that we will do clearly much better than we did last | :37:33. | :37:36. | |
time, we can't do much worse. More than that, we will hopefully with a | :37:37. | :37:40. | |
sizeable Parliamentary party, provide the effective... Lead the | :37:41. | :37:48. | |
opposition against this damaging had Brexit. Which Theresa May wants to | :37:49. | :37:53. | |
garner a landslide majority. If it sizeable enough, could it go into | :37:54. | :37:57. | |
government again? Would you work with Labour? There is absolutely no | :37:58. | :38:03. | |
realistic prospect of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Are you | :38:04. | :38:05. | |
ruling out? It's just not going to happen. Can I surprise you? Let me | :38:06. | :38:12. | |
be very candid with you. I think we should be very plain speaking in | :38:13. | :38:15. | |
this campaign, because I think most people know what's going to happen | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
at the end of this process. Theresa May will be Prime Minister on June | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
nine. I think most people realise there is almost a foregone | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
conclusion that conservatives will remain the party of government. The | :38:28. | :38:30. | |
question then becomes, what kind of majority they have, what kind of | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
mandate to Jake Lehmann what do they do for the next five years? They | :38:35. | :38:40. | |
seem to expect opposition should be extinguished and they can oppose... | :38:41. | :38:45. | |
And therefore, back to your question, when I was a leader in | :38:46. | :38:52. | |
2010, the key test for the Liberal Democrats was how could we step up | :38:53. | :38:55. | |
to the plate to provide responsible government? That might happen again. | :38:56. | :39:00. | |
No. It's how we provide effective opposition. It would not be | :39:01. | :39:05. | |
inconceivable to work with the Conservatives? No way, get Tim on | :39:06. | :39:10. | |
the programme and asking, he's the leader. There is no way the Liberal | :39:11. | :39:15. | |
Democrats are going to install Jeremy Corbyn is the leader of this | :39:16. | :39:19. | |
country nor are we going to sustain Theresa May in power to inflict on | :39:20. | :39:24. | |
the a self harming, economically speaking, self harming had Brexit | :39:25. | :39:28. | |
that nobody voted for last year. We don't have much time. Opposition | :39:29. | :39:33. | |
is not something to be dismissed. Much though I enjoyed my time in | :39:34. | :39:36. | |
government and felt we did a good job, I value, that's one of the | :39:37. | :39:40. | |
reasons I'm standing as a candidate, I value an effective opposition in a | :39:41. | :39:43. | |
healthy democracy. We don't have that at the moment because Labour | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
has collapsed. This is about Tim Farron. He got himself into some hot | :39:49. | :39:57. | |
water defining where liberal beliefs and Christian beliefs coincide. Yes, | :39:58. | :40:00. | |
he said homosexuality is not a sin, but is he... Is he allowed to be a | :40:01. | :40:05. | |
Christian thinker and a liberal? At the moment it seems like he's been | :40:06. | :40:09. | |
put on the spot and being told to choose between his Christian | :40:10. | :40:13. | |
beliefs, what he thinks of homosexuality, in the privacy of his | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
mind, and his position as the Lib Dem leader? I think you've said it. | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
It's the privacy of his faith, which he should be able to hold and hold | :40:23. | :40:27. | |
dearly, in the private way that many people hold faith to themselves, or | :40:28. | :40:34. | |
indeed don't at all. What he does as a legislator and politician, that is | :40:35. | :40:38. | |
legitimate... He wasn't really able to say that. He had to come out | :40:39. | :40:44. | |
today and say... I'm just saying to you my view on politicians and their | :40:45. | :40:47. | |
faith and how it affects their public duties, you should judge them | :40:48. | :40:50. | |
not by what their private faith is but what their public actions. As | :40:51. | :40:56. | |
you know you voted time and time again, alongside all other Liberal | :40:57. | :41:02. | |
Democrats, in of anti-discrimination measures, equal marriage. Judging by | :41:03. | :41:06. | |
his actions as an MP, not by the somewhat sort of sanctimonious | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
judgments about his own private faith. His own private faith is his. | :41:11. | :41:15. | |
Let him have that, let him have that freedom and privacy of faith but | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
also judging by his actions as a legislator, which are impeccably | :41:19. | :41:24. | |
liberal ones. Parting thought for George Osborne, as he steps down, | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
the man who masterminded your decapitation? Good luck to him. I | :41:29. | :41:34. | |
think it's quite telling, however much I staunchly disagreed with | :41:35. | :41:40. | |
George Osborne over many years, he is a particular conservative, a | :41:41. | :41:44. | |
metropolitan turn of mind, he believes in globalisation, he | :41:45. | :41:48. | |
believes in a cosmopolitan view of the world. If the Conservative Party | :41:49. | :41:53. | |
can't retake the ball like that, whatever you think, like or dislike | :41:54. | :41:57. | |
George Osborne, his a formidable figure in the Conservative Party, if | :41:58. | :42:00. | |
they can't keep people like that it becomes more narrow and sect like | :42:01. | :42:04. | |
and that won't serve the Conservative Party well in the long | :42:05. | :42:10. | |
run. Nick Clegg, thank you. That is all we have time for tonight. Hirst | :42:11. | :42:16. | |
is back tomorrow. Good night. -- Kirsty is back tomorrow. | :42:17. | :42:17. | |
Hello. Let's see what the weather has in store for the rest of the | :42:18. | :42:30. | |
week. If anything, turning a little warmer across southern | :42:31. | :42:31. |