Browse content similar to 20/04/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
Line | From | To | |
---|---|---|---|
The centre of the city has been evacuated. | :00:00. | :00:11. | |
With an election just three days away, what impact will this | :00:12. | :00:14. | |
The next Prime Minister of the UK, Jeremy Corbyn. | :00:15. | :00:20. | |
He's defied the odds before - can he do it again? | :00:21. | :00:25. | |
It's the establishment versus the people. | :00:26. | :00:27. | |
It's our historic duty to make sure the people prevail. | :00:28. | :00:34. | |
We'll ask the man running Labour's election campaign | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
And what about the Conservatives - just how prepared are they? | :00:37. | :00:44. | |
We've found evidence that the Tories don't even have candidates lined up | :00:45. | :00:47. | |
for some of their most winnable target seats. | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
Also tonight, the other May that could decide June. | :00:53. | :00:57. | |
She might not act on it, but she'll listen. | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
What part does Theresa's husband Philip play | :01:03. | :01:03. | |
A big day for Labour today as Jeremy Corbyn | :01:04. | :01:20. | |
We'll be speaking to the man masterminding his campaign shortly. | :01:21. | :01:26. | |
But we begin this evening with a developing story in Paris, | :01:27. | :01:28. | |
which has once again become the focus of a terror attack | :01:29. | :01:31. | |
just three days before the country heads to the polls. | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
A major police operation is ongoing tonight after a shooting | :01:36. | :01:37. | |
The target this time around, police officers themselves. | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
One shot dead, two others seriously wounded. | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
Christian Fraser is close to the scene and we can go to him now. | :01:46. | :01:51. | |
Just talk us through what you're seeing and what happening there now. | :01:52. | :02:01. | |
We were down on the pavement and the top of Grand Armee. We have the cars | :02:02. | :02:11. | |
going around the Arc de Triomphe. It is deserted. Armed police are on the | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
pavements and I'd imagine that many of the people in the cafes, on the | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
terraces and in the hotels of that part of the street earlier this | :02:20. | :02:26. | |
evening are still in lockdown. While we were here broadcasting, around | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
9pm local time we started to feel that there was something happening. | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
One or two police cars were tearing down Grand Armee and then they | :02:36. | :02:40. | |
started coming from all directions, clearly the message had gone out on | :02:41. | :02:45. | |
the police radios that officers were needed. It got so silly at one point | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
that there were police cars overtaking each other, they were so | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
desperate to get there, nearly knocking down pedestrians here. Then | :02:53. | :02:59. | |
word went out that shots had been fired and obviously the panic | :03:00. | :03:02. | |
started to break out, so young people who were next to the eternal | :03:03. | :03:08. | |
flame and looking at the Arc de Triomphe were running in all | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
directions and a very jumpy police force because they didn't really no | :03:13. | :03:16. | |
what they were dealing with. This has happened very quickly. There is | :03:17. | :03:23. | |
an arrest warrant for the suspect. What stage is the investigation at? | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
The police are telling us that they are not looking for anyone in this | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
part of Paris but there is an operation going on in eastern Paris | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
near the parliament. They have the identity of the attacker and he is | :03:37. | :03:39. | |
known to the counterintelligence service here in France. Reuters are | :03:40. | :03:46. | |
reporting that there is a document, an arrest warrant for a man who came | :03:47. | :03:49. | |
into the country from Belgium and they are looking for this | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
accomplice. France is on a state of emergency which has been extended | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
for a fifth time until July, since the Algerian War. It will have | :03:59. | :04:06. | |
implications, you would think, for the election which is three days | :04:07. | :04:16. | |
away. Francois Fillon... We're losing you, I'm so sorry, I think | :04:17. | :04:21. | |
the signal has been badly scrambled. Understandable because there's quite | :04:22. | :04:23. | |
a big police presence and we don't know what's going on. But thanks for | :04:24. | :04:26. | |
joining us. Anne-Elisabeth Moutet is a French | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
journalist who lives a short distance from the scene | :04:31. | :04:32. | |
of the attack. Fingers crossed for this signal. | :04:33. | :04:40. | |
Thank you for joining us. It's pretty hard not to see this as a | :04:41. | :04:47. | |
provocation of some sort, just three days before the country goes to the | :04:48. | :04:54. | |
polls, isn't it? It's very tempting because it disrupts the democratic | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
process in Western countries and especially a western country which, | :04:59. | :05:04. | |
to give it its due, Francois Hollande has put it at the forefront | :05:05. | :05:11. | |
of fighting Islamic terrorism. The country was behind him on this. You | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
have four main candidates, 11th candidates in total, four have a | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
chance of being in the run-off in two weeks' time and of them, two | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
have put the emphasis on the dangers of Islamic terrorism, Marine Le Pen | :05:25. | :05:31. | |
and also Francois Fillon. This may be the time when Francois Fillon | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
manages to inch his way back into being in the run-off. It's | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
interesting because I think Emmanuel Macron said earlier tonight that, | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
the candidate of the left, this will be a threat to our daily life for | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
years to come. I guess that's quite a gamble, isn't it, to tell people | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
that they will have to carry on living with this? He is an | :05:52. | :05:57. | |
intellectual, a very bright technocrat, somebody who has never | :05:58. | :06:04. | |
run for election and he has been a young figure. It's difficult to say | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
that he is unknown because he was the economy Minister for two years | :06:09. | :06:18. | |
and he has run his campaign on enthusiast and, which is probably | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
what the country needs. But when it comes to the heavy things like | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
terrorism I'm not sure he has entirely got the atmosphere of the | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
country right on this one. It completely contrasts with what | :06:34. | :06:36. | |
Marine Le Pen has been saying. In concrete terms, when she talks about | :06:37. | :06:41. | |
terrorism, terrorist attacks, what does she intends to do to stop them? | :06:42. | :06:48. | |
Well, she certainly once a version of Frexit, meaning the Borders would | :06:49. | :06:58. | |
close, she would like a moratorium on immigration into France and some | :06:59. | :07:06. | |
measures she would take in the early months of her presidency. This | :07:07. | :07:09. | |
reminds you of Donald Trump, who said he had ten measures that he | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
would sign straightaway. The idea that she is a different politician | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
and that she's going to come up with campaign promises and say that she's | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
going to make them operated, even though this may not happen, it is a | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
good of her campaign. She has already said on television that she | :07:29. | :07:30. | |
was vindicated, that she was right all along. What she can do is going | :07:31. | :07:37. | |
to be interesting because we already have a state of emergency in the | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
country. So parliament voted that through and the population is | :07:42. | :07:47. | |
broadly behind Parliament on this. It was a left-wing government that | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
voted it in. OK, thank you very much indeed. | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
Jeremy Corbyn is perhaps never happier than back in campaign mode. | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
His lines today reminded his legion of supporters why they liked him: | :08:00. | :08:05. | |
a leader unafraid to be anti-establishment, | :08:06. | :08:06. | |
the feathers of the rich or upsetting the elites. | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
They came to hear him in person, some said | :08:11. | :08:12. | |
to escape the prism of a media they believe is out to get him. | :08:13. | :08:15. | |
And whilst the polls suggest he doesn't stand a change | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
And whilst the polls suggest he doesn't stand a chance | :08:21. | :08:22. | |
of winning next month, Corbyn dismissed popular wisdom, | :08:23. | :08:24. | |
reminding us that he's been underestimated not once, | :08:25. | :08:26. | |
We thought we'd start tonight with a meaty chunk | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
of Corbyn's message today at his campaign launch. | :08:32. | :08:34. | |
The dividing lines in this election could not be | :08:35. | :08:36. | |
It's the Conservatives, the party of privilege and the richest, | :08:37. | :08:47. | |
The Labour Party that is standing up for working | :08:48. | :08:58. | |
It's the establishment versus the people. | :08:59. | :09:06. | |
It's our historic duty to make sure the people prevail. | :09:07. | :09:13. | |
When we win, it is the people, not the powerful, who win. | :09:14. | :09:20. | |
The nurse, the teacher, the small trader, the carer, | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
the builder, the office worker, the student, the carer | :09:26. | :09:27. | |
So there's the big picture rhetoric, but what can we expect | :09:28. | :09:32. | |
Our policy editor Chris Cook has been assessing what we know so far | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
of what a Corbyn government would do. | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
Maldistribution of wealth in this country is something that's got | :09:43. | :09:45. | |
Jeremy Corbyn rallies aren't what they used to be. | :09:46. | :09:52. | |
After decades at the margins of his party, the long-serving | :09:53. | :09:55. | |
And the manifesto that emerges in the next few weeks | :09:56. | :10:04. | |
will crystallise what it means for Labour to be led from its left. | :10:05. | :10:10. | |
We will no longer allow those at the top to leech off those | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
who bust their guts on zero hours contracts, or those forced to make | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
sacrifices to pay their mortgage or to pay their rent. | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
Instead of the country's wealth being hidden in tax havens, | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
we will put it in the hands of the people of Britain. | :10:25. | :10:28. | |
We can say some things about what's likely to be in Labour's manifesto. | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
For example, the party's already announced that it wants free school | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
meals for all children in primary schools. | :10:35. | :10:37. | |
We can also make some educated guesses. | :10:38. | :10:39. | |
The party's campaigned recently on restoring grants for students | :10:40. | :10:41. | |
There are also tax rises that they have highlighted. | :10:42. | :10:50. | |
They're committed to reversing a recent cut in inheritance tax, | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
and they talk a lot about raising corporation tax, in particular | :10:54. | :10:55. | |
More importantly, though, we can also talk about Labour's view | :10:56. | :11:03. | |
What they have said in very broad terms is that they are not | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
necessarily looking for budget balance, they are looking for what | :11:09. | :11:10. | |
is called current budget balance, which is that they are willing | :11:11. | :11:13. | |
That would mean they could be spending in the medium-term | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
?30-40 billion a year more than the Conservatives, | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
so they're looking at a looser fiscal policy, as you'd expect, | :11:21. | :11:23. | |
Beyond that, though, is less clear, especially as snap | :11:24. | :11:29. | |
First, the party may just not have the time | :11:30. | :11:34. | |
So what we are expecting here is more of a direction of travel. | :11:35. | :11:40. | |
Yes, there will be some detailed policies in areas | :11:41. | :11:42. | |
For example free school meals for all kids funded by VAT | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
But you won't be expecting lots and lots of details | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
You definitely can't do that in the next few weeks | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
There will be things, I'm sure, that we will want to put | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
into the manifesto that we won't be able to put it just yet, | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
so the manifesto may be a rolling manifesto, | :12:02. | :12:03. | |
in that there will be other things coming in at the end. | :12:04. | :12:10. | |
Labour's sums have assumed a 2020 handover, not 2017. | :12:11. | :12:21. | |
Had we had an election in 2020 on current plans, | :12:22. | :12:23. | |
the deficit would have been significantly smaller | :12:24. | :12:25. | |
At the moment, it's still well in excess of ?50 billion. | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
So if the Labour Party is looking, if it is looking to get | :12:32. | :12:36. | |
a current budget balance, a deficit of maybe 30 billion or so, | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
that means there is still some austerity to go through in order | :12:40. | :12:43. | |
There will need to be some tax rises or spending cuts | :12:44. | :12:50. | |
as a fraction of national income to achieve that target. | :12:51. | :12:55. | |
That means some Corbyn ideas with big fiscal | :12:56. | :12:57. | |
implications might need delays, tweaks or rethinks. | :12:58. | :12:59. | |
Keep an eye on the abolition of university tuition | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
fees, or the seeding of a public infrastructure bank. | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
Labour's processes also cause issues for Mr Corbyn. | :13:08. | :13:10. | |
The third complication is how his party makes policy. | :13:11. | :13:13. | |
It has to go through party structures. | :13:14. | :13:16. | |
The Labour Party isn't about one person. | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
The Labour Party is a team of people all working together. | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
It's not about one MP, and it's not about one leader. | :13:25. | :13:31. | |
Mr Corbyn is strongly against nuclear weapons, | :13:32. | :13:34. | |
but Labour's leader doesn't control its manifesto on their own. | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
And despite attempts, when it comes to Trident, | :13:40. | :13:42. | |
I'm delighted to say that Labour is fully in favour | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
In fact, one of the advantages of the big toing and froing | :13:48. | :13:54. | |
that we have had in recent years on this is that we arrived | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
I tell you this, I wouldn't be sorry if it was a 60% tax | :13:58. | :14:03. | |
The Corbyn manifesto, then, might not be quite what he dreamed | :14:04. | :14:07. | |
it would be back when he was out on the margins. | :14:08. | :14:15. | |
Joining me now from Salford is Labour's Campaign | :14:16. | :14:17. | |
Jeremy Corbyn was very clear this morning, setting out in his speech | :14:18. | :14:31. | |
the establishment versus the people. He very helpfully listed the people, | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
even name checking some of the baddies, but just tell us who is the | :14:37. | :14:42. | |
establishment in this context? There is an important message, after seven | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
years of Conservative government, what we've seen is a growth in | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
inequality across our society. So people living and working hard in | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
Britain today feel as if they aren't getting their fair share of their | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
efforts. It reminds me very much of the message, clause four on the | :15:04. | :15:09. | |
Labour Party membership card, saying that we seek as a party to create a | :15:10. | :15:17. | |
society that benefits the many, not the few. Fundamentally that's what | :15:18. | :15:21. | |
this election is about, making sure we have policies in place that had | :15:22. | :15:26. | |
the many and the few. The message was clear but wasn't really was who | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
he was talking about. He went through this list of the people, the | :15:31. | :15:36. | |
nurse, the teacher, the carer, the builder, but who are on the other | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
side? He said versus the establishment. If you aren't a | :15:41. | :15:43. | |
nurse, if you're a doctor, a hospital manager, if you are a | :15:44. | :15:49. | |
headteacher, if you are a medium-sized trader, where are you | :15:50. | :15:52. | |
then? Are you part of the establishment? | :15:53. | :15:57. | |
Absolutely not. Where are you, then? What we are pointing to some of the | :15:58. | :16:04. | |
real sharp practices that have really grown in recent years. Some | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
of those exploitative employers that make use of things like zero hours | :16:11. | :16:19. | |
contractsin the worst possible way. Why should people that put in a | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
decent day's work not get the same rights that others enjoyed? Forgive | :16:24. | :16:29. | |
me... That is no longer acceptable. He didn't talk about unfair | :16:30. | :16:35. | |
practices. He said people versus the establishment, or the establishment | :16:36. | :16:38. | |
versus the people, and many people will be struggling to work out the | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
night whether you are on their side, whether they are viewed as the | :16:43. | :16:47. | |
establishment that you are against. If you are small business and you | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
start to do well and growing too big business, do you still support them? | :16:53. | :16:57. | |
We absolutely do, because it is about ordinary working people but | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
then develop small businesses that become the wealth creators and | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
employ more people. What we are talking about here is a rigged | :17:07. | :17:09. | |
society. We are talking about from the very top of government... So the | :17:10. | :17:14. | |
whole of the establishment is rates? No, we have had over the last six | :17:15. | :17:19. | |
years some decisions taken by Government that have really hit | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
people on low and average and medium incomes, whether it has been the | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
cuts to benefits and some of the tax changes that have affected people on | :17:31. | :17:35. | |
lower incomes as opposed to some of the tax changes that have really | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
benefited the super-rich. So when you say super-rich, this is what I'm | :17:42. | :17:45. | |
trying to pin down. You have already named checked the people you don't | :17:46. | :17:50. | |
like, the Philip Greens and the Mike Ashleys and the rest of it, but now | :17:51. | :17:55. | |
you go to the super-rich. If you are redistributing, you have to be | :17:56. | :17:59. | |
taking away from some. Who is super-rich? Is a doctor super-rich? | :18:00. | :18:05. | |
Is a surgeon super-rich? If you are redistributing, something has to be | :18:06. | :18:08. | |
taken away to give it to the people you think deserve it more. You need | :18:09. | :18:12. | |
to be a little bit patient because we will be publishing our manifesto | :18:13. | :18:15. | |
that will have all of our commitment, all of our policies | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
fully costed in the weeks ahead for the election campaign. But what you | :18:21. | :18:26. | |
will see... But you set those terms today, you have made a big speech | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
saying we are the people versus the establishment, that is why I am | :18:31. | :18:35. | |
asking. What you will see is a programme for fairness, that ensures | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
that those people who have really lost out and been hit hard under | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
this Conservative government over the last seven years will get a fair | :18:42. | :18:49. | |
say, a fair hearing, and we will build a Britain for the many and not | :18:50. | :18:52. | |
the few. And what we have heard time and again is that the Tories are | :18:53. | :18:55. | |
hell-bent on cuts to public services, that has been Jeremy | :18:56. | :18:59. | |
Corbyn's line. So you will end austerity? There will be no more | :19:00. | :19:03. | |
spending cuts after June if there is a Corbyn government, is that right? | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
You will have to wait and see some of the exciting announcements... If | :19:08. | :19:13. | |
you are a government ending austerity... I know you are trying | :19:14. | :19:18. | |
to get me to preannounce the manifesto live on Newsnight, I am | :19:19. | :19:21. | |
not going to do that. But you will be pleasantly supplies -- surprised | :19:22. | :19:31. | |
when you see some of the policy announcements we will make. When you | :19:32. | :19:35. | |
talk about ending austerity, the one thing people know about Corbyn's | :19:36. | :19:39. | |
Labour Party as they don't like austerities and cuts to public | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
spending, it should be written into concrete for you to be above say, | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
yes, we are ending austerity, no more public spending cuts. And you | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
will see when the manifesto is published that there is a real | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
commitment to investing in public services, in NHS, in social care, | :19:55. | :19:59. | |
that has really been cut back to the bone and is causing a crisis out | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
there. You will see investment in public services because of that is | :20:04. | :20:09. | |
the kind of society, a fairer society Labour wants to deliver. And | :20:10. | :20:13. | |
one thing you have been clear about and John Woodcock reinforced at the | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
end of that these is that we do know where you are on the Trident policy, | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
you would as a party renew Trident as things stand, is that right? The | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
Labour Party will always put the security interests of this country | :20:27. | :20:31. | |
first. And you will have a Trident policy, but you will have a leader | :20:32. | :20:34. | |
that wouldn't press the button, does that still stand? We will have a | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
Prime Minister who has Trident but doesn't arrest the button? You are | :20:40. | :20:44. | |
trying to drag me down a road here... I'm trying to get clarity. | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
The Labour Party in Government will do nothing that puts the security of | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
the United Kingdom at risk. Andrew Gwynne, thank you. Thank you. | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
Theresa May stunned Westminster when she called her snap | :20:58. | :20:59. | |
For the gamble to pay off she hopes to win a string | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
But Newsnight has tonight learned that the Prime Minister's secrecy | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
in calling the poll might have left her own party unprepared. | :21:08. | :21:10. | |
We wanted to find out how prepared Theresa May's party was for the | :21:11. | :21:22. | |
coming election, so we looked at 36 key target seats where there is a | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
Labour MP at the moment on a majority of less than 5000, and | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
crucially, constituencies that the analysis suggests voted for Brexit. | :21:31. | :21:37. | |
We managed to get in touch with 20 of those seats and get an answer | :21:38. | :21:41. | |
from them on their candidate selection, and we found that out of | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
those 20, not a single one had yet appointed a candidate for those | :21:46. | :21:52. | |
seats. Now, that matters of course because at the moment there is a | :21:53. | :21:55. | |
Labour MP going around seeking re-election or starting their | :21:56. | :21:59. | |
campaign, well bedded in, campaigning tomorrow and next week, | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
and some of these seats told us they hadn't even started the selection | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
process, some even had long list of 100 applicants still to wade through | :22:10. | :22:13. | |
to get a short list, and others hadn't even begun the process at | :22:14. | :22:17. | |
all, and it is highly unusual for a governing party to go into an | :22:18. | :22:21. | |
election in that sort of state of unpreparedness. Thank you. | :22:22. | :22:27. | |
The announcement of a snap election this week was one of those rare | :22:28. | :22:30. | |
moments in politics: a genuine surprise. | :22:31. | :22:31. | |
The fact it wasn't leaked points to a small but tightly knit coterie | :22:32. | :22:34. | |
around Theresa May, at the very heart of | :22:35. | :22:36. | |
May has since told us the decision was born as the couple enjoyed | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
the fresh mountain air and isolation of Snowdonia. | :22:42. | :22:42. | |
Philip May eschews the limelight but some say he could be the most | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
What role does he play in the workings of Number 10? | :22:47. | :22:56. | |
On the evening of July the 13th last year, all eyes were fixed on the | :22:57. | :23:04. | |
last candidate left standing after the brief but bloody battle to | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
succeed David Cameron. Out of the immediate shot of the cameras, an | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
unassuming figure, barely known outside Westminster, looked on with | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
pride as Britain's second female Prime Minister took office. This | :23:17. | :23:22. | |
week, the Prime Minister stood on the own in Downing Street, but this | :23:23. | :23:28. | |
was no lonely figure. Theresa May finally decided to take her | :23:29. | :23:31. | |
uncharacteristic gamble in the presence of just one other person. | :23:32. | :23:36. | |
Her husband, Philip May, during a walking holiday in Snowdonia. Philip | :23:37. | :23:45. | |
May's central hole -- central role at a defining moment shows that | :23:46. | :23:49. | |
here's a dip in dispensable member of her inner circle. Much attention | :23:50. | :23:54. | |
has been paid to number ten Joint Chiefs of Staff, Nick Timothy Fiona | :23:55. | :23:57. | |
hill, but Theresa May is loath to take any big political decision | :23:58. | :23:59. | |
without first consulting her husband. It is truly a marriage of | :24:00. | :24:06. | |
equals. I think it is hard to contest the view that Philip | :24:07. | :24:12. | |
Hammond, the Chancellor, is only the second most important Philip living | :24:13. | :24:18. | |
on Downing Street. Philip is clearly acting informally as an adviser to | :24:19. | :24:22. | |
Theresa May, probably much as Denis Thatcher did to Margaret Thatcher. | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
He will stand up to her, and I think sometimes fittest ideas against him, | :24:28. | :24:32. | |
and he will put a different point of view. She always listens to him. She | :24:33. | :24:37. | |
will listen. She might not act on it, but she will listen. Friends who | :24:38. | :24:43. | |
knew the couple when they met 40 years earlier would never have bet | :24:44. | :24:46. | |
that it would be Theresa May walking into Number 10. If you look back | :24:47. | :24:52. | |
into the history rather than how it turned out, you might have thought, | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
well, Phil would go into politics, but he didn't. But I think he has | :24:58. | :25:03. | |
been very supportive, and that is what you see today, that the | :25:04. | :25:05. | |
interest has stemmed from his politics, but Theresa is the one who | :25:06. | :25:13. | |
went mainstream. Oxford, a cradle of ambition for many wannabe Prime | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
Minister is, provided a lyrical setting for the start of the Made | :25:18. | :25:22. | |
partnership. The future Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto played | :25:23. | :25:27. | |
Cupid to what seemed an unlikely pairing. He was two years below her. | :25:28. | :25:37. | |
To be honest, he seemed a bit young, to a 20-year-old. He only just past | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
the height test, because Theresa liked her boyfriends to be at least | :25:42. | :25:48. | |
as tall as her, and I think he only just about past master. | :25:49. | :25:56. | |
# Watch that scene # Digging the dancing Queen. | :25:57. | :26:03. | |
In those heady days of the 1970s, it turned out that Philip May wasn't | :26:04. | :26:07. | |
her first Oxford romance. She certainly seems to be trialling a | :26:08. | :26:11. | |
fair number! I'm not sure many got very serious. But there were a | :26:12. | :26:17. | |
number she went out with. But once Philip appeared on the scene, it | :26:18. | :26:22. | |
rather felt like the rest were nowhere. Theresa May made what one | :26:23. | :26:30. | |
friend described as desultory attempts to pursue a career at the | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
Oxford union. She never held office herself, but returned to her alma | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
mater as her future husband embarked on his own union career. Within a | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
year of escorting one well-known figure two A1978 debate, Philip May | :26:46. | :26:55. | |
had secured the coveted post of union president for himself. Around | :26:56. | :27:00. | |
the time Margaret Thatcher entered Number 10 with her own low-key | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
consort in tow. He was very ambitious. I think it was fair to | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
say that he wasn't an exciting speaker. He was a worthy, | :27:12. | :27:14. | |
middle-of-the-road conservative. There were a lot of pretty colourful | :27:15. | :27:21. | |
people around who I think were more obviously going somewhere as | :27:22. | :27:26. | |
politicians. The following year, Philip May married Theresa brazier. | :27:27. | :27:32. | |
Shortly afterwards, Theresa May, an only child, lost both her parents. | :27:33. | :27:39. | |
I had huge supporting my husband, and that was very important for me. | :27:40. | :27:41. | |
He was a real rock from the. Theresa and Philip May knuckled down | :27:42. | :27:56. | |
in the city in the 1980s and it underwent the Big Bang up evil, but | :27:57. | :28:07. | |
they shunned the yuppie lifestyle to focus on fundraising. -- the Big | :28:08. | :28:16. | |
Bang up evil. As the local agent, my job was to make sure we kept the | :28:17. | :28:20. | |
local organisation going and focused on raising some cash and some money, | :28:21. | :28:24. | |
too, and she was very much and they were very much the leaders of the | :28:25. | :28:32. | |
local Conservative Party. Philip May. ABBA 1996 Conservative Party | :28:33. | :28:38. | |
conference, the 29-year-old Philip May showed he still had ambitions on | :28:39. | :28:44. | |
the national stage. I guess that most people would think that foreign | :28:45. | :28:47. | |
affairs isn't exactly a very sexy subject. The delivery was eight had | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
wooden, although he had a clear message on one contentious issue. | :28:52. | :28:58. | |
Britain has been a member of the European Community for 13 years and | :28:59. | :29:01. | |
we have helped to change many things in Europe for the good, and I hope | :29:02. | :29:05. | |
we will continue to do so. We need to strengthen the economic base of | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
the community by breaking down the barriers to the free movement of | :29:10. | :29:16. | |
goods and services. But you know Europe is not just an economic | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
community, it is a political community, too. In the early 1990s, | :29:20. | :29:27. | |
it was Theresa May who stood for Parliament. Unsuccessfully. By then, | :29:28. | :29:32. | |
Philip May's own political ambitions were waning. I asked him years later | :29:33. | :29:42. | |
after Theresa became an MP if he thought he might become one too, and | :29:43. | :29:48. | |
he said, no, we have discussed it, but we think one in the family is | :29:49. | :29:52. | |
probably quite sufficient. And I think they felt that it would be too | :29:53. | :29:59. | |
much work, and drawn too many ways. And he does in awful lot in the | :30:00. | :30:02. | |
constituency. Again, it is the support side. And he always has. He | :30:03. | :30:12. | |
sort of supports her job. So, Philip May decided to | :30:13. | :30:16. | |
concentrate on his City career in asset management, with a focus on | :30:17. | :30:21. | |
client relations. He was not flashy and was low-key as his wife's | :30:22. | :30:27. | |
political career rocketed after her election to Parliament in 1997. One | :30:28. | :30:32. | |
senior Tory MP who has known the couple since Oxford believes that | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
Philip May's City background leaves him well-placed to advise the Prime | :30:38. | :30:39. | |
Minister on the dangers posed by Brexit. | :30:40. | :30:44. | |
They both know, I think it's becoming more evident, that in | :30:45. | :30:51. | |
public policy too that leaving the EU and returning to the WTO rules | :30:52. | :30:57. | |
would be a high risk strategy and we need a new deal. The financial | :30:58. | :31:01. | |
services sector in particular needs to have a way of getting access to | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
Continental European markets. He knows a lot about that subject from | :31:07. | :31:12. | |
his background in insurance and other parts of the financial world | :31:13. | :31:15. | |
and I expect he's feeding those thoughts in. At a time when many | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
contemporaries of theirs are retiring, Theresa May's new role has | :31:20. | :31:23. | |
prompted her husband to make a career change of his own. He's still | :31:24. | :31:29. | |
working four days a week. He just said he'd given up one day a week to | :31:30. | :31:37. | |
run a private side. He said that Theresa has no time for it. Over the | :31:38. | :31:43. | |
coming weeks, Theresa May will portray herself as the ultimate safe | :31:44. | :31:50. | |
pair of hands. No doubt steady Phil will help to reinforce that message. | :31:51. | :31:54. | |
They aren't the most exciting people but as you know in politics, being | :31:55. | :32:03. | |
dial isn't always an advantage -- being dull isn't a disadvantage. | :32:04. | :32:09. | |
Perhaps what has taken the Prime Minister to the top would be less | :32:10. | :32:16. | |
easy without her rock. Phillips says to me, Theresa says it is a job and | :32:17. | :32:20. | |
you have to put it to one side when you've finished it and I think the | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
fact that she can go home developed and talk things through with him and | :32:25. | :32:31. | |
put it aside is a way of surviving it -- go home and talk to Philip. | :32:32. | :32:36. | |
Like many broadcasters, we entered into the spirit | :32:37. | :32:38. | |
of election 2015 rather excited about our polling models. | :32:39. | :32:40. | |
And the next day you might recall we pulled | :32:41. | :32:50. | |
the plug and sent it off to polling index heaven. | :32:51. | :32:53. | |
Well, who'd have thought we'd be back here so quickly? | :32:54. | :32:56. | |
So can we trust the pollsters, and what have they learned | :32:57. | :32:59. | |
In a moment we'll speak to Newsnight's former pet | :33:00. | :33:09. | |
But first here is Joe Twyman, from the leading pollsters, YouGov, | :33:10. | :33:13. | |
to have a go at explaining what he thinks went wrong, | :33:14. | :33:16. | |
The last few years have shown that we pollsters don't | :33:17. | :33:19. | |
It's worth remembering that we don't always get things wrong either. | :33:20. | :33:23. | |
The majority of election polls since World War II | :33:24. | :33:30. | |
have on average been within 2% of the actual vote share. | :33:31. | :33:33. | |
Only at one election has the average error | :33:34. | :33:36. | |
No final published poll has ever been more than 6% out. | :33:37. | :33:42. | |
The accuracy improved in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but in 2015, they were not | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
This error was due to a number of things, such as the way we model | :33:47. | :33:53. | |
voter turnout but the key factor was the difficulty in getting | :33:54. | :33:56. | |
We've gone back to the millions of data points we'd previously | :33:57. | :34:04. | |
collected and analysed them to identify the specific key groups | :34:05. | :34:07. | |
within our sample who need to be better represented in our surveys. | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
People who are not as interested in politics, for example. | :34:11. | :34:12. | |
It then becomes a matter of recruitment. | :34:13. | :34:14. | |
YouGov has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds last year | :34:15. | :34:17. | |
alone recruiting specifically targeted people to sign up | :34:18. | :34:22. | |
Since the last election, big data has also come into play. | :34:23. | :34:37. | |
Being able to draw on a host of additional variables and historic | :34:38. | :34:40. | |
data that is available on our servers has been essential | :34:41. | :34:42. | |
in developing a greater, deeper understanding | :34:43. | :34:43. | |
No matter how well we do, however, we cannot abolish | :34:44. | :34:47. | |
Polling is an inexact science and even the most perfect polls | :34:48. | :34:51. | |
will still have a margin of error associated with them | :34:52. | :34:53. | |
and they are only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the given | :34:54. | :34:56. | |
Chris Hanretty was our man in election 2015, and he's back now. | :34:57. | :35:01. | |
Nice to see you, Chris. Do you agree that it was the difficulty in | :35:02. | :35:08. | |
getting people to take part, there was a lack of enough data? Yes, the | :35:09. | :35:14. | |
key problem, as you heard, is one of recruiting people, how do you get | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
people who don't really care about politics to answer questions about | :35:20. | :35:25. | |
it? A tricky thing and paying them, working harder to recruit them, they | :35:26. | :35:29. | |
both ways of addressing these problems but how will we know | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
whether efforts have worked? We'll know after this election. What do | :35:34. | :35:39. | |
you do, then? I mean, can you assume that is something you don't know and | :35:40. | :35:43. | |
account for it, or does that not work? You can try and look for | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
characteristics that matter based on what you know about politics. One | :35:50. | :35:53. | |
example, education. The referendum showed clearly that education is | :35:54. | :35:59. | |
structuring our political views more than it has done in the past so | :36:00. | :36:02. | |
polling companies are making sure that the composition of the sample | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
matches what we know from the census about educational qualifications and | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
how they match up with age, so they are getting the right kind of | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
people. The point was made about big data. So much is known about us now, | :36:16. | :36:20. | |
even from our smartphones, it should be easier to read, people's | :36:21. | :36:27. | |
political allegiances and biases. It's a question of matching back to | :36:28. | :36:31. | |
the true value in the population. We know from things like the census how | :36:32. | :36:38. | |
many people are aged 18-25. We don't know, for example, how many people | :36:39. | :36:44. | |
watch Casualties and Newsnight. Those people may affect political | :36:45. | :36:47. | |
attitudes but we can't tell the population value. You need some | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
baseline truth against which you can measure yourself. This is | :36:51. | :36:58. | |
interesting, the pollsters, I think you were down with journalists and | :36:59. | :37:01. | |
us at one point in terms of the public perception! Do you think it's | :37:02. | :37:07. | |
about getting the numbers right, or is it about landing on the | :37:08. | :37:09. | |
Brightside of the coin? I think polling companies unfairly get | :37:10. | :37:15. | |
pilloried based on which side they ended up -- on the right side of the | :37:16. | :37:20. | |
coin. If you go back to the reverend, a lot of polls said that | :37:21. | :37:26. | |
Leave was ahead. Most pollsters said that it would go for Remain and that | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
is what stuck. People feel that the polls called it for Remain and | :37:31. | :37:34. | |
therefore they are rubbish, but they all said it would be close. In terms | :37:35. | :37:40. | |
of what you're doing with your modelling, this has been sprung on | :37:41. | :37:44. | |
everyone so you probably haven't got time, have you, to get something | :37:45. | :37:49. | |
that feels accurate? I'm probably going to steer clear of making any | :37:50. | :37:54. | |
firm forecasts for this election. This election has taken, I think, | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
certainly me by surprise. Thank you for joining us. | :37:58. | :38:00. | |
When you found out Serena Williams was pregnant when she won her 23rd | :38:01. | :38:03. | |
grand slam without dropping a set, what was your reaction? | :38:04. | :38:06. | |
Elation that pregnancy can be that liberating? | :38:07. | :38:08. | |
Or desperation that such a ridiculously high | :38:09. | :38:09. | |
The pregnant world is divided between those who hate | :38:10. | :38:16. | |
being viewed as ill or incapable for nine long months, | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
and those who who frankly, wish the world would cut | :38:20. | :38:21. | |
Here to discuss this are Anna Kessel, sports journalist | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
for the Guardian and the Observer and chair of Women in | :38:27. | :38:28. | |
Football, and Liz Young, a professional golfer. | :38:29. | :38:31. | |
She competed in the British Open last year when she was | :38:32. | :38:33. | |
Liz, I'm fascinated, not just by how it felt, in terms of your body and | :38:34. | :38:45. | |
your fatigue, but the perception of you, golfing, when you were so | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
heavily pregnant. Was there a lot of stigma about seeing a woman trying | :38:51. | :38:55. | |
to do competitive sport? I definitely had some second looks | :38:56. | :38:58. | |
from people who didn't realise that I was pregnant. I turned around and | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
the bump was showering and I have a second glance. On the whole, from my | :39:04. | :39:08. | |
friends on the tour and colleagues, they were very supportive and | :39:09. | :39:13. | |
congratulating me in doing it. On the other hand, I got some attention | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
that was, is this the right thing I should be doing, due to looking | :39:19. | :39:24. | |
after my unborn child? You weren't meant to be a competitive person | :39:25. | :39:29. | |
with a bump? Some people in the papers were questioning whether it | :39:30. | :39:32. | |
was healthy for the baby and whether it was healthy for me. Should I be | :39:33. | :39:37. | |
competing at a top level while being pregnant? And physically, was it | :39:38. | :39:45. | |
harder to concentrate? Was it harder to balance? Did it take a bigger | :39:46. | :39:50. | |
toll on your body than you thought? For me, the mental side became | :39:51. | :39:53. | |
easier because I started focusing more on her and worrying about that | :39:54. | :40:01. | |
rather than my golf, which took the pressure off, but physically as the | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
pregnancy went on, like I'm sure with all women, it becomes harder to | :40:05. | :40:12. | |
do. Do you think women will find it liberating to see these amazing | :40:13. | :40:16. | |
sportswomen, you know, competing with child as well, or is it an | :40:17. | :40:23. | |
extra hurdle? No, I don't think it's an extra hurdle, they are doing | :40:24. | :40:27. | |
their regular jobs. We may think it is amazing to win a Grand Slam, | :40:28. | :40:33. | |
Serena has won 23. We are never going to win them without or with a | :40:34. | :40:39. | |
pregnancy! What she has done is extraordinary and when you look at | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
the very few female sportswomen who have been threatened during their | :40:44. | :40:50. | |
careers... In football, we don't see pregnant women footballers? Not | :40:51. | :40:55. | |
many, there is one amazing example who played in the Champions League | :40:56. | :40:59. | |
final at four is pregnant but Burton need most of sport is very male | :41:00. | :41:05. | |
dominated and trying to persuade women not to have babies until they | :41:06. | :41:10. | |
retire. What Serena has done is breaking the mould and pioneering | :41:11. | :41:15. | |
and the frustrating newspaper headlines and discussion about | :41:16. | :41:17. | |
whether this is the end of her career... Most women can relate to | :41:18. | :41:23. | |
that and they will groan and think I'm just having a baby, I will come | :41:24. | :41:31. | |
back. Are there some sports where it is impossible to compete? Yes, | :41:32. | :41:38. | |
definitely. We were talking about golf, you play for the longer period | :41:39. | :41:42. | |
of time. Some sports are seen as more dangerous. Mary King competed | :41:43. | :41:47. | |
in the equestrianism. Paula Radcliffe I think said... You have | :41:48. | :41:53. | |
complimented that, she said that she lost a bit of her competitive edge | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
when she was pregnant. Do you think that is a part of it? Does that | :41:59. | :42:05. | |
sound anathema to you? That sounds like nonsense to me. Does it? When | :42:06. | :42:11. | |
Jessica Ennis-Hill announced her pregnancy a lot of the discussion | :42:12. | :42:14. | |
was about whether she would have the hunger to compete and I think that | :42:15. | :42:19. | |
is a trope that women are so fed up of hearing. It changes as in many | :42:20. | :42:24. | |
ways but it does not make us less ambitious. I'm glad we put that to | :42:25. | :42:25. | |
bed! Thank you for joining us. That's all we have time for for the | :42:26. | :42:35. | |
night but we will be back with a special from Paris. | :42:36. | :42:51. | |
The night will be mostly dry but cold in places with some patchy | :42:52. | :42:52. |