20/04/2017 Newsnight


20/04/2017

In-depth analysis with Emily Maitlis. Topics include the latest on the Paris attack, Corbyn's election speech, a profile of Philip May and Serena Williams's pregnant victory.


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Transcript


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The centre of the city has been evacuated.

:00:00.:00:11.

With an election just three days away, what impact will this

:00:12.:00:14.

The next Prime Minister of the UK, Jeremy Corbyn.

:00:15.:00:20.

He's defied the odds before - can he do it again?

:00:21.:00:25.

It's the establishment versus the people.

:00:26.:00:27.

It's our historic duty to make sure the people prevail.

:00:28.:00:34.

We'll ask the man running Labour's election campaign

:00:35.:00:36.

And what about the Conservatives - just how prepared are they?

:00:37.:00:44.

We've found evidence that the Tories don't even have candidates lined up

:00:45.:00:47.

for some of their most winnable target seats.

:00:48.:00:52.

Also tonight, the other May that could decide June.

:00:53.:00:57.

She might not act on it, but she'll listen.

:00:58.:01:02.

What part does Theresa's husband Philip play

:01:03.:01:03.

A big day for Labour today as Jeremy Corbyn

:01:04.:01:20.

We'll be speaking to the man masterminding his campaign shortly.

:01:21.:01:26.

But we begin this evening with a developing story in Paris,

:01:27.:01:28.

which has once again become the focus of a terror attack

:01:29.:01:31.

just three days before the country heads to the polls.

:01:32.:01:35.

A major police operation is ongoing tonight after a shooting

:01:36.:01:37.

The target this time around, police officers themselves.

:01:38.:01:42.

One shot dead, two others seriously wounded.

:01:43.:01:45.

Christian Fraser is close to the scene and we can go to him now.

:01:46.:01:51.

Just talk us through what you're seeing and what happening there now.

:01:52.:02:01.

We were down on the pavement and the top of Grand Armee. We have the cars

:02:02.:02:11.

going around the Arc de Triomphe. It is deserted. Armed police are on the

:02:12.:02:15.

pavements and I'd imagine that many of the people in the cafes, on the

:02:16.:02:19.

terraces and in the hotels of that part of the street earlier this

:02:20.:02:26.

evening are still in lockdown. While we were here broadcasting, around

:02:27.:02:30.

9pm local time we started to feel that there was something happening.

:02:31.:02:35.

One or two police cars were tearing down Grand Armee and then they

:02:36.:02:40.

started coming from all directions, clearly the message had gone out on

:02:41.:02:45.

the police radios that officers were needed. It got so silly at one point

:02:46.:02:49.

that there were police cars overtaking each other, they were so

:02:50.:02:52.

desperate to get there, nearly knocking down pedestrians here. Then

:02:53.:02:59.

word went out that shots had been fired and obviously the panic

:03:00.:03:02.

started to break out, so young people who were next to the eternal

:03:03.:03:08.

flame and looking at the Arc de Triomphe were running in all

:03:09.:03:12.

directions and a very jumpy police force because they didn't really no

:03:13.:03:16.

what they were dealing with. This has happened very quickly. There is

:03:17.:03:23.

an arrest warrant for the suspect. What stage is the investigation at?

:03:24.:03:27.

The police are telling us that they are not looking for anyone in this

:03:28.:03:31.

part of Paris but there is an operation going on in eastern Paris

:03:32.:03:36.

near the parliament. They have the identity of the attacker and he is

:03:37.:03:39.

known to the counterintelligence service here in France. Reuters are

:03:40.:03:46.

reporting that there is a document, an arrest warrant for a man who came

:03:47.:03:49.

into the country from Belgium and they are looking for this

:03:50.:03:53.

accomplice. France is on a state of emergency which has been extended

:03:54.:03:58.

for a fifth time until July, since the Algerian War. It will have

:03:59.:04:06.

implications, you would think, for the election which is three days

:04:07.:04:16.

away. Francois Fillon... We're losing you, I'm so sorry, I think

:04:17.:04:21.

the signal has been badly scrambled. Understandable because there's quite

:04:22.:04:23.

a big police presence and we don't know what's going on. But thanks for

:04:24.:04:26.

joining us. Anne-Elisabeth Moutet is a French

:04:27.:04:30.

journalist who lives a short distance from the scene

:04:31.:04:32.

of the attack. Fingers crossed for this signal.

:04:33.:04:40.

Thank you for joining us. It's pretty hard not to see this as a

:04:41.:04:47.

provocation of some sort, just three days before the country goes to the

:04:48.:04:54.

polls, isn't it? It's very tempting because it disrupts the democratic

:04:55.:04:58.

process in Western countries and especially a western country which,

:04:59.:05:04.

to give it its due, Francois Hollande has put it at the forefront

:05:05.:05:11.

of fighting Islamic terrorism. The country was behind him on this. You

:05:12.:05:16.

have four main candidates, 11th candidates in total, four have a

:05:17.:05:19.

chance of being in the run-off in two weeks' time and of them, two

:05:20.:05:24.

have put the emphasis on the dangers of Islamic terrorism, Marine Le Pen

:05:25.:05:31.

and also Francois Fillon. This may be the time when Francois Fillon

:05:32.:05:34.

manages to inch his way back into being in the run-off. It's

:05:35.:05:38.

interesting because I think Emmanuel Macron said earlier tonight that,

:05:39.:05:42.

the candidate of the left, this will be a threat to our daily life for

:05:43.:05:47.

years to come. I guess that's quite a gamble, isn't it, to tell people

:05:48.:05:51.

that they will have to carry on living with this? He is an

:05:52.:05:57.

intellectual, a very bright technocrat, somebody who has never

:05:58.:06:04.

run for election and he has been a young figure. It's difficult to say

:06:05.:06:08.

that he is unknown because he was the economy Minister for two years

:06:09.:06:18.

and he has run his campaign on enthusiast and, which is probably

:06:19.:06:23.

what the country needs. But when it comes to the heavy things like

:06:24.:06:28.

terrorism I'm not sure he has entirely got the atmosphere of the

:06:29.:06:33.

country right on this one. It completely contrasts with what

:06:34.:06:36.

Marine Le Pen has been saying. In concrete terms, when she talks about

:06:37.:06:41.

terrorism, terrorist attacks, what does she intends to do to stop them?

:06:42.:06:48.

Well, she certainly once a version of Frexit, meaning the Borders would

:06:49.:06:58.

close, she would like a moratorium on immigration into France and some

:06:59.:07:06.

measures she would take in the early months of her presidency. This

:07:07.:07:09.

reminds you of Donald Trump, who said he had ten measures that he

:07:10.:07:14.

would sign straightaway. The idea that she is a different politician

:07:15.:07:17.

and that she's going to come up with campaign promises and say that she's

:07:18.:07:22.

going to make them operated, even though this may not happen, it is a

:07:23.:07:28.

good of her campaign. She has already said on television that she

:07:29.:07:30.

was vindicated, that she was right all along. What she can do is going

:07:31.:07:37.

to be interesting because we already have a state of emergency in the

:07:38.:07:41.

country. So parliament voted that through and the population is

:07:42.:07:47.

broadly behind Parliament on this. It was a left-wing government that

:07:48.:07:52.

voted it in. OK, thank you very much indeed.

:07:53.:07:55.

Jeremy Corbyn is perhaps never happier than back in campaign mode.

:07:56.:07:59.

His lines today reminded his legion of supporters why they liked him:

:08:00.:08:05.

a leader unafraid to be anti-establishment,

:08:06.:08:06.

the feathers of the rich or upsetting the elites.

:08:07.:08:10.

They came to hear him in person, some said

:08:11.:08:12.

to escape the prism of a media they believe is out to get him.

:08:13.:08:15.

And whilst the polls suggest he doesn't stand a change

:08:16.:08:20.

And whilst the polls suggest he doesn't stand a chance

:08:21.:08:22.

of winning next month, Corbyn dismissed popular wisdom,

:08:23.:08:24.

reminding us that he's been underestimated not once,

:08:25.:08:26.

We thought we'd start tonight with a meaty chunk

:08:27.:08:31.

of Corbyn's message today at his campaign launch.

:08:32.:08:34.

The dividing lines in this election could not be

:08:35.:08:36.

It's the Conservatives, the party of privilege and the richest,

:08:37.:08:47.

The Labour Party that is standing up for working

:08:48.:08:58.

It's the establishment versus the people.

:08:59.:09:06.

It's our historic duty to make sure the people prevail.

:09:07.:09:13.

When we win, it is the people, not the powerful, who win.

:09:14.:09:20.

The nurse, the teacher, the small trader, the carer,

:09:21.:09:25.

the builder, the office worker, the student, the carer

:09:26.:09:27.

So there's the big picture rhetoric, but what can we expect

:09:28.:09:32.

Our policy editor Chris Cook has been assessing what we know so far

:09:33.:09:38.

of what a Corbyn government would do.

:09:39.:09:42.

Maldistribution of wealth in this country is something that's got

:09:43.:09:45.

Jeremy Corbyn rallies aren't what they used to be.

:09:46.:09:52.

After decades at the margins of his party, the long-serving

:09:53.:09:55.

And the manifesto that emerges in the next few weeks

:09:56.:10:04.

will crystallise what it means for Labour to be led from its left.

:10:05.:10:10.

We will no longer allow those at the top to leech off those

:10:11.:10:14.

who bust their guts on zero hours contracts, or those forced to make

:10:15.:10:18.

sacrifices to pay their mortgage or to pay their rent.

:10:19.:10:21.

Instead of the country's wealth being hidden in tax havens,

:10:22.:10:24.

we will put it in the hands of the people of Britain.

:10:25.:10:28.

We can say some things about what's likely to be in Labour's manifesto.

:10:29.:10:31.

For example, the party's already announced that it wants free school

:10:32.:10:34.

meals for all children in primary schools.

:10:35.:10:37.

We can also make some educated guesses.

:10:38.:10:39.

The party's campaigned recently on restoring grants for students

:10:40.:10:41.

There are also tax rises that they have highlighted.

:10:42.:10:50.

They're committed to reversing a recent cut in inheritance tax,

:10:51.:10:53.

and they talk a lot about raising corporation tax, in particular

:10:54.:10:55.

More importantly, though, we can also talk about Labour's view

:10:56.:11:03.

What they have said in very broad terms is that they are not

:11:04.:11:08.

necessarily looking for budget balance, they are looking for what

:11:09.:11:10.

is called current budget balance, which is that they are willing

:11:11.:11:13.

That would mean they could be spending in the medium-term

:11:14.:11:16.

?30-40 billion a year more than the Conservatives,

:11:17.:11:20.

so they're looking at a looser fiscal policy, as you'd expect,

:11:21.:11:23.

Beyond that, though, is less clear, especially as snap

:11:24.:11:29.

First, the party may just not have the time

:11:30.:11:34.

So what we are expecting here is more of a direction of travel.

:11:35.:11:40.

Yes, there will be some detailed policies in areas

:11:41.:11:42.

For example free school meals for all kids funded by VAT

:11:43.:11:46.

But you won't be expecting lots and lots of details

:11:47.:11:49.

You definitely can't do that in the next few weeks

:11:50.:11:54.

There will be things, I'm sure, that we will want to put

:11:55.:11:58.

into the manifesto that we won't be able to put it just yet,

:11:59.:12:01.

so the manifesto may be a rolling manifesto,

:12:02.:12:03.

in that there will be other things coming in at the end.

:12:04.:12:10.

Labour's sums have assumed a 2020 handover, not 2017.

:12:11.:12:21.

Had we had an election in 2020 on current plans,

:12:22.:12:23.

the deficit would have been significantly smaller

:12:24.:12:25.

At the moment, it's still well in excess of ?50 billion.

:12:26.:12:31.

So if the Labour Party is looking, if it is looking to get

:12:32.:12:36.

a current budget balance, a deficit of maybe 30 billion or so,

:12:37.:12:39.

that means there is still some austerity to go through in order

:12:40.:12:43.

There will need to be some tax rises or spending cuts

:12:44.:12:50.

as a fraction of national income to achieve that target.

:12:51.:12:55.

That means some Corbyn ideas with big fiscal

:12:56.:12:57.

implications might need delays, tweaks or rethinks.

:12:58.:12:59.

Keep an eye on the abolition of university tuition

:13:00.:13:02.

fees, or the seeding of a public infrastructure bank.

:13:03.:13:07.

Labour's processes also cause issues for Mr Corbyn.

:13:08.:13:10.

The third complication is how his party makes policy.

:13:11.:13:13.

It has to go through party structures.

:13:14.:13:16.

The Labour Party isn't about one person.

:13:17.:13:20.

The Labour Party is a team of people all working together.

:13:21.:13:24.

It's not about one MP, and it's not about one leader.

:13:25.:13:31.

Mr Corbyn is strongly against nuclear weapons,

:13:32.:13:34.

but Labour's leader doesn't control its manifesto on their own.

:13:35.:13:39.

And despite attempts, when it comes to Trident,

:13:40.:13:42.

I'm delighted to say that Labour is fully in favour

:13:43.:13:47.

In fact, one of the advantages of the big toing and froing

:13:48.:13:54.

that we have had in recent years on this is that we arrived

:13:55.:13:57.

I tell you this, I wouldn't be sorry if it was a 60% tax

:13:58.:14:03.

The Corbyn manifesto, then, might not be quite what he dreamed

:14:04.:14:07.

it would be back when he was out on the margins.

:14:08.:14:15.

Joining me now from Salford is Labour's Campaign

:14:16.:14:17.

Jeremy Corbyn was very clear this morning, setting out in his speech

:14:18.:14:31.

the establishment versus the people. He very helpfully listed the people,

:14:32.:14:36.

even name checking some of the baddies, but just tell us who is the

:14:37.:14:42.

establishment in this context? There is an important message, after seven

:14:43.:14:46.

years of Conservative government, what we've seen is a growth in

:14:47.:14:51.

inequality across our society. So people living and working hard in

:14:52.:14:57.

Britain today feel as if they aren't getting their fair share of their

:14:58.:15:03.

efforts. It reminds me very much of the message, clause four on the

:15:04.:15:09.

Labour Party membership card, saying that we seek as a party to create a

:15:10.:15:17.

society that benefits the many, not the few. Fundamentally that's what

:15:18.:15:21.

this election is about, making sure we have policies in place that had

:15:22.:15:26.

the many and the few. The message was clear but wasn't really was who

:15:27.:15:30.

he was talking about. He went through this list of the people, the

:15:31.:15:36.

nurse, the teacher, the carer, the builder, but who are on the other

:15:37.:15:40.

side? He said versus the establishment. If you aren't a

:15:41.:15:43.

nurse, if you're a doctor, a hospital manager, if you are a

:15:44.:15:49.

headteacher, if you are a medium-sized trader, where are you

:15:50.:15:52.

then? Are you part of the establishment?

:15:53.:15:57.

Absolutely not. Where are you, then? What we are pointing to some of the

:15:58.:16:04.

real sharp practices that have really grown in recent years. Some

:16:05.:16:10.

of those exploitative employers that make use of things like zero hours

:16:11.:16:19.

contractsin the worst possible way. Why should people that put in a

:16:20.:16:23.

decent day's work not get the same rights that others enjoyed? Forgive

:16:24.:16:29.

me... That is no longer acceptable. He didn't talk about unfair

:16:30.:16:35.

practices. He said people versus the establishment, or the establishment

:16:36.:16:38.

versus the people, and many people will be struggling to work out the

:16:39.:16:42.

night whether you are on their side, whether they are viewed as the

:16:43.:16:47.

establishment that you are against. If you are small business and you

:16:48.:16:52.

start to do well and growing too big business, do you still support them?

:16:53.:16:57.

We absolutely do, because it is about ordinary working people but

:16:58.:17:01.

then develop small businesses that become the wealth creators and

:17:02.:17:06.

employ more people. What we are talking about here is a rigged

:17:07.:17:09.

society. We are talking about from the very top of government... So the

:17:10.:17:14.

whole of the establishment is rates? No, we have had over the last six

:17:15.:17:19.

years some decisions taken by Government that have really hit

:17:20.:17:25.

people on low and average and medium incomes, whether it has been the

:17:26.:17:30.

cuts to benefits and some of the tax changes that have affected people on

:17:31.:17:35.

lower incomes as opposed to some of the tax changes that have really

:17:36.:17:41.

benefited the super-rich. So when you say super-rich, this is what I'm

:17:42.:17:45.

trying to pin down. You have already named checked the people you don't

:17:46.:17:50.

like, the Philip Greens and the Mike Ashleys and the rest of it, but now

:17:51.:17:55.

you go to the super-rich. If you are redistributing, you have to be

:17:56.:17:59.

taking away from some. Who is super-rich? Is a doctor super-rich?

:18:00.:18:05.

Is a surgeon super-rich? If you are redistributing, something has to be

:18:06.:18:08.

taken away to give it to the people you think deserve it more. You need

:18:09.:18:12.

to be a little bit patient because we will be publishing our manifesto

:18:13.:18:15.

that will have all of our commitment, all of our policies

:18:16.:18:20.

fully costed in the weeks ahead for the election campaign. But what you

:18:21.:18:26.

will see... But you set those terms today, you have made a big speech

:18:27.:18:30.

saying we are the people versus the establishment, that is why I am

:18:31.:18:35.

asking. What you will see is a programme for fairness, that ensures

:18:36.:18:39.

that those people who have really lost out and been hit hard under

:18:40.:18:41.

this Conservative government over the last seven years will get a fair

:18:42.:18:49.

say, a fair hearing, and we will build a Britain for the many and not

:18:50.:18:52.

the few. And what we have heard time and again is that the Tories are

:18:53.:18:55.

hell-bent on cuts to public services, that has been Jeremy

:18:56.:18:59.

Corbyn's line. So you will end austerity? There will be no more

:19:00.:19:03.

spending cuts after June if there is a Corbyn government, is that right?

:19:04.:19:07.

You will have to wait and see some of the exciting announcements... If

:19:08.:19:13.

you are a government ending austerity... I know you are trying

:19:14.:19:18.

to get me to preannounce the manifesto live on Newsnight, I am

:19:19.:19:21.

not going to do that. But you will be pleasantly supplies -- surprised

:19:22.:19:31.

when you see some of the policy announcements we will make. When you

:19:32.:19:35.

talk about ending austerity, the one thing people know about Corbyn's

:19:36.:19:39.

Labour Party as they don't like austerities and cuts to public

:19:40.:19:43.

spending, it should be written into concrete for you to be above say,

:19:44.:19:47.

yes, we are ending austerity, no more public spending cuts. And you

:19:48.:19:51.

will see when the manifesto is published that there is a real

:19:52.:19:54.

commitment to investing in public services, in NHS, in social care,

:19:55.:19:59.

that has really been cut back to the bone and is causing a crisis out

:20:00.:20:03.

there. You will see investment in public services because of that is

:20:04.:20:09.

the kind of society, a fairer society Labour wants to deliver. And

:20:10.:20:13.

one thing you have been clear about and John Woodcock reinforced at the

:20:14.:20:17.

end of that these is that we do know where you are on the Trident policy,

:20:18.:20:21.

you would as a party renew Trident as things stand, is that right? The

:20:22.:20:26.

Labour Party will always put the security interests of this country

:20:27.:20:31.

first. And you will have a Trident policy, but you will have a leader

:20:32.:20:34.

that wouldn't press the button, does that still stand? We will have a

:20:35.:20:39.

Prime Minister who has Trident but doesn't arrest the button? You are

:20:40.:20:44.

trying to drag me down a road here... I'm trying to get clarity.

:20:45.:20:48.

The Labour Party in Government will do nothing that puts the security of

:20:49.:20:53.

the United Kingdom at risk. Andrew Gwynne, thank you. Thank you.

:20:54.:20:57.

Theresa May stunned Westminster when she called her snap

:20:58.:20:59.

For the gamble to pay off she hopes to win a string

:21:00.:21:03.

But Newsnight has tonight learned that the Prime Minister's secrecy

:21:04.:21:07.

in calling the poll might have left her own party unprepared.

:21:08.:21:10.

We wanted to find out how prepared Theresa May's party was for the

:21:11.:21:22.

coming election, so we looked at 36 key target seats where there is a

:21:23.:21:26.

Labour MP at the moment on a majority of less than 5000, and

:21:27.:21:30.

crucially, constituencies that the analysis suggests voted for Brexit.

:21:31.:21:37.

We managed to get in touch with 20 of those seats and get an answer

:21:38.:21:41.

from them on their candidate selection, and we found that out of

:21:42.:21:45.

those 20, not a single one had yet appointed a candidate for those

:21:46.:21:52.

seats. Now, that matters of course because at the moment there is a

:21:53.:21:55.

Labour MP going around seeking re-election or starting their

:21:56.:21:59.

campaign, well bedded in, campaigning tomorrow and next week,

:22:00.:22:04.

and some of these seats told us they hadn't even started the selection

:22:05.:22:09.

process, some even had long list of 100 applicants still to wade through

:22:10.:22:13.

to get a short list, and others hadn't even begun the process at

:22:14.:22:17.

all, and it is highly unusual for a governing party to go into an

:22:18.:22:21.

election in that sort of state of unpreparedness. Thank you.

:22:22.:22:27.

The announcement of a snap election this week was one of those rare

:22:28.:22:30.

moments in politics: a genuine surprise.

:22:31.:22:31.

The fact it wasn't leaked points to a small but tightly knit coterie

:22:32.:22:34.

around Theresa May, at the very heart of

:22:35.:22:36.

May has since told us the decision was born as the couple enjoyed

:22:37.:22:41.

the fresh mountain air and isolation of Snowdonia.

:22:42.:22:42.

Philip May eschews the limelight but some say he could be the most

:22:43.:22:46.

What role does he play in the workings of Number 10?

:22:47.:22:56.

On the evening of July the 13th last year, all eyes were fixed on the

:22:57.:23:04.

last candidate left standing after the brief but bloody battle to

:23:05.:23:08.

succeed David Cameron. Out of the immediate shot of the cameras, an

:23:09.:23:12.

unassuming figure, barely known outside Westminster, looked on with

:23:13.:23:16.

pride as Britain's second female Prime Minister took office. This

:23:17.:23:22.

week, the Prime Minister stood on the own in Downing Street, but this

:23:23.:23:28.

was no lonely figure. Theresa May finally decided to take her

:23:29.:23:31.

uncharacteristic gamble in the presence of just one other person.

:23:32.:23:36.

Her husband, Philip May, during a walking holiday in Snowdonia. Philip

:23:37.:23:45.

May's central hole -- central role at a defining moment shows that

:23:46.:23:49.

here's a dip in dispensable member of her inner circle. Much attention

:23:50.:23:54.

has been paid to number ten Joint Chiefs of Staff, Nick Timothy Fiona

:23:55.:23:57.

hill, but Theresa May is loath to take any big political decision

:23:58.:23:59.

without first consulting her husband. It is truly a marriage of

:24:00.:24:06.

equals. I think it is hard to contest the view that Philip

:24:07.:24:12.

Hammond, the Chancellor, is only the second most important Philip living

:24:13.:24:18.

on Downing Street. Philip is clearly acting informally as an adviser to

:24:19.:24:22.

Theresa May, probably much as Denis Thatcher did to Margaret Thatcher.

:24:23.:24:27.

He will stand up to her, and I think sometimes fittest ideas against him,

:24:28.:24:32.

and he will put a different point of view. She always listens to him. She

:24:33.:24:37.

will listen. She might not act on it, but she will listen. Friends who

:24:38.:24:43.

knew the couple when they met 40 years earlier would never have bet

:24:44.:24:46.

that it would be Theresa May walking into Number 10. If you look back

:24:47.:24:52.

into the history rather than how it turned out, you might have thought,

:24:53.:24:57.

well, Phil would go into politics, but he didn't. But I think he has

:24:58.:25:03.

been very supportive, and that is what you see today, that the

:25:04.:25:05.

interest has stemmed from his politics, but Theresa is the one who

:25:06.:25:13.

went mainstream. Oxford, a cradle of ambition for many wannabe Prime

:25:14.:25:17.

Minister is, provided a lyrical setting for the start of the Made

:25:18.:25:22.

partnership. The future Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto played

:25:23.:25:27.

Cupid to what seemed an unlikely pairing. He was two years below her.

:25:28.:25:37.

To be honest, he seemed a bit young, to a 20-year-old. He only just past

:25:38.:25:41.

the height test, because Theresa liked her boyfriends to be at least

:25:42.:25:48.

as tall as her, and I think he only just about past master.

:25:49.:25:56.

# Watch that scene # Digging the dancing Queen.

:25:57.:26:03.

In those heady days of the 1970s, it turned out that Philip May wasn't

:26:04.:26:07.

her first Oxford romance. She certainly seems to be trialling a

:26:08.:26:11.

fair number! I'm not sure many got very serious. But there were a

:26:12.:26:17.

number she went out with. But once Philip appeared on the scene, it

:26:18.:26:22.

rather felt like the rest were nowhere. Theresa May made what one

:26:23.:26:30.

friend described as desultory attempts to pursue a career at the

:26:31.:26:34.

Oxford union. She never held office herself, but returned to her alma

:26:35.:26:39.

mater as her future husband embarked on his own union career. Within a

:26:40.:26:45.

year of escorting one well-known figure two A1978 debate, Philip May

:26:46.:26:55.

had secured the coveted post of union president for himself. Around

:26:56.:27:00.

the time Margaret Thatcher entered Number 10 with her own low-key

:27:01.:27:06.

consort in tow. He was very ambitious. I think it was fair to

:27:07.:27:11.

say that he wasn't an exciting speaker. He was a worthy,

:27:12.:27:14.

middle-of-the-road conservative. There were a lot of pretty colourful

:27:15.:27:21.

people around who I think were more obviously going somewhere as

:27:22.:27:26.

politicians. The following year, Philip May married Theresa brazier.

:27:27.:27:32.

Shortly afterwards, Theresa May, an only child, lost both her parents.

:27:33.:27:39.

I had huge supporting my husband, and that was very important for me.

:27:40.:27:41.

He was a real rock from the. Theresa and Philip May knuckled down

:27:42.:27:56.

in the city in the 1980s and it underwent the Big Bang up evil, but

:27:57.:28:07.

they shunned the yuppie lifestyle to focus on fundraising. -- the Big

:28:08.:28:16.

Bang up evil. As the local agent, my job was to make sure we kept the

:28:17.:28:20.

local organisation going and focused on raising some cash and some money,

:28:21.:28:24.

too, and she was very much and they were very much the leaders of the

:28:25.:28:32.

local Conservative Party. Philip May. ABBA 1996 Conservative Party

:28:33.:28:38.

conference, the 29-year-old Philip May showed he still had ambitions on

:28:39.:28:44.

the national stage. I guess that most people would think that foreign

:28:45.:28:47.

affairs isn't exactly a very sexy subject. The delivery was eight had

:28:48.:28:51.

wooden, although he had a clear message on one contentious issue.

:28:52.:28:58.

Britain has been a member of the European Community for 13 years and

:28:59.:29:01.

we have helped to change many things in Europe for the good, and I hope

:29:02.:29:05.

we will continue to do so. We need to strengthen the economic base of

:29:06.:29:09.

the community by breaking down the barriers to the free movement of

:29:10.:29:16.

goods and services. But you know Europe is not just an economic

:29:17.:29:19.

community, it is a political community, too. In the early 1990s,

:29:20.:29:27.

it was Theresa May who stood for Parliament. Unsuccessfully. By then,

:29:28.:29:32.

Philip May's own political ambitions were waning. I asked him years later

:29:33.:29:42.

after Theresa became an MP if he thought he might become one too, and

:29:43.:29:48.

he said, no, we have discussed it, but we think one in the family is

:29:49.:29:52.

probably quite sufficient. And I think they felt that it would be too

:29:53.:29:59.

much work, and drawn too many ways. And he does in awful lot in the

:30:00.:30:02.

constituency. Again, it is the support side. And he always has. He

:30:03.:30:12.

sort of supports her job. So, Philip May decided to

:30:13.:30:16.

concentrate on his City career in asset management, with a focus on

:30:17.:30:21.

client relations. He was not flashy and was low-key as his wife's

:30:22.:30:27.

political career rocketed after her election to Parliament in 1997. One

:30:28.:30:32.

senior Tory MP who has known the couple since Oxford believes that

:30:33.:30:37.

Philip May's City background leaves him well-placed to advise the Prime

:30:38.:30:39.

Minister on the dangers posed by Brexit.

:30:40.:30:44.

They both know, I think it's becoming more evident, that in

:30:45.:30:51.

public policy too that leaving the EU and returning to the WTO rules

:30:52.:30:57.

would be a high risk strategy and we need a new deal. The financial

:30:58.:31:01.

services sector in particular needs to have a way of getting access to

:31:02.:31:06.

Continental European markets. He knows a lot about that subject from

:31:07.:31:12.

his background in insurance and other parts of the financial world

:31:13.:31:15.

and I expect he's feeding those thoughts in. At a time when many

:31:16.:31:19.

contemporaries of theirs are retiring, Theresa May's new role has

:31:20.:31:23.

prompted her husband to make a career change of his own. He's still

:31:24.:31:29.

working four days a week. He just said he'd given up one day a week to

:31:30.:31:37.

run a private side. He said that Theresa has no time for it. Over the

:31:38.:31:43.

coming weeks, Theresa May will portray herself as the ultimate safe

:31:44.:31:50.

pair of hands. No doubt steady Phil will help to reinforce that message.

:31:51.:31:54.

They aren't the most exciting people but as you know in politics, being

:31:55.:32:03.

dial isn't always an advantage -- being dull isn't a disadvantage.

:32:04.:32:09.

Perhaps what has taken the Prime Minister to the top would be less

:32:10.:32:16.

easy without her rock. Phillips says to me, Theresa says it is a job and

:32:17.:32:20.

you have to put it to one side when you've finished it and I think the

:32:21.:32:24.

fact that she can go home developed and talk things through with him and

:32:25.:32:31.

put it aside is a way of surviving it -- go home and talk to Philip.

:32:32.:32:36.

Like many broadcasters, we entered into the spirit

:32:37.:32:38.

of election 2015 rather excited about our polling models.

:32:39.:32:40.

And the next day you might recall we pulled

:32:41.:32:50.

the plug and sent it off to polling index heaven.

:32:51.:32:53.

Well, who'd have thought we'd be back here so quickly?

:32:54.:32:56.

So can we trust the pollsters, and what have they learned

:32:57.:32:59.

In a moment we'll speak to Newsnight's former pet

:33:00.:33:09.

But first here is Joe Twyman, from the leading pollsters, YouGov,

:33:10.:33:13.

to have a go at explaining what he thinks went wrong,

:33:14.:33:16.

The last few years have shown that we pollsters don't

:33:17.:33:19.

It's worth remembering that we don't always get things wrong either.

:33:20.:33:23.

The majority of election polls since World War II

:33:24.:33:30.

have on average been within 2% of the actual vote share.

:33:31.:33:33.

Only at one election has the average error

:33:34.:33:36.

No final published poll has ever been more than 6% out.

:33:37.:33:42.

The accuracy improved in 2001, 2005 and 2010 but in 2015, they were not

:33:43.:33:46.

This error was due to a number of things, such as the way we model

:33:47.:33:53.

voter turnout but the key factor was the difficulty in getting

:33:54.:33:56.

We've gone back to the millions of data points we'd previously

:33:57.:34:04.

collected and analysed them to identify the specific key groups

:34:05.:34:07.

within our sample who need to be better represented in our surveys.

:34:08.:34:10.

People who are not as interested in politics, for example.

:34:11.:34:12.

It then becomes a matter of recruitment.

:34:13.:34:14.

YouGov has spent hundreds of thousands of pounds last year

:34:15.:34:17.

alone recruiting specifically targeted people to sign up

:34:18.:34:22.

Since the last election, big data has also come into play.

:34:23.:34:37.

Being able to draw on a host of additional variables and historic

:34:38.:34:40.

data that is available on our servers has been essential

:34:41.:34:42.

in developing a greater, deeper understanding

:34:43.:34:43.

No matter how well we do, however, we cannot abolish

:34:44.:34:47.

Polling is an inexact science and even the most perfect polls

:34:48.:34:51.

will still have a margin of error associated with them

:34:52.:34:53.

and they are only ever a snapshot of public opinion at the given

:34:54.:34:56.

Chris Hanretty was our man in election 2015, and he's back now.

:34:57.:35:01.

Nice to see you, Chris. Do you agree that it was the difficulty in

:35:02.:35:08.

getting people to take part, there was a lack of enough data? Yes, the

:35:09.:35:14.

key problem, as you heard, is one of recruiting people, how do you get

:35:15.:35:19.

people who don't really care about politics to answer questions about

:35:20.:35:25.

it? A tricky thing and paying them, working harder to recruit them, they

:35:26.:35:29.

both ways of addressing these problems but how will we know

:35:30.:35:33.

whether efforts have worked? We'll know after this election. What do

:35:34.:35:39.

you do, then? I mean, can you assume that is something you don't know and

:35:40.:35:43.

account for it, or does that not work? You can try and look for

:35:44.:35:49.

characteristics that matter based on what you know about politics. One

:35:50.:35:53.

example, education. The referendum showed clearly that education is

:35:54.:35:59.

structuring our political views more than it has done in the past so

:36:00.:36:02.

polling companies are making sure that the composition of the sample

:36:03.:36:07.

matches what we know from the census about educational qualifications and

:36:08.:36:10.

how they match up with age, so they are getting the right kind of

:36:11.:36:15.

people. The point was made about big data. So much is known about us now,

:36:16.:36:20.

even from our smartphones, it should be easier to read, people's

:36:21.:36:27.

political allegiances and biases. It's a question of matching back to

:36:28.:36:31.

the true value in the population. We know from things like the census how

:36:32.:36:38.

many people are aged 18-25. We don't know, for example, how many people

:36:39.:36:44.

watch Casualties and Newsnight. Those people may affect political

:36:45.:36:47.

attitudes but we can't tell the population value. You need some

:36:48.:36:50.

baseline truth against which you can measure yourself. This is

:36:51.:36:58.

interesting, the pollsters, I think you were down with journalists and

:36:59.:37:01.

us at one point in terms of the public perception! Do you think it's

:37:02.:37:07.

about getting the numbers right, or is it about landing on the

:37:08.:37:09.

Brightside of the coin? I think polling companies unfairly get

:37:10.:37:15.

pilloried based on which side they ended up -- on the right side of the

:37:16.:37:20.

coin. If you go back to the reverend, a lot of polls said that

:37:21.:37:26.

Leave was ahead. Most pollsters said that it would go for Remain and that

:37:27.:37:30.

is what stuck. People feel that the polls called it for Remain and

:37:31.:37:34.

therefore they are rubbish, but they all said it would be close. In terms

:37:35.:37:40.

of what you're doing with your modelling, this has been sprung on

:37:41.:37:44.

everyone so you probably haven't got time, have you, to get something

:37:45.:37:49.

that feels accurate? I'm probably going to steer clear of making any

:37:50.:37:54.

firm forecasts for this election. This election has taken, I think,

:37:55.:37:57.

certainly me by surprise. Thank you for joining us.

:37:58.:38:00.

When you found out Serena Williams was pregnant when she won her 23rd

:38:01.:38:03.

grand slam without dropping a set, what was your reaction?

:38:04.:38:06.

Elation that pregnancy can be that liberating?

:38:07.:38:08.

Or desperation that such a ridiculously high

:38:09.:38:09.

The pregnant world is divided between those who hate

:38:10.:38:16.

being viewed as ill or incapable for nine long months,

:38:17.:38:19.

and those who who frankly, wish the world would cut

:38:20.:38:21.

Here to discuss this are Anna Kessel, sports journalist

:38:22.:38:26.

for the Guardian and the Observer and chair of Women in

:38:27.:38:28.

Football, and Liz Young, a professional golfer.

:38:29.:38:31.

She competed in the British Open last year when she was

:38:32.:38:33.

Liz, I'm fascinated, not just by how it felt, in terms of your body and

:38:34.:38:45.

your fatigue, but the perception of you, golfing, when you were so

:38:46.:38:50.

heavily pregnant. Was there a lot of stigma about seeing a woman trying

:38:51.:38:55.

to do competitive sport? I definitely had some second looks

:38:56.:38:58.

from people who didn't realise that I was pregnant. I turned around and

:38:59.:39:03.

the bump was showering and I have a second glance. On the whole, from my

:39:04.:39:08.

friends on the tour and colleagues, they were very supportive and

:39:09.:39:13.

congratulating me in doing it. On the other hand, I got some attention

:39:14.:39:18.

that was, is this the right thing I should be doing, due to looking

:39:19.:39:24.

after my unborn child? You weren't meant to be a competitive person

:39:25.:39:29.

with a bump? Some people in the papers were questioning whether it

:39:30.:39:32.

was healthy for the baby and whether it was healthy for me. Should I be

:39:33.:39:37.

competing at a top level while being pregnant? And physically, was it

:39:38.:39:45.

harder to concentrate? Was it harder to balance? Did it take a bigger

:39:46.:39:50.

toll on your body than you thought? For me, the mental side became

:39:51.:39:53.

easier because I started focusing more on her and worrying about that

:39:54.:40:01.

rather than my golf, which took the pressure off, but physically as the

:40:02.:40:04.

pregnancy went on, like I'm sure with all women, it becomes harder to

:40:05.:40:12.

do. Do you think women will find it liberating to see these amazing

:40:13.:40:16.

sportswomen, you know, competing with child as well, or is it an

:40:17.:40:23.

extra hurdle? No, I don't think it's an extra hurdle, they are doing

:40:24.:40:27.

their regular jobs. We may think it is amazing to win a Grand Slam,

:40:28.:40:33.

Serena has won 23. We are never going to win them without or with a

:40:34.:40:39.

pregnancy! What she has done is extraordinary and when you look at

:40:40.:40:43.

the very few female sportswomen who have been threatened during their

:40:44.:40:50.

careers... In football, we don't see pregnant women footballers? Not

:40:51.:40:55.

many, there is one amazing example who played in the Champions League

:40:56.:40:59.

final at four is pregnant but Burton need most of sport is very male

:41:00.:41:05.

dominated and trying to persuade women not to have babies until they

:41:06.:41:10.

retire. What Serena has done is breaking the mould and pioneering

:41:11.:41:15.

and the frustrating newspaper headlines and discussion about

:41:16.:41:17.

whether this is the end of her career... Most women can relate to

:41:18.:41:23.

that and they will groan and think I'm just having a baby, I will come

:41:24.:41:31.

back. Are there some sports where it is impossible to compete? Yes,

:41:32.:41:38.

definitely. We were talking about golf, you play for the longer period

:41:39.:41:42.

of time. Some sports are seen as more dangerous. Mary King competed

:41:43.:41:47.

in the equestrianism. Paula Radcliffe I think said... You have

:41:48.:41:53.

complimented that, she said that she lost a bit of her competitive edge

:41:54.:41:58.

when she was pregnant. Do you think that is a part of it? Does that

:41:59.:42:05.

sound anathema to you? That sounds like nonsense to me. Does it? When

:42:06.:42:11.

Jessica Ennis-Hill announced her pregnancy a lot of the discussion

:42:12.:42:14.

was about whether she would have the hunger to compete and I think that

:42:15.:42:19.

is a trope that women are so fed up of hearing. It changes as in many

:42:20.:42:24.

ways but it does not make us less ambitious. I'm glad we put that to

:42:25.:42:25.

bed! Thank you for joining us. That's all we have time for for the

:42:26.:42:35.

night but we will be back with a special from Paris.

:42:36.:42:51.

The night will be mostly dry but cold in places with some patchy

:42:52.:42:52.

Topics include the latest on the Paris attack, Corbyn's election speech, a profile of Philip May and Serena Williams's pregnant victory. Plus, are Tories ready for the vote, and can we trust the polls?

With Emily Maitlis.