21/04/2017 Newsnight


21/04/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines, with Evan Davis in Paris and Naga Munchetty in London.


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Transcript


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In half an hour from now, the French election campaign

:00:09.:00:13.

By law, no party message can be broadcast, no

:00:14.:00:16.

The end of the first round of an election,

:00:17.:00:23.

The killing of a policeman last night has added

:00:24.:00:29.

The poll leader, Emmanuel Macron, says no-one should be trying

:00:30.:00:39.

to score political points out of the shooting.

:00:40.:00:42.

We'll ask the Front National's campaign coordinator why

:00:43.:00:44.

And we journey deep into the heart of France.

:00:45.:01:02.

It says here that this monument symbolises the centre of gravity of

:01:03.:01:04.

continental France. Meanwhile, here at home,

:01:05.:01:06.

in our election campaign, Theresa May made a commitment

:01:07.:01:08.

on foreign aid that Let's be clear, the 0.7% commitment

:01:09.:01:20.

remains and will remain. We need to look at how that money is spent and

:01:21.:01:23.

make sure we are able to spend that money in the most effective way.

:01:24.:01:27.

Jeremy Corbyn has been telling Labour's story on the trail.

:01:28.:01:34.

Frightened of the bear, this big Bear?

:01:35.:01:36.

Party political pledges are being made.

:01:37.:01:38.

How much will Brexit determine what this election comes down to?

:01:39.:01:56.

Hello, mild evening in Paris, as it counts to an election

:01:57.:02:03.

that promises change - whoever wins.

:02:04.:02:04.

Hugely consequential for the EU, for Brexit and for the people here.

:02:05.:02:07.

Today, the last day of the campaign was of course, the day overshadowed

:02:08.:02:10.

by the killing of a police officer last night, just a few

:02:11.:02:13.

Be clear, this has not been the same sort of shock

:02:14.:02:17.

as previous incidents, not at all, life has

:02:18.:02:19.

But it has affected the election campaign.

:02:20.:02:22.

The fact that the killer - named today as Karim Cheurfi -

:02:23.:02:25.

was known to the authorities, had been in jail before and had

:02:26.:02:29.

previously attacked a police officer obviously became an election issue.

:02:30.:02:33.

Does that benefit the candidates of the right?

:02:34.:02:35.

Two of them made an argument that they would be tougher

:02:36.:02:38.

on terrorism today - earning a rebuke from

:02:39.:02:39.

What we know is that we already have an unprecedentedly

:02:40.:02:45.

No voters anywhere are getting as wide a range

:02:46.:02:50.

Populist right, populist left, traditional conservative,

:02:51.:02:54.

Any of the top four candidates could make it

:02:55.:03:00.

Paris in spring, the Arc de Triomphe's little brother, celebrate

:03:01.:03:22.

Napoleon's victories and harks back to time the country was divided

:03:23.:03:26.

between Conservative loyalists and liberals inspired by the French and

:03:27.:03:32.

France has divisions today that are coming to a head in an election that

:03:33.:03:41.

is in effect a four horse race. You've heard of Marine le Pen, tough

:03:42.:03:45.

on law and order and immigrants. She was quick to judgment on yesterday's

:03:46.:03:50.

killing. TRANSLATION: For ten years on the government is right and left

:03:51.:03:52.

everything has been done to make sure we lose this war. We need a

:03:53.:03:58.

presidency that acts and protects. And here is anti-globalisation and

:03:59.:04:04.

your Broe sceptic and anti-NATO. He's on the left and has a canny

:04:05.:04:07.

sense of and theatre. It's easy to imagine voters

:04:08.:04:26.

switching between Jean-Luc Melenchon and Marine le Pen, because even

:04:27.:04:31.

though they are so far apart on many things, they are on the same side of

:04:32.:04:36.

the great divide. Ah you to hell and want to change everything? One

:04:37.:04:40.

unlikely outcome on Sunday evening is that the two of them go through

:04:41.:04:45.

to the final run-off. Unlikely, because they are actually fighting

:04:46.:04:49.

over some of the same voters, but were that to happen, it would be a

:04:50.:04:54.

Brexit moment for France, it would be a nightmare for the European

:04:55.:04:58.

Union and it would be a good time to sell LE Eurocurrency might have. --

:04:59.:05:02.

any euro currency. That's what the top candidates are trying to stop,

:05:03.:05:06.

also promising change, Emmanuel Macron is leading in the polls.

:05:07.:05:12.

Centrist, a social and economic liberal, and yesterday he secured

:05:13.:05:15.

the Obama vote. Hello Mr President, how are you? Immanuel? Yes, exactly.

:05:16.:05:25.

I'm doing very well. But he's young, untried and he worked in banking.

:05:26.:05:31.

Fortunately for Emmanuel Macron, his rival has worse scandals against him

:05:32.:05:34.

than that and has struggled to change the subject. TRANSLATION:

:05:35.:05:40.

It's not just as they want, it's to break me, and not just me, it's the

:05:41.:05:47.

right they want a break. The polls say of the four, and Marine le Pen

:05:48.:05:50.

and Emmanuel Macron are most likely to go through, but are they right?

:05:51.:05:55.

What is most striking in this election is that one of the two

:05:56.:06:01.

favourite candidates, Emmanuel Macron, he gained ground and is now

:06:02.:06:06.

better than he was, but he still has a proportion of voters that are not

:06:07.:06:11.

sure that their choice is definitive, that they will go and

:06:12.:06:16.

vote for him. Marine le Pen's voters, are they not more committed?

:06:17.:06:23.

That's one of the characteristics of National front voters. When you look

:06:24.:06:28.

at the outside candidates, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Marine le Pen, six of the

:06:29.:06:32.

French candidates we never talk about but whose posters be spoiled

:06:33.:06:35.

this otherwise beautiful city, their radical in their own way. Take all

:06:36.:06:41.

of them together, their totals in the opinion polls come to almost

:06:42.:06:47.

exactly 50%. And what that implies is this country is almost evenly

:06:48.:06:51.

divided between those who want to overthrow the system and those who

:06:52.:06:56.

want to adapt it. That's why one really natural outcome would be for

:06:57.:07:02.

a final showdown between the two torchbearers of those sentiments.

:07:03.:07:07.

Marine le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. He is expected to be the next

:07:08.:07:12.

president in two weeks, but no one can be sure. Spring is the best time

:07:13.:07:16.

to be in Paris, everyone knows that, and this is a spring that promises

:07:17.:07:19.

to be like no other. The French polls are rather

:07:20.:07:21.

interesting by the way - they have been clustering together,

:07:22.:07:26.

and remarkably consistent; that either gives you the confidence

:07:27.:07:28.

to believe their predictions Or, that the pollsters have some

:07:29.:07:31.

sort of flawed group-think. But there has not been a poll

:07:32.:07:34.

since February that's not made So to learn more about him, I spoke

:07:35.:07:39.

last night to Benjamin Griveaux, the main spokesman of his party,

:07:40.:07:45.

En Marche. And began by asking him

:07:46.:07:47.

who he wanted to come second. You know, French voters will decide

:07:48.:07:56.

who will be our opponent, but if we follow the polls,

:07:57.:07:59.

it should be Marine le Pen. She's leading every poll

:08:00.:08:03.

since two years now. Even if the polls are not that good

:08:04.:08:07.

for her right now, she is still Populism in France, and it's

:08:08.:08:11.

difficult to define, but we kind of know what we're

:08:12.:08:18.

talking about when we use the term. You have Marine le Pen,

:08:19.:08:22.

Jean-Luc Melenchon, you've got another seven or eight candidates

:08:23.:08:26.

who you would describe as in the same vein

:08:27.:08:29.

as one of those two. Their support adds up to 50%, half

:08:30.:08:34.

the French population, doesn't it? The main issue, I think,

:08:35.:08:37.

is unemployment. We have a 10% rate of

:08:38.:08:41.

unemployment in France. We have 9 million people under

:08:42.:08:44.

the poverty level right now, and people just want to get rid

:08:45.:08:49.

of them, want to get rid of the usual solution

:08:50.:08:52.

that the Conservative and the Labour Party in France

:08:53.:08:56.

propose to them since 30 years. And those two main parties,

:08:57.:09:00.

we should remind everybody, are doing very badly in the polls

:09:01.:09:02.

when it comes to this But your candidate, Emmanuel Macron,

:09:03.:09:06.

is painting himself Your candidate, the change

:09:07.:09:10.

candidate, has worked for the Rothschilds,

:09:11.:09:17.

and he's worked for He went to the top French school,

:09:18.:09:18.

of course, so he knows What he did, and he took a huge risk

:09:19.:09:24.

when he launched his movement. I mean nobody had ever done

:09:25.:09:32.

that before in France, because usually if you want to run

:09:33.:09:36.

for president, you start by being a congressman

:09:37.:09:40.

for ten years or 15 years, you find a territory where you can

:09:41.:09:44.

be elected, where people vote for you as a mayor,

:09:45.:09:49.

and then as a congressman, or maybe as a senator,

:09:50.:09:52.

then you are allowed Should the British be scared

:09:53.:09:54.

of Macron winning this election? Because he is the most pro-European

:09:55.:09:59.

of the major candidates, and, to some extent,

:10:00.:10:02.

maybe the least sympathetic to a country that is trying

:10:03.:10:04.

to negotiate its withdrawal. He visited Theresa May

:10:05.:10:09.

last February. You know, he respects the votes

:10:10.:10:13.

of the British people. As your Prime Minister says,

:10:14.:10:19.

"Brexit means Brexit". So you need to have not punitive

:10:20.:10:24.

approach of Brexit, for sure, A responsible and a clear one,

:10:25.:10:27.

but obviously what we want, what the British are seeking

:10:28.:10:32.

in these negotiations, it is kind of access to bits

:10:33.:10:36.

of the single market and the Customs To access the single market,

:10:37.:10:39.

you need to have a full freedom of movement and you need to pay

:10:40.:10:44.

a financial contribution That, I think, is telling me that

:10:45.:10:49.

you're going to be quite hard... We can work on, of course,

:10:50.:10:55.

long-term agreements with the UK. I mean, France and UK

:10:56.:11:02.

remains two close friends, and we will have to work probably

:11:03.:11:06.

on strategy key issues, defence, I did want to just

:11:07.:11:10.

finish on security. Does that play, do you think it has

:11:11.:11:15.

an effect on the election, an election in which people

:11:16.:11:22.

are feeling scared of change, potentially, feeling

:11:23.:11:25.

that the country is in Do you think when there

:11:26.:11:28.

are attacks of any kind, I mean, of course it takes a certain

:11:29.:11:31.

place in this election. Of course we all have in mind

:11:32.:11:38.

these images of Nice and the 14th of July and so on,

:11:39.:11:42.

but I think that when you have a responsible

:11:43.:11:46.

agenda on terrorism, French people are also

:11:47.:11:52.

responsible people. They don't want their liberties,

:11:53.:11:57.

their civil rights to be abolished in the name of fighting terrorism

:11:58.:12:03.

and so on. We are very much attached to our

:12:04.:12:09.

liberties and our civil rights. Benjamin Griveaux, thanks very

:12:10.:12:12.

much indeed, thank you. We're joined by Jean Messiha,

:12:13.:12:14.

who is campaign coordinator Very good evening to you. Your

:12:15.:12:35.

candidate made politics of the murder of the policeman yesterday,

:12:36.:12:39.

didn't she? I wouldn't say that. I think Marine le Pen has been talking

:12:40.:12:44.

about this risk and this threat for months and years now, and she was

:12:45.:12:49.

the only one, the only candidate to talk about that, the only

:12:50.:12:55.

candidate... The only candidate to have talked about terrorism? Yes, in

:12:56.:13:00.

this campaign she is the only candidate to have talked about

:13:01.:13:04.

terrorism, to talk about the risk of terrorism and also the only

:13:05.:13:08.

candidate to have asked the actual... Do you think is

:13:09.:13:12.

appropriate the day before a policeman is buried to make a highly

:13:13.:13:17.

divisive speech, at a time in the country... A very divisive speech.

:13:18.:13:24.

It wasn't a divisive speech. She blames the politicians. Yes, because

:13:25.:13:28.

we believe all that happened in the past years in the terrorist field

:13:29.:13:32.

could have been avoided if serious steps would have been taken to

:13:33.:13:37.

tackle them. She mentioned some steps today that were essentially

:13:38.:13:42.

about deporting people, foreign and being investigated, by nationality.

:13:43.:13:48.

Yes, blacklisted people. How would that have helped in the case of

:13:49.:13:53.

yesterday? He was born in north-east Paris, how would that have helped?

:13:54.:13:58.

He was followed, actually, by the police. How would it have helped to

:13:59.:14:04.

deport him? He was liberated before his time... How would talking about

:14:05.:14:10.

deporting people have helped in this case, a man born just outside Paris?

:14:11.:14:14.

In this case it is not about deporting people, it's a lax

:14:15.:14:24.

judicial power, releasing him before his full of custody. It wouldn't

:14:25.:14:30.

have helped in this case. This morning, it's divisive to do so. No,

:14:31.:14:35.

she was talking not only about this specific case. She was talking in

:14:36.:14:40.

global, all the attacks that hit France in the last two years. It's

:14:41.:14:44.

divisive to talk about deporting foreigners.... Again, it is not

:14:45.:14:51.

deporting foreigners. We have 10,000 people who are blacklisted for

:14:52.:14:55.

security reasons. And links to terrorism, so all of those who are

:14:56.:15:00.

foreigners must be deported. The other ones who are binational must

:15:01.:15:05.

be taken off the French nationality. And the French ones will stay here.

:15:06.:15:10.

The French runs, we have an article in our law that allows us to

:15:11.:15:16.

imprison them. OK. In her comments today, Marine le Pen said the left

:15:17.:15:19.

and right have been doing everything to lose the battle against

:15:20.:15:23.

terrorism. Why did Marine le Pen, in the European Parliament on the 14th

:15:24.:15:29.

of April last year, against measures to introduce passenger name record

:15:30.:15:33.

in European flights? It is the first thing the governments in Europe said

:15:34.:15:36.

we need to do in order to protect the public. She voted against it.

:15:37.:15:46.

We are attached to individual and public liberties. What right has she

:15:47.:15:54.

got to say everyone is doing everything... The truth is they took

:15:55.:16:01.

a measure, something we all want to do. Let me answer you. PNR is a

:16:02.:16:09.

measure were all the passenger records must be gathered and

:16:10.:16:14.

transmitted to the United States agencies. We are very attached to

:16:15.:16:18.

individual liberties and it is not because we are fighting terrorism,

:16:19.:16:23.

because we will threaten the individual liberties. Do you think

:16:24.:16:31.

if Marine Le Pen wins, the bookies have put a 20% chance on that, do

:16:32.:16:35.

you think she can heal the divisions in this country are due you think

:16:36.:16:39.

she will stir up divisions? She is the only one who can heal divisions

:16:40.:16:45.

because she is the only one to call for authorities back on the streets

:16:46.:16:52.

of Paris and this state must use its authority to restore the state power

:16:53.:16:56.

in the street and if the state is stable, in this case, you will have

:16:57.:17:01.

massive terrorist attacks, more and more in quantity and there will be

:17:02.:17:06.

civil war. Thank you for talking to us.

:17:07.:17:08.

Much of the attention of this election has been on Paris and other

:17:09.:17:11.

large metropolitan areas, where the issues of terrorism

:17:12.:17:13.

and immigration have been felt most keenly.

:17:14.:17:14.

But, it's outside the capital that this election

:17:15.:17:16.

Gabriel Gatehouse has gone in search of the France's political

:17:17.:17:20.

and geographic heart ...where three different villages compete

:17:21.:17:22.

to call themselves the centre of the country.

:17:23.:17:32.

Far from the tensions of the big cities, it is here

:17:33.:17:34.

that the presidential election will be decided.

:17:35.:17:39.

We're on a journey to the heart of the country, for it is here,

:17:40.:17:43.

in the Cher region, that three small villages vie for the title

:17:44.:17:47.

We've got lines and distances and calculations, a key

:17:48.:18:03.

I don't know what it all means, but it says here that this monument

:18:04.:18:10.

symbolises the centre of gravity of continental France,

:18:11.:18:17.

not taking into account relief and excluding all islands.

:18:18.:18:20.

We're not the first to try to pinpoint what they call

:18:21.:18:22.

"La France profonde" - "Deep France".

:18:23.:18:30.

The majority of French voters live in provincial or rural communities,

:18:31.:18:37.

and yet the mayor says people here feel ignored by

:18:38.:18:39.

Politically, he says, Verdun is divided, half

:18:40.:19:07.

There is an ongoing battle here, to salvage a vanishing way of life.

:19:08.:19:13.

For many, like this lady, a promise to put French people first

:19:14.:19:16.

The issues that fuelled Brexit and Trump are at work

:19:17.:19:41.

This region is a bellwether, as the Cher votes, so

:19:42.:19:45.

does the nation, and so, our search for the geographical heart of France

:19:46.:19:49.

It says here that this ought to be the

:19:50.:19:58.

According to the calculations of the eminent mathematician and

:19:59.:20:08.

Here they've got the church on their side.

:20:09.:20:17.

Buying sausages in the central square, we

:20:18.:20:19.

meet the oldest resident of the village.

:20:20.:20:23.

94-years-old, she was in the French resistance.

:20:24.:20:26.

She ought to know a thing or two about defending

:20:27.:20:28.

"We need a President who is up to the job", she

:20:29.:20:39.

"The centre has been ignored", her daughter tells me.

:20:40.:20:46.

"But now", she adds, "deep France is stirring".

:20:47.:20:51.

Solvay is ploughing it ever dwindling pot of central government

:20:52.:20:55.

money into renovating local businesses.

:20:56.:20:57.

In this way, the mayor tells me they hope to avoid the fate

:20:58.:21:02.

Our search for the centre of France takes us to our final

:21:03.:21:30.

contender Bruere-Allichamps, where they have a claim

:21:31.:21:33.

that is perhaps even stronger than science or the church.

:21:34.:21:39.

This is a third century Roman milestone.

:21:40.:21:44.

It was moved to this ancient crossroads in 1799,

:21:45.:21:47.

and it says here that I tradition this spot is designated

:21:48.:21:50.

At the bistro at the centre of France, the mayor

:21:51.:22:00.

is doing his bit to keep alive the tradition of the four

:22:01.:22:02.

Unemployment in La Cher is more than 10%.

:22:03.:22:21.

Once upon a time people would have turned to the Communist Party.

:22:22.:22:43.

Local polls reflect the picture nationwide, but

:22:44.:22:44.

We came across a supporter trying to give a last-minute boost to the

:22:45.:22:51.

I think the French are very provocative, but they

:22:52.:23:00.

At the time of voting, they are more balanced

:23:01.:23:08.

and they think better and they don't explode.

:23:09.:23:10.

So I have good hope, I have good hope, I keep my fingers

:23:11.:23:13.

For years La France profonde has languished on the

:23:14.:23:20.

political periphery, and if Trump and Brexit teaches anything,

:23:21.:23:22.

Don't underestimate the power of a heartland scorned.

:23:23.:23:37.

We're joined by two journalists who've followed French politics

:23:38.:23:42.

Christine Ockrent was editor and chief of the L'Express

:23:43.:23:45.

and Pierre Haski is the founding editor of Rue 89.

:23:46.:23:49.

You know them because they have been on the show a lot. Normally you end

:23:50.:23:58.

these things with your predictions, but I want to start by asking what

:23:59.:24:03.

your predictions are. I wish you would not ask. This campaign has

:24:04.:24:08.

been full of surprises and the latest polls to indicate always the

:24:09.:24:14.

same trend, but in such a narrow circle. Macron is still ahead, Le

:24:15.:24:23.

Pen comes second, but Fillon has come up as well. I think, it is too

:24:24.:24:36.

early to tell. What do you think, Macron and Le Pen through to the

:24:37.:24:41.

second round? That is what the polls say and normally that is what it

:24:42.:24:46.

should be. I would not exclude a surprise, because we still have a

:24:47.:24:51.

large section of the population that is undecided and we see it in our

:24:52.:24:55.

dinner parties, families, people are still asking what they should vote.

:24:56.:25:01.

There is really this uncertainty. There is a big thing in the Brexit

:25:02.:25:06.

votes and the trumpet votes, the turnout of people and sometimes

:25:07.:25:11.

people who did not usually go out and vote in large numbers, but who

:25:12.:25:16.

did turn out, bigger than pollsters expected and presumably that

:25:17.:25:22.

benefits Le Pen. Our system is so different, we have two rounds, it is

:25:23.:25:27.

a majority vote, it has nothing to do with the referendum. That is a

:25:28.:25:32.

simple question to a complex issue and it is one answer and it has

:25:33.:25:36.

nothing to do with the American system. The turnout is usually the

:25:37.:25:46.

key. If the turnout is low, that will favour Le Pen because she has a

:25:47.:25:52.

much more solid constituency as a base. Why are the Macron voters

:25:53.:26:00.

softer? They seem to be less committed. He is the new kid on the

:26:01.:26:07.

block. He is not tested. He is a very limited experience. He has some

:26:08.:26:13.

aspects of his personality which puzzle people. He has been a banker.

:26:14.:26:21.

He has sometimes got this charismatic way of talking in his

:26:22.:26:25.

beatings. He has some aspects of his programme that are liberal and

:26:26.:26:29.

others that are very social and moderate. Who is he really? A lot of

:26:30.:26:36.

people hesitate and I think people are tempted by Macron. It is a new

:26:37.:26:44.

experience, he has got used and this country is longing for someone,

:26:45.:26:50.

someone who incarnates the future and not the past. Do the Socialists

:26:51.:26:57.

and the Republicans, who could quite easily come forth and faith... Which

:26:58.:27:06.

means get out of the sea. That is amazing. Do they come back from

:27:07.:27:11.

that? Is that terminal for them? I think they probably will murder one

:27:12.:27:19.

another before... Seriously. It will be absolutely bloody, seen among the

:27:20.:27:28.

Conservatives and the Socialists. When Macron launched his career, he

:27:29.:27:33.

called it a movement. I think that is very significant. I think the

:27:34.:27:39.

party system has exhausted its purpose and its life. People today

:27:40.:27:43.

want to be involved in politics, people are not out of politics, they

:27:44.:27:51.

want to take part differently and I think our old party system has

:27:52.:27:55.

really reached the end of the road. Sometimes you compare elections and

:27:56.:28:00.

say it is like the one in 1983 or whatever. This is not like any of

:28:01.:28:06.

them. This is absolutely unique and I think there is not only a

:28:07.:28:12.

generation of change, but there is a kind of mix of Democratic city, at

:28:13.:28:18.

least with the system as it has been going for years, always the same

:28:19.:28:23.

people. At the same time, how great deal of energy and a great deal of

:28:24.:28:29.

resilience. Last night, Paris was supposed to be on fire. This

:28:30.:28:35.

morning, first of all Paris was not on fire and secondly, this morning

:28:36.:28:42.

people were jogging. What is so striking, the voters here have got

:28:43.:28:46.

the most fantastic choice. No one can say there is not the full

:28:47.:28:55.

spectrum. That is one of the issues. You have a choice that is different

:28:56.:29:00.

from the usual line. It is not just right and left what we have had for

:29:01.:29:06.

30 years, we are unhappy with the right and vote for the left and the

:29:07.:29:09.

other way around, this time the dividing line is also about Europe,

:29:10.:29:17.

open country, cross country and that crisscrosses every political family

:29:18.:29:21.

and that makes this election different and also more crucial. The

:29:22.:29:31.

clock has struck midnight in Paris. What a relief!

:29:32.:29:34.

All right, that is all we have time for.

:29:35.:29:36.

The estimated result of Round 1 will be at seven

:29:37.:29:38.

It's not an exit poll, it's based on sample counts from

:29:39.:29:42.

And they'll call the result as long as it isn't too close.

:29:43.:29:46.

But - they've no experience of with a four way race

:29:47.:29:49.

Get ready for it - UK election fever is coming

:29:50.:29:59.

to a town near you - Or it already has if

:30:00.:30:02.

you were in Swindon, Bristol or Cardiff today -

:30:03.:30:04.

where Jeremy Corbyn kicked off his campaign outside London.

:30:05.:30:06.

This afternoon, the eagle-eyed may even have spotted an extra

:30:07.:30:09.

spring in his step - Close ally, Len Mcluskey,

:30:10.:30:11.

If Labour is to succeed, it needs to pick up tens of seats

:30:12.:30:19.

from the Conservatives, so what is the winning strategy?

:30:20.:30:22.

Our correspondent, David Grossman, joined the Labour leader as he began

:30:23.:30:24.

Jeremy Corbyn is beginning the fight of his life.

:30:25.:30:36.

Rarely has a Leader of the Opposition started a campaign

:30:37.:30:38.

with the arithmetic so steeply stacked against him.

:30:39.:30:42.

The choice of this seat for the Labour leader's first

:30:43.:30:47.

campaigning stop outside London is a statement of intent.

:30:48.:30:49.

It's gone to the governing party in every election

:30:50.:30:54.

Indeed, all the seats Jeremy Corbyn is going to visit today

:30:55.:30:57.

are currently in the hands of the Conservatives.

:30:58.:31:00.

Mr Corbyn's themes on class sizes, the minimum wage, zero hours

:31:01.:31:10.

The queue for selfies afterwards shows that

:31:11.:31:13.

But, even activists struggle to explain why this offer might win

:31:14.:31:22.

Well, you have to get the message out there,

:31:23.:31:28.

you have to understand why they would have voted

:31:29.:31:32.

Conservative last time, I'm not sure why they did.

:31:33.:31:34.

Me personally, I don't understand why that would be.

:31:35.:31:36.

But if you offer policies that people can get behind,

:31:37.:31:39.

like the minimum living wage, free school meals,

:31:40.:31:41.

its policies for all parts of the population of Swindon.

:31:42.:31:47.

The next stop is a children's centre in Bristol North West.

:31:48.:31:52.

To win this seat, it's estimated Labour would need a national lead

:31:53.:31:55.

To put that into context, there currently about 20 points behind.

:31:56.:32:07.

Fitting then that the book Mr Corbyn is reading

:32:08.:32:20.

It's all about overcoming a series of seemingly

:32:21.:32:23.

Mr Corbyn doesn't need to wade through swishy grass or deep mud,

:32:24.:32:27.

but he does have some formidable obstacles to negotiate.

:32:28.:32:29.

In order for him to have the same slim majority that Theresa May

:32:30.:32:32.

enjoys today, he'd need to win 100 seats.

:32:33.:32:36.

And if we look at who has those 100 most winnable seats

:32:37.:32:44.

for Labour Right now, one is Green, two Plaid Cymru,

:32:45.:32:46.

three Lib Dem, nine are SNP, but a whopping 85 are currently

:32:47.:32:49.

How can you convince people who voted Conservative in seats

:32:50.:32:56.

like this to vote Labour when Ed Miliband couldn't

:32:57.:32:58.

Well, we represent what are really very core values of this country.

:32:59.:33:06.

Justice, fairness, equality, equality of

:33:07.:33:07.

A health service that works for all, education service

:33:08.:33:12.

Not having to rely on collections to run schools.

:33:13.:33:20.

The final event of the day is an open air speech

:33:21.:33:24.

in Cardiff North, a seat again that the Conservatives currently

:33:25.:33:30.

hold and one that Labour hasn't won since 2005.

:33:31.:33:32.

Although, it's not a bad size crowd for almost no notice

:33:33.:33:35.

on a Friday afternoon, building real support,

:33:36.:33:37.

enough to take a seat like this, is going to be a big

:33:38.:33:40.

For some local residents, a visit from Mr Corbyn is more a curiosity

:33:41.:33:51.

than an attraction. Do you think he is someone that can connect with

:33:52.:33:57.

conservative voters? No way, no. Why not? I just don't think he has the

:33:58.:34:06.

right ideas, to be honest. I think he's too far to the left. It's true,

:34:07.:34:12.

Labour did win this seat in the Welsh Assembly election last year,

:34:13.:34:15.

but Jeremy Corbyn certainly didn't have a starring role in that

:34:16.:34:19.

campaign. Every election is difficult, you never take anything

:34:20.:34:23.

for granted. There's a lot of work to do between now and the general

:34:24.:34:26.

election. I'd said there's a mountain to climb that mountain is

:34:27.:34:30.

can be climbed and today is the start of that journey Jeremy Corbyn!

:34:31.:34:37.

Winning Conservative seat is a huge challenge, particularly since the

:34:38.:34:39.

polls suggest Labour could struggle to hang onto many of the seats it

:34:40.:34:43.

already holds. Tomorrow Jeremy Corbyn is due to start Labour's

:34:44.:34:47.

defensive campaign in Labour seats in the north-west of England.

:34:48.:34:49.

While Jeremy Corbyn was wooing the crowds in Cardiff,

:34:50.:34:52.

Theresa May kicked off her campaign trail in Maidenhead -

:34:53.:34:54.

The Prime Minister put a marker, of sorts, down too today -

:34:55.:35:04.

attempting to snuff out speculation over the government's commitment

:35:05.:35:06.

It will remain at 0.7% of national income -

:35:07.:35:13.

to be spent, in her words "in the most effective way".

:35:14.:35:23.

Tonight Philip Hammond has hinted he wants to scrap the Conservative

:35:24.:35:28.

Party does not promise not to raise taxes, so how much will be

:35:29.:35:31.

non-Brexit issues shape her campaign?

:35:32.:35:36.

Joining me now is David Aaranovitch, columnist for The Times.

:35:37.:35:38.

Ava Vidal, Comediand and Commentator.

:35:39.:35:39.

Tom Newwton-Dunn, political Editor for The Sun.

:35:40.:35:42.

Good evening. Welcome to you all. Quite interesting to start off with

:35:43.:35:48.

some of the reaction of the front pages we are going to see tomorrow.

:35:49.:35:53.

The Financial Times has said, fears of a Philip Hammond tax bombshell.

:35:54.:36:00.

The sun, the headline, pay and this may. Tories ready to hit the white

:36:01.:36:03.

van man. The Daily Mirror is saying the Tories' VAT bombshell, picking

:36:04.:36:10.

up on Philip Hammond saying he will drop this pledge not to hike taxes.

:36:11.:36:15.

What you make of this reaction? I think it's a perfectly natural one

:36:16.:36:20.

for newspaper editors to look at some big policy announcements today

:36:21.:36:23.

from Philip Hammond and Theresa May. Philip Hammond saying we're going to

:36:24.:36:27.

rip up that promise we made only two years ago to not raise all these big

:36:28.:36:32.

taxes and we may end up raising these taxes. And also potentially

:36:33.:36:35.

dropping the triple lock on pensions, which means pensions may

:36:36.:36:40.

go down. They are seismic, great events and they deserve their place

:36:41.:36:41.

on the front pages. He hasn't quite said he will rip it up. He

:36:42.:36:57.

says he is concerned about certain taxes restraining the ability of the

:36:58.:36:59.

government to manage the economy properly. I think most people's

:37:00.:37:02.

language that means rip it up. I'm astounded. I didn't expect the

:37:03.:37:04.

papers to take this turn so quickly. They were pretty much all supporting

:37:05.:37:07.

Theresa May and conservatives. At 1.I was really despairing, is there

:37:08.:37:11.

anything these people can do they will not gloss over? It's

:37:12.:37:15.

interesting. How significant is it, the reaction to Philip Hammond and

:37:16.:37:21.

their foreign aid budget so early on? The front page of The Times

:37:22.:37:25.

carries a story saying it Donald Trump will give the EU preference of

:37:26.:37:30.

the trade deal. I regard these things as minor players in what is

:37:31.:37:34.

actually all should be the major issue of the election. You're

:37:35.:37:39.

saying... Get out the way early. The foreign aid one is quite

:37:40.:37:42.

interesting. One of the questions you ask is, who is Theresa May? Is

:37:43.:37:47.

she looked small-town Conservative who wants to keep foreigners out and

:37:48.:37:50.

not pay foreign innate because sometime she seems a bit like that?

:37:51.:37:55.

Or a globalising big business conservative, like Philip Hammond

:37:56.:37:59.

would be, in which case you want to think about your responsibilities

:38:00.:38:02.

and foreign aid is a big part of that. Tim Montgomery, the

:38:03.:38:07.

Conservative blogger said today that actually he believed he knew that

:38:08.:38:11.

Ruth Davidson, the Tory leader in Scotland, was a major influence on

:38:12.:38:16.

Theresa May in keeping the 0.7%. But think about the Bill Gates speech

:38:17.:38:20.

yesterday. Now tell me that Bill Gates didn't know that Theresa May

:38:21.:38:25.

was going to do this in other words, she didn't take the decision, I

:38:26.:38:29.

think, because Bill Gates made the speech. He made the speech to give

:38:30.:38:33.

emphasis to the position she was about to announce. I would say

:38:34.:38:38.

that's possibly a conspiracy to Fat. It's not a conspiracy. It is if you

:38:39.:38:44.

don't believe it. Theresa May cancelled a meeting with Bill Gates

:38:45.:38:47.

the day before yesterday, which was a pretty good idea. An 0.7%, the

:38:48.:38:53.

devil is in the detail. I have a sneaking suspicion that this one

:38:54.:38:59.

isn't quite over yet. 0.7% is only 0.7% if you go with the OECD

:39:00.:39:03.

definition of precisely what you give to hoops. I think the

:39:04.:39:05.

government will blurring this. So they will be keeping about more

:39:06.:39:11.

money might go towards the Hebrides. Let's talk about domestic policy,

:39:12.:39:15.

these policy statements or pledges and what they mean to the shape of

:39:16.:39:21.

the election. Up until maybe now, it was considered a Brexit election. Is

:39:22.:39:25.

that fair? Is it changing? That's what they were trying to make us

:39:26.:39:30.

believe, a Brexit election while sneaking things under the table. I

:39:31.:39:33.

think it's good people are noticing, going hold on a second. I think

:39:34.:39:41.

there will be a U-turn. A U-turn? On the 0.7, I don't think they will go

:39:42.:39:44.

through with it. Once they've seen a reaction like this, I don't think

:39:45.:39:48.

the Tories will go through with it. They can't afford to be alienating

:39:49.:39:53.

their room base. Can Theresa May afford to do such a U-turn? I would

:39:54.:39:58.

say she can. Not only does she have to shore up centrist support and so

:39:59.:40:02.

on, she doesn't also necessarily want to seem like a complete right

:40:03.:40:07.

winger. Seeing as Ukip has almost collapsed, there isn't a great

:40:08.:40:11.

threat after her right. The big threat all the parties face...

:40:12.:40:15.

Jeremy Corbyn apart, the Tories face is low turnout. That's really the

:40:16.:40:20.

big problem. It might come later, the question of expectation of

:40:21.:40:24.

result. It might seem early at the beginning of the seven-week

:40:25.:40:25.

campaign, but we can do that. I returned to

:40:26.:40:49.

the point, all of this is kind of little bits of nit-picking detail.

:40:50.:40:51.

That's what happens in an election campaign. It is if you concentrate

:40:52.:40:54.

on it. The biggest question is if we as media focus down on the thing

:40:55.:40:57.

that really matters, which is what her negotiating position is going to

:40:58.:40:59.

be on Europe. How much money we have for everything. I want to focus on

:41:00.:41:02.

the UK election at the moment. I mentioned Len McCluskey being

:41:03.:41:04.

re-elected for the Unite union. How significant is that for him, in

:41:05.:41:07.

terms of his standing? Supported by the party but not reflected in the

:41:08.:41:09.

electorate yet? Know and I don't think it won't have any effect on

:41:10.:41:12.

the election itself, because Unite were always going to be funding the

:41:13.:41:16.

Labour Party, whoever was in charge. It gives him a confidence boost.

:41:17.:41:25.

There are certain big theories among Labour MPs that even if Jeremy

:41:26.:41:27.

Corbyn loses this general election, as it looks like he might, he will

:41:28.:41:30.

stay on. Getting Jeremy Corbyn out of that job, even if he presides

:41:31.:41:34.

over a catastrophic Labour Party might be very hard. It will be even

:41:35.:41:39.

harder with Len McCluskey in charge of Unite. Kenny Darragh? Can Jeremy

:41:40.:41:44.

win? I've been doorstepping and talking to people. I think there

:41:45.:41:48.

will be more of an upset than people think. They are saying Jeremy is a

:41:49.:41:52.

useless, can't win, he has no support. I've been on the road with

:41:53.:41:56.

him, I've seen people's reaction to him. He's getting people interested

:41:57.:42:02.

in politics who were not. I think it's so important for the Labour

:42:03.:42:05.

Party to pull together and stop this infighting. When you actually speak

:42:06.:42:09.

to people, that is the thing putting people off Labour. The other problem

:42:10.:42:14.

the Labour Party might have is a lot of Labour supporters are pro-Remain

:42:15.:42:17.

and very disappointed. I've been speaking to some people who say, we

:42:18.:42:22.

have no choice, we will have to go to the Liberal Democrats, which is

:42:23.:42:26.

ridiculous. It's like going back to cheating boyfriend. The last time

:42:27.:42:30.

they campaigned on student fees and completely turned around. Does this

:42:31.:42:36.

front-page mean the sun is backing Jeremy Corbyn? That might be

:42:37.:42:41.

premature conclusion. Ask the editor but I think it's unlikely. Thank you

:42:42.:42:43.

all for joining us. Now, before we finish, 70 years ago,

:42:44.:42:48.

the Italian writer and Holocaust survivor Primo Levvy published

:42:49.:42:51.

"If This is a Man" - a memoir To mark the anniversary,

:42:52.:42:54.

Philippe Sands and AL Kennedy, in collaboration

:42:55.:43:00.

with the Southbank Centre, have curated a special event,

:43:01.:43:01.

to be held a week on Sunday at the Royal Festival Hall,

:43:02.:43:04.

featuring readings from the book. The actor Samuel West will take

:43:05.:43:07.

part, and he's here tonight to read You who find, returning

:43:08.:43:10.

in the evening, May your children turn

:43:11.:43:21.

their faces from you. Hello. We had seen is in very cold

:43:22.:44:42.

air across Europe this week and we are in for a

:44:43.:44:44.