21/04/2017 Newsnight

In half an hour from now, the French election campaign

By law, no party message can be broadcast, no

The end of the first round of an election,

The killing of a policeman last night has added

The poll leader, Emmanuel Macron, says no-one should be trying

to score political points out of the shooting.

We'll ask the Front National's campaign coordinator why

And we journey deep into the heart of France.

It says here that this monument symbolises the centre of gravity of

continental France. Meanwhile, here at home,

in our election campaign, Theresa May made a commitment

on foreign aid that Let's be clear, the 0.7% commitment

remains and will remain. We need to look at how that money is spent and

make sure we are able to spend that money in the most effective way.

Jeremy Corbyn has been telling Labour's story on the trail.

Frightened of the bear, this big Bear?

Party political pledges are being made.

How much will Brexit determine what this election comes down to?

Hello, mild evening in Paris, as it counts to an election

that promises change - whoever wins.

Hugely consequential for the EU, for Brexit and for the people here.

Today, the last day of the campaign was of course, the day overshadowed

by the killing of a police officer last night, just a few

Be clear, this has not been the same sort of shock

as previous incidents, not at all, life has

But it has affected the election campaign.

The fact that the killer - named today as Karim Cheurfi -

was known to the authorities, had been in jail before and had

previously attacked a police officer obviously became an election issue.

Does that benefit the candidates of the right?

Two of them made an argument that they would be tougher

on terrorism today - earning a rebuke from

What we know is that we already have an unprecedentedly

No voters anywhere are getting as wide a range

Populist right, populist left, traditional conservative,

Any of the top four candidates could make it

Paris in spring, the Arc de Triomphe's little brother, celebrate

Napoleon's victories and harks back to time the country was divided

between Conservative loyalists and liberals inspired by the French and

France has divisions today that are coming to a head in an election that

is in effect a four horse race. You've heard of Marine le Pen, tough

on law and order and immigrants. She was quick to judgment on yesterday's

killing. TRANSLATION: For ten years on the government is right and left

everything has been done to make sure we lose this war. We need a

presidency that acts and protects. And here is anti-globalisation and

your Broe sceptic and anti-NATO. He's on the left and has a canny

sense of and theatre. It's easy to imagine voters

switching between Jean-Luc Melenchon and Marine le Pen, because even

though they are so far apart on many things, they are on the same side of

the great divide. Ah you to hell and want to change everything? One

unlikely outcome on Sunday evening is that the two of them go through

to the final run-off. Unlikely, because they are actually fighting

over some of the same voters, but were that to happen, it would be a

Brexit moment for France, it would be a nightmare for the European

Union and it would be a good time to sell LE Eurocurrency might have. --

any euro currency. That's what the top candidates are trying to stop,

also promising change, Emmanuel Macron is leading in the polls.

Centrist, a social and economic liberal, and yesterday he secured

the Obama vote. Hello Mr President, how are you? Immanuel? Yes, exactly.

I'm doing very well. But he's young, untried and he worked in banking.

Fortunately for Emmanuel Macron, his rival has worse scandals against him

than that and has struggled to change the subject. TRANSLATION:

It's not just as they want, it's to break me, and not just me, it's the

right they want a break. The polls say of the four, and Marine le Pen

and Emmanuel Macron are most likely to go through, but are they right?

What is most striking in this election is that one of the two

favourite candidates, Emmanuel Macron, he gained ground and is now

better than he was, but he still has a proportion of voters that are not

sure that their choice is definitive, that they will go and

vote for him. Marine le Pen's voters, are they not more committed?

That's one of the characteristics of National front voters. When you look

at the outside candidates, Jean-Luc Melenchon, Marine le Pen, six of the

French candidates we never talk about but whose posters be spoiled

this otherwise beautiful city, their radical in their own way. Take all

of them together, their totals in the opinion polls come to almost

exactly 50%. And what that implies is this country is almost evenly

divided between those who want to overthrow the system and those who

want to adapt it. That's why one really natural outcome would be for

a final showdown between the two torchbearers of those sentiments.

Marine le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. He is expected to be the next

president in two weeks, but no one can be sure. Spring is the best time

to be in Paris, everyone knows that, and this is a spring that promises

to be like no other. The French polls are rather

interesting by the way - they have been clustering together,

and remarkably consistent; that either gives you the confidence

to believe their predictions Or, that the pollsters have some

sort of flawed group-think. But there has not been a poll

since February that's not made So to learn more about him, I spoke

last night to Benjamin Griveaux, the main spokesman of his party,

En Marche. And began by asking him

who he wanted to come second. You know, French voters will decide

who will be our opponent, but if we follow the polls,

it should be Marine le Pen. She's leading every poll

since two years now. Even if the polls are not that good

for her right now, she is still Populism in France, and it's

difficult to define, but we kind of know what we're

talking about when we use the term. You have Marine le Pen,

Jean-Luc Melenchon, you've got another seven or eight candidates

who you would describe as in the same vein

as one of those two. Their support adds up to 50%, half

the French population, doesn't it? The main issue, I think,

is unemployment. We have a 10% rate of

unemployment in France. We have 9 million people under

the poverty level right now, and people just want to get rid

of them, want to get rid of the usual solution

that the Conservative and the Labour Party in France

propose to them since 30 years. And those two main parties,

we should remind everybody, are doing very badly in the polls

when it comes to this But your candidate, Emmanuel Macron,

is painting himself Your candidate, the change

candidate, has worked for the Rothschilds,

and he's worked for He went to the top French school,

of course, so he knows What he did, and he took a huge risk

when he launched his movement. I mean nobody had ever done

that before in France, because usually if you want to run

for president, you start by being a congressman

for ten years or 15 years, you find a territory where you can

be elected, where people vote for you as a mayor,

and then as a congressman, or maybe as a senator,

then you are allowed Should the British be scared

of Macron winning this election? Because he is the most pro-European

of the major candidates, and, to some extent,

maybe the least sympathetic to a country that is trying

to negotiate its withdrawal. He visited Theresa May

last February. You know, he respects the votes

of the British people. As your Prime Minister says,

"Brexit means Brexit". So you need to have not punitive

approach of Brexit, for sure, A responsible and a clear one,

but obviously what we want, what the British are seeking

in these negotiations, it is kind of access to bits

of the single market and the Customs To access the single market,

you need to have a full freedom of movement and you need to pay

a financial contribution That, I think, is telling me that

you're going to be quite hard... We can work on, of course,

long-term agreements with the UK. I mean, France and UK

remains two close friends, and we will have to work probably

on strategy key issues, defence, I did want to just

finish on security. Does that play, do you think it has

an effect on the election, an election in which people

are feeling scared of change, potentially, feeling

that the country is in Do you think when there

are attacks of any kind, I mean, of course it takes a certain

place in this election. Of course we all have in mind

these images of Nice and the 14th of July and so on,

but I think that when you have a responsible

agenda on terrorism, French people are also

responsible people. They don't want their liberties,

their civil rights to be abolished in the name of fighting terrorism

and so on. We are very much attached to our

liberties and our civil rights. Benjamin Griveaux, thanks very

much indeed, thank you. We're joined by Jean Messiha,

who is campaign coordinator Very good evening to you. Your

candidate made politics of the murder of the policeman yesterday,

didn't she? I wouldn't say that. I think Marine le Pen has been talking

about this risk and this threat for months and years now, and she was

the only one, the only candidate to talk about that, the only

candidate... The only candidate to have talked about terrorism? Yes, in

this campaign she is the only candidate to have talked about

terrorism, to talk about the risk of terrorism and also the only

candidate to have asked the actual... Do you think is

appropriate the day before a policeman is buried to make a highly

divisive speech, at a time in the country... A very divisive speech.

It wasn't a divisive speech. She blames the politicians. Yes, because

we believe all that happened in the past years in the terrorist field

could have been avoided if serious steps would have been taken to

tackle them. She mentioned some steps today that were essentially

about deporting people, foreign and being investigated, by nationality.

Yes, blacklisted people. How would that have helped in the case of

yesterday? He was born in north-east Paris, how would that have helped?

He was followed, actually, by the police. How would it have helped to

deport him? He was liberated before his time... How would talking about

deporting people have helped in this case, a man born just outside Paris?

In this case it is not about deporting people, it's a lax

judicial power, releasing him before his full of custody. It wouldn't

have helped in this case. This morning, it's divisive to do so. No,

she was talking not only about this specific case. She was talking in

global, all the attacks that hit France in the last two years. It's

divisive to talk about deporting foreigners.... Again, it is not

deporting foreigners. We have 10,000 people who are blacklisted for

security reasons. And links to terrorism, so all of those who are

foreigners must be deported. The other ones who are binational must

be taken off the French nationality. And the French ones will stay here.

The French runs, we have an article in our law that allows us to

imprison them. OK. In her comments today, Marine le Pen said the left

and right have been doing everything to lose the battle against

terrorism. Why did Marine le Pen, in the European Parliament on the 14th

of April last year, against measures to introduce passenger name record

in European flights? It is the first thing the governments in Europe said

we need to do in order to protect the public. She voted against it.

We are attached to individual and public liberties. What right has she

got to say everyone is doing everything... The truth is they took

a measure, something we all want to do. Let me answer you. PNR is a

measure were all the passenger records must be gathered and

transmitted to the United States agencies. We are very attached to

individual liberties and it is not because we are fighting terrorism,

because we will threaten the individual liberties. Do you think

if Marine Le Pen wins, the bookies have put a 20% chance on that, do

you think she can heal the divisions in this country are due you think

she will stir up divisions? She is the only one who can heal divisions

because she is the only one to call for authorities back on the streets

of Paris and this state must use its authority to restore the state power

in the street and if the state is stable, in this case, you will have

massive terrorist attacks, more and more in quantity and there will be

civil war. Thank you for talking to us.

Much of the attention of this election has been on Paris and other

large metropolitan areas, where the issues of terrorism

and immigration have been felt most keenly.

But, it's outside the capital that this election

Gabriel Gatehouse has gone in search of the France's political

and geographic heart ...where three different villages compete

to call themselves the centre of the country.

Far from the tensions of the big cities, it is here

that the presidential election will be decided.

We're on a journey to the heart of the country, for it is here,

in the Cher region, that three small villages vie for the title

We've got lines and distances and calculations, a key

I don't know what it all means, but it says here that this monument

symbolises the centre of gravity of continental France,

not taking into account relief and excluding all islands.

We're not the first to try to pinpoint what they call

"La France profonde" - "Deep France".

The majority of French voters live in provincial or rural communities,

and yet the mayor says people here feel ignored by

Politically, he says, Verdun is divided, half

There is an ongoing battle here, to salvage a vanishing way of life.

For many, like this lady, a promise to put French people first

The issues that fuelled Brexit and Trump are at work

This region is a bellwether, as the Cher votes, so

does the nation, and so, our search for the geographical heart of France

It says here that this ought to be the

According to the calculations of the eminent mathematician and

Here they've got the church on their side.

Buying sausages in the central square, we

meet the oldest resident of the village.

94-years-old, she was in the French resistance.

She ought to know a thing or two about defending

"We need a President who is up to the job", she

"The centre has been ignored", her daughter tells me.

"But now", she adds, "deep France is stirring".

Solvay is ploughing it ever dwindling pot of central government

money into renovating local businesses.

In this way, the mayor tells me they hope to avoid the fate

Our search for the centre of France takes us to our final

contender Bruere-Allichamps, where they have a claim

that is perhaps even stronger than science or the church.

This is a third century Roman milestone.

It was moved to this ancient crossroads in 1799,

and it says here that I tradition this spot is designated

At the bistro at the centre of France, the mayor

is doing his bit to keep alive the tradition of the four

Unemployment in La Cher is more than 10%.

Once upon a time people would have turned to the Communist Party.

Local polls reflect the picture nationwide, but

We came across a supporter trying to give a last-minute boost to the

I think the French are very provocative, but they

At the time of voting, they are more balanced

and they think better and they don't explode.

So I have good hope, I have good hope, I keep my fingers

For years La France profonde has languished on the

political periphery, and if Trump and Brexit teaches anything,

Don't underestimate the power of a heartland scorned.

We're joined by two journalists who've followed French politics

Christine Ockrent was editor and chief of the L'Express

and Pierre Haski is the founding editor of Rue 89.

You know them because they have been on the show a lot. Normally you end

these things with your predictions, but I want to start by asking what

your predictions are. I wish you would not ask. This campaign has

been full of surprises and the latest polls to indicate always the

same trend, but in such a narrow circle. Macron is still ahead, Le

Pen comes second, but Fillon has come up as well. I think, it is too

early to tell. What do you think, Macron and Le Pen through to the

second round? That is what the polls say and normally that is what it

should be. I would not exclude a surprise, because we still have a

large section of the population that is undecided and we see it in our

dinner parties, families, people are still asking what they should vote.

There is really this uncertainty. There is a big thing in the Brexit

votes and the trumpet votes, the turnout of people and sometimes

people who did not usually go out and vote in large numbers, but who

did turn out, bigger than pollsters expected and presumably that

benefits Le Pen. Our system is so different, we have two rounds, it is

a majority vote, it has nothing to do with the referendum. That is a

simple question to a complex issue and it is one answer and it has

nothing to do with the American system. The turnout is usually the

key. If the turnout is low, that will favour Le Pen because she has a

much more solid constituency as a base. Why are the Macron voters

softer? They seem to be less committed. He is the new kid on the

block. He is not tested. He is a very limited experience. He has some

aspects of his personality which puzzle people. He has been a banker.

He has sometimes got this charismatic way of talking in his

beatings. He has some aspects of his programme that are liberal and

others that are very social and moderate. Who is he really? A lot of

people hesitate and I think people are tempted by Macron. It is a new

experience, he has got used and this country is longing for someone,

someone who incarnates the future and not the past. Do the Socialists

and the Republicans, who could quite easily come forth and faith... Which

means get out of the sea. That is amazing. Do they come back from

that? Is that terminal for them? I think they probably will murder one

another before... Seriously. It will be absolutely bloody, seen among the

Conservatives and the Socialists. When Macron launched his career, he

called it a movement. I think that is very significant. I think the

party system has exhausted its purpose and its life. People today

want to be involved in politics, people are not out of politics, they

want to take part differently and I think our old party system has

really reached the end of the road. Sometimes you compare elections and

say it is like the one in 1983 or whatever. This is not like any of

them. This is absolutely unique and I think there is not only a

generation of change, but there is a kind of mix of Democratic city, at

least with the system as it has been going for years, always the same

people. At the same time, how great deal of energy and a great deal of

resilience. Last night, Paris was supposed to be on fire. This

morning, first of all Paris was not on fire and secondly, this morning

people were jogging. What is so striking, the voters here have got

the most fantastic choice. No one can say there is not the full

spectrum. That is one of the issues. You have a choice that is different

from the usual line. It is not just right and left what we have had for

30 years, we are unhappy with the right and vote for the left and the

other way around, this time the dividing line is also about Europe,

open country, cross country and that crisscrosses every political family

and that makes this election different and also more crucial. The

clock has struck midnight in Paris. What a relief!

All right, that is all we have time for.

The estimated result of Round 1 will be at seven

It's not an exit poll, it's based on sample counts from

And they'll call the result as long as it isn't too close.

But - they've no experience of with a four way race

Get ready for it - UK election fever is coming

to a town near you - Or it already has if

you were in Swindon, Bristol or Cardiff today -

where Jeremy Corbyn kicked off his campaign outside London.

This afternoon, the eagle-eyed may even have spotted an extra

spring in his step - Close ally, Len Mcluskey,

If Labour is to succeed, it needs to pick up tens of seats

from the Conservatives, so what is the winning strategy?

Our correspondent, David Grossman, joined the Labour leader as he began

Jeremy Corbyn is beginning the fight of his life.

Rarely has a Leader of the Opposition started a campaign

with the arithmetic so steeply stacked against him.

The choice of this seat for the Labour leader's first

campaigning stop outside London is a statement of intent.

It's gone to the governing party in every election

Indeed, all the seats Jeremy Corbyn is going to visit today

are currently in the hands of the Conservatives.

Mr Corbyn's themes on class sizes, the minimum wage, zero hours

The queue for selfies afterwards shows that

But, even activists struggle to explain why this offer might win

Well, you have to get the message out there,

you have to understand why they would have voted

Conservative last time, I'm not sure why they did.

Me personally, I don't understand why that would be.

But if you offer policies that people can get behind,

like the minimum living wage, free school meals,

its policies for all parts of the population of Swindon.

The next stop is a children's centre in Bristol North West.

To win this seat, it's estimated Labour would need a national lead

To put that into context, there currently about 20 points behind.

Fitting then that the book Mr Corbyn is reading

It's all about overcoming a series of seemingly

Mr Corbyn doesn't need to wade through swishy grass or deep mud,

but he does have some formidable obstacles to negotiate.

In order for him to have the same slim majority that Theresa May

enjoys today, he'd need to win 100 seats.

And if we look at who has those 100 most winnable seats

for Labour Right now, one is Green, two Plaid Cymru,

three Lib Dem, nine are SNP, but a whopping 85 are currently

How can you convince people who voted Conservative in seats

like this to vote Labour when Ed Miliband couldn't

Well, we represent what are really very core values of this country.

Justice, fairness, equality, equality of

A health service that works for all, education service

Not having to rely on collections to run schools.

The final event of the day is an open air speech

in Cardiff North, a seat again that the Conservatives currently

hold and one that Labour hasn't won since 2005.

Although, it's not a bad size crowd for almost no notice

on a Friday afternoon, building real support,

enough to take a seat like this, is going to be a big

For some local residents, a visit from Mr Corbyn is more a curiosity

than an attraction. Do you think he is someone that can connect with

conservative voters? No way, no. Why not? I just don't think he has the

right ideas, to be honest. I think he's too far to the left. It's true,

Labour did win this seat in the Welsh Assembly election last year,

but Jeremy Corbyn certainly didn't have a starring role in that

campaign. Every election is difficult, you never take anything

for granted. There's a lot of work to do between now and the general

election. I'd said there's a mountain to climb that mountain is

can be climbed and today is the start of that journey Jeremy Corbyn!

Winning Conservative seat is a huge challenge, particularly since the

polls suggest Labour could struggle to hang onto many of the seats it

already holds. Tomorrow Jeremy Corbyn is due to start Labour's

defensive campaign in Labour seats in the north-west of England.

While Jeremy Corbyn was wooing the crowds in Cardiff,

Theresa May kicked off her campaign trail in Maidenhead -

The Prime Minister put a marker, of sorts, down too today -

attempting to snuff out speculation over the government's commitment

It will remain at 0.7% of national income -

to be spent, in her words "in the most effective way".

Tonight Philip Hammond has hinted he wants to scrap the Conservative

Party does not promise not to raise taxes, so how much will be

non-Brexit issues shape her campaign?

Joining me now is David Aaranovitch, columnist for The Times.

Ava Vidal, Comediand and Commentator.

Tom Newwton-Dunn, political Editor for The Sun.

Good evening. Welcome to you all. Quite interesting to start off with

some of the reaction of the front pages we are going to see tomorrow.

The Financial Times has said, fears of a Philip Hammond tax bombshell.

The sun, the headline, pay and this may. Tories ready to hit the white

van man. The Daily Mirror is saying the Tories' VAT bombshell, picking

up on Philip Hammond saying he will drop this pledge not to hike taxes.

What you make of this reaction? I think it's a perfectly natural one

for newspaper editors to look at some big policy announcements today

from Philip Hammond and Theresa May. Philip Hammond saying we're going to

rip up that promise we made only two years ago to not raise all these big

taxes and we may end up raising these taxes. And also potentially

dropping the triple lock on pensions, which means pensions may

go down. They are seismic, great events and they deserve their place

on the front pages. He hasn't quite said he will rip it up. He

says he is concerned about certain taxes restraining the ability of the

government to manage the economy properly. I think most people's

language that means rip it up. I'm astounded. I didn't expect the

papers to take this turn so quickly. They were pretty much all supporting

Theresa May and conservatives. At 1.I was really despairing, is there

anything these people can do they will not gloss over? It's

interesting. How significant is it, the reaction to Philip Hammond and

their foreign aid budget so early on? The front page of The Times

carries a story saying it Donald Trump will give the EU preference of

the trade deal. I regard these things as minor players in what is

actually all should be the major issue of the election. You're

saying... Get out the way early. The foreign aid one is quite

interesting. One of the questions you ask is, who is Theresa May? Is

she looked small-town Conservative who wants to keep foreigners out and

not pay foreign innate because sometime she seems a bit like that?

Or a globalising big business conservative, like Philip Hammond

would be, in which case you want to think about your responsibilities

and foreign aid is a big part of that. Tim Montgomery, the

Conservative blogger said today that actually he believed he knew that

Ruth Davidson, the Tory leader in Scotland, was a major influence on

Theresa May in keeping the 0.7%. But think about the Bill Gates speech

yesterday. Now tell me that Bill Gates didn't know that Theresa May

was going to do this in other words, she didn't take the decision, I

think, because Bill Gates made the speech. He made the speech to give

emphasis to the position she was about to announce. I would say

that's possibly a conspiracy to Fat. It's not a conspiracy. It is if you

don't believe it. Theresa May cancelled a meeting with Bill Gates

the day before yesterday, which was a pretty good idea. An 0.7%, the

devil is in the detail. I have a sneaking suspicion that this one

isn't quite over yet. 0.7% is only 0.7% if you go with the OECD

definition of precisely what you give to hoops. I think the

government will blurring this. So they will be keeping about more

money might go towards the Hebrides. Let's talk about domestic policy,

these policy statements or pledges and what they mean to the shape of

the election. Up until maybe now, it was considered a Brexit election. Is

that fair? Is it changing? That's what they were trying to make us

believe, a Brexit election while sneaking things under the table. I

think it's good people are noticing, going hold on a second. I think

there will be a U-turn. A U-turn? On the 0.7, I don't think they will go

through with it. Once they've seen a reaction like this, I don't think

the Tories will go through with it. They can't afford to be alienating

their room base. Can Theresa May afford to do such a U-turn? I would

say she can. Not only does she have to shore up centrist support and so

on, she doesn't also necessarily want to seem like a complete right

winger. Seeing as Ukip has almost collapsed, there isn't a great

threat after her right. The big threat all the parties face...

Jeremy Corbyn apart, the Tories face is low turnout. That's really the

big problem. It might come later, the question of expectation of

result. It might seem early at the beginning of the seven-week

campaign, but we can do that. I returned to

the point, all of this is kind of little bits of nit-picking detail.

That's what happens in an election campaign. It is if you concentrate

on it. The biggest question is if we as media focus down on the thing

that really matters, which is what her negotiating position is going to

be on Europe. How much money we have for everything. I want to focus on

the UK election at the moment. I mentioned Len McCluskey being

re-elected for the Unite union. How significant is that for him, in

terms of his standing? Supported by the party but not reflected in the

electorate yet? Know and I don't think it won't have any effect on

the election itself, because Unite were always going to be funding the

Labour Party, whoever was in charge. It gives him a confidence boost.

There are certain big theories among Labour MPs that even if Jeremy

Corbyn loses this general election, as it looks like he might, he will

stay on. Getting Jeremy Corbyn out of that job, even if he presides

over a catastrophic Labour Party might be very hard. It will be even

harder with Len McCluskey in charge of Unite. Kenny Darragh? Can Jeremy

win? I've been doorstepping and talking to people. I think there

will be more of an upset than people think. They are saying Jeremy is a

useless, can't win, he has no support. I've been on the road with

him, I've seen people's reaction to him. He's getting people interested

in politics who were not. I think it's so important for the Labour

Party to pull together and stop this infighting. When you actually speak

to people, that is the thing putting people off Labour. The other problem

the Labour Party might have is a lot of Labour supporters are pro-Remain

and very disappointed. I've been speaking to some people who say, we

have no choice, we will have to go to the Liberal Democrats, which is

ridiculous. It's like going back to cheating boyfriend. The last time

they campaigned on student fees and completely turned around. Does this

front-page mean the sun is backing Jeremy Corbyn? That might be

premature conclusion. Ask the editor but I think it's unlikely. Thank you

all for joining us. Now, before we finish, 70 years ago,

the Italian writer and Holocaust survivor Primo Levvy published

"If This is a Man" - a memoir To mark the anniversary,

Philippe Sands and AL Kennedy, in collaboration

with the Southbank Centre, have curated a special event,

to be held a week on Sunday at the Royal Festival Hall,

featuring readings from the book. The actor Samuel West will take

part, and he's here tonight to read You who find, returning

in the evening, May your children turn

their faces from you. Hello. We had seen is in very cold

air across Europe this week and we are in for a