15/05/2017 Newsnight


A look at the Conservatives' attitude towards workers' rights, the cyber attack that struck the NHS, knife crime, and Jeremy Corbyn's battleground seats. Emily Maitlis presents.

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 15/05/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!



Forget about a hundred years of history, the Conservatives


promise to be the party that stands up for workers rights.


They unveil a raft of new proposals - but what does it actually mean


It depends what average earnings are, but what he said was that,


the national living wage should be 60% of the median wage, if you like.


So if wages do not rise as much, will you fill that gap and make sure


It has just been announced that Ian Brady has died. Is that the end of


the story of the Morris murderers. Also tonight, whose fault is it


the NHS got hit so hard There is a ?5 billion backlog


of maintenance for the NHS and the IT budget has got to provide


things like imaging equipment that makes sure that cancer


patients can be diagnosed. These are urgent and important


demands on a very small budget. The Conservatives have initiated


a series of practical measures Or an audacious land grab on prime


Labour real estate - The Prime Minister pledges


new protections for people in the gig economy, a right


to training and measures to protect But today the Tories refused


to confirm the National Living Wage would reach 9 pounds an hour by 2020


- as George Osborne - Our political editor


Nick Watt is with us now. A big moment. It was. I have been


trying to identify about how Theresa May may take to fashion one nation


Conservative to her vision about how the country should be run and


workers' rights is that the hard and the reason for that is one of her


insights from Brexit was not just about to leave the EU, it was a cry


of anguish from people who feel left behind by globalisation. These


pledges today are designed by her to show that she really means business


about making globalisation work for those people who feel left behind.


She needs a mandate on this to face down critics in her own party. She


lost a battle in the Cabinet in the autumn about getting workers sitting


on cup -- on boards, one verse and said this did not work in Germany.


That idea, it comes back, although the language and wording about who


will sit on the boards is not too clear.


Well we will see Nick's take on One Nation Conservatism


in a moment but first, to that interview with Damien Green,


I asked why the Tories were looking for this major shift of emphasis


And he explained it was partly as a result of Brexit.


There were too many people who felt that the system did not give them


a fair crack of the whip and Theresa May has made clear that


since she went into Downing Street making this a country that works


for everyone is key to her, and a large part of that is making


sure that everyone benefits from a rising tide of prosperity.


There will be viewers sitting at home saying, this


is quite frankly laughable, that the Conservatives


are trying to pitch themselves as the party of workers' rights,


the government that tried to bring in anti-strike clause,


that saw huge increases in zero hours contract, that attempted


to shut down trade unions, they're not going to get


This government has not tried to shut down trade unions,


trade unions have a role to play, but people who think that making


strikes more difficult is in any way anti-work or anti-ordinary people


Zero hours contract, the percentage of people on zero


hours contracts who are happy to have them is about 70,


less than 3% of the workforce is on zero hours contract,


the average amount of time worked by someone on zero hours


contract is 25 hours, so actually, they're rather popular


My point is, you can correct the perception that you don't care


about workers' rights really simply, you end the public sector pay pinch.


You know that you have nurses who are about to go on strike


You know that you have public sector workers who are feeling the squeeze


That's the way to correct that perception.


Wages aren't stagnant, we had to take difficult decisions


In fact pay progression among nurses means that the average pay increase


is 3% but yes of course everyone is concerned.


Nurses do a great job, we've got more nurses than ever before.


You're short of 40,000 nurses, that suggests there is a problem


for you with drawing people into the profession.


There are still more people applying and places for training and so on.


And we have got thousands more nurses than there were in 2010.


But there is a wider range of aspects to workers'


Pay has gone up particularly at the bottom end of the pay scale


because of the introduction of the national living wage,


which we now pledged to keep increasing until 2022,


because of that, those at the bottom end of the pay scale have had


particularly high pay rises, they've had an average of 6%


over the last two years, as compared to inflation running


So let's look at the national living wage, then.


Will that be would George Osborne set out as Chancellor,


It will be, we're doing it on the basis of the suggested


projection by George Bain, who used to run the Low Pay unit...


It depends on what average earnings are, because what he said


was that the national living wage should be 60% of the median wage.


So if wages don't rise as much, will you fill that gap and make sure


We said we are aiming at 60%, it's below 60% right now so this


will guarantee an increase over the coming years, exactly how far it


So it might not get to ?9 an hour, that is something you have to accept


of median wages, obviously it will depend upon what happens


Right, so you've got Labour saying...


?10 an hour, a nice fat round sum, and you've got the Conservatives


saying, we're not quite sure, it depends on the median


average raise and the rate at which it goes up,


that's a fairly stark choice if you're looking


Except that what we're doing, with that and with the other


part of this proposal, are making a practical set


of proposals, clearly you have to balance the national living wage,


as we do both in terms of taking sure people are paid a fair amount


and making sure that the jobs are available for them to do,


that you are not pricing them out of the jobs market.


We have been spectacularly successful at getting people


into work, we have created the best part three mini extra jobs,


we've got more people in employment never before.


More women in employment than ever before.


We don't want to put that at risk but at the same time we do


want to have a national living wage that enables people


to live decently, that is what we are achieving.


Another Labour commitment is maximum pay ratios, 20/1.


In the public sector or anyone tending for public sector work,


will you stick to that kind of pay ratio?


I think having arbitrary pay ratios like that probably isn't the best


way to help workers, I think the proposal...


It sends out a signal that you know that the people at the top can't


carry on getting inordinate amounts more money than the


Sending out a signal is what governments in the past


have done too often, what we are proposing is a practical


package of measures that will make a difference to people in their real


lives, the ability to take time off to train, the ability to take


time off to be a carer, the knowledge that because we giving


extra powers to the pensions regulator, that your workplace


pension will be better protected in future,


that is what will make a difference to people in their daily lives,


So you get a year off to look after somebody, unpaid,


you are giving people a year of unpaid leave.


We've looked at the system in Ireland, where this system


works perfectly well, and most people don't take


the full year, it's often a much shorter period,


If you're a low paid worker and somebody is offering you a year


to look after your elderly parent, without money, that's


Different people will have different individual


This is about workers' rights, isn't it?


And the right to be able to say, look, something has happened


in my family, I need to take a couple of months off before I can


sort out the new situation, and knowing that your job


is guaranteed at the end of that, that removes a significant amount


of stress from people perhaps particularly at a difficult


time of their lives, that is a proper practical


Let's look at a very practical example of workers' rights,


Uber is trying to renew its licence next month, is a Tory government


going to insist that it will improve its workers' rights


I don't want to talk about individual companies...


We have set up quite deliberately in this area of what we will now


call the gig economy, where Uber drivers and Deliveroo...


You know very well, Uber was taken to court,


it was found wanting in terms of its care for its workers,


so you could say, "We are the party of workers' rights.


We will not guarantee a new licence for Uber until it changes the way


Making laws to deal with individual companies is often


So let's look at the whole sector, and that is what we are doing,


we have set Matthew Taylor to do a report precisely


When Labour says, we want to intervene in the market and look


at rail nationalisation, you call them socialist,


But, you know, when the Tories suggest intervention in,


you know, the energy sector, it's somehow standing up


I don't call Labour socialist or Marxists, they call


themselves socialists, and in the case of John


They're not proposing intervention, they're proposing renationalisation


But what they want to do is have it run by a statement not blue,


and everyone over a certain age can remember what happened...


Two years ago it would have been crazy to intervene in the energy


sector when it was the desire of Ed Miliband, his suggestion,


that it is absolutely right because it is Theresa May and a Tory


policy, that is what people have a problem with,


they do not understand where you stand on this.


Ed Miliband's policy was for a freeze.


His actual policy was particularly daft because he said


he was going to freeze prices just before the oil price fell,


which actually reduced prices, his freeze would have kept


We say it is a cap on certain types of tariff if companies are not


It has been announced that the Moors Murderer Ian Brady has died. Ian


Brady and Murray Hendley sexually tortured and murdered five children


between 1963 and 1965. The couple buried at least some of the bodies


of Saddleworth Moor. Ian Brady died at a psychiatric hospital on


Merseyside and he takes to the grave the location of the grave of Keith


Bennett. There have been desperate pleas from the boys relatives for


Ian Brady to reveal his burial site. We are joined by the former is


police officer who represents the victims. This is just broken in the


last few minutes, give us your first thoughts. My first thoughts are that


these two individuals, Myra Hindley and Ian Brady, they murdered five


young children, one of whom was Lesley Ann Downey and I represented


her family. When they murdered her, she was only ten years of age, she


was lost on the Moritz and they recorded but they actually did to


her. I remember staying with her mother and father, a number of times


and I met them dozens of times and the grief and torment that I saw in


their faces was beyond probably many that I have actually met. I have met


hundreds of families who have had families murdered. -- family members


murdered. To know that your daughter was lost, alone and murdered and


then her death was recorded, the grief can never ever be etched from


your mind and those two individuals, Ian Brady and then they did not just


destroyed the lives of five young children, through their relentless


appeals and false hopes that they gave the families, for over 50


years, destroyed all of the families as well, even to this day. He never


released the burial site of Keith Bennett and that family never


recovered. Keith's mother went to her grave tormented in the way that


you describe, having begged him many times, do you understand that


mentality? They both had serious psychological injury -- issues and


they played nine games with the media and Keith Bennett, I remember


his mother and the other families as well, and when you saw them on the


television, you could only imagine the torment. When we get up and we


have had bad days, we hope the next day will be better, but when you


have had someone murdered, certainly in the circumstances that Myra


Hindley and Ian Brady murdered them, that is torture that exists 20 four


sevenths and you can never comprehend it. I sometimes try to


comprehend how these families exist and when I look into their faces, I


see an emptiness and with every murder, time stops and life changes


and for all the victims of Myra Hindley and Ian Brady, life changed


forever. They had a life sentence for over 50 years and today, I do


not know if it will bring closure to anyone because sadly many of their


families, parents have died as well. talk about psychological issues,


because this case caused something of... I don't know, a complication


in the public mind, this idea of mental ill health against pure evil,


people said they were not mentally ill, that this was pure evil? You


are right, you are absolutely right, I describe Myra Hindley and Ian


bravely as two of the most evil people I have ever met, and they are


evil beyond belief. -- Ian Brady. And maybe the two of them tried to


fool prison authorities with their mind games, by playing mind games


about the state of mind that they committed those murders, and not


everybody who commits a murder is psychiatrically ill. Probably, they


weren't psychiatrically ill, but they tried to convince us, and every


time they tried to convince us, it's twisted the knife in the wings of


all of those families a little more. And many of them, as I say, they


have died without peace, I remember seeing the mother of Lesley Ann


Downey, in her coffin, and I looked at the body, look at the face, and


even in death, I saw meant in her face, and I have seen many dead


bodies as a police officer. And I hope there is respite for the family


still alive today. -- knife in the wounds. Those families that have


lived with over 50 years of grief and pure torment. Thank you for


sharing your time with us this evening, we appreciate it. Returning


to the election news now. We've heard about One


Nation Conservatism - as a modern concept -


for the best part of a decade. But what does that mantel mean -


and can anyone wear it. Two nations between whom there is no


intercourse and no sympathy. Who are as ignorant of each other's habits,


thoughts and feelings as if they were dwellers in different zones. Or


inhabitants of different planets. Sounds familiar? A century and a


half after Benjamin Disraeli's earring description of a nation


divided by poverty, Theresa May is casting herself as the true guardian


of his unifying one nation credo. In the Prime Minister's mind, today's


announcement of new workers' rights delivered on her pledge to unite the


nation after the referendum. Theresa May believes that "Brexit" marked a


cry from people who feel left behind by globalisation, she wants to show


how the economy can work for all and scoop up Labour votes. We can see


the Tory party return as the one nation party geographically, I'm not


sure ideological, but geographically, yes, and it looks


likely to pick up seats in the north, in the Midlands, maybe a


comeback in Scotland and seats in Wales as well, if you think about


the way a Stole seats from the Lib Democrats last time, that is a party


that can claim, probably for the first time, at least since the 1980s


and pro will be since the 1950s, to represent the whole of the country.


But electoral success then, and possibly next month, was not just


about geography. -- at least since the 1980s and probably since the


1950s. This may not be a long-term gain for the Tory party but on this


occasion, I think it is likely that Theresa May and the Conservative


Party will pull together a combination of people, almost in the


way that Ronald Reagan did in the United States. Pulling together


people who were traditionally Democrat, traditionally Labour,


through Ukip, into the Tory column. Winning wide support would free


Theresa May to govern according to her vision of Benjamin Disraeli's


one nation, Theresa May -- Mayism will have some resonance with the


right, she reached out to Ukip, saying that we are citizens of


nowhere, but the one nation claim on the Tory left will welcome today's


pledges on workers' rights. The Prime Minister's own philosopher


king, Nick Timothy, who crafted "Mayism", was inspired by one of the


great municipal figures, Joe Chamberlain. He is actually the


right inspiration for this, he was very clear, when he became mayor of


Birmingham, and indeed, he went on to do national politics, but he


believed in a vibrant industrial -based economy, to improve in his


words not mine, the conditions of the masses. To many conservatives,


the new West Midlands mare revives the template on how to reach out


beyond Tory comfort zones. The tradition of one nation


conservatism, of course, is a real fervent belief that the public


services must be first-class, have to be well funded, and in that


sense, that is exactly what success in the economic policies, industrial


policy, that is what that enables to happen. Conservative opponents


naturally take issue with the idea of a new era of one nation politics.


It's very difficult to sustain the argument that a Theresa May


government on June nine, elected by millions of Ukip voters, advocating


fox hunting and selective education and hard Brexit, is somehow


representative of the rebirth of one nation conservativism! But veteran


Tories do see an historic opportunity to reclaim the mantle of


Benjamin Disraeli, Theresa May's personality, or the cult of no


personality, according to one unnamed catty Tory over the weekend,


lies at the heart of this appeal. I think that one of the reasons why


Theresa May is in such a strong position is first, there is a


distinct revulsion against the type of politician that Tony Blair and


David Cameron were. They want a person speaking orderly language to


them, they seemed concerned about their lot and their position, -- she


certainly does that and when she is re-elected, she is going to try, in


fact, to really help ordinary working families. Miss is that you


would argue that she was one nation Tory, certainly John Major was,


David Cameron, all of their different classes, the big society,


miss is that you created a property only democracy, fashioned campaigns.


But I'm sure that Theresa May, she has always described herself as a


one nation Tory, she is serious and sober and an evidence -based worker,


rather in the way that misses that was a scientist, she wanted the


evidence. It is not a belief driven support for Theresa May, it is her


support for her in aspects of a sense of competence, and believe


that government will probably be at its best with her rather than other


people. Ukip voters appear to be flocking to Theresa May, who is


winning over the purple army. You have a really very remarkable thing


going on, under Arron knows, right now, the creation of, in effect, a


new party, a merger between Theresa May and Nigel Farage, 4 million Ukip


voters at the last general election, the vast bulk of which by all


accounts would vote for the Conservatives. A new political


party, and that new party is not dumb to be one nation, it is a party


formed through the merger of the Conservative Party, and a pretty


right-wing and in some cases far right political movement, Ukip. I


I think Ukip has been a pernicious force, its social attitudes on many


things are nothing ISOs shared with, I hope that we will Ukip in the


selection, get back to having a conservative that governs for the


nation. The Tory tide appears to be flowing across Britain, if Theresa


May -- if Theresa May succeeds, will the British people have invested


their hopes in a new Benjamin Disraeli, or simply placed their


trust in a safe pair of hands in turbulent times?


A lot of speculation about a new centre-left pro-European party may


be formed after the general election if the polls are right and Labour


suffers a heavy defeat, in the interview, Nick Clegg gave me a


pretty strong hint that he is thinking very seriously about even


more cooperation among those pro-Europeans. This is what he told


me: It is clear that centre-ground


moderate internationalist economically credible socially


progressive voters in the United Kingdom are casting


about at the moment I don't think you can reheat


old coffee in politics generally but I equally don't think


that vacuums in British politics the Labour manifesto tomorrow, in


full, what more do we know? The BBC is reporting tonight that Labour


will pledge to nationalise the water industry, if elected, that will


reverse privatisation of 1989, big headlines on the manifesto but I


sense a certain frustration in Labour high command that their


thunder were stolen last week with the leak of the draft manifesto,


that means the focus tomorrow will be on the costing. John McDonnell,


Shadow Chancellor, will publish a full paper explaining how they will


pay for it and he will say that 95% of taxpayers will not pay any more


but the small number earning over ?80,000 will pay a small amount


more, and what that means is that we will see an increase for them but it


won't be going up to the 60% rate. And we will hit the airwaves, thank


you very much. More than one third of the NHS


trusts that were hit by Friday's cyber attack


are still facing problems. Around 200,000 computers


in 150 countries a virus which locks and threatens


to delete within a certain time Beyond the cyber criminals,


who's to blame for the vulnerability Chris Cook, our policy


editor, has a look. Everything in the modern NHS, from


scanners to their management is held together by computing. So it was a


big deal when 48 English hospital trusts and 11 Scottish health wards


were hit last week by a ransomware attack. Today, Haitians are still


being diverted in two endless hospitals. Who then is responsible


for the problems in England? For about a decade, up to 2011, there


was a programme to standardise all NHS IT, and massive national project


run from here in Whitehall, but frankly it didn't work, huge cost


overruns ran through the whole programme, and so, in 2011, the,


lesion passed responsibility for hospital IT down to the hospital


managers. This transfer of responsibility may have been


smoother but it came when money was really tight on the front line. It


is not that hospitals don't care about the security of IT systems,


and all of them understand that IT is vital as a tool to delivering


health care in the modern age. The problem is, the demands on the


capital budget are enormous. There is a ?5 billion backlog, of


maintenance for the NHS, and imaging equipment must be provided that make


sure that cancer patients can be diagnosed, these are urgent and


important demands on a very small budget. Hospitals have been coping


by squeezing equipment spending: backward


kill what we need to realise is that we are asking for hospital chief


executive to run businesses that have as much turnover and as many


staff as a FTSE 250 plc, effectively asking them to run very complex


estates, very complex IT infrastructure, as well as managing


high degrees of clinical risk. Part of the issue was that some hospitals


were not secure because their computers use an old version of


Microsoft Windows, Windows XP, and lots of hospitals under pressure


from government and elsewhere have been trying to sort that out, NHS


England sources have told me that in December 2015, 18% of NHS computers


were running windows XP, now it is just 4.7%, and a load of those are


hard to replace, because they are integrated parts of devices like MRI


scanners. And so 18 months ago, about four times as many English NHS


devices were using Windows XP. The effects of a malware attack, had it


happen, back then, would have been much worse.


STUDIO: I'm now joined by Kingsley Manning,


who until last year headed up NHS Digital.


Nice of you to come in. Is this first and foremost a money


programme? -- problem. I disagree with the analysis from Chris, there


are, capital is not the big issue, increasingly, dealing with software


issues, revenue spending, no, spending on staff, licensing,


equipment spending is relatively unimportant in this issue. Who is to


blame? Shame has been -- blame has been shifted to the Home Office,


Amber Rudd, is this NHS? Ultimately it is the full of the criminals.


What this tells us is... It is about the weaknesses in the NHS. We have


been preparing for the inevitability of this attack since 2013.


You knew this was coming? We knew at some point. This is not the first


cyber attack on the NHS. We have dealt with a number of cyber


attacks. You can say that you prepared for this. Potentially we


could have done more and there are weaknesses. The notion that we were


unprepared is wrong. We set up the body in Leeds run by NHS digital


work colleagues are working flat out to resolve problems and the


Secretary of State said the response was good. Is cyber crime always


going to be a step ahead? Is there something to be said for them


assuming one sure software can cope with axe, they move on to why? The


battle will go on and on, it is always one step ahead, if you're


lucky, one step ahead of the criminal and the terrors. The


stopping of it is more important? It is being prepared and it is a


cultural change in the NHS. There are weaknesses. Weakness and it is


difficult to recruit and retain professional staff in the NHS and is


difficult. Getting trust boards to take the issue seriously has been


difficult. They have other priorities and there is a question


about the role of NHS England... It has been 16 years, that is too long.


For many organisations, it is always a decision that can be delayed. They


hate spending money. Yes. Ultimately IT, although it is increasingly at


the heart of modern health care, it is not necessarily well understood.


Is that for us culturally or is that to do with health? We have had some


real problems in the perception of IT. Chris Kirk refers to the


programme which delivers some good things but it also delivered a


perception of failure which was wrong but it has remained. We have


had the tobacco over the release of data from GP systems and there is an


inherent suspicion and if you give clinicians a preference about where


they spend their money, and much of this is about individual


professionals taking this issue seriously. There is a line that has


been dropped that North Korea could be behind this. I have heard various


rumours. You can name anyone east of Berlin as a possibility. Thank you.


The capital appears to have seen a sharp rise in knife crime -


thirteen people stabbed to death in just over three weeks.


Of those deaths, one victim was in his thirties,


one in his forties and one in his 60s, But the rest


Data released last week from 32 police forces revealed two


and a half thousand weapons were seized at schools between April


2015 and the beginning of this year, including axes, air guns


So, what's happening and why now, when it seemed that there


was progress on tackling this kind of crime.


I'm joined by Dr Marian Fitzgerald Professor of Criminology


at the University of Kent and Sheldon Thomas, founder


and chief executive of Gangsline which aims to prevent gang violence.


Very nice to have you both here. What is actually happening? By these


statistics robust enough to say this is a sharp rise in knife crime? You


have to understand about the statistics, what we do is to count


the number of times that an officer who recalls a substantive offence of


violence and remember is to say a knife was involved. Sometimes they


do sometimes they don't. Knife crime becomes a crisis or when forces are


looking to claim that they have got a major problem of knife crime and


need new resources. So they might be ticking a box as a cry for help?


Well, it is hit and miss whether officers remember to do it, they do


it more for gun crime because it is far less common and far more serious


and there is more consistency where a gun is use, knife crime there is


far more if it and this situation, if their bosses are on their back


saying you must make sure that you do it, they are more likely to do it


and when the pressure is off, sometimes, was it really used? Was


really a knife? Some officers will go one way and others will go


another. The statistics, we have to be careful of but I think there is


an underlying problem and I think I know some of the factors involved,


but they are different in the Metropolitan Police to other forces.


How would you explain it? You have been in gangs and you talk about


gangs and know how they operate. Is that at the heart of this are we


missing something? First, we have to acknowledge how statistics work,


they only go by as Doctor Fitzgerald said by actual police canteen


figures. A lot of young men do not go to the hospital who gets stats so


the figures will most probably be a lot higher and we are at crisis


point, not just the capital but throughout the country. Our gangs at


the centre? They were to begin with and I would say at the moment it has


become a culture and that is what people do not understand, it is not


only a culture amongst young people to carry knives. What do you mean?


How many kids in London for example would carry a knife each time they


left the house? I could not put a figure on it but I would say a lot


of the kids growing up in particular areas would definitely carry out of


fear. During the daytime? It is the fear of not wanting to be part of


the gang and they would carry it in case they get bullied or intimidated


and the other part would be, it has become a culture because of the


music they listen to. A lot of these guys are listening to music that


promote the gangster image and it is about, I have got my knife or my


drugs and that is part of their lifestyle. How much do you think


stop and search has played a part, either negative or positive? I think


Sheldon made an important point. The first thing we have got to do is


take the fears of young people seriously because young people


generally have been demonised in this and a lot of kids in very


serious and violent areas and a lot of the violence going on between


adults, guns going off and so on, there is a of young people and are


very frightened and I have had experienced police officers saying


to me, do not tell them that they are safer to go out there into those


streets in those are some areas without anything to protect


themselves, because they will laugh at you. They are far more scared of


being found by that hard core of young people. Our police officers


saying they should be carrying weapons? No, no they are not but we


need to understand that as one officer said to me, they are far


more frightened of that hard-core of seriously violent people, whether it


is adults or other children, who would stop at nothing, if they have


nothing to protect themselves and they are more scared of them and


getting nicked by the old Bill. This is a normalisation of something that


is inconceivable and if we are now talking... It is inconceivable for


middle classes. Is it rising or not? It is rising. Or we are discussing


here is why our young people carrying knives and we have to


discuss the fear and social factors, we have to look at, these guys who


carry weapons, are more scared of the gang members are more scared of


people who are very violent and very confrontational than they are of the


law. This idea of going around and telling people do not carry a knife


or gun, it is ludicrous, because we do not live with a live. Can you


imagine growing up on an estate were 70% of the people on that the state


had no father figures? Mass unemployment, mothers are


struggling, kids are growing up and their gangs everywhere? This is


their lives and some of these kids, to get to school have to take six or


seven buses around to get to a school, just to avoid maybe a gang


member or a young person. We have to understand their lives. They are in


a parallel universe that does not run alongside ours. You have got a


hard-core of people that you need to target instead of taking a


scatter-gun approach to all young people who are frightened and trying


to protect themselves and their siblings and their mothers. Unless


you bring them on side and take out the people they are frightened of,


you're not going to get you very much.


Elections come and go - even we know that.


But sometimes they are defined by an image.


John Prescott punching a voter, John Major on his soapbox.


For election 2017 there's one image that will stay


with you long after the adrenalin of the campaign has faded.


He's got an update on the data - the Tory battle ground seats -


Chris. The first thing I will show you is a graph that maps out all of


the Tory and Labour sees and you can see them. This is like a swingometer


and what it tells you is how many seats each party gets. If there is a


swing towards Labour, they will pick up seats here and if there is a


swing towards the Tories they will pick up seats here. We can draw in


an estimate that shows the current state of the polling and what it


looks like is that the moment, the likely a sort of outcome is for


quite big Tory gains, around 70 or so Labour's seats flipping to the


Conservatives. The dark is solid. These are apparent Tory seats. Those


are remaining Labour seats. This dark blue zone, areas like the front


line of the battle, those are the seats with the Tories think they can


flip them. The seats here, are very important. If we draw in where


Theresa May has been on visits, these are the black squares here,


you can see, there is one here, there are a few over here, they are


quite Ukip or Labour. She is not really thinking she's going to get


those. There are quite odd seats. Almost all of her visits are in this


corridor and you can see that she has really homed in on this battle


ground area. The next two weeks will be uphill, pretty much. Possibly. If


they think that they are doing better, they will push out there


visits this way. It is clear therein that battle ground. If we draw in


Jeremy Corbyn's visits. He is going to a lot of very safe Labour seats


and he is going to a lot of marginal but some quite safe Tory seat, he is


not really going into this area and one of the odd things is that it


looks like Jeremy Corbyn is fighting a campaign that implies Labour will


pick up seats while Theresa May is fighting a campaign that implies


Tories will pick up seats. We cannot wait.


Good night. Thank you for joining us.


Most of us are now at some stage, we are not finish with the wet weather




Download Subtitles