15/05/2017 Newsnight


15/05/2017

A look at the Conservatives' attitude towards workers' rights, the cyber attack that struck the NHS, knife crime, and Jeremy Corbyn's battleground seats. Emily Maitlis presents.


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Forget about a hundred years of history, the Conservatives

:00:00.:00:08.

promise to be the party that stands up for workers rights.

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They unveil a raft of new proposals - but what does it actually mean

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It depends what average earnings are, but what he said was that,

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the national living wage should be 60% of the median wage, if you like.

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So if wages do not rise as much, will you fill that gap and make sure

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It has just been announced that Ian Brady has died. Is that the end of

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the story of the Morris murderers. Also tonight, whose fault is it

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the NHS got hit so hard There is a ?5 billion backlog

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of maintenance for the NHS and the IT budget has got to provide

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things like imaging equipment that makes sure that cancer

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patients can be diagnosed. These are urgent and important

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demands on a very small budget. The Conservatives have initiated

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a series of practical measures Or an audacious land grab on prime

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Labour real estate - The Prime Minister pledges

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new protections for people in the gig economy, a right

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to training and measures to protect But today the Tories refused

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to confirm the National Living Wage would reach 9 pounds an hour by 2020

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- as George Osborne - Our political editor

:01:43.:01:45.

Nick Watt is with us now. A big moment. It was. I have been

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trying to identify about how Theresa May may take to fashion one nation

:02:02.:02:05.

Conservative to her vision about how the country should be run and

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workers' rights is that the hard and the reason for that is one of her

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insights from Brexit was not just about to leave the EU, it was a cry

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of anguish from people who feel left behind by globalisation. These

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pledges today are designed by her to show that she really means business

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about making globalisation work for those people who feel left behind.

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She needs a mandate on this to face down critics in her own party. She

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lost a battle in the Cabinet in the autumn about getting workers sitting

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on cup -- on boards, one verse and said this did not work in Germany.

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That idea, it comes back, although the language and wording about who

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will sit on the boards is not too clear.

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Well we will see Nick's take on One Nation Conservatism

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in a moment but first, to that interview with Damien Green,

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I asked why the Tories were looking for this major shift of emphasis

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And he explained it was partly as a result of Brexit.

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There were too many people who felt that the system did not give them

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a fair crack of the whip and Theresa May has made clear that

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since she went into Downing Street making this a country that works

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for everyone is key to her, and a large part of that is making

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sure that everyone benefits from a rising tide of prosperity.

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There will be viewers sitting at home saying, this

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is quite frankly laughable, that the Conservatives

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are trying to pitch themselves as the party of workers' rights,

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the government that tried to bring in anti-strike clause,

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that saw huge increases in zero hours contract, that attempted

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to shut down trade unions, they're not going to get

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This government has not tried to shut down trade unions,

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trade unions have a role to play, but people who think that making

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strikes more difficult is in any way anti-work or anti-ordinary people

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Zero hours contract, the percentage of people on zero

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hours contracts who are happy to have them is about 70,

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less than 3% of the workforce is on zero hours contract,

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the average amount of time worked by someone on zero hours

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contract is 25 hours, so actually, they're rather popular

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My point is, you can correct the perception that you don't care

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about workers' rights really simply, you end the public sector pay pinch.

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You know that you have nurses who are about to go on strike

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You know that you have public sector workers who are feeling the squeeze

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That's the way to correct that perception.

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Wages aren't stagnant, we had to take difficult decisions

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In fact pay progression among nurses means that the average pay increase

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is 3% but yes of course everyone is concerned.

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Nurses do a great job, we've got more nurses than ever before.

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You're short of 40,000 nurses, that suggests there is a problem

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for you with drawing people into the profession.

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There are still more people applying and places for training and so on.

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And we have got thousands more nurses than there were in 2010.

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But there is a wider range of aspects to workers'

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Pay has gone up particularly at the bottom end of the pay scale

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because of the introduction of the national living wage,

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which we now pledged to keep increasing until 2022,

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because of that, those at the bottom end of the pay scale have had

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particularly high pay rises, they've had an average of 6%

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over the last two years, as compared to inflation running

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So let's look at the national living wage, then.

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Will that be would George Osborne set out as Chancellor,

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It will be, we're doing it on the basis of the suggested

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projection by George Bain, who used to run the Low Pay unit...

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It depends on what average earnings are, because what he said

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was that the national living wage should be 60% of the median wage.

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So if wages don't rise as much, will you fill that gap and make sure

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We said we are aiming at 60%, it's below 60% right now so this

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will guarantee an increase over the coming years, exactly how far it

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So it might not get to ?9 an hour, that is something you have to accept

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of median wages, obviously it will depend upon what happens

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Right, so you've got Labour saying...

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?10 an hour, a nice fat round sum, and you've got the Conservatives

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saying, we're not quite sure, it depends on the median

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average raise and the rate at which it goes up,

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that's a fairly stark choice if you're looking

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Except that what we're doing, with that and with the other

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part of this proposal, are making a practical set

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of proposals, clearly you have to balance the national living wage,

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as we do both in terms of taking sure people are paid a fair amount

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and making sure that the jobs are available for them to do,

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that you are not pricing them out of the jobs market.

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We have been spectacularly successful at getting people

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into work, we have created the best part three mini extra jobs,

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we've got more people in employment never before.

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More women in employment than ever before.

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We don't want to put that at risk but at the same time we do

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want to have a national living wage that enables people

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to live decently, that is what we are achieving.

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Another Labour commitment is maximum pay ratios, 20/1.

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In the public sector or anyone tending for public sector work,

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will you stick to that kind of pay ratio?

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I think having arbitrary pay ratios like that probably isn't the best

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way to help workers, I think the proposal...

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It sends out a signal that you know that the people at the top can't

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carry on getting inordinate amounts more money than the

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Sending out a signal is what governments in the past

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have done too often, what we are proposing is a practical

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package of measures that will make a difference to people in their real

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lives, the ability to take time off to train, the ability to take

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time off to be a carer, the knowledge that because we giving

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extra powers to the pensions regulator, that your workplace

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pension will be better protected in future,

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that is what will make a difference to people in their daily lives,

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So you get a year off to look after somebody, unpaid,

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you are giving people a year of unpaid leave.

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We've looked at the system in Ireland, where this system

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works perfectly well, and most people don't take

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the full year, it's often a much shorter period,

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If you're a low paid worker and somebody is offering you a year

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to look after your elderly parent, without money, that's

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Different people will have different individual

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This is about workers' rights, isn't it?

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And the right to be able to say, look, something has happened

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in my family, I need to take a couple of months off before I can

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sort out the new situation, and knowing that your job

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is guaranteed at the end of that, that removes a significant amount

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of stress from people perhaps particularly at a difficult

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time of their lives, that is a proper practical

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Let's look at a very practical example of workers' rights,

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Uber is trying to renew its licence next month, is a Tory government

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going to insist that it will improve its workers' rights

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I don't want to talk about individual companies...

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We have set up quite deliberately in this area of what we will now

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call the gig economy, where Uber drivers and Deliveroo...

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You know very well, Uber was taken to court,

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it was found wanting in terms of its care for its workers,

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so you could say, "We are the party of workers' rights.

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We will not guarantee a new licence for Uber until it changes the way

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Making laws to deal with individual companies is often

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So let's look at the whole sector, and that is what we are doing,

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we have set Matthew Taylor to do a report precisely

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When Labour says, we want to intervene in the market and look

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at rail nationalisation, you call them socialist,

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But, you know, when the Tories suggest intervention in,

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you know, the energy sector, it's somehow standing up

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I don't call Labour socialist or Marxists, they call

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themselves socialists, and in the case of John

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They're not proposing intervention, they're proposing renationalisation

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But what they want to do is have it run by a statement not blue,

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and everyone over a certain age can remember what happened...

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Two years ago it would have been crazy to intervene in the energy

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sector when it was the desire of Ed Miliband, his suggestion,

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that it is absolutely right because it is Theresa May and a Tory

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policy, that is what people have a problem with,

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they do not understand where you stand on this.

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Ed Miliband's policy was for a freeze.

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His actual policy was particularly daft because he said

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he was going to freeze prices just before the oil price fell,

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which actually reduced prices, his freeze would have kept

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We say it is a cap on certain types of tariff if companies are not

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It has been announced that the Moors Murderer Ian Brady has died. Ian

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Brady and Murray Hendley sexually tortured and murdered five children

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between 1963 and 1965. The couple buried at least some of the bodies

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of Saddleworth Moor. Ian Brady died at a psychiatric hospital on

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Merseyside and he takes to the grave the location of the grave of Keith

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Bennett. There have been desperate pleas from the boys relatives for

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Ian Brady to reveal his burial site. We are joined by the former is

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police officer who represents the victims. This is just broken in the

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last few minutes, give us your first thoughts. My first thoughts are that

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these two individuals, Myra Hindley and Ian Brady, they murdered five

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young children, one of whom was Lesley Ann Downey and I represented

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her family. When they murdered her, she was only ten years of age, she

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was lost on the Moritz and they recorded but they actually did to

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her. I remember staying with her mother and father, a number of times

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and I met them dozens of times and the grief and torment that I saw in

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their faces was beyond probably many that I have actually met. I have met

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hundreds of families who have had families murdered. -- family members

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murdered. To know that your daughter was lost, alone and murdered and

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then her death was recorded, the grief can never ever be etched from

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your mind and those two individuals, Ian Brady and then they did not just

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destroyed the lives of five young children, through their relentless

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appeals and false hopes that they gave the families, for over 50

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years, destroyed all of the families as well, even to this day. He never

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released the burial site of Keith Bennett and that family never

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recovered. Keith's mother went to her grave tormented in the way that

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you describe, having begged him many times, do you understand that

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mentality? They both had serious psychological injury -- issues and

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they played nine games with the media and Keith Bennett, I remember

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his mother and the other families as well, and when you saw them on the

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television, you could only imagine the torment. When we get up and we

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have had bad days, we hope the next day will be better, but when you

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have had someone murdered, certainly in the circumstances that Myra

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Hindley and Ian Brady murdered them, that is torture that exists 20 four

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sevenths and you can never comprehend it. I sometimes try to

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comprehend how these families exist and when I look into their faces, I

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see an emptiness and with every murder, time stops and life changes

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and for all the victims of Myra Hindley and Ian Brady, life changed

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forever. They had a life sentence for over 50 years and today, I do

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not know if it will bring closure to anyone because sadly many of their

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families, parents have died as well. talk about psychological issues,

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because this case caused something of... I don't know, a complication

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in the public mind, this idea of mental ill health against pure evil,

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people said they were not mentally ill, that this was pure evil? You

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are right, you are absolutely right, I describe Myra Hindley and Ian

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bravely as two of the most evil people I have ever met, and they are

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evil beyond belief. -- Ian Brady. And maybe the two of them tried to

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fool prison authorities with their mind games, by playing mind games

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about the state of mind that they committed those murders, and not

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everybody who commits a murder is psychiatrically ill. Probably, they

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weren't psychiatrically ill, but they tried to convince us, and every

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time they tried to convince us, it's twisted the knife in the wings of

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all of those families a little more. And many of them, as I say, they

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have died without peace, I remember seeing the mother of Lesley Ann

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Downey, in her coffin, and I looked at the body, look at the face, and

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even in death, I saw meant in her face, and I have seen many dead

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bodies as a police officer. And I hope there is respite for the family

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still alive today. -- knife in the wounds. Those families that have

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lived with over 50 years of grief and pure torment. Thank you for

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sharing your time with us this evening, we appreciate it. Returning

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to the election news now. We've heard about One

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Nation Conservatism - as a modern concept -

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for the best part of a decade. But what does that mantel mean -

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and can anyone wear it. Two nations between whom there is no

:16:55.:17:03.

intercourse and no sympathy. Who are as ignorant of each other's habits,

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thoughts and feelings as if they were dwellers in different zones. Or

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inhabitants of different planets. Sounds familiar? A century and a

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half after Benjamin Disraeli's earring description of a nation

:17:21.:17:26.

divided by poverty, Theresa May is casting herself as the true guardian

:17:27.:17:36.

of his unifying one nation credo. In the Prime Minister's mind, today's

:17:37.:17:39.

announcement of new workers' rights delivered on her pledge to unite the

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nation after the referendum. Theresa May believes that "Brexit" marked a

:17:43.:17:47.

cry from people who feel left behind by globalisation, she wants to show

:17:48.:17:54.

how the economy can work for all and scoop up Labour votes. We can see

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the Tory party return as the one nation party geographically, I'm not

:17:59.:18:04.

sure ideological, but geographically, yes, and it looks

:18:05.:18:08.

likely to pick up seats in the north, in the Midlands, maybe a

:18:09.:18:11.

comeback in Scotland and seats in Wales as well, if you think about

:18:12.:18:14.

the way a Stole seats from the Lib Democrats last time, that is a party

:18:15.:18:18.

that can claim, probably for the first time, at least since the 1980s

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and pro will be since the 1950s, to represent the whole of the country.

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But electoral success then, and possibly next month, was not just

:18:29.:18:33.

about geography. -- at least since the 1980s and probably since the

:18:34.:18:39.

1950s. This may not be a long-term gain for the Tory party but on this

:18:40.:18:43.

occasion, I think it is likely that Theresa May and the Conservative

:18:44.:18:46.

Party will pull together a combination of people, almost in the

:18:47.:18:50.

way that Ronald Reagan did in the United States. Pulling together

:18:51.:18:55.

people who were traditionally Democrat, traditionally Labour,

:18:56.:18:59.

through Ukip, into the Tory column. Winning wide support would free

:19:00.:19:02.

Theresa May to govern according to her vision of Benjamin Disraeli's

:19:03.:19:13.

one nation, Theresa May -- Mayism will have some resonance with the

:19:14.:19:17.

right, she reached out to Ukip, saying that we are citizens of

:19:18.:19:21.

nowhere, but the one nation claim on the Tory left will welcome today's

:19:22.:19:26.

pledges on workers' rights. The Prime Minister's own philosopher

:19:27.:19:32.

king, Nick Timothy, who crafted "Mayism", was inspired by one of the

:19:33.:19:37.

great municipal figures, Joe Chamberlain. He is actually the

:19:38.:19:41.

right inspiration for this, he was very clear, when he became mayor of

:19:42.:19:46.

Birmingham, and indeed, he went on to do national politics, but he

:19:47.:19:49.

believed in a vibrant industrial -based economy, to improve in his

:19:50.:19:54.

words not mine, the conditions of the masses. To many conservatives,

:19:55.:20:02.

the new West Midlands mare revives the template on how to reach out

:20:03.:20:07.

beyond Tory comfort zones. The tradition of one nation

:20:08.:20:10.

conservatism, of course, is a real fervent belief that the public

:20:11.:20:14.

services must be first-class, have to be well funded, and in that

:20:15.:20:20.

sense, that is exactly what success in the economic policies, industrial

:20:21.:20:25.

policy, that is what that enables to happen. Conservative opponents

:20:26.:20:31.

naturally take issue with the idea of a new era of one nation politics.

:20:32.:20:35.

It's very difficult to sustain the argument that a Theresa May

:20:36.:20:42.

government on June nine, elected by millions of Ukip voters, advocating

:20:43.:20:47.

fox hunting and selective education and hard Brexit, is somehow

:20:48.:20:52.

representative of the rebirth of one nation conservativism! But veteran

:20:53.:20:58.

Tories do see an historic opportunity to reclaim the mantle of

:20:59.:21:03.

Benjamin Disraeli, Theresa May's personality, or the cult of no

:21:04.:21:07.

personality, according to one unnamed catty Tory over the weekend,

:21:08.:21:11.

lies at the heart of this appeal. I think that one of the reasons why

:21:12.:21:15.

Theresa May is in such a strong position is first, there is a

:21:16.:21:18.

distinct revulsion against the type of politician that Tony Blair and

:21:19.:21:26.

David Cameron were. They want a person speaking orderly language to

:21:27.:21:31.

them, they seemed concerned about their lot and their position, -- she

:21:32.:21:36.

certainly does that and when she is re-elected, she is going to try, in

:21:37.:21:40.

fact, to really help ordinary working families. Miss is that you

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would argue that she was one nation Tory, certainly John Major was,

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David Cameron, all of their different classes, the big society,

:21:50.:21:54.

miss is that you created a property only democracy, fashioned campaigns.

:21:55.:21:59.

But I'm sure that Theresa May, she has always described herself as a

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one nation Tory, she is serious and sober and an evidence -based worker,

:22:04.:22:08.

rather in the way that misses that was a scientist, she wanted the

:22:09.:22:12.

evidence. It is not a belief driven support for Theresa May, it is her

:22:13.:22:17.

support for her in aspects of a sense of competence, and believe

:22:18.:22:22.

that government will probably be at its best with her rather than other

:22:23.:22:30.

people. Ukip voters appear to be flocking to Theresa May, who is

:22:31.:22:36.

winning over the purple army. You have a really very remarkable thing

:22:37.:22:39.

going on, under Arron knows, right now, the creation of, in effect, a

:22:40.:22:44.

new party, a merger between Theresa May and Nigel Farage, 4 million Ukip

:22:45.:22:49.

voters at the last general election, the vast bulk of which by all

:22:50.:22:52.

accounts would vote for the Conservatives. A new political

:22:53.:22:56.

party, and that new party is not dumb to be one nation, it is a party

:22:57.:23:00.

formed through the merger of the Conservative Party, and a pretty

:23:01.:23:07.

right-wing and in some cases far right political movement, Ukip. I

:23:08.:23:11.

I think Ukip has been a pernicious force, its social attitudes on many

:23:12.:23:19.

things are nothing ISOs shared with, I hope that we will Ukip in the

:23:20.:23:24.

selection, get back to having a conservative that governs for the

:23:25.:23:30.

nation. The Tory tide appears to be flowing across Britain, if Theresa

:23:31.:23:38.

May -- if Theresa May succeeds, will the British people have invested

:23:39.:23:41.

their hopes in a new Benjamin Disraeli, or simply placed their

:23:42.:23:45.

trust in a safe pair of hands in turbulent times?

:23:46.:23:53.

A lot of speculation about a new centre-left pro-European party may

:23:54.:24:04.

be formed after the general election if the polls are right and Labour

:24:05.:24:07.

suffers a heavy defeat, in the interview, Nick Clegg gave me a

:24:08.:24:12.

pretty strong hint that he is thinking very seriously about even

:24:13.:24:15.

more cooperation among those pro-Europeans. This is what he told

:24:16.:24:16.

me: It is clear that centre-ground

:24:17.:24:18.

moderate internationalist economically credible socially

:24:19.:24:20.

progressive voters in the United Kingdom are casting

:24:21.:24:22.

about at the moment I don't think you can reheat

:24:23.:24:24.

old coffee in politics generally but I equally don't think

:24:25.:24:29.

that vacuums in British politics the Labour manifesto tomorrow, in

:24:30.:24:53.

full, what more do we know? The BBC is reporting tonight that Labour

:24:54.:24:55.

will pledge to nationalise the water industry, if elected, that will

:24:56.:25:00.

reverse privatisation of 1989, big headlines on the manifesto but I

:25:01.:25:03.

sense a certain frustration in Labour high command that their

:25:04.:25:08.

thunder were stolen last week with the leak of the draft manifesto,

:25:09.:25:11.

that means the focus tomorrow will be on the costing. John McDonnell,

:25:12.:25:15.

Shadow Chancellor, will publish a full paper explaining how they will

:25:16.:25:20.

pay for it and he will say that 95% of taxpayers will not pay any more

:25:21.:25:25.

but the small number earning over ?80,000 will pay a small amount

:25:26.:25:31.

more, and what that means is that we will see an increase for them but it

:25:32.:25:36.

won't be going up to the 60% rate. And we will hit the airwaves, thank

:25:37.:25:38.

you very much. More than one third of the NHS

:25:39.:25:42.

trusts that were hit by Friday's cyber attack

:25:43.:25:46.

are still facing problems. Around 200,000 computers

:25:47.:25:50.

in 150 countries a virus which locks and threatens

:25:51.:25:53.

to delete within a certain time Beyond the cyber criminals,

:25:54.:25:59.

who's to blame for the vulnerability Chris Cook, our policy

:26:00.:26:02.

editor, has a look. Everything in the modern NHS, from

:26:03.:26:14.

scanners to their management is held together by computing. So it was a

:26:15.:26:19.

big deal when 48 English hospital trusts and 11 Scottish health wards

:26:20.:26:23.

were hit last week by a ransomware attack. Today, Haitians are still

:26:24.:26:29.

being diverted in two endless hospitals. Who then is responsible

:26:30.:26:33.

for the problems in England? For about a decade, up to 2011, there

:26:34.:26:38.

was a programme to standardise all NHS IT, and massive national project

:26:39.:26:44.

run from here in Whitehall, but frankly it didn't work, huge cost

:26:45.:26:50.

overruns ran through the whole programme, and so, in 2011, the,

:26:51.:26:55.

lesion passed responsibility for hospital IT down to the hospital

:26:56.:27:00.

managers. This transfer of responsibility may have been

:27:01.:27:03.

smoother but it came when money was really tight on the front line. It

:27:04.:27:08.

is not that hospitals don't care about the security of IT systems,

:27:09.:27:12.

and all of them understand that IT is vital as a tool to delivering

:27:13.:27:17.

health care in the modern age. The problem is, the demands on the

:27:18.:27:24.

capital budget are enormous. There is a ?5 billion backlog, of

:27:25.:27:28.

maintenance for the NHS, and imaging equipment must be provided that make

:27:29.:27:32.

sure that cancer patients can be diagnosed, these are urgent and

:27:33.:27:36.

important demands on a very small budget. Hospitals have been coping

:27:37.:27:41.

by squeezing equipment spending: backward

:27:42.:27:55.

kill what we need to realise is that we are asking for hospital chief

:27:56.:28:02.

executive to run businesses that have as much turnover and as many

:28:03.:28:06.

staff as a FTSE 250 plc, effectively asking them to run very complex

:28:07.:28:12.

estates, very complex IT infrastructure, as well as managing

:28:13.:28:17.

high degrees of clinical risk. Part of the issue was that some hospitals

:28:18.:28:21.

were not secure because their computers use an old version of

:28:22.:28:28.

Microsoft Windows, Windows XP, and lots of hospitals under pressure

:28:29.:28:30.

from government and elsewhere have been trying to sort that out, NHS

:28:31.:28:36.

England sources have told me that in December 2015, 18% of NHS computers

:28:37.:28:41.

were running windows XP, now it is just 4.7%, and a load of those are

:28:42.:28:47.

hard to replace, because they are integrated parts of devices like MRI

:28:48.:28:54.

scanners. And so 18 months ago, about four times as many English NHS

:28:55.:28:59.

devices were using Windows XP. The effects of a malware attack, had it

:29:00.:29:02.

happen, back then, would have been much worse.

:29:03.:29:09.

STUDIO: I'm now joined by Kingsley Manning,

:29:10.:29:10.

who until last year headed up NHS Digital.

:29:11.:29:12.

Nice of you to come in. Is this first and foremost a money

:29:13.:29:20.

programme? -- problem. I disagree with the analysis from Chris, there

:29:21.:29:24.

are, capital is not the big issue, increasingly, dealing with software

:29:25.:29:27.

issues, revenue spending, no, spending on staff, licensing,

:29:28.:29:32.

equipment spending is relatively unimportant in this issue. Who is to

:29:33.:29:39.

blame? Shame has been -- blame has been shifted to the Home Office,

:29:40.:29:43.

Amber Rudd, is this NHS? Ultimately it is the full of the criminals.

:29:44.:29:48.

What this tells us is... It is about the weaknesses in the NHS. We have

:29:49.:29:52.

been preparing for the inevitability of this attack since 2013.

:29:53.:30:09.

You knew this was coming? We knew at some point. This is not the first

:30:10.:30:13.

cyber attack on the NHS. We have dealt with a number of cyber

:30:14.:30:18.

attacks. You can say that you prepared for this. Potentially we

:30:19.:30:23.

could have done more and there are weaknesses. The notion that we were

:30:24.:30:30.

unprepared is wrong. We set up the body in Leeds run by NHS digital

:30:31.:30:36.

work colleagues are working flat out to resolve problems and the

:30:37.:30:39.

Secretary of State said the response was good. Is cyber crime always

:30:40.:30:43.

going to be a step ahead? Is there something to be said for them

:30:44.:30:48.

assuming one sure software can cope with axe, they move on to why? The

:30:49.:30:55.

battle will go on and on, it is always one step ahead, if you're

:30:56.:30:58.

lucky, one step ahead of the criminal and the terrors. The

:30:59.:31:06.

stopping of it is more important? It is being prepared and it is a

:31:07.:31:11.

cultural change in the NHS. There are weaknesses. Weakness and it is

:31:12.:31:17.

difficult to recruit and retain professional staff in the NHS and is

:31:18.:31:23.

difficult. Getting trust boards to take the issue seriously has been

:31:24.:31:26.

difficult. They have other priorities and there is a question

:31:27.:31:33.

about the role of NHS England... It has been 16 years, that is too long.

:31:34.:31:40.

For many organisations, it is always a decision that can be delayed. They

:31:41.:31:48.

hate spending money. Yes. Ultimately IT, although it is increasingly at

:31:49.:31:52.

the heart of modern health care, it is not necessarily well understood.

:31:53.:31:57.

Is that for us culturally or is that to do with health? We have had some

:31:58.:32:04.

real problems in the perception of IT. Chris Kirk refers to the

:32:05.:32:07.

programme which delivers some good things but it also delivered a

:32:08.:32:11.

perception of failure which was wrong but it has remained. We have

:32:12.:32:17.

had the tobacco over the release of data from GP systems and there is an

:32:18.:32:22.

inherent suspicion and if you give clinicians a preference about where

:32:23.:32:28.

they spend their money, and much of this is about individual

:32:29.:32:31.

professionals taking this issue seriously. There is a line that has

:32:32.:32:36.

been dropped that North Korea could be behind this. I have heard various

:32:37.:32:47.

rumours. You can name anyone east of Berlin as a possibility. Thank you.

:32:48.:32:50.

The capital appears to have seen a sharp rise in knife crime -

:32:51.:32:53.

thirteen people stabbed to death in just over three weeks.

:32:54.:32:55.

Of those deaths, one victim was in his thirties,

:32:56.:32:57.

one in his forties and one in his 60s, But the rest

:32:58.:33:00.

Data released last week from 32 police forces revealed two

:33:01.:33:06.

and a half thousand weapons were seized at schools between April

:33:07.:33:09.

2015 and the beginning of this year, including axes, air guns

:33:10.:33:12.

So, what's happening and why now, when it seemed that there

:33:13.:33:20.

was progress on tackling this kind of crime.

:33:21.:33:22.

I'm joined by Dr Marian Fitzgerald Professor of Criminology

:33:23.:33:24.

at the University of Kent and Sheldon Thomas, founder

:33:25.:33:26.

and chief executive of Gangsline which aims to prevent gang violence.

:33:27.:33:36.

Very nice to have you both here. What is actually happening? By these

:33:37.:33:45.

statistics robust enough to say this is a sharp rise in knife crime? You

:33:46.:33:50.

have to understand about the statistics, what we do is to count

:33:51.:33:55.

the number of times that an officer who recalls a substantive offence of

:33:56.:33:59.

violence and remember is to say a knife was involved. Sometimes they

:34:00.:34:10.

do sometimes they don't. Knife crime becomes a crisis or when forces are

:34:11.:34:14.

looking to claim that they have got a major problem of knife crime and

:34:15.:34:19.

need new resources. So they might be ticking a box as a cry for help?

:34:20.:34:27.

Well, it is hit and miss whether officers remember to do it, they do

:34:28.:34:31.

it more for gun crime because it is far less common and far more serious

:34:32.:34:36.

and there is more consistency where a gun is use, knife crime there is

:34:37.:34:43.

far more if it and this situation, if their bosses are on their back

:34:44.:34:47.

saying you must make sure that you do it, they are more likely to do it

:34:48.:34:52.

and when the pressure is off, sometimes, was it really used? Was

:34:53.:34:58.

really a knife? Some officers will go one way and others will go

:34:59.:35:02.

another. The statistics, we have to be careful of but I think there is

:35:03.:35:05.

an underlying problem and I think I know some of the factors involved,

:35:06.:35:11.

but they are different in the Metropolitan Police to other forces.

:35:12.:35:15.

How would you explain it? You have been in gangs and you talk about

:35:16.:35:19.

gangs and know how they operate. Is that at the heart of this are we

:35:20.:35:27.

missing something? First, we have to acknowledge how statistics work,

:35:28.:35:33.

they only go by as Doctor Fitzgerald said by actual police canteen

:35:34.:35:37.

figures. A lot of young men do not go to the hospital who gets stats so

:35:38.:35:41.

the figures will most probably be a lot higher and we are at crisis

:35:42.:35:46.

point, not just the capital but throughout the country. Our gangs at

:35:47.:35:50.

the centre? They were to begin with and I would say at the moment it has

:35:51.:35:54.

become a culture and that is what people do not understand, it is not

:35:55.:35:58.

only a culture amongst young people to carry knives. What do you mean?

:35:59.:36:17.

How many kids in London for example would carry a knife each time they

:36:18.:36:22.

left the house? I could not put a figure on it but I would say a lot

:36:23.:36:25.

of the kids growing up in particular areas would definitely carry out of

:36:26.:36:27.

fear. During the daytime? It is the fear of not wanting to be part of

:36:28.:36:31.

the gang and they would carry it in case they get bullied or intimidated

:36:32.:36:33.

and the other part would be, it has become a culture because of the

:36:34.:36:36.

music they listen to. A lot of these guys are listening to music that

:36:37.:36:39.

promote the gangster image and it is about, I have got my knife or my

:36:40.:36:42.

drugs and that is part of their lifestyle. How much do you think

:36:43.:36:45.

stop and search has played a part, either negative or positive? I think

:36:46.:36:51.

Sheldon made an important point. The first thing we have got to do is

:36:52.:36:54.

take the fears of young people seriously because young people

:36:55.:36:58.

generally have been demonised in this and a lot of kids in very

:36:59.:37:03.

serious and violent areas and a lot of the violence going on between

:37:04.:37:07.

adults, guns going off and so on, there is a of young people and are

:37:08.:37:14.

very frightened and I have had experienced police officers saying

:37:15.:37:17.

to me, do not tell them that they are safer to go out there into those

:37:18.:37:21.

streets in those are some areas without anything to protect

:37:22.:37:24.

themselves, because they will laugh at you. They are far more scared of

:37:25.:37:31.

being found by that hard core of young people. Our police officers

:37:32.:37:34.

saying they should be carrying weapons? No, no they are not but we

:37:35.:37:38.

need to understand that as one officer said to me, they are far

:37:39.:37:44.

more frightened of that hard-core of seriously violent people, whether it

:37:45.:37:48.

is adults or other children, who would stop at nothing, if they have

:37:49.:37:51.

nothing to protect themselves and they are more scared of them and

:37:52.:37:56.

getting nicked by the old Bill. This is a normalisation of something that

:37:57.:38:00.

is inconceivable and if we are now talking... It is inconceivable for

:38:01.:38:06.

middle classes. Is it rising or not? It is rising. Or we are discussing

:38:07.:38:10.

here is why our young people carrying knives and we have to

:38:11.:38:15.

discuss the fear and social factors, we have to look at, these guys who

:38:16.:38:18.

carry weapons, are more scared of the gang members are more scared of

:38:19.:38:23.

people who are very violent and very confrontational than they are of the

:38:24.:38:28.

law. This idea of going around and telling people do not carry a knife

:38:29.:38:32.

or gun, it is ludicrous, because we do not live with a live. Can you

:38:33.:38:36.

imagine growing up on an estate were 70% of the people on that the state

:38:37.:38:41.

had no father figures? Mass unemployment, mothers are

:38:42.:38:45.

struggling, kids are growing up and their gangs everywhere? This is

:38:46.:38:57.

their lives and some of these kids, to get to school have to take six or

:38:58.:39:00.

seven buses around to get to a school, just to avoid maybe a gang

:39:01.:39:03.

member or a young person. We have to understand their lives. They are in

:39:04.:39:06.

a parallel universe that does not run alongside ours. You have got a

:39:07.:39:10.

hard-core of people that you need to target instead of taking a

:39:11.:39:13.

scatter-gun approach to all young people who are frightened and trying

:39:14.:39:17.

to protect themselves and their siblings and their mothers. Unless

:39:18.:39:21.

you bring them on side and take out the people they are frightened of,

:39:22.:39:32.

you're not going to get you very much.

:39:33.:39:37.

Elections come and go - even we know that.

:39:38.:39:39.

But sometimes they are defined by an image.

:39:40.:39:41.

John Prescott punching a voter, John Major on his soapbox.

:39:42.:39:44.

For election 2017 there's one image that will stay

:39:45.:39:47.

with you long after the adrenalin of the campaign has faded.

:39:48.:39:49.

He's got an update on the data - the Tory battle ground seats -

:39:50.:39:54.

Chris. The first thing I will show you is a graph that maps out all of

:39:55.:40:01.

the Tory and Labour sees and you can see them. This is like a swingometer

:40:02.:40:06.

and what it tells you is how many seats each party gets. If there is a

:40:07.:40:10.

swing towards Labour, they will pick up seats here and if there is a

:40:11.:40:13.

swing towards the Tories they will pick up seats here. We can draw in

:40:14.:40:19.

an estimate that shows the current state of the polling and what it

:40:20.:40:24.

looks like is that the moment, the likely a sort of outcome is for

:40:25.:40:29.

quite big Tory gains, around 70 or so Labour's seats flipping to the

:40:30.:40:34.

Conservatives. The dark is solid. These are apparent Tory seats. Those

:40:35.:40:40.

are remaining Labour seats. This dark blue zone, areas like the front

:40:41.:40:45.

line of the battle, those are the seats with the Tories think they can

:40:46.:40:51.

flip them. The seats here, are very important. If we draw in where

:40:52.:40:56.

Theresa May has been on visits, these are the black squares here,

:40:57.:41:01.

you can see, there is one here, there are a few over here, they are

:41:02.:41:07.

quite Ukip or Labour. She is not really thinking she's going to get

:41:08.:41:13.

those. There are quite odd seats. Almost all of her visits are in this

:41:14.:41:16.

corridor and you can see that she has really homed in on this battle

:41:17.:41:23.

ground area. The next two weeks will be uphill, pretty much. Possibly. If

:41:24.:41:28.

they think that they are doing better, they will push out there

:41:29.:41:33.

visits this way. It is clear therein that battle ground. If we draw in

:41:34.:41:39.

Jeremy Corbyn's visits. He is going to a lot of very safe Labour seats

:41:40.:41:45.

and he is going to a lot of marginal but some quite safe Tory seat, he is

:41:46.:41:50.

not really going into this area and one of the odd things is that it

:41:51.:41:55.

looks like Jeremy Corbyn is fighting a campaign that implies Labour will

:41:56.:41:58.

pick up seats while Theresa May is fighting a campaign that implies

:41:59.:42:02.

Tories will pick up seats. We cannot wait.

:42:03.:42:03.

Good night. Thank you for joining us.

:42:04.:42:21.

Most of us are now at some stage, we are not finish with the wet weather

:42:22.:42:25.

yet.

:42:26.:42:27.

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