18/05/2017 Newsnight


18/05/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.


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Transcript


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The Tories don't seem to want you to.

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Five years later because of our long-term economic plan and the

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difficult decision... Come with me as I lead Britain. Strengthen our

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hand as I fight for Britain and stand with me as I deliver for

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Britain. Theresa May spells out a more

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statist Conservatism - ditching dozens of her predecessor's

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policies from just two years ago. When our political editor asked,

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she was reluctant to define one. There is no Mayism. I know that you

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journalists like to write about it. One thing that's unchanged

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is the Tory immigration target. The Defence Secretary tells us

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whether it will continue to be as functionally meaningless as it

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has been for the last It is an aim and we intend to

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continue to aim to reduce the level of immigration as we have set out.

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Also tonight we are in blazing sunshine in Hartlepool which binds

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itself on the Tory target list for the first time in decades. Can team

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Theresa's narrative land them their first MPs year for half a century? I

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like their policies at the moment, I want to leave the European Union and

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I think Theresa May is the only person who will get us out of the

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European Union with a reasonable deal. Labour. I've always been

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Labour. And our panel will tell us

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where Theresa May sits on our map Some of us remember

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the heydey of TV advertising. Consumer brands - washing

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powders and the like - would constantly market themselves

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as new and improved. Never mind that they were less

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than perfect before, as long as you now understood

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that they are better than ever. Well, the Conservative

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party is pitching itself A Theresa May manifesto,

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with a pretty different A section entitled We Believe

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in the Good That Government Can Do, Some will say it's just

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marketing, others will see it Certainly, the emphasis on scaling

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back the relative generosity displayed to the elderly

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is a notable shift. The point of continuity

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is the immigration pledge - it'll come down to tens

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of thousands apparently. But we'll either look back on this

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day as a momentous one in the history of the Tory party,

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or as a forgettable attempt to be Let's start with our political

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editor Nick Watt, who is in Salford where there has been

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an ITV leaders' debate. Nick, what do you think we learned

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today? That's right, the ITV leaders debate although sadly not with the

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two plausible candidates for Prime Minister. But we saw plenty of

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Theresa May at the launch of the Tory manifesto in Halifax and it was

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interesting there because what you said earlier was that she made clear

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that she does not feel beholden to any of her predecessors. So she

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jumped some key elements of David Cameron 's manifesto from 2015. Out

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went the tax lock so there's no pledge on

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rates of income tax and national insurance and in came a commitment

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that means that people will have to pay the cost of domiciliary home

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care. This is what one senior Tory told me. Theresa May's brand in

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focus groups is so resilient that it can withstand some radical moves

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that would have been suicidal two years ago. While you get your

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earpiece in, Nick, one of the rationales for this election was

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Brexit and making sure that she had a majority, in her view, to get

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through Brexit. Reading that manifesto what does it tell us about

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her plan for that? She has given herself an enormous amount of

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wriggle room on Brexit. We see it on two fronts. On public finances, a

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senior Tory told me, she is removing the landmines on tax that could be

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really difficult if we have a bumpy economic ride when those Brexit

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negotiations are under way and a little noticed section in the

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manifesto indicated that the Conservative Party would be prepared

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to settle its financial bill when it leaves the EU. And one Tory I spoke

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to said to me, the Prime Minister in the last year has embraced Ukip. She

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has embraced the Tory right but what he is now showing is coming she gets

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a big mandate on June eight she is prepared to walk away from them and

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sign up to a deal that really would be quite unpalatable. So today we

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really were looking at how liberated Theresa May would like to govern

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this country. It was all a bit reminiscent of the 1980s, Tory Prime

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Minister ventures into Labour territory with the inevitable and

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loud protests. The tightly controlled Tory election campaign

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machine was briefly thrown off-course as the protesters greeted

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the arrival of Theresa May. Naturally our strong and stable

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Prime Minister was not bothered as she took to the podium to tell the

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nation it just who is the politician who was known as the submarine Home

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Secretary in her last job. Is there a philosophy? One and we will be

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talking about in decades to come? It is occasionally said that it's

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difficult to define what is meant by Mayism but if you turn to Page nine

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of your manifesto it says you reject the cult of softness individualism

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and you regard such selfish gradualism and you regard the dogma

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of is dangerous. That seems like a rejection of Thatcherism, are you

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rejecting personally the comparisons between you and Mrs Thatcher? There

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is no Mayism. I know that you journalists like to write about it!

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There is good solid conservatism, which puts the interest of the

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country and the interests of ordinary working people at the heart

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of everything that we do in government. The assembled cabinet

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ministers clubbed dutifully as they were put on notice to avoid any talk

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of an ism but there was plenty of what George Bush senior memorably

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called the vision thing. So join me on this journey, come with me as I

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lead Britain, strengthen my hand as I fight for Britain and stand with

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me as I deliver for Britain. By infighting former sparring partner

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David Davis to introduce the commission show that you believe

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that Brexit is the defining challenge of this generation. Our

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future prosperity, place in the world, standard of living, the

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opportunities we want for our children and children's children,

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each and everyone depends on having the strongest possible hand as we

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enter those negotiations to get the best Brexit steel for families

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across this country. My prayer ministerial dressing down shows that

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Theresa May abhors what she described in her little blue book is

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the caricature is an idea of placing people on the left or the right. But

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it would be remiss not to identify the clear lessons we learned about

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her today. She believes she is the only party leader who truly

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understands the cry of anguish that drove the Brexit vote. That means

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being fearless in challenging traditional Tory thinking and

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breaking with the Cameron legacy. Manifestos, said Churchill, should

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be a lighthouse, not a shop window. Today's bright light showed the

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Prime Minister is prepared to confront the Tory right by dropping

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David Cameron 's pledge not to increase income tax and national

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insurance, although she does rule and a rise in VAT. Pensioners, by

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downgrading the triple lock of a guaranteed 2.5% rise in the basic

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state pension to a less generous double lock. Middle England, by

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saying they would be allowed to preserve no more than ?100,000 of

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their assets to pay for social care. Big business by venturing into

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territory once claimed by Ed Miliband, with tougher rules on

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corporate pay. Theresa May chose Halifax for the launch of her

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manifesto to show that she is confident of recapturing a seat that

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has not elected Tory MP since Margaret Thatcher's heyday in 1983.

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Labour still enjoys support in the town although the Prime Minister

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does appear to be cutting through. Have you always voted Labour? Have

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you decided how you will vote? What do you think of Theresa May? I think

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she's doing a good job. So far, yeah. She's doing fine. Give her the

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mandate to do it. I was definitely the Conservatives but this morning

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the manifesto that I heard, the pensioners, ?200 of fuel allowance,

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she's going to knock that off to pay for the pensioners that are

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higher... I don't think that's right. I know what it is fair but I

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did not like the idea of it. From what I've heard of the Labour Party

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I like the manifesto, I must say. With protests ringing in her ears,

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Theresa May set off to sell division two parts of Britain where the

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Tories have been shunned the decades. -- to sell her vision.

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Complacency is would officially banned at Tory HQ but senior

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ministers are increasingly confident that the Prime Minister appears to

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be on the verge of victory. Let's speak to our policy

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editor Chris Cook. You have read all the manifestos of

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the main parties, Chris, what did you make of this one. One quite

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striking thing about this is that it doesn't do well in one of the tests

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are set for the Labour Party when we talked about this on Tuesday. I said

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one thing you want from a good manifesto is a sense of whether the

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people behind this have a good enough understanding of the issues,

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that they have done their homework so that they can credibly deliver.

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It doesn't mean it is a fully worked out timetable, it is showing a

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working, showing knowledge. And the odd thing about this one, especially

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after the Labour and Liberal manifestos which were very detailed,

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things to contest in all of them but very detailed, there is no working

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at all in this. It's actually slightly mysterious how much these

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social care changes will bring in, what these tax changes will do, all

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this stuff is completely asserted. It's a booklet almost without

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numbers in it. They give you the answers without the calculations.

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Thank you Chris,. That's a good point

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to move on to the Defence His job today was not to defend

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the country, but the manifesto. I spoke to him this afternoon

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and asked if I had somehow missed the costings section

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of the document. Well, what you missed are the wild

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promises we sought from Labour, all that extraordinary, billions more to

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be borrowed and so on. What you have seen today our commitments to spend

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more in two areas, we are already spending more on the NHS, we are

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spending more on defence but today we announced ?4 billion more for

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schools and we have made it clear where that is coming from and we

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have announced additional resources for social care, for the first

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time... I'm sorry, you have also announced additional resources for

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the industrial strategy and four and the spending. We have but the two

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big areas today schools and social care... The costings document that

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sets out the costs and whether that will work, is that coming later

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ordered I miss it or is it online? You haven't missed it. Some of these

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things will depend on the level, for example, we will consult on the

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level of the means test by which wealthier people will be asked to

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surrender the winter fuel allowance. So some of the detail is still to be

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consulted on as you would expect. On the immigration pledge to get

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immigration down, and you costed that one. As someone done some work

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and said this is how much it will cost the Exchequer because my

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understanding is that the Office for Budget Responsibility thinks cutting

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migration will cost the Exchequer. Have you guys costed that proposal?

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There has been various academic work done on the cost of immigration. We

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have made it clear that we accept that there is a cost and we want to

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make sure that British companies to contribute to the training of

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British workers when they want to fill that post... Sorry to

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interrupt, I know you have not got much time. How much is it going to

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cost the Exchequer to get immigration down by two thirds from

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its current level? Well we haven't set out a formulation of how much it

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will reduce by each year, what we have set out as our ambition to

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continue to bear down... It is a policy to get immigration down to

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tens of thousands, is it not? It is our ambition... Is it not a policy?

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It is an ambition and we've had it in previous manifestos. Was the

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difference between an ambition and a policy, you've had it in previous

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manifestos and have probably not delivered. I isn't that by repeating

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it there is some meaning to it this time. It as our aim to bear down on

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immigration and for the first time it will become easier as we leave

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the EU, they will be no further entitlement to freedom of movement,

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at the moment it is animated, anyone in Bulgaria or Lithuania can up

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sticks and come... Even if we regarded all the EU immigrants

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you are nowhere near it. Is it something you are going to deliver?

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It is an aim and we will continue to aim to reduce the level of

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immigration that we have set out. Sir Michael, this is sounding a

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little weak. I thought your policy was to get immigration down to the

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tens of thousands, it sounds like this is not a policy at all. It is,

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it is our aim and we have said so. We will get it done. Of you costed

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that proposal, that is my point. You blame Labour for not costing bears,

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have you costed yours because the OBR says it will cost money. You

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need to cost proposals where you will

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spend billions of pounds... That this will cost billions. No, it

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won't. How do you know if you haven't costed it. The OBR doesn't

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say it will cost millions, with great respect. If you are going to

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nationalise an industry they will be an enormous cost to that. We are

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going to manage properly the number of people coming into this country.

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The OBR models different migration scenarios and there are billions of

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pounds of differences that amounts to millions of pounds of Exchequer

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differences between those assumptions. I put it to you again,

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have you costed the proposal to get immigration down by two thirds from

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its current level. We have not because we don't know specifically

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in what year we will reach that point of reducing it to tens of

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thousands but we set it out today, you keep interrupting me, we set out

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the additional charge we will impose on British companies when they are

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employing other workers, where British people could be taking those

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jobs so we will be ensuring that there is some payment towards those

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costs. It sounds like a pledge made in the morning has turned into a

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vague game which doesn't need costing by the afternoon.

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Can we move onto another area, the industrial strategy? Theresa May

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said they want to make the party more prosperous and who will with

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that. -- will quarrel with that? You have a few pages on this and I was

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troubled myself to boil it down to what is at the centre of it. What do

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you see as the heart of the industrial strategy? We have set out

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our industrial strategy in other documents and we have been

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consulting on it. It is a policy of providing our industries,

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particularly in regions outside London, and in ensuring we have the

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skills base and the focus on the new technologies that will strengthen

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our economy, and ensure we continue to earn our place in the world. It

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covers everything from shipbuilding to investment in digital, and a

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revival through our city deals... The relationship between central

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government and the mayors in the regions. But what is the actual

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policy? You have outlined the objective and I understand that.

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What is the tool that is going to revive, without much money because

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you said there will not be much money, but what is that will deliver

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the new industrial strategy, or revive industries in those areas?

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One of the principal tools is the relationship, as I said, between

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central and local government, for the first time empowering

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particularly the mayors in their regions but also the cities of our

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country, empowering them with local budgets so they can prioritise in

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their own areas and make the choices needed between improving the

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infrastructure, improving the human capital and to decide which of the

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industries they wanted to see grow in their particular areas. And to

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focus on. That work is already underway, we are consulting on the

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detail, but this is built around investment in the new technologies,

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a revival of manufacturing, and an unerring emphasis on skills. Can I

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ask you, changing the subject, would you say we have had strong and

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stable government for the last two years, between this and the last

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election? We have had a relatively small majority in parliament. And we

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have had to deal with the aftermath of the referendum result, and we

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need to get through implementing the referendum, and we need to get on

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beyond Brexit to build a stronger and fairer Britain, and that is why

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we need a stronger and more stable Government for Theresa May to deal

:19:09.:19:12.

with both of those challenges. I think most people looking back over

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the last couple of years would consider them the two most unstable

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years since the Second World War in the history of this country, and I

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just wonder why we should believe you when you say you will be strong

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and stable this time as opposed to the coalition of chaos or whatever

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your slogan is, when you use the same formulation or the two years

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ago before inaugurating two of the most unstable years anyone can

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remember? Theresa May made clear today when she wants the manifesto

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that the challenge of negotiating a successful exit from the European

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Union is one of the difficult things any government is doing in this

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country and has done since the Second World War, and to do that you

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do need stable leadership, you do need strong government, back here at

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home, and that is why she is requesting this fresh mandate from

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the British people that will enable her not just to do that but to go

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beyond Brexit and build a stronger and fairer Britain that can ever in

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its place in the world. Sur Michael Fallon, thank you very much indeed.

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Has Theresa May cracked Britain's social care problem?

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-- Sir Michael Fallon, thank you very much indeed.

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The immediate problem is that it is underfunded, the long

:20:30.:20:31.

term problem is that we haven't found a way of helping people

:20:32.:20:34.

who need care pay for it, other than suggesting they burn

:20:35.:20:37.

The manifesto today basically continues that approach.

:20:38.:20:40.

Overall, however, the document is not stuffed with largesse

:20:41.:20:42.

That might be said to be a break with the past.

:20:43.:20:45.

Chris Cook has been looking at what it implies for pensioners.

:20:46.:20:48.

This year the Conservative Party is getting a lot of support

:20:49.:20:55.

from older voters, but it is watering down its support for them.

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A Conservative Government would not renew the so-called triple lock

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on the state pension when it expires in 2020.

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The pension will still rise with prices or earnings -

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whichever is higher - but they will no longer be a minimum

:21:13.:21:14.

On current forecasts scrapping the triple lock does not make

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a great deal of difference at all in the coming years,

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They were quite recently, and in past years the triple lock

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And in the long term, even if the forecasts are right,

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the triple lock does add up to start costing quite a lot of money,

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so it is an important shift in that sense

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and it is also a really symbolic shift with billions of pounds

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still to come out of working-age benefits in coming years.

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It marks a slightly different approach in terms

:21:49.:21:50.

Which generations and which age groups the Conservative

:21:51.:21:53.

The most eye-catching proposal, though, is for a big change

:21:54.:21:56.

At the moment, if you are in a residential home,

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you have to pay for it until you have ?23,250

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left in possession, which is when state

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That calculation includes all your assets, including your house. People

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in this situation would be winners from these plans. Everything stays

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the same for them, but the state takes over funding their care

:22:20.:22:25.

earlier, when they hit ?100,000 of assets, so their potential care bill

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is smaller. What we also see is those people worried that there are

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savings, that they have done the right thing and see through their

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lives and are worried their savings will dwindle to virtually nothing,

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we are quadrupling the threshold at which assets will be protected to

:22:41.:22:46.

that ?100,000. F, though, you're receiving care at home, things are

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different. At the moment those people have to pay for care through

:22:50.:22:56.

their assets until they hit ?20,250 when the state help starts. It

:22:57.:23:04.

houses are excluded from that sum, so people looked after in their

:23:05.:23:06.

homes have to run down their savings but get to keep their homes. Under

:23:07.:23:09.

the Tory plans they would stop running down their own cash sooner

:23:10.:23:13.

when they hit ?100,000, but the value of their houses will be

:23:14.:23:17.

included in the means test, saw a lot of people in care at home,

:23:18.:23:20.

so-called domiciliary care, would now be liable to pay much more. The

:23:21.:23:25.

Tories have also promised, though, that payment of money from housing

:23:26.:23:31.

assets can be delayed until the care recipient dies. Those elderly people

:23:32.:23:34.

who have been worried about how they pay for care in their home want to

:23:35.:23:38.

have to worry about that in the future. They will not have to pay

:23:39.:23:41.

while they are still alive, they will... Nothing will be paid. They

:23:42.:23:45.

will not have to sell their home while they have been living in it.

:23:46.:23:49.

The plan is intended to get more cash out of pensioners well not

:23:50.:23:54.

demanding they leave home. A major objective for people like

:23:55.:23:58.

97-year-old Tony Barsky. I have been offered the opportunity to go into a

:23:59.:24:05.

care home, but I would like to be here, to spend the rest of my life

:24:06.:24:09.

here, surrounded by my belongings and everything running on that

:24:10.:24:15.

basis. I don't want to be out of this place. The key things to

:24:16.:24:22.

celebrate about today's position on social care are bringing money into

:24:23.:24:27.

the system, bringing assets into the table to pump much-needed cash into

:24:28.:24:32.

a social care system which is really struggling and underfunded. At the

:24:33.:24:40.

same time, providing more care to poorer pensioners and protecting

:24:41.:24:43.

more poorer pensioners' assets whether they live in a care home

:24:44.:24:47.

residential home. Those that are welcome. Previous proposals to

:24:48.:24:51.

reform social care have also identified a problem that these

:24:52.:24:54.

proposals simply do not touch. Namely, the fact that if you are

:24:55.:24:58.

unlucky enough to have very poor health in your old age, you also get

:24:59.:25:03.

billed for it, so families, individual families, bear the

:25:04.:25:09.

financial risk of illness in old age. So this change puts more money

:25:10.:25:13.

into the existing care system, in the form of that housing wealth held

:25:14.:25:21.

by the 670,000 -- the people in domiciliary care in England but it

:25:22.:25:24.

does not seek to make life less compression is. The people who need

:25:25.:25:32.

most help will still be asked to pay the most.

:25:33.:25:35.

So we now have the Tory manifesto and we can try to define

:25:36.:25:38.

what the party is all about under Theresa May.

:25:39.:25:41.

And a good time to deploy our blackboard.

:25:42.:25:43.

You'll pick up the rules as we play the game.

:25:44.:25:50.

We have the left-right spectrum along here on the X axis; this

:25:51.:25:53.

And then up the side, on the Y axis, it goes

:25:54.:25:59.

from the outward, globalist position to nationalist, or protectionist.

:26:00.:26:05.

Let's call that nationalised even though it says protectionist there.

:26:06.:26:11.

Let's call that nationalist even though it says protectionist

:26:12.:26:14.

And we have three seasoned political commentators with us to place

:26:15.:26:16.

Theresa May and other Tory grandees on the scale.

:26:17.:26:19.

Paul Mason, who's off this scale on the left.

:26:20.:26:37.

We have Iain Dale, on the right, LBC presenter.

:26:38.:26:40.

Miranda, where would you put Theresa May? I will put her down here, quite

:26:41.:26:55.

protectionist, and left of the Tory party Y axis. But as a champion of

:26:56.:27:00.

the free market, as a globalist she could be more up here. Can I... We

:27:01.:27:05.

should not forget one of the extraordinary thing is happening is

:27:06.:27:07.

the Conservative Party dumping the Single Market... Which was her

:27:08.:27:12.

thing. Yes, so I would definitely put her down here, and whether you

:27:13.:27:20.

want to call it red Toryism, and I know she denied there was such a

:27:21.:27:24.

thing as May-ism... You will put her down there. Paul, how would you

:27:25.:27:33.

position this? Look, there are no Uihleins left a smash, nothing left

:27:34.:27:37.

to privatise, so it is hard to be as right-wing as Thatcher -- there are

:27:38.:27:44.

no unions left to smash. Protectionist, down there. She is an

:27:45.:27:48.

economic nationalised. There is one sentence in that manifesto that

:27:49.:27:51.

reveals that, her preparedness to walk away from Europe without a

:27:52.:27:55.

deal. She could have left that out. I think the idea of literally

:27:56.:28:01.

declaring UDI from Europe, leaving ourselves and economy with no

:28:02.:28:04.

market, that is quite nationalised. I think until we know how this is

:28:05.:28:08.

costed, how big is the state going to be when they eventually get rid

:28:09.:28:13.

of the deficit in the mid 2020s, then we don't know really how the

:28:14.:28:16.

left and right it is and that is why it is a good question, what is the

:28:17.:28:21.

economic content... Miranda put there on the left presumably because

:28:22.:28:25.

of the economic measures, sending quite left-wing... Intervening in

:28:26.:28:31.

markets, controlling executive pay. Not the sort of free-market, liberal

:28:32.:28:37.

market Toryism we are used in the last couple of decades. Shouldn't

:28:38.:28:43.

you be her? No, it is a form of bright Toryism. And I did cover the

:28:44.:28:49.

rise of Cameron, and he was a genuinely liberal conservative. This

:28:50.:28:57.

is antiliberal conservativism. What about you, Iain? I will disagree

:28:58.:29:00.

with your positioning of David Cameron because I actually think he

:29:01.:29:03.

is to the right of John Major. I would put him more up here as well.

:29:04.:29:07.

Margaret Thatcher I think is absolutely right. But you could make

:29:08.:29:12.

a good case for going further up. I want you to put Theresa May on the

:29:13.:29:17.

map. If you had asked this question yesterday I would have put her

:29:18.:29:23.

somewhere around here. Oh, really? Today I would put her somewhere

:29:24.:29:27.

around here, and the reason is if you are going to be a globalist, you

:29:28.:29:32.

don't penalised companies for bringing in skilled workers from

:29:33.:29:34.

overseas and that is what she has done today in this manifesto, a

:29:35.:29:38.

bizarre thing to do in my view. If you're going to be an outward

:29:39.:29:41.

looking country after Brexit you want to recruit the strongest, the

:29:42.:29:46.

best... You or more of an economic liberal on things like immigration

:29:47.:29:51.

than she is? Absolutely. Thanks, Iain. And you wrote a book on the

:29:52.:29:57.

history of Tory manifesto is from 1900. I edited a collection of them.

:29:58.:30:01.

I would not say I wrote them. I did the Liberals as well, just to prove

:30:02.:30:06.

what a sad geek I am. What do you think of this one as a pitch? It is

:30:07.:30:10.

very Theresa May in that there is not a lot in it. This general

:30:11.:30:15.

election is about her against Corbyn, not about policy, in her

:30:16.:30:19.

view, and it is also not about Brexit. It is strange there are only

:30:20.:30:23.

two pages in this manifesto about Brexit. A little similar to Margaret

:30:24.:30:27.

Thatcher's manifesto in 79 in the sense it is very vague and general

:30:28.:30:32.

but if you are Tory canvasser going out tomorrow what is the standout

:30:33.:30:36.

policy in this document you go on sale on the doorstep? I'm afraid I

:30:37.:30:40.

can't think of one. That is right and there are some real risks in it.

:30:41.:30:44.

This idea of challenging older people who are sitting on a lot of

:30:45.:30:48.

assets, telling them they will have to pay for their own care, you would

:30:49.:30:52.

only do that and make that sort of proposition to the electorate if you

:30:53.:31:01.

were so secure of your victory and so secure of those older voters but

:31:02.:31:04.

it is a risk. I read something saying if you can't basically do

:31:05.:31:07.

some of this now you will not be able to do it, when you are 50%

:31:08.:31:11.

ahead in the polls. If she gets a big landslide it will be important

:31:12.:31:13.

for her to confront some of these issues early on. Paul, you disagreed

:31:14.:31:19.

with she goes, telling us this left and right thing is not working in

:31:20.:31:23.

British politics at the moment... In the space of week both parties have

:31:24.:31:29.

effectively the fact to change the momentum. Labour is now a Keynesian

:31:30.:31:33.

big state interventionist party like it was before and is anti-austerity,

:31:34.:31:38.

and it interesting thing about the Conservatives, how often have you or

:31:39.:31:41.

I when I worked your sat in the studio and spoke about austerity and

:31:42.:31:47.

about the sums adding up? That is gone. Labour are substantiated the

:31:48.:31:51.

fiscal case behind their manifesto better than the Conservatives. I

:31:52.:31:57.

want to say one thing. The attack on pensioners, on the taxpayer, so she

:31:58.:32:01.

will probably raise national insurance and income tax, it goes

:32:02.:32:04.

along side the inability any more to do what Duncan, -- Duncan Smith and

:32:05.:32:11.

Cameron did, to attack those welfare benefits. I think conservatives

:32:12.:32:13.

alike realise there is no further road to go down there. One thing I

:32:14.:32:19.

was taught about the history of the Conservative Party, it was

:32:20.:32:22.

fantastically adaptable and would reinvent itself every few decades to

:32:23.:32:25.

suit the new mood, bring more people into its tent, and the world would

:32:26.:32:28.

be safe under the Tories again. Is this one of those big moments, do

:32:29.:32:34.

you think, Miranda, or is it just another manifesto that will be

:32:35.:32:35.

forgotten? Or is it really decisive? It feels like a moment today because

:32:36.:32:47.

it feels as if Theresa May and the people around her designing these

:32:48.:32:50.

policies have decided to come in this brilliantly opportunistic way

:32:51.:32:55.

that the Tories have always been good at, occupy the ground that has

:32:56.:33:01.

been abandoned, claimed that Labour territory which is all about

:33:02.:33:05.

sticking up for working families, in the parlance. We have yet to see if

:33:06.:33:10.

this audacious land grab works because a lot of it, as Iain rightly

:33:11.:33:15.

said, the details are not there. For example, something I am interested

:33:16.:33:19.

in is the skills agenda. If you could solve the missing bits of the

:33:20.:33:23.

educational programme in this country and create a decent

:33:24.:33:31.

educational... But can it? Just to finish, Iain, do you think this is a

:33:32.:33:34.

big moment in the history of the Tory party, a reinvention of curling

:33:35.:33:39.

or not. I think we are in the middle of that. I think today is not that

:33:40.:33:43.

moment, June the 8th of May well be and it is about defining herself in

:33:44.:33:48.

opposition to Cameron, if you like. But there are lots of individual

:33:49.:33:53.

policies in this and a festival like domestic violence policies that you

:33:54.:33:56.

would not have gotten a previous manifestos. Liberal parts but they

:33:57.:34:01.

are almost obliterated by the ridiculous immigration pledge. We

:34:02.:34:04.

had better leave it there. Thank you all very much.

:34:05.:34:07.

A big question in this election is what happens to people

:34:08.:34:09.

Many of them don't have a Ukip candidate this time; many others

:34:10.:34:13.

Now in many Labour seats there were enough Ukip voters last

:34:14.:34:18.

time to put a Tory into Westminster this time, if they all wanted to.

:34:19.:34:21.

Hartlepool is one of those constituencies, so the question

:34:22.:34:23.

is how the Conservative Party offer is going down with the folks there?

:34:24.:34:26.

Is it enough to turn Ukip voters into Tories?

:34:27.:34:28.

Hartlepool washed in warm sunshine gives off an air of unreality,

:34:29.:34:39.

The town has earned its place in electoral history

:34:40.:34:45.

as much through mythology as through psephology.

:34:46.:34:51.

Legend has it they hanged a shipwrecked monkey

:34:52.:34:53.

as a Frenchman in Napoleonic days, but the election of the self-styled

:34:54.:34:56.

monkey candidate for mayor - not once, but twice -

:34:57.:34:59.

And it was here that the former MP Peter Mandelson was once accused

:35:00.:35:07.

of mistaking mushy peas for guacamole in a local

:35:08.:35:10.

He didn't, of course - it was a gimmick joke,

:35:11.:35:13.

but it stuck because it played to a delicious cliche,

:35:14.:35:16.

the Southern Metropolitan confusing his northern culture.

:35:17.:35:20.

Mandelson surfed in here in the wave of New Labour,

:35:21.:35:23.

This time the Tories are hoping to hoover them up.

:35:24.:35:35.

But with the launch of today's manifesto, the mushy pea

:35:36.:35:37.

Can Conservatives, long shunned in the industrial north-east,

:35:38.:35:48.

convince Hartlepool they're on the side of -

:35:49.:35:51.

to coin today's phrase - ordinary working people

:35:52.:35:52.

Mostly, I've only ever voted for one other party and that was last year

:35:53.:35:57.

And what's bringing you back to Conservative?

:35:58.:36:00.

I want to leave the European Union and I think Theresa May is the only

:36:01.:36:09.

person who's going to get us out of the European Union

:36:10.:36:11.

Labour, I've always been Labour because it's

:36:12.:36:16.

Right, so nothing will change your mind?

:36:17.:36:19.

I think they're more for people who haven't got a lot of money,

:36:20.:36:26.

because what the Conservatives have done recently, it's...

:36:27.:36:32.

There hasn't been a Tory MP in this part of the world for over 50 years,

:36:33.:36:35.

but there is an audacity of approach this time.

:36:36.:36:39.

They've sent a big beast, David Davis, here to

:36:40.:36:41.

Over lunch, I ask him if he thinks it's an ambition too far.

:36:42.:36:50.

What we're seeing on the doorsteps is people who've never voted

:36:51.:36:52.

Conservative in their lives before saying they're going to vote

:36:53.:36:55.

for Theresa May because they think that she will deliver a better deal

:36:56.:36:58.

Are you more of a mushy peas man or a guacamole man?

:36:59.:37:04.

Being me and being so working class I'm mushy peas, I'm afraid.

:37:05.:37:11.

In Mandelson's seat it's a good question.

:37:12.:37:13.

Do you mind if I leave you one of these?

:37:14.:37:15.

I'm your Conservative candidate during the election.

:37:16.:37:17.

Carl Jackson is hoping to win Hartlepool for the Conservatives.

:37:18.:37:19.

He's currently a councillor in Buckinghamshire,

:37:20.:37:22.

Don't they say, what are you doing up here?

:37:23.:37:26.

Well, I'm not going to pretend to have been

:37:27.:37:28.

born in Hartlepool - I wasn't.

:37:29.:37:29.

It didn't seem to stop Peter Mandelson being

:37:30.:37:31.

He was born in one of the poshest parts of London.

:37:32.:37:38.

But I have family from the north-east and this is an area

:37:39.:37:40.

I know, it is an area I care about, and it's an area which

:37:41.:37:44.

Do you mind if I leave you with a leaflet just with a few points.

:37:45.:37:52.

He voted for Brexit, as did 70% of Hartlepool,

:37:53.:38:00.

so does that mean job done for Ukip here?

:38:01.:38:02.

For from it, says Phillip Broughton, the only one of the candidates

:38:03.:38:05.

who stood last time, when he came second.

:38:06.:38:11.

I think the Tories know that this is a Ukip -

:38:12.:38:14.

seat, and Ukip or Labour is going to win, and people have got

:38:15.:38:20.

a very clear choice, Emily, on June 8th.

:38:21.:38:22.

If the vote Conservative or they vote Labour they will get

:38:23.:38:24.

a Labour MP and nothing will change and it will be business as usual.

:38:25.:38:28.

And I've lived in the town for 18-odd years...

:38:29.:38:30.

Mike Hill suddenly found himself the prospective Labour candidate

:38:31.:38:32.

when Iain Wright stepped down as the election was called.

:38:33.:38:34.

I was just listening to that at the moment, the Government

:38:35.:38:37.

Motorbike licences - a reminder that even in this big

:38:38.:38:40.

week of manifestos most people are just thinking about

:38:41.:38:43.

I'm sure it's going to be a hard fight to claw back for Labour...

:38:44.:38:47.

Because if the Tories pick up that Ukip vote this time around,

:38:48.:38:50.

The conversations I am having a very positive.

:38:51.:39:03.

I represent a fresh start for Labour in this town and that's

:39:04.:39:07.

The gleaming marina speaks to a Hartlepool reborn,

:39:08.:39:11.

but the thousands of jobs lost here when heavy industry shutdown

:39:12.:39:14.

The Conservatives have never really cared about Hartlepool,

:39:15.:39:17.

and I don't think the leopard's going to change its spots.

:39:18.:39:20.

I think as soon as the media's gone, they'll ravage Hartlepool.

:39:21.:39:22.

Labour have had many many chances in Hartlepool,

:39:23.:39:25.

both nationally and locally, and as I walk around

:39:26.:39:34.

the town and speak to people there are very despondent

:39:35.:39:37.

There's an appetite with Brexit for a fresh start here, but don't

:39:38.:39:41.

Hartlepool's headland has seen the ebb and flow of centuries

:39:42.:39:44.

Their defences may now prove too solid.

:39:45.:39:55.

Emily in Hartlepool. I am afraid the labels on the Ukip and Labour

:39:56.:40:01.

candidates were the wrong way round so the Ukip guy was first and the

:40:02.:40:06.

Labour guy was after him, I think that was obvious from some of the

:40:07.:40:10.

content. Is this a momentous moment, the Daily Mail thinks so if you look

:40:11.:40:18.

at the headline, the Tories, 84 page manifesto unveiling Mayism, she

:40:19.:40:20.

hates, politics entered a new era. That's all we've got

:40:21.:40:24.

time for this evening. # In the sun on my disgrace

:40:25.:41:02.

# Some moustache... # Call my name and I hear you scream

:41:03.:41:15.

again. # Black hole sound, won't you come

:41:16.:41:23.

and wash away the rain # Black hole Sun, won't you come

:41:24.:41:26.

# Won't you come

:41:27.:41:27.

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