26/05/2017 Newsnight

Was this the week that changed the election?

We talk to the man that invented the swingometer,

David Butler, who tells me he's never seen anything like it.

Anything may happen. The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a

bigger movement that has occurred in any previous election.

Donald Trump's time abroad comes to a close.

But just what is awaiting him at home with the Russia Investigation?

It would be a terrible thing if someone who was president of the

United States knowingly profited of laundering money for criminals. It

would be even worse if the President of the United States' business

profited of laundering money for the Russian state.

And Divided Britain - Katie Razzall looks

at the faultlines on the question of Scottish independence.

I would hate to separate from the UK. I would love, I'm quite happy to

be part of the British Isles, just not the UK. You haven't really got

the choice I you've got a really big hammer drill.

Remember those heady days when this election seemed boring?

When we were sick of the stage managed, unwavering

Many feared the electoral outcome had already been written

on something more permanent than the fated EdStone.

A week that began with a monumental Uturn, soon forgotten in the torment

And from its wake, a campaign that emerged refocussed -on national

A poll today showed Labour slashing the Conservative

We'll be speaking to David Butler in a moment -

the psephologist who has seen more from the frontline of electoral

So is this a question of voters genuinely changing their minds?

Or of a nation too shattered to know what it thinks right now.

At the beginning of the week the election looked very

Theresa May's unprecedented manifesto U-turn on

the social care was dominating the headlines

and Labour was sensing an

It might appear unseemly, callous even, to

ask what impact the dreadful events in Manchester will have on a general

But it is undeniable the campaign was interrupted.

Re-focused on new themes, security, on

It is also undeniable that how we see our party leaders is

partly informed by how they respond to profound events.

Restarting campaigning today, Jeremy Corbyn gave his

assessment of the lessons of the Manchester attack.

He said Labour would reverse police cuts.

He also outlined what he saw as some of the

Many experts, including professionals in our

intelligence and security services, have pointed out the connections

between wars that we've been involved in all supported and fought

in in other countries, such as Libya, and terrorism here at home.

That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our

And informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an

essential part of an effective response that will protect the

At the end of his speech, Mr Corbyn declined to

And then made a dash for the back door.

However, later, he faced a grilling on the

They're targeting young girls at a pop concert because

They said they hate secular, liberal societies.

I agree they hate those liberal values, they

hate the idea of women being able to enjoy

themselves, and all the

That was the whole point of my speech this morning.

We've got to defend our liberal values.

What was the foreign policy of Sweden that resulted

The foreign policy issue has to be for all of us.

What is happening in a number of countries,

Meanwhile the Prime Minister was in Sicily at the G-7

summit, working, she said, without international partners to fight

At the same time Jeremy Corbyn has said that terror attacks

And he's chosen to do that just a few

days after one of the worst terrorist atrocities we have

I want to make one thing very clear, to Jeremy Corbyn and to you, and it

is that there can never, ever be an excuse for terrorism.

But what impact, if any, is this having on

A YouGov poll immediately after Theresa May called the

election in April had the Tories sitting on a 24 point lead.

The latest poll, conducted after the Manchester attack, has

So far based on the evidence we've seen, it

doesn't seem as though it has yet had a big impact.

Certainly anything that moves the conversation in the

direction of terrorism, national security, perhaps defence, will

benefit conservatives because from polling

before Manchester it was

clear they had quite a big lead in that area.

There doesn't seem to be an impact from that yet. The big impact seems

to be more from the social care, the impact it's had an Conservatives.

There's no guarantee something like this, a big national security

emergency, helps the incoming government. In Spain it had the

opposite effect, though there were specific issues around how the

government had handled it. It cuts both ways. The opposition as well,

if Labour is seen too quickly to be trying to pile in and attack the

government, that could rebound on to Labour. There is now another

interruption in the campaign for the bank holiday weekend. By the time

the population goes back to work on Tuesday will politics still be

dominated by security and terrorism issues or will it be something else?

Sir David Butler is to psephology what Shakespeare is to dramaturgy,

a veteran who has seen elections come and go since the 1950s.

Today he told me this movement of opinion in the polls was a bigger

one than had occurred in any previous election.

Over drinks this afternoon, we discussed the latest polls,

the effect of the Manchester bombing and whether we could be

dealing with a shy Tory or a shy Labour phenomenon,

You, David Butler, are a psephologist.

I'm afraid it's a silly academic joke

which somebody else perpetrated and I put in print about eight years

Now it hangs like an albatross around my neck.

David, how do you see this election campaign in terms

of the many that you have been through?

Well, it's very different from any one before.

I'm rather glad that I'm not writing about it as I

have written about virtually every

This time, what happened in Manchester transforms

things, and it seems to be having an

The election came unexpectedly, but when

it came it looked like a very expedient thing done by the

Conservatives, looking to a large

They may still get a large majority, but it doesn't look likely

to be nearly as big as they had expected.

Do you think that the events in Manchester will have an

They seem already to have done in the

opinion polls to have made a difference to expectations.

And they may make a bigger difference, but

The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a bigger

So you have never seen this big a swing, if you like,

from one party to another during a

There have been movements and late swings that have

helped the Conservatives on a couple

Is your sense that the change of policy or the policy on

dementia tax has really upset people?

I have not been very cautious in the past about making

predictions, but I am far more cautious now than ever before.

It obviously looks like an Conservative

victory because they are still ahead

in the polls and they would win if

So the Conservatives need not despair.

But the Labour Party can obviously feel much happier now than

-- how do you turn is turn generally?

Well, there haven't been major U-turns.

The U-turn last week was a bigger U-turn

than I can recall at any election

Does it feel to you that we have gone back to a two party

Well, to a large extent, we can't say that because of

And Northern Ireland is quite outside the scene.

We can only talk about England and Wales.

Past elections have had relatively

It is interesting how in past elections, swing has

When you have got ten seats in, you can

predict the final result without

great inaccuracy in all the elections I have been doing.

So in England and Wales, then, the

swingometer is very much alive and

And if there a moment or is there a seat

that you will be looking out for in

I think we will know the result by midnight.

If there are a dozen seats declared

between 10.50, when the first seat

got out last time, and midnight, if

we have a dozen seats then, we will

have a good idea of what is happening.

And whether the things the polls suggesting are happening

I hope you're wrong, because we have a long night of work

I shall be happy to sit up all night watching

If Jeremy Corbyn wins this election, what will

be the magnitude of the challenge that he has overcome?

It would be overwhelming in terms of both the

swing in votes he has achieved, but also,

of course, the programme and

It would be enormous and would have great repercussions in the market

This is a very key election, and the alternative outcomes,

Conservative victory and Labour victory, are more

extremely different than at any election in my lifetime.

You've recently joined Twitter, where

everything has to be said in 140 characters.

If you had to sum up your election prediction in 140

characters or thereabouts, what would it be?

Oh, I think it would be "The Conservatives will win, but by

nothing like the margin they were expecting

Sir David, thank you very much indeed.

So on June 9th, will we look back and think this was the week

Or will this have been a momentary blip -

albeit it in tragic circumstances - that actually did little to shift

Paul Mason is a Guardian columnist and a Labour supporter.

Iain Dale is a conservative broadcaster and the managing

And down the line from Salford, Jennifer Williams is

the Political Editor of the Manchester Evening News.

It's great to have you all. Jennifer, I'll start with you

because this is a completely different campaign, at least it

feels that, to the one we were expecting. Campaigning has come back

with a vengeance. Does it feel like Manchester is ready for that to

resume at this sort of level? I think in Manchester and not sure

people are focusing on the general election campaign now. As the

campaign kicks back on, I suppose it started again with Ukip yesterday...

It's easy to think we're back into the swing. In Manchester it's been

four days. People aren't yet in a position to really process the

information. We're still a city in shock. I can only really speak from

a personal perspective... It feels very soon-to-be back to

electioneering again. For a personal perspective, somebody who lives in

Manchester, it does feel too soon. I spoke to a few senior Labour people

around here before I came out this evening and their opinion on Jeremy

Corbyn's timing and the content of his speech varied from poorer too

crass to live it was one of the messages I got back. Particularly on

the timing, though a lot of people were disagreeing on the content and

analysis. I feel it's very soon-to-be back into it. We in

politics and journalism have a tendency to think of this attack,

this warlike murderous attack on our country, was an interruption to

something more important, which is the election. Not just in

Manchester, all over the country people feel the important thing is

the war we're in. The war? We're in a war with IS and people realise we

are against an enemy that wants to kill little girls. Every family,

everybody sitting around the television and the table is thinking

about that. In that sense it is very unfortunate we've had to restart the

election. Yet, you know, you cannot avoid the national security

implications. Labour in no way can sit there and avoid... When

Conservative Central office treats tonight that Jeremy Corbyn is on the

side of our enemies. If he's on the side of our enemies he shouldn't be

in Parliament. He's not on the side of our enemies. I think the weird

thing is, what we all need to do is avoid jumping the shark. We need to

avoid raising this in this acute moment of national mourning into a

position where everybody turns around and starts going... It's you,

you're the one. Did you take that on board? Do you think it's the

conservatives who politicised something that was the campaign?

I could have said virtually all but Paul said. It does seem odd that in

an election, it is a bare knuckle fight. It ought to be a bare knuckle

fight about the future of our country and democracy. All parties

will now have to be Kebble about the tone and set. Some people say the

Conservatives have never bored in their attack on Jeremy Corbyn today.

Do you think so, that the Conservatives went overboard? It is

unfortunate that he said what he said about foreign policy in his

speech. That could have waited, but Labour had to get on the front foot

because in this week, when there is a national emergency, the Prime

Minister gets all the airtime. It is natural that that happens. The

opposition always find it hard to get on the front foot. So Jeremy

Corbyn was right to try and get on the front foot. His advisers were

right about the speech, but they misjudged the tone of some of it.

Jennifer, I register what you said about it being too soon, but do you

think there is in his message something that will bring a lot of

people with him? Potentially, but at the moment it is too early to say.

Campaigning hasn't started in earnest, so no one has been out at

the doors yet. We don't know how people are feeling or how people

will respond. To come back to what I was saying about being days. Four

days ago, Jeremy Corbyn was standing on a stage with Amber Rudd in

Manchester and the whole point of it was that it was a nonpolitical

occasion where people were not grandstanding or making political

points. That was not the purpose of it. And that was received very well

by Manchester. It was politicians together, paying their respects,

showing that they cared and they understood the magnitude of this and

they were not using it as a platform. I think it is yet to be

seen how people will respond to political points being made a few

days later. I am interested to get a sense, and you will be able to shed

some light, Paul, on the kind of conversations going on in labour HQ

now. Are people saying to Jeremy Corbyn, you have got to start taking

the election back, or is there a difficulty? They know they are

underdogs from beginning to end. There are parts of Labour HQ that do

not have conversations with other parts of Labour HQ. According team

have always known they are underdogs. They have always had the

strategy to make people talk the kind of country you want to live in.

Do they still feel like underdogs with today's pulls? Yes, because

Labour's problem electorally is that all those votes are piled up in the

wrong places. You can be an 38-40, an amazing position that Ed Miliband

would kill for, but it could all be in Labour strongholds. They know

that. What they wanted at the beginning was furthest to be about

Brexit because of the unfortunate fact that it is not about Brexit.

Iain, are people wobbling now? There is a wobble going on, absolutely.

There are people who think that the last ten days have been a disaster

for the Conservatives. Not necessarily the last few days, but

certainly the U-turn. It was not a well thought out policy. Everybody

can see that. Believe it or not, there are parts of the Conservative

campaign headquarters that don't talk to other parts. So who is

getting the blame for that? Conservative candidate are blaming

Nick Timothy for that. In the end, the buck has to stop with Theresa

May, but there are a lot of unhappy people about how this manifesto was

drawn up some the policies in it. There is nothing eye-catching in it.

Jennifer, do you think people will look at this week of the election

and say this was when everything changed? Clearly, you are speaking

first and foremost as a Manchester citizen, but with your political

editor hat on, do you think this will be the week when the election

changed, or will it be sucked into the overall campaign and people will

revert to normal? I think it is going to change the narrative of it.

If at the start of the week, people were talking about the Dementor tax

and social care, at the end of the week we are talking about Isis and

insecurity -- people were talking about the dementia tax. There are

only two weeks to go. It is difficult to say. We all thought the

Jo Cox murder in the referendum was a game changer. I thought that was

it for Leave, because however it pans out, people will associate the

person that did this with Leave. It didn't work out like that. So it is

difficult to sit here now and say this is what will happen. I think

the Conservatives will make this a presidential campaign. They will try

and get Brexit back onto the agenda. That is what this election was

supposed to be about. David Davis was supposed to make a big speech

about that today. I assume he didn't because he didn't want to deflect

attention from Jeremy Corbyn. Paul, do you think these polls reflect

where Labour is now and how well they could do? I have always thought

it would be relatively easy for Labour to get to 35 with a radical

programme on national security and economics. Better than Ed Miliband?

That is why I am a called in support. Beyond that, it is a

question of building alliances in the centre. The striking thing about

the polls is the total squeeze of everybody else. Amazingly, this has

become about red versus blue. That is where we have this phenomenon

himself. Thank you all. In a week when all eyes have

been on domestic news, the extraordinary narrative

unfolding in America. Today, it emerged that

President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner is under scrutiny

by the FBI as part of its He's being investigated

because of meetings held in December with the Russian

ambassador amongst others. The twist comes as former Director

of the FBI, James Comey, is himself due to testify before

the Senate Intelligence Committee. He was fired earlier this month

by Donald Trump as he was trying to look into allegations

of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia

during the election. The president is facing claims

he tried to interfere Some are starting to

talk of impeachment. Our correspondent Paul Wood

has broken several key developments on this story,

and reports now on the state Russia, if you're listening,

I hope you're able to find The entire thing has

been a witchhunt, and What the hell is going

on with Trump and Russia? So far, there is precious

little evidence, The central allegation

against President Trump is that his campaign colluded

with Russia to hack leading The truth, the whole

truth and nothing but the truth, There are now five separate

congressional inquiries The former director

of the CIA spoke to one. It should be clear to everyone that

Russia brazenly interfered in our 2016 presidential election

process and that they undertook these activities despite our strong

protests and explicit warning That is the unified judgment

of all the US intelligence agencies. I first heard about Russia

interfering in the US election One of Donald Trump's Republican

opponents sent me to meet someone who had retired from the US

intelligence community. "You know", this former spy said

to me, "We've just had a recording from one of our allies that shows

the Russians trying to help Whether that recording or any

recording like it really exists is the subject of the many

investigations into what relationship the Trump campaign

have with the Kremlin. But it is the bedrock assumption

in these investigations that the Russians did interfere

in the election, and they did it The focus is now on the former

national security adviser Michael Flynn, the former campaign

manager Paul Manafort, Trump's friend Roger Stone

and Trump's son-in-law What did the President's

men actually do? This man saw many of

the top-secret transcripts of Trump's people talking

to the Russians. You had the top classified

clearances, and you saw many of the intercepts that are now

the subject of fierce speculation Was there any evidence of collusion

between the Trump campaign From the things I saw,

there is nothing like that, and nor would you expect

there to be. The Russians know we're listening

and others know we're listening. So if you're going to do

something terribly nefarious, That's a problem for Trump's

critics, There have been a string

of intelligence chiefs coming to committee hearings,

and they have seen no Would it not have emerged

by now if it was there? I have not seen a string of them

coming before the committees They've said that it's had no

effect on the election, but they didn't say

there was no collusion. That's why we're having

these investigations. That's why they have

a special prosecutor. Another key allegation is that

Russian criminals laundered money through Trump businesses,

and that led to a relationship About 13 years ago,

I was billions of dollars in debt. As Trump told viewers of his show

The Apprentice, he bounced back. His businesses had gone

bankrupt four times. Congressional investigators

are trying to find out They're trying to find out who owns

apartments in Trump buildings. Often, the real ownership is hidden

under layers of shell companies. The working assumption

is that the Russian mafia and the Russian state are often

the same thing. Jonathan Winer was one of the US

government's leading experts It would be a terrible thing

if someone who was president of the United States knowingly

profited off laundering It would be even worse if

the President of the United States' business profited off laundering

money for the Russian state. It is not the safety, stability,

security of the American people, it is the advancement

of the policies and goals of an adversary, and a serious

adversary over a long time. So if that happened, that's

something we need to know about, and the people involved need

to be held accountable. President Trump also faces claims

that Russian intelligence filmed him with prostitutes,

and so he is vulnerable What are you looking for in this

year's Miss Universe? Well, we have as good as I've ever

seen in terms of beauty. It was during the Miss Universe

pageant in Moscow that the blackmail Trump is alleged to have paid

prostitutes to urinate on a bed That incendiary claim was made

by a former MI6 spy, I was one of the first journalists

to get a look at his now famous The White House calls

Steele's dossier fake news. The President's supporters

say he's a germophobe The president himself said of course

he knew there'd be cameras There remains no proof

that the Kremlin does Still, even before the Steele

dossier was published, I heard from two different sources

that the Russians had "kompromat", It's possible that all

these separate sources to the Russian

intelligence services. It could be a warning -

"This is what we have on you". Or it could be what the Russians

call "provokazia", a provocation or lie designed to confuse people,

something to inoculate Mr Trump against all the other

allegations he faces. as if the Kremlin does

have a hold over him. Here he is with the Russian foreign

minister and ambassador. No, say his supporters,

this is the behaviour of a man The most deadly charge against Trump

concerns his actions as president. Did he tell the then FBI

director James Comey to kill James has become

more famous than me. Trump greets Comey Godfather-style,

with a kiss on the cheek... ...Just a few months

before he sacked him. The former FBI director has

apparently claimed this was done because he refused to pledge

loyalty to the president. Trump has reportedly

called Comey a "nut job". is that he has a flair

for the dramatic, and he has in previous open testimonies

in Congress spun dramatic stories So I can certainly see that

what is coming is a dramatic moment where Comey lays out his side

of events and his interactions with Trump, and we'll see

where the investigations Obstruction of justice was the first

charge in the articles

of impeachment it's the cover-up that always gets

you, not the original crime. People are saying things privately

that they are not saying publicly. There's a lot of discussion

about impeachment. Is that just the Democrats,

or is this both sides? Of course there's

conversations going on. You don't know exactly who's

in those conversations. I've heard around town, I've no idea

if there's any truth in it, that there's talk about a grand deal

where Pence becomes president but there's a conversation

with the Democrats about what would be on the agenda

and if it had to come to this, everybody understands

that the country is in a constitutional crisis,

which we are. The President's defenders say

that is pure fantasy. Look at the way I've

been treated lately. To official Washington,

it's very suspicious, but official Washington hasn't liked

Donald Trump He's an honest man, and I think

basically, he's going to be discovered

to be an honest man. He'll probably be the most

investigated president since Richard Nixon,

but don't look at a guy Look at him over the long run

and over the long run, Donald Trump will, I think,

transcend his enemies. Trump's supporters say

he is the victim of a conspiracy within the intelligence agencies

to overturn the election result. His enemies believe

he was long ago bought No evidence of that has yet emerged,

but it would be a bitter irony for the president if he were brought

down not by something in his past, but by his efforts

to fight the accusations. Let's bring you back to this

election. In this election, how do we know

what really matters to people? The old certainties are gone -

tribal loyalties shattered, People are less likely to vote

blindly for the party of their parents -

and factors such as age, geography, and education are emerging

as the new dividing lines. Over the course of the

campaign Katie Razzall is looking at some of

these divisions in 21st For tonight's report she travelled

from East Renfrewshire to Glasgow to examine where the faultlines lie

on the issue of We're going to meet a mare who gave

birth a couple of days ago. Conservative used to be

a dirty word in Scotland. That is the sweetest

thing I've ever seen. The party was branded one of horse

riding, game shooting Bozena Bienkowska isn't that,

though this East Renfrewshire farmer does ride her much-loved horses

and has voted Tory in the past. She wants Scotland to

stay part of the UK. Does this issue divide

people, divide families? Within the family,

we feel deeply divided. During the last referendum,

I knew people that sold their houses and moved back to England

because of the hostility. We all have different opinions,

but my brother Chris seems to be most passionate about it,

so if you'd like to speak to him, A recent YouGov poll

found that this election, nine out of ten voters who don't

want independence will opt Three quarters of Yes

voters will vote SNP, I have no interest in independence

and I'm glad they voted against it. Most of us didn't want

to speak up in case... Well, because you'd

get a tirade of abuse. At the time we lost the vote,

I was quite happy to leave it five, ten years until the Scottish

population moved again There was no immediate

rush to have one. But the thing of being taken out

of the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people,

who voted 62% for staying in the EU, meant that the independence vote

should happen again. I didn't want Brexit and I certainly

don't want a second referendum. We've already voted

to stay and that's it. Because the politicians are very

loud and it is the ticket they've been running with,

they can't put it down because what's the point of the SNP

if they don't have independence? Which political party do you believe

will safeguard the union? I would hate to

separate from the UK. I'm quite happy to be part of

the British Isles, just not the UK. Well, you haven't really got

the choice unless you got East Renfrewshire is a Tory

and Labour target seat. It was Labour's from 1997

and is the SNP's now. It's only three years

since the independence referendum, with another one mooted

and creating tensions. On the nationalist side,

the No vote brought about the overwhelming SNP triumphs

at the last general election. This time round, there's

a sense that unionists may want to send a message,

and that could benefit the party that spent decades in the Scottish

political wilderness. In the polling done since the last

general election, though the SNP is still way in front,

its trajectory has been downwards. The Conservatives, from a low base,

have seen a steady rise. The party's nearly doubled its vote

share, mainly at the expense The problem is, for me

and a lot of people like me, if you're not going to vote SNP,

you're not terribly sure Gordon Canning is a member of East

Renfrewshire's Mearns Golf Academy. But efforts by the Scottish

Conservatives to ensure that they're seen as the party most in favour

of the union appear Could you ever bring

yourself to vote for them? Is that a difficult thing

to say in Scotland? Yeah, it's a difficult thing

for someone who's never voted Tory before to say that they may vote

Tory. Because I want the SNP to be aware

that there are a large number of people in Scotland who do not

want another Using Brexit as an excuse

for another independence The Conservatives haven't

necessarily been the most Because Labour is no longer

a credible opposition. Which means people are more willing

to vote Conservative? And have you ever voted

Conservative before? And how do you usually vote,

if you don't mind me asking? And will you vote

for them this time? Because I want to vote tactically

to try and keep the SNP out. 12 miles away, Glasgow

is nationalist heartland. The city voted Yes in 2014,

and all its seats went SNP But at this month's local elections,

even here, the Conservatives I find it strange because I don't

know if you've noticed in the last week, but in the East End of Glasgow

they elected Tory councillors, I have to be honest with you,

it's quite impressive that the place that has the lowest life expectancy

in Western Europe decided we needed Chrissy Ross comperes comedy

night at the Yesbar, renamed in the run-up

to the elect independence vote. Although we have a very inclusive

culture in Scotland, we have a very divided one

times as well. I wouldn't say it's

along sectarian lines. It's very much pro and anti union

lines that it's drawn across. Do you feel that flag-waving

nationalism on both sides is infusing the debate more

and more here? It's definitely made it

become more entrenched. People are now taking

a position they feel they can't come back from,

which I don't feel There also seems to be a problem

where people see themselves I vote SNP because I see myself

as European and I'm a little bit dismayed at the fact that we're

leaving the EU. At Glasgow's Grand Ole Opry, plenty

are in step with the SNP's vision. But from those who dance

to the union tune, a sense, perhaps, of why, even in the city Labour

dominated for so long, I'm from an area of Glasgow,

Shettleston, which voted It's never been Conservative

in my lifetime as far as I know. So things have changed

locally recently. You've voted Labour

and Lib Dem in the past. Could you ever vote

Conservative, do you think? As I said, I haven't made up my mind

how I'm going to vote. But it's the union you'll

be thinking about? I would like to vote Labour,

because I predominantly have. I've got a nagging doubt

about Jeremy Corbyn and some of his allies in the back

of my mind. The divisions in Scotland may

still be focused around the question of independence,

but the SNP's dominance this election still appears unassailable

across much of the country. The latest YouGov poll

puts the party on 42%. But unless Labour can

turn its fortunes around, unlike in 2015, the nationalists'

main challenger this time Katie Razzall with that undivided

Britain. But before we go, NASA's Juno probe

has just delivered these dramatic images of Jupiter's south pole,

complete with earth sized cyclones and its own northern

lights style aurora. Hello there, the heat we seen here

in the UK in the last couple of days will come and eight in a country

break. Some thunderstorms, potentially torrential