26/05/2017 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis.

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Was this the week that changed the election?


We talk to the man that invented the swingometer,


David Butler, who tells me he's never seen anything like it.


Anything may happen. The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a


bigger movement that has occurred in any previous election.


Donald Trump's time abroad comes to a close.


But just what is awaiting him at home with the Russia Investigation?


It would be a terrible thing if someone who was president of the


United States knowingly profited of laundering money for criminals. It


would be even worse if the President of the United States' business


profited of laundering money for the Russian state.


And Divided Britain - Katie Razzall looks


at the faultlines on the question of Scottish independence.


I would hate to separate from the UK. I would love, I'm quite happy to


be part of the British Isles, just not the UK. You haven't really got


the choice I you've got a really big hammer drill.


Remember those heady days when this election seemed boring?


When we were sick of the stage managed, unwavering


Many feared the electoral outcome had already been written


on something more permanent than the fated EdStone.


A week that began with a monumental Uturn, soon forgotten in the torment


And from its wake, a campaign that emerged refocussed -on national


A poll today showed Labour slashing the Conservative


We'll be speaking to David Butler in a moment -


the psephologist who has seen more from the frontline of electoral


So is this a question of voters genuinely changing their minds?


Or of a nation too shattered to know what it thinks right now.


At the beginning of the week the election looked very


Theresa May's unprecedented manifesto U-turn on


the social care was dominating the headlines


and Labour was sensing an


It might appear unseemly, callous even, to


ask what impact the dreadful events in Manchester will have on a general


But it is undeniable the campaign was interrupted.


Re-focused on new themes, security, on


It is also undeniable that how we see our party leaders is


partly informed by how they respond to profound events.


Restarting campaigning today, Jeremy Corbyn gave his


assessment of the lessons of the Manchester attack.


He said Labour would reverse police cuts.


He also outlined what he saw as some of the


Many experts, including professionals in our


intelligence and security services, have pointed out the connections


between wars that we've been involved in all supported and fought


in in other countries, such as Libya, and terrorism here at home.


That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our


And informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an


essential part of an effective response that will protect the


At the end of his speech, Mr Corbyn declined to


And then made a dash for the back door.


However, later, he faced a grilling on the


They're targeting young girls at a pop concert because


They said they hate secular, liberal societies.


I agree they hate those liberal values, they


hate the idea of women being able to enjoy


themselves, and all the


That was the whole point of my speech this morning.


We've got to defend our liberal values.


What was the foreign policy of Sweden that resulted


The foreign policy issue has to be for all of us.


What is happening in a number of countries,


Meanwhile the Prime Minister was in Sicily at the G-7


summit, working, she said, without international partners to fight


At the same time Jeremy Corbyn has said that terror attacks


And he's chosen to do that just a few


days after one of the worst terrorist atrocities we have


I want to make one thing very clear, to Jeremy Corbyn and to you, and it


is that there can never, ever be an excuse for terrorism.


But what impact, if any, is this having on


A YouGov poll immediately after Theresa May called the


election in April had the Tories sitting on a 24 point lead.


The latest poll, conducted after the Manchester attack, has


So far based on the evidence we've seen, it


doesn't seem as though it has yet had a big impact.


Certainly anything that moves the conversation in the


direction of terrorism, national security, perhaps defence, will


benefit conservatives because from polling


before Manchester it was


clear they had quite a big lead in that area.


There doesn't seem to be an impact from that yet. The big impact seems


to be more from the social care, the impact it's had an Conservatives.


There's no guarantee something like this, a big national security


emergency, helps the incoming government. In Spain it had the


opposite effect, though there were specific issues around how the


government had handled it. It cuts both ways. The opposition as well,


if Labour is seen too quickly to be trying to pile in and attack the


government, that could rebound on to Labour. There is now another


interruption in the campaign for the bank holiday weekend. By the time


the population goes back to work on Tuesday will politics still be


dominated by security and terrorism issues or will it be something else?


Sir David Butler is to psephology what Shakespeare is to dramaturgy,


a veteran who has seen elections come and go since the 1950s.


Today he told me this movement of opinion in the polls was a bigger


one than had occurred in any previous election.


Over drinks this afternoon, we discussed the latest polls,


the effect of the Manchester bombing and whether we could be


dealing with a shy Tory or a shy Labour phenomenon,


You, David Butler, are a psephologist.


I'm afraid it's a silly academic joke


which somebody else perpetrated and I put in print about eight years


Now it hangs like an albatross around my neck.


David, how do you see this election campaign in terms


of the many that you have been through?


Well, it's very different from any one before.


I'm rather glad that I'm not writing about it as I


have written about virtually every


This time, what happened in Manchester transforms


things, and it seems to be having an


The election came unexpectedly, but when


it came it looked like a very expedient thing done by the


Conservatives, looking to a large


They may still get a large majority, but it doesn't look likely


to be nearly as big as they had expected.


Do you think that the events in Manchester will have an


They seem already to have done in the


opinion polls to have made a difference to expectations.


And they may make a bigger difference, but


The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a bigger


So you have never seen this big a swing, if you like,


from one party to another during a


There have been movements and late swings that have


helped the Conservatives on a couple


Is your sense that the change of policy or the policy on


dementia tax has really upset people?


I have not been very cautious in the past about making


predictions, but I am far more cautious now than ever before.


It obviously looks like an Conservative


victory because they are still ahead


in the polls and they would win if


So the Conservatives need not despair.


But the Labour Party can obviously feel much happier now than


-- how do you turn is turn generally?


Well, there haven't been major U-turns.


The U-turn last week was a bigger U-turn


than I can recall at any election


Does it feel to you that we have gone back to a two party


Well, to a large extent, we can't say that because of


And Northern Ireland is quite outside the scene.


We can only talk about England and Wales.


Past elections have had relatively


It is interesting how in past elections, swing has


When you have got ten seats in, you can


predict the final result without


great inaccuracy in all the elections I have been doing.


So in England and Wales, then, the


swingometer is very much alive and


And if there a moment or is there a seat


that you will be looking out for in


I think we will know the result by midnight.


If there are a dozen seats declared


between 10.50, when the first seat


got out last time, and midnight, if


we have a dozen seats then, we will


have a good idea of what is happening.


And whether the things the polls suggesting are happening


I hope you're wrong, because we have a long night of work


I shall be happy to sit up all night watching


If Jeremy Corbyn wins this election, what will


be the magnitude of the challenge that he has overcome?


It would be overwhelming in terms of both the


swing in votes he has achieved, but also,


of course, the programme and


It would be enormous and would have great repercussions in the market


This is a very key election, and the alternative outcomes,


Conservative victory and Labour victory, are more


extremely different than at any election in my lifetime.


You've recently joined Twitter, where


everything has to be said in 140 characters.


If you had to sum up your election prediction in 140


characters or thereabouts, what would it be?


Oh, I think it would be "The Conservatives will win, but by


nothing like the margin they were expecting


Sir David, thank you very much indeed.


So on June 9th, will we look back and think this was the week


Or will this have been a momentary blip -


albeit it in tragic circumstances - that actually did little to shift


Paul Mason is a Guardian columnist and a Labour supporter.


Iain Dale is a conservative broadcaster and the managing


And down the line from Salford, Jennifer Williams is


the Political Editor of the Manchester Evening News.


It's great to have you all. Jennifer, I'll start with you


because this is a completely different campaign, at least it


feels that, to the one we were expecting. Campaigning has come back


with a vengeance. Does it feel like Manchester is ready for that to


resume at this sort of level? I think in Manchester and not sure


people are focusing on the general election campaign now. As the


campaign kicks back on, I suppose it started again with Ukip yesterday...


It's easy to think we're back into the swing. In Manchester it's been


four days. People aren't yet in a position to really process the


information. We're still a city in shock. I can only really speak from


a personal perspective... It feels very soon-to-be back to


electioneering again. For a personal perspective, somebody who lives in


Manchester, it does feel too soon. I spoke to a few senior Labour people


around here before I came out this evening and their opinion on Jeremy


Corbyn's timing and the content of his speech varied from poorer too


crass to live it was one of the messages I got back. Particularly on


the timing, though a lot of people were disagreeing on the content and


analysis. I feel it's very soon-to-be back into it. We in


politics and journalism have a tendency to think of this attack,


this warlike murderous attack on our country, was an interruption to


something more important, which is the election. Not just in


Manchester, all over the country people feel the important thing is


the war we're in. The war? We're in a war with IS and people realise we


are against an enemy that wants to kill little girls. Every family,


everybody sitting around the television and the table is thinking


about that. In that sense it is very unfortunate we've had to restart the


election. Yet, you know, you cannot avoid the national security


implications. Labour in no way can sit there and avoid... When


Conservative Central office treats tonight that Jeremy Corbyn is on the


side of our enemies. If he's on the side of our enemies he shouldn't be


in Parliament. He's not on the side of our enemies. I think the weird


thing is, what we all need to do is avoid jumping the shark. We need to


avoid raising this in this acute moment of national mourning into a


position where everybody turns around and starts going... It's you,


you're the one. Did you take that on board? Do you think it's the


conservatives who politicised something that was the campaign?


I could have said virtually all but Paul said. It does seem odd that in


an election, it is a bare knuckle fight. It ought to be a bare knuckle


fight about the future of our country and democracy. All parties


will now have to be Kebble about the tone and set. Some people say the


Conservatives have never bored in their attack on Jeremy Corbyn today.


Do you think so, that the Conservatives went overboard? It is


unfortunate that he said what he said about foreign policy in his


speech. That could have waited, but Labour had to get on the front foot


because in this week, when there is a national emergency, the Prime


Minister gets all the airtime. It is natural that that happens. The


opposition always find it hard to get on the front foot. So Jeremy


Corbyn was right to try and get on the front foot. His advisers were


right about the speech, but they misjudged the tone of some of it.


Jennifer, I register what you said about it being too soon, but do you


think there is in his message something that will bring a lot of


people with him? Potentially, but at the moment it is too early to say.


Campaigning hasn't started in earnest, so no one has been out at


the doors yet. We don't know how people are feeling or how people


will respond. To come back to what I was saying about being days. Four


days ago, Jeremy Corbyn was standing on a stage with Amber Rudd in


Manchester and the whole point of it was that it was a nonpolitical


occasion where people were not grandstanding or making political


points. That was not the purpose of it. And that was received very well


by Manchester. It was politicians together, paying their respects,


showing that they cared and they understood the magnitude of this and


they were not using it as a platform. I think it is yet to be


seen how people will respond to political points being made a few


days later. I am interested to get a sense, and you will be able to shed


some light, Paul, on the kind of conversations going on in labour HQ


now. Are people saying to Jeremy Corbyn, you have got to start taking


the election back, or is there a difficulty? They know they are


underdogs from beginning to end. There are parts of Labour HQ that do


not have conversations with other parts of Labour HQ. According team


have always known they are underdogs. They have always had the


strategy to make people talk the kind of country you want to live in.


Do they still feel like underdogs with today's pulls? Yes, because


Labour's problem electorally is that all those votes are piled up in the


wrong places. You can be an 38-40, an amazing position that Ed Miliband


would kill for, but it could all be in Labour strongholds. They know


that. What they wanted at the beginning was furthest to be about


Brexit because of the unfortunate fact that it is not about Brexit.


Iain, are people wobbling now? There is a wobble going on, absolutely.


There are people who think that the last ten days have been a disaster


for the Conservatives. Not necessarily the last few days, but


certainly the U-turn. It was not a well thought out policy. Everybody


can see that. Believe it or not, there are parts of the Conservative


campaign headquarters that don't talk to other parts. So who is


getting the blame for that? Conservative candidate are blaming


Nick Timothy for that. In the end, the buck has to stop with Theresa


May, but there are a lot of unhappy people about how this manifesto was


drawn up some the policies in it. There is nothing eye-catching in it.


Jennifer, do you think people will look at this week of the election


and say this was when everything changed? Clearly, you are speaking


first and foremost as a Manchester citizen, but with your political


editor hat on, do you think this will be the week when the election


changed, or will it be sucked into the overall campaign and people will


revert to normal? I think it is going to change the narrative of it.


If at the start of the week, people were talking about the Dementor tax


and social care, at the end of the week we are talking about Isis and


insecurity -- people were talking about the dementia tax. There are


only two weeks to go. It is difficult to say. We all thought the


Jo Cox murder in the referendum was a game changer. I thought that was


it for Leave, because however it pans out, people will associate the


person that did this with Leave. It didn't work out like that. So it is


difficult to sit here now and say this is what will happen. I think


the Conservatives will make this a presidential campaign. They will try


and get Brexit back onto the agenda. That is what this election was


supposed to be about. David Davis was supposed to make a big speech


about that today. I assume he didn't because he didn't want to deflect


attention from Jeremy Corbyn. Paul, do you think these polls reflect


where Labour is now and how well they could do? I have always thought


it would be relatively easy for Labour to get to 35 with a radical


programme on national security and economics. Better than Ed Miliband?


That is why I am a called in support. Beyond that, it is a


question of building alliances in the centre. The striking thing about


the polls is the total squeeze of everybody else. Amazingly, this has


become about red versus blue. That is where we have this phenomenon


himself. Thank you all. In a week when all eyes have


been on domestic news, the extraordinary narrative


unfolding in America. Today, it emerged that


President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner is under scrutiny


by the FBI as part of its He's being investigated


because of meetings held in December with the Russian


ambassador amongst others. The twist comes as former Director


of the FBI, James Comey, is himself due to testify before


the Senate Intelligence Committee. He was fired earlier this month


by Donald Trump as he was trying to look into allegations


of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia


during the election. The president is facing claims


he tried to interfere Some are starting to


talk of impeachment. Our correspondent Paul Wood


has broken several key developments on this story,


and reports now on the state Russia, if you're listening,


I hope you're able to find The entire thing has


been a witchhunt, and What the hell is going


on with Trump and Russia? So far, there is precious


little evidence, The central allegation


against President Trump is that his campaign colluded


with Russia to hack leading The truth, the whole


truth and nothing but the truth, There are now five separate


congressional inquiries The former director


of the CIA spoke to one. It should be clear to everyone that


Russia brazenly interfered in our 2016 presidential election


process and that they undertook these activities despite our strong


protests and explicit warning That is the unified judgment


of all the US intelligence agencies. I first heard about Russia


interfering in the US election One of Donald Trump's Republican


opponents sent me to meet someone who had retired from the US


intelligence community. "You know", this former spy said


to me, "We've just had a recording from one of our allies that shows


the Russians trying to help Whether that recording or any


recording like it really exists is the subject of the many


investigations into what relationship the Trump campaign


have with the Kremlin. But it is the bedrock assumption


in these investigations that the Russians did interfere


in the election, and they did it The focus is now on the former


national security adviser Michael Flynn, the former campaign


manager Paul Manafort, Trump's friend Roger Stone


and Trump's son-in-law What did the President's


men actually do? This man saw many of


the top-secret transcripts of Trump's people talking


to the Russians. You had the top classified


clearances, and you saw many of the intercepts that are now


the subject of fierce speculation Was there any evidence of collusion


between the Trump campaign From the things I saw,


there is nothing like that, and nor would you expect


there to be. The Russians know we're listening


and others know we're listening. So if you're going to do


something terribly nefarious, That's a problem for Trump's


critics, There have been a string


of intelligence chiefs coming to committee hearings,


and they have seen no Would it not have emerged


by now if it was there? I have not seen a string of them


coming before the committees They've said that it's had no


effect on the election, but they didn't say


there was no collusion. That's why we're having


these investigations. That's why they have


a special prosecutor. Another key allegation is that


Russian criminals laundered money through Trump businesses,


and that led to a relationship About 13 years ago,


I was billions of dollars in debt. As Trump told viewers of his show


The Apprentice, he bounced back. His businesses had gone


bankrupt four times. Congressional investigators


are trying to find out They're trying to find out who owns


apartments in Trump buildings. Often, the real ownership is hidden


under layers of shell companies. The working assumption


is that the Russian mafia and the Russian state are often


the same thing. Jonathan Winer was one of the US


government's leading experts It would be a terrible thing


if someone who was president of the United States knowingly


profited off laundering It would be even worse if


the President of the United States' business profited off laundering


money for the Russian state. It is not the safety, stability,


security of the American people, it is the advancement


of the policies and goals of an adversary, and a serious


adversary over a long time. So if that happened, that's


something we need to know about, and the people involved need


to be held accountable. President Trump also faces claims


that Russian intelligence filmed him with prostitutes,


and so he is vulnerable What are you looking for in this


year's Miss Universe? Well, we have as good as I've ever


seen in terms of beauty. It was during the Miss Universe


pageant in Moscow that the blackmail Trump is alleged to have paid


prostitutes to urinate on a bed That incendiary claim was made


by a former MI6 spy, I was one of the first journalists


to get a look at his now famous The White House calls


Steele's dossier fake news. The President's supporters


say he's a germophobe The president himself said of course


he knew there'd be cameras There remains no proof


that the Kremlin does Still, even before the Steele


dossier was published, I heard from two different sources


that the Russians had "kompromat", It's possible that all


these separate sources to the Russian


intelligence services. It could be a warning -


"This is what we have on you". Or it could be what the Russians


call "provokazia", a provocation or lie designed to confuse people,


something to inoculate Mr Trump against all the other


allegations he faces. as if the Kremlin does


have a hold over him. Here he is with the Russian foreign


minister and ambassador. No, say his supporters,


this is the behaviour of a man The most deadly charge against Trump


concerns his actions as president. Did he tell the then FBI


director James Comey to kill James has become


more famous than me. Trump greets Comey Godfather-style,


with a kiss on the cheek... ...Just a few months


before he sacked him. The former FBI director has


apparently claimed this was done because he refused to pledge


loyalty to the president. Trump has reportedly


called Comey a "nut job". is that he has a flair


for the dramatic, and he has in previous open testimonies


in Congress spun dramatic stories So I can certainly see that


what is coming is a dramatic moment where Comey lays out his side


of events and his interactions with Trump, and we'll see


where the investigations Obstruction of justice was the first


charge in the articles


of impeachment it's the cover-up that always gets


you, not the original crime. People are saying things privately


that they are not saying publicly. There's a lot of discussion


about impeachment. Is that just the Democrats,


or is this both sides? Of course there's


conversations going on. You don't know exactly who's


in those conversations. I've heard around town, I've no idea


if there's any truth in it, that there's talk about a grand deal


where Pence becomes president but there's a conversation


with the Democrats about what would be on the agenda


and if it had to come to this, everybody understands


that the country is in a constitutional crisis,


which we are. The President's defenders say


that is pure fantasy. Look at the way I've


been treated lately. To official Washington,


it's very suspicious, but official Washington hasn't liked


Donald Trump He's an honest man, and I think


basically, he's going to be discovered


to be an honest man. He'll probably be the most


investigated president since Richard Nixon,


but don't look at a guy Look at him over the long run


and over the long run, Donald Trump will, I think,


transcend his enemies. Trump's supporters say


he is the victim of a conspiracy within the intelligence agencies


to overturn the election result. His enemies believe


he was long ago bought No evidence of that has yet emerged,


but it would be a bitter irony for the president if he were brought


down not by something in his past, but by his efforts


to fight the accusations. Let's bring you back to this


election. In this election, how do we know


what really matters to people? The old certainties are gone -


tribal loyalties shattered, People are less likely to vote


blindly for the party of their parents -


and factors such as age, geography, and education are emerging


as the new dividing lines. Over the course of the


campaign Katie Razzall is looking at some of


these divisions in 21st For tonight's report she travelled


from East Renfrewshire to Glasgow to examine where the faultlines lie


on the issue of We're going to meet a mare who gave


birth a couple of days ago. Conservative used to be


a dirty word in Scotland. That is the sweetest


thing I've ever seen. The party was branded one of horse


riding, game shooting Bozena Bienkowska isn't that,


though this East Renfrewshire farmer does ride her much-loved horses


and has voted Tory in the past. She wants Scotland to


stay part of the UK. Does this issue divide


people, divide families? Within the family,


we feel deeply divided. During the last referendum,


I knew people that sold their houses and moved back to England


because of the hostility. We all have different opinions,


but my brother Chris seems to be most passionate about it,


so if you'd like to speak to him, A recent YouGov poll


found that this election, nine out of ten voters who don't


want independence will opt Three quarters of Yes


voters will vote SNP, I have no interest in independence


and I'm glad they voted against it. Most of us didn't want


to speak up in case... Well, because you'd


get a tirade of abuse. At the time we lost the vote,


I was quite happy to leave it five, ten years until the Scottish


population moved again There was no immediate


rush to have one. But the thing of being taken out


of the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people,


who voted 62% for staying in the EU, meant that the independence vote


should happen again. I didn't want Brexit and I certainly


don't want a second referendum. We've already voted


to stay and that's it. Because the politicians are very


loud and it is the ticket they've been running with,


they can't put it down because what's the point of the SNP


if they don't have independence? Which political party do you believe


will safeguard the union? I would hate to


separate from the UK. I'm quite happy to be part of


the British Isles, just not the UK. Well, you haven't really got


the choice unless you got East Renfrewshire is a Tory


and Labour target seat. It was Labour's from 1997


and is the SNP's now. It's only three years


since the independence referendum, with another one mooted


and creating tensions. On the nationalist side,


the No vote brought about the overwhelming SNP triumphs


at the last general election. This time round, there's


a sense that unionists may want to send a message,


and that could benefit the party that spent decades in the Scottish


political wilderness. In the polling done since the last


general election, though the SNP is still way in front,


its trajectory has been downwards. The Conservatives, from a low base,


have seen a steady rise. The party's nearly doubled its vote


share, mainly at the expense The problem is, for me


and a lot of people like me, if you're not going to vote SNP,


you're not terribly sure Gordon Canning is a member of East


Renfrewshire's Mearns Golf Academy. But efforts by the Scottish


Conservatives to ensure that they're seen as the party most in favour


of the union appear Could you ever bring


yourself to vote for them? Is that a difficult thing


to say in Scotland? Yeah, it's a difficult thing


for someone who's never voted Tory before to say that they may vote


Tory. Because I want the SNP to be aware


that there are a large number of people in Scotland who do not


want another Using Brexit as an excuse


for another independence The Conservatives haven't


necessarily been the most Because Labour is no longer


a credible opposition. Which means people are more willing


to vote Conservative? And have you ever voted


Conservative before? And how do you usually vote,


if you don't mind me asking? And will you vote


for them this time? Because I want to vote tactically


to try and keep the SNP out. 12 miles away, Glasgow


is nationalist heartland. The city voted Yes in 2014,


and all its seats went SNP But at this month's local elections,


even here, the Conservatives I find it strange because I don't


know if you've noticed in the last week, but in the East End of Glasgow


they elected Tory councillors, I have to be honest with you,


it's quite impressive that the place that has the lowest life expectancy


in Western Europe decided we needed Chrissy Ross comperes comedy


night at the Yesbar, renamed in the run-up


to the elect independence vote. Although we have a very inclusive


culture in Scotland, we have a very divided one


times as well. I wouldn't say it's


along sectarian lines. It's very much pro and anti union


lines that it's drawn across. Do you feel that flag-waving


nationalism on both sides is infusing the debate more


and more here? It's definitely made it


become more entrenched. People are now taking


a position they feel they can't come back from,


which I don't feel There also seems to be a problem


where people see themselves I vote SNP because I see myself


as European and I'm a little bit dismayed at the fact that we're


leaving the EU. At Glasgow's Grand Ole Opry, plenty


are in step with the SNP's vision. But from those who dance


to the union tune, a sense, perhaps, of why, even in the city Labour


dominated for so long, I'm from an area of Glasgow,


Shettleston, which voted It's never been Conservative


in my lifetime as far as I know. So things have changed


locally recently. You've voted Labour


and Lib Dem in the past. Could you ever vote


Conservative, do you think? As I said, I haven't made up my mind


how I'm going to vote. But it's the union you'll


be thinking about? I would like to vote Labour,


because I predominantly have. I've got a nagging doubt


about Jeremy Corbyn and some of his allies in the back


of my mind. The divisions in Scotland may


still be focused around the question of independence,


but the SNP's dominance this election still appears unassailable


across much of the country. The latest YouGov poll


puts the party on 42%. But unless Labour can


turn its fortunes around, unlike in 2015, the nationalists'


main challenger this time Katie Razzall with that undivided


Britain. But before we go, NASA's Juno probe


has just delivered these dramatic images of Jupiter's south pole,


complete with earth sized cyclones and its own northern


lights style aurora. Hello there, the heat we seen here


in the UK in the last couple of days will come and eight in a country


break. Some thunderstorms, potentially torrential


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