26/05/2017 Newsnight


26/05/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis.


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Transcript


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Was this the week that changed the election?

:00:00.:00:07.

We talk to the man that invented the swingometer,

:00:08.:00:12.

David Butler, who tells me he's never seen anything like it.

:00:13.:00:17.

Anything may happen. The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a

:00:18.:00:23.

bigger movement that has occurred in any previous election.

:00:24.:00:26.

Donald Trump's time abroad comes to a close.

:00:27.:00:31.

But just what is awaiting him at home with the Russia Investigation?

:00:32.:00:36.

It would be a terrible thing if someone who was president of the

:00:37.:00:43.

United States knowingly profited of laundering money for criminals. It

:00:44.:00:48.

would be even worse if the President of the United States' business

:00:49.:00:54.

profited of laundering money for the Russian state.

:00:55.:00:57.

And Divided Britain - Katie Razzall looks

:00:58.:00:59.

at the faultlines on the question of Scottish independence.

:01:00.:01:04.

I would hate to separate from the UK. I would love, I'm quite happy to

:01:05.:01:09.

be part of the British Isles, just not the UK. You haven't really got

:01:10.:01:14.

the choice I you've got a really big hammer drill.

:01:15.:01:22.

Remember those heady days when this election seemed boring?

:01:23.:01:27.

When we were sick of the stage managed, unwavering

:01:28.:01:28.

Many feared the electoral outcome had already been written

:01:29.:01:32.

on something more permanent than the fated EdStone.

:01:33.:01:35.

A week that began with a monumental Uturn, soon forgotten in the torment

:01:36.:01:42.

And from its wake, a campaign that emerged refocussed -on national

:01:43.:01:48.

A poll today showed Labour slashing the Conservative

:01:49.:01:53.

We'll be speaking to David Butler in a moment -

:01:54.:01:58.

the psephologist who has seen more from the frontline of electoral

:01:59.:02:01.

So is this a question of voters genuinely changing their minds?

:02:02.:02:09.

Or of a nation too shattered to know what it thinks right now.

:02:10.:02:13.

At the beginning of the week the election looked very

:02:14.:02:33.

Theresa May's unprecedented manifesto U-turn on

:02:34.:02:35.

the social care was dominating the headlines

:02:36.:02:37.

and Labour was sensing an

:02:38.:02:38.

It might appear unseemly, callous even, to

:02:39.:02:42.

ask what impact the dreadful events in Manchester will have on a general

:02:43.:02:45.

But it is undeniable the campaign was interrupted.

:02:46.:02:53.

Re-focused on new themes, security, on

:02:54.:03:02.

It is also undeniable that how we see our party leaders is

:03:03.:03:06.

partly informed by how they respond to profound events.

:03:07.:03:08.

Restarting campaigning today, Jeremy Corbyn gave his

:03:09.:03:20.

assessment of the lessons of the Manchester attack.

:03:21.:03:22.

He said Labour would reverse police cuts.

:03:23.:03:24.

He also outlined what he saw as some of the

:03:25.:03:26.

Many experts, including professionals in our

:03:27.:03:29.

intelligence and security services, have pointed out the connections

:03:30.:03:31.

between wars that we've been involved in all supported and fought

:03:32.:03:34.

in in other countries, such as Libya, and terrorism here at home.

:03:35.:03:44.

That assessment in no way reduces the guilt of those who attack our

:03:45.:03:47.

And informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an

:03:48.:03:50.

essential part of an effective response that will protect the

:03:51.:03:52.

At the end of his speech, Mr Corbyn declined to

:03:53.:04:04.

And then made a dash for the back door.

:04:05.:04:13.

However, later, he faced a grilling on the

:04:14.:04:15.

They're targeting young girls at a pop concert because

:04:16.:04:22.

They said they hate secular, liberal societies.

:04:23.:04:24.

I agree they hate those liberal values, they

:04:25.:04:27.

hate the idea of women being able to enjoy

:04:28.:04:29.

themselves, and all the

:04:30.:04:31.

That was the whole point of my speech this morning.

:04:32.:04:34.

We've got to defend our liberal values.

:04:35.:04:36.

What was the foreign policy of Sweden that resulted

:04:37.:04:40.

The foreign policy issue has to be for all of us.

:04:41.:04:50.

What is happening in a number of countries,

:04:51.:04:52.

Meanwhile the Prime Minister was in Sicily at the G-7

:04:53.:05:00.

summit, working, she said, without international partners to fight

:05:01.:05:02.

At the same time Jeremy Corbyn has said that terror attacks

:05:03.:05:06.

And he's chosen to do that just a few

:05:07.:05:09.

days after one of the worst terrorist atrocities we have

:05:10.:05:14.

I want to make one thing very clear, to Jeremy Corbyn and to you, and it

:05:15.:05:20.

is that there can never, ever be an excuse for terrorism.

:05:21.:05:22.

But what impact, if any, is this having on

:05:23.:05:24.

A YouGov poll immediately after Theresa May called the

:05:25.:05:36.

election in April had the Tories sitting on a 24 point lead.

:05:37.:05:38.

The latest poll, conducted after the Manchester attack, has

:05:39.:05:41.

So far based on the evidence we've seen, it

:05:42.:05:53.

doesn't seem as though it has yet had a big impact.

:05:54.:05:55.

Certainly anything that moves the conversation in the

:05:56.:05:57.

direction of terrorism, national security, perhaps defence, will

:05:58.:05:59.

benefit conservatives because from polling

:06:00.:06:00.

before Manchester it was

:06:01.:06:01.

clear they had quite a big lead in that area.

:06:02.:06:05.

There doesn't seem to be an impact from that yet. The big impact seems

:06:06.:06:11.

to be more from the social care, the impact it's had an Conservatives.

:06:12.:06:15.

There's no guarantee something like this, a big national security

:06:16.:06:20.

emergency, helps the incoming government. In Spain it had the

:06:21.:06:23.

opposite effect, though there were specific issues around how the

:06:24.:06:27.

government had handled it. It cuts both ways. The opposition as well,

:06:28.:06:32.

if Labour is seen too quickly to be trying to pile in and attack the

:06:33.:06:37.

government, that could rebound on to Labour. There is now another

:06:38.:06:42.

interruption in the campaign for the bank holiday weekend. By the time

:06:43.:06:46.

the population goes back to work on Tuesday will politics still be

:06:47.:06:49.

dominated by security and terrorism issues or will it be something else?

:06:50.:06:56.

Sir David Butler is to psephology what Shakespeare is to dramaturgy,

:06:57.:06:59.

a veteran who has seen elections come and go since the 1950s.

:07:00.:07:02.

Today he told me this movement of opinion in the polls was a bigger

:07:03.:07:05.

one than had occurred in any previous election.

:07:06.:07:07.

Over drinks this afternoon, we discussed the latest polls,

:07:08.:07:09.

the effect of the Manchester bombing and whether we could be

:07:10.:07:13.

dealing with a shy Tory or a shy Labour phenomenon,

:07:14.:07:16.

You, David Butler, are a psephologist.

:07:17.:07:28.

I'm afraid it's a silly academic joke

:07:29.:07:36.

which somebody else perpetrated and I put in print about eight years

:07:37.:07:39.

Now it hangs like an albatross around my neck.

:07:40.:07:46.

David, how do you see this election campaign in terms

:07:47.:07:48.

of the many that you have been through?

:07:49.:07:50.

Well, it's very different from any one before.

:07:51.:07:52.

I'm rather glad that I'm not writing about it as I

:07:53.:07:55.

have written about virtually every

:07:56.:07:56.

This time, what happened in Manchester transforms

:07:57.:07:59.

things, and it seems to be having an

:08:00.:08:01.

The election came unexpectedly, but when

:08:02.:08:11.

it came it looked like a very expedient thing done by the

:08:12.:08:14.

Conservatives, looking to a large

:08:15.:08:15.

They may still get a large majority, but it doesn't look likely

:08:16.:08:20.

to be nearly as big as they had expected.

:08:21.:08:24.

Do you think that the events in Manchester will have an

:08:25.:08:26.

They seem already to have done in the

:08:27.:08:39.

opinion polls to have made a difference to expectations.

:08:40.:08:41.

And they may make a bigger difference, but

:08:42.:08:43.

The movement of opinion recorded in the polls is a bigger

:08:44.:08:55.

So you have never seen this big a swing, if you like,

:08:56.:09:00.

from one party to another during a

:09:01.:09:02.

There have been movements and late swings that have

:09:03.:09:06.

helped the Conservatives on a couple

:09:07.:09:07.

Is your sense that the change of policy or the policy on

:09:08.:09:11.

dementia tax has really upset people?

:09:12.:09:14.

I have not been very cautious in the past about making

:09:15.:09:24.

predictions, but I am far more cautious now than ever before.

:09:25.:09:27.

It obviously looks like an Conservative

:09:28.:09:29.

victory because they are still ahead

:09:30.:09:31.

in the polls and they would win if

:09:32.:09:33.

So the Conservatives need not despair.

:09:34.:09:40.

But the Labour Party can obviously feel much happier now than

:09:41.:09:42.

-- how do you turn is turn generally?

:09:43.:10:01.

Well, there haven't been major U-turns.

:10:02.:10:03.

The U-turn last week was a bigger U-turn

:10:04.:10:05.

than I can recall at any election

:10:06.:10:06.

Does it feel to you that we have gone back to a two party

:10:07.:10:11.

Well, to a large extent, we can't say that because of

:10:12.:10:15.

And Northern Ireland is quite outside the scene.

:10:16.:10:17.

We can only talk about England and Wales.

:10:18.:10:20.

Past elections have had relatively

:10:21.:10:21.

It is interesting how in past elections, swing has

:10:22.:10:29.

When you have got ten seats in, you can

:10:30.:10:34.

predict the final result without

:10:35.:10:37.

great inaccuracy in all the elections I have been doing.

:10:38.:10:41.

So in England and Wales, then, the

:10:42.:10:43.

swingometer is very much alive and

:10:44.:10:44.

And if there a moment or is there a seat

:10:45.:10:52.

that you will be looking out for in

:10:53.:10:54.

I think we will know the result by midnight.

:10:55.:10:58.

If there are a dozen seats declared

:10:59.:11:00.

between 10.50, when the first seat

:11:01.:11:01.

got out last time, and midnight, if

:11:02.:11:03.

we have a dozen seats then, we will

:11:04.:11:05.

have a good idea of what is happening.

:11:06.:11:11.

And whether the things the polls suggesting are happening

:11:12.:11:13.

I hope you're wrong, because we have a long night of work

:11:14.:11:19.

I shall be happy to sit up all night watching

:11:20.:11:26.

If Jeremy Corbyn wins this election, what will

:11:27.:11:34.

be the magnitude of the challenge that he has overcome?

:11:35.:11:36.

It would be overwhelming in terms of both the

:11:37.:11:41.

swing in votes he has achieved, but also,

:11:42.:11:42.

of course, the programme and

:11:43.:11:44.

It would be enormous and would have great repercussions in the market

:11:45.:11:50.

This is a very key election, and the alternative outcomes,

:11:51.:12:03.

Conservative victory and Labour victory, are more

:12:04.:12:05.

extremely different than at any election in my lifetime.

:12:06.:12:09.

You've recently joined Twitter, where

:12:10.:12:10.

everything has to be said in 140 characters.

:12:11.:12:12.

If you had to sum up your election prediction in 140

:12:13.:12:17.

characters or thereabouts, what would it be?

:12:18.:12:26.

Oh, I think it would be "The Conservatives will win, but by

:12:27.:12:30.

nothing like the margin they were expecting

:12:31.:12:31.

Sir David, thank you very much indeed.

:12:32.:12:43.

So on June 9th, will we look back and think this was the week

:12:44.:12:49.

Or will this have been a momentary blip -

:12:50.:12:52.

albeit it in tragic circumstances - that actually did little to shift

:12:53.:12:55.

Paul Mason is a Guardian columnist and a Labour supporter.

:12:56.:12:59.

Iain Dale is a conservative broadcaster and the managing

:13:00.:13:01.

And down the line from Salford, Jennifer Williams is

:13:02.:13:05.

the Political Editor of the Manchester Evening News.

:13:06.:13:10.

It's great to have you all. Jennifer, I'll start with you

:13:11.:13:15.

because this is a completely different campaign, at least it

:13:16.:13:19.

feels that, to the one we were expecting. Campaigning has come back

:13:20.:13:24.

with a vengeance. Does it feel like Manchester is ready for that to

:13:25.:13:29.

resume at this sort of level? I think in Manchester and not sure

:13:30.:13:33.

people are focusing on the general election campaign now. As the

:13:34.:13:38.

campaign kicks back on, I suppose it started again with Ukip yesterday...

:13:39.:13:44.

It's easy to think we're back into the swing. In Manchester it's been

:13:45.:13:50.

four days. People aren't yet in a position to really process the

:13:51.:13:54.

information. We're still a city in shock. I can only really speak from

:13:55.:14:01.

a personal perspective... It feels very soon-to-be back to

:14:02.:14:07.

electioneering again. For a personal perspective, somebody who lives in

:14:08.:14:11.

Manchester, it does feel too soon. I spoke to a few senior Labour people

:14:12.:14:15.

around here before I came out this evening and their opinion on Jeremy

:14:16.:14:20.

Corbyn's timing and the content of his speech varied from poorer too

:14:21.:14:24.

crass to live it was one of the messages I got back. Particularly on

:14:25.:14:28.

the timing, though a lot of people were disagreeing on the content and

:14:29.:14:35.

analysis. I feel it's very soon-to-be back into it. We in

:14:36.:14:38.

politics and journalism have a tendency to think of this attack,

:14:39.:14:45.

this warlike murderous attack on our country, was an interruption to

:14:46.:14:49.

something more important, which is the election. Not just in

:14:50.:14:52.

Manchester, all over the country people feel the important thing is

:14:53.:14:59.

the war we're in. The war? We're in a war with IS and people realise we

:15:00.:15:02.

are against an enemy that wants to kill little girls. Every family,

:15:03.:15:05.

everybody sitting around the television and the table is thinking

:15:06.:15:11.

about that. In that sense it is very unfortunate we've had to restart the

:15:12.:15:18.

election. Yet, you know, you cannot avoid the national security

:15:19.:15:22.

implications. Labour in no way can sit there and avoid... When

:15:23.:15:25.

Conservative Central office treats tonight that Jeremy Corbyn is on the

:15:26.:15:28.

side of our enemies. If he's on the side of our enemies he shouldn't be

:15:29.:15:33.

in Parliament. He's not on the side of our enemies. I think the weird

:15:34.:15:37.

thing is, what we all need to do is avoid jumping the shark. We need to

:15:38.:15:42.

avoid raising this in this acute moment of national mourning into a

:15:43.:15:46.

position where everybody turns around and starts going... It's you,

:15:47.:15:50.

you're the one. Did you take that on board? Do you think it's the

:15:51.:15:53.

conservatives who politicised something that was the campaign?

:15:54.:16:05.

I could have said virtually all but Paul said. It does seem odd that in

:16:06.:16:11.

an election, it is a bare knuckle fight. It ought to be a bare knuckle

:16:12.:16:14.

fight about the future of our country and democracy. All parties

:16:15.:16:19.

will now have to be Kebble about the tone and set. Some people say the

:16:20.:16:24.

Conservatives have never bored in their attack on Jeremy Corbyn today.

:16:25.:16:30.

Do you think so, that the Conservatives went overboard? It is

:16:31.:16:34.

unfortunate that he said what he said about foreign policy in his

:16:35.:16:37.

speech. That could have waited, but Labour had to get on the front foot

:16:38.:16:41.

because in this week, when there is a national emergency, the Prime

:16:42.:16:44.

Minister gets all the airtime. It is natural that that happens. The

:16:45.:16:47.

opposition always find it hard to get on the front foot. So Jeremy

:16:48.:16:51.

Corbyn was right to try and get on the front foot. His advisers were

:16:52.:16:55.

right about the speech, but they misjudged the tone of some of it.

:16:56.:17:00.

Jennifer, I register what you said about it being too soon, but do you

:17:01.:17:03.

think there is in his message something that will bring a lot of

:17:04.:17:08.

people with him? Potentially, but at the moment it is too early to say.

:17:09.:17:13.

Campaigning hasn't started in earnest, so no one has been out at

:17:14.:17:17.

the doors yet. We don't know how people are feeling or how people

:17:18.:17:24.

will respond. To come back to what I was saying about being days. Four

:17:25.:17:30.

days ago, Jeremy Corbyn was standing on a stage with Amber Rudd in

:17:31.:17:33.

Manchester and the whole point of it was that it was a nonpolitical

:17:34.:17:36.

occasion where people were not grandstanding or making political

:17:37.:17:40.

points. That was not the purpose of it. And that was received very well

:17:41.:17:45.

by Manchester. It was politicians together, paying their respects,

:17:46.:17:52.

showing that they cared and they understood the magnitude of this and

:17:53.:17:54.

they were not using it as a platform. I think it is yet to be

:17:55.:18:02.

seen how people will respond to political points being made a few

:18:03.:18:07.

days later. I am interested to get a sense, and you will be able to shed

:18:08.:18:11.

some light, Paul, on the kind of conversations going on in labour HQ

:18:12.:18:16.

now. Are people saying to Jeremy Corbyn, you have got to start taking

:18:17.:18:24.

the election back, or is there a difficulty? They know they are

:18:25.:18:28.

underdogs from beginning to end. There are parts of Labour HQ that do

:18:29.:18:33.

not have conversations with other parts of Labour HQ. According team

:18:34.:18:36.

have always known they are underdogs. They have always had the

:18:37.:18:40.

strategy to make people talk the kind of country you want to live in.

:18:41.:18:45.

Do they still feel like underdogs with today's pulls? Yes, because

:18:46.:18:50.

Labour's problem electorally is that all those votes are piled up in the

:18:51.:18:55.

wrong places. You can be an 38-40, an amazing position that Ed Miliband

:18:56.:19:00.

would kill for, but it could all be in Labour strongholds. They know

:19:01.:19:06.

that. What they wanted at the beginning was furthest to be about

:19:07.:19:11.

Brexit because of the unfortunate fact that it is not about Brexit.

:19:12.:19:18.

Iain, are people wobbling now? There is a wobble going on, absolutely.

:19:19.:19:23.

There are people who think that the last ten days have been a disaster

:19:24.:19:27.

for the Conservatives. Not necessarily the last few days, but

:19:28.:19:33.

certainly the U-turn. It was not a well thought out policy. Everybody

:19:34.:19:38.

can see that. Believe it or not, there are parts of the Conservative

:19:39.:19:41.

campaign headquarters that don't talk to other parts. So who is

:19:42.:19:49.

getting the blame for that? Conservative candidate are blaming

:19:50.:19:55.

Nick Timothy for that. In the end, the buck has to stop with Theresa

:19:56.:19:59.

May, but there are a lot of unhappy people about how this manifesto was

:20:00.:20:05.

drawn up some the policies in it. There is nothing eye-catching in it.

:20:06.:20:12.

Jennifer, do you think people will look at this week of the election

:20:13.:20:15.

and say this was when everything changed? Clearly, you are speaking

:20:16.:20:20.

first and foremost as a Manchester citizen, but with your political

:20:21.:20:24.

editor hat on, do you think this will be the week when the election

:20:25.:20:29.

changed, or will it be sucked into the overall campaign and people will

:20:30.:20:33.

revert to normal? I think it is going to change the narrative of it.

:20:34.:20:36.

If at the start of the week, people were talking about the Dementor tax

:20:37.:20:40.

and social care, at the end of the week we are talking about Isis and

:20:41.:20:46.

insecurity -- people were talking about the dementia tax. There are

:20:47.:20:54.

only two weeks to go. It is difficult to say. We all thought the

:20:55.:20:58.

Jo Cox murder in the referendum was a game changer. I thought that was

:20:59.:21:03.

it for Leave, because however it pans out, people will associate the

:21:04.:21:06.

person that did this with Leave. It didn't work out like that. So it is

:21:07.:21:10.

difficult to sit here now and say this is what will happen. I think

:21:11.:21:15.

the Conservatives will make this a presidential campaign. They will try

:21:16.:21:18.

and get Brexit back onto the agenda. That is what this election was

:21:19.:21:23.

supposed to be about. David Davis was supposed to make a big speech

:21:24.:21:27.

about that today. I assume he didn't because he didn't want to deflect

:21:28.:21:32.

attention from Jeremy Corbyn. Paul, do you think these polls reflect

:21:33.:21:36.

where Labour is now and how well they could do? I have always thought

:21:37.:21:39.

it would be relatively easy for Labour to get to 35 with a radical

:21:40.:21:43.

programme on national security and economics. Better than Ed Miliband?

:21:44.:21:51.

That is why I am a called in support. Beyond that, it is a

:21:52.:21:55.

question of building alliances in the centre. The striking thing about

:21:56.:21:58.

the polls is the total squeeze of everybody else. Amazingly, this has

:21:59.:22:07.

become about red versus blue. That is where we have this phenomenon

:22:08.:22:09.

himself. Thank you all. In a week when all eyes have

:22:10.:22:17.

been on domestic news, the extraordinary narrative

:22:18.:22:20.

unfolding in America. Today, it emerged that

:22:21.:22:22.

President Trump's son in law Jared Kushner is under scrutiny

:22:23.:22:25.

by the FBI as part of its He's being investigated

:22:26.:22:28.

because of meetings held in December with the Russian

:22:29.:22:30.

ambassador amongst others. The twist comes as former Director

:22:31.:22:32.

of the FBI, James Comey, is himself due to testify before

:22:33.:22:35.

the Senate Intelligence Committee. He was fired earlier this month

:22:36.:22:37.

by Donald Trump as he was trying to look into allegations

:22:38.:22:40.

of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia

:22:41.:22:43.

during the election. The president is facing claims

:22:44.:22:44.

he tried to interfere Some are starting to

:22:45.:22:46.

talk of impeachment. Our correspondent Paul Wood

:22:47.:22:53.

has broken several key developments on this story,

:22:54.:22:55.

and reports now on the state Russia, if you're listening,

:22:56.:22:57.

I hope you're able to find The entire thing has

:22:58.:23:08.

been a witchhunt, and What the hell is going

:23:09.:23:16.

on with Trump and Russia? So far, there is precious

:23:17.:23:34.

little evidence, The central allegation

:23:35.:23:38.

against President Trump is that his campaign colluded

:23:39.:23:47.

with Russia to hack leading The truth, the whole

:23:48.:23:50.

truth and nothing but the truth, There are now five separate

:23:51.:23:55.

congressional inquiries The former director

:23:56.:23:59.

of the CIA spoke to one. It should be clear to everyone that

:24:00.:24:05.

Russia brazenly interfered in our 2016 presidential election

:24:06.:24:07.

process and that they undertook these activities despite our strong

:24:08.:24:11.

protests and explicit warning That is the unified judgment

:24:12.:24:13.

of all the US intelligence agencies. I first heard about Russia

:24:14.:24:24.

interfering in the US election One of Donald Trump's Republican

:24:25.:24:26.

opponents sent me to meet someone who had retired from the US

:24:27.:24:33.

intelligence community. "You know", this former spy said

:24:34.:24:35.

to me, "We've just had a recording from one of our allies that shows

:24:36.:24:39.

the Russians trying to help Whether that recording or any

:24:40.:24:41.

recording like it really exists is the subject of the many

:24:42.:24:49.

investigations into what relationship the Trump campaign

:24:50.:24:55.

have with the Kremlin. But it is the bedrock assumption

:24:56.:24:57.

in these investigations that the Russians did interfere

:24:58.:25:00.

in the election, and they did it The focus is now on the former

:25:01.:25:02.

national security adviser Michael Flynn, the former campaign

:25:03.:25:11.

manager Paul Manafort, Trump's friend Roger Stone

:25:12.:25:17.

and Trump's son-in-law What did the President's

:25:18.:25:18.

men actually do? This man saw many of

:25:19.:25:25.

the top-secret transcripts of Trump's people talking

:25:26.:25:28.

to the Russians. You had the top classified

:25:29.:25:30.

clearances, and you saw many of the intercepts that are now

:25:31.:25:38.

the subject of fierce speculation Was there any evidence of collusion

:25:39.:25:41.

between the Trump campaign From the things I saw,

:25:42.:25:44.

there is nothing like that, and nor would you expect

:25:45.:25:50.

there to be. The Russians know we're listening

:25:51.:26:02.

and others know we're listening. So if you're going to do

:26:03.:26:07.

something terribly nefarious, That's a problem for Trump's

:26:08.:26:09.

critics, There have been a string

:26:10.:26:12.

of intelligence chiefs coming to committee hearings,

:26:13.:26:15.

and they have seen no Would it not have emerged

:26:16.:26:17.

by now if it was there? I have not seen a string of them

:26:18.:26:21.

coming before the committees They've said that it's had no

:26:22.:26:24.

effect on the election, but they didn't say

:26:25.:26:30.

there was no collusion. That's why we're having

:26:31.:26:34.

these investigations. That's why they have

:26:35.:26:36.

a special prosecutor. Another key allegation is that

:26:37.:26:43.

Russian criminals laundered money through Trump businesses,

:26:44.:26:46.

and that led to a relationship About 13 years ago,

:26:47.:26:49.

I was billions of dollars in debt. As Trump told viewers of his show

:26:50.:27:00.

The Apprentice, he bounced back. His businesses had gone

:27:01.:27:03.

bankrupt four times. Congressional investigators

:27:04.:27:06.

are trying to find out They're trying to find out who owns

:27:07.:27:11.

apartments in Trump buildings. Often, the real ownership is hidden

:27:12.:27:16.

under layers of shell companies. The working assumption

:27:17.:27:21.

is that the Russian mafia and the Russian state are often

:27:22.:27:24.

the same thing. Jonathan Winer was one of the US

:27:25.:27:28.

government's leading experts It would be a terrible thing

:27:29.:27:35.

if someone who was president of the United States knowingly

:27:36.:27:40.

profited off laundering It would be even worse if

:27:41.:27:42.

the President of the United States' business profited off laundering

:27:43.:27:49.

money for the Russian state. It is not the safety, stability,

:27:50.:27:56.

security of the American people, it is the advancement

:27:57.:28:02.

of the policies and goals of an adversary, and a serious

:28:03.:28:05.

adversary over a long time. So if that happened, that's

:28:06.:28:10.

something we need to know about, and the people involved need

:28:11.:28:12.

to be held accountable. President Trump also faces claims

:28:13.:28:22.

that Russian intelligence filmed him with prostitutes,

:28:23.:28:24.

and so he is vulnerable What are you looking for in this

:28:25.:28:27.

year's Miss Universe? Well, we have as good as I've ever

:28:28.:28:36.

seen in terms of beauty. It was during the Miss Universe

:28:37.:28:39.

pageant in Moscow that the blackmail Trump is alleged to have paid

:28:40.:28:46.

prostitutes to urinate on a bed That incendiary claim was made

:28:47.:28:51.

by a former MI6 spy, I was one of the first journalists

:28:52.:28:58.

to get a look at his now famous The White House calls

:28:59.:29:03.

Steele's dossier fake news. The President's supporters

:29:04.:29:17.

say he's a germophobe The president himself said of course

:29:18.:29:19.

he knew there'd be cameras There remains no proof

:29:20.:29:24.

that the Kremlin does Still, even before the Steele

:29:25.:29:34.

dossier was published, I heard from two different sources

:29:35.:29:39.

that the Russians had "kompromat", It's possible that all

:29:40.:29:43.

these separate sources to the Russian

:29:44.:29:49.

intelligence services. It could be a warning -

:29:50.:29:53.

"This is what we have on you". Or it could be what the Russians

:29:54.:29:59.

call "provokazia", a provocation or lie designed to confuse people,

:30:00.:30:02.

something to inoculate Mr Trump against all the other

:30:03.:30:08.

allegations he faces. as if the Kremlin does

:30:09.:30:16.

have a hold over him. Here he is with the Russian foreign

:30:17.:30:20.

minister and ambassador. No, say his supporters,

:30:21.:30:24.

this is the behaviour of a man The most deadly charge against Trump

:30:25.:30:27.

concerns his actions as president. Did he tell the then FBI

:30:28.:30:42.

director James Comey to kill James has become

:30:43.:30:44.

more famous than me. Trump greets Comey Godfather-style,

:30:45.:30:52.

with a kiss on the cheek... ...Just a few months

:30:53.:30:59.

before he sacked him. The former FBI director has

:31:00.:31:08.

apparently claimed this was done because he refused to pledge

:31:09.:31:10.

loyalty to the president. Trump has reportedly

:31:11.:31:12.

called Comey a "nut job". is that he has a flair

:31:13.:31:14.

for the dramatic, and he has in previous open testimonies

:31:15.:31:27.

in Congress spun dramatic stories So I can certainly see that

:31:28.:31:30.

what is coming is a dramatic moment where Comey lays out his side

:31:31.:31:38.

of events and his interactions with Trump, and we'll see

:31:39.:31:40.

where the investigations Obstruction of justice was the first

:31:41.:31:42.

charge in the articles

:31:43.:31:47.

of impeachment it's the cover-up that always gets

:31:48.:31:48.

you, not the original crime. People are saying things privately

:31:49.:31:58.

that they are not saying publicly. There's a lot of discussion

:31:59.:32:01.

about impeachment. Is that just the Democrats,

:32:02.:32:05.

or is this both sides? Of course there's

:32:06.:32:07.

conversations going on. You don't know exactly who's

:32:08.:32:08.

in those conversations. I've heard around town, I've no idea

:32:09.:32:17.

if there's any truth in it, that there's talk about a grand deal

:32:18.:32:20.

where Pence becomes president but there's a conversation

:32:21.:32:23.

with the Democrats about what would be on the agenda

:32:24.:32:25.

and if it had to come to this, everybody understands

:32:26.:32:28.

that the country is in a constitutional crisis,

:32:29.:32:30.

which we are. The President's defenders say

:32:31.:32:36.

that is pure fantasy. Look at the way I've

:32:37.:32:39.

been treated lately. To official Washington,

:32:40.:32:43.

it's very suspicious, but official Washington hasn't liked

:32:44.:32:45.

Donald Trump He's an honest man, and I think

:32:46.:32:47.

basically, he's going to be discovered

:32:48.:32:54.

to be an honest man. He'll probably be the most

:32:55.:32:56.

investigated president since Richard Nixon,

:32:57.:32:58.

but don't look at a guy Look at him over the long run

:32:59.:33:00.

and over the long run, Donald Trump will, I think,

:33:01.:33:04.

transcend his enemies. Trump's supporters say

:33:05.:33:16.

he is the victim of a conspiracy within the intelligence agencies

:33:17.:33:20.

to overturn the election result. His enemies believe

:33:21.:33:25.

he was long ago bought No evidence of that has yet emerged,

:33:26.:33:38.

but it would be a bitter irony for the president if he were brought

:33:39.:33:42.

down not by something in his past, but by his efforts

:33:43.:33:45.

to fight the accusations. Let's bring you back to this

:33:46.:33:49.

election. In this election, how do we know

:33:50.:33:51.

what really matters to people? The old certainties are gone -

:33:52.:33:54.

tribal loyalties shattered, People are less likely to vote

:33:55.:33:56.

blindly for the party of their parents -

:33:57.:34:00.

and factors such as age, geography, and education are emerging

:34:01.:34:03.

as the new dividing lines. Over the course of the

:34:04.:34:06.

campaign Katie Razzall is looking at some of

:34:07.:34:16.

these divisions in 21st For tonight's report she travelled

:34:17.:34:18.

from East Renfrewshire to Glasgow to examine where the faultlines lie

:34:19.:34:23.

on the issue of We're going to meet a mare who gave

:34:24.:34:25.

birth a couple of days ago. Conservative used to be

:34:26.:34:30.

a dirty word in Scotland. That is the sweetest

:34:31.:34:32.

thing I've ever seen. The party was branded one of horse

:34:33.:34:35.

riding, game shooting Bozena Bienkowska isn't that,

:34:36.:34:38.

though this East Renfrewshire farmer does ride her much-loved horses

:34:39.:34:46.

and has voted Tory in the past. She wants Scotland to

:34:47.:34:49.

stay part of the UK. Does this issue divide

:34:50.:34:52.

people, divide families? Within the family,

:34:53.:34:54.

we feel deeply divided. During the last referendum,

:34:55.:35:04.

I knew people that sold their houses and moved back to England

:35:05.:35:06.

because of the hostility. We all have different opinions,

:35:07.:35:09.

but my brother Chris seems to be most passionate about it,

:35:10.:35:12.

so if you'd like to speak to him, A recent YouGov poll

:35:13.:35:15.

found that this election, nine out of ten voters who don't

:35:16.:35:21.

want independence will opt Three quarters of Yes

:35:22.:35:24.

voters will vote SNP, I have no interest in independence

:35:25.:35:27.

and I'm glad they voted against it. Most of us didn't want

:35:28.:35:41.

to speak up in case... Well, because you'd

:35:42.:35:45.

get a tirade of abuse. At the time we lost the vote,

:35:46.:35:48.

I was quite happy to leave it five, ten years until the Scottish

:35:49.:35:52.

population moved again There was no immediate

:35:53.:35:54.

rush to have one. But the thing of being taken out

:35:55.:36:01.

of the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people,

:36:02.:36:04.

who voted 62% for staying in the EU, meant that the independence vote

:36:05.:36:07.

should happen again. I didn't want Brexit and I certainly

:36:08.:36:09.

don't want a second referendum. We've already voted

:36:10.:36:14.

to stay and that's it. Because the politicians are very

:36:15.:36:18.

loud and it is the ticket they've been running with,

:36:19.:36:20.

they can't put it down because what's the point of the SNP

:36:21.:36:23.

if they don't have independence? Which political party do you believe

:36:24.:36:27.

will safeguard the union? I would hate to

:36:28.:36:30.

separate from the UK. I'm quite happy to be part of

:36:31.:36:37.

the British Isles, just not the UK. Well, you haven't really got

:36:38.:36:41.

the choice unless you got East Renfrewshire is a Tory

:36:42.:36:43.

and Labour target seat. It was Labour's from 1997

:36:44.:36:53.

and is the SNP's now. It's only three years

:36:54.:36:57.

since the independence referendum, with another one mooted

:36:58.:37:01.

and creating tensions. On the nationalist side,

:37:02.:37:05.

the No vote brought about the overwhelming SNP triumphs

:37:06.:37:07.

at the last general election. This time round, there's

:37:08.:37:11.

a sense that unionists may want to send a message,

:37:12.:37:13.

and that could benefit the party that spent decades in the Scottish

:37:14.:37:16.

political wilderness. In the polling done since the last

:37:17.:37:20.

general election, though the SNP is still way in front,

:37:21.:37:25.

its trajectory has been downwards. The Conservatives, from a low base,

:37:26.:37:29.

have seen a steady rise. The party's nearly doubled its vote

:37:30.:37:32.

share, mainly at the expense The problem is, for me

:37:33.:37:35.

and a lot of people like me, if you're not going to vote SNP,

:37:36.:37:41.

you're not terribly sure Gordon Canning is a member of East

:37:42.:37:44.

Renfrewshire's Mearns Golf Academy. But efforts by the Scottish

:37:45.:37:49.

Conservatives to ensure that they're seen as the party most in favour

:37:50.:37:54.

of the union appear Could you ever bring

:37:55.:37:57.

yourself to vote for them? Is that a difficult thing

:37:58.:38:02.

to say in Scotland? Yeah, it's a difficult thing

:38:03.:38:06.

for someone who's never voted Tory before to say that they may vote

:38:07.:38:09.

Tory. Because I want the SNP to be aware

:38:10.:38:11.

that there are a large number of people in Scotland who do not

:38:12.:38:24.

want another Using Brexit as an excuse

:38:25.:38:27.

for another independence The Conservatives haven't

:38:28.:38:33.

necessarily been the most Because Labour is no longer

:38:34.:38:44.

a credible opposition. Which means people are more willing

:38:45.:38:52.

to vote Conservative? And have you ever voted

:38:53.:38:58.

Conservative before? And how do you usually vote,

:38:59.:39:01.

if you don't mind me asking? And will you vote

:39:02.:39:09.

for them this time? Because I want to vote tactically

:39:10.:39:12.

to try and keep the SNP out. 12 miles away, Glasgow

:39:13.:39:24.

is nationalist heartland. The city voted Yes in 2014,

:39:25.:39:27.

and all its seats went SNP But at this month's local elections,

:39:28.:39:32.

even here, the Conservatives I find it strange because I don't

:39:33.:39:36.

know if you've noticed in the last week, but in the East End of Glasgow

:39:37.:39:42.

they elected Tory councillors, I have to be honest with you,

:39:43.:39:45.

it's quite impressive that the place that has the lowest life expectancy

:39:46.:39:59.

in Western Europe decided we needed Chrissy Ross comperes comedy

:40:00.:40:01.

night at the Yesbar, renamed in the run-up

:40:02.:40:04.

to the elect independence vote. Although we have a very inclusive

:40:05.:40:06.

culture in Scotland, we have a very divided one

:40:07.:40:09.

times as well. I wouldn't say it's

:40:10.:40:12.

along sectarian lines. It's very much pro and anti union

:40:13.:40:14.

lines that it's drawn across. Do you feel that flag-waving

:40:15.:40:18.

nationalism on both sides is infusing the debate more

:40:19.:40:20.

and more here? It's definitely made it

:40:21.:40:24.

become more entrenched. People are now taking

:40:25.:40:27.

a position they feel they can't come back from,

:40:28.:40:29.

which I don't feel There also seems to be a problem

:40:30.:40:31.

where people see themselves I vote SNP because I see myself

:40:32.:40:34.

as European and I'm a little bit dismayed at the fact that we're

:40:35.:40:41.

leaving the EU. At Glasgow's Grand Ole Opry, plenty

:40:42.:40:43.

are in step with the SNP's vision. But from those who dance

:40:44.:40:53.

to the union tune, a sense, perhaps, of why, even in the city Labour

:40:54.:40:56.

dominated for so long, I'm from an area of Glasgow,

:40:57.:40:58.

Shettleston, which voted It's never been Conservative

:40:59.:41:07.

in my lifetime as far as I know. So things have changed

:41:08.:41:14.

locally recently. You've voted Labour

:41:15.:41:19.

and Lib Dem in the past. Could you ever vote

:41:20.:41:21.

Conservative, do you think? As I said, I haven't made up my mind

:41:22.:41:23.

how I'm going to vote. But it's the union you'll

:41:24.:41:28.

be thinking about? I would like to vote Labour,

:41:29.:41:30.

because I predominantly have. I've got a nagging doubt

:41:31.:41:35.

about Jeremy Corbyn and some of his allies in the back

:41:36.:41:37.

of my mind. The divisions in Scotland may

:41:38.:41:51.

still be focused around the question of independence,

:41:52.:41:53.

but the SNP's dominance this election still appears unassailable

:41:54.:41:55.

across much of the country. The latest YouGov poll

:41:56.:41:57.

puts the party on 42%. But unless Labour can

:41:58.:42:05.

turn its fortunes around, unlike in 2015, the nationalists'

:42:06.:42:06.

main challenger this time Katie Razzall with that undivided

:42:07.:42:09.

Britain. But before we go, NASA's Juno probe

:42:10.:42:24.

has just delivered these dramatic images of Jupiter's south pole,

:42:25.:42:27.

complete with earth sized cyclones and its own northern

:42:28.:42:29.

lights style aurora. Hello there, the heat we seen here

:42:30.:43:20.

in the UK in the last couple of days will come and eight in a country

:43:21.:43:26.

break. Some thunderstorms, potentially torrential

:43:27.:43:27.

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