31/05/2017 Newsnight


31/05/2017

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The Tories relaunch their campaign, this time with Amber Rudd,

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The question in this election is whether we want a country for the

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many, or just the few. I just have to take on some of Jeremy Corbyn's

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fantasy economics. I mean come on he has this money tree wish list in his

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manifesto. Meanwhile, as one pollster suggests there will be a

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hung parliament, Labour refuses to tell us whether they will rule out a

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coalition with the SNP. I'm not dealing with hypothetical is, I'm

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sorry. Why not? It is a reasonable question. We are fighting this to

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win. We're going to cancel a Paris

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climate agreement. No decision yet, but it

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looks like he will honour The first of our new series

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of political bedtime stories. There was a prince called David, and

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he ruled well. Well, we had the nearest thing

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to a full-spectrum TV election Seven politicians, some of them

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candidates for Prime Minister, lined up in Cambridge,

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with the conspicuous absence of the actual

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Prime Minister, Theresa May. She was replaced by Amber Rudd,

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the Home Secretary, who did an effective job at looking Prime

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Ministerial. The debate had some sparky

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moments, and some recurrent Everybody on stage

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had their highlights, Nick, how did it go? Well, obviously

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Jeremy Corbyn's late decision to turn up at this debate put the

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spotlight on Theresa May, who was a notable absentee. And there were

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plenty of jokes about how the Prime Minister called this election the

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most important in her lifetime and she could not be bothered to turn

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up. To which the Conservative Party says, thank you very much to those

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six parties, you are illustrating one of our key themes about the

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selection, which is that if Jeremy Corbyn emerges as the leader of the

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largest party on June nine, the UK will be governed by a coalition of

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chaos. What would I say about the overall verdict? There was no clear

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winner and there was no clear loser. Jeremy Corbyn did as he did in the

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Channel 4 debate on Sunday, he spoke from the heart on matters dear to

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him, food banks for example. Amber Rudd did what she did last year in

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the referendum debate, had some pre-packaged sound bites, one on the

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Monopoly board that didn't quite work. But she stood up well against

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the six other parties and delivered her core message, which was the

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choice, who do you want to negotiate Brexit? Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa

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May? A bit of a question mark, because Theresa May wasn't here.

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Before this debate, YouGov carried out another poll, and it makes

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pretty interesting reading to night. That's right. A YouGov poll in The

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Times tomorrow suggests the Conservative lead is now down to

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three points, 42 the Conservative, 39 to Labour. There is a dramatic

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tightening of the polls as far as YouGov is concerned. But that is not

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being borne out in other polls. The ICM poll in the Guardian yesterday

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gave the Conservatives a 12 point lead. I spoke to one senior Labour

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source who said to me, we are clear that there is a pattern that the

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polls are tightening. But as there being a dramatic tightening, well,

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they say they're going to be really cautious. Thanks, Nick. We will be

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talking about the polls and what's driving them a little later in the

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programme. Well, there were strong moments

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for everybody on stage, David Grossman was watching

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as the argument progressed. Not since Captain Mannering's wife

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has a character so dominated a scene while not appearing. Jeremy Corbyn.

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There were quite a party leaders. One Westminster party leader, one

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co-leader and a stunt double -- that work for party leaders. The first

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question of the night, who is missing? Theresa May. The reason any

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leading lady sends a stunt double is so she doesn't get damaged if things

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go wrong. So with this, Amber Rudd's tactic was clear. Ignore the others,

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but slammed Jeremy Corbyn hard at every opportunity. Jeremy, I know

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there is no extra payment you don't want to add to, no tax you don't

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want to rise. But the fact is we have to concentrate our resources on

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the people who need it most and we have to stop thinking, as you do,

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that there is a magic money tree. You have to be accountable for the

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money you want to spend. Have you been to a food bank? Have you seen

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people sleeping around our stations? Jeremy Corbyn managed quite a few

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slams back. We cannot go on giving money away to the very rich. This

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Government is proposing another ?60 billion in tax giveaways in the next

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five years. Instead I say turn it round and invest in the future of

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all the while people. With so many participants, the debate often

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descended into chaos -- of all of our people. Particularly when they

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were arguing about chaos. This is chaotic, chaotic. As the Government,

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the Conservatives were doing the most defending. Judge us on our

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record... LAUGHTER

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We have cut the deficit. It wasn't the past that worried the Lib Dems

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so much as the future. We have a general election in eight days,

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Theresa May assuming a colossal landslide, that's why she thinks she

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can ignore people and not bother turning up tonight. She is telling

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people, we will take your house of you and we will allow you to know

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how much you get to keep after your majority. If tonight you resolve to

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vote Conservative on the 8th of June, you were resolving to give

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Theresa May emission to do what you like. Remove university tuition

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fees. Mike there are other parties to be judged on their record. You

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have a Labour government in Wales that is charging students to go to

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university. This is a UK Government... Labour is different in

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the UK than in Wales? It's going to be a UK policy. It is unbelievably

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cruel to using lives as bargaining chips. The Greens attack the

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Government and the UK on Brexit. I want to make the case for free

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movement, it has been the most wonderful gift, the ability to

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travel and work and live and love in 27 other member states, and for them

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to come here. I am sorry that the Labour Party now doesn't support

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that. Frankly. Mike when the subject turned to terrorism, the Ukip leader

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called for internment of suspect if necessary. 23,000 jihadis out there

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want to do us harm. Lets not give our freedom and our liberty awaits.

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British rights over the rights of jihadis. The question was about

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terrorism and extremism, and Ukip went straight for more slums.

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APPLAUSE -- went straight for Muslims. It

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wasn't a Muslim that shot Jo Cox. At the end of the 90 minutes, two

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questions hung in the. Was Theresa May harmed or helped by not being

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there, and was a single voter's mind changed by any of it's David

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Grossman. Well, as is traditional with these

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things, the debate tonight was followed by rounds of frantic PR

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from all sides afterwards It's all wrapped up now, but just

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before we came on air I caught up with the Brexit Secretary,

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David Davis. First, I spoke to Labour's Shadow

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Foreign Secretary, Emily Thornberry. I started by asking her whether

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Jeremy Corbyn taking part in the debate plays into those Tory

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warnings of a coalition of chaos. Well, I think that's probably the

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desperate attempt of Conservative Party Central office to try and spin

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this. But, you know what, I think if I was Amber Rudd I would be going

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back to Theresa May and saying, you really on me. I'm in front of all of

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those people and I say, judge us on our record, and people laughed. I

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had to be that a front that up, it should have been you, you are the

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Prime Minister, you are supposed to be the one who is strong and stable

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and able to negotiate Brexit, and yet you're not even prepared to

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debate with pupils to what I want to push a little harder on the

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coalition of chaos line. -- debate with people. Many people thought it

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was rather effective, and the polls, which have had a surge for Labour,

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the polls perhaps suggest a hung parliament is more likely than we

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have bought. That means there could be a coalition led by the Labour

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Party. You know what I'm going to say, Evan, you know, we don't

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believe the polls, we don't pay attention to polls. What we're doing

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is we are out there to win it. We do sense on the ground that things are

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beginning to change and that they want to listen to us and that they

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do see there is an alternative, and an alternative which is a potential

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Government that has the vision for Britain and is about hope and is

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about an alternative. It does not have to be that way, and the power

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is in the hands of the people, they can decide that no, despite the fact

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that you guys in the media and Evra Ross Wardle been saying, Theresa May

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is going to walk it, it is just a question of how big a majority it

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will be -- in the media and everywhere else. It is up to the

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media to decide, and the people are beginning to listen to us and

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realising that we are a serious alternative. It does not have to be

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like this. Point made. You can just clarify for the hypothetical

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situation in which it is a hung parliament, that Labour will not

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have a collision agreement with the Scottish National Party, correct? We

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can take that as read, that will not happen, and you can be clear about

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that now and it would be a breach of the promised if there is one of two

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the election? I'm not dealing with hypothetical is with you, I'm sorry.

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Why not? It's a perfectly reasonable question. Because we're fighting to

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win! We want to have a majority in the House of Commons and we want to

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be the next government and we are putting for and our alternative to

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the British people and it's for them to decide which government they

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want. One thing is for sure, it's either going to be a Labour

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government or a Conservative government, and that's how it is.

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It's very interesting that you won't rule out a collision with the SNP,

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and anybody listening to you will say, if we don't agree with Emily

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Thornbury that it may be a hung parliament, then we'd be right to

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think they will do a deal with the SNP. We have put our faith in the

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British people and in our ability to be able to put forward our arguments

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and alternative vision. The fact is, you know, this is the biggest star

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that we have in our show, which is a series of ideas and an alternative

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vision for Britain. Let me just take a couple of points in there. If you

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want to wave the manifesto... The manifesto says, it is very carefully

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costed. It's not that funny! It says it's carefully costed. Sorry, I'm

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laughing because I know you're going to start asking by numbers. Believe

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me, I'm not trying to test you on your numbers, I'm not. However,

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there are some policy areas, policy areas where it is simply not costed.

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Our benefits going to be operated or not? Because working age benefits,

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on Monday Jeremy Corbyn said they would be but there is no cost in

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there for that, that is not a costed manifesto, is it? If we have a great

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honour of taking over as the next government, we will need to go into

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the Department of and look at the chaos that is currently Universal

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Credit, and we need to look again at how well it is working, how that it

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is, and how the cuts will be effecting real people's likes. We

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have set aside ?2 billion per year in order to be able to look again at

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Universal Credit and sorted out and make sure it is there. There is a

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series of benefits that we will. The cuts off, I can reel them off if you

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want. It starts with the bedroom tax and how unfair that is. It's just

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the operating of benefits. Some of your plans are carefully costed and

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they are there. -- the operating of benefits. This is not costed and it

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is quite expensive. This is when you have basically changed on the hoof,

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you have you turned on your manifesto, it is not in there.

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Jeremy Corbyn says it is on the TV. That is different to your manifesto.

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The reason we put into the manifesto by the focus on Universal Credit is

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because this is another vehicle that people will be getting their

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benefits, we want to make sure it is done fairly and properly. Emily

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Thornbury, we are out of time, thank for joining us.

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Also doing his duty at the Spin Room tonight

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was the Brexit Secretary, David Davis.

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I asked him how he felt Amber Rudd did this evening standing in for her

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leader. I think she did astonishingly well, she was

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straightforward, calm, sober, answered questions directly. It was

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a metaphorical comparison with the coalition of against her, noise and

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the argument, she was the voice of calm in the middle of it, she did

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very well indeed. Theresa May did well not to go because she would not

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have done as well as Amber Rudd. Well, I don't think that is true,

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bear in mind a couple of things: she appeared on the same programme as

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Jeremy Corbyn on Monday, doing the same again Friday, she has done 5500

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miles of touring around the country, answering loads of questions from

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public and journalists. Do you think she watched tonight, do you know if

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she watched it? Honestly, I don't know.

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Bearing in mind she has got to run the country at the same time, she

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has homework to do. Do you think she watched the debate? I don't know,

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but I wouldn't necessarily assume so. It is embarrassing if you are

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the leader of the party, the Prime Minister, and somebody stands in for

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you, and to some extent, shows you up, by answering the questions so

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nimbly, which is not characteristic of Theresa May in this campaign. I

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don't think that shows her up, one of the real underestimated

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characteristics, of great leaders, is they have good people around

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them, good people around her, Amber Rudd is one of the stars, that is a

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very good thing. Amber was able to be straightforward because we have a

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strong argument, a strong case, she made it well. One of the things she

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said related to your department. She said, when it comes to Brexit, you

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have a plan. Yes, we do. I thought that you had a set of objectives,

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but having objectives is not the same as having a plan. I plan is

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what you do when they do not like your objectives! Well, we have both,

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the manifesto, has a page and a half, what it refers to is well over

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100 pages. Two White Papers, major speech, that long letter. Behind all

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of that, those are the aims, the idea of a agreement, customs

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agreement, idea of continuing counterterrorism cooperation, all

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those things are there but underpinning that, there is also

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chairing a meeting today, as I was, first steps of the plan, where we

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hope we win the election and we start, 11 days later, into the

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negotiations. Great, maybe, as it is the Brexit election by your own

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admission, maybe you can share with us some aspects of the plan, maybe

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you can tell us what your immigration policy will be, once we

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leave. First thing we have said is that we will bring control back to

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Britain. That is not a policy, it is a phrase, David...! Wait a minute,

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let me get to the point, Evan, people voted for control the borders

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and money and their own laws in the referendum, all of those matter, in

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the control of borders, we are talking about bringing control back

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to Britain's Parliament can decide on eventually what the immigration

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policy is and we have said clearly that the aim is to bring it down to

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sustainable levels. That is not a policy, with respect, that is not a

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policy. A plan... Too often the commentators want to go into the

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weeds and the details... LAUGHTER What? The outcome will be that. You

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have told us no deal is better than a bad deal, but you have not told us

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how bad a deal has to be... I just want to ask you, would you walk

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away, literally say, no deal, if, for example, the European court of

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justice had to be involved in the European aviation agreement that we

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sign, or something like that. No deal is better than a deal that has

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anything...? Many components of a bad deal, we will not draw the lines

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for you so that our negotiations partners on the other side nowhere

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to push it too, but I will say that we will not have the European court

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of justice ruling on issues inside Britain. This is not a plan, it is a

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lot of things that you say, that you are going to do. Set of demands that

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are unpleasant and not compatible, is that what you are talking about?

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Why would... Not at all, why would they be presented with incompatible

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and unpleasant things, we are looking for the best deal possible,

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a free-trade agreement, customs agreement, an agreement on

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counterterrorism and security, those are not unpalatable things, and in

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addition, will seek to open up free-trade agreements with the rest

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of the world, those are all very good things, not very bad things.

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The last one, another poll this evening, YouGov poll, 3% difference

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between the Tories and Labour. What are you reading into this, into this

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surge, too much Theresa May and not enough Amber Rudd on the campaign?

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You have been a television commentator, radio commentator, for

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a long time, you are very numerous, above all people, you should know

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how untrustworthy pulsar. What it reminds people is that if you do not

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have Theresa May going to that negotiation, 11 days after the

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election, it will be Jeremy Corbyn. -- very numerate. The people

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watching your programme have got to make a decision, which do they want?

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I know which, it is clear to me. Well, this has not been the election

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the Tories thought it would be An easy cruise to a much enhanced

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majority, all based on the broad the party seems to be

:19:33.:19:36.

in the midst of a wobble. Although still in the lead

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according to the polls, it's hard to think of an election

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campaign that has seen a more

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dramatic turn against But, the Conservatives

:19:48.:19:48.

are a party keen to get a grip, And campaign chief Lynton Crosby has

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been given an enhanced role for the final week, Newsnight has learned.

:19:58.:20:06.

Nick Watt looks at what is next for Theresa May.

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VOICEOVER: Just a few short weeks ago,

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Theresa May was banking on a Blue

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surge sweeping her back into Downing Street

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It turns out that a few weeks is now an eternity in British politics.

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With just eight days to go, our strong and stable

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Prime Minister is stumbling towards the finishing line.

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Elections rarely work out as they're meant to work out.

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It looked like this was going to be a very boring campaign,

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I think, in lots of ways, what the Conservatives have

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Because actually I think they're looking at this

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huge problem of care, which is growing because -

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luckily, I'm growing older myself - we're all living longer,

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and it's a problem that has to be addressed sometime.

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But to do that kind of in the middle of an election campaign isn't

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And that's made it a much more interesting campaign.

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The new pressure on the Prime Minister followed an estimate

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by the pollsters YouGov that Theresa May could lose 20 seats.

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Tory high command is disdainful of the findings.

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They believe the Prime Minister is still on course for a decisive

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victory on the grounds that Jeremy Corbyn is not seen

:21:07.:21:09.

For all of the bullish talk amongst senior Tories,

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Cabinet Ministers acknowledge that their campaign did

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experience a wobble last week after Theresa May's U-turn

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But rare nerves in the May camp led to one major change,

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Sir Lynton Crosby, who masterminded David Cameron's victory in 2015,

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has taken sole command of the Tory election campaign.

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Everybody bar the Prime Minister now answers to him.

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Under Lynton Crosby's leadership, there has been a renewed focus

:21:38.:21:39.

on the original issue the Prime Minister said

:21:40.:21:41.

who is best placed to deliver Brexit?

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David Cameron's former Director of Communications believes

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They're willing to check to go over the top with him

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and go in the direction that he sets.

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lots of people just wanted to follow what he said

:22:10.:22:21.

and were prepared to listen to him and hear what he had to say.

:22:22.:22:25.

But he was also very clear in 2015 - I'm in charge.

:22:26.:22:27.

The dominant role now played by Lynton Crosby shows how

:22:28.:22:30.

the architect of the original social care policy, the Prime Minister's

:22:31.:22:32.

Joint Chief of Staff, Nick Timothy, has been damaged by the U-turn.

:22:33.:22:35.

One minister told Newsnight that after the election,

:22:36.:22:37.

there will be calls to curb the unconstitutional

:22:38.:22:39.

dominance of Timothy and his colleague Fiona Hill.

:22:40.:22:45.

Ministers say the Prime Minister's authority has taken a knock.

:22:46.:22:47.

but only if she secures a decisive victory.

:22:48.:22:55.

is a parliamentary majority of at least 50.

:22:56.:22:58.

about why the Prime Minister inflicted this election

:22:59.:23:03.

Welcome to the BBC Election Debate 2017.

:23:04.:23:10.

Theresa May's less-than-perfect campaign was forced

:23:11.:23:11.

onto the defensive again tonight over the television Leaders' Debate.

:23:12.:23:19.

We invited the leaders of seven parties to take part.

:23:20.:23:21.

Some are here, others chose to send senior representatives.

:23:22.:27:30.

The election battle in Scotland is heating up. Signs are that Nicola

:27:31.:27:35.

Sturgeon's party remain somewhere ahead, but she has not had it all

:27:36.:27:39.

her own way in this campaign, accurately softening her demand for

:27:40.:27:42.

an independence referendum as seen last year. How is it going down,

:27:43.:27:48.

Kirsty has been on the road with Nicola Sturgeon today, as she

:27:49.:27:49.

campaigns for votes in Fife. The morning after the SNP manifesto

:27:50.:28:01.

launch. If I was to tell you that instead of going on this cruise, you

:28:02.:28:04.

can see Nicola Sturgeon, would you get off the boat? Would you be quite

:28:05.:28:09.

keen to see her? Probably wouldn't seek her out, but if she was here to

:28:10.:28:14.

chat, I would say hello. Apparently she is also coming here for a bite

:28:15.:28:20.

to eat. Important visitor in the fish bar today? Yes, I believe so.

:28:21.:28:26.

Any special recipe? Obviously, a traditional haddock and chips is the

:28:27.:28:30.

most popular, award-winning. One mile away, still more than 30

:28:31.:28:38.

fishing boats. This fisherman voted to leave the EU, but he is for the

:28:39.:28:45.

SNP. Tell me, what you think of Nicola Sturgeon? She is good, aye,

:28:46.:28:49.

puts herself across well, talks to the point. Back in town, Nicola

:28:50.:28:56.

Sturgeon is doing what she and Theresa May say they like doing

:28:57.:29:01.

best, campaigning. The thing with the general election campaign, even

:29:02.:29:05.

if you are First Minister, any photo opportunity is better than no photo

:29:06.:29:08.

opportunity especially when they are young and cannot speak back!

:29:09.:29:17.

One resident has concerns about education. What are her policies?

:29:18.:29:26.

Generally, they're not bad on the whole, but education... And there

:29:27.:29:33.

have been repeated questions during this campaign about what the SNP

:29:34.:29:36.

have done with their decade in government. I sat down with the

:29:37.:29:40.

First Minister. Two years ago you said you wanted to be judged on your

:29:41.:29:49.

education record. Dropping our position in Scotland since 2006 on

:29:50.:29:54.

several key indicators, tenth to 19th position internationally on

:29:55.:30:01.

science, 11th to 23rd on reading, Scotland overall is average. For a

:30:02.:30:05.

country that once prided itself on its literacy and numeracy, that is

:30:06.:30:09.

pretty disastrous. That's why I've said we've got improvements to make.

:30:10.:30:14.

That study is two years old. But you have been in power for ten years!

:30:15.:30:18.

I'm being frank both about where we have made good progress in

:30:19.:30:21.

education, I'm not going to sit here and except that they're not areas

:30:22.:30:27.

where progress been made. I can point you to lots of things were

:30:28.:30:31.

over the 10-year period we are seeing improvements. I can cite the

:30:32.:30:34.

fact that there are fewer young people from our deprived communities

:30:35.:30:37.

leaving school with no call of occasions, that number has halved

:30:38.:30:42.

since we took office. We have regular numbers of young people

:30:43.:30:46.

going into education the attainment gap is starting to narrow. In the

:30:47.:30:51.

election manifesto, the rich and independents just once and there was

:30:52.:30:55.

absolutely no reference to the referendum. -- you mentioned

:30:56.:30:59.

independence just once. This is not a vote winner. This is one of the

:31:00.:31:03.

strange things about Scottish politics just now. My political

:31:04.:31:07.

opponents say that I talk about nothing but independence. The fact

:31:08.:31:10.

of the matter is, my position on giving people a choice at the end of

:31:11.:31:14.

the Brexit process is clear. But I'm also fighting a Westminster election

:31:15.:31:18.

where I think it's also really important to talk about what SNP MPs

:31:19.:31:25.

can do to stand against further Tory cuts and to strengthen Scotland's

:31:26.:31:27.

hand in the Brexit negotiations. If the Tories take target seats, say

:31:28.:31:31.

ten of the target seats, you may even lose your deputy leader if that

:31:32.:31:34.

happens, would you then except that this has been a high watermark for

:31:35.:31:40.

independence? Look, I hear these things all the time. We had an

:31:41.:31:44.

exceptional election result in 2015. I hope we can repeat that we are

:31:45.:31:48.

working hard to do that. But you know this well. Before that election

:31:49.:31:52.

result, the most MPs the SNP had ever had in our entire history was

:31:53.:31:57.

11. We had six in the parliament before we got 56. I get people

:31:58.:32:02.

saying to me now, if you only get 50, 45, 40, that somehow a disaster,

:32:03.:32:11.

it's a ridiculous way of looking at things. In The Times today, there is

:32:12.:32:14.

a poll which suggests a hung parliament. In that scenario, would

:32:15.:32:18.

you do a deal with Theresa May? No. I wouldn't put a Conservative Prime

:32:19.:32:23.

Minister into office. Even if she said, Nicholas Durden, I'm going to

:32:24.:32:28.

give you top billing next to me at the Brexit negotiations -- Nicola

:32:29.:32:32.

Sturgeon. In my lifetime, Tory governments have been damaging for

:32:33.:32:37.

industry, public services, public finances in Scotland. I think I've

:32:38.:32:40.

got a duty to be honest with people, I wouldn't support a Conservative

:32:41.:32:44.

Prime Minister. You have already said there could be some kind of

:32:45.:32:47.

accommodation with Labour, but could you really do a deal with Jeremy

:32:48.:32:53.

Corbyn, a man you said is not fit to be Prime Minister? Seriously. I'm

:32:54.:32:56.

trying just to be frank with people. I said it in 2015, if the arithmetic

:32:57.:33:02.

made a Progressive alliance possible, I would want to explore

:33:03.:33:06.

the SNP, not being part of a formal coalition, but I also have to deal

:33:07.:33:14.

with reality. I think what I seen over the last few days, she

:33:15.:33:18.

wrong-footed herself in calling this election. I think it has been

:33:19.:33:22.

bizarre watching the Prime Minister, who called this election, appear to

:33:23.:33:26.

be the most unprepared of the leaders for the selection. She can't

:33:27.:33:30.

answer basic questions. She has spent the election trying to dodge

:33:31.:33:34.

scrutiny, avoiding talking to real voters. I think if Theresa May has

:33:35.:33:39.

wrong-footed anybody, it's herself, and she's probably already starting

:33:40.:33:44.

to regret it. Nicola Sturgeon may be confident, and if the polls are

:33:45.:33:52.

right, it's a fairly safe bet that the SNP may win a majority of seats

:33:53.:33:55.

in Scotland. But if as predicted, the Conservatives increased their

:33:56.:33:57.

toehold, the danger for the Nationalists is that they may be

:33:58.:34:00.

seen to lost the momentum for independence. But with just over one

:34:01.:34:04.

week to go to the election, that is something that Nicola Sturgeon is

:34:05.:34:11.

just not prepared to swallow. Kirsty Talkington Nicola Sturgeon. We

:34:12.:34:14.

should say that we have approached the other main parties in Scotland,

:34:15.:34:20.

and we will be hearing from the other leaders before the election.

:34:21.:34:23.

Maybe they will be eating chips as well extract the world has been

:34:24.:34:27.

waiting with a degree of trepidation for Donald Trump to make up his mind

:34:28.:34:30.

on whether the US will withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement.

:34:31.:34:34.

He has been teasing us a bit to date with a tweet. I'll be announcing my

:34:35.:34:39.

decision on the Paris Accord over the next few days. Make America

:34:40.:34:43.

great again! Make of that what you will. Is the US ready to walk out of

:34:44.:34:47.

the deal, and what difference would it make to the planet if it did? A

:34:48.:34:54.

climate change adviser to Barack Obama joins us of the internet from

:34:55.:35:02.

Boulder Colorado. The Danish government's environmental

:35:03.:35:05.

Institute's the sceptical environmentalist has reservations.

:35:06.:35:11.

Good riddance to Paris, is that your take on it? Fundamentally we know

:35:12.:35:18.

that even if everybody did everything they promised in Paris,

:35:19.:35:25.

which is not going to happen because Trump has announced he is not going

:35:26.:35:28.

to do the clean power plan, but even if everyone did it, it would only

:35:29.:35:31.

get us 1% of the way of what politicians have promised us. It was

:35:32.:35:34.

already a very expensive treaty that would do almost no good. The whole

:35:35.:35:38.

conversation we are having right now, is Trump going to leave or not,

:35:39.:35:41.

is not going to make much difference. It's just a difference

:35:42.:35:45.

between an ineffective treaty and a very ineffective treaty. It does

:35:46.:35:48.

offer as an opportunity to start talking about, is there a smarter

:35:49.:35:52.

way forward? Yes, there is a much better way to try to help the

:35:53.:35:57.

climate change is that of going down... Let me put this to Paul, it

:35:58.:36:05.

is true, Paris is not the saving of the planet, is it? Paris is

:36:06.:36:10.

necessary, but not sufficient. It goes at the end of 24 years of trial

:36:11.:36:18.

and error to try and come up with a flame work -- a framework for

:36:19.:36:21.

nations, it is a long-term framework. The pledges that were

:36:22.:36:27.

made only go to 2030, they will be followed by other pledges for the

:36:28.:36:32.

future. Already the 2030 pledges will put down the global emissions

:36:33.:36:38.

curve so that it is significantly less, it is a foundation to build

:36:39.:36:41.

on, it's not sufficient but the best hope we have got. Paul Bodnar, what

:36:42.:36:47.

do you think the rest of the world should do now? If America leaves,

:36:48.:36:52.

should they play hardball? Should they have sanctions against American

:36:53.:36:55.

goods that are made in industries that don't face the same

:36:56.:36:59.

environmental constraint that our industries do? How do you think they

:37:00.:37:02.

should play it? The rest of the world has made quite clear that they

:37:03.:37:06.

intend to carry on. One of the changes that happened over the last

:37:07.:37:11.

15 years or so, since Kyodo and Copenhagen, is that countries have

:37:12.:37:13.

realised that making this transition to a clean energy economy is in

:37:14.:37:18.

their economic interest. If you look at the size of the global green

:37:19.:37:22.

energy market for goods and services, already about $1.5

:37:23.:37:27.

trillion and growing rapidly, it is a huge economic opportunity for

:37:28.:37:31.

Chinese and European firms, and they will be only too happy to pick up

:37:32.:37:35.

the slack from the United States in that regard. It's rather sad for our

:37:36.:37:37.

exporters and our businesses, however. Bjorn, I saw you scoffing

:37:38.:37:45.

as Paul was saying all of that. I'm sorry, we've just got to get back to

:37:46.:37:50.

reality. Look, the point is that right now the International energy

:37:51.:37:54.

agency tells us that we are spending more than $150 billion every year to

:37:55.:37:58.

subsidise this green economy that Paul is telling us is already

:37:59.:38:01.

effective. No, it only works because we are putting lots of money into

:38:02.:38:05.

it. We have got to us, are we getting much climate benefit out of

:38:06.:38:12.

it? The answer is no, of a next 25 years the International energy

:38:13.:38:15.

agency estimate will be spending $3 trillion just for subsidising

:38:16.:38:20.

inefficient soul and wind. By the end of that time we will have a tiny

:38:21.:38:25.

fraction, less than 3%. If we believe what Paul is saying, it's

:38:26.:38:35.

not going to make much difference, the Americans leaving. The rest of

:38:36.:38:38.

the world will carry on with this, and that is the fact. You're not

:38:39.:38:41.

going to get rid of it just by letting the second biggest emitter

:38:42.:38:43.

in the world leave. There is a couple of things we need to realise.

:38:44.:38:46.

One is, long-term trading has already stumbled at the first

:38:47.:38:50.

beginning when the US leaves. But also we have a situation where many

:38:51.:38:53.

developing countries have signed up basically because they were promised

:38:54.:38:58.

$100 billion per year starting in 2020. There's no chance in hell that

:38:59.:39:02.

is ever going to happen, so they are also going to start considering, do

:39:03.:39:06.

we want expensive, inefficient green technology, or do we want the cheap.

:39:07.:39:10.

Fuel economy? What we really need to understand is, we're doing a repeat

:39:11.:39:17.

of the Kyodo treaty. Back in the 1990s everybody told us that Kyodo

:39:18.:39:21.

was the solution. We knew that it wasn't but we wasted 15 years. I

:39:22.:39:24.

worry we are going to do the same thing with Paris. Paul, do you think

:39:25.:39:29.

the US, if it does leave now, we'll ever find itself wanting to come

:39:30.:39:32.

back into this thing? First, let me say that you have heard a lot of

:39:33.:39:38.

incorrect alternative facts and Bjorn, in particular about the cost

:39:39.:39:44.

of green energy, which is now cheaper than fossil fuels in many

:39:45.:39:48.

parts of the world. I think it would be very hard for the US to claw

:39:49.:39:53.

itself back from a second departure from the international stage on

:39:54.:39:58.

climate change. And most of the costs of withdrawing will fall on

:39:59.:40:01.

the United States in the form of a void and market opportunities. But

:40:02.:40:07.

also we are the second largest emitter in the world. Our emissions

:40:08.:40:12.

matter. If we stall out instead of continuing to aggressively reduce

:40:13.:40:15.

emissions, the biggest impact of all will be on the poorest and most

:40:16.:40:19.

honourable in the world. That's why you hear a unanimous chorus from

:40:20.:40:22.

those countries urging the Trump administration to stay in the

:40:23.:40:26.

agreement. Paul and Bjorn, thank you. We need to leave it there. That

:40:27.:40:31.

is it for this evening. Almost. Because we have a final piece of

:40:32.:40:35.

political argument for you. But it's not a political argument as you know

:40:36.:40:40.

it. Good politicians need to be good storytellers. They need tails and

:40:41.:40:43.

anecdotes to make their arguments. For the next few nights we have

:40:44.:40:47.

Asuncion your politicians to tell us a story. One preferably with a

:40:48.:40:52.

point. It is up to them to interpret their brief. The story can be true

:40:53.:40:57.

or false, abstract or literal, personal or political, just as long

:40:58.:41:01.

as it is a story. It is for those of us brought up on Jackanory. We're

:41:02.:41:06.

starting with the Lib Dems and Vince Cable's bedtime tale. Goodbye.

:41:07.:41:15.

Once upon a time, there was a prince called David. And he ruled well with

:41:16.:41:26.

a team of very wise advisors. But one day he decided he wanted to roll

:41:27.:41:31.

on his own. So he got rid of his advisers, and he sought help from a

:41:32.:41:36.

snake oil salesmen. In a far-away country called Australia. And the

:41:37.:41:44.

snake oil salesmen created for him a special chaos proof armour. And he

:41:45.:41:48.

told him to wear it at all times. And the Prince's sycophantic

:41:49.:41:55.

advisers told him that if he did that, he would be completely

:41:56.:42:01.

infallible. So to prove his strength he decided to wage war on a

:42:02.:42:05.

rebellious tribe in a place called Farage land. And he went into

:42:06.:42:14.

battle, and he lost. His once United Kingdom started to break apart. The

:42:15.:42:20.

currency collapsed, merchants and craftsmen moved away to other lands.

:42:21.:42:25.

And he was forced to resign. And he went to live in a remote forest. A

:42:26.:42:31.

new leader was chosen called Princess Theresa, she wanted to

:42:32.:42:39.

prove her strength, so she made peace with Farage land and decided

:42:40.:42:45.

to go to war with another tribe, called the Euros. And as she

:42:46.:42:50.

prepared for battle, she had a call from the same snake oil salesman

:42:51.:42:55.

from Australia. And what he said to her is that you should wear my

:42:56.:43:04.

special improved chaos proof armour. And he said, if you wear this in

:43:05.:43:08.

battle, you're bound to win. She hesitated, and thought. And then she

:43:09.:43:11.

said... Yes. Hello there, good evening. Tomorrow

:43:12.:43:24.

morning we start off at 14 degrees

:43:25.:43:26.

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