Browse content similar to 12/06/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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There was some careful manoeuvring in Downing Street today, | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
Maybe you can stay, but something'll have to change. | :00:10. | :00:20. | |
And we're not just talking about the cats. | :00:21. | :00:31. | |
Yes - after the Tories fall to earth, everything is up in the air. | :00:32. | :00:34. | |
What of their manifesto and of their Brexit will remain - | :00:35. | :00:37. | |
and what will leave, as hung parliament politics bites? | :00:38. | :00:39. | |
Some MPs hoping for a benign Brexit are pinning their hopes | :00:40. | :00:42. | |
on an unlikely alliance at Westminster. | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
-- others of course say that the referendum was definitive. | :00:49. | :00:56. | |
In no way does this election mean an opportunity to somehow go behind | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
that referendum result, and somehow turn the tables | :01:00. | :01:01. | |
Is it soft or hard, or something in between? | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
We'll hear from a prominent Brexiteer and Remainer. | :01:05. | :01:06. | |
France's President Macron has a new party, and it seems to be | :01:07. | :01:11. | |
dominating French politics - at the expense of the socialists. | :01:12. | :01:13. | |
What are the lessons for us, and the implications for Europe? | :01:14. | :01:15. | |
And Katie Razzall has gone back to the very start | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
of Theresa May's campaign, to find out just what went | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
Do you feel that you were very instrumental in what's | :01:21. | :01:26. | |
I feel like we've caused it, because we've gone from having such | :01:27. | :01:33. | |
a small turnout amongst 18-24-year-olds to | :01:34. | :01:35. | |
For better or worse, hung parliaments offer an excuse | :01:36. | :01:47. | |
to parties to jettison the difficult promises made in their manifesto. | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
We saw that in the Tory-Lib Dem coalition of 2010. | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
We're seeing the Tories prune away bits of their manifesto now, | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
But the really big question hanging over Westminster is whether our hung | :01:58. | :02:04. | |
parliament means the Tories will change their much | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
It was set out in a speech in January, in a White Paper | :02:10. | :02:18. | |
in February, and in a letter to the EU in March - | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
The vision was not much debated in the election, | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
but it's hard to say it got an uproarious thumbs | :02:27. | :02:28. | |
And most MPs want a more flexible Brexit, including possibly the DUP. | :02:29. | :02:35. | |
Our political editor Nick Watt is here. | :02:36. | :02:37. | |
An important political Bay, Nick, as everyone gets over the result. Take | :02:38. | :02:43. | |
us through the events of the day. She convened at political Cabinet | :02:44. | :02:52. | |
today ahead of a meeting of the govern -- Government Cabinet | :02:53. | :02:54. | |
tomorrow. Keeping with the same spirit of those Cabinet | :02:55. | :02:58. | |
appointments, mainly confirming the same people in the same places, and | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
when there is a vacancy achieving a balance between Bremainers and | :03:03. | :03:13. | |
Leavers. Then the 1922 committee of MPs, as she recovered some, but by | :03:14. | :03:19. | |
no means all, for a authority by apology for the election setback, | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
saying "I got us into this mess, I will get us out of it." I have to | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
say that went down well. She seems to have had a good day, stabilise | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
things took a bit. To what extent is the support she is getting just | :03:33. | :03:35. | |
because everybody is very tired and we want to get on with things? And | :03:36. | :03:41. | |
how really durable is it, do you think? At the risk of sounding like | :03:42. | :03:46. | |
an old veteran, I have to say I can spot a fake support by politicians, | :03:47. | :03:49. | |
and I was outside the committee meeting today when the Prime | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
Minister came out then the MPs came out, and MPs genuinely thought she | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
had done a good job by showing contrition and then pledging to | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
govern in a more open way. Interestingly, one minister told me | :04:03. | :04:05. | |
he thought the Prime Minister had been impressive and funny, but then | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
this minister said, "Why didn't we see that side of her during the | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
election? " so she has bought herself time to start the Brexit | :04:15. | :04:19. | |
negotiations and possibly to see them through, but every Tory I spoke | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
to will not budge on this fundamental point. Theresa May | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
cannot lead the Conservative Party into the next general election. But | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
the big question really, as you were saying, where does this all leave | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
Brexit? This is what I found out today... | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
A few short weeks ago, are hard Brexit seemed to be on the cards. | :04:41. | :04:49. | |
Now the voters have had their say, and, yes, a soft Brexit is coming | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
into view. Under Theresa May's original Brexit plan there would be | :04:54. | :04:58. | |
no halfway house, the UK would abandon membership of the Single | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
Market and most of the customs union. If Brussels tables | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
unreasonable demands, the UK would also be prepared to walk away | :05:07. | :05:08. | |
without a deal. Downing Street insists there is no change to its | :05:09. | :05:14. | |
plan. But the Prime Minister Renaud has to take account of the new | :05:15. | :05:23. | |
factors. A contingent of 13 Scottish MPs, whose leader Ruth Davidson is | :05:24. | :05:35. | |
calling for an open Brexit, the Tories' DUP partners who want a | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
frictionless border in Ireland, and a rejuvenated Labour Party who is | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
now talking about remaining in a reformed single market and Customs | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
union. Ruth Davidson told the Prime Minister and the Government must | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
push for what she called an open Brexit. I'm suggesting the | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
Conservative Party works with those both within the House of Commons and | :05:54. | :06:00. | |
indeed with people without, to ensure that as we leave the EU we | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
have a Brexit that works with the economy and put that first, and I | :06:04. | :06:06. | |
think there was a real sense around the Cabinet table today that, as you | :06:07. | :06:10. | |
would expect, from centre-right politicians, that is the primacy we | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
are looking for. And the leader of the Scottish Tories also believes | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
the party should be reaching out across the spectrum on Brexit. | :06:19. | :06:27. | |
Labour agrees, and now appears able to water down no suggestion the UK | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
would be able to leave the Single Market. We want something that works | :06:31. | :06:35. | |
for Britain, for our businesses and communities. That means, as we have | :06:36. | :06:38. | |
said, the benefits of the Single Market and the customs union. That | :06:39. | :06:46. | |
is low or no tariffs, no customs barriers, and alignment of | :06:47. | :06:49. | |
regulations. How that is achieved as part of this negotiation but the | :06:50. | :06:52. | |
criticism of the Government is that it took all those options of Mike | :06:53. | :06:56. | |
the table. I'm reformed membership of the Single Market without any | :06:57. | :06:59. | |
change at all is not compatible with leaving EU -- I'm | :07:00. | :07:07. | |
this Arlene Foster, leader of the DUP, is due to meet the Prime | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
Minister tomorrow, to buy to make an arrangement to sustain the Tories in | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
office. A number of Cabinet ministers are reportedly saying in | :07:18. | :07:20. | |
private that the DUP, which is to the right on social issues, may | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
provide them with cover to push for a softer Brexit. This Tory told me | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
some ministers who have been wary of talking out on Brexit believe the | :07:31. | :07:33. | |
DUP will give them a chance to slip through something more palatable to | :07:34. | :07:40. | |
them. The DUP takes a pragmatic approach, in terms of its dealings | :07:41. | :07:45. | |
with the Irish Republic, so they want unfettered trade, they don't | :07:46. | :07:48. | |
want tariffs on goods across the border, and they don't want a hard | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
border. The DUP position is helpful to the Conservatives in terms of | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
managing Brexit. I think previously what the position was that the | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
reddish Government would work with Irish government in a soft Brexit -- | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
the British Government would work with the Irish government on a soft | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
Brexit, but now they have the DUP on board in terms of managing a softer | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
Brexit. DUP sources told Newsnight they have no quibble with the Prime | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
Minister's original Brexit plan, and leading Tory Brexit figures are | :08:18. | :08:22. | |
confident their vision is safe. We have 85% of the electorate voting | :08:23. | :08:25. | |
for Brexit supporting parties and for me that vote of confidence in | :08:26. | :08:30. | |
the direction of travel Theresa May is taking us in when it comes to | :08:31. | :08:36. | |
honour that. In no way does this election mean an opportunity to | :08:37. | :08:40. | |
somehow go behind that referendum result and somehow turn the tables | :08:41. | :08:43. | |
on the British people, because that would be completely wrong. Britain's | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
political landscape has been transformed by the surprise result | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
of the snap general election. Pro-Europeans are hoping a hard | :08:55. | :08:58. | |
Brexit will be the first victim, but Leave campaigners believe they still | :08:59. | :09:01. | |
retain trump cards. Nick Watt. Well, there is a live and lively | :09:02. | :09:04. | |
debate going on inside the Tory Parliamentary Party, | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
but it's not one that they're that But let's discuss now with Tory MEP | :09:08. | :09:10. | |
Daniel Hannan and Neil Carmichael, who was a Tory MP and a leading | :09:11. | :09:19. | |
proponent of a softer Brexit I will start if I made with Daniel | :09:20. | :09:33. | |
Hannan. I just want to examine Daniel Hannan's views at the moment. | :09:34. | :09:39. | |
Mr Hannan, a lot of people looking for compromises and a slightly | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
softer Brexit. I just want to ask, would it be acceptable to you if | :09:44. | :09:46. | |
that's part of this we left the Single Market but stayed in the | :09:47. | :09:49. | |
customs union so they did not need to be a border between the north and | :09:50. | :09:51. | |
south of Ireland, car companies could trade back and forwards across | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
the border? I think that would be a very bizarre way of interpreting and | :09:58. | :10:03. | |
open Brexit. Open Brexit by all means means maximising our trade | :10:04. | :10:05. | |
links with the rest of the EU, but it also means being able to trade | :10:06. | :10:12. | |
with the rest of the world. Now, even the EFTA countries, Norway and | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
Switzerland and so on, they have partial membership of the Single | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
Market, but even they are outside the customs union, and so they are | :10:20. | :10:25. | |
able to sign free arrangements with China, Japan, and the growing | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
economies, and if we are looking to long term that is where we need to | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
be. A lot of people have ruled out being in the Single Market. The | :10:33. | :10:35. | |
second best for those people as being in the customs union. Is that | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
something you could swallow... I can see you don't think it is a good | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
idea and would rather it wasn't, but could you swallow it as an idea? To | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
be honest I think some of those people are just grabbing the | :10:47. | :10:56. | |
totemically at things. I've never really got this idea that the whole | :10:57. | :11:01. | |
country is divided down the middle. Leavers and Bremainers our | :11:02. | :11:03. | |
compatriots who want the best. I think we agree whether we voted left | :11:04. | :11:13. | |
remain, we want military arrangements, commercial | :11:14. | :11:14. | |
arrangements, we want that with our allies, we want to keep those bits | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
of the current deal working, and that could include EU programmes, | :11:19. | :11:21. | |
and I don't think anyone is against that in principle, but we want to do | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
it on the basis of getting the best possible deal for us, and frankly | :11:26. | :11:32. | |
that means... Getting the best possible deal, yes, everyone agrees | :11:33. | :11:35. | |
with that. So you would not buy the customs union. Is there any | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
flexibility in your mind about the jurisdiction of the European Court | :11:39. | :11:46. | |
of justice, the ECJ? It may be helpful in the negotiation to say | :11:47. | :11:50. | |
that ECJ, this European Court, can govern our aviation agreements, or | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
for example could govern the nuclear materials? Is that something you | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
could tolerate or accept at all? The EU doesn't do that with any other | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
non-EU member state. Could you tolerate it, could you... Is that | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
Kaymer? Why would we go in wanting a worse deal than Switzerland, Norway, | :12:12. | :12:14. | |
Serbia, every other European country. That would be a bizarre | :12:15. | :12:20. | |
position the way you can get around that issue and make it work to the | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
advantage of both sides, is to do what the Swiss have done. To say, | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
you'll have your court, will have hours. Where there is a plain | :12:30. | :12:35. | |
interest in the same policy are harmonised outcome, we will simply | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
do that through a bilateral treaty, so we will not be inviting foreign | :12:39. | :12:41. | |
jurisdiction but the outcome will be the same. The Swiss have replicated | :12:42. | :12:48. | |
85-90% of the contents of the Single Market, including the real big one, | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
the discrimination on goods or services on threads of origin, but | :12:53. | :12:55. | |
they do that by bilateral treaties and domestic legislation. You are | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
veering towards the Swiss option but by and large are not sounding very | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
compromising. Do you think Theresa May, with no parliamentary majority, | :13:04. | :13:08. | |
should for example reach out to the other political parties, reach out | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
to Labour and even the Liberal Democrats and say, look, let's see | :13:12. | :13:14. | |
if we can foster a Brexit that's its 85% of the voters of this country, | :13:15. | :13:20. | |
because we got 85% of the voters in this election? Do you think she | :13:21. | :13:23. | |
could do that or she should only do that if we all agree to do it on her | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
terms? No, I do think we should be reaching out. I have said ever since | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
the vote, it was a 48-52 vote, not a mandate for severing all your links. | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
That is a mandate for a phased gradual repatriation of power. We | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
will end up with a deal that is almost by definition... It will go | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
too far for some people and not far enough for others, but we should aim | :13:47. | :13:49. | |
for a deal all sides can at least live with and I think that will mean | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
keeping a lot of the current links we have with the EU were those | :13:53. | :13:55. | |
working, but what people have been calling the Brexit option, the EFTA | :13:56. | :14:05. | |
tape option, even that leaves us with our farms, fisheries, defence | :14:06. | :14:08. | |
policy, and I think we can do better than that, but even that is clearly | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
becoming sovereign and having our own jurisdiction. Nobody is | :14:13. | :14:18. | |
seriously suggesting we should have ECJ ruling is still telling us what | :14:19. | :14:22. | |
to do when we have left. Thank you for that. Neil Carmichael, let me | :14:23. | :14:25. | |
talk to you. What is your favourite option at this point? How would you | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
like Theresa May's Brexit to change? First of all we voted to leave the | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
European Union, so what I am about to say does not question that, but I | :14:35. | :14:37. | |
think we need to be more realistic in the way in which we go forward, | :14:38. | :14:41. | |
and going towards it softer Brexit is clearly an object of mine and of | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
many, because we need proper trade relationships and we need to have | :14:47. | :14:49. | |
those... Do you accept free movement of people has two go? Many have said | :14:50. | :14:55. | |
that as the starting assumption for all of this, do you buy that? | :14:56. | :15:01. | |
If you take the university sector, that wouldn't be helpful for | :15:02. | :15:06. | |
existing students or members of staff from the EU in our country. | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
That is a sort of thing we have to think about. Free movement is a bit | :15:10. | :15:15. | |
like pregnancy, you have it or you don't, do you believe in free | :15:16. | :15:18. | |
movement or acts that has to go? I accept the country has voted against | :15:19. | :15:24. | |
free movement. So the Norway option is out because the Norway option has | :15:25. | :15:28. | |
free movement? It has free movement but I don't think we need to rule | :15:29. | :15:32. | |
out the Norway option just because of that reason. I think there are | :15:33. | :15:37. | |
other things... Are you hoping the EU will offer us some other | :15:38. | :15:39. | |
concession on free movement that allows us something close to the | :15:40. | :15:44. | |
Norway option? Yes, I think that's the direction we should be going in. | :15:45. | :15:47. | |
I hear from business increasingly that is the preferred option. The | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
only thing they've ever said is if you wannabe in the single market, | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
you have to have free movement. People have been saying in the last | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
few days, maybe they'll give us an emergency brake and the Norway | :16:00. | :16:06. | |
option. You would love that? I would, but your clip talking about | :16:07. | :16:10. | |
the DUP raised the issue about the border and how the attitude of the | :16:11. | :16:13. | |
DUP might be different with the Brexiteers. Do you think, if you'd | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
been in Parliament, and there are a few like you in the Conservative | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
Party, and some who are not as extreme as you. I'm not normally | :16:24. | :16:31. | |
described as extreme! Enthusiastic. Would you use parliamentary muscle, | :16:32. | :16:34. | |
because basically you'd always have a balance of power, would you use | :16:35. | :16:38. | |
parliamentary muscle to humiliate your own government to soften | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
Brexit? I think what we should be doing is reaching out to other | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
political parties and other stakeholders, because we have to | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
understand that this is not just an objective of hard Brexiteers. This | :16:52. | :16:54. | |
is a wider question and it needs to be dealt with in a wider way. I | :16:55. | :16:59. | |
understand that, but would you vote against, you know, important motions | :17:00. | :17:05. | |
of your government to soften the Brexit? You voted for Article 50. I | :17:06. | :17:12. | |
did. There will be lots of legislation, rip your bills and | :17:13. | :17:16. | |
suchlike, would you vote, use your parliamentary muscle and you'd have | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
more if you were in Westminster because there is a very small | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
majority. I think that leverage that is now available to colleagues of | :17:25. | :17:29. | |
mine and DUP and so on is much higher than before. So yes, there is | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
potential here, but we're not talking about voting against the | :17:36. | :17:39. | |
government essentially. What we are trying to do here is have a serious | :17:40. | :17:44. | |
discussion about moving the agenda away from purely a hard Brexit | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
towards something more reasonable. Last one, you lost your seat on | :17:49. | :17:55. | |
Thursday. I did. It was a seat that was considered Remainer. Do you | :17:56. | :18:02. | |
think Theresa May's Brexit lost youth vote? I think I lost the vote | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
for a number of reasons, one of them was the manifesto on one of them is | :18:07. | :18:10. | |
holding the general election at all on one of them indeed was Brexit. I | :18:11. | :18:13. | |
think the public generally were looking at the situation and | :18:14. | :18:20. | |
painting us as basically obsessed with Brexit and a hard Brexit. A lot | :18:21. | :18:24. | |
of people in my constituency certainly didn't want that. They | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
were not willing to attach their vote to my party and therefore to | :18:28. | :18:34. | |
give it to me. I think that was a real difficulty during the general | :18:35. | :18:37. | |
election, for a lot of my colleagues. Neil Carmichael and | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
Daniel Hannan, thank you very much indeed. | :18:41. | :18:43. | |
So, there was another election this week, in France. | :18:44. | :18:45. | |
With Emmanuel Macron now comfortably ensconced as president there, | :18:46. | :18:47. | |
his new political party is fighting elections for the National | :18:48. | :18:50. | |
Assembly, and in the first round, they did well. | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
It's evidence by the way that traction matters in politics - | :18:54. | :18:56. | |
Macron's success in one election seems to have bolstered his | :18:57. | :18:58. | |
In fact, his La Republique en Marche party is set to get three-quarters | :18:59. | :19:06. | |
of the seats in the assembly - the kind of majority it once looked | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
It's been an extraordinary year in France, for reasons very | :19:11. | :19:13. | |
different to those preoccupying us here. | :19:14. | :19:16. | |
He only became President last month - the youngest leader in the G7. | :19:17. | :19:21. | |
His party didn't exist 18 months ago. | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
But here's the astonishing map of the leaders in each area | :19:26. | :19:30. | |
in yesterday's election - Macron's party is in orange. | :19:31. | :19:33. | |
And in blue, Macron's nemesis, the Front National. | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
It had the reverse experience, finding that failure | :19:37. | :19:39. | |
begets more failure - 13% of the vote yesterday. | :19:40. | :19:43. | |
And most striking, the Socialist Party - | :19:44. | :19:45. | |
In Macron's favour is a perception he's been doing quite well. | :19:46. | :19:54. | |
He's had the firmest grip on how to deal with Donald Trump. | :19:55. | :19:57. | |
He's also the man who's spoken gay rights to Putin in public. | :19:58. | :20:03. | |
For now, Macron is the man with momentum, and he's using it | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
to try and rebuild the French alliance with Germany; the one that | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
allowed France to dominate the EU for all those years, | :20:10. | :20:11. | |
Now, let's not exaggerate - Macron's liberal globalism | :20:12. | :20:21. | |
is not to everyone's taste in France at all. | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
And this is just the first round of two. | :20:26. | :20:29. | |
But what does Macron's dominance of French politics | :20:30. | :20:30. | |
tell us about Brexit, and the UK? | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
I'm joined by Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times and Pauline Bock | :20:34. | :20:36. | |
Pauline, why is the guy doing so well do you think? Well, he has done | :20:37. | :20:49. | |
a very good campaign, and to be fair it's not like he's done so well | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
rather than the others have done quite terribly. He defeated Marine | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
le Pen, was seen as his biggest opponent during the campaign. This | :20:58. | :21:02. | |
socialists are in total disarray, they were the ones in government | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
with Francois Hollande. The won a majority in the Parliament as well, | :21:07. | :21:12. | |
in 2012, and yesterday they lost, they won only 7% of the vote. They | :21:13. | :21:19. | |
will lose 200 seats, the sort of thing that you think in a | :21:20. | :21:23. | |
parliamentary election can't happen. It can apparently, and it does. The | :21:24. | :21:27. | |
others are not doing so well either, on the left as well. Is that because | :21:28. | :21:34. | |
the left are split between men and shone on the other side. It probably | :21:35. | :21:43. | |
is. Mellon shone was the hard left handed and they never reached an | :21:44. | :21:46. | |
accord, they tried several times but it didn't work. If you add up both | :21:47. | :21:53. | |
their percentages you could have... Could have had one in the second | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
round. Could have. The Financial Times likes Macron, did you regret | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
we don't have one here? It was pretty remarkable for the whole | :22:05. | :22:07. | |
British self-image. We've seen France as in terrible political | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
disarray and Britain pretty solid and centrist for a number of years | :22:12. | :22:15. | |
and now it has flipped. They have a kind of Blairite as their president, | :22:16. | :22:21. | |
sweeping all before him, as Blair did in 2007, and our politics is | :22:22. | :22:25. | |
spinning off to the far left and Brexit right. Let's talk about | :22:26. | :22:33. | |
Europe. The Macron vision is terribly pro-European. One wonders | :22:34. | :22:37. | |
if the French will stomach is integration, his view of the world. | :22:38. | :22:42. | |
Sure, there's a long history of French scepticism as well. Macron on | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
the night he was elected marched out onto the side to the European | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
anthem, not the French anthem. He is an integration West and I think he | :22:52. | :22:58. | |
feels he has the momentum behind him now. Unfortunately for Britain it is | :22:59. | :23:01. | |
quite important for him to demonstrate that leaving the EU, | :23:02. | :23:05. | |
which is what Marine le Pen seem to be flirting with, is a really bad | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
idea. So there's no way I think he's going to make it easy for Britain. | :23:11. | :23:13. | |
You are talking earlier about maybe we could move toward a soft exit. I | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
think Theresa May would love him to make a gesture tomorrow when they | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
meet, but I don't think he will give him anything. It's important for | :23:24. | :23:27. | |
domestic political purposes and for his vision of Europe that Brexit | :23:28. | :23:32. | |
fails. We always used to think of the French and German alliance as | :23:33. | :23:35. | |
the motor of the European Union, before we had the ten Eastern | :23:36. | :23:37. | |
European countries coming in and shifting the whole gravity away from | :23:38. | :23:44. | |
the rest. Do you think you can sell? Do you think he can rebuild it and | :23:45. | :23:49. | |
sell it to the French people? Yes, I think he can, I think he's already | :23:50. | :23:55. | |
doing that. As you said, he marched out to the European anthem. Did they | :23:56. | :24:00. | |
like that? They did, they make fun of it because that's what they do in | :24:01. | :24:06. | |
France but I think their date -- they did. There has been some | :24:07. | :24:09. | |
scepticism in France, but we have the euro, we have the Borders. I | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
come from the country of three borders, Luxembourg, France and | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
Germany, so it doesn't work the same way, it's not just Britain on its | :24:21. | :24:24. | |
island. Because of that he can work with that and he's already doing | :24:25. | :24:28. | |
that. During his campaign he met with Angela Merkel in Berlin. The | :24:29. | :24:32. | |
person from his team who made this meeting possible is now Minister of | :24:33. | :24:41. | |
defence. She is fluent in German. His Prime Minister is also fluent in | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
German. His death will be sending messages to Germany. -- he's | :24:46. | :24:50. | |
definitely sending messages to Germany. Bad for Brexit. Why? One of | :24:51. | :24:57. | |
the arguments going round was Macron's has won, the Front National | :24:58. | :25:00. | |
has been defeated, they don't have to worry about populism on the | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
continent any more, so they don't have to punish Britain for leaving | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
the EU, they can be more relaxed. You are arguing the opposite? I | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
think it Macron takes a long-term view you cannot assume all those | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
Eurosceptic forces are dead for ever. He has to prove Brexit is a | :25:18. | :25:21. | |
bad idea. Equally, if he wants to push for a more integration with | :25:22. | :25:26. | |
Stewart, Britain has been a brake on that, it's been a bore. The Brits | :25:27. | :25:30. | |
being out makes it much easier to go to Berlin and say, let's get that | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
Franco German partnership working together again and go for it. I | :25:36. | :25:38. | |
think there are questions about whether in the long run the Germans | :25:39. | :25:42. | |
really will make the moves Macron wants, decree on the transferred | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
union, transferring money around the EU. I think they are still pretty | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
hesitant about that. But it is probably his best chance, now, to | :25:49. | :25:54. | |
get it done. We will leave it there. Thank you both very much. | :25:55. | :25:57. | |
Four theories as to why the Tories slipped back last Thursday. | :25:58. | :26:00. | |
One, youthquake - Corbyn engaged the young. | :26:01. | :26:03. | |
Two, Remainer revenge - pro-EU voters turned away | :26:04. | :26:06. | |
Three, the populist uprising continues - | :26:07. | :26:10. | |
disgruntled voters saw Corbyn as the change | :26:11. | :26:12. | |
candidate this time, and turned to him. | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
And four, Wooden Theresa - the Prime Minister failed | :26:17. | :26:19. | |
to come across as human, and voters tend to prefer humans | :26:20. | :26:21. | |
You'll have your own theories, but Katie Razzall has been | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
to Bolton to fund out more, a town where the Tories once | :26:27. | :26:29. | |
A strong and stable leadership, a strong and stable government. | :26:30. | :26:37. | |
The strong and stable leadership this country needs. | :26:38. | :26:42. | |
That mantra had its first outing in the church where Theresa May | :26:43. | :26:48. | |
It was a clear statement that she would take her fight | :26:49. | :26:54. | |
deep into Labour seats, deep into enemy territory. | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
That was seven long weeks ago, and back then the expectation | :26:59. | :27:01. | |
was they'd win big, taking seats off Labour like this one. | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
But on Thursday, that just didn't happen - | :27:06. | :27:07. | |
It's marathon day in Bolton North East. | :27:08. | :27:15. | |
This was just one of the Labour seats that failed to turn | :27:16. | :27:17. | |
blue in the landslide that never happened. | :27:18. | :27:21. | |
None of the forecasts were as bleak as this. | :27:22. | :27:24. | |
It was hard to find Bolton voters who'd been impressed. | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
It was a disaster, from start to finish. | :27:29. | :27:31. | |
From starting off in Bolton, and in Bolton North East a Labour | :27:32. | :27:39. | |
I think it summed up, that's kind of the perfect | :27:40. | :27:43. | |
metaphor for her campaign, it was completely misguided, | :27:44. | :27:44. | |
it was completely based on some sort of wild fantasy she had in her head. | :27:45. | :27:48. | |
Senior Tories in Bolton told us the fiasco over social care really | :27:49. | :27:51. | |
hurt their campaign, but for these runners getting | :27:52. | :27:53. | |
ready out of the rain, there were other factors | :27:54. | :27:55. | |
I was going to do Conservative, like I have done before, | :27:56. | :27:59. | |
but then after sitting down with my children and they looked | :28:00. | :28:02. | |
online and they did a poll and they did some other things, | :28:03. | :28:04. | |
they both decided that they both wanted to do Labour and I thought, | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
well, it's the children's future now, so I'll put my vote for them. | :28:09. | :28:14. | |
One of the stories of the campaign was the youth vote, | :28:15. | :28:17. | |
We don't know how many influenced their parents, | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
but we do know here they voted in high numbers. | :28:22. | :28:25. | |
Do you feel that you were very instrumental in what | :28:26. | :28:27. | |
I feel like we've caused it, because we've gone from having such | :28:28. | :28:33. | |
a small turnout amongst 18-24-year-olds to | :28:34. | :28:35. | |
Emily, Charlie, Dylan and Jude are 18 and at Turton high school. | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
All of them voted Labour and encouraged others to do the same. | :28:41. | :28:45. | |
I feel like a lot of posts and stuff made on Facebook, | :28:46. | :28:53. | |
a lot of them more quite comedic, which I feel like it kind | :28:54. | :28:56. | |
of resonated with the youth, it put it on a personal level, | :28:57. | :28:59. | |
I think we just wanted to show the rest of the country that we do | :29:00. | :29:04. | |
We are interested, we're not just going to sit back and let you, | :29:05. | :29:09. | |
who have had your years to do what you like the country, we're not | :29:10. | :29:12. | |
Because they don't think that young people are going to turn out | :29:13. | :29:16. | |
and vote, and I think by encouraging people to go and cast a vote, | :29:17. | :29:20. | |
I think you're challenging that and showing people that young people | :29:21. | :29:22. | |
aren't just this sort of this apathetic, silent body that | :29:23. | :29:25. | |
There was this kind of, oh they'll never turn out, | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
there's no point even appealing to them, because | :29:30. | :29:31. | |
And this shows that we do, if you actually offer us something | :29:32. | :29:35. | |
that, if you actually offer us a good deal. | :29:36. | :29:48. | |
This is Breightmet in Bolton North East. | :29:49. | :29:50. | |
The Conservatives expected Ukip voters in places | :29:51. | :29:52. | |
like this to move to them, but instead Tory councillor | :29:53. | :29:54. | |
John Walsh saw a late surge of young Labour voters | :29:55. | :29:56. | |
Their own Ukip surge never materialised. | :29:57. | :30:01. | |
Many of those who voted Ukip were the salt of the earth, | :30:02. | :30:04. | |
working-class, hard-working Bolton families. | :30:05. | :30:04. | |
They were not natural Conservatives, they were in large numbers of Labour | :30:05. | :30:07. | |
supporters who heard an attractive message from Jeremy Corbyn. | :30:08. | :30:16. | |
So Corbyn outplayed the Conservatives? | :30:17. | :30:22. | |
In that sense, yes, his campaign outplayed them. | :30:23. | :30:24. | |
Is this the worst Conservative campaign you've seen? | :30:25. | :30:27. | |
I've got to say it probably was, and it probably | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
was because it was too long, because it went off into many | :30:31. | :30:33. | |
different directions and we didn't have a focus throughout the campaign | :30:34. | :30:35. | |
It's gin fizz night at the Last Drop inn. | :30:36. | :30:39. | |
As the gin and champagne flowed, an explanation perhaps of why | :30:40. | :30:42. | |
the Tory wooing of Ukip voters didn't pay off from | :30:43. | :30:44. | |
I voted for him last time, and I voted for him in Brexit. | :30:45. | :30:50. | |
Because he's not available, I went back to Labour. | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
Because the Conservatives thought people like you might | :30:57. | :30:58. | |
Amongst voters here, Tory and non, nobody had a good word to say | :30:59. | :31:11. | |
All she had to do in this election, based on the lead that she had, | :31:12. | :31:21. | |
was just not be completely rubbish, and that's what she was. | :31:22. | :31:24. | |
No, but I think what they'll do is they'll probably form | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
a coalition if they can, and in 3-4 months, she'll be gone. | :31:30. | :31:37. | |
The Government misjudged the mood music during this campaign. | :31:38. | :31:39. | |
Two months ago they hoped a landslide would deliver them this | :31:40. | :31:42. | |
That strategy cost the Prime Minister dear. | :31:43. | :31:45. | |
Voters in Bolton, at least, now see turmoil and confusion, | :31:46. | :31:47. | |
Well, one of the central explanations for Labour's strong | :31:48. | :31:59. | |
performance last week has been the way in which Labour | :32:00. | :32:01. | |
and Mr Corbyn engaged younger voters and persuaded them to turn out | :32:02. | :32:04. | |
We've got three people who fit that description to delve deeper into why | :32:05. | :32:13. | |
this happened and whether it is now a permanent feature of our politics. | :32:14. | :32:20. | |
Abi Wilkinson is the professional commentator here, she | :32:21. | :32:22. | |
And Thorrun Govind, who is 24 and from Bolton, | :32:23. | :32:34. | |
, why did you vote? Europe Tory voter in the past? -- Thorrun, why | :32:35. | :32:49. | |
did you vote? Every day in my line of work I am seeing vulnerable | :32:50. | :32:54. | |
patients... You're a pharmacist by profession? Yes, we're helping | :32:55. | :32:58. | |
patients but the Government is not helping them and this was a real | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
vote NHS election for me. So it is about austerity and public services. | :33:04. | :33:10. | |
About the NHS. Eve, you haven't voted before so we can't say you are | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
Tory, used to be a Tory. Why did you vote for Jeremy Corbyn? Gave me | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
hope, compared to every other party who campaigned and tried to get my | :33:20. | :33:23. | |
vote, it was definitely Jeremy Corbyn who targeted the youth, | :33:24. | :33:26. | |
targeted people like me, and said this could be your country. Have you | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
always been quite political, not political at all? Started around | :33:32. | :33:38. | |
when I was about 15, my mum always kept me in the loop, but it was | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
definitely Brexit that got me into the politics. Brexit engaged you and | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
you were a Remains a porter at the time? Yes. Abi, what about you? You | :33:47. | :33:52. | |
are Labour, so we can say you are especially prone carbon? Not at all. | :33:53. | :33:57. | |
The country is not working for everyone and has not been for a | :33:58. | :34:03. | |
while. Like Eve said, we need to fund public services, we need | :34:04. | :34:07. | |
opportunities. The whole thing, for me, this idea that the country can | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
get better, our future can be better. Than the past, because at | :34:11. | :34:16. | |
the moment it feels like we are in a state of decline, employment rights | :34:17. | :34:19. | |
getting eroded, housing getting more and more unaffordable, and I just | :34:20. | :34:22. | |
think Labour offered the chance of something better. Can out whether | :34:23. | :34:30. | |
you can think of something in the Corbyn campaign that really grabbed | :34:31. | :34:38. | |
you, align, speech? It was the manifesto, the promise to halt the | :34:39. | :34:41. | |
cuts to community pharmacy. At the moment it is a 20 minute walk for | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
most people to their community pharmacy and with what the | :34:45. | :34:47. | |
Conservatives have implement and it will be much further and it is the | :34:48. | :34:50. | |
hope they are giving me. And did you believe... Not asking this in | :34:51. | :34:55. | |
negatively but did you believe everything in the manifesto, that | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
the guy will deliver all of this? Because there was quite a lot of | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
spending in there, wasn't there? I don't trust any manifesto, but I | :35:04. | :35:07. | |
have to believe on these key issues like the NHS the Labour Party have | :35:08. | :35:11. | |
shown they understand these issues. Come on, Eve, what was the moment in | :35:12. | :35:16. | |
the campaign, the line, the speech you saw our inspired by? For the | :35:17. | :35:22. | |
many, not the view. That hit me quite hard, and I like -- not the | :35:23. | :35:30. | |
few. I like how he is trying to make spending there, with tax evasion, | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
trying to get corporate tax, trying to make people earning over ?80,000 | :35:35. | :35:42. | |
pay their fair tax. He was a little bit equivocal about the EU... That | :35:43. | :35:48. | |
didn't put you off that? No, it didn't, personally, because it was | :35:49. | :35:51. | |
not as if David Cameron tried his very best. Abi, what moment in the | :35:52. | :36:02. | |
campaign, because often... I just wondered. It was the manifesto | :36:03. | :36:05. | |
launch, when I thought, oh, we could actually do it. | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
You know, I have always thought a Labour Government is better for the | :36:11. | :36:16. | |
country. I have always thought left of the Labour Party, that the Labour | :36:17. | :36:23. | |
Party had the solutions. I thought we needed a radical shake-up, but | :36:24. | :36:27. | |
then when the manifesto came out, I thought people would like this. With | :36:28. | :36:34. | |
the Corbyn thing, the same initials as Jesus Christ, JC, a bit of a | :36:35. | :36:40. | |
cult, and you have all given policy things, rather than Corbyn things. | :36:41. | :36:47. | |
Green Mackey does have a fan club, young people on social media, Jeremy | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
Corbyn, the absolute boy, he's a great guy dream act -- yes, he does | :36:51. | :36:57. | |
have a Fanclub. But undercutting that is the sense that things need | :36:58. | :37:00. | |
to change and it is possible to change things. He is not just a | :37:01. | :37:08. | |
figurehead. It is not just about him. This is about people who have | :37:09. | :37:11. | |
bold ideas and believe it is possible for things to get better, | :37:12. | :37:16. | |
and necessary. Eve, a lot of people have said to some extent, trying to | :37:17. | :37:19. | |
dismiss the durability of the kind of movement that has emerged, I | :37:20. | :37:23. | |
suppose, that it is all about student fees, and whoever throws | :37:24. | :37:26. | |
that at them, those that are the largest number of people, they win | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
the election. I think you will see, no, it is not about student fees, | :37:31. | :37:36. | |
but was it about student fees? My vote was not about student fees, | :37:37. | :37:40. | |
because I decided early on I would vote Labour, but he came out with | :37:41. | :37:43. | |
the student fees and it kind of sold it for me. And you believed it, that | :37:44. | :37:48. | |
they would get rid of student fees? I'm not saying they will not, but | :37:49. | :37:51. | |
you thought it was credible, before people have said that and not | :37:52. | :37:55. | |
delivered it. I was hesitant that it would happen in 2017, that early on. | :37:56. | :38:00. | |
Perhaps 2018, but I believed him. When he said he would scrap them | :38:01. | :38:06. | |
eventually. OK, now, the other interesting aspect of this, and this | :38:07. | :38:10. | |
sounds like a ghastly middle-aged man peering into the lives of | :38:11. | :38:13. | |
younger people and I hate this kind of thing, but will you get your | :38:14. | :38:16. | |
media from? Where you get your news from? What do you do? Is an all | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
social media? Are you reading newspapers, what kind of stuff are | :38:24. | :38:30. | |
you getting on social media? I am an avid tweeter all the time, mainly | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
about pharmacy but also about politics, and I think my Twitter | :38:35. | :38:38. | |
feed has changed recently. I was following a lot of pro-Tory feeds | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
and suddenly it has become all about Labour, and I think... There is | :38:42. | :38:45. | |
nothing beats a Sunday morning with a newspaper, but maybe I'm a bit | :38:46. | :38:49. | |
old-fashioned like that. All right, Eve, what do you do? No newspapers | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
for me. I don't read those kind of things. I am very much a social | :38:55. | :39:00. | |
media person. The Canary... I get a lot of social media news from | :39:01. | :39:02. | |
Twitter. Personally I don't trust this book. It is more of an old | :39:03. | :39:08. | |
person's kind of... When you see from Twitter, what do you mean? Is | :39:09. | :39:15. | |
it from... Clips from Newsnight, or wild unsourced allegation from | :39:16. | :39:21. | |
somebody? It is fact a lot of the time, stating facts, with links and | :39:22. | :39:25. | |
evidence behind it. Do you read it carefully? You don't just accept it? | :39:26. | :39:28. | |
I don't want a fact without evidence. I think one of the most | :39:29. | :39:33. | |
interesting things about this election is how much money the | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
Conservatives spent on social media, and how the Labour Party managed to | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
reach for more people with a fraction of the spending, just | :39:41. | :39:43. | |
because young people... And older people, they were so enthusiastic | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
about what they were offering they were sharing it, and showing their | :39:49. | :39:54. | |
friends. I think they spent ?2000 on their Facebook adverts, and reached | :39:55. | :39:58. | |
12.7 million people in the last week of Facebook adverts, whereas the | :39:59. | :40:00. | |
Tories spent ?1 million on Facebook and did not have the same reach. | :40:01. | :40:04. | |
Thank you. Last and really important question. Come the next election, do | :40:05. | :40:11. | |
you think that you and your peers will behave in the same way as you | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
did on this one, or do you think you will revert to the type, the | :40:16. | :40:19. | |
stereotype, not going out, perhaps not being quite as engaged, do you | :40:20. | :40:25. | |
think you will stick with it? I think Corbyn has created such a | :40:26. | :40:30. | |
wave. Even if he is not there? It depends who replaces him but he | :40:31. | :40:33. | |
himself has created such a way. Would you come back to the Tories? I | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
think I would have to consider the manifesto is and what they actually | :40:38. | :40:41. | |
deliver. We could still have another election yet. But you don't like | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
paying high taxes? I don't like paying high taxes but I don't want | :40:46. | :40:49. | |
to see people suffer and I don't want a return to the nasty party. | :40:50. | :40:51. | |
Thank you all very much. Now, in a story that was seemingly | :40:52. | :40:53. | |
designed for the great pun-machine that is Twitter, | :40:54. | :40:56. | |
we learned today that there will be no goats harmed in the writing | :40:57. | :40:59. | |
of the Queen's Speech. The parchment on which it is written | :41:00. | :41:06. | |
is called goats skin parchment but it turns out that is, in fact, | :41:07. | :41:09. | |
not made of the skin of goats. So whenever the speech takes place, | :41:10. | :41:12. | |
there were at least some celebrations ringing | :41:13. | :41:15. | |
out across the country. We want to be free to do | :41:16. | :41:16. | |
what we want to do, That's what we're going to do, | :41:17. | :41:25. | |
we're going to have a party. | :41:26. | :41:31. |