26/07/2017 Newsnight


26/07/2017

With Evan Davis. The end of petrol cars. Plus Emily Maitlis reports from Washington, Grenfell Tower, trade deals and Anita Roddick's daughter on her mother's death.


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Transcript


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Time was, you would never have believed we could exist

:00:00.:00:00.

Now it's official policy that we will.

:00:07.:00:14.

We'll look ahead to how motor transport will work after 2040.

:00:15.:00:18.

But do we need to worry a little more about our oil-polluted air

:00:19.:00:21.

What the government was required to do was to prepare air quality

:00:22.:00:27.

plans which would reduce the levels of pollution in the

:00:28.:00:30.

Something which works in the next 23 years is not going to reduce those

:00:31.:00:35.

pollution levels in our towns and cities in the next

:00:36.:00:37.

We'll test the government's ideas for cleaning up our atmosphere.

:00:38.:00:43.

In the midst of a week of drama here at the White House, I'm joined by

:00:44.:00:47.

one of Donald Trump's key lieutenants, Sebastian Gorka.

:00:48.:00:48.

What has the President achieved in the

:00:49.:00:50.

Ten years ago, Anita Roddick, the environmentalist and founder

:00:51.:00:56.

of the Body Shop died, one of the most high profile victims

:00:57.:00:59.

We hear from her daughter Sam for the first time.

:01:00.:01:04.

She was pretty clear that she got it through the

:01:05.:01:08.

And, you know, I could really hear the

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vulnerability in her voice because my mum really feared death.

:01:17.:01:26.

Was it an announcement to which there was less

:01:27.:01:31.

A ban on petrol and diesel cars to come into effect in 2040.

:01:32.:01:36.

It was designed as an answer to what you do about air quality,

:01:37.:01:39.

As fumes are killing thousands of people a year now,

:01:40.:01:44.

Some think it is actually a distraction from

:01:45.:01:48.

But there were other measures, too, and we'll discuss those shortly.

:01:49.:01:53.

And there is a sense that regardless of what government says,

:01:54.:01:56.

we may be in the latter days of oil-driven cars.

:01:57.:01:58.

Assuming we can work out where we get all the electricity

:01:59.:02:01.

Our technology editor David Grossman has been looking

:02:02.:02:04.

at the prospects for motor transport and the air we breathe.

:02:05.:02:13.

This is what is done for electric cars up to now, the convenience of

:02:14.:02:25.

pumping 400 miles of range into a car in minutes at any one of 8500

:02:26.:02:30.

service stations nationwide but change is coming by order of the

:02:31.:02:35.

government. We have to get petrol and diesel cars off our road and

:02:36.:02:40.

make sure we deal with the problems and pollution causes and beat

:02:41.:02:45.

targets. The announcement was to divide as part of the response to

:02:46.:02:50.

the air pollution crisis. The government had been ordered by the

:02:51.:02:54.

High Court to come up with a plan to cut nitrogen dioxide. There is

:02:55.:03:00.

millions to help councils cut pollution but no diesel scrappage

:03:01.:03:05.

scheme yet. I think it is a smoke screen. What it does is helps to

:03:06.:03:11.

push us towards climate change goals, encouraging manufacturers to

:03:12.:03:14.

move away from combustion engines but we think the wind is blowing

:03:15.:03:17.

that way anyway but from the point of view of air quality, it will not

:03:18.:03:23.

do the job, we need quick measures soon. Moving from a world where we

:03:24.:03:28.

burn petrol and diesel to get about to one where we don't will be a huge

:03:29.:03:34.

journey requiring the reimagining of the transport infrastructure. We

:03:35.:03:43.

have a thriving car industry in the UK and yesterday BMW announced an

:03:44.:03:46.

electric version of the Mini to be made in Oxford. Not everyone thinks

:03:47.:03:49.

the target can be met without significant jobs moving overseas.

:03:50.:03:57.

What I am not OK with his setting up electric cars by 2040, but not

:03:58.:04:05.

developing a Nasa, we do not have the capability to manufacture,

:04:06.:04:10.

engineer and design batteries, motors, inverters, infrastructure in

:04:11.:04:16.

the UK right now. Where is this extra power going to come from? In a

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recent report the National Grid estimated we could require six new

:04:24.:04:28.

power stations the size of the proposed Hinkley C nuclear power

:04:29.:04:31.

station to charge these new vehicles by 2050. This is a typical example

:04:32.:04:38.

of a charge point. This company has sold 40,000 electric car charge

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point since 2009. Although they welcome the government announcement,

:04:45.:04:50.

they do not think it ambitious. Technology is changing 30% every

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year and gets 30% cheaper each year which means the electric vehicle

:04:55.:04:59.

becomes the same price as the internal combustion engine vehicle

:05:00.:05:03.

by 2020 and after that the electric vehicle becomes cheaper than the

:05:04.:05:07.

combustion engine and when you wonder how we get to mass adoption

:05:08.:05:13.

by 2030, they are cheaper and better by 2020. The move to electric

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vehicles is one of four big changes taking place in transport.

:05:25.:05:26.

Autonomous vehicles, smart cars, big data, will combine to change the way

:05:27.:05:30.

we get about. Taxi and ride sharing apps as well as smart routing apps

:05:31.:05:34.

promise to reduce the number of cars needed in future. Cars are used 5%

:05:35.:05:41.

of the time and 80% of the time people are driving on their own. You

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would not get into a plane with 80% of the seats empty. What we need to

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do is make the road network more efficient and give people more

:05:53.:05:54.

options and I think that is what you will see in the next 20 years,

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people have more options on how to get about, not necessarily thinking,

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I need to own a car. The speed with which technology is moving is likely

:06:05.:06:08.

to impact on every aspect of our lives. By 2040, the disappearance of

:06:09.:06:14.

diesel and petrol cars might be one of the least remarkable things to

:06:15.:06:15.

happen. We asked the government

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whether the Environment Secretary or any of his junior ministers

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was available to join us I'm joined instead to discuss this

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from Brighton by Caroline Lucas, And in the studio by Martin Tett,

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who is the Conservative leader of Buckinghamshire Council

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and the Local Government Association's spokesman

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on the environment. Caroline Lucas, are you glad we have

:06:33.:06:45.

had this announcement, the 2040 deadline, or do you think it will be

:06:46.:06:50.

history by the time we get there? I think it will be history, it is too

:06:51.:06:56.

little too late. The only reason we have had it at all is because of EU

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legislation and court cases forced the UK to act but other countries

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like Norway and Germany and India are moving more quickly than we are

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towards that target, looking at 2025, 20 30. In the meantime people

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are dying now from causes related to air pollution. It is a public health

:07:18.:07:22.

emergency and we need to see the longer term target in terms of

:07:23.:07:26.

getting diesel and petrol cars off the roads but we want to see a

:07:27.:07:31.

transformation in the transport systems and I mean massive

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investment in public transport as a starter. Would you have had a diesel

:07:35.:07:43.

scrappage scheme? We think a properly funded diesel scrappage

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scheme is part of the solution, but I think this focus on just one

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element does not do justice to the whole picture and we need to have

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nothing less than a paradigms shift where we ask bigger questions about

:07:57.:08:00.

expectations about how we get from A to B in the future. We need to

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redesign our towns and cities to make it easier to get about without

:08:06.:08:10.

needing a private car all the time. We ought to be making walking and

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cycling easier and making public transport more affordable. Martin

:08:20.:08:23.

Tett, local government has to produce local plans to get rid of

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local air pollution. They are dumping this on you because they do

:08:27.:08:31.

not want to put in diesel scrappage schemes that are expensive or tell

:08:32.:08:35.

diesel owners they have to pay to drive into city centres. They are

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dumping it on you? I welcome the fact the government has focused on

:08:41.:08:44.

this and agree with Caroline that they have been forced to do this by

:08:45.:08:49.

the legal case but it is a dangerous thing. Nitrogen dioxide is dangerous

:08:50.:08:58.

to human health and the focus is welcome and local government is

:08:59.:09:01.

ready to play its part in solving the problem. We are local to people

:09:02.:09:03.

and know the solution is required. But the devil is in the detail. You

:09:04.:09:08.

have to have the right funding available at the right time to solve

:09:09.:09:12.

these issues and that can cost money. If there is a breach in a

:09:13.:09:17.

local area and somebody can say your local plan did not deal with air

:09:18.:09:21.

pollution in this area, are you sued by the lawyers who have just sued

:09:22.:09:27.

the government and won, or the government? It is a good question

:09:28.:09:31.

and I do not know the answer but what is important is we get funding

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upfront and the government is talking about 40 million. 29 areas

:09:37.:09:41.

have been targeted. We have to design the right schemes to tackle

:09:42.:09:46.

this problem. It will mean more public transport, walking and

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cycling, redesigning roads, getting rid of speed bumps. Some will take a

:09:50.:09:55.

long time to work out. Caroline said we need to be designed towns and the

:09:56.:10:00.

way we live, that sounds longer than 2040. With great respect to

:10:01.:10:05.

Caroline, redesigning existing towns is difficult. There is an historic

:10:06.:10:10.

street scene. It is not easy. Councils can look at what can be

:10:11.:10:16.

done. There may be a requirement to look at charging in some towns in

:10:17.:10:19.

terms of entry to towns and I know the government is not keen on that.

:10:20.:10:25.

Caroline, do you accept the social change you are talking about takes a

:10:26.:10:31.

long time? It does not have too. If you look at the simplest things in

:10:32.:10:36.

many European countries where for example it is normal for most kids

:10:37.:10:41.

to get to school by walking because they have the so-called walking

:10:42.:10:44.

crocodiles where they organise kids to walk together. We could be

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learning so much from what has been done and already re-engineered in

:10:49.:10:54.

places like the Netherlands and Nordic countries. We need

:10:55.:10:58.

imagination and political will and together those things can take us

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far. This is a public health emergency and we need radical

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action, more than we have seen from the government so far. Caroline, can

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you think of anything government has ever announced on a green measure

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where you have not said it is too little, too late? That it needs to

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move further and faster? The role of the Green Party is to spur on other

:11:25.:11:32.

parties and to be more ambitious. 2040, 23 years away, right now we

:11:33.:11:36.

have kids told they cannot play in playgrounds because the air

:11:37.:11:41.

pollution is too serious, in the 21st century. We ought to be in a

:11:42.:11:46.

society where kids can play safely outside, not waiting 23 years for it

:11:47.:11:47.

to happen. Thanks. We have news tonight on the causes

:11:48.:11:49.

of the fire at Grenfell Tower. We have reported the government is

:11:50.:12:01.

conducting large-scale tests on the cladding used. We know a lot of

:12:02.:12:10.

buildings have combustible cladding. The point of these tests is to work

:12:11.:12:15.

out which designs are safe or unsafe. Chris Cooke has

:12:16.:12:16.

followed this for us. You managed to obtain the results of the first

:12:17.:12:27.

test. You have to understand you can have combustible elements outside a

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tall building and it can be safe, if it is properly installed, fire

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broke, meaning having measures to stop the fire spreading. The

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question is whether... Which specific sets of design should be in

:12:41.:12:45.

use on buildings which should not. The first test was on the choice of

:12:46.:12:51.

materials at Grenfell Tower, what is called a PIR foam, a combustible

:12:52.:12:56.

plastic foam, and plastic core aluminium tiles on the outside. We

:12:57.:13:03.

went to the test centre and were allowed to film them installing, we

:13:04.:13:08.

have footage of that. It gives you a sense of the scale of how big the

:13:09.:13:16.

test is. It is a tool set. What you can see, the black horizontal strips

:13:17.:13:21.

are firebreaks that are supposed to stop the fire moving vertically and

:13:22.:13:27.

the yellow strips you can see are supposed to stop the fire moving

:13:28.:13:31.

left to right. It is a test on the choice of materials used at Grenfell

:13:32.:13:36.

Tower, installed perfectly. It is not about maybe they messed up

:13:37.:13:40.

installation and did not include firebreaks. They conducted a test.

:13:41.:13:45.

You see on the footage, all the firebreaks in place. And it burned.

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The test was an absolute failure. What does that tell us about the

:13:52.:13:57.

building industry and the way it was using tests? How important

:13:58.:14:04.

It reveals using that choice of material would never have been

:14:05.:14:11.

acceptable, and the building industry has got into the habit of

:14:12.:14:15.

using materials on tall buildings that fundamentally should not be on

:14:16.:14:20.

them. If someone followed the simple matter of the law and did a proper

:14:21.:14:26.

test over two years ago, that cladding would never be on that

:14:27.:14:29.

building. It would never have passed? It creates a record in the

:14:30.:14:36.

system that should have stopped this. Chris, thank you very much. We

:14:37.:14:46.

will talk about those chlorinated chickens and Anglo-American trade

:14:47.:14:47.

and... Well, I'd like to say

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that over in the US they are talking of nothing other

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than the opportunities for trade with the UK,

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but the President has diverted attention to other things this week

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and again today, Emily is still over We are fresh from the press briefing

:14:58.:15:08.

where President Trump said he was going to ban transgender people from

:15:09.:15:14.

the military, he is doing what many people say as progress with LGBT

:15:15.:15:18.

rights which he promised to support after the Orlando Gay massacre. He

:15:19.:15:25.

says it costs the military too much and critics say that he is playing

:15:26.:15:30.

to his base, veterans, who don't like change, many will say this was

:15:31.:15:35.

a distraction from the other things happening this week, some

:15:36.:15:40.

successfully and others not. We had Congressional hearings investigating

:15:41.:15:43.

whether there was collusion of any kind between members of his team and

:15:44.:15:48.

the Russians and the doomed health-care bill, we have heard the

:15:49.:15:53.

Senate has voted down the straight appeal of the Affordable Care Act,

:15:54.:15:58.

they have not got rid of Obamacare and the big question of what will

:15:59.:16:06.

become jazz sessions. Sean Spicer left his job and the man in charge

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of communications is Anthony Scaramucci, his first interview...

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Tell us first of all, what we should understand about the relationship

:16:24.:16:29.

with Jeff Sessions? I think those are both principles, as the

:16:30.:16:33.

communications director it would be inappropriate to get into the middle

:16:34.:16:37.

of that, this will resolve itself over the next week and what I would

:16:38.:16:43.

say to colleagues and Cabinet members is you must understand the

:16:44.:16:48.

personality of the President, he is a straight shooter, he likes to

:16:49.:16:54.

express himself and let people know how he feels, sometimes those are

:16:55.:17:00.

tough conversations. Why is he tweeting? Letting rumours take over?

:17:01.:17:05.

He is a very tough person and I mean that in a good way, trying to use

:17:06.:17:12.

the pulpit in the Oval Office and his Presidency to execute an agenda

:17:13.:17:19.

on behalf of the people. Do I think he will stay? Wait for the

:17:20.:17:24.

President. Would like to see the chess sessions staying? I do not

:17:25.:17:30.

want to interrupt the outcome, between the Attorney General and the

:17:31.:17:36.

President. I have worked with the Attorney General on the campaign, I

:17:37.:17:41.

am huge supporter of the President and his agenda but what I would say

:17:42.:17:46.

to colleagues here is have a very tough exoskeleton, have a tough

:17:47.:17:51.

backbone and they will meet... Does that mean allowing the President to

:17:52.:17:57.

be rude to you and to basically slack you in a public forum? You are

:17:58.:18:03.

from Great Britain, I am from a town on the border of Queens, the

:18:04.:18:08.

President grew up there, we have a different communication style, it is

:18:09.:18:14.

more direct, less subtle and polite but you do not think politicians in

:18:15.:18:17.

your hometown are hitting each other? Perhaps more subtly, but I

:18:18.:18:23.

like the more open approach and one thing I cannot stand about this town

:18:24.:18:29.

is the backstabbing. Where I grew up in my neighbourhood, we stab from

:18:30.:18:35.

the front, what we are doing. To me, if you can handle the personality of

:18:36.:18:39.

the President, which I happen to love, you will do great. I will not

:18:40.:18:45.

cut you off, I will talk about front stabbing. He has been front stabbed

:18:46.:18:52.

by some of the senators who voted down the repeal of Obamacare. That

:18:53.:18:58.

is Congressional setting, conversations go on, the team of

:18:59.:19:06.

rivals, it took President Lincoln many times for the abolition of

:19:07.:19:11.

slavery, that was much tougher. Even under President Obama be voted to

:19:12.:19:16.

get rid of Obamacare, only the President kept that going and under

:19:17.:19:23.

President Trump... Aged 24 months -- 22 months. We have six months so far

:19:24.:19:29.

with the President here and think of what we're trying to achieve within

:19:30.:19:35.

just one year, the President will make it so, we will replace

:19:36.:19:38.

Obamacare, you will get a level of tax reform we have not seen since

:19:39.:19:44.

1986 and we do that within 12 months and that will be remarkable. You

:19:45.:19:48.

think you will get a health care plan... ? What kind of time frame? I

:19:49.:19:57.

am living in Washington, do you live your? You are lucky. You don't live

:19:58.:20:05.

here, what happens in Washington, people say something to your face

:20:06.:20:09.

and they don't mean it. Something else behind your back. With the

:20:10.:20:13.

President it is good leadership to say what he means to the faces of

:20:14.:20:18.

people and resolve it or not. We will either reconcile or go in

:20:19.:20:21.

different directions but everybody knows how we feel. I have had tough

:20:22.:20:27.

conversations with the President, we have known each other for a very

:20:28.:20:30.

long time and he is remarkably loyal, the loyalty has to be

:20:31.:20:35.

symmetrical and good loyalty is symmetrical, you do not want a

:20:36.:20:41.

symmetrical loyalty and the people are fed up with the city so I am

:20:42.:20:46.

calling on my friends in this city, to dial things back, support the

:20:47.:20:50.

agenda for the President because it is your long-term agenda. If you

:20:51.:20:57.

were running a campaign and somebody said, we have serious dirt on your

:20:58.:21:03.

opponent from Russia, would you take that meeting? I will stand by the

:21:04.:21:06.

President's remarks, most people would. Myself included, we are

:21:07.:21:17.

political neophytes, had Donald J Trump Junior, he is a friend of

:21:18.:21:22.

mine, I know he has done absolutely nothing wrong and he will be

:21:23.:21:26.

completely exonerated. I did not say he was naive, he is inexperienced.

:21:27.:21:35.

There is a difference, inexperience is, OK, I have some curiosity... Why

:21:36.:21:40.

would you not go to somebody who is experienced and say, should I take

:21:41.:21:46.

this meeting? If you think about how phenomenal this campaign was,

:21:47.:21:51.

skeletal staff, spending less than two thirds of what President Clinton

:21:52.:21:58.

spent, that small operation, she had thousands of the country, think

:21:59.:22:03.

about how upset the middle class people wear, I came back from

:22:04.:22:08.

London, I was with the Dean of Harvard, why Brexit? All of the

:22:09.:22:11.

elites within London said they were never going to do that and I said,

:22:12.:22:16.

have you been to a Bernie Sanders rally or Donald Trump rally? That

:22:17.:22:24.

will explain. I have been to both of those rallies and I want to bring

:22:25.:22:28.

you back onto the Russian question because this is threatening to

:22:29.:22:31.

undermine every other thing the President is trying to do. I do not

:22:32.:22:37.

believe that, it is damaging short-term because there is lots of

:22:38.:22:43.

nonsense going on because this town manufactures scandals, we

:22:44.:22:48.

manufacture fake scandals so we can disrupt people, we can hit them

:22:49.:22:53.

personally. The son of the President... I am just asking, do

:22:54.:22:59.

you not find that extraordinary? It is not the town, it is Congress. She

:23:00.:23:05.

said he had a very good feeling about Jared Kushner, incredibly

:23:06.:23:11.

honest, what is happening and I love this is the elite and the media

:23:12.:23:17.

establishment who want to hit the President with Russia every day

:23:18.:23:21.

recognise there is nothing to that Russian story. The business side or

:23:22.:23:25.

the politics side or inheritance, what part of Donald Trump... There

:23:26.:23:30.

are so many things about the President. Everybody eats

:23:31.:23:37.

cheeseburgers and pizza. What are you talking about? You are coming

:23:38.:23:41.

across as elitist, I grew up in a middle-class family with a tight

:23:42.:23:47.

budget and little to no money, I spent 30 years trying to get into

:23:48.:23:51.

the global elite to serve the President and I miss that movement,

:23:52.:23:57.

I'd tunnelled myself into the elites and we had this circular

:23:58.:24:01.

conversation about what went on. Donald Trump is not an elite? He has

:24:02.:24:08.

both, he knows how to operate in the elitist world and he has empathy for

:24:09.:24:12.

the common struggle with the middle-class people and the lower

:24:13.:24:15.

middle-class people, he has something I do not have and it is

:24:16.:24:19.

embarrassing to admit this, but I missed the movement. I grew up in a

:24:20.:24:25.

middle-class family and they did not size up the desperation taking place

:24:26.:24:30.

in my hometown. Some good news, he was very excited, he was encouraged

:24:31.:24:38.

about a trade deal with the UK. Just to get into those specifics, our

:24:39.:24:42.

environment secretary said he would not do a deal with the US if it

:24:43.:24:47.

meant accepting chlorine rinsed check-in, that is the big question

:24:48.:24:52.

in the UK, would the US administration make those

:24:53.:24:56.

concessions? We are meeting each other for the first time, I have no

:24:57.:25:01.

idea what is going on with chlorine enriched check-in. I could pretend

:25:02.:25:05.

to make something up but I will not do that but if you interview me in

:25:06.:25:10.

one week I will figure what is going on their... Will we get a trade

:25:11.:25:16.

deal? 100%, Donald Trump loves the UK. Do you want a trade deal with

:25:17.:25:23.

the UK? You don't answer the questions? Do you want a great trade

:25:24.:25:28.

deal? Of course we do. Think about the special relationship since the

:25:29.:25:33.

inception of this nation, there was a group of rich guys who said, we

:25:34.:25:38.

will break away from the other country and start our own, this was

:25:39.:25:42.

a disruptive start-up and a President is bringing it back to its

:25:43.:25:45.

roots of disruption. We will disrupt... Powders that making

:25:46.:25:55.

concessions with the UK mean? Review meet us halfway? I don't think so,

:25:56.:26:00.

he is about being fair and equal with trade, he wanted to be

:26:01.:26:05.

reciprocal and there is historical context, coming out of World War II,

:26:06.:26:11.

the US but in the Marshall plan and working with the state and

:26:12.:26:15.

treachery, we have the trade deals to align goods and services to flow

:26:16.:26:21.

freely into the US and accepted some level of viral activity to grow

:26:22.:26:26.

those middle-class groups. Last question, in the job for less than

:26:27.:26:30.

one week, give us some sense of how it feels being at the centre of the

:26:31.:26:35.

White House? I am having a lot of fun, I love my country, I told

:26:36.:26:39.

people at the press conference last week that no one has ever worked for

:26:40.:26:44.

me, I am getting collaboration to get people around me to win, I had

:26:45.:26:51.

lunch with the President today, and does it look like he is having a

:26:52.:26:55.

good time? Yes. I am here to serve at the discretion of the President,

:26:56.:26:59.

if he wants me to leave tomorrow, I will not stay. Thank you for joining

:27:00.:27:07.

me. And I am not an elitist. You can come back and call me an elitist any

:27:08.:27:12.

time you want! I apologise to your viewers! We will explain why there

:27:13.:27:23.

was a lot to unpack here and just one week into the job, we will come

:27:24.:27:28.

back when we know more. Emily, thank you very much! We have a sense of

:27:29.:27:32.

the view from the White House. Well, we got a sense of the view

:27:33.:27:36.

from the White House there. But earlier this week

:27:37.:27:39.

the talk was on trade talks. And specifically of

:27:40.:27:42.

chlorinated chicken. You can dismiss it as a mere detail,

:27:43.:27:43.

but it is the little things that Everyone agrees with the abstract

:27:44.:27:47.

principle of free trade, it's only the details

:27:48.:27:50.

they argue over. The issue of chicken,

:27:51.:27:52.

US food standards and a trade deal has already made for nuanced

:27:53.:27:55.

differences in approach See if you can spot them -

:27:56.:27:56.

first Liam Fox on this programme last night,

:27:57.:28:00.

and then Michael Gove this morning. We have no intention of reducing

:28:01.:28:12.

standards, we have said we think British standards and protection for

:28:13.:28:18.

the consumer... You will rule out chlorine washed chicken? There is no

:28:19.:28:23.

health issue, the EU said it is perfectly safe. The issue lies

:28:24.:28:27.

around some of the secondary issues of animal welfare. Chlorinated

:28:28.:28:37.

chicken? Should that we allowed? We don't need to waste time on this,

:28:38.:28:43.

yes to chlorinated chicken or no? No. I made it clear, something upon

:28:44.:28:48.

which all members of the government are agreed, we will not divert our

:28:49.:28:53.

welfare animal standards or environmental standards in pursuit

:28:54.:29:00.

of any trade deal. They could do with an alignment meeting. Chicken

:29:01.:29:03.

is just one issue, the bigger question... We will have to buckle

:29:04.:29:09.

to US pressure to trade on their terms and regulations will they

:29:10.:29:12.

sometimes boggled as? Could we persuade them to reach a deal on

:29:13.:29:16.

financial regulation allowing for more business for banks, for

:29:17.:29:20.

example? This is the stuff that determines the direction of Brexit

:29:21.:29:25.

Britain and Chris Kirk has been looking at how a deal might come

:29:26.:29:26.

together. The free trade agreement that

:29:27.:29:29.

Britain will ultimately have to negotiate with the European Union

:29:30.:29:32.

should be the easiest FTA Liam Fox's confidence

:29:33.:29:35.

about an EU trade deal, though, may be hard to square

:29:36.:29:44.

with his enthusiasm To see why, you can look

:29:45.:29:46.

at the argument about so-called Unlike the UK, the US is pretty open

:29:47.:29:50.

about its trade policy objectives. They publish an annual report

:29:51.:29:57.

on foreign trade barriers which lists for every country

:29:58.:30:03.

in the world what they would like to see addressed in any

:30:04.:30:06.

forthcoming trade agreements We know, for example,

:30:07.:30:08.

that for Britain, they are concerned about how much money we spend

:30:09.:30:12.

in subsidising We know that there are American

:30:13.:30:14.

products they wish they could get into our market - for example,

:30:15.:30:22.

genetically-modified corn, hormone-boosted beef and, most

:30:23.:30:24.

famously, chlorine-washed chicken. A critical thing to grasp

:30:25.:30:28.

is that the EU and the US disagree fundamentally about how

:30:29.:30:31.

to regulate poultry farming. Here in the EU and the UK,

:30:32.:30:36.

the approach taken by farmers is one that seeks to keep the animals,

:30:37.:30:41.

for example in chicken and poultry farming,

:30:42.:30:45.

healthy right throughout Rather than one that seeks control

:30:46.:30:48.

pathogens simply at the very end of the production process by washing

:30:49.:30:59.

the carcass in chlorine-based The thing is, though,

:31:00.:31:02.

these things are more than about, Some of them really exist to help

:31:03.:31:05.

shield European farmers So, you might think,

:31:06.:31:15.

why don't we just do away The problem is, letting in food

:31:16.:31:19.

into the UK that cannot be sold in the EU might cause us problems

:31:20.:31:27.

with the European Union. If the UK goes and signs up

:31:28.:31:30.

to a trade deal with the US before it has ironed

:31:31.:31:33.

out its own relationship with Europe and it starts accepting things that

:31:34.:31:36.

are currently banned in Europe, it makes it quite difficult

:31:37.:31:38.

to have an open border between the UK and the EU

:31:39.:31:41.

because the EU will be worried about the UK becoming a back door

:31:42.:31:44.

channel for products coming from the US into Europe

:31:45.:31:46.

via the UK but are not If we were to change our regulatory

:31:47.:31:49.

standards to allow things, for example, like chlorinated

:31:50.:31:55.

chicken into the UK off the back of a trade deal with the US,

:31:56.:31:59.

then we would find ourselves struggling really significantly

:32:00.:32:05.

to trade with the EU and, in fact, you would find a situation

:32:06.:32:08.

where hard borders would have to be established, particularly

:32:09.:32:12.

between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland because the EU

:32:13.:32:16.

would want to manage very closely the trade of goods between the UK

:32:17.:32:20.

and the EU. This is not to say that good

:32:21.:32:25.

deals for both the US But chlorinated chickens may be

:32:26.:32:28.

in a category where we have As Emily Maitlis found earlier,

:32:29.:32:36.

US farmers may build up their EU It is very premature

:32:37.:32:43.

to start talking about those kinds of negotiations,

:32:44.:32:47.

those are all things But, again, we have alternatives

:32:48.:32:49.

to chlorine currently being used that we can use,

:32:50.:32:53.

if it does come down These are things that have

:32:54.:32:58.

already been approved by the European Food Safety Authority

:32:59.:33:05.

that they use to meet domestic standards and also

:33:06.:33:08.

international standards, where we have shipped

:33:09.:33:12.

to more than 100 countries. So just to clarify, you could forego

:33:13.:33:15.

the chlorine rinsing if it meant But sometimes trade partners may

:33:16.:33:18.

have rules that force Andrew Lilico is an economist

:33:19.:33:27.

and the managing director And something of a Brexit optimists.

:33:28.:33:44.

Good evening. A lot of the Brexit optimism pins on things like free

:33:45.:33:50.

trade deals with the US. One feature. Do you accept they may not

:33:51.:33:55.

be willing to bow to our regulations and we will have to bow to theirs? I

:33:56.:34:01.

think one feature of trade deals is when you have free trade you do not

:34:02.:34:06.

have to have the same regulations and we can have regulations and sell

:34:07.:34:10.

things into the US which means they can have their way of doing things

:34:11.:34:15.

and sell things to the UK. We are used in the EU that in order to

:34:16.:34:18.

trade we have to produce everything the same way that that is not how

:34:19.:34:27.

free trade works. The point is you have a symmetry. Just to be clear,

:34:28.:34:30.

that would mean we let in chlorine rinse chicken. You would let it in,

:34:31.:34:36.

probably label it, so consumers can make their own choice. And then you

:34:37.:34:41.

say free trade can occur. Consumers can choose. If they don't want that

:34:42.:34:48.

they can buy something else. Do you think the Americans are free

:34:49.:34:54.

traders? Are they a bit like the EU? They will say, we understand you,

:34:55.:34:58.

small Britain, will buy our chicken and sell it as an alternative, but

:34:59.:35:04.

we will not let your banks trade on your terms, we will let them trade

:35:05.:35:10.

here on our terms. Historically the US have not been particularly

:35:11.:35:17.

pro-free trade. In the case of the UK, they are keen to do a deal. What

:35:18.:35:23.

President Trump wants to emphasise is he is not anti trade, he is in

:35:24.:35:28.

favour of reciprocal, symmetric agreements. He does not want

:35:29.:35:32.

agreements where you have deals with countries that have lower wages and

:35:33.:35:37.

lax standards, which leads to large trade deficits. He wants deals where

:35:38.:35:43.

it is balanced trade, you have the same kinds of standards and wages

:35:44.:35:48.

and he is keen to show he is not anti trade and will want a deal with

:35:49.:35:51.

the UK because Americans are in favour. America has not given up on

:35:52.:36:00.

global trade, so a sign? It is difficult, do you think a free-trade

:36:01.:36:04.

deal with the US would improve our trade balance with the US and we

:36:05.:36:10.

would X bought more on or would it improve their trade balance? I would

:36:11.:36:15.

hope it would be in both directions. It cannot be. I hope it increases

:36:16.:36:21.

imports and exports. What about the balance? I think he is worried about

:36:22.:36:27.

their deficit. Some people here think we need to export more and

:36:28.:36:33.

import less. Increase exports by more than imports. The main benefits

:36:34.:36:38.

to a country from trade deals are rising increase in imports Annsert

:36:39.:36:42.

Whyte is better for consumers and from the point of view to the

:36:43.:36:46.

challenge to domestic companies to face more challenge from imports,

:36:47.:36:51.

which is what the economic evidence suggests. I think we will have

:36:52.:36:56.

improved export opportunities. I don't think it can be our trade

:36:57.:37:02.

deficit improves with regard to the US and their trade surplus improves

:37:03.:37:07.

with regard to us. It is not both. I suspect you would not have an

:37:08.:37:11.

enormous change in either direction. One interesting thing to point out,

:37:12.:37:18.

a funny secret of trade, although on the UK date we believe we have a

:37:19.:37:23.

large surplus with the US, on US data they believe they have a small

:37:24.:37:30.

surplus with us. One of the implications is from the US point of

:37:31.:37:33.

view they do not think it is a problem to solve. The US and EU have

:37:34.:37:41.

negotiated their own trade deal. Do you think our deal, at the end of

:37:42.:37:45.

the process, will be better than the one the EU will sign? Probably

:37:46.:37:50.

better from our point of view. The EU may think the deal they get with

:37:51.:37:55.

the US is better from their point of view, and I suspect we will get at

:37:56.:38:00.

least a good deal from our point of view as theirs. Their deal is on

:38:01.:38:07.

offer to us. If we are in the EU, we get there deal automatically.

:38:08.:38:11.

Assuming they get the deal. We have to sign a deal that is so much

:38:12.:38:15.

better than theirs it offsets whatever reduction in trade we get

:38:16.:38:19.

from the EU. I don't think one should expect a deal with the US by

:38:20.:38:28.

itself, although it is the country which is the largest single exporter

:38:29.:38:35.

in the UK. -- I think there is a game to be made. The EU estimates

:38:36.:38:40.

the trade deal with the US should gain half a per cent of GDP and for

:38:41.:38:44.

the UK we might expect to do better in terms of the deal we might get

:38:45.:38:49.

with the US. I think the EU has shown itself it is difficult to do a

:38:50.:38:53.

deal with the US up to this point. I think we will do a deal with it

:38:54.:38:57.

quicker which might mean we gain because the US does a deal quicker

:38:58.:39:02.

and because we are doing one, they will do one with the EU, as well.

:39:03.:39:09.

Because of our unexpected guest in Washington we do not have time for

:39:10.:39:14.

the interview we promised with the daughter of Anita Roddick and we

:39:15.:39:15.

will bring it as soon as we can. Before we leave you,

:39:16.:39:19.

yet another blow for Western patriarchy was announced today

:39:20.:39:21.

when we learned that the sperm counts in North America, Europe,

:39:22.:39:23.

Australia and New Zealand have No one quite knows why it's

:39:24.:39:26.

happening, but here's a reminder # I thought that I heard you

:39:27.:39:30.

laughing Wherever you are in the UK,

:39:31.:40:18.

tomorrow is one of those "grab We have a driving area of low

:40:19.:40:33.

pressure to the west of Scotland,

:40:34.:40:37.

With Evan Davis. The government has proposed to end the sale of petrol cars by 2040. Plus Emily Maitlis reports from Washington, Grenfell Tower, trade deals and chickens, and Anita Roddick's daughter on her mother's death.


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