25/08/2017 Newsnight

The battle for Raqqa is raging and the US-backed coalition

is closing in on the so-called Islamic State.

But as its grip on the caliphate weakens,

In the early years of the self-proclaimed caliphate,

the message was all about travelling out to Syria to help

Now, the message to supporters in the West is to stay away

and attack the "kaffir", disbelievers, at home.

Violent clashes leave at least 23 dead

in Northern India as a religious leader is convicted of rape.

We'll hear from an Indian journalist who has followed the case.

Also tonight, the Government announces the first

steps to self-driving lorries on Britain's roads.

So what does the future hold for those who drive for a living?

Well, I think it's going to be dangerous.

Why not? Well, it might kill somebody.

And a study suggests that women have more stamina than men.

So could there be female domination at endurance sports?

For more than three years, the black flags of so-called

Islamic State have cast a dark and bloody shadow

But soon they might flutter their last.

The battle for Raqqa, IS's defacto capital in Syria,

Still, as the self-styled caliphate crumbles, there are fears the group

will increase its efforts to terrorise Europe's shores -

and concerns about what might happen if its fighters return home.

This map shows how IS control in Iraq and Syria peaked in 2016.

Since then, its collapse has been swift.

This is the territory it controlled at the end of June this year.

Data from the Global Terrorism Database at the University

of Maryland show that between 2013 and 2016, there were 211

terror attacks outside Iraq and Syria by IS

Since 2013, five such attacks were in the UK.

Security sources say that in the last four years,

attack by a man outside Buckingham Palace.

Either way it shows that Britain is on high alert. It begs the question,

if IS is weakened in Syria, where will it turn attention to next?

Slowly but surely, so-called Islamic State's caliphate is being

IS is losing battle after battle on the ground.

But it's too early to say it's lost the war, because

as the state fails, it will continue in other forms.

It's a proto-state in Raqqa, and Mosul, and over those areas.

It's also an insurgency across Syria and Iraq.

And it's a terrorist movement to us here in the West.

It occupies all of these three states simultaneously.

Just because it's being pushed back as a state, that does nothing

So, what does this mean for the UK terror threat?

Around 850 jihadists from Britain have gone out

Half of the remainder, about 360, have already returned here.

But many of these are early adopters and may pose a lesser threat.

People who went in 2012 were motivated by very different

The drivers of their radicalisation, the pull, the alure,

When we talk about returnees in the UK, people who have come

back, they are pretty much people who went earlier on.

Many of those still in Syria will want to stay and die fighting.

And even if they did try to return, security sources have told Newsnight

that MI5 knows the identities of most of the 850 British

So, getting back into the UK undetected would be very difficult.

Plus Turkey and transit countries are cooperating with intelligence.

We know of one case of an individual with IS who did return to the UK,

So he travelled through various countries by road, by car,

and jumped on a ferry in the end, and came across the UK.

When he did, the police had been monitoring him and tracking him

the whole way across Europe so as soon as he set foot on these

He's been convicted, he is serving a sentence right

In Syria, IS's gradual defeat may actually spur supporters in the West

Official security sources have told Newsnight has been a marked

shift in IS propaganda, and this now is the major

threat against the UK, and not from fighters physically

Any early years of the self-proclaimed caliphate,

the message was all about travelling out to Syria to help

Now, the message to supporters in the West is to stay away

and attack the "kaffir", the disbelievers, at home.

The most recent attacks in Spain illustrate this well.

The leader of the plot, a preacher, was blown up

There is some evidence he spent time in prison with one of the terrorists

responsible for the 2004 Al-Qaeda train bombings in Madrid.

But there's no evidence yet of any link with Syria.

TRANSLATION: We have no evidence to prove that any of the attackers

Most of the attacks we discovered in Catalonia and Spain in the last

few years have been inspired by propaganda found online.

But it's usually low-key incidents, mainly propaganda and small-scale

terrorist financing, or sending recruits

So, how do you stop low-tech attacks using trucks or knives?

It's become much harder as the threat has diversified.

Al-Qaeda plots were relatively sophisticated,

There was a chain of command, networks to penetrate,

So is a shift in counter-terror tactics today required to combat

TRANSLATION: It's important to tackle the threat at all stages,

from the process of catching new recruits to Islamic State,

dealing with self-starters who are attracted to the propaganda,

and police techniques to detect and dismantle these extremist

Security sources here in the UK have told Newsnight that

when intelligence does not meet the threshold for terrorist

prosecutions, then they look for evidence of lesser crimes.

Arrests are then made to disrupt networks and plots.

A lot of people, myself included, would like to see the authorities

being far more disruptive in terms of arrests and prosecutions

of people who are engaging with this material, who are engaging

with spreading terrorist content, who are looking at that content

There needs to be a much tougher and proactive legislative

approach towards this, an arrest approach towards this.

One former counterterrorism police officer told us that low-level

crime often features in terrorist investigations.

But he says the UK has preferred to run investigations long,

with the aim of securing terrorist convictions.

We might find evidence of theft or credit card fraud,

So, on terrorism, it's simply the same thing.

For many years, I've been saying I don't know why we don't go

Given that MI5 has 500 active investigations and

six plots have been stopped since the Westminster Bridge attack

in June, disruption by prosecuting for low-level offences is likely

to become an increasingly vital tool.

So what of the hundreds of Britons who joined Isis

And how worried should we be about the changing threat?

I'm joined by Tasnime Akunjee - he's a criminal lawyer who has

specialised in terror cases and represented the families

of three schoolgirls from Bethnal Green who fled to Syria.

With us from Dubai is Aimon Deen, he's a former extremist who joined

Al-Qaeda before leaving the group and becoming an informant for Mi5.

What we know so far is that one of those schoolgirls is believed to be

dead and the other two unknown. Watching that report, what you think

would motivate someone considering IS's caliphate shrinking, and the

state of its presence in Syria now, what would motivate somebody to

stay? A few things, number one, their inability to leave, that would

cause them to stay. I would imagine, they would be concerned about what

would be like -- what life would be like should they return. The

prospect of coming back to a European country from which they may

have originated, knowing they may well be detected, probably being

aware that they are on the radar, from interactions with the

authorities and their families since they left, then it is not an

attractive prospect. And also, they have the problem of trying to get

across a war zone into Turkey, whose shutters have come down some time

ago in terms of the porous and is of its borders. And the short to kill

-- shoot to kill policy on the border with Turkey. There are high

hurdles for somebody to actually... I mentioned you represented the

three families of the girls from Bethnal green, we understand, the

understanding is, that one of them may be dead, it is not known, the

fate of the other two. If they are alive, could they be motivated to

come home? What could motivate them? In terms of the girl who was

reportedly killed, there was an active attempt to bring her back,

she wanted to leave, but the final straw that stopped her in gauging in

that attack was the brutal murder of a 16-year-old Austrian girl, who had

tried to leave the week before, she had been caught and beaten to death,

publicly, for that attempt, and that is what stopped the attempt to

leave. You work for Al-Qaeda between 1998 and 2006, part of the currency

which helped you come home was that you knew you had associations with

Osama bin Laden. How easy was it for you to return? At the time, it was

easy, because I was going out of Afghanistan for a medical treatment,

my intention was basically to leave, because it was in the aftermath of

the East Africa bombings. I decided that it was not a path I wanted to

continue with. During that medical leave, let's put it this way, I was

then approached by MI6 at the time, and I was persuaded to continue

working for Al-Qaeda, but passing information back to London. That is

what happened. It was an environment which allowed me to go, which

allowed me to leave. Not as paranoid as IS right now stop what we have

been talking about the state of IS's control over Raqqa, and how the

caliphate may be weakened, when you compare IS with Al-Qaeda... In terms

of what they are able to do with terrorism... Is IS is strong with or

without a physical state? Well, let us a member that between 2009, up

until 2013, IS had no territory whatsoever. They were more or less

an underground group, armed with a considerable amount of cash, and a

network of businesses from Baghdad to Mosul to Ramadi and other places,

and they were able to use this network of businesses, including

cafes and restaurants, farms, transportation companies, in order

to infiltrate the security services and the government headquarters in

Iraq will stop then they were able to use that as an intelligence

gathering network, then they took over a quarter of the country in

lightning speed, using the fact that a neighbouring country there was a

civil war, Syria. So, now, if they lose that territory, it does not

matter because they have now a considerable amount of cash, as well

as a considerable business network in neighbouring Turkey and in

Kurdish regions, in northern Iraq, as well as the fact they have a

network of sympathisers across the world. Which they never had

2009-2013. So, they are perhaps an even greater threat than they were

between 2009-2013. Is Europe more at risk, now the state is weakening, we

have called it the endgame, in Raqqa? It is advising followers and

supporters to make damage, to make terror where they are.

Since they lost the border with Turkey, and the Turkish border

became inaccessible in terms of smuggling people who are coming from

Europe and other parts of the world, it became clear that they are

telling would-be recruits, you know, potential recruits, to stay where

they are, in Europe, Australia and North America, and to wage jihad

wherever they are. The fact of the matter is that they themselves

adopted this, almost since 15 months ago, telling people to stay where

they are and wage jihad where they are. Because now, Isis is moving

from being a proto- state into a transnational terrorist

organisation. What do you think? Do you think you have seen more people,

if people are being urged to stay in Europe, do you think there is also

that motivation, however difficult it is, to return? I think being

urged to stay is just a soft power projection statement by Isis,

suggesting they have some control over the fact when they don't.

People can't leave the UK. I know, I mean supporter staying in Europe,

not going to Syria? Again, it is still a soft power issue. If any

attack happens inside of Europe, Isis will claim it is on the basis

that they made that edict, rather than the fact that, physically, they

could not, the individual couldn't move. More importantly, the reason

why Isis is more dangerous is not because it has a network, it is

because it is now a franchise. If somebody was to get news headlines,

they just have to do something that is crazy, pick up a knife or drive a

car into somebody, which actually happens quite a lot, our prisons are

filled with criminals, but to get front page on that you just say you

did it in the name of Isis. Thank you very much. Thank you for your

time. Curfews are in place and thousands

of soldiers are on the streets in cities across five of India's

northern states - this after violence erupted

after the conviction Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh was found

guilty of raping two women at the headquarters

of his Dera Sacha Sauda sect, which claims to have

60 million followers. At least 23 people were killed

in clashes after the hearing The violence later spread

to the capital Delhi. The convictions have halted

the superstar lifestyle of the self-styled religious leader,

who starred in rock concerts and movies as was known

as the culture of bling. His conviction ends years of

controversy over his conduct. Earlier, I spoke to an Indian

journalist who has reported on Singh and his sect for more than a decade.

I began by asking what the situation is in India tonight. We just

received information that the death count, the mayhem that followed the

arrest of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh has resulted in the death of more

than 50 people, including in Punjab. So, the situation is pretty tense.

Tell us about Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh. To you, he is a well-known

name. But very little is known about him here. Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is

the chief of a set called Dera Sacha Sauda. He is known to have too much

power in India because of his close proximity with the ruling and

opposition parties. The city from where he operates, he is virtually

the king of the city. The city is divided into two halves, one is run

by Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh and he has a following of millions. There

are accusations against him ranging from sexual exploitation, murder,

castration and other illegal activities. He was evading the law

since 2002, because of his connections with higher-ups in state

machinery and political parties. Take us back to the beginning of

this man's life. How has he managed to amass such a huge following,

millions of people adoring him? People in the upper caste of India,

they were looking for something where they can get a certain kind of

equality in the social system. The other thing was, Gurmeet Ram Rahim

Singh was known to have good connections in the ruling parties.

This am a nation of power, and realisation that, OK, there is

somebody giving us a space in society. Because of his close

connection with bureaucracy and politicians, he was able to get work

done, people had faith in him that he was somebody that was a God. That

was the time when he started exploiting his disciples. You will

be surprised to know, in the process of the investigation, we chanced

upon a witness who has given a statement, that how everyday he

wanted a new woman in his chamber, and rules for this to be provided

for him. In 2002, one of his disciples, then Prime Minister of

India, an anonymous letter stated how she was sexually exploited by

Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh. Now that these accusations have come, now

that his reputation is in tatters, what will happen to his followers? I

am sure that this outburst, this will not last long. The death of

more than 28, 30 people, it has really exposed him. I know that

these supporters were completely dependent on him. The man was

getting their dirty work done, the man was like a god for them. I think

in a matter of a few days, things will be under control. The

supporters that were supporting them, whatever job they were doing,

whatever things they were doing, they have to go back to their normal

life. Platoons of driverless lorries,

thundering down our motorways. That vision came closer today

after the government gave the green light to test runs of self-driving

trucks on Britain's clogged roads. For now only some of the functions

will be performed by the machines - there will still be drivers

in each vehicle. But the announcement

raises questions about the future of travel -

and of professional drivers. Is the traditional trucker,

or the cheerful cabbie, When the world - and Newsnight -

was a little more carefree than it is now, Stephen Smith

was our Motorway Man. The poorer old lorry drivers come in

for some affectionate ribbing over the years. But we would miss him if

he wasn't there. # I like trucking!

But what's this? Replaced by a smoothie with a tablet? Look, no

hands. A computer has taken over the tedious chore of actually driving.

In this test run, the speed of the second wagon is set by the League 1.

The pair of them are linked by Wi-Fi, something called platooning.

Yellow marker 10% less fuel, that is money of our shopping bills. Less

CO2, we will be helping the planet. If we get platooning, vehicles

moving smoother together, we won't get the traffic jams. Finally,

safety, robots and sensors not making mistakes.

But handing over the wheel to a robot would surely be too much to

bear for the lorry drivers of Great Britain? We pulled into the London

Gateway services on the M1, to dunk a dipstick in the emotions of the

freighter fraternity. Think it's going to be dangerous. I don't think

it'll work. Why not? Well, it might kill somebody. I think it is a death

trap, to be honest with you. Definitely. Without somebody behind

the wheel, to grab it. I don't know, maybe it is a good idea, for the

traffic. I don't know. It could see people and stop. The trucker is the

master of his vehicle, a connection we weaken at our peril, say some.

The real difficulty comes with computers trying to respond to

unexpected circumstances, a cat running into the middle-of-the-road,

or having to take an immediate left turn because something has happened,

there is and obstruction. It is the 1% of stuff, the tail end risk.

Computers have not managed to figure all of that out. Even if you have a

leading truck that is still effectively being looked after by a

human, there is still the concern, with automated technology, that the

driver himself might be a little bit complacent. 98% of everything we

have, eat and consume, comes on the back avail or you. Brett's Supply

chain is vital to the economy. Also vital to that economy are the

drivers who drive the trucks. The job doesn't just begin and end with

driving, they also have all of these other duties to do with unloading,

form filling and so on. It's not only lorry drivers that

could be on the road to nowhere if the machines take over. Mind if I

hop in and talk about driverless cabs? They don't have the knowledge

that you have with a human, you know? Some people don't like to

talk, some people do, they like to know the history of London and the

UK. They like to know what football team is winning or losing. They want

to know where they can get a pint of milk from. Lorry drivers of Britain,

we salute you. After all those years of not nodding off at the wheel,

computers mean you cannot last get 40 winks -- can at last get 40

winks. So, to the battle of the sexes -

it's a subject many enjoy Well, researchers at the University

of British Columbia in Canada say that men may be physically

bigger and more powerful - Specifically, their study found

that the female of the species is less physically exhausted

after repetitive gruelling tasks and so naturally better

at endurance events, to such an extent that they

could soon regularly Here's one example of extreme female

endurance achievements. Quoted in much of the reporting

of this study today is that of cyclist Lael Wilcox,

who stunned her male competition last year to become the first woman

to win the 4,300 mile Trans Am She joins us now via

Skype from Alaska. she's a sports nutritionist

and performance coach who has worked She has also run ultra-marathons

and joins us from Bristol. Lael, Renee, welcome to you both.

This study, it says because of women's abilities to do frequent,

repetitive movements for longer, it shows we have more endurance. Does

this surprise you? No, not at all. The style of racing that I do is

ultra-distance. It takes about a couple of weeks to complete the

race. It is really all about recovery. In terms of recovery, is

that just being sensible, psychological, just the fact that

physically women are able to recover better? For me, it is really

physical. Day after day, I feel pretty good. Usually during these

races I sleep for four five hours, and I wake up the next day post I am

in some pain, but able to continue. I think it is pretty physical. In

your races, have you beaten men? Yes, last summer I beat the entire

field. I finished in 18 days. I caught the first placed man in the

final night. Renee, do you think the fastest woman in the world, talking

ultra marathons, could be a woman? Without a doubt. I think this study

is great in terms of bringing to light some of the things we have

already known for a while, that women are better suited to

ultra-distance events. A lot of that seems to be related to hormonal and

biochemical processes in our body. I think it is great that we are

getting more investigations into this particular area. How do you

explain, Renee, this statistic, which amazed us in the office. Paula

Radcliffe's a world marathon time is two hours 15.25, set in the London

Marathon. It is 30 minutes faster than the women's record in the

mid-70s. If you look at the similar data over men's Times, the

improvement is only five minutes. One of the things we need more

research into, one of the things that is clear is that female

physiology is to these events. The studies that have been done, it's

shown that women fare better in events that are 26.2 miles and

above. I think a lot of that is related to the fact that we tend to

burn fat a lot better than men. So, we naturally have a higher reserve.

We have a bigger tank of fat stores, because women generally do have. On

top of that, we have a better ability to use that for fuel.

Particularly in these ultra events, we know that at some point you are

going to run out of your carbohydrate stores. Even fold

glycogen stores only last 60 to 90 minutes. You will need topping up.

But even that will not be enough. Having the better efficiency of

using fat for fuel is one of the critical things that makes us so

good at running these longer events. Lael, the scientific evidence seems

to point that women could have the upper hand when it comes to these

ultra marathons, these longer events. Do you think there are any

other sports where the barriers could be broken down, or the

competitive edge could be broken down? I think there is definitely

room for improvement in all sports for women. There is definitely a lot

less encouragement. We are seeing a change, but there is still a lot of

room for that to build. Speaking about results changing so

dramatically from the 70s, there were very few women competing in the

marathon in the 70s. Many more now, but I still feel like its many fewer

than men competing. So, that will change and we will see improved

results. Renee similar question, when we look at sports like

football, where short bursts of energy are needed, or tennis, do

women compare with men? Absolutely. I think a lot of the athletes I work

with, there is no difference between men and women in how they train.

They train the same, they put the same effort in, they get the same

sports science support. I think football is an interesting one,

because it is now emerging and the women's squads are getting a lot

more support now. Prior to the last few years, this wasn't something

that was actually very clear. I think with the right wraparound and

the right direction, yes, we can definitely see a huge improvement in

women making their ground. Renee, Lael, thank you very much for your

time this evening. That's almost it for tonight,

but before we go, you might Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson

was in Libya this week, where he was welcomed by a Libyan

military band giving a tuneful At least, we think it's

the national anthem.