13/11/2017 Newsnight


13/11/2017

With Evan Davis. A detailed look at what happened in one massacre in Myanmar. Plus the commons vote on Brexit, the world of cognitive bias and the rhino population.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

The village of Tula Toli,

in Rakhine Province in Mynamar.

0:00:050:00:09

On August 30 this year,

a massacre occurred there.

0:00:090:00:12

We've pieced together what happened.

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It's just one example

of the violence that has led

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to a huge exodus of Rohingya

Muslims, out of Myanmar.

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The people of Tula Toli had seen

neighbouring villages burn,

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but thought they were safe.

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It's been called a textbook case

of ethnic cleansing.

0:00:530:00:55

When you see the testimony,

you might think it is

0:00:550:00:58

rather more than that.

0:00:580:01:00

Also tonight, the Brexit

Secretary, David Davis,

0:01:000:01:04

promises a Commons vote

on the final deal.

0:01:040:01:07

So what happens if the

Government loses that vote?

0:01:070:01:12

We're talking crisis for the

Government and an exit with

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unless Tory rebels can challenge

Theresa May in one key area.

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Hello.

0:01:310:01:32

It would be nice to think that

in the modern age ethnic cleansing

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and religious massacres

no longer occur.

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After all, the world has shrunk.

0:01:360:01:38

We all know what's

going on these days.

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Despots have fewer secrets

than they used to.

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They are surely shamed or scared

by international law from kicking

0:01:430:01:45

people out of their homes

or standing by while

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they are murdered.

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It would also be nice to think that

as democracy spreads, so does

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civility and the rule of law.

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And that's why events this year

in Myanmar have been such a shock.

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Although the country has returned

to a degree of democracy,

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since August, 615,000 people

of the Rohingya Muslim minority have

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fled the country to Bangladesh.

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They come with shocking stories

of the treatment meted out back home

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in Myanmar's Rakhine province.

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It's no wonder they have left.

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The plight of the Rohingya

was highlighted by the Prime

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Minister, Theresa May,

in her Mansion House speech tonight.

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This is a major humanitarian crisis,

which looks like ethnic cleansing,

0:02:240:02:29

and it is something

for which the Burmese authorities

0:02:290:02:32

and especially the military must

take full responsibility.

0:02:320:02:37

Well, in a moment, we'll see

a deeply disturbing film

0:02:370:02:39

from Gabriel Gatehouse on some

of the testimony of the refugees,

0:02:390:02:42

on the fate of one

village in Rakhine.

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But before we do, let's just

just get some background

0:02:460:02:48

to the problems there.

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First the numbers:

0:02:490:02:52

Myanmar is a country

of 55 million people.

0:02:520:02:55

Although ethnically divided,

the Buddhist religion provides some

0:02:550:02:59

form of unifying identity

to the bulk of the population -

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88% or so.

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Muslims are a small minority.

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In 2015, there were about a million

Rohingya Muslims, a mere 2%

0:03:080:03:11

of the Mynamar population.

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But in Rakhine province itself -

or Arakan as it is also known -

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if the Rohingya were all allowed

back, they'd probably

0:03:190:03:21

be the majority.

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The history of ethnic tension

between Rakhine Buddhists

0:03:240:03:28

and Rohingya Muslims

goes back centuries,

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not improved, by the way,

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by British Colonial rule.

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Scenes as appalling as any refugee

crisis I've ever witnessed.

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In the post-war era,

with Myanmar independent,

0:03:430:03:44

there have been sporadic

outbreaks of trouble.

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Rohingyas have often aspired

to secede from Myanmar,

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but separation is an idea

that was greeted with virulent

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hostility by the country's

numerous military rulers.

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They stripped the Rohingya

of citizenship in 1982

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making them stateless.

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The latest trouble dates

back to August 25.

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A Rohingya group -

call them militants or insurgents -

0:04:050:04:10

attacked police and army posts.

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The response has been harsh,

creating the huge exodus

0:04:120:04:16

that's occurred this year.

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We'll see Gabriel's film

in a moment, but he's with me now.

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People will see a film that's

extremely important. Just give us a

0:04:220:04:27

little background, tell us about

this one village.

This massacre is a

0:04:270:04:34

massacre of such horrifying

proportions, such horrific brutality

0:04:340:04:37

that it merits investigation in its

own right. I've reported on Islamic

0:04:370:04:41

State in Syria and Iraq, but none of

that really comes close. This is by

0:04:410:04:45

far the most disturbing story I've

ever covered. We're talking about

0:04:450:04:49

mass murder, mass rape. The killing

of infants and of children. But it's

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not an isolated case. This is the

kind of thing that has been going on

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throughout northern Rakhine State

since the end of August and indeed

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continues in some places to go on to

this day. We're talking about whole

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villages being burned, razed, ethnic

cleansing in effect. This is

0:05:080:05:11

violence that is perpetrated against

a people who, in any case, have few

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of the rights, basic rights that

human beings, normal human beings

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would expect, besides being denied

citizenship, they're denied the

0:05:210:05:24

right to vote. They're denied decent

health care, decent education.

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They're even denied the right to

travel freely inside their own

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country. This is violence that's

perpetrated by a government that is

0:05:320:05:36

led by somebody who's been awarded

the Nobel Peace Prize. Now it's

0:05:360:05:40

difficult to report from inside

Myanmar, the Burmese government

0:05:400:05:45

doesn't allow independent access to

the affected areas. Certainly it

0:05:450:05:48

would be impossible to get

meaningful access to the village

0:05:480:05:51

we're talking about. So we travelled

to Bangladesh and collected

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testimony in the camps there, where

the survivors of this massacre have

0:05:560:06:01

sought refuge. Just to warn you

again, our report contains extremely

0:06:010:06:06

disturbing images, very disturbing

testimony and graphic descriptions

0:06:060:06:09

of sexual violence.

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These people have just

crossed the border.

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They are in no-man's land.

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They have been driven

from their homes in Myanmar,

0:07:190:07:23

now they are waiting for permission

to enter Bangladesh.

0:07:230:07:28

The Rohingya are a people that

neither country wants.

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What happened in your village?

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They just burned our houses.

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These are some of the survivors,

they are hungry, they are sick,

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and they are scared.

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Across the river, there

is a deliberate campaign

0:07:480:07:52

of terror going on.

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A campaign from

which no-one is safe.

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We don't know how many

people have been killed,

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but we do have some idea of how many

have been burnt and chased out

0:08:050:08:11

of their homes, these are just

the tiny fraction of the hundreds

0:08:110:08:14

and hundreds of thousands

of people, who have fled.

0:08:140:08:18

In our investigation,

we are going to focus

0:08:180:08:24

on the events of one day,

of one massacre, in one village.

0:08:240:08:26

Its name is Tula Toli.

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Since August, more than 600,000

people have sought refuge

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in the camps in Bangladesh.

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People who brought little with them,

but the nightmarish memories

0:08:390:08:43

of their experiences at the hands

of the Burmese military.

0:08:430:08:49

We have come here, to find survivors

of the Tula Toli massacre.

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We have spoken to six of them,

we have cross references

0:08:530:08:58

their testimony with video evidence.

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Absolutely horrific pictures.

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With maps of the local area,

as well as with interviews collected

0:09:030:09:06

by human rights organisations.

0:09:060:09:09

What emerges is a picture

of systematic violence.

0:09:090:09:13

Violence that has been described

as a text book example

0:09:130:09:19

of ethnic cleansing.

0:09:190:09:22

Using a satellite photograph

of the area, a Rohingya elder

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showed me how the massacre unfolded.

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The village of Tula Toli consists

of a number of settlements

0:09:470:09:51

surrounded on three sides

by the meandering flow of a river.

0:09:510:09:56

In previous days soldiers set

fire to other villages

0:09:560:09:58

on the opposite bank.

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That Wednesday morning, the 30th

August, they crossed into Tula Toli.

0:10:010:10:05

There was panic.

0:10:050:10:09

Everyone mentions the river.

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With the soldiers advancing

from the north-west,

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and a police post to the south,

many of the villagers ran east,

0:10:470:10:50

they ended up on the river bank.

0:10:500:10:52

They were trapped.

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And yourself were on the other

side of the river?

0:11:460:11:49

This woman showed us

where she and others swam

0:11:490:11:52

across the river at a point

downstream where it was

0:11:520:11:55

narrow enough to cross.

0:11:550:11:58

They used banana trees and plastic

canisters as liferafts.

0:11:580:12:02

Did you see this with your own eyes?

0:12:020:12:05

From a hill on the opposite bank,

they watched the horror unfold.

0:12:100:12:15

The horrific scenes she witnessed,

still give her nightmares.

0:13:020:13:07

She watched the bodies

of her neighbour's children wash

0:13:160:13:22

up on the river bank,

the scene was filmed

0:13:220:13:24

by another villager.

0:13:240:13:30

The children's names

were Rashida, five years old,

0:13:320:13:35

Kushida, three and Zahidia,

who was 11 months.

0:13:350:13:42

Anora Begum, her husband

and her four children all managed

0:13:520:13:55

to escape with their lives.

0:13:550:13:59

Mohammed was not so fortunate.

0:13:590:14:02

He and his youngest daughter

survived but three of her

0:14:020:14:04

sisters were killed,

and so was their mother.

0:14:040:14:08

The violence began five days before

the massacre at Tula Toli,

0:14:420:14:45

on the 25th August, when members

of a Rohingya militant group

0:14:450:14:50

attacked a number of police posts

inside Myanmar, killing 12.

0:14:500:14:53

In response, the Burmese military

began what they called

0:14:530:14:55

clearance operations.

0:14:550:15:02

Boats filled with refugees have

been coming ever since.

0:15:020:15:10

It's two month since the terrible

incidents that we have been looking

0:15:100:15:12

at and these people are saying

it is still going on.

0:15:120:15:16

Some have accused the Burmese

Government of using the attacks

0:15:200:15:23

by the militants as a pretext

for a vicious and indiscrimate

0:15:230:15:26

crackdown against civilians.

0:15:260:15:36

Bangladeshi authorities monitor

what goes on on the other

0:15:420:15:44

side of the border.

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And I have been told that

from the beginning of August,

0:15:460:15:50

so about three weeks before

the violence started,

0:15:500:15:54

they noticed an increase in military

activity on the Myanmar side.

0:15:540:15:57

Now, if that is true, that would

suggest an element of preparation

0:15:570:16:00

for the violence that followed.

0:16:000:16:02

And this is the suggestion

that we have heard corroborated

0:16:020:16:06

by some of the witnesses we have

spoken to as well.

0:16:060:16:16

We were told an an incident that

happened nearly two weeks before

0:16:170:16:19

the massacre at Tula Toli.

0:16:190:16:21

Also, before the attacks

by the militant group known

0:16:210:16:23

as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation

Army.

0:16:230:16:26

Which sparked the response

by the Burmese military.

0:16:260:16:36

Were they trying to recruitment

people in the village,

0:16:550:16:57

was there some truth to that?

0:16:570:17:05

Witnesses said the policemen

were called in by the village

0:17:050:17:08

administrator, a local

Buddhist Government official.

0:17:080:17:12

A few days later that same

official called a meeting.

0:17:120:17:15

Elders from both communities

were asked to sign

0:17:150:17:16

a kind of peace treaty.

0:17:160:17:20

Was that unusual to be asked to do

something like that?

0:17:260:17:31

The Rohingya of Tula Toli saw that

document as an explicit

0:17:360:17:39

guarantee of their safety.

0:17:390:17:43

It's because of this they stayed

in their homes even when they saw

0:17:430:17:47

other villages being burned.

0:17:470:17:50

Now they believe the administrator

double crossed them.

0:17:500:17:52

Almost everyone we spoke

to mentioned this village

0:18:070:18:09

administrator, the local

Government representative.

0:18:090:18:10

His name is Singh.

0:18:100:18:13

He would accuse the villagers

of supporting the militants some

0:18:130:18:16

said, others that he tried to force

them to register as foreigners.

0:18:160:18:20

Another village elder,

told me before the massacre

0:18:200:18:23

he and Mr Singh had been

in regular contact.

0:18:230:18:27

Do you have his phone

number, can you call him?

0:18:270:18:35

Human rights investigators

and journalists have been trying

0:18:360:18:38

to talk to this man for months.

0:18:380:18:41

None have managed to

contact him, until now.

0:18:410:18:49

Mr Hussein lost a son and three

grandchildren in the attack.

0:18:490:18:53

Now, over a crackly phone line

he accuses the village administrator

0:18:530:18:56

of complicity in the massacre.

0:18:560:19:06

At the end of the conversation,

Mr Hussein seems unconvinced.

0:19:510:19:54

Do you believe him?

0:19:540:20:03

The majority of Myanmar's Rohingya

Muslims have by now already fled.

0:20:090:20:12

Dispossessed and stateless,

the mud soaked camps

0:20:120:20:13

of Bangladesh are what they must,

for now, call home.

0:20:130:20:23

The Burmese Government

says its military operation

0:20:260:20:28

are a response to attacks

by militants from the

0:20:280:20:32

Arakan Rohingya Salvation

Army on 25th August.

0:20:320:20:38

But what about those reports

of troop movements weeks earlier?

0:20:380:20:43

Well, we are on our way now to meet

an officer in the Bangladeshi border

0:20:430:20:46

guard who might know more about this

and might be willing to talk to us.

0:20:460:20:50

Hello, Major.

0:20:500:20:51

How's it going.

0:20:510:20:52

Fine.

0:20:520:20:53

Good.

0:20:530:20:55

The major said he wasn't authorised

to speak to the BBC on camera

0:20:550:20:59

but we did have a conversation off

camera and he said I could quote him

0:20:590:21:02

with the following.

0:21:020:21:05

They saw from around 5th August

a huge concentration,

0:21:050:21:07

his words of Myanmar military

in the border area.

0:21:070:21:11

his words, of Myanmar

military in the border area.

0:21:110:21:13

He said apart from burning

people's homes they extorted

0:21:130:21:16

valuables, took their money.

0:21:160:21:17

I asked him what the purpose

of all of this was, he said

0:21:170:21:20

they are trying to make the state

Rohingya free.

0:21:200:21:25

By late morning on the 30th August,

on the river bank at Tula Toli,

0:21:250:21:29

dozens of people had

already been murdered.

0:21:290:21:32

But it wasn't over yet.

0:21:320:21:35

Some villagers had escaped

by swimming across the river,

0:21:350:21:40

but many remained behind,

especially younger women

0:21:400:21:41

who had been separated

from the rest by the soldiers.

0:21:410:21:44

Those who survived endured an ordeal

of almost unimaginable horror.

0:21:440:21:54

Severely burned and wounded,

Mumtaz managed to crawl to safety

0:23:040:23:07

and eventually escape under

cover of darkness.

0:23:070:23:12

She came to Bangladesh

with her seven-year-old daughter.

0:23:120:23:15

Her daughter was beaten

by the soldiers, but survived,

0:23:150:23:18

the others did not.

0:23:180:23:20

One of her children, she said,

was burned to death.

0:23:200:23:27

At least one other survivor

of the Tula Toli massacre has

0:23:380:23:40

reported her young child was thrown

into a fire.

0:23:400:23:43

Others had infants

torn from their arms.

0:23:430:23:53

Mumtaz is only 30 years old.

0:24:150:24:17

The men who raped her, who killed

her children, were soldiers.

0:24:170:24:23

But she, like others,

told us that non-Rohingya civilians

0:24:230:24:26

took part in the attack that day

as well, demanding

0:24:260:24:28

money and valuables.

0:24:280:24:33

I wondered about the Buddhist

village administrator,

0:24:460:24:48

no-one we spoke to said

he personally took part

0:24:480:24:50

in the attack, and it seems unlikely

a local civilian official could have

0:24:500:24:54

stopped the powerful Burmese

military, but still it felt

0:24:540:24:57

like he had questions to answer.

0:24:570:25:02

Hello sir, it is the BBC here, just

to say we are recording this call,

0:25:020:25:06

can I ask you why did you not warn

the villagers that the army

0:25:060:25:09

was going to come in?

0:25:090:25:11

The people here say that you wanted

the Rohingya out of the village,

0:25:110:25:14

The Burmese Government doesn't

regard the Rohingya Muslims

0:25:500:25:52

as citizens of Myanmar.

0:25:520:25:55

Stark in the camps in Bangladesh

without official status it will be

0:25:550:25:57

hard for them to return home,

even if they felt

0:25:570:26:00

it was safe to do so.

0:26:000:26:06

The United Nations has called

this ethnic cleansing.

0:26:060:26:08

Others prefer the term genocide.

0:26:080:26:14

By whatever name you call it,

the massacre at Tula Toli

0:26:140:26:17

was a monstrous crime.

0:26:170:26:21

A crime that the Burmese Government

is not investigating.

0:26:210:26:23

Every evening on the border,

more people try to cross

0:26:230:26:25

to safety in Bangladesh,

new arrivals say the villages

0:26:250:26:28

are still being burned.

0:26:280:26:38

That they are still being chased

and terrorised from their homes.

0:26:380:26:41

If it continues like this

there won't be many

0:26:410:26:43

Rohingya left in Myanmar.

0:26:430:26:47

Gabriel Gatehouse reporting.

0:26:470:26:50

And making that film with him,

were producer, James Clayton,

0:26:500:26:52

and camerman, Jack Garland.

0:26:520:26:53

We did contact the Myanmar embassy

last week to get more

0:26:530:26:56

on their side of the story,

but we have not had a response.

0:26:560:27:06

And one post script,

to date the UK - that is DFID

0:27:080:27:11

using the aid budget -

has committed £47 million to help

0:27:110:27:14

ease the situation there.

0:27:140:27:15

On Brexit we had an apparent

concession to MPs from

0:27:150:27:17

the Government today.

0:27:170:27:18

Yes, they'll get a vote

on any Brexit deal.

0:27:180:27:20

It'll be in legislation,

enshrined in a Withdrawal Agreement

0:27:200:27:23

and Implementation Bill.

0:27:230:27:23

The debate now is whether that is

the so-called meaningful vote that

0:27:230:27:26

numerous MPs had sought or whether

it is a fake meaningful vote.

0:27:260:27:29

Our political editor,

Nick Watt, is with me.

0:27:290:27:38

Is that meaningful vote? It guess it

depen on what happened if they vote

0:27:410:27:44

no

I think I will give you a yes,

but answer, it is meaningful because

0:27:440:27:49

we are talking about legislation,

ledge laying could be amended and it

0:27:490:27:52

will contrast with the earlier vote

the Government's proposed which is

0:27:520:27:55

is a vote on a motion that would

take place on the deal before the

0:27:550:27:59

European Parliament gets its vote.

But this piece of legislation would

0:27:590:28:02

be like a treaty, there will be a

treaty with the EU, you can't really

0:28:020:28:07

amend treaty, because it has been

done. And also David Davis said this

0:28:070:28:10

evening if you vote this bill down,

you are voting for a no deal, and

0:28:100:28:17

crucially, the pro European Tories

would have lost the one bit of

0:28:170:28:21

leverage they would have, if the

Government succeeds in getting on to

0:28:210:28:24

the face of the bill, its own amend,

which is to name the date of Brexit.

0:28:240:28:31

So that is...

That happens unless

you change it

They would not be able

0:28:310:28:36

to say can we extend.

So it is vote

for the Deal or No Deal. Doesn't it

0:28:360:28:41

mean that the only way the rebels

can change the Government's mind is

0:28:410:28:46

to vote the Government down, is to

treat it as a confidence motion?

0:28:460:28:49

Will they treat it as a confidence

motion sand say if this fails the

0:28:490:28:53

Government goes?

Where we are now

that is the on the way they could do

0:28:530:28:57

it. At the moment the Tory rebels

haven't got the numbers, there are

0:28:570:29:02

five or six Labour people, MPs who

will vote with the Government, the

0:29:020:29:06

Government has a majority of ten. So

the Tory rebels have to be in double

0:29:060:29:10

figure, will they be there? I'm not

sure, that is just to amend the

0:29:100:29:14

legislation. Bringing down the

Government? They would have to go in

0:29:140:29:20

the division lobbies with Jeremy

Corbyn, win a vote of no confidence

0:29:200:29:23

and what? Give him two weeks to try

and form a government. I don't think

0:29:230:29:27

any Tory MP would do that.

Last one,

if it is not impossible that we will

0:29:270:29:32

be often a take it or leave it deal

by the EU at the end of it all and

0:29:320:29:36

the Government will say we want the

leave it, it is a bad deal. Is there

0:29:360:29:39

any way MPs can say hang on a

minute, you can't say no, we would

0:29:390:29:42

like to say yes to that deal. Can

they kind of, can the EU reach over

0:29:420:29:47

the head of Government to give our

MPs a deal that the Government don't

0:29:470:29:51

want. ?

Remember that the Government

controls the legislative time

0:29:510:29:54

Northern Ireland Assembly the House

of Commons, and this is a minority

0:29:540:29:59

Conservative administration but they

do have the support of the DUP. Ten

0:29:590:30:02

votes in the bag because the DUP do

not want to see Jeremy Corbyn as

0:30:020:30:06

Prime Minister, buzz you have right,

the EU is thinking of doing that,

0:30:060:30:09

because they are sensing weakness.

0:30:090:30:13

Often on programmes like this,

we talk about the world

0:30:130:30:16

as if it is a rational place.

0:30:160:30:18

We query policy decisions as though

people have thought about them

0:30:180:30:20

logically.

0:30:200:30:22

Often they have, but in

the last few decades,

0:30:220:30:24

we have more than ever come

to realise that human thought is far

0:30:240:30:28

from rational and is subject

to all sorts of human error.

0:30:280:30:30

We have cognitive biases

that sway our thinking,

0:30:300:30:32

just as Spock used to

tell us in Star Trek.

0:30:320:30:35

Apart from him, it was two Israeli

psychologists who worked

0:30:350:30:37

together in the '70s and '80s,

who did more than anyone

0:30:370:30:41

to promote our understanding

of our irrational side.

0:30:410:30:43

And their collaboration

makes a fascinating

0:30:430:30:46

story in its own right.

0:30:460:30:49

It's been told in a book called

The Undoing Project by the acclaimed

0:30:490:30:52

US writer Michael Lewis,

the man behind the Big Short and

0:30:520:30:55

Moneyball among other blockbusters.

0:30:550:30:58

I met up with him this morning,

to talk about the world today,

0:30:580:31:01

cognitive biases, and those two

Israeli psychologists who most

0:31:010:31:03

people have probably not heard of.

0:31:030:31:08

So I forgive people

who haven't heard of them,

0:31:080:31:10

because I hadn't heard of them.

0:31:100:31:13

Danny would be best known for having

one won the noble prize

0:31:130:31:15

in economics in 2002.

0:31:150:31:17

Despite not being an economist.

0:31:170:31:20

There were two psychologists,

who met in the late 60s,

0:31:200:31:23

in Jerusalem and though

they were seen by the people

0:31:230:31:28

round them as complete

opposite, total odd couple.

0:31:280:31:31

One was neurotic an depressed

an artistic and imaginative

0:31:310:31:35

and the other was this very up beat

logician, but who was kind

0:31:350:31:43

of everybody could see his genius,

they came together to do work

0:31:430:31:48

that was unlike any work that had

been done in psychology,

0:31:480:31:51

they explored scientifically how

the mind worked, and specifically,

0:31:510:31:56

they went looking for the errors

the mind make, and found kind

0:31:560:32:01

of systematic errors that the mind

makes and this had implications

0:32:010:32:06

for all kinds of fields,

you name the field I can

0:32:060:32:09

give you an implication,

but medicine, in law,

0:32:090:32:13

and their work spawned the field

of behavioural economics.

0:32:130:32:16

The partnership between them

was fantastically productive,

0:32:160:32:19

and as you say, sort

of revolutionised the way

0:32:190:32:22

we think about thinking,

And then they didn't quite hold it

0:32:220:32:26

together at the end.

0:32:260:32:28

Oh no.

0:32:280:32:30

They busted up like a pair of loves

who were upset with each other.

0:32:300:32:35

The relationship, the relationship

had exactly the ark of a romantic

0:32:350:32:38

affair, they met each other,

they fell in love with each

0:32:380:32:41

other's minds, they had

ten spectacular year,

0:32:410:32:51

the sex was the ideas,

the children were the result.

0:32:530:32:55

Give us an example of your favourite

cognitive error we make

0:32:550:32:58

You have a simple one to describe,

the way totally irrelevant

0:32:580:33:01

information can distort a decision,

they call it anchoring,

0:33:010:33:03

so they brought people into a room,

they gave, put them with a wheel

0:33:030:33:06

of fortune that had numbers 0

to 99 on it.

0:33:060:33:11

They had them spin the wheel

of fortune, and it would come up

0:33:110:33:15

on a number, they would ask them

after this what percentage

0:33:150:33:18

of the countries in the United

Nations are in from Africa.

0:33:180:33:22

And the people who had spun a high

number would guess a higher number

0:33:220:33:26

and the people who spun allow number

would guess a low number.

0:33:260:33:29

America's in a peculiar place

at the moment, isn't it?

0:33:290:33:32

Have you found this cognitive

bias framework useful

0:33:320:33:36

in thinking about Trump,

the election, the way

0:33:360:33:40

the voters have behaved?

0:33:400:33:44

The joy of this is that you can

filter almost anything through it,

0:33:440:33:47

you can certainly filter

the election through it.

0:33:470:33:49

The first thing their work would say

is wasn't it incredible,

0:33:490:33:53

after the election, how an event

that nobody saw coming,

0:33:530:33:57

all of a sudden, starts to get

explained in all kinds of ways that

0:33:570:34:01

suggests it was predictable.

0:34:010:34:03

Their point would be

it wasn't predictable.

0:34:030:34:07

There's a lot of

randomness in elections.

0:34:070:34:08

You hold the election

one day versus another

0:34:080:34:10

you get a different result.

0:34:100:34:11

Who shows up that day,

so on and so forth.

0:34:110:34:14

Where do you think it's going to go?

0:34:140:34:17

I still hold out hope for a comic

ending, rather than a tragic one.

0:34:170:34:21

He has no idea what he's doing.

0:34:210:34:25

He's surrounding himself largely,

often with people who have no

0:34:250:34:31

idea, who are ill suited

to the role they're playing.

0:34:310:34:35

He's trying to mobilise

ugly forces in society.

0:34:350:34:39

I don't think there's

enough of it to sustain.

0:34:390:34:41

If I had to bet what happens, I'd

bet he's out of office in a year.

0:34:410:34:51

I mean it does seem like American

checks and balances have stopped him

0:34:510:34:55

doing very much, right?

0:34:550:34:58

He hasn't actually,

look at what he's done,

0:34:580:35:00

he's basically tweeted a lot.

0:35:000:35:02

He's appointed some judges.

0:35:020:35:04

They're going to be

there for a long time.

0:35:040:35:06

He's made a lot of people unhappy.

0:35:060:35:07

He's stopped some refugees

from coming into the country.

0:35:070:35:12

He's made people very unsettled

about their health care.

0:35:120:35:15

What he's done is change

everybody's mood.

0:35:150:35:18

Quite likely what's going to happen

is it's going to get worse.

0:35:180:35:21

His presence in the office

is weakening his party.

0:35:210:35:26

The way he's reacting

to the Muller investigation he's

0:35:260:35:31

behaving exactly as a man

would on whom Russia had something.

0:35:310:35:35

I mean, the only way to explain

the tone of his behaviour is he's

0:35:350:35:41

afraid of what Russia might

do to him.

0:35:410:35:44

Michael Lewis, thank you very much.

0:35:440:35:46

Thank you.

0:35:460:35:49

How can we protect rhinos?

0:35:490:35:51

There are only about

28,000 in the wild,

0:35:510:35:53

and a new film invites us to wonder

whether hunting them,

0:35:530:35:57

or allowing trade in their horns,

can actually be good

0:35:570:36:00

for the species.

0:36:000:36:07

I am paying for this hunt, people

are employed because we are hunting.

0:36:070:36:11

If there is no value

and we can't hunt these animals,

0:36:110:36:13

they will be extinct.

0:36:130:36:15

The commodification

of wildlife, what a vision

0:36:150:36:18

of nature that would be.

0:36:180:36:19

They like to talk

about conservation,

0:36:190:36:21

they are just brainwashing.

0:36:210:36:27

They enjoy killing.

0:36:270:36:29

The change is coming.

0:36:290:36:30

We're going to put it into this.

0:36:300:36:31

Surely we want our world to survive.

0:36:310:36:33

We have to keep this fight going.

0:36:330:36:36

This is my trophy, and there's not

any bureaucrat that can

0:36:360:36:38

take it away from me.

0:36:380:36:40

Now - that's the taster

of the film Trophy -

0:36:400:36:46

which is in cinemas and downloadable

later this week.

0:36:460:36:48

It looks at the money that can be

raised and the habitat protected

0:36:480:36:51

by allowing some commercial hunting.

0:36:510:36:53

Or more intriguingly,

the idea of farming rhino in order

0:36:530:36:55

to sell their ivory.

0:36:550:36:57

Clearly, this has not been

the traditional approach

0:36:570:36:59

to animal protection.

0:36:590:37:00

Well, joining me are John Hume,

who claims to be the world's biggest

0:37:000:37:03

private rhino breeder.

0:37:030:37:05

He features in the film,

and wants to sell ivory

0:37:050:37:07

that is humanely taken

from the animals.

0:37:070:37:10

Also with me is Tania McCrea-Steele

from the International Fund

0:37:100:37:13

for Animal Welfare.

0:37:130:37:16

Very good evening to you both. John,

tell us what you do - you've got how

0:37:160:37:22

many rhino on your ranch?

I have

1,538 as of today.

You breed them?

I

0:37:220:37:29

breed rhinos and I believe that I

have the recipe to save them from

0:37:290:37:33

extinction.

Which is?

Breeding

better, protecting better.

Right.

0:37:330:37:39

And the crucial bit that you want,

which is you basically take off

0:37:390:37:43

their horns. You don't kill them to

take off their horns.

No, you only

0:37:430:37:47

take off their horns, like you take

off your nails. Cutting it off on

0:37:470:37:51

the dead part that's not alive. So

we trim their horns and the day

0:37:510:37:59

after we've trimmed them, it's worth

so much less to the poacher.

Because

0:37:590:38:04

the rhino hasn't got much horn left.

It's worth so much left for him to

0:38:040:38:09

kill and steal the horn. It's

necessary to make it less attractive

0:38:090:38:13

to the poacher, when he's still got

the same amount of risk, the same

0:38:130:38:17

amount of work but much less we

regard.

Crucial -- reward. Crucially

0:38:170:38:21

you want the money from selling the

horn to pay for the whole operation.

0:38:210:38:24

Exactly. Having removed some of the

horn, by the horn trimming

0:38:240:38:29

procedure, it is dangerous to store

it and expensive to store it. So why

0:38:290:38:34

don't we use the money from the horn

to save the lives of the rest of the

0:38:340:38:39

rhino.

Let me put that question to

Tanya. We get the business model.

0:38:390:38:45

Yeah.

What is wrong with that as a

business model?

I understand that

0:38:450:38:49

John is a businessman and trading in

rhino horn, let's face it, is

0:38:490:38:53

profitable. That's what is

motivating all these criminals to

0:38:530:39:00

change their criminal syndicates and

focus on illegal trade in rhino

0:39:000:39:02

horn. What we'll see with the sale

going ahead is actually the demand

0:39:020:39:08

for rhino horn being stoked. We'll

see an increase in appetite for the

0:39:080:39:13

trade in rhino horn. What we really

need to do is we need to suppress

0:39:130:39:18

that demand -

You're legitimising a

market, basically.

Yeah, then it

0:39:180:39:22

makes it nigh on impossible for both

consumers who might buy into the

0:39:220:39:27

green washing, but for enforcers to

tell the difference between illegal

0:39:270:39:31

rhino horn and legal horn. If you're

buying a piece of rhino horn, find

0:39:310:39:36

me one customer that's going to DNA

test it.

The crucial issue is

0:39:360:39:41

whether a market in rhino horns

legitimises the illegal market in

0:39:410:39:46

rhino horns?

No banning has ever

worked in the world. America learned

0:39:460:39:53

that lesson by trying to ban

alcohol. We have given the market to

0:39:530:39:58

the poachers. We've given them carte

blanche. They've got no competition.

0:39:580:40:03

All the business has gone to them.

Because we've kept it away from the

0:40:030:40:10

legal suppliers of rhino horn. My

rhinos will all be dead in ten years

0:40:100:40:15

if I don't finance keeping them

alive.

That's simply not true. Back

0:40:150:40:19

in the 80s we saw an ivory ban come

into effect. We saw ivory poaching

0:40:190:40:25

massively decrease. Then we saw a

case being made for putting legal

0:40:250:40:32

ivory back into circulation and what

we saw after that, which we

0:40:320:40:37

prophesised, which was there would

be a spike in poaching. That's

0:40:370:40:39

exactly what's happened. This has

played out before with elephants. We

0:40:390:40:42

need to make sure it doesn't happen

again with rhinos. We're reaching a

0:40:420:40:47

tipping point where we're getting

the political momentum to tackle

0:40:470:40:51

this problem. This is going to

really be a backward step because

0:40:510:40:54

we're on the verge of bidding the

network to break a network.

There

0:40:540:40:59

are elephant experts in Africa who

will completely disagree with that

0:40:590:41:04

and tell you a one-off sale is not

the way to go, not in ivory or rhino

0:41:040:41:09

horn. Obviously, I'm here to argue

for the life of my rhinos.

The

0:41:090:41:15

interesting thing is that some say

if you can let people make money out

0:41:150:41:19

a big mammal, the big mammals will

survive. If you make money by

0:41:190:41:25

killing big mammals they will be

extinct in a few generations.

It's a

0:41:250:41:30

lovely idea in an ideal world. But

this is the real world. This isn't

0:41:300:41:34

just about the rhinos, this is about

the lives of the people standing

0:41:340:41:37

between the rhinos and poachers to

protect them because they want

0:41:370:41:40

rhinos to be around for their

children. They don't want to see

0:41:400:41:42

them go the way of the dinosaurs.

What we're doing at the

0:41:420:41:46

international fund for animal

welfare is working with local

0:41:460:41:48

communities to make sure that they

can benefit from wildlife thriving

0:41:480:41:54

on their doorstep and working on

tangible solutions.

The film is

0:41:540:41:59

called Trophy, thank you both very

much indeed.

0:41:590:42:02

That's all we have time for.

0:42:020:42:03

I'm back tomorrow.

0:42:030:42:04

Till then, goodnight.

0:42:040:42:11