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welcome to Question Time. Good evening to you at home. Good | :00:09. | :00:21. | |
evening to our audience, ready to ask questions of the panel. Lord | :00:22. | :00:27. | |
Sugar's right hand man and star of The Apprentice, Nick Hewer. Liberal | :00:28. | :00:34. | |
Democrat Minister, Susan Kramer. Labour's shadow front secretary, | :00:35. | :00:37. | |
Douglas Alexander. Conservative MP Nadhim Zahawi. And journalist and | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
commentator Isabel Oakeshott, who broke the story of Chris Huhne and | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
Vicky Pryce's speeding points, that led to their downfall. | :00:49. | :01:01. | |
Just before the first question, I should say that there is a page on | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
loose in the room somewhere and we have not been able to track it down. | :01:08. | :01:10. | |
If you see members of the panel docking, it is not because of verbal | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
assault but because a pitch and keeps swooping around. -- a bird | :01:16. | :01:26. | |
keeps swooping around. A question from Sam Smith, please. Should | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
nurses be getting the 1% public sector pay rise? 600,000 nurses are | :01:32. | :01:40. | |
not getting it. Should they be getting it? Douglas Alexander. | :01:41. | :01:47. | |
Nurses across the country will feel let down by Jeremy Hunt breaking the | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
word that was given to NHS staff by George Osborne when he announced his | :01:52. | :01:58. | |
budget macro. NHS staff have seen pay cut after a pay cut four-year | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
is. Of course there needs to be restrained in pay across public | :02:03. | :02:06. | |
services in tough economic times. But I think it is simply wrong to be | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
in a position where there was an unwanted, unannounced top-down | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
reorganisation of the national health service that ended up costing | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
?3 billion, which has put the NHS in a weakened financial position, which | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
meant that ?1.4 billion alone was spent on redundancy payments within | :02:25. | :02:28. | |
the NHS, which has now led to nurses being singled out in this way. I | :02:29. | :02:34. | |
don't think it's fair or right. You would find the money, if you were in | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
government? We would have met the commitment, but we would have done | :02:40. | :02:42. | |
so without this top-down reorganisation which has led to | :02:43. | :02:45. | |
six-figure checks being led to people who walk away. You can't | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
understand the finances of the NHS today without realising that ?3 | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
billion was taken out for a reorganisation that benefited nobody | :02:54. | :02:59. | |
but the 2400 managers in the NHS who are now earning more than the Prime | :03:00. | :03:00. | |
Minister. APPLAUSE | :03:01. | :03:08. | |
Nurses and doctors do an incredible job. | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
If you just think that they now treat 1.2 million more people | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
through Accident Emergency. They worked incredibly hard. The | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
difficulty is that the wage bill for the NHS is ?50 billion. If you | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
deliver a 1% across-the-board increase, that is ?500 million, | :03:28. | :03:34. | |
approximately. What Jeremy Hunt is saying is that half of the staff in | :03:35. | :03:39. | |
the NHS are going to get an automatic pay increase. It is called | :03:40. | :03:42. | |
the incremental increase. Those people should not get the additional | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
1%. Those who do not get the automatic increase should get the | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
1%, and the managers on top page should not get any increase | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
whatsoever. Under Douglas Alexander's watch, managers got a 7% | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
pay increase while nurses got 3%. So a double increase under labour for | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
them. One last point to make. We have ring-fenced B NHS in England. | :04:07. | :04:13. | |
?12.7 billion more going into the NHS. You only have to look at | :04:14. | :04:17. | |
Labour's management or mismanagement of the NHS. Look at Wales and what | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
is happening there. Waiting lists are longer, they refuse | :04:23. | :04:24. | |
investigations into hospitals with high death rates, because they just | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
do not want to face up to the fact that they cannot manage the NHS. | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
Douglas can do something about it. He can ask his Labour colleagues in | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
Wales to come out and have an investigation, and to safeguard the | :04:39. | :04:48. | |
NHS and spend more on it. Sam Smith, you asked the question. What | :04:49. | :04:57. | |
do you think of those answers? I am currently under the hospital, and | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
the nurses, the care that they provide, the attention to every | :05:01. | :05:04. | |
patient, getting to know you whether you are in there for two days, a | :05:05. | :05:08. | |
week, a month, the care is incredible. The 1%, they extremely | :05:09. | :05:23. | |
deserve it. The blunt truth is that the NHS is broke and no politician | :05:24. | :05:27. | |
wants to admit it because it is political suicide to say so. At the | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
NHS is not sustainable in its current form. We have to get real | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
here. Nobody is denying that doctors and nurses do an amazing job, but we | :05:38. | :05:42. | |
cannot afford to keep on raising salaries. If we do, then we are | :05:43. | :05:47. | |
going to have to cut jobs. It is as simple as that. If we cut jobs, | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
patients are not owing to end up getting the level of care they | :05:51. | :05:57. | |
deserve and expect. -- patients are going to end up not getting the | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
level of care they deserve and expect. The buzz phrase from Tories | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
has been that there are tough decisions to be made. What | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
decisions? MPs are getting a higher pay rise next month. 1%. Apparently | :06:13. | :06:21. | |
it would cost ?200 million. Compare that to the ?141 billion given to | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
support the banks. But let's set that aside. Do you know what has | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
happened? The nurses not getting 1%. The number of working households now | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
below the poverty line has overtaken, at 6.7 million, the | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
number of workless families. What worries me is that we are now | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
creating a new official poor. And it may well be that nurses will fall | :06:46. | :06:51. | |
into that group. And the new official Paul was illustrated | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
yesterday. Pound land floated at ?3 a share, shares went up. Morrison's | :06:57. | :07:02. | |
crashed today. Why? Because they are taking on the discounters because | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
people are flooding the cheap supermarkets. There is a new poor on | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
the march. I think we are back in Victorian times. Susan Kramer, is | :07:11. | :07:21. | |
the correlation # the coalition creating a official poor? We are in | :07:22. | :07:28. | |
times of austerity. We are finally seeing a recovery after we were | :07:29. | :07:31. | |
handed a broken economy at the beginning of the coalition. It is | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
finally recovering. I hope it will start feeding through to wages. Not | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
for millions of families across the country who are struggling to pay | :07:41. | :07:44. | |
the bills, seeing their wages fall, as Nick has suggested. It is an | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
insult to them to suggest you deserve a lap of honour and | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
congratulations when there is a cost of living crisis affecting nurses, | :07:52. | :07:55. | |
affecting a range of public sector workers and private sector workers, | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
too. You are creating circumstances where there are millions of in work | :08:01. | :08:08. | |
poor. Rebuilding the economy is absolutely vital. It means we have | :08:09. | :08:15. | |
to continue to be tough on the deficit and that is an ugly reality | :08:16. | :08:20. | |
but it is the only way out of this. Why are you borrowing ?198 billion | :08:21. | :08:25. | |
more than your government predicted three years ago? That is not | :08:26. | :08:33. | |
success, it is failure. We can go on arguing about the economy, but is | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
what clear is that it was broken when we came there. There was a | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
financial crisis. But the point was that your government so overspent | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
that there was no contingency, no caution, no way to cope with the | :08:46. | :08:53. | |
crisis. And we cannot go back to that situation. The second row from | :08:54. | :09:02. | |
the back. It is disingenuous for the coalition to claim this is about | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
saving 200 million from the NHS budget when they wasted 3 billion | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
needless NHS reform. The truth is they are trying to set up the NHS | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
for privatisation by demoralising staff and trying to encourage people | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
out of the NHS. What do you say to the point that the NHS is bust? It | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
is not. It will be in existence as long as there are folk with the | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
faith to fight for it. That is the truth. I talk to politicians all | :09:30. | :09:43. | |
day, every day, and almost every Tory MP privately admits that they | :09:44. | :09:49. | |
believe the NHS is unsustainable. That is not to say that it is not | :09:50. | :09:56. | |
going to be surviving, but it will have to be reformed. Can I come in | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
on that? Saving it requires reforming it, and that is what the | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
money has been spent on. If you want it in the future, you have to go | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
through some of the difficult steps for reform because that is how we | :10:10. | :10:18. | |
save it. Do you mind not shouting out? Wait until you have a | :10:19. | :10:27. | |
microphone. We have to make sure the NHS is sustainable. Nurses are | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
brilliant but that is point out that the people who are not getting the | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
1% are getting a 3%. And in this time, when it is really tough for | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
absolutely everybody, and most people are seeing only the most | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
minimal increase in their wages, it is not unexpected that within the | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
public sector people have to face some of the same constraints that | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
everybody in the private sector is facing. That is the reality. I just | :10:52. | :11:00. | |
worry. I made my point about the official poor. When I first came to | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
London in the 1960s, to the borough of Westminster, there were key body | :11:05. | :11:10. | |
trust buildings. -- Peabody trust buildings. On the lintel it had, for | :11:11. | :11:15. | |
the poor and criminal classes. I just worry that there is a | :11:16. | :11:18. | |
combination of poverty and criminality that is creeping into | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
the public psyche, into some of the more right wing press newspaper | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
groups. I don't understand what you're saying. Are you for against | :11:28. | :11:33. | |
the 1% pay increase? Is it too low? I think it should be more. Inflation | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
is 2%. Let's try and at least keep pace with that. What do you say to | :11:39. | :11:45. | |
that? What I say is that if you are going to increase pay, it is the | :11:46. | :11:50. | |
equivalent, the 450 million it will cost across-the-board, of 14,000 | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
nurses. You have to decide whether you let go of nurses. The gentleman | :11:56. | :11:58. | |
at the back talked about the NHS. I am ploughed -- proud of the NHS | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
being free at the point of delivery. It is the best health service in the | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
world and I shout about it all the time. We have made sure there are | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
more clinicians making decisions, not managers. Under Douglas, he | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
talks about the shameful way we have treated it, but they gave managers | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
double the pay rise of nurses and clinicians. That is shameful. That | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
was 2008, at the height of the crisis. A company you are a | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
nonexecutive director is profiting from the health service while you | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
are serving as a member of Parliament. That is a good point and | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
I'm glad you asked, because the company was delivering the same | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
service under your administration. In fact, the founders are donors to | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
the Labour Party. I have been a nonexecutive director since before I | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
became a member of Parliament. Do not try and play dirty tricks with | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
this. Take out the politics and talk about the facts. This is very open | :12:58. | :13:03. | |
politics. What are you accusing him of? I am asking him to be clear as | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
to his motivation because every time we have a Conservative government | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
the argument bubbles up that we cannot afford a National Health | :13:12. | :13:14. | |
Service. I don't believe we can afford not to have a National Health | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
Service. We saved it in the past and we will have to save it again. The | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
NHS is not safe in your hands. I have to go to the audience. My | :13:25. | :13:32. | |
question is, why bother going through the show rather than | :13:33. | :13:35. | |
independent Pay Review Body when the government won't take their advice? | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
We have the office of financial reforms ability which the government | :13:41. | :13:42. | |
insist they need for clarity and openness, yet they won't take the | :13:43. | :13:47. | |
advice of the independent Pay Review Body. When independent pay review is | :13:48. | :13:55. | |
recommend large pay rises for MPs I think they are wrong and I am | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
willing to counter it. I think you have to take responsibility. A | :13:59. | :14:09. | |
couple of days ago the national office of statistics released a | :14:10. | :14:14. | |
report looking at the bottom 5% of the private and public sector. The | :14:15. | :14:19. | |
private sector was 13% lower wages than the private sector. You talk | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
about a new poor being developed. Look at the private sector! They are | :14:24. | :14:27. | |
in a worse state. Surely we should be doing more about that. Douglas | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
Alexander, do you want to answer that specific point? | :14:32. | :14:35. | |
We should be levelling up, not levelling down. That is why we | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
introduced the national minimum wage. Why I welcome the fact that | :14:40. | :14:43. | |
the minimum wage is rising. And it is why we need to see a living wage | :14:44. | :14:48. | |
introduced by companies in the private sector as well. Does that | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
answer your question? Not really. We are talking about pay rises at the | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
moment. No-one in the private sector has been for some time... . The | :14:58. | :15:06. | |
bankers are. You cost every family ?3,000. You cannot sit here and not | :15:07. | :15:12. | |
apologise in the first place. APPLAUSE | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
Let's stick with this gentleman's point. How many bankers are there as | :15:18. | :15:22. | |
a po portion of the wofrk -- proportion of the workers of | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
Britain. He says most people in the private sector aren't. Of course | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
they are not bankers but... . Aren't getting pay rises. I am much against | :15:32. | :15:38. | |
bankers getting high wages and bonuses as anyone else. I am talking | :15:39. | :15:42. | |
about the low wages in the private sector, which you keep going on | :15:43. | :15:45. | |
about the bankers. Yes, we want to do everything we can for the | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
bankers. What about the low wages in the private sector? They need more | :15:51. | :16:03. | |
help than... We can pontive kat all we like. The country is bust. It is | :16:04. | :16:12. | |
not rubbish. We are bust. If we talk about the NHS, why are we talking | :16:13. | :16:18. | |
about people who failed trusts in the national health and allowing to | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
spend ?11 million to get rid of whistle-blowers? There's nothing | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
that happens to these people. He's still got his ?1.5 million pension | :16:29. | :16:34. | |
pot and salary. Who said rubbish when he said the country was bust? | :16:35. | :16:41. | |
It is rubbish. The reason we are in difficulty in this country, the NHS, | :16:42. | :16:46. | |
the country as a whole, we're having to have austerity shoved down our | :16:47. | :16:49. | |
throat all the time and be told the NHS is bust, is because we are owed | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
billions in unpaid taxes, as the gentleman at the back was trying to | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
make that point earlier. If the Government were to recoup the money | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
that is not paid in this country, in unpaid taxes, the NHS doesn't need | :17:03. | :17:06. | |
to be bust. Education could improve. Everything in this country could | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
improve, not alone be sustained if those taxes were paid. Nadhim Zahawi | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
Duke of Yorks you want to answer that -- Nadhim Zahawi Duke of Yorks | :17:16. | :17:21. | |
you want to answer that point? -- do you want to answer that point? | :17:22. | :17:26. | |
I said what I mean is that she is right we have to bear down on tax | :17:27. | :17:34. | |
avoidance schemes. That's not what she said. You bear down on tax | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
avoidance. That is what you do. In every year of this Parliament, the | :17:40. | :17:43. | |
rich will pay more taxes than every Year of the 13 years of Labour and, | :17:44. | :17:48. | |
we have got deals in place with Switzerland and with other | :17:49. | :17:51. | |
countries, where people cannot hide their money. That is how you get tax | :17:52. | :17:56. | |
into the coffers. You also have to make sure that what you do with that | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
money is responsible. That's the difference here. We have Dougy | :18:01. | :18:08. | |
talking about a money tree. Their track record says they pay managers | :18:09. | :18:11. | |
more than they pay nurses. That's the difference. | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
The woman up there in the back row. Not the second back row. Yes? Is the | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
NHS unsustainable or simply under-funded? That is what I want to | :18:23. | :18:25. | |
know. They are not given enough money and that is why they are | :18:26. | :18:30. | |
broke. It is not just because it has magically spent all its money it is | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
not getting the funding. One point is, the NHS is absolutely | :18:35. | :18:43. | |
institutionally inefficient. As a patient - I have three children. I | :18:44. | :18:48. | |
am in and out a lot. I constantly see examples of unbelievable | :18:49. | :18:51. | |
inefficiency. You only have to look at the fact there are basically no | :18:52. | :18:55. | |
electronic patient records, which means half the time you have to get | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
tests repeated. Once at the GPs, once at the hospitals and then again | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
because they have lost the results. If they could tighten up on the | :19:05. | :19:08. | |
inefficiency, I am sure that would free up a lot of money - enough to | :19:09. | :19:14. | |
give our nurses a decent pay rise. There are huge changes in the NHS | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
that make it more efficient. Instead of older people being sent home | :19:19. | :19:22. | |
where there is nobody to look after them, because there's been no work | :19:23. | :19:25. | |
with the local authority for their care, getting ill again and coming | :19:26. | :19:29. | |
back into hospital, that is changing and changing dramatically because of | :19:30. | :19:32. | |
the change in working. We are starting to bear down on those | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
people who do not show for their appointment. I mean, the millions | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
that costs over a few years is phenomenal. Now you have got a text | :19:41. | :19:46. | |
messaging system. You have got doctors identifying what are the | :19:47. | :19:50. | |
services they most need in their community and who should provide it, | :19:51. | :19:53. | |
because they are doing the commissioning. You go through these | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
changes and you start to get a service that can work, because I | :19:58. | :20:03. | |
think the NHS is worth keeping, worth protecting. It remains as a | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
public service. It is free at the point of use, but we have to | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
recognise, at a time of austerity, we keep putting more money in it, | :20:13. | :20:16. | |
but we have to spend it efficiency. It is jobs and this time around... | :20:17. | :20:22. | |
We are talking about a battle over money, wages n the NHS. Before we | :20:23. | :20:29. | |
leave this topic, I want to take a question from Kira Dhaliwal. | :20:30. | :20:35. | |
Do we need more union leaders like Bob Crow? | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
Who died on... APPLAUSE | :20:40. | :20:44. | |
Who died on Tuesday and was of course a defender of his section of | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
the economy. Nick Hewer? | :20:49. | :20:57. | |
My word. What actually upset me was the lorry loads of sant moanous | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
tribute tributes pouring in for Bob Crow and thinking actually down in | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
the village of Westminster and over at City Hall there were people | :21:08. | :21:12. | |
downing pints, thinking, thank goodness we won't have to deal with | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
Bob Crow again. Those who know Bob Crow say he was the great greatest | :21:17. | :21:20. | |
guy on earth. His members must have adored him because he did a | :21:21. | :21:25. | |
fantastic job for them. He did such a good job, the Tube drivers were | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
almost of pricing themselves out of a job, because apparently there was | :21:32. | :21:36. | |
a move to get driverless trains. They loved him for all the right | :21:37. | :21:42. | |
reasons. I would ask, is it the exclusive duty of a union leader to | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
look after his members only? Is there a greater responsibility for | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
the public good, over and above the interests of their members? And, I | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
don't know how many booking-class staff were at the heart of that | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
strike, but he brought London to a grinding halt day after day. I would | :22:01. | :22:04. | |
argue there was a better way to deal with it. I think it is wrong to | :22:05. | :22:09. | |
bring a capital city to its knees. Would workers in the NHS benefit | :22:10. | :22:15. | |
from having somebody like Bob Crow negotiating on their behalf? I am | :22:16. | :22:21. | |
shurp now he's gone the -- I am sure now he's gone, there are a number | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
springing up, saying right, we'll have a crack at. This look how he | :22:27. | :22:29. | |
was Lorded for looking after his members. If a new Bob Crow came out | :22:30. | :22:35. | |
for the NHS, he could do a good good for his members, but what would he | :22:36. | :22:41. | |
do for the nation? I don't think strike is the way forward with the | :22:42. | :22:46. | |
National Health Service. I didn't know Bob Crow. He was not a member | :22:47. | :22:56. | |
of the afrilliate afrilliated -- affiliated. He didn't use his | :22:57. | :23:00. | |
members for a battering run for his politics. He was an effective trade | :23:01. | :23:06. | |
unionists, sometimes using serious threats. Ultimately he was a | :23:07. | :23:13. | |
deal-maker. That is what you see with organisations he dealt with. We | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
need effective deal-makers, representing people in the kind of | :23:18. | :23:20. | |
economy we have been talking about. To have somebody in the business | :23:21. | :23:25. | |
environment, on your side, talking about pay, conditions, hours. All of | :23:26. | :23:29. | |
the things so many people feel exploited about in today's economy. | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
It is important. The important work that trade unions often do away from | :23:34. | :23:36. | |
the headlines and away from the cameras is often one of the best | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
kept secrets in Britain. Do you think the nurses are badly led to | :23:41. | :23:45. | |
get this deal which the Government? I think the circumstances in the NHS | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
are different. Public service workers, least of all, want to be | :23:51. | :23:57. | |
striking. I think Bob Crow if his ilk were engaged in NHS | :23:58. | :24:00. | |
negotiations, I think it would be the patients who would suffer, | :24:01. | :24:06. | |
because evidently he was a self-promotionalist who took, | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
particularly London, to a very difficult place. There was a lot of | :24:11. | :24:15. | |
people whose businesses suffered significantly. Who had nothing to do | :24:16. | :24:18. | |
with the infrastructure arguments taking place. The manner in which he | :24:19. | :24:24. | |
engaged on that was frankly destructive. What do you think? I | :24:25. | :24:28. | |
work in London. When the strikes were happening, I was there. Yes, it | :24:29. | :24:33. | |
was very hard. You have to kind of pull together, get to work, or work | :24:34. | :24:36. | |
from home. Do whatever you need to do. The reason for the strike was | :24:37. | :24:43. | |
needed. At the end of the day, the Mayor of London was, is still going | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
to close down ticket offices, going to lose jobs so, a strike is | :24:48. | :24:52. | |
sometimes necessary to draw attention to the public and it did | :24:53. | :24:59. | |
across the UK. I was on the board of Transport for London with Bob. I | :25:00. | :25:01. | |
worked with him for a period of time. There is an area in which | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
Douglas is right. He is someone you could do a deal with. Many of the | :25:07. | :25:10. | |
strikes that Bob led were unnecessary. I reckon when where you | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
called a strike it meant you were near an agreement. He had the last | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
throw with the strike to get a bit more out. I can understand that is | :25:20. | :25:22. | |
good for his members. In the end, you look at the kind of changes at | :25:23. | :25:27. | |
Transport for London, there virtually is not a job that looked | :25:28. | :25:31. | |
like the job it was ten years ago. He was somebody who, in a sense, | :25:32. | :25:36. | |
took his members along with that. But I wish he had been rather less | :25:37. | :25:40. | |
eager to publish the British public with these strikes. I think we could | :25:41. | :25:44. | |
have come to the same agreement without it, frankly. | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
I would only just add that there were actually no plans for any | :25:50. | :25:55. | |
compulsory redundancies. Like you, I travel in London. When the strikes | :25:56. | :25:59. | |
happen, they are hell for anybody who tries and moves around London. | :26:00. | :26:05. | |
Bob Crow brought London to its knees. He put a gun to our heads | :26:06. | :26:09. | |
over a plan that was not going to force anybody out of work in the | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
first place. I did not agree with those | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
practises. I have to say that Bob was passionate about his members. I | :26:18. | :26:26. | |
suspect that the heavenly choir will be on double time at weekends. We | :26:27. | :26:30. | |
have to keep on moving. Joining the debate, as you know From home by | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
text or Twitter. Keep at the Tweeting. | :26:35. | :26:53. | |
Simon Vintner, please? Has Ed Miliband made an electoral mistake | :26:54. | :27:03. | |
by not promising to match David Cameron's offer of an in/out | :27:04. | :27:07. | |
referendum? Well, I think this is a cold, hard | :27:08. | :27:12. | |
political calculation by Ed Miliband. I think it is an absolute | :27:13. | :27:19. | |
insult to voters. I think that Ed Miliband's calculation is that he's | :27:20. | :27:24. | |
not going to actually win over any, or substantially extra votes, by | :27:25. | :27:27. | |
offering a referendum, because when you look at the polls, they show | :27:28. | :27:31. | |
that the EU is not anywhere near the top of people's concerns. | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
However, I think that most people in this country would like a say on | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
whether we're in or out of Europe. It is decades since we have been | :27:42. | :27:45. | |
asked the question. What is it that politicians are afraid of? Why can't | :27:46. | :27:51. | |
they trust us to have a say? I think that Ed Miliband should just be bold | :27:52. | :27:54. | |
enough to let people have their say on that issue. | :27:55. | :27:57. | |
APPLAUSE Do you want to come in - the man in | :27:58. | :28:12. | |
the yellow tie? What worries me is that the next incoming Government | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
will negotiate with the European Union. It will come back and say, we | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
have a fantastic deal, we don't need to have a referendum. The other | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
worry is that if they are forced to have a referendum, Brussels will | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
then come in and say, we didn't like the answer to that question, you'll | :28:33. | :28:37. | |
have to ask it again. Like they did in Southern Ireland and around. | :28:38. | :28:42. | |
I don't think any of our politicians, political parties, have | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
got the nerve to say no to Brussels. You don't trust David Cameron | :28:49. | :28:55. | |
either? No. The last two promised a referendum and have reneged on those | :28:56. | :29:00. | |
promises. There's no way he'll get a fantastic deal. He knows that. We | :29:01. | :29:04. | |
all know that. Europe is not interested in really giving us many | :29:05. | :29:08. | |
concessions. David Cameron cannot get out of that pledge. If he is | :29:09. | :29:13. | |
Prime Minister after 2015, he'll have to honour that pledge, without | :29:14. | :29:14. | |
a doubt. Douglas Alexander, the question | :29:15. | :29:26. | |
was, as Ed Miliband made an electoral mistake not matching David | :29:27. | :29:33. | |
Cameron's offer? Unsurprisingly, I don't think so. I think the defining | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
issue of the next general election is not going to be Europe. The | :29:39. | :29:42. | |
defining issue is going to be the economy. In terms of what Ed | :29:43. | :29:46. | |
Miliband said this week, he said, what are going to be our priorities | :29:47. | :29:52. | |
if we are elected in 2015. It is about tackling the cost of living | :29:53. | :29:55. | |
crisis, protecting and rebuilding the NHS, making sure there are jobs | :29:56. | :30:00. | |
for young people. Some people would have different priorities but we | :30:01. | :30:04. | |
were being open and candid in saying those would be the defining | :30:05. | :30:08. | |
priorities. I do recognise, as the gentleman said, that to a certain | :30:09. | :30:12. | |
extent people have reached the limit of their tolerance in thinking more | :30:13. | :30:15. | |
powers are going to be handed to Brussels without people having their | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
say. That is why, as well as setting up an agenda for change in Europe, | :30:20. | :30:23. | |
to make it work better for the UK, Ed Miliband said they will be a | :30:24. | :30:27. | |
legal lock written into the laws of the UK that if there is a transfer | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
of sovereignty from the UK to the European Union in future, there will | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
be an in-out referendum. But we will also open in saying we are not | :30:37. | :30:40. | |
planning to transfer powers in the course of the next parliament. But | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
given the uncertainties about how the eurozone will develop, the past | :30:45. | :30:47. | |
experience of powers passing to Brussels, we want people to have the | :30:48. | :30:54. | |
assurance that it is written in. So you believe the majority of the | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
country wants to stay in the EU as it is, so you will not bend to the | :30:58. | :31:03. | |
demand for a referendum? These polls come and go. There was one at the | :31:04. | :31:07. | |
beginning of the week suggesting the majority of people want to stay in | :31:08. | :31:16. | |
the EU. Why not just ask them? I think the gentleman at the back is | :31:17. | :31:21. | |
right to be cynical. When you work Europe minister, they gave up a ?7 | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
million -- ?7 billion rebate. He is cynical about Cameron as well. I | :31:28. | :31:36. | |
know. Allow me to get there, David. Keep moving. Vapours I did over a | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
50% increase in the budget of Europe. And most importantly, the | :31:42. | :31:47. | |
Lisbon Treaty was signed without a referendum. Therein lies the | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
problem. The only party that can deliver a referendum is the | :31:52. | :31:54. | |
Conservative Party. The Labour Party does not want one, the Lib Dems | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
don't want to have one, although it was in their manifesto, clear-cut, | :31:59. | :32:04. | |
and UKIP cannot deliver referendum. So the only party that can deliver | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
it is the Conservative Party. We have promised it. I disagree with | :32:09. | :32:13. | |
Isabel when she says that Europe is not serious. Germany is serious | :32:14. | :32:17. | |
about wanting us in Europe and serious about talking about the sort | :32:18. | :32:20. | |
of settlement that we want out of Europe. The stability that you | :32:21. | :32:27. | |
provide for the British people is by laying this to rest in a referendum, | :32:28. | :32:30. | |
because we trust the British people, which is why I am so proud | :32:31. | :32:42. | |
to be British. It amuses me, really, that we are so besotted with | :32:43. | :32:45. | |
Europe. I stick with Douglas on the fact that when the time comes at the | :32:46. | :32:51. | |
next election, the British public, generally speaking, will be more | :32:52. | :32:54. | |
concerned about the economy and everything else. I am lucky enough | :32:55. | :33:01. | |
to own a shared in France. Do you think the French were worrying about | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
Europe. You own a shared in France? What kind of shared? The point is | :33:07. | :33:17. | |
that the Europeans are not fretting about this. All that we seem to do | :33:18. | :33:23. | |
is worry about Europe. I am absolutely a European and I pray we | :33:24. | :33:27. | |
stay in Europe. The only concern, I think, that you are going to face | :33:28. | :33:31. | |
when it comes up, is that the greatest fear for the voters in | :33:32. | :33:37. | |
Europe will be the fact that this country is getting terribly crowded. | :33:38. | :33:40. | |
But I think it's getting terribly crowded with the right people. EU | :33:41. | :33:52. | |
immigrants are great. As opposed to what? What are the wrong people? | :33:53. | :33:57. | |
Those that are coming not to work. Let me put it this way, anybody who | :33:58. | :34:01. | |
is prepared to get off their backside in Latvia or anywhere else, | :34:02. | :34:06. | |
learn a language, come here and work and make a success and make a | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
contribution and pay taxes, that is OK with me. I think the way that the | :34:10. | :34:24. | |
Conservatives have said an opt in, opt out referendum has simplified | :34:25. | :34:28. | |
the issue. And the fact that there is not enough transparency between | :34:29. | :34:31. | |
the relationship of the EU and Britain, and the British public | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
don't know it. It is just a political tool of the Conservative | :34:36. | :34:39. | |
Party to say this, to gain euro-sceptic voters, when it should | :34:40. | :34:42. | |
be showing the public what the relationship is, how integrated we | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
are and what particular areas it is in. Do you want to see a | :34:46. | :34:52. | |
referendum? Would you like to have a vote? You were not born when the | :34:53. | :34:57. | |
last one happened. I would particularly want to see a | :34:58. | :35:00. | |
referendum with more specifics, rather than a basic question. What | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
about the? Gesture Mark I agree with what Isabel said. I think there is a | :35:07. | :35:13. | |
whole generation of voters who would welcome a proper debate on the issue | :35:14. | :35:19. | |
and a vote at the end of it. Susan Kramer, it is your partners who are | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
promising a referendum, but you obviously side with the Labour Party | :35:24. | :35:28. | |
on this one. We welcome Labour joining us on this one. I want | :35:29. | :35:34. | |
reform in the European Union but you can't negotiate it if you have one | :35:35. | :35:38. | |
foot out the door. The only effective place to negotiate changes | :35:39. | :35:42. | |
when you are committed and in, and we think that is crucial. I also | :35:43. | :35:44. | |
agree that the first thing we have to do, the economy needs focus, not | :35:45. | :35:50. | |
two or three-year is of nonstop Europe discussion. But, and I think | :35:51. | :35:54. | |
this matters a great deal, I think we have to go out there campaigning | :35:55. | :35:59. | |
and doing what this lady says, talking about the positives of | :36:00. | :36:03. | |
Europe, the fact that 3.5 million jobs in this country, when we need | :36:04. | :36:08. | |
every job, are dependent on our relationship with Europe. Half of | :36:09. | :36:11. | |
our trade goes to Europe. People say we could sell to China, but that is | :36:12. | :36:17. | |
a bloody tough thing to do. Europe is the place where we can most | :36:18. | :36:22. | |
easily sell and grow. You look at the various companies and their | :36:23. | :36:29. | |
leaders. Everyone of says, I come to Britain because it is the base from | :36:30. | :36:35. | |
which I consult the whole single market. That is the argument we have | :36:36. | :36:41. | |
to make. So are the Tories making a mistake? Do you think the electorate | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
will turn their backs on UKIP and the Tories in favour of the | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
Liberals? I am more concerned that companies will turn their backs on | :36:51. | :36:54. | |
Britain. You are not worried about the electorate, because you are in | :36:55. | :37:00. | |
the House of Lords? I think it is absolutely key that companies are | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
looking at Britain, becoming uncertain about whether they should | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
invest here in future. We need those jobs. But what about Cameron and | :37:08. | :37:13. | |
UKIP? Are they on to a hiding to nothing by offering a referendum? | :37:14. | :37:20. | |
You can do a lot of things. Just answer the question. It may well be | :37:21. | :37:25. | |
extremely popular. So they might get back in on that basis. There are | :37:26. | :37:31. | |
European elections coming up. We are fighting for in in that campaign. | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
UKIP are fighting for out. It gives people a real choice. But it might | :37:36. | :37:42. | |
well be popular. When we say we are fighting for in, we know it is not | :37:43. | :37:45. | |
something, if you go out and do polling, that is likely to bring a | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
load of new votes, but it is something you have to do if you | :37:50. | :37:51. | |
believe in the future of this country. I am actually pro-Europe, | :37:52. | :37:57. | |
but it is exactly this kind of debate that the mainstream parties | :37:58. | :38:02. | |
seem afraid to have with the electorate, putting it to a vote. If | :38:03. | :38:05. | |
there are so many good reasons for being part of the EU, as I believe, | :38:06. | :38:10. | |
why is everyone running scared of putting the issue to bed once and | :38:11. | :38:15. | |
for all? If there were a referendum, you think people would vote yes. I | :38:16. | :38:20. | |
don't know, but I would personally vote yes. The man below. We used to | :38:21. | :38:28. | |
build boats, until, a little while ago, when I received a call, trading | :38:29. | :38:35. | |
standards officer. I don't want to interrupt, but where is this getting | :38:36. | :38:41. | |
us? The trading standards officer had new regulations from Europe. RU | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
yes or no to Europe as a result of this? He was going to say no because | :38:47. | :38:50. | |
he didn't know the first bloody thing about it, and it killed our | :38:51. | :38:55. | |
business. And if you go to Europe, the attitude from European people is | :38:56. | :39:01. | |
regulations for Europe... They don't bathe them. -- they don't obey them. | :39:02. | :39:13. | |
I am pro-European but I get tired of the debate which says people will | :39:14. | :39:17. | |
not buy our goods because we are not in Europe. Rolls-Royce engines sell | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
around Europe because they are the best engines in the world. The | :39:22. | :39:32. | |
gentleman makes an excellent point. Look at the automotive sector. In my | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
area, the West Midlands, we have Jaguar Land Rover. We now | :39:37. | :39:39. | |
manufacture more cars than ever before in this country. One car | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
rolls off the manufacturing lines every 20 seconds, and it sells | :39:45. | :39:49. | |
around the world, and of course into Europe. Before I became a politician | :39:50. | :39:53. | |
I bought businesses in Germany and across Europe. There is not a single | :39:54. | :39:58. | |
market in Europe. The only real single market is benighted States of | :39:59. | :40:01. | |
America, where you manufacture a single product and sell it across | :40:02. | :40:06. | |
the whole of America. -- the United States of America. If the referendum | :40:07. | :40:14. | |
comes along, would you vote yes or no? I would want to see what we | :40:15. | :40:18. | |
negotiate. The priority is to negotiate first, like any good | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
business. Secondly, let's have the debate, let's go out and talk about | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
this and weigh up the advantages of being in the under a new settlement, | :40:27. | :40:30. | |
versus pulling out. The British people deserve that. If you want to | :40:31. | :40:46. | |
sell around the world, is it better to be trying to negotiate free-trade | :40:47. | :40:48. | |
agreements with a country like China, 1.4 billion people, when you | :40:49. | :40:53. | |
are part of a single market of 500 million, or a single market of 60 | :40:54. | :40:59. | |
million. Let me finish, please. The relative negotiating strength of the | :41:00. | :41:03. | |
United Kingdom, relative to being part of the European Union, in | :41:04. | :41:06. | |
opening new markets for British exports would be much less if we | :41:07. | :41:11. | |
were outside Europe. But what is the error that David Cameron has made? | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
13 months ago he made a commitment that there would be an in-out | :41:16. | :41:20. | |
referendum in the UK by 2017. He did so when he believed there would be | :41:21. | :41:24. | |
big constitutional treaty changes in Europe at that time. He said, at | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
that point I will try and get a bet Asch macro a better deal for the UK. | :41:29. | :41:33. | |
That might have worked. But when they now look at the evidence, no | :41:34. | :41:40. | |
other European country is saying, on that timetable of 24 months from the | :41:41. | :41:46. | |
general election in 2015, will there be the redesign of the European | :41:47. | :41:48. | |
Union that David Cameron has promised his backbenchers to | :41:49. | :41:52. | |
deliver. The reason he made that speech is not because he suddenly | :41:53. | :41:56. | |
has a democratic impulse. It is because he is terrified of his | :41:57. | :41:59. | |
backbenchers and of Europe. -- of UKIP. That is bad for Britain. We | :42:00. | :42:06. | |
need changes, but not a John Major style government with the Tory party | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
obsessed about Europe to the extent of the exclusion of the economy the | :42:11. | :42:22. | |
health service and other priorities. As an ex-constituency chairmen, I | :42:23. | :42:25. | |
left the Conservative Party because of exactly this. Negotiate this | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
brand-new deal that will be marvellous. It will all be all | :42:32. | :42:35. | |
right. That is what I am worried about, that you will try to convince | :42:36. | :42:40. | |
the British public that we have this fantastic new Deal and everything | :42:41. | :42:44. | |
will be marvellous. Did you leave the Conservative Party for another | :42:45. | :42:50. | |
party? I just became totally disillusioned. I have voted | :42:51. | :42:53. | |
Conservative all through my Army career and the rest of my life. | :42:54. | :42:59. | |
Until this thing over Europe. Don't forget, when you talk about outside | :43:00. | :43:04. | |
parties, Britain, England turned its back on the Commonwealth at that | :43:05. | :43:08. | |
time. Australia, New Zealand, Canada, all of these countries. Not | :43:09. | :43:14. | |
only did they buy from us, they also fought with us in two world wars. We | :43:15. | :43:19. | |
are now in bed with Germany and France, two of the countries that, | :43:20. | :43:25. | |
we have been at war with Germany twice in one century. Now we are | :43:26. | :43:32. | |
depending on them for a living. We can't go further down that road, | :43:33. | :43:39. | |
because those two questions were the most popular. This next is the third | :43:40. | :43:46. | |
most popular. It is being asked by Lucy Monkhouse. Cambuslang shims | :43:47. | :43:50. | |
proposed by the EU on Russia be realistically applied, and what | :43:51. | :43:54. | |
would be the consequences for the UK. -- can the sanctions being | :43:55. | :44:01. | |
proposed. Can they be realistically applied? Whenever they are, I think | :44:02. | :44:14. | |
our friend Vladimir is having a chuckle. I don't think he cares. | :44:15. | :44:22. | |
Let me tell you, I had the pleasure of driving along the Ukraine, along | :44:23. | :44:29. | |
the shore of the Black Sea, through those millions of acres of | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
cornfield, which no doubt he's also looking at. I drove straight up to | :44:34. | :44:43. | |
the Siberia. The one thing that hit me time and again was the patriotism | :44:44. | :44:49. | |
of the Russian. I found myself in an old collective farm n the middle of | :44:50. | :44:53. | |
nowhere. It was the end of summer and the old boys were stripped to | :44:54. | :44:58. | |
the waist and looking at their tomatoes and they asked me, I think | :44:59. | :45:02. | |
they asked me where I was from. I told them and they beat their chest | :45:03. | :45:09. | |
and they said "Russia." The power, the patriotism and they are Putin's | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
boys. They want their Russia back. They are getting it back and there's | :45:15. | :45:18. | |
nothing we can do about it. The Russians will take as much pain as | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
you can throw at them. You think it is fun living through a Russian | :45:23. | :45:27. | |
winter or in Leningrad during the two-year siege. They are used to | :45:28. | :45:30. | |
hardship. They have long memories and they will endure it. A couple of | :45:31. | :45:35. | |
year, three years - they will wait it out. You don't think the West, | :45:36. | :45:39. | |
the EU and the United States should do anything at all? They can do what | :45:40. | :45:43. | |
they want. Do you think they should do anything at all? Yes, they | :45:44. | :45:48. | |
should. All I am saying is, it will not work. There's no shooting going | :45:49. | :45:56. | |
on. They are talking about having a word with the rich oligarchs and | :45:57. | :46:01. | |
taking their visas away. They may well say to Mr Putin, be reasonable, | :46:02. | :46:08. | |
they are putting us under pressure. He'll say, "Tough luck." I think he | :46:09. | :46:13. | |
has set his course and will not back down. Labour supports the coalition | :46:14. | :46:16. | |
on this. What do you say to what Nick says? I don't think it is clear | :46:17. | :46:22. | |
what course he has yet set. We don't know whether his ambitions extend to | :46:23. | :46:27. | |
the eastern Ukraine. That is critical because if he were to take | :46:28. | :46:31. | |
similar military action in the eastern Ukraine, then we have a | :46:32. | :46:34. | |
shooting war on the European continent in a way that I think | :46:35. | :46:41. | |
would be devastating and far more costly than any economic costs that | :46:42. | :46:44. | |
would be considered in terms of action by the European Union or the | :46:45. | :46:47. | |
Americans. So, what actually does the international community need to | :46:48. | :46:51. | |
do? You are right, this is a difficult issue. You are right, | :46:52. | :46:56. | |
David, this is an issue beyond Party Politics. William Hague and the | :46:57. | :46:59. | |
Prime Minister are struggling along with other western leaders to come | :47:00. | :47:04. | |
up with an appropriate response. First of all, you are trying to | :47:05. | :47:09. | |
change theal lus of risk in Putin's mind, so he says if I pursue my | :47:10. | :47:14. | |
ambitions, actually the costs and consequences will be serious. That | :47:15. | :47:17. | |
doesn't involve Western Forces fighting in Ukraine. I think he | :47:18. | :47:21. | |
needs to realise there would be costs and consequences. What would | :47:22. | :47:25. | |
they be? There was a meeting today, I understand between John Kerry and | :47:26. | :47:30. | |
the Russian Foreign Minister, is if this referendum, this illegal | :47:31. | :47:34. | |
referendum takes place in the Crimea on Saturday, European foreign meet | :47:35. | :47:46. | |
-- ministers will meet. Travel bans inwith anyone to invade the Crimea | :47:47. | :47:50. | |
and asset freezers. That is important. One of the | :47:51. | :47:52. | |
characteristics of the Russian economy is a huge element of capital | :47:53. | :47:57. | |
flight. People have moved money out of Russia into Western Europe. In | :47:58. | :48:02. | |
that sense, those 2,000 or so oligarchs and senior elites are | :48:03. | :48:08. | |
fatherful. They have put -- are fearful. They have put their money | :48:09. | :48:14. | |
into Western Europe. Do you they think would take the risk of not | :48:15. | :48:19. | |
being the place where they put their money, which keeps the City going | :48:20. | :48:24. | |
and would risk this by having sanctions? Unless we have bans, what | :48:25. | :48:31. | |
we need is a graduated hierarchy of steps to try and make sure that a | :48:32. | :48:34. | |
difficult situation doesn't get worse and we don't end up in | :48:35. | :48:37. | |
shooting. The final point I would make would be he does actually care | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
about what is called soft power, about Russia's reputation in the | :48:43. | :48:46. | |
world. He has just spent on the Russian Olympics. He does have an | :48:47. | :48:50. | |
interest in being respected. I think to economically and diplomatically | :48:51. | :48:55. | |
isolate Russia is necessary because the alternative is worse. A Russian | :48:56. | :49:01. | |
emboldened with further ambitions. What would be the level of fear | :49:02. | :49:06. | |
among central European countries that Putin would do this again? What | :49:07. | :49:11. | |
would be the judgment of our allies about the willingness of Europe to | :49:12. | :49:15. | |
take action when it takes place on its doorstep, if we cannot | :49:16. | :49:21. | |
contemplate economic or diplomatic measures? | :49:22. | :49:24. | |
You made the point this is all useless. What do you say to what | :49:25. | :49:30. | |
Douglas Alexander said? He said check the 200 oligarchs into a room | :49:31. | :49:36. | |
and say, you have been very naughty and we'll have to freeze everything. | :49:37. | :49:40. | |
What will they do? Go back and have a little coup or what? What can they | :49:41. | :49:47. | |
effectively do? I agree with everything Douglas has said on this. | :49:48. | :49:51. | |
I think there are two very clear messages that need to be sent to | :49:52. | :49:56. | |
Putin. The first is, this is not a tug-of-war between us and you over | :49:57. | :50:02. | |
the Ukraine. This mustn't be a serve row sum game. One must recognise | :50:03. | :50:08. | |
that Russia has deep interests - a gas pipeline, a 15 billion bailout | :50:09. | :50:13. | |
promised to the Ukraine. At the same time, you cannot allow Russia to | :50:14. | :50:19. | |
effectively annex part of the Ukraine. We promised the Ukraine | :50:20. | :50:25. | |
when the Soviet Union fell abart and Belarus and Ukraine gave up its | :50:26. | :50:31. | |
massive nuclear arsenal, that their integrity would be maintained. | :50:32. | :50:34. | |
Everyone signed up, including Russia. The point that Nick makes is | :50:35. | :50:40. | |
a good one. I would say this on his point - the world has changed. When | :50:41. | :50:45. | |
Russia invaded Hungary, how much do you think their Stock Market fell | :50:46. | :50:49. | |
by? Zero - because they did haven't a Stock Market. When they invaded | :50:50. | :50:55. | |
the Crimea, the Stock Markets fell by 10%. That will begin to hurt | :50:56. | :51:01. | |
Putin at home. Are you saying it would prevent him taking over the | :51:02. | :51:07. | |
Crimea? Get him out of Crimea? You hurt him by having diplomatic and | :51:08. | :51:11. | |
economic sanctions and you escalate those, by the way, of course it will | :51:12. | :51:15. | |
hurt us in the UK. That was the question, what effect it would have | :51:16. | :51:19. | |
on us here. But I think that cost will be much greater if we do | :51:20. | :51:24. | |
nothing and allow him to get away with annexation of the Crimea. | :51:25. | :51:32. | |
I am with Nick 100% about how Putin may think about the world and he has | :51:33. | :51:36. | |
got to rise back to of global fame. It is a cycle of history. We need to | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
be careful about sanctions and the comment was made about the Russians | :51:42. | :51:44. | |
being the most strategic chess players in the world. They make no | :51:45. | :51:48. | |
move without the other four being in place. You mention about the energy, | :51:49. | :51:52. | |
you know the gas pipelines into the UK and Europe would be enough to | :51:53. | :51:57. | |
stop any sanctions having an effect. You, Sir? The chairman, or chief | :51:58. | :52:02. | |
executive of Black Rock mentioned the power of the capital markets in | :52:03. | :52:07. | |
removing 10% of the Stock Market value. You also mention the Ukraine | :52:08. | :52:14. | |
removed the nuclear arsenal to get protection from NATO. Do you think | :52:15. | :52:19. | |
they made the wrong call? They should not have trusted NATO and the | :52:20. | :52:24. | |
West? Do you reckon they would have still been in the same situation? I | :52:25. | :52:29. | |
tell you what worries me is it seems both sides are getting locked into a | :52:30. | :52:37. | |
stalemate. When you look at - Putin has moved Russian soldiers into the | :52:38. | :52:41. | |
Crimea. I cannot see any way that he can, without losing face, which is | :52:42. | :52:47. | |
something that he dares about enormously, remove his troops | :52:48. | :52:52. | |
without having taken control of the Crimea. So, I think if this is a | :52:53. | :52:57. | |
chess game, he's got himself into a situation where his capacity to be | :52:58. | :53:02. | |
able to move is incredibly limited. That's on the side of the West and | :53:03. | :53:11. | |
the interim Ukrainian Government - sanction sanctions, it is hard to | :53:12. | :53:14. | |
see how they can be effective enough, even if we try and escalate | :53:15. | :53:19. | |
them to try and change this picture. At any moment, that is a sum event | :53:20. | :53:25. | |
could trigger a behaviour in the Ukraine, where people who have been | :53:26. | :53:29. | |
incredibly self-controlled and who have resisted turning to the gun | :53:30. | :53:33. | |
might suddenly spark an event. You know, you just think of the echoes | :53:34. | :53:37. | |
of the First World War, where people, with the best will in the | :53:38. | :53:41. | |
world, tried to manoeuvre around a situation and ended up in the most | :53:42. | :53:45. | |
horrific kind of conflict. I am behind every move that we can try | :53:46. | :53:50. | |
and manage. I thought John Kerry hit it spot-on, by trying to constantly | :53:51. | :53:54. | |
recognise Russia's genuine interests, by not trying to demean | :53:55. | :54:00. | |
Putin in any way, but to try and make it clear that we have to see | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
deescalation. I am really worried by this situation. I have to say, I | :54:07. | :54:10. | |
agree with Nick. Basically, I hardly feel that we have the moral ground | :54:11. | :54:15. | |
on telling Russia who to invade, et cetera, considering we went into | :54:16. | :54:19. | |
Afghanistan, Iraq. How dare we start to say, you cannot go into that | :54:20. | :54:23. | |
country! You cannot interfere with them, when we are doing it and | :54:24. | :54:28. | |
America themselves! APPLAUSE | :54:29. | :54:35. | |
I think the other problem we have is that the way the world sees us and | :54:36. | :54:41. | |
any bad guy in the world sees us, has been massively compromised by | :54:42. | :54:46. | |
our inability to intervene effectively in Syria. Putin has seen | :54:47. | :54:50. | |
that Cameron couldn't even get a vote through the Commons for | :54:51. | :54:56. | |
intervention in a case where thousands, tens of thousands, | :54:57. | :54:59. | |
hundreds of thousands, possibly, of civilians are being starved, shot | :55:00. | :55:09. | |
So, to let me finish, if we cannot even intervene, where there are | :55:10. | :55:14. | |
clear atrocities taking place against civilians, what can we | :55:15. | :55:19. | |
possibly do here? What do you say to his point? The gentleman there? I | :55:20. | :55:25. | |
feel we don't have the moral ground. Basically, as you said, we have | :55:26. | :55:31. | |
mucked it up, so many times sticking our noses in. I think Russia is | :55:32. | :55:35. | |
wrong. I feel for the Ukrainian people. To go around and think we | :55:36. | :55:38. | |
can tell other countries what to do when we have done the same thing | :55:39. | :55:42. | |
over the years! This man here in the blue and then | :55:43. | :55:46. | |
we have to stop. Does it show it was prudent of the Government to reduce | :55:47. | :55:51. | |
our afternooned forces in the light of an uncertain world? We had a ?38 | :55:52. | :55:57. | |
billion black hole in the Ministry of Defence that we inherited. We had | :55:58. | :56:01. | |
to make tough decisions. I think the decisions were the right ones to | :56:02. | :56:06. | |
make sure that we can deliver a force that can react to situations | :56:07. | :56:09. | |
around the world. I think this situation is very different, by the | :56:10. | :56:15. | |
way. I think, in terms of both procurement, hardware, we are in a | :56:16. | :56:18. | |
better place today than we have ever been. The head of the Army is | :56:19. | :56:23. | |
warning about moral disengagement and the reduction of disarmament... | :56:24. | :56:30. | |
I am an ex-soldier. My friends are leaving. They want to go. They are | :56:31. | :56:33. | |
fed up. So, is it true - you got the Army | :56:34. | :56:38. | |
now saying look at what is happening in the Ukraine, you should not have | :56:39. | :56:44. | |
cut the Armed Forces this much? I don't think you could argue that | :56:45. | :56:48. | |
even if we had double or triple the armed forces that we have, that that | :56:49. | :56:52. | |
would be the key difference to the Ukraine. The United States has | :56:53. | :56:56. | |
enormous military resources. That is not what is at play in this | :56:57. | :57:00. | |
situation. It is trying to find a way out of a circumstance in which a | :57:01. | :57:04. | |
Russian leader has backed himself into a corner and it is hard to see | :57:05. | :57:09. | |
a way out that doesn't totally violate... You think he has backed | :57:10. | :57:13. | |
into a corner? I do. I understand what we are talking about the double | :57:14. | :57:16. | |
standards with Iraq. We need to understand who we are dealing in | :57:17. | :57:20. | |
Vladimir Putin. I don't think he cares what we have done. He'll do | :57:21. | :57:23. | |
what he wants and no-one will stop him. You don't think he is backed | :57:24. | :57:28. | |
into a corner, in other word? I don't think he is scared of being | :57:29. | :57:32. | |
backed into a corner. Thank you. Our time is up. Next we'll be in | :57:33. | :57:38. | |
Warrington next Thursday. It is the day after the budget, so we'll have | :57:39. | :57:41. | |
the Chief Secretary of the Treasury here to explain what is going on and | :57:42. | :57:48. | |
Andy Burnham for Labour and the crime writer Val McDermott too. The | :57:49. | :57:57. | |
week after we'll be in Brighton. You either live near one of them or you | :57:58. | :58:02. | |
can commute back and forward. Apply via our website. The address is on | :58:03. | :58:06. | |
the screen, as ever. And the telephone number. | :58:07. | :58:11. | |
And, as ever, if you are watching on BBC Radio 5 Live, you can continue | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
the debate with Question Time, extra time. Thank you to all of you on the | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
panel who came here and thank you who came to take part in this | :58:21. | :58:23. | |
programme here in Nottingham. It is very good to have had you here. I | :58:24. | :58:26. | |
hope you'll watch the programme next week. From all of us on Question | :58:27. | :58:34. | |
Time, until next thurks good night. -- Thursday, good night. | :58:35. | :58:41. |