26/05/2016 Question Time


26/05/2016

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Transcript


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This is Question Time.

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Good evening and welcome, whether you're watching on TV,

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listening on Radio 5 Live, here in the audience.

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Welcome to our panel.

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Tonight, the former leader of the Labour Party, Ed Miliband,

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in his first appearance on Question Time

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since last year's election.

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The Conservative former Europe Minister

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and chairman of the party, campaigning for Brexit, David Davis.

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The Green Party's former and maybe future, leader,

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Caroline Lucas.

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David Cameron's close political ally for many years,

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maybe slightly less now that he's urging Brexit,

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Steve Hilton.

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And the crime writer with nine novels to her credit

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and a Guardian columnist to boot, Dreda Say Mitchell.

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APPLAUSE

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Good, thank you very much

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and just before we take our first question,

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remember, as ever, Facebook,

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Twitter, texting 83981...

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If you want to comment on anything that's said here -

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do that and everybody will get to hear your views.

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Now, if I can find the questions, which I have,

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our first question tonight is from Mary Bird, please.

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-Mary Bird.

-Hello.

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In light of the EU migration figures published today,

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how on earth are our public services going to cope?

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Ed Miliband.

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Well, Mary, I think they can cope

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but I think it obviously means that there are stresses and strains.

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And this goes to the bigger question

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of whether we should be within the European Union,

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remain, or leave.

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I understand people have concerns about immigration

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but you have to look at the balance of the argument, here.

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And it seems to me the balance of the argument is this -

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we know from official figures

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that people who come here from the European Union contribute

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about £2.5 billion more

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in terms of taxes than they claim in benefits.

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We know we've got 100,000 people from the EU

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working in our public services, which you asked about.

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-Now, on the other side...

-Excuse me.

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I'm talking about schools, hospitals,

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the transport system,

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that's what I am talking about.

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-Yeah, and there are...

-They are heaving.

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And there are 250,000 people from the EU

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propping up our schools and our hospitals

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and our social care systems.

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APPLAUSE

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But...but, Mary, I hear it in my own constituency.

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I don't deny there are pressures,

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but I ask you and the audience to think about this.

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First of all, economically, we are better off in the European Union.

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The Institute for Fiscal Studies, a respected independent think-tank -

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not the Government,

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not the Governor of the Bank of England -

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said this week there would be a £20-£40 billion black hole

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in our public finances if we left.

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Now, the question for you and the audience is -

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and this is, I think, the answer -

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let's use the money we get from being in the European Union,

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the extra taxes, to relieve the pressures on public services

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in Ipswich and elsewhere, but for goodness' sake,

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let's not throw the baby out with the bathwater,

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leave the European Union, and make us worse off,

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because that's, I believe, what would happen.

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APPLAUSE

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On the Remain side, just briefly,

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are you embarrassed by the figures that came out,

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showing the second-highest on record this year?

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-No.

-You're not embarrassed by it?

-Embarrassed?

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You don't think it's difficult for the campaign, no?

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-No.

-All right, fine...

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I think it is an important point, because I am the son of immigrants.

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My parents came here as refugees

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from the Nazis, from Europe,

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from Belgium - my dad in 1940,

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my mum, from Poland, after the Second World War.

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They were European migrants.

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They've made a contribution to this country. And, look...

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So I think immigration has benefits. I think people make contributions.

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We've got to use the extra income generated

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to relieve the pressures that people here and elsewhere face.

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You've said that. David Davis.

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Well, he should be worried.

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I mean, this country has been welcoming to migrants

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for decades, centuries,

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as, indeed, Ed indicates,

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but welcoming to them in numbers

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which we can cope with.

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And 300,000-odd net migration every year,

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a new city every year...

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The questioner is quite right, Mary is quite right,

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it overwhelms the ability of schools, hospitals, housing,

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which we cannot change very fast, is overwhelmed.

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Young people can't afford houses as a result.

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Ed says it makes more money.

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Well, I'm afraid these numbers don't stand up.

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Those numbers are based on the very real and proper calculation

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that most migrants come here to work,

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they don't come here to be dependent on benefits.

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So that calculation of how much benefit is claimed,

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how much tax is paid, on that basis, is right.

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But it does not take on board all the extra public services,

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it doesn't take on board all the extra transport,

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it doesn't take on board

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all the other pressures on society that it creates.

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That is not the fault of the migrant.

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If I were Romanian, I'd be here now.

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If I was a Greek, a young Greek, I'd be here now,

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cos this is where the jobs are.

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But it's the Government's responsibility

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and this is out of control - full stop.

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This is out of control.

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What the Government ought to do is to get this back in control

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for the interests of the country

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and, frankly, also for the interests of many of the migrants

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and the only way that can be done is by leaving the European Union.

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APPLAUSE

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Caroline Lucas.

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Well, in economic terms alone, if you leave the European Union,

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you are looking at a massive loss of economic wealth to this country,

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you're looking at a loss of jobs

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and we can argue how much that figure is,

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there are different estimates out there,

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but when you've got everybody from the OECD to the IMF

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to the Bank of England, all of them saying

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that there will be a net economic loss to Britain

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if we leave the single market,

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then I think that's something that should give us pause.

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But, you know, I don't want to sit here apologising for the fact

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that membership of the EU gives us free movement of people.

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I want to sit here and actually celebrate it

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and I appreciate that might be controversial...

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APPLAUSE

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But I think there is something rather amazing

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about having the choice, for those people that do have a choice,

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to be able to live and love and work and retire

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in 28 different member states.

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We know, of course, that many British people make the most of that

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by going to Spain and many other parts of the EU,

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just as people come to our country.

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I do accept that the costs and benefits

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are not terribly equally spread across the UK,

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which is why I agree with Ed

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that we need some kind of immigration dividend,

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or a solidarity fund, whatever we want to call it.

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But given that there is a net benefit that people are bringing,

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not just in terms of our communities and our culture,

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but a net economic benefit,

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then let us use that money to be able to invest in the services

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in areas that are under pressure.

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So you think, in reply to Mary,

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your view is that the public services can be funded properly?

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I think if the political will is there, of course they can.

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But we can also look at parts of the country where, right now...

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We have such centralisation in London and the south-east

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that that puts pressure, irrespective of immigration.

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If we had a more balanced regional policy across the country,

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I think we could have all the benefits

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and have less pressure as well.

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Let's hear from the audience, then I'll come back to our panel.

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APPLAUSE

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The woman there, in orange, or pink, is it? There - you, madam.

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Is it because the economic union is not working,

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the European Union is not working,

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that there are so many people that are out of work in Europe?

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It's a broken club,

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that so many people are actually coming to Britain.

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-You think the outfit isn't delivering?

-Yeah.

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Let's hold on to that point.

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You in the blue shirt on the gangway.

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Hold on a second, we'll get a microphone to you.

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I don't think the debate about immigration in the EU

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should be about numbers or economic immigrants,

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if they benefit the UK or not - it should be about the choice,

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and if we have the choice to control our immigration policy.

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Even if we left the EU,

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we could then choose whether or not we had mass migration.

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If we elected a government

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with a policy of immigration of hundreds of thousands, fine.

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But at the minute, as a member of the EU,

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we don't have that choice.

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OK. Steve Hilton.

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Like Ed, I am very pro-immigration,

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and I suspect also because, like Ed,

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my parents were immigrants to this country.

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I owe everything I have, all my opportunities,

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to the fact that this country welcomed my parents.

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I am also an immigrant now from this country to America,

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so I am very pro-immigration.

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But precisely because of that,

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I think we should be completely open on immigration.

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Let me explain what I mean by that.

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It is clearly common sense

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that we can't have unlimited numbers of people coming to this country.

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We all agree there has to be a limit,

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there has to be a certain number beyond which it is not sustainable,

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as we have heard.

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So the question is, who comes within that limit?

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What we have right now, through being in the EU,

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is a situation where we have unlimited numbers of people

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coming from Europe without any say or control over it.

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What that means is that actually,

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we are shutting the doors to people from beyond Europe

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that could be fantastically valuable contributors

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to our economy and our society,

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people from China, or India,

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entrepreneurs and scientists from all around the world

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who are shut out because we have to take,

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as I've put it, unlimited numbers of Hungarian waiters.

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Now, I have got nothing against Hungarians,

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cos I am one.

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But the truth is, we should be able to decide who comes to our country.

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That should be a choice for us,

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and as long as we are in the EU, it is a choice we can't make.

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So you are saying the wrong kind of immigrants are coming?

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I think it is a fundamentally undemocratic situation

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where something as important as this is out of our control.

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APPLAUSE

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I am with you, Steve, completely...

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Hold on a second - OK. Dreda.

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I'm with you completely. You know, we're all here,

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it seems like we're all the children of migrants.

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But when my parents came here in the '60s,

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I would say they were quite unskilled.

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So are you saying my parents shouldn't have come here?

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Cos they weren't a doctor, they weren't a nurse.

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Both my parents left school before they were...

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My dad left school before he was 15.

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-Would you bar the door to my dad?

-I think that we need to have...

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APPLAUSE

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It's a great question

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and I think the answer to the question

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is that we need to discuss it, we need to have a policy on it

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and we need to be able as a country to come to a view

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about the answer to that question.

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And it will always be the case, I hope,

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that this country welcomes people who need refuge

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from things that are going on around the world that are...

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But I also think...

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The question as well, is I think...

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I hear what people are saying,

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but I also think if you are talking about the pressure on services,

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you have to dig deeper and talk about those services.

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So, for example, with education -

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what we know is happening at the moment

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is we've got a massive shortage in terms of teachers.

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We've got teachers leaving the profession whole-scale.

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Every time I meet a former colleague -

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I used to teach in schools, for nearly 20 years -

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they have all left.

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So that is a big issue.

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Another issue is in terms of the NHS -

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why is it there have been huge cutbacks

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in terms of training for nurses?

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-APPLAUSE

-We can't keep blaming migrants.

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There are lots of issues running parallel to each other

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and I agree with you, but we can't just have a policy about migration.

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If you are talking about public services,

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you've got to have a big, overarching policy

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that looks at all the implications.

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Dreda, what is your view on migration?

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Do you think, from the EU, it should be unlimited?

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I think... You know, cos my whole thing about voting for Leave

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is that I've got a real issue with the EU and democracy.

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I think it should be a democratically-elected government.

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We live in a democracy, and they should have the right,

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like with all other big policies,

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to choose what their migration policy is.

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I think it is wrong that somebody else chooses that.

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OK. Caroline?

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APPLAUSE

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Can you deal with that point,

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that it's wrong that somebody else decides?

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I'm saying the EU is made up of the Council of Ministers

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where we do have our minister there on behalf of the UK.

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We also have members of the European Parliament.

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The EU Commission, which is not... The EU Commission is not elected.

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The Commission is for civil servants.

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But the EU Commission, nothing seems to happen without them.

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-They have to kick-start it.

-Can I just finish?

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..those meetings and seen what goes on...

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I used to be a member of the European Parliament for ten years

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and I have seen up close what goes on.

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I can tell you that essentially,

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there is more democracy, ironically, in the EU

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than there is here.

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At least your MEPs

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are elected through a system of proportional representation.

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We have a government here elected on 24% of the eligible vote.

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The idea that that is somehow democracy is a complete travesty.

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Steve, you have obviously been in, or sat in,

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the Council of Ministers, have you?

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-I've observed it.

-Tell us about it.

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First of all, I absolutely agree with Caroline

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that there are serious problems we need to fix in our democracy.

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I completely agree with that.

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Could you have a word with David Cameron about it?

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Let him have his say, now. LAUGHTER

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I've had many words over the years on that topic, as well as others.

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The point is that in the EU, obviously,

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when the whole thing is run basically on a committee basis,

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where you have 28 countries, and probably more,

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everything is a negotiation

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and that means that everything has to be a compromise.

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Now, there is nothing wrong with compromise.

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Life is about compromise, government is about compromise.

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But the truth is it should be the case that the compromises

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are ones that we can get involved in,

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that the people affected by those compromises

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can have a say over what is the result.

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-That is impossible if we are in the EU.

-OK.

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APPLAUSE The woman there...

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Yes?

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Returning to the original question,

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GP practices within Ipswich are having to close their lists

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because they are unable to take any more patients

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because they have so many deep problems.

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One of those problems,

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and a very serious part of those problems,

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are the number of EU migrants that are in Ipswich.

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It's a...

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They can't cope with the language difficulties,

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the numbers...it's just...

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The system is folding.

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You are talking of patients, not of nurses and doctors?

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Patients, the number of patients. They haven't...

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-They are overwhelmed by it.

-Yeah.

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I want to hear from somebody who's pro-Remain

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on this point about immigration.

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Yes, all right, you.

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I worked in the NHS, I worked in Colchester,

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since I left school.

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Blaming immigration on the shortfalls of the NHS

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is not true.

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The NHS is struggling because of the Conservative Government cuts

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made to the NHS, not because of immigration.

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APPLAUSE

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So, David, it is the Conservatives' fault.

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It is always the Conservatives' fault, isn't it?

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APPLAUSE

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Look, we were talking about

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the pressures brought about by immigration

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and we were also talking about democracy.

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Let's start with getting a few facts straight.

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I was there for a few years.

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Caroline is wrong. The Commission IS the Government.

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The Government in any country

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is the one that initiates the legislation,

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starts the ball rolling, writes the Act of Parliament.

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It is the commissioners that do that.

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And how do we choose the commissioners?

0:16:340:16:36

We choose people who their electorates have rejected.

0:16:360:16:39

Jean-Claude Juncker was rejected.

0:16:390:16:42

I appointed Neil Kinnock -

0:16:420:16:43

he was another one who the electorate rejected!

0:16:430:16:47

Let's be clear, this is NOT a democracy.

0:16:470:16:50

Why did you appoint somebody who had been rejected?

0:16:500:16:52

Why didn't you make a better choice, if you thought...?

0:16:520:16:55

-It was the right choice.

-Oh, it was the right choice?

0:16:550:16:57

-Listen...

-Hang on a moment! You can't say it's the right choice

0:16:570:17:00

-and then say the thing doesn't work.

-The only way...

0:17:000:17:02

-STEVE:

-The right undemocratic choice.

0:17:020:17:04

You have not got any option - you can't elect a commissioner.

0:17:040:17:06

You're not allowed to - the Government nominates them.

0:17:060:17:09

It nominates - in those days - one from each party.

0:17:090:17:12

The Labour Party nominated me

0:17:120:17:14

and I said, "We can't block the Labour Party."

0:17:140:17:17

Let's come back to the point - the point here is about democracy.

0:17:170:17:20

Who knows best what our public services can deal with?

0:17:200:17:25

Who knows best how many nurses we need?

0:17:250:17:27

Who knows best how many houses we can build?

0:17:270:17:30

Our government.

0:17:300:17:31

Not some commissioner in Brussels. Our government.

0:17:310:17:34

-CAROLINE:

-This is a travesty.

0:17:340:17:35

Which is why WE should control the number of immigrants,

0:17:350:17:38

and where they come from and who they are.

0:17:380:17:41

APPLAUSE

0:17:410:17:43

Ed Miliband.

0:17:430:17:45

I do say that the people for Leave in this argument, I fear,

0:17:470:17:50

are selling an illusion.

0:17:500:17:52

I just want to say to this audience,

0:17:520:17:54

the problems we face as a country, not just migration -

0:17:540:17:58

climate change, terrorism, tax avoidance, all of those issues -

0:17:580:18:03

we can't deal with them on our own any more.

0:18:030:18:04

We've got to...

0:18:040:18:06

APPLAUSE AND SCATTERED BOOING

0:18:060:18:09

-Let me...let me...

-AUDIENCE MEMBERS SHOUT

0:18:090:18:13

Let me explain what I mean by that.

0:18:130:18:15

The truth is, these problems cross borders.

0:18:150:18:19

Powerful corporations cross borders.

0:18:190:18:21

Corporations, it's all about corporations.

0:18:210:18:24

Here we go - it's always about big business, corporations.

0:18:240:18:27

Are we actually saying, David, that we, as a country,

0:18:270:18:30

the fifth-largest economy...?

0:18:300:18:32

-Ed, actually.

-Sorry! Ed...

0:18:320:18:33

LAUGHTER AND APPLAUSE

0:18:330:18:37

Ed, Ed - sorry, of course I know it is Ed, sorry!

0:18:370:18:42

I interrupted your stride, sorry.

0:18:420:18:44

-DAVID DAVIS:

-I have the same problem...

0:18:440:18:46

-ED:

-My mum makes the same mistake.

0:18:460:18:48

-LAUGHTER

-We are the fifth-largest economy.

0:18:480:18:52

Are we actually saying we cannot do this on our own,

0:18:520:18:55

working in partnership with other people?

0:18:550:18:58

APPLAUSE

0:18:580:19:00

You said it exactly right, Dreda, at the end -

0:19:040:19:07

working in partnership with other people.

0:19:070:19:09

We're in a partnership with the United States.

0:19:090:19:12

Are we in a union with them? No, we are not.

0:19:120:19:14

Let me just.... Let's take a very concrete example, here.

0:19:140:19:17

We have four weeks' paid holiday in this country.

0:19:170:19:20

We have equal rights for men and women -

0:19:200:19:22

not enough, but we've made progress on it.

0:19:220:19:24

We have maternity leave. Those things didn't happen

0:19:240:19:27

because of a Conservative Government or a Labour Government.

0:19:270:19:30

They happened because across the European Union,

0:19:300:19:32

you had countries joining together,

0:19:320:19:34

saying, "We are not going to let companies

0:19:340:19:36

"play one country off against another."

0:19:360:19:38

It is the same on the environment.

0:19:380:19:41

And actually, we were able to deliver those things.

0:19:410:19:44

-But we also, we also...

-All right...

0:19:440:19:46

We also live at a time when we've got zero-hours contracts as well.

0:19:460:19:50

Is that good? What are the EU doing about that?

0:19:500:19:53

Dreda, hold on a second. I have got a lot of people

0:19:530:19:55

in the audience who want to speak,

0:19:550:19:57

and I want to hear from them, hold on a second.

0:19:570:19:59

And Steve Hilton has got a comment...

0:19:590:20:01

I've only been here since Monday and I'm already absolutely sick

0:20:010:20:06

of hearing, from the Remain side,

0:20:060:20:08

these silly scares and phoney figures

0:20:080:20:11

and overstatements of what people are saying.

0:20:110:20:13

APPLAUSE

0:20:130:20:16

THEY TALK OVER EACH OTHER

0:20:160:20:19

-That is the most...

-Let me finish.

0:20:190:20:21

You're coming from your side of the debate.

0:20:210:20:23

Let me finish the point, please.

0:20:230:20:25

-That is the richest criticism I could ever imagine.

-But Ed...

0:20:250:20:28

Your side of the debate.

0:20:280:20:30

But Ed...

0:20:300:20:31

To say what he just did, to present this as a choice between

0:20:310:20:37

total isolation and cooperation in Europe

0:20:370:20:41

is completely ridiculous.

0:20:410:20:43

Of course it's true that we need to cooperate on things

0:20:430:20:46

like the environment and terrorism and global issues,

0:20:460:20:49

and of course it's true that we can do that outside the EU,

0:20:490:20:52

as an independent country. This is a really serious debate.

0:20:520:20:56

It's complicated and there are many sides to it,

0:20:560:20:59

and I wish that the Remain side would stop simplifying it and

0:20:590:21:02

treating people like they can't understand complicated arguments.

0:21:020:21:06

All right.

0:21:060:21:07

We've got... We've got more questions about Europe,

0:21:070:21:12

and I'll come to them,

0:21:120:21:14

but I'll just take one or two more members of the audience.

0:21:140:21:16

You, there, first of all.

0:21:160:21:18

The largest comment against, sort of, remaining within the EU

0:21:180:21:22

seems to be all of this red tape, all of this democracy,

0:21:220:21:25

that isn't happening.

0:21:250:21:26

I just want to say, I'm not sure if I actually want to

0:21:260:21:29

hand back more power to the Government

0:21:290:21:32

that has made £12 million worth of cuts to welfare,

0:21:320:21:35

that has seen child poverty rise by £500 million or 500,000.

0:21:350:21:40

I just don't want to see that.

0:21:400:21:42

It doesn't seem like, if they get all this power,

0:21:420:21:44

-they'll be doing things that are for the people.

-You think it's...

0:21:440:21:47

-They need someone to answer to.

-APPLAUSE

0:21:470:21:50

Are you saying, in effect, you feel safer in the EU

0:21:500:21:54

rather than outside?

0:21:540:21:55

Well, like the non-discrimination and gender equality laws

0:21:550:21:59

that were spoken about,

0:21:590:22:00

how do we know that our government is going to protect those?

0:22:000:22:03

And also, I don't trust them to do it for the people.

0:22:030:22:05

You are absolutely right. You are absolutely right.

0:22:050:22:09

Woman in orange, there, please.

0:22:090:22:11

The woman in orange, there, yes.

0:22:110:22:12

The whole nub of the EU referendum is not the economy,

0:22:120:22:17

it's not migration.

0:22:170:22:19

We've got to consider what it's truly about.

0:22:190:22:22

What's at the heart of the referendum is -

0:22:220:22:25

do we want to govern ourselves?

0:22:250:22:27

I've got a question that I'll come to next, but let me...

0:22:310:22:35

You in the checked shirt, there, sir.

0:22:350:22:37

Caroline, wasn't your answer in your first response

0:22:370:22:41

to do with disproportionality?

0:22:410:22:43

So you talked about the south-east and London

0:22:430:22:45

having a great strangle on its services.

0:22:450:22:48

If you lift that argument up one level,

0:22:480:22:50

aren't you arguing with yourself?

0:22:500:22:52

Because we are part of Europe and there's a disproportionate

0:22:520:22:54

number of people coming to this country.

0:22:540:22:57

No, I think that-that people are going to many different countries

0:22:570:23:00

of the EU and the point I'm making is about subsidiarity,

0:23:000:23:04

it's about where power and democracy need to lie,

0:23:040:23:07

and there are certain things that absolutely need to be done

0:23:070:23:10

at EU level, in terms of tackling the environment,

0:23:100:23:13

in terms of tackling the issues of common workers' rights,

0:23:130:23:16

and that's why we need the EU.

0:23:160:23:17

This idea that governing ourselves, that essentially we are...

0:23:170:23:20

Do you not believe in democracy?

0:23:200:23:22

Do you not believe in democracy?

0:23:220:23:25

It's because I believe in democracy that I am supporting

0:23:250:23:28

the EU where there are issues...

0:23:280:23:31

that we cannot solve on our own.

0:23:310:23:33

All right. All right.

0:23:330:23:35

Let's end this section. Let's end this... Let's end this.

0:23:350:23:38

Caroline, we've had 25 minutes on this.

0:23:380:23:41

We've got other questions that I want to come to.

0:23:410:23:43

We've had quite a lot of people from the Brexit side.

0:23:430:23:46

Anybody from the Remain side who wants to comment? You do, there.

0:23:460:23:49

The man, there. Yeah.

0:23:490:23:52

-You're a Remainer, are you?

-I am, yes.

0:23:520:23:54

All right.

0:23:540:23:56

I'd like to say that I believe Brexit have done a great job

0:23:560:23:58

in actually pointing the finger, wagging it solely at the EU

0:23:580:24:03

migration situation.

0:24:030:24:05

333,000 was the net figure today,

0:24:050:24:08

of which 150,000 were from outside the EU.

0:24:080:24:11

So if the hospitals are overflowing, why did we let in 150,000?

0:24:110:24:15

And the second point is -

0:24:150:24:17

the big danger here is, if we pull out of the EU,

0:24:170:24:20

there is nothing to stop illegal immigration numbers rising

0:24:200:24:24

because there will be nothing to stop anyone in the EU

0:24:240:24:27

just saying, "If you want to go to the UK,

0:24:270:24:29

"just camp out in Calais,

0:24:290:24:30

"camp out in Amsterdam, and just come across to Clacton

0:24:300:24:33

"any time you like."

0:24:330:24:34

OK. Thank you. Another point from somebody who's a Remainer.

0:24:340:24:38

You're a Remainer, sir?

0:24:380:24:40

You're a Remainer, the woman there, on the end? Yes.

0:24:400:24:42

Just coming back to the original question about...

0:24:420:24:45

-about services...

-Good idea.

0:24:450:24:47

I completely agree with Ed that migrants prop up our services.

0:24:470:24:50

I recently very badly injured my shoulder.

0:24:500:24:52

About 80% of the medical professionals I have dealt with

0:24:520:24:55

have been not from this country.

0:24:550:24:57

If those people had not been in the NHS,

0:24:570:24:58

I would have had to have waited a lot longer to receive

0:24:580:25:01

the treatment that I've had,

0:25:010:25:02

so they do prop up our services and they make a massive contribution,

0:25:020:25:05

and we will miss out on that if we leave.

0:25:050:25:07

Thank you. Right, we're going to... APPLAUSE

0:25:070:25:10

Before we take the next question, let me just explain Question Time's

0:25:130:25:18

progress in the next two or three weeks.

0:25:180:25:21

We're going to be in Cardiff next week,

0:25:210:25:24

we're going to be in Folkestone the week after that,

0:25:240:25:26

but in the final week before the vote,

0:25:260:25:28

we've actually got a special series of three programmes -

0:25:280:25:32

Nottingham, York and Milton Keynes.

0:25:320:25:35

In Nottingham, Michael Gove is going to be facing

0:25:350:25:38

a Question Time audience.

0:25:380:25:41

CHEERING

0:25:410:25:44

Can't get through these things.

0:25:440:25:45

Michael Gove is going to be facing

0:25:450:25:47

a Question Time audience on his own.

0:25:470:25:49

LAUGHTER

0:25:490:25:51

In Milton Keynes, David Cameron is going to be facing

0:25:510:25:54

a Question Time audience on his own.

0:25:540:25:57

And...in whatever's left - York -

0:25:580:26:01

we're going to have a normal panel.

0:26:010:26:03

Well, I say normal panel, we're going to have a big panel...

0:26:030:26:06

with the audience.

0:26:060:26:07

So there's Cardiff, Folkestone, Nottingham, York and Milton Keynes.

0:26:070:26:11

I'll give the numbers at the end, but they're on the screen now,

0:26:110:26:14

if you want to make a note,

0:26:140:26:15

if you'd like to come to any of those...programmes.

0:26:150:26:18

Right, let's go on...

0:26:180:26:21

though not necessarily very far.

0:26:210:26:23

Claudette Jones, please. Claudette.

0:26:230:26:26

Is it worth another two years of austerity to leave the EU?

0:26:260:26:31

Is it worth another two...?

0:26:310:26:32

This was the claim that there was going to be another two

0:26:320:26:35

years of austerity by the IFS, I think.

0:26:350:26:37

Is your view it is worth it or not worth it?

0:26:370:26:39

I'm currently undecided...

0:26:390:26:42

because there's so many forecasts that have come out

0:26:420:26:45

and it's difficult to know whose to believe,

0:26:450:26:50

especially when forecasts have to be based on a certain

0:26:500:26:52

amount of assumption and...

0:26:520:26:55

Because we don't know what Europe is going to decide,

0:26:550:26:58

how they're going to behave towards us.

0:26:580:27:00

If we do leave, it's quite difficult to...

0:27:000:27:04

To know...

0:27:040:27:05

All right, let's have a try with our panel.

0:27:050:27:07

David Davis, the IFS, as you know,

0:27:070:27:09

an organisation that Michael Gove said

0:27:090:27:12

-he had the greatest respect for...

-Not any more.

0:27:120:27:15

..said there'd be an additional year or two of austerity.

0:27:150:27:18

Well, they're just wrong.

0:27:180:27:20

They didn't do any work of their own,

0:27:200:27:22

what they did was look at all the other surveys that had taken place,

0:27:220:27:26

and I'm afraid the establishment,

0:27:260:27:27

the international establishment in particular,

0:27:270:27:29

is caught in a sort of group thing.

0:27:290:27:31

These are the people, remember, who were all in favour of the euro,

0:27:310:27:34

the IMF and the Treasury and all that.

0:27:340:27:37

They were... They never saw the 2008 financial crisis coming.

0:27:370:27:40

In fact, they helped cause it.

0:27:400:27:42

The IMF, in particular, didn't even handle the Greek crisis very well.

0:27:420:27:47

These are people who are holding themselves up as authorities.

0:27:470:27:50

The Treasury tried to stop us going into the euro.

0:27:500:27:53

Er...eventually.

0:27:530:27:54

They made the conditions that stopped Brown going in.

0:27:540:27:57

-No, no, wait a minute.

-And that stopped Blair going in.

0:27:570:27:59

Yet again, I was there and you weren't.

0:27:590:28:01

-AUDIENCE:

-Ooh!

0:28:010:28:03

Ooh!

0:28:030:28:05

Ooh! I read the papers.

0:28:050:28:07

You read...

0:28:070:28:08

If you challenge me, let me just say my understanding of the story.

0:28:080:28:12

-I was there, actually.

-And you were there.

0:28:120:28:14

There was a feeling that Tony Blair wanted to go into the euro,

0:28:140:28:16

that Gordon Brown didn't. It's true, isn't it?

0:28:160:28:19

More or less true, yes.

0:28:190:28:20

More or less true. And the Treasury came up with the conditions.

0:28:200:28:23

The opt-out in the first place was created by John Major's government

0:28:230:28:26

many years before -

0:28:260:28:27

you wouldn't have had the choice had it not been for them -

0:28:270:28:30

and the reason the opt-out was created was because

0:28:300:28:32

of the mistake made by the Treasury on the ERM. Remember the ERM crisis?

0:28:320:28:36

That's what led to that. That was another mistake these people made.

0:28:360:28:39

But you say the Treasury wanted us to go into the euro.

0:28:390:28:42

-No, you said that.

-No, I didn't say that. You said that.

0:28:420:28:44

-I said these people wanted it.

-Including the Treasury.

0:28:440:28:46

Well, let's leave this one.

0:28:460:28:48

-Call it a draw.

-No, we won't call it a draw.

0:28:480:28:50

-LAUGHTER

-I haven't finished yet.

0:28:500:28:53

The simple truth here is that the assumption being made

0:28:530:28:58

behind all these gloomy, frightening stories

0:28:580:29:02

is that one - we're going to lose lots of trade

0:29:020:29:04

with the European Union.

0:29:040:29:06

And two - we're not going to do any trade, or any more trade,

0:29:060:29:10

outside in the global world.

0:29:100:29:11

Firstly, of course we're going to get lots of scare stories

0:29:110:29:15

right up to the day of Brexit.

0:29:150:29:16

Go out in the street, look at the cars.

0:29:160:29:19

Count the cars. How many Audis? How many BMWs?

0:29:190:29:21

How many Mercedes? How many Volkswagens?

0:29:210:29:23

Germany needs us - we're its biggest market.

0:29:230:29:28

France needs us for wine and cheese.

0:29:280:29:30

The deal will be done in the next two years - that's the first thing.

0:29:300:29:33

Second thing, in terms of global trade,

0:29:330:29:36

the worst operator in terms of creating free trade areas

0:29:360:29:39

in the world is the European Union.

0:29:390:29:41

It hasn't got a deal with the United States yet,

0:29:410:29:43

it hasn't got a deal with China, it hasn't got a deal with India.

0:29:430:29:46

It tried for nearly ten years to get a deal with India.

0:29:460:29:49

It took nine years to get a deal with Canada.

0:29:490:29:51

Everybody else can do this in months or one or two years.

0:29:510:29:53

Small countries can do it. Switzerland can do it.

0:29:530:29:57

South Korea can do it.

0:29:570:29:59

So the argument that we are going to suffer is a scare story

0:29:590:30:05

based on a falsehood.

0:30:050:30:06

-So, to come back to your point...

-APPLAUSE

0:30:060:30:10

A man called Stuart Rose,

0:30:170:30:20

who is the business leader of the Remain campaign,

0:30:200:30:22

was interviewed in front of a select committee...

0:30:220:30:25

One of the House Of Commons selects committees,

0:30:250:30:28

and one of the things he admitted was that

0:30:280:30:30

nothing would change very much at all for the first

0:30:300:30:33

couple of years anyway.

0:30:330:30:35

Secondly, he admitted that, actually,

0:30:350:30:37

wages would go up if we left the European Union.

0:30:370:30:40

Now those two things, to me, do not argue for a great recession

0:30:400:30:45

or a great penalty we have to face if we leave the Union.

0:30:450:30:48

And I come back to the point, we are leaving, we should leave,

0:30:480:30:52

because of recovery, control of our own affairs,

0:30:520:30:55

and we will run them better than they do.

0:30:550:30:57

That does not include a recession.

0:30:570:30:59

Ed Miliband, the... APPLAUSE

0:30:590:31:03

The Chancellor, this week, said that Brexit

0:31:060:31:09

would cost as many as 820,000 jobs

0:31:090:31:12

and the Treasury said that, by 2013,

0:31:120:31:15

Britain would be worse off by over £4,000 a year per household.

0:31:150:31:18

You've heard what David Davis said.

0:31:180:31:20

Do you support those contentions?

0:31:200:31:22

Do you believe them?

0:31:220:31:23

Yeah, I mean, they're in the broad range of conjectures

0:31:230:31:26

-and forecasts made...

-What does a "broad range" mean?

0:31:260:31:28

-You mean it may be true, it may not be true?

-Well, no...

0:31:280:31:31

Every respected independent forecaster has said,

0:31:310:31:34

"We're going to be worse off economically,

0:31:340:31:37

"worse off for trade, worse off for investment."

0:31:370:31:39

I just want to say something about the Institute for Fiscal Studies,

0:31:390:31:42

who came out with the report this week,

0:31:420:31:43

they have criticised Labour governments,

0:31:430:31:45

they have criticised Conservative governments.

0:31:450:31:47

Always, after a budget, they say,

0:31:470:31:49

"The Chancellor got this wrong, got that wrong."

0:31:490:31:51

The idea that they're part of a vast conspiracy on the Remain side

0:31:510:31:54

is frankly laughable, David.

0:31:540:31:56

This is an independent body that is saying,

0:31:560:31:58

"We are going to be worse off."

0:31:580:31:59

I also want to go to Claudette's question.

0:31:590:32:02

Claudette said, "Is two years' austerity, which the

0:32:020:32:05

"IFS said would happen, worth it?"

0:32:050:32:06

Well, my argument is it isn't worth it.

0:32:060:32:09

And let me just say one thing about why I think it's not worth it,

0:32:090:32:12

it's about young people.

0:32:120:32:13

All around the world, young people are kicking against the system.

0:32:130:32:16

So you might expect in this referendum, the forecast,

0:32:160:32:20

the polls to be saying, that young people will be

0:32:200:32:22

voting for out, they are voting for in.

0:32:220:32:24

I think we should think about the wisdom of young people in this.

0:32:240:32:27

Why is that? Because young people like the freedom to travel.

0:32:270:32:30

They recognise the world is getting closer together,

0:32:300:32:32

they recognise that we need to work with others

0:32:320:32:35

to tackle the challenges.

0:32:350:32:36

Which young people are you talking about?

0:32:360:32:38

This is my problem sometimes.

0:32:380:32:41

Sometimes we use the term "young people",

0:32:410:32:43

we're invariably talking about young people who were students,

0:32:430:32:47

who were part of the professional class.

0:32:470:32:49

No, we're not talking about that.

0:32:490:32:51

-I don't think...

-Let me tell you...

-No, Dave...Ed.

0:32:510:32:54

-Sorry!

-She's done it again.

0:32:540:32:56

-I'm sorry - Ed.

-Just go with "you there".

0:32:580:33:03

That would be sort of easier. They'll edit that bit out, anyway.

0:33:030:33:07

We never edit this programme. You're on guard.

0:33:090:33:11

I want to come to you in a moment

0:33:110:33:13

because you keep interfering, interrupting.

0:33:130:33:15

-Yes, I'll come to you.

-I was interrupted, actually.

0:33:150:33:17

No, I was talking to the man with the medals on. Don't be rude.

0:33:170:33:21

I just think there's a whole thing about...

0:33:210:33:23

-My basic point about young people...

-No, I'm still talking, Ed.

0:33:230:33:26

..is about working-class people.

0:33:260:33:29

I don't know, I'm thinking about the working-class people in my family.

0:33:290:33:32

They're not talking about, "I can't wait to travel to go off to Greece

0:33:320:33:36

"or Milan or wherever, Rotterdam, to set up some business."

0:33:360:33:39

What they want, what preoccupies them,

0:33:390:33:42

is ,"Am I going to have a steady job?"

0:33:420:33:43

"Am I going to have a roof over my head?"

0:33:430:33:45

-Yeah.

-"Am I going to have somewhere where I come home for my family?"

0:33:450:33:49

"Am I going to have time to chill out and relax?"

0:33:490:33:52

So can we stop using this general term "young people",

0:33:520:33:56

and using a very stereotypical image of young people?

0:33:560:34:00

I'm making a very specific point. I've learnt not to trust polls.

0:34:000:34:04

But I can say that if you look at the broad range of the polls,

0:34:040:34:08

by three or four to one, young people,

0:34:080:34:11

and that's very large margins, are saying we should stay in.

0:34:110:34:14

Now, that's because they can't imagine a world where

0:34:140:34:17

we can't have visa-free travel across the 28 countries, or where...

0:34:170:34:21

Well, we didn't have it before, actually.

0:34:210:34:23

-We didn't have it before.

-We did.

0:34:230:34:26

-The truth is that I think...

-Let's hear your point.

0:34:260:34:30

Before the EU.

0:34:300:34:32

Before Poland and the East European countries joined the EU,

0:34:320:34:35

you could travel without a visa.

0:34:350:34:36

-Not to Eastern Europe.

-You could travel to the States without a visa.

0:34:360:34:40

You can travel to Japan, Dubai, you don't need a visa.

0:34:400:34:43

Not to Eastern Europe, you couldn't.

0:34:430:34:45

But not to the 28 countries of the European Union.

0:34:450:34:48

You never needed a visa for Italy.

0:34:480:34:50

No, but 28 countries of the European Union...

0:34:500:34:53

I want to go to you, sir, because you are disagreeing,

0:34:530:34:56

I noticed you, with the woman on your right about this.

0:34:560:34:58

And the question was - is it worth

0:34:580:35:00

another two years of austerity to leave the EU?

0:35:000:35:02

And you said, "Yes, it is."

0:35:020:35:03

-You think it is worth it?

-Yes, it is.

-OK.

0:35:030:35:06

So, you are not moved by the economic argument?

0:35:080:35:12

Well, may I say, David, as an ex-serviceman

0:35:120:35:15

in her Majesty's Armed Forces, I am a veteran, as you can see,

0:35:150:35:19

I served my Queen and country and I'm actually living proof.

0:35:190:35:24

I will be voting to leave the EU, along with a lot of servicemen

0:35:240:35:29

and ex-servicemen

0:35:290:35:30

because I am living proof that being part of this EU does not work

0:35:300:35:35

for people that are not in receipt of senior citizen pensions.

0:35:350:35:39

If you cannot... I lived in Spain since approximately 2000.

0:35:390:35:43

I was forced back to my country and I have it on a digi-recording

0:35:430:35:48

from a top Social Security politician.

0:35:480:35:51

"Malcolm, you are English, go back to England,

0:35:510:35:54

"we cannot afford to keep you and help you any more."

0:35:540:35:58

I had to leave my home behind and my wife-to-be.

0:35:580:36:01

I can't bring her back to this country with me

0:36:010:36:03

because she comes from Ukraine

0:36:030:36:05

and there's a lot of paperwork and money needed to do that.

0:36:050:36:08

So you're saying to hell with the EU?

0:36:080:36:11

When I went into the medical centre for my morphine,

0:36:110:36:14

there was a red cross put on the back of this Spanish card

0:36:140:36:19

and said, "It's not valued any more, you'll have to pay privately

0:36:190:36:23

"because you are not of pensionable age."

0:36:230:36:25

And I, among a lot of former military people

0:36:250:36:28

and serving military people, will be the voting to go out.

0:36:280:36:32

Caroline Lucas.

0:36:320:36:33

-I want to come back to Jean's point about...

-Do you recognise that?

0:36:360:36:39

Hang on, we've heard the story.

0:36:390:36:42

A load of rubbish. I am living proof.

0:36:420:36:44

They do not treat us as European people, we are not equals.

0:36:440:36:48

Caroline Lucas, do you come across that kind of story?

0:36:480:36:51

I genuinely haven't come across that kind of story.

0:36:510:36:53

I'm very sorry to hear it,

0:36:530:36:54

but I don't know that leaving the EU would make it any better.

0:36:540:36:57

I want to come to the point Dreda made,

0:36:570:36:59

because it's an important one,

0:36:590:37:00

when she said that the young people she knows are most concerned about

0:37:000:37:03

whether they'll have a secure job,

0:37:030:37:05

whether they have food on the table and so on.

0:37:050:37:07

It's exactly for those reasons I think we need

0:37:070:37:09

to stay inside the EU because that's how you get,

0:37:090:37:11

for example, basic workers' rights guaranteed.

0:37:110:37:14

Not just in the UK, but right across the EU,

0:37:140:37:16

so you don't have big corporations...

0:37:160:37:18

-Let me finish.

-Of course, OK.

0:37:180:37:20

They don't get corporations trying to play off

0:37:200:37:22

one country against the other and bring down standards.

0:37:220:37:24

If you have your friends who are perhaps agency workers,

0:37:240:37:27

then it's because of the EU

0:37:270:37:28

that you've got common protection for agency workers.

0:37:280:37:31

If they were pregnant, they're going to have better results

0:37:310:37:34

as a result of the EU in terms of protections for them.

0:37:340:37:37

So it seems to me that the EU has done a huge amount

0:37:370:37:40

to make sure that working people are going to be better protected.

0:37:400:37:44

Don't forget that Boris Johnson wants to scrap the Social Chapter.

0:37:440:37:48

He wants to scrap all of those protections.

0:37:480:37:51

He has said... Boris Johnson has absolutely said...

0:37:510:37:54

He wants he wants to get rid of it.

0:37:540:37:57

Yes, I will come to you

0:37:570:38:00

but Steve Hilton, the Prime Minister says family holidays will rise

0:38:000:38:05

by £230, you have heard the other figures.

0:38:050:38:08

-Do you think they are all rubbish?

-Yes, basically.

0:38:080:38:11

-I think...

-You're a bit slow on that one.

0:38:110:38:13

You don't have to speak for him!

0:38:130:38:15

I have said already that I think I'm sick...

0:38:150:38:20

I think we are all sick of these phoney figures.

0:38:200:38:23

I want to come back to the question

0:38:230:38:24

because you used a phrase which is at the heart of this,

0:38:240:38:27

this discussion about what's going to happen.

0:38:270:38:29

The phrasing you used was,

0:38:290:38:30

"You hear all this stuff and it's difficult to know."

0:38:300:38:33

Those were your words.

0:38:330:38:34

That's right, and I'd go a bit further. It's impossible to know.

0:38:340:38:37

It is literally impossible to know

0:38:370:38:39

exactly what's going to happen in the future.

0:38:390:38:42

Now, I'm very clearly for Leave.

0:38:420:38:44

But I would be the first to acknowledge

0:38:440:38:46

that there are risks from leaving.

0:38:460:38:48

But please could the other side of the argument also acknowledge

0:38:480:38:52

that there are also risks from staying?

0:38:520:38:54

Because the EU right now, for example,

0:38:540:38:57

is one of the worst-performing economic areas in the world.

0:38:570:39:00

It's basically a sinking ship, economically.

0:39:000:39:03

There is a risk to us from being associated with that.

0:39:030:39:06

The truth is, the future is a risk.

0:39:060:39:09

We don't know what's going to happen in the future.

0:39:090:39:11

And not just the next few years,

0:39:110:39:13

but the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years.

0:39:130:39:16

We have no idea what's going to happen.

0:39:160:39:18

So the real question, given it's difficult and impossible to know,

0:39:180:39:22

is what kind of arrangements for governing ourselves

0:39:220:39:25

put us in the best possible position to cope with these future risks?

0:39:250:39:30

And, for me, the answer to that question is

0:39:300:39:33

a set of arrangements for running the country that allow us

0:39:330:39:36

to move quickly to address things as they happen and to have control

0:39:360:39:41

over the things that we want to do in our country and not have to

0:39:410:39:45

move at the pace of a committee of 20-odd other countries

0:39:450:39:49

and negotiate everything, so that we can respond

0:39:490:39:52

to an uncertain future in the decades ahead.

0:39:520:39:56

And that's why I think we should leave.

0:39:560:39:58

APPLAUSE

0:39:580:40:00

Has he won you over with that one, or not?

0:40:040:40:07

I think we've got a lot more information about the risks

0:40:070:40:11

that we would face if we stayed in

0:40:110:40:13

than those that we would face if we left.

0:40:130:40:16

-It feels like an enormous unknown. And, so...

-OK.

0:40:160:40:20

Let's hear from some more members of the audience. You, sir.

0:40:200:40:23

Hopefully I can weigh in, because as a young person

0:40:230:40:25

who's in my final years of A-levels, hoping to go to university,

0:40:250:40:29

I think when you hear Remain politicians

0:40:290:40:32

saying "the young people", they don't really understand.

0:40:320:40:35

I'm from Felixstowe, which is a port town,

0:40:350:40:38

and we can see the direct effects of all this mass immigration.

0:40:380:40:41

My town doesn't look like what it used to

0:40:410:40:44

and I think one thing that you seem to be forgetting is

0:40:440:40:47

we have the Commonwealth, which is now a bigger trading block

0:40:470:40:50

than the European Union and, as the man said over here,

0:40:500:40:54

most of the countries there are loyal to our Queen.

0:40:540:40:57

They have the same culture as we do, the same principles.

0:40:570:40:59

I'm someone whose step-grandfather is from the Caribbean

0:40:590:41:02

who came over here to work.

0:41:020:41:03

I had the pleasure to go and visit the country of St Vincent.

0:41:030:41:06

I can tell you that they understand how we act as a nation

0:41:060:41:10

and we should feel fine about leaving the European Union

0:41:100:41:13

-because we have...

-And favouring the Commonwealth?

0:41:130:41:15

Yes, because the Commonwealth is there to look after this.

0:41:150:41:18

Briefly, Ed Miliband. Just answer that point.

0:41:180:41:20

I think the interesting thing is that actually, other countries

0:41:200:41:24

want us to be in the European Union because liaising with us

0:41:240:41:28

and trading with us, they then get a 500 million person market.

0:41:280:41:31

I don't think it's a choice between being involved with the Commonwealth

0:41:310:41:34

or being involved with the European Union, we should do both,

0:41:340:41:36

just like we should reach out to China and be in the European Union.

0:41:360:41:39

But lots of these other countries think one of the reasons they

0:41:390:41:42

can trade with us is because we're in the EU, not outside.

0:41:420:41:45

OK, you, sir, at the back there.

0:41:450:41:47

I feel that David Davis, like all Brexiters,

0:41:470:41:51

is wilfully distorting the economic picture.

0:41:510:41:54

Of course we'll be able to trade with countries in the EU,

0:41:540:41:58

but we'll have to pay tariffs.

0:41:580:42:00

All products will be more expensive for us.

0:42:000:42:02

Also, our companies, our businesses which trade in Europe,

0:42:020:42:06

like financial services, will have huge restrictions put on them

0:42:060:42:10

which will cause huge trouble to our underlying economy,

0:42:100:42:13

which will make all our public services less able to cope

0:42:130:42:19

with the problems that they already have.

0:42:190:42:21

And this is all for this, sort of...

0:42:210:42:24

..what...unknown benefit

0:42:250:42:31

of having...of us being in control.

0:42:310:42:34

And they say...he says he wants to be in control of immigration,

0:42:340:42:39

but there's no saying what the government of the time

0:42:390:42:42

will do about immigration.

0:42:420:42:44

-OK.

-We could be in or out of Europe,

0:42:440:42:46

and we could just have just as much immigration.

0:42:460:42:49

So we should stay in and retain the benefits.

0:42:490:42:51

David Davis.

0:42:510:42:52

The first thing to understand

0:42:590:43:00

is there is no free market in services in the European Union.

0:43:000:43:03

They still haven't got one, after all these years.

0:43:030:43:06

-That is absolute rubbish.

-That's the first thing to say.

0:43:060:43:09

Hang on, he said it was rubbish. Briefly, why was it rubbish?

0:43:090:43:13

The government, both Labour and Conservative governments,

0:43:130:43:17

spent a long time ensuring that the EU did not push down the City.

0:43:170:43:25

They did not impose EU-wide extra taxations on financial services

0:43:250:43:30

which would have benefited other financial centres in the EU

0:43:300:43:35

to the detriment of the City.

0:43:350:43:37

There are ways in which being out of the EU will hugely affect

0:43:370:43:42

the financial services industry, to a degree which is far greater

0:43:420:43:47

than all the so-called benefits on the other side.

0:43:470:43:52

There is no free market in services.

0:43:520:43:55

And that negotiation you talk about,

0:43:550:43:58

you can pick lots of them if you like,

0:43:580:44:00

when they had to bail out Greece,

0:44:000:44:02

we were supposedly not supposed to be involved in it.

0:44:020:44:04

We ended up paying out £840 million, £850 million,

0:44:040:44:07

as a result of being inside the system.

0:44:070:44:10

More to the point, and I think more importantly,

0:44:100:44:12

is this whole question of whether or not we continue to have access.

0:44:120:44:16

And I reiterate the point.

0:44:160:44:18

If we are outside the single market, we will have a deal with them,

0:44:180:44:22

just as many other countries do who are, a free-trade deal...

0:44:220:44:26

But it will have tariffs, David, it will have tariffs.

0:44:260:44:28

Unless you're part of the single market, it will have tariffs.

0:44:280:44:32

-No, it won't.

-Yes, it will.

0:44:320:44:33

If you had what's called the World Trade Organisation arrangements,

0:44:330:44:40

-the tariffs will go in both directions.

-Yes.

0:44:400:44:42

They will be far more penal to the German car industry,

0:44:420:44:46

which sells a million cars a year here,

0:44:460:44:49

than they would be to us.

0:44:490:44:51

And the most powerful person in Europe is Angela Merkel.

0:44:510:44:55

And she's got a general election in 2017.

0:44:550:44:58

But even Angela Merkel cannot make a bilateral agreement...

0:44:580:45:01

Wait a minute.

0:45:010:45:02

Eventually, in the European Union,

0:45:020:45:05

what Germany wants, Germany gets, I'm afraid.

0:45:050:45:08

And there's also an election in France in 2017.

0:45:080:45:11

They'll have the same issue with agricultural sales to us.

0:45:110:45:14

So on that side, the argument is a very ill-thought-through one.

0:45:140:45:18

-Can I just interrupt you?

-You are factually wrong on this, David.

0:45:180:45:21

Hang on, the head of the World Trade Organisation said

0:45:210:45:24

the UK would face an extra £9 billion in trading costs

0:45:240:45:28

if it left the EU.

0:45:280:45:29

-Is he right or wrong?

-No, he's wrong.

0:45:290:45:31

He's making a guess about what will be the outcome of the negotiations.

0:45:310:45:35

-David, you cannot say...

-Can I just finish the argument?

0:45:350:45:39

This negotiation will take two years at least to go through.

0:45:390:45:42

There's going to be... Of course, in the first few months,

0:45:420:45:45

there's going to be a degree of hysteria,

0:45:450:45:47

there will be, there's no doubt about that.

0:45:470:45:49

But then all of these countries have a vested interest, whether it's...

0:45:490:45:53

The World Trade Organisation has a vested interest?

0:45:530:45:55

No, the countries we are negotiating with, the group of countries...

0:45:550:45:58

Poland wants to sell machinery to us,

0:45:580:46:00

uh, the Italians want to sell fashion goods to us,

0:46:000:46:03

the Germans, cars and engineering goods,

0:46:030:46:06

uh, the Spaniards and French want to sell food and drink to us...

0:46:060:46:11

And they all have surpluses in our direction.

0:46:110:46:14

So they want to sell to us more than we want to sell to them.

0:46:140:46:17

-Can I just...? On that point...

-I'm afraid...

0:46:170:46:19

-I'm afraid the negotiation WILL happen!

-OK.

-And...

0:46:190:46:22

-I just want to correct one thing that you keep saying.

-But, no...

0:46:220:46:25

-Let Caroline have her corrections.

-No, I want...

0:46:250:46:27

-Let Caroline make the correction.

-All right.

-Only fair.

0:46:270:46:29

I want to correct the point where you keep saying

0:46:290:46:31

that the EU needs us more than we need it.

0:46:310:46:34

Our exports to the EU are 13% of our GDP.

0:46:340:46:38

-EU exports to Britain are 3% of their GDP.

-Yeah, we keep...

0:46:380:46:41

-We actually need them more than they need us.

-We...

0:46:410:46:43

-You are being incredibly complacent.

-CHEERING

0:46:430:46:46

-We...

-Incredibly complacent.

0:46:460:46:49

We... We keep... We... This...

0:46:490:46:53

-This...

-It's true, it's true!

0:46:530:46:55

No, no, no... Let...let Caroline speak!

0:46:550:46:57

The simple truth is that this negotiation

0:46:570:47:01

is going to affect every country.

0:47:010:47:03

They won't be doing a 3% deal, they'll be thinking about,

0:47:030:47:05

"What about my industry? What about this industry?"

0:47:050:47:08

We don't talk about the percentage deals we deal with,

0:47:080:47:10

we look at what it means for our individual industries.

0:47:100:47:13

And while we're at it,

0:47:130:47:15

the suggestion by Ed that, "Oh, well, we can deal with Europe

0:47:150:47:18

"AND we can have a deal with China" - we can't.

0:47:180:47:20

Whilst we're inside the European Union,

0:47:200:47:23

We cannot negotiate with China. We cannot negotiate with India.

0:47:230:47:27

-We cannot negotiate...

-You've made the point.

0:47:270:47:29

-Of course you can.

-We'd do a better job than they would.

0:47:290:47:31

David, you've spoken for some time. Let's just...

0:47:310:47:33

We must balance this up. Ed Miliband.

0:47:330:47:35

I mean, look, I think Caroline rather exposed David's argument.

0:47:350:47:38

But I think the other thing, David, that comes across is

0:47:380:47:41

it is a massive leap into the unknown.

0:47:410:47:43

I've read some of the things you've said about this.

0:47:430:47:45

You said we should be like Canada,

0:47:450:47:47

but then people pointed out that actually, the Canadian trade deal

0:47:470:47:50

has taken eight years, it isn't complete, it's got tariffs,

0:47:500:47:52

so you say, "Well, maybe we shouldn't be like Canada."

0:47:520:47:55

Today you're saying, "We'd be like Norway or Switzerland,"

0:47:550:47:57

in a speech you made, but not really like Norway or Switzerland.

0:47:570:48:00

It's some kind of unique status that only Britain is going to have

0:48:000:48:04

and you can't actually tell us the country we're going to be like.

0:48:040:48:06

-Which country would it be like?

-Well, that's...

0:48:060:48:08

-Which country would it be like?

-That's because...

0:48:080:48:11

APPLAUSE

0:48:110:48:12

Just tell us the country! Canada? Albania? Norway, Switzerland?

0:48:120:48:18

The country we're going to be like is...

0:48:180:48:19

-The country we're going to be like is Great Britain.

-Fine.

0:48:190:48:22

LOUD CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

0:48:220:48:24

We have an enormous spending power. You know...

0:48:240:48:28

This is... This is... This is... This is...

0:48:280:48:32

-This is...

-It's good rhetoric, but it's not an answer.

0:48:320:48:35

-This is the standard...

-I'm afraid it's not an answer, David.

0:48:350:48:37

This is the standard response. Every time...

0:48:370:48:39

-Every time...

-AUDIENCE MEMBER HECKLES

0:48:390:48:41

-Every time...

-Just say one country.

0:48:410:48:43

Just one country whose trading arrangements we'd be like.

0:48:430:48:46

It's a fair question.

0:48:460:48:47

Every time...every time we offer an example of something which works,

0:48:470:48:50

they say, "Oh, you're going to be like them."

0:48:500:48:52

So, for example...

0:48:520:48:54

-CAROLINE:

-You haven't offered an example.

0:48:540:48:55

I have lots of examples. He's talked about them.

0:48:550:48:58

Switzerland, Canada, Chile...

0:48:580:49:01

You don't want Switzerland, though, really, do you?

0:49:010:49:03

What we're saying is other countries prove that things can be done...

0:49:030:49:06

But you can't name a single country other than Great Britain

0:49:060:49:09

whose trading arrangements with the EU we'll be like.

0:49:090:49:11

-I think that's really important for the audience.

-All right.

0:49:110:49:14

There's no country in the whole world

0:49:140:49:16

that has trading arrangements with the EU which he wants to emulate.

0:49:160:49:19

Now, if that isn't a leap into the unknown and a massive risk,

0:49:190:49:22

I don't know what is.

0:49:220:49:23

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE Steve Hilton.

0:49:230:49:25

I don't think that one's going anywhere, Steve Hilton.

0:49:250:49:28

I want to say something on trade in a second,

0:49:280:49:30

but just on this point of what's the alternative -

0:49:300:49:32

the best thing that I've read about this

0:49:320:49:34

and I can't remember who said it,

0:49:340:49:36

was that it is really the most stupid question out, which is -

0:49:360:49:39

-what's the alternative to being in...

-Attack the question.

0:49:390:49:42

No, not the question here,

0:49:420:49:43

the question that YOU posed, which is -

0:49:430:49:45

what's the alternative to being in the EU?

0:49:450:49:47

-AUDIENCE MEMBER SHOUTS OUT

-Hang on...

0:49:470:49:48

The alternative to being in the EU is NOT being in the EU.

0:49:480:49:51

-ED:

-Oh, for goodness' sake!

-And most of the countries...

0:49:510:49:54

-And what does it look like?

-It looks like...

0:49:540:49:56

It looks like no environmental policy,

0:49:560:49:57

it looks like getting rid of the Social Chapter,

0:49:570:49:59

it looks like having no workers' rights protected at EU level.

0:49:590:50:03

Well, most of the countries in the world are not in the EU

0:50:030:50:06

and they are doing better than the EU.

0:50:060:50:08

Now, on the trade question, um... I just wanted to offer...

0:50:080:50:10

-ED:

-But can you answer the question that he didn't answer?

0:50:100:50:13

-Which is...

-He's got it right!

0:50:130:50:15

The country that we'd be like is our own country, it's...

0:50:150:50:18

-DAVID DAVIS:

-Absolutely...

-CHEERING

0:50:180:50:20

It's such a silly... Honestly...

0:50:200:50:21

Please...I really, really wish that these politicians

0:50:210:50:26

would just stop treating us like idiots.

0:50:260:50:28

The point you're making is completely ridiculous.

0:50:280:50:30

-No, it isn't.

-Of course it is.

0:50:300:50:32

-It's a very simple point.

-We'd be like our own country!

0:50:320:50:34

No, but as we look around the world, Steve, it's a serious point...

0:50:340:50:37

As we look round the world,

0:50:370:50:38

with the different trading arrangements,

0:50:380:50:40

because trade is fundamental to this,

0:50:400:50:42

what country do we want to emulate when it comes to our relationship

0:50:420:50:45

-outside the EU with the EU?

-It's the...

0:50:450:50:47

And there's no point in saying Britain

0:50:470:50:49

because we're in the EU at the moment, in the single market...

0:50:490:50:51

-MAN:

-Not for long, sonny!

0:50:510:50:53

OK. Sorry, can I just, on the trade...?

0:50:530:50:55

All right. Just briefly, then I'll come to you.

0:50:550:50:57

There's a particular thing. I just wanted to offer

0:50:570:50:59

a perspective on this question of trading arrangements.

0:50:590:51:02

-All right.

-Because there's a particular vanity

0:51:020:51:04

that I have noticed about politicians,

0:51:040:51:07

which is that they believe that the whole world

0:51:070:51:10

revolves around what they decide and what they do...

0:51:100:51:12

-SOME APPLAUSE

-..and they think that

0:51:120:51:14

-the only good things that happen...

-Is David Cameron like that then?

0:51:140:51:17

-Hang on a second...

-Is David Cameron like that?

0:51:170:51:19

He's the exception, he's the exception(!)

0:51:190:51:21

The only good things in the world come from the decisions they make

0:51:210:51:24

and the rules they do and the things that they set up.

0:51:240:51:27

The truth is that our success as an economy, more than anything else,

0:51:270:51:31

depends on something that is known as comparative advantage.

0:51:310:51:34

In simple terms, are we designing and making things

0:51:340:51:37

that the rest of the world wants to buy?

0:51:370:51:39

That's within our control and that's the fundamental point here,

0:51:390:51:43

that WE need to make our economy more productive

0:51:430:51:46

by the policies that we implement here in this country

0:51:460:51:50

-and then that is what will lead to our success.

-OK.

0:51:500:51:52

APPLAUSE Points of view...

0:51:520:51:54

I...I think that most people that are on the fence

0:51:550:51:59

need to make a calculated decision

0:51:590:52:02

and to do that, you need to calculate the risks.

0:52:020:52:04

At least the Remain campaign is trying to quantify

0:52:040:52:08

what it would be if we leave the EU.

0:52:080:52:11

But what I hear from the Exit campaign

0:52:110:52:13

is all this airy-fairy, "Follow me into La-La land"

0:52:130:52:16

type of conversations, and I...

0:52:160:52:18

I haven't heard anything... anything from you,

0:52:180:52:21

apart from Great Britain will be fine in the rest of the world.

0:52:210:52:24

You know, "We're going to be the Great Britain of old".

0:52:240:52:27

I haven't heard anything, any real argument against that...

0:52:270:52:29

Oh, not against that, but for that...

0:52:290:52:31

And Mr Davis, I have to disagree with you -

0:52:310:52:34

government doesn't know best,

0:52:340:52:35

because the Tory government dismantled the NHS perfectly well.

0:52:350:52:38

LAUGHTER AND APPLAUSE

0:52:380:52:42

The woman in the back in red. We've only got a few moments left.

0:52:420:52:45

The woman in red there at the very back. Yes.

0:52:450:52:47

Something that none of the politicians here have mentioned

0:52:470:52:50

is the fact that the Germans have a black bank balance,

0:52:500:52:56

which roughly equals the sum of the total

0:52:560:52:59

of the red bank balances in the other 27 countries.

0:52:590:53:03

That, for me, speaks for itself.

0:53:030:53:05

-SOME APPLAUSE

-Europe's good for Germany.

-OK.

0:53:050:53:08

Um, and you, sir, up there. On the far right.

0:53:080:53:12

I just think Ed Miliband's comments are a classic example

0:53:120:53:15

of the Remain camp's position of doing our country down.

0:53:150:53:20

We are the fifth-largest economy in the world

0:53:200:53:24

and the sooner we get out, the better,

0:53:240:53:26

get our seat back on the World Trade Organisation

0:53:260:53:29

and get our identity back.

0:53:290:53:31

Vote Leave!

0:53:310:53:32

OK. And you. SOME CHEERING

0:53:320:53:35

The woman in grey there, yes.

0:53:370:53:39

You talked about the Remain campaign treating people like idiots,

0:53:390:53:45

when the Leave campaign has used

0:53:450:53:47

the most pathetic arguments for staying in.

0:53:470:53:49

Boris Johnson's talking about how big bunches of bananas can be.

0:53:490:53:53

-It's pathetic.

-STEVE:

-I agree, by the way.

0:53:530:53:56

CHEERING AND APPLAUSE

0:53:560:53:58

I...I agree. I've talked about both campaigns doing that,

0:53:580:54:01

just to be clear.

0:54:010:54:03

We have a question. We don't have time to take it,

0:54:030:54:05

but perhaps the panel can comment on it -

0:54:050:54:08

whether scare stories are having a detrimental effect

0:54:080:54:11

on people's perception of politics,

0:54:110:54:13

And also, whether the Conservative Party can ever reunite

0:54:130:54:16

after the insults that they're hurling at each other.

0:54:160:54:20

What do you think?

0:54:200:54:22

Which would you like to ask?

0:54:220:54:23

Either question, I don't care which you answer!

0:54:230:54:26

Well, of course it's going to be difficult...

0:54:260:54:28

The perception of politics is being diminished by the exaggeration

0:54:280:54:31

and the Tory Party won't hold together.

0:54:310:54:33

I think, actually, that is a fair point,

0:54:330:54:35

that this battle, to some extent,

0:54:350:54:37

is diminishing confidence in politicians.

0:54:370:54:40

I think there's no doubt that's true.

0:54:400:54:43

And partly... It's not just British politicians,

0:54:430:54:46

I mean, I remember when Obama came over, he made his comments,

0:54:460:54:50

there was a very short sort of 5% blip, as people said,

0:54:500:54:53

"Oh, yeah. Oh, that-that frightens us."

0:54:530:54:56

But then about a week later, they said,

0:54:560:54:58

"Well, what's it got to do with him and what's he know anyway?"

0:54:580:55:01

So there was a sort of clear resentment, really,

0:55:010:55:04

at being told what to think and being told what to do

0:55:040:55:07

and having these huge and unfounded scare stories run.

0:55:070:55:12

-So, yes, I do think...

-OK.

0:55:120:55:13

Steve Hilton, do you think the Conservatives

0:55:130:55:15

will be able to come back from an issue that's so divided them?

0:55:150:55:18

Uh, I do, um, because there are really important, big things

0:55:180:55:21

that the Government wants to get done

0:55:210:55:23

and that will go on afterwards.

0:55:230:55:25

But I also wanted to comment on the question about politics

0:55:250:55:27

because I think it is really worrying what's happening.

0:55:270:55:30

Um...I've talked earlier about the scare stories

0:55:300:55:34

and the phoney figures and all the rest of it,

0:55:340:55:35

and the fact that both campaigns, I think,

0:55:350:55:37

are making this far too simple.

0:55:370:55:39

But I think that what that really means

0:55:390:55:41

is that people just are turned off by the whole thing,

0:55:410:55:44

they don't want to go into politics at all,

0:55:440:55:46

they don't want to participate

0:55:460:55:48

and there's a point underlying it that I think is really important

0:55:480:55:52

for us all to understand, which is - why do they do it?

0:55:520:55:55

These are smart people.

0:55:550:55:56

They can see that what they're doing is ridiculous and silly.

0:55:560:55:59

Are they all smart, really?

0:55:590:56:00

They are smart and well-intentioned,

0:56:000:56:02

they're good people on all sides, they want to do their best.

0:56:020:56:05

And they know that this stuff is ridiculous,

0:56:050:56:07

even as they're saying it. And the question is...

0:56:070:56:09

Isn't that a bit rich coming from you...?

0:56:090:56:11

-I've owned up to my role in that.

-You did that, didn't you?

0:56:110:56:13

-Completely.

-Devil eyes, what was that thing, with Blair...?

0:56:130:56:16

Absolutely. Labour's tax bombshell, you'd pay £1,000...

0:56:160:56:18

I've been involved in all this stuff, OK, for years.

0:56:180:56:21

And I can now, with a bit of detachment,

0:56:210:56:23

see and own up to the fact that that has been a trend

0:56:230:56:26

that I think has been damaging,

0:56:260:56:28

and it's got worse and worse in this campaign...

0:56:280:56:31

-Hang on one second, I think...

-We've got to stop.

-I just think...

0:56:310:56:34

Very quick. AUDIENCE MEMBER SHOUTS OUT

0:56:340:56:35

-Wait a second...

-Very quick.

-The thing is that, actually,

0:56:350:56:39

what they're counting on is that you are not sufficiently interested

0:56:390:56:43

in the serious arguments and that you will fall for it

0:56:430:56:46

cos they believe that you want simple, superficial things...

0:56:460:56:49

Yeah, well, the evidence...

0:56:490:56:50

You've got to show them that that is not true.

0:56:500:56:52

The evidence of the Question Time audience is the exact opposite,

0:56:520:56:55

which is people are absolutely fascinated by the arguments.

0:56:550:56:58

Exactly. But that's why they need to stop...

0:56:580:56:59

A very quick word cos we really are over time now.

0:56:590:57:02

Yeah, cos I'm the non-politician here,

0:57:020:57:03

I'm not even a Westminster insider

0:57:030:57:05

and one of the reasons that I decided to leave was,

0:57:050:57:10

all the politicians, they were just arguing amongst themselves,

0:57:100:57:13

and it was men, it wasn't women.

0:57:130:57:15

Men predominantly from down south.

0:57:150:57:17

Wasn't a geographical spread of people.

0:57:170:57:19

I turned my TV off and I went and did my own research,

0:57:190:57:22

-and that's how I got to the position that I got to.

-OK. And, Ed...

0:57:220:57:25

-CAROLINE:

-Can I...?

-Yeah, very brief...

0:57:250:57:27

All right. Very briefly, 30 seconds.

0:57:270:57:30

My 30-second pitch is that I do think that this campaign

0:57:300:57:32

desperately needs more optimism and it needs more vision

0:57:320:57:35

and I want to say that I think it is actually quite extraordinary

0:57:350:57:37

that 28 countries, that until very recently,

0:57:370:57:40

actually used to try to solve their problems by fighting,

0:57:400:57:42

by bullets and bombs, are now actually trying

0:57:420:57:44

to find their solutions through discussion and debate...

0:57:440:57:47

Sometimes it might be a bit cumbersome,

0:57:470:57:49

-but actually, it's a better way of doing things.

-OK.

0:57:490:57:52

Do you want to just say, "So be it"? You agree?

0:57:520:57:55

I agree with Caroline. Look, there has been too much negativity

0:57:550:57:58

on both sides of this argument.

0:57:580:57:59

World War III and Hitler on each side of the argument.

0:57:590:58:02

And actually, there is a positive vision of an EU

0:58:020:58:06

that works for people and is changed on climate change, on tax avoidance,

0:58:060:58:10

on prosperity, on all of those things.

0:58:100:58:12

I don't like the EU the way it is -

0:58:120:58:13

-we've got to change it and make it better.

-OK, thank you.

0:58:130:58:16

CHEERING Right.

0:58:160:58:18

Thank you very much.

0:58:180:58:20

We've... I'm sorry, and I'm sorry, and I'm sorry... Um...

0:58:200:58:25

-DAVID DAVIS:

-We've been trying for 20 years!

0:58:250:58:27

Our...our hour's up, unfortunately.

0:58:270:58:30

Now, we're going to be in Cardiff next week.

0:58:300:58:31

We have Frank Field for Labour,

0:58:310:58:34

we have Neil Hamilton, the former Tory MP,

0:58:340:58:37

now Ukip's leader in the Welsh Assembly.

0:58:370:58:39

And then Folkestone the week after that.

0:58:390:58:41

So, if you want to come either to Cardiff or Folkestone,

0:58:410:58:44

or remember the week after that, those three sites -

0:58:440:58:46

Nottingham, York and Milton Keynes -

0:58:460:58:48

go to our website, or you can call the number...

0:58:480:58:51

5 Live listeners, as you know,

0:58:530:58:55

this debate carries on to the early hours.

0:58:550:58:58

But here, our time's up.

0:58:580:58:59

I'm sad about it.

0:58:590:59:01

Our panel, I thank them very much indeed for coming

0:59:010:59:04

and to all of you who came to Ipswich or have come from Ipswich

0:59:040:59:09

to be here tonight, many thanks.

0:59:090:59:11

Until next Thursday, from Question Time, goodnight.

0:59:110:59:13

APPLAUSE

0:59:130:59:16

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