19/09/2016 Scotland 2016

"The dream will never die," said Alex Salmond.

But on this second anniversary of the referendum,

what are the prospects for Scottish independence?

Many are still vocally yes, while others would say no again.

We reflect on 2014's referendum with leading

campaigners from both sides - and find out what they would do

And the Scottish government says it will place more power in the hands

of teachers, but does that put it on a collision course with councils?

It was the referendum than expected would be once in a generation. At

the weekend, former First Minister Alex Salmond suggested might be more

like twice in four years, producing another vote in autumn 2018. Brexit

has changed everything, but has it affected the polls?

Nicola Sturgeon faces an agonising decision on whether or not

But what do campaigners on both sides of the debate think?

Our political correspondent, Andrew Kerr, has been

Two years on, how much is there to cheer for supporters of

independence? Is pub in Glasgow was renamed the Yes bar in 2014 by the

owners. Two years ago was the greatest of days, and then the worst

of days. I actually spoke to my husband this morning. I said you

know, this time last year, I even felt quite despondent. I thought

what a great opportunity we had missed. But all of a sudden, it

feels like we're on the way up again. Obviously there's lessons to

be learned, a lot of listening to do. But it is on its way. Those

lessons to be learned include discussing the currency option. So,

if it's on its way, when Mike that broke the? Sooner than we think. --

when might that vote the? As far as I can see, they made choices under a

set of descriptions and circumstances which turned out not

to be true. Brexit was the big one. They were told to vote no and be

safe in Britain. The opposite us turned out to be true. People turned

out to various events at the weekend, fired up for the cause. A

cause that has perhaps been redefined by the First Minister,

saying the case for self-government transcends the issues of the day.

For me it was was about self-determination is. Making those

determinations are right for people in Scotland. Any decision. Any

decision at all. Sometimes during the referendum when policy was

talked about a lot, to me it seemed from a personal level kind of

strange. To me, it wasn't about policy decisions as who gets to make

this policy decisions. Maybe half the country is invigorated by the

prospect of another referendum. Maybe the other half of the country

want that prospect to simply go away. The divisions are all too

relevant in our recent report. It praised the Scottish referendum for

being vibrant and well-informed. Nationalist welcome that, but

Unionists said it was divisive and negative. This man is now -- this

woman is now a Conservative MSP. She got involved in politics for the

first time in 2014., now she sees a problem that you would prefer to go

away. I think the SNP need to just take the cards off the table and get

on with doing the job. I don't want there to be another referendum, of

course don't want that to be one. I the SNP with the results in the

polls last week, there is no appetite for it. They really need to

have a hard look at themselves and see what's the best thing for

Scotland right now. But we're here because of Brexit. What's the

Unionist line? We won't lie to you because we still have the option of

being in the European Union. Had Scotland ready to leave in 2014,

there'd be out of the referendum anyway -- out of the union anyway.

Better together. After the battle was won, but what about the war?

With the Conservatives now the biggest opposition army, who should

clean lead the fight for the union? If the SNP did actually put it

forward, there's only one person in my eyes that could actually Robert,

that would be Ruth Davidson. -- could actually run it. I think the

result of the Scottish Parliamentary elections show that people are

satisfied with her and the result we saw last week in the polls show that

she has a lot of popularity and believes passionately in the union.

For people like Annie and Cezanne and the rest of us, constitutional

arguments certainly lie ahead. Since 2014's referendum,

we have, of course, had Has that made any difference

to public opinion on independence? I have been asking the polling

expert, Professor John Curtice. Since the independence referendum in

September 2014, the opinion polls have typically been saying that

around 53% of people want to stay inside the UK, 47% in favour of

independence. Those were the numbers running all the way through to the

Scottish Parliamentary election in May. In the last four weeks or so,

we have now had five companies all measure once again people's

attitudes towards independence. The truth is that what they are telling

us is that around 52 or 53% of people are inferior staying in the

UK. The truth is, it looks as though there is a small majority in favour

of staying. -- are in favour Isles. The balance of opinion has not

changed in the wake of Brexit. There is some evidence of some people

switching from yes to no and no do you. Over the balance hasn't changed

on aggregate, it looks as if some individual voters have changed their

minds. If we look at the recent polls, the position back last April

and May. Typically, something close to 90% of both yes and no voters

were saying they would still vote the same way. Post Brexit, all the

opinion polls are now finding numbers closer to 80% of people

saying that they would vote the same way I September 20 14. Which

therefore suggests and there is other evidence to confirm this that

some people have switched from no to yes in the wake of the decision of

the UK as a whole to leave the European Union. However, there are

other people who have moved in the opposite direction. I think it's

often forgotten that a quite substantial group, at least a third

or more, of those people who voted yes in September 20 14th actually

voted for breakfast. Therefore we should not be surprised. -- who

voted yes actually voted for Brexit. This will be a problem for Nicola

Sturgeon, that substantial minority of yes supporters who voted for

Brexit? I think the truth is that the SNP cannot presume that the

coalition of yes voters are as homogenous in their views about the

European Union as the Parliamentary ranks of the SNP both in Holyrood

and at Westminster. The truth is, like every political party and

movement, the issue of Europe cuts across people's attitudes on

independence. For Scotland or otherwise. You can see why some

people may have switched to the opposite direction, leaving us much

where we were. I think the lesson is that the truth is the SNP cannot

presume that people's reactions to Brexit alone is going to be enough

to create a majority in favour of independence in Scotland. There will

have to go back onto the issue which above all was central in

independence referendum, was also crucial in European referendum. That

is to persuade people that independence would be better for

Scotland economically. Until and if, unless the SNP can win that

argument, there are unlikely to win a second European referendum.

Well, to reflect on those campaigns past - and possibly those

of the future ? I am joined by Dennis Canavan, who was chair

of Yes Scotland's advisory board, and by Craig Harrow,

who was one of the founding directors of Better Together.

Let us cast our minds back two years. In both of your opinions,

what went right for your campaigns and what went wrong? Dennis, first.

Yellow what went right, the very fact that we started off at the

start of the campaign with less than 30% of the people supporting

independent. By the end of the campaign, that had increased to 45%.

Not enough, but nevertheless it's a very good base. An excellent base

for us to build on success the next time. What went wrong? Well, I think

that one of the things that went wrong for us was that we spent too

much time speaking to the converted. I mean, it was great going out to

big rallies and things. I enjoyed it. But I found that at a lot of

these big meetings and rallies, it was mostly, sometimes almost

entirely, yes micro-people who are coming along. And I do think that

next time round, we have learnt a lesson and we've got to work very

very hard to try and convert enough of the 2 million people who voted no

in the last referendum. We've got to get out there, knocking on doors,

taking the arguments to the people, trying to win the debate, winning

the hearts and minds of sufficient people. If we can do that, I am

confident that we share win in the next referendum. Crave, strengths

and weaknesses for the Better Together side? I think, and we saw

this in the Remain campaign recently, that the project fear

playbook really went too far I think. The negativity on the Better

Together campaign was overplayed. I think in the future, we must be

talking more about the benefits of the United Kingdom. Socially,

culturally, economically. And just not playing the economic car the

whole time, but talking more about the broader benefits that we have

from the United Kingdom. -- the economic side the whole time. Do

think people on the the yes I'd welcome project fear because they

overplayed their hand is? I don't think we welcomed it, I think it was

wrong for Better Together to go along with project fear. I mean, too

much negativity sometimes can rebound. Against a party or against

a particular campaign. But I'm quite convinced, for example, if you look

at my demographic. People over the age of 60 or over the age of 70.

Most of them, all the evidence points to the fact that most of them

voted no in the referendum. Why? Many of them were afraid. Many of

them were told thundering lies by the Better Together campaign. They

were told that there was no guarantee that their pension would

be maintained if they voted Years. Despite the fact that there was a

letter from the UK Government department, the DWP, stating quite

clearly in black and white that arrangements for the pension would

continue. Do you think currency was a particular weakness for Alex

Salmond? I know you have always backed separate currency. I think

the government have admitted that the currency problem was not handled

well. -- the Scottish Government. You can't force the rest of UK to

accept a sterling currency union. That obvious. The Scottish

Government at the time decided that there would be no plan B. I listened

carefully to what Nicola surgeon has said and done and also what Alex

Salmond has said and done over the past few weeks. -- Nicola Sturgeon.

I think they would admit it could have been handled better. In fact,

Alex Salmond himself came out and said in the second big debate, when

he said that we should also have mentioned other options for

currency. They were there in the White Paper. I have a favoured

option, but there are other options which could have worked as well.

Even if my favoured option was not the one that was selected by the

Scottish Government. If there is another referendum next couple of

years, who is going to lead it for Better Together? Labour, given the

state they're in just now, wouldn't it have to be Ruth Davidson?

I think that is quite a lot we could learn from other campaigns. Also,

the idea that it was not just politicians involved. That is a lot

to be said for that. But there has to be a politician leading the

campaign, I am not sure. Things may have changed with regard to people

listening to politicians. We see this situation with the Labour Party

and with Ukip that politicians do not necessarily have the EU of

people. But we need to put forward the poor are positives, the merits,

and doesn't have to be a politician? Would it be a good idea for Nicola

Sturgeon to pin her hopes on Brexit? It is early days. Brexit Has not yet

happened. It means we will inevitably be a new fundamentally

constitutional arrangement for the United Kingdom as a whole, but also

from the people of Scotland. I think it was exaggerated by the fact that

the majority of the people of Scotland wanted to remain members of

the European Union. Yet, we were outnumbered and outvoted by other

people in other parts of the United Kingdom. But people have not had the

opportunity to look through the hall implications of Brexit, in terms of

not only the constitutional side, but the likes of economy. Once the

penny drops, I think people will be alarmed by what will happen as a

result of the negotiations. I think people in Scotland would then be in

inclined to vote yes in a future referendum campaign. Would you

please be weakened by the fact that were staying, you said, if you vote

against independence, you will remain in Europe? If you remember,

during the referendum, the yes campaign said that if we stay part

of the United Kingdom, the National Health Service would be privatised.

That has not happened. I do not think it is a certainty in terms of

winning a second vote. She make think so, but she is not rushing

towards it. What about the argument that we should wait a few years.

Alex Salmond is talking about the end of 2018. Is that too soon? I

guess, for what it is worth, is that it will take place within the next

two years. There is an army of people who they are, not only just

supporters of the Scottish National party, but others, who agree that

the Scottish National party and the government should be in the week,

because they have a mandate from the people, but it has to be a

comprehensive and inclusive campaign, embracing people of

different political parties and people like myself, who is no longer

affiliated to any political party. What is the chance second time

round, would it be more difficult? I think there is a lot of impatience,

with Brexit regard to. I think many of the arguments have changed, but

the principal arguments remains, that we are stronger within the

United Kingdom, both socially and culturally. We have to win this

argument every team, Frears of course, Dennis only needs to win the

argument once. The Scottish government has

made its defining mission for this parliamentary term the closing

of the attainment gap It wants to turn around a schools

system which is failing pupils But critics fear this is just

a twin-pronged attack on councils, which are fiercely protective

of their pivotal role in the school system,

as our education correspondent While state schools have changed

hugely over the past century, one thing has remained constant. With a

few exceptional cases, the run councils. The relationship between

the council and the government with regard to schools are a feature of

the system, but the future could be different. In future, it could be a

National Service which councils are entrusted to provide. They want to

give headteachers more powers. Councils will still have an

important role to play, but what would the role be in practice. I

have done many things. The government says it wants to close

the gap between children from relatively well-off backgrounds to

those from Pooler backgrounds. At the school in Renfrewshire, a

campaign to improve literacy has been pleased. We presumed that

children came from a rich environment of literacy. That is not

always the case, so we went back to basics and did a lot of reading for

enjoyment. Some of the poor may be given to headteachers to decide just

what is right for their own particular school. Head teacher here

has the power to do different things that they to raise the level of

education for the children here. The Scottish Government believes

reforming the system could make it easier first seems like this to

happen across the country. Councils fear a twin pronged attack. The few

we will be attacked by the individual schools and the regional

boards. It does feel like it is an attack on local government. It is

the view that national politicians seem to think they know best, when

they do not always do so. We started off with the discussion, a very weak

consultation, based on the principle that I believe it is in the best

interests of the education journey of the young people of Scotland that

decisions on the education are taken as closely as possible to the

schools. I wanted to open up the debate about the port of the great

issues, the right questions and the rate decisions taken with regard to

young people in schools. Some things are not on the agenda. Secondary

schools will remain comprehensive. And there are no plans for schools

to simply opt out of council control. If somebody wants to opt

out of control, we know the appeal to want to do that, so be it. I do

not think there is such a huge demand for grammar schools across

Scotland. If someone wanted to start one or a free school, we would

address that as it came up. The consultation will go on for several

months, but will the end result change what or children can achieve

or merely weaken the influence of councils?

Joining me to discuss that and the rest of today's stories

are Herald journalist Marianne Taylor and Campbell Gunn,

who was a Special Adviser to the First Minister for three

years and, before that, was Political Editor

Why is John Swinney so keen to take some powers away from councils and

give that decision-making to schools. It is to do with closing

this attainment gap, which was in the Scottish National party

manifesto. There are certain things I would like to have seen going

further. Local authorities have not handled education particularly well.

If the Scottish Government is going to set up these regional boards. At

least with local councils, we can elect them. We will be

accountability be? It is all about closing the attainment gap. Is this

something pavements will welcome? I think they probably will. If you

look at what happened in London, with regard to Pooler area is the,

the Aleut headteachers, who knew the areas, the people in the children,

and give them control. We need new ideas in education up here and this

one may well work. Do you think schools can close the attainment

gap? Is your background very important? It is very complex. If

the were easy answers, they would've worked by no. You need other ideas.

The other idea may not necessarily be grammar schools. The meat want to

locate using the best graduate teachers in these schools. We have

here at these comments from Alex Salmond about it being the end of

2018 when we get a second referendum. Do you think she will go

for it before the end of 2018? I think anyone who says they know what

is going to happen does not know what is going to happen! We do not

know whether the Prime Minister will trigger Article 50 full. We thought

that she might trigger it in February of next year. No, we are

not so sure. Will there be a general election before it has trigger? Does

Nicola Sturgeon fired the starting gun before she knows the result of

the Brexit negotiations. The Prime Minister is in a very difficult

situation. Effectively, the fort south of the border was to control

immigration. Effectively, controlling immigration me real

affect entry to the single market. Will people accept that? Would your

advice to the Scottish Government be that they have two we can see? Yes,

it has to be. There is extreme uncertainty about this post Brexit

world. No one understands what is going to happen and that will play

into the fears. I would say that this moment we are in allows for new

alliances to be made which in the longer term, there may be something

in that. With regard to opinion polls, the does not appear to be

sustained difference with regard to independence. I think it all depends

on the European economic situation. If the United Kingdom is allowed to

operate in the single market galea, we will not experience the hardships

that many people fear. But if we do not, we will see real lasting

consequences and that may or may not change the minds of people. It is

very hard at the moment to gauge we're at war call. There has been a

move from no to yes and yes to know. Those who have slipped from yes of

the to be one back. That is the argument that will have to be made.

The Liberal Democrats' UK conference continued in Brighton today.

Scottish leader Willie Rennie backed national leader Tim Farron

in his call for the terms of EU withdrawal to be put

In the direct interests of the country and our democracy, we want

to give the public a democratic choice as to whether the Aggie with

the Conservative Party with regard to the European Union. Could we

actually cope with another referendum, another European Union

referendum along with the Scottish independence referendum? We

certainly could not. The Liberal Democratic party in an ideal

situation to lap up all these centre ground votes. Because of the

hangover of the alliance with the Conservative Party, it is simply not

going to happen. In the speech today, he talked a lot about the

Conservatives and the Scottish National party, but should he be

chasing votes from Labour? I am not too sure of the really know what

they should be choosing. It is very hard to think who is going to vote

for the Liberal Democrats at the moment. I cannot really see we are

the next winning Fort is going to come from. What is the effect in

Parliament? Very little. They are not even the fourth party. It is a

pity, because Rennie it is one of the best performance. In some ways,

I feel sorry for him. He has suffered for what his Westminster

colleagues have done over the years. That is it for tonight.

Thanks for watching. It is the second anniversary of the

independence referendum. I am back again tomorrow

night at the usual time.