20/10/2016 Scotland 2016

The draft bill's finally been unveiled.

But is the Scottish Government any closer to triggering IndyRef 2?

Hello and welcome. Fresh from his visit to Brussels, I will be asking

the minister if made any progress securing Scotland's place in the EU.

After the government publishes a confrontational on a key bill, is it

a question of when the referendum will be? And the boundary changes

that could see Scotland losing its only Tory and Labour MPs.

"A consultation on a draft bill should it prove that independence

It's not the most rousing call to arms.

But, coming just days ahead of Nicola Sturgeon's planned meeting

with Theresa May in Downing Street, it may just bolster

the First Minister's negotiating hand.

Of course, without making an actual commitment

to hold a second referendum, far less naming a date,

there's a question of just how much leverage the First Minister

Orton has arrived. Following the summer heat of the EU referendum

campaign, it seems our politicians are now digging in for the winter.

Today, the Scottish Government published its proposed bill for a

second independence referendum, but how much does that actually had to

do with winning independence? -- Autumn has arrived. Scottish

ministers have been in Brussels this week for talks on what Brexit might

look like for Scotland. They want Scotland to stay in the single

market, even if the rest of the UK does not. And now the government

says it has to be ready to hold IndyRef two fit things Scottish

interests are not being represented. We have a mandate, in terms of this

question coming from Scottish parliament elections that we won.

The ball is now on the court of the UK Government to respect how

Scotland has voted and secure Scotland's place in Europe. So it is

over to them to respond positively to that. But that is why we are

keeping independent as an option on the table, to ensure that if

necessary that is what we were used to protect our place in Europe. But

the SNP's opponents say that is not the answer. I don't think any of the

questions that Brexit raises are answered by ripping Scotland out of

our own union of Nations that is worth four times more in trade. And

I do not accept that when the clip sturgeon says that I voted to remain

and that means a vote against independent. Threatening to rot --

rip Scotland out of our union does not solve it. They are determined to

go ahead with the plans. One expert says a referendum could be held next

May. But there could be a legal stumbling block. Any bill passed by

the Parliament has to be within its competence. There were doubts

expressed last time whether the Scottish Parliament have the

competence to vote and legislate for a referendum. This time round, the

Scottish Government says they will ask the UK Government to make an

order under section 30 of the Scotland act to authorise the

referendum. That is what they did at the last referendum. But I doubt

that the UK Government would agree to that. On the Scottish Government

still faces potentially the biggest challenge of all, opinion polls

suggest no major upsurge in support of independence as the Brexit vote.

With a narrow majority still said to be in favour of Scotland remaining

in the UK, the independence movement right now, at least, faces a big

challenge of winning another referendum.

Well, earlier I spoke to the Scottish Government's

You had a perfectly good referendum Bill a couple of years ago. Why do

you need to have a consultation on a new draft bill? You can get it

better. There was universal acclaim that the referendum was very well

run. About the changes in electoral law since then. It is important

though is reflected within the bill. For example, if I tell you people

who have a proxy have to be on the register. That was not the case two

years ago. Verification of postal votes as well. That was not

compulsory, although it was done. It will now be compulsory. So it is

important that we do that. And also important that we say to people that

the referendum as an option within the options we are considering. It

has to be an option. And in the manifesto, which I was elected and

the SNP was elected on in May it said specifically that the

referendum could be triggered by change of circumstances, material

change and specifically said that would be from, for example, trying

to take the people of Scotland out of the EU against our will. Is this

being published? Is it coincidental that the school sturgeon is having a

meeting with Theresa May next week. Nicola Sturgeon --. No, there are a

range of options being considered. But this is a fast-moving situation.

Over the last month, we have had an enormous amount of developments. It

is important that things are sequenced well. In order to put the

option of independence alongside the other options, you have to allow

legislation to do that. At the conference last week, the First

Minister made it clear that she was sending a signal to the Prime

Minister that I am going to publicist Bill and I'm not scared to

use that option. -- published this bill. Since then, to May has made it

clear that she is not prepared to negotiate a separate deal for

Scotland. So the tactic is not working. There are special

circumstances being discussed for the City of London, for bankers, but

not for Scottish people. But she has made it clear that there will be no

membership of the single market, no free movement of Labour in any part

of the UK. Why not then just trigger a referendum now? Because we are in

the process of negotiation. Quite rightly, the Scottish Government

said the Scottish Parliament, we will look at the options. We will

negotiate in good faith and seriously. That is what we intend to

do. We have a meeting in London to take that process on. But we have to

do in Scotland say our interests come first. Not diktats from

elsewhere. Our interests come first. And we have to look at the right

options, that includes free movement and access to the single market. You

say makes progress. You have set the bar pretty high. You have made it

clear that you want full membership of the single market and free

movement of Labour. Are you saying that if you don't get that, nothing

less will be acceptable? Cannot understand you would say that

setting the bar high. That is what we got. Our principle is no

detriment. Why should the people of Scotland go forward with less than

they have now, because of a decision that was made in Scotland? But is

not setting the bar high. That is being very realistic about the

rights and expectations of the people of Scotland. You could not go

to the Scottish people and say, if you vote for independence, we would

have uninterrupted membership of the EU. No European has said that would

be the case. We would likely have to go out of Europe and find our work

trying to get back in. I don't think that is necessarily true. This is a

complex set of circumstances, but have never been experienced before.

Some people will cite the reunification of Germany. Europe

adapted to those. And Europe can adapt and other doubt. It comes down

to what the heads of member states thing. The Spanish by Miniter told

to reason me that Spain will support the integrity of the UK and will not

encourage any kind of succession is related to Brexit. -- Spanish Prime

Minister. But the Spanish have said has been consistent. They have said

the internal constitutional order is what they will respect. And that

commenced independence through a democratic process. They will not

interfere. The constitutional order here demands the UK Government pays

attention to what the devolved administrations think and do. We are

part of the process. That needs to be understood in London. You had a

meeting in Brussels yesterday with the European Parliament's top Brexit

negotiator. Has he given any indication that he would entertain a

bespoke deal for Scotland? Everyone I speak to make the same point. This

is an internal matter for the UK. It has to be done through the internal

constitutional processes. For example, concern is expressed that

the present right wing Tory government is trying to stop

Parliament actually having a view on implementing Article 50. It is

important, of course, to speak to the EU officials. Going back to my

previous point, you need to be speaking to the European leaders,

the leaders of the member states. And over the past year Nicola

Sturgeon has not been successful in being able to have any talks with

them. I have had to say, we have had endless conversations at official

level. And ministers have too. There has been an enormous contact and

will continue to be, despite the best efforts... Not with anyone

senior. These conversations take place. We need to make sure that

Europe at every level understands what Scotland's case is. What have

they been saying? You cannot mention names. Have you been told there is

support for you? What there is support for is that the UK paid in a

proper constitutional manner. It does not want to bully people. And

that it actually has the approach to this that will produce some

dividends for it and other people. That is the negotiating process

within the UK and within the EU, that everyone wants to see take

place. So far, the UK has been seen to be wanting on that. Those who are

keen on the European project and those who want to make sure that we

continue to get the best out of that relationship. Thank you.

With me now is the Green's Ross Greer.

And in Edinburgh is the Tory's Miles Briggs.

Ross, a draft consultation bill. No commitments, no dates. I do getting

impatient? No, I think the responsible thing to do is to put

this out and see what people think a referendum should look like, if it

has to happen. Brexit hasn't actually started to happen yet.

Article 50 has not been triggered. It is only right and responsible

that we have a referendum on the table if that turns out to be the

only option on the best one for protecting our interests, economic,

social, worker's writes, protections from Europe. The Tories are getting

animated about this. But it is an innocuous document, isn't it? It is.

But I think it is important that we have not seen the Scottish

Government move forward from this. Two years ago, we had a long debate

about this. The people of Scotland spoke. The Scottish Government is

now not actually recognising that result and not listening to the

people of Scotland. I think that is where a lot of people are

disappointed today. As was mentioned, this seems to be more

about trying to generate a threat. Actually, Scottish Government should

be speaking to the UK to get the best deal they can. But something

called Brexit has happened. Everything has changed. Brexit has

taken place, but that was a vote from the UK level. And we as a UK

are going to have to negotiate to get the best possible deal for every

part of our country. That is where we are Scottish Conservatives have

tried to get the Scottish Government focus. I'm sorry to say that Mike

Russell is saying he is in the middle of negotiations on this. He

is clearly using this now Ross, should he be concentrating

more on the negotiations with Theresa May? The UK Government will

not let the Scottish Government work with them. I am not here to become

the Scottish Government's behalf, but it is plain to see. Theresa may

has made it clear there will be no special deal for Scotland, but she's

happy to negotiate a special deal for the City of London, that we will

have to contribute towards. She will not permit the Scottish Government

to be round the table in these negotiations. So what Miles saying

is nonsense. The Scottish Government cannot work with the UK Government

because the UK Government will not let them. The responsible thing to

do is to have this on the table because our mandate from the

Scottish people is to protect their interests. If it turns out the only

way to protect their interests is to give them a choice on independence

for Scotland, that is what we should do because that is how democracies

work. Miles, you obviously don't agree with Scottish independence,

but as a negotiating tactic, it is a strong hand for the First Minister

to hold, by saying, if we don't get what we want, we can trigger this

independence referendum. Scotland has two governments, the Holyrood

government and the Westminster government. I would like to see them

both working together and not being able to not trust each other. In

Westminster, the feeling is increasingly that the Scottish

Government have set out where they are going to take this, which is to

fight towards another independence referendum, which was rejected just

two years ago and the polls show there is no appetite for another

one. I think it is time the Scottish Government listens to people instead

of playing games with this. Miles, the Westminster government has to

transfer the authority to the Scottish Parliament to hold a

referendum under the section 30 order. Would Theresa May be morally

bound to do that if there was a majority in the Scottish Parliament

to back this Bill? As with two years ago with the referendum, Westminster

has the constitutional legal right to announce on this. That was a

joint agreement that there would be a referendum. I don't believe the

people in Scotland want another referendum. I would like to see the

UK Government listen to the people of Scotland. When you look across

Scotland, more people are against a referendum and that is increasingly

becoming the case. Does that mean you would stand in the way of a

referendum? At the moment, we have a minority SNP government. Ross stood

on a platform that he would only support a vote in parliament if a

million people signed a petition. That was in your manifesto. It does

say that if a new referendum is to happen, it should come about by the

will of the people. At the moment, there is no clear will on the part

of the people. The people of Scotland elected a parliament where

the parliament is open to a second referendum. We obviously support

independence. The people elected a parliament that raised the

possibility of a second referendum. Plenty of people voted for the SNP

who do not support independence. The opinion polls do not show a clear

majority in favour. The opinion polls have shown a shift in both

directions. Miles dodged the question. He's not willing to

address directly that if the Scottish parliament votes to have a

referendum, the parliament that the people of Scotland votes for a

referendum, his government might deny the people of Scotland the

chance to have another vote on the future of our country. I would be

interested to hear a straight yes or no, will the Conservatives at

Westminster veto something that the Scottish parliament voted for?

Discusses Parliament has not had a budget. I'm interested to hear Ross

backtracking on the manifesto he was elected on. There are two Greens in

my region in Lothian who said they would put this forward and they

would need a petition of a million people. There are now backtracking

on that. There are a lot of green voters who are unionist voters would

be angry with them. In the coming weeks, we will need to see what the

green position is on this. In terms of this vote and Westminster, both

governments will have to work on this. Scottish Conservatives, we

want to turn the page on the constitutional arguments. Scotland

had a vote and it is time the SNP to recognise that the people of

Scotland decided to stay part of the UK. We have to leave it there.

Today, the Secretary of State for Scotland defied the old adage

that turkeys don't vote for Christmas,

when he embraced a proposal from the Boundary Commission

to reduce the number of MPs in the House of Commons.

The plans, intended to make constituencies

across the UK more equal, would see all but three

of Scotland's Westminster constituencies change.

That could threaten not only David Mundell, the last remaining

Tory MP here, but also Labour's last commoner north of the border, too.

Labour and the SNP have described it as "unacceptable".

Earlier, to try and shed light on what might be afoot,

I spoke to John Curtice, who happens to be in Brussels tonight.

So John, what do the boundary commission's proposals mean for

Scotland? Their proposals mean that because the number of Parliamentary

constituencies is being reduced across the UK as a whole from 650 to

600, Scotland has to take its share of that cut and instead of the 59

MPs we have at the moment, there will only be 53 from 2020. The two

Island constituencies, Orkney and Shetland, those are protected. So

although they are very small, they remain as they are. But across the

mainland, six fewer constituencies. The politics of this are potentially

fascinating. Firstly, Ian Murray's seat, Ian Murray, the only remaining

Labour MP to survive the tsunami of 18 months ago, his Edinburgh South

seat is cut down the middle and it is extremely unlikely that he would

manage to win either of the two seats into which his seat is

divided. But equally, with this being done at the instigation of the

Conservative government, David Mundell in the borders, his new

constituency certainly looks less winnable for him than his existing

dome free show constituency -- Dumfriesshire. And if everyone voted

the same way as they had done, he also would have lost in 2015,

primarily because his new constituency goes much further north

into South Lanarkshire, taking in places like fourth, where is he

loses some relatively good ground for him in some of the more rural

parts of his constituency. So it is not good for David Mundell. To that

extent at least, not good news for either Conservative or Labour. 18

months ago, they could have been without either of their Scottish

MPs. But of course, because we are talking about the fact that the SNP

have 56 out of 59 seats, if you are going to take away six, most of them

will be SNP seats. There were certainly be a substantial game of

musical chairs. Many MPs will see their constituencies substantially

redrawn, but many of them will say, I think this is the seat that is

closest to my current one, and they will try to bag that. But there are

some who are potentially at risk. Two relatively well-known names for

whom that is true are the deputy SNP leader Stewart Hosie, his Dundee

East constituency pretty much disappears and is swallowed up by

Angus. Equally, Ian Blackford, the MP for Ross and sky, his is the seat

that effectively disappears as the Highlands loses one of its seats.

Therefore, some SNP MPs are looking at a shaky foundation at the moment.

If you look at what has happened in local government by-elections over

the last 18 months since last year's general election, you discover that

on average, Labour's vote has been down by about 13 points. The SNP

vote has been up by about 12 points, and the opinion polls are now better

for the SNP and worse than Labour than they were in 2012, when local

elections were last fought. The 2012 local elections were relatively

disappointing for the SNP, certainly by the standards of 2015 and 2016.

But if those local government by-elections are any guide, it looks

as though the SNP could well win control of a dozen councils in

Scotland and be the largest party in the other 12. The final bit of the

Scottish jigsaw that has so far eluded the SNP, being the dominant

party in Scottish local government, may also be a prize they could win.

Professor John Curtice in Brussels, of all places.

Joining me to discuss that and the rest of today's stories

are Professor of Global Security

at Glasgow University, Peter Jackson.

And Campbell Gunn, who was a Special Adviser

to the First Minister for three years,

and before that was Political Editor at the Sunday Post.

Campbell, these boundary changes. The SNP are very much against them.

I bought in one sense, they might be good for them -- they might be for

them because they could get rid of Scotland's last Labour MP. It is an

anti democratic process if you are reducing the size of the House of

Commons, which was elected, and increasing the size of the House of

Lords, which was an elected. The House of Lords is the second-largest

unelected body in the world after the Chinese assembly. It could be a

worry for Scottish democracy if there were no Tory or Labour MPs in

Scotland. Let's talk about the draft Referendum Bill. Pete, do you think

Westminster will grab Holyrood powers to hold the bill once it is

published and if it passes through the Scottish Parliament? To hold a

referendum? It would be very difficult for the UK Government to

deny a referendum against after what has happened and after the changes

that have taken place in the UK's international position as a result

of the vote to leave the European Union. I can't see the UK Government

in Westminster telling the Scottish Parliament, which is elected by

Scottish people, that it can't hold this referendum. It would fan the

flames of independence to the point where it would be difficult to see

Scotland not becoming independent eventually. What do you think of

this draft Referendum Bill? As it is part of the necessary process you

have to go through, or is it a sign of the SNP playing for time? No, it

is a part of the process you have to go through. The SNP were elected on

a manifesto which promised that if there was a change in circumstances,

they would bring forward the bill. So they have the right to do this.

As Peter says, technically of course, the Westminster government

could allow this -- they could block this, but politically, I don't see

how they could do that if the Scottish Government voted in favour

of it. It would really fan the flames of independence. But what if

the SNP said they wanted to hold its next year? Could Theresa May said, I

am still negotiating with Europe, not just now? That is possible. If

Theresa May then said, I will allow you to hold it, but in a certain

time, the Scottish Government would accept that. But there are so many

unknowns and this is such a fluid situation that predicting the timing

of a referendum or whether it would happen is really up in the air.

Peter, have a try what dates do you think? I don't think there is any

sense in having a referendum until we have any clear idea of what deal

is being negotiated by the Westminster government to leave the

European Union. Otherwise, what would we be voting on? That is a

problem, because Nicola Sturgeon says she would want to hold this

before the end of the article 15 negotiating period, which doesn't

give her much time. It gives her until 2019. If I was betting, which

I wouldn't because it is so fluid, I would say it would be towards the

end of that rather than towards the beginning of the process. Let's talk

about Philip Green. MPs have backed a call to the former BHS owner to be

stripped of his knighthood. Here is what Ian Blackford, the SNP's

pension spokesperson at Westminster, had to say about it. Philip Green's

week apology is a case of too little, too late. He lined his

pockets and didn't stop to think about his employees. Campbell, how

likely is it that Mr Greene will lose his knighthood? Sir Philip

Green, rather! It seems likely, although this debate was pretty

meaningless. That was a hanging jury today. They were out to criticise

him, no matter what. There have only been about half a

dozen people who have been stripped of a knighthood over the period. I

believe the first one was Sir Roger Casement during the First World War.

Then I don't think there were any until Anthony Blunt. Casement was

convicted. Blunt was never convicted of anything. Fred Goodwin was never

convicted of anything. Lester Piggott was. I'm trying to pick who

else has been stripped of a knighthood. It is a committee of the

great and good of the civil service, permanent secretaries, who formed

this forfeiture committee. It is up to them. Peter, could this detract

from the debate about former employees getting access to their

pensions? That is the key point. It sounds an unfavourable light on

the honours system generally, in my view. But the key outcome of the

whole process should be these people getting access to pensions to which

they have a right, into which they were paying. It is world statistics

day-to-day. Of course, we see lots of figures flying about when it

comes to political debates, like these figures behind me. Campbell,

no one believes in figures any more. We live in a post-truth era, don't

we? Yes, there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Some statistics are

quite straightforward. If you look at the number of police who are

employed by Police Scotland and the Scottish Government say we have 1000

more, that is easily counted. But if you look at jail figures, they are

such a shot in the dark. Some statistics are Kay, others not at

all. We have to leave it there. We only had a fraction of the time we

expected on that last answer. We will be back on Monday night at

10.30. Good morning Scotland is on Radio Scotland from 6am tomorrow

morning. From all of us, bye-bye. DINAH WASHINGTON:

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