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Good evening. On Spotlight tonight we reflect on a big week | 0:00:12 | 0:00:16 | |
in local and national politics. | 0:00:16 | 0:00:18 | |
We've seen the laying to rest of Ian Paisley, | 0:00:18 | 0:00:21 | |
a man who devoted his life - at least the political part of it - | 0:00:21 | 0:00:24 | |
to the maintenance of the Union. | 0:00:24 | 0:00:25 | |
Tomorrow that union could be irrevocable severed, | 0:00:25 | 0:00:28 | |
not by the success of Irish nationalism, | 0:00:28 | 0:00:31 | |
Paisley's eternal nightmare, but by the decision of the Scottish people. | 0:00:31 | 0:00:35 | |
Meanwhile, the achievement which has brought Mr Paisley | 0:00:35 | 0:00:38 | |
most praise since his death, | 0:00:38 | 0:00:40 | |
the setting up of a power-sharing government with Sinn Fein, | 0:00:40 | 0:00:43 | |
looks increasingly under threat with his successor, Peter Robinson, | 0:00:43 | 0:00:46 | |
warning that Stormont is no longer fit for purpose. | 0:00:46 | 0:00:50 | |
Tonight we reflect on all of this but we begin with Ian Paisley, | 0:00:50 | 0:00:54 | |
as history begins to decide if his overall contribution | 0:00:54 | 0:00:57 | |
to Northern Ireland was beneficial or malign. | 0:00:57 | 0:01:00 | |
Declan Lawn assesses his life and times. | 0:01:00 | 0:01:03 | |
A colossus who thrived on conflict, | 0:01:10 | 0:01:13 | |
both religious... | 0:01:13 | 0:01:15 | |
Believe in the Lord Jesus Christ | 0:01:15 | 0:01:19 | |
and thou shalt be saved! | 0:01:19 | 0:01:24 | |
..and political. | 0:01:24 | 0:01:26 | |
Fellow Loyalists, | 0:01:26 | 0:01:28 | |
we meet today | 0:01:28 | 0:01:31 | |
in the most grave of circumstances. | 0:01:31 | 0:01:35 | |
And the future of this state is at stake. | 0:01:35 | 0:01:41 | |
But all that changed. | 0:01:41 | 0:01:43 | |
That was yesterday. | 0:01:43 | 0:01:46 | |
This is today. | 0:01:46 | 0:01:48 | |
And tomorrow will be tomorrow. | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
I believe Northern Ireland has come to a time of peace. | 0:01:52 | 0:01:58 | |
Ian Paisley's progress from political outsider | 0:01:58 | 0:02:02 | |
and religious firebrand to become the leader of Unionism | 0:02:02 | 0:02:05 | |
and ultimately First Minister was a remarkable one. | 0:02:05 | 0:02:09 | |
And this place, the stage of the Ulster Hall in Belfast, | 0:02:09 | 0:02:12 | |
played its own part, because it was from here in the very earliest days | 0:02:12 | 0:02:16 | |
that he would address religious meetings, | 0:02:16 | 0:02:18 | |
and it was clear from the outset that his was voice to be reckoned with. | 0:02:18 | 0:02:23 | |
Whether you be a Protestant or a Romanist, | 0:02:23 | 0:02:27 | |
whether you be a Jew or belong to any other religion, | 0:02:27 | 0:02:33 | |
whether you be an Hibernian or an Orangeman, | 0:02:33 | 0:02:37 | |
whether you be religious or irreligious, | 0:02:37 | 0:02:40 | |
it matters not. | 0:02:40 | 0:02:42 | |
You were born naturally as a child of wrath. | 0:02:42 | 0:02:48 | |
It was as a preacher that Paisley first rose to prominence | 0:02:51 | 0:02:55 | |
in the 1950s. | 0:02:55 | 0:02:57 | |
Ordained at age 20, by the time he was 25 | 0:02:58 | 0:03:02 | |
he had established the Free Presbyterian Church. | 0:03:02 | 0:03:06 | |
In the Mass... | 0:03:06 | 0:03:08 | |
His firebrand fundamentalism won him a large and loyal congregation, | 0:03:08 | 0:03:13 | |
and also plenty of enemies. | 0:03:13 | 0:03:15 | |
I want to say that this wafer, | 0:03:15 | 0:03:19 | |
after it is consecrated, | 0:03:19 | 0:03:22 | |
the Church of Rome teaches | 0:03:22 | 0:03:24 | |
it is the actual body, bones, blood... | 0:03:24 | 0:03:30 | |
CONGREGATION LAUGHS | 0:03:30 | 0:03:32 | |
..of Jesus Christ. | 0:03:32 | 0:03:35 | |
Had he restricted himself to preaching, Ian Paisley might have | 0:03:35 | 0:03:39 | |
become little more than a footnote in the history of his country. | 0:03:39 | 0:03:42 | |
But with Ian Paisley, politics was also a calling. | 0:03:44 | 0:03:49 | |
By the late 1960s he was already a formidable political force. | 0:03:51 | 0:03:55 | |
His congregation had become a constituency. | 0:03:55 | 0:04:00 | |
He had a tremendous charisma and was a brilliant orator, | 0:04:00 | 0:04:03 | |
you know, in the style of kind of demagogic orators of the past. | 0:04:03 | 0:04:07 | |
And he appealed to that kind of heart of Ulster Presbyterian | 0:04:07 | 0:04:11 | |
fundamentalism. | 0:04:11 | 0:04:13 | |
From the outset he was never far from controversy, | 0:04:13 | 0:04:16 | |
or from accusations that his rhetoric was responsible for violence. | 0:04:16 | 0:04:20 | |
He clearly was a very persuasive speaker. | 0:04:35 | 0:04:38 | |
I mean, he had enormous gifts of oratory. | 0:04:38 | 0:04:41 | |
I said to him on one occasion that I recognised the fact that God | 0:04:41 | 0:04:44 | |
had given him great gifts, but I said to him, | 0:04:44 | 0:04:46 | |
"The question is, what use are you going to make of these great gifts? | 0:04:46 | 0:04:50 | |
"Are you simply going to be a perpetuation of that which | 0:04:50 | 0:04:52 | |
"you have inherited, or are you going to be able to do something | 0:04:52 | 0:04:56 | |
"totally different and very constructive with these gifts | 0:04:56 | 0:04:59 | |
"and be able to lead the Unionist and Protestant community | 0:04:59 | 0:05:02 | |
"into an accommodation with the majority of people in Ireland?" | 0:05:02 | 0:05:05 | |
Are you hoping to avoid violence at your meetings now, Mr Paisley? | 0:05:05 | 0:05:08 | |
There never was any violence at our meetings. | 0:05:08 | 0:05:11 | |
Never any violence. Our people are not violent people. | 0:05:11 | 0:05:14 | |
To many, Ian Paisley's uncompromising hard-line stance was an antidote | 0:05:14 | 0:05:19 | |
to what they saw as weakness at the heart of official Unionism. | 0:05:19 | 0:05:23 | |
It's all very well now to talk about Unionists in a siege mentality, | 0:05:25 | 0:05:28 | |
but the reality is we were living in a period | 0:05:28 | 0:05:31 | |
when the Union was in doubt. | 0:05:31 | 0:05:33 | |
And Paisley was the man at that point who was actually capturing | 0:05:33 | 0:05:37 | |
all of those fears, all of those emotions. | 0:05:37 | 0:05:39 | |
Some people would say Ian Paisley | 0:05:39 | 0:05:41 | |
was responsible for a large part of the trouble, | 0:05:41 | 0:05:44 | |
through his street protests and stuff, but they're ignoring | 0:05:44 | 0:05:47 | |
the things he was protesting against, | 0:05:47 | 0:05:50 | |
and Paisley always said, if you're under siege, | 0:05:50 | 0:05:54 | |
the best sort of mentality to have is a siege mentality. | 0:05:54 | 0:05:58 | |
..members of the Dail, | 0:05:58 | 0:06:00 | |
you shall not rule over us! | 0:06:00 | 0:06:03 | |
We are saying no surrender! | 0:06:03 | 0:06:07 | |
CHEERING | 0:06:07 | 0:06:10 | |
He may not have led Unionism then, but at its defining moments, | 0:06:10 | 0:06:15 | |
Paisley's was often the voice that rang out loudest. | 0:06:15 | 0:06:18 | |
In the mid 1980s, the issue was the Anglo-Irish Agreement. | 0:06:18 | 0:06:23 | |
Ian Paisley rose to the occasion | 0:06:23 | 0:06:25 | |
in one of the seminal speeches of his career. | 0:06:25 | 0:06:27 | |
We say never! | 0:06:27 | 0:06:30 | |
Never! Never! Never! | 0:06:30 | 0:06:35 | |
CHEERING | 0:06:35 | 0:06:36 | |
At times, his protests crossed the line | 0:06:40 | 0:06:42 | |
between constitutional politics and threat. | 0:06:42 | 0:06:46 | |
In 1986, he addressed a gathering of Ulster Resistance, | 0:06:47 | 0:06:51 | |
an organisation which had promised to defend Ulster by any means | 0:06:51 | 0:06:55 | |
in the event of a British sell-out. | 0:06:55 | 0:06:57 | |
In his powerful oratory, in his rejection... | 0:07:15 | 0:07:19 | |
violently, rhetorically, | 0:07:19 | 0:07:21 | |
of Catholicism and Irish nationalism, | 0:07:21 | 0:07:24 | |
he was a caricature, almost, of the reasons why Republicans | 0:07:24 | 0:07:29 | |
believed their campaign was necessary. | 0:07:29 | 0:07:32 | |
He confirmed to so many that the state of Northern Ireland was | 0:07:32 | 0:07:37 | |
irreformable, and that the only way was a united Ireland, | 0:07:37 | 0:07:41 | |
because Unionism could not be changed. | 0:07:41 | 0:07:44 | |
The state of Northern Ireland had to be rejected. | 0:07:44 | 0:07:46 | |
It was personified in Ian Paisley. | 0:07:46 | 0:07:48 | |
In the 1990s, when Republicans and Unionists | 0:07:48 | 0:07:52 | |
finally reached an agreement, | 0:07:52 | 0:07:54 | |
it seemed as if Paisleyism as a political force was on the wane. | 0:07:54 | 0:07:58 | |
-We're to got home, he says. -Well, what can you do? | 0:08:00 | 0:08:03 | |
At the peace talks of 1998, he seemed marginalised, | 0:08:03 | 0:08:08 | |
hecklers accusing him of inciting loyalists and then abandoning them. | 0:08:08 | 0:08:12 | |
-Ian, where you going to take us? -The Grand Old Duke of York! | 0:08:13 | 0:08:17 | |
ALL SHOUT | 0:08:17 | 0:08:19 | |
It appeared as if history had got the better of Ian Paisley. | 0:08:19 | 0:08:22 | |
But Ian Paisley had other ideas. | 0:08:22 | 0:08:25 | |
You have to get these people out now. | 0:08:25 | 0:08:29 | |
Few people could have imagined the remarkable political comeback | 0:08:29 | 0:08:32 | |
that was to play out over the following decade. | 0:08:32 | 0:08:35 | |
Ian Paisley was politically astute. | 0:08:35 | 0:08:37 | |
He was able to capitalise on Unionist doubts about the peace process | 0:08:37 | 0:08:42 | |
and then lead his own party into it | 0:08:42 | 0:08:44 | |
and strike a remarkable deal with Sinn Fein. | 0:08:44 | 0:08:47 | |
His record is that he castigated, ridiculed and ultimately destroyed | 0:08:47 | 0:08:53 | |
any Unionist leader who strayed from the doctrinaire Unionist line. | 0:08:53 | 0:08:59 | |
Faulkner, O'Neill, Trimble, all humiliated, brushed aside. | 0:08:59 | 0:09:04 | |
Any possibility of compromise with nationalists in the north | 0:09:04 | 0:09:09 | |
was removed. | 0:09:09 | 0:09:11 | |
ALL CHANTING: Cheerio! Cheerio! Cheerio! | 0:09:11 | 0:09:14 | |
And then, obviously, ironically, | 0:09:14 | 0:09:17 | |
at a quarter to midnight in his own life, he decided to seal the deal | 0:09:17 | 0:09:22 | |
with Republicans and close the chapter on his past. | 0:09:22 | 0:09:27 | |
For some of his most loyal supporters, the shock was too much. | 0:09:27 | 0:09:31 | |
I'm upset, because everything we have been taught | 0:09:31 | 0:09:35 | |
has been turned right round and stood on its head. | 0:09:35 | 0:09:38 | |
Quite clearly, the electorate believed the previous utterances | 0:09:38 | 0:09:42 | |
of Ian Paisley that he would never be sitting in government | 0:09:42 | 0:09:46 | |
with Sinn Fein. I think that this was the greatest fraud | 0:09:46 | 0:09:50 | |
perpetrated upon the Unionist community. | 0:09:50 | 0:09:52 | |
But for those in favour of the Agreement, | 0:09:52 | 0:09:55 | |
Paisley's shift was a triumph of bravery. | 0:09:55 | 0:09:59 | |
He was at times very slow, | 0:09:59 | 0:10:02 | |
and then at times very courageous and very fast. | 0:10:02 | 0:10:06 | |
And in the end, he in a sense leapt over his party much to the anxiety | 0:10:06 | 0:10:11 | |
and nervousness and opposition and criticism of some in the DUP ranks | 0:10:11 | 0:10:15 | |
to make this courageous leap. | 0:10:15 | 0:10:17 | |
And I don't think anybody else in Unionism could have done that. | 0:10:17 | 0:10:22 | |
Even the hostility of the early years | 0:10:22 | 0:10:25 | |
to leaders from the Republic had melted away. | 0:10:25 | 0:10:28 | |
They wouldn't have thought that the person who threw snowballs | 0:10:28 | 0:10:31 | |
would be the person who would be prepared to welcome | 0:10:31 | 0:10:34 | |
that accommodation which involved our relationship between | 0:10:34 | 0:10:38 | |
the north and the south. | 0:10:38 | 0:10:39 | |
And he would go down to the Boyne and shake the hands of Bertie Ahern | 0:10:39 | 0:10:43 | |
in such an enthusiastic way, which is kind of an iconic moment. | 0:10:43 | 0:10:46 | |
There are certain images which are very powerful images | 0:10:46 | 0:10:50 | |
and they not only describe what's happening, | 0:10:50 | 0:10:52 | |
they actually shape and influence what's happening. | 0:10:52 | 0:10:55 | |
And those kinds of handshakes | 0:10:55 | 0:10:57 | |
and that kind of cooperation of Martin McGuinness | 0:10:57 | 0:11:00 | |
move things on in a constructive and helpful kind of way. | 0:11:00 | 0:11:06 | |
At the end of his life he was a solution to | 0:11:06 | 0:11:10 | |
the problem that he had, himself, helped to cause. | 0:11:10 | 0:11:13 | |
But that wasn't all. | 0:11:13 | 0:11:15 | |
The personal warmth of his relationship with | 0:11:15 | 0:11:17 | |
Martin McGuinness made headlines all over the world. | 0:11:17 | 0:11:21 | |
That warmth may have helped steady the peace process. | 0:11:21 | 0:11:24 | |
No change. Not an inch and no surrender. | 0:11:24 | 0:11:29 | |
But it also contributed to Ian Paisley's undoing. | 0:11:29 | 0:11:32 | |
A year after striking a deal with Sinn Fein, | 0:11:32 | 0:11:35 | |
Paisley had been pushed aside by his party and deposed by his church. | 0:11:35 | 0:11:39 | |
His family even stopped attending the church he had founded. | 0:11:39 | 0:11:43 | |
Our hearts were all broken for Ian. | 0:11:43 | 0:11:47 | |
The children and myself as well, | 0:11:47 | 0:11:53 | |
and I felt he had been deeply wounded | 0:11:53 | 0:11:55 | |
in the house of his friends, | 0:11:55 | 0:11:58 | |
and I just felt that it was really iniquitous of them, and a really | 0:11:58 | 0:12:03 | |
dreadful, hurtful, nasty, ungodly, un-Christian thing to do. | 0:12:03 | 0:12:10 | |
Stability at Stormont may have been Ian Paisley's great achievement, | 0:12:10 | 0:12:15 | |
but even at the hour of his death, that had come into question. | 0:12:15 | 0:12:19 | |
We shouldn't underestimate the deal that he eventually signed up to, | 0:12:19 | 0:12:24 | |
but part of his legacy is also that he didn't prepare | 0:12:24 | 0:12:29 | |
and he didn't condition his people to that compromise | 0:12:29 | 0:12:33 | |
and to what that would entail. | 0:12:33 | 0:12:36 | |
After having done the deal at St Andrews, | 0:12:36 | 0:12:40 | |
he would then lose his church, | 0:12:40 | 0:12:42 | |
he would then lose the leadership of his own party, | 0:12:42 | 0:12:45 | |
and he would leave Unionism in the rudderless, | 0:12:45 | 0:12:48 | |
fractious state that it is today. | 0:12:48 | 0:12:51 | |
Ian Paisley loomed large over the conflict in Northern Ireland | 0:12:51 | 0:12:55 | |
and its conclusion. | 0:12:55 | 0:12:56 | |
The question for history is whether he will be remembered for | 0:12:56 | 0:13:00 | |
the final act of his life or the turmoil that came before. | 0:13:00 | 0:13:03 | |
Ian Paisley's political legacy is power sharing | 0:13:04 | 0:13:07 | |
in a devolved assembly at Stormont. | 0:13:07 | 0:13:09 | |
Though the dominant parties the DUP | 0:13:09 | 0:13:12 | |
and Sinn Fein have drawn battle lines | 0:13:12 | 0:13:14 | |
which threaten to destroy what's been built over | 0:13:14 | 0:13:16 | |
the last seven years. | 0:13:16 | 0:13:18 | |
Jennifer O'Leary considers the obstacles to progress. | 0:13:18 | 0:13:21 | |
A day and a deal, decades in the making. | 0:13:31 | 0:13:34 | |
To some, it was Ian Paisley's finest hour. | 0:13:34 | 0:13:38 | |
How good it will be to be part of a wonderful healing in this province. | 0:13:38 | 0:13:44 | |
Today, we have begun, we have begun the work aplenty. | 0:13:44 | 0:13:50 | |
And we will all look forward for the great and blessed harvest. | 0:13:50 | 0:13:55 | |
Thank you. | 0:13:55 | 0:13:56 | |
APPLAUSE | 0:13:56 | 0:13:58 | |
But it hasn't quite worked out like that. | 0:13:59 | 0:14:02 | |
Seven years on and many now question what the administration | 0:14:05 | 0:14:09 | |
has actually achieved. | 0:14:09 | 0:14:11 | |
Stormont appears deadlocked. | 0:14:11 | 0:14:13 | |
At the heart of the matter is the problem of what happens when | 0:14:13 | 0:14:17 | |
the partners sharing power cannot agree on a way forward. | 0:14:17 | 0:14:21 | |
A far cry from the early days of promise. | 0:14:21 | 0:14:24 | |
It's led the First Minister to describe | 0:14:24 | 0:14:26 | |
the arrangements for devolved government here as dysfunctional. | 0:14:26 | 0:14:31 | |
When Peter Robinson took over, there was plenty of money about. | 0:14:31 | 0:14:35 | |
But then, the property bubble burst. | 0:14:35 | 0:14:37 | |
So they were already coming into difficult decisions, | 0:14:37 | 0:14:39 | |
not just smiling together and slapping each other in the back, | 0:14:39 | 0:14:43 | |
there had to be difficult economic decisions, and that got worse. | 0:14:43 | 0:14:48 | |
Worst of all is the question of welfare reform. | 0:14:48 | 0:14:51 | |
Both Sinn Fein and the DUP oppose Westminster cuts, | 0:14:51 | 0:14:55 | |
but can't agree what to do about them. | 0:14:55 | 0:14:59 | |
We now have an issue which simply cannot be left on the shelf. | 0:14:59 | 0:15:03 | |
It's one that has to be dealt with, | 0:15:03 | 0:15:05 | |
because we simply cannot afford, in terms of welfare reform, | 0:15:05 | 0:15:10 | |
to lift up the tab of £1 billion a year, | 0:15:10 | 0:15:14 | |
when we only have a budget for resource expenditure of £10 billion. | 0:15:14 | 0:15:20 | |
Failure to implement the cuts will see Northern Ireland | 0:15:20 | 0:15:23 | |
face increasing penalties in the form of fines by the Treasury. | 0:15:23 | 0:15:27 | |
This is very difficult. | 0:15:27 | 0:15:28 | |
You cannot go on spending money the way we've been spending money | 0:15:28 | 0:15:32 | |
when we know that the welfare reform penalties are coming, | 0:15:32 | 0:15:36 | |
and that there will be Sinn Fein imposed cuts on the parties | 0:15:36 | 0:15:39 | |
and on the departments right across. That is a serious issue. | 0:15:39 | 0:15:42 | |
I believe, if welfare reform or welfare cuts is | 0:15:42 | 0:15:47 | |
the trigger for any collapse of the institutions, | 0:15:47 | 0:15:49 | |
and we are not asking for a collapse by way of the institutions, | 0:15:49 | 0:15:52 | |
we would be very disappointed that has to be the case, | 0:15:52 | 0:15:55 | |
but if people want to use that, | 0:15:55 | 0:15:58 | |
then I believe it's a surrogate reason for the collapse. | 0:15:58 | 0:16:02 | |
I think there are parties who are struggling, and I think | 0:16:02 | 0:16:05 | |
they might want to exploit the issue of the welfare cuts. | 0:16:05 | 0:16:09 | |
The increasingly fractious nature of Northern Ireland politics | 0:16:09 | 0:16:13 | |
clearly reflects a breakdown in trust between the two main parties. | 0:16:13 | 0:16:18 | |
Stormont has been dogged by community tensions over flags and parading, | 0:16:18 | 0:16:22 | |
and, in particular, on dealing with the past. | 0:16:22 | 0:16:25 | |
There have been a whole series of matters in key areas | 0:16:27 | 0:16:30 | |
like education and health, where the decision making progress | 0:16:30 | 0:16:34 | |
appeared very strained | 0:16:34 | 0:16:35 | |
and very hard to follow from a distance. | 0:16:35 | 0:16:39 | |
You would certainly have to look at the Maze/Long Kesh project because, | 0:16:39 | 0:16:42 | |
although the DUP were never overly keen on it, it was | 0:16:42 | 0:16:46 | |
very, very important to the whole Sinn Fein project. | 0:16:46 | 0:16:49 | |
They were determined that it would go ahead. | 0:16:49 | 0:16:51 | |
They believed they had a deal, that it would go ahead. | 0:16:51 | 0:16:54 | |
It was all part of a wider trade-off there. | 0:16:54 | 0:16:56 | |
So, when the plug was pulled on it in such dramatic circumstances, | 0:16:56 | 0:16:59 | |
that was a fairly dramatic confirmation | 0:16:59 | 0:17:01 | |
that things were not as they should be. | 0:17:01 | 0:17:04 | |
Martin McGuinness recently suggested that a so-called Gang of Nine | 0:17:05 | 0:17:09 | |
within the DUP forced Peter Robinson to renege on the Maze development. | 0:17:09 | 0:17:14 | |
This is bunkum, this is just nonsense speculation. | 0:17:14 | 0:17:18 | |
He doesn't know the internal workings of the DUP. | 0:17:18 | 0:17:22 | |
So, I simply cast that aside. | 0:17:22 | 0:17:24 | |
Let's get back on the real issue which is | 0:17:24 | 0:17:26 | |
the fact that we have a difficulty, | 0:17:26 | 0:17:28 | |
we have a serious issue regarding welfare reform, | 0:17:28 | 0:17:31 | |
and the implications for the budget in Northern Ireland. | 0:17:31 | 0:17:35 | |
But as with the DUP's political concerns about the Maze project, | 0:17:37 | 0:17:41 | |
observers perceive Sinn Fein's internal politics | 0:17:41 | 0:17:44 | |
holding a major sway over the current impasse over welfare reform. | 0:17:44 | 0:17:49 | |
In the south, they're criticising the government of the day | 0:17:49 | 0:17:53 | |
for making cuts and introducing austerities, and saying, "This | 0:17:53 | 0:17:58 | |
"isn't necessary, we could spend our way out of this," basically. | 0:17:58 | 0:18:03 | |
And then, if they are seen to introduce similar austerities in | 0:18:03 | 0:18:06 | |
the north, water charges would be an example, | 0:18:06 | 0:18:09 | |
they're against it in the south. | 0:18:09 | 0:18:11 | |
The other parties will accuse them of hypocrisy. | 0:18:11 | 0:18:14 | |
The First Minister's recent statement that Stormont isn't working | 0:18:14 | 0:18:18 | |
has pushed the failures of the assembly centre stage. | 0:18:18 | 0:18:22 | |
In many ways, I would say that it is almost a relief that | 0:18:22 | 0:18:26 | |
Peter Robinson has openly acknowledged | 0:18:26 | 0:18:28 | |
the depth of the problems which are being faced at Stormont. | 0:18:28 | 0:18:30 | |
Because for many years, for a long period, not just the DUP, | 0:18:30 | 0:18:34 | |
but the other main parties at Stormont would have said that | 0:18:34 | 0:18:37 | |
there are minor difficulties. | 0:18:37 | 0:18:38 | |
But, generally speaking, we have made spectacular progress, | 0:18:38 | 0:18:41 | |
we are doing wonderful work, apart from a few critics on the fringes. | 0:18:41 | 0:18:44 | |
We are proceeding as we should do. | 0:18:44 | 0:18:46 | |
When it was absolutely clear, not just to observers in the press, | 0:18:46 | 0:18:51 | |
but also to the general public, that things were not working, | 0:18:51 | 0:18:54 | |
that this was effectively a dysfunctional administration. | 0:18:54 | 0:18:57 | |
The question now is do Sinn Fein and the DUP have the ability | 0:18:57 | 0:19:02 | |
and the political will to agree a way forward, | 0:19:02 | 0:19:05 | |
or will they simply blame each other for failure? | 0:19:05 | 0:19:09 | |
The real issue is about the intransigence of Sinn Fein. | 0:19:09 | 0:19:12 | |
There seems to be just a total resistance on the part of | 0:19:12 | 0:19:16 | |
Sinn Fein to face up to the reality. | 0:19:16 | 0:19:18 | |
Well, anybody who says that they can't work power sharing, | 0:19:18 | 0:19:21 | |
in my view, they are not applying themselves. | 0:19:21 | 0:19:24 | |
They are not fit for the purpose. | 0:19:24 | 0:19:25 | |
They can be, and they should be, and, in fact, they do need to be. | 0:19:25 | 0:19:29 | |
I mean, Ian Paisley opposed the Good Friday Agreement, resolutely. | 0:19:29 | 0:19:32 | |
Ian Paisley campaigned against it. | 0:19:32 | 0:19:35 | |
But ultimately, eventually, when negotiations were concluded, | 0:19:35 | 0:19:39 | |
he became the First Minister. | 0:19:39 | 0:19:41 | |
Peter Robinson has followed him on as the First Minister. | 0:19:41 | 0:19:43 | |
He needs to embrace the political institutions | 0:19:43 | 0:19:46 | |
and make them applicable, | 0:19:46 | 0:19:48 | |
because the institutions are fit for purpose, | 0:19:48 | 0:19:50 | |
and Peter doesn't work them in the way in which he needs to, | 0:19:50 | 0:19:53 | |
then he needs to ask himself, is he fit for purpose? | 0:19:53 | 0:19:55 | |
So what now? | 0:19:56 | 0:19:58 | |
With Stormont apparently gridlocked, there is talk on the horizon of | 0:19:58 | 0:20:02 | |
another new round of talks being led by the British and Irish governments. | 0:20:02 | 0:20:06 | |
Because, as the days grow shorter, so too does the likelihood | 0:20:06 | 0:20:10 | |
of the main parties brokering a deal on welfare change and a budget. | 0:20:10 | 0:20:15 | |
If Ian Paisley's blessed harvest is looking rather | 0:20:18 | 0:20:21 | |
full of weeds at the moment, in Scotland, | 0:20:21 | 0:20:23 | |
voters might be about to take a big scythe to the Union. | 0:20:23 | 0:20:26 | |
The Yes and No camps in the referendum are neck-and-neck | 0:20:26 | 0:20:30 | |
but, whichever way the vote goes, | 0:20:30 | 0:20:31 | |
the repercussions will be felt in Northern Ireland, | 0:20:31 | 0:20:34 | |
as Ciaran Tracey has been finding out. | 0:20:34 | 0:20:36 | |
A message writ large over West Belfast - | 0:20:42 | 0:20:45 | |
about a referendum taking place in Scotland. | 0:20:45 | 0:20:49 | |
But why does it matter here? | 0:20:50 | 0:20:52 | |
Scotland is about to decide | 0:20:52 | 0:20:54 | |
whether or not to walk away from the United Kingdom, | 0:20:54 | 0:20:57 | |
and whatever way the vote goes on Thursday, | 0:20:57 | 0:20:59 | |
the implications for the Union here are profound. | 0:20:59 | 0:21:03 | |
Many here are nervous. | 0:21:03 | 0:21:05 | |
These County Antrim Orangemen were up at the crack of dawn this weekend | 0:21:05 | 0:21:09 | |
for a flight to Edinburgh, joining a huge parade backing a no vote. | 0:21:09 | 0:21:13 | |
I think it's important from the point of view that we show | 0:21:13 | 0:21:16 | |
solidarity with the brethren in Scotland. I think it would have | 0:21:16 | 0:21:20 | |
big ramifications for us here in Northern Ireland | 0:21:20 | 0:21:24 | |
if Scotland voted yes. | 0:21:24 | 0:21:26 | |
I would see it as a massive threat to the Union. | 0:21:26 | 0:21:29 | |
Five or six years ago I was in Edinburgh for something | 0:21:29 | 0:21:32 | |
the same on the Act of Union. | 0:21:32 | 0:21:34 | |
And I don't think the government took it serious enough at that time. | 0:21:34 | 0:21:39 | |
And now, this is the result of it. | 0:21:39 | 0:21:42 | |
The momentum gathered by the Yes campaign in Scotland | 0:21:43 | 0:21:46 | |
has taken everyone by surprise. | 0:21:46 | 0:21:49 | |
And Northern Irish Unionists, ever alert to the threat from | 0:21:49 | 0:21:52 | |
Irish Republicanism, now find themselves | 0:21:52 | 0:21:54 | |
confronted by the possibility that a break-up | 0:21:54 | 0:21:57 | |
of the Union might come from their own kith and kin. | 0:21:57 | 0:22:01 | |
The unsettling and unnerving effect that a division in this | 0:22:01 | 0:22:04 | |
wonderful union would have, that it would get | 0:22:04 | 0:22:06 | |
the tails up of Irish Republicans in my part of the kingdom, | 0:22:06 | 0:22:10 | |
and would drive another wedge into the hearts and souls | 0:22:10 | 0:22:14 | |
of people in Ulster. | 0:22:14 | 0:22:16 | |
I think that one of the things that has happened is that | 0:22:16 | 0:22:18 | |
Northern Unionists have realised - very late in the day - | 0:22:18 | 0:22:22 | |
this could have more profound implications for us | 0:22:22 | 0:22:25 | |
than it actually has for Scotland. | 0:22:25 | 0:22:27 | |
And it has taken them a long time to catch up on that. | 0:22:27 | 0:22:29 | |
At their closest points, there's only something like | 0:22:31 | 0:22:34 | |
ten miles of water between Northern Ireland and Scotland. | 0:22:34 | 0:22:37 | |
But they feel so much closer, | 0:22:37 | 0:22:39 | |
and that's because of a shared history and a shared heritage. | 0:22:39 | 0:22:42 | |
But this vote calls into question that shared identity. | 0:22:42 | 0:22:45 | |
And, of course, that's particularly difficult for the Unionist community. | 0:22:45 | 0:22:49 | |
The short journey across the Irish Sea has long been made | 0:22:49 | 0:22:52 | |
by Orangemen, back and forth between the two countries for marches. | 0:22:52 | 0:22:56 | |
Last Saturday, the Orange Order's top brass from Northern Ireland | 0:22:57 | 0:23:00 | |
were also making the trip to what they believed could be | 0:23:00 | 0:23:04 | |
one of the most important marches they've ever attended - | 0:23:04 | 0:23:07 | |
opposing the vote for Scottish independence. | 0:23:07 | 0:23:09 | |
It would be like losing a member of the family in many ways. | 0:23:11 | 0:23:13 | |
And, yes, you would survive and it would continue, | 0:23:13 | 0:23:16 | |
but the United Kingdom wouldn't be the same again. | 0:23:16 | 0:23:19 | |
If it is a yes vote, surely it must be | 0:23:19 | 0:23:21 | |
the case that we are incrementally closer to a united Ireland? | 0:23:21 | 0:23:24 | |
Not necessarily. It will probably strengthen | 0:23:24 | 0:23:26 | |
the resolve within the Unionist people to work against that. | 0:23:26 | 0:23:29 | |
But other passengers on this boat | 0:23:29 | 0:23:30 | |
want a different future for their homeland. | 0:23:30 | 0:23:33 | |
I think you have to take the risk, | 0:23:33 | 0:23:34 | |
you have to take the jump in order to get the benefits. | 0:23:34 | 0:23:37 | |
There's just no other way, apart from staying the way we are. | 0:23:37 | 0:23:39 | |
It's clearly not working the way it is. | 0:23:39 | 0:23:41 | |
I genuinely believe it would be better off independent | 0:23:41 | 0:23:45 | |
than it would with devolution. | 0:23:45 | 0:23:48 | |
We have no option, we've got to vote yes. | 0:23:48 | 0:23:50 | |
We've been an independent country for 1,000 years, | 0:23:50 | 0:23:53 | |
except for the last 300. | 0:23:53 | 0:23:55 | |
It's our time. I hope the Scottish people back it. | 0:23:55 | 0:23:58 | |
The polls are tight. At this point in time, no-one can call it. | 0:23:58 | 0:24:02 | |
And even if the no vote wins through on Thursday, | 0:24:02 | 0:24:05 | |
this referendum has been such a close-run thing that the landscape | 0:24:05 | 0:24:09 | |
has undoubtedly changed forever. | 0:24:09 | 0:24:12 | |
Even if the Union is victorious in the referendum, | 0:24:12 | 0:24:15 | |
it will be such a narrow thing it will look much more fragile | 0:24:15 | 0:24:18 | |
than it has done hitherto. If the Union looks less durable, | 0:24:18 | 0:24:20 | |
then that's judged to be good for Sinn Fein. | 0:24:20 | 0:24:22 | |
Back in February, Gerry Adams set out the situation as he saw it. | 0:24:22 | 0:24:25 | |
It's now quite clear that the so-called United Kingdom | 0:24:27 | 0:24:30 | |
is held together by a thread. | 0:24:30 | 0:24:32 | |
And that thread can be unravelled, either as a result of referenda | 0:24:32 | 0:24:38 | |
in Scotland or elsewhere. | 0:24:38 | 0:24:40 | |
Not if 10,000 Orange supporters gathered in Edinburgh | 0:24:40 | 0:24:43 | |
last Saturday have anything to do with it. | 0:24:43 | 0:24:46 | |
The parade was organised as a massive show of loyalty to the Union. | 0:24:46 | 0:24:50 | |
And, in this field at least, | 0:24:50 | 0:24:51 | |
the Orange Order was preaching to the converted. | 0:24:51 | 0:24:55 | |
Our strength in numbers here today not only | 0:24:55 | 0:24:57 | |
demonstrates our commitment to the cause, but also our | 0:24:57 | 0:25:00 | |
grave concern at the imminent threat | 0:25:00 | 0:25:03 | |
to the Union that we all hold so dear. | 0:25:03 | 0:25:05 | |
Coming together to defend the Union should have been wee buns. | 0:25:05 | 0:25:08 | |
In reality, it hasn't been that simple because, even though they're | 0:25:08 | 0:25:13 | |
on the same side, the Better Together campaign - made up of the parties | 0:25:13 | 0:25:16 | |
seeking a no vote - doesn't want anything to do with the Orange Order. | 0:25:16 | 0:25:20 | |
And they've gone out of their way to distance themselves from the march. | 0:25:20 | 0:25:24 | |
I think they are concerned that the Orange Order is not | 0:25:24 | 0:25:27 | |
something that they want to be associated with. | 0:25:27 | 0:25:29 | |
They don't want to open the Pandora's box | 0:25:29 | 0:25:32 | |
of sectarianism, essentially, so they've tried to | 0:25:32 | 0:25:34 | |
distance themselves from it as much as they can. | 0:25:34 | 0:25:36 | |
David Clegg of The Daily Record, | 0:25:36 | 0:25:38 | |
Scotland's Labour-supporting paper, | 0:25:38 | 0:25:40 | |
says the Better Together campaign had bigger priorities | 0:25:40 | 0:25:43 | |
than appealing to Scotland's connections with Ulster. | 0:25:43 | 0:25:46 | |
If you ask them why have you not make more of an | 0:25:46 | 0:25:48 | |
emotional argument for the Union, they'll say it's not | 0:25:48 | 0:25:50 | |
because there's not an emotional argument to be made, | 0:25:50 | 0:25:52 | |
it's not because Scots don't believe in the Union | 0:25:52 | 0:25:55 | |
and feel those emotional binds, it's because we're | 0:25:55 | 0:25:57 | |
focusing relentlessly on undecided voters. | 0:25:57 | 0:25:59 | |
This emotional argument, | 0:25:59 | 0:26:00 | |
these ties, have not really featured that heavily. | 0:26:00 | 0:26:02 | |
Perhaps that is one of the reasons that alarm bells | 0:26:02 | 0:26:06 | |
over Scottish independence took so long | 0:26:06 | 0:26:07 | |
to ring in the ears of Unionists in Northern Ireland. | 0:26:07 | 0:26:11 | |
But now, they're ringing. Loud and clear. | 0:26:11 | 0:26:13 | |
Belfast loyalist Sam McCrory views this vote as | 0:26:15 | 0:26:18 | |
the greatest challenge the Union has ever faced. | 0:26:18 | 0:26:21 | |
I've done my fighting back home, | 0:26:21 | 0:26:22 | |
and I'm prepared to fight again back home, so I am. | 0:26:22 | 0:26:26 | |
But this is on a new level over here. | 0:26:26 | 0:26:30 | |
If it got to the stage where we weren't part | 0:26:30 | 0:26:32 | |
of the United Kingdom any more, I dread to think, | 0:26:32 | 0:26:35 | |
I can't even think what might occur for you and I, | 0:26:35 | 0:26:38 | |
for our kids and for our kids' kids. | 0:26:38 | 0:26:40 | |
So the Orangemen march, to maintain the Union that's now in jeopardy. | 0:26:42 | 0:26:46 | |
But for one Scottish voter at least, the link with Northern Ireland | 0:26:46 | 0:26:49 | |
itself simply doesn't feature in his decision-making. | 0:26:49 | 0:26:52 | |
I'm voting yes because I believe | 0:26:52 | 0:26:55 | |
it's what the people of Scotland want. | 0:26:55 | 0:26:58 | |
How do you think Northern Ireland would feel, | 0:26:58 | 0:27:00 | |
because there's a proud Ulster-Scots heritage there? | 0:27:00 | 0:27:03 | |
That's not our problem, is it? Is that being unfair? | 0:27:03 | 0:27:06 | |
It's not our problem, you know. | 0:27:06 | 0:27:09 | |
The outcome is unknown. | 0:27:09 | 0:27:11 | |
But what's certain is that the vote will have a long-term effect | 0:27:11 | 0:27:14 | |
on Northern Ireland, whatever the result. | 0:27:14 | 0:27:15 | |
No matter what happens this Thursday, Ulster Unionism | 0:27:17 | 0:27:21 | |
is going to fragment further. | 0:27:21 | 0:27:22 | |
And that has got great implications for the future of Stormont, | 0:27:22 | 0:27:26 | |
and for the relationships, the numerical and relative strength | 0:27:26 | 0:27:29 | |
of the main nationalist party and the main Unionist party. | 0:27:29 | 0:27:33 | |
I think if Scotland does leave the UK, | 0:27:33 | 0:27:35 | |
then, for Unionists, there will be a time for reflection. | 0:27:35 | 0:27:38 | |
I don't think Unionism will be unable to recover from it, but it | 0:27:38 | 0:27:41 | |
will be a blow to which they will have to respond in imaginative ways. | 0:27:41 | 0:27:45 | |
So this is the end of the parade today, | 0:27:45 | 0:27:47 | |
as it passes the Scottish Parliament behind me, which, | 0:27:47 | 0:27:50 | |
whatever the outcome of this referendum, is changing. | 0:27:50 | 0:27:53 | |
The question is, what will these changes mean for Northern Ireland? | 0:27:53 | 0:27:56 | |
And that's all from this edition of Spotlight. | 0:27:57 | 0:28:00 | |
Thank you for watching, good night. | 0:28:00 | 0:28:01 |