Brexit Spotlight


Brexit

In a special programme, Spotlight asks what the UK's decision to leave the European Union means for Northern Ireland and what will happen next.


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Transcript


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Good evening. Well, hasn't it been a dramatic few days,

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since the vote to leave the EU?

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The Tory and Labour parties are up to their necks

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in leadership struggles at Westminster,

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Nigel Farage is insulting MEPs in Brussels,

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the Dail has been recalled,

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Stormont has had an emergency debate.

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Over the next hour, though, we'll try and cast some light

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on what all of this means for Northern Ireland

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and its relationship with the Republic.

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We'll talk to the Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers,

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and the former First Minister, Lord Trimble.

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We'll hear a view from Scotland,

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where a second independence referendum is on the cards,

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and we'll learn the hopes and fears of a Polish family living here.

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The Brexit vote has thrown up myriad questions about

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the political and economic future of the United Kingdom.

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But in Northern Ireland, the answers are more complex,

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because, of course, of our EU neighbours in the Republic.

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Conor Spackman asks how it's all going down

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along the border and elsewhere.

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The border areas of South Down and South Armagh

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have been transformed since the end of the Troubles.

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The economy, once shrouded in gloom,

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now seeing sunnier times.

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Here, many believe it wouldn't have happened

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without the European Union.

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The EU has been a big part of it in two ways.

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The Single European Act, when it was implemented in 1992,

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the effect here was the removal of

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customs barriers, and that was a removal to

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the movement of goods, which liberated many businesses here.

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But it also was a stakeholder in financing infrastructure.

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This area was devastated economically by partition.

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That changed radically in the '90s and 2000s, and significant growth

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within the local economy happened from the mid-1990s onwards,

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but it was exponential in the 2000s.

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Across Europe, the EU prioritises help

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for peripheral regions which have been economically disadvantaged.

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The village of Forkhill was once cut in two by a massive Army base,

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but it's now derelict, and a prime site for development.

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Bernard Boyle has big plans to use it to boost the local economy,

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but he was counting on EU money.

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We had anticipated that we would get

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funding from Europe to build the business units,

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and that funding, we can't see that...

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There's a possibility that that's not going to happen now.

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You are not confident of getting it from Stormont

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or even from Westminster?

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Absolutely not, absolutely not, you know, we have already,

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over the years, have lobbied Stormont and Westminster

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as far as funding for sustainable projects

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in this area is concerned, and we have been singularly unsuccessful.

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For Bernard, it's not good enough

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to say that the UK as a whole voted to Leave.

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We see what the benefits of being in Europe are, but we have been

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dragged out of Europe kicking and screaming,

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whereas we wanted to remain.

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It may be seen as a democratic process,

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but it hasn't been democratic as far as we are concerned.

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In Downpatrick, Oliver Gilchrist has a cattle farm

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and trades across the border.

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Even with uncertainty over subsidies, he voted for Brexit,

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believing that Stormont and Westminster

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would deliver more for farmers than Brussels.

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I wasn't happy with the way the EU was telling us

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what to do and bringing in all the new regulations

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that we had to abide by.

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That's the way I would have seen it.

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And, and...

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Just too many inspections, farm inspections

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and too many people getting big money when farmers getting nothing.

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Who was getting the big money?

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Well, the supermarkets, to start with.

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The factories, and the thousands of bureaucrats

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that were working in Brussels...

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..that probably knew nothing about farming.

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So, in a nutshell, you have lot more faith

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in London, in Westminster, than you do in Brussels.

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100% more. I think you can't beat having a local government.

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Ballymena exporter

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and former chair of the Conservatives here, Irwin Armstrong,

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also backed Brexit. He says fears of uncertainty are exaggerated.

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Anybody in business knows the future is always very uncertain.

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You make investment plans,

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you don't know what's going to happen,

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so this is not much different from that.

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And he says complaints from places like South Armagh

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that the vote is not really democratic are worrying.

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I think we're in a very dangerous situation.

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We represent about 2-3% of the United Kingdom,

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and 2-3% cannot dictate to the rest of the country

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what's going to happen, you know,

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that is totally unconstitutional.

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Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom,

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and will have to operate as part of the United Kingdom.

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Driving along narrow country lanes at the border,

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often the only sign of going from north to south

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is the chopping and changing of road signs - not like the old days.

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Customs posts like this were

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once symbols of the border between north and south.

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But with Northern Ireland and the Republic

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both members of the European Union,

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with its rules on the free movements of goods, they became redundant.

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Now, though, with Northern Ireland now set to leave the European Union,

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the question is whether some sort of physical border,

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perhaps customs posts or maybe even passport controls,

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might have to be introduced.

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That question remains unresolved.

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Jonathan Powell, an architect of the Good Friday Agreement,

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says open borders were important

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in getting nationalists to buy into the peace process.

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The Good Friday Agreement was based on

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the idea that the border became less significant.

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You remember all those concrete blocks that

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blocked the lanes and byways of the border,

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they were removed as part of the agreement.

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We're going to end up with them back to stop people coming across,

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so they go to customs posts and immigration controls.

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It's going to really undermine part of the basis of the very agreement.

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Unionists in favour of Brexit have dismissed fears of a hard border.

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Theresa Villiers, though, the Secretary of State,

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has said that the Common Travel Area

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persisted throughout the war,

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throughout the Troubles. Why are you not reassured by that?

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Well, because she's completely missing the point.

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The Common Travel Area goes right back in history to

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the creation of Northern Ireland.

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The problem is that we've always had the same immigration policies,

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and if we stop free movement of people around the European Union,

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then you can't have an open border.

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Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin says a hard border would be

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a major step backwards.

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I think it could do a lot of damage to the island of Ireland.

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I think it could be exploited by forces who would use it

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to pursue their own militant agendas.

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And it is amazing how much we take for granted

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when all of this has disappeared, it is only their re-introduction

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will really bring it home to people,

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the enormity of the decision that has been taken.

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So, therefore, I think it would be damaging.

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Jonathan Powell believes that the possible reimposition

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of a hard border may not be the only major consequence of Brexit.

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I think it is really rather a serious threat

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to the United Kingdom and its existence.

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And it's slightly paradoxical that these people

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who campaigned for Brexit, who are supposedly champions

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of the United Kingdom have led to its possible demise.

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It seems almost certain, after what Nicola Sturgeon said,

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that we're going to end up with a referendum in Scotland.

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It seems extremely likely

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that referendum will go for independence in Scotland.

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But Irwin Armstrong doesn't believe

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the north-south arrangements will be affected,

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or that Scotland will become independent.

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There would be no reason for any change in the way we operate.

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I would encourage Nicola Sturgeon

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to have another referendum if she actually wants one.

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She knows she won't win it, the people know she won't win it,

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and the people don't want it.

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While Brexiteers stress

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that little needs to change,

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in South Armagh there's a feeling that things have already changed,

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and new divides have opened up.

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I think the challenge for those who proposed Brexit

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actually is the map of how people voted Remain and Leave.

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Because three-quarters of Belfast

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voted to remain.

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All but County Antrim and part of North Armagh,

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North Down voted to remain,

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and, therefore, there is a geopolitical dimension to this.

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You know, Ulster, so often talked about out and so often used

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as a moniker to describe Northern Ireland,

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it shrank from nine counties to six.

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Is it now to shrink to one county?

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Be careful what you wish for.

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David Cameron said the referendum would settle

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the debate over the European Union once and for all.

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In fact, the outcome has been the opposite.

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It's also prompted a whole series

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of new questions about the economy, identity

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and the future of another union,

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the United Kingdom itself.

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Conor Spackman reporting.

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The Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, was an outspoken

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Leave campaigner. She may be in line for a promotion

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when the Tories sort themselves out at the end of the summer.

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I asked her if, amid all the uncertainty, she had a clear vision

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of a post-Brexit Northern Ireland economy.

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I think there are great opportunities

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for Northern Ireland after this Brexit vote.

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Not only will we have a good trade deal

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with the European Union, but we will be able to

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negotiate trade deals with many countries around the world,

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opening up real opportunities for Northern Ireland exports.

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You don't know, of course, what deal you will have

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with the European Union.

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Well, the fact is that the European Union sell more to us

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than we do to them, so it is in their interests

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as well as ours to have a good deal,

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and they have what is effectively a free-trade zone

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between Iceland and the Russian border.

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We are going to be part of that, we are going to get a good deal.

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Northern Ireland will continue to be a fantastic place to invest in,

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including for those that want to export to the rest of Europe.

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Again, you don't know that, and some people in Europe are saying

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they want to make an example of the UK

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so that others won't be tempted to follow suit.

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So they may not have the already-in-place tariffs,

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there may be higher tariffs,

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you just don't know. That's the point, isn't it?

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Trade negotiations are a hard-headed thing to carry out,

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and, for example, we have a significant deficit in cars.

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The rest of the EU sell far more cars to us

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than we do to them. It is not in the interests of

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German car manufacturers to have tariffs going up.

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They don't set the tariffs, Europe sets the tariffs.

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Yes, but the German government certainly listens

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to their car manufacturers, because they know their economy

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is dependent on exports.

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We are the EU's biggest export market,

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we are the fifth biggest economy in the world.

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It is in both our interests,

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both the remaining members of the EU and the UK,

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to have a good trade deal, to continue to trade

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and cooperate on matters of mutual interest.

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So much of Northern Ireland's business goes to the Republic,

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and a significant proportion of

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the Republic's business comes from Northern Ireland.

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That will be damaged by the hard border,

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which everyone now says will emerge in some form from this Brexit.

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But they're not saying that.

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Both the UK Government and the Irish government want to have

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an open border. We are already working on that.

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They want to have but it's decided by Europe!

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Ireland is part of the EU. It will have to

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abide by what the EU dictates.

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The Common Travel Area has been a part of this island for

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nearly 100 years. It survived a civil war, a World War

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and 30 years of The Troubles. It can survive a Brexit vote.

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It's in the interests of both the UK and Ireland to keep

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-that border open.

-It was dependent on there being

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common laws and regulations between Ireland and Great Britain.

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That is no longer the case. The EU rules supreme.

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The Common Travel Area, there are risks already associated with having

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the Common Travel Area and an open land border

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and we manage them perfectly well today.

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We can continue to do that after we leave the European Union.

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It's perfectly possible to do that,

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with common sense on both sides, and again, it's in the interests

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of the Republic of Ireland to maintain that open border.

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So, I don't see that the EU is going to

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put barriers in the way of one of their own member states

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from continuing to trade with the UK.

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For the same reason as it may limit

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trade deals, because it wants to set some kind of an example.

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Ireland has already said, many of its politicians are saying,

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when it comes to it, Great Britain are great friends, of course this is

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a common land border, but we must put what the EU wants first.

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We must show that we are good Europeans before

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we delve into or try to develop this friendship, or continue this

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friendship with Great Britain.

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In the conversations I've had directly with Minister Flanagan,

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there is a strong will to maintain an open border

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and that is the clear position that I have been told

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in relation to the approach. It's in all our interests.

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There must be immigration and customs controls. That's a basic.

0:48:020:48:05

The whole argument about immigration

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on the Leave campaign's side dictates

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that there be some kind of immigration control at the border.

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You don't have to use physical border checks

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to deal with immigration issues.

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Clearly, Irish citizens will continue to enjoy

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all the rights that they currently have today.

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They are entirely independent of free movement.

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I think it's far-fetched to think

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that somehow there will be thousands of

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non-Irish EU citizens suddenly flooding across the border

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if we were to change free movement rules,

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and if that does happen and we have changed free movement rules,

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and they come without the appropriate permissions,

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they won't be allowed to work, they won't be able to open

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a bank account, they won't be able to rent property

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and ultimately, in serious cases, they could be deported.

0:48:480:48:51

So, you can control illegal migration through means

0:48:510:48:54

which don't require physical checks at a border.

0:48:540:48:57

The peace process, there are fears that a Brexit damages

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the peace process. Europe was so much part of

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the Good Friday Agreement, not least in terms of equality laws

0:49:020:49:06

and the Human Rights Convention.

0:49:060:49:09

To what extent has that been damaged by this vote?

0:49:090:49:12

I don't believe it has at all. I think support for

0:49:120:49:14

the political settlement and the principle of

0:49:140:49:16

democracy and consent is rock-solid in Northern Ireland.

0:49:160:49:19

The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland

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believe that their future should only be

0:49:230:49:25

determined by democracy and consent

0:49:250:49:27

and there is no suggestion that that resolute determination

0:49:270:49:31

is going to be changed in any way by a Brexit vote.

0:49:310:49:33

A lot of people feel though that the very basis

0:49:330:49:37

of the agreement has now been changed.

0:49:370:49:39

There... It is entirely...

0:49:390:49:41

A Brexit vote is entirely consistent with the Belfast agreement,

0:49:410:49:45

there is nothing to say that the UK can't vote to leave

0:49:450:49:48

the European Union. The reality is,

0:49:480:49:50

the peace settlement, the political settlement enjoys huge support.

0:49:500:49:54

Politics are very stable in Northern Ireland

0:49:540:49:57

in comparison to many places.

0:49:570:49:59

Do you think there are many Nationalists who were becoming perhaps more content

0:49:590:50:02

in Northern Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement

0:50:020:50:05

will now be thinking, you know what, we need to get a united Ireland.

0:50:050:50:08

I don't see there is any evidence for that...

0:50:080:50:11

Apart from the hundreds of people applying for Irish passports in the last few days.

0:50:110:50:15

The key concerns people have is they want to make sure that

0:50:150:50:17

we retain our open border and retain all our co-operation and

0:50:170:50:22

our trade with the Republic of Ireland. Absolutely, that's

0:50:220:50:24

exactly what we want to do. And that's what we're going to do.

0:50:240:50:27

There's every sign that Scotland's going to go for a second referendum.

0:50:270:50:30

If this Brexit leads to the break-up of the United Kingdom,

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is it a price worth paying?

0:50:330:50:35

I don't believe the United Kingdom is going to break up.

0:50:350:50:38

The Scottish people voted by a clear margin to stay

0:50:380:50:42

-in the United Kingdom.

-Unanimously, actually.

0:50:420:50:45

They voted by 10% to stay in the United Kingdom.

0:50:450:50:49

Every area voted to stay in.

0:50:490:50:52

I'm talking about the Scottish separation referendum.

0:50:520:50:58

That referendum should be respected in Scotland.

0:50:580:51:02

They voted in favour of staying within the United Kingdom

0:51:020:51:05

and both sides agreed to respect that referendum

0:51:050:51:09

and when it took place the Scots knew perfectly well there was a forthcoming referendum

0:51:090:51:14

in which the United Kingdom would vote as a country on its membership of the EU.

0:51:140:51:18

They have the right to stage another referendum and

0:51:180:51:20

Nicola Sturgeon says she's going to enact the legislation.

0:51:200:51:24

But the question around Scottish separation has been settled by

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a clear referendum. Both sides in the Edinburgh agreement

0:51:280:51:31

agree to respect that there is no reason to reopen the question.

0:51:310:51:35

The case for Scotland remaining in the UK is just as strong

0:51:350:51:37

as it was in 2014 when the vote took place.

0:51:370:51:41

-Secretary, thank you very much indeed.

-Thank you.

0:51:410:51:43

Theresa Villiers. The Irish government was recalled

0:51:450:51:48

this week to analyse the Brexit fallout.

0:51:480:51:50

The Irish European affairs Minister, Dara Murphy, has been sounding out

0:51:500:51:53

other member states in Brussels today.

0:51:530:51:55

I asked him if he'd found anyone ready to make allowances for what

0:51:550:51:58

the Taoiseach called the unique relationships on these islands?

0:51:580:52:03

I think there has been an awareness right throughout

0:52:030:52:06

the campaign. I suppose that while the Republic of Ireland

0:52:060:52:10

and Northern Ireland will of course have issues

0:52:100:52:13

to be dealt with in the political and in the economic,

0:52:130:52:16

we have other areas of... where we share issues.

0:52:160:52:22

Clearly the fact that we have had

0:52:220:52:23

a Common Travel Area since the 1920s, the UK and

0:52:230:52:27

the Republic joined in 1973, the European Union together,

0:52:270:52:30

so we have never been in a position

0:52:300:52:33

where one part, the Republic of Ireland is

0:52:330:52:36

out and the UK...is in, or in this case vice versa.

0:52:360:52:40

So, between that and the Common Travel Area

0:52:400:52:43

and I suppose the very deep links that there are between both Irelands

0:52:430:52:49

really I suppose, that is well understood,

0:52:490:52:52

and while we will be looking, of course, to negotiate

0:52:520:52:55

from the Irish Republic's point of view

0:52:550:52:58

as one of 27, we will be making the case

0:52:580:53:01

that for many reasons the issues that are specific

0:53:010:53:04

to the Republic of Ireland and indeed Northern Ireland

0:53:040:53:07

and the rest of Great Britain are unique and will need

0:53:070:53:10

to be treated in that fashion as unique.

0:53:100:53:13

You have a delicate balancing act to do

0:53:130:53:15

because you have to show yourselves to be good Europeans

0:53:150:53:19

and also you have to protect the interests of

0:53:190:53:22

your vital trade, the biggest trading partner,

0:53:220:53:25

the United Kingdom.

0:53:250:53:26

Yes, and I don't see that as a delicate balance.

0:53:280:53:32

I think it's a fairly obvious ambition and I think it's a fair and reasonable ambition.

0:53:320:53:37

We are good Europeans. We are of the view

0:53:370:53:41

most of the political parties in the South would be of the view

0:53:410:53:45

that the Republic's future does rest within the European Union.

0:53:450:53:50

Many parties, of course, feel that the European Union needs

0:53:500:53:53

to be improved, and I would agree with that part myself,

0:53:530:53:56

but better to improve it from the inside rather than from the outside.

0:53:560:54:00

But we don't see actually a contradiction or a conflict between

0:54:000:54:05

ensuring that trade and travel between these islands

0:54:050:54:08

remains as free and easy as possible for everybody

0:54:080:54:13

and our ambition to stay as a very strong member

0:54:130:54:16

of the European Union, in fact, the contrary is the case.

0:54:160:54:20

Will you argue against trade tariffs?

0:54:200:54:22

The answer to that is yes, we will be arguing to keep anything

0:54:220:54:27

that reduces trade between the UK and Ireland

0:54:270:54:30

and the European Union and the UK rather to an absolute minimum.

0:54:300:54:35

That is not in the interests, we believe, of anybody in Europe,

0:54:350:54:39

whether inside the EU or out.

0:54:390:54:41

If you are outside it, you pay tariffs, and the UK will

0:54:410:54:46

-be outside it?

-Yes, and I said that we need to

0:54:460:54:50

keep them to a minimum. It is far, far too early

0:54:500:54:53

now to get into the detail of what will be

0:54:530:54:56

the second part of this process, that is what

0:54:560:54:58

will be the new relationship between the UK and the EU.

0:54:580:55:03

First of all, of course, the process of how and when

0:55:030:55:08

the UK will leave, and I think it is welcome

0:55:080:55:11

that the Government in the UK has been given time now.

0:55:110:55:15

The sense of the meeting tonight is that it would be clearly necessary

0:55:150:55:21

that there will have to be a new Prime Minister,

0:55:210:55:23

a new government in place in London,

0:55:230:55:26

that can negotiate with the other 27 member states.

0:55:260:55:30

And what comes from those negotiations

0:55:300:55:32

will take time to see the detail of them.

0:55:320:55:35

Gerry Adams says the Irish government must deal

0:55:350:55:37

with this on an all-Ireland basis.

0:55:370:55:39

Will you feel any pressure, any requirement to speak out

0:55:390:55:44

for those nationalists in Northern Ireland

0:55:440:55:46

who voted to remain in the EU and who now feel

0:55:460:55:48

-that their voice has been silenced?

-It is clear

0:55:480:55:51

that there will be many voices supporting the issues

0:55:510:55:54

that will affect the people of Northern Ireland,

0:55:540:55:57

the Republic of Ireland and the UK.

0:55:570:55:59

I don't actually see that those voices will need

0:55:590:56:02

to be voices that will contradict each other

0:56:020:56:05

and certainly in any bilateral discussions we have had,

0:56:050:56:08

and in fact the Taoiseach has very much welcomed

0:56:080:56:12

David Cameron's statement that

0:56:120:56:14

Northern Ireland would have to have a special place

0:56:140:56:17

within these negotiations. So, I don't see it

0:56:170:56:20

that the Republic will be arguing for Northern Ireland

0:56:200:56:23

and someone else will be arguing against it.

0:56:230:56:25

In fact, I think there is a very good awareness of the journey we've

0:56:250:56:30

travelled in these islands and the unique position that we have.

0:56:300:56:32

Dara Murphy.

0:56:320:56:34

We were talking earlier about Scotland where the SNP say

0:56:340:56:36

they're gearing up for a second referendum on independence.

0:56:360:56:39

Of course, the last one was defeated by a significant margin

0:56:390:56:43

but could the Brexit shift opinion?

0:56:430:56:45

Darran Marshall's been finding out.

0:56:450:56:47

For Scotland, the campaign continues

0:56:530:56:56

and the dream shall never die.

0:56:560:56:58

Alex Salmond's resignation speech. Scotland had

0:57:000:57:03

rejected his lifetime ambition of independence.

0:57:030:57:06

Should Scotland be an independent country?

0:57:070:57:10

No.

0:57:110:57:13

CHEERING

0:57:130:57:15

It appeared dreams of independence had been checked -

0:57:150:57:18

the union secured.

0:57:180:57:19

And even the politician, dubbed by the Daily Mail

0:57:230:57:26

"the most dangerous woman in Britain", Nicola Sturgeon,

0:57:260:57:29

seemed unwilling to commit to a new referendum.

0:57:290:57:32

Overnight, everything changed.

0:57:340:57:36

Let June 23rd go down in our history as our independence day.

0:57:360:57:42

Lisburn man, David Clegg, is the political editor

0:57:440:57:47

of Scotland's Daily Record,

0:57:470:57:49

traditionally viewed as a Unionist paper.

0:57:490:57:52

He believes Britain's decision to exit Europe

0:57:520:57:55

could lead to Scotland quitting the UK.

0:57:550:57:57

We are only two years away from the independence referendum,

0:57:580:58:01

which returned a decisive "no" result,

0:58:010:58:03

but a lot of that was predicated on Scotland being

0:58:030:58:07

a member of the European Union through its membership of the UK,

0:58:070:58:10

so I think a lot of people are reconsidering their position.

0:58:100:58:13

Do you think the UK will now break up?

0:58:150:58:17

Um, with a bit of luck.

0:58:170:58:19

-Yes.

-I hope so.

-I hope so,

0:58:190:58:22

Scotland needs independence.

0:58:220:58:25

On the afternoon we filmed on this Glasgow high street,

0:58:250:58:28

most believe Scottish independence inevitable and the Union doomed.

0:58:280:58:32

Well, hopefully Scotland will go its own way.

0:58:320:58:35

-Do you think the UK will break up?

-No, not at all.

0:58:350:58:38

We'll all stay together. Why not? We love Scotland, we love Britain.

0:58:380:58:42

Independence is going to come now, yeah.

0:58:420:58:45

I think the UK will break up now.

0:58:450:58:47

Humza Yousaf, campaign director for the SNP in the referendum,

0:58:470:58:51

credits the successful Remain campaign north of the border

0:58:510:58:55

with its positive view of Europe,

0:58:550:58:57

something he feels the campaign elsewhere failed to advocate.

0:58:570:59:01

I think the immigration debate

0:59:010:59:03

and the toxicity of that debate took grip in many areas of the country.

0:59:030:59:08

I think if for 30 years successive UK governments have told you

0:59:080:59:12

that it is the immigrants' fault then, eventually,

0:59:120:59:15

the chickens frankly come home to roost.

0:59:150:59:18

Last Friday, in front of the saltire and the European flag,

0:59:180:59:21

Nicola Sturgeon revealed a second independence referendum

0:59:210:59:25

was an option she was considering.

0:59:250:59:27

Scotland faces the prospect of being taken

0:59:270:59:31

out of the EU against our will.

0:59:310:59:34

I regard that as democratically unacceptable.

0:59:340:59:38

And it is, therefore, a statement of the obvious that the option

0:59:380:59:42

of a second referendum must be on the table.

0:59:420:59:45

If you asked me a month ago, would there be another

0:59:470:59:50

independence referendum in the next few years? I would have said no.

0:59:500:59:53

This has certainly changed the game entirely.

0:59:530:59:57

This time, Scottish nationalists feel that the decision

0:59:571:00:00

on a second referendum has been forced

1:00:001:00:02

by those who voted to leave Europe.

1:00:021:00:05

Anybody with even a little bit of foresight would have been able

1:00:061:00:10

to see that this scenario that has played itself out,

1:00:101:00:12

of Scotland wanting to stay within the European Union

1:00:121:00:15

and the rest of the UK or parts of it wanting to leave,

1:00:151:00:18

could easily have played out.

1:00:181:00:20

Those pro-union Brexiters knew fine well that this could be

1:00:201:00:23

a situation that arose.

1:00:231:00:25

The Tory leader in Scotland campaigned for a Remain vote.

1:00:271:00:31

Despite the overall result of the referendum,

1:00:311:00:33

she doesn't believe the end of the United Kingdom is inevitable.

1:00:331:00:37

We do not address the challenges of leaving the European Union

1:00:371:00:40

by leaving our own union of nations,

1:00:401:00:43

our biggest market and our closest friends.

1:00:431:00:45

David Clegg believes the United Kingdom has been sacrificed

1:00:451:00:49

by English voters.

1:00:491:00:50

England seems to be turning inwards towards itself.

1:00:521:00:55

I think that was an expression of English nationalism

1:00:551:00:58

that was part of the reasons for the Leave result.

1:00:581:01:00

The voters in England had been warned not only that a Leave vote

1:01:021:01:05

would likely lead to renewed calls for Scottish independence

1:01:051:01:09

but also lead to a renewed push for a united Ireland from Sinn Fein.

1:01:091:01:14

They have ignored both of those elements whenever they've been

1:01:141:01:17

making their decision and have voted Leave regardless.

1:01:171:01:20

The referendum was a UK-wide poll with one overall decision

1:01:201:01:24

taken by the electorate, but Humza Yousaf believes many Scots value

1:01:241:01:27

the union with Europe over that with England.

1:01:271:01:30

The UK that people in Scotland voted to remain a part of

1:01:311:01:35

in September 2014, 55% of our population who chose to remain

1:01:351:01:39

in that UK - that UK doesn't exist anymore.

1:01:391:01:42

That UK has ceased to exist.

1:01:421:01:44

We were promised in the run-up to that Scottish Independence

1:01:451:01:48

referendum that the only way to protect Scotland's place

1:01:481:01:52

in the European Union was to vote to remain in the United Kingdom.

1:01:521:01:55

That has proven to be the biggest lie that has been told

1:01:551:01:58

in modern British political history.

1:01:581:02:00

Hundreds, if not thousands of people, now messaging me personally

1:02:021:02:05

in the last week alone, since the result,

1:02:051:02:07

to say that they want to change their vote.

1:02:071:02:09

They were staunch unionists, staunch No supporters,

1:02:091:02:12

and never would they have thought they would have switched their vote.

1:02:121:02:16

But now, because of what's happened, they would rather be independent

1:02:161:02:19

in Europe than be part of the United Kingdom outside of Europe.

1:02:191:02:23

The DUP's Christopher Stalford campaigned for a Leave vote

1:02:241:02:28

in the referendum.

1:02:281:02:29

He isn't convinced that the Scottish Government will call

1:02:291:02:32

a fresh independence poll.

1:02:321:02:33

I believe to a large extent the SNP are bluffing,

1:02:351:02:38

in terms of the sabre rattling that we have seen

1:02:381:02:41

coming from Nicola Sturgeon and others,

1:02:411:02:43

and if you look at her language very carefully,

1:02:431:02:46

what she has been saying is a referendum is on the table

1:02:461:02:49

or highly likely. She hasn't come straight out and called for one,

1:02:491:02:54

and I suspect the reason for that is she knows that if she were to come straight out

1:02:541:02:59

and call for one, there would be a very negative reaction

1:02:591:03:02

amongst the Scottish electorate.

1:03:021:03:04

The view from and about Scotland.

1:03:041:03:07

The former First Minister David Trimble was a supporter

1:03:071:03:11

of the Leave campaign. I asked him for his assessment

1:03:111:03:13

of Northern Ireland's future outside the EU.

1:03:131:03:16

The New Yorker magazine characterises the vote for Brexit

1:03:171:03:21

as a John Cleese figure stepping off the edge of a cliff.

1:03:211:03:26

Is Northern Ireland stepping off the edge of a cliff into the unknown?

1:03:261:03:30

I think there will be some volatility in the market,

1:03:301:03:33

there already has been.

1:03:331:03:35

I am sure that will steady down quite soon.

1:03:351:03:38

6-12 months from now, people will see that this is a good thing.

1:03:381:03:42

A good thing in what way for Northern Ireland,

1:03:421:03:45

which might end up, according to some commentators,

1:03:451:03:48

cut off from the Republic, its main trade partner,

1:03:481:03:51

and also perhaps in a couple of years' time, cut off from Scotland,

1:03:511:03:55

if it becomes independent.

1:03:551:03:56

There's a lot of exaggeration about this

1:03:561:03:59

and particularly about the single market.

1:03:591:04:01

It's best to be quite clear about this.

1:04:011:04:04

There will be, as a result of our leaving the European Union,

1:04:041:04:08

the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be

1:04:081:04:11

the European Union's border,

1:04:111:04:13

but that doesn't mean the South is cut off.

1:04:131:04:15

It does mean there will be tariffs on the border.

1:04:151:04:20

People keep talking about being cut off from the single market.

1:04:201:04:23

There's 150 countries in the world that are not part

1:04:231:04:27

of the European Union,

1:04:271:04:28

and none of them are cut off from the single market.

1:04:281:04:32

The consequence of not being part of the European Union

1:04:321:04:35

is that they have to pay the tariffs, but the tariffs are low.

1:04:351:04:38

Is Europe going to increase the tariffs? Not if they have any sense.

1:04:381:04:42

I know there are some people in the European Commission...

1:04:421:04:45

There is talk of punishing.

1:04:451:04:47

That is precisely what I was going to say.

1:04:471:04:50

Some people in the European Union, displaying their usual

1:04:501:04:53

level of judgment, by saying they are going to punish,

1:04:531:04:56

but you will notice what Angela Merkel says,

1:04:561:04:59

that it's time for them to behave in a grown-up way.

1:04:591:05:02

I think you'll find that our friends in Dublin will also be acting

1:05:021:05:07

in a grown-up way and be saying to Europe that what you should be doing

1:05:071:05:12

in this case is not increase your tariffs

1:05:121:05:14

but reduce your tariffs to increase trade.

1:05:141:05:16

But there's no indication that Ireland will be able to plead

1:05:161:05:21

a special relationship because of the land border.

1:05:211:05:24

I am not suggesting that they should.

1:05:241:05:27

In the long run, and by that I mean in the next couple of years,

1:05:271:05:30

Ireland will have a decision to take about its future relationships

1:05:301:05:35

and whether Europe is more important to it than the British market.

1:05:351:05:41

They followed us into the European Common Market, as it was.

1:05:411:05:48

Followed us, went in on the same day, because they knew they had

1:05:481:05:51

to go in with us so as not to find themselves disadvantaged.

1:05:511:05:56

But there is not even an argument in the Republic

1:05:561:06:00

about whether or not they should remain...

1:06:001:06:02

Wait and see.

1:06:021:06:05

Discussions are already, I think, taking place in government corridors

1:06:051:06:10

and we'll see what happens.

1:06:101:06:12

I am quite sure that our friends in Dublin will be thinking carefully

1:06:121:06:17

and there's also a wider question about the future

1:06:171:06:20

of the European Union, but that is another matter.

1:06:201:06:22

What about the concept of a hard border now between North and South?

1:06:221:06:28

It's pretty much an inevitability according to some commentators.

1:06:281:06:32

There will be identity checks, there will be customs checks,

1:06:321:06:36

which some people say, and Jonathan Powell,

1:06:361:06:39

the right-hand man of Tony Blair, says there will be a hard border

1:06:391:06:44

which will create difficulties in the relationship between North and South.

1:06:441:06:48

Jonathan should calm down

1:06:481:06:49

and have a look at the history of the matter from 1920 to 1972.

1:06:491:06:55

You might say there was a hard border - it wasn't very hard.

1:06:551:07:00

There is no desire that I know of, in either London or Dublin,

1:07:001:07:03

to change the common travel area.

1:07:031:07:06

The question is - what does Brussels do?

1:07:061:07:09

Here again, I think our friends in Dublin have to be reminding

1:07:091:07:13

the people in Brussels of the existence of a common travel area.

1:07:131:07:18

What about immigration?

1:07:181:07:21

Part of the Brexit argument was to control

1:07:211:07:25

the borders of the United Kingdom.

1:07:251:07:28

Will there be, at this hard border between North and South,

1:07:281:07:32

stricter immigration controls?

1:07:321:07:35

That's where you have some practical problems,

1:07:351:07:39

just as we have huge practical problems with the other borders

1:07:391:07:43

of the United Kingdom.

1:07:431:07:45

We only have effective controls at the major points of entry,

1:07:451:07:50

but you've got to cast your mind back to what things were like before 1972,

1:07:501:07:55

and I think some people just are exaggerating this,

1:07:551:07:58

and exaggerating this for a purpose.

1:07:581:08:01

They no longer have that purpose,

1:08:011:08:03

so you might find that commentary begins to calm down.

1:08:031:08:06

Scotland, the indications are that the Scottish Parliament

1:08:071:08:11

is going to enact legislation to have a second referendum on independence.

1:08:111:08:16

If Scotland becomes independent,

1:08:161:08:18

have we then effectively, in Northern Ireland,

1:08:181:08:21

become cut off from the Republic and from Scotland?

1:08:211:08:24

There's a lot of noise going on at the moment

1:08:241:08:28

and quite a lot of posturing.

1:08:281:08:30

The fact of the matter is that the Scottish people do not want another referendum -

1:08:301:08:37

we know that from opinion polls taken place after the last referendum.

1:08:371:08:41

That referendum was very scarring.

1:08:411:08:45

It was a hugely unpleasant experience

1:08:451:08:47

and there is no stomach for doing it again.

1:08:471:08:50

Whatever the leadership of the SNP may say,

1:08:501:08:53

they know that the economic proposals they put to the Scottish people in that referendum

1:08:531:08:59

have been blown out of the water completely by the changes

1:08:591:09:02

that have taken place, so what we are getting at the moment,

1:09:021:09:06

and this is my judgment on the matter, is that the leadership

1:09:061:09:09

of the SNP are talking this up

1:09:091:09:11

because they had talked it up beforehand, but they are actually

1:09:111:09:14

trying to construct processes that will give them excuses for inaction.

1:09:141:09:18

Lord Trimble. Let's talk to the current batch of decision takers

1:09:201:09:23

at Stormont and indeed at Westminster.

1:09:231:09:25

Ian Paisley is there for us. Ian Paisley, the Brexiteers are already

1:09:251:09:29

being accused of resiling from previous positions,

1:09:291:09:33

of doing U-turns, not going to give money we get back from Europe

1:09:331:09:38

to the NHS any more. Why should we believe that anyone

1:09:381:09:41

in Northern Ireland will benefit in terms of the money

1:09:411:09:44

that would have gone to the farmers, for example?

1:09:441:09:46

How can we be sure that any benefits will accrue to the people

1:09:461:09:49

of Northern Ireland as a result of this vote?

1:09:491:09:52

Good evening and thank you for having me on your programme.

1:09:521:09:54

I think there's a couple of key points that have to be made

1:09:541:09:58

in order to address that, and address that fairly.

1:09:581:10:01

In Northern Ireland we should be used to this.

1:10:011:10:03

We are now entering into a very important

1:10:031:10:06

and intensive phase of negotiations immediately after the most important

1:10:061:10:10

and revolutionary referendum that we've had in the United Kingdom.

1:10:101:10:17

And I think the revolution we're now into will open this negotiation

1:10:171:10:22

and allow us to claim back that money and to negotiate those deals.

1:10:221:10:27

But I would pose this question.

1:10:271:10:29

After 40 years, more than 40 years, of being a member of this

1:10:291:10:33

great panacea, this wonderful club,

1:10:331:10:36

of having all of the great experts of the world,

1:10:361:10:40

from presidents to bank chiefs, the elites,

1:10:401:10:43

telling the ordinary people of the United Kingdom

1:10:431:10:46

you'd better stick with this club,

1:10:461:10:48

the vast majority of the people in the United Kingdom,

1:10:481:10:51

of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, said, "We're leaving.

1:10:511:10:54

"We don't like this. It's not working."

1:10:541:10:56

I'm not sure you've answered the question as to whether or not

1:10:561:10:59

any money is going to come here.

1:10:591:11:00

The point is that... People are missing the key point here.

1:11:001:11:03

This is a revolution. The public have rejected Europe

1:11:031:11:09

and that means that everything is on the table and we can start to now

1:11:091:11:12

open up the option for negotiating how our money is better spent.

1:11:121:11:17

That means we have a blank page and that's a positive thing.

1:11:171:11:21

-Claire Hanna, are you reassured?

-No, I'm not.

1:11:211:11:23

We have been asking for months what the plan is post-Brexit.

1:11:231:11:27

There are clearly wasn't one and clearly we can't trust

1:11:271:11:29

the same people who have spoofed

1:11:291:11:31

on things like money for the NHS and on immigration,

1:11:311:11:34

and have been proven wrong already on all those things.

1:11:341:11:37

But what is clear is that Northern Ireland voted to stay

1:11:371:11:40

and we will be seeking to represent that, and we'll be using

1:11:401:11:43

whatever democratic method we can do to do that.

1:11:431:11:46

-We're not go to simply...

-The point is there aren't any.

1:11:461:11:49

There are, actually. There's a very long road to travel

1:11:491:11:51

before any Brexit is triggered.

1:11:511:11:55

There's no plan in London and we're not just going to allow

1:11:551:11:58

-Northern Ireland to wash along in its wake.

-That's not true.

1:11:581:12:01

You have to remember, we currently have probably the most

1:12:011:12:04

imaginative constitutional settlement in the world,

1:12:041:12:07

in that people could here can be British or Irish or both,

1:12:071:12:10

and that took creativity and solutions

1:12:101:12:12

and bringing a lot of people together for the ideas.

1:12:121:12:15

And we think there's a lot on the table, there are models out there.

1:12:151:12:18

Hold on, Ian Paisley, I will come back to you.

1:12:181:12:20

You'll have a perfectly good opportunity to reply.

1:12:201:12:23

John O'Dowd, all this talk about

1:12:231:12:25

we can delay it, we can do this... You can't.

1:12:251:12:28

Westminster will decide if and when

1:12:281:12:31

the United Kingdom pulls out of Europe.

1:12:311:12:33

This hasn't been a popular revolution,

1:12:331:12:36

as has been portrayed by Ian Paisley Jr.

1:12:361:12:38

It hasn't been a revolution in the style of the Tooting Popular Front.

1:12:381:12:42

It has been a fallout among Eton toffs, which has dragged

1:12:421:12:46

ordinary men and women across these islands into a dispute

1:12:461:12:48

which was not of their making, but they will pay the consequences.

1:12:481:12:52

You said it's the biggest social and economic shock since Partition.

1:12:521:12:55

-It is.

-It's a kind of a revolution, isn't it?

1:12:551:12:57

Well, there's been many revolutions down through history,

1:12:571:13:00

not all of them have been good revolutions.

1:13:001:13:01

Sometimes you need a counter-revolution

1:13:011:13:04

or a new revolution to bring the reality of the situation into focus.

1:13:041:13:07

The most worrying video which you have shown us tonight

1:13:071:13:11

was Theresa Villiers.

1:13:111:13:12

Theresa Villiers clearly doesn't have a clue

1:13:121:13:15

about the economic make-up of this island,

1:13:151:13:17

the social or cultural make-up of this island

1:13:171:13:20

and the history of this island.

1:13:201:13:22

And the best thing Theresa Villiers can do ahead of any negotiations

1:13:221:13:26

is go home.

1:13:261:13:27

I don't suspect the next one will be any better,

1:13:271:13:30

but after watching that tonight, Theresa Villiers needs to go home

1:13:301:13:34

and allow those who understand the make-up of this island

1:13:341:13:36

to get on with the negotiation because there will be a deal,

1:13:361:13:39

I've no doubt there will be a deal.

1:13:391:13:41

But what is a good deal to me

1:13:411:13:43

and to the people of the North and the people of Ireland is a totally

1:13:431:13:46

different deal to what would be good for Theresa Villiers and others.

1:13:461:13:50

And we have to ensure that the Dublin government,

1:13:501:13:52

local politicians, work out a deal which recognises

1:13:521:13:56

the political, social and economic history of this island

1:13:561:13:59

and protects the rights of everyone on the island.

1:13:591:14:01

Do you think, Mike Nesbitt, that an all-Ireland approach is required

1:14:011:14:05

to get the best deal for everyone in this place?

1:14:051:14:08

What I think, Noel, is that the result is a result

1:14:091:14:12

and it's now up to us as politicians to implement it.

1:14:121:14:15

But the surprising thing is that there is no plan.

1:14:151:14:18

The Northern Ireland executive doesn't have a plan,

1:14:181:14:20

the UK government doesn't have a plan, Europe doesn't have a plan.

1:14:201:14:23

And most shockingly of all,

1:14:231:14:25

those who led the Brexit campaign do not have a plan.

1:14:251:14:28

And that is why we have now entered

1:14:281:14:30

an era of uncertainty, which will last longer than the two years

1:14:301:14:34

that will follow the triggering of this Article 50.

1:14:341:14:37

And what we need is some certainty.

1:14:371:14:39

And those who masterminded Brexit

1:14:391:14:41

have to manage expectations because, as people have said,

1:14:411:14:45

people are expecting £350 million a week for the NHS.

1:14:451:14:48

That money doesn't exist...

1:14:481:14:49

And should never have been promised, according to Nigel Farage.

1:14:491:14:53

We were promised that there would be drastic action on immigration.

1:14:531:14:56

It's now clear from what Dan and Anne said

1:14:561:14:58

that's not going to happen either.

1:14:581:15:00

Coming the other way, Brussels are saying, "Get on with it.

1:15:001:15:03

"And, if you want to stay in the single market,

1:15:031:15:05

"you will do it on our terms, by our rules."

1:15:051:15:07

The three of you have said there's no plan.

1:15:071:15:09

Ian Paisley was saying all along there is. What is the plan?

1:15:091:15:12

I think, first of all, we have to...

1:15:121:15:15

we must address the denial that this has taken place.

1:15:151:15:18

And there's a denial that there's now going to be a consequence.

1:15:181:15:21

There is a consequence and the consequence is negotiations now.

1:15:211:15:25

On Monday, in the House, the Prime Minister outlined that he had

1:15:251:15:28

already established a working group within the Cabinet.

1:15:281:15:32

The first meeting of that working group has already taken place.

1:15:321:15:35

Indeed, parties like my own have already been approached

1:15:351:15:38

to make contact and to start putting the ideas on the table.

1:15:381:15:42

So if others are being left out or are excluding themselves

1:15:421:15:45

because they're not keeping up with what's happening in the class,

1:15:451:15:48

that's a matter for them.

1:15:481:15:49

So the plan is let's negotiate and see what happens.

1:15:491:15:52

-It's not much of a plan.

-I think, in all negotiations... Remember,

1:15:521:15:56

this is about our money and freeing our money so we don't have to

1:15:561:16:00

give it to Europe, and then wait for Europe to give some of it back

1:16:001:16:03

and then spend the rest the way they wish to spend it.

1:16:031:16:06

So we are working to make sure we can get that money spent on ourselves.

1:16:061:16:10

And out of that, Northern Ireland,

1:16:101:16:12

even by a minor calculation, using the Barnett formula alone,

1:16:121:16:15

will be almost £1 billion, almost £600 million,

1:16:151:16:18

better off a year, every year, going forward

1:16:181:16:21

from the day we actually release ourselves from Europe.

1:16:211:16:23

Let me bring in John O'Dowd on that important point.

1:16:231:16:25

I think those who support the Leave campaign should be careful with throwing out figures

1:16:251:16:29

because their figures have proven to be wrong.

1:16:291:16:32

If you start throwing out grandiose figures now,

1:16:321:16:34

they could be proved wrong in the future.

1:16:341:16:36

So let's approach it in a sensible, rational fashion.

1:16:361:16:38

Firstly, the Prime Minister is organising negotiations.

1:16:381:16:43

-There is no Prime Minister.

-There is a Prime Minister!

1:16:431:16:45

David Cameron stepped out of Downing Street on Friday morning

1:16:451:16:50

and announced he was standing down because he couldn't lead

1:16:501:16:54

the Brexit negotiations to leave

1:16:541:16:56

because he didn't... He didn't say these words,

1:16:561:16:58

but he doesn't have the control of the Conservative Party.

1:16:581:17:01

-You're in denial.

-Please let everyone else speak.

1:17:011:17:04

He doesn't have the control of the Conservative Party

1:17:041:17:06

and he doesn't have the backing of various regions

1:17:061:17:08

of what is referred to as the United Kingdom,

1:17:081:17:10

so there is no Prime Minister to lead negotiations.

1:17:101:17:13

What we have to do and ensure is that the rights of entitlement

1:17:131:17:17

of the people on this island, in the North, who voted against the Leave,

1:17:171:17:22

they voted to Remain, are protected.

1:17:221:17:24

Those aren't different from the rights of the people in the North of England or Scotland or Wales.

1:17:241:17:28

They are in a geographical and political sense.

1:17:281:17:30

We are the only part of these islands

1:17:301:17:33

with a boarder now with the EU.

1:17:331:17:35

That has a reality for those people you were speaking to

1:17:351:17:38

in South Armagh and South Down

1:17:381:17:39

and it will have a reality for us all across these islands,

1:17:391:17:42

so we have to deal with that.

1:17:421:17:44

We are the only people who have a contested part -

1:17:441:17:47

well, Scotland is certainly entering that territory, which is protected

1:17:471:17:50

under an international agreement known as the Good Friday Agreement.

1:17:501:17:53

So all those things have to be taken into account and they have to

1:17:531:17:56

be dealt with, and our rights and entitlements have to be supported.

1:17:561:17:59

In what way, Mike Nesbitt, might that led to

1:17:591:18:02

some kind of different deal for the people of Northern Ireland?

1:18:021:18:06

-I don't know the answer to that.

-Would you like to see one?

1:18:061:18:09

-I would like...

-A special deal.

1:18:091:18:11

I'd like the Brexiteers to tell us what the plan is.

1:18:111:18:14

Now, I've said I accept the result.

1:18:141:18:16

I also think it would be a very foolish unionist who did not

1:18:161:18:19

acknowledge the two component parts to the United Kingdom -

1:18:191:18:22

Scotland and Northern Ireland - had majorities voting to remain.

1:18:221:18:25

I am amazed the Secretary of State is not aware

1:18:251:18:28

that there are nationalists who, over the last few years, were

1:18:281:18:31

content to live in Northern Ireland, within the United Kingdom,

1:18:311:18:35

because we were also in Europe

1:18:351:18:37

and part of their identity

1:18:371:18:38

was their ability to express their Europeanness.

1:18:381:18:41

For them, this has changed everything

1:18:411:18:43

and Unionists need to listen to them and be empathetic to them

1:18:431:18:46

because this is potentially a nationalist Anglo-Irish agreement,

1:18:461:18:51

where people from outside have come in

1:18:511:18:54

and impose something against their will.

1:18:541:18:56

Let me ask Claire Hanna for a nationalist view on that.

1:18:561:18:59

The point is, yes, it's not just a nationalist view to say

1:18:591:19:02

people here know better for people here and not people in England.

1:19:021:19:05

That's not just a nationalist view,

1:19:051:19:06

that is the whole purpose of devolution.

1:19:061:19:08

The DUP can't keep picking and choosing which majorities they'll go far.

1:19:081:19:12

They don't agree... The whole of the UK agrees...

1:19:121:19:15

supports equal marriage and they won't have that in here.

1:19:151:19:18

The whole of the UK flies our flag, they won't have that here.

1:19:181:19:21

And it took them decades to accept the Good Friday Agreement.

1:19:211:19:23

It's no wonder they don't like Europe -

1:19:231:19:25

that was about pooling your ideas and your resources and your power

1:19:251:19:28

to get a better deal for everyone and they threw that away.

1:19:281:19:31

But that included the principle of consent.

1:19:311:19:33

And consent has not been given

1:19:331:19:35

to change the constitutional status

1:19:351:19:37

or to change the status of us being in Europe.

1:19:371:19:39

So there are options, and we need to not just wash along, as I say,

1:19:391:19:43

we need to do what Nicola Sturgeon is doing and she's going there,

1:19:431:19:47

she's negotiating. We need to be in Dublin, we need to be in Brussels

1:19:471:19:50

and we need to be having those conversations.

1:19:501:19:52

And we need to be having them as well. There's no more money.

1:19:521:19:55

The fiscal tightening that's coming in the autumn budget,

1:19:551:19:58

there's no more money coming from there.

1:19:581:19:59

Ian Paisley, will you be dealing directly with Dublin to figure out

1:19:591:20:03

the best way to help the majority of people in this island?

1:20:031:20:06

Again, I'm not the one in denial.

1:20:061:20:08

I believe that a good negotiation is a listening negotiation

1:20:081:20:12

as well as a talking negotiation.

1:20:121:20:13

Of course we will be making the points already

1:20:131:20:16

to Her Majesty's Government,

1:20:161:20:17

these are the issues that will affect this part

1:20:171:20:20

of the United Kingdom, these are the issues which must be addressed.

1:20:201:20:22

And in order to form a complete picture of that,

1:20:221:20:25

of course there must be good, responsive,

1:20:251:20:27

cooperative discussions with the Irish government

1:20:271:20:30

and between the devolved Assembly and the Irish government.

1:20:301:20:33

It's important that all the people around the table -

1:20:331:20:35

that'll include Sinn Fein the SDLP, and the Ulster Unionists,

1:20:351:20:38

if they all want to be there -

1:20:381:20:40

that they make those points and feed into that

1:20:401:20:42

because that Cabinet working group will be more than just

1:20:421:20:45

a Conservative Party working group.

1:20:451:20:47

We've got to address these points.

1:20:471:20:49

I really don't mind what the machinations are

1:20:491:20:52

within the Conservative Party.

1:20:521:20:54

But I was part of a national movement

1:20:541:20:56

that was led by people like Gisele Stuart,

1:20:561:20:58

hardly an Eton toff, Kate Hoey, hardly an Eton toff,

1:20:581:21:01

people who were making key points and saying, you know,

1:21:011:21:04

the little person in the United Kingdom is left out by this entire agreement.

1:21:041:21:08

They want to have a new beginning and a better start for the UK

1:21:081:21:11

and that's what we're doing,

1:21:111:21:12

and I don't ignore the fact that there were more people

1:21:121:21:16

in Northern Ireland voted to remain than there were to leave.

1:21:161:21:19

But I also recognise the fact that in my constituency,

1:21:191:21:22

in Mike's constituency in South Antrim, across Northern Ireland,

1:21:221:21:26

the vast majority in those areas said, "We want to leave."

1:21:261:21:29

We must make sure that that balance is brought to bear.

1:21:291:21:32

Let's get everyone else in, if I may.

1:21:321:21:34

John O'Dowd, talk of border pollers -

1:21:341:21:37

distracting and nonsensical, isn't it?

1:21:371:21:39

No, because when we have a constitutional crisis,

1:21:391:21:44

as has been landed upon us by the Brexit vote,

1:21:441:21:47

then we will always put forward

1:21:471:21:49

that a united Ireland is the most sensible alternative moving forward.

1:21:491:21:54

As an Irish republican, I reserve that right on any occasion

1:21:541:21:57

to demand a border poll.

1:21:571:21:58

I believe that the social economic destiny of this island

1:21:581:22:02

is within the reunification of Ireland.

1:22:021:22:05

But you that know a border poll would not win.

1:22:051:22:08

No, I don't know that.

1:22:081:22:09

Those who put that back to me say it is not going to win.

1:22:091:22:12

I put the challenge out to them - let's have one.

1:22:121:22:14

Let's have a sensible, mature debate.

1:22:141:22:16

Let's have an economic debate on it.

1:22:161:22:17

I have always believed in Irish unity and probably believe in it

1:22:171:22:20

even more now, but it still has to be agreed and planned and we have

1:22:201:22:23

just seen what a leap into the dark is in a referendum that

1:22:231:22:26

doesn't have a clear question.

1:22:261:22:27

We have just seen the passions that is arises in people, so it would be

1:22:271:22:32

unstable and it would be lost.

1:22:321:22:33

But I think it is important to say, fundamentally,

1:22:331:22:35

the relationship between a lot of moderate nationalists

1:22:351:22:38

and the UK has been altered and that needs to be taken into account.

1:22:381:22:41

Do you fear Brexit might change the result of a border poll?

1:22:411:22:45

The law says the Secretary of State can only call it

1:22:451:22:47

if she believes there is a likelihood that there'll be a

1:22:471:22:50

change in the constitutional status -

1:22:501:22:51

there is no evidence for that.

1:22:511:22:53

I think if she called it, she would find herself in front of the court

1:22:531:22:56

with a judicial review.

1:22:561:22:57

What we really want to know is who will guarantee that

1:22:571:23:00

nobody in Northern Ireland, no individual, no farmer,

1:23:001:23:03

no voluntary or community sector group, no university

1:23:031:23:05

is going to be worse off after we are out of Europe

1:23:051:23:08

and we don't have the money.

1:23:081:23:09

Thank you all very much indeed.

1:23:091:23:11

One unfortunate outcome of Thursday's vote - a reported

1:23:111:23:14

outbreak of racist intimidation across the UK.

1:23:141:23:17

Families here too have spoken of unpleasant confrontations.

1:23:171:23:21

Stephen Dempster met with one Polish family at worship in East Belfast,

1:23:211:23:25

the only constituency in the city to vote Leave.

1:23:251:23:27

Sunday morning, east Belfast -

1:23:351:23:38

a protestant, unionist heartland,

1:23:381:23:43

and members of the Polish community are gathered for a Catholic

1:23:431:23:46

mass at St Anthony's church on the Woodstock Road.

1:23:461:23:50

SPEAKS POLISH

1:23:551:23:56

The decision to leave the EU is now testing this immigrant

1:23:591:24:04

community's faith that it has a future in this part of the UK.

1:24:041:24:08

I have a business in here the last four years and I don't think it

1:24:121:24:16

will change much for the next couple of years,

1:24:161:24:20

but I can't even imagine to pack myself and back to Poland.

1:24:201:24:24

There's nothing in there for me. I left everything.

1:24:241:24:28

Now I'm just thinking about this very quietly

1:24:281:24:31

and I hope everything will be fine.

1:24:311:24:33

I feel like Northern Ireland, Belfast, is my home.

1:24:331:24:37

The Polish community is the largest group of foreign nationals here,

1:24:381:24:42

believed to be well over 20,000 people.

1:24:421:24:45

Daniel and Dorothy Konieczny have lived in Northern Ireland

1:24:531:24:56

since 2004.

1:24:561:24:59

The majority of their friends are Northern Irish.

1:24:591:25:02

I like people from here, they are more friendly,

1:25:021:25:06

I would say, they're more helpful.

1:25:061:25:08

It doesn't matter if it's an old person or a young person.

1:25:081:25:11

When I came here and I was walking through the streets,

1:25:111:25:15

everyone was like, "All right, all right, mate?"

1:25:151:25:18

Yes, people are very friendly here.

1:25:181:25:21

Two best mans were local people in our wedding.

1:25:211:25:25

The Father, the Son and Holy Spirit. Amen.

1:25:251:25:30

They feel a genuine sense of commitment to Northern Ireland.

1:25:301:25:33

There is a moment when you just realise,

1:25:351:25:37

it's not any more home as Poland, it is home in Belfast.

1:25:371:25:42

It's like that's the switch in your mind

1:25:421:25:45

and then you know your home is here, basically, yes.

1:25:451:25:48

Now that the UK is to quit the EU,

1:25:521:25:55

they're uncertain what the future holds for them

1:25:551:25:57

and their five-year-old daughter, Emily, who was born here.

1:25:571:26:01

What happens to EU nationals has not yet been decided by government.

1:26:021:26:07

I feel that we don't know what is our position now. We are confused.

1:26:071:26:12

We don't know what actual rights we are going to have.

1:26:121:26:14

We don't know what we can do.

1:26:141:26:17

Immigration played a crucial role in the vote.

1:26:171:26:20

Those who fear the impact of foreign nationals on public services

1:26:201:26:24

and jobs welcomed the promise of border controls.

1:26:241:26:27

Daniel moved here when a recruitment agency in Poland came

1:26:311:26:35

looking for him because a factory in Lisburn needed workers.

1:26:351:26:39

And now he and Dorothy run several businesses,

1:26:411:26:44

contributing to the NI economy and employing 11 people.

1:26:441:26:48

I don't feel comfortable when they say we are stealing their jobs

1:26:491:26:53

because everyone has the same opportunity to go

1:26:531:26:57

and find a job, to start working.

1:26:571:26:59

I am cross with someone who would say, "Oh, you are Polish,

1:26:591:27:03

"or you from there, and you are stealing our opportunity to work."

1:27:031:27:06

I know not all the people is going to be looking this way.

1:27:061:27:11

Most of the people they will treat us as usual.

1:27:111:27:15

I felt unwelcome in 2004 because that was a big thing,

1:27:151:27:21

throwing all that... A bit racist.

1:27:211:27:24

There's more integration now than it was

1:27:241:27:27

whenever we came here, basically, but raising the issue,

1:27:271:27:31

saying, "Immigrants", and, "We don't need them",

1:27:311:27:34

and all that stuff, it's quite challenging.

1:27:341:27:37

Like everyone else, the Konieczny family now face an uncertain

1:27:391:27:43

wait to see how the post-Brexit world takes shape.

1:27:431:27:47

Let's see if we can sum it up with our next guests, Fintan O'Toole

1:27:481:27:51

of the Irish Times and the commentator Alex Kane.

1:27:511:27:54

Fintan O'Toole, you have said the Brexit vote put a bomb

1:27:541:27:58

under the peace process.

1:27:581:27:59

Was that something you write that in the heat of the moment?

1:27:591:28:02

No, people argue about the language

1:28:021:28:04

but this is the most scandalously reckless political movement

1:28:041:28:08

that we have seen in our lifetimes in a democratic society.

1:28:081:28:12

Anybody watching the debate, as it unfolded in the UK as a whole,

1:28:131:28:17

would have been struck by the degree

1:28:171:28:19

to which Northern Ireland didn't matter.

1:28:191:28:21

There are four really serious things

1:28:211:28:24

happening to Northern Ireland -

1:28:241:28:26

one is that there is a hard border.

1:28:261:28:27

This fantasy somehow that you can both have immigration control

1:28:271:28:32

and an open border between the United Kingdom and the EU,

1:28:321:28:36

it just doesn't stand up for a moment.

1:28:361:28:38

The only chance that it is not going to happen is that the Leave

1:28:381:28:42

campaigners were lying about that as much as they were

1:28:421:28:44

lying about everything else, which is a possibility

1:28:441:28:47

because this was one of the most mendacious campaigns

1:28:471:28:49

we've ever seen.

1:28:491:28:50

This was a core issue for them and the whole momentum in British

1:28:501:28:54

politics is towards control of immigration.

1:28:541:28:57

You cannot control immigration without a hard border.

1:28:571:29:00

The second thing is that the UK breaking up,

1:29:001:29:04

they didn't care about that.

1:29:041:29:06

The third thing is that there is a rise of English nationalism

1:29:061:29:10

which people are not paying attention to.

1:29:101:29:12

This is English nationalism.

1:29:121:29:14

Do you really think that the new ruling class in England,

1:29:141:29:17

which is willing to get rid of Scotland,

1:29:171:29:19

didn't care enough about Scotland to leave it go, is going

1:29:191:29:23

to care enough about Northern Ireland to put all of this

1:29:231:29:25

money that is being taken out from the EU back into Northern Ireland?

1:29:251:29:30

They do not care and they made it very clear they don't care.

1:29:301:29:33

The final point is that all of this is going to happen

1:29:331:29:36

in an economic crisis.

1:29:361:29:37

The economic cost of this, at the very least in the short-term,

1:29:371:29:42

is pretty catastrophic.

1:29:421:29:43

You agree it is a revolution,

1:29:431:29:46

but a revolution of the patronised and ignored in your view?

1:29:461:29:49

It is. I think there is a hard-core of English working class,

1:29:491:29:54

particularly on the sink estates, who have believed in the past 30,

1:29:541:29:57

40 years, that they have been ignored.

1:29:571:29:59

They have no confidence in Labour or Conservative.

1:29:591:30:02

They don't see either of those parties as representing them.

1:30:021:30:05

I'm not even sure they see a party like Ukip or the

1:30:051:30:07

English Defence League as representing them.

1:30:071:30:10

They got it into their heads, and it came through Ukip,

1:30:101:30:12

they got it into their heads they could hurt the establishment

1:30:121:30:15

and they decided to do that.

1:30:151:30:17

In terms of what Fintan was talking about,

1:30:171:30:20

the only other referendum I remember in detail

1:30:201:30:22

was the Good Friday Agreement.

1:30:221:30:24

I remember on the day the count came in, May 1998,

1:30:241:30:27

talking and interviewing leading figures from both the Yes and No

1:30:271:30:30

campaigns, asking them what they thought Northern Ireland

1:30:301:30:33

would look like in ten or 20 years' time.

1:30:331:30:35

Looking back over those notes in the past couple of days,

1:30:351:30:37

they were mostly wrong on every single issue.

1:30:371:30:40

I just think, at this stage in Northern Ireland and

1:30:401:30:42

everyone across the United Kingdom, were in the shock phase.

1:30:421:30:45

No-one expected this result.

1:30:451:30:47

Fintan is right, nobody had anything.

1:30:471:30:51

He is completely right. It was lie upon lie from both sides.

1:30:511:30:55

In the longer term , you have written that you don't believe

1:30:551:30:57

Northern Ireland can be sustained in its current position outside the EU?

1:30:571:31:02

I am not happy about that, I'm not advocating this,

1:31:021:31:04

but I think if you look at it objectively, where are we heading?

1:31:041:31:08

We're heading towards an English national state.

1:31:081:31:11

The genie that's been let out of the bottle is English nationalism

1:31:111:31:14

and it's proved to be a much more powerful force

1:31:141:31:16

than anybody suspected.

1:31:161:31:17

Its logic is the break-up of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland

1:31:171:31:22

as an appendage of an English national state,

1:31:221:31:26

which is governed by English nationalism, is not interested

1:31:261:31:29

in Northern Ireland, not interested in Scotland,

1:31:291:31:31

not interested in the European Union is not sustainable.

1:31:311:31:34

This is why the whole architecture of the peace process is

1:31:341:31:38

really being very deeply undermined.

1:31:381:31:40

We are going to have to think very carefully about what the future

1:31:401:31:44

is and I don't think this is something we panic about, or it's

1:31:441:31:46

an excuse for anybody to go back to any kind of violence, but we have to

1:31:461:31:49

think about one of the relationships in this new world between

1:31:491:31:52

Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

1:31:521:31:55

It may well be that those entities have to start thinking about very

1:31:551:31:58

close relationships within the European Union.

1:31:581:32:01

That may be something that none of us ever thought about.

1:32:011:32:04

The real problem here is, if you think about the Scottish

1:32:041:32:07

referendum, the independence referendum, the SNP,

1:32:071:32:10

whether you agree Scottish independence or not,

1:32:101:32:13

they produced a 650-page document on what the future

1:32:131:32:16

was as they proposed it.

1:32:161:32:17

These people, this reckless ruling class, hasn't even got the

1:32:181:32:22

back of a cigarette packet and they are creating anarchy.

1:32:221:32:26

You can see at the moment that you have no effective government in

1:32:261:32:29

England, no effective opposition and nobody knows where this will all go.

1:32:291:32:33

I would predict that this is not over,

1:32:331:32:35

that this question will be reopened, because it will have to be.

1:32:351:32:39

Oddly enough, I am not that pessimistic.

1:32:391:32:42

I think what will happen is I agree there is an English

1:32:421:32:45

nationalism that has been awakened,

1:32:451:32:47

but they are not going to be represented in the next Parliament.

1:32:471:32:50

I think there will be an early election and I think it will be

1:32:501:32:53

Conservatives and Labour. Very few Ukip will make the breakthrough.

1:32:531:32:57

-It is not Ukip! It is the Tories, the government!

-I don't think...

1:32:571:33:00

What about Ireland, as it's been suggested,

1:33:001:33:02

thinking about its position in the EU?

1:33:021:33:04

Ireland will have to think, but one thing that is crucial in all of

1:33:041:33:09

this, that triangle - London, Dublin, Belfast triangle - matters.

1:33:091:33:12

I think Brussels will give them a fairly easy ride.

1:33:121:33:15

Some people believe the peace process is in trouble.

1:33:151:33:18

They will go out of their way... And going back to that 1998 point again,

1:33:181:33:21

so many things I was told. You have been there.

1:33:211:33:24

We're told it could never happen, would never happen,

1:33:241:33:26

were not possible, miraculously to save something,

1:33:261:33:30

they all become possible.

1:33:301:33:31

Everyone is gloomy at the moment - I can understand that.

1:33:311:33:34

-It is not as bad as it looks.

-Gentleman, thank you both very much.

1:33:341:33:36

One thing we can be sure of, there'll be lots more drama in the

1:33:361:33:40

next days, weeks and years.

1:33:401:33:41

From all on the Spotlight team, a very good night.

1:33:411:33:44

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