Brexit Spotlight

Good evening. Well, hasn't it been a dramatic few days,

since the vote to leave the EU?

The Tory and Labour parties are up to their necks

in leadership struggles at Westminster,

Nigel Farage is insulting MEPs in Brussels,

the Dail has been recalled,

Stormont has had an emergency debate.

Over the next hour, though, we'll try and cast some light

on what all of this means for Northern Ireland

and its relationship with the Republic.

We'll talk to the Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers,

and the former First Minister, Lord Trimble.

We'll hear a view from Scotland,

where a second independence referendum is on the cards,

and we'll learn the hopes and fears of a Polish family living here.

The Brexit vote has thrown up myriad questions about

the political and economic future of the United Kingdom.

But in Northern Ireland, the answers are more complex,

because, of course, of our EU neighbours in the Republic.

Conor Spackman asks how it's all going down

along the border and elsewhere.

The border areas of South Down and South Armagh

have been transformed since the end of the Troubles.

The economy, once shrouded in gloom,

now seeing sunnier times.

Here, many believe it wouldn't have happened

without the European Union.

The EU has been a big part of it in two ways.

The Single European Act, when it was implemented in 1992,

the effect here was the removal of

customs barriers, and that was a removal to

the movement of goods, which liberated many businesses here.

But it also was a stakeholder in financing infrastructure.

This area was devastated economically by partition.

That changed radically in the '90s and 2000s, and significant growth

within the local economy happened from the mid-1990s onwards,

but it was exponential in the 2000s.

Across Europe, the EU prioritises help

for peripheral regions which have been economically disadvantaged.

The village of Forkhill was once cut in two by a massive Army base,

but it's now derelict, and a prime site for development.

Bernard Boyle has big plans to use it to boost the local economy,

but he was counting on EU money.

We had anticipated that we would get

funding from Europe to build the business units,

and that funding, we can't see that...

There's a possibility that that's not going to happen now.

You are not confident of getting it from Stormont

or even from Westminster?

Absolutely not, absolutely not, you know, we have already,

over the years, have lobbied Stormont and Westminster

as far as funding for sustainable projects

in this area is concerned, and we have been singularly unsuccessful.

For Bernard, it's not good enough

to say that the UK as a whole voted to Leave.

We see what the benefits of being in Europe are, but we have been

dragged out of Europe kicking and screaming,

whereas we wanted to remain.

It may be seen as a democratic process,

but it hasn't been democratic as far as we are concerned.

In Downpatrick, Oliver Gilchrist has a cattle farm

and trades across the border.

Even with uncertainty over subsidies, he voted for Brexit,

believing that Stormont and Westminster

would deliver more for farmers than Brussels.

I wasn't happy with the way the EU was telling us

what to do and bringing in all the new regulations

that we had to abide by.

That's the way I would have seen it.

And, and...

Just too many inspections, farm inspections

and too many people getting big money when farmers getting nothing.

Who was getting the big money?

Well, the supermarkets, to start with.

The factories, and the thousands of bureaucrats

that were working in Brussels...

..that probably knew nothing about farming.

So, in a nutshell, you have lot more faith

in London, in Westminster, than you do in Brussels.

100% more. I think you can't beat having a local government.

Ballymena exporter

and former chair of the Conservatives here, Irwin Armstrong,

also backed Brexit. He says fears of uncertainty are exaggerated.

Anybody in business knows the future is always very uncertain.

You make investment plans,

you don't know what's going to happen,

so this is not much different from that.

And he says complaints from places like South Armagh

that the vote is not really democratic are worrying.

I think we're in a very dangerous situation.

We represent about 2-3% of the United Kingdom,

and 2-3% cannot dictate to the rest of the country

what's going to happen, you know,

that is totally unconstitutional.

Northern Ireland is part of the United Kingdom,

and will have to operate as part of the United Kingdom.

Driving along narrow country lanes at the border,

often the only sign of going from north to south

is the chopping and changing of road signs - not like the old days.

Customs posts like this were

once symbols of the border between north and south.

But with Northern Ireland and the Republic

both members of the European Union,

with its rules on the free movements of goods, they became redundant.

Now, though, with Northern Ireland now set to leave the European Union,

the question is whether some sort of physical border,

perhaps customs posts or maybe even passport controls,

might have to be introduced.

That question remains unresolved.

Jonathan Powell, an architect of the Good Friday Agreement,

says open borders were important

in getting nationalists to buy into the peace process.

The Good Friday Agreement was based on

the idea that the border became less significant.

You remember all those concrete blocks that

blocked the lanes and byways of the border,

they were removed as part of the agreement.

We're going to end up with them back to stop people coming across,

so they go to customs posts and immigration controls.

It's going to really undermine part of the basis of the very agreement.

Unionists in favour of Brexit have dismissed fears of a hard border.

Theresa Villiers, though, the Secretary of State,

has said that the Common Travel Area

persisted throughout the war,

throughout the Troubles. Why are you not reassured by that?

Well, because she's completely missing the point.

The Common Travel Area goes right back in history to

the creation of Northern Ireland.

The problem is that we've always had the same immigration policies,

and if we stop free movement of people around the European Union,

then you can't have an open border.

Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin says a hard border would be

a major step backwards.

I think it could do a lot of damage to the island of Ireland.

I think it could be exploited by forces who would use it

to pursue their own militant agendas.

And it is amazing how much we take for granted

when all of this has disappeared, it is only their re-introduction

will really bring it home to people,

the enormity of the decision that has been taken.

So, therefore, I think it would be damaging.

Jonathan Powell believes that the possible reimposition

of a hard border may not be the only major consequence of Brexit.

I think it is really rather a serious threat

to the United Kingdom and its existence.

And it's slightly paradoxical that these people

who campaigned for Brexit, who are supposedly champions

of the United Kingdom have led to its possible demise.

It seems almost certain, after what Nicola Sturgeon said,

that we're going to end up with a referendum in Scotland.

It seems extremely likely

that referendum will go for independence in Scotland.

But Irwin Armstrong doesn't believe

the north-south arrangements will be affected,

or that Scotland will become independent.

There would be no reason for any change in the way we operate.

I would encourage Nicola Sturgeon

to have another referendum if she actually wants one.

She knows she won't win it, the people know she won't win it,

and the people don't want it.

While Brexiteers stress

that little needs to change,

in South Armagh there's a feeling that things have already changed,

and new divides have opened up.

I think the challenge for those who proposed Brexit

actually is the map of how people voted Remain and Leave.

Because three-quarters of Belfast

voted to remain.

All but County Antrim and part of North Armagh,

North Down voted to remain,

and, therefore, there is a geopolitical dimension to this.

You know, Ulster, so often talked about out and so often used

as a moniker to describe Northern Ireland,

it shrank from nine counties to six.

Is it now to shrink to one county?

Be careful what you wish for.

David Cameron said the referendum would settle

the debate over the European Union once and for all.

In fact, the outcome has been the opposite.

It's also prompted a whole series

of new questions about the economy, identity

and the future of another union,

the United Kingdom itself.

Conor Spackman reporting.

The Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, was an outspoken

Leave campaigner. She may be in line for a promotion

when the Tories sort themselves out at the end of the summer.

I asked her if, amid all the uncertainty, she had a clear vision

of a post-Brexit Northern Ireland economy.

I think there are great opportunities

for Northern Ireland after this Brexit vote.

Not only will we have a good trade deal

with the European Union, but we will be able to

negotiate trade deals with many countries around the world,

opening up real opportunities for Northern Ireland exports.

You don't know, of course, what deal you will have

with the European Union.

Well, the fact is that the European Union sell more to us

than we do to them, so it is in their interests

as well as ours to have a good deal,

and they have what is effectively a free-trade zone

between Iceland and the Russian border.

We are going to be part of that, we are going to get a good deal.

Northern Ireland will continue to be a fantastic place to invest in,

including for those that want to export to the rest of Europe.

Again, you don't know that, and some people in Europe are saying

they want to make an example of the UK

so that others won't be tempted to follow suit.

So they may not have the already-in-place tariffs,

there may be higher tariffs,

you just don't know. That's the point, isn't it?

Trade negotiations are a hard-headed thing to carry out,

and, for example, we have a significant deficit in cars.

The rest of the EU sell far more cars to us

than we do to them. It is not in the interests of

German car manufacturers to have tariffs going up.

They don't set the tariffs, Europe sets the tariffs.

Yes, but the German government certainly listens

to their car manufacturers, because they know their economy

is dependent on exports.

We are the EU's biggest export market,

we are the fifth biggest economy in the world.

It is in both our interests,

both the remaining members of the EU and the UK,

to have a good trade deal, to continue to trade

and cooperate on matters of mutual interest.

So much of Northern Ireland's business goes to the Republic,

and a significant proportion of

the Republic's business comes from Northern Ireland.

That will be damaged by the hard border,

which everyone now says will emerge in some form from this Brexit.

But they're not saying that.

Both the UK Government and the Irish government want to have

an open border. We are already working on that.

They want to have but it's decided by Europe!

Ireland is part of the EU. It will have to

abide by what the EU dictates.

The Common Travel Area has been a part of this island for

nearly 100 years. It survived a civil war, a World War

and 30 years of The Troubles. It can survive a Brexit vote.

It's in the interests of both the UK and Ireland to keep

-that border open.

-It was dependent on there being

common laws and regulations between Ireland and Great Britain.

That is no longer the case. The EU rules supreme.

The Common Travel Area, there are risks already associated with having

the Common Travel Area and an open land border

and we manage them perfectly well today.

We can continue to do that after we leave the European Union.

It's perfectly possible to do that,

with common sense on both sides, and again, it's in the interests

of the Republic of Ireland to maintain that open border.

So, I don't see that the EU is going to

put barriers in the way of one of their own member states

from continuing to trade with the UK.

For the same reason as it may limit

trade deals, because it wants to set some kind of an example.

Ireland has already said, many of its politicians are saying,

when it comes to it, Great Britain are great friends, of course this is

a common land border, but we must put what the EU wants first.

We must show that we are good Europeans before

we delve into or try to develop this friendship, or continue this

friendship with Great Britain.

In the conversations I've had directly with Minister Flanagan,

there is a strong will to maintain an open border

and that is the clear position that I have been told

in relation to the approach. It's in all our interests.

There must be immigration and customs controls. That's a basic.

The whole argument about immigration

on the Leave campaign's side dictates

that there be some kind of immigration control at the border.

You don't have to use physical border checks

to deal with immigration issues.

Clearly, Irish citizens will continue to enjoy

all the rights that they currently have today.

They are entirely independent of free movement.

I think it's far-fetched to think

that somehow there will be thousands of

non-Irish EU citizens suddenly flooding across the border

if we were to change free movement rules,

and if that does happen and we have changed free movement rules,

and they come without the appropriate permissions,

they won't be allowed to work, they won't be able to open

a bank account, they won't be able to rent property

and ultimately, in serious cases, they could be deported.

So, you can control illegal migration through means

which don't require physical checks at a border.

The peace process, there are fears that a Brexit damages

the peace process. Europe was so much part of

the Good Friday Agreement, not least in terms of equality laws

and the Human Rights Convention.

To what extent has that been damaged by this vote?

I don't believe it has at all. I think support for

the political settlement and the principle of

democracy and consent is rock-solid in Northern Ireland.

The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland

believe that their future should only be

determined by democracy and consent

and there is no suggestion that that resolute determination

is going to be changed in any way by a Brexit vote.

A lot of people feel though that the very basis

of the agreement has now been changed.

There... It is entirely...

A Brexit vote is entirely consistent with the Belfast agreement,

there is nothing to say that the UK can't vote to leave

the European Union. The reality is,

the peace settlement, the political settlement enjoys huge support.

Politics are very stable in Northern Ireland

in comparison to many places.

Do you think there are many Nationalists who were becoming perhaps more content

in Northern Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement

will now be thinking, you know what, we need to get a united Ireland.

I don't see there is any evidence for that...

Apart from the hundreds of people applying for Irish passports in the last few days.

The key concerns people have is they want to make sure that

we retain our open border and retain all our co-operation and

our trade with the Republic of Ireland. Absolutely, that's

exactly what we want to do. And that's what we're going to do.

There's every sign that Scotland's going to go for a second referendum.

If this Brexit leads to the break-up of the United Kingdom,

is it a price worth paying?

I don't believe the United Kingdom is going to break up.

The Scottish people voted by a clear margin to stay

-in the United Kingdom.

-Unanimously, actually.

They voted by 10% to stay in the United Kingdom.

Every area voted to stay in.

I'm talking about the Scottish separation referendum.

That referendum should be respected in Scotland.

They voted in favour of staying within the United Kingdom

and both sides agreed to respect that referendum

and when it took place the Scots knew perfectly well there was a forthcoming referendum

in which the United Kingdom would vote as a country on its membership of the EU.

They have the right to stage another referendum and

Nicola Sturgeon says she's going to enact the legislation.

But the question around Scottish separation has been settled by

a clear referendum. Both sides in the Edinburgh agreement

agree to respect that there is no reason to reopen the question.

The case for Scotland remaining in the UK is just as strong

as it was in 2014 when the vote took place.

-Secretary, thank you very much indeed.

-Thank you.

Theresa Villiers. The Irish government was recalled

this week to analyse the Brexit fallout.

The Irish European affairs Minister, Dara Murphy, has been sounding out

other member states in Brussels today.

I asked him if he'd found anyone ready to make allowances for what

the Taoiseach called the unique relationships on these islands?

I think there has been an awareness right throughout

the campaign. I suppose that while the Republic of Ireland

and Northern Ireland will of course have issues

to be dealt with in the political and in the economic,

we have other areas of... where we share issues.

Clearly the fact that we have had

a Common Travel Area since the 1920s, the UK and

the Republic joined in 1973, the European Union together,

so we have never been in a position

where one part, the Republic of Ireland is

out and the UK...is in, or in this case vice versa.

So, between that and the Common Travel Area

and I suppose the very deep links that there are between both Irelands

really I suppose, that is well understood,

and while we will be looking, of course, to negotiate

from the Irish Republic's point of view

as one of 27, we will be making the case

that for many reasons the issues that are specific

to the Republic of Ireland and indeed Northern Ireland

and the rest of Great Britain are unique and will need

to be treated in that fashion as unique.

You have a delicate balancing act to do

because you have to show yourselves to be good Europeans

and also you have to protect the interests of

your vital trade, the biggest trading partner,

the United Kingdom.

Yes, and I don't see that as a delicate balance.

I think it's a fairly obvious ambition and I think it's a fair and reasonable ambition.

We are good Europeans. We are of the view

most of the political parties in the South would be of the view

that the Republic's future does rest within the European Union.

Many parties, of course, feel that the European Union needs

to be improved, and I would agree with that part myself,

but better to improve it from the inside rather than from the outside.

But we don't see actually a contradiction or a conflict between

ensuring that trade and travel between these islands

remains as free and easy as possible for everybody

and our ambition to stay as a very strong member

of the European Union, in fact, the contrary is the case.

Will you argue against trade tariffs?

The answer to that is yes, we will be arguing to keep anything

that reduces trade between the UK and Ireland

and the European Union and the UK rather to an absolute minimum.

That is not in the interests, we believe, of anybody in Europe,

whether inside the EU or out.

If you are outside it, you pay tariffs, and the UK will

-be outside it?

-Yes, and I said that we need to

keep them to a minimum. It is far, far too early

now to get into the detail of what will be

the second part of this process, that is what

will be the new relationship between the UK and the EU.

First of all, of course, the process of how and when

the UK will leave, and I think it is welcome

that the Government in the UK has been given time now.

The sense of the meeting tonight is that it would be clearly necessary

that there will have to be a new Prime Minister,

a new government in place in London,

that can negotiate with the other 27 member states.

And what comes from those negotiations

will take time to see the detail of them.

Gerry Adams says the Irish government must deal

with this on an all-Ireland basis.

Will you feel any pressure, any requirement to speak out

for those nationalists in Northern Ireland

who voted to remain in the EU and who now feel

-that their voice has been silenced?

-It is clear

that there will be many voices supporting the issues

that will affect the people of Northern Ireland,

the Republic of Ireland and the UK.

I don't actually see that those voices will need

to be voices that will contradict each other

and certainly in any bilateral discussions we have had,

and in fact the Taoiseach has very much welcomed

David Cameron's statement that

Northern Ireland would have to have a special place

within these negotiations. So, I don't see it

that the Republic will be arguing for Northern Ireland

and someone else will be arguing against it.

In fact, I think there is a very good awareness of the journey we've

travelled in these islands and the unique position that we have.

Dara Murphy.

We were talking earlier about Scotland where the SNP say

they're gearing up for a second referendum on independence.

Of course, the last one was defeated by a significant margin

but could the Brexit shift opinion?

Darran Marshall's been finding out.

For Scotland, the campaign continues

and the dream shall never die.

Alex Salmond's resignation speech. Scotland had

rejected his lifetime ambition of independence.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

No.

CHEERING

It appeared dreams of independence had been checked -

the union secured.

And even the politician, dubbed by the Daily Mail

"the most dangerous woman in Britain", Nicola Sturgeon,

seemed unwilling to commit to a new referendum.

Overnight, everything changed.

Let June 23rd go down in our history as our independence day.

Lisburn man, David Clegg, is the political editor

of Scotland's Daily Record,

traditionally viewed as a Unionist paper.

He believes Britain's decision to exit Europe

could lead to Scotland quitting the UK.

We are only two years away from the independence referendum,

which returned a decisive "no" result,

but a lot of that was predicated on Scotland being

a member of the European Union through its membership of the UK,

so I think a lot of people are reconsidering their position.

Do you think the UK will now break up?

Um, with a bit of luck.

-Yes.

-I hope so.

-I hope so,

Scotland needs independence.

On the afternoon we filmed on this Glasgow high street,

most believe Scottish independence inevitable and the Union doomed.

Well, hopefully Scotland will go its own way.

-Do you think the UK will break up?

-No, not at all.

We'll all stay together. Why not? We love Scotland, we love Britain.

Independence is going to come now, yeah.

I think the UK will break up now.

Humza Yousaf, campaign director for the SNP in the referendum,

credits the successful Remain campaign north of the border

with its positive view of Europe,

something he feels the campaign elsewhere failed to advocate.

I think the immigration debate

and the toxicity of that debate took grip in many areas of the country.

I think if for 30 years successive UK governments have told you

that it is the immigrants' fault then, eventually,

the chickens frankly come home to roost.

Last Friday, in front of the saltire and the European flag,

Nicola Sturgeon revealed a second independence referendum

was an option she was considering.

Scotland faces the prospect of being taken

out of the EU against our will.

I regard that as democratically unacceptable.

And it is, therefore, a statement of the obvious that the option

of a second referendum must be on the table.

If you asked me a month ago, would there be another

independence referendum in the next few years? I would have said no.

This has certainly changed the game entirely.

This time, Scottish nationalists feel that the decision

on a second referendum has been forced

by those who voted to leave Europe.

Anybody with even a little bit of foresight would have been able

to see that this scenario that has played itself out,

of Scotland wanting to stay within the European Union

and the rest of the UK or parts of it wanting to leave,

could easily have played out.

Those pro-union Brexiters knew fine well that this could be

a situation that arose.

The Tory leader in Scotland campaigned for a Remain vote.

Despite the overall result of the referendum,

she doesn't believe the end of the United Kingdom is inevitable.

We do not address the challenges of leaving the European Union

by leaving our own union of nations,

our biggest market and our closest friends.

David Clegg believes the United Kingdom has been sacrificed

by English voters.

England seems to be turning inwards towards itself.

I think that was an expression of English nationalism

that was part of the reasons for the Leave result.

The voters in England had been warned not only that a Leave vote

would likely lead to renewed calls for Scottish independence

but also lead to a renewed push for a united Ireland from Sinn Fein.

They have ignored both of those elements whenever they've been

making their decision and have voted Leave regardless.

The referendum was a UK-wide poll with one overall decision

taken by the electorate, but Humza Yousaf believes many Scots value

the union with Europe over that with England.

The UK that people in Scotland voted to remain a part of

in September 2014, 55% of our population who chose to remain

in that UK - that UK doesn't exist anymore.

That UK has ceased to exist.

We were promised in the run-up to that Scottish Independence

referendum that the only way to protect Scotland's place

in the European Union was to vote to remain in the United Kingdom.

That has proven to be the biggest lie that has been told

in modern British political history.

Hundreds, if not thousands of people, now messaging me personally

in the last week alone, since the result,

to say that they want to change their vote.

They were staunch unionists, staunch No supporters,

and never would they have thought they would have switched their vote.

But now, because of what's happened, they would rather be independent

in Europe than be part of the United Kingdom outside of Europe.

The DUP's Christopher Stalford campaigned for a Leave vote

in the referendum.

He isn't convinced that the Scottish Government will call

a fresh independence poll.

I believe to a large extent the SNP are bluffing,

in terms of the sabre rattling that we have seen

coming from Nicola Sturgeon and others,

and if you look at her language very carefully,

what she has been saying is a referendum is on the table

or highly likely. She hasn't come straight out and called for one,

and I suspect the reason for that is she knows that if she were to come straight out

and call for one, there would be a very negative reaction

amongst the Scottish electorate.

The view from and about Scotland.

The former First Minister David Trimble was a supporter

of the Leave campaign. I asked him for his assessment

of Northern Ireland's future outside the EU.

The New Yorker magazine characterises the vote for Brexit

as a John Cleese figure stepping off the edge of a cliff.

Is Northern Ireland stepping off the edge of a cliff into the unknown?

I think there will be some volatility in the market,

there already has been.

I am sure that will steady down quite soon.

6-12 months from now, people will see that this is a good thing.

A good thing in what way for Northern Ireland,

which might end up, according to some commentators,

cut off from the Republic, its main trade partner,

and also perhaps in a couple of years' time, cut off from Scotland,

if it becomes independent.

There's a lot of exaggeration about this

and particularly about the single market.

It's best to be quite clear about this.

There will be, as a result of our leaving the European Union,

the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be

the European Union's border,

but that doesn't mean the South is cut off.

It does mean there will be tariffs on the border.

People keep talking about being cut off from the single market.

There's 150 countries in the world that are not part

of the European Union,

and none of them are cut off from the single market.

The consequence of not being part of the European Union

is that they have to pay the tariffs, but the tariffs are low.

Is Europe going to increase the tariffs? Not if they have any sense.

I know there are some people in the European Commission...

There is talk of punishing.

That is precisely what I was going to say.

Some people in the European Union, displaying their usual

level of judgment, by saying they are going to punish,

but you will notice what Angela Merkel says,

that it's time for them to behave in a grown-up way.

I think you'll find that our friends in Dublin will also be acting

in a grown-up way and be saying to Europe that what you should be doing

in this case is not increase your tariffs

but reduce your tariffs to increase trade.

But there's no indication that Ireland will be able to plead

a special relationship because of the land border.

I am not suggesting that they should.

In the long run, and by that I mean in the next couple of years,

Ireland will have a decision to take about its future relationships

and whether Europe is more important to it than the British market.

They followed us into the European Common Market, as it was.

Followed us, went in on the same day, because they knew they had

to go in with us so as not to find themselves disadvantaged.

But there is not even an argument in the Republic

about whether or not they should remain...

Wait and see.

Discussions are already, I think, taking place in government corridors

and we'll see what happens.

I am quite sure that our friends in Dublin will be thinking carefully

and there's also a wider question about the future

of the European Union, but that is another matter.

What about the concept of a hard border now between North and South?

It's pretty much an inevitability according to some commentators.

There will be identity checks, there will be customs checks,

which some people say, and Jonathan Powell,

the right-hand man of Tony Blair, says there will be a hard border

which will create difficulties in the relationship between North and South.

Jonathan should calm down

and have a look at the history of the matter from 1920 to 1972.

You might say there was a hard border - it wasn't very hard.

There is no desire that I know of, in either London or Dublin,

to change the common travel area.

The question is - what does Brussels do?

Here again, I think our friends in Dublin have to be reminding

the people in Brussels of the existence of a common travel area.

What about immigration?

Part of the Brexit argument was to control

the borders of the United Kingdom.

Will there be, at this hard border between North and South,

stricter immigration controls?

That's where you have some practical problems,

just as we have huge practical problems with the other borders

of the United Kingdom.

We only have effective controls at the major points of entry,

but you've got to cast your mind back to what things were like before 1972,

and I think some people just are exaggerating this,

and exaggerating this for a purpose.

They no longer have that purpose,

so you might find that commentary begins to calm down.

Scotland, the indications are that the Scottish Parliament

is going to enact legislation to have a second referendum on independence.

If Scotland becomes independent,

have we then effectively, in Northern Ireland,

become cut off from the Republic and from Scotland?

There's a lot of noise going on at the moment

and quite a lot of posturing.

The fact of the matter is that the Scottish people do not want another referendum -

we know that from opinion polls taken place after the last referendum.

That referendum was very scarring.

It was a hugely unpleasant experience

and there is no stomach for doing it again.

Whatever the leadership of the SNP may say,

they know that the economic proposals they put to the Scottish people in that referendum

have been blown out of the water completely by the changes

that have taken place, so what we are getting at the moment,

and this is my judgment on the matter, is that the leadership

of the SNP are talking this up

because they had talked it up beforehand, but they are actually

trying to construct processes that will give them excuses for inaction.

Lord Trimble. Let's talk to the current batch of decision takers

at Stormont and indeed at Westminster.

Ian Paisley is there for us. Ian Paisley, the Brexiteers are already

being accused of resiling from previous positions,

of doing U-turns, not going to give money we get back from Europe

to the NHS any more. Why should we believe that anyone

in Northern Ireland will benefit in terms of the money

that would have gone to the farmers, for example?

How can we be sure that any benefits will accrue to the people

of Northern Ireland as a result of this vote?

Good evening and thank you for having me on your programme.

I think there's a couple of key points that have to be made

in order to address that, and address that fairly.

In Northern Ireland we should be used to this.

We are now entering into a very important

and intensive phase of negotiations immediately after the most important

and revolutionary referendum that we've had in the United Kingdom.

And I think the revolution we're now into will open this negotiation

and allow us to claim back that money and to negotiate those deals.

But I would pose this question.

After 40 years, more than 40 years, of being a member of this

great panacea, this wonderful club,

of having all of the great experts of the world,

from presidents to bank chiefs, the elites,

telling the ordinary people of the United Kingdom

you'd better stick with this club,

the vast majority of the people in the United Kingdom,

of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, said, "We're leaving.

"We don't like this. It's not working."

I'm not sure you've answered the question as to whether or not

any money is going to come here.

The point is that... People are missing the key point here.

This is a revolution. The public have rejected Europe

and that means that everything is on the table and we can start to now

open up the option for negotiating how our money is better spent.

That means we have a blank page and that's a positive thing.

-Claire Hanna, are you reassured?

-No, I'm not.

We have been asking for months what the plan is post-Brexit.

There are clearly wasn't one and clearly we can't trust

the same people who have spoofed

on things like money for the NHS and on immigration,

and have been proven wrong already on all those things.

But what is clear is that Northern Ireland voted to stay

and we will be seeking to represent that, and we'll be using

whatever democratic method we can do to do that.

-We're not go to simply...

-The point is there aren't any.

There are, actually. There's a very long road to travel

before any Brexit is triggered.

There's no plan in London and we're not just going to allow

-Northern Ireland to wash along in its wake.

-That's not true.

You have to remember, we currently have probably the most

imaginative constitutional settlement in the world,

in that people could here can be British or Irish or both,

and that took creativity and solutions

and bringing a lot of people together for the ideas.

And we think there's a lot on the table, there are models out there.

Hold on, Ian Paisley, I will come back to you.

You'll have a perfectly good opportunity to reply.

John O'Dowd, all this talk about

we can delay it, we can do this... You can't.

Westminster will decide if and when

the United Kingdom pulls out of Europe.

This hasn't been a popular revolution,

as has been portrayed by Ian Paisley Jr.

It hasn't been a revolution in the style of the Tooting Popular Front.

It has been a fallout among Eton toffs, which has dragged

ordinary men and women across these islands into a dispute

which was not of their making, but they will pay the consequences.

You said it's the biggest social and economic shock since Partition.

-It is.

-It's a kind of a revolution, isn't it?

Well, there's been many revolutions down through history,

not all of them have been good revolutions.

Sometimes you need a counter-revolution

or a new revolution to bring the reality of the situation into focus.

The most worrying video which you have shown us tonight

was Theresa Villiers.

Theresa Villiers clearly doesn't have a clue

about the economic make-up of this island,

the social or cultural make-up of this island

and the history of this island.

And the best thing Theresa Villiers can do ahead of any negotiations

is go home.

I don't suspect the next one will be any better,

but after watching that tonight, Theresa Villiers needs to go home

and allow those who understand the make-up of this island

to get on with the negotiation because there will be a deal,

I've no doubt there will be a deal.

But what is a good deal to me

and to the people of the North and the people of Ireland is a totally

different deal to what would be good for Theresa Villiers and others.

And we have to ensure that the Dublin government,

local politicians, work out a deal which recognises

the political, social and economic history of this island

and protects the rights of everyone on the island.

Do you think, Mike Nesbitt, that an all-Ireland approach is required

to get the best deal for everyone in this place?

What I think, Noel, is that the result is a result

and it's now up to us as politicians to implement it.

But the surprising thing is that there is no plan.

The Northern Ireland executive doesn't have a plan,

the UK government doesn't have a plan, Europe doesn't have a plan.

And most shockingly of all,

those who led the Brexit campaign do not have a plan.

And that is why we have now entered

an era of uncertainty, which will last longer than the two years

that will follow the triggering of this Article 50.

And what we need is some certainty.

And those who masterminded Brexit

have to manage expectations because, as people have said,

people are expecting £350 million a week for the NHS.

That money doesn't exist...

And should never have been promised, according to Nigel Farage.

We were promised that there would be drastic action on immigration.

It's now clear from what Dan and Anne said

that's not going to happen either.

Coming the other way, Brussels are saying, "Get on with it.

"And, if you want to stay in the single market,

"you will do it on our terms, by our rules."

The three of you have said there's no plan.

Ian Paisley was saying all along there is. What is the plan?

I think, first of all, we have to...

we must address the denial that this has taken place.

And there's a denial that there's now going to be a consequence.

There is a consequence and the consequence is negotiations now.

On Monday, in the House, the Prime Minister outlined that he had

already established a working group within the Cabinet.

The first meeting of that working group has already taken place.

Indeed, parties like my own have already been approached

to make contact and to start putting the ideas on the table.

So if others are being left out or are excluding themselves

because they're not keeping up with what's happening in the class,

that's a matter for them.

So the plan is let's negotiate and see what happens.

-It's not much of a plan.

-I think, in all negotiations... Remember,

this is about our money and freeing our money so we don't have to

give it to Europe, and then wait for Europe to give some of it back

and then spend the rest the way they wish to spend it.

So we are working to make sure we can get that money spent on ourselves.

And out of that, Northern Ireland,

even by a minor calculation, using the Barnett formula alone,

will be almost £1 billion, almost £600 million,

better off a year, every year, going forward

from the day we actually release ourselves from Europe.

Let me bring in John O'Dowd on that important point.

I think those who support the Leave campaign should be careful with throwing out figures

because their figures have proven to be wrong.

If you start throwing out grandiose figures now,

they could be proved wrong in the future.

So let's approach it in a sensible, rational fashion.

Firstly, the Prime Minister is organising negotiations.

-There is no Prime Minister.

-There is a Prime Minister!

David Cameron stepped out of Downing Street on Friday morning

and announced he was standing down because he couldn't lead

the Brexit negotiations to leave

because he didn't... He didn't say these words,

but he doesn't have the control of the Conservative Party.

-You're in denial.

-Please let everyone else speak.

He doesn't have the control of the Conservative Party

and he doesn't have the backing of various regions

of what is referred to as the United Kingdom,

so there is no Prime Minister to lead negotiations.

What we have to do and ensure is that the rights of entitlement

of the people on this island, in the North, who voted against the Leave,

they voted to Remain, are protected.

Those aren't different from the rights of the people in the North of England or Scotland or Wales.

They are in a geographical and political sense.

We are the only part of these islands

with a boarder now with the EU.

That has a reality for those people you were speaking to

in South Armagh and South Down

and it will have a reality for us all across these islands,

so we have to deal with that.

We are the only people who have a contested part -

well, Scotland is certainly entering that territory, which is protected

under an international agreement known as the Good Friday Agreement.

So all those things have to be taken into account and they have to

be dealt with, and our rights and entitlements have to be supported.

In what way, Mike Nesbitt, might that led to

some kind of different deal for the people of Northern Ireland?

-I don't know the answer to that.

-Would you like to see one?

-I would like...

-A special deal.

I'd like the Brexiteers to tell us what the plan is.

Now, I've said I accept the result.

I also think it would be a very foolish unionist who did not

acknowledge the two component parts to the United Kingdom -

Scotland and Northern Ireland - had majorities voting to remain.

I am amazed the Secretary of State is not aware

that there are nationalists who, over the last few years, were

content to live in Northern Ireland, within the United Kingdom,

because we were also in Europe

and part of their identity

was their ability to express their Europeanness.

For them, this has changed everything

and Unionists need to listen to them and be empathetic to them

because this is potentially a nationalist Anglo-Irish agreement,

where people from outside have come in

and impose something against their will.

Let me ask Claire Hanna for a nationalist view on that.

The point is, yes, it's not just a nationalist view to say

people here know better for people here and not people in England.

That's not just a nationalist view,

that is the whole purpose of devolution.

The DUP can't keep picking and choosing which majorities they'll go far.

They don't agree... The whole of the UK agrees...

supports equal marriage and they won't have that in here.

The whole of the UK flies our flag, they won't have that here.

And it took them decades to accept the Good Friday Agreement.

It's no wonder they don't like Europe -

that was about pooling your ideas and your resources and your power

to get a better deal for everyone and they threw that away.

But that included the principle of consent.

And consent has not been given

to change the constitutional status

or to change the status of us being in Europe.

So there are options, and we need to not just wash along, as I say,

we need to do what Nicola Sturgeon is doing and she's going there,

she's negotiating. We need to be in Dublin, we need to be in Brussels

and we need to be having those conversations.

And we need to be having them as well. There's no more money.

The fiscal tightening that's coming in the autumn budget,

there's no more money coming from there.

Ian Paisley, will you be dealing directly with Dublin to figure out

the best way to help the majority of people in this island?

Again, I'm not the one in denial.

I believe that a good negotiation is a listening negotiation

as well as a talking negotiation.

Of course we will be making the points already

to Her Majesty's Government,

these are the issues that will affect this part

of the United Kingdom, these are the issues which must be addressed.

And in order to form a complete picture of that,

of course there must be good, responsive,

cooperative discussions with the Irish government

and between the devolved Assembly and the Irish government.

It's important that all the people around the table -

that'll include Sinn Fein the SDLP, and the Ulster Unionists,

if they all want to be there -

that they make those points and feed into that

because that Cabinet working group will be more than just

a Conservative Party working group.

We've got to address these points.

I really don't mind what the machinations are

within the Conservative Party.

But I was part of a national movement

that was led by people like Gisele Stuart,

hardly an Eton toff, Kate Hoey, hardly an Eton toff,

people who were making key points and saying, you know,

the little person in the United Kingdom is left out by this entire agreement.

They want to have a new beginning and a better start for the UK

and that's what we're doing,

and I don't ignore the fact that there were more people

in Northern Ireland voted to remain than there were to leave.

But I also recognise the fact that in my constituency,

in Mike's constituency in South Antrim, across Northern Ireland,

the vast majority in those areas said, "We want to leave."

We must make sure that that balance is brought to bear.

Let's get everyone else in, if I may.

John O'Dowd, talk of border pollers -

distracting and nonsensical, isn't it?

No, because when we have a constitutional crisis,

as has been landed upon us by the Brexit vote,

then we will always put forward

that a united Ireland is the most sensible alternative moving forward.

As an Irish republican, I reserve that right on any occasion

to demand a border poll.

I believe that the social economic destiny of this island

is within the reunification of Ireland.

But you that know a border poll would not win.

No, I don't know that.

Those who put that back to me say it is not going to win.

I put the challenge out to them - let's have one.

Let's have a sensible, mature debate.

Let's have an economic debate on it.

I have always believed in Irish unity and probably believe in it

even more now, but it still has to be agreed and planned and we have

just seen what a leap into the dark is in a referendum that

doesn't have a clear question.

We have just seen the passions that is arises in people, so it would be

unstable and it would be lost.

But I think it is important to say, fundamentally,

the relationship between a lot of moderate nationalists

and the UK has been altered and that needs to be taken into account.

Do you fear Brexit might change the result of a border poll?

The law says the Secretary of State can only call it

if she believes there is a likelihood that there'll be a

change in the constitutional status -

there is no evidence for that.

I think if she called it, she would find herself in front of the court

with a judicial review.

What we really want to know is who will guarantee that

nobody in Northern Ireland, no individual, no farmer,

no voluntary or community sector group, no university

is going to be worse off after we are out of Europe

and we don't have the money.

Thank you all very much indeed.

One unfortunate outcome of Thursday's vote - a reported

outbreak of racist intimidation across the UK.

Families here too have spoken of unpleasant confrontations.

Stephen Dempster met with one Polish family at worship in East Belfast,

the only constituency in the city to vote Leave.

Sunday morning, east Belfast -

a protestant, unionist heartland,

and members of the Polish community are gathered for a Catholic

mass at St Anthony's church on the Woodstock Road.

SPEAKS POLISH

The decision to leave the EU is now testing this immigrant

community's faith that it has a future in this part of the UK.

I have a business in here the last four years and I don't think it

will change much for the next couple of years,

but I can't even imagine to pack myself and back to Poland.

There's nothing in there for me. I left everything.

Now I'm just thinking about this very quietly

and I hope everything will be fine.

I feel like Northern Ireland, Belfast, is my home.

The Polish community is the largest group of foreign nationals here,

believed to be well over 20,000 people.

Daniel and Dorothy Konieczny have lived in Northern Ireland

since 2004.

The majority of their friends are Northern Irish.

I like people from here, they are more friendly,

I would say, they're more helpful.

It doesn't matter if it's an old person or a young person.

When I came here and I was walking through the streets,

everyone was like, "All right, all right, mate?"

Yes, people are very friendly here.

Two best mans were local people in our wedding.

The Father, the Son and Holy Spirit. Amen.

They feel a genuine sense of commitment to Northern Ireland.

There is a moment when you just realise,

it's not any more home as Poland, it is home in Belfast.

It's like that's the switch in your mind

and then you know your home is here, basically, yes.

Now that the UK is to quit the EU,

they're uncertain what the future holds for them

and their five-year-old daughter, Emily, who was born here.

What happens to EU nationals has not yet been decided by government.

I feel that we don't know what is our position now. We are confused.

We don't know what actual rights we are going to have.

We don't know what we can do.

Immigration played a crucial role in the vote.

Those who fear the impact of foreign nationals on public services

and jobs welcomed the promise of border controls.

Daniel moved here when a recruitment agency in Poland came

looking for him because a factory in Lisburn needed workers.

And now he and Dorothy run several businesses,

contributing to the NI economy and employing 11 people.

I don't feel comfortable when they say we are stealing their jobs

because everyone has the same opportunity to go

and find a job, to start working.

I am cross with someone who would say, "Oh, you are Polish,

"or you from there, and you are stealing our opportunity to work."

I know not all the people is going to be looking this way.

Most of the people they will treat us as usual.

I felt unwelcome in 2004 because that was a big thing,

throwing all that... A bit racist.

There's more integration now than it was

whenever we came here, basically, but raising the issue,

saying, "Immigrants", and, "We don't need them",

and all that stuff, it's quite challenging.

Like everyone else, the Konieczny family now face an uncertain

wait to see how the post-Brexit world takes shape.

Let's see if we can sum it up with our next guests, Fintan O'Toole

of the Irish Times and the commentator Alex Kane.

Fintan O'Toole, you have said the Brexit vote put a bomb

under the peace process.

Was that something you write that in the heat of the moment?

No, people argue about the language

but this is the most scandalously reckless political movement

that we have seen in our lifetimes in a democratic society.

Anybody watching the debate, as it unfolded in the UK as a whole,

would have been struck by the degree

to which Northern Ireland didn't matter.

There are four really serious things

happening to Northern Ireland -

one is that there is a hard border.

This fantasy somehow that you can both have immigration control

and an open border between the United Kingdom and the EU,

it just doesn't stand up for a moment.

The only chance that it is not going to happen is that the Leave

campaigners were lying about that as much as they were

lying about everything else, which is a possibility

because this was one of the most mendacious campaigns

we've ever seen.

This was a core issue for them and the whole momentum in British

politics is towards control of immigration.

You cannot control immigration without a hard border.

The second thing is that the UK breaking up,

they didn't care about that.

The third thing is that there is a rise of English nationalism

which people are not paying attention to.

This is English nationalism.

Do you really think that the new ruling class in England,

which is willing to get rid of Scotland,

didn't care enough about Scotland to leave it go, is going

to care enough about Northern Ireland to put all of this

money that is being taken out from the EU back into Northern Ireland?

They do not care and they made it very clear they don't care.

The final point is that all of this is going to happen

in an economic crisis.

The economic cost of this, at the very least in the short-term,

is pretty catastrophic.

You agree it is a revolution,

but a revolution of the patronised and ignored in your view?

It is. I think there is a hard-core of English working class,

particularly on the sink estates, who have believed in the past 30,

40 years, that they have been ignored.

They have no confidence in Labour or Conservative.

They don't see either of those parties as representing them.

I'm not even sure they see a party like Ukip or the

English Defence League as representing them.

They got it into their heads, and it came through Ukip,

they got it into their heads they could hurt the establishment

and they decided to do that.

In terms of what Fintan was talking about,

the only other referendum I remember in detail

was the Good Friday Agreement.

I remember on the day the count came in, May 1998,

talking and interviewing leading figures from both the Yes and No

campaigns, asking them what they thought Northern Ireland

would look like in ten or 20 years' time.

Looking back over those notes in the past couple of days,

they were mostly wrong on every single issue.

I just think, at this stage in Northern Ireland and

everyone across the United Kingdom, were in the shock phase.

No-one expected this result.

Fintan is right, nobody had anything.

He is completely right. It was lie upon lie from both sides.

In the longer term , you have written that you don't believe

Northern Ireland can be sustained in its current position outside the EU?

I am not happy about that, I'm not advocating this,

but I think if you look at it objectively, where are we heading?

We're heading towards an English national state.

The genie that's been let out of the bottle is English nationalism

and it's proved to be a much more powerful force

than anybody suspected.

Its logic is the break-up of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland

as an appendage of an English national state,

which is governed by English nationalism, is not interested

in Northern Ireland, not interested in Scotland,

not interested in the European Union is not sustainable.

This is why the whole architecture of the peace process is

really being very deeply undermined.

We are going to have to think very carefully about what the future

is and I don't think this is something we panic about, or it's

an excuse for anybody to go back to any kind of violence, but we have to

think about one of the relationships in this new world between

Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

It may well be that those entities have to start thinking about very

close relationships within the European Union.

That may be something that none of us ever thought about.

The real problem here is, if you think about the Scottish

referendum, the independence referendum, the SNP,

whether you agree Scottish independence or not,

they produced a 650-page document on what the future

was as they proposed it.

These people, this reckless ruling class, hasn't even got the

back of a cigarette packet and they are creating anarchy.

You can see at the moment that you have no effective government in

England, no effective opposition and nobody knows where this will all go.

I would predict that this is not over,

that this question will be reopened, because it will have to be.

Oddly enough, I am not that pessimistic.

I think what will happen is I agree there is an English

nationalism that has been awakened,

but they are not going to be represented in the next Parliament.

I think there will be an early election and I think it will be

Conservatives and Labour. Very few Ukip will make the breakthrough.

-It is not Ukip! It is the Tories, the government!

-I don't think...

What about Ireland, as it's been suggested,

thinking about its position in the EU?

Ireland will have to think, but one thing that is crucial in all of

this, that triangle - London, Dublin, Belfast triangle - matters.

I think Brussels will give them a fairly easy ride.

Some people believe the peace process is in trouble.

They will go out of their way... And going back to that 1998 point again,

so many things I was told. You have been there.

We're told it could never happen, would never happen,

were not possible, miraculously to save something,

they all become possible.

Everyone is gloomy at the moment - I can understand that.

-It is not as bad as it looks.

-Gentleman, thank you both very much.

One thing we can be sure of, there'll be lots more drama in the

next days, weeks and years.

From all on the Spotlight team, a very good night.