08/12/2013 Sunday Politics East Midlands


08/12/2013

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday

:00:40.:00:46.

morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%

:00:47.:00:51.

pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who

:00:52.:00:57.

credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine

:00:58.:01:02.

tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?

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Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed

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Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will

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be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by

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In the East Midlands, does the recovery mean it will be a happy New

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Year for the economy? had on the capital, its politics and

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those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal

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students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all

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we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be

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glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we

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are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet

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something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,

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Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,

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the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,

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thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.

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The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's

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Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity

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to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in

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the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a

:02:44.:02:52.

moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these

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statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than

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everyone predicted. This time, he can stand up and say the economy is

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better than everybody predicted. A lot better.

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Britain is currently growing faster than any other major advanced

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economy. Faster than France, which is contracting, faster than Germany,

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faster even than America. At this Autumn Statement last year, there

:03:23.:03:25.

were repeated predictions that borrowing would go up. Instead,

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borrowing is down, and down significantly more than forecast.

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But George Osborne said the good numbers still mean more tough

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decisions. We will not give up in giving in our country's debts. We

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will not spend the money from lower borrowing. We will not squander the

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harder and games of the British people. -- hard earned gains. In

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other news, further cuts to government departments. The state

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pension age will increase in the 2040s, affecting people in their 40s

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now. There were some goodies, like discounted business rates for small

:04:06.:04:10.

businesses, free school meals for infants, favoured by the Lib Dems,

:04:11.:04:14.

and those marriage tax breaks below that by the Tories. But, as with all

:04:15.:04:18.

big fiscal events, it takes a while for the details to sink in.

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The marriage tax allowance is a long-standing commitment that he

:04:23.:04:28.

could not abandon. It does help those families were only one goes

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out to work. It does not go to higher rate taxpayers, I don't

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think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I

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am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There

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is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday

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Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?

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In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a

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red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more

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than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying

:05:11.:05:15.

about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in

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terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting

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the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was

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very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last

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time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by

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now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to

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hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are

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significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be

:05:53.:05:55.

just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also

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worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been

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revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of

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budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very

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much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that

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it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the

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years after the next general election. As the day draws to a

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close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the

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graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it

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gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday

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Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.

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Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed

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Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a

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consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At

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the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first

:07:05.:07:08.

time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the

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baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,

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nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by

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Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview

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this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate

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Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang

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onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories

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hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at

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someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that

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doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people

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thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the

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main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he

:08:01.:08:06.

can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it

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were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John

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Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a

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good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because

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he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's

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much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told

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he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,

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to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,

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after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.

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Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the

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referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the

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press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following

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the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one

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interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano

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recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after

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your job. How bad was his performance on Thursday? Here is the

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Shadow Chancellor in action. The Chancellor is incomplete denial

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about the central facts that are defining this government in office.

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He used to say he would balance the books in 2015. Now he wants us to

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congratulate him for saying he will do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this

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government, it is clearly not just the badgers that move the goalposts.

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No mention of the universal credit in the statement. IDS, in deep

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shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the

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Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy, in other words. Why do more and more

:10:11.:10:18.

of your Labour colleagues think that your boss is below the water line?

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I'm not sure I accept the premise of your suggestion. I don't think my

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colleagues believe that George Osborne has a superior argument. I

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think Ed Balls will certainly trying his best, loud and clear, to make

:10:33.:10:36.

the case there is a cost of living crisis in this country and the

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Chancellor doesn't understand this. That was essentially the heat of the

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debate on the Autumn Statement day. One leading Labour MPs said to me

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that Ed Balls is always looking back, fixated with the rear-view

:10:49.:10:52.

mirror, that was the exact quote. A Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has

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a strong argument to make, unfortunately it was not made well

:10:57.:11:02.

in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor

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performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four

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letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former

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Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public

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spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a

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battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple

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were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's

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fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,

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nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We

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have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of

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evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was

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making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not

:12:05.:12:08.

have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are

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concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are

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getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn

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Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very

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big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is

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setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.

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What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of

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measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If

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you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to

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get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of

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doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's

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investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our

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economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen

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a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.

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Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.

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That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above

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all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing

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to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare

:13:31.:13:36.

cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.

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You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,

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correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are

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going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not

:13:51.:13:54.

include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare

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cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not

:14:01.:14:04.

in the short-term plan because, as we believe, a triple lock is a good

:14:05.:14:10.

idea. In the longer term, if you are talking about structural welfare

:14:11.:14:13.

issues, you do have to think about pensions because they have to be

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sustainable if we are living longer. I think that is about the

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careful management. Let me show you what Ed Balls said on this programme

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at the start of the summer. As for pensioners, I think this is a real

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question. George Osborne is going to announce his cap in two weeks time.

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I don't know if he will exclude pension spending or including. Our

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plan is to include it. Pension spending would be included in the

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welfare cap? That is our plan, exactly what I just said. Over the

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long-term, if you have a serious welfare cap structural welfare

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issues, over 20, 30, 40 year period, you can't say that we will

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not work and pensions as part of that. Pensions would be part of the

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Labour cap? In the longer term. What is the longer term? If you win 2015?

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We want to stick with the triple lock on the pension, that is the

:15:12.:15:14.

Government approach to their short-term welfare cap. In the

:15:15.:15:18.

longer term, for example, on the winter fuel allowance, we should not

:15:19.:15:24.

necessarily be... There are lots of benefits... I understand that, I am

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talking about the basic state pension, is that part of your

:15:29.:15:33.

welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40 year frame... Even you will not be

:15:34.:15:43.

around in government, then. You are writing me off already. You have to

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focus on welfare changes, pensions have to be affordable as part of

:15:49.:15:51.

that. It's dangerous to say, well, if you are going to have a serious

:15:52.:15:56.

welfare cap, we should not look at pensions cost. It would be

:15:57.:16:01.

irresponsible. Will pensions be part of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if

:16:02.:16:07.

Labour is in power? In our long-term cap we have to make sure... I'm

:16:08.:16:15.

talking about 2015-16. We haven't seen the proposition the Government

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has put before us. You claim people of ?1600 worse off

:16:18.:16:30.

under the coalition. That is true when you compare to pay and prices.

:16:31.:16:35.

Can you confirm that calculation does not include the ?700 tax cut

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from raising the income tax threshold, huge savings on mortgages

:16:41.:16:45.

because of low interest or the freezing of council tax? It doesn't

:16:46.:16:49.

include the tax and benefit changes. If you do want to look at

:16:50.:16:54.

those, last year, the ISS said they could be making people worse off. It

:16:55.:17:01.

might not include those factors. The VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child

:17:02.:17:10.

benefit cuts, they all add up. My understanding is that the ISS

:17:11.:17:14.

figures have said people are ?891 worse off if you look at the tax and

:17:15.:17:20.

benefit changes since 2010. You have to look at wages and prices. The ISS

:17:21.:17:26.

confirmed our approach was broadly the right way of assessing what is

:17:27.:17:30.

happening. The Chancellor was saying, real household disposable

:17:31.:17:37.

incomes are rising. He is completely out of touch. Can you sum up the

:17:38.:17:43.

macro economic policy for Labour? Invest in the future, make sure we

:17:44.:17:48.

have the right approach for the long-term politicking. Tackle the

:17:49.:17:51.

cost of living crisis people are facing.

:17:52.:17:54.

Now, let's talk to the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid

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Javid. Discovery, underpinned by rising

:18:01.:18:07.

house prices, increasing personal debt, do you accept that is

:18:08.:18:12.

unsustainable? I accept the OBE are also said the

:18:13.:18:17.

reason why this country is facing more these challenges -- OBR.

:18:18.:18:26.

That is because we went through a Labour recession, the worst we have

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seen in 100 years. But do you accept that a recovery underpinned by these

:18:33.:18:38.

things I have just read out isn't sustainable? We set out a long-term

:18:39.:18:43.

plan for recovery, and again this week. We have shown with the tough

:18:44.:18:49.

decisions we have made already, the country can enjoy a recovery. There

:18:50.:18:53.

are still a lot of difficult decisions. The biggest risk are

:18:54.:18:59.

Labour's plans. The March projections work at for those -- for

:19:00.:19:08.

both business investment and exports. Suddenly it is expected to

:19:09.:19:14.

rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround in investment. How is it credible? I

:19:15.:19:19.

have been in business before politics. Any business person

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listening will know, when you have gone through a recession, the

:19:24.:19:29.

deepest in 100 years, it will hit investment, profits, you can't make

:19:30.:19:34.

plans again until you have confidence in the economy. That is

:19:35.:19:37.

what this country is seeing now under this government. This is an

:19:38.:19:47.

assumption made independently. The fall in business investment is

:19:48.:19:52.

because of the recession. The forecast increases, 5% next year,

:19:53.:19:58.

and so on, it is based on the independent forecast. Based on fact.

:19:59.:20:04.

If you look at the investment plans of companies, this week, the

:20:05.:20:13.

Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land Rover has plans to create more

:20:14.:20:17.

jobs, these investment plans are coming through now because of the

:20:18.:20:22.

confidence generated by this government, such as the cut in

:20:23.:20:25.

corporation tax which Labour would increase. Are the export forecasts

:20:26.:20:33.

more credible? The 15 years, our share of world trade decline.

:20:34.:20:39.

Suddenly starting next year, it stops falling. That's not credible.

:20:40.:20:45.

I worked in finance the 20 years. I have yet to find any forecast which

:20:46.:20:53.

is fully right. Under Labour, we would have forecasts made by Gordon

:20:54.:20:58.

Brown who would announce he would hit all his targets. Now we have an

:20:59.:21:02.

independent system. Do you accept, if exports or

:21:03.:21:10.

business investment do not pick up, then a purely consumer led recovery

:21:11.:21:15.

is not sustainable? We need more than a consumer led recovery. We

:21:16.:21:19.

need consumer investment to go up. On Xbox, it is noticeable that

:21:20.:21:26.

experts are primarily down because the markets we trade with, the

:21:27.:21:31.

eurozone markets, are depressed. Many have just come out of

:21:32.:21:35.

recession. Or they are still in recession. If you look at exports to

:21:36.:21:43.

non-EU countries, they are up 30%. 120% to China. 100% to Russia.

:21:44.:21:50.

Will you keep the triple lock for the state pension beyond 2015? Yes,

:21:51.:21:58.

long term. That's why it is not part of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie

:21:59.:22:02.

cannot answer that question. It is straightforward.

:22:03.:22:11.

House prices are now rising ten times faster than average earnings.

:22:12.:22:17.

That's not good. House prices are rising, partly reflecting recovery.

:22:18.:22:23.

Ten times faster than average earnings, how can people afford to

:22:24.:22:27.

buy homes if it carries on? What you would hope, this is the evidence, if

:22:28.:22:32.

you look at the plans of the month companies, they are planning new

:22:33.:22:39.

homes which will mean that, as this demand spurs that investment, more

:22:40.:22:43.

homes will come about. We need to give people the means to buy those

:22:44.:22:47.

homes. We have introduced the help to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says

:22:48.:23:35.

it will start rising again but as household debt rises again Petr Cech

:23:36.:23:51.

reduces, -- as household debt reduces, we need to make sure there

:23:52.:23:56.

are checks in place. Wages have not been rising in real terms for quite

:23:57.:24:01.

some time. Over the next five years, even as the economy grows, by about

:24:02.:24:16.

15% according the OBR to the OBR -- but people will not benefit. These

:24:17.:24:22.

hard-working families will not share in the recovery. What is the best

:24:23.:24:28.

way to help those families? The government doesn't set wages. What

:24:29.:24:33.

we can do is influence the overall economy. We don't have a magic

:24:34.:24:42.

lever. Wages have been stagnating for five years. When will people get

:24:43.:24:46.

a proper salary? The best way for wage growth is a growing economy,

:24:47.:24:53.

more jobs. We have more people employed in Britain today than at

:24:54.:24:58.

any time in our history. The biggest risk to recovery is if we let Labour

:24:59.:25:04.

into the Treasury with more spending and more debt. Which got us into

:25:05.:25:07.

this trouble. By whatever measure you care to choose, would people be

:25:08.:25:15.

better off come the 20 15th election than they were in 2010? Yes, they

:25:16.:25:22.

will be. Look at jobs. Already more people employed than at any other

:25:23.:25:27.

time in history. Will they be better off? The best way for anyone to

:25:28.:25:31.

raise their living standards is access to a growing job market. But

:25:32.:25:38.

will they be better off? I believe people will be. Compared to 2010.

:25:39.:25:46.

Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This is a credible measure.

:25:47.:25:49.

Now, what do you think the Education Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at

:25:50.:25:54.

school? Hard-working? Hand always up? Top of the class? Well, if he

:25:55.:25:57.

wasn't passionate about education then, he is now. In fact, since he

:25:58.:26:01.

took office, it seems he hasn't stopped working very hard indeed.

:26:02.:26:08.

When the coalition came to power, Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they

:26:09.:26:11.

were on a long march to reform education. Just like Mao, they faced

:26:12.:26:15.

a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion for new school places. They extended

:26:16.:26:21.

Labour's academy programme. There's now about 3,000 in England. But

:26:22.:26:25.

then, they marched even further, creating free schools run by

:26:26.:26:28.

parents, funded by taxpayers. 174 have opened so far. The schools

:26:29.:26:35.

admission code was changed, to give parents more choice.

:26:36.:26:38.

And a pupil premium was introduced, currently, an extra ?900 funding for

:26:39.:26:41.

each disadvantaged child. An overhaul of the national

:26:42.:26:46.

curriculum provoked criticism. Chairman Gove mocked detractors as

:26:47.:26:50.

"bad academia". But exam reforms didn't quite go to plan. Although

:26:51.:26:56.

GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.

:26:57.:27:00.

Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the

:27:01.:27:05.

classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up

:27:06.:27:09.

to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of

:27:10.:27:11.

Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.

:27:12.:27:17.

Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even

:27:18.:27:22.

allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are

:27:23.:27:27.

stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the

:27:28.:27:32.

system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we

:27:33.:27:43.

changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,

:27:44.:27:49.

satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and

:27:50.:27:52.

schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing

:27:53.:27:55.

gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the

:27:56.:28:00.

OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a

:28:01.:28:07.

minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or

:28:08.:28:12.

even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our

:28:13.:28:17.

domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece

:28:18.:28:22.

of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there

:28:23.:28:26.

a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak

:28:27.:28:32.

as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is

:28:33.:28:37.

actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is

:28:38.:28:47.

about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists

:28:48.:28:52.

conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things

:28:53.:28:57.

are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters

:28:58.:29:01.

were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th

:29:02.:29:10.

for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,

:29:11.:29:16.

Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or

:29:17.:29:21.

outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this

:29:22.:29:26.

level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last

:29:27.:29:28.

years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,

:29:29.:29:35.

absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.

:29:36.:29:41.

Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is

:29:42.:29:44.

making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually

:29:45.:29:45.

translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much

:29:46.:29:56.

up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good

:29:57.:30:00.

enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in

:30:01.:30:06.

GCSE and grade 2. We have to make sure that is maintained. The

:30:07.:30:10.

Government has based its reforms on similar reforms in Sweden. In

:30:11.:30:14.

opposition they were endlessly going to Stockholm to find out how it was

:30:15.:30:18.

done. Swedish schools are doing even worse than ours in the tables. Why

:30:19.:30:25.

are we copying failure? The secretary of state believes, and I

:30:26.:30:30.

actually believe, as somebody who has come from an academy model, that

:30:31.:30:35.

if you hand power and resources, you hand autonomy to the people on the

:30:36.:30:38.

ground, to the people in the classroom, in the corridors, in the

:30:39.:30:43.

playgrounds, things work. If you allow the great monoliths that used

:30:44.:30:48.

to have responsibility for education in the past to take control again,

:30:49.:30:53.

you will see a reverse in standards. You have got to actually empower

:30:54.:30:56.

those people that make the difference. That is why autonomy and

:30:57.:31:01.

freedom is important. We spent a lot of money moving what were local

:31:02.:31:04.

authority schools to become academies and new free school czar

:31:05.:31:08.

being set up as well. When the academies are pretty much the same

:31:09.:31:12.

level of autonomy, the free school is maybe a little bit more, the

:31:13.:31:16.

evidence we have had so far is that they don't really perform any better

:31:17.:31:20.

than local authority schools? Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they

:31:21.:31:26.

might even be doing worse? These are early days. We will say more about

:31:27.:31:29.

this on weapons they when we produce the annual report. The sponsored

:31:30.:31:33.

academies that took over the worst schools in the country, in the most

:31:34.:31:37.

difficult circumstances, in the most disadvantaged communities, are doing

:31:38.:31:43.

much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the

:31:44.:31:50.

lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better

:31:51.:31:55.

than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the

:31:56.:32:00.

world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming

:32:01.:32:10.

to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they

:32:11.:32:13.

spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as

:32:14.:32:18.

possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with

:32:19.:32:24.

those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a

:32:25.:32:28.

European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of

:32:29.:32:31.

the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn

:32:32.:32:36.

from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest

:32:37.:32:40.

in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have

:32:41.:32:46.

the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the

:32:47.:32:51.

classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,

:32:52.:32:54.

disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers

:32:55.:33:02.

doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from

:33:03.:33:06.

that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government

:33:07.:33:09.

education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am

:33:10.:33:14.

independent, Ofsted is independent. I believe we are saying the right

:33:15.:33:20.

things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you

:33:21.:33:24.

are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.

:33:25.:33:28.

Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a

:33:29.:33:32.

pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become

:33:33.:33:37.

better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going

:33:38.:33:43.

to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do

:33:44.:33:46.

better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will

:33:47.:33:50.

also challenge government when we think they are going wrong. Many

:33:51.:33:54.

people in the education establishment think your primary

:33:55.:33:57.

purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into

:33:58.:34:04.

becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of

:34:05.:34:09.

academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are

:34:10.:34:12.

the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I

:34:13.:34:16.

am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see

:34:17.:34:24.

academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The

:34:25.:34:30.

study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise

:34:31.:34:36.

standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school

:34:37.:34:39.

leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody

:34:40.:34:43.

with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot

:34:44.:34:48.

air has been expounded on the issue of whether teachers should be

:34:49.:34:51.

qualified or not. If qualified teacher status was the gold

:34:52.:34:54.

standard, why is it that one in three teachers, one in three lessons

:34:55.:35:03.

that will observe are not good enough. Taught by qualified

:35:04.:35:07.

teachers. I've not yet met a headteacher that has not appointed

:35:08.:35:11.

by qualified staff when they cannot get qualified teachers. Their job is

:35:12.:35:15.

to make sure they get accredited as soon as possible and come up to

:35:16.:35:19.

scratch in the classroom. Do you support the use of unqualified

:35:20.:35:24.

teachers? I do. I have done it. If I could not get a maths, physics or

:35:25.:35:28.

modern languages teacher and I thought somebody straight from

:35:29.:35:30.

university, without qualified teachers start this, that they could

:35:31.:35:33.

communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the

:35:34.:35:37.

classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are

:35:38.:35:42.

going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to

:35:43.:35:45.

local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...

:35:46.:35:51.

New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.

:35:52.:35:55.

Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been

:35:56.:36:03.

examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and

:36:04.:36:07.

children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the

:36:08.:36:11.

secretary of state and it is something I will talk more about

:36:12.:36:14.

over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a

:36:15.:36:17.

school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new

:36:18.:36:22.

category, Her Majesty 's inspectors stay with that institution until it

:36:23.:36:27.

improves. Sometimes we don't see a school for five or seven years. That

:36:28.:36:32.

is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted should pay a much greater part in

:36:33.:36:35.

monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.

:36:36.:36:40.

Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a

:36:41.:36:46.

tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.

:36:47.:36:52.

You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,

:36:53.:36:56.

Diane Abbott will be joining us. And we

:36:57.:37:13.

Will it be a Merry Christmas or are hundreds facing a cold winter at

:37:14.:37:21.

food banks? We hear from a businessman. We are taking our

:37:22.:37:29.

employees from 75 to 180, we are on course for our plan regardless of

:37:30.:37:32.

the 0 course for our plan regardless of

:37:33.:37:34.

the recession. Who is making their shopping is Fairtrade? It is not

:37:35.:37:40.

expensive than normal products. I would if it was cheaper. I believe

:37:41.:37:44.

in helping third 0 would if it was cheaper. I believe

:37:45.:37:46.

in helping third World countries and supporting local communities. Hello,

:37:47.:37:50.

I'm Marie Ashby and my guests today are two of the region's most high

:37:51.:37:53.

profile MPs. Anna Soubry is the Conservative MP for Broxtowe and a

:37:54.:37:56.

defence minister and the Nottingham East MP, Chris Leslie, who's

:37:57.:38:00.

Labour's shadow Treasury spokesman. Well, we're all winding down for

:38:01.:38:04.

Christmas and for our MPs, not long to go. You break up a week on

:38:05.:38:08.

Friday. And next year you've only got 145 days in the House of

:38:09.:38:15.

Commons. Sitting days. We feel strongly about this. We work all of

:38:16.:38:24.

the time. I work seven days a week. I am sure that Chris does. It is a

:38:25.:38:29.

great myth that if the house isn't sitting, we are not working.

:38:30.:38:34.

Tomorrow I was meant to be doing defence questions but the house is

:38:35.:38:40.

sitting to pay tribute to Nelson Mandela. We have this flexibility

:38:41.:38:45.

and early on Chris said we will be re`called in the summer. It used to

:38:46.:38:51.

be the case when there was not so much scrutiny that some MPs would go

:38:52.:38:56.

to the Bahamas for a month. Nowadays, especially with smart

:38:57.:39:01.

technology, people can drop as e`mails all of the time. And we see

:39:02.:39:07.

it in real`time. Even though Parliament will not be sitting over

:39:08.:39:11.

Christmas, we are going through the e`mails, up cases. So, what will you

:39:12.:39:24.

be doing? Constituency work. It is a combination, some of it is not as

:39:25.:39:30.

great as other bits. There are parts of the constituency work which I

:39:31.:39:34.

enjoy doing, casework getting results. It is so rewarding and it

:39:35.:39:42.

is fantastic. On the frontbenchers, we have this battle of ideas which

:39:43.:39:49.

never stops. We are on duty rotor through the holiday season. Margaret

:39:50.:39:55.

Beckett told us it was the lightest schedule she has seen for

:39:56.:40:00.

legislation. That is different. This is the first five`year parliament we

:40:01.:40:05.

have had, I do not think the government have brought enough

:40:06.:40:10.

legislation forward. More marginal deceit, it tends to be the more

:40:11.:40:17.

stuff you get which means the more work `` marginal the seat. The

:40:18.:40:22.

workload is not the same in the marginals. Chris has more experience

:40:23.:40:31.

of Parliament than I do but the number of e`mails is phenomenal. I

:40:32.:40:37.

get the picture that 0 number of e`mails is phenomenal. I

:40:38.:40:38.

get the picture that you are 0 number of e`mails is phenomenal. I

:40:39.:40:38.

get the picture that you are working hard. It is one of the big set

:40:39.:40:49.

pieces of the Autumn statement. And George Osborne used it to paint a

:40:50.:40:52.

rosy picture of the economy, with growth forecasts up and borrowing

:40:53.:40:55.

coming down. But Labour says ordinary people aren't benefiting

:40:56.:40:58.

from any growth. So how does it feel for those on different sides of the

:40:59.:41:02.

economic divide here in the East Midlands?

:41:03.:41:07.

Will it be a Merry Christmas and happy New Year when it comes to jobs

:41:08.:41:10.

and prosperity, one Derbyshire business think so. They are moving

:41:11.:41:16.

to new purpose`built premises and looking to take on workers. The

:41:17.:41:20.

company makes carbon fibre parts for the car industry, we spoke to the

:41:21.:41:26.

owner this time last year and he was pessimistic about the outlook but

:41:27.:41:30.

now he is looking forward to expanding. We have a 6`5p project, a

:41:31.:41:40.

loan from a lending fund and we are paying interest and alone will be

:41:41.:41:44.

spun back into the economy and the council can find reinvestment. We

:41:45.:41:52.

will spend the money on planting equipment and upscaling. The order

:41:53.:41:56.

but is there, we have 0 equipment and upscaling. The order

:41:57.:41:59.

but is there, we have three new customers next year, we have done an

:42:00.:42:04.

exhibition and we have been lucky to win an MoD military application and

:42:05.:42:11.

the facility is three times bigger. We 0

:42:12.:42:11.

the facility is three times bigger. We are taking the staff up to 180.

:42:12.:42:18.

We are on course regardless of the recession. Minor said to the

:42:19.:42:22.

Treasury is keep your hand on the tiller, do not let go. Keep things

:42:23.:42:31.

simple, keep it consistent `` my advice to the Treasury. Not everyone

:42:32.:42:38.

has a positive outlook. At the food bank may have had their busiest

:42:39.:42:43.

week. They are preparing for a busy Christmas and see no sign of a

:42:44.:42:50.

growing economy improving incomes. It can be ordinary families that are

:42:51.:42:54.

finding they haven't got enough to make ends meet. Over the summer

:42:55.:43:01.

holidays, families where children get free school meals could not feed

:43:02.:43:08.

the children. We have had supply teachers who have not had enough

:43:09.:43:12.

work, no work over the summer and their income has dried up. They have

:43:13.:43:17.

not been able to get by. That is working people that are not able to

:43:18.:43:23.

manage. One of the realities is throughout the recession those who

:43:24.:43:26.

have had more money have continued to have an increase in income, those

:43:27.:43:31.

who have not had enough have got worse. One of the huge effects of

:43:32.:43:39.

the recession is the extent to which local authorities have cut local

:43:40.:43:43.

services to support local people and that has had a massive impact on

:43:44.:43:48.

ordinary people who need support and it's been taken away altogether. The

:43:49.:43:56.

Hope Nottingham food bank is in your constituency ` even if 0

:43:57.:43:57.

Hope Nottingham food bank is in your constituency ` even if the economy

:43:58.:43:59.

is improving, there are still hundreds of people relying on

:44:00.:44:02.

charity to eat they're not seeing any benefit in the upturn. No, the

:44:03.:44:12.

reality is we have always had people in society who are not as well off

:44:13.:44:19.

as others and that ever we have had people who are poor, it is the why

:44:20.:44:25.

`` it is why some people come into politics. Food banks have never been

:44:26.:44:32.

busier. With food banks who do a fabulous `` fabulous thing, they

:44:33.:44:36.

also grew under the 0 fabulous `` fabulous thing, they

:44:37.:44:38.

also grew under the last government. Food banks have increased and they

:44:39.:44:45.

are more popular and more widely known. You make it sound like a good

:44:46.:44:51.

thing. They are doing a fantastic job, that is the good thing. Whether

:44:52.:44:57.

there is more need out there is something to debate. You don't solve

:44:58.:45:02.

those problems by not increasing business so... It is about creating

:45:03.:45:11.

jobs. The businessman we saw there is creating jobs, he's getting new

:45:12.:45:14.

premises thanks to government funding ` the economy is growing

:45:15.:45:17.

again, he's happy about it and it's difficult for you to argue

:45:18.:45:20.

otherwise? Let's hope that when we see a recovery that everybody gets a

:45:21.:45:25.

fair crack of the whip. On the Labour side we are concerned there

:45:26.:45:29.

is complacency in the Conservatives, George Osborne doesn't understand

:45:30.:45:33.

that for most people life is harder and the Institute for Fiscal Studies

:45:34.:45:39.

say that household incomes will be squeezed very much more considerably

:45:40.:45:47.

by the next election. But many new workers will feel the benefit. The

:45:48.:45:52.

worry is it is turning out to be a recovery for the few and those who

:45:53.:45:57.

are already wealthy but the cost of living squeeze is continuing. The

:45:58.:46:10.

jobs that are going to be created at that business are not jobs for the

:46:11.:46:12.

rich, 0 that business are not jobs for the

:46:13.:46:13.

rich, they are jobs for ordinary people. Youth unemployment, up 127%.

:46:14.:46:26.

I wasn't interrupting you. We are doing good work on use. We have

:46:27.:46:32.

abolished national insurance for Under`21s. We are talking about

:46:33.:46:37.

hard`working people. There are hard`working people, 0

:46:38.:46:39.

hard`working people. There are hard`working people, supply

:46:40.:46:45.

teachers... People trying to do their job, supply teachers... People

:46:46.:46:51.

who go to food banks tend not to be in jobs. The majority are not in

:46:52.:46:58.

work. We are desperately trying to make sure you are better off in work

:46:59.:47:03.

than not in work, their work programmes to get people back into

:47:04.:47:05.

work and we have invested 0 programmes to get people back into

:47:06.:47:07.

work and we have invested hugely in that. You do not borrow, that is

:47:08.:47:17.

what put us into this position. The money advice and service this week

:47:18.:47:22.

said in Nottingham over 40% of people are struggling to cope with

:47:23.:47:27.

the debts they have got. They are depleting savings at the fastest

:47:28.:47:31.

rate in 40 years and the squeeze is on. They don't feel you are doing

:47:32.:47:39.

enough. In 2010, we were nearly bankrupt. Household debt... We had

:47:40.:47:47.

one of the biggest deficits... We have brought down... We have reduced

:47:48.:47:52.

the deficit by a third and if you look at the plans, we will reduce it

:47:53.:47:57.

further. The economy is improving and people might not be feeling it

:47:58.:48:01.

so much yet in their pockets but in a year as get closer to the

:48:02.:48:07.

election, it looks far better than George Osborne. It is not a problem

:48:08.:48:12.

if the economy is improving. People watching this programme need to ask

:48:13.:48:16.

themselves to they feel as though they are seeing the recovery after

:48:17.:48:22.

three long years, we have not had growth because the Chancellor pulled

:48:23.:48:27.

the rug of confidence. The lack of growth of three years has put the

:48:28.:48:31.

public finances into a deep problem, it has created a crisis.

:48:32.:48:45.

An energy price freeze, bills will go up ?70. You cannot allow the

:48:46.:48:50.

energy companies to go along without their profits being touched. Deal

:48:51.:48:56.

with the energy. We need childcare improvements.

:48:57.:49:04.

As you approach an election, the economy is on the up. It is what you

:49:05.:49:10.

want. In your constituency, people are

:49:11.:49:19.

facing... 15 hours free childcare, you cannot do a part`time job. You

:49:20.:49:25.

have to give people affordable childcare. You still have so many

:49:26.:49:30.

differences. People say your policies are the same.

:49:31.:49:36.

There are things you disagree on. We will see what happens after the

:49:37.:49:44.

election. Christmas is traditionally a time of goodwill, which could mean

:49:45.:49:47.

good news for the Fairtrade movement which aims 0

:49:48.:49:48.

good news for the Fairtrade movement which aims to give farmers and

:49:49.:49:51.

workers across the world a better deal. But with cash still short, are

:49:52.:49:54.

people tempted to buy Fairtrade or more inclined to look for a bargain?

:49:55.:49:58.

We've been to Hinckley, a Fairtrade town, to find out. And watch out for

:49:59.:50:00.

the Des Coleman Christmas jumper! A few years ago I was lucky enough

:50:01.:50:13.

to go to Ghana to speak to the Ghana to speak to the Garners who benefit

:50:14.:50:17.

from Fairtrade. Are we in the East Midlands still willing to support

:50:18.:50:24.

it? You own this coffee shop and you serve Fairtrade products.

:50:25.:50:29.

I have been in Hinckley for five years and with self edge trade

:50:30.:50:34.

because we believe in supporting the communities in the third world

:50:35.:50:36.

countries who are less fortunate than ourselves.

:50:37.:50:45.

I have come to meet a group of Fairtrade supporters. We think it's

:50:46.:50:50.

important because we have so much wealth on this side of the world and

:50:51.:50:55.

the producers very often have a raw deal.

:50:56.:50:58.

We know by supporting Fairtrade we are improving conditions for people

:50:59.:51:02.

in developing countries. We might moan about our working

:51:03.:51:07.

environment but they are nothing compared 0 0

:51:08.:51:07.

environment but they are nothing compared to people in developing

:51:08.:51:11.

countries. A common misconception is it is chocolate, tea and coffee.

:51:12.:51:16.

There are many gifts you can buy fair trade and fruit and olive oil

:51:17.:51:20.

and wine. There is more than the average tea and coffee. Are you a

:51:21.:51:27.

supporter of Fairtrade Wine? Yes, very much so!

:51:28.:51:38.

Do you buy Fairtrade? No, they are more expensive than normal

:51:39.:51:39.

practice. I would if they would treat ``

:51:40.:51:44.

cheaper. When it comes to Fairtrade, do you

:51:45.:51:51.

buy them or not? Yes. I believe in helping third World countries and

:51:52.:51:54.

supporting local communities. I do not consciously not buy it but

:51:55.:51:59.

price dictates what you buy these days. 0

:52:00.:52:01.

We're joined by Mathew Hulbert, a Liberal Democrat councillor in

:52:02.:52:03.

Hinckley and Bosworth and the council's Fairtrade champion.

:52:04.:52:11.

What does a Fairtrade champion do? I am the only one in the country.

:52:12.:52:19.

I champion of fair trade at the borough council. I speak up at

:52:20.:52:23.

council meetings, I am part of a forum of volunteers and I speak out

:52:24.:52:30.

and promote that ethical shopping is a great thing to do. A lot of people

:52:31.:52:37.

agree and say it is a great thing to do but when a look at the prices,

:52:38.:52:40.

they say it is not for them. Yes, I think the lady was echoing a

:52:41.:52:48.

misconception which is it is more expensive.

:52:49.:52:51.

Fair trade products are cheaper now, they compete very well with regular

:52:52.:52:57.

products. It used to be that you pay more under products were not as

:52:58.:53:02.

good, the coffee and other things but now the products are good, you

:53:03.:53:07.

pay a competitive price and you are helping people in the developing

:53:08.:53:11.

world. Lots of people have bought into it.

:53:12.:53:20.

Is it a good idea? My thing is that I feel strongly it

:53:21.:53:26.

is obscene when, and we all do it, we wear clothes that have been put

:53:27.:53:30.

together 0 we wear clothes that have been put

:53:31.:53:30.

together by a 0 we wear clothes that have been put

:53:31.:53:34.

together by a child and so Fairtrade clothing, if we could do that would

:53:35.:53:38.

be great. I have done Fairtrade T`shirts. It is quite hard to find

:53:39.:53:42.

and if we could make 0 T`shirts. It is quite hard to find

:53:43.:53:45.

and if we could make advances there, we would see people take that up.

:53:46.:53:51.

There are 2000 Fairtrade products. People think of bananas and tea and

:53:52.:53:55.

coffee. Consumers have a lot of power if

:53:56.:54:00.

they decide to shop in the right way, there is Fairtrade, organic

:54:01.:54:07.

purchasing but also shopping locally. Small business Saturday was

:54:08.:54:12.

yesterday and talking to local firms there is a lot of power consumers

:54:13.:54:19.

have if they think. If they are competitive and the quality is good,

:54:20.:54:23.

more people are aware of it. Some 0

:54:24.:54:25.

more people are aware of it. Some people will pay more if it

:54:26.:54:30.

means they know a child has not made that product.

:54:31.:54:39.

Some of the people were from local business networks in Hinckley who do

:54:40.:54:43.

a fantastic job in promoting local businesses, businesses were people

:54:44.:54:47.

run them from their home and they did a great job. Do you see people

:54:48.:54:53.

buying into this at Christmas and will people pay more if it is

:54:54.:54:57.

Fairtrade? I think so and we saw recently with

:54:58.:55:01.

Children in Need, people are generous in this country. Even

:55:02.:55:05.

though we are living in austerities Britain, people are prepared to help

:55:06.:55:10.

people who are more in need than they are.

:55:11.:55:15.

And we see some of these natural disasters that are reflecting the

:55:16.:55:19.

poorest parts of the world but it is not just about the emergency aid. We

:55:20.:55:25.

have to realise our economy and consumers can affect bringing them

:55:26.:55:29.

up to a more 0 consumers can affect bringing them

:55:30.:55:37.

up to a more sustainable standard. I am a proud supporter of the

:55:38.:55:41.

international aid. We talked about the economy, give us your view of a

:55:42.:55:46.

Lib Dem. I think we are growing in the East

:55:47.:55:50.

Midlands and the economy is growing. Nick Clegg said it this week, he was

:55:51.:55:56.

doing 0 Nick Clegg said it this week, he was

:55:57.:55:56.

doing a better 0 Nick Clegg said it this week, he was

:55:57.:55:58.

doing a better job at Prime Minister's Questions, it is because

:55:59.:56:02.

of the Lib Dems but we have a recovery. The government would not

:56:03.:56:06.

have a majority worried not for the Lib Dems, the pupil premium, taking

:56:07.:56:13.

millions out of tax, Chris is right to say... You are right when you say

:56:14.:56:18.

we need to do more to help the most vulnerable. I agree. So, the

:56:19.:56:25.

recovery is down to the Lib Dems. It is about to part is about two

:56:26.:56:28.

parties coming together in the national interest.

:56:29.:56:33.

We inherited a mess. We have worked well together. I will not score

:56:34.:56:39.

points against the Lib Dems because I enjoy working with the Liberal

:56:40.:56:42.

Democrats in government. I work with Norman Lamb and it is great. Would

:56:43.:56:51.

you work with the Lib Dems? I do not think the Lib Dems will be in play

:56:52.:56:57.

at the next election. There are simile broken promises.

:56:58.:57:03.

Tuition fees... No one is convinced Ed Miliband is a

:57:04.:57:13.

potential future Prime Minister. Labour are really really vicious

:57:14.:57:18.

against the Lib Dems in Parliament. The cost of living is what matters.

:57:19.:57:24.

We are getting on and doing it! Thank you for joining us.

:57:25.:57:26.

Happy Christmas. Time for a round`up of some of the

:57:27.:57:30.

other political stories in the East Midlands this week, here's Rob

:57:31.:57:38.

Pittam with 60 seconds: a former UKIP candidate for Derbyshire police

:57:39.:57:45.

and crime commission has resigned from the party.

:57:46.:57:48.

He says it is moving too far to the right. It is a claim denied by UKIP.

:57:49.:57:56.

We are attracting votes from former Tories and Labour and former Lib

:57:57.:57:59.

Dems. And especially where attracting

:58:00.:58:02.

votes from people who have not bothered to vote for a decade. The

:58:03.:58:06.

badger cull is under scrutiny in a debate called by Chris Williamson.

:58:07.:58:15.

He's been against the cult and has tabled a Westminster debate. And

:58:16.:58:18.

Leicester City Council has been given a kick in the pants from the

:58:19.:58:20.

plain English 0 given a kick in the pants from the

:58:21.:58:23.

plain English campaign for a notice on controlling dogs would set a

:58:24.:58:26.

person who habitually as a dog in his possession shall be taken to be

:58:27.:58:31.

in charge of the dog at any time unless at that time some other

:58:32.:58:35.

person is in charge of the dog. The council said it the criticism.

:58:36.:58:44.

`` it accepts the criticism. We live in hope. You could not make it up.

:58:45.:58:51.

Christmas is around the corner. What is top of the agenda? 2014, some of

:58:52.:58:55.

those difficult decisions we have taken will bear fruit more, the

:58:56.:59:00.

economy will grow, there's still a lot to be done.

:59:01.:59:06.

It is looking better than 2010. We will see the growth and add a

:59:07.:59:14.

greater rate. An optimistic look. I wish I was so optimistic. I worry it

:59:15.:59:19.

is complacent, there's a lot more to be done to help those who are the

:59:20.:59:26.

least well off in society and ordinary working people who see

:59:27.:59:30.

earnings going down while prices rise.

:59:31.:59:34.

New years resolutions? Yes, I have broken them.

:59:35.:59:40.

They are there to be broken. Stop smoking and I didn't. I finally

:59:41.:59:45.

stopped five`year is ago. I had no chocolate for a year but more

:59:46.:59:52.

Fairtrade this year. That's the Sunday Politics in the

:59:53.:59:56.

East Midlands, thanks to our guests Anna and Chris. From all the team

:59:57.:59:58.

here have a very Merry Tomorrow, the House of Commons will

:59:59.:00:10.

pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest

:00:11.:00:24.

son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that

:00:25.:00:49.

involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against

:00:50.:00:50.

apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to

:00:51.:01:03.

South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put

:01:04.:01:12.

on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He

:01:13.:01:20.

also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the

:01:21.:01:25.

world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this

:01:26.:01:30.

reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who

:01:31.:01:40.

raised the standard of humanity. Thank you for the gift of Madiba.

:01:41.:01:49.

Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.

:01:50.:01:59.

We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not

:02:00.:02:08.

one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an

:02:09.:02:14.

election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I

:02:15.:02:18.

would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been

:02:19.:02:21.

the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary. He

:02:22.:02:27.

had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot

:02:28.:02:31.

of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without

:02:32.:02:37.

bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his

:02:38.:02:42.

achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that

:02:43.:02:47.

if you have black majority rule, you might have a bloodbath. It's down to

:02:48.:02:50.

Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that

:02:51.:02:55.

Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the

:02:56.:03:04.

key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about

:03:05.:03:10.

it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That

:03:11.:03:13.

anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics

:03:14.:03:18.

in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the

:03:19.:03:23.

time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in

:03:24.:03:27.

South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the

:03:28.:03:31.

anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political

:03:32.:03:37.

campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's

:03:38.:03:40.

assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people

:03:41.:03:44.

that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him

:03:45.:03:48.

come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you

:03:49.:03:54.

have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,

:03:55.:03:58.

picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was

:03:59.:04:06.

more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice

:04:07.:04:13.

Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's

:04:14.:04:16.

performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a

:04:17.:04:21.

brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best

:04:22.:04:25.

performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points

:04:26.:04:29.

he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I

:04:30.:04:34.

noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that

:04:35.:04:39.

under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for

:04:40.:04:43.

him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience

:04:44.:04:49.

first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not

:04:50.:04:52.

anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This

:04:53.:05:04.

is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can

:05:05.:05:08.

say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to

:05:09.:05:14.

Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he

:05:15.:05:19.

wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless

:05:20.:05:24.

enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid

:05:25.:05:28.

of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed

:05:29.:05:33.

Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the

:05:34.:05:38.

right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed

:05:39.:05:41.

Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview

:05:42.:05:46.

because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument

:05:47.:05:50.

with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just

:05:51.:05:55.

about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to

:05:56.:06:01.

look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of

:06:02.:06:05.

living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than

:06:06.:06:10.

that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective

:06:11.:06:13.

member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown

:06:14.:06:19.

years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys

:06:20.:06:22.

that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to

:06:23.:06:26.

replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,

:06:27.:06:30.

Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the

:06:31.:06:33.

Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about

:06:34.:06:38.

shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too

:06:39.:06:43.

far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would

:06:44.:06:51.

want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I

:06:52.:06:58.

can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair

:06:59.:07:04.

Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put

:07:05.:07:08.

him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare

:07:09.:07:12.

secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to

:07:13.:07:16.

the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,

:07:17.:07:22.

or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which

:07:23.:07:27.

could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could

:07:28.:07:31.

feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,

:07:32.:07:34.

looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour

:07:35.:07:39.

strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view

:07:40.:07:42.

mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead

:07:43.:07:46.

through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre

:07:47.:07:52.

of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for

:07:53.:07:57.

him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison

:07:58.:08:01.

with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is

:08:02.:08:05.

between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between

:08:06.:08:09.

Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging

:08:10.:08:13.

reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of

:08:14.:08:17.

recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that

:08:18.:08:20.

punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?

:08:21.:08:28.

Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.

:08:29.:08:30.

We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in

:08:31.:08:34.

living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David

:08:35.:08:40.

Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal

:08:41.:08:44.

lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the

:08:45.:08:47.

composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we

:08:48.:08:52.

ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it

:08:53.:08:55.

smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.

:08:56.:08:59.

Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I

:09:00.:09:09.

say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of

:09:10.:09:17.

the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will

:09:18.:09:22.

there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,

:09:23.:09:28.

but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a

:09:29.:09:36.

third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What

:09:37.:09:42.

will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to

:09:43.:09:48.

2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went

:09:49.:09:53.

down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and

:09:54.:09:58.

claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it

:09:59.:10:05.

wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular

:10:06.:10:08.

growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is

:10:09.:10:15.

incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, because the housing market in London

:10:16.:10:20.

is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed

:10:21.:10:25.

Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,

:10:26.:10:37.

I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean

:10:38.:10:40.

have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour.

:10:41.:10:51.

Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence

:10:52.:10:54.

referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless

:10:55.:11:00.

they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to

:11:01.:11:09.

call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come

:11:10.:11:14.

to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population

:11:15.:11:21.

of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,

:11:22.:11:26.

I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,

:11:27.:11:32.

but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into

:11:33.:11:36.

figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think

:11:37.:11:41.

quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a

:11:42.:11:48.

huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to

:11:49.:11:55.

speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three

:11:56.:11:58.

of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend

:11:59.:12:06.

that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If

:12:07.:12:12.

you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you

:12:13.:12:21.

have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true

:12:22.:12:28.

talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you

:12:29.:12:33.

will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election

:12:34.:12:39.

next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this

:12:40.:12:45.

time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of

:12:46.:12:53.

the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage

:12:54.:12:58.

to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like

:12:59.:13:01.

there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it

:13:02.:13:05.

would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think

:13:06.:13:09.

that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick

:13:10.:13:12.

Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all

:13:13.:13:20.

of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the

:13:21.:13:22.

grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force

:13:23.:13:26.

that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.

:13:27.:13:30.

I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives

:13:31.:13:38.

you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the

:13:39.:13:44.

first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

:13:45.:13:50.

Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.

:13:51.:13:53.

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