16/02/2014 Sunday Politics East Midlands


16/02/2014

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

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extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

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Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

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European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

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development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

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the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

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joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election

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In the East Midlands, we're with the leaders of our county councils.

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They'll be telling us how they plan to cut hundreds of millions of

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pounds and shed thousands more jobs. look at his decisions and priorities

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with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest

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political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and

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probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development

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in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the

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President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel

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Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that

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an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union

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as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28

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member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if

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not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out

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of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very

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important, the application to the union would have to be approved by

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all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the

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secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your

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democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely

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difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have

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a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that

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Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is

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a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be

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externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't

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want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive

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into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex

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Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to

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the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with

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England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last

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week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically

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get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that

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they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get

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the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more

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significant than the application? The reference to Spain is

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interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active

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area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other

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countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no

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reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by

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letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it

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does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have

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to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite

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strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know

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that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried

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that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care

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arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.

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We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the

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currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the

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polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would

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prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that

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these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls

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tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for

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error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of

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reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in

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the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a

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member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both

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of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already

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told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is

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playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,

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John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the

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constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was

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also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A

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second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last

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minute. The leader of the biggest

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underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members

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into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the

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national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership

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has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when

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union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has

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seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to

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close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the

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beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100

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million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has

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threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.

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Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the

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moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of

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all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it

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quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices

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would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone

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wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep

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them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not

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the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking

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offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a

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booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less

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than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.

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Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV

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that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time

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people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.

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People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit

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behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,

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however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they

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were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out

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of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket

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offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind

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and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the

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underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They

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are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?

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Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got

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some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a

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whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in

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decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million

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people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per

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day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We

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are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more

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people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming

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home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people

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drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of

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the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I

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want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I

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think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because

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you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what

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that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily

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newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to

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know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...

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You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and

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follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were

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taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they

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go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on

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holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They

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sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be

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?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never

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mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what

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you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I

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see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next

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four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot

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of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do

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anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be

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doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not

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strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good

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terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all

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of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they

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have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to

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do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for

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your members and why union membership has been rising, people

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want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost

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for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone

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believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are

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going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on

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the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at

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some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The

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starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary

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for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a

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teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had

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to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members

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wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by

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conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the

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teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the

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end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up

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the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are

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fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all

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support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars

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around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members

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pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if

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we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who

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travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of

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course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling

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public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It

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two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us

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against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's

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a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having

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their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is

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going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said

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at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in

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two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth

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?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting

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trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy

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what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?

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Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx

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says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and

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the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of

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it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out

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for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they

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can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so

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everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and

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conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the

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underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute

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technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing

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the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless

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trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this

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because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming

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in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it

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is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it

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breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be

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stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who

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cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality

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is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a

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Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless

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but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small

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section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me

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about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over

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their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created

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all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many

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people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the

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stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and

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greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better

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service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the

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ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single

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ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes

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of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long

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transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.

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The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is

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that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people

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having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use

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the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the

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offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I

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struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.

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They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is

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press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being

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and what makes the London Underground so precious is that

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people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out

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on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the

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concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London

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Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices

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and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially

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sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the

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closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed

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to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal

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with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and

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the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want

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more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of

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your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%

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voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of

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your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a

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higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be

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lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to

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have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we

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used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were

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higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where

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ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be

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persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the

:20:19.:20:22.

workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT

:20:23.:20:30.

re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got

:20:31.:20:34.

expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the

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Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we

:20:44.:20:52.

don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you

:20:53.:20:57.

going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You

:20:58.:21:07.

haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you

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stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and

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right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are

:21:22.:21:26.

anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the

:21:27.:21:33.

immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as

:21:34.:21:39.

badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the

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road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not

:21:47.:21:51.

ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to

:21:52.:21:57.

retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to

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renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have

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your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if

:22:10.:22:20.

you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later

:22:21.:22:27.

in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel

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Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish

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Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now

:22:40.:22:45.

heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I

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think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He

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compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,

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Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to

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reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are

:23:12.:23:15.

compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been

:23:16.:23:19.

part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work

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about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership

:23:26.:23:29.

of the European Union and that position has now been explained and

:23:30.:23:35.

debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are

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talking about the president of the European commission and we have

:23:49.:23:51.

spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,

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it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that

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Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they

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will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it

:24:14.:24:17.

if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state

:24:18.:24:22.

of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish

:24:23.:24:28.

membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if

:24:29.:24:33.

there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an

:24:34.:24:37.

independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.

:24:38.:24:42.

That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no

:24:43.:24:47.

stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union

:24:48.:24:50.

because it is important that Scotland is already part of the

:24:51.:24:55.

European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union

:24:56.:25:01.

and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation

:25:02.:25:05.

in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that

:25:06.:25:15.

David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for

:25:16.:25:21.

you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has

:25:22.:25:27.

been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel

:25:28.:25:31.

Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it

:25:32.:25:38.

has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the

:25:39.:25:44.

Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within

:25:45.:25:47.

Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is

:25:48.:25:56.

Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect

:25:57.:26:00.

comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence

:26:01.:26:07.

and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves

:26:08.:26:14.

your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We

:26:15.:26:20.

have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be

:26:21.:26:28.

to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's

:26:29.:26:35.

not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for

:26:36.:26:39.

two years before you can apply for membership and an independent

:26:40.:26:42.

Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or

:26:43.:26:48.

the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our

:26:49.:26:51.

arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests

:26:52.:26:58.

of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.

:26:59.:27:04.

This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of

:27:05.:27:07.

Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of

:27:08.:27:10.

the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on

:27:11.:27:13.

whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come

:27:14.:27:17.

second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the

:27:18.:27:20.

Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all

:27:21.:27:31.

meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a

:27:32.:27:41.

theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?

:27:42.:27:48.

To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard

:27:49.:27:51.

evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP

:27:52.:27:54.

doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.

:27:55.:28:04.

I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have

:28:05.:28:10.

come second and increased their share of the vote quite

:28:11.:28:13.

significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances

:28:14.:28:15.

in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest

:28:16.:28:18.

to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd

:28:19.:28:29.

told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I

:28:30.:28:38.

wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour

:28:39.:28:42.

stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were

:28:43.:28:49.

running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in

:28:50.:28:53.

Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets

:28:54.:28:56.

that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about

:28:57.:29:00.

the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help

:29:01.:29:03.

them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.

:29:04.:29:08.

Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they

:29:09.:29:14.

could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP

:29:15.:29:17.

voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about

:29:18.:29:29.

the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy

:29:30.:29:36.

faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many

:29:37.:29:41.

UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do

:29:42.:29:45.

pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters

:29:46.:29:50.

are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban

:29:51.:29:56.

areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And

:29:57.:30:00.

they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if

:30:01.:30:03.

he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just

:30:04.:30:16.

down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP

:30:17.:30:20.

strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they

:30:21.:30:23.

want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the

:30:24.:30:26.

Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their

:30:27.:30:32.

MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will

:30:33.:30:39.

be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the

:30:40.:30:42.

Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may

:30:43.:30:47.

have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over

:30:48.:30:55.

at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had

:30:56.:31:02.

major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a

:31:03.:31:06.

kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious

:31:07.:31:10.

as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good

:31:11.:31:15.

job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which

:31:16.:31:19.

will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if

:31:20.:31:25.

it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP

:31:26.:31:30.

Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He

:31:31.:31:34.

will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You

:31:35.:31:37.

came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky

:31:38.:31:44.

Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very

:31:45.:31:49.

unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to

:31:50.:31:53.

actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back

:31:54.:32:03.

to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular

:32:04.:32:09.

government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour

:32:10.:32:12.

compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out

:32:13.:32:15.

the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an

:32:16.:32:19.

efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people

:32:20.:32:25.

with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the

:32:26.:32:29.

increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in

:32:30.:32:33.

the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think

:32:34.:32:38.

by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour

:32:39.:32:43.

in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should

:32:44.:32:48.

discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look

:32:49.:32:52.

forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we

:32:53.:32:56.

have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change

:32:57.:33:04.

that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the

:33:05.:33:07.

north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are

:33:08.:33:12.

drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and

:33:13.:33:16.

they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want

:33:17.:33:20.

change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and

:33:21.:33:25.

they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have

:33:26.:33:30.

seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to

:33:31.:33:35.

get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the

:33:36.:33:38.

renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's

:33:39.:33:48.

get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in

:33:49.:33:53.

22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what

:33:54.:33:57.

motivates you, and with UKIP it is, the only way it will be a referendum

:33:58.:34:01.

on Europe in this country as if there is a majority Conservative

:34:02.:34:04.

government at the next election And you could well stop that from

:34:05.:34:08.

happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David

:34:09.:34:13.

Cameron and into a referendum pledge he explicitly ruled out making

:34:14.:34:16.

before through our success, and I was there in PMQs, when his MPs

:34:17.:34:20.

asked him and he said it would not be in the national interest because

:34:21.:34:24.

he didn't want to leave, our electoral success forced that

:34:25.:34:28.

pledge. I believe by winning the European action this May we can

:34:29.:34:30.

force Ed Miliband, again, against his will, to match that pledge.

:34:31.:34:35.

Then, whatever formulation varies in the next Parliament, we will get a

:34:36.:34:41.

referendum. Labour MPs have just had the chance to say we want a

:34:42.:34:45.

referendum. They refused to do it. The only way you are going to get a

:34:46.:34:50.

renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in

:34:51.:34:54.

or out referendum is to have a Conservative Government. Please

:34:55.:34:57.

UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver

:34:58.:35:04.

and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a

:35:05.:35:07.

pledge for a referendum he didn't want to make. We will know if you

:35:08.:35:13.

are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into

:35:14.:35:16.

the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still

:35:17.:35:22.

loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing.

:35:23.:35:26.

David Cameron, and I asked him directly, thermally wants to stay

:35:27.:35:32.

in. He wants to be the Edward Heath of the 21st century. The Tories are

:35:33.:35:38.

going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed Miliband. What would you say to

:35:39.:35:43.

that? I would say we have probably maxed out the Tory vote we are going

:35:44.:35:45.

to get because David Cameron has been incredibly helpful in sending

:35:46.:35:49.

them in our direction. Our potential for growth now, would we are

:35:50.:35:56.

concentrating on, his those disenchanted former Labour voters

:35:57.:36:00.

and more and more of them are coming towards us on things like

:36:01.:36:06.

immigration and law and order. We want to renegotiate our relationship

:36:07.:36:09.

with Europe. We need to have people who are going to turn up to

:36:10.:36:12.

negotiate with people like Barroso. That meant a Prime Minister that is

:36:13.:36:16.

not Ed Miliband but David Cameron. UKIP MEPs do not turn up to

:36:17.:36:26.

defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there

:36:27.:36:31.

will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty

:36:32.:36:35.

change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do

:36:36.:36:41.

then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to

:36:42.:36:46.

agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these

:36:47.:36:53.

negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has

:36:54.:37:00.

been very clear that British public opinion is on a knife edge and

:37:01.:37:04.

unless we get what we want from a renegotiation, we will leave. You

:37:05.:37:09.

would vote to leave? Let's see what we get with the deal on the table in

:37:10.:37:13.

2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.

:37:14.:37:18.

But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers

:37:19.:37:22.

lucky enough to live in the East of have to move on. For those viewers

:37:23.:37:26.

England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are

:37:27.:37:30.

watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be

:37:31.:37:34.

talking about, what else, the weather, with

:37:35.:37:42.

In the East Midlands, we're out on the road and taking a closer look at

:37:43.:37:48.

the crisis facing our county councils. And with me, the leaders

:37:49.:37:51.

of Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire. The people taking

:37:52.:38:00.

the decisions that affect us all. Without it, I think I would be on

:38:01.:38:06.

the street. With hundreds of millions of pounds to cut and

:38:07.:38:09.

thousands of jobs to shed, where will the axe fall next? A recent

:38:10.:38:17.

report showed that this brings in for the local economy something in

:38:18.:38:22.

the region of ?4.4 million. That would 0

:38:23.:38:22.

the region of ?4.4 million. That would be 0

:38:23.:38:22.

the region of ?4.4 million. That would be lost.

:38:23.:38:25.

Hello, I'm Marie Ashby. This is the debating chamber at

:38:26.:38:27.

Nottinghamshire's County Hall, where next week they'll be thrashing out

:38:28.:38:30.

the final version of their budget. And between them, all three leaders

:38:31.:38:35.

face some tough decisions. Nick Rushton, 0

:38:36.:38:35.

face some tough decisions. Nick Rushton, the leader of

:38:36.:38:37.

Leicestershire County Council, held on for the Conservatives at the

:38:38.:38:41.

local elections last May, but that hasn't saved him from facing big

:38:42.:38:45.

cuts to his budget. Anne Western, Labour leader of Derbyshire County

:38:46.:38:49.

Council, came to power in those same elections. 0 0

:38:50.:38:50.

Council, came to power in those same elections. And Alan Rhodes, Labour

:38:51.:38:53.

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council, who also swept into power

:38:54.:38:56.

last year and now faces a huge hole in his budget. We'll hear from them

:38:57.:39:03.

in a moment, but first, our political 0

:39:04.:39:03.

in a moment, but first, our political editor 0

:39:04.:39:03.

in a moment, but first, our political editor John Hess has been

:39:04.:39:06.

taking a look at the issues facing our councils in the East Midlands.

:39:07.:39:18.

It is from this spot near Loughborough that you get a

:39:19.:39:23.

fantastic view of the whole of the East Midlands, and when it comes the

:39:24.:39:27.

County Council budget pressures, if you want the big picture, it is not

:39:28.:39:31.

a bad place. Take Derbyshire. It is facing budget cuts of ?157 million.

:39:32.:39:39.

That is the equivalent of 1600 job losses. In Nottinghamshire, the cuts

:39:40.:39:46.

total is ?154 million, and 750 jobs. Since the age of posterity, it

:39:47.:39:50.

has lost a quarter of its workforce. In Leicestershire, the

:39:51.:39:55.

cuts will be around ?110 million, that is the equivalent of 700 posts.

:39:56.:40:01.

It has already had to lose seven `` 750 jobs. But do we have to take a

:40:02.:40:06.

new look at how our public services are provided? I am walking in the

:40:07.:40:14.

park with David Parsons. There is not much he doesn't know about local

:40:15.:40:21.

command. We are here because the park is not run by the council, but

:40:22.:40:26.

as a charitable trust. Could it be a model 0

:40:27.:40:26.

as a charitable trust. Could it be a model for cash`strapped councils to

:40:27.:40:31.

follow? Local people are on the board. I think people ought to look

:40:32.:40:35.

at places like this, to see how services can be run. The last thing

:40:36.:40:44.

I want to hear is about local Romanby organisation, let's have

:40:45.:40:46.

services which are responsive to people. I'd Mac welcome to the new

:40:47.:40:52.

one`stop shop for public services in Hinckley. Here, the council shares

:40:53.:40:56.

premises with other service providers. Is this the way ahead? We

:40:57.:41:01.

share services with neighbouring district councils, we work across

:41:02.:41:04.

the county border with our colleagues in Warwickshire on skills

:41:05.:41:09.

and economic regeneration delivery. We have moved into new council

:41:10.:41:12.

offices, which we share with the County Council and the job centre,

:41:13.:41:16.

which saves the public sector well over 200,000 fans a year. Back to

:41:17.:41:19.

Beacon Hill, and the sky 0 over 200,000 fans a year. Back to

:41:20.:41:20.

Beacon Hill, and the sky is overcast, but what is the

:41:21.:41:24.

Government's blue sky thinking on future funding of local services?

:41:25.:41:29.

Local authorities are working together in partnership across the

:41:30.:41:31.

public sector, potentially ?20 billion of services. Local

:41:32.:41:34.

government 0 billion of services. Local

:41:35.:41:36.

government as a whole will be spending 107 this year. `` ?117

:41:37.:41:46.

billion. And how about this for efficiency saving? Merge the

:41:47.:41:50.

district cancels into one. Perhaps an alternative is to look at unitary

:41:51.:41:56.

districts. I think that will be far better and more in touch with the

:41:57.:42:04.

people. What will that do to the average person on the street? I do

:42:05.:42:09.

believe you need to cut the number of councillors. All the agencies

:42:10.:42:14.

need to cooperate. But getting that cooperation we require a brisk walk

:42:15.:42:19.

in the park, just to clear the head and think afresh.

:42:20.:42:25.

Let's put these idea to the council leaders. And in the list says you

:42:26.:42:30.

have reserves to tap into. I suppose you could even sell this building.

:42:31.:42:35.

We could, of course. At in this economic honour, I am not sure

:42:36.:42:39.

whether people would pay it. Brandon Lewis made a point about reserves.

:42:40.:42:41.

We can only spend 0 Lewis made a point about reserves.

:42:42.:42:45.

We can only spend reserves once. We have spent reserves and continue to

:42:46.:42:49.

do so. We reduced our reserve skins `` considerably, by half by this

:42:50.:42:57.

time next year. We use them for `` risible by giving... Time for

:42:58.:43:04.

radical change is what the report seemed to be saying. Site it seemed

:43:05.:43:08.

to suggest we could go on doing things exactly as we have done in

:43:09.:43:14.

the past, that has gone. I am sure all of us are licking at different

:43:15.:43:17.

ways we can innovate, and covered duplication. We are working closely

:43:18.:43:22.

with the NHS in Derbyshire to see how we can 0

:43:23.:43:22.

with the NHS in Derbyshire to see how we can integrate health and

:43:23.:43:26.

social care. We know there is duplication, people get visited by

:43:27.:43:29.

different people from different organisations, going through

:43:30.:43:32.

different assessments. It is not very efficient. But what we know is,

:43:33.:43:35.

if we 0 very efficient. But what we know is,

:43:36.:43:35.

if we do 0 0 very efficient. But what we know is,

:43:36.:43:36.

if we do that, 0 very efficient. But what we know is,

:43:37.:43:37.

if we do that, the savings do not always manifest themselves in the

:43:38.:43:41.

right place. In Derbyshire, if we were to invest ?1 million more in

:43:42.:43:46.

preventing Babel from tripping and falling and breaking their hips ``

:43:47.:43:50.

preventing people, it would save ?12 million in a any, but the money does

:43:51.:43:57.

not move back into our pockets. You published a report saying that we

:43:58.:44:01.

could save ?30 million a year if we abolished smaller councils. Is that

:44:02.:44:07.

realistic? That came about because last summer, we consulted the

:44:08.:44:10.

general public about our savings, and one thing they said to us is

:44:11.:44:15.

that there are too many councillors and too many cancels. `` councils. I

:44:16.:44:24.

said that we had not considered it but I was willing to commission is

:44:25.:44:26.

an independent work to see what it would save, and I promised... It is

:44:27.:44:34.

a huge amount. I published my strict friends I will publish it at the

:44:35.:44:37.

same time I got it. What do we think about that as an idea? These savings

:44:38.:44:41.

are always worth considering, but unless you get a few IM `` unless

:44:42.:44:48.

you get a complete iron from the distance, is not feasible. `` a

:44:49.:44:55.

complete lie in. You might have a completely new regime. We are

:44:56.:45:00.

working very closely with other organisations, other councils. Do

:45:01.:45:05.

you work together? You are in neighbouring authorities. We do some

:45:06.:45:13.

work together. In answer to your previous question about whether it

:45:14.:45:17.

is worth taking out a complete layer of local Governor, in Derbyshire and

:45:18.:45:21.

in Nottinghamshire, we have taken a more evolutionary approach, we are

:45:22.:45:25.

creating what is known as joint committees, where all the councils

:45:26.:45:29.

in our area come together. In Derbyshire, it is the City Council,

:45:30.:45:33.

the county and the eight districts coming together in one place so we

:45:34.:45:37.

can share costs that way. I'd Mac you 0

:45:38.:45:38.

can share costs that way. I'd Mac you worked as an authority with

:45:39.:45:42.

Nottingham City Council. People might be surprised about that. We go

:45:43.:45:48.

where we can do a deal. We nearly had a deal with Nottingham Shah, but

:45:49.:45:49.

it fell through. I work 0 had a deal with Nottingham Shah, but

:45:50.:45:54.

it fell through. I work very closely with my city Mayor in Leicester. I

:45:55.:46:02.

will work with anybody who can save me money on backroom services so I

:46:03.:46:06.

can spend them on the front line. As leaders, you are putting up council

:46:07.:46:10.

tax am Nick has frozen his. Why should you not just take the guv ``

:46:11.:46:15.

take the money from the Government rose`mac we handed `` we have to

:46:16.:46:19.

make 150 former million pounds of savings forced `` ?154 million. The

:46:20.:46:30.

increase will enable us to improve and deliver a cost`effective

:46:31.:46:38.

service. We have had for years of council tax freezes, that has cost

:46:39.:46:41.

this council a huge amount of money. The council tax increase we

:46:42.:46:49.

are proposing will bring ?15 million over the next three years. That is

:46:50.:46:53.

important income. Why not freeze the council tax in Derbyshire? It was

:46:54.:46:58.

not a decision we took lightly. We know how tight budgets are. But the

:46:59.:47:03.

money you get from the Government as a grad, there is no guarantee it

:47:04.:47:07.

will continue. `` as a grant. Is that right? I was assured that the

:47:08.:47:11.

grant is 0 that right? I was assured that the

:47:12.:47:12.

grant is in 0 that right? I was assured that the

:47:13.:47:15.

grant is in the base, I had gone up by 1% by increasing council tax by

:47:16.:47:21.

1%, it enables me to get ?2.5 million from the Government. I think

:47:22.:47:24.

Leicestershire people are struggling, so I did not want to

:47:25.:47:27.

increase the burden on what they paid. It is very difficult to plan.

:47:28.:47:34.

?500 million worth of public money. Do you think your collectors will

:47:35.:47:40.

think it is too much of a risk? We did a big consultation over the

:47:41.:47:42.

summer and the autumn, and what came out of that very loudly from people

:47:43.:47:46.

in Derbyshire was a value the services. We will find out about

:47:47.:47:56.

that in a moment. That came out in our consultation as well. And you

:47:57.:48:03.

have been listening to what they had disable stop none of us want to do

:48:04.:48:07.

this. But we have to live within our means. 0

:48:08.:48:09.

this. But we have to live within our means. That is clearly what the

:48:10.:48:12.

politicians think, but what about you? Jane Dodge has been speaking to

:48:13.:48:18.

the people most affected by the decisions the leaders are making.

:48:19.:48:28.

It might not sound like it, but this visitor is a friend, not both. John

:48:29.:48:33.

Davidson credit lease out with turning his life around. A soldier

:48:34.:48:40.

since his teens, in 2006 he sustained a serious head injury

:48:41.:48:45.

while serving in Iraq. His marriage broke up and he found himself that

:48:46.:48:50.

in Derbyshire with nowhere to live. The charity P3 stepped in and found

:48:51.:48:58.

him a home. Without it, I think I would be on the street. P3 is a

:48:59.:49:06.

grouping of people who can put a man back together again. That he or she

:49:07.:49:16.

could then look for a good life again. John is one of 800 people

:49:17.:49:21.

that P3 is supporting in Derbyshire. But he warns that work could come to

:49:22.:49:25.

an end if they can to cancel goes ahead with proposed cuts in funding.

:49:26.:49:31.

We will have people sleeping rough prolonged periods of time, living in

:49:32.:49:36.

chaos, massive health needs and massive impact on the police,

:49:37.:49:39.

massive impact on crime. It is a false economy. By fact it is not

:49:40.:49:45.

only charities that are getting a pounding from cuts. Snibston

:49:46.:49:49.

discovery Museum looks set to lose nearly a quarter of ?1 million.

:49:50.:49:53.

Leicestershire County Council wants a smaller attraction, focusing on

:49:54.:49:58.

the site's mining heritage. Opponents say it makes no financial

:49:59.:50:02.

sense. The numbers of people attracted here from outside the

:50:03.:50:06.

county, as well as from within, is significant. Very high numbers of

:50:07.:50:14.

visitors. A recent report showed that this brings in for the local

:50:15.:50:19.

economy something in the region of ?4.4 million. That would be lost.

:50:20.:50:29.

Sun`mac I used to sleep here... Two weeks ago, that is where Daniel was

:50:30.:50:33.

sleeping, apart in 0 weeks ago, that is where Daniel was

:50:34.:50:36.

sleeping, apart in Mansfield. It was summer to get your head down. But

:50:37.:50:41.

thanks to the charity Framework, he has a bed in a hostel for the

:50:42.:50:45.

homeless after a life in and out of prison and he says it is the break

:50:46.:50:47.

he needs 0 prison and he says it is the break

:50:48.:50:49.

he needs to start again. The future is looking good. I am on the way to

:50:50.:50:55.

doing things with my life now. I am going to college. I have plans.

:50:56.:51:04.

There are 15 beds here, all of them currently in use, and there is a

:51:05.:51:07.

long waiting list. Nottinghamshire County Council is proposing to cut

:51:08.:51:13.

funding here by 80%, Framework says that goes ahead, this hostel and

:51:14.:51:18.

4`mac others will have two close. `` and for others. Most people who use

:51:19.:51:25.

this service do so because of psychological or psychiatric

:51:26.:51:28.

problems, drug or alcohol problems, or 0

:51:29.:51:28.

problems, drug or alcohol problems, or because they are homeless. Local

:51:29.:51:31.

authorities do have an obligation to have `` to help homeless people.

:51:32.:51:36.

Lisa has brought John to an advice centre in Ilkeston. Life is looking

:51:37.:51:41.

at him, but if the cuts go ahead, this type of support will be a thing

:51:42.:51:43.

of the past. Some of the people on the front line

:51:44.:51:49.

of these cuts. Let's take a look, first off at

:51:50.:51:54.

John's case, and Iraq veteran who said his life was put on track by

:51:55.:51:59.

this charity. This is a charity whose funding you're going to cut in

:52:00.:52:03.

Derbyshire. We are working very hard not to do so. If you take out of our

:52:04.:52:08.

budget the statutory services, that we have a legal duty to provide,

:52:09.:52:11.

what we have left is not very much at all. That is where this service

:52:12.:52:17.

is funded from. But when you talk about looking further ahead, are you

:52:18.:52:22.

not just building up bigger problems rose`mac absolutely. We all know

:52:23.:52:28.

that. But when you do not have the money in the, what do you do? We set

:52:29.:52:33.

our budget last week, and the figures it was based on, some of

:52:34.:52:36.

them were estimates. When the actuals came in, during the council

:52:37.:52:42.

meeting itself, we found we were ?450,000 that are off. So we put

:52:43.:52:46.

that straight back in. `` that are off. Back into services like P3.

:52:47.:52:54.

That could be the lifeline for them. So it is not as bleak as it sounds?

:52:55.:52:59.

It is very bleak, but where we get a little glimmer of hope, we are using

:53:00.:53:02.

that to protect 0 little glimmer of hope, we are using

:53:03.:53:03.

that to protect the services that we want to preserve. A similar story

:53:04.:53:08.

from Framework, that helps homeless people, facing a massive cut, 80%.

:53:09.:53:13.

The first thing I said when I realised we would have to make these

:53:14.:53:16.

kind of decisions is that we were sorry, that they were in this

:53:17.:53:21.

situation. It is deeply regrettable that we are having to make cuts of

:53:22.:53:26.

this nature. The supporting people budget, the budget that supports

:53:27.:53:30.

organisations like Framework, is being cut by 0

:53:31.:53:30.

organisations like Framework, is being cut by the Government. That is

:53:31.:53:35.

reflected in the decisions we are having to make. Unfortunately, these

:53:36.:53:44.

are the people... Yet, you realise that further down the line, this

:53:45.:53:47.

will cost more, for the NHS, policing. I could not agree more.

:53:48.:53:58.

False economy? Making these cuts now or a false economy for the future? I

:53:59.:54:04.

do not think so, necessarily. I think people realise we have less

:54:05.:54:09.

money. We are sorry we have less money and we are good to have to do

:54:10.:54:13.

things in a lot different way. We will have to prioritise what we

:54:14.:54:17.

want, what we want to achieve... Have you not always have to

:54:18.:54:21.

prioritise? We are physically than to have to stop doing some of the

:54:22.:54:23.

things 0 to have to stop doing some of the

:54:24.:54:24.

things we 0 0 to have to stop doing some of the

:54:25.:54:25.

things we presently do. There is no more money around. I cannot increase

:54:26.:54:31.

my council tax, the Government will not give me any more money. And my

:54:32.:54:36.

reserves are spoken for. The reserve... The recession may be

:54:37.:54:44.

over, but the structural... What about those people who are

:54:45.:54:47.

campaigning to save Snibston? I consulted my electorate. On where

:54:48.:54:53.

they wanted to see savings, and where they wanted the money for a

:54:54.:54:56.

taste. They wanted me to prioritise my spending on vulnerable persons,

:54:57.:55:02.

children, health, highways, and unfortunately for Snibston, it was

:55:03.:55:07.

at the bottom of the pile of things that people chose to spend money on.

:55:08.:55:13.

We have taken a percentage away. And I am afraid I cannot make a special

:55:14.:55:17.

exception for Snibston when I had the same sort of pressures that

:55:18.:55:21.

Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire do. Some people would say that you have

:55:22.:55:26.

ticked high`profile services to cut, like homeless `` like

:55:27.:55:30.

homelessness, deliberately, proving a point. That 0

:55:31.:55:33.

homelessness, deliberately, proving a point. That is not the case, I

:55:34.:55:36.

would never use of vulnerable people as political pawns, that would be

:55:37.:55:40.

against `` offensive to me, personally. You have more than 1000

:55:41.:55:46.

statutory obligations as councils, things that you have to do. How many

:55:47.:55:50.

of those do you think you will still be able to provide in the future? If

:55:51.:55:55.

it is a statutory obligation, we will provide it, as simple as that.

:55:56.:56:00.

We may provide it differently, but we 0

:56:01.:56:00.

We may provide it differently, but we will still provide 0

:56:01.:56:00.

We may provide it differently, but we will still provide it. Will you

:56:01.:56:04.

become more like commissioning bodies in the future? I do not

:56:05.:56:11.

necessarily think we need to go down that avenue. I 0

:56:12.:56:14.

necessarily think we need to go down that avenue. I think what we are

:56:15.:56:16.

going to have to do is look at the provisions of services in a very

:56:17.:56:22.

different way, and ask a lot of people to help themselves, and also

:56:23.:56:27.

to demand management, we need to stop people automatically coming to

:56:28.:56:31.

the council for things and help them to help themselves. As we said

:56:32.:56:35.

before, one of the key things we really have to do is get this bond

:56:36.:56:43.

with the NHS going right. There is not enough money left in the budgets

:56:44.:56:47.

of councils to do all the statutory services and the other stuff that

:56:48.:56:51.

people want us to do. I thought there was a glimmer of hope in the

:56:52.:56:55.

last few days, because Eric Pickles was saying, we are a wealthy

:56:56.:56:59.

country. And I thought that was refreshing to hear, because we are a

:57:00.:57:02.

wealthy country. It just does not feel like it for most people. We

:57:03.:57:07.

need to prioritise what is important, and I do not 0

:57:08.:57:08.

need to prioritise what is important, and I do not think the

:57:09.:57:11.

Government is doing that. The attack on local government budgets has been

:57:12.:57:15.

ferocious. Budgets have been cut far more than at any other part of

:57:16.:57:19.

Government. I'm sorry to say, that is about the Government shifting the

:57:20.:57:22.

blame to 0 is about the Government shifting the

:57:23.:57:24.

blame to the local level. You have us here in the spotlight today, we

:57:25.:57:29.

do not want to do this, we are responsible for the budgets, but we

:57:30.:57:33.

are telling the Government land and clear that they have cut too far. ``

:57:34.:57:41.

loud and clear. I am shaking my head in despair because I absolutely

:57:42.:57:44.

agree with that, I am despairing about the fact that the Government

:57:45.:57:49.

have clearly cut too far. We as local authorities that want to

:57:50.:57:53.

provide services are finding ourselves in this situation, where

:57:54.:57:58.

in a wealthy country, we are unable to do that. Do you agree with Eric

:57:59.:58:06.

Pickles? We are certainly a wealthy country and we are struggling with

:58:07.:58:09.

the money we have, to provide the services which he `` which we have

:58:10.:58:16.

historically provided. But I cannot see any government going back to how

:58:17.:58:19.

things work, we do have a structural deficit and we have to operate

:58:20.:58:22.

within their means that we have got. Time now for a round`up of the

:58:23.:58:25.

political stories this week with our political editor John Hess in sixty

:58:26.:58:35.

seconds. Formidably leader of Leicestershire

:58:36.:58:40.

County Council is to fight the Bosworth seat for UKIP at the next

:58:41.:58:45.

general election. He will take on the Conservative candidate, who has

:58:46.:58:49.

held the seat since 1987. Nottingham says it will soon have the largest

:58:50.:58:53.

fleet of electric buses in Europe stop the City Council is buying 11

:58:54.:58:56.

more low emission buses after getting an extra ?1.5 million from

:58:57.:59:01.

the Green bus fund. High`speed broadband is coming to more homes in

:59:02.:59:05.

Harborough. Extra investment from the District Council means to 90% of

:59:06.:59:09.

homes will be able to access fibre`optic internet. It helps the

:59:10.:59:13.

high number of home`workers and agricultural businesses.

:59:14.:59:17.

And unitary councils again, but not for a county, for a time.

:59:18.:59:23.

Mansfield's executive Mayor wants to replace all of Nottinghamshire's

:59:24.:59:27.

existing eight councils, plus the city, and create three powerful

:59:28.:59:32.

offer at ease, including one for Mansfield and central

:59:33.:59:37.

Nottinghamshire. So, the idea of unitary verities

:59:38.:59:41.

gaining some ground. How will our councils look in five years' time? I

:59:42.:59:50.

will be smaller and leaner, employing fewer people. I will be

:59:51.:59:53.

working closer with the NHS and hopefully, working more closely with

:59:54.:59:57.

other councils. Ayes briefly, what is yet to come as regards cuts? I

:59:58.:00:04.

always say to my city Mayor, 95% of what we do is above and beyond

:00:05.:00:07.

politics. Let's work together with the money we have, with the benefit

:00:08.:00:12.

of the people as a whole. What about cuts? Samak the year that is about

:00:13.:00:16.

to start is 0 cuts? Samak the year that is about

:00:17.:00:19.

to start is bad, but the year after that is even worse. A lot of smaller

:00:20.:00:23.

councils will be struggling by that point. But you have to hope, it is

:00:24.:00:29.

also general election year and I hope we will see a gingerbread

:00:30.:00:30.

ration. That's the Sunday Politics in the

:00:31.:00:35.

East Midlands. `` I hope we will see a change of direction. Thanks to

:00:36.:00:39.

direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,

:00:40.:00:47.

back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking

:00:48.:00:51.

about the weather. What could be more British? It has been

:00:52.:00:54.

practically the only topic of conversation for the past few

:00:55.:00:57.

weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,

:00:58.:01:02.

between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.

:01:03.:01:08.

That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the

:01:09.:01:13.

author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line

:01:14.:01:22.

or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was

:01:23.:01:28.

Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.

:01:29.:01:32.

UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to

:01:33.:01:38.

their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very

:01:39.:01:41.

fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband

:01:42.:01:44.

to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government

:01:45.:01:48.

failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual

:01:49.:01:52.

argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate

:01:53.:01:56.

change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't

:01:57.:02:01.

think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly

:02:02.:02:05.

because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The

:02:06.:02:09.

polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm

:02:10.:02:13.

a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not

:02:14.:02:17.

sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts

:02:18.:02:22.

David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those

:02:23.:02:26.

huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he

:02:27.:02:31.

has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate

:02:32.:02:36.

change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in

:02:37.:02:41.

2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and

:02:42.:02:45.

pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything

:02:46.:02:48.

This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,

:02:49.:02:53.

they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government

:02:54.:02:57.

is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by

:02:58.:03:00.

the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to

:03:01.:03:05.

approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.

:03:06.:03:15.

What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down

:03:16.:03:20.

Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,

:03:21.:03:24.

the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than

:03:25.:03:28.

green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed

:03:29.:03:31.

Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there

:03:32.:03:34.

isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems

:03:35.:03:40.

expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further

:03:41.:03:43.

south because of climate change Or if it is, it is beyond our

:03:44.:03:48.

knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's

:03:49.:03:53.

saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science

:03:54.:03:58.

at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate

:03:59.:04:01.

change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had

:04:02.:04:05.

no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in

:04:06.:04:12.

the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual

:04:13.:04:15.

phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour

:04:16.:04:19.

Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a

:04:20.:04:23.

fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather

:04:24.:04:28.

than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,

:04:29.:04:30.

they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest

:04:31.:04:36.

summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that

:04:37.:04:42.

can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is

:04:43.:04:48.

difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that

:04:49.:04:51.

case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,

:04:52.:04:56.

what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the

:04:57.:05:02.

interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come

:05:03.:05:08.

out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we

:05:09.:05:12.

can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick

:05:13.:05:15.

O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.

:05:16.:05:20.

Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise

:05:21.:05:25.

reflection on that. They got 18 , 23% last year. The case he is making

:05:26.:05:31.

is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour

:05:32.:05:33.

voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP

:05:34.:05:39.

that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of

:05:40.:05:42.

social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their

:05:43.:05:46.

insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly

:05:47.:05:51.

well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to

:05:52.:05:55.

the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for

:05:56.:06:00.

Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a

:06:01.:06:05.

very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a

:06:06.:06:09.

commentator rather than head of communications for a political

:06:10.:06:14.

party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome

:06:15.:06:20.

priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop

:06:21.:06:24.

of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic

:06:25.:06:30.

safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be

:06:31.:06:36.

left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no

:06:37.:06:41.

longer exists. And it is a real real, dramatic crisis. The second is

:06:42.:06:50.

that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,

:06:51.:06:53.

I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get

:06:54.:06:57.

it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two

:06:58.:07:03.

weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see

:07:04.:07:08.

how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there

:07:09.:07:11.

have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been

:07:12.:07:14.

scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country

:07:15.:07:18.

is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding

:07:19.:07:27.

pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the

:07:28.:07:32.

safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory

:07:33.:07:37.

reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?

:07:38.:07:42.

No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not

:07:43.:07:49.

up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think

:07:50.:07:52.

the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a

:07:53.:07:57.

full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had

:07:58.:08:00.

some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,

:08:01.:08:03.

instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of

:08:04.:08:08.

money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when

:08:09.:08:11.

members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,

:08:12.:08:15.

the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties

:08:16.:08:20.

ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made

:08:21.:08:25.

deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a

:08:26.:08:28.

centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about

:08:29.:08:32.

this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is

:08:33.:08:36.

it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them

:08:37.:08:41.

look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You

:08:42.:08:45.

can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But

:08:46.:08:50.

the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate

:08:51.:08:55.

the poor and extend opportunity One of the worst moments for the Tories

:08:56.:08:58.

was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact

:08:59.:09:02.

that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the

:09:03.:09:06.

largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.

:09:07.:09:11.

The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't

:09:12.:09:16.

vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of

:09:17.:09:19.

them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think

:09:20.:09:23.

it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than

:09:24.:09:28.

trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!

:09:29.:09:31.

The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I

:09:32.:09:39.

want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of

:09:40.:09:45.

February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 2th,

:09:46.:09:53.

there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an

:09:54.:09:57.

improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up

:09:58.:10:01.

one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden

:10:02.:10:06.

change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is

:10:07.:10:09.

completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his

:10:10.:10:15.

nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and

:10:16.:10:18.

depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.

:10:19.:10:23.

Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot

:10:24.:10:30.

shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women

:10:31.:10:35.

to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.

:10:36.:10:40.

Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less

:10:41.:10:43.

likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives

:10:44.:10:49.

and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential

:10:50.:10:56.

demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the

:10:57.:10:59.

public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they

:11:00.:11:03.

really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the

:11:04.:11:08.

following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just

:11:09.:11:12.

increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour

:11:13.:11:17.

seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told

:11:18.:11:22.

that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It

:11:23.:11:27.

looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of

:11:28.:11:33.

rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the

:11:34.:11:38.

faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,

:11:39.:11:41.

they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female

:11:42.:11:46.

face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is

:11:47.:11:51.

proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?

:11:52.:11:58.

Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a

:11:59.:12:02.

kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.

:12:03.:12:07.

The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As

:12:08.:12:13.

opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very

:12:14.:12:18.

male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in

:12:19.:12:20.

constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change

:12:21.:12:26.

things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they

:12:27.:12:38.

work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense

:12:39.:12:44.

advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will

:12:45.:12:50.

that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see

:12:51.:12:54.

how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going

:12:55.:13:03.

to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour

:13:04.:13:06.

Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think

:13:07.:13:12.

it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I

:13:13.:13:16.

would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?

:13:17.:13:24.

I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her

:13:25.:13:28.

stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week

:13:29.:13:36.

off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is

:13:37.:13:41.

Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.

:13:42.:13:44.

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