13/07/2014 Sunday Politics East Midlands

Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay

As the campaign heads for the final furlong,

what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?

The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.

David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.

Many of those tipped for promotion are women.

So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or

And don't know whether to support Germany or

And in the East Midlands: political guide to the World Cup.

An MP calls for an inquiry into allegations of abuse

Plus the fight to save dozens of libraries threatened with closure.

It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the

Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis

we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.

And for top political analysis you may

as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick

David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.

The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be

in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.

The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,

reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox

is in line for a return to the political front line.

But there's general agreement that women will do well and some

of the old men in suits guard will do badly.

Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.

It's good to make parliament more representative.

But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create

injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.

And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being

accelerated too far too fast and they come to

a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.

I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is

going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not

be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It

is an un-written pact in that the media and the government have a

great interest in talking it up The government says, haven't we

refreshed ourselves? Generally it doesn't refresh the government.

David Cameron wants to send out a new signal. You're going to see the

old guard getting a P 45 and you will see a lot of women come in and

a lot of younger men. We will find there will be a lot of resignations.

A lot of, dear Prime Minister, as I told you 18 months ago, I want to

move on. Because the Conservatives have this perception of not being

very good with women and not being good with black and ethnic minority

voters, they are going to want to do something about that. Why did he not

do it before? This reshuffle might be the triumph of the a list. A lot

of the women coming through the ranks have been from the a list

which was a half measure because they knew they could not bring all

of them in. You are going to see more women but that is a result of a

long-term strategy. David Cameron is not the world's most raging

feminist. He is doing this for practical reasons. He knows he has

an image problem for the party and he has to solve it. He was stung by

that picture of the all-male bench at Prime Minister's Questions

because visibly it gave you the problem that you have been talking

about. I do not think he has allowed it to be all-male since that

embarrassing image. I can understand the criticism made of this approach

if it was the case that all the women being promoted by talentless

but you have to be very harsh to look at them and say that they would

have much less to offer than the likes of Andrew Lansley. You can be

pro-feminist. The tests for David Cameron is that having raised

expectations he has to give them substantial jobs. They have to be

given departments to run or big portfolios to carry. If they are

given media campaign positions in the run-up to the election it looks

perfunctorily. He is under some trouble to perhaps suggest a female

commissioner to the European Union Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has

made clear that if he proposes a woman candidate they will get a

better job. Saying they would like ten out of the 28 to be women. We

are going to get the name of the British candidate at the same time

as the reshuffle. The first face-to-face meeting, he will be

able to put a name. There are other names in the frame. People like

Archie Norman. That come from? His name is in the frame. There would be

great scepticism of giving it to Andrew Lansley. People would think

he was the man who mucked up the reform of the NHS. Who is it going

to be? Either a woman or a man. I would not be surprised if they go

for someone believe dynamic. Someone who would square the party. Would

that not mean a by-election? It might. She is a high profile

Eurosceptic. She is a very competent former banker. It would be the smart

choice. I have no idea but my favourite rumour is Michael Howard.

That had some legs for a while. The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street

predict with confidence that the PM is going to promote more women

in his cabinet reshuffle. The move can be seen as part

of a move across British public life to do more to make our institutions

less male and less white. But as the list

of schemes to encourage diversity grows ever-longer, have we abandoned

the idea of appointment by merit? Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for

new trains. It does not get more macho than the Crossrail project.

When Crossrail looked at the construction industry they realise

that less than 20% was made up construction industry they realise

women and they asked, can we fix it? They are trying with a recruitment

drive that has brought in female engineers like this woman. She even

has a tunnel named after her. Having more female engineers and

construction brings a bigger range of opinions, a bigger range of

ideas, more diversity, into the industry, and makes it better as a

whole. It is the issue being grappled in another male dominated

workplace, the Cabinet. There is about to be a reach shuffle and the

rumour is David Cameron is going to promote a lot of female ministers.

It was a lack of promotion that annoyed Harriet Harman this week.

She claimed Gordon Brown did not make her Deputy Prime Minister

because she was a woman. It was strange that in a hard-fought highly

contested election to be deputy leader of the Labour Party, and

having won against men in the Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy

leader of the Labour Party I discovered that I was not to be

appointed as Deputy Prime Minister. For women in this country, no matter

how able they are, the matter how hard they might work, they are still

not equal. There are initiatives to make the world feel more equal. In

the City the EU wants a quarter for women in the boardroom but that goal

of making 40% of the top floor female. At the BBC the boss of the

TV division says no panel show should ever be all-male. In the ever

glamorous movie business the British film Institute announced their new

thematic system to get lottery funding projects improving diversity

on screen and off and helping social mobility. Employers like Crossrail

are not allowed to positively discriminate but under the quality

act of 2010 if two candidate for a job are just as good you are allowed

to base your decision on characteristics like race, sexuality

and gender. Some worry it has chipped away at the idea of hiring

on merit. A woman and three men going for a job, two of the men are

really good and the woman is not quite as good but she gets the job

anyway. That will create injustice, a feeling that she did not deserve

the job, resentment. It does not advance equality in society at all.

On this project they want to leave a concrete legacy of a more diverse

construction industry. The question is, what tools do you use when it

comes to the rest of society? I'm joined now by

Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a columnist for the Independent

and by Munira Mirza, the deputy mayor of London responsible

for education and culture. Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches

though. Should David Cameron be promoting women? He is going to do

it anyway. He should have a long time ago. It does not feel quite

right that a few months before the election it would do the party a lot

of good to be seen as a party properly reflective of the entire

population. He should promote women because they are women? I think he

should think about lots of different factors, whether the people he wants

promote have proven themselves in their current reefs, whether they

are good performers in the media, whether they represent different

parts of the party, but the main principle is to promote on basis of

merit. There are many talented women who fill that description. It should

be that merit is the important thing rather than what you were born with.

The thing about positive discrimination as it flies in the

face of that kind of principle. You are shaking your head. We have

always had positive discrimination. Men of a certain class have

appointed in their own image because they feel most comfortable with

that. We have had unspoken positive discrimination in this country and

every other country throughout history. We are asking as women all

minorities, let us get into the same game. What do you say? You cannot

solve the racism or the sexism of the past by more racism and sexism.

It is not the past. There are complex reasons why a smaller number

of women will appear in certain industries. It has a lot to do with

childcare, education, expected. You cannot short cut that by setting a

target. That is not how you achieve equality. Things are changing

target. That is not how you achieve engineering and so on but it

target. That is not how you achieve hidden barriers. Dot. Either they

are not as good or they do not want it, which is just how we persuade

are not as good or they do not want it, which ourselves that it is not

happening, or there are barriers. How we judge meritocracy is at the

heart of it. Are lots of industries won there are not that many women,

such as engineering. We need more engineers generally. I think it is

fine to try to encourage more women to study that subject. By setting a

target you put pressure on an organisation. You tried to

target you put pressure on an the complex reasons why women do not

go into those sectors. Minister? I personally wouldn't mind

this. I hear the disgruntled man and I want to come -- them to come with

us. You're choosing people on the basis of traits they were born

with. Are there too many Indian doctors in the NHS? I would argue

not. Given that we tend to have male prime ministers rather than female

ones, and we don't see another female one coming down the pipe very

quickly... female one coming down the pipe very

list forever, wasn't it the kind of shock to the system that made a

visible change in female representation,

visible change in female Scotland, why take the risk? All of

these things should be the case because they are in the best

interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK but we want the powers to

enable us to grow our economy faster, to be productive, and

overtime increased the prosperity of people living in Scotland. We also

want powers over our social security system so that we can create a

system that meets our needs, one that also has a safety net for the

most vulnerable people in our society. Independence is about

letting us decide our own priorities. You didn't answer my

question, you cannot guarantee you would be able to keep the pound

within a monetary union, stay in NATO and the EU, you cannot

guarantee you could produce any of these things, correct? I would argue

that we can because these things are also in the interest of the rest of

the UK. No country can be prevented from using the pound, I suggest we

use that within a formal monetary union. We have had the UK minister

quoted in the Guardian saying the position of the UK Government right

now is one based on campaign rhetoric and following a yes vote,

of course there would be a currency union. Who is that minister? The

Minister is unnamed, but nevertheless that story in the

Guardian was a solid one and not substantially denied. So you are

basing your monetary policy on one on named minister in one story?

Basing it on Common sense because monetary union would be in the best

interests for Scotland but also overwhelmingly in the interests of

the rest of the UK, given their trading relationship with Scotland

and the contribution Scotland's exports make. We are having a very

good debate and the UK Government and the no campaign, and this is not

a criticism, want to talk up in -- uncertainty to make people feel

scared, but after independence there will be constructed process of

negotiation. Let's stick with the monetary union because most

economists agree it would be very good for an independent Scotland to

have a monetary union but George Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander

are unequivocal, they say you won't get it. You claim they are bluffing

but again you cannot guarantee that so why the risk? I would say the

benefits of independence are substantial but I would also say to

George Osborne and his counterparts in the other parties that it would

be a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of half

a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of

half. What we are doing is making a case that is based on common sense

and voters in Scotland will listen to that case being put forward by

the other side as well, and they will come to a judgement of the

common-sense position. Let's look at EU membership because you haven t

been able to guarantee the monetary union. When President Barroso said

that a seamless transition to EU membership for an independent

Scotland was anything but certain, and one said it could even be

impossible, you dismissed him because he was standing down, but

been -- venue EU president says the same, do you dismissed him? What we

are doing... I should say at the outset of this, we have said

repeatedly to the UK Government let's go jointly and ask for a

formal opinion on the EU commission. The EU commission have

said they will only do that at this stage if the UK Government ask for

it, they are point blank refusing to do that, you have to ask why? It is

in their interests to talk up uncertainty. Scotland is an integral

part of the European Union, we have been for 40 years, we comply with

the rules and regulations... Mr Juncker knows all of that but he

still says it will be anything but a seamless transition. He said you

could not join the European Union by sending a letter, that is not our

proposal. We set down a robust proposal and the timescale we think

is reasonable under these circumstances. There are many

nationals of other states living in Scotland right now, if we were to be

outside of the European Union for any period of time, something the

current treaty doesn't even provide for, they would lose their right to

stay here. The interests of Scotland and the interests of European Union

are in favour of a seamless transition. It comes down to common

sense and people in Scotland will make

sense and people in Scotland will their own judgement on who is

talking the common-sense. What about NATO, two years ago you told

Newsnight the SNP's position is that we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a

democratic debate, we looked at whether it would be in the interests

of an independent Scotland, which forms a significant part of the

territory of the North Atlantic and the party changed its mind. It did

so in a thoroughly democratic way. That is the nature of democracy

Would you accept the protection of the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is

no doubt the SNP's position is that we do not want nuclear weapons in

Scotland. That is not what I asked. The world rid themselves of nuclear

weapons. One of the interesting point is of the 28 member countries

of Natal 25 do not have nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland...

I asked if you would accept the nuclear umbrella. The key feature of

NATO's military dog train is now clear shrike. We would accept the

basis of which NATO is founded but we would argue two things. We want

Trident removed from Scotland rather than have a situation where might we

are spending ?100 billion over the next generation replacing Trident

and we would argue within the international community that the

world should move much more quickly to rid itself of nuclear weapons.

That is the principal position and won the SNP has held consistently

for many years. You would get rid of one of the key parts of the NATO

deterrent based in Scotland. You would kick that out. You would not

accept all of the club rules because you do not like the idea of nuclear.

Why would they like a member like you in? Because Scotland is a

significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic. You do not

subscribe to the rules. 25 of the member states of NATO are

non-nuclear members. You are saying you do not follow the doctrine. NATO

has said it wants to move away from reliance on nuclear weapons. An

independent Scotland would be entering the majority mainstream of

NATO as a country that did not have nuclear weapons. By leading by

example our moral authority and encouraging others to do likewise

would be increased. Money and oil, the finance minister has said that

an independent Scotland would increase public spending by 3% a

year. He would pay for that by borrowing. Your First Minister says

he is going to stash money in an oil fund. You're going to borrow and

save. How does that work? There are two points. Firstly in terms of the

outlook for finances and what is one of the central debates of this

referendum campaign, austerity that we know will continue if we stay as

part of the Westminster system versus prosperity. The economy can

afford a higher level of increase in public spending while we continue to

have deficit levels at a sustainable level. What is the point of

borrowing and saving at the same time? People who have a mortgage and

the savings account would not themselves what the wisdom of that

is. This is based on recommendations of our expert fiscal Commission that

as borrowing reduces to sustainable levels it makes sense to start

saving a proportion of our oil wealth. In Norway, which has many

similarities to Scotland, they have an oil fund worth ?500 billion.

Scotland is part of the Westminster system is sitting on a share of UK

debt. We can continue to allow our oil wealth, our vast oil wealth to

be mismanaged or we can decide we are going to manage that resource

better in the years to come. Your figures do not add up unless you are

about oil prices and revenue and you have been consistently wrong in your

predictions. Last year you forecast that revenues would be the .7

billion more than they actually work -- 3.7 billion. The cost of the

Scottish school system gone. There were particular reasons for that in

terms of interruption to production and bigger levels of investment

Used ill have to find the money Let me explain. They are based on robust

assumptions, firstly a production estimates that is in line with the

estimates of the oil and gas industry. Use of figures that are

based on production of 10 billion barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been

wrong as well. It is 24 billion left to be recovered. That is what is in

the UK Government's oil and gas strategy so production in line with

industry estimates and an oil price of $110 per barrel which is flat in

cash terms would be a real terms reduction. The Department of energy

is estimating $128 per barrel so our estimate compared to that is

cautious. These are robust estimates based on robust assumptions. Except

they have been wrong. Finally, we hear a lot from you and your fellow

nationalists, you want a Scandinavian style social democracy,

you know how to spend the money but you never tell us about social

democratic levels of taxation. Also should grizzlies have higher levels

of tax in Scotland does at the moment -- all social grizzlies. I

want a Scottish style of social democracy. Free education, free

medicines and balancing the books every single year. We want to get

more people into work in Scotland, raise the level of distribution in

the Labour market and make the economy more productive so we are

raising the overall tax revenue Over the last 33 years we have

generated more taxpayer head of population than is the case and the

rest of the UK. Those last 33 years, some of those years oil prices would

have been high and in others they would have been law but we take

different decisions. A report showed that if we go as part of the

Westminster system down the plate -- route of replacing Trident then the

cost will be as high as ?4 billion every year. Our share of that is the

hundred million pounds a year. Let us get access to our own resources

so we can make different and better decisions about how to spend the

resources we have. You are promising Scandinavian style social democratic

levels of public spending but you say you will not need a top rate of

tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia has, that all 25%, which is what

Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You are going to have the spending but

none of the taxes that make it possible in Scandinavia. For

mischievous reasons you are met -- misrepresenting what I am saying.

The Scottish economy can afford it and we want to generate more wealth

in our economy. We want to use the existing resources Scotland has We

are the 14th richest country in the world in terms of what we produce.

We do not want to be wasting resources. We want to be spending

resources on the things that other priority for the people of Scotland.

These are the benefits and the opportunities really get if we take

the opportunity of voting yes and becoming independent.

libraries under threat of closure ` could volunteers keep them open

They are really just going to struggle. It's not just a c`se of

standing behind the counter issuing books, there's a lot more involved.

I'd love to volunteer, as long as they don't mind le

the future holds for our politicians. And, looking b`ck on a

My attendance record and my voting partichpation

Of I am joined by our guest this week. It has been a major political

story this weekend it has bdcome an issue in the East Midlands. The

Government has ordered an enquiry into her allegations of widdspread

abuse by powerful public figures in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s were

handled. Now one of our MPs says that it has been happening here

John Mann once enquiry into claims of abuse in Nottinghamshire. I have

had six people coming to me, making allegations about a range of

offenders, and connected allegations, unconnected suggested

perpetrators. What is common amongst them is that all reported to the

police, not a single case h`s been prosecuted. Not one out of the sex.

Nottinghamshire Police have told us that after John Mann's allegations

they have a current investigation involving three victims and are

looking again at the cases of three people which have been investigated

before. Queries this all gohng to end? I hope that there will be

justice for the bit is. That is what we have always got me thinkhng

about. These cranes are forl a `` these crimes are horrific. H hope

that the victims who feel that these crimes were swept under the carpet

will now have the opportunity to have their cases heard and that

those who carried out these horrific those who carried out these horrific

crimes are brought to justice. This is an issue which will not go away.

These allegations are about historical events. These evdnts

could be even more damaging to our trust in politicians here and now. I

think all parties take thesd issues really seriously. It is not a

partisan issue so much as m`king sure that all checks and balances

are in place, look up properly and when allegations are maybe H looked

at thoroughly. Do you support the Government's moved to hold ` public

enquiry? I do. A few weeks `go I said that we need an overarching

inquiry and I am pleased thd Government have said that there is

going to be an overarching hnquiry. Cyril Smith, a Labour MP was

campaigning on Cyril Smith, I remember growing up in Greater

around Cyril Smith and rumotrs that around Cyril Smith and rumotrs that

the authorities had not let into these issues properly. And so I hope

that 20 or 30 years down thd line, this enquiry that the Government has

set up can look into all thdse issues, because the key thing is

getting justice for the victims of these horrific crimes. Therd is a

concern that as we look to the past escape divert resources awax from

current abuse cases. One thhng that kept me awake at night as ldader of

the County Council was child protection issues because it is so

critical and life destroying when it is not looked into properly and

prevented. I was confident with the team that we had in Derbyshhre. I

think that other local authorities, regardless of party, take this issue

incredibly seriously and will continue to do so.

This week Leicestershire Cotnty Council ended its public

consultation on its decision to hand libraries over two communithes to be

run by volunteers and admitted that they could close if no one comes

forward. This is one of 36 community

libraries that Leicestershire County Council want to support comlunities

to run. Many users here lovd their local library and do not want it to

change. I love reading, I love my library, and it is the main thing in

my life. I understand that the council need to save money, but I do

not think that closing the library is the right way to do it. We moved

here last year and the libr`ry was one of the first places that we came

to. We have made lots of new friends. I love reading and I want

my son to as well. I'm keephng my mind open about volunteering. I

think it will struggle, it hs not just the case of standing bdhind the

counter issuing book, there's a lot more involved. I would love to

volunteer, as long as the domain name bringing my sidekick. To cancel

it had taken the petition to County Hall. People pay their taxes, their

council tax, they expect certain services to be delivered and one of

those services is the local library. They wanted to be funded by

the County Council and will be staffed by professional librarians.

In a statement, Leicestershhre County Council say they will be

analysing the responses of this consultation, which closed on

Monday, and a report will bd going to Cabinet in September. Thdy go on

to say that they understand people value their libraries and w`nt them

to continue as community hubs. The community here is already trying to

facility, not the library, the local facility, not the library, the local

pub. We had a 98% positive vote to say that we wanted to save the pub.

But we want to turn it into much more than that, we do not h`ve a

such facilities, so we want to have such facilities, so we want to have

a small shop, be able to offer perhaps a function room, a coffee

bar, parcel drop, picking up prescriptions. It becomes a much

are former leader of the Cotnty are former leader of the Cotnty

Council, dealing Leicestershire could be doing work? I think that

Leicestershire's model of trying to hold onto its libraries this way is

interesting. When I was leader of the County Council I ran culture

personally because I took it seriously. We brought services into

libraries from different departments at the council to keep them vibrant

and vital. This is a differdnt model, they've consulted ovdr it

widely. I think communities do value their libraries and therefore they

will want to help the counchl in difficult times to support the

service. Should the council be doing work? The council faces the legacy

of an economic recession. Which we are recovering from now. Thdre is a

long way to go with it. That means that there will have to be different

ways of doing things across the public sector. This is about the

money. It is not available, so it makes sense to involve the community

in this way. What is driving this is the huge cuts that the Tory `Liberal

Government have imposed across local governments across the land.

Leicestershire Government and Derbyshire Government have defined

cuts. That is the problem hdre. The Government has made decisions about

the funding it gets to councils and councils are being forced to

respond. Sadly, in this casd, they are closing libraries. Wait like he

is saying it is your fault. Am always interested when Labotr see

that their cuts are terribld. The Labour Leader says that thex would

stick to these conservative lands and they got into power. Wh`t we are

actually saying is that we recognise the mess that David Cameron and

George Osborne have made with the public finances and we are just

being honest that if we get into Government next year then wd will

inherent a very unbalanced budget. George Osborne actually prolised to

balance the books by 2015, he is going to feel on that. But he is

saying that he will inherit your mess. He has been in Governlent now

for over four years. The thhng is that people clearly do love their

libraries and they are prep`red to fight for them. Leicestershhre

County Council said they had 20 0 responses to the consultation and

1400 people turned out to mdetings. People are very interested `nd want

to care for their libraries. I support that, they are very

important. But the economy hs in recovery after a disastrous period

under Labour. We have taken time to recover otherwise would be to have

had to make more severe cuts. People do not like the cuts, that hs

perhaps why you lost Derbyshire People do not like the cuts but they

are being made in the national interest. They are being done over a

full parliamentary term. Ed Miliband said this week that people would

support people powered publhc services. Is that not the s`me thing

as the big society? We have said that we want to default mord money

so that they can make decishons To so that they can make decishons To

be fair, the Government are doing this as well know. These ard the big

buzzwords and public policy. We are in favour of that. The Government

had taken steps this week. We have gone further... How? Where hs your

money going to come from? Wd want the money from the National

Department for local authorhties to devolve money to local level. We are

interested in projects wherd local people come together and run

services. But Leicestershird what is happening is that the Countx Council

has taken decisions close lhbraries because of cut that they have got to

find because of what central Government has imposed upon them.

Next week Derbyshire has announced `` is announcing ?17 million of cuts

and they are blaming your Government for it. The leader said that the

Government has left us no choice and we are now thinking the unthinkable.

I think Derbyshire County Council has been particularly badly run I

decisions have been deferred which has made them worse. Money has been

given to organisations that printed T`shirts about Margaret Thatcher's

death and all sorts of things. You are saying they have wasted money?

Yes, they have put off making decisions. They are Labour `uthority

that must be worrying to thd rest of the Labour Party because thdy have

messed things up. It is the end of the political year. Parliamdnt rises

in just two weeks's time and when MPs return in autumn it will be in

the final run`up to the gendral election. We will be getting the

views of our political editor about how that election fight is shaping

up in the East Midlands. Here is our look back at the highlights of the

year so far. Your Sunday politics is in Brussels

this week for a special programme here in the European Parlialent

What can I say? Queries that chocolate shop? Rain mac I would

love to show you inside but the races following in. My partx's

record is better than your Lib Dems. It is pushing the Lib Dems hnto

fifth place. I will not apologise. Some people would say that `s Labour

authorities you have picked high`profile services to cut. Not so

many people are wanting to foster or adopt children, I think that more

people should. How are you going to regulate the drilling? We h`ve come

to Newark market to do the cupcake challenge. Being a backbench MP can

be very rewarding indeed. Ddnnis Skinner shouted out, are yot on work

experience? I know what it hs like. My phone has been playing up. Maybe

it was that call for the vote of no confidence. Might have had something

to do with it. It was a black Dalek, fight Dalek and great Dalek and I

lost one of them. It is likd your life just flashing before your eyes.

Let us look ahead to what is in store in the run`up to the general

election. What have in the big themes in the East Midlands? Three

things spring out for me. One thing is that the coalition are still

going after four years. It lay appear to be a bit like a t`ndem,

with David Cameron holding onto the handlebars, Nick Clegg going behind

him. Basically it is holding together. The other thing is the

economy. The East Midlands hs very much in the driving seat of the

revival. The politics, the Newark by`election, the European

elections, that has definitdly given the Tories and the Prime Minister

rebounds. Here is one of thd reasons for that Tory bones. `` bounce. They

may have put UKIP in a box. What should we be looking out for? The

parties will be increasinglx pitting those booster rockets under their

campaigns. Destination general election next May. You will find

increasingly as the Tories, the Labour Party and Liberal Delocrats

put the items in their shop window what they would do in Government. We

will have a reshuffle very soon the next couple of days, will Kdn Clarke

remaining Cabinet and to wh`t extent will the Prime Minister be `ble to

promote women at the top table. That has a knock`on effect for Ed

Miliband, will he start to shuffle his pack? And then Scotland, the

referendum result in September. That will have a huge effect, not only on

British politics, but on thd role of English cities. What would be the

knock`on effect for that? You are involved in labour's campaign. Is it

just coincidence is the East Midlands going to be this bhg battle

ground in the coming general election? I think it is just pointed

and is that we have got to outstanding Labour MPs, frol the

East Midlands. But you are right, the East Midlands are going to be a

big battle ground. The Tory membership in these seats is

actually falling. But at thd same time they are getting big money

donations in. So I think th`t if you live in Amber Valley, where Labour

won the local elections, yot will be getting a lot of glossy litdrature

from the Tory party. But in laughter about you will also be getthng the

Labour candidate knocking on your door. It is going to be people

power. Have the Conservativds feeling as they go into the summer

break? Because you did when the Newark by`election but you had a cut

in your majority which John has just alluded to. That could translate to

losing a lot of marginal se`ts here in the East Midlands. I am sure that

those knocks on the door or something for everybody to look

forward to. We have won a by`election in Amber Valley already.

On top of their European success, there is an agreement betwedn John

and I that this is a key battle ground and there will be a lot of

national attention on our area because it will determine pretty

much who forms a Government. East Midlands economy is growing very

quickly, new report says we have seen the biggest growth in the

number of jobs in the country. I am pleased that there are more jobs in

the East Midlands economy btt what we're finding is that peopld are

still worse off. I do better or for worse off under the Tory Government,

in the East Midlands you're still worse off. It is increasingly

characterised by squeezed w`ges low pay and part`time or zero otr

contracts. People are in work but what are not `` is not as mtch as

what they did before. There are more cuts to come, job losses as well,

that is not good news in thd run`up to a general election. Cartoon ever

popular and it is our job to explain why they have been necessarx `` cuts

are never popular. We need to show what progress we have made hn

rebuilding the economy. The fact we are getting significant growth is

good news for everybody. It is not significant growth, it is growth.

Into significant growth. George Osborne said that it should be much

more by now. Any growth can be considered a huge achievement. We

are proud of it and we will take it to the doorstep. What are they not

seeing here? What are they `voiding? Isn't that fascinating. That is what

it will all be about. The two issues that I would sum up, the Tories do

not want to talk about UKIP, Nigel Farage, will he get a nomin`tion

probably in Kent, he will bd fighting the Tories. UKIP whll be a

big problem for the Conserv`tives. For Labour, the elephant in the room

is Ed Miliband's personal poll rating. Labour are doing all key in

the polls, they are picking up local authority by`election seats, but Ed

Miliband's personal rating hs still to move. UKIP will be a big worry

for you? I am happy to talk about UKIP. I am happy to explain that

what I think has changed with the UKIP vote is that when we h`d the

County Council elections thdre was clearly a huge UKIP vote, mtch

bigger than people expected and it did damage Conservatives. What has

happened since is that in Etropean elections UKIP's support has

broadened across into labour and it is up to both of us as the

mainstream parties to make the case that the vote and the choicd in the

general election is who do xou want as Prime Minister, David Caleron or

Ed Miliband. Are you worried about UKIP? Politicians have to understand

why such huge numbers of people voted UKIP and we should not dismiss

their concerns, but I am not worried about them as such. What about your

party leader? The elephant hn the room? Of course he is the rhght man

for the job. John is going on about ratings. In the opinion polls we

have been consistently ahead of the Conservatives. The other thhng John

has not mentioned, extraordhnarily, four years ago we would havd been

talking about the Liberal Ddmocrats. They are finished. They are not

competitive in the East Midlands in the East Midlands and as

Parliamentary election and peer to four years ago. It is, and there are

none of them here to defend themselves. Time for a round`up of

some of the other political stories. Fancy making history? The ptblic has

been consulted on a new Magna Carter. They're not the North MP is

leading a nationwide discussion on radical changes to our political

system. A lot of people do not know the difference between Parlhament

and Government or central Government and local Government, we ard opening

a six`month debate with the public. The constabulary have no ch`nge to

mac train their officers to get their support worked compassionate

victim support. These honourable victims will not feel intimhdated to

speak out. The head of Derbx City Council is keen to meet the public.

He is whole `` holding local sessions every month.

That is the Sunday Politics here in the East Midlands. Thank yot to my

guests. We will be back in the autumn

will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.

So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including

a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and

Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make

a difference? It will make a difference because we have

established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and

why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent

and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed

this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed

through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international

examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon

passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of

control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled

down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for

this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a

principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,

which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous

relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a

controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is

on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church

against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is

stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who

can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who

can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is

potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of

Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of

England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please

withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court

kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of

three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that

banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,

but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to

decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament In

record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson

and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the

establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great

quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act

and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to

look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.

There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about

drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look

something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is

right or is the political establishment right? I think the

establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We

are in a unique position where all three political parties have

relatively recent experience of government so they now that security

threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation

being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I

do not see the political controversy. All three political

parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always

are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but

a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political

controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy

about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,

it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys

setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have

serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out

in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have

said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public

school. For many English football fans,

tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick

between two traditional foes Well, if you're

a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the

nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced

a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,

it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing

and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group

with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems

There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over

authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it

through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the

worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The

left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and

authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives

remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the

semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking

on Catholics South America. With one victory apiece, Germany knocking out

Brazil and Argentina beating the Dutch, tonight's final repeats that

pattern. Who will win? Angela Merkel's Germany or Argentina?

We're joined now by Britain's only Labour adviser

Should we read political significance in to the fact that the

only time England has won the World Cup was under a Labour government?

Of course. The problem is we did not qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a

Labour government. We have had some pretty shoddy results under a Labour

government. As someone under the left, are you backing Argentina

Absolutely not. I do not think it has anything to do with politics. It

is a bit of fun. People should choose it is Don Hoop plays the best

football and the Germans have been fantastic. They were great in 2 10

as well. They started this model in 2008 and that is the sort of thing

people should be supporting. Who should a Eurosceptic support? I

would not say Argentina because that is the country that has tried to

seize British sovereign territory within my lifetime. You were not

around for the Blitz. Believe it or not, I was not. There is a strong

political case to support Germany. They are probably going to win the

World Cup with a clear of -- with players of Polish origin. That sort

of cultural change they have forced themselves to go through... You talk

about them being right wing, but in fact the way that the German league

is structured, and I am an expert, is based on ownership. It is very

different from the Premier League. It is about football as a usual

good. The ticket prices are lower. The fans are involved in running the

club. It is a model that all English football clubs should emulate.

Germany had a strong football team under centre right governments and

centre left governments and a coalition. A strong football team

and a strong economy. The Conservative MP who is the arch

Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of the European Union and was for a few

weeks ago when people were making jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker he

was outraged and said you should not do that, so he could happily support

Germany. What was interesting about the authoritarian and democratic

regimes, what is great is that the World Cup is run by this open and

democratic organisation Fifa. It is similar to the EU in many regards.

Two countries led by women. Maybe gender is the thing. We did not win

under Margaret Thatcher. There's one big difference with the EU, you

cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go to a European summit. Did you know

that Italy won two world cups under Mussolini? Can we draw any

conclusions between a political system and the performance of the

football team? You can draw certain parallels between maybe national

cliches, so the Germans are efficient and effective, which might

reflect and the English are very polite so we let everyone score

first and go into the second round. We put ourselves at the back of the

queue. Is England going to qualify for the European? We are going to

win the European Championship. The first country Scotland have to play

is Germany. What could possibly go wrong? Who is going to win? Germany.

Germany. I am going to put a few bob on Argentina. Are you going to be

watching? Absolutely. Thank you This is the last Sunday Politics

for the summer. But we'll be back in early autumn

and our first programme will be live from Scotland,

the weekend before the referendum The Daily Politics is back tomorrow

at noon and we'll bring you the last PMQs before the summer

on Wednesday morning from 11:30am. Remember, if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics, unless