14/09/2014 Sunday Politics East Midlands


Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby with the latest political news, interviews and debate.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.


Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out


their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.


They released a video late last night, showing a masked man


beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.


The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.


Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.


David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.


President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder


Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as


he predicts a historic and substantial victory in


As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,


I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his


And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown


David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask


In the East Midlands, we have the it's enough to win over waverers.


In the East Midlands, we have the fastest`growing economy in the


country but step closer back to Parliament. Is


it a lame-duck administration? Late last night, as most folk were


preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried


out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar


to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,


showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken


captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,


who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life


of a second hostage from the UK Mr Haines is


the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to


his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder


as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines


family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,


"We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers


and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England


and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond


condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable


barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the


family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude


in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked


whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe


whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to


deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,


legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that


to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a


threat to humanity. Our security correspondent


Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra


emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I


would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron


are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.


They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for


instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to


kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get


hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions


to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of


options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions


and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil


facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,


they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will


have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,


because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,


that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air


strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria We


heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State


last week when he talked about building a coalition, about


authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still


waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it


will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the


question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --


arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from


government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what


was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a


result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting


to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a


result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens


their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,


that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and


see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and


American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that


would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is As


you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting


actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The


theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages


may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly


and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that


time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will


be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you


have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,


and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing


everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.


Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday


gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum


If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.


Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,


the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.


The new consensus is that it's too close to call.


If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland


was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the


opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at


the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only


37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you


can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets


narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has


the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put


the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but


that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls


were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign


-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one


percentage point different. ICM have the yes campaign back in the lead at


54% and the no campaign at 46%, but their sample size was 705 Scottish


adults, smaller than usual. Another suggests that the contest remains on


a knife edge with 49.4% against 50.6%. When fed into the poll of


polls the figures average out with yes at 49% and polls -- no at 5 %.


But some people think 18% are undecided, and it is how they vote


gets -- when they get to the polling booths that could make all the


difference. campaigner and Respect Party MP


George Galloway. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big


business, big oil, big banks, the Tories, the Orange order, all


against Scottish independence. You sure you are on right side? Yes


because the interests of working people are in staying together. This


is a troubled moment in a marriage, a very long marriage, in which some


good things and bad things have been achieved together. And there is no


doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the


minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working


people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I


have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter affair


and it's particularly bad for the children will stop that's why I am


here. You talk about working people, and particularly Scottish working


people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want


to create cannot now be done in a UK context. Why should they not have a


shot of going it alone? Because the opposite will happen. Separation


will cause a race to the bottom in taxation. Alex Salmond has already


announced he will cut the taxes on companies, corporation tax, down to


3% hello whatever it is in the rest of these islands. And business will


only be attracted to come here, country of 5 million people on if


there is low regulation, low public expenditure, low levels of taxation


for them will stop you cannot have Scandinavian social democracy on


Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the


rest of the UK, they will race Alex Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it


by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people


cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people


on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's


take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as


anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and


reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited


plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare


state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just


explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a


minute. He will be along in May The polls indicate... They say he is


only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the


next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think


that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I


think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the


Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super


Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of


people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot


base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win


the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten


on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the


faces of the government side not only that they were headed for


defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the


bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be


a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish


economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that


will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland


decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and


austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You


mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and


Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to


be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of


them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --


telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear


radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They


would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling


with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the


Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a


government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons


and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again


now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the


consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you


opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in


their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many


people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been


drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is


interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and


this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up


a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy


funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,


assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side


squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say


about that, whatever the result This is very much a Scottish Labour


project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is


potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal


responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job


that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this


island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me


to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they


are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this


referendum is lost by your side it will be because traditional


working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of


Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?


Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes


is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European


Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be


voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy


of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as


unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland it


will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to


help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if


it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain


are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only


the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why


shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of


expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,


carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are


repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it


change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of


Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to


put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife


would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential


consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that


is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would


change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of


view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are


being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are


already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could


not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers


for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British


state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond


idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again


because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be


narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of


unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're


still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let


Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly


win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking


about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably


not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what


about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are


right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish


Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I


told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime


against young people in England It was risking everything. We are led


by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We


need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.


Thank you. It's been one of the longest and


hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing


the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together


the key moments of the campaign It is the other thing drawing people


to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is


the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,


famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel


dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the


elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became


reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year


later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in


this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White


Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have


ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent


country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,


Labour and the Lib Dems under the leadership of Alistair Darling. Then


the Scottish people were bombarded with two years of photo


opportunities and a lot of campaigning. For the no campaign,


Jim Murphy went on tour but took a break when he was egged and his


events were often hijacked by yes campaigners who were accused of


being intimidating. In turn, they accused the no campaign of using


scare tactics. Things heated up when the TV dinner -- during the TV


debate. Fever pitch was reached one week ago when one poll suggested the


yes campaign was in the lead for the first time. The three main


Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to head north. I think people can feel


it is like a general election, that you make a decision and five years


later you can make another decision if you are fed up with the Tories,


give them a kick... This is totally different. And Labour shelved not


quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex Salmond took a helicopter instead.


This is about the formation of the NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign


is that changes to the NHS in Linden -- in England would lead to


privatisation in Scotland. Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound


was trashed by big names. There were other big question is, what would


happen to military hardware like Trident based on the Clyde? Would an


independent Scotland be able to join the EU? And how much oil was left


underneath the North Sea? This panel is about famous Scots, we


have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry, Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon


Brown. These are big changes we are proposing to strengthen the Scottish


parliament, but at the same time to stay as part of the UK. A regular on


the campaign, he was front and centre when things got close,


unveiling a timetable for more devolution. People wondered whether


Ed Miliband was able to reach the parts of Scotland Labour leader


should reach, and at Westminster some Tories pondered whether David


Cameron could stay as prime minister if there was a yes vote. This


tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a good place to get away from it all


but it is crystallising voters' views. Look at what we have


contributed to Great Britain, and I am British and I hope to be staying


British. This is what people from Scotland have done, taken to the


rest of the world in many cases and I think I am going to vote yes. I am


so inspired by it. It has certainly inspired me to have a go at


stitching. How long do you think it would take to do the whole thing? I


would say to put aside maybe 30 hours of stitching. Maybe by the


time I am done, we will know more about how the fabric of the nation


might be changing. And I've been joined


by yes campaigner and convenor of Scotland's Solidarity socialist


party, Tommy Sheridan. An economy dependent on oil, the


Queen as head of state, membership of the world 's premier nuclear


alliance of capitalist nations is that the socialist Scotland you are


fighting for? No, that is the SNP's prospectus and they are entitled to


put forward their vision, but it is not mine or that of the majority of


Scotland. We will find out in two years. On Thursday we are not voting


for a political party, we are voting for our freedom as a country. That


is why people are going to vote yes on Thursday. A lot of people are


voting for what you call freedom because they think it will be more


Scotland. You have already got free prescriptions, no tuition fees, free


care for the elderly. You might not in future have that if public


spending is overdependent on the price of oil, over which you have no


control. We don't have to worry about one single resource, we


already have 20% of the fishing stock in Europe. We already have 25%


of the wind, wave and solar power generation. We, as an independent


country, have huge resources, natural resources but also people


resources. We have five first-class universities, food and beverages


industry which is the envy of the world. We have the ability to


produce the resources on the revenues that won't just maintain


the health service and education but it will develop health and


education. I don't want to stand still, I want to redistribute


wealth. But all of the projections of public spending for an


independent Scotland show that to keep spending at the current level


you need a strong price of oil and you are dependent on this commodity


which goes up and down and sideways. That is a gamble. I have got to


laugh because I have been told the most pessimistic is that in 40 years


the oil is running out, panic stations! If you were told by the


BBC you could only guarantee employment for the next 40 years you


would be over the moon. I am talking about in the next five. You need 50%


of your revenues to come from oil to continue spending and that is not a


guarantee. Of course it is, the minimum survival of the oil is 0


years. Please get your viewers to go onto the Internet and look at the


website called oilandgas.com. The West Coast has 100 years of oil to


be extracted. It hasn't been done because in 1981 Michael Heseltine


said we cannot extract the oil because we have Trident going up and


down there. Let's get rid of Trident and extract the oil. You are a trot


right, why have you failed to learn his famous dictum, socialism in one


country is impossible. Revolutions and change are not just single


event. What will happen here on Thursday is a democratic revolution.


The people are fed up of being patronised and lied to by this mob


in Westminster who have used and abused us for far too long. The


smaller people now have a voice What about socialism in one


country? Mr Trotsky warned you against that. The no campaign


represents the past. The yes campaign represents the future. That


is the truth of the matter. What we are going to do in an independent


Scotland is tackle inequality and a scourge of low pay. If we vote no on


Thursday, there will be more low pay on Friday, more poverty and food


banks on Friday. I'm not going to be lectured by these big banks, you


vote less -- yes and we will leave the country! The food banks will be


the ones closing. If you got your way, for the type of Scotland you


would like to see, state control of business, nationalisation of the


Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be clogged with people


Yes, hoping to come into Scotland, because in their hearts, the


Scottish people know that England want to see the people having the


bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of


London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big


business. When we are independent and investing in social housing the


people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will


rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one


country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than


the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You


think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally


and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the


world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be


encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as


well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three


millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed


Miliband wins the next election he said he would stick to the story


spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to


run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great


socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist


party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more


votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology


question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years


time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you


are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and


got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won


the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the


clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the


close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --


service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and


people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a


constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the


Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black


and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a


crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are


absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is


finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance


of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no


vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to


rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,


because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political


party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite


is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your


colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal


of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to


be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he


engineered your downfall, but I m still here and his newspaper has


closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other


millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on


Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this


vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather


not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who


is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the


BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a


stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going


to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try


and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you


have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you


personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,


generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look


at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil


not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see


it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.


Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 6 /40.


Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the


working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up


being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into


tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,


and they will use it and vote for freedom. Are you happy with the way


the BBC has treated you today? So far, yes. I have still not been


offered a Coffey, but that might happen. That is an obvious example


In the East Midlands, our economy you later with George Galloway.


In the East Midlands, our economy leads the UK economy but who is


feeling the benefit? There are a number of reasons, a


recovering economy, governmdnt investment as well as our own, they


have all played their part hn solidifying the economic recovery. I


am hearing not, I am feeling better off, people are actually fedling


sort of desperate as well. Forget the Scottish vote, is it time


for the East Midlands to go it alone?


Might it be worth the East Lidlands going for independent? Independent


Care Group `` kingdom of thd East Midlands, sounds good, doesn't it?


Let's take a look at the news that the East Midlands has some of the


worst care homes in the country according to a new report.


Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire came in the bottom


ten when it came to failing care home inspections. In Nottinghamshire


36% have failed tests, in Ddrbyshire one third failed and in


Leicestershire it was 20%. Nottinghamshire county council say


the figures are not a fair reflection because they havd a


robust reporting system so problems are more likely to be reported. Liz,


you Labour's Care Minister, on the face of it these figures ard


worrying. `` you are. Anybody with an elderly relative at home will be


worried. We need to look at improving the training of the care


workforce, have robust systdms to make sure that problems are rooted


out, and make sure that people who run failing care homes can't set


them up somewhere else. I would like to see a stronger role for local


councils, who are often closer to the care homes. Notts Countx council


said it was misleading to s`y that the homes failed inspections because


the tests look at a wide range of issues. Have I got a point? I am


always in favour of openness and transparency because I think you can


flush out problems and deal with them but we need to have proper care


standards, proper qualifications and skills and real mechanisms to hold


care providers to account. Ht sounds like it is bad news for people


involved in care in the East Midlands. It should be of concern to


all of us. We are all getting older. Shouldn't the government be doing


more to help people? The minister in charge is going to set up a new


inspection regime starting next year. That is going to be f`r more


rigorous and I think it will give people confidence. I have vhsited


care homes in my constituency, they are generally well`run, thex have


caring staff, but if they are not they need to be scrutinised. In a


lot of cases these are Labotr authorities. I want to come back to


this point that Andrew said, yes, we need a tough and effective


regulation system but regul`tion happens after the event, yot want to


prevent the problem is happdning. I think we should see a proper system


to make sure that the managdrs have the skills and qualifications they


need, we need to look at tr`ining of the care workforce am and I think


all councils can look at having a real care standards. Our region has


the fastest jobs growth and fastest`growing GDP but doubts


remain about whether people are feeling the benefits in wagd packets


and job security, because wd have had the biggest fall in wagds in the


country. It is go, go, go for the East


Midlands economy. Anna Lo powered series starting this weekend is


based at Donington Park. More than 150 high`tech jobs, the latdst boost


for the area. We have government support through the loan scheme that


helped will these schemes, `nd major commitment from the company have


played their part in solidifying economic recovery. Donington Park is


not the only winner in the dconomy because the East Midlands is


expected to be the fastest region when it comes to job growth in the


coming year. Figures out thhs week show that in the first thred months


of the year the region was hn top gear. While Leicestershire was in


pole position, the city of Leicester was in danger of being lappdd. The


number of people claiming ott of work benefits has fallen


dramatically but the number of people actually in work has also


fallen. Gemma, `` Gemma has felt little economic improvement in her


household. My husband wants to work but it is not realistic. Evdn


clothing my children is mord expensive. Across`the`board,


economic indicators in Leicdster West are worse for women th`n men


when compared to the British average. The jobs many women want


are in short supply and, whhle nationally only 6% of women are


self`employed, here the figtre is so low it doesn't register in the


government figures. I have been looking for work for four ydars and


it is really difficult, I think more difficult for women because you have


to juggle the children and work Are lots of people finding it dhfficult


to find work? I work with a lot of people in the community and I am


hearing not, I feel better off, some people are actually feeling sort of


desperate as well. Business confidence is high but the wheels


will need to spin a bit faster before everybody else feels


confident about the economy. There is no doubt the econoly is


growing and the East Midlands is doing far better than most. I am


really pleased we are finally seeing growth coming back, I would have


liked to have seen it earlidr but it is good news. As I think yot saw,


the question is whether people are really feeling the benefit. The


difficulty is that, with prhces rising much faster than wagds, and


that having happened for fotr years, ordinary people are not seehng the


benefit. In north`west Leicestershire we got hit in


Labour's great recession, a 10% reduction... Caused by the banking


crisis that happened across the world. Wages took three years to


recover from their 2008 levdls. They dropped by 6.7%, the biggest in the


country. It recovered three years later and it is growing,


unemployment is down at 2%, we have seen a 14% reduction in my


constituency, and youth unelployment is down 50%. Do you deny we have the


worst figures for wages? Wage growth with an unemployment rate of 2%


would be quite good. It was 3.6 against 3.2% across the UK. The big


question for the future is, are we going to have an economy whdre


everybody shares in the bendfits of more jobs and growth and businesses


being more successful, or are we going to end up competing in a low


skill, low wage economy? Much of the growth is coming from retail and


distribution. Yes, about a third of the jobs in my constituency are


related to distribution bec`use we have very good communications and an


airport... We really do need good, decent jobs, high skill, high wage.


There is so much more we cotld do. Those jobs do exist, we saw in the


report the manufacturing sector We are doing that by reforming the


schools, when I came into office in 2010, over 15% of my workforce had


no formal qualifications. That is down to just over 8%. I think we


need something far bigger and bolder if we are really going to stcceed in


the East Midlands and as a country. As we have proposed, we need to see


much more power down to the regions and the cities, to link togdther the


universities and get the right infrastructure in place, tr`nsform


skills. An undoubtedly therd is going to be pressure on wagds in


constituencies like mine. In Leicestershire there are far more


jobs available than people unemployed. We need better


communication links between city and county so that those people in the


city who do not have a job can take the jobs in the county. The only way


we are going to get the infrastructure, not just thd


transport but the skills, wd need much more power and control down to


the East Midlands. Also it hs the attitude of the local counchls.


North`west Leicestershire, the county council, they are


pro`business and it is a welcoming place for businesses. I am not sure


that attitude is being shown in the city. Absolute rubbish, we `re


passionate about supporting businesses, transforming skhlls


They obviously don't believd you. We are making phenomenal improvements


in our skills... Rather than descend into a party political row, there is


a big question, which is wh`t you are seeing in the East Midl`nds is


mirrored across the country, some places doing well, others not. We


will only succeed if we all do well together. End of the party political


broadcast. Never mind the Scottish refdrendum,


maybe it is time to think about an independent East Midlands. Robert


Shaw has written a book explaining how the East Midlands has ghven the


world gravity, the Industri`l Revolution and even sex, cotrtesy of


the H Lawrence. We asked hil how his vision would look. `` DH Lawrence.


This is the southernmost pohnt that a Scottish army has ever cole in


England. Legend has it that Bonnie Prince Charlie looked at thd East


Midlands people and knew thdre was no way he would get passed. Like


Scotland, the East Midlands does not always get the recognition ht


deserves, so might it be worth the East Midlands going for


independence? An independent kingdom of the East Midlands, sounds good,


doesn't it? But why would wd want to be independent and who are we


anyway? Most people here don't really know. This is from a tourist


board survey night by the E`st Midlands tourist board, which does


not exist any more. Correspondents summed it up as industrial, built


up, heavily propagated, busx, no countryside, not touristy, `n


romantic. `` not romantic. Ht is obviously not true but how do we


change these attitudes. The first thing we can do is take control of


the M1. Charge people to usd it at each end and bring the country to


its knees. Because we are the Midlands we need a coastlind so


let's make a grab for Skegndss. We would have an excellent source of


fish and also we would have somewhere to go on holiday. How


about jobs? We have everythhng an independent nation needs, v`st


mineral resources, we could reopen the pits. North Nottinghamshire is


rich in shale gas. How about reopening the knitwear factories?


There was a time that peopld in England had nothing else to wear.


From Derbyshire we could have Robert Lindsay as head of state from


Leicestershire, Gary Lineker, and from Nottinghamshire Rebecc`


Adlington. As for the issue of currency, we would not borrow with


the pound, we would use the medieval ducat. We would need a propdr


national flag. What is disthnct about the Midlands is that ht is in


the middle so we could have a design that was all middle and no ddge As


for national dress... That hs easy. So there you have it. Polithcally,


economically, culturally, the East Midlands has everything it needs to


be its own country. Next tile a Scottish army arrives at thhs bridge


it is going to show its passport if it wants to get into the independent


kingdom of the East Midlands. Robert Shaw, tongue firmly hn cheek.


But of course there is a serious side to the debate. We are joined by


Melanie Powell, and in? An dconomist from Derby University. If Scotland


was to become independent, would it make any difference to us hdre?


There are two macro elements, the short term and the uncertainty. ``


two elements. Companies that are trading with Scotland could see a


short`term problem there. There may be an effect on sterling and a


further depreciation, which, of course, can effect export companies


and benefit import companies. `` aspect. Even if there is a no vote


there is still uncertainty. With a yes vote there would be a htge


shift. Would things change hf there was a no vote? Yes, because even if


there is the debate is going to change about regional power and the


English Parliament that doesn't exist. As nurses have to de`l with


that and they have to deal with how that might effect growth in the


economy. I think a no vote will not be so damaging, with a yes vote


there will be severe uncert`inty. Our MPs have been up to Scotland,


how was it? It is a really tough campaign, people are really engaged,


everybody knows it is happening people are talking about thd


arguments. People feel passhonately on the doorstep, they want to


engage. I think politically that is a good thing that it is going to go


to the wire and I know that myself and my Labour colleagues will be


fighting every step to keep the union. I felt that it is polarising


and becoming slightly aggressive in parts between the yes and no


campaigners. It is a bit of a civil war and they can be quite bloody.


What does it mean for your constituents, do you think they are


in gauge to buy it? `` engaged by it. I think there will be a further


debate about devolution of controls throughout the rest of the TK and I


think that is right. People want to have more of a say and more control


over their lives. In the short term it will have an impact. It hs this


uncertainty you were saying. How will that be felt in your areas I


think there is a backlash on the government backbenches. We


understand that David Cameron wants to keep the union together but by


offering devolution max, it seems that Ed Miliband has had more to do


with this than the backbenches. If we are not careful we will love to a


situation where heads, Alex Salmond wins, tales, England loses. There is


not just this risk and uncertainty, there is the risk and uncertainty of


our membership of the Europdan Union, which companies and


businesses are very concerndd about. I understand that the conservatives


don't like the risk of uncertainty surrounding Scottish independence


but they don't care about this uncertainty. If it is a no vote but


only small one, I don't think that will get the question of thd table.


Melanie, are we being compl`cent about the prospect of a yes vote?


Should as Mrs have a plan rdady `` businesses have. Absolutely, if you


are trading internationally or in Scotland you have two considered the


risk. The cost of dealing whth the uncertainty will rise as thd


uncertainty rises. If you are buying strawberries from Scotland xou might


think, if there is a yes vote, will it be certain that Scotland will


stay in the Euro? If not, m`ybe we should be Retera off planning to buy


from Spain. `` be better off. Which way do you think it will go? That is


a tough question. We were t`lking earlier about this. There is the


psychology of decision making, most people are risk averse. Thex have


the choice between certaintx and the uncertainty of the future and I


think in the vote box a lot of people will shift towards the no.


Time for a round`up of some of the other political stories in the East


Midlands. We might not get independence but


could we see one leader for all of our police forces. The Chief


Constable of Nottinghamshird says the region should have thred forces.


Overall health levels in thd county are good but there are pockdts of


ill health. The Labour group ruling


Nottinghamshire county council says it is business as usual despite


losing its overall majority. One councillor resigned in protdst over


cuts and they only had a majority of one.


Two Nottinghamshire MPs say they will give away a pay rise to MPs'


salaries. They say they will give the money to good causes.


Have you spent your pay risd ready? Definitely not, don't think it


should be given, will continue to fight against it. I am sure my


ex`wife will find a use for it. The last time a sewer was built in


London was 150 years ago, otherwise we would have a dirty River Thames.


Andrew, back to you. Can


the No campaign still pull it off? And even if they do is the whole


of the UK now on the brink I'm joined now by John McTernan


former adviser to Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, Alex Bell,


former Head of Policy for the SNP and Lindsay McIntosh, the


Times Scottish Political Editor And I'm delighted that Tommy


and George have stayed too. No fighting has broken out either.


Where No fighting has broken out either.


have three full days to go No fighting has broken out either.


polling day. What is the state of play? I think the poll of polls is


accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital is to bring the undecided voters in,


and they properly have about 500,000. I think there are a lot of


undecided people. I think they know which way they are leaning, but they


haven't jumped. The hope of the no campaign is that they will go for


the status quo on Thursday. How do you assess the state of the campaign


now? The crucial thing is the big swing. The swing has come towards


yes, so will the momentum carry it over the line? I will think it does,


because it is an antiestablishment swell, and its people responding to


standard Western as the politicians and saying that they want a new way


-- Westminster politicians. I think that yes will sneak it. A referendum


can be more important than a general election, and the Yes campaign have


had the momentum. This was the week the momentum stopped. We started the


week looking as though yes were going into the lead and then it


stopped and most of the recent polls show a distinct lead for the no


campaign. A distinct lead? It is one or two points. It is six in one


poll, two in another, aiding another. The poll of polls is a good


way of measuring, and is it statistically Nick -- nip and tuck?


It is the week the momentum stopped. About a fifth of the electorate


That will be a quarter of the turnout have voted already, by


postal vote, and they are running very strongly towards no, so there


is a whole bank of votes there. The postal votes are skewed to the over


60s, and that is the demographic that the Yes campaign have had the


biggest trouble with. Absolutely, the Yes campaign faced a challenge


amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and always based challenge with the


older voters. Trust me, I was the decision the day the civil servants


made it possible for the 16 to 18-year-olds to vote, and we said


there was a victory for the no campaign in that alone. The young


tend to be conservative by nature. I think again that to say that the


momentum has stopped when you had a 20 point lead, this is a referendum


whether people will speak and they will be heard. Except for the one


poll which needs a huge health warning because of the size of the


sample, the momentum is unquestionably all the way through


August is going in the direction of yes. It hasn't quite continue to get


to the 55/45 four yes that Alex Salmond thinks will be the result. I


would agree with John. This was the momentum stalled. We saw the three


leaders coming up, and that kept Alex Salmond off the front pages on


the television and we had a raft of economic warnings which, although


they were dismissed as scaremongering, they will have had a


lot of traction with voters. What does the no campaign have to do in


the final three days? It has to focus on the undecided,


relentlessly. It has to do stick to the question of risk and keep


pushing back on Alex Salmond to say it doesn't matter if the banks


leave, it will all be all right on the night. The huge question amongst


the undecided voters is about the economy. It is about jobs and


currency, about business. That risk is what will crystallise in the


ballot box on Thursday and that has to be the focus. What does the Yes


campaign have to do? It has to drive home that the swing to the Yes


campaign is motivated by people who want a different politics. They have


decided amongst themselves that they want to change Scotland. The


unfortunate thing is, even though the no campaign has had the chance


to put up after proposals, they have failed. The Scottish people want


their powers were a purpose and they say that only the Yes campaign can


deliver that. There will be two days of relentless campaigning from


today, Monday and Tuesday, then the media, the newspapers, including


your own, will come out with the final poll, the ones that will be


the closest to the day that the Scots actually go and vote. I think


we will see more polling this week, but what is interesting is the


extent to which the pollsters are picking up what is going on in the


street. We know we have a huge number of voters who have never


voted before and are not engage with politics, so what will they do? The


third candidate in the election if I can would in this way, are the


polls. They might have a lot of questions to answer on Friday


morning. We were talking earlier with George and Tommy about the


Labour Party's consequences in all of this. Gordon Brown, of course,


has had a bit of a second coming as a result of this referendum. I just


want to play a clip of Gordon Brown during the campaign and get a


reaction. And I say this to Alex Salmond himself. Up until today I am


outside front line politics. If he continues to peddle this deception,


that the Scottish Parliament under his leadership, and he cannot do


anything to improve the health service until he has a separate


state, then I will want to join Joe Hanlon want in and securing the


return of a Labour government as quickly as possible -- Johann


Lamont. That was seen by some people as Gordon Brown implying he might


stand for the Scottish Parliament. Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon


Brown the saviour of Scottish Labour? I did a double black the


other night -- double act with him the other night, and I must say he


was a big beast all over again. He crossed the stage Meli dealt with


the audience brilliantly. He has a certain presence, Gordon Brown, but


he would really have to reinvent himself quite considerably. He is


capable of doing, but the man who was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton,


who pulled together the original red paper on Scotland, he would have to


be that Gordon Brown rather than the Gordon Brown of some more melancholy


events later. Tommy, you have both been critical of the state of the


Scottish Labour Party. Rather than looking to Gordon Brown, which might


be an interim solution, doesn't Scottish Labour have to find a new


generation of people to reignite it? What George and I are agreed on and


you have to remember this question of independence see us disagreeing


passionately, and in most other things we find ourselves in


agreement, one thing is clear, Scottish Labour is finished. They


have lost the heart and soul of Scotland. The fact that we are


discussing with four days to go an independence referendum that is neck


and neck, Labour have failed miserably, absolutely miserably


because they have given up everything they stood for. The SNP


has picked it up. They have just taken on the bank -- mantle of a


left of centre party and are picking up support. Gordon and the rest in


my opinion, they represent the past. The yes vote on the Yes campaign


represents the future. What do you say to that? There is nothing


socialist about an SNP that wants to cut business tax by 3% in the pan.


There is nothing socialist about an SNP destroying further education so


they can give middle-class people free education. The Labour Party is


alive and kicking. You can see if it is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with


the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to use this word, but they are kind of


privatised from the Scottish Labour Party. They have rode their own


fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump because official Scottish Labour did


not want him leading their campaign. Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off


the stage until it became so critical that he had to be brought


back. I agree with John, the SNP talks left but acts right. That is


before they get state powers. That is what is exciting about the


referendum, it's not about the SNP, it's about the people deciding. What


we have heard so far in the referendum campaign is that there is


a desperate yearning in the electorate for real politics,


purposeful politics and for the people to be represented. It is


probably to the eternal shame of labour that they gave up that role


and other people are now taking it upon themselves. How would you


assess the state of the Labour Party? The problem is that it was


demolished by the SNP in 2011 and what they should have done since


then and in other circumstances is take a real look within themselves


and brought forward new talent and policies and watch out what they


stood for. They've been unable to do that because they are locked in a


constitutional row. It is the plan of the Nationalists to fight the


first Scottish general election as an independent nation as a


nationalist party with its own programme. You don't all go your own


way. Why don't you do that? You have more on your main reason to be, so


why not go, left, right and centre question you are presuming you don't


go the one-way. I do not see the function of the SNP after the yes


vote. I think it is clear that there is an SNP under Nicola Sturgeon an


SNP which attracts votes from the left and that is the one for me


Whether that is called the SNP or something else, I don't know. I


think the assumption that we are going into a mirror of old politics


in a new world is just fundamentally flawed. That is interesting. Let's


just bring in the English dimensional. In many ways, England


has not spoken in this referendum campaign. Whether it is yes or no,


it will, and to give you a flavour of what some in England might be


thinking was saying, here is a clip from John Redwood. We are fed up


with this lopsided devolution, this unfair devolution. Scotland gets


first-class Devolution, Wales gets second-class devolution and England


gets nothing. If Wales wants the same as us, they should have it and


then there would be commonality so we could discuss and decide in our


own countries, in our own assemblies in Parliament, all those things that


are devolved. George, it was clear that if Scotland voted yes for


independence it has huge implications for England than the


UK, but it's also clear particularly after Gordon Brown's intervention,


even if it is no, it has huge applications. You are, I suggest,


agreeing with John Redwood that there should be an English boys It


would be a step too far for me to agree with him -- English voice I


appreciate I might have gone out on a limb. He is the voice of Mars the


Balkan from Mars. My own constituents in Bradford are asking,


what about us? All these things being done, all the extra mile is


being travel to Scotland, what about us? Labour would be well advised to


adjust quickly on this so that the John Redwood types do not steal the


show. England has yes to use -- yet to speak. It's interesting when you


hear a Labour backbencher in Scotland talk about a command paper.


He is not in government. Gordon Brown is going round Scotland


promising things and he has absolutely no chance of delivering


them. The MPs in England will say, hey, what are you talking about We


have never been discussed with that? We have not agreed with that. The


only way people in Scotland will get the powers they deserve is by voting


yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you think it is 60/40. I will stick with


it, because we have an unprecedented election. 97% of Scotland is


registered to vote. The working class will vote in numbers never


voted before. George? 55/45 for our side. And if there is a rogue poll,


the tek Levesley polled -- technically flawed poll, which


should not be published because it is so flawed, then we would be


stretching towards what I am predicting already. I think in the


last few days we will reach that. Come on. If the no campaign can get


the silent majority out, they will edge it. You think they will win,


but how much? They cannot give up in a second, a moment or a mile. It is


that close. It will be won by the passionate view. I will go for a


narrow yes victory. I'm the George, 53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. --


I am with George. I will leave you to argue about that later. Thank you


for being with us on the special Sunday politics from Edinburgh.


That's all from us today in Scotland.


Don't forget the Daily Politics will have continuing coverage


of the referendum campaign all this week on BBC2 at midday.


On Thursday night Huw Edwards will be in Glasgow and I will be


in London to bring you live coverage of the results on BBC1 from 10. 0 pm


on a historic night for Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.


And I'll be back next Sunday when we're live from the Labour


Unless, of course, the referendum result is so tumultuous even the


Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.


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