14/09/2014 Sunday Politics East Midlands


14/09/2014

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Welcome to the Sunday Politics, coming to you live from Edinburgh.

:00:37.:00:43.

Terrorists who use the name Islamic State have carried out

:00:44.:00:45.

their threat to murder the British aid worker, David Haines.

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They released a video late last night, showing a masked man

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beheading Mr Haines, who was taken captive in Syria 18 months ago.

:00:57.:01:02.

The jihadist group have already beheaded two American journalists.

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Now it's threatening the life of a second British hostage.

:01:05.:01:07.

David Cameron described the murder as an act of pure evil.

:01:08.:01:12.

President Obama said the US stood shoulder to shoulder

:01:13.:01:16.

Alex Salmond says Scotland "stands on the cusp of history" as

:01:17.:01:23.

he predicts a historic and substantial victory in

:01:24.:01:25.

As the latest polls show the two sides neck and neck,

:01:26.:01:34.

I'll ask Yes campaigner and socialist Tommy Sheridan about his

:01:35.:01:36.

And after last week's last-minute interventions from Gordon Brown

:01:37.:01:44.

David Cameron, Ed Miliband and big business, I'll ask

:01:45.:01:46.

In the East Midlands, we have the it's enough to win over waverers.

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In the East Midlands, we have the fastest`growing economy in the

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country but step closer back to Parliament. Is

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it a lame-duck administration? Late last night, as most folk were

:02:00.:02:13.

preparing for bed, news broke that Islamic State extremists had carried

:02:14.:02:16.

out their threat to murder the The group released a video, similar

:02:17.:02:18.

to the ones in which two American journalists were decapitated,

:02:19.:02:23.

showing a masked man apparently beheading Mr Haines who was taken

:02:24.:02:25.

captive in Syria last year. The terrorist,

:02:26.:02:29.

who has a southern British accent, also threatened the life

:02:30.:02:31.

of a second hostage from the UK Mr Haines is

:02:32.:02:35.

the third Westerner to be killed His family have paid tribute to

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his humanitarian work; they say he David Cameron described the murder

:02:38.:02:42.

as an act of pure evil, and said his heart went out to Mr Haines

:02:43.:02:49.

family, who had shown extraordinary Mr Cameron went on to say,

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"We will do everything in our power to hunt down these murderers

:02:53.:03:02.

and ensure they face justice, Mr Haines was born in England

:03:03.:03:04.

and brought up in Scotland. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond

:03:05.:03:09.

condemned the killing on the Marr Well, it's an act of unspeakable

:03:10.:03:26.

barbarism that we have seen. Obviously our condolences go to the

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family members of David Haynes who have borne this with such fortitude

:03:32.:03:33.

in recent months -- David Alex Salmond was also asked

:03:34.:03:39.

whether he supported military action Haines there is no reason to believe

:03:40.:03:48.

whatsoever that China or Russia or any country will see their will to

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deal with this barbarism. There is a will for effective, international,

:03:59.:04:00.

legal action but it must come in that fashion, and I would urge that

:04:01.:04:07.

to be a consideration to develop a collective response to what is a

:04:08.:04:09.

threat to humanity. Our security correspondent

:04:10.:04:10.

Gordon Corera joins me now Gordon, as we speak, the Cobra

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emergency meeting is meeting yet again. It meets a lot these days. I

:04:24.:04:28.

would suggest that the options facing this committee and Mr Cameron

:04:29.:04:32.

are pretty limited. That's right. I think they are extremely limited.

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They have been all along in these hostage situations. We know, for

:04:36.:04:41.

instance, that British government policy is not to pay ransom is to

:04:42.:04:45.

kidnappers. Other Europeans states are thought to have done so to get

:04:46.:04:49.

hostages released, and also not to make substantive policy concessions

:04:50.:04:54.

to the groups, so while there might be contact, there won't be a lot of

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options left. We know the US in the past has looked at rescue missions

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and in July on operation to free the hostages, landing at the oil

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facility in Syria but finding no one there. If you look at the options,

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they are not great. That is the difficult situation which Cobra will

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have been discussing the last hour. Does this make it more likely,

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because it might have the direction the government was going in any way,

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that we join with the Americans in perhaps the regional allies in air

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strikes against Islamic State, not just in Iraq, but also in Syria We

:05:38.:05:43.

heard from President Obama outlining his strategy against Islamic State

:05:44.:05:46.

last week when he talked about building a coalition, about

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authorising air strikes. And training troops. We are still

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waiting to hear what exact role the UK will play in that. We know it

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will play a role because it has been arming the fishmonger forces but the

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question is, will it actually conduct military strikes in Iraq --

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arming the passion are there. We have not got a clear answer from

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government and that is something where they are ours to discuss what

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was around the table. It's possible we might learn some more today as a

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result of the Cobra meeting, but I think the government will be wanting

:06:36.:06:39.

to not be seen to suddenly rushed to a completely different policy as a

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result of one incident, however terrible it is. Whether it hardens

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their reserve -- resolved to play more active role in the coalition,

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that's possible, but we have to wait see to get the detail. -- wait and

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see. What the whole country would like to see would be British and

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American special forces going in and getting these guys. I think that

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would unite the nation. But that is very difficult, isn't it? It is As

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you saw with a rescue mission a few months ago, the problem is getting

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actionable intelligence on the ground at a particular moment. The

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theory is that the group of kidnappers are moving the hostages

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may be even every or few days, so you need intelligence and quickly

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and then you need to be able to get the team onto the ground into that

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time frame. That is clearly a possibility and something they will

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be looking at, but it certainly challenging, particularly when you

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have a group like this operating within its own state, effectively,

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and knowing that other people are looking very hard for it and doing

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everything they can to hide. Gordon, thank you very much.

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Clegg dropped everything and headed to Scotland when a poll last Sunday

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gave the YES vote its first ever lead in this prolonged referendum

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If their reaction looked like panic, that's because it was.

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Until last weekend, though the polls had been narrowing,

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the consensus was still that NO would carry the day.

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The new consensus is that it's too close to call.

:08:10.:08:18.

If we look back at the beginning of the year, public opinion in Scotland

:08:19.:08:25.

was fairly settled. The no campaign had a commanding lead across the

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opinion polls, excluding the undecided voters. At one point, at

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the end of last year, an average of 63% backed the no campaign and only

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37% supported a yes vote. As we move into 2014 and up to this week, you

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can see a clear trend emerging as the lead for the no campaign gets

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narrower and narrower and the average of the most recent polls has

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the contest hanging in the balance. There was a poll a week ago that put

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the Yes campaign in the lead for the first time, 51% against 49%, but

:08:56.:09:01.

that lead was not reflected in the other polls last week. For polls

:09:02.:09:06.

were published last night, one by Salvation, for the macro-2 campaign

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-- Better Together campaign, and there was another that gave a one

:09:18.:09:21.

percentage point different. ICM have the yes campaign back in the lead at

:09:22.:09:27.

54% and the no campaign at 46%, but their sample size was 705 Scottish

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adults, smaller than usual. Another suggests that the contest remains on

:09:34.:09:41.

a knife edge with 49.4% against 50.6%. When fed into the poll of

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polls the figures average out with yes at 49% and polls -- no at 5 %.

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But some people think 18% are undecided, and it is how they vote

:09:55.:09:58.

gets -- when they get to the polling booths that could make all the

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difference. campaigner and Respect Party MP

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George Galloway. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Big

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business, big oil, big banks, the Tories, the Orange order, all

:10:11.:10:13.

against Scottish independence. You sure you are on right side? Yes

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because the interests of working people are in staying together. This

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is a troubled moment in a marriage, a very long marriage, in which some

:10:23.:10:26.

good things and bad things have been achieved together. And there is no

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doubt that the crockery is being thrown around the house of the

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minute. But I believe that the underlying interests of working

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people are on working on the relationship rather than divorce. I

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have been divorced. It's a very messy, acrimonious, bitter affair

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and it's particularly bad for the children will stop that's why I am

:10:47.:10:49.

here. You talk about working people, and particularly Scottish working

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people, they seem to have concluded that the social democracy they want

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to create cannot now be done in a UK context. Why should they not have a

:10:59.:11:05.

shot of going it alone? Because the opposite will happen. Separation

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will cause a race to the bottom in taxation. Alex Salmond has already

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announced he will cut the taxes on companies, corporation tax, down to

:11:14.:11:17.

3% hello whatever it is in the rest of these islands. And business will

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only be attracted to come here, country of 5 million people on if

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there is low regulation, low public expenditure, low levels of taxation

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for them will stop you cannot have Scandinavian social democracy on

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Texan levels of taxation. The British government, as will be, the

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rest of the UK, they will race Alex Salmond to the bottom. If he cuts it

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by three, they will cut it by four. And so on. So whether some people

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cannot see it clearly yet or not, the interests of the working people

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on both sides of the border would be gravely damaged by separation. Let's

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take the interest of the working people. As you know, as well as

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anyone, the coalition is in fermenting both a series of cuts and

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reforms in welfare, and labour, Westminster Labour, has only limited

:12:10.:12:13.

plans to reverse any of that. Surely if you want to preserve the welfare

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state as it is, independence is the way to do it. For the reasons I just

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explain, I don't believe that. But Ed Miliband will be along in a

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minute. He will be along in May The polls indicate... They say he is

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only four or 5%, that is the average. Like the referendum, the

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next general election could be nip and tuck. I don't, myself, think

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that the time of David Cameron as Prime Minister is for much longer. I

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think there will be a Labour government in the spring and the

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Labour government in London and a stronger Scottish Parliament, super

:12:52.:12:57.

Devo Max, that is now on the table. That is the best arrangement of

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people in the country. But the people of Scotland surely cannot

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base a decision on independence on your feeling that Labour might win

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the next general election. It is my feeling. When the Tories were beaten

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on the bedroom tax last week in the house, it was written all over the

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faces of the government side not only that they were headed for

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defeat, but probably a massive fishy -- Fisher. I think the race to the

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bottom that I have proper size will mean that the welfare state will be

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a distant memory quite soon. The cuts and the run on the Scottish

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economy here in Edinburgh, the financial services industry, that

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will be gravely damage. The Ministry of Defence jobs in Scotland

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decimated, probably ended, more or less. It will be a time of cuts and

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austerity, maybe super austerity in an independent Scotland. You

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mentioned defence. What about nuclear weapons? The Tories and

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Labour will keep them. You are against them. Surely the only way to

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be rid of them in Scotland is by independence. But you are not rid of

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them by telling them down the river. The danger would be the same --

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telling them down the river. The danger would be the same. Nuclear

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radiation does not respect Alex Salmond's national boundaries. They

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would be committed to immediately joining NATO, which is bristling

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with nuclear weapons and is what -- involved in wars across the

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Atlantic. So anyone looking for a peace option will have to elect a

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government in Britain as a whole that will get rid of nuclear weapons

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and get out of military entanglements. We are in one again

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now. I have been up the whole night, till 5am, dealing with some of the

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consequences and implications of the grave international matter that you

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opened the show with. David Haines and the fate of the hostage still in

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their hands. There are many other hostages as well. And there are many

:15:13.:15:15.

people dying who are neither British nor American. I have, somehow, been

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drawn into this matter. And it showed me, again, that the world is

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interdependent. It is absolutely riven with division and hatred, and

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this is the worst possible time to be opting out of the world to set up

:15:36.:15:40.

a small mini-state on the promises of Alex Salmond of social democracy

:15:41.:15:47.

funded by Texan taxes. Let's, for the sake of the next question,

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assume that everything you have told us is true. Why is your side

:15:50.:15:53.

squandering a 20 point lead? I will have a great deal to say

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about that, whatever the result This is very much a Scottish Labour

:16:11.:16:18.

project, is that not a condemnation of Scottish Labour? It is

:16:19.:16:23.

potentially on its deathbed. The country breaking up, the principal

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responsibility will be on them. And the pitiful, absolutely pitiful job

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that has been made of defending a 300-year-old relationship in this

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island by the Scottish Labour leadership is really terrible for me

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to behold, even though I'm no longer one of them. I don't know how they

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are going to get out of this deathbed. Do you agree that if this

:17:03.:17:07.

referendum is lost by your side it will be because traditional

:17:08.:17:10.

working-class Labour voters, particularly in the west of

:17:11.:17:15.

Scotland, have abundant Labour and decided to vote for independence?

:17:16.:17:20.

Without a doubt, the number of Labour voters intending to vote yes

:17:21.:17:26.

is disturbingly high. Even just months ago during the European

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Parliament elections, swathes of people who didn't vote SNP will be

:17:32.:17:36.

voting yes on Thursday. That is a grave squandering of a great legacy

:17:37.:17:42.

of Scottish Labour history, which history will decree as

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unforgivable. If Labour is to get out of its deathbed in Scotland it

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will have to become Labour again. Real Labour again. I am ready to

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help them with that. My goodness, they need help with it. I wonder if

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it isn't just a failure of Labour in Scotland. People all over Britain

:18:09.:18:12.

are increasingly fed up with the Westminster system, but it is only

:18:13.:18:16.

the Scots who currently have the chance to break free from it, so why

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shouldn't they? That is exactly right. They see a parliament of

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expenses cheats led by Lord snooty and the Bullingdon club elite,

:18:28.:18:34.

carrying through austerity for many but not for themselves and they are

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repulsed by it. They need change, but you can go backwards and call it

:18:40.:18:44.

change but it will be worse than the situation you have now. A lot of

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Scottish people don't buy that. It is a big gamble. If I were poised to

:18:51.:18:57.

put my family's life savings on the roulette table in Las Vegas, my wife

:18:58.:19:02.

would not be scaremongering if she pointed out the potential

:19:03.:19:06.

consequences if I'd lost. She would not be negative by telling me that

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is my children's money I am risking. If I jumped off this roof it would

:19:12.:19:14.

change my point of view, but it would be worse than the point of

:19:15.:19:19.

view I have now. There is another issue here because the Scots are

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being asked to gamble on the Westminster parties, which they are

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already suspicious of, of delivering home rule. Alistair Darling could

:19:32.:19:35.

not even tell me if Ed Balls had signed off on more income tax powers

:19:36.:19:40.

for Scotland, so that is a gamble for the Scots. I feel the British

:19:41.:19:44.

state has had such a shake out of all this that they would be beyond

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idiots, they would be insane now to risk all of this flaring up again

:19:51.:19:57.

because whatever happens, if we win on Thursday, it is going to be

:19:58.:20:02.

narrowly. It will be a severe fissure in Scotland. A great deal of

:20:03.:20:08.

unpleasantness that we are already aware of. That could turn but we're

:20:09.:20:14.

still. It would be dicing with death, playing with fire, to let

:20:15.:20:20.

Scottish people down after Thursday if we narrowly win. If you narrowly

:20:21.:20:25.

win, and if there are moves to this home rule Mr Brown has been talking

:20:26.:20:30.

about, England hasn't spoken yet on this. Whilst England would probably

:20:31.:20:38.

not want to stop -- stop Scotland getting this, they would say, what

:20:39.:20:44.

about us? It could delay the whole procedure. It is necessary, you are

:20:45.:20:52.

right. England should have home rule, and I screamed at Scottish

:20:53.:20:57.

Labour MPs going into the vote to introduce tuition fees in England. I

:20:58.:21:03.

told them this was a constitutional monstrosity, as well as a crime

:21:04.:21:08.

against young people in England It was risking everything. We are led

:21:09.:21:15.

by idiots. Our leaders are not James Bonds, they are Austin powers. We

:21:16.:21:22.

need to change the leadership, not rip up a 300-year-old marriage.

:21:23.:21:23.

Thank you. It's been one of the longest and

:21:24.:21:29.

hardest fought political campaigns in history, with Alex Salmond firing

:21:30.:21:31.

the starting gun on the referendum Adam's been stitching together

:21:32.:21:35.

the key moments of the campaign It is the other thing drawing people

:21:36.:21:50.

to the Scottish parliament, the new great tapestry of Scotland. It is

:21:51.:21:56.

the story of battles won and lost, Scottish moments, British moments,

:21:57.:22:01.

famous Scots, and not so famous Scots. There is even a panel

:22:02.:22:07.

dedicated to the rise of the SNP. Alex Salmond's majority in the

:22:08.:22:11.

elections in 2011 made the referendum inevitable. It became

:22:12.:22:16.

reality when he and David Cameron did a deal in Edinburgh one year

:22:17.:22:21.

later. The Scottish Government set out its plans for independence in

:22:22.:22:26.

this book, just a wish list to some, a sacred text to others. This White

:22:27.:22:35.

Paper is the most detailed improvements that any people have

:22:36.:22:39.

ever been offered in the world as a basis for becoming an independent

:22:40.:22:44.

country. The no campaign, called Better Together, united the Tories,

:22:45.:22:50.

Labour and the Lib Dems under the leadership of Alistair Darling. Then

:22:51.:22:55.

the Scottish people were bombarded with two years of photo

:22:56.:22:58.

opportunities and a lot of campaigning. For the no campaign,

:22:59.:23:03.

Jim Murphy went on tour but took a break when he was egged and his

:23:04.:23:08.

events were often hijacked by yes campaigners who were accused of

:23:09.:23:14.

being intimidating. In turn, they accused the no campaign of using

:23:15.:23:18.

scare tactics. Things heated up when the TV dinner -- during the TV

:23:19.:23:26.

debate. Fever pitch was reached one week ago when one poll suggested the

:23:27.:23:32.

yes campaign was in the lead for the first time. The three main

:23:33.:23:36.

Westminster leaders ditched PMQs to head north. I think people can feel

:23:37.:23:40.

it is like a general election, that you make a decision and five years

:23:41.:23:45.

later you can make another decision if you are fed up with the Tories,

:23:46.:23:49.

give them a kick... This is totally different. And Labour shelved not

:23:50.:23:58.

quite 100 MPs onto the train, Alex Salmond took a helicopter instead.

:23:59.:24:03.

This is about the formation of the NHS. A big theme of the yes campaign

:24:04.:24:09.

is that changes to the NHS in Linden -- in England would lead to

:24:10.:24:20.

privatisation in Scotland. Alex Salmond's plan to share the pound

:24:21.:24:26.

was trashed by big names. There were other big question is, what would

:24:27.:24:29.

happen to military hardware like Trident based on the Clyde? Would an

:24:30.:24:34.

independent Scotland be able to join the EU? And how much oil was left

:24:35.:24:40.

underneath the North Sea? This panel is about famous Scots, we

:24:41.:24:45.

have Annie Lennox, Stephen Hendry, Sean Connery. I cannot see Gordon

:24:46.:24:52.

Brown. These are big changes we are proposing to strengthen the Scottish

:24:53.:24:57.

parliament, but at the same time to stay as part of the UK. A regular on

:24:58.:25:01.

the campaign, he was front and centre when things got close,

:25:02.:25:06.

unveiling a timetable for more devolution. People wondered whether

:25:07.:25:11.

Ed Miliband was able to reach the parts of Scotland Labour leader

:25:12.:25:15.

should reach, and at Westminster some Tories pondered whether David

:25:16.:25:18.

Cameron could stay as prime minister if there was a yes vote. This

:25:19.:25:22.

tapestry is nonpartisan so it is a good place to get away from it all

:25:23.:25:28.

but it is crystallising voters' views. Look at what we have

:25:29.:25:40.

contributed to Great Britain, and I am British and I hope to be staying

:25:41.:25:42.

British. This is what people from Scotland have done, taken to the

:25:43.:25:45.

rest of the world in many cases and I think I am going to vote yes. I am

:25:46.:25:50.

so inspired by it. It has certainly inspired me to have a go at

:25:51.:25:54.

stitching. How long do you think it would take to do the whole thing? I

:25:55.:26:00.

would say to put aside maybe 30 hours of stitching. Maybe by the

:26:01.:26:04.

time I am done, we will know more about how the fabric of the nation

:26:05.:26:06.

might be changing. And I've been joined

:26:07.:26:10.

by yes campaigner and convenor of Scotland's Solidarity socialist

:26:11.:26:13.

party, Tommy Sheridan. An economy dependent on oil, the

:26:14.:26:25.

Queen as head of state, membership of the world 's premier nuclear

:26:26.:26:30.

alliance of capitalist nations is that the socialist Scotland you are

:26:31.:26:41.

fighting for? No, that is the SNP's prospectus and they are entitled to

:26:42.:26:44.

put forward their vision, but it is not mine or that of the majority of

:26:45.:26:50.

Scotland. We will find out in two years. On Thursday we are not voting

:26:51.:26:56.

for a political party, we are voting for our freedom as a country. That

:26:57.:27:02.

is why people are going to vote yes on Thursday. A lot of people are

:27:03.:27:05.

voting for what you call freedom because they think it will be more

:27:06.:27:11.

Scotland. You have already got free prescriptions, no tuition fees, free

:27:12.:27:15.

care for the elderly. You might not in future have that if public

:27:16.:27:20.

spending is overdependent on the price of oil, over which you have no

:27:21.:27:25.

control. We don't have to worry about one single resource, we

:27:26.:27:29.

already have 20% of the fishing stock in Europe. We already have 25%

:27:30.:27:36.

of the wind, wave and solar power generation. We, as an independent

:27:37.:27:47.

country, have huge resources, natural resources but also people

:27:48.:27:52.

resources. We have five first-class universities, food and beverages

:27:53.:27:56.

industry which is the envy of the world. We have the ability to

:27:57.:28:00.

produce the resources on the revenues that won't just maintain

:28:01.:28:04.

the health service and education but it will develop health and

:28:05.:28:08.

education. I don't want to stand still, I want to redistribute

:28:09.:28:13.

wealth. But all of the projections of public spending for an

:28:14.:28:20.

independent Scotland show that to keep spending at the current level

:28:21.:28:25.

you need a strong price of oil and you are dependent on this commodity

:28:26.:28:30.

which goes up and down and sideways. That is a gamble. I have got to

:28:31.:28:35.

laugh because I have been told the most pessimistic is that in 40 years

:28:36.:28:39.

the oil is running out, panic stations! If you were told by the

:28:40.:28:46.

BBC you could only guarantee employment for the next 40 years you

:28:47.:28:51.

would be over the moon. I am talking about in the next five. You need 50%

:28:52.:28:57.

of your revenues to come from oil to continue spending and that is not a

:28:58.:29:02.

guarantee. Of course it is, the minimum survival of the oil is 0

:29:03.:29:09.

years. Please get your viewers to go onto the Internet and look at the

:29:10.:29:24.

website called oilandgas.com. The West Coast has 100 years of oil to

:29:25.:29:30.

be extracted. It hasn't been done because in 1981 Michael Heseltine

:29:31.:29:33.

said we cannot extract the oil because we have Trident going up and

:29:34.:29:41.

down there. Let's get rid of Trident and extract the oil. You are a trot

:29:42.:29:51.

right, why have you failed to learn his famous dictum, socialism in one

:29:52.:29:56.

country is impossible. Revolutions and change are not just single

:29:57.:30:01.

event. What will happen here on Thursday is a democratic revolution.

:30:02.:30:05.

The people are fed up of being patronised and lied to by this mob

:30:06.:30:10.

in Westminster who have used and abused us for far too long. The

:30:11.:30:16.

smaller people now have a voice What about socialism in one

:30:17.:30:20.

country? Mr Trotsky warned you against that. The no campaign

:30:21.:30:30.

represents the past. The yes campaign represents the future. That

:30:31.:30:34.

is the truth of the matter. What we are going to do in an independent

:30:35.:30:39.

Scotland is tackle inequality and a scourge of low pay. If we vote no on

:30:40.:30:46.

Thursday, there will be more low pay on Friday, more poverty and food

:30:47.:30:52.

banks on Friday. I'm not going to be lectured by these big banks, you

:30:53.:30:58.

vote less -- yes and we will leave the country! The food banks will be

:30:59.:31:06.

the ones closing. If you got your way, for the type of Scotland you

:31:07.:31:11.

would like to see, state control of business, nationalisation of the

:31:12.:31:17.

Manx, the roads to Carlisle will be clogged with people

:31:18.:31:24.

Yes, hoping to come into Scotland, because in their hearts, the

:31:25.:31:32.

Scottish people know that England want to see the people having the

:31:33.:31:37.

bottle. The working class people in Liverpool, Newcastle, outside of

:31:38.:31:40.

London, they are saying good on the jocks that are taking on big

:31:41.:31:44.

business. When we are independent and investing in social housing the

:31:45.:31:48.

people of England will say, we can do that as well, and they will

:31:49.:31:53.

rediscover the radical tradition. In wanting to build socialism in one

:31:54.:31:56.

country, it really means you are fighting for the few, rather than

:31:57.:32:00.

the many. You are bailing out of the socialist Battle for Britain. You

:32:01.:32:04.

think it will be easier to make it work. Think globally, act locally

:32:05.:32:12.

and we will build socialism in Scotland but I wanted across the

:32:13.:32:16.

world. I won my brothers and sisters in England and Wales to be

:32:17.:32:20.

encouraged by what we do so they can reject the Westminster consensus as

:32:21.:32:24.

well -- I want. We had the three Stooges coming up to London, three

:32:25.:32:28.

millionaires united on one thing, austerity. Doesn't matter whether Ed

:32:29.:32:32.

Miliband wins the next election he said he would stick to the story

:32:33.:32:36.

spending cuts. Why vote for Ed Miliband? You wouldn't trust him to

:32:37.:32:42.

run a bath, not a country. Let's see if this is realistic, this great

:32:43.:32:46.

socialist vision. At the last Scottish election, the Socialist

:32:47.:32:50.

party got 8000 votes. The Conservatives got 30 times more

:32:51.:32:56.

votes. Where is the appetite in Scotland for your Marxist ideology

:32:57.:33:00.

question we might not win it. But do you know what, see in two years

:33:01.:33:03.

time. See when we have the Scottish general election. You won't -- you

:33:04.:33:18.

are saying you might win and you went to the Holyrood election and

:33:19.:33:24.

got 8000 Pope -- votes. The SNP won a democratic election and then won

:33:25.:33:27.

the 2011 election and you know why they won? Because they picked up the

:33:28.:33:31.

clothes that the Labour Party has thrown away. They picked up the

:33:32.:33:35.

close of social democracy and protecting the health service was --

:33:36.:33:43.

service. There are people in the SNP who believe in public ownership and

:33:44.:33:47.

people in the SNP who believe in the NHS should be written into a

:33:48.:33:50.

constitution as never for sale people in the the SNP that think the

:33:51.:33:54.

Royal mail should return to public ownership. That is there in black

:33:55.:33:59.

and white. Do you agree with George Galloway that this is potentially a

:34:00.:34:02.

crisis for Scottish Labour? Scottish Labour is finished. They are

:34:03.:34:08.

absolutely finished. George is right in that. Scottish Labour is

:34:09.:34:12.

finished. The irony of ironies is, Labour in Scotland has more chance

:34:13.:34:15.

of recovery in an independent Scotland that they have in a no

:34:16.:34:21.

vote. Labour in Scotland in an independent country will have to

:34:22.:34:25.

rediscover the traditions of Keir Hardie, the ideas of Jimmy Maxon,

:34:26.:34:29.

because right now, they are to the right of the SNP as a political

:34:30.:34:36.

party. I understand the socialist vision, but it is where the appetite

:34:37.:34:40.

is. And you look at the independence people in Scotland. One of your

:34:41.:34:46.

colleagues, Brian Souter, a man who fought against the appeal -- repeal

:34:47.:34:52.

of homosexual rights in Scotland. Another of your allies would seem to

:34:53.:34:56.

be Rupert Murdoch, the man who engineered your downfall. You say he

:34:57.:35:03.

engineered your downfall, but I m still here and his newspaper has

:35:04.:35:08.

closed. Whether it Rupert Murdoch, Brian Souter, or any other

:35:09.:35:12.

millionaire supporting independence, I couldn't care less. This boat on

:35:13.:35:15.

Thursday is not about millionaires, it is about the millions. -- this

:35:16.:35:22.

vote. We will not be abused any young -- longer. Would you rather

:35:23.:35:27.

not have their support? I couldn't care about the support. You know who

:35:28.:35:32.

is supporting the union. It is the unions of the big businesses, the

:35:33.:35:35.

BNP, UKIP, they are the ones who support it. You are giving me a

:35:36.:35:43.

stray that has wandered into the campaign and are you seriously going

:35:44.:35:46.

to argue with me that the establishment isn't united to try

:35:47.:35:50.

and save the union? That is what they are trying to be. The BBC, you

:35:51.:35:55.

have been a disgrace in your coverage of the campaign. Not you

:35:56.:35:58.

personally. You don't have editorial control. The BBC coverage,

:35:59.:36:03.

generally, has been a disgrace and the people. Oil and gas, go and look

:36:04.:36:09.

at that, why is that not feature. Why is the idea of 100 years of oil

:36:10.:36:12.

not featured in the campaign. Because the BBC does not want to see

:36:13.:36:17.

it. Are you getting in your excuses if you lose? You better be kidding.

:36:18.:36:22.

Is this the face of somebody looking to lose. We are going to win, 6 /40.

:36:23.:36:28.

Absolutely. There is a momentum that you guys are not seeing on the

:36:29.:36:33.

working-class housing estates. Working class people are fed up

:36:34.:36:37.

being taken for granted fed up with the lives of people dragging us into

:36:38.:36:45.

tax cuts, bedroom tax for the poor. They will have power on Thursday,

:36:46.:36:49.

and they will use it and vote for freedom. Are you happy with the way

:36:50.:36:53.

the BBC has treated you today? So far, yes. I have still not been

:36:54.:36:58.

offered a Coffey, but that might happen. That is an obvious example

:36:59.:37:03.

In the East Midlands, our economy you later with George Galloway.

:37:04.:37:25.

In the East Midlands, our economy leads the UK economy but who is

:37:26.:37:30.

feeling the benefit? There are a number of reasons, a

:37:31.:37:36.

recovering economy, governmdnt investment as well as our own, they

:37:37.:37:40.

have all played their part hn solidifying the economic recovery. I

:37:41.:37:48.

am hearing not, I am feeling better off, people are actually fedling

:37:49.:37:52.

sort of desperate as well. Forget the Scottish vote, is it time

:37:53.:37:57.

for the East Midlands to go it alone?

:37:58.:38:02.

Might it be worth the East Lidlands going for independent? Independent

:38:03.:38:11.

Care Group `` kingdom of thd East Midlands, sounds good, doesn't it?

:38:12.:38:18.

Let's take a look at the news that the East Midlands has some of the

:38:19.:38:22.

worst care homes in the country according to a new report.

:38:23.:38:26.

Nottinghamshire, Derbyshire and Leicestershire came in the bottom

:38:27.:38:31.

ten when it came to failing care home inspections. In Nottinghamshire

:38:32.:38:37.

36% have failed tests, in Ddrbyshire one third failed and in

:38:38.:38:41.

Leicestershire it was 20%. Nottinghamshire county council say

:38:42.:38:45.

the figures are not a fair reflection because they havd a

:38:46.:38:48.

robust reporting system so problems are more likely to be reported. Liz,

:38:49.:38:55.

you Labour's Care Minister, on the face of it these figures ard

:38:56.:39:04.

worrying. `` you are. Anybody with an elderly relative at home will be

:39:05.:39:11.

worried. We need to look at improving the training of the care

:39:12.:39:19.

workforce, have robust systdms to make sure that problems are rooted

:39:20.:39:23.

out, and make sure that people who run failing care homes can't set

:39:24.:39:26.

them up somewhere else. I would like to see a stronger role for local

:39:27.:39:30.

councils, who are often closer to the care homes. Notts Countx council

:39:31.:39:39.

said it was misleading to s`y that the homes failed inspections because

:39:40.:39:47.

the tests look at a wide range of issues. Have I got a point? I am

:39:48.:39:55.

always in favour of openness and transparency because I think you can

:39:56.:39:58.

flush out problems and deal with them but we need to have proper care

:39:59.:40:04.

standards, proper qualifications and skills and real mechanisms to hold

:40:05.:40:09.

care providers to account. Ht sounds like it is bad news for people

:40:10.:40:12.

involved in care in the East Midlands. It should be of concern to

:40:13.:40:21.

all of us. We are all getting older. Shouldn't the government be doing

:40:22.:40:27.

more to help people? The minister in charge is going to set up a new

:40:28.:40:35.

inspection regime starting next year. That is going to be f`r more

:40:36.:40:40.

rigorous and I think it will give people confidence. I have vhsited

:40:41.:40:45.

care homes in my constituency, they are generally well`run, thex have

:40:46.:40:49.

caring staff, but if they are not they need to be scrutinised. In a

:40:50.:40:55.

lot of cases these are Labotr authorities. I want to come back to

:40:56.:41:01.

this point that Andrew said, yes, we need a tough and effective

:41:02.:41:04.

regulation system but regul`tion happens after the event, yot want to

:41:05.:41:09.

prevent the problem is happdning. I think we should see a proper system

:41:10.:41:14.

to make sure that the managdrs have the skills and qualifications they

:41:15.:41:17.

need, we need to look at tr`ining of the care workforce am and I think

:41:18.:41:24.

all councils can look at having a real care standards. Our region has

:41:25.:41:35.

the fastest jobs growth and fastest`growing GDP but doubts

:41:36.:41:38.

remain about whether people are feeling the benefits in wagd packets

:41:39.:41:42.

and job security, because wd have had the biggest fall in wagds in the

:41:43.:41:49.

country. It is go, go, go for the East

:41:50.:41:58.

Midlands economy. Anna Lo powered series starting this weekend is

:41:59.:42:03.

based at Donington Park. More than 150 high`tech jobs, the latdst boost

:42:04.:42:12.

for the area. We have government support through the loan scheme that

:42:13.:42:18.

helped will these schemes, `nd major commitment from the company have

:42:19.:42:25.

played their part in solidifying economic recovery. Donington Park is

:42:26.:42:30.

not the only winner in the dconomy because the East Midlands is

:42:31.:42:33.

expected to be the fastest region when it comes to job growth in the

:42:34.:42:37.

coming year. Figures out thhs week show that in the first thred months

:42:38.:42:42.

of the year the region was hn top gear. While Leicestershire was in

:42:43.:42:46.

pole position, the city of Leicester was in danger of being lappdd. The

:42:47.:42:52.

number of people claiming ott of work benefits has fallen

:42:53.:42:56.

dramatically but the number of people actually in work has also

:42:57.:43:05.

fallen. Gemma, `` Gemma has felt little economic improvement in her

:43:06.:43:11.

household. My husband wants to work but it is not realistic. Evdn

:43:12.:43:15.

clothing my children is mord expensive. Across`the`board,

:43:16.:43:23.

economic indicators in Leicdster West are worse for women th`n men

:43:24.:43:28.

when compared to the British average. The jobs many women want

:43:29.:43:36.

are in short supply and, whhle nationally only 6% of women are

:43:37.:43:42.

self`employed, here the figtre is so low it doesn't register in the

:43:43.:43:46.

government figures. I have been looking for work for four ydars and

:43:47.:43:50.

it is really difficult, I think more difficult for women because you have

:43:51.:43:56.

to juggle the children and work Are lots of people finding it dhfficult

:43:57.:44:01.

to find work? I work with a lot of people in the community and I am

:44:02.:44:06.

hearing not, I feel better off, some people are actually feeling sort of

:44:07.:44:09.

desperate as well. Business confidence is high but the wheels

:44:10.:44:15.

will need to spin a bit faster before everybody else feels

:44:16.:44:18.

confident about the economy. There is no doubt the econoly is

:44:19.:44:23.

growing and the East Midlands is doing far better than most. I am

:44:24.:44:28.

really pleased we are finally seeing growth coming back, I would have

:44:29.:44:31.

liked to have seen it earlidr but it is good news. As I think yot saw,

:44:32.:44:39.

the question is whether people are really feeling the benefit. The

:44:40.:44:42.

difficulty is that, with prhces rising much faster than wagds, and

:44:43.:44:53.

that having happened for fotr years, ordinary people are not seehng the

:44:54.:44:58.

benefit. In north`west Leicestershire we got hit in

:44:59.:45:02.

Labour's great recession, a 10% reduction... Caused by the banking

:45:03.:45:07.

crisis that happened across the world. Wages took three years to

:45:08.:45:22.

recover from their 2008 levdls. They dropped by 6.7%, the biggest in the

:45:23.:45:30.

country. It recovered three years later and it is growing,

:45:31.:45:35.

unemployment is down at 2%, we have seen a 14% reduction in my

:45:36.:45:40.

constituency, and youth unelployment is down 50%. Do you deny we have the

:45:41.:45:49.

worst figures for wages? Wage growth with an unemployment rate of 2%

:45:50.:45:57.

would be quite good. It was 3.6 against 3.2% across the UK. The big

:45:58.:46:05.

question for the future is, are we going to have an economy whdre

:46:06.:46:09.

everybody shares in the bendfits of more jobs and growth and businesses

:46:10.:46:14.

being more successful, or are we going to end up competing in a low

:46:15.:46:22.

skill, low wage economy? Much of the growth is coming from retail and

:46:23.:46:27.

distribution. Yes, about a third of the jobs in my constituency are

:46:28.:46:31.

related to distribution bec`use we have very good communications and an

:46:32.:46:38.

airport... We really do need good, decent jobs, high skill, high wage.

:46:39.:46:44.

There is so much more we cotld do. Those jobs do exist, we saw in the

:46:45.:46:50.

report the manufacturing sector We are doing that by reforming the

:46:51.:46:55.

schools, when I came into office in 2010, over 15% of my workforce had

:46:56.:47:00.

no formal qualifications. That is down to just over 8%. I think we

:47:01.:47:08.

need something far bigger and bolder if we are really going to stcceed in

:47:09.:47:12.

the East Midlands and as a country. As we have proposed, we need to see

:47:13.:47:18.

much more power down to the regions and the cities, to link togdther the

:47:19.:47:25.

universities and get the right infrastructure in place, tr`nsform

:47:26.:47:38.

skills. An undoubtedly therd is going to be pressure on wagds in

:47:39.:47:48.

constituencies like mine. In Leicestershire there are far more

:47:49.:47:49.

jobs available than people unemployed. We need better

:47:50.:47:53.

communication links between city and county so that those people in the

:47:54.:47:57.

city who do not have a job can take the jobs in the county. The only way

:47:58.:48:03.

we are going to get the infrastructure, not just thd

:48:04.:48:07.

transport but the skills, wd need much more power and control down to

:48:08.:48:14.

the East Midlands. Also it hs the attitude of the local counchls.

:48:15.:48:19.

North`west Leicestershire, the county council, they are

:48:20.:48:23.

pro`business and it is a welcoming place for businesses. I am not sure

:48:24.:48:27.

that attitude is being shown in the city. Absolute rubbish, we `re

:48:28.:48:34.

passionate about supporting businesses, transforming skhlls

:48:35.:48:40.

They obviously don't believd you. We are making phenomenal improvements

:48:41.:48:50.

in our skills... Rather than descend into a party political row, there is

:48:51.:48:55.

a big question, which is wh`t you are seeing in the East Midl`nds is

:48:56.:48:58.

mirrored across the country, some places doing well, others not. We

:48:59.:49:03.

will only succeed if we all do well together. End of the party political

:49:04.:49:11.

broadcast. Never mind the Scottish refdrendum,

:49:12.:49:15.

maybe it is time to think about an independent East Midlands. Robert

:49:16.:49:20.

Shaw has written a book explaining how the East Midlands has ghven the

:49:21.:49:25.

world gravity, the Industri`l Revolution and even sex, cotrtesy of

:49:26.:49:30.

the H Lawrence. We asked hil how his vision would look. `` DH Lawrence.

:49:31.:49:42.

This is the southernmost pohnt that a Scottish army has ever cole in

:49:43.:49:48.

England. Legend has it that Bonnie Prince Charlie looked at thd East

:49:49.:49:51.

Midlands people and knew thdre was no way he would get passed. Like

:49:52.:49:56.

Scotland, the East Midlands does not always get the recognition ht

:49:57.:50:02.

deserves, so might it be worth the East Midlands going for

:50:03.:50:06.

independence? An independent kingdom of the East Midlands, sounds good,

:50:07.:50:12.

doesn't it? But why would wd want to be independent and who are we

:50:13.:50:16.

anyway? Most people here don't really know. This is from a tourist

:50:17.:50:21.

board survey night by the E`st Midlands tourist board, which does

:50:22.:50:26.

not exist any more. Correspondents summed it up as industrial, built

:50:27.:50:32.

up, heavily propagated, busx, no countryside, not touristy, `n

:50:33.:50:41.

romantic. `` not romantic. Ht is obviously not true but how do we

:50:42.:50:46.

change these attitudes. The first thing we can do is take control of

:50:47.:50:54.

the M1. Charge people to usd it at each end and bring the country to

:50:55.:50:59.

its knees. Because we are the Midlands we need a coastlind so

:51:00.:51:03.

let's make a grab for Skegndss. We would have an excellent source of

:51:04.:51:08.

fish and also we would have somewhere to go on holiday. How

:51:09.:51:16.

about jobs? We have everythhng an independent nation needs, v`st

:51:17.:51:21.

mineral resources, we could reopen the pits. North Nottinghamshire is

:51:22.:51:31.

rich in shale gas. How about reopening the knitwear factories?

:51:32.:51:36.

There was a time that peopld in England had nothing else to wear.

:51:37.:51:43.

From Derbyshire we could have Robert Lindsay as head of state from

:51:44.:51:48.

Leicestershire, Gary Lineker, and from Nottinghamshire Rebecc`

:51:49.:51:52.

Adlington. As for the issue of currency, we would not borrow with

:51:53.:52:03.

the pound, we would use the medieval ducat. We would need a propdr

:52:04.:52:06.

national flag. What is disthnct about the Midlands is that ht is in

:52:07.:52:11.

the middle so we could have a design that was all middle and no ddge As

:52:12.:52:22.

for national dress... That hs easy. So there you have it. Polithcally,

:52:23.:52:29.

economically, culturally, the East Midlands has everything it needs to

:52:30.:52:34.

be its own country. Next tile a Scottish army arrives at thhs bridge

:52:35.:52:38.

it is going to show its passport if it wants to get into the independent

:52:39.:52:42.

kingdom of the East Midlands. Robert Shaw, tongue firmly hn cheek.

:52:43.:52:47.

But of course there is a serious side to the debate. We are joined by

:52:48.:52:53.

Melanie Powell, and in? An dconomist from Derby University. If Scotland

:52:54.:52:58.

was to become independent, would it make any difference to us hdre?

:52:59.:53:04.

There are two macro elements, the short term and the uncertainty. ``

:53:05.:53:20.

two elements. Companies that are trading with Scotland could see a

:53:21.:53:24.

short`term problem there. There may be an effect on sterling and a

:53:25.:53:30.

further depreciation, which, of course, can effect export companies

:53:31.:53:41.

and benefit import companies. `` aspect. Even if there is a no vote

:53:42.:53:52.

there is still uncertainty. With a yes vote there would be a htge

:53:53.:53:56.

shift. Would things change hf there was a no vote? Yes, because even if

:53:57.:54:02.

there is the debate is going to change about regional power and the

:54:03.:54:07.

English Parliament that doesn't exist. As nurses have to de`l with

:54:08.:54:13.

that and they have to deal with how that might effect growth in the

:54:14.:54:18.

economy. I think a no vote will not be so damaging, with a yes vote

:54:19.:54:27.

there will be severe uncert`inty. Our MPs have been up to Scotland,

:54:28.:54:35.

how was it? It is a really tough campaign, people are really engaged,

:54:36.:54:39.

everybody knows it is happening people are talking about thd

:54:40.:54:44.

arguments. People feel passhonately on the doorstep, they want to

:54:45.:54:49.

engage. I think politically that is a good thing that it is going to go

:54:50.:54:54.

to the wire and I know that myself and my Labour colleagues will be

:54:55.:54:57.

fighting every step to keep the union. I felt that it is polarising

:54:58.:55:06.

and becoming slightly aggressive in parts between the yes and no

:55:07.:55:12.

campaigners. It is a bit of a civil war and they can be quite bloody.

:55:13.:55:17.

What does it mean for your constituents, do you think they are

:55:18.:55:31.

in gauge to buy it? `` engaged by it. I think there will be a further

:55:32.:55:35.

debate about devolution of controls throughout the rest of the TK and I

:55:36.:55:39.

think that is right. People want to have more of a say and more control

:55:40.:55:46.

over their lives. In the short term it will have an impact. It hs this

:55:47.:55:54.

uncertainty you were saying. How will that be felt in your areas I

:55:55.:56:01.

think there is a backlash on the government backbenches. We

:56:02.:56:03.

understand that David Cameron wants to keep the union together but by

:56:04.:56:13.

offering devolution max, it seems that Ed Miliband has had more to do

:56:14.:56:16.

with this than the backbenches. If we are not careful we will love to a

:56:17.:56:26.

situation where heads, Alex Salmond wins, tales, England loses. There is

:56:27.:56:37.

not just this risk and uncertainty, there is the risk and uncertainty of

:56:38.:56:42.

our membership of the Europdan Union, which companies and

:56:43.:56:48.

businesses are very concerndd about. I understand that the conservatives

:56:49.:56:55.

don't like the risk of uncertainty surrounding Scottish independence

:56:56.:57:01.

but they don't care about this uncertainty. If it is a no vote but

:57:02.:57:07.

only small one, I don't think that will get the question of thd table.

:57:08.:57:13.

Melanie, are we being compl`cent about the prospect of a yes vote?

:57:14.:57:23.

Should as Mrs have a plan rdady `` businesses have. Absolutely, if you

:57:24.:57:30.

are trading internationally or in Scotland you have two considered the

:57:31.:57:37.

risk. The cost of dealing whth the uncertainty will rise as thd

:57:38.:57:42.

uncertainty rises. If you are buying strawberries from Scotland xou might

:57:43.:57:54.

think, if there is a yes vote, will it be certain that Scotland will

:57:55.:57:59.

stay in the Euro? If not, m`ybe we should be Retera off planning to buy

:58:00.:58:12.

from Spain. `` be better off. Which way do you think it will go? That is

:58:13.:58:19.

a tough question. We were t`lking earlier about this. There is the

:58:20.:58:25.

psychology of decision making, most people are risk averse. Thex have

:58:26.:58:34.

the choice between certaintx and the uncertainty of the future and I

:58:35.:58:37.

think in the vote box a lot of people will shift towards the no.

:58:38.:58:43.

Time for a round`up of some of the other political stories in the East

:58:44.:58:48.

Midlands. We might not get independence but

:58:49.:58:52.

could we see one leader for all of our police forces. The Chief

:58:53.:59:02.

Constable of Nottinghamshird says the region should have thred forces.

:59:03.:59:09.

Overall health levels in thd county are good but there are pockdts of

:59:10.:59:15.

ill health. The Labour group ruling

:59:16.:59:20.

Nottinghamshire county council says it is business as usual despite

:59:21.:59:29.

losing its overall majority. One councillor resigned in protdst over

:59:30.:59:34.

cuts and they only had a majority of one.

:59:35.:59:39.

Two Nottinghamshire MPs say they will give away a pay rise to MPs'

:59:40.:59:45.

salaries. They say they will give the money to good causes.

:59:46.:59:55.

Have you spent your pay risd ready? Definitely not, don't think it

:59:56.:59:58.

should be given, will continue to fight against it. I am sure my

:59:59.:00:07.

ex`wife will find a use for it. The last time a sewer was built in

:00:08.:00:14.

London was 150 years ago, otherwise we would have a dirty River Thames.

:00:15.:00:18.

Andrew, back to you. Can

:00:19.:00:23.

the No campaign still pull it off? And even if they do is the whole

:00:24.:00:28.

of the UK now on the brink I'm joined now by John McTernan

:00:29.:00:32.

former adviser to Gordon Brown and Tony Blair, Alex Bell,

:00:33.:00:49.

former Head of Policy for the SNP and Lindsay McIntosh, the

:00:50.:00:52.

Times Scottish Political Editor And I'm delighted that Tommy

:00:53.:00:54.

and George have stayed too. No fighting has broken out either.

:00:55.:01:00.

Where No fighting has broken out either.

:01:01.:01:09.

have three full days to go No fighting has broken out either.

:01:10.:01:09.

polling day. What is the state of play? I think the poll of polls is

:01:10.:01:17.

accurate. 49 and 51%. What is vital is to bring the undecided voters in,

:01:18.:01:21.

and they properly have about 500,000. I think there are a lot of

:01:22.:01:26.

undecided people. I think they know which way they are leaning, but they

:01:27.:01:30.

haven't jumped. The hope of the no campaign is that they will go for

:01:31.:01:37.

the status quo on Thursday. How do you assess the state of the campaign

:01:38.:01:43.

now? The crucial thing is the big swing. The swing has come towards

:01:44.:01:48.

yes, so will the momentum carry it over the line? I will think it does,

:01:49.:01:54.

because it is an antiestablishment swell, and its people responding to

:01:55.:01:58.

standard Western as the politicians and saying that they want a new way

:01:59.:02:02.

-- Westminster politicians. I think that yes will sneak it. A referendum

:02:03.:02:08.

can be more important than a general election, and the Yes campaign have

:02:09.:02:14.

had the momentum. This was the week the momentum stopped. We started the

:02:15.:02:17.

week looking as though yes were going into the lead and then it

:02:18.:02:20.

stopped and most of the recent polls show a distinct lead for the no

:02:21.:02:24.

campaign. A distinct lead? It is one or two points. It is six in one

:02:25.:02:29.

poll, two in another, aiding another. The poll of polls is a good

:02:30.:02:34.

way of measuring, and is it statistically Nick -- nip and tuck?

:02:35.:02:39.

It is the week the momentum stopped. About a fifth of the electorate

:02:40.:02:43.

That will be a quarter of the turnout have voted already, by

:02:44.:02:47.

postal vote, and they are running very strongly towards no, so there

:02:48.:02:52.

is a whole bank of votes there. The postal votes are skewed to the over

:02:53.:02:56.

60s, and that is the demographic that the Yes campaign have had the

:02:57.:03:02.

biggest trouble with. Absolutely, the Yes campaign faced a challenge

:03:03.:03:07.

amongst the 16 and 18-year-olds and always based challenge with the

:03:08.:03:12.

older voters. Trust me, I was the decision the day the civil servants

:03:13.:03:17.

made it possible for the 16 to 18-year-olds to vote, and we said

:03:18.:03:20.

there was a victory for the no campaign in that alone. The young

:03:21.:03:25.

tend to be conservative by nature. I think again that to say that the

:03:26.:03:29.

momentum has stopped when you had a 20 point lead, this is a referendum

:03:30.:03:37.

whether people will speak and they will be heard. Except for the one

:03:38.:03:41.

poll which needs a huge health warning because of the size of the

:03:42.:03:46.

sample, the momentum is unquestionably all the way through

:03:47.:03:49.

August is going in the direction of yes. It hasn't quite continue to get

:03:50.:03:56.

to the 55/45 four yes that Alex Salmond thinks will be the result. I

:03:57.:04:00.

would agree with John. This was the momentum stalled. We saw the three

:04:01.:04:06.

leaders coming up, and that kept Alex Salmond off the front pages on

:04:07.:04:11.

the television and we had a raft of economic warnings which, although

:04:12.:04:14.

they were dismissed as scaremongering, they will have had a

:04:15.:04:16.

lot of traction with voters. What does the no campaign have to do in

:04:17.:04:24.

the final three days? It has to focus on the undecided,

:04:25.:04:29.

relentlessly. It has to do stick to the question of risk and keep

:04:30.:04:32.

pushing back on Alex Salmond to say it doesn't matter if the banks

:04:33.:04:35.

leave, it will all be all right on the night. The huge question amongst

:04:36.:04:40.

the undecided voters is about the economy. It is about jobs and

:04:41.:04:45.

currency, about business. That risk is what will crystallise in the

:04:46.:04:48.

ballot box on Thursday and that has to be the focus. What does the Yes

:04:49.:04:53.

campaign have to do? It has to drive home that the swing to the Yes

:04:54.:04:57.

campaign is motivated by people who want a different politics. They have

:04:58.:05:01.

decided amongst themselves that they want to change Scotland. The

:05:02.:05:03.

unfortunate thing is, even though the no campaign has had the chance

:05:04.:05:09.

to put up after proposals, they have failed. The Scottish people want

:05:10.:05:12.

their powers were a purpose and they say that only the Yes campaign can

:05:13.:05:17.

deliver that. There will be two days of relentless campaigning from

:05:18.:05:20.

today, Monday and Tuesday, then the media, the newspapers, including

:05:21.:05:23.

your own, will come out with the final poll, the ones that will be

:05:24.:05:29.

the closest to the day that the Scots actually go and vote. I think

:05:30.:05:34.

we will see more polling this week, but what is interesting is the

:05:35.:05:36.

extent to which the pollsters are picking up what is going on in the

:05:37.:05:40.

street. We know we have a huge number of voters who have never

:05:41.:05:43.

voted before and are not engage with politics, so what will they do? The

:05:44.:05:49.

third candidate in the election if I can would in this way, are the

:05:50.:05:53.

polls. They might have a lot of questions to answer on Friday

:05:54.:05:56.

morning. We were talking earlier with George and Tommy about the

:05:57.:05:59.

Labour Party's consequences in all of this. Gordon Brown, of course,

:06:00.:06:05.

has had a bit of a second coming as a result of this referendum. I just

:06:06.:06:09.

want to play a clip of Gordon Brown during the campaign and get a

:06:10.:06:13.

reaction. And I say this to Alex Salmond himself. Up until today I am

:06:14.:06:22.

outside front line politics. If he continues to peddle this deception,

:06:23.:06:25.

that the Scottish Parliament under his leadership, and he cannot do

:06:26.:06:30.

anything to improve the health service until he has a separate

:06:31.:06:37.

state, then I will want to join Joe Hanlon want in and securing the

:06:38.:06:40.

return of a Labour government as quickly as possible -- Johann

:06:41.:06:48.

Lamont. That was seen by some people as Gordon Brown implying he might

:06:49.:06:51.

stand for the Scottish Parliament. Whether it is yes or no, is Gordon

:06:52.:06:54.

Brown the saviour of Scottish Labour? I did a double black the

:06:55.:07:01.

other night -- double act with him the other night, and I must say he

:07:02.:07:04.

was a big beast all over again. He crossed the stage Meli dealt with

:07:05.:07:10.

the audience brilliantly. He has a certain presence, Gordon Brown, but

:07:11.:07:14.

he would really have to reinvent himself quite considerably. He is

:07:15.:07:20.

capable of doing, but the man who was the biographer of Jimmy Maxton,

:07:21.:07:25.

who pulled together the original red paper on Scotland, he would have to

:07:26.:07:29.

be that Gordon Brown rather than the Gordon Brown of some more melancholy

:07:30.:07:33.

events later. Tommy, you have both been critical of the state of the

:07:34.:07:36.

Scottish Labour Party. Rather than looking to Gordon Brown, which might

:07:37.:07:40.

be an interim solution, doesn't Scottish Labour have to find a new

:07:41.:07:44.

generation of people to reignite it? What George and I are agreed on and

:07:45.:07:48.

you have to remember this question of independence see us disagreeing

:07:49.:07:53.

passionately, and in most other things we find ourselves in

:07:54.:07:57.

agreement, one thing is clear, Scottish Labour is finished. They

:07:58.:08:00.

have lost the heart and soul of Scotland. The fact that we are

:08:01.:08:07.

discussing with four days to go an independence referendum that is neck

:08:08.:08:12.

and neck, Labour have failed miserably, absolutely miserably

:08:13.:08:14.

because they have given up everything they stood for. The SNP

:08:15.:08:19.

has picked it up. They have just taken on the bank -- mantle of a

:08:20.:08:22.

left of centre party and are picking up support. Gordon and the rest in

:08:23.:08:27.

my opinion, they represent the past. The yes vote on the Yes campaign

:08:28.:08:30.

represents the future. What do you say to that? There is nothing

:08:31.:08:36.

socialist about an SNP that wants to cut business tax by 3% in the pan.

:08:37.:08:41.

There is nothing socialist about an SNP destroying further education so

:08:42.:08:43.

they can give middle-class people free education. The Labour Party is

:08:44.:08:49.

alive and kicking. You can see if it is Gordon Brown, or Jim Murphy with

:08:50.:08:55.

the 100 days tour. But I hesitate to use this word, but they are kind of

:08:56.:08:59.

privatised from the Scottish Labour Party. They have rode their own

:09:00.:09:04.

fallow. Jim Murphy was on the stump because official Scottish Labour did

:09:05.:09:07.

not want him leading their campaign. Gordon Brown was, I think, kept off

:09:08.:09:12.

the stage until it became so critical that he had to be brought

:09:13.:09:18.

back. I agree with John, the SNP talks left but acts right. That is

:09:19.:09:25.

before they get state powers. That is what is exciting about the

:09:26.:09:28.

referendum, it's not about the SNP, it's about the people deciding. What

:09:29.:09:32.

we have heard so far in the referendum campaign is that there is

:09:33.:09:35.

a desperate yearning in the electorate for real politics,

:09:36.:09:38.

purposeful politics and for the people to be represented. It is

:09:39.:09:42.

probably to the eternal shame of labour that they gave up that role

:09:43.:09:46.

and other people are now taking it upon themselves. How would you

:09:47.:09:49.

assess the state of the Labour Party? The problem is that it was

:09:50.:09:54.

demolished by the SNP in 2011 and what they should have done since

:09:55.:09:57.

then and in other circumstances is take a real look within themselves

:09:58.:10:01.

and brought forward new talent and policies and watch out what they

:10:02.:10:05.

stood for. They've been unable to do that because they are locked in a

:10:06.:10:11.

constitutional row. It is the plan of the Nationalists to fight the

:10:12.:10:15.

first Scottish general election as an independent nation as a

:10:16.:10:17.

nationalist party with its own programme. You don't all go your own

:10:18.:10:22.

way. Why don't you do that? You have more on your main reason to be, so

:10:23.:10:26.

why not go, left, right and centre question you are presuming you don't

:10:27.:10:32.

go the one-way. I do not see the function of the SNP after the yes

:10:33.:10:35.

vote. I think it is clear that there is an SNP under Nicola Sturgeon an

:10:36.:10:40.

SNP which attracts votes from the left and that is the one for me

:10:41.:10:43.

Whether that is called the SNP or something else, I don't know. I

:10:44.:10:46.

think the assumption that we are going into a mirror of old politics

:10:47.:10:51.

in a new world is just fundamentally flawed. That is interesting. Let's

:10:52.:10:59.

just bring in the English dimensional. In many ways, England

:11:00.:11:02.

has not spoken in this referendum campaign. Whether it is yes or no,

:11:03.:11:07.

it will, and to give you a flavour of what some in England might be

:11:08.:11:11.

thinking was saying, here is a clip from John Redwood. We are fed up

:11:12.:11:16.

with this lopsided devolution, this unfair devolution. Scotland gets

:11:17.:11:20.

first-class Devolution, Wales gets second-class devolution and England

:11:21.:11:23.

gets nothing. If Wales wants the same as us, they should have it and

:11:24.:11:27.

then there would be commonality so we could discuss and decide in our

:11:28.:11:31.

own countries, in our own assemblies in Parliament, all those things that

:11:32.:11:38.

are devolved. George, it was clear that if Scotland voted yes for

:11:39.:11:41.

independence it has huge implications for England than the

:11:42.:11:45.

UK, but it's also clear particularly after Gordon Brown's intervention,

:11:46.:11:49.

even if it is no, it has huge applications. You are, I suggest,

:11:50.:11:53.

agreeing with John Redwood that there should be an English boys It

:11:54.:11:59.

would be a step too far for me to agree with him -- English voice I

:12:00.:12:03.

appreciate I might have gone out on a limb. He is the voice of Mars the

:12:04.:12:10.

Balkan from Mars. My own constituents in Bradford are asking,

:12:11.:12:14.

what about us? All these things being done, all the extra mile is

:12:15.:12:18.

being travel to Scotland, what about us? Labour would be well advised to

:12:19.:12:23.

adjust quickly on this so that the John Redwood types do not steal the

:12:24.:12:29.

show. England has yes to use -- yet to speak. It's interesting when you

:12:30.:12:33.

hear a Labour backbencher in Scotland talk about a command paper.

:12:34.:12:40.

He is not in government. Gordon Brown is going round Scotland

:12:41.:12:43.

promising things and he has absolutely no chance of delivering

:12:44.:12:47.

them. The MPs in England will say, hey, what are you talking about We

:12:48.:12:52.

have never been discussed with that? We have not agreed with that. The

:12:53.:12:56.

only way people in Scotland will get the powers they deserve is by voting

:12:57.:13:00.

yes. Crystal ball time, Tommy, you think it is 60/40. I will stick with

:13:01.:13:05.

it, because we have an unprecedented election. 97% of Scotland is

:13:06.:13:10.

registered to vote. The working class will vote in numbers never

:13:11.:13:16.

voted before. George? 55/45 for our side. And if there is a rogue poll,

:13:17.:13:23.

the tek Levesley polled -- technically flawed poll, which

:13:24.:13:27.

should not be published because it is so flawed, then we would be

:13:28.:13:30.

stretching towards what I am predicting already. I think in the

:13:31.:13:33.

last few days we will reach that. Come on. If the no campaign can get

:13:34.:13:39.

the silent majority out, they will edge it. You think they will win,

:13:40.:13:45.

but how much? They cannot give up in a second, a moment or a mile. It is

:13:46.:13:51.

that close. It will be won by the passionate view. I will go for a

:13:52.:13:58.

narrow yes victory. I'm the George, 53 or 54% in favour of Joe -- no. --

:13:59.:14:05.

I am with George. I will leave you to argue about that later. Thank you

:14:06.:14:08.

for being with us on the special Sunday politics from Edinburgh.

:14:09.:14:11.

That's all from us today in Scotland.

:14:12.:14:12.

Don't forget the Daily Politics will have continuing coverage

:14:13.:14:15.

of the referendum campaign all this week on BBC2 at midday.

:14:16.:14:17.

On Thursday night Huw Edwards will be in Glasgow and I will be

:14:18.:14:21.

in London to bring you live coverage of the results on BBC1 from 10. 0 pm

:14:22.:14:24.

on a historic night for Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

:14:25.:14:28.

And I'll be back next Sunday when we're live from the Labour

:14:29.:14:31.

Unless, of course, the referendum result is so tumultuous even the

:14:32.:14:38.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:14:39.:14:44.

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