05/02/2017 Sunday Politics East


05/02/2017

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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

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and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

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the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

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After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

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it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

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tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

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is making good on his campaign promises.

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As the Government gets into gear for two years

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of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

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over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

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and the costs and savings once we've left.

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And with me, as always, a trio of top political

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journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

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So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

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of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

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Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

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with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

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Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

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will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

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Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

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Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

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blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

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The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

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about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

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The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

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and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

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Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

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difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

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Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

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We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

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But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

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we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

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That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

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torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

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situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

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drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

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What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

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plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

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only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

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Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

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else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

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Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

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the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

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like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

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something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

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main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

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Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

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50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

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abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

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North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

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our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

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policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

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divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

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divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

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moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

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meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

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point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

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a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

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that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

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negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

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sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

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against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

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been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

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meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

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government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

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those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

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the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

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on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

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struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

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bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

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everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

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Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

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earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

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this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

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power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

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may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

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Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

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on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

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we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

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when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

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are published in the Government's new white paper.

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Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

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by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

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Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

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and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

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It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

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It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

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vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

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So, is that what's going to happen now?

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The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

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and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

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She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

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According to the most recent Treasury figures,

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Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

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is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

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There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

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or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

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will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

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But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

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First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

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It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

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and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

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as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

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The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

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to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

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but what does the money they are going to argue

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Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

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already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

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Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

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so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

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Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

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spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

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Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

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for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

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12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

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Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

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They include things like this building, the European Commission

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Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

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euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

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So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

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They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

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because actually they can hold us to ransom.

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They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

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But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

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a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

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negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

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The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

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contributions to the European Union every year will end.

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Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

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to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

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The Europol for example, that's the European crime

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agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

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If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

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675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

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But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

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If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

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trade, universities and, say, climate change,

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it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

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Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

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I wonder if they're going to let me in!

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There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

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trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

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Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

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between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

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That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

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though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

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the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

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Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

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contribution for some preferential access to its market?

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The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

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at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

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Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

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pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

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but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

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The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

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in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

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and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

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Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

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when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

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But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

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Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

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And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

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by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

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and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

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Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

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the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

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of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

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should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

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ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

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the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

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personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

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getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

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departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

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settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

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they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

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if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

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in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

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a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

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divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

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Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

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thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

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softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

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divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

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the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

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atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

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Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

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or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

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believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

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start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

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prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

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cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

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figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

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negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

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60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

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May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

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could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

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be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

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Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

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give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

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her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

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weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

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detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

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helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

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line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

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there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

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the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

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have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

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spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

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what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

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NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

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Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

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question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

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of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

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European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

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settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

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politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

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for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

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Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

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issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

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to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

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will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

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What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

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Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

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and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

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bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

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the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

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Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

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Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

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Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

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or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

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the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

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the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

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will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

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not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

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UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

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scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

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to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

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security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

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was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

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more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

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little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

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ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

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Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

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own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

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of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

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options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

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looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

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recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

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boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

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practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

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Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

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country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

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quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

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the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

:19:10.:19:14.

eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

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is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

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tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

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mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

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but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

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origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

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because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

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customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

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South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

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don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

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lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

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negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

:20:02.:20:03.

reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

:20:04.:20:21.

solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

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positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

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turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

:20:27.:20:29.

really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

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wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

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crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

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trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

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hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

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you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

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crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

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arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

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will leave it there. Thank you, both.

:21:04.:21:04.

Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

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and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

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countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

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On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

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That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

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criticising what he says was a terrible decision

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by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

:21:22.:21:23.

Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

:21:24.:21:31.

the ban until it hears the case in full.

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Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

:21:44.:21:47.

I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

:21:48.:21:51.

was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

:21:52.:21:53.

There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

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facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

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inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

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of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

:22:19.:22:27.

and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

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no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

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I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

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being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

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travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

:22:49.:22:57.

chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

:22:58.:23:02.

National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

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what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

:23:08.:23:10.

going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

:23:11.:23:17.

world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

:23:18.:23:25.

Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

:23:26.:23:28.

kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

:23:29.:23:32.

they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

:23:33.:23:37.

last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

:23:38.:23:42.

multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

:23:43.:23:49.

Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

:23:50.:23:52.

President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

:23:53.:23:57.

general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

:23:58.:24:02.

seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

:24:03.:24:09.

coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

:24:10.:24:15.

under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

:24:16.:24:19.

to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

:24:20.:24:27.

together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

:24:28.:24:33.

like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

:24:34.:24:38.

these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

:24:39.:24:42.

alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

:24:43.:24:47.

talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

:24:48.:24:51.

to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

:24:52.:24:55.

simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

:24:56.:24:59.

agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

:25:00.:25:03.

only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

:25:04.:25:08.

he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

:25:09.:25:20.

is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

:25:21.:25:25.

spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

:25:26.:25:30.

up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

:25:31.:25:36.

that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

:25:37.:25:42.

salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

:25:43.:25:49.

and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

:25:50.:26:00.

not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

:26:01.:26:04.

administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

:26:05.:26:07.

interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

:26:08.:26:15.

EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

:26:16.:26:20.

to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

:26:21.:26:26.

wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

:26:27.:26:30.

was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

:26:31.:26:35.

become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

:26:36.:26:38.

would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

:26:39.:26:44.

will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

:26:45.:26:47.

have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

:26:48.:26:51.

whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

:26:52.:26:55.

suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

:26:56.:27:00.

nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

:27:01.:27:05.

answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

:27:06.:27:09.

to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

:27:10.:27:15.

institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

:27:16.:27:22.

unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

:27:23.:27:26.

opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

:27:27.:27:31.

nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

:27:32.:27:37.

it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

:27:38.:27:40.

don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

:27:41.:27:45.

account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

:27:46.:27:51.

President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

:27:52.:27:55.

obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

:27:56.:27:59.

the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

:28:00.:28:04.

interests of the people they represent. Given the

:28:05.:28:06.

unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

:28:07.:28:09.

what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

:28:10.:28:14.

Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

:28:15.:28:22.

questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

:28:23.:28:25.

to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

:28:26.:28:31.

be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

:28:32.:28:34.

the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

:28:35.:28:41.

we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

:28:42.:28:45.

Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

:28:46.:28:51.

next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

:28:52.:28:56.

election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

:28:57.:29:02.

flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

:29:03.:29:07.

perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

:29:08.:29:11.

and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

:29:12.:29:17.

we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

:29:18.:29:24.

Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

:29:25.:29:31.

capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

:29:32.:29:33.

change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

:29:34.:29:35.

of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

:29:36.:29:38.

about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

:29:39.:29:41.

of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

:29:42.:29:44.

of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

:29:45.:29:47.

new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

:29:48.:29:49.

new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

:29:50.:29:52.

has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

:29:53.:29:57.

of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

:29:58.:30:00.

to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

:30:01.:30:05.

to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

:30:06.:30:07.

on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

:30:08.:30:11.

relaxation of building height restrictions,

:30:12.:30:13.

allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

:30:14.:30:15.

of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

:30:16.:30:17.

planning permission. Other elements trialled include

:30:18.:30:23.

new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

:30:24.:30:27.

without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

:30:28.:30:29.

station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

:30:30.:30:31.

will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

:30:32.:30:40.

to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

:30:41.:30:43.

for young families, alongside its proposed ban

:30:44.:30:45.

on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

:30:46.:30:52.

Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

:30:53.:31:02.

ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

:31:03.:31:05.

emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

:31:06.:31:10.

Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

:31:11.:31:13.

that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

:31:14.:31:18.

far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

:31:19.:31:21.

absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

:31:22.:31:27.

so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

:31:28.:31:29.

everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

:31:30.:31:33.

want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

:31:34.:31:38.

used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

:31:39.:31:42.

government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

:31:43.:31:47.

stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

:31:48.:31:51.

bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

:31:52.:31:56.

decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

:31:57.:32:00.

the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

:32:01.:32:04.

helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

:32:05.:32:08.

it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

:32:09.:32:12.

say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

:32:13.:32:18.

additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

:32:19.:32:22.

properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

:32:23.:32:26.

speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

:32:27.:32:29.

concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

:32:30.:32:34.

is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

:32:35.:32:41.

investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

:32:42.:32:44.

the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

:32:45.:32:49.

money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

:32:50.:32:52.

before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

:32:53.:32:55.

infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

:32:56.:33:00.

already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

:33:01.:33:02.

some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

:33:03.:33:07.

White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

:33:08.:33:18.

rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

:33:19.:33:20.

day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

:33:21.:33:23.

on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

:33:24.:33:26.

need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

:33:27.:33:29.

developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

:33:30.:33:36.

renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

:33:37.:33:42.

below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

:33:43.:33:46.

another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

:33:47.:33:50.

their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

:33:51.:33:54.

we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

:33:55.:33:57.

rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

:33:58.:34:01.

because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

:34:02.:34:04.

Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

:34:05.:34:09.

six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

:34:10.:34:17.

homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

:34:18.:34:20.

programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

:34:21.:34:25.

The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

:34:26.:34:27.

last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

:34:28.:34:31.

programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

:34:32.:34:35.

this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

:34:36.:34:41.

one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

:34:42.:34:47.

figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

:34:48.:34:50.

cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

:34:51.:34:56.

happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

:34:57.:35:00.

leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

:35:01.:35:06.

promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

:35:07.:35:10.

George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

:35:11.:35:15.

changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

:35:16.:35:20.

we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

:35:21.:35:24.

six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

:35:25.:35:29.

the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

:35:30.:35:33.

tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

:35:34.:35:37.

Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

:35:38.:35:42.

institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

:35:43.:35:47.

and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

:35:48.:35:51.

short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

:35:52.:35:56.

return and give families more security. You have set a target,

:35:57.:36:03.

your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

:36:04.:36:06.

new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

:36:07.:36:14.

are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

:36:15.:36:17.

country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

:36:18.:36:25.

2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

:36:26.:36:31.

about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

:36:32.:36:34.

respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

:36:35.:36:40.

wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

:36:41.:36:44.

built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

:36:45.:36:46.

change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

:36:47.:36:53.

figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

:36:54.:36:57.

million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

:36:58.:37:02.

quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

:37:03.:37:07.

million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

:37:08.:37:11.

do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

:37:12.:37:16.

country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

:37:17.:37:20.

or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

:37:21.:37:25.

If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

:37:26.:37:31.

100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

:37:32.:37:35.

confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

:37:36.:37:40.

is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

:37:41.:37:44.

are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

:37:45.:37:50.

white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

:37:51.:37:53.

for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

:37:54.:37:58.

land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

:37:59.:38:00.

look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

:38:01.:38:07.

have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

:38:08.:38:13.

homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

:38:14.:38:17.

housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

:38:18.:38:20.

belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

:38:21.:38:23.

Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

:38:24.:38:25.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:26.:38:28.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

:38:29.:38:37.

Hello, welcome to Sunday politics East.

:38:38.:38:39.

Later in the programme, are councils struggling to keep up

:38:40.:38:46.

with the soaring number of people sleeping on the streets?

:38:47.:38:49.

Prevention work is important, but we are effective

:38:50.:38:50.

Perhaps we're a little bit overpowered by the numbers.

:38:51.:38:57.

Joining us this week are Alistair Burt, a former

:38:58.:38:59.

minister and Conservative MP for North East Bedfordshire,

:39:00.:39:02.

and Labour's Kelvin Hopkins, veteran Brexiteer and MP.

:39:03.:39:07.

And of course this week has seen the historic vote

:39:08.:39:10.

which will enable us to leave the EU.

:39:11.:39:14.

That has been a source of great joy to people like Kelvin Hopkins,

:39:15.:39:17.

who has campaigned to leave the EU all his life.

:39:18.:39:20.

Not so for remainers like Alistair Burt.

:39:21.:39:22.

We'll hear from both of them in a moment.

:39:23.:39:25.

Tonight, there will be a historic vote in this place.

:39:26.:39:33.

A vote that I never thought I would see in my political lifetime.

:39:34.:39:37.

This will be the most significant decision that Parliament has taken

:39:38.:39:40.

probably during my time as a Member of Parliament.

:39:41.:39:43.

In the referendum we all stood up and we spoke passionately

:39:44.:39:46.

for our respective sides, but now is the time for us to do

:39:47.:39:49.

the other courageous thing and listen to the will

:39:50.:39:51.

I don't feel comfortable about voting to block Article 50

:39:52.:40:02.

proceeding because I think that would conflict with the outcome

:40:03.:40:04.

We voted to have the referendum and I think we have

:40:05.:40:10.

The discipline that Brexit imposes upon us is to listen very carefully

:40:11.:40:21.

to people in Britain who clearly feel they have not been listened

:40:22.:40:24.

I think if we're honest, we need to say that it will be

:40:25.:40:33.

difficult for the European Union to reach a deal.

:40:34.:40:37.

They are a complex organisation with multiple levels of interest

:40:38.:40:40.

and many other issues that affect their agenda even though

:40:41.:40:43.

we here would like to see our point at the top of their agenda.

:40:44.:40:48.

The degree of detail to be covered is staggering,

:40:49.:40:52.

both for us and our partners and new consequences

:40:53.:40:54.

It is way more complicated than some of our colleagues

:40:55.:40:59.

Three quarters of people in Cambridge voted to remain.

:41:00.:41:04.

I came into Parliament to represent their views and they've

:41:05.:41:06.

put their trust in me and I will not betray that.

:41:07.:41:10.

I enjoy being on the Shadow Cabinet, but this is a bigger issue than that

:41:11.:41:14.

and I'm prepared to walk if that's what I have to do.

:41:15.:41:17.

But I have to represent what my heart tells me

:41:18.:41:22.

and what my conscience tells me, and also what my constituents think.

:41:23.:41:25.

If it comes to it, that's what I'll do.

:41:26.:41:28.

Kelvin Hopkins, should Jeremy Corbyn sack Clive Lewis

:41:29.:41:30.

It's for Jeremy to make, but I wouldn't do it personally.

:41:31.:41:39.

I remember back in 1975 Harold Wilson and some

:41:40.:41:43.

of the minority of the Labour Party then wanted to stay in the common

:41:44.:41:46.

market and they allowed people to vote both ways.

:41:47.:41:51.

The great majority of the Labour Members

:41:52.:41:56.

of Parliament voted to leave, but Harold Wilson and a few

:41:57.:41:58.

I don't want to see Clive resign, personally.

:41:59.:42:05.

I think you have to accept that we're going to leave

:42:06.:42:08.

the European Union now and we've got to get on and try to build

:42:09.:42:11.

democratic socialism, which is what I'm about.

:42:12.:42:13.

Alistair Burt, do you have any sympathy for Clive Lewis?

:42:14.:42:17.

You had to vote for something this week that you don't believe

:42:18.:42:20.

in at all and that you think would be detrimental.

:42:21.:42:25.

I've voted for something I did believe in, which is the democratic

:42:26.:42:28.

But as I said in my speech, I'm reconciled to the concept

:42:29.:42:34.

of Brexit, I'm not convinced about the wisdom of it.

:42:35.:42:36.

So yes, sometimes you have to do things because...

:42:37.:42:38.

It's difficult for you, a lot of soul-searching went on this week.

:42:39.:42:42.

We're going to do it and we're going to do it

:42:43.:42:49.

as well as we possibly can, but I've not changed my mind

:42:50.:42:52.

on whether or not I think we should have stayed in the EU.

:42:53.:42:56.

I do entirely sympathise with colleagues who on this issue,

:42:57.:43:09.

which has governed us for 30 to 40 years in British politics.

:43:10.:43:14.

I've had colleagues tossing and turning, it's very difficult,

:43:15.:43:17.

I sympathise with all colleagues who had difficult decisions to make.

:43:18.:43:19.

Did you stay in the house to hear the result?

:43:20.:43:21.

I went through the lobby, I knew what the result was going to be.

:43:22.:43:26.

I've had the cheers of some of my colleagues ringing in my ears

:43:27.:43:29.

for some time and there were some colleagues I didn't

:43:30.:43:31.

particularly want to sit near to during that period.

:43:32.:43:34.

Kelvin Hopkins, this may not be hard for you,

:43:35.:43:36.

When we voted to stay in the common market in 1975,

:43:37.:43:44.

which I remember well, there was a large number of Labour

:43:45.:43:47.

A minority, but still a large number.

:43:48.:43:50.

You've always had different views on these things.

:43:51.:43:53.

I want to persuade my colleagues that the EU is essentially

:43:54.:43:55.

anti-democratic and anti-socialist, which I've said all the time.

:43:56.:43:57.

I've not heard a convincing argument to the counter of that.

:43:58.:44:02.

Our objective is to make a better working life for people and I think

:44:03.:44:07.

The great thing about all this is that Kelvin is a dedicated

:44:08.:44:11.

socialist who believes the EU has been a capitalist construct.

:44:12.:44:13.

My colleagues, like Iain Duncan Smith and John Redwood,

:44:14.:44:15.

However, the debate is done, the arguments are had.

:44:16.:44:21.

I've not been able to convince people so now we've got to create

:44:22.:44:24.

a new and better relationship with Europe with us outside.

:44:25.:44:27.

I think we're both dedicated to this.

:44:28.:44:29.

In the first place, I think the period of negotiation will be

:44:30.:44:33.

When you think about it, 27 different nations,

:44:34.:44:36.

the European Parliament, the Commission, have all got

:44:37.:44:38.

to agree at the end of the process to the negotiation deal

:44:39.:44:41.

It's not all about us, it's all about them.

:44:42.:44:48.

To imagine we'll get people into that place easily seems to me

:44:49.:44:51.

We're going to have to work on this very hard.

:44:52.:44:54.

I still believe getting a deal is better than walking

:44:55.:44:57.

away and a WTO solution, but I'm concerned that I think

:44:58.:44:59.

I have some colleagues that believe it's better to do that rather

:45:00.:45:03.

than get negotiation and a new relationship.

:45:04.:45:04.

It's going to be difficult, it's going to be complicated,

:45:05.:45:06.

But I think the idea that the European Union

:45:07.:45:15.

could actually overturn the decision made by the British

:45:16.:45:17.

If at the end of the day the European Union tries to be

:45:18.:45:22.

difficult, we'll just have to say we're going anyway.

:45:23.:45:25.

Interestingly, I think they've got a great deal of interest in securing

:45:26.:45:27.

a good relationship with us because we have a gigantic

:45:28.:45:30.

We buy much more from them than they buy from us.

:45:31.:45:34.

The cohesion of Europe, keeping Europe together,

:45:35.:45:36.

governs their thinking more than any individual trade deal.

:45:37.:45:38.

They don't want people to peel off and do the same.

:45:39.:45:41.

Keeping the European Union together is absolutely fundamental to that.

:45:42.:45:45.

I don't think we've fully grasped that.

:45:46.:45:47.

Let's move on to the growing problem of homelessness.

:45:48.:45:54.

According to the latest figures, the number of people sleeping rough

:45:55.:45:58.

rough in this region has more than doubled.

:45:59.:46:00.

Luton, King's Lynn, Norwich and Cambridge have seen some

:46:01.:46:02.

Numbers here have been climbing since 2010 when there were 212

:46:03.:46:06.

There was then a steep rise to 460 in 2015.

:46:07.:46:13.

And it was up again last year as well, with 650 rough sleepers.

:46:14.:46:18.

Sleeping on the street is only part of the picture.

:46:19.:46:21.

The numbers in temporary accommodation have also soared.

:46:22.:46:24.

We have two reports on homelessness now.

:46:25.:46:28.

Sam Read looks at the problems in Northampton, but first, Sean Peel

:46:29.:46:31.

It's barely daylight, this city is still in slumberland,

:46:32.:46:47.

but outreach workers Kendal and Tim are walking the streets,

:46:48.:46:49.

We go out at 6am to see who's out and about,

:46:50.:46:54.

what rough sleepers are out, engage with them, make sure

:46:55.:46:56.

they are OK, see if there are any new faces that we need to engage

:46:57.:46:59.

with and let them know how we can help.

:47:00.:47:06.

Cuts to services, mental health services being one, is a factor.

:47:07.:47:14.

People being evicted because of Universal Credit being introduced.

:47:15.:47:21.

One of the main reasons people sleep rough is

:47:22.:47:23.

Some rough sleepers might get a place at homeless

:47:24.:47:32.

It's nearly always full so next week they are opening some new rooms.

:47:33.:47:37.

We had seen an increase in rough sleepers over

:47:38.:47:39.

the last couple of years, it is steadily growing.

:47:40.:47:41.

We put this plan together and we couldn't get to it fast

:47:42.:47:44.

enough because the numbers have gone up since then.

:47:45.:47:46.

We know that nationally there is a 16% rise in rough

:47:47.:47:49.

sleeping across the country so we're not alone.

:47:50.:47:52.

The number of people sleeping rough in our region has rocketed

:47:53.:47:55.

in the last year alone, double in some cases.

:47:56.:47:58.

In Bedfordshire, in Luton, it was 76.

:47:59.:48:00.

Cambridge had 40 and according to the last count,

:48:01.:48:05.

In Bedford, where the numbers of rough sleepers is in the top ten

:48:06.:48:12.

nationally, TV presenter Max McMurdo, who is from the town,

:48:13.:48:14.

He's taken his parents's old caravan and turned it into a soup kitchen

:48:15.:48:20.

with the help of his chef friend Luke and a homeless

:48:21.:48:23.

Bring this to the boil, keep it nice and hot and we'll

:48:24.:48:30.

We all experience it, we walk down the street and see

:48:31.:48:34.

someone sitting there, but we don't really know what to do.

:48:35.:48:37.

Do you give them money, do you give them hand-outs?

:48:38.:48:41.

People often just walk away rather than doing anything.

:48:42.:48:44.

I don't have loads of money, I don't own a charity,

:48:45.:48:48.

but I thought, let's turn it into a portable soup kitchen.

:48:49.:48:54.

This week was Soupervan's maiden voyage as night falls

:48:55.:48:56.

and the temperature drops, people are already waiting.

:48:57.:48:58.

People like David, who's been sleeping rough

:48:59.:49:00.

You get people coming out of the pubs that are drunk and kick

:49:01.:49:06.

If it weren't for them, half of us would be dead

:49:07.:49:14.

because they come out and feed us every day of the week.

:49:15.:49:17.

A couple of guys have got on board and had bowls of soup.

:49:18.:49:20.

I'm sure that over time it will be a slow burner,

:49:21.:49:23.

but we've got about 20 people here tonight and knowing

:49:24.:49:26.

there are about 60 rough sleepers, that's a third already.

:49:27.:49:28.

Hopefully word will spread and we will get increased numbers

:49:29.:49:31.

A Northampton day centre, offering a warm meal for people

:49:32.:49:35.

who know all too well what it's like not to have a home.

:49:36.:49:38.

I think you still need to make the best out of the worst situation.

:49:39.:49:54.

Local authorities are being asked to do more.

:49:55.:49:59.

Northampton Borough Council this week opened a new night shelter

:50:00.:50:02.

But the Homelessness Reduction Bill, going through Parliament now,

:50:03.:50:10.

would ask local authorities to do more prevention work,

:50:11.:50:12.

with single people, and not just families.

:50:13.:50:13.

The government has announced ?48 million to help local authorities

:50:14.:50:16.

meet the new requirements for support under the new bill.

:50:17.:50:20.

But some are questioning whether that's enough.

:50:21.:50:23.

We do as much prevention work as we can and the money will come

:50:24.:50:30.

in handy because maybe we'll be able to engage more staff

:50:31.:50:33.

But yes, prevention work is important, but we are effective

:50:34.:50:37.

Perhaps we're little bit overpowered by the numbers.

:50:38.:50:43.

Back in the day centre, people can take a break.

:50:44.:50:50.

But staff here know homelessness is rising

:50:51.:50:52.

It's to do with policy, it's to do with housing crisis,

:50:53.:50:56.

it's to do with stagnation of wages and it's to do with

:50:57.:50:59.

Sometimes they think I can kick this person out

:51:00.:51:03.

But landlords say margins are small and the upcoming removal of some tax

:51:04.:51:08.

relief for landlords will put on more pressure.

:51:09.:51:12.

It just so happens it's houses, but everybody else has to have

:51:13.:51:16.

some sort of capital, whether it's the shop

:51:17.:51:19.

that they are paying rent on, staff that are paid to make cups

:51:20.:51:22.

Many people don't see it, we just do it slightly differently.

:51:23.:51:27.

Ours is mainly capital because we are buying a house.

:51:28.:51:29.

But we still have to do all the repairs.

:51:30.:51:32.

This problem has been growing for several years.

:51:33.:51:36.

It has huge social costs, personal costs, but also financial

:51:37.:51:40.

costs when you consider that the impact of preventing

:51:41.:51:45.

homelessness for 40,000 people will be a ?370 million

:51:46.:51:48.

Stephen Woods knows all about the personal cost.

:51:49.:51:54.

The so-called bedroom tax, or spare room subsidy,

:51:55.:51:58.

and other benefit changes meant he faced eviction twice from his

:51:59.:52:00.

The Northampton Community Law Service helped keep him in his home.

:52:01.:52:09.

If I don't live here, I'm not going to get

:52:10.:52:16.

anywhere else to live, I'll be living on the streets.

:52:17.:52:21.

For me, I don't think I'd survive very long out there.

:52:22.:52:28.

No one would object to everyone having their own place

:52:29.:52:31.

The question is whether this new bill will help get us any

:52:32.:52:35.

I'm joined now by Cambridge's councillor for housing, Kevin Price.

:52:36.:52:40.

Cambridge has seen one of the highest increases.

:52:41.:52:43.

Why are you failing to keep pace with the problem?

:52:44.:52:48.

I don't see it that we are failing to keep pace with the problem.

:52:49.:52:51.

As you've seen, this is a national problem.

:52:52.:52:55.

The increase in homelessness is not just confined

:52:56.:52:57.

But other places are doing better than you with the problem.

:52:58.:53:02.

We already spend a lot of money on homelessness prevention

:53:03.:53:08.

and our single homelessness service has prevented some 350

:53:09.:53:10.

In 2010, there were something like 144 homeless applications

:53:11.:53:22.

It's not a question of us not keeping pace, it is a question

:53:23.:53:34.

of so many national changes taking effect in a place where the cost

:53:35.:53:37.

of living, like Cambridge, which is very, very high.

:53:38.:53:42.

We heard the councillor in that report describe feeling

:53:43.:53:45.

Is this a problem that's difficult to cope with?

:53:46.:53:57.

I wouldn't say I'm overwhelmed by it, we're disappointed

:53:58.:53:59.

But we are aware that more and more people now are losing private rented

:54:00.:54:07.

sector tenancies and as such have nowhere else to turn.

:54:08.:54:14.

Councils like ours, we are a stockholding

:54:15.:54:15.

authority, we just don't have the numbers of homes.

:54:16.:54:20.

We heard the representative from Crisis make that case.

:54:21.:54:28.

By preventing this, it's a very financially good decision.

:54:29.:54:33.

We put as much money as we've got that we can put in.

:54:34.:54:46.

I hear that the Homelessness Prevention Bill will provide some

:54:47.:54:48.

more money and of course all extra income will be welcome.

:54:49.:54:51.

I'm not sure the amount they are talking about will do.

:54:52.:54:55.

Not enough money coming from central government, that's

:54:56.:54:59.

There's something like a ?500 million programme on homelessness

:55:00.:55:06.

The government reckons it saved maybe a million people

:55:07.:55:10.

There's been an increase from the time that your report

:55:11.:55:17.

was compiled, it's now ?61 million that the government

:55:18.:55:19.

It's a bill that's been compiled with all-party support

:55:20.:55:24.

and with the charities involved as well.

:55:25.:55:26.

?61 million shared between all the councils everywhere.

:55:27.:55:31.

That is new money going on top of what councils already are doing.

:55:32.:55:38.

This bill was put together as a private member's motion,

:55:39.:55:44.

it gathered the support of a number of charities, including

:55:45.:55:47.

some of those you've had on the programme,

:55:48.:55:49.

to try and help find an answer to doing something earlier.

:55:50.:55:51.

People feel it's a very positive move to try to deal

:55:52.:55:54.

Bedford has got one of the highest numbers of rough sleepers.

:55:55.:55:58.

Something is going very wrong on your doorstep.

:55:59.:56:00.

Homelessness is complex and rough sleeping is complex.

:56:01.:56:04.

It is caused by a whole series of factors, including some that

:56:05.:56:07.

They've often been through some difficult times, a crisis,

:56:08.:56:11.

sometimes they've been in institutions, sometimes

:56:12.:56:13.

The link with mental health is also incredibly important.

:56:14.:56:22.

And the fact it's predominantly male is also something that needs

:56:23.:56:25.

Kelvin Hopkins, we're talking about numbers in different places.

:56:26.:56:30.

Do you know what the official count of rough sleepers is in Luton?

:56:31.:56:34.

I forget now, but it's 79 or something like that.

:56:35.:56:37.

I think rough sleeping is only the tip of an iceberg.

:56:38.:56:43.

In Luton, we have 12,000 people on the waiting list.

:56:44.:56:50.

When I was a councillor in the 1970s, we built

:56:51.:56:52.

thousands of houses, we bought hundreds more

:56:53.:56:54.

houses, and we housed the complete waiting list.

:56:55.:56:57.

Not enough social housing, that's what it's all about?

:56:58.:57:00.

I think as people know the government is very

:57:01.:57:03.

There's a housing white paper coming out very soon.

:57:04.:57:09.

Everybody around our region has seen a lot of housing being built,

:57:10.:57:12.

Social housing was a problem for the last Labour government

:57:13.:57:15.

More money is being put in, more affordable homes need to be there,

:57:16.:57:20.

but it is a significant issue and everyone is aware of that.

:57:21.:57:24.

Together with the changes in the nature in the way people

:57:25.:57:31.

live, more people live single, more families are separated,

:57:32.:57:33.

competing pressures all round, it's a big issue and councils

:57:34.:57:35.

and government are doing the very best they can.

:57:36.:57:37.

Kevin Price, you must walk through the streets of Cambridge

:57:38.:57:40.

on a daily basis and you see these people that are vulnerable,

:57:41.:57:43.

Can you do anything to promise them that things will

:57:44.:57:46.

What we've recently set up in Cambridge is a charity called

:57:47.:57:54.

We are encouraging local people to donate money that they might

:57:55.:58:00.

otherwise give to people on the street.

:58:01.:58:05.

By all means, if somebody is hungry or thirsty,

:58:06.:58:07.

help them with that, but we feel that by directing money

:58:08.:58:10.

through this charity, homeless people can then apply

:58:11.:58:12.

More from both of you in just a moment.

:58:13.:58:32.

It's time now for our 60-second round up of the week.

:58:33.:58:34.

Demonstrations were held around the region to protest

:58:35.:58:42.

against President Trump and his new immigration policy.

:58:43.:58:46.

If you just lie down and pretend it's not happening,

:58:47.:58:48.

there's nothing to stop it growing and being extended both

:58:49.:58:51.

The Police and Crime Commissioners for Norfolk, Suffolk

:58:52.:58:57.

and Northamptonshire want to increase their share

:58:58.:58:59.

of council tax by 2% because the demands

:59:00.:59:01.

Modern crime is quite complex, whether it's cyber crime,

:59:02.:59:07.

We need to make sure we resource all of those accordingly.

:59:08.:59:20.

The Colchester MP's appealed for the mainline to London

:59:21.:59:22.

to be the first to get new digital signalling.

:59:23.:59:24.

The MP for Waveney wants all fuel receipts to tell us how

:59:25.:59:27.

Surely it is right that the nation's 37 million drivers should see

:59:28.:59:35.

the magnitude of the tax that they pay every time

:59:36.:59:37.

The little baby is welcome to come in.

:59:38.:59:41.

Norwich MP Chloe Smith brings her four-month-old son

:59:42.:59:43.

to Parliament to help her vote for Article 50.

:59:44.:59:53.

Let me just ask you about the idea of fuel receipts showing how much

:59:54.:00:02.

tax we are paying. Kelvin Hopkins, good idea? I like Peter very much

:00:03.:00:09.

but this isn't sensible. We have to pay tax on some things to get enough

:00:10.:00:14.

money to support the NHS, forces and everything else. If you show people

:00:15.:00:18.

how much tax they are paying, they will want to pay less. It's not

:00:19.:00:24.

sensible. Or they choose to get on their bikes! Motorists have long

:00:25.:00:32.

complained. When the price of petrol is discussed, nobody talks about

:00:33.:00:37.

tax. It helps people to know how much tax they are paying. People

:00:38.:00:42.

talk about hype of the cake to taxes, telling people how much of

:00:43.:00:47.

their tax bill goes to health or pensions. The more transparency the

:00:48.:00:51.

better, but I'm not sure I see this as a workable idea. We started with

:00:52.:00:56.

Article 50, there's going to be lots more discussion in Parliament. How

:00:57.:01:03.

messy is it going to get? Legislatively, I think it will be

:01:04.:01:07.

clear. The government will get Article 50 through. It will face a

:01:08.:01:11.

lot of pressure on amendments in the next few weeks from the lords and

:01:12.:01:14.

the Commons. The government has to be clear about its end result. I

:01:15.:01:19.

don't think it will be difficult. A lot of hot air and passion. We'll

:01:20.:01:25.

get very passionate. In the end it will be much more straightforward

:01:26.:01:28.

than people think. Thank you. That's all from us. You can keep

:01:29.:01:31.

programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of

:01:32.:01:34.

you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.

:01:35.:01:40.

Will the Government's plan to boost house-building

:01:41.:01:43.

Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for

:01:44.:01:47.

And what is President Trump going to do next?

:01:48.:01:51.

You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do

:01:52.:02:09.

you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical

:02:10.:02:14.

stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it

:02:15.:02:18.

will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing

:02:19.:02:23.

supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan

:02:24.:02:27.

of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by

:02:28.:02:31.

forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where

:02:32.:02:35.

they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have

:02:36.:02:39.

to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to

:02:40.:02:43.

beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market

:02:44.:02:46.

for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most

:02:47.:02:52.

defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited

:02:53.:02:58.

as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate

:02:59.:03:05.

Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime

:03:06.:03:09.

ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In

:03:10.:03:14.

2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.

:03:15.:03:17.

Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never

:03:18.:03:23.

happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,

:03:24.:03:26.

local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their

:03:27.:03:30.

seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally

:03:31.:03:34.

that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to

:03:35.:03:38.

overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may

:03:39.:03:42.

find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is

:03:43.:03:46.

the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and

:03:47.:03:51.

force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for

:03:52.:03:59.

Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory

:04:00.:04:06.

countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they

:04:07.:04:09.

have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to

:04:10.:04:13.

fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to

:04:14.:04:17.

built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the

:04:18.:04:21.

green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to

:04:22.:04:24.

do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato

:04:25.:04:31.

farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green

:04:32.:04:37.

belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I

:04:38.:04:41.

agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.

:04:42.:04:45.

In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an

:04:46.:04:49.

area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has

:04:50.:04:53.

always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why

:04:54.:04:58.

pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.

:04:59.:05:01.

They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of

:05:02.:05:09.

older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on

:05:10.:05:13.

anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There

:05:14.:05:19.

is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the

:05:20.:05:23.

system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in

:05:24.:05:27.

the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of

:05:28.:05:30.

the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast

:05:31.:05:34.

track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,

:05:35.:05:38.

it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases

:05:39.:05:46.

in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the

:05:47.:05:50.

three years to give the young families a certain stability over

:05:51.:05:55.

that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,

:05:56.:05:59.

if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets

:06:00.:06:03.

it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of

:06:04.:06:08.

their policy now. This is probably item number four of

:06:09.:06:12.

Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the

:06:13.:06:16.

last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in

:06:17.:06:21.

mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to

:06:22.:06:26.

be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have

:06:27.:06:30.

grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their

:06:31.:06:32.

grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a

:06:33.:06:39.

bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe

:06:40.:06:41.

that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million

:06:42.:06:48.

target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has

:06:49.:06:50.

happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only

:06:51.:06:55.

one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the

:06:56.:06:58.

willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said

:06:59.:07:04.

that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.

:07:05.:07:09.

How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal

:07:10.:07:16.

over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to

:07:17.:07:21.

vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find

:07:22.:07:26.

quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken

:07:27.:07:30.

seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave

:07:31.:07:36.

last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining

:07:37.:07:39.

Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned

:07:40.:07:42.

about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to

:07:43.:07:48.

vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice

:07:49.:07:51.

and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking

:07:52.:07:56.

amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of

:07:57.:08:00.

veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the

:08:01.:08:04.

vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the

:08:05.:08:08.

case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just

:08:09.:08:14.

go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed

:08:15.:08:17.

views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My

:08:18.:08:22.

understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal

:08:23.:08:29.

that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if

:08:30.:08:34.

Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean

:08:35.:08:38.

go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think

:08:39.:08:43.

again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of

:08:44.:08:49.

the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation

:08:50.:08:54.

begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock

:08:55.:08:57.

and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is

:08:58.:09:00.

particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for

:09:01.:09:05.

Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen

:09:06.:09:10.

next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the

:09:11.:09:13.

end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out

:09:14.:09:18.

on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the

:09:19.:09:21.

deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing

:09:22.:09:25.

out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a

:09:26.:09:32.

great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments

:09:33.:09:35.

on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal

:09:36.:09:39.

vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must

:09:40.:09:43.

remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if

:09:44.:09:47.

it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,

:09:48.:09:52.

one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting

:09:53.:09:57.

against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new

:09:58.:10:00.

parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge

:10:01.:10:07.

majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February

:10:08.:10:14.

recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for

:10:15.:10:22.

self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said

:10:23.:10:27.

this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you

:10:28.:10:30.

have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to

:10:31.:10:35.

the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for

:10:36.:10:39.

their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did

:10:40.:10:47.

you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth

:10:48.:10:51.

as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,

:10:52.:10:54.

saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,

:10:55.:10:58.

what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If

:10:59.:11:02.

you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they

:11:03.:11:06.

went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among

:11:07.:11:12.

American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was

:11:13.:11:16.

America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.

:11:17.:11:19.

As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.

:11:20.:11:23.

This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series

:11:24.:11:27.

on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure

:11:28.:11:30.

anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been

:11:31.:11:36.

talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is

:11:37.:11:41.

happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We

:11:42.:11:44.

are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of

:11:45.:11:47.

the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge

:11:48.:11:51.

who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge

:11:52.:11:58.

Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all

:11:59.:12:01.

these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be

:12:02.:12:06.

having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to

:12:07.:12:11.

cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless

:12:12.:12:15.

chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do

:12:16.:12:19.

that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as

:12:20.:12:24.

we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over

:12:25.:12:28.

there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election

:12:29.:12:35.

campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a

:12:36.:12:38.

daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be

:12:39.:12:42.

pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.

:12:43.:12:45.

Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the

:12:46.:12:50.

populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you

:12:51.:12:54.

are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the

:12:55.:12:57.

American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want

:12:58.:13:00.

their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating

:13:01.:13:05.

as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I

:13:06.:13:12.

have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976

:13:13.:13:14.

and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on

:13:15.:13:18.

America supporting the EU. That is a different world.

:13:19.:13:20.

Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with

:13:21.:13:24.

the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here

:13:25.:13:26.

Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:27.:14:05.

TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS

:14:06.:14:18.

so why not pay your TV licence in weekly instalments, too?

:14:19.:14:31.

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