07/05/2017 Sunday Politics London

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

With just a month to go until the general election,

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

But is there still really all to play for?

And tonight we will find out who is the next

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

on Mr Macron, considered the frontrunner.

In the capital, there were no elections but we are looking at the

potential impact in marginals next month. If Ukip support continues to

evaporate... And joining me for all of that,

three journalists ready to analyse the week's politics

with all the forensic focus of Diane Abbott

preparing for an interview, and all the relaxed,

slogan-free banter of Theresa May It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott

and Steve Richards. So, the Conservatives are promising,

if re-elected, to change mental health laws in England and Wales

to tackle discrimination, and they're promising 10,000 more

staff working in NHS mental health treatment in England by 2020 -

although how that's to be Here's Health Secretary

Jeremy Hunt speaking There is a lot of new

money going into it. In January, we said we were going

to put an extra ?1 billion Does this come from other parts

of the NHS, or is it No, it is new money

going into the NHS It's not just of course money,

it's having the people who deliver these jobs,

which is why we need Well, we're joined now from Norwich

by the Liberal Democrat health This weekend, they've launched

their own health announcement, promising a 1% rise on every income

tax band to fund the NHS. Do you welcome the Conservatives

putting mental health onto the campaign agenda in the way that they

have? I welcome it being on the campaign agenda but I do fear that

the announcement is built on thin air. You raised the issue at the

start about the 10,000 extra staff, and questions surrounding how it

would be paid for. There is no additional money on what they have

already announced for the NHS. We know it falls massively short on the

expectation of the funding gap which, by 2020, is likely to be

about 30 billion. That is not disputed now. Anyone outside of the

government, wherever you are on the political spectrum, knows the money

going in is simply not enough. So, rather like the claim that they

would add 5000 GPs to the workforce by 2020, that is not on target.

Latest figures show a fall in the number of GPs. They make these

claims, but I'm afraid they are without substance, unless they are

prepared to put money behind it. Your party's solution to the money

problem is to put a 1% percentage point on all of the bands of income

tax to raise more money 20-45. Is that unfair? Most pensioners who

consume 40% of NHS spending, but over 65s only pay about 20% of

income tax. Are you penalising the younger generations for the health

care of an older generation? It is the first step in what we are

describing as a 5-point recovery plan for the NHS and care system.

So, for what is available to us now, it seems to be the fairest way of

bringing in extra resources, income tax is progressive, and is based on

your ability to pay for your average British worker. It would be ?3 per

week which is the cost of less than two cups of coffee per week. In the

longer run, we say that by the end of the next Parliament, we would be

able to introduce a dedicated NHS and care tax. Based, probably,

around a reformed national insurance system, so it becomes a dedicated

NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the former permanent secretary of the

Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said clearly that this idea merits

further consideration which is the first time anyone for the Treasury

has bought into the idea of this. Let me ask you this. You say it is a

small amount of tax that people on average incomes will have to pay

extra. We are talking about people who have seen no real increases to

their income since 2007. They have been struggling to stand still in

terms of their own pay, but you are going to add to their tax, and as I

said earlier, most of the health care money will then go to

pensioners whose incomes have risen by 15%. I'm interested in the

fairness of this redistribution? Bearing in mind first of all,

Andrew, that the raising of the tax threshold that the Liberal Democrats

pushed through in the coalition increased the effective pay in your

pocket for basic rate taxpayers by about ?1000. We are talking about a

tiny fraction of that. I suppose that you do have to ask, all of us

in this country need to ask ourselves this question... Are we

prepared to pay, in terms of the average worker, about ?3 extra per

week to give us a guarantee that when our loved ones need that care,

in their hour of need, perhaps suspected cancer, that care will be

available for them? I have heard two cases recently brought my attention.

An elderly couple, the wife has a very bad hip. They could not allow

the weight to continue. She was told that she would need to wait 26

weeks, she was in acute pain. They then deduct paying ?20,000 for

private treatment to circumvent waiting time. They hated doing it,

because they did not want to jump the queue. But that is what is

increasingly happening. Sorry to interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make

very good points but we are short on time today. One final question, it

looks like you might have the chance to do any of this, I'm told the best

you can hope to do internally is to double the number of seats you have,

which would only take you to 18. Do you think that promising to raise

people's income tax, even those on average earnings, is a vote winner?

I think the people in this country are crying out for politicians to be

straight and tenet as it is. At the moment we heading towards a

Conservative landslide... -- tell it as it is. But do we want a 1-party

state? We are electing a government not only to deal with the crucial

Brexit negotiations, but oversee the stewardship of the NHS and funding

of our schools, all of these critical issues. We need an

effective opposition and with the Labour Party having taken itself off

stage, the Liberal Democrats need to provide an effective opposition.

Norman Lamb, thank you for joining us this morning. Thank you.

Labour and Tories are anxious to stress the general election

result is not a foregone conclusion, whatever the polls say.

Order you just heard Norman Lamb say there that he thought the

Conservatives were heading for a landslide...

But did Thursday's dramatic set of local election results

in England, Scotland and Wales give us a better idea of how the country

Here's Emma Vardy with a behind-the-scenes look at how

Good morning, it's seven o'clock on Friday, May 5th...

The dawn of another results day. Anticipation hung in the air.

Early results from the local elections in England suggest

there's been a substantial swing from Labour to the Conservatives.

While the pros did their thing, I needed breakfast.

Don't tell anyone, but I'm going to pinch a sausage.

The overnight counts had delivered successes for the Tories.

But with most councils only getting started,

there was plenty of action still to come.

It's not quite the night of Labour's nightmares.

There's enough mixed news in Wales, for example -

looks like they're about to hold Cardiff - that they'll try and put

But in really simple terms, four weeks from a general election,

the Tories are going forward and Labour are going backwards.

How does it compare being in here to doing the telly?

Huw, how do you prepare yourself for a long day of results, then?

We're not even on air yet, as you can see, and already

in Tory HQ this morning, there's a kind of, "Oh,

I'm scared this will make people think the election's just

I think leave it like that - perfect.

I want the Laura look. This is really good, isn't it?

Usually, we're in here for the Daily Politics.

But it's been transformed for the Election Results programme.

But hours went by without Ukip winning a single seat.

The joke going around Lincolnshire County Council today

from the Conservatives is that the Tories have eaten

We will rebrand and come back strong.

Morale, I think, is inevitably going to take a bit of a tumble.

Particularly if Theresa May starts backsliding on Brexit.

And then I think we will be totally reinvigorated.

There are a lot of good people in Ukip and I wouldn't

want to say anything unkind, but we all know it's over.

Ukip press officer. Difficult job.

Ukip weren't the only ones putting a brave face on it.

Labour were experiencing their own disaster day too,

losing hundreds of seats and seven councils.

If the result is what these results appear to indicate,

Can we have a quick word for the Sunday Politics?

A quick question for Sunday Politics - how are you feeling?

Downhearted or fired up for June? Fired up, absolutely fired up.

He's fired up. We're going to go out there...

We cannot go on with another five years of this.

How's it been for you today? Tiring.

It always is, but I love elections, I really enjoy them.

Yes, you know, obviously we're disappointed at some of the results,

it's been a mixed bag, but some opinion polls

and commentators predicted we'd be wiped out - we haven't.

As for the Lib Dems, not the resurgence they hoped for,

After a dead heat in Northumberland, the control of a whole council came

The section of England in which we had elections yesterday

was the section of England that was most likely to vote Leave.

When you go to sleep at night, do you just have election results

The answer is if that's still happening, I don't get to sleep.

There we go. Maybe practice some yoga...

Thank you very much but I have one here.

With the introduction of six regional mayors,

Labour's Andy Burnham became Mr Manchester.

But by the time Corbyn came to celebrate, the new mayor

We want you to stay for a second because I've got some

I used to present news, as you probably know.

I used to present BBC Breakfast in the morning.

The SNP had notable successes, ending 40 years of Labour

What did you prefer - presenting or politics?

And it certainly had been a hard day at the office for some.

Ukip's foothold in local government was all but wiped out,

leaving the Conservatives with their best local

So another election results day draws to a close.

But don't worry, we'll be doing it all again in five weeks' time.

For now, though, that's your lot. Off you go.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

which of course means those earning more than that could

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

won its best ever local government performance,

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that

time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's

fault. We have two become more professional than we have been

recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or

another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very

rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other

promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not

until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not

have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this

current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most

senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --

no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I

believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is

shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital

mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto

launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but

also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity

bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies

that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.

Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory

advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that

Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?

It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and

have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.

When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.

Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French

presidential election ahead of tonight's result.

First, though, the Sunday Politics where you are.

The capital has been a vote-free zone.

No elections here this week - but plenty to think about.

On the margins of the city in particular, after

Especially in Essex where Labour lost the little it had, and Ukip

Which is why we're pleased - to help us understand

what's next for the party - to have with us Peter Whittle,

its Deputy Leader and one of two members of the London Assembly.

And opposite him - reflecting on the potential impact

on himself and others from what we saw this week -

Jon Cruddas, Labour candidate for Dagenham and Rainham.

And for the Conservatives - from out west of London -

we have Kwasi Kwarteng, MP for Spelthorne.

John, let's start with you. Is there serious danger that London's long

dominance of the capital is under threat? There is, we need to see how

it plays out. With one month to go I think there will be a lot of variety

at local level, depending on incumbency, and issues around

planning. There will be a lot of tactical voting but a massive youth

registration in the city over the next month. It is easy to predict

cases over what happened in the next couple of but it will be a mixed

picture with all to play for. How do we get to this, in short, how did we

get to this in terms of your party? These things do not fall out of the

sky. They have been developing or festering over the last 12 years,

but they will play out in the next month. This is an election campaign

where people will focus on the next couple of weeks. The manifesto

process comes next week, I think. There is a lot to play for. People

will register and get involved, and young people will get involved, I

think. A lot of tactical voting at a local level. Let's not rule anything

out. But when you heard the defeated candidate in Birmingham, they talked

about not strongly representing enough key Labour issues, is that

how you felt? It's been a long-time argument of my net have detached

itself from its traditional working-class constituencies for a

long time but we will see how it plays out. It did not fall out of

the sky but I think that things will change over the next month and it's

everything to play for. Given local MPs in London and some of the

candidates, we have seen real resilience and a very strong ground

game. Peter, how can it not be over? It is far from over. If I had ?1 for

every time someone has got me on one of these shows and said, that is it

for Ukip, I would be very rich! But I am not. The thing is, what

happened this time, what was bad, the local election results were bad,

not putting a gloss on it in that way, but it was extremely unusual

circumstances for us. A lot of Ukip voters did go and vote for the

Tories. A lot of the Ukip voters are, if you like, country before

party. Nothing wrong with that, but what will happen is that we are only

halfway through this. We have been low before, and we will come back

when it becomes apparent that the Prime Minister is backsliding and

not really going for proper Brexit. People are not getting what they are

voting for. So will you not stand in a lot of the 73 London

constituencies? I don't think we are covered... How many are you

standing? I'm not certain of the number that we are covered all over

the country. There are only a few seats where there have been added

Brexit supporters... You will go for a majority of London seats, you have

no fear that your votes will not be wiped out? People have too have our

name on the ballot to vote. It is as simple as that. I've always been a

great believer in that, it is a few constituencies, nationally, where we

won't put someone up. The main point is, look, we still have 350

councillors. People think that we are wiped out across the country. We

have gone up in the opinion polls today. What is that about? Because

it directly relates to your seat and a number of others out there, if

Ukip implode again, and the votes disappears in one month, and goes to

the Conservatives as we saw across the country, you will lose a seat?

The Tories were confident on the day that they knocked me out, it was a

key marginal, Ukip thought they had won that seat... It's very likely in

my seat! The results of the last couple of days have shown in more

traditional working class seats, in Sandwell 's, or the Tees Valley,

there is more resilient Ukip then in the Cambridges or the Shires. It's

an interesting debate. Very interesting. How can you lose? I

agree with John in the sense that four weeks is a long time. A

volatile election, lots going on. The Prime Minister struck the right

note when she said she wasn't taking everything for granted, every vote

counts, and there is a huge contrast between the strong and stable

Theresa May that people are picking up on. And a completely chaotic

opposition. How can you lose? I think the way that we can lose is

being complacent, taking people for granted. What we are seeing from the

Ukip is a pretty desperate situation, where they lost, I think,

146 councillors, something like that? Gaining one. It is a real

problem. Just as we sit here now, and in terms of the locals and a

focus on Brexit, what are the policy winners? We have a good offer on a

lot of things, ridiculously on housing. We've got a plan to build

more houses. -- particularly on housing. We have a good policy on

economy and economic stability, getting a good Brexit deal. It's

like you've read our running order! I am particularly interested in

extending grammar schools, that's a really good policy... It's a good

idea. And we are going to push that. We have that particularly in London,

we will not deal with it today but London is a city of the rich and

poor. And in some places -

granted, fewer and fewer - Take the constituency

of Westminster North. It's a seat which could be

hit by the Ukip effect But it's also a good place to assess

the parties' record on, Westminster North might

have a claim to being the most Home to some of the richest

people in the whole world, Politically, too, it is

split down the middle. But one side has had

the upper hand... Now, this doesn't look an awful lot

like what most people would think of as a classic Labour constituency,

but for the last two decades that is what it has been -

home to the Labour MP Karen Buck. Conservatives, though,

have had their eyes on it. It has been a top Tory target in all

of the last general elections. This is the Labour

machine in action. At three o'clock on a

Thursday afternoon... So, you will be voting

Labour in June? They are hoping to upset

the Conservatives once again. They really expected to win

in 2010, and locally, they had their tails up

in 2015 as well. I can only put it down to hopefully

the work that I have A catalogue of casework

and a local reputation. Reflected in the leaflets

going through the doors... The thing that strikes me is it says

"Re-elect Karen Buck". As I have said to you,

as far as I am concerned, this campaign is 650 individual

elections, and we are going to be campaigning on that

basis in the local area. I am standing as the local MP

and I'm pinning on my record. But in this polarised seat,

the Conservative candidate, Lindsey Hall, is fighting an almost

opposite campaign, where she is keen to talk about Jeremy Corbyn

wherever possible. We have had a very strong local

incumbent, Karen Buck, for 28 years, and she is hard to tip out but I'm

going to do it this time! What is going to make

the difference this time? One of them is, of course, I am now

equally as well known as locally. I have served on Westminster

Council for ten years. Of course, we have

the Corbyn factor. That changes everything,

because at the end of the day, this election is a choice,

a clear choice, between Theresa May, strong and stable leadership,

or a coalition of chaos For anyone wondering who to vote

for, Karen Buck or Lindsey Hall, if you want Jeremy Corbyn -

vote for Karen Buck! The Liberal Democrats are also

standing in this heavily Remain constituency,

hoping their anti-Brexit We are the only party offering

a second referendum. We believe Brexit is a process that

began with democracy Ukip are not contesting the seat,

but the Green Party are. We asked for an interview

but she was not available. But, in this seat of great contrasts

and completely different campaigns, it is very difficult to predict

who will be the new MP Westminster by name, but in that

constituency, I think the wood used to be the poorest in the country.

Maybe 4-5 out east which are poorer. But when the Conservatives offer for

the huge cohort of people with very low incomes, poor living conditions

etc? The worst thing for people on low income is to have an unstable

and weak government. Lindsay Hawker did very well when she said it is a

stark contrast between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. -- Lindsay Hawker

did very well. In my constituency and John's constituency, Corbyn's

lack of leadership and his nonsensical proposition is brought

up again and again. What policies will counter Jeremy Corbyn, the

Labour policies which will be focused on helping the people who

are less well off? The government has a good record on this. Looking

at the personal allowance, when I came into Parliament in 2010, it was

something like ?6,000. We have almost doubled it to more than

?11,500 before you start paying tax, and that is a huge achievement to

take that many people on low incomes out of the tax bracket. That is

something we have done in government and we have a good record. I will

ask you about the Labour proposal, but first, John, there will be an

increase in income tax for people over ?80,000, and you welcome that?

I do. We will see the details on the manifesto comes out. You welcome the

principal? How much more would you be prepared...? I don't know... I

accept we are going to see... He is consulting people like you. I don't

know precisely the thresholds, but in principle I accept those who earn

a bit more should contribute more in terms of rebuilding public services.

I think we can win that argument if we make it in those terms. I saw

John MacDonald on TV this morning, he put on a very compelling case

about why we should ask people to contribute modestly more. Would

modest be a couple of pence? I don't know precisely. We are in a

preannouncement in terms of the manifesto, so we are a bit behind

the eight ball... I think he is setting out the principle which I

fully support. To accept it is a tax rise that would have a

disproportionate effect on London and could be damaging to your

support in parts of London, not least parts of that constituency

quite that it is very much a tale of two cities. It is people who are

struggling in terms of the cost of living, the housing costs,

exponentially rising all the time, the transport costs, so we need to

help those people by supporting them and not levying national insurance

or tax increases on those below ?80,000. Does that amount help you

get a house anywhere in central London? Very few people in my

constituency earning more than 80,000. It is proportionate, and I

think it will tap into a nerve over the next month. Peter, do you agree

that some of your supporters would like that policy? Not really, I

think it is the estate-macro way around. It is not addressing the

problem for Labour when it comes to housing. -- the wrong way around.

Let's understand the principle of taxation, would you put it up? This

is the sort of 1970s approach, where you start to tax in a way those who

are successful. London is increasingly a place where you can't

use examples, because you have this extraordinary kind of global class

of people who have no... We have clearly seen, there will be more put

on there, the Lib Dems are saying they would put a penny on for the

National Health Service, so we want to be clear from the Conservatives

about what they are prepared to do, to raise to put more on public

services? I am sure you will see plenty in our manifesto... VAT has

been ruled out. Income tax? Would you be prepared to see it go up? We

are not about raising taxes as a party. The Labour approach, they are

going back to the 1970s approach. 1992, I wasn't old enough to vote

but I remember Labour had a similar policy. They said people earning

over ?40,000 would have to pay more tax and that was a disaster for

them. How will you give the schools the money they need, and the

hospitals? It was a disaster for them in the context of London and

the south-east, and it is important to get that across. I'm going to

Ealing Central this afternoon. Many people in marginals will be

surprised and upset to hear that Labour thinks people on ?80,000 in

the capital are super-rich, because they are not. I don't think people

will see it that way. It is an argument we are prepared to have,

those over ?80,000 with a modest... It is a reworking of the policy in

1992. ?40,000 is very different to ?80,000. The service desperately

need more money. It is the politics of envy, in a way. Moving on to

housing, has something fundamental shifted in the housing debate?

So remote has the prospect of owning a home become

for so many in the capital, the political narrative has altered.

And even the Conservatives - the party of property,

the mother of Right To Buy - are having to change their tune.

For decades, owning your own home was a political sacred cow.

Its appeal cemented with the Thatcher government's

Mr and Mrs Barker applied to buy their house...

But when the government launched their housing

White Paper earlier this year, they did it while admitting

At the same time, figures were released that showed

for the first time in decades, the number of private renters

outstripped the number of mortgage holders in London.

What we are seeing from political parties is a concerted

effort to court renters as much as homeowners.

Renters need to be taken seriously, especially in London.

Homeowners are a minority now in the capital because an affordable

Homeowners are a minority now in the capital because unaffordable

house prices mean that so many people are renting.

They desperately need politicians from all parties to offer them

some meaningful change going into the election.

More than twice as much council housing being built...

I want a Labour government that builds council housing!

Party manifestos are yet to be finalised,

but the Conservatives are likely to stick with the key planks

of the housing White Paper, which pledges a quarter of a million

homes built each year, a lifetime ISA for first-time buyers,

a ban on letting agent fees, and a clampdown on rogue landlords.

Last year, 30,000 homes were built in London.

That is half the rate that we need to build at.

They are beginning to suggest that there is a bigger role

for the rented sector, and that there is more to be done

Whether it is ambitious enough for the target, I think one has

Meanwhile, Labour are offering a similar pledge

But they also say that half of them will be council houses.

They have promised a dedicated housing ministry,

and want to introduce a landlord licensing scheme.

I don't think we will ever see London totally turning

What we got from the Labour Party is quite a few headline figures so far.

It is unfair to say that is all we are going to get,

we still have a manifesto, but it is quite an easy

"We will build this many homes and half of them

Without saying how you are going to pay for it,

I asked the main parties for their take on housing.

When you are trying to save up to buy, for these ludicrously

expensive houses, you cannot pay out more than half your salary in rent.

We should not build on the green belt, we should build

on brownfield sites, when we are going

There is enough brownfield land around to build

The Lib Dems have pledged to build 300,000 homes

But also, we've got to tackle the private rented sector.

One in four Londoners rent privately.

# Our house in the middle of our street...#.

So, your house, whether you own or rent it,

is likely to have a policy, perhaps with a politician attached,

Peter, alone among the main parties, you don't believe it's a question of

numbers or building any more? No, we have we reached a low in

house-building, no one would doubt that. We believe strongly in council

housing, we want to see a golden age of council housing. It is one of the

only ways forward. But what I would say is, when I went through a

campaign last year, and now the general election campaign, no one

will really talk about the elephant in the room. Like we saw in the

film, even if you build 60,000 new homes every year in London, it would

never be enough to deal with the sheer volume of people coming in. To

say you would only talk about supply and not demand is crazy. But that is

what we are doing. Is that the problem with the housing crisis, too

many people coming from elsewhere? It's an issue, and I don't think it

is raised often enough. Clearly demand is a huge factor in terms of

driving up house prices. Do we expect things to get better after

Brexit? I hope we have more control of the numbers, absolutely. I stood

twice on a manifesto which pledged tens of thousands, and I hope to get

that back... Which will have no effect on the housing? -- a knock-on

effect? I think it's reasonable to suggest that a factor driving up

house prices is demand, people coming into the country. That seems

obvious. It is treated as though it is insane, but the fact is London's

population is going up by 1 million per decade. To say that has nothing

to do with it... The pressure coming from people coming from elsewhere is

a key issue. Obviously. Surging into the city, it places pressure on the

big services including houses, that is self evident. There is a number

of different elements. In south Havering, my constituency, the Tory

council are planning to build 30,000 houses and concrete over... Try to

keep it broad. What do you anticipate about providing more

council housing? Will you allow local authorities and councils to

borrow? It looks like it, yes. As I say, we are yet to see the

manifesto, but if you are saying 1 million homes in five years, half of

which will be council housing is, that has huge implications. The

implication for the balance sheet...? I have been involved in

Labour Party policy for a long time and that was always the elephant in

the room. In government and out, we were never fully prepared to grasp

it, but it looks like we will now, and I welcome that. And that is

sensible, because you are borrowing for investment. You can't argue for

that, Mrs Thatcher did, but new times? If we don't have the money,

you have to find it through raising taxes, which you are prepared to do

on fat cats as you describe them, anyone over ?80,000, and you will

have to borrow considerable money. This is where Labour gets into the

familiar problems. They have unfunded tax spending plans and they

never get the money... I am told not one social house, social housing,

typically old council house, last year. Is that where you want to be?

I hate to play not devil's advocate but to suggest that the Labour

government between 97-2010, that was the lowest form of social housing

investment, the lowest form of housing start-ups that we had ever

seen. That is part of the problem we have now, we are playing catch-up.

The government acknowledge is that, and that is why we say we have to

build 250,000 new homes per year to catch up from the deficit left by

Labour. We could get into definitions with council housing,

housing associations and investment, but we have run out of time, thank

you. Andrew. Four weeks to go until polling day

on the 8th of June, what will the party strategies be for the

remaining four weeks? Let's begin with the Conservatives. Do they just

try to continue to play it safe for four weeks? Yes, with this important

qualification. Theresa May Corp this election to get her own personal

mandate partly, partly because she thought she would win big but to get

her own personal mandate. Therefore, she needs to define it. In her own

interests and to do with accountability to the country. So

clearly, they will not take risks when they are so far ahead in the

polls. What they do say in the manifesto matters in

terms of the space that she has in the coming years to define her

leadership against David Cameron 's. She is a free figure, partly on the

basis of what she says as to how big she wins. They cannot just play it

safe and repeat their mantra of strong and stable leadership, if she

is going to claim her own mandate, they need the top policy? Yes, and

what is unusual about this is that the manifesto matters far more

because of what they need to do with it afterwards, than in terms of

whether it is going to win anybody over now. Clearly, the strategy is

yes, we do have two layout out a few things, there are interesting

debates as to whether, for example, they will still commit to this

ambition of reducing immigration to the tens of thousands, we do not

know the answer yet. It is a question on whether she is setting

herself up for difficulties later on. It will be a short manifesto, I

would venture to guess? It is in her interests to be as noncommittal as

possible, that argues for a short manifesto but what does strike me

about the Conservative campaign, aside from the ambiguity on policy,

is how personal it is. I think Theresa May, in her most recent

speech, referred to "My local candidates", rather than

Parliamentary candidates, very much framing it as a presidential

candidate in France or the USA. Not a rational on her part. Everything I

hear from the MPs on the ground and the focus groups being done by the

parties, is that a big chunk of the population personally identify with

her. If you can wrap up Middle England into a physical object and

embody it in a person, it would be her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's

unpopularity accounts for a big slice of her popularity, she has

done a good job of bonding with the public. We never saw that coming!

But you may well be right. That is happening now. Labour say it wants

the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell to play a more prominent role in the

Labour campaign, he was on The Andrew Marr Show this morning and he

was asked if he was a Marxist, he denied that he was. It surprised me

as I had seen tape from before saying that he was proud of it.

Let's look now and then. Are you a Marxist? I believe that there is a

lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe that there is a lot to learn from

reading capital, that is recommended not only by me but measuring

economists as well. I also believe that in the long tradition of the

Labour Party... We need to demand systemic change. I am a Marxist.

This is a classic crisis of the economy. A capitalist crisis. I've

been waiting for this for a generation! That was from about four

years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist, yes, I am a Marxist... I've been

waiting for the Marxist revolution my whole life... Does this kind of

thing matter? Yes, but in fairness, I think he is a really good

interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have untested figures in a national

campaign. None have ever been exposed at any level to a national

media campaign that they are about to experience. He is the best

interviewee. In fairness to him, when he gave that clip four years

ago, I bet he never dream that he would be in a senior front bench

position. But the background is clear. They are of the left, and I

think they would all have described it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done,

he is close to being like Tony Benn. There are about four Labour campaign

is being fought in this election. Their campaign, the old Shadow

Cabinet, campaigning in constituencies, but not identifying

with that campaign. There is the former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is

it damaging? I think so, if they could be damaged any further, I

could see all of the Labour MPs with their heads in their hands. What I

am hearing from Labour MPs is that there is not one of them who do not

feel that they have a horrendous battle on their hands. These will be

very individual local campaigns, where local MPs are winning despite

the party leadership and not because of it. Already, talk is turning to

what happens next. Is there anyway that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a

horrendous set of general election results as many anticipate, may stay

on all the same? It is not clear that even if the polls are right,

that Mr Corbyn will go? John McDonnell implied it might not be

the case but previously, he said it would be. What do you make of

reports that the Labour strategy is not, I cannot quite believe I am

saying this, not to win seats but maximise a share of the vote. If

they do better than Ed Miliband with 30.5% of the vote, they believe they

live to fight another day? Yes, it reminded me of Tony Benn's speech

after the 1983 election where they said as bad as the Parliamentary

defeat was there were 8 million votes for socialism. A big section

of public opinion voted for that manifesto. I wonder whether that is

Corbyn's supporters best chance of holding onto power. Whether they can

say that those votes are a platform on which we can build. That said,

even moderate Labour MPs and desperate for a quick leadership

contest. I hear a lot of them say that they would like to leave it for

one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as an acting Labour leader. He would

still have a mandate. Give the top party a chance to regroup and get

rid of some of its problems and decide where it stands on policy.

Most importantly, for potential candidates to show what they are

made of, rather than lurching straight into an Yvette Cooper

Coronation. 30 seconds on the Liberal Democrats, their strategy

was to mop up the Remain vote. Uncertain about the Brexit party in

demise. Ukip. The remain as have a dilemma, the little Democrats are

not a strong enough vessel with 89 MPs to risk all ongoing for them --

the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not know where they stand on Brexit.

There is not a robust alternative vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit

Conservative Party. At the moment. Four weeks to go, but not for

France... France has been voting since early

this morning, and we should get a first estimate of who will be

the country's next President Just to warn you there are some

flashing images coming up. The choice in France

is between a centre-left liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron

and a right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen - both have been

casting their votes this morning. The two candidates topped

a field of 11 presidential hopefuls in the first

round of elections last month. The campaign has been marked

by its unpredictability, and in a final twist on Friday

evening, just before campaigning officially ended,

Mr Macron's En Marche! group said it had been the victim

of a "massive" hack, with a trove of documents

released online. The Macron team said real documents

were mixed up with fake ones, and electoral authorities warned

media and the public that spreading details of the leaks would breach

strict election rules. I'm joined now from

Paris by the journalist As I left Paris recently, everybody

told me that there was the consensus that Mr Macron would win, and win

pretty comfortable you. Is there any reason to doubt that? -- pretty

comfortably. I don't think so, there have been so many people left and

right, former candidates who have decided that it was more important

to vote for Macron, even if it was agreed with him, then run the risk

of having Marine Le Pen as president. I think the spread is now

20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le Pen. So outside of the margin of

error that it would take something huge for this to be observed. If the

polls are right and Mr Macron wins, he has to put together a government,

and in May there is a Coronation, then he faces parliamentary

elections in June and could face a fractured parliament where he does

not have a clear majority for his reforms. He could then faced

difficulties in getting his programme through? I think that

right now, with how things are looking, considering you have one

half of the Republican party, the Conservative Party, they are making

clear sides, not only that they want to support Macron but are supporting

him actively. It means looking at the equivalent of the German party,

the great coalition. Depending on how many seats established parties

keep in the house committee may very well have a Republican Prime

Minister, rather than having an adversarial MP, he may have someone

who is relatively unknown outside of France, and a young woman. Contended

that lost the Parez mayorship three years ago. She is a scientist and

has been secretary of state. She would be an interesting coalition

Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le Pen, if she goes down to defeat a

night, does she have the stomach and ambition, and the energy, to try it

all again in 2022? She has all of that. The question is, would they

let her? How badly would she lose? Her niece, now 27, a hard-working

and steady person, unlike Marine Le Pen, who flunked her do paid --

debate, her niece may decide that 2022 is her turn. Yet another Le

Pen! All right, we will see. Just five years to wait, but only a few

hours until the results of the election tonight.

And we will get the exit polls here on the BBC. Given the exit polls

will give as a pretty fair indication of what the result is

going to be tonight. That will be on BBC news. That's all for today.

The Daily Politics will cover every turn of this election campaign,

And we're back here on BBC One at our usual time Next Sunday.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.