14/05/2017 Sunday Politics London


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14/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Tim Donovan are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:41.:00:44.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:45.:00:47.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:48.:00:54.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:55.:00:56.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:57.:01:00.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:01:01.:01:02.

We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.

:01:03.:01:13.

We look at the Green electoral offer and here, what the parties are

:01:14.:01:18.

saying about tackling the air pollution problem in London.

:01:19.:01:26.

And with me, our own scientifically selected focus group

:01:27.:01:29.

of political pundits - they're not so much

:01:30.:01:31.

undecided as clueless - Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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So, we've got two new policies this morning.

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Labour say they will introduce a financial transaction tax

:01:44.:01:45.

if they win the general election and what they're calling

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"the biggest crackdown on tax avoidance in the country's history".

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The Conservatives say they'll work with local authorities in England

:01:51.:01:52.

to build council houses with the right to buy.

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Theresa May says the policy "will help thousands of people

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get on the first rung of the housing ladder".

:01:58.:02:04.

Steve, what do you make of them? I have been conditioned after doing

:02:05.:02:12.

tax and spend debates in pre-election periods for many

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decades to treat policy is not as literal but as arguments. In other

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words if you look back to 2015 the Tory plan to wipe out the deficit

:02:22.:02:25.

was never going to happen and yet it framed and large event. In that

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sense the Robin Hood tax is a sensible move for Labour to make at

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this point because it is part of a narrative of reconfiguring taxation

:02:34.:02:38.

to be fair. Treating it as an argument rather than something that

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would happen in day one of Labour government is sensible. In terms of

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building houses Theresa May said right from the beginning when she

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was in Number Ten that there is a housing deficit in this country

:02:51.:02:53.

rather than the economic deficit George Osborne was focusing on, and

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this is an example of trying to get house-building going. It seems

:03:00.:03:02.

entirely sensible, not sure how it works with right to buy but again as

:03:03.:03:06.

framing of a 90 minute it makes sense. I disagree with Steve on one

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front which is how sensible Theresa May's policy is on the housing

:03:16.:03:20.

announcement. I think more broadly these two announcements have

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something in common which is that over the next 24 hours both will

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probably unravel in different ways. Ye of little faith! The Mayor of

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London has already said he doesn't agree with this, and when people see

:03:34.:03:37.

the actual impact of what looks like a populist tax will very potentially

:03:38.:03:44.

affect people's pensions, it might become a lot less popular. On the

:03:45.:03:48.

Tory housing plans, I think it is difficult to imagine how they are

:03:49.:03:53.

going to implement this huge, what looks like a huge land and property

:03:54.:03:59.

grab. Through compulsory purchase orders, which are not a simple

:04:00.:04:03.

instrument. They say they will change the law but really the idea

:04:04.:04:07.

of paying people below the market value for their assets is not

:04:08.:04:11.

something I can see sitting easily with Tory backbenchers or the Tories

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in the House of Lords. Tom. Both would appear superficially to be

:04:19.:04:22.

appealing to traditional left and traditional right bases. What is

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more Tory than right to buy, then councils sell on these houses, and

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Labour slapping a massive tax on the city. The Tories' plan, I would say

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look a bit deeper and all of the Tory narrative from the last six

:04:42.:04:45.

years which hasn't worked well is talking about the private sector

:04:46.:04:49.

increasing supply in the market. Now Mrs May is talking about the role

:04:50.:04:55.

for the state after all so this is the shift creeping in. On the Labour

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transaction tax, one of the most interesting things I heard in days

:05:01.:05:07.

was from Paul Mason, former BBC correspondent, now a cog in Easter

:05:08.:05:11.

extreme. On Newsnight he said don't worry about whether the Labour

:05:12.:05:16.

manifesto will add up, I'm promising it will, the bigger Tory attack line

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should be what on earth will be the macroeconomic effect of taking so

:05:20.:05:28.

much tax out of the system. Very well, we shall see. At least we have

:05:29.:05:30.

some policies to talk about. Now, on Tuesday Labour

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will launch its manifesto. But we've already got a pretty good

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idea of what's in it - that's because most of its contents

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were leaked to the media Labour has a variety of spending

:05:38.:05:40.

pledges including an extra ?6 billion a year for the NHS,

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an additional ?8 billion for social care over the lifetime

:05:50.:05:52.

of the next parliament, as well as a ?250 billion

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in infrastructure over The party will support the renewal

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of the Trident submarine system, although any Prime Minister should

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be extremely cautious about its use, and the party

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will hold a strategic defence and security review immediately

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after the election. In terms of immigration,

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Labour will seek "reasonable management of migration",

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but it will not make "false Elsewhere, university tuition

:06:14.:06:15.

fees will be abolished, and the public sector pay cap,

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which limits pay rises for public sector workers

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to 1%, will be scrapped. The party also aims to renationalise

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the railways, the Royal Mail and the National Grid,

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as well as creating at least one A senior Labour backbencher

:06:31.:06:37.

described it to the Sunday Politics as a manifesto for a leadership

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who don't "give a toss about the wider public",

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and several other Labour candidates told us they thought it

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had been deliberately leaked by the leadership,

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with one suggesting the leak was intended to "bounce

:06:50.:06:53.

the National Executive" And we're joined now from Salford

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by the Shadow Business Secretary, Welcome to the programme. The draft

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manifesto proposed to renationalise the number of industry. You will

:07:06.:07:10.

wait for the franchises to run out rather than buy them out at the

:07:11.:07:14.

moment so can you confirm the railways will not be wholly

:07:15.:07:19.

nationalised until 2030, after three Labour governments, and Jeremy

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Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to comment on leaks, you will just have

:07:26.:07:29.

to be patient and wait to see what is in our manifesto. But you have

:07:30.:07:35.

already announced you will nationalise the railways, so tell me

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about it. We have discussed taking the franchises into public ownership

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as they expire, however the detail will be set out in the manifesto so

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I'm not prepared to go into detail until that policy is formally laid

:07:50.:07:54.

out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound very hopeful but let's carry on. You

:07:55.:07:59.

will also nationalise the National Grid, it has a market capitalisation

:08:00.:08:05.

of ?40 billion, why do you want to nationalise that? Again, I'm not

:08:06.:08:09.

going to speculate on leaks, you will just have to be patient. But

:08:10.:08:13.

you said you will nationalise the National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks

:08:14.:08:20.

have suggested but you will just have to wait and see what the final

:08:21.:08:25.

manifesto states on that one. So is it a waste of time me asking you how

:08:26.:08:30.

you will pay for something that costs 40 billion? Be patient, just

:08:31.:08:35.

couple of days to go, but what I would say is there is growing

:08:36.:08:40.

pressure from the public to reform the utilities sector. The

:08:41.:08:44.

Competition and Markets Authority stated in 2015 that bill payers were

:08:45.:08:49.

paying over till debt -- ?2 billion in excess of what they should be

:08:50.:08:52.

paying so there is a clear need for reform. The bills we get are from

:08:53.:08:59.

the energy companies, you are not going to nationalise them, you are

:09:00.:09:01.

going to nationalise the distribution company and I wondered

:09:02.:09:07.

what is the case for nationalising the distribution company? As I said,

:09:08.:09:11.

our full plans will be set out on Tuesday. In relation to the big six

:09:12.:09:16.

energy companies, we know in recent years they have been overcharging

:09:17.:09:23.

customers... There's no point in answering questions I am not asking.

:09:24.:09:27.

I am asking what is the case for nationalising the National Grid?

:09:28.:09:32.

There is a case for reforming the energy sector as a whole and that

:09:33.:09:36.

looks at the activities of the big six companies and it will look at

:09:37.:09:40.

other aspects too. You will have to be patient and wait until Tuesday.

:09:41.:09:46.

What about the Royal Mail? Again, you will have to wait until Tuesday.

:09:47.:09:53.

Why can't you just be honest with the British voter? We know you are

:09:54.:09:57.

going to do this and you have a duty to explain. I'm not even arguing

:09:58.:10:05.

whether it is right or wrong. The Royal Mail was sold off and we know

:10:06.:10:09.

it was sold under value and British taxpayers have a reason to feel

:10:10.:10:14.

aggrieved about that. There is a long-term strategy that would ensure

:10:15.:10:17.

the Royal Mail was classified as a key piece of infrastructure but the

:10:18.:10:21.

details of that will be set out in our manifesto because we want to

:10:22.:10:26.

ensure businesses and households ensure the best quality of service

:10:27.:10:28.

when it comes to their postal providers. You plan to borrow an

:10:29.:10:36.

extra 25 billion per year, John McDonnell has already announced

:10:37.:10:40.

this, on public investment, on top of the around 50 billion already

:10:41.:10:44.

being planned for investment. You will borrow it all so that means, if

:10:45.:10:48.

you can confirm, that many years after the crash by 2021, Labour

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government would still be borrowing 75 billion a year. Is that correct?

:10:59.:11:05.

We have set out ?250 billion of capital investment, and ?250 billion

:11:06.:11:10.

for a national investment bank. Our financial and fiscal rules dictate

:11:11.:11:14.

we will leave the Government in a state of less debt than we found it

:11:15.:11:17.

at the start of the parliament so we won't increase the national debt at

:11:18.:11:24.

the end of our Parliamentary term. How can you do that if by 2021 you

:11:25.:11:28.

will still be borrowing around 75 billion a year, which is more than

:11:29.:11:34.

we borrow at the moment? The 500 billion figure is set out over a

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period of ten years, it's a figure that has been suggested by Peter

:11:39.:11:41.

Helm from Oxford University as a figure that is necessary to bring us

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in line with other industrial competitors. Similar figures have

:11:48.:11:52.

been suggested by groups such as the CBI. By the way I have not included

:11:53.:11:59.

all 500 billion, just the 250 billion on public spending, not the

:12:00.:12:03.

extra money. You talk about the fiscal rules. The draft manifesto

:12:04.:12:07.

said you will leave debt as a proportion of trend GDP law at the

:12:08.:12:11.

end of each parliament, you have just said a version of that. What is

:12:12.:12:18.

trend GDP? In clear terms we will ensure the debt we acquire will be

:12:19.:12:22.

reduced by the end of the parliament. We won't leave the

:12:23.:12:26.

Government finances in a worse state than we found them. OK, but what is

:12:27.:12:35.

trend GDP? Our rule is we will ensure public sector net debt is

:12:36.:12:39.

less than we found it when we came to power in Government on June the

:12:40.:12:44.

8th. But that is not what your draft manifesto says. I'm not going to

:12:45.:12:50.

comment on leaks, you are just going to have to wait until Tuesday to

:12:51.:12:54.

look at the fine detail and perhaps we will have another chat then. You

:12:55.:12:59.

have published your plans for corporation tax and you will

:13:00.:13:03.

increase it by a third and your predictions assumed that will get an

:13:04.:13:07.

extra 20 billion a year by the end of the parliament. But that assumes

:13:08.:13:13.

the companies don't change their behaviour, that they move money

:13:14.:13:17.

around, they leave the country or they generate smaller profits. Is

:13:18.:13:22.

that realistic? You are right to make that point and you will see

:13:23.:13:26.

when we set out our policies and costings in the manifesto that we

:13:27.:13:30.

haven't spent all of the tax take. We have allowed for different

:13:31.:13:35.

differentials and potential changes in market activity because that

:13:36.:13:39.

would be approved and direction to take. But corporation tax is allowed

:13:40.:13:46.

to be cut in France and the United States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin.

:13:47.:13:51.

Many companies based in Britain are already wondering whether they

:13:52.:13:54.

should relocate because of Brexit, if you increase this tax by a third

:13:55.:13:59.

couldn't that clinch it for a number of them? No, we will still be one of

:14:00.:14:04.

the lowest corporation tax rate in the G7. Let's look at what's

:14:05.:14:09.

important for business. Cutting corporation tax in itself doesn't

:14:10.:14:13.

improve productivity, or business investment and there's no suggestion

:14:14.:14:18.

cutting corporation tax in recent years has achieved that. Businesses

:14:19.:14:23.

need an investment in tools in things they need to thrive and

:14:24.:14:27.

prosper, they also need to reduce the burden at the lower end of the

:14:28.:14:32.

tax scale, before we get to the Prophet stage. One key example is

:14:33.:14:36.

business rates. We have made the proposal to government to in --

:14:37.:14:43.

exclude machinery so businesses can invest and grow operations in the

:14:44.:14:45.

future but the Government refused. Corporation tax has been cut since

:14:46.:14:59.

2010. When it was 28% it brought in ?43 billion a year. Now it is down

:15:00.:15:06.

to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a year. By cutting it in the last

:15:07.:15:12.

year, it brought in 21% more, so what is the problem? It might have

:15:13.:15:18.

brought in more money, but has it increased business investment in the

:15:19.:15:22.

long term. It is not just about cutting corporation tax, but it is

:15:23.:15:28.

on the ability of businesses to thrive and prosper. Business

:15:29.:15:33.

investment in the UK is below are industrial competitors. Wages are

:15:34.:15:38.

stagnating which doesn't indicate businesses are not doing well. Let

:15:39.:15:43.

me get it right, you are arguing if we increase business tax by a third,

:15:44.:15:50.

that will increase investment? I am not saying that. You just did. Know

:15:51.:15:58.

I didn't, I said reducing business tax isn't enough, you have to invest

:15:59.:16:03.

in the things businesses need to thrive and prosper. You have also

:16:04.:16:07.

got to lessen the burden on business. You have announced a

:16:08.:16:17.

financial transaction tax. Your own labour Mayor of London said he has

:16:18.:16:23.

vowed to fight it. He said I do not want a unilateral tax on business in

:16:24.:16:27.

our city, so why are you proceeding with it? This isn't a new

:16:28.:16:32.

initiative, there is a growing global pressure to make sure we have

:16:33.:16:37.

fairness in the financial sector. Ordinary British people are paying

:16:38.:16:40.

for our banking crisis they didn't cause. Another important point,

:16:41.:16:47.

stamp duty reserve tax was brought in in the 1600 and there have been

:16:48.:16:51.

little reforms. The sector has changed and we have do provide

:16:52.:16:55.

changes to the system for that change. High-frequency trading where

:16:56.:17:01.

we have a state of affairs where a lot of shares are traded on

:17:02.:17:05.

computers within milliseconds. We need a tax system that keeps up with

:17:06.:17:11.

that. What happens if they move the computers to another country? Emily

:17:12.:17:17.

Thornaby said this morning, other countries had already introduced a

:17:18.:17:21.

financial transaction tax, what other countries have done that?

:17:22.:17:28.

There are ten countries looking at introducing a transaction tax. Which

:17:29.:17:36.

ones have done it so far? They will be later announcing a final package,

:17:37.:17:41.

going through the finer detail at the moment. But the European

:17:42.:17:44.

Commission tried to get this done in 2011 and it still hasn't happened in

:17:45.:17:49.

any of these countries. But you are going to go ahead unilaterally and

:17:50.:17:53.

risk these businesses, which generate a lot of money, moving to

:17:54.:17:58.

other jurisdictions. There is not a significant risk of that happening.

:17:59.:18:05.

The stamp duty reserve tax is levied at either where the person or

:18:06.:18:14.

company is domiciled or where the instrument is issued rather than

:18:15.:18:19.

worth the transaction takes place. This tax in itself is not enough to

:18:20.:18:23.

make people leave this country in terms of financial services because

:18:24.:18:26.

there is more to keep these businesses here in terms of the

:18:27.:18:31.

investment we are making, the economy that Labour will build, in

:18:32.:18:35.

terms of productivity improvement we will see. Thank you very much,

:18:36.:18:37.

Rebecca Long-Bailey. And listening to that was the Home

:18:38.:18:42.

Office Minister, Brandon Lewis. Over the years, you have got

:18:43.:18:53.

corporation tax by 20%, it is lower than international standards, so why

:18:54.:18:57.

are so many global companies who make money out of Great Britain,

:18:58.:19:03.

still not paying 20%? It is one of the problems with the point Labour

:19:04.:19:07.

were making and Rebecca could not answer, these companies can move

:19:08.:19:12.

around the world. One of the important things is having a low tax

:19:13.:19:16.

economy but these businesses, it encourages them to come at a rate

:19:17.:19:21.

they are prepared to pay. People may say they are right, if they were

:19:22.:19:28.

paying 19, 20% incorporation tax. But they are not. Google runs a

:19:29.:19:34.

multi-million pound corporation and did not pay anywhere near 20%. There

:19:35.:19:40.

are companies that are trading internationally and that is why we

:19:41.:19:44.

have to get this work done with our partners around the world. Has there

:19:45.:19:53.

been an improvement? It is more than they were paying before. Whether it

:19:54.:19:56.

is Google or any other company, alongside them being here, apart

:19:57.:20:02.

from the tax they pay, it is the people they employ. The deal was, if

:20:03.:20:07.

you cut the business tax, the corporation tax on profits, we would

:20:08.:20:10.

get more companies coming here and more companies paying their tax. It

:20:11.:20:16.

seems it doesn't matter how low, a number of companies just pay a

:20:17.:20:19.

derisory amount and you haven't been able to change that. As you

:20:20.:20:26.

outlined, the income taken from the changing corporation tax has gone

:20:27.:20:33.

up. That is from established British companies, not from these

:20:34.:20:36.

international companies. It is because more companies are coming

:20:37.:20:39.

here and paying tax. That is a good thing. There is always more to do

:20:40.:20:44.

and that is why we want to crack down. In the last few weeks in the

:20:45.:20:49.

Finnish Parliament, Labour refused to put to another ?8.7 billion of

:20:50.:20:54.

tax take we could have got by cracking down further. You claim to

:20:55.:21:00.

have made great progress on cracking down on people and companies to pay

:21:01.:21:06.

the tax they should. But the tax gap is the difference between what HMRC

:21:07.:21:11.

takes in and what it should take in. It has barely moved in five years,

:21:12.:21:18.

so where is the progress? He have brought in 150 billion more where we

:21:19.:21:22.

have cracked down on those tax schemes. The gap is still the same

:21:23.:21:29.

as it was five years ago. It's gone from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down.

:21:30.:21:35.

The Prime Minister and the Chancellor said they want to

:21:36.:21:38.

continue work on to get more money on these companies while still

:21:39.:21:41.

having a competitive rate to encourage these companies. While big

:21:42.:21:51.

business and the wealthy continue to prosper, the Office for Budget

:21:52.:21:53.

Responsibility tell us those on average earnings in this country

:21:54.:21:58.

will be earning less in real terms by 2021 than they did in 2008. How

:21:59.:22:04.

can that be fair? I don't see it that way. I haven't seen the figures

:22:05.:22:10.

you have got. What I can say to you, Andrew, we have made sure the

:22:11.:22:13.

minimum wage has gone up, the actual income tax people pay has gone down.

:22:14.:22:18.

So in their pocket, real terms, people have more money. You are the

:22:19.:22:27.

self-styled party of work. We keep emphasising work. Under your

:22:28.:22:30.

government you can work for 13 years and still not earn any more at the

:22:31.:22:35.

end of it, and you did at the start. Where is the reward for effort in

:22:36.:22:41.

that? I have not seen those figures. There are 2.8 million more people,

:22:42.:22:47.

more jobs in economy than there was. 1000 jobs every day and people are

:22:48.:22:52.

working and developing through their careers. This is what I thought was

:22:53.:22:56.

odd in what Rebecca was saying, investing in people is what the

:22:57.:22:59.

apprenticeship levy is about, companies are investing their works

:23:00.:23:04.

force to take more opportunities that there. We are talking about

:23:05.:23:09.

fairness, politicians talk about hard-working people and we know the

:23:10.:23:12.

average earnings are no higher than they were in 2008. We know the pay

:23:13.:23:18.

and bonuses of senior executives have continued to grow and the

:23:19.:23:22.

Institute for Fiscal Studies has shown 3 million of the poorest

:23:23.:23:25.

households will lose an average of ?2500 a year in the next Parliament,

:23:26.:23:30.

benefits frozen, further sanctions kick in. 3 million of the poorest

:23:31.:23:38.

losing 2500. Under the Tories, one law for the rich and another for the

:23:39.:23:43.

poor. It is quite wrong. First of all, we have got to be fair to the

:23:44.:23:47.

taxpayer who is funding the welfare and benefit system. Which is why the

:23:48.:23:52.

welfare was right. Get more people in work and then it is important to

:23:53.:24:02.

get more people upscaling. As that allowance rises, people have more of

:24:03.:24:05.

the money they earn in their pocket to be able to use in the economy.

:24:06.:24:12.

People will be worse off. 2500, among the poorest already. They will

:24:13.:24:17.

have more money in their pocket as we increase the allowance before

:24:18.:24:24.

people pay tax. We have seen millions of people coming out of tax

:24:25.:24:29.

altogether. The reason I ask these questions, you and the Prime

:24:30.:24:33.

Minister go on and on about the just about managing classes. I am talking

:24:34.:24:37.

about the just about managing and below that. It is all talk, you

:24:38.:24:42.

haven't done anything for them. We have made sure they have an

:24:43.:24:45.

increasing minimum wage, it has gone up more under us than any other

:24:46.:24:52.

previous government. Their wages will be still lower in real terms.

:24:53.:24:58.

Let me come on to this plan for housing. We have announced a new

:24:59.:25:02.

plan to increase affordable housing, social housing, some council housing

:25:03.:25:07.

and social housing built by the associations. How much money is

:25:08.:25:12.

behind this? It is part of the 1.4 billion announced in the Autumn

:25:13.:25:17.

Statement. How many homes will you get for 1.4 billion? That depends on

:25:18.:25:22.

the negotiations with local authorities. It is local

:25:23.:25:26.

authorities, who know the area best. I will not put a number on that. 1.4

:25:27.:25:33.

billion, if you price the house at 100,000, which is very low,

:25:34.:25:38.

particularly for the South, back at you 14,000 new homes. That is it.

:25:39.:25:44.

What we have seen before, how the local government can leveraged to

:25:45.:25:48.

build thousands more homes. That is what we want to see across the

:25:49.:25:52.

country. It is not just about the money, for a lot of local

:25:53.:25:54.

authorities it is about the expertise and knowledge on how to do

:25:55.:26:01.

this. That is why support from the housing communities minister will

:26:02.:26:04.

help. What is the timescale, how many more affordable homes will be

:26:05.:26:11.

built? I will not put a number on it. You announced it today, so you

:26:12.:26:16.

cannot tell me how many more or what the target is? It is a matter of

:26:17.:26:20.

working with the local authorities who know what their local needs are,

:26:21.:26:24.

what land they have got available. What we saw through the local

:26:25.:26:28.

elections with the Metro mayors, they want to deliver in their areas,

:26:29.:26:33.

whether it is the West of England, the north-east, Liverpool,

:26:34.:26:35.

Manchester and we want to work with them. You have said variations of

:26:36.:26:42.

this for the past seven years and I want some credibility. When you

:26:43.:26:45.

cannot tell us how much money, what the target and timescale is, and

:26:46.:26:51.

this government, under which affordable house building has fallen

:26:52.:26:56.

to a 24 year low. 1.2 million families are on waiting lists for

:26:57.:27:00.

social housing to rent. That is your record. Why should we believe a word

:27:01.:27:05.

you say? This is different to what we have been doing over the last two

:27:06.:27:10.

years. We want to develop and have a strong and stable economy that can

:27:11.:27:14.

sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This is important. In 2010, we inherited

:27:15.:27:24.

the lowest level of house building, 75,000 new homes. That is about

:27:25.:27:28.

189,000 over the last four years. That is a big step forward after the

:27:29.:27:33.

crash, getting people back into the industry. More first-time buyers

:27:34.:27:43.

onto the market. Final question, in 2010, 2011, your first year in

:27:44.:27:48.

government, there were 60,000 affordable homes built. May not be

:27:49.:27:54.

enough, but last day it was 30 2000. So why should we trust anything you

:27:55.:28:00.

say about this? On housing, we have delivered. We have delivered more

:28:01.:28:08.

social housing. Double what Labour did in 13 years, in just five years.

:28:09.:28:14.

This is what this policy is about, working with local authorities to

:28:15.:28:17.

deliver more homes to people in their local areas. Thank you.

:28:18.:28:21.

Now, they have a deficit of between 15 and 20% in the polls,

:28:22.:28:24.

but Jeremy Corbyn and those around him insist Labour can win.

:28:25.:28:27.

If the polls are right they've got three and half weeks to change

:28:28.:28:30.

voters' minds and persuade those fabled undecided voters

:28:31.:28:32.

We enlisted the polling organisation YouGov to help us find out how

:28:33.:28:37.

the performance of party leaders will affect behaviour

:28:38.:28:39.

Leeds, a city of three quarters of a million people,

:28:40.:28:48.

eight Parliamentary seats and home to our very own focus group.

:28:49.:28:53.

Our panel was recruited from a variety of backgrounds

:28:54.:28:56.

and the majority say they haven't decided who to vote for yet.

:28:57.:29:00.

Watching behind the glass, two experts on different sides

:29:01.:29:02.

Giles Cunningham, who headed up political press at Downing Street

:29:03.:29:09.

under David Cameron and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter,

:29:10.:29:15.

under David Cameron and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter,

:29:16.:29:17.

I think Theresa May sees herself as a pound shop Thatcher.

:29:18.:29:22.

Milliband's policies but when it came

:29:23.:29:41.

about who you want, if you wake up on maybe a 2015,

:29:42.:29:45.

We found in a couple of focus groups, people saying

:29:46.:29:49.

we'd be quite relieved, even though some of those same

:29:50.:29:52.

people have been saying we quite like the Labour policies.

:29:53.:29:54.

I think the fact that Corbyn's going so hard on his values,

:29:55.:29:58.

this is a really progressive manifesto, they live

:29:59.:30:00.

But I think that's a new challenge, that wasn't there in 2015.

:30:01.:30:04.

Is there anyone here that you don't recognise?

:30:05.:30:06.

After a little warm up, the first exercise, recognising

:30:07.:30:09.

I think it's nice to have a strong woman in politics, I do.

:30:10.:30:15.

But I've got to say, when she comes on the news,

:30:16.:30:18.

I kind of do think, here we go again.

:30:19.:30:20.

Tell me about Tim Farron, what are your impressions of Tim Farron?

:30:21.:30:23.

It isn't going to do anything, it isn't going to change anything.

:30:24.:30:27.

You'll be surprised to hear it's actually the Greens.

:30:28.:30:36.

Strong and stable leadership in the national interest.

:30:37.:30:49.

Yes, Team May, it's the British equivalent of make

:30:50.:30:53.

What do we think about this one for the many and not the few?

:30:54.:31:03.

It's not quite as bad as strong and stable,

:31:04.:31:05.

but it will probably get on our nerves after a while.

:31:06.:31:08.

We must seize that chance today and every day until June the 8th.

:31:09.:31:19.

But that's not quite my question, my question is,

:31:20.:31:26.

if you are Prime Minister, we will leave, come hell or high

:31:27.:31:29.

water, whatever is on the table at the end of the negotiations?

:31:30.:31:32.

If we win the election, we'll get a good deal with Europe.

:31:33.:31:35.

Assertive and in control and he felt comfortable

:31:36.:31:37.

But the second one, I thought he was very hesitant.

:31:38.:31:42.

I thought he was kind of, hovering around, skirting around

:31:43.:31:51.

and that's the second time I've seen a similar

:31:52.:31:53.

interview with the question being asked regarding Brexit.

:31:54.:31:55.

I don't think I'd have any confidence with him

:31:56.:31:57.

You think you are going up against some quite strong people,

:31:58.:32:01.

how are you going to stand up for us?

:32:02.:32:03.

When you are in negotiations, you need to be tough.

:32:04.:32:08.

And actually is right to be tough sometimes,

:32:09.:32:10.

particularly when you are doing something for the country.

:32:11.:32:12.

There's a reason for talking about strong and stable leadership.

:32:13.:32:15.

It's about the future of the country, it's

:32:16.:32:17.

It's just that people kind of listen to that kind of thing and think

:32:18.:32:21.

Both on The One Show and in the news.

:32:22.:32:27.

She attracts the public better than what Corbyn does.

:32:28.:32:33.

She didn't answer the question in a more articular way than Corbyn

:32:34.:32:36.

Imagine that Theresa May is an animal.

:32:37.:32:42.

So, in your minds, what animal is coming to mind

:32:43.:32:45.

I've done a Pekinese because I think she's all bark and no bite.

:32:46.:32:59.

Alpaca because she's superior looking and woolly

:33:00.:33:05.

I don't think his policies are for the modern, real world.

:33:06.:33:21.

A mouse because they are weak and they can be easily bullied,

:33:22.:33:24.

but also they can catch you by surprise if you're

:33:25.:33:27.

What do you take away from what you saw then,

:33:28.:33:35.

and what message would you send back to the Tories now?

:33:36.:33:37.

I think what came over is people see Theresa May as a strong politician,

:33:38.:33:41.

not everyone likes her, but you don't need to be

:33:42.:33:43.

liked to be elected, because ultimately it's about who do

:33:44.:33:45.

you trust with your future and your security.

:33:46.:33:47.

I think what I also take out of that focus group,

:33:48.:33:50.

was it was a group of floating voters, there was no huge appetite

:33:51.:33:53.

for the Lib Dems and there was no huge appetite for Ukip.

:33:54.:33:56.

So my messaged back to CCHQ would be stick to the plan.

:33:57.:33:59.

I thought the response to the manifesto was excellent.

:34:00.:34:02.

It's clear that people aren't particularly keen on Theresa May,

:34:03.:34:05.

There are some associations with her about strength and stability,

:34:06.:34:09.

which is exactly what the Tory party want of course, but they are not

:34:10.:34:13.

positive and nobody thinks that she has a vision

:34:14.:34:15.

So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn, what I'd say to the Labour Party is,

:34:16.:34:21.

they need to really emphasise the manifesto in

:34:22.:34:23.

Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform out of his skin and I think

:34:24.:34:30.

he has to reemphasise those characteristics which may be have

:34:31.:34:32.

come to the fore may be over the last 12 months,

:34:33.:34:35.

resilience, strength and the fact that he's come this far,

:34:36.:34:37.

why not take that final step and go into ten Downing Street?

:34:38.:34:40.

We're joined now by the American political consultant

:34:41.:34:42.

For the sake of this discussion, assume the polls at the moment are

:34:43.:34:52.

broadly right, is there any hope for Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters?

:34:53.:34:58.

Know, and this is a very serious collection with serious consequences

:34:59.:35:02.

to who wins. Nobody cares whether you can draw and what animal they

:35:03.:35:06.

represent, they want to know where they stand, and I felt that was

:35:07.:35:10.

frivolous. I come to Britain to watch elections because I learned

:35:11.:35:16.

from here. Your elections are more substantial, more serious, more

:35:17.:35:19.

policy and less about personality and that peace was only about

:35:20.:35:23.

personality. That's partly because Mrs May has decided to make this a

:35:24.:35:28.

presidential election. You can see on the posters it is all Team May. I

:35:29.:35:42.

agree with that, and in her language she says not everyone benefits from

:35:43.:35:47.

a Conservative government, I don't see how using anything Republicans

:35:48.:35:51.

have used in the past. In fact her campaign is more of a centrist

:35:52.:35:55.

Democrats but it is a smart strategy because it pushes Corbyn further to

:35:56.:36:00.

the left. Of course you said Hillary Clinton have won. On election night

:36:01.:36:05.

the polling was so bad in America, the exit polls that were done, the

:36:06.:36:11.

BBC told America she had won. No, I was anchoring the programme that

:36:12.:36:17.

night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC had the same numbers. Yes, but we

:36:18.:36:25.

did not say she had won, I can assure you of that. Because of

:36:26.:36:29.

people like you we thought she had but we didn't broadcast it. That was

:36:30.:36:36.

a smart approach. My point is other than teasing you, maybe there is

:36:37.:36:41.

hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you will have one of the lowest turnout

:36:42.:36:46.

in modern history and I think Labour will fall to one of the lowest

:36:47.:36:50.

percentages, not percentage of number of seats they have had, and

:36:51.:36:55.

this will be a matter of soul-searching for both political

:36:56.:36:59.

parties. What you do with a sizeable majority, and she has a

:37:00.:37:03.

responsibility to tell the British people exactly what happens as she

:37:04.:37:09.

moves forward. He and Labour will have to take a look at whether they

:37:10.:37:14.

still represent a significant slice of the British population. Do you

:37:15.:37:19.

see a realignment in British politics taking place? I see a

:37:20.:37:22.

crumbling of the left and yet there is still a significant percentage of

:37:23.:37:26.

the British population that once someone who is centre-left. And they

:37:27.:37:36.

like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies. I'm listening to Michael foot. I

:37:37.:37:39.

went to school here in the 1980s and I feel like I'm watching the Labour

:37:40.:37:42.

Party of 35 years ago, in a population that wants to focus on

:37:43.:37:43.

the future, not the past. Thank you. It's just gone 11.35,

:37:44.:37:50.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:51.:37:52.

in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20

:37:53.:37:55.

minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday

:37:56.:37:58.

Politics where you are. Hello and welcome to the London part

:37:59.:38:13.

of the show. Joining me for the duration -

:38:14.:38:21.

David Lammy, Labour candidate for Tottenham, and Mark Field

:38:22.:38:24.

Conservative candidate for the I want to start with you David

:38:25.:38:26.

and the Labour Manifesto. Let's talk about tax because the

:38:27.:38:32.

parts of the Labour manifesto we have seen so far is date they are

:38:33.:38:38.

planning to increase taxes on those who earn over ?30,000 per year, do

:38:39.:38:44.

you support that? Absolutely, average wages in London are around

:38:45.:38:49.

35,000, depending on where you are in the city. When I think of care

:38:50.:39:00.

workers, the vast majority need public services we can count on and

:39:01.:39:04.

that means for the small percentage at the top they should pay a bit

:39:05.:39:09.

more. But why not more than that? John McDonnell says it is a modest

:39:10.:39:14.

increase, but why not be more radical? We have also said there

:39:15.:39:18.

should be changes to corporation tax, which were slashed dramatically

:39:19.:39:23.

by George Osborne, and I think inheritance tax, which was also

:39:24.:39:27.

slashed by the Government, so it's not just the income tax threshold we

:39:28.:39:31.

are looking at, but quite properly, if you see the social care crisis we

:39:32.:39:36.

have got, if you are worried about A queues, we need at the top to

:39:37.:39:41.

pay more and that's why it's popular. 58% on pest and saying they

:39:42.:39:46.

were for it. And Labour has been clear, if you want to go for a low

:39:47.:39:51.

tax party you must vote for the Labour party, not the Conservative

:39:52.:39:59.

Party. Let's see what is in the manifesto. I don't think you should

:40:00.:40:04.

prejudge it. Londoners do not feel undertaxed. Which Londoners? Many

:40:05.:40:12.

Londoners. I expect the Londoners I represent are slightly different...

:40:13.:40:18.

In Ealing and Acton, Brentford and Chiswick, areas such as Westminster

:40:19.:40:22.

North, 80,000 is not a lot of money. It is a very expensive city in which

:40:23.:40:28.

to live, their cost of living is high, but anyone on ?55,000 per year

:40:29.:40:34.

will think Hang on, I'm two promotions away from being regarded

:40:35.:40:38.

as super rich. Do you think anyone who burns over ?80,000 are

:40:39.:40:45.

super-rich? I can afford to pay a bit more and I am over ?80,000 and

:40:46.:40:51.

so is Mark. The vast majority of Londoners are nowhere near that and

:40:52.:40:56.

that is on two incomes in their homes. We have been feeling the

:40:57.:41:01.

squeeze since 2008 when wages have not gone up in this city. Are you

:41:02.:41:05.

supporting the wrong people in this election if you are going to

:41:06.:41:09.

criticise a policy like this? If you look at it in the round across the

:41:10.:41:21.

country, 95% of people won't pay higher taxes under Labour, that's

:41:22.:41:23.

pretty good. That's the way they are putting it at the moment. People are

:41:24.:41:26.

aspiring to earn more. I think the biggest story I hear particularly

:41:27.:41:30.

about income tax is that many people who are burning in the higher rates

:41:31.:41:34.

of tax feel a massive disincentive to working harder. Are you killing

:41:35.:41:42.

aspirations? The choice is between taxation or austerity, and the

:41:43.:41:47.

Tories have gone for slashing and burning as always. Our local

:41:48.:41:50.

authority not even properly able to clean the streets and the rubbish

:41:51.:41:55.

bins. Look at the housing we haven't built. All that we absolutely need

:41:56.:42:03.

to see a tax threshold increase. Let's talk about the style of the

:42:04.:42:07.

campaign, Labour were criticised in parts of the press because of the

:42:08.:42:12.

last week but what about the Tory campaign, is it too presidential?

:42:13.:42:17.

Theresa May has made it all about her, not about the party. Not at

:42:18.:42:21.

all, it's about the team behind her. She has made it clear, and clearly

:42:22.:42:26.

there is a disparity, and we want to say to the public at large there is

:42:27.:42:35.

a choice. Only two people can be Prime Minister come the 9th of June.

:42:36.:42:38.

It cannot be Nicola Sturgeon or Tim Farron, and it's right to boil it

:42:39.:42:44.

down to a choice. It has been because I presidential campaign but

:42:45.:42:47.

Theresa May has strong views and she needs not just a mandate to get

:42:48.:42:53.

Brexit through but more importantly there has been too much short-term

:42:54.:42:57.

is in politics as a whole. The idea that we want to say we want a

:42:58.:43:02.

domestic agenda... Has it been extended beyond just Theresa May, in

:43:03.:43:09.

our experiences in trying to get Tory representatives to put people

:43:10.:43:15.

up... Yes, you are here but we have also experienced people who said

:43:16.:43:20.

they will come on, then it has been scuppered by Conservative Central

:43:21.:43:24.

office which plays into the idea of questions being briefed from

:43:25.:43:27.

journalists to Theresa May before she is asked questions. To be fair

:43:28.:43:33.

all elections are thermally controlled events. You are always

:43:34.:43:36.

looking to try to find divisions and it applies to the Labour Party as

:43:37.:43:41.

well as our party, rather than have a broad debate. As London MPs David

:43:42.:43:46.

and I probably agree on more things that might meet the eye but there

:43:47.:43:50.

are certain issues where we wouldn't be entirely at one with our party

:43:51.:43:55.

necessarily, on whole range of issues such as migration. We are

:43:56.:43:59.

living in a global city, we recognise the importance of

:44:00.:44:05.

financial services, and therefore if we come on the programme is the last

:44:06.:44:08.

thing we want to hear is, you are divided from what your party

:44:09.:44:09.

leadership are saying. In the first in our series of films

:44:10.:44:13.

looking at what the parties have to offer London,

:44:14.:44:16.

Andrew Cryan has been out and about with the Green

:44:17.:44:18.

party in North London. The fullest environmental parties

:44:19.:44:26.

blossomed in the 1970s. Are we really going to have

:44:27.:44:28.

twice as many cars? But today they've evolved

:44:29.:44:31.

into something different, and the Green Party is fighting this

:44:32.:44:38.

election on a whole range of policies, many of which bear

:44:39.:44:44.

a striking similarity When I heard their manifesto

:44:45.:44:46.

being leaked and discussed on Radio 4 yesterday morning, I thought

:44:47.:44:53.

it was our manifesto that had been leaked for a moment,

:44:54.:44:56.

and then I realised some of the policies weren't quite

:44:57.:44:58.

as radical as ours. The Green Party manifesto

:44:59.:45:00.

is due out in a few days, but the policies they have released,

:45:01.:45:04.

well many are exactly the same as Labour's, including votes for 16

:45:05.:45:07.

year olds and a promise to end both university tuition fees

:45:08.:45:10.

and NHS privatisation. Both parties say they want to scrap

:45:11.:45:13.

the Government's immigration target, introduce rent controls,

:45:14.:45:17.

and build a very similar number Well, the Greens, I think,

:45:18.:45:19.

have the real challenge, electorally, that the Labour Party

:45:20.:45:32.

in its current and with its current leadership

:45:33.:45:34.

is probably quite attractive to many Green voters,

:45:35.:45:37.

so those voters who in ex-Labour voters who had gone

:45:38.:45:40.

to the Greens will now But there is one big policy

:45:41.:45:43.

the Greens are hoping They want a second

:45:44.:45:47.

referendum on EU membership. People should vote Green for a party

:45:48.:45:51.

that will give people a say on the terms of any EU exit deal

:45:52.:46:00.

that is negotiated by whoever is Prime Minister after

:46:01.:46:03.

the general election. But the reality of this election

:46:04.:46:05.

is that the Green Party's number one priority is to protect their soul

:46:06.:46:16.

MP, Caroline Lucas, in Brighton Pavilion,

:46:17.:46:18.

and maybe if they are lucky pick up At the weekends, many Green

:46:19.:46:21.

activists from London are not campaigning in the capital

:46:22.:46:25.

but jumping on a train On the Green Party website,

:46:26.:46:27.

none of the seats they are giving priority to are in London,

:46:28.:46:31.

and in fact, in some of the key races in the capital,

:46:32.:46:34.

the Greens aren't putting Now, this is one of

:46:35.:46:36.

the tightest constituencies in all of the country,

:46:37.:46:39.

Ealing Central and Acton. The Labour Party won it last

:46:40.:46:41.

time by just 274 votes. Now, on the 8th of June,

:46:42.:46:44.

the Green Party have decided not to stand a candidate,

:46:45.:46:47.

saying people should lend their votes to Labour

:46:48.:46:49.

and keep the Tories out. Stephen Clarke has helped

:46:50.:46:52.

negotiate deals between those There are now five seats in London

:46:53.:46:54.

where the Greens have I think the Green Party have clearly

:46:55.:46:58.

operated more in the spirit of the alliance than the other

:46:59.:47:06.

parties and I think this has got They passed a resolution

:47:07.:47:10.

at their recent conference which said it was for local parties

:47:11.:47:16.

to decide whether, in the interests of pushing the Green agenda

:47:17.:47:19.

and pushing electoral change, if they chose to stand

:47:20.:47:21.

aside they could. Traditionally the Greens have tended

:47:22.:47:32.

to rely on younger voters, but where they are standing

:47:33.:47:34.

candidates in London, they will be fighting hard for votes

:47:35.:47:36.

from people of all ages. The question is whether

:47:37.:47:40.

in their hearts they are I am joined by Sian Berry

:47:41.:47:42.

from the London Assembly, The Tories have called the

:47:43.:48:18.

selection, voters out there know they shouldn't do just what the

:48:19.:48:24.

Tories say. Lots of people are wondering how we can prevent this. 1

:48:25.:48:29.

million voted in the last election for the Green party but we still

:48:30.:48:33.

only came out with one MP. The system is broken and we have to be

:48:34.:48:39.

working with voters to change the system so millions of people across

:48:40.:48:42.

the country in marginals and in areas where the Greens are not

:48:43.:48:46.

strong, where it is Labour against Tory save seeds, we have to do

:48:47.:48:53.

something about that. That is always the battle cry from you and the

:48:54.:48:56.

Liberal Democrats in terms of the voting system, but even so, the

:48:57.:49:00.

figures are going in the wrong direction for you, where as you were

:49:01.:49:05.

building last time round? The thing we have done in this election is

:49:06.:49:08.

putting people in the direction of stopping the Tories getting a huge

:49:09.:49:14.

majority. That has to be reflected in maybe a dip in the National

:49:15.:49:19.

polls. But in areas like Islington North where Caroline is campaigning,

:49:20.:49:26.

people want a second referendum on Brexit... In other areas, it is not

:49:27.:49:32.

unique. How big an issue is Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party because

:49:33.:49:37.

that manifesto, as your colleagues, it could have been the Green party

:49:38.:49:42.

manifesto. If you are going to go for a left of centre Progressive

:49:43.:49:46.

Alliance, you will vote for the Labour Party. The only party you can

:49:47.:49:55.

count on who will look after the environments, and Labour has a mixed

:49:56.:50:01.

up policy on Brexit. Talking about cutting freedom of movement and not

:50:02.:50:05.

being in the single market is what the Greens in Parliament will fight

:50:06.:50:08.

for. We have promised everyone in the country a final say on the deal

:50:09.:50:15.

that will come from the EU. Almost nobody under the age of 21 by the

:50:16.:50:21.

time we exit the EU, will have had a say on that. That is a distinctive

:50:22.:50:28.

offer, but you are hailing the Alliance as something that has been

:50:29.:50:32.

adopted broadly. They have not taken up your cry on this issue, whether

:50:33.:50:37.

it would have worked or not, we will never know. You are not contesting

:50:38.:50:42.

five London seats. It is not being reciprocated in any formal way, why

:50:43.:50:46.

bother gives the Liberal Democrats and Labour the free run? There were

:50:47.:50:51.

more than six seats across London where this thing was considered. It

:50:52.:51:00.

is a shame Labour didn't join in at a national level and stand aside in

:51:01.:51:03.

the Isle of Wight. But in other places where we are doing it, these

:51:04.:51:06.

are tiny majorities, where it does make sense for the progressive vote

:51:07.:51:10.

to come behind the Labour candidate and I am proud of the Greens who

:51:11.:51:14.

have done that. Is it a missed opportunity, white isn't Labour

:51:15.:51:21.

working with the Greens because you could've maximised your seats? I am

:51:22.:51:26.

worried about any potential for a lack of opposition for a

:51:27.:51:29.

Conservative government so I am more open to working with the Greens than

:51:30.:51:35.

others in my party. I have worked well with Caroline Lucas in our

:51:36.:51:39.

opposition to Brexit, we share an all-party group. Having said that, I

:51:40.:51:44.

am pleased to see the Greens stand down in places like Ealing, where I

:51:45.:51:50.

do think you have strong MPs, you want that support. Therefore, there

:51:51.:51:57.

is a continued discussion on where we can work together. Have you

:51:58.:52:02.

talked to the Greens locally? Yes, we have talked to the Greens in the

:52:03.:52:08.

London Borough of Haringey. But you wouldn't be in favour of that? The

:52:09.:52:18.

election was called very quickly. This is a special election, enormous

:52:19.:52:23.

things at stake. Apart from your offer on Brexit, what is it you

:52:24.:52:26.

don't like about the Labour manifesto? There is definitely a

:52:27.:52:37.

role for the Greens on the London assembly, challenging the mayor on

:52:38.:52:41.

some of his broken promises on estates and renting. On tax, rail

:52:42.:52:48.

nationalisation, when it comes to the salaries for the public sector,

:52:49.:52:57.

anything you disagree with? We are in our 2015 manifesto and we are

:52:58.:53:00.

flattered to see them taken up by the Labour Party. We are a distinct

:53:01.:53:05.

party and we have a distinct offer in the selection, which is the final

:53:06.:53:10.

combination on Brexit, and you won't find another party doing that. In

:53:11.:53:16.

terms of the environment, could we say the Conservative Party is

:53:17.:53:22.

environment light? I would not say it is light. Where the Green party

:53:23.:53:27.

had difficulty making breakthrough, which is tribute to their

:53:28.:53:31.

involvement in politics over the years, both the Conservative Party

:53:32.:53:37.

and the Labour Party have taken on certain policies. Which one?

:53:38.:53:50.

Immolation, one of the regrets, the whole business in the High Court

:53:51.:53:54.

before the election was called, that will be a priority if we are

:53:55.:53:58.

re-elected, we will get something on clean air. In general terms, do you

:53:59.:54:05.

think the Conservative Party could do more and has gone backwards? No,

:54:06.:54:12.

there is a huge amount on renewables, solar and wind energy.

:54:13.:54:16.

In the last ten years there has been a change in the tax treatment in

:54:17.:54:21.

relation to this. In many ways, a tribute to the impact the Green

:54:22.:54:27.

party has had as a movement. I have spent the last five years fighting

:54:28.:54:31.

the Conservative's road-building plans. We don't have a green

:54:32.:54:35.

government. Everything they do is tiny and token. We need the Greens

:54:36.:54:39.

in Parliament arguing for comprehensive things like a

:54:40.:54:42.

sustainable transport policy and clean air act. Let's move on to that

:54:43.:54:45.

issue. Let's move on to an issue

:54:46.:54:49.

of particular interest to the Green party and one which campaigners say

:54:50.:54:52.

should be a major concern for all political parties -

:54:53.:54:55.

air quality in the capital. Our environment correspondent

:54:56.:54:57.

Tom Edwards reports on what the parties are proposing

:54:58.:54:59.

to tackle the problem, which affects many living in London

:55:00.:55:01.

and might well influence A community in Kennington

:55:02.:55:03.

demanding action on bad air. My name is Aoife, I am

:55:04.:55:07.

seven years old... They want all parties

:55:08.:55:09.

to sign their Clean Air pledge. I want to try and clean up

:55:10.:55:13.

the pollution in the air so when I get older I won't have

:55:14.:55:16.

lung disease or problems I feel that the bad air I will be

:55:17.:55:19.

breathing in will make me ill. 45,000 vehicles a day use this

:55:20.:55:24.

road, poor air quality Will it affect how you

:55:25.:55:27.

vote in the election? There needs to be

:55:28.:55:32.

a Clean Air agenda. We can't continue like

:55:33.:55:38.

this, this is a killer. We are pretending it's not

:55:39.:55:41.

there because you can't see it, ARCHIVE: If it weren't

:55:42.:55:43.

for the smoke-laden fog outside, The last big political

:55:44.:55:47.

intervention on air quality ARCHIVE: Here is the main source

:55:48.:55:53.

of atmospheric pollution. The Clean Air Act banned coal

:55:54.:56:00.

after the great smog, There are calls for new legislation

:56:01.:56:02.

to tackle fumes from traffic. About 50% of nitrogen dioxide

:56:03.:56:11.

is due to road traffic. The mayor says he can deal

:56:12.:56:16.

with about half of that with his ultralow emission zone

:56:17.:56:19.

where the polluter pays, but he'll need help from whoever

:56:20.:56:22.

is elected here to deal Children here at the Royal Brompton

:56:23.:56:25.

see the impact of London's high levels of pollution,

:56:26.:56:33.

especially nitrogen dioxide. Experts say it slows lung growth

:56:34.:56:36.

and poor air is shortening the lives These doctors want

:56:37.:56:40.

action and this week, took their message to Downing

:56:41.:56:47.

Street. It is about changing the fleet,

:56:48.:56:50.

removing the vehicle fleet, removing the vehicles that are most

:56:51.:56:53.

polluting, particularly the older diesel vehicles,

:56:54.:56:58.

but making sure the newer vehicles As soon as I asked Sophie Walker,

:56:59.:57:01.

who is my party leader, In Kennington, the Women's

:57:02.:57:05.

Equality Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and Labour

:57:06.:57:09.

all pledge to clean up pollution. We really do want to see a diesel

:57:10.:57:14.

scrappage scheme because we think getting diesel cars off our roads

:57:15.:57:17.

is the most important thing we can do to improve the air quality,

:57:18.:57:20.

particularly in London, particularly in places

:57:21.:57:23.

like Kennington. What we will be setting

:57:24.:57:25.

out in our manifesto are a national framework,

:57:26.:57:28.

a national framework which doesn't just give local

:57:29.:57:31.

authorities the responsibility, but actually make sure they are then

:57:32.:57:34.

backed up with the competence We have to have a Clean Air Act

:57:35.:57:37.

that is fit for the 21st century, that can deal with these poisonous,

:57:38.:57:46.

tiny, tiny little particles that get deep into our lungs

:57:47.:57:48.

and into our bloodstreams. The Conservatives didn't attend,

:57:49.:57:53.

they would charge diesel drivers The real public health

:57:54.:57:56.

issues are in areas, our main cities where there

:57:57.:58:03.

are particular problems. That's where we should be

:58:04.:58:08.

focusing our efforts. We don't want to see a national

:58:09.:58:12.

programme of penalising motorists. Clean air campaigners say London

:58:13.:58:17.

is now in the grip of a health emergency and say all parties should

:58:18.:58:27.

make tackling it a priority. David Lambie, how would you get

:58:28.:58:40.

diesel cars off the road. We have got to move to a scrappage scheme,

:58:41.:58:46.

move away from diesel. The evidence has moved on. We understand a

:58:47.:58:49.

particular problem with pollutants and particles in the lungs. Children

:58:50.:58:55.

are dying in this city and I suspect in other major cities across the

:58:56.:58:59.

country. That is why it is a national scheme. In a sense, the

:59:00.:59:04.

running the mayor has done in London with the High Commission zones and

:59:05.:59:08.

his toxicity charge have to become national and that is why we need a

:59:09.:59:14.

new clean air act. As we got rid of smog in the past, we need to deal

:59:15.:59:17.

with this and it needs a national framework. Do you agree that,

:59:18.:59:21.

charging diesel drivers as a last resort, will not get diesel cars off

:59:22.:59:29.

the road. Simon Burkett, my friend... Environmental science is

:59:30.:59:35.

in a state of flux, because 15 years ago the government at the time was

:59:36.:59:43.

saying go down the diesel route. We need a diesel scrappage scheme but

:59:44.:59:46.

we need to recognise those who were in scent of eyes to go down the

:59:47.:59:51.

diesel route and should be getting some compensation. You are

:59:52.:59:54.

penalising drivers, and many of them would have bought diesel cars

:59:55.:59:57.

thinking it was the right thing to do?

:59:58.:00:05.

Yes, and the car-makers should pay. They should be the ones paying, we

:00:06.:00:15.

shouldn't give them a bonus for a scrappage scheme. Diesel damaging

:00:16.:00:20.

people's lungs was well established at the time. What is the choice,

:00:21.:00:28.

children dying or looking at the car manufacturers, many who spun against

:00:29.:00:32.

the evidence at the time, and saying, yes, actually, if we are

:00:33.:00:35.

putting a framework together they have to take more of a burden than

:00:36.:00:40.

the taxpayer so we can move forward and create an environment we can all

:00:41.:00:46.

live in. I'm saying let back car manufacturers, let's not move away

:00:47.:00:52.

from diesel -- that is what the Tories are saying. It is a very

:00:53.:00:58.

emotive subject and we have run out of time.

:00:59.:01:05.

On Thursday nominations closed in the 650 parliamentary

:01:06.:01:10.

seats across the country, so now we know exactly who's

:01:11.:01:12.

We've been analysing the parties' candidates to find out

:01:13.:01:19.

what they might tell us about the make-up of the House

:01:20.:01:22.

Well, we know Theresa May is committed to delivering Brexit and

:01:23.:01:27.

analysis of Conservative candidates has shown that

:01:28.:01:32.

in their top 100 target seats, 37 candidates supported leave

:01:33.:01:34.

during last year's referendum campaign

:01:35.:01:42.

and 20 supported remain; 43 have not made public

:01:43.:01:44.

In the last parliament, the vast majority of Labour MPs

:01:45.:01:50.

were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how supportive are Labour

:01:51.:01:53.

Well, of 50 of Labour's top 100 target seats

:01:54.:01:59.

17 candidates have expressed support for Mr Corbyn.

:02:00.:02:01.

20 candidates supported Owen Smith in last year's leadership contest

:02:02.:02:06.

or have expressed anti-Corbyn sentiment, and

:02:07.:02:10.

If they won those, the Labour benches would be

:02:11.:02:16.

marginally more sympathetic to Mr Corbyn than they are now.

:02:17.:02:19.

What do the figures tell us about where the other

:02:20.:02:21.

Well, the Lib Dems have decided not to stand against the Greens

:02:22.:02:25.

in Brighton Pavilion, and are fielding 629

:02:26.:02:27.

candidates this year - that's two fewer than 2015.

:02:28.:02:29.

The number of Ukip candidates has fallen dramatically.

:02:30.:02:33.

They are standing in 247 fewer constituencies than 2015,

:02:34.:02:39.

throwing their support behind solidly pro-Brexit Tories

:02:40.:02:42.

in some areas such as Lewes and Norfolk North.

:02:43.:02:46.

The Greens are fielding 103 fewer candidates

:02:47.:02:50.

than at the last election, standing down to help

:02:51.:03:00.

other progressive candidates in some places.

:03:01.:03:06.

The most liking statistic is the demise in Ukip candidates, is this

:03:07.:03:19.

their swansong? And I think so. It is remarkable how few Ukip

:03:20.:03:26.

candidates are standing. It is hard to see they will suddenly revive in

:03:27.:03:29.

the next couple of years. I think this is probably the end. Frank

:03:30.:03:39.

Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of the left was a feature of this

:03:40.:03:44.

election, but also there is the consolidation of the right, and if

:03:45.:03:46.

you take the things together that could explain why the polls are

:03:47.:03:51.

where they are. Absolutely, that's precisely what happened at the start

:03:52.:03:56.

of the 1980s, the right was incredibly united and that's when we

:03:57.:04:01.

started talking about majorities of over 100 or so. No matter what the

:04:02.:04:08.

size of Theresa May's majority, it will be the total collapse of Ukip,

:04:09.:04:12.

but not just because we are now leaving the EU and that was their

:04:13.:04:19.

only reason for being, but a whole lot of people voted for Ukip because

:04:20.:04:23.

they felt the Tories were no longer listening. Theresa May has given the

:04:24.:04:31.

impression that she is listening, and that is the biggest possible

:04:32.:04:33.

thing that could happen to the Tory vote. Fragmentation of the left,

:04:34.:04:42.

consolidation of the right? It's one of the lessons that is never learnt,

:04:43.:04:48.

it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't take much for the whole thing to

:04:49.:04:53.

fracture so now you have on the centre-left the SNP, the Labour

:04:54.:04:58.

Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats all competing for the same

:04:59.:05:04.

votes and when you have, fleetingly perhaps, large numbers coalescing on

:05:05.:05:07.

the right in one party, there is only going to be one outcome. It

:05:08.:05:13.

happens regularly. It doesn't mean the Tories haven't got their own

:05:14.:05:19.

fragility. Two years ago, David Cameron and George Osborne the

:05:20.:05:22.

dominant figures, neither are in Parliament now which is a symptom of

:05:23.:05:26.

the fragility this election is disguising. Mrs May's position in a

:05:27.:05:32.

way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on

:05:33.:05:37.

the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, I won't be outflanked on the

:05:38.:05:41.

right, so the National Front didn't get through either timed he ran to

:05:42.:05:45.

the second round on like this time, and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be

:05:46.:05:52.

outflanked Iver and as a result has seen off right flank. And also she

:05:53.:05:56.

is looking to the left as well with some of the state interventions.

:05:57.:05:59.

What was interesting about the analysis you showed a few minutes

:06:00.:06:02.

ago was the number of Tory candidates who have apparently not

:06:03.:06:08.

declared which way they voted in the referendum, and you would have

:06:09.:06:11.

thought if this election was all about Brexit, as some would claim,

:06:12.:06:16.

that would become an unsustainable position, and actually more it's

:06:17.:06:20.

about leadership. But the point that I'm now hearing from a number of

:06:21.:06:26.

Labour candidates that they are seeing Tory leaflets that don't even

:06:27.:06:31.

have the Tory candidate's name on them, it is just about Theresa May.

:06:32.:06:37.

I am glad they are keeping to the law because by law they have to put

:06:38.:06:41.

it on. It has been harder for some of the smaller parties too because

:06:42.:06:47.

of the speed of the election being called. We have the manifesto is

:06:48.:06:53.

coming out this week. I think Labour Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet

:06:54.:06:57.

sure when the Tories will bring bears out. I suggest one thing, it

:06:58.:07:02.

will at least for people like me bring an end to the question you

:07:03.:07:09.

will have to wait for the manifesto. And Rebecca Long baby will never

:07:10.:07:13.

have that excuse again, isn't it wonderful! She is not the only one.

:07:14.:07:23.

When you are trying to take the north and Midlands from Labour, I

:07:24.:07:28.

would go to one or the other. For me, I can barely hold back my

:07:29.:07:33.

excitement over the Tory manifesto. This will be, I think, the most

:07:34.:07:37.

important day for the British government for the next five years.

:07:38.:07:45.

That wasn't irony there? You actually meant that? I'm not even

:07:46.:07:50.

being cynical at all on Sunday Politics! This is a huge day and

:07:51.:07:58.

it's because I think we will see... I don't think Mrs May will play it

:07:59.:08:02.

safe and I don't think we will get the broadbrush stuff that she might

:08:03.:08:07.

be advised to do. I think she will lay out precisely what you want to

:08:08.:08:12.

do over the next five years and take some big risks. Then finally after a

:08:13.:08:16.

year of this guessing and theorising, we will finally work out

:08:17.:08:20.

what Mrs May is all about. She will say she doesn't want the next

:08:21.:08:23.

parliament to be all about Brexit, though she knows that's the next

:08:24.:08:27.

important thing she has to deliver in some way, so she gets a mandate

:08:28.:08:31.

for that if the polls are right but she

:08:32.:08:43.

does have very different ideas from Mr Cameron about how to run a

:08:44.:08:47.

country. She will I assume one to mandate for what these different

:08:48.:08:49.

ideas are. Otherwise there is no point in holding an early election.

:08:50.:08:52.

You will get a majority, but if you get a mandate to carry on

:08:53.:08:55.

implementing the Cameron and Osborne manifesto it would be utterly

:08:56.:08:59.

pointless. I agree, it is the pivotal event of the election and it

:09:00.:09:02.

will be interesting to see the degree to which she expands on the

:09:03.:09:06.

line which interests me about its time to look at the good that

:09:07.:09:11.

government can do. Because in a way this moves the debate on in UK

:09:12.:09:17.

politics from, from 97 the Blair Brown governments were insecure

:09:18.:09:21.

about arguing about the role of government. Cameron Osborne

:09:22.:09:25.

government similarly so, so here you have a Labour Party talking about

:09:26.:09:29.

the role of government and the state, and Tory leader apparently

:09:30.:09:33.

doing so was well. I think that will be really interesting to see whether

:09:34.:09:38.

it is fleshed out in any significant way. And it is not a natural Tory

:09:39.:09:43.

message. Harold Macmillan talked about the role of the state, Ted

:09:44.:09:51.

Heath Mark two was pretty big on the state, the industrial policy and so

:09:52.:09:55.

on, and even if it is not thought to be that Tory, does she get away with

:09:56.:10:00.

it because she deliver such a big victory if that's what she does

:10:01.:10:05.

deliver? Just inject a little note of scepticism, I wonder how much of

:10:06.:10:10.

this is authentically Theresa May. I was interested to and talk to

:10:11.:10:18.

someone who used to sit in cabinet meetings during which Theresa May

:10:19.:10:21.

never expressed an opinion on anything outside the Home Office

:10:22.:10:25.

briefs. Other ministers were roving all over their colleagues' briefs.

:10:26.:10:33.

So where are the ideas coming from? I think we can point to Nick

:10:34.:10:40.

Timothy. One of her closest advisers in Downing Street. It will be

:10:41.:10:46.

interesting to see how that evolves. On Thursday I think we will all be

:10:47.:10:52.

talking about something called Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the

:10:53.:11:01.

suburb of Birmingham where Nick Timothy comes from, who is very much

:11:02.:11:06.

Theresa May's policy brain and leading inspiration. Urdington

:11:07.:11:12.

Toryism is about connecting the party with traditional working class

:11:13.:11:16.

voters, and their belief to do that is not just taking away government

:11:17.:11:21.

out of their lives but showing them that government can actually help

:11:22.:11:25.

their lives. It can be a force for good to rebuild the trust. A lot of

:11:26.:11:37.

what Mrs May talks about is all... It is talk and then a lot of it

:11:38.:11:40.

suddenly goes by the wayside. What happened to worker directors on the

:11:41.:11:49.

boards. It is designed to appeal to that constituency and then nothing

:11:50.:11:53.

happens. She had an excuse before in the sense that it wasn't in the 2015

:11:54.:11:59.

manifesto and she had a small majority so therefore she arguably

:12:00.:12:02.

had to water down some of the stuff for example in her Tory conference

:12:03.:12:07.

speech, which had a lot of this active government material in it. If

:12:08.:12:12.

she puts it in the manifesto, it is a sign she plans to do it and will

:12:13.:12:16.

have no excuse if she then gets nervous afterwards because it will

:12:17.:12:20.

be in there. If it wasn't for Brexit, this great overwhelming

:12:21.:12:26.

issue, I think this election will be seen as quite a significant

:12:27.:12:29.

development in terms of an argument around the role of government,

:12:30.:12:34.

much-needed. But Brexit unfortunately overshadows it all. As

:12:35.:12:38.

much as we like our arguments over the role of government we will hear

:12:39.:12:42.

strong and stable, stable and strong ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely,

:12:43.:12:51.

and we heard the same old lines from the Labour Party as well so they are

:12:52.:12:56.

all at it. It will be a fascinating week, stop talking it down! Thanks

:12:57.:13:00.

to our panel. The Daily Politics will be

:13:01.:13:02.

back on BBC Two at noon I'll be back here at the same time

:13:03.:13:05.

on BBC One next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:06.:13:09.

it's the Sunday Politics. When it came to my TV habits,

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I'd watch anything... But now I can sign in online

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Andrew Neil and Tim Donovan are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.