04/05/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


04/05/2014

With Richard Moss. Andrew Neil interviews the Conservative chairman Grant Shapps and Sir Malcolm Bruce, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, on the European elections.


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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

:00:35.:00:39.

re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

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custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

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of the Troubles. That's our top story.

:00:48.:00:58.

He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

:00:59.:01:01.

electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

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Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

:01:05.:01:06.

And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

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looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook.

:01:12.:01:19.

looking party leader and the most In the North East and Cumbria, UKIP

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and Labour candidates go head to head in the studio.

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And we get the views on immigration from the Eastern Europeans living

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and full of Euro candidates here to

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debate what it means for London. And with me, as always, the best and

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the brightest political panel in the business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis

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and Janan Ganesh. They'll be throwing metaphorical rotten eggs

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into the twittersphere. First this morning - Gerry Adams,

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President of Sinn Fein, has spent a fourth night in police custody after

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he was arrested in connection with the killing of Jean McConville more

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than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has claimed that the arrest is

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politically motivated coming, as it does, during local and European

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election campaigns. Northern Ireland's deputy first minister,

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Martin McGuinness, has indicated he might review the party's support for

:02:15.:02:17.

policing in the province if Gerry Adams is charged. The Jean

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McConville murder was one of the most notorious cases of the

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Troubles. The widowed mother of ten was

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kidnapped from her home in December 1972, never to be seen alive again.

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The IRA denied involvement but in 1999 admitted it had murdered her

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and several others, known as the Disappeared. Before his death, the

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former IRA commander Brendan Hughes pointed the finger at Gerry Adams,

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claiming: In April this year, either Bell was

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charged with aiding and abetting the murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams

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has always insisted he is innocent of any part in the abduction and

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killing all burial of Mrs McConville.

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We were hoping to speak to the Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa

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Villiers, but having agreed to do an interview with us this morning, she

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pulled out. But we are joined from Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And the police just doing their job by

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questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams said publicly some time ago that he

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was available to speak to the police, but that is not what this is

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about at the moment, because what we have here is clearly evidence in our

:03:54.:03:57.

mind of political interference in what should be due process. Gerry

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Adams made it clear some time ago he wanted to speak to the police, it

:04:04.:04:07.

was available at any time, and yet that request was not taken up until

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three weeks into an election and we believe that was deliberately

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orchestrated by a small number of people. What evidence can you

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present this morning that proves that claim? The direct circumstances

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Gerry Adams finds himself in at the moment, take that in stark contrast

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when they have dealt with members of the British Army for instance...

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That is just circumstantial. The PSNI know that the soldiers involved

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in that and a number of other high-profile killings of citizens

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here, and not one of those people has been arrested. In fact any of

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the people who were interviewed were interviewed by request. There was a

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stark contrast, in terms of how they have dealt with the British military

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involving state killings. We haven't got too much time. Sinn Fein said it

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would review its support for the PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That

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sounds like political interference in the police process. It's not

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because we have a clear mandate from the people who elect us. Policing

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has been an important part of the peace process here for many years,

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Sinn Fein plays an important role in local policing partnerships. We

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negotiate to make sure we have powers transferred here to elected

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representatives in the north. It is a long way to go before we have

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policing highly accountable, and making sure they deliver a very

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impartial service. How will he react if Gerry Adams is charged? I am

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still trying to get a clear answer. If Gerry Adams is charged, will you

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withdraw support for the Northern Ireland police service? We view this

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as a serious situation and a serious ongoing situation and we will

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monitor how this pans out. We have a very important role to play to

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support the police service here. We have done consistently, worked with

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them on a daily basis, but we will not accept political interference by

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a small number of people in the police who are undermining the

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police. We will not accept political policing. If there was evidence, and

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I emphasise the word if, because we have seen none, but if there were

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evidence to justify Gerry Adams being charged, why should he not be

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charged? It is my understanding from the family of Gerry Adams that there

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has not been a single shred of evidence put forward. I understand

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that, but if there was evidence, why should he not be charged? You put

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that caveat yourself and then you expect me to speculate, there is no

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way I will do that. The fact of the matter is there hasn't been one

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single shred of evidence put to Gerry Adams in the last few days, in

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fact what has been put to him is a range of issues of newspaper

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cuttings, books, statements made from people, including from people

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who didn't want their statements released until they have died.

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who didn't want their statements was charged, again I emphasise the

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word if, does the police process fall apart? The police process is a

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fragile entity, it requires work and we have been saying this publicly

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and privately with the Irish and British

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and privately with the Irish and process has to be nurtured and

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developed. We are not out of the woods yet. From a Republican point

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of view we have been working flat out. I just wanted a quick answer to

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my question, is a yes or no? What question I asking me? Is the peace

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process in jeopardy? It is fragile and I am not going to have words put

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into my mouth but I don't want to use. It has to be worked out and

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nurtured. Thank you for joining us. Nick Watt, you were a Northern

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Ireland correspondent like myself in days gone by. Where is this going to

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go? It shows how challenging the peace process is because on the one

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hand you have the unspeakable pain of the McConville family, but you

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also have the danger of not having mechanisms to deal with the past.

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South Africa is a good example, you have to have some mechanism to deal

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with the past because if you don't, you are going to have, as Sinn Fein

:09:44.:09:52.

have now, someone in a police cell but you don't have the arrests of

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the Bloody Sunday soldiers. Paramilitary prisoners were released

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after two years... We have seen no action against somebody accused of

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the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a one-way street. We have the

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decommissioning of IRA weapons by the IRA, therefore destroying

:10:16.:10:23.

crucial evidence. You have these inconsistencies because you don't

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have an mechanism for dealing with the past, but doing that is really

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difficult because of the pain of real people. Don't you get a feeling

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that here in London they are hoping he will not be charged? Definitely

:10:38.:10:41.

because it would be nice if everything went away, but the civil

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case of the family is taken out of the hands of the police. You can see

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here a real failure in Westminster to see this as anything other than

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settled. David Cameron we know sees himself as a chairman. I was

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speaking to a friend in Northern Ireland who said he has never met

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Gerry Adams and I think this is very revealing. They consider this as a

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settled issue that will not trouble Westminster again. It would be, but

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the relatives of the disappeared don't want it to be settled. This

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points to the reality that the Belfast agreement probably had to be

:11:25.:11:30.

done, but the moral price at which it was purchased was far greater

:11:31.:11:34.

than we were willing to admit during the euphoria. For a country that

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prides itself by the rule of law to tolerate the early release of

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prisoners and former pal and military -- paramilitaries, I think

:11:47.:11:51.

was a very serious matter. As for the PSNI, it only exists because its

:11:52.:11:57.

predecessor failed to command the confidence of the nationalist

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community. It is a very big deal if even the PSNI ends up falling into

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the same trap. We have to is leave it there I'm afraid. It was the

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Conservative's local election campaign launch on Friday, and what

:12:21.:12:23.

did David Cameron focus on? Burning local issues like the state of our

:12:24.:12:26.

roads, rubbish collection or care of the elderly? No. It was Europe. The

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Prime Minister re-iterated again his promise of an in-out referendum on

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our membership of the EU in 2017. And it's being reported this morning

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that he will share a platform with Nigel Farage in a pre-general

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election debate. Here's what the UKIP leader had to say about the

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issue when he was on the Marr Show this morning with Ed Miliband. David

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Cameron very often makes these vague promises, then doesn't deliver

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afterwards. I don't think he has any intention of allowing me into any of

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these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband wants to debate? We have got to have

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the TV debates as we did join the last general election. I think David

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Cameron is doing everything he can to wriggle out of them. It is up to

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the broadcasters but whether they invite Nigel. My main desire is that

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the debates go ahead. We are joined now by Grant Shapps. Will he be

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included? The debates were not without problems, they took place

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during the campaign period and disrupted the flow of the campaign,

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taking it out of the regions, people getting to speak to the leaders so a

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longer period for that would be helpful. I think they are good idea

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and they should go ahead, but all of the negotiation about who is

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involved is yet to happen. So it is not a done deal that Nigel Farage

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will be included? That needs to be negotiated with the TV companies.

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The Conservatives believe we should have debates, but exactly the format

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and the timing, all of the -- that will be debated in the autumn, but

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first we have European elections, the Queen 's speech and a Scottish

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referendum. The local election campaign was launched on Friday. Why

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did you talk more about Europe than local councils? Both are important.

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The local elections are critically important for people, their local

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services. It is easy to forget, for example, that the council tax has

:14:51.:14:56.

been largely frozen since this Government came to power, a big

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contrast to Dublin under the previous Labour government. So why

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did you go on and on about Europe? Let me show you the poster used to

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launch your local election campaign. There it is, and in-out referendum

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on Europe, the day of the local elections, where is the word local?

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Is it in small print? I hear what you're saying, I am happy to be here

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to talk about the local elections. But you are right, they are on the

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same day, and not many people know that only by voting conservative can

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you get an in-out referendum. -- Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver,

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we can, it is the same date, so people... This was the launch of the

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local election campaign. Why does the Prime Minister have to keep on

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promising something he has already promised? The actual referendum

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would be in 2017. He promised it before, he keeps repeating it

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because he knows people don't really trust him. I think it is a question

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of the fact that, actually, unless you remind people that the pledges

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there, that the only way to get an in-out referendum is to vote for

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it, this is a critical moment at which we need people to vote for

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that referendum if they want it. It is not the case, as I saw this

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morning, being said by Nigel Farage, that a referendum was promised

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before and not delivered. There was no referendum in the last manifesto.

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There will be in the next one. There was a cast-iron guarantee, in the

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Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In

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the Sun article, he said, we will have a referendum on the Lisbon

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Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty had been passed before the general

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election, it is difficult to have a referendum on something in the past.

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We joined Europe in the 1970s, having a referendum on that! Look,

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that is about the future. Our relationship with Europe is

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absolutely critical. Most people in this country feel, I was not old

:17:18.:17:23.

enough to vote in that referendum, most of those who voted, they voted

:17:24.:17:28.

for a Common Market, that is not what we have got. We want to

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continue the work we have been doing in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do?

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They voted against it. We want more of those powers brought home, and we

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will put it to a referendum, and people will have to vote

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Conservative to get it. We have been looking at new research, almost two

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thirds of Conservative members are considering voting for UKIP, almost

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two thirds. I have a simple message here, which is this. If you vote for

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UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are likely, 30% are possible. That is

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why it is important we are making these arguments. If you vote for

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UKIP, you are voting to take us further away from returning powers

:18:19.:18:22.

to this country, further from a referendum. It is support for Ed

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Miliband becoming Prime Minister, and he will do exactly what Labour

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have always done - hand away powers, and away the rebate for nothing in

:18:32.:18:35.

return, giving Europe even more so over the day-to-day affairs in

:18:36.:18:40.

Britain. Why are so many people considering voting UKIP? It is to

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hold your feet to the fire, they do not trust you on a referendum, so

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they will vote UKIP to force you to tap in your line. We have a very

:18:49.:18:54.

tough line. If I had said four years ago that this government would

:18:55.:18:59.

manage to cut the overall EU budget, would take us out of the

:19:00.:19:03.

bailout fund that Labour got us into, passing a law that no more

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powers can go to Europe without a referendum, if I had said that,

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people would say, I do not believe it will happen. Not only have we

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done these things, we are promising and in-out referendum, and the only

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way to get it is to vote Conservative. Nigel Farage has

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said, we can't change anything in Europe, and it is no wonder that the

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president of the European Commission has said, we love having these UKIP

:19:27.:19:31.

MEPs, because they don't turn up and vote, apart from when they vote

:19:32.:19:37.

against the cut in the budget. It goes beyond UKIP in your party,

:19:38.:19:42.

because this research also showed that those Conservative members most

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likely to vote for UKIP, they said they do not feel valued or respected

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by their own leadership, and they regard David Cameron as ideological

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eat more remote from them than UKIP. What I would say is look at that

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list... Let me take that step further. What people need our series

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solutions to serious problems. When people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will

:20:12.:20:20.

say, which one of the 40% of the MEPs who got in for UKIP last time

:20:21.:20:24.

are you voting for, the ones above left or defected, the ones have gone

:20:25.:20:29.

to jail? 40% have ended up not delivering. People have a right to

:20:30.:20:33.

know what to expect when they vote in these elections. They can look at

:20:34.:20:37.

our record at home, and this goes to the point you have raised about what

:20:38.:20:42.

we have done in Britain to get this economy back on track, recover from

:20:43.:20:47.

Labour's recession. We are prepared to take those decisions in Europe as

:20:48.:20:55.

well. Presumably, active Conservative members, they know

:20:56.:20:58.

that, so why do they not feel valued by the leadership? I spend time

:20:59.:21:04.

going up and down the country meeting Conservative members, and

:21:05.:21:10.

they are on the doorstep, last weekend 150 out in Enfield

:21:11.:21:13.

campaigning for the European and local elections... Why are they keen

:21:14.:21:21.

on UKIP? When I meet somebody who says that, not necessarily a

:21:22.:21:26.

member... Have you met members of say they will vote UKIP? No, but a

:21:27.:21:36.

vote for UKIP is... Do not do it, you will end up with Labour having

:21:37.:21:42.

more control, handing away powers to Europe. 51-year-old meeting members

:21:43.:21:46.

who say they will vote UKIP, you must be out of touch. -- if you are

:21:47.:21:52.

not meeting members. Some of your members are thinking of voting UKIP.

:21:53.:21:57.

I spend huge amount of time travelling around, I just told you

:21:58.:22:01.

about this action day in Enfield, where we had an enormous turnout.

:22:02.:22:08.

Those members were on the doorsteps pointing out that you can only get

:22:09.:22:11.

reform in Europe by voting Conservative. Labour and the Lib

:22:12.:22:17.

Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't, Conservatives will. You have not got

:22:18.:22:22.

that message across, because a YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who

:22:23.:22:29.

has the best policies? Tories 18%, Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the

:22:30.:22:36.

economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP 4. Why don't you shut up about

:22:37.:22:41.

Europe and talk about the economy? Look, on the 27th of May, we have

:22:42.:22:47.

European elections, as well as local elections. If I don't talk about the

:22:48.:22:51.

European elections, you would say what you said at the beginning about

:22:52.:22:54.

not talking about the local elections! These are serious

:22:55.:22:58.

elections, and the point I am tried to make is that the issues at stake

:22:59.:23:02.

are not peripheral, they are not unimportant. Our MEPs have been

:23:03.:23:07.

battling to cut red tape from a European level on small businesses,

:23:08.:23:09.

the same thing this government has been doing for small businesses

:23:10.:23:12.

domestic league, where for example every small business owner watching

:23:13.:23:19.

this show knows they have got ?2000 back in employment announced on

:23:20.:23:22.

national insurance contributions. We are doing it at home, we are doing

:23:23.:23:25.

it in Europe, and it is important to tie that together. Ireland that Mr

:23:26.:23:30.

Cameron saying, you should stop banging on about Europe... -- I

:23:31.:23:46.

remember. This is before the last general election, as in days for the

:23:47.:23:55.

Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't win the election, and now you are

:23:56.:23:59.

only three or four points ahead, it doesn't look good for you, does it?

:24:00.:24:05.

Even then, the poll did not turn out to be what it was on the day. No,

:24:06.:24:11.

that is what happens, that is the voting intentions now! You are in a

:24:12.:24:14.

worse position than a year before the last election, which you didn't

:24:15.:24:21.

win. We are almost proving the point that you can take a clip at any

:24:22.:24:25.

moment in time, not sounding like a politician, but the only poll that

:24:26.:24:29.

matters is on the day. In just over a year's time, people will have a

:24:30.:24:35.

completely different picture to look at than these opinion polls. We have

:24:36.:24:39.

an economy from being a basket case, the great Labour recession

:24:40.:24:45.

knocking 7% of this economy, hurting every family, to a point where we

:24:46.:24:48.

the fastest-growing economy in the developed world. In a year's time, I

:24:49.:24:54.

hope people will see that we are the people who've taken the difficult

:24:55.:24:57.

decisions, got the economy to the right place, more security for you

:24:58.:25:02.

and your family. Do not give the car keys back to the people who crashed

:25:03.:25:06.

it in the first place. If I had a pound for every time I have heard

:25:07.:25:11.

that! It is clearly not getting through. On the Pfizer attempted of

:25:12.:25:17.

AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this morning for a tougher public

:25:18.:25:23.

interest test such big takeovers. Do you agree with that or not? Let me

:25:24.:25:27.

be absolutely clear, if there is any kind of joining, we are in favour of

:25:28.:25:34.

British jobs, British aren't deep, expanding our pharmaceutical sector.

:25:35.:25:44.

-- R But what Mr Mallon and wants to do with rent caps, he is

:25:45.:25:55.

anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He wants to take us back to the bad old

:25:56.:26:03.

those. -- bad old days. Should there be a bigger public interest test? We

:26:04.:26:11.

have seen some takeovers that people have criticised, but others, like

:26:12.:26:16.

Bentley, Land Rover, which have been very successful. Should there be a

:26:17.:26:21.

tougher test?! We will have tests that ensured this get-together

:26:22.:26:24.

becomes a great Anglo-American project, or it doesn't happen, but

:26:25.:26:29.

the Miliband approach is simply to be anti-business, anti-jobs and

:26:30.:26:34.

anti-job security. Grant Shapps, thank you.

:26:35.:26:38.

A challenging week for the Liberal Democrats with a local election

:26:39.:26:42.

campaign overshadowed by another row with the Conservatives about knife

:26:43.:26:46.

crime. Adam has spent the day with Nick Clegg on the campaign trail.

:26:47.:26:52.

How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on a political mini break to the

:26:53.:26:56.

Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the train. He wants to highlight what

:26:57.:27:01.

his party is doing in local government, and a personal passion

:27:02.:27:05.

of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has

:27:06.:27:09.

been running a campaign to have prunes recognised as a laxative. Is

:27:10.:27:15.

that Lib Dems battling for Britain in Europe? It is not our front page

:27:16.:27:19.

manifesto commitment! It is one of many things that Graham does, he

:27:20.:27:25.

does many other things. In fact, he is a good example of an MEP who took

:27:26.:27:32.

a pioneering role, for instance, in making sure... There is the proven

:27:33.:27:35.

world, but also the crime-fighting role. -- prune. He has done work to

:27:36.:27:43.

make sure that when British criminals flee justice, we can bring

:27:44.:27:48.

them back. And he has promoted prunes! First stop, a gorgeous

:27:49.:27:52.

country pub, but it turns out everyone is a journalist or a very

:27:53.:27:58.

on message activist. Dark days, being a Lib Dem in the last few

:27:59.:28:02.

years? Strangely not. If you find you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do

:28:03.:28:07.

not get that disheartened, because you know that, locally, you are

:28:08.:28:10.

doing so well for the people that you live next door to that,

:28:11.:28:15.

actually, I find I am almost impervious to what happens on a

:28:16.:28:20.

national level. I am mayor of Cirencester. Have you taken any

:28:21.:28:25.

leadership lessons from Nick Clegg, inspiring new in your leadership of

:28:26.:28:30.

Cirencester? I think what he has demonstrated his patience. It has

:28:31.:28:34.

been a tough time, he has taken a lot of flak, and as the mayor of a

:28:35.:28:37.

town, lots of people agree with you and a fair few don't. You are a full

:28:38.:28:44.

on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime Minister, do you outrank him? I

:28:45.:28:48.

don't think so, he is in government, I am not. So our there any normal

:28:49.:28:54.

people in here? We are from Swindon, you cannot get more

:28:55.:28:59.

abnormal. Are you a big fan of his? No! What has he done wrong? I don't

:29:00.:29:07.

believe in his views at all. Where has he got to? Nigel Farage would

:29:08.:29:14.

have had a pint! At this time in the morning a copy was more appropriate.

:29:15.:29:20.

I have no time for a drink of any kind, because now we are off to look

:29:21.:29:25.

at a local traffic blackspot. This is amazing, like a Lib Dem election

:29:26.:29:29.

leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems pointing at a road. High-vis

:29:30.:29:35.

jackets! Next we had to giggle full bath, but there will be no Regency

:29:36.:29:41.

sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is taking us to an abandoned

:29:42.:29:51.

wilderness. We have just had a health and safety briefing, we have

:29:52.:29:54.

been told to look out for dive-bombing seagulls and an angry

:29:55.:29:58.

fox. That is the sort of thing Nick Clegg has to put up with. He wants

:29:59.:30:02.

to talk about the economy but he has to dodge the day's beat new story,

:30:03.:30:10.

letters leaked by a Tory suggesting that Lib Dems are soft on knife

:30:11.:30:13.

crime. Isn't that a new kind of warfare? I just think it is silly.

:30:14.:30:23.

They may think they are clever by catching some headlines but they are

:30:24.:30:27.

not helping people who worry about knife crime, like I do. We work

:30:28.:30:38.

together... Just like the Coalition! This is a co-working

:30:39.:30:43.

space where different businesses share the same office. My time with

:30:44.:30:47.

the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing to a close. We haven't talked about

:30:48.:30:53.

the most important story of the week, that you were voted the best

:30:54.:30:56.

looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. Right,

:30:57.:31:06.

this is news to me and I can guarantee you that my scepticism of

:31:07.:31:10.

opinion polls has just been confirmed. Just as well because the

:31:11.:31:15.

more serious polls don't look great for him or his party. Goodbye, and

:31:16.:31:21.

thanks for the offer of a ride home!

:31:22.:31:28.

He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce joins us now. According to Lib Dem

:31:29.:31:32.

briefing documents, you are likely to choose -- lose a big chunk of

:31:33.:31:38.

your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what would that say about a party that

:31:39.:31:43.

boasts of its pro-Europe credentials? It would be

:31:44.:31:48.

disappointing because we have the most hard-working MEPs. The worry

:31:49.:31:56.

that we have is that people think the European Parliament is not

:31:57.:31:59.

important but it takes decisions that affect us. They would be

:32:00.:32:08.

disappointing for Britain as well as the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the

:32:09.:32:12.

problem that the more you bang on about your pro-European credentials,

:32:13.:32:18.

the more you slip in the polls? I do think so, we have two weeks to go

:32:19.:32:21.

and we are campaigning extremely hard. You are forced in the polls. I

:32:22.:32:34.

can tell you there are people out there who do believe Britain should

:32:35.:32:37.

stay in the EU and they are worried that other parties will take us out.

:32:38.:32:43.

The Liberal Democrats are clear, we want to stay in, we will work for

:32:44.:32:49.

reform and do it effectively. If you lose the Liberal Democrats,

:32:50.:32:53.

Britain's influence in Europe will be weakened. Your track record in

:32:54.:32:59.

Europe shows you have been spectacularly wrong again and again.

:33:00.:33:04.

In your 2009 manifesto you said the European Central Bank and the euro

:33:05.:33:10.

have been tried and tested over ten years providing a clear picture of

:33:11.:33:14.

the benefits of Eurozone membership and that proved to be nonsense. It

:33:15.:33:20.

was nonsense everywhere. Every developed bank in the world was

:33:21.:33:25.

tried and tested and failed. Europe may not be perfect, but the question

:33:26.:33:31.

people have to decide is if we are going to leave Europe and be

:33:32.:33:37.

isolated on RM, or use our influence to reform it from inside. We have

:33:38.:33:43.

allies, you work with them, that is something the Lib Dems do better

:33:44.:33:50.

than any other parties. Your 2004 manifesto, you claim that being

:33:51.:33:55.

outside the euro would lead to job losses and reduced prosperity. You

:33:56.:34:00.

were just plain wrong, weren't you? Yes, but the reason is that to some

:34:01.:34:06.

extent the euro did not observe any rules and regulations when it was

:34:07.:34:13.

set up. That is why we never recommended Britain should join at

:34:14.:34:18.

the outset because the criteria had not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was

:34:19.:34:26.

writing to the Financial Times... Your track record is important. He

:34:27.:34:31.

wrote that the Tisch monetary policy is not all it is cracked up to be.

:34:32.:34:36.

Britain would gain greater control over its affairs by joining the

:34:37.:34:43.

euro. How wrong can he be? We have always argued that the currency had

:34:44.:34:51.

to abide by strict criteria. It hasn't done so and that is one of

:34:52.:34:55.

the reasons it has failed. We recognise there is no future for

:34:56.:35:02.

Britain joining the euro and we are not advocating it. Lets put your

:35:03.:35:09.

2010 manifesto on the screen. I didn't say it was not our long-term

:35:10.:35:15.

interest. If Europe succeeds as an entity, if the euro becomes one of

:35:16.:35:19.

the world leading currencies, there will come a point when it may be

:35:20.:35:28.

justified. In the circumstances we are in the moment, there is no

:35:29.:35:34.

recommended timescale. Let's get this right. Despite the Eurozone

:35:35.:35:38.

crisis which has cost millions of jobs, countries that were teetering

:35:39.:35:44.

on the brink of bankruptcy, the Eurozone now facing stagnation and

:35:45.:35:48.

some countries on the brink of deflation, you still won't rule out

:35:49.:35:54.

Britain joining? We are ruling it out in the foreseeable future. You

:35:55.:35:58.

can miss the point that we are working as a coalition partner in

:35:59.:36:02.

government that has secured recovery for the UK, and working as Liberal

:36:03.:36:07.

Democrats in the parliament that have cut back the European budget in

:36:08.:36:12.

cooperation with others. What would the world look like if it were right

:36:13.:36:19.

for Britain to join the euro? You have 27 states at the moment, with

:36:20.:36:25.

too many countries still struggling to meet the criteria so until you

:36:26.:36:29.

have a strong and cohesive enough single Eurozone in which all the

:36:30.:36:33.

countries can meet that criteria, Britain is better off out. So a more

:36:34.:36:40.

centralised Eurozone, that is what you would like Britain to join? No,

:36:41.:36:46.

because it can only happen by consent. Any circumstances in which

:36:47.:36:48.

any further powers would be transferred from the UK to the EU,

:36:49.:36:57.

we would support a referendum. You have just said that for the Eurozone

:36:58.:37:01.

to work, it has to be more centralised and you said if that

:37:02.:37:06.

happens, that is what Britain would join. I didn't say that, I said it

:37:07.:37:10.

would require the consent of all member states to agree to the

:37:11.:37:18.

criteria. We certainly do not envisage joining in the foreseeable

:37:19.:37:22.

future. Since you are the proud party of in, why weren't you just

:37:23.:37:30.

give us a referendum on in or out? Because it has to have a context.

:37:31.:37:35.

What David Cameron is doing is dangerous because I think the major

:37:36.:37:40.

players like Britain and France are not keen on the idea of being

:37:41.:37:44.

bullied into reforms on the instigation of just one member state

:37:45.:37:48.

which is threatening possibility to withdraw. They will have to agree to

:37:49.:37:56.

rules... Just have it now. Do you want in or out? To have a referendum

:37:57.:38:01.

against no background is to put it out of context. We are in the middle

:38:02.:38:06.

of a crisis, a year away from the general election. We have made it

:38:07.:38:15.

clear... You said we are in the middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we

:38:16.:38:20.

are not in the middle of it? What's the middle? The reality is that the

:38:21.:38:25.

Western world has gone through a deep crisis. The UK is coming out of

:38:26.:38:30.

it, the Eurozone is coming out of it. Greece have been able to borrow

:38:31.:38:35.

on the markets in recent weeks which is a sign of success. It is in our

:38:36.:38:40.

interest is the Eurozone succeeds and recovers and we should be part

:38:41.:38:43.

of it but not necessarily on the same conditions as everyone else.

:38:44.:38:49.

The Liberal Democrats work with others to deliver Britain's

:38:50.:38:52.

interests and if they are not there, their interests will be undermined.

:38:53.:38:59.

I think a lot of people recognise say goodbye to viewers in Scotland

:39:00.:40:12.

I think a lot of people recognise that the best approach is to change

:40:13.:40:15.

our relationship with Europe, see it reformed and then give the choice to

:40:16.:40:19.

people as to whether we stay in Europe or we leave. That is a much

:40:20.:40:23.

better way to deal with the current situation because if you have an

:40:24.:40:26.

important relationship, the best thing to do is to try to fix it if

:40:27.:40:30.

it is going wrong, rather than immediately take the decision on

:40:31.:40:34.

whether to break it off. That is the Conservative view, for Labour they

:40:35.:40:37.

say there is an overwhelming economic case for staying in Europe.

:40:38.:40:40.

The Shadow Business Secretary was in Peterlee on Thursday, meeting young

:40:41.:40:46.

people. Unemployed young people. Labour's message is that leaving the

:40:47.:40:50.

EU will jeopardise jobs in the region. The debate is hotting up

:40:51.:40:53.

nicely. UKIP is making quite a lot of the pace. Jonathan Arnott,

:40:54.:40:56.

Theresa Villiers is right, isn't she? This is about relationship

:40:57.:40:59.

counselling with Europe, not about the option of divorce. The problem

:41:00.:41:02.

is that we have tried for 40 years to get reform of the European Union.

:41:03.:41:06.

It has failed. Reform requires 27 other countries all to agree. It

:41:07.:41:11.

isn't going to happen, it hasn't happened, it is time to be honest

:41:12.:41:14.

with the British people, say it is not working and accept one of two

:41:15.:41:16.

things. isn't going to happen, it hasn't

:41:17.:41:18.

happened, it is Either you take the approach that the UK should be part

:41:19.:41:21.

of Europe and accept everything, the euro and the whole shebang, or you

:41:22.:41:25.

take the UKIP position and say you want to be good neighbours with

:41:26.:41:28.

Europe, trade freely with them but not have European government. There

:41:29.:41:32.

has been some evidence your message has appealed to people. Some good

:41:33.:41:37.

pulling this week. There are three seats up for grabs in the North

:41:38.:41:43.

East. `` some good polling. What is your ambition? Looking at the

:41:44.:41:46.

opinion polls, we would be disappointed if we did not take one

:41:47.:41:50.

of those three seats. It is quite clear that across the North of

:41:51.:41:53.

England, the last few polls have showed UKIP on over 30% of the vote,

:41:54.:41:57.

one of those has had UKIP ahead of Labour. If that were true, we would

:41:58.:42:01.

take two seats in the North East. That would be the absolute ultimate

:42:02.:42:05.

dream for us, but we are certainly doing very well indeed. Just one

:42:06.:42:08.

week ago, you told me you were not seen much sign of UKIP support on

:42:09.:42:12.

the Labour doorsteps. Sticking to that? In fact, it is a kind of

:42:13.:42:15.

strange situation because we are looking at these polls which are

:42:16.:42:19.

coming out, but I think there is quite a lot of questioning about

:42:20.:42:22.

whether you can really take the polls seriously, because our

:42:23.:42:25.

experience on the doorstep is really quite different. We are getting a

:42:26.:42:28.

really warm response as Labour candidates on the doorstep. Every

:42:29.:42:31.

session, there are UKIP voters, definitely UKIP voters in the North

:42:32.:42:33.

East, they are particularly in marginal seat for Labour and people

:42:34.:42:38.

who are feeling hit and want to do a protest vote. `` marginal seats. Why

:42:39.:42:45.

then has your leaflets this week had a go at UKIP if you're not worried

:42:46.:42:49.

about them? We want to set out what UKIP is putting forward as a

:42:50.:42:54.

political party. That is important in terms of transparency. The UKIP

:42:55.:43:00.

agenda in terms of things which people hold dear in the North East

:43:01.:43:04.

needs to be exposed a little bit, like privatisation of the NHS, like

:43:05.:43:07.

scrapping workers' rights, like... That is not our policy. You're

:43:08.:43:11.

planning on scrapping maternity leave. No, we're not. It is in your

:43:12.:43:17.

manifesto, which I know you have denounced previously. It's not. They

:43:18.:43:26.

are in the manifesto. You are happy to put out leaflets on false UKIP

:43:27.:43:32.

policies. You are the party... Lower taxation for the rich. You are the

:43:33.:43:36.

party that privatised part of the NHS. These are policies which UKIP

:43:37.:43:39.

have defended in the past. Nigel Farage is on record in the European

:43:40.:43:44.

Parliament on this. We have a lot to discuss on this. The big issue for

:43:45.:43:47.

many people in these elections is immigration. Ten years ago this

:43:48.:43:50.

week, Poland joined the European Union, allowing its citizens to work

:43:51.:43:53.

and live in our region. This year Romanians and Bulgarians got the

:43:54.:43:56.

same rights. UKIP says that has lowered wages, increased the

:43:57.:43:59.

benefits bill, put services under strain. Not a view shared by many

:44:00.:44:02.

migrants, who say they are paying their taxes and doing the jobs

:44:03.:44:06.

sometimes that nobody else wants to do. We invited a UKIP candidate to

:44:07.:44:12.

meet with them. Meet Gergana Ivanova. She is a

:44:13.:44:15.

Bulgarian working in an Indian restaurant in Newcastle. It is that

:44:16.:44:19.

kind of world these days. She is also a journalism student at

:44:20.:44:21.

Sunderland University. After her studies she wants to stay in the UK.

:44:22.:44:25.

It is definitely more secure. About everything. I don't mean the free

:44:26.:44:28.

treatments, I don't mean the benefits. I mean that if you want to

:44:29.:44:38.

work, you can go out and find a job. But some think too many migrants

:44:39.:44:41.

have arrived here in the last decade, including this man, UKIP

:44:42.:44:44.

European candidate Richard Elvin, so we have invited him to meet Gergana,

:44:45.:44:48.

tell her why and explain posters like this. Our services currently

:44:49.:44:50.

can't cope, our schools, our hospitals, our housing and we feel

:44:51.:44:54.

the time has come to have a moratorium on immigration until we

:44:55.:45:02.

can put our house in order. Everyone says the migrants steal English

:45:03.:45:10.

people's jobs. We don't steal someone's job if we don't deserve

:45:11.:45:14.

it. I don't think that we infer that they steal jobs. When you have a

:45:15.:45:17.

massive oversupply of labour, it forces down the pay rates. That is

:45:18.:45:21.

one of the things we are very concerned about, it has driven down

:45:22.:45:24.

living standards. For the moment, the doors remain open to people like

:45:25.:45:28.

this man, a teacher in Romania who is working as a carer in an old

:45:29.:45:32.

people's home in Middlesbrough. But he says he is not depriving anyone

:45:33.:45:36.

of a job. In my care home, maybe more than 80% of carers are

:45:37.:45:39.

foreigners, Romanian, Thai, Chinese, Polish.

:45:40.:45:50.

It is not my, you know, my right to say this, but I think it is the

:45:51.:45:57.

truth, for me it is the truth: English people don't want these

:45:58.:46:01.

jobs. Ileana is also Romanian. She has been here 20 years. She helps

:46:02.:46:05.

new arrivals like this man find his feet. She says most migrants are

:46:06.:46:12.

desperate to work. Although he is being paid properly, she admits some

:46:13.:46:16.

may not be. I am very honest here. I know families who are working from

:46:17.:46:20.

nine o'clock in the morning until five o'clock or six o'clock for ?17

:46:21.:46:24.

per day and are still happy to be able to put food on the table

:46:25.:46:28.

because a lot of them don't have knowledge what is the minimum wage

:46:29.:46:30.

here, because of the language barrier. So they are prepared to

:46:31.:46:38.

take the jobs no matter what. Some who have been here longer might soon

:46:39.:46:41.

become employers themselves. Edyta and Margaret arrived from Poland

:46:42.:46:45.

seven years ago. Now they don't just work in this Middlesbrough cafe `

:46:46.:46:49.

they own it. We settled here very well. She is more English than

:46:50.:46:55.

Polish now. She corrects my English all the time. We bought a house

:46:56.:46:59.

here, we have made lots of friends. And now here we are, we have got our

:47:00.:47:08.

own business. The Polish community is one community who bring to your

:47:09.:47:12.

budget about 30% money above than they got from the benefits. So they

:47:13.:47:18.

pay their taxes, they have worked, so we can be proud of ourselves.

:47:19.:47:29.

Some are not convinced. This man is a UKIP voter from County Durham. He

:47:30.:47:32.

is concerned migration is stretching the services his taxes have funded.

:47:33.:47:36.

I have had very little time off work ever since I left school, I have

:47:37.:47:39.

been virtually fully employed all the way through, I have paid taxes

:47:40.:47:42.

and national insurance and everything. Other people who didn't

:47:43.:47:52.

pay into the system come in and get a free ride. I have got nothing

:47:53.:47:56.

against Romanian people or Bulgarian people. What I am saying is, we

:47:57.:47:59.

can't cope with the numbers. But just how large are those numbers?

:48:00.:48:02.

The latest figures available date from December 2012 and they suggest

:48:03.:48:06.

that at that point there were around 12,000 people from Eastern Europe

:48:07.:48:09.

living in the North East. That is less than half of one percent of the

:48:10.:48:12.

region's population. But whatever the size of that migrant community,

:48:13.:48:16.

they appear to have become a big issue in this month's European

:48:17.:48:18.

elections. Let's turn to our aspiring MEPs. How

:48:19.:48:22.

would you answer the UKIP charge that migration has lowered wages and

:48:23.:48:27.

put a strain on services? I think there is a lot of misinformation

:48:28.:48:30.

around the debate around immigration. I think nationally, not

:48:31.:48:34.

just regionally, nationally we need to have a more measured discussion

:48:35.:48:37.

about immigration and how we deal with our needs. Are they completely

:48:38.:48:45.

wrong? There is a lot of scaremongering, which feeds people's

:48:46.:48:47.

concerns, especially in a period... You heard there descriptions of

:48:48.:48:50.

Romanians working for below the minimal wage in the black market.

:48:51.:48:56.

Absolutely. That is where Labour is really focused on. We are really

:48:57.:48:59.

putting forward a political agenda which is about tackling the

:49:00.:49:03.

exploitation. Because that is abuse by employers of abusing the rights

:49:04.:49:06.

that those workers have the right to, and that certainly pulls down

:49:07.:49:10.

wages for other people. We need to enforce the minimum wage much more,

:49:11.:49:14.

that means we need more inspections, it means we need investment in

:49:15.:49:18.

infrastructure. But you are happy for people to come? We need better

:49:19.:49:21.

penalties for employers who do not pay or do not treat workers as they

:49:22.:49:29.

should. According to the law. We also need to... There are lots of

:49:30.:49:34.

issues, lots of these issues are actually national policy issues that

:49:35.:49:38.

have to be dealt with by government. We have to wait until the general

:49:39.:49:43.

election. I am going to move on. I am out of time. Jonathan Barnett,

:49:44.:49:49.

the truth is that as we saw, a lot of people in Eastern Europe are here

:49:50.:49:52.

to pay taxes and work and make a good light `` make a good life for

:49:53.:49:57.

themselves. They are contributing. In some way that is true. Research

:49:58.:50:02.

shows that for everyone and people that come into the country, of

:50:03.:50:07.

working age, it is the equivalent of 23 jobs lost in the UK as a result.

:50:08.:50:14.

There are issues there. I think what you also find is that when you have

:50:15.:50:17.

got a massive oversupply of people coming in, prepared to go jobs at

:50:18.:50:21.

minimal wage or sometimes even below, that oversupply means that it

:50:22.:50:26.

is very difficult to find a job at minimum wage. What about that man in

:50:27.:50:33.

the BT. He said in his experience British people don't want to do the

:50:34.:50:37.

job he is doing. That is a rather cynical approach to take. That is

:50:38.:50:42.

his opinion. Our experiences on the doorstep. Seeing people out of work,

:50:43.:50:47.

they are desperate to get any job they can find, they want to work.

:50:48.:50:50.

The idea that British people do not want to work is really doing the

:50:51.:50:55.

British people down anyway. We should take a much more positive

:50:56.:50:58.

approach than that. We should reward hard work. You have said that

:50:59.:51:07.

UKIP's poster campaign is part of their, in your view it is racist. I

:51:08.:51:13.

have never said that. No Labour had implied that it is inflammatory. It

:51:14.:51:22.

is scaremongering. Who is right? There is a fear factor. UKIP are

:51:23.:51:26.

playing on the politics of fear. The figures for the north`east. We have

:51:27.:51:31.

a foreign`born population of 1.7%. That includes the 0.5% of eastern

:51:32.:51:35.

Europeans. But our unemployment levels are five `` are far higher.

:51:36.:51:40.

It is not about I grant workers taking jobs from local workers. It

:51:41.:51:45.

is about not enough jobs in the north`east economy. The focus should

:51:46.:51:50.

be jobs in the economy. You might describe yourself `` you might not

:51:51.:51:55.

describe yourself as the races but it's saying that if wages are low,

:51:56.:51:58.

it is deadly migration, if services are not good, it is migration, its

:51:59.:52:04.

gear groups `` its gear mongers a community and attract racist. The

:52:05.:52:08.

problem is we have unlimited immigration from Europe. And

:52:09.:52:12.

elsewhere. You said it is costing jobs. What we should have is a

:52:13.:52:18.

system of work permits. Those people who have skills and will genuinely

:52:19.:52:21.

benefit the UK economy, who are taking jobs in areas where frankly

:52:22.:52:27.

we need the skills, those should be people who are allied to coming so

:52:28.:52:30.

we should have a clear policy that does not discriminate on whether you

:52:31.:52:34.

are from Europe not from Europe. Very briefly. The key thing to

:52:35.:52:39.

remember is that this is about a two Way St. There are 2 million Britons

:52:40.:52:46.

working in the rest of Europe are living retired or studying in the

:52:47.:52:49.

rest of Europe. There are about 2 million Europeans living and

:52:50.:52:58.

working... We have got to move on. We will never get to the truth of

:52:59.:53:02.

the figures. I am going to move on. Thank you. A new business park, a

:53:03.:53:08.

low carbon enterprise zone and a fund that helps new firms get going

:53:09.:53:12.

in Bury. Three of many projects paid for in part by European money. In

:53:13.:53:18.

the north`east, we have done well in the past and EU structural funds but

:53:19.:53:21.

with mirror poorer countries joining, we `` will we get a big

:53:22.:53:28.

share in the future? I met with the policy commissioner and asked him

:53:29.:53:30.

what he thought the impact of such spending had been in the region. If

:53:31.:53:36.

I look at the figure of the north`east, they must benefit

:53:37.:53:41.

because we have created 11,000 jobs and safeguarded more than 11,000

:53:42.:53:45.

jobs and I think we have assisted more than 30,000 `` 13,000 SMEs.

:53:46.:53:52.

What has been done in the north`east in the past is exactly what we would

:53:53.:53:55.

like to do and see all over Europe, to promote and push the economy to

:53:56.:54:02.

safeguard jobs. Argument of people like the UK Independence Party is

:54:03.:54:06.

that Britain puts millions, and that of millions of pounds into the

:54:07.:54:08.

European Union, some of that comes back to the north`east. If Britain

:54:09.:54:13.

came out of the European Union, it could keep that money and spend it

:54:14.:54:16.

anyway without patting it through a bunch of Eurocrats in Brussels. I

:54:17.:54:23.

would say the UKIP representative should ask the representatives of

:54:24.:54:26.

the regions. I know from the representatives of the regions

:54:27.:54:29.

around Europe that they are in favour of this kind of policy

:54:30.:54:33.

because this is a guarantee for them to receive money for the regional

:54:34.:54:40.

development. The additional value is that there is money provided for

:54:41.:54:45.

seven years. Which is completely different from a national budget

:54:46.:54:47.

which is usually for one, in some countries two years. Another problem

:54:48.:54:52.

is the EU is getting larger, more countries coming in from eastern

:54:53.:54:55.

Europe that are not as rich. That could lead to less money for the

:54:56.:54:58.

north`east, potentially in the future. The main task of EU policy

:54:59.:55:07.

is to reduce the disparity between regions but additional members in

:55:08.:55:11.

particular from the former communist countries, a huge market

:55:12.:55:15.

opportunity, for instance, for Britain and its companies because

:55:16.:55:20.

these are the emerging markets of Europe. Here we have significant

:55:21.:55:25.

increases of welfare level, people can consume more if there is

:55:26.:55:29.

adequate support and in that respect, Britain and British

:55:30.:55:35.

companies and British jobs are pushed by this kind of development

:55:36.:55:38.

and this is a market opportunity we should take into account also.

:55:39.:55:44.

Britain has some decisions to make in the future, there may be a

:55:45.:55:47.

referendum on whether to stay in the EU. You Do believe that a region

:55:48.:55:53.

like the north`east, a poorer region might suffer more if the UK lost the

:55:54.:55:56.

European Union perhaps than wealthier regions? If the UK would

:55:57.:56:01.

leave, it would leave also the single market. This is something

:56:02.:56:05.

which should be taken into account and this is something which has to

:56:06.:56:10.

be discussed in the British public and to balance the pros and cons and

:56:11.:56:20.

the British people have to decide. The consequences, there are a lot of

:56:21.:56:23.

consequences which would affect every part of the UK and I would say

:56:24.:56:32.

that the less developed even more than probably the more developed

:56:33.:56:36.

regions. The less`developed regions should have an interest to be part

:56:37.:56:40.

of Europe because only if you are in a big family, you can benefit from

:56:41.:56:46.

the strength of a big family. Jonathan Arnett, ?500 million came

:56:47.:56:49.

to the north`east from the EU in the last six years, another 600 Liam

:56:50.:56:54.

Payne coming in the next six years. He said, creating jobs. He would

:56:55.:56:58.

throw all that away. It is money that comes back from what we spend

:56:59.:57:01.

on the EU in the first place. Would you spend ?20 to get a ?10 Marks

:57:02.:57:06.

Spencer 's voter? The European Union expected to be grateful for the ?10

:57:07.:57:13.

voucher! It is ridiculous. This is money that is guaranteed for seven

:57:14.:57:15.

years. You send UKIP would deliver that money to the north`east,

:57:16.:57:20.

guaranteed for seven years? That doesn't make much difference whether

:57:21.:57:26.

it is seven years or five years. Is a key UKIP commitment that our share

:57:27.:57:28.

of that money will come to the north`east to help the north`east

:57:29.:57:32.

economy? That is what we're getting from the EU. UKIP offering that? We

:57:33.:57:38.

should be helping the regions. There is not a specific figure set at the

:57:39.:57:41.

moment but we should make sure that project that need to be funded are

:57:42.:57:45.

funded. Not all European Union funding is needed anyway because the

:57:46.:57:47.

money is going on things that they tell us how we must spend it. Your

:57:48.:57:54.

party got into government and good control the pot of money, you could

:57:55.:57:57.

do a lot of good in the north`east? We certainly could. Regional

:57:58.:58:02.

economic devolution is part of the Labour agenda. The EU... It is only

:58:03.:58:11.

partly paid back to us? The EU firms are not determined, the spending of

:58:12.:58:17.

those EU funds is not determined by Brussels. Those are determined

:58:18.:58:20.

locally. Currently the next seven years, like you said, it is actually

:58:21.:58:26.

?660 million for the north`east and the Tees Valley. That will be

:58:27.:58:31.

decided by local business together with other actors had that money is

:58:32.:58:37.

spent best in the region. The problem is, as we pointed out to the

:58:38.:58:40.

Commissioner, that is going to dwindle as time goes on because a

:58:41.:58:44.

lot of money is going to be funding eastern European infrastructure

:58:45.:58:46.

rather than north`east infrastructure. There are funds we

:58:47.:58:52.

get from the structural funds. Other funds we get as the region as well

:58:53.:58:56.

from the Common agricultural policy, for example, which are about

:58:57.:58:59.

investigation in the role of the economy, there are funds which come

:59:00.:59:03.

from the research budget which go into our universities and

:59:04.:59:06.

innovation. The key thing is that switching all of that money through

:59:07.:59:09.

Westminster is very dangerous for the north`east because we have seen

:59:10.:59:12.

what has happened with funding through this government. 's regional

:59:13.:59:17.

funds are a win`win in that as the Commissioner said, we get some money

:59:18.:59:21.

but they also develop Eastern European economies for British

:59:22.:59:25.

businesses. I do not see that developing economies in Eastern

:59:26.:59:28.

Europe is what UK taxpayers' money should be spent on. I don't think

:59:29.:59:32.

that is an efficient use of your taxes or my taxes. Our taxi should

:59:33.:59:39.

be used generally speaking to help people directly in the UK. `` our

:59:40.:59:44.

taxes. Where there is a case for helping foreign countries, things

:59:45.:59:47.

like natural disasters, that is the sort of thing foreign aid should be

:59:48.:59:51.

for, not to European countries. We will have to leave it there. Next

:59:52.:59:56.

week we will have Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidate in the

:59:57.:59:58.

studio and we will be talking to the Green Party. A parties contesting

:59:59.:00:03.

the elections in the north`east were three seats are up for grabs. The

:00:04.:00:08.

Northwest has fewer than 11 parties fighting it out for their eight

:00:09.:00:12.

parliament seats. You can see a full list of candidates on the BBC

:00:13.:00:14.

politics website. The details are on the screen. We may be concentrating

:00:15.:00:20.

on European matters but there has been plenty of other things going

:00:21.:00:22.

on. Including a victory for campaigners trying to make a Cumbria

:00:23.:00:25.

railway station accessible to disabled people. Here is the rest of

:00:26.:00:37.

the week's news in 60 seconds. Cumbrian MP Rory Stewart's four`year

:00:38.:00:44.

campaign to get a lift in so that is railway station in Penrith has ended

:00:45.:00:47.

in successful stop the Department for Transport is to include the work

:00:48.:00:50.

initially just round of funding to ensure access to all platforms from

:00:51.:00:56.

disabled and elderly passengers. `` for disabled and elderly passengers.

:00:57.:01:05.

One MP told a Westminster Hall debate he still had concerns about

:01:06.:01:10.

it. Their status and their prestige, I don't want that to be undermined

:01:11.:01:17.

by unlicensed taxes and the consequences of some of the things

:01:18.:01:19.

potentially that could happen if this ill thought through legislation

:01:20.:01:26.

is pushed through Parliament. Co Durham MP has called for action to

:01:27.:01:30.

save the Durham miners Gayla. A long`term future of the event has

:01:31.:01:33.

been put at risk after the Durham miners Association was landed with a

:01:34.:01:40.

?2 million legal bill. That is about it from us. We are

:01:41.:01:44.

back same time and place next week with the second of our European

:01:45.:01:47.

specials, which includes a look at some of the smaller parties will

:01:48.:01:50.

been to cause an upset. More information on what is going on in

:01:51.:01:53.

the European elections, you can go to my blog. If you live on Teessider

:01:54.:01:59.

want to hear the main parties argued out,

:02:00.:02:03.

on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,

:02:04.:02:07.

London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is

:02:08.:02:15.

not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report

:02:16.:02:19.

from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning

:02:20.:02:21.

programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,

:02:22.:02:23.

emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea

:02:24.:02:29.

leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are

:02:30.:02:33.

predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller

:02:34.:02:43.

before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of

:02:44.:02:47.

the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.

:02:48.:02:53.

But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this

:02:54.:02:58.

off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until

:02:59.:03:05.

at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I

:03:06.:03:11.

think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.

:03:12.:03:17.

Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the

:03:18.:03:25.

brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year

:03:26.:03:29.

until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze

:03:30.:03:37.

into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election

:03:38.:03:42.

in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the

:03:43.:03:50.

Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you

:03:51.:03:55.

think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.

:03:56.:04:03.

I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting

:04:04.:04:07.

on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off

:04:08.:04:15.

the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another

:04:16.:04:22.

liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in

:04:23.:04:29.

touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half

:04:30.:04:34.

of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go

:04:35.:04:38.

to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a

:04:39.:04:43.

hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go

:04:44.:04:49.

with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he

:04:50.:04:53.

has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much

:04:54.:05:01.

further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the

:05:02.:05:05.

leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David

:05:06.:05:09.

Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister

:05:10.:05:13.

as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult

:05:14.:05:17.

them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a

:05:18.:05:22.

coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal

:05:23.:05:29.

Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further

:05:30.:05:33.

away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat

:05:34.:05:41.

point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the

:05:42.:05:46.

last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did

:05:47.:05:49.

you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five

:05:50.:05:59.

formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then

:06:00.:06:07.

there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It

:06:08.:06:17.

might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If

:06:18.:06:22.

you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party

:06:23.:06:27.

should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium

:06:28.:06:33.

next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.

:06:34.:06:38.

David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they

:06:39.:06:43.

happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes

:06:44.:06:48.

they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick

:06:49.:06:54.

Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so

:06:55.:06:59.

the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas

:07:00.:07:03.

should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to

:07:04.:07:07.

do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general

:07:08.:07:11.

election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David

:07:12.:07:15.

Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week

:07:16.:07:22.

campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one

:07:23.:07:27.

debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it

:07:28.:07:30.

will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and

:07:31.:07:36.

he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are

:07:37.:07:40.

coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in

:07:41.:07:45.

the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a

:07:46.:07:51.

strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor

:07:52.:07:56.

third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come

:07:57.:08:03.

forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the

:08:04.:08:06.

media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to

:08:07.:08:09.

the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for

:08:10.:08:18.

them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.

:08:19.:08:22.

These are the most interesting elections we have had for some

:08:23.:08:29.

time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I

:08:30.:08:32.

think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we

:08:33.:08:37.

were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things

:08:38.:08:42.

down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real

:08:43.:08:47.

chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is

:08:48.:08:52.

not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he

:08:53.:08:59.

will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they

:09:00.:09:14.

come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as

:09:15.:09:21.

if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be

:09:22.:09:26.

some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the

:09:27.:09:31.

referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour

:09:32.:09:35.

sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you

:09:36.:09:39.

can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to

:09:40.:09:44.

it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad

:09:45.:09:49.

Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the

:09:50.:09:53.

renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even

:09:54.:09:57.

need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David

:09:58.:10:05.

Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local

:10:06.:10:10.

elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,

:10:11.:10:12.

at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a

:10:13.:10:20.

look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not

:10:21.:10:25.

go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.

:10:26.:10:30.

I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I

:10:31.:10:48.

haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister

:10:49.:10:51.

has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't

:10:52.:10:59.

remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly

:11:00.:11:05.

in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's

:11:06.:11:10.

questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad

:11:11.:11:15.

blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and

:11:16.:11:21.

the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the

:11:22.:11:27.

speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker

:11:28.:11:30.

who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the

:11:31.:11:35.

executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed

:11:36.:11:41.

the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the

:11:42.:11:44.

importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's

:11:45.:11:51.

chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister

:11:52.:11:57.

's questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions

:11:58.:12:01.

take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be

:12:02.:12:08.

surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is

:12:09.:12:16.

quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour

:12:17.:12:22.

activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a

:12:23.:12:27.

difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon

:12:28.:12:32.

as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and

:12:33.:12:38.

David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each

:12:39.:12:44.

other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily

:12:45.:12:51.

politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do

:12:52.:12:56.

some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of

:12:57.:13:00.

him. It is supposed to be Prime Minister 's questions. At the end of

:13:01.:13:05.

that session, the Speaker read out a statement from the Chief clerk, and

:13:06.:13:10.

immensely respected figure, saying he is taking early retirement. It is

:13:11.:13:15.

pretty clear that the reason he has decided to go early is because he is

:13:16.:13:19.

finding it tricky to maintain a cordial relationship with the

:13:20.:13:22.

speaker, and the speaker might want to think about his man management

:13:23.:13:27.

skills. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC

:13:28.:13:30.

Two at lunchtime from Tuesday onwards. Remember, it is a bank

:13:31.:13:34.

holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here at 11am next week. Remember - if

:13:35.:13:37.

it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:38.:13:42.

With Richard Moss. Andrew Neil interviews the Conservative chairman Grant Shapps and Sir Malcolm Bruce, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, on the forthcoming European elections.


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