07/05/2017 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

With just a month to go until the general election,

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

But is there still really all to play for?

And tonight we will find out who is the next

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

Here: a Tory earthquake hits politics in the North East

and Cumbria - can Labour do anything before the General Election

to stop swathes of their heartland turning blue?

elections but we are looking at the potential impact in marginals next

month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...

And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

There is a lot of new money going into it.

In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

No, it is new money going into the NHS

It's not just of course money, it's having the people

who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

successes for the Tories. But with most councils

only getting started, there was plenty of action

still to come. It's not quite the night

of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

think the election's just I think leave it

like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

winning a single seat. The joke going around

Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

and seven councils. If the result is what these

results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

five years of this. How's it been for you today?

Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

the control of a whole council came The section of England

in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

but I have one here. With the introduction

of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

because I've got some I used to present news,

as you probably know. I used to present BBC

Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

with their best local So another election results

day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

which of course means those earning more than that could

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

won its best ever local government performance,

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that

time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's

fault. We have two become more professional than we have been

recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or

another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very

rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other

promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not

until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not

have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this

current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most

senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --

no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I

believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is

shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital

mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto

launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but

also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity

bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies

that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.

Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory

advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that

Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?

It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and

have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.

When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.

Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French

Hello, and welcome to your local part of the show,

It's fair to say Conservatives right across the North East and Cumbria

this weekend will be eagerly anticipating June 8th,

after winning the Tees Valley Mayoral contest and inflicting heavy

With Ukip's vote plummeting and the Liberal Democrats failing

to make much headway, can anything now stop

With me and no doubt with views on that: Andy Macdonald,

John Stevenson - standing for the Conservatives in Carlisle.

Also with me: Newcastle East Liberal Democrat candidate Wendy Taylor.

And Chris Gallacher who will be Ukip's candidate in Redcar..

John Stevenson, I have had many a conservative on here and berated

them on the lack of progress with local elections. I can't do that,

what led to your success? We have had great success across the piste

in north-east and Cumbria but we have two remember this is local

elections, often about local issues and there are national issues

playing with local elections but more importantly there are local

things and we mustn't be complacent going to the local election --

general election. Why are we doing well quit we are offering a cohesive

national programme, a strong leader, Teresa made plays very well on the

doorstep contrasting to Jeremy Corbyn and people are looking for

competence and safety and that is coming from the Conservatives. Andy

Macdonald, something the Leyburn results -- the Labour results he

were mixed. We aren't shirking from this. We have now a fantastic

opportunity to lay out a programme before the British people to have a

different way to societally structure ourselves, we aren't about

dealing with the privileged and dodgy deals and whoever it may well

be to lie people's pockets but it's looking after everybody investing in

the health service, making sure people go away from zero hours

contracts. Those are not the signs of a strong external economy, that

is the sign of a community and economy in deep trouble and we have

to make sure we correct that and we have the opportunity to get the

message across over the next four weeks. Wendy Taylor. This is the

beginning of the Lib Dem revival? We are up in the poll nationally, up

from the last election, our membership has rocketed, we have a

number of members the highest we've ever had, we have topped the poll in

a large number of seats we are trying to get in the local action,

such as Bath and others, and we have to be reasonably optimistic. We

didn't do some well inside areas, but that wasn't everywhere, for

example, Cornwall we did very well. We have reasons to be optimistic.

Chris Gallacher, Ukip are fading in their force in a region they were

stronger in in 2014. I'm not disputing that but having said that

it is not as bad as our friends in the Labour Party. They want the odd

council seat. But we were difficult. It was a difficult issue for us,

Theresa May bigging the day perfectly from her point of view,

she knew about local elections, and knew the national agenda would be

superimposed on local agenda, and that is what been shown. We had come

in Hartlepool, a turnout of 210 Conservatives in a ward that

normally has 40, and that is why we lost that seat.

Well the most high-profile contest in the region

was to elect the so-called Metro Mayor for the Tees Valley.

Labour's Sue Jeffrey was outright favourite but Stockton

councillor Ben Houchen won it for the Conservatives

after a fiercely-fought campaign - albeit on a turn out of only

It bodes well for the party's ambitions to win target

seats like Darlington, Middlesbrough South and perhaps

even more than that at the General Election.

The scene in the Tees Valley is a political earthquake.

We're seeing a massive trend towards conservatives that's been

happening over recent years now and we're starting to turn

the Tees Valley blue, and in the coming general election

we will be focusing all of our efforts, we will be looking at five

target seats within the Tees Valley, something unheard of in the past,

and something that I personally will be fighting for and am

Ben Houchen. Andy Macdonald, this particular result was a disaster for

you. And everywhere you control four out of five councils. It goes to a

conservative. Do remember, we topped the poll in three of the five

boroughs at the first outing so that can't be in order. That said we

still have those barriers under Labour controlled, so this chap has

come along, don't know whether he wants the job in any event, but his

promises are to buy an airport that isn't for sale and his second

manifesto commitment is... You take on his points to the campaign. The

fact is he one. It was a very low turnout and people aren't in love

with the concept with Metro males. That is a good thing,

notwithstanding the result. It is excellent we have powers devolved to

the Tees Valley so we can push our wheat and we can do it. -- pull our

weight. He is there for three years, he can occupy it for 36 months and

then we will take it off him. Do you accept that on this result is that

the more widely, politicians on the night am sure dead, places like

Darlington and Ms Aruba south are likely to spread further than that.

We are talking about Alex chinaman in Stockton Heath. -- Alex

Cunningham. We have the opportunity to show the British people to do

this better. You must be panicking in those seats? Candidates are

infused by the wealth of resources and absolute enthusiasm for tens and

tens of Labour supporters coming out. We have fantastic campaigning

this is the opportunity of a this is the opportunity of a

lifetime for the country to be in a better direction and it is now.

Chris Gallacher, you trailed in a poor fourth of your party, you would

have been pushing the Labour rather have been pushing the Labour rather

than a Conservatives a few years ago? We put as much effort in as we

want to. We didn't put a great deal in however, and not agreeing with

the whole concept of it. Hence the low turnout. Nobody wanted this

mayor. Why bother standing? The candidate was saying how the

election should have got rid of the post, the referendum. That was his

agenda, and that is what he went on. Everyone said, but we now have a

Conservative, identifying the real problem of Tayside, albeit in a

spurious way. The airport is fundamental to the growth of the

that is the point that people voted that is the point that people voted

for and that is what they are going to get. John Stevenson, Tees Valley

mayoral election. A bit of a one-off, wasn't it but at Ben Hatch

and's pledge on the airport may well have won it but it is impossible to

read the ruins. First of all I am read the ruins. First of all I am

delighted to hear of his support for the concept, I think it is a

positive thing and a good thing. Our perspective. We were delighted to

win there, demonstrates Conservatives can win anywhere in

this country, we aren't the party of the north in the past, but that has

changed. I want to see these mayors spread across the north of England,

and importantly I want to see Conservatives everywhere. Where are

you going to buy the airport from then? How's that going to come into

Valley ownership? It is just a deceit. It is an interesting... It's

not for sale. 21% turnout doesn't suggest public enthusiasm for this

role, it? All politicians have been disappointed by the turnout, it was

much lower than we've had hoped, but mayors have become a familiar part

establishment and I think people establishment and I think people

will support them, and in local government generally we do see 30,

35, 40% turnout. We want higher and I fully except it is important we

get higher turnout. Lib Dems were third, was there anything for you at

competition where we are fighting to competition where we are fighting to

close candidates, we were squeezed, but there is no reason why we should

not get heart from the results, 12%. We know that Theresa May is on the

verge of getting a large majority but we had to persuade Labour voters

in Berwick and Redcar that we are the challenges, we have held the

seat before, we know how to do it and... You are supposed to be part

of a progressive alliance. You are taking votes away from Labour. We

believe we can be an effective opposition which the Labour Party

aren't at the moment. You are the best chance of getting Tories into

power! That is exactly what happened in Tees Valley, you know it. The

reason Tories have done well is because they have begun the

blue-collar party. They have taken almost all the Ukip votes and that

is obviously a worry for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats but think

we can we make good progress, a chance of regaining Redcar, and

Berwick, and that is what we are fighting to do. We have fought about

this airport Pledge but will cancel leaders back Ben Houchen, there are

five sitting alongside him on Labour, they could frustrate him. If

they can tell me how he can get them. It is a hollow claim, you

can't do it. We asked the question on the floor of the House of Commons

and the secretary of state asked him is this Tory policy, and he said

absolutely and utterly not and you have a Tory candidate deceiving the

public and coming along and deceiving them public. I would put

millions on it, it's never going to happen. Labour members on the board,

it is a real holding place... We aren't going to discuss this

airport. Well, let's take a closer look now

at the local election results, and right across the region

the Tories made big gains, even in the previously rock solid

Labour territory of County Durham In Cumbria the Conservative took 12

seats - including one held by their Copeland General Election

candidate Gillian Troughton. While in Northumberland

there was an 11 per cent swing from Labour to Conservative,

with the Tories only just Conservatives said that reflected

deep dissatisfaction among Labour I think there is a very definite

message here which is very definitely they don't like

Northumberland county council and the way it's run by

the Labour Party, but I cannot stress enough Jeremy

Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep. There was some relief for Labour

in a strong performance in North Tyneside where the mayor

Norma Redfearn was re-elected and increased her majority

with more than half the vote. But the scale of the losses

across the region - just four weeks before

the General Election - Those loyal to Jeremy Corbyn blamed

party divisions and a failure by MPs I think the Labour Party's been

split for a while now and that's been the trouble,

and people don't like to and I think MPs in Westminster have

got a lot to answer for as well. Because they've never chip backed

Jeremy Corbyn, they should have backed him, if they had have backed

him and the ten point plan he had, it would have been

a different results today. Well Labour disappointment

was matched by Ukip and the Liberal Democrats with both

parties failing to make The Lib Dems lost seats

in Northumberland - while Ukip in Cumbria denied

the party was in a state I think this has been a poor turnout

which hasn't helped. I think with the general

election close on the heels of it is well means that

people are voting tactically, I think, really, so I think there's

still lots to play for in the general election and we just

going to have to put everything into that and just go

for it, really. Andy Macdonald, let's talk about

Durham for a minute. There was no pledge made about airports there.

Solid Labour seats, solid Labour areas which were lost.

Chester-le-Street, Sedgefield Stephen, what is happening. There

was with something to play for and the resource could be a difference

between local and general elections. We have a leader he vilified

constantly and when a man comes along who wants to treat people like

they should be treated, he has been vilified. He has been vilified by

members of your own party as well. 100 cent of our candidates should be

behind the programme that we will set out. We are not a... We aren't a

presidential system but a parliamentary democracy. A lot of

those seats it could have been anyone but Labour, it was the

independence, the north-east party, the Liberal Democrats... Anyone but

Labour, you are reading from Liberal Democrat leaflets. We have to see

Norma Redfearn returned as mayor. We have great successes in Manchester

and liveable across the north of England and Wales was not the

cataclysmic think that many expected apparently. Wendy Taylor,

Northumberland, your party lost eight councils including in the

Berwick area you say you are targeting. They are very much local

issues. The position in county hall is quite difficult and we did well

in Durham, we gained five seats in Durham, on all the parish council

seat in Durham, the results were neutral across the area. Even in

targeted seats. We are the only party to say that if you want to

have better services we are going to have to pay more tax. We are looking

at other things from Brett said, and I think in this election and others

have been focusing only on that. Tim Farron has been not really talking

about it, you think that will persuade enough people to come over

to you? I think it is really early days, and thank that our message has

been built on. What we have to stop is the landslide victory for the

Tories. Theresia Mae is acting as though she wants a coronation rather

than election, not speaking to the public, invited people only at

meetings, refusing to do a TV debate. We have to say that the

landslide for the Tories will not be the right thing. We have excellent

policies on health, climate change, things that should be very popular

at a election. No councils the is at the local elections. Label are

hanging on in Hartlepool. Is it the beginning of the end? Your chairman

has as they do the Conservatives, and probably Ukip should just do

that. The media have been writing the bedroom for Ukip since the

referendum. We are still here, and people need to remember that we are

the party that are 100% behind exit, we brought it on to the table, we

forced the issue and we won the day. That cuts no ice at the moment. This

is rapidly becoming a Brexit referendum against things to Theresa

May. The agenda is being pushed and policy has been buried under Brexit.

But that is what you wanted? That is the point, she doesn't want to do

that, but it is a conversion of all parties right now who were pro the

EU, and there was only one party who fought for that in the streets. Can

you win seats in the north east in the parliamentary election? Yes.

Where? Redcar. Which is where you're standing? Yes. To conservatives. In

Cumbria you didn't really gain anywhere. We didn't expect to do. I

think we are doing well, well placed for the 8th of June, I have always

represented a marginal seat and I've write it in that way and always

continue to do so. I genuinely think that the people of the

receptive to us and our message. Is receptive to us and our message. Is

your party now looking seriously at the north? Previously they had not

put much effort in there. We are going to try to fight all seats,

candidates everywhere, and put candidates everywhere, and put

resources into places where we think the best possibilities are. Cumbria

is always sifting towards the Conservatives, it did in 2010, we

want Copeland recently, so we have the chance to take the fight to

Labour, but we aren't complacent and we had persuade people. Sedgefield.

Tony Blair's seat. Are you targeting that? I am concentrating on Cumbria.

Seats of a 6000, even 10,000 majority of a vulnerable? You would

have to ask Labour. We want to maximise the boat ride across the

country, we have a strong leader and this country is wedged it for

Conservative rule. With Sedgefield at risk, Harry had meetings since

Friday about how to respond to this in the regional Labour Party? We

fight tooth and sell for every single vote in every constituency.

We are a national party, and not in the business of saying that we are

targeting places. You know full well that more resources go into likely

seats. We are going to fight for every seat in the north of England.

There is a strong candidate in each and every one of them and we are

going for every vote, and to think otherwise, is ridiculous was up the

British public will decide, we went to sit and say which seats are going

which way can we have an election and it is therefore people to do

that. They are now the third party in Scotland. This is a fundamental

problem. You said you are a national party and I'm not convinced. We are

660,000 people in our party, the biggest political union. We are the

biggest movement in Europe. I have spoken to Labour candidates, you

have two, some campaigning on the basis that say, look, forgets Jeremy

Corbyn, he's not and we promised because they know that's the only

way they can hope to win. We aren't absolutely not going to give in to

the vilification and condemnation and personal abuse of a single man.

A single nasty word has never been said by that man, a man of integrity

and deep principle. Yours BOOING Policies are going to be laid

cleared for the north, and they will be reminded of the values of this

man. You know that there are candidates who say that look at my

local record as an MP, not about the national policies. Why would they

not stand proudly behind their record as an excellent MP? Of course

they will based on that. This is what a Labour government will

deliver to our country, investing in education... I know he wants to move

on but you never talk about the policies of education, health,

prosperity, zero hours contracts, these are the things that the Labour

Party will champion. Chris Gallacher, we still have no idea who

your candidate is, your top target, no list of candidates from any other

seats in a URL is only Redcar, the regional chairman goes to the

Tories, it is chaos. I don't think so. We have 24 seats already

nominated with candidates not 29. That's pretty good. Hartlepool is

your top seat, and as far as I can see it as a round about selection. I

am talking about tomorrow. I thought it was Wednesday. Given Thursday

wasn't great, what will spark a Liberal Democrat revival? It will be

our policies, and we are the policy that is going to be the effective

opposition. We certainly need that, the Brexit negotiations are going

well we are told we have a strong leader, but so was Margaret Thatcher

and look what she did to the north. How will you re-wind power? We

concentrate on 's domestic policies and how we can actually improve

daily lives. We need to look at what the Tories are doing, delivering

their tax breaks for their friends and the rich. It is in their DNA and

they are not about working people. Is this a strong and stable

government? I think it is the case we have a strong leader and not a

toxic person. This is standard story nonsense. We have to finish.

And that's it from us after a remarkable week in politics.

If nothing else we've learned what a "straw poll" is!

Here's the moment the Conservatives were denied an outright

majority in Northumberland - by the choosing of straws -

obtained from the canteen at Hexham leisure centre.

I did it! Yay!

We're back same time, same place next Sunday.

housing associations and investment, but we have run out of time, thank

you. Andrew. Four weeks to go until polling day

on the 8th of June, what will the party strategies be for the

remaining four weeks? Let's begin with the Conservatives. Do they just

try to continue to play it safe for four weeks? Yes, with this important

qualification. Theresa May Corp this election to get her own personal

mandate partly, partly because she thought she would win big but to get

her own personal mandate. Therefore, she needs to define it. In her own

interests and to do with accountability to the country. So

clearly, they will not take risks when they are so far ahead in the

polls. What they do say in the manifesto matters in

terms of the space that she has in the coming years to define her

leadership against David Cameron 's. She is a free figure, partly on the

basis of what she says as to how big she wins. They cannot just play it

safe and repeat their mantra of strong and stable leadership, if she

is going to claim her own mandate, they need the top policy? Yes, and

what is unusual about this is that the manifesto matters far more

because of what they need to do with it afterwards, than in terms of

whether it is going to win anybody over now. Clearly, the strategy is

yes, we do have two layout out a few things, there are interesting

debates as to whether, for example, they will still commit to this

ambition of reducing immigration to the tens of thousands, we do not

know the answer yet. It is a question on whether she is setting

herself up for difficulties later on. It will be a short manifesto, I

would venture to guess? It is in her interests to be as noncommittal as

possible, that argues for a short manifesto but what does strike me

about the Conservative campaign, aside from the ambiguity on policy,

is how personal it is. I think Theresa May, in her most recent

speech, referred to "My local candidates", rather than

Parliamentary candidates, very much framing it as a presidential

candidate in France or the USA. Not a rational on her part. Everything I

hear from the MPs on the ground and the focus groups being done by the

parties, is that a big chunk of the population personally identify with

her. If you can wrap up Middle England into a physical object and

embody it in a person, it would be her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's

unpopularity accounts for a big slice of her popularity, she has

done a good job of bonding with the public. We never saw that coming!

But you may well be right. That is happening now. Labour say it wants

the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell to play a more prominent role in the

Labour campaign, he was on The Andrew Marr Show this morning and he

was asked if he was a Marxist, he denied that he was. It surprised me

as I had seen tape from before saying that he was proud of it.

Let's look now and then. Are you a Marxist? I believe that there is a

lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe that there is a lot to learn from

reading capital, that is recommended not only by me but measuring

economists as well. I also believe that in the long tradition of the

Labour Party... We need to demand systemic change. I am a Marxist.

This is a classic crisis of the economy. A capitalist crisis. I've

been waiting for this for a generation! That was from about four

years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist, yes, I am a Marxist... I've been

waiting for the Marxist revolution my whole life... Does this kind of

thing matter? Yes, but in fairness, I think he is a really good

interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have untested figures in a national

campaign. None have ever been exposed at any level to a national

media campaign that they are about to experience. He is the best

interviewee. In fairness to him, when he gave that clip four years

ago, I bet he never dream that he would be in a senior front bench

position. But the background is clear. They are of the left, and I

think they would all have described it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done,

he is close to being like Tony Benn. There are about four Labour campaign

is being fought in this election. Their campaign, the old Shadow

Cabinet, campaigning in constituencies, but not identifying

with that campaign. There is the former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is

it damaging? I think so, if they could be damaged any further, I

could see all of the Labour MPs with their heads in their hands. What I

am hearing from Labour MPs is that there is not one of them who do not

feel that they have a horrendous battle on their hands. These will be

very individual local campaigns, where local MPs are winning despite

the party leadership and not because of it. Already, talk is turning to

what happens next. Is there anyway that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a

horrendous set of general election results as many anticipate, may stay

on all the same? It is not clear that even if the polls are right,

that Mr Corbyn will go? John McDonnell implied it might not be

the case but previously, he said it would be. What do you make of

reports that the Labour strategy is not, I cannot quite believe I am

saying this, not to win seats but maximise a share of the vote. If

they do better than Ed Miliband with 30.5% of the vote, they believe they

live to fight another day? Yes, it reminded me of Tony Benn's speech

after the 1983 election where they said as bad as the Parliamentary

defeat was there were 8 million votes for socialism. A big section

of public opinion voted for that manifesto. I wonder whether that is

Corbyn's supporters best chance of holding onto power. Whether they can

say that those votes are a platform on which we can build. That said,

even moderate Labour MPs and desperate for a quick leadership

contest. I hear a lot of them say that they would like to leave it for

one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as an acting Labour leader. He would

still have a mandate. Give the top party a chance to regroup and get

rid of some of its problems and decide where it stands on policy.

Most importantly, for potential candidates to show what they are

made of, rather than lurching straight into an Yvette Cooper

Coronation. 30 seconds on the Liberal Democrats, their strategy

was to mop up the Remain vote. Uncertain about the Brexit party in

demise. Ukip. The remain as have a dilemma, the little Democrats are

not a strong enough vessel with 89 MPs to risk all ongoing for them --

the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not know where they stand on Brexit.

There is not a robust alternative vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit

Conservative Party. At the moment. Four weeks to go, but not for

France... France has been voting since early

this morning, and we should get a first estimate of who will be

the country's next President Just to warn you there are some

flashing images coming up. The choice in France

is between a centre-left liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron

and a right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen - both have been

casting their votes this morning. The two candidates topped

a field of 11 presidential hopefuls in the first

round of elections last month. The campaign has been marked

by its unpredictability, and in a final twist on Friday

evening, just before campaigning officially ended,

Mr Macron's En Marche! group said it had been the victim

of a "massive" hack, with a trove of documents

released online. The Macron team said real documents

were mixed up with fake ones, and electoral authorities warned

media and the public that spreading details of the leaks would breach

strict election rules. I'm joined now from

Paris by the journalist As I left Paris recently, everybody

told me that there was the consensus that Mr Macron would win, and win

pretty comfortable you. Is there any reason to doubt that? -- pretty

comfortably. I don't think so, there have been so many people left and

right, former candidates who have decided that it was more important

to vote for Macron, even if it was agreed with him, then run the risk

of having Marine Le Pen as president. I think the spread is now

20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le Pen. So outside of the margin of

error that it would take something huge for this to be observed. If the

polls are right and Mr Macron wins, he has to put together a government,

and in May there is a Coronation, then he faces parliamentary

elections in June and could face a fractured parliament where he does

not have a clear majority for his reforms. He could then faced

difficulties in getting his programme through? I think that

right now, with how things are looking, considering you have one

half of the Republican party, the Conservative Party, they are making

clear sides, not only that they want to support Macron but are supporting

him actively. It means looking at the equivalent of the German party,

the great coalition. Depending on how many seats established parties

keep in the house committee may very well have a Republican Prime

Minister, rather than having an adversarial MP, he may have someone

who is relatively unknown outside of France, and a young woman. Contended

that lost the Parez mayorship three years ago. She is a scientist and

has been secretary of state. She would be an interesting coalition

Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le Pen, if she goes down to defeat a

night, does she have the stomach and ambition, and the energy, to try it

all again in 2022? She has all of that. The question is, would they

let her? How badly would she lose? Her niece, now 27, a hard-working

and steady person, unlike Marine Le Pen, who flunked her do paid --

debate, her niece may decide that 2022 is her turn. Yet another Le

Pen! All right, we will see. Just five years to wait, but only a few

hours until the results of the election tonight.

And we will get the exit polls here on the BBC. Given the exit polls

will give as a pretty fair indication of what the result is

going to be tonight. That will be on BBC news. That's all for today.

The Daily Politics will cover every turn of this election campaign,

And we're back here on BBC One at our usual time Next Sunday.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

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