14/05/2017 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.


Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes


in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -


Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax


to fund public services, but will traders just


Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,


insists he can win this election - so which way will


We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.


Here: Labour hits back after the Prime Minister accuses


Jeremy Corbyn of abandoning the North East's working-class voters.


But have the Conservatives really won


and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air


pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically


selected focus group of political pundits -


they're not so much undecided as clueless -


Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting


throughout the programme. So, we've got two new


policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce


a financial transaction tax if they win the general election


and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax


avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work


with local authorities in England to build council houses


with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy


"will help thousands of people get on the first rung


of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I


have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in


pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as


literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the


Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it


framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a


sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a


narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an


argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour


government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said


right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a


housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit


George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get


house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it


works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes


sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa


May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly


these two announcements have something in common which is that


over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.


Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't


agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like


a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might


become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is


difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what


looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase


orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will


change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market


value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily


with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both


would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and


traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then


councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the


city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the


Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is


talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now


Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is


the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most


interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC


correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't


worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising


it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the


macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very


well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.


Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.


But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -


that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media


Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra


?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social


care over the lifetime of the next parliament,


as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over


The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,


although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious


about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence


and security review immediately after the election.


In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable


management of migration", but it will not make "false


Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,


and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises


for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.


The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail


and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one


A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics


as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss


about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates


told us they thought it had been deliberately


leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting


the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"


And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,


Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise


the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out


rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the


railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three


Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to


comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what


is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will


nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking


the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail


will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail


until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound


very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National


Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to


nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you


will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the


National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just


have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is


it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that


costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I


would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform


the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority


stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion


in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for


reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not


going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the


distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising


the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on


Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent


years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in


answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for


nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the


energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big


six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to


be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,


you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with


the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty


to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The


Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British


taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a


long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a


key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in


our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households


ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal


providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John


McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top


of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You


will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years


after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing


75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of


capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our


financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a


state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we


won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.


How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75


billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500


billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure


that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a


figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial


competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the


CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250


billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the


fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a


proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have


just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will


ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the


parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state


than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will


ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came


to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft


manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going


to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps


we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for


corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your


predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end


of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their


behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or


they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to


make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and


costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.


We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes


in market activity because that would be approved and direction to


take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United


States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are


already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,


if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number


of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in


the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting


corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business


investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent


years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in


things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce


the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the


Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the


proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can


invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.


Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in


?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a


year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so


what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it


increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about


cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to


thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are


industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate


businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if


we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am


not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business


tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to


thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on


business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own


labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not


want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding


with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing


global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.


Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't


cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought


in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has


changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that


change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a


lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We


need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the


computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other


countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what


other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at


introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will


be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at


the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in


2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are


going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which


generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a


significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied


at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the


instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.


This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in


terms of financial services because there is more to keep these


businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the


economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we


will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.


And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.


Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower


than international standards, so why are so many global companies who


make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of


the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not


answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the


important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it


encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may


say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.


But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and


did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading


internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our


partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than


they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,


alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the


people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the


corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and


more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a


number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been


able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the


changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British


companies, not from these international companies. It is


because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good


thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack


down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused


to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by


cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking


down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap


is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.


It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have


brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax


schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone


from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the


Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money


on these companies while still having a competitive rate to


encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to


prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on


average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms


by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it


that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,


Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual


income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,


people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep


emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years


and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.


Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.


There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.


1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their


careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,


investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,


companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities


that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about


hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than


they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives


have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has


shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of


?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions


kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one


law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of


all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare


and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people


in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that


allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket


to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,


among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as


we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen


millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these


questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just


about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and


below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We


have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone


up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages


will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for


housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,


social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the


associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4


billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you


get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local


authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.


I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at


100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at


you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the


local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is


what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the


money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the


expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the


housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how


many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on


it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what


the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities


who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.


What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,


they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,


the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with


them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I


want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what


the target and timescale is, and this government, under which


affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million


families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your


record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what


we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a


strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This


is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,


75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.


That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the


industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in


2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000


affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.


So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have


delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour


did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,


working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in


their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit


of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those


around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got


three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those


fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation


YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders


will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters


of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home


to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited


from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't


decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,


two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up


political press at Downing Street under David Cameron


and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron


and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself


as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it


came about who you want,


if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus


groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,


even though some of those same people have been saying we quite


like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's


going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive


manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,


that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that


you don't recognise? After a little warm up,


the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong


woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,


when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,


here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what


are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,


it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's


actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership


in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's


the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one


for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad


as strong and stable, but it will probably get


on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today


and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my


question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,


we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table


at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,


we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control


and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought


he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,


hovering around, skirting around and that's the second


time I've seen a similar interview with the question


being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have


any confidence with him You think you are going up


against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand


up for us? When you are in negotiations,


you need to be tough. And actually is right


to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing


something for the country. There's a reason for talking


about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future


of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen


to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show


and in the news. She attracts the public better


than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question


in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa


May is an animal. So, in your minds,


what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think


she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's


superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies


are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak


and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch


you by surprise if you're What do you take away


from what you saw then, and what message would you send back


to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see


Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,


but you don't need to be liked to be elected,


because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future


and your security. I think what I also take out


of that focus group, was it was a group of floating


voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no


huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ


would be stick to the plan. I thought the response


to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't


particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her


about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party


want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks


that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,


what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise


the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform


out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those


characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be


over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact


that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go


into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American


political consultant For the sake of this discussion,


assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for


Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious


collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether


you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where


they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to


watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more


substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality


and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because


Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see


on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language


she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't


see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her


campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy


because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary


Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,


the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I


was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC


had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can


assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had


but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other


than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you


will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour


will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of


number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of


soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable


majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British


people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will


have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice


of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British


politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there


is still a significant percentage of the British population that once


someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.


I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and


I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a


population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.


It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.


We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now


Hello and welcome to your local part of the show -


live from Newcastle - in the week the Prime Minister came


to the North East and claimed Labour's leadership was abandoning


Labour's campaign co-ordinator and Wansbeck candidate Ian Lavery -


working-class to his core - will no doubt have plenty


Also with me this week: Fiona Mills who's standing for Ukip


in Carlisle, Simon Clarke - who's aiming to take the marginal


seat of Middlesbrough South for the Conservatives, and Julie Porksen


who's trying to win back Berwick for the Liberal Democrats.


Also coming up: We're in County Durham with the first


of our films looking at the big issues of


Let's start though with that visit to the North East


The Prime Minister had a message to working-class voters and she went


deep into Labour territory in North Shields to deliver it.


In a visit that also included brief stops


in Northumberland and Darlington, she said Jeremy Corbyn didn't


Millions of people here in the north-east of England


and across our country have loyally given their support to


We respect that parents and grandparents


taught their children and


grandchildren that Labour was a party that


shared their values and


But across the country today traditional


Labour supporters are increasingly looking at what Jeremy Corbyn


He, I'm sure you will scoff at the talk of taking working-class Labour


votes. She wants is secretly into an airfield miles away from anywhere to


an invited audience of 20 to 25 invited people without speaking and


listening to ordinary working class people and then being moved to North


Shields, somewhere that the Tories tried to close down 13 years ago to


an invited audience. This is an insult to the people of the


north-east. It is the ultimate insult for a Prime Minister to waltz


into this area and not speak to anybody other than invited guests


and claim to be a champion of the workers. They shouldn't take the


voters of this region as fools and I'm sure they are not. Let's put


that point assignment. -- to Simon. If she is so keen on appealing to


these voters why should not talking to any? I imagine the doorstep Day


in and day out. The number of conversations I have with photos


that begin with I have always voted Labour backed is quite striking. --


but... She is taking questions day in and day out. From party


activists. From journalists. What I see in community and community


across the area and rural and urban areas as well is that people are out


fed up with a complacent labour establishment which is totally out


of tune with them. Ian, you must have heard from Labour candidates in


the doorstep who have heard of some voters wanted to go Theresa May. I


haven't heard anyone say to me that they will be turning from the Labour


Party. Even in the marginal constituencies such assignments? --


as Simon? When I have been on the doorstep that has not been anybody


who said that to me. Not one. That suggest the polls are wrong. It


would be the first time. What might convince the voters of some more


sincerity for the Prime Minister is word of some investment? The


platform is not about making big announcements but delivering strong


and stable leadership. We're not in the business of promising money like


sweeties like the Labour Party. We are about making sure that as a


credible programme for jobs and growth. Unemployment in the


north-east is down sharply since 2010. The strong and stable stand by


it. Don't hold on for investment. -- sound bite. People want credible


Government for serious times and we are providing that. Fiona Mills,


these traditional Labour voters Theresa May is appealing to other


very people recruited to Ukip and flooding away from you? She is right


that the Labour Party don't represent the traditional working


class people in a morbid Ukip two. Voters tell me I can't possibly vote


Conservative but I will vote Ukip. The reason that Labour voters might


ford Conservative this time is to get Brexit and no other reason. --


vote. Julie is this not a problem in Berwick where conservatives may


shore up the boat but people will be put off by Labour who want to see


Brexit happen? Brexit has hardly come up on the doorstep and I had


been out and about. I meet a lot of people say I have always voted


Labour but I really need to defeat the Tories. The other clueless


Government we have had a long time. -- the most cruel Government. You


don't hear anyone saying I want Brexit so I'm not voting Liberal


Democrat? And maximum I have met one day. I have also met a lot of


conservatives who are really crossed that the Conservative MP did not


tell anybody that she was Brexit here before standing in 2015. It


will affect rural areas are significantly. Let's talk about who


will be standing. Now, let's talk about who'll be


standing in the General Election - Nominations have closed


and Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats


are fielding a full slate of candidates in all 39


constituencies across Cumbria But there's been some


informal deals done The Greens won't be standing


in Carlisle, Copeland, Workington, Bishop Auckland or Hartlepool


in the hope of consolidating the Labour vote - and stopping


a Conservative landslide. has decided not to stand in seats


where they believe there's another That includes Blyth Valley,


Berwick and Middlesbrough South. I am the only candidate in the seat


we did a back Brexit. I think Fiona and I would be as one that we remain


very distinct parties with very distinct agendas. The Ukip agenda is


not mine. There has been no deal done and as far as I'm aware Ukip


couldn't find a candidate to feel. -- field. In some of the seats are


you saying we will leave it to the Conservatives? Ukip puts country


sitting MP who was a Brexit MP and sitting MP who was a Brexit MP and


campaign to leave we will not oppose them. In Stockton South the


candidate put a referendum bill in Parliament. I am standing in


who was for remain and I don't think who was for remain and I don't think


his heart was fully in it. I think it was along party lines. In the


north-east you're fielding 26 candidates, 25 men and one woman.


Whether the woman? Are they behind the fridge? We have two women can do


Cumbria. We don't have all women short list for other parties do. It


is absolutely true merit. Through merit there is only one woman? There


must of been. We do not discriminate. Should you not have


followed the green example, Julie? In Bishop Auckland and Hartlepool


Labour could lose because the Liberal Democrats could peel off


from Labour? We are really pleased that Caroline Lucas in Brighton has


been spotted. It is madness if you want to stop Brexit. I think what is


really important is that we have strong individuals representing


local areas and key issues and that is why we are really pleased that


Caroline Lucas will hopefully when Brighton. I am in force interested


in Brighton, I have to tell you. Ian, you have a full list of


candidates not all of them are running the local campaigns. I'm


looking at a leaflet by a candidate and it does not mention she's a


Labour candidate. We are standing candidates in every constituency.


That is really important. There are no deals being done


behind-the-scenes to let one party have an advantage. We're looking at


every vote in every town and in this country to stop some of them are


looking for every bought by making sure it is a personal vote for them


and not to mention Jeremy Corbyn on even the Labour Party. I have been


campaigning since I was a young boy and different people camping in


different ways. The two different things on the leaflet. Some include


some things and some others. That is the nature of the game. Things have


not changed in that. But the reason why these deals are being done with


Ukip and the Conservatives, quite obvious that has been a lot of deals


done with them, is because Theresa May has taken the Conservative Party


that far to the right and the one of the party with Ukip. I disagree


completely. We have an excellent manifesto which is much better than


the conservative one. I will be sending it off in London on


Wednesday. Completely severed parties. One thing that hasn't


changed about the conservative is a bunch of southern candidates in


northern seats. Hastings and Chelsea and Westminster. We have a strong


slate of north-east candidates and I grew up in Middlesbrough in the


constituency I am representing. In terms of my fellow candidates, Jacob


Young is from Middlesbrough and Peter Gibson in Redcar grew up


there. The idea that Peter Mandelson was from Hartlepool or Tony Blair


was from Sedgefield, it's about getting the right person for the


right job. Now: Labour said this week they want


a "Brexit for Jobs" - And where will the new jobs


of the future come from? Our reporter David Macmillan has


been to the constituency of Sedgefield in County Durham


to try and find out.. It's a prize all our


politicians are chasing. A world-famous company creating jobs


and investing millions in their patch, In the


Sedgefield constituency This constituency was made famous


by its former MP Tony Blair, who entertained world


leaders including George W It's still held by Labour


but these days the Making things is what


people like to do in They build showers at this


plant in Newton Aycliffe. The boss here says


it is a great time to It has been a good couple


of years for Newton Aycliffe, and the estate's


very busy, very full. I think the inward investment


with Hitachi has made a and I think we've seen


a few things smartened up but the estate is full and it's busy


and it's good to see. The strong manufacturing base helps


keep unemployment rates low and wages high compared


to the north-east average. But there are parts of this


constituency where pay and opportunities seem far from


abundant, especially in old coalmine At this job club in Ferryhill,


people say the few vacancies available


are low-paid and insecure. I went in on Tuesday after the bank


holiday and they said, Oh, you've Then turned around and said,


We'll have you back I've gone in on night


shift, half past ten, and they've sent us home at 11 o'clock,


Go home, we don't need you. The unemployment rate


in the north-east is still but that masks big variations


across the region. The rate of people claiming


unemployment benefit is just 2.3% in the City of Durham yet


it is 8.3% in Middlesbrough. And while wages in


Stockton South are close to the national average,


in Redcar weekly pay packets The impact of public sector cuts


which has led to job losses and pay freezes has also been


felt across the region. What we've seen is tens


of thousands of public So that is an impact


on real human beings, real On people who are still


in the public sector because of the Government continued


public pay cap, actually their wages have dropped


in real value and people


are reliant on food banks. Back in Sedgefield high-tech firms


at NETPark are trying to The outcome of Brexit could be


a decisive factor for them. I think if we had


access to the single market, it would certainly


make our life easier. We have to have a plan


for all eventualities. As long as there are


opportunities and we can still get in there with a minimum of red


tape and a maximum of open opportunity of cross-border


trading with no tariff, The local Chamber of


Commerce say the region's be given a prominent role in the


next Government's economic plans. If we can be given the power


to invest now in developing our key sectors, things like logistics


in this region like bio-sciences, silence we can start to be


the development be at the forefront of an industry


that is world-leading. And that is the way


we will work our way out of The economy is always


a key political battleground. And the issues raised


in Sedgefield will be crucial in deciding the outcome


of this general election. Well the Green Party wants


to increase public spending to create jobs while tackling low


pay and zero hour contracts. Our reporter Bob Cooper


asked how their approach I think it seems like Jeremy Corbyn


has been reading our manifesto from 2015


to get lots of his ideas. Well the Green Party wants


to increase public spending to create jobs while tackling low


pay and zero hour contracts. Our reporter Bob Cooper


asked how their approach I think it seems like Jeremy Corbyn


has been reading our manifesto from 2015


to get lots of his ideas. distinctions in how


we want to spend money. Its proven that further


investment that are more jobs renewable


energy then there are things like nuclear,


which So I think that accept the


differences in how we would want to We were talking


about the Living Wage Foundation before it something that


Labour was talking about. Jack Lenox who was going to be


the Green's candidate in Copeland - until the party stood aside


in the seat this week. You always hear that unemployment


has fallen but when you scrape the surface, the clip you have seen


shows that not only have got below average wages in this region but


double the average unemployment rates. We have people who are


underemployed. It is a blackspot for people working on serial our


contracts. Part-time employment. We're going to change that. With


regard to Brexit the Labour is fully behind the triggering of Article 50


Brexit, quite simply is a Brexit in Brexit, quite simply is a Brexit in


the best interests of the nation. The people of this nation. Not the


best interest of our political parties. What are you going to do


about wages and contracts? We will be setting up investment banks in


the regions and bringing investment aid and better jobs and highly


skilled jobs with better wages and conditions. Our business is not


going to bring those jobs and you will bring them more tax? We will


bring secure jobs and highly skilled jobs in this region, something we've


been suffering from for many years. Simon, watches saw in the film is


typical of employers. They are happy at the moment but concerned about


any future but they don't have access to the single market and


might be tariffs? What I have from Ian was rhetoric. Labour have no


plan to create the jobs we need. I have been speaking to employers


across Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. That is back to my job


and I went to an engineering from a few weeks ago that is a major


exporter in defence and energy. They are sending products all over the


world. What I had from them as they are not concerned at this stage


about the outline of the deal. They are in fact happy that as an


exporter, we are the only exporting region in the country. Nissan went


to Downing Street because they were concerned about what might be an


offer and tariffs would be death for exporters and jobs in this region.


She said no deal was better than a bad deal. No deal is better than a


bad deal but tariffs are very sectoral. In the car industry


tariffs are not nearly as high as in some other areas. I am saying that


as a deal to be done but don't think as a deal to be done but don't think


we should scaremonger about the impact of tariffs if that is where


we end up. I don't think it is in our best interests are the best


interests of Europe. I think that is a deal to be done. We know the


Liberal Democrat position is on Brexit but not too much about how do


you ensure the economy rise in the north-east. -- thrives. We depend a


lot on Europe. I have read from companies who are very concerned


because that is all this talk about if we leave this single market with


another trade deal. You don't get exports from trade deals, you get


them from companies having customers. Another really big issue


that comes up on the doorstep, we find, as with the NHS and education


and with the Conservative cuts to the public sector it is a really


important employer. In Northumberland would apply on


tourism a lot so we don't have that and it comes from outside and also


the region, so they don't have good jobs and people with money to spend


the whole of Northumberland is at risk in that sector. Fiona Mills


you're still asking businesses to take a step into the unknown of


Brexit. There are no guarantees the economy will stay on track. It will


flourish. I agree with the Conservative position that no deal


would be better than a bad deal. We buy more from Europe than they buy


from us that is not a problem there. No deal would be tariffs on


employers across the region they would have to try to sell their


goods into Europe with those tariffs on top. I really don't think that


will happen. It is not interests of European countries to do that. I


would like to say about Ukip that we support small businesses and that


would generate jobs in the region. We want to get rid of EU red tape


and Abbott encouraged people to set up their own businesses and employ


people. One specific idea, Ian. I note your idea still to be fully


published. To create jobs in the north-east. To have an investment


back here in the north-east. -- investment bank. Simon. We have the


new Tees Valley mayor delivering targeted investment. We have to stay


part of the single market because we need that for agricultural produce


we cannot survive on the world market.


206 candidates are now about to come knocking on your door -


including the Durham Cobbler who's standing in Tynemouth.


And the intriguingly-named Mr Fishfinger in


There's a full list by the way on the BBC election website.W


Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out


of time. On Thursday nominations closed


in the 650 parliamentary seats across the country,


so now we know exactly who's We've been analysing the parties'


candidates to find out what they might tell us


about the make-up of the House Well, we know Theresa May is


committed to delivering Brexit and analysis of Conservative


candidates has shown that in their top 100 target seats,


37 candidates supported leave during last year's referendum


campaign and 20 supported remain; 43


have not made public In the last parliament,


the vast majority of Labour MPs were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how


supportive are Labour Well, of 50 of Labour's


top 100 target seats 17 candidates have expressed


support for Mr Corbyn. 20 candidates supported Owen Smith


in last year's leadership contest or have expressed


anti-Corbyn sentiment, and If they won those,


the Labour benches would be marginally more sympathetic


to Mr Corbyn than they are now. What do the figures tell us


about where the other Well, the Lib Dems have decided not


to stand against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion,


and are fielding 629 candidates this year -


that's two fewer than 2015. The number of Ukip candidates has


fallen dramatically. They are standing in 247 fewer


constituencies than 2015, throwing their support behind


solidly pro-Brexit Tories in some areas such as Lewes


and Norfolk North. The Greens are fielding


103 fewer candidates than at the last election,


standing down to help other progressive candidates


in some places. The most liking statistic is the


demise in Ukip candidates, is this their swansong? And I think so. It


is remarkable how few Ukip candidates are standing. It is hard


to see they will suddenly revive in the next couple of years. I think


this is probably the end. Frank Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of


the left was a feature of this election, but also there is the


consolidation of the right, and if you take the things together that


could explain why the polls are where they are. Absolutely, that's


precisely what happened at the start of the 1980s, the right was


incredibly united and that's when we started talking about majorities of


over 100 or so. No matter what the size of Theresa May's majority, it


will be the total collapse of Ukip, but not just because we are now


leaving the EU and that was their only reason for being, but a whole


lot of people voted for Ukip because they felt the Tories were no longer


listening. Theresa May has given the impression that she is listening,


and that is the biggest possible thing that could happen to the Tory


vote. Fragmentation of the left, consolidation of the right? It's one


of the lessons that is never learnt, it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't


take much for the whole thing to fracture so now you have on the


centre-left the SNP, the Labour Party, the Greens, the Liberal


Democrats all competing for the same votes and when you have, fleetingly


perhaps, large numbers coalescing on the right in one party, there is


only going to be one outcome. It happens regularly. It doesn't mean


the Tories haven't got their own fragility. Two years ago, David


Cameron and George Osborne the dominant figures, neither are in


Parliament now which is a symptom of the fragility this election is


disguising. Mrs May's position in a way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in


the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in


France, I won't be outflanked on the right, so the National Front didn't


get through either timed he ran to the second round on like this time,


and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be outflanked Iver and as a result has


seen off right flank. And also she is looking to the left as well with


some of the state interventions. What was interesting about the


analysis you showed a few minutes ago was the number of Tory


candidates who have apparently not declared which way they voted in the


referendum, and you would have thought if this election was all


about Brexit, as some would claim, that would become an unsustainable


position, and actually more it's about leadership. But the point that


I'm now hearing from a number of Labour candidates that they are


seeing Tory leaflets that don't even have the Tory candidate's name on


them, it is just about Theresa May. I am glad they are keeping to the


law because by law they have to put it on. It has been harder for some


of the smaller parties too because of the speed of the election being


called. We have the manifesto is coming out this week. I think Labour


Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet sure when the Tories will bring


bears out. I suggest one thing, it will at least for people like me


bring an end to the question you will have to wait for the manifesto.


And Rebecca Long baby will never have that excuse again, isn't it


wonderful! She is not the only one. When you are trying to take the


north and Midlands from Labour, I would go to one or the other. For


me, I can barely hold back my excitement over the Tory manifesto.


This will be, I think, the most important day for the British


government for the next five years. That wasn't irony there? You


actually meant that? I'm not even being cynical at all on Sunday


Politics! This is a huge day and it's because I think we will see...


I don't think Mrs May will play it safe and I don't think we will get


the broadbrush stuff that she might be advised to do. I think she will


lay out precisely what you want to do over the next five years and take


some big risks. Then finally after a year of this guessing and


theorising, we will finally work out what Mrs May is all about. She will


say she doesn't want the next parliament to be all about Brexit,


though she knows that's the next important thing she has to deliver


in some way, so she gets a mandate for that if the polls are right but


she does have very different ideas from


Mr Cameron about how to run a country. She will I assume one to


mandate for what these different ideas are. Otherwise there is no


point in holding an early election. You will get a majority, but if you


get a mandate to carry on implementing the Cameron and Osborne


manifesto it would be utterly pointless. I agree, it is the


pivotal event of the election and it will be interesting to see the


degree to which she expands on the line which interests me about its


time to look at the good that government can do. Because in a way


this moves the debate on in UK politics from, from 97 the Blair


Brown governments were insecure about arguing about the role of


government. Cameron Osborne government similarly so, so here you


have a Labour Party talking about the role of government and the


state, and Tory leader apparently doing so was well. I think that will


be really interesting to see whether it is fleshed out in any significant


way. And it is not a natural Tory message. Harold Macmillan talked


about the role of the state, Ted Heath Mark two was pretty big on the


state, the industrial policy and so on, and even if it is not thought to


be that Tory, does she get away with it because she deliver such a big


victory if that's what she does deliver? Just inject a little note


of scepticism, I wonder how much of this is authentically Theresa May. I


was interested to and talk to someone who used to sit in cabinet


meetings during which Theresa May never expressed an opinion on


anything outside the Home Office briefs. Other ministers were roving


all over their colleagues' briefs. So where are the ideas coming from?


I think we can point to Nick Timothy. One of her closest advisers


in Downing Street. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.


On Thursday I think we will all be talking about something called


Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the suburb of Birmingham where Nick


Timothy comes from, who is very much Theresa May's policy brain and


leading inspiration. Urdington Toryism is about connecting the


party with traditional working class voters, and their belief to do that


is not just taking away government out of their lives but showing them


that government can actually help their lives. It can be a force for


good to rebuild the trust. A lot of what Mrs May talks about is all...


It is talk and then a lot of it suddenly goes by the wayside. What


happened to worker directors on the boards. It is designed to appeal to


that constituency and then nothing happens. She had an excuse before in


the sense that it wasn't in the 2015 manifesto and she had a small


majority so therefore she arguably had to water down some of the stuff


for example in her Tory conference speech, which had a lot of this


active government material in it. If she puts it in the manifesto, it is


a sign she plans to do it and will have no excuse if she then gets


nervous afterwards because it will be in there. If it wasn't for


Brexit, this great overwhelming issue, I think this election will be


seen as quite a significant development in terms of an argument


around the role of government, much-needed. But Brexit


unfortunately overshadows it all. As much as we like our arguments over


the role of government we will hear strong and stable, stable and strong


ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely, and we heard the same old lines from


the Labour Party as well so they are all at it. It will be a fascinating


week, stop talking it down! Thanks to our panel.


The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon


I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.


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Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.

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