14/05/2017 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


14/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:40.:00:43.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:44.:00:46.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:47.:00:53.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:54.:00:55.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:56.:00:58.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:00:59.:01:01.

We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.

:01:02.:01:06.

Here: Labour hits back after the Prime Minister accuses

:01:07.:01:08.

Jeremy Corbyn of abandoning the North East's working-class voters.

:01:09.:01:13.

But have the Conservatives really won

:01:14.:01:14.

and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

:01:15.:01:17.

pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically

:01:18.:01:25.

selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much undecided as clueless -

:01:29.:01:30.

Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme. So, we've got two new

:01:33.:01:40.

policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:41.:01:42.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

:01:43.:01:44.

and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

:01:45.:01:46.

avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

:01:47.:01:49.

with local authorities in England to build council houses

:01:50.:01:51.

with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

:01:52.:01:53.

"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

:01:54.:01:56.

of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:57.:02:08.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

:02:09.:02:13.

pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

:02:14.:02:17.

literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

:02:18.:02:21.

Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

:02:22.:02:26.

framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

:02:27.:02:29.

sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

:02:30.:02:34.

narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

:02:35.:02:38.

argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

:02:39.:02:45.

government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

:02:46.:02:47.

right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

:02:48.:02:51.

housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

:02:52.:02:55.

George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:56.:03:00.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:01.:03:03.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

:03:04.:03:08.

sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

:03:09.:03:16.

May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

:03:17.:03:20.

these two announcements have something in common which is that

:03:21.:03:24.

over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

:03:25.:03:30.

Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

:03:31.:03:34.

agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:35.:03:41.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:42.:03:46.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

:03:47.:03:50.

difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

:03:51.:03:54.

looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

:03:55.:04:00.

orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

:04:01.:04:04.

change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

:04:05.:04:07.

value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

:04:08.:04:12.

with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

:04:13.:04:19.

would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

:04:20.:04:23.

traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:24.:04:30.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

:04:31.:04:38.

city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

:04:39.:04:41.

Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

:04:42.:04:45.

talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

:04:46.:04:50.

Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

:04:51.:04:57.

the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

:04:58.:05:02.

interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

:05:03.:05:09.

correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

:05:10.:05:12.

worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

:05:13.:05:17.

it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

:05:18.:05:24.

macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

:05:25.:05:29.

well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

:05:30.:05:31.

Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

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But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

:05:34.:05:36.

that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

:05:37.:05:39.

Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

:05:40.:05:47.

?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

:05:48.:05:51.

care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

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as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

:05:54.:05:55.

The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

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although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

:06:05.:06:07.

and security review immediately after the election.

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In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

:06:10.:06:12.

management of migration", but it will not make "false

:06:13.:06:14.

Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

:06:15.:06:20.

and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

:06:21.:06:23.

for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

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The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

:06:27.:06:29.

and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

:06:30.:06:36.

A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

:06:37.:06:42.

as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

:06:43.:06:44.

about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

:06:45.:06:46.

told us they thought it had been deliberately

:06:47.:06:48.

leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

:06:49.:06:52.

the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

:06:53.:06:55.

And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

:06:56.:06:58.

Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

:06:59.:07:06.

the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

:07:07.:07:11.

rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

:07:12.:07:16.

railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

:07:17.:07:20.

Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

:07:21.:07:26.

comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:27.:07:33.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

:07:34.:07:36.

nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

:07:37.:07:41.

the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

:07:42.:07:45.

will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

:07:46.:07:51.

until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

:07:52.:07:55.

very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

:07:56.:08:01.

Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

:08:02.:08:07.

nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:08.:08:11.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

:08:12.:08:18.

National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:19.:08:22.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

:08:23.:08:26.

it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

:08:27.:08:30.

costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

:08:31.:08:36.

would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

:08:37.:08:41.

the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:42.:08:44.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:45.:08:49.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:50.:08:56.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:57.:08:59.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:00.:09:03.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:04.:09:08.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

:09:09.:09:13.

Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:14.:09:16.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

:09:17.:09:23.

answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:24.:09:29.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:30.:09:33.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

:09:34.:09:37.

six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:38.:09:42.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:43.:09:49.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:50.:09:53.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:54.:10:00.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:01.:10:06.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:07.:10:10.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:11.:10:14.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:15.:10:18.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

:10:19.:10:24.

our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:25.:10:26.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:27.:10:32.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:33.:10:36.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

:10:37.:10:41.

of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

:10:42.:10:46.

will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

:10:47.:10:54.

after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:55.:11:00.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:01.:11:07.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:08.:11:10.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

:11:11.:11:15.

state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

:11:16.:11:18.

won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:19.:11:25.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:26.:11:29.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:30.:11:35.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

:11:36.:11:39.

that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

:11:40.:11:43.

figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

:11:44.:11:47.

competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

:11:48.:11:55.

CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

:11:56.:11:59.

billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:00.:12:04.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:05.:12:09.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:10.:12:15.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:16.:12:19.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:20.:12:24.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:25.:12:31.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

:12:32.:12:35.

ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

:12:36.:12:39.

to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:40.:12:47.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:48.:12:51.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:52.:12:56.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:57.:13:00.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:01.:13:04.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:05.:13:09.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:10.:13:13.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:14.:13:18.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

:13:19.:13:23.

make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:24.:13:26.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:27.:13:32.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:33.:13:35.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:36.:13:40.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:41.:13:48.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:49.:13:51.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:52.:13:56.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:57.:14:01.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:02.:14:06.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:07.:14:11.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:12.:14:15.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:16.:14:18.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:19.:14:24.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:25.:14:28.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:29.:14:33.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:34.:14:41.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:42.:14:44.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:45.:14:51.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:52.:15:01.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:02.:15:07.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:08.:15:14.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:15.:15:18.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:19.:15:24.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:25.:15:27.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:28.:15:33.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:34.:15:40.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:41.:15:45.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:46.:15:52.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:53.:15:59.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:00.:16:03.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:04.:16:15.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:16.:16:19.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:20.:16:24.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:25.:16:30.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:31.:16:33.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:34.:16:38.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:39.:16:44.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:45.:16:49.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:50.:16:52.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:53.:16:58.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:16:59.:17:02.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:03.:17:06.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:07.:17:14.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:15.:17:19.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:20.:17:21.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:22.:17:30.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:31.:17:37.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:38.:17:41.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:42.:17:46.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:47.:17:50.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:51.:17:55.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:56.:18:00.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:01.:18:11.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:12.:18:15.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:16.:18:20.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:21.:18:24.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:25.:18:28.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:29.:18:33.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:34.:18:36.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:37.:18:41.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:42.:18:47.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:48.:18:53.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:54.:19:00.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:01.:19:05.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:06.:19:07.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:08.:19:14.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:15.:19:17.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:18.:19:23.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:24.:19:28.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:29.:19:38.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:39.:19:41.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:42.:19:50.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:51.:19:54.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:55.:19:58.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:19:59.:20:04.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:05.:20:08.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:09.:20:12.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:13.:20:17.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:18.:20:23.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:24.:20:26.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:27.:20:33.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:34.:20:37.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:38.:20:41.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:42.:20:47.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:48.:20:51.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:52.:20:56.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:57.:21:01.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:02.:21:06.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:07.:21:12.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:13.:21:18.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:19.:21:22.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:23.:21:33.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:34.:21:35.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:36.:21:39.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:40.:21:46.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:47.:21:51.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:52.:21:54.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:55.:21:59.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:00.:22:05.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:06.:22:10.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:11.:22:15.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:16.:22:24.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:25.:22:26.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:27.:22:31.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:32.:22:37.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:38.:22:43.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:44.:22:49.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:50.:22:53.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:54.:22:57.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:58.:23:01.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:02.:23:07.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:08.:23:10.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:11.:23:15.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:16.:23:19.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:20.:23:23.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:24.:23:28.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:29.:23:34.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:35.:23:39.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:40.:23:45.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:46.:23:49.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:50.:23:55.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:56.:24:03.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:04.:24:07.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:08.:24:14.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:15.:24:19.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:20.:24:26.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:27.:24:30.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:31.:24:34.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:35.:24:39.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:40.:24:43.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:44.:24:47.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:48.:24:54.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:55.:24:59.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:25:00.:25:04.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:05.:25:08.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:09.:25:12.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:13.:25:19.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:20.:25:22.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:23.:25:30.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:31.:25:33.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:34.:25:39.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:40.:25:44.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:45.:25:48.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:49.:25:52.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:53.:25:56.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:57.:26:02.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:03.:26:07.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:08.:26:13.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:14.:26:18.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:19.:26:21.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:22.:26:25.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:26.:26:29.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:30.:26:33.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:34.:26:38.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:39.:26:42.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:43.:26:48.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:49.:26:51.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:52.:26:57.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:58.:27:03.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:04.:27:07.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:08.:27:12.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:13.:27:19.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:20.:27:25.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:26.:27:30.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:31.:27:34.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:35.:27:45.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:46.:27:50.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:51.:27:58.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:27:59.:28:05.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:06.:28:10.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:11.:28:14.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:15.:28:15.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:16.:28:20.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:21.:28:23.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:24.:28:26.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:27.:28:29.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:30.:28:31.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:32.:28:36.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:37.:28:38.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:39.:28:47.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:48.:28:52.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:53.:28:55.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:56.:28:59.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:29:00.:29:01.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:02.:29:08.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:09.:29:14.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:15.:29:16.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:17.:29:21.

came about who you want,

:29:22.:29:40.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:41.:29:44.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:45.:29:48.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:49.:29:51.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:52.:29:53.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:54.:29:57.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:29:58.:29:59.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:00.:30:03.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:04.:30:05.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:06.:30:08.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:09.:30:14.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:15.:30:17.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:18.:30:19.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:20.:30:22.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:23.:30:26.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:27.:30:35.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:36.:30:48.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:49.:30:52.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:53.:31:02.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:03.:31:04.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:05.:31:07.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:08.:31:18.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:19.:31:25.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:26.:31:28.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:29.:31:31.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:32.:31:34.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:35.:31:36.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:37.:31:41.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:42.:31:50.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:51.:31:52.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:53.:31:54.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:55.:31:56.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:57.:32:00.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:01.:32:02.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:03.:32:07.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:08.:32:09.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:10.:32:11.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:12.:32:14.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:15.:32:16.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:17.:32:20.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:21.:32:26.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:27.:32:32.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:33.:32:35.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:36.:32:41.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:42.:32:44.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:45.:32:58.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:32:59.:33:04.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:05.:33:20.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:21.:33:23.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:24.:33:26.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:27.:33:34.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:35.:33:36.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:37.:33:40.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:41.:33:42.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:43.:33:44.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:45.:33:46.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:47.:33:49.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:50.:33:52.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:53.:33:55.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:56.:33:58.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:33:59.:34:01.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:02.:34:04.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:05.:34:08.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:09.:34:12.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:13.:34:14.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:15.:34:20.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:21.:34:22.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:23.:34:29.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:30.:34:31.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:32.:34:34.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:35.:34:36.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:37.:34:39.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:40.:34:47.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:48.:34:54.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:55.:35:00.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:01.:35:03.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:04.:35:07.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:08.:35:12.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:13.:35:17.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:18.:35:21.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:22.:35:26.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:27.:35:35.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:36.:35:43.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:44.:35:47.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:48.:35:51.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:52.:35:56.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:57.:36:01.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:02.:36:06.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:07.:36:12.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:13.:36:20.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:21.:36:25.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:26.:36:30.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:31.:36:37.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:38.:36:43.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:44.:36:48.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:49.:36:51.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:52.:36:55.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:56.:37:01.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:02.:37:04.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:05.:37:10.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:11.:37:15.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:16.:37:19.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:20.:37:24.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:25.:37:27.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:28.:37:36.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:37.:37:39.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:40.:37:42.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:43.:37:49.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:50.:37:51.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:52.:37:54.

Hello and welcome to your local part of the show -

:37:55.:38:07.

live from Newcastle - in the week the Prime Minister came

:38:08.:38:10.

to the North East and claimed Labour's leadership was abandoning

:38:11.:38:12.

Labour's campaign co-ordinator and Wansbeck candidate Ian Lavery -

:38:13.:38:25.

working-class to his core - will no doubt have plenty

:38:26.:38:27.

Also with me this week: Fiona Mills who's standing for Ukip

:38:28.:38:32.

in Carlisle, Simon Clarke - who's aiming to take the marginal

:38:33.:38:35.

seat of Middlesbrough South for the Conservatives, and Julie Porksen

:38:36.:38:37.

who's trying to win back Berwick for the Liberal Democrats.

:38:38.:38:40.

Also coming up: We're in County Durham with the first

:38:41.:38:42.

of our films looking at the big issues of

:38:43.:38:44.

Let's start though with that visit to the North East

:38:45.:38:55.

The Prime Minister had a message to working-class voters and she went

:38:56.:38:59.

deep into Labour territory in North Shields to deliver it.

:39:00.:39:02.

In a visit that also included brief stops

:39:03.:39:04.

in Northumberland and Darlington, she said Jeremy Corbyn didn't

:39:05.:39:06.

Millions of people here in the north-east of England

:39:07.:39:13.

and across our country have loyally given their support to

:39:14.:39:20.

We respect that parents and grandparents

:39:21.:39:24.

taught their children and

:39:25.:39:25.

grandchildren that Labour was a party that

:39:26.:39:27.

shared their values and

:39:28.:39:28.

But across the country today traditional

:39:29.:39:31.

Labour supporters are increasingly looking at what Jeremy Corbyn

:39:32.:39:33.

He, I'm sure you will scoff at the talk of taking working-class Labour

:39:34.:40:01.

votes. She wants is secretly into an airfield miles away from anywhere to

:40:02.:40:07.

an invited audience of 20 to 25 invited people without speaking and

:40:08.:40:10.

listening to ordinary working class people and then being moved to North

:40:11.:40:17.

Shields, somewhere that the Tories tried to close down 13 years ago to

:40:18.:40:22.

an invited audience. This is an insult to the people of the

:40:23.:40:26.

north-east. It is the ultimate insult for a Prime Minister to waltz

:40:27.:40:30.

into this area and not speak to anybody other than invited guests

:40:31.:40:33.

and claim to be a champion of the workers. They shouldn't take the

:40:34.:40:39.

voters of this region as fools and I'm sure they are not. Let's put

:40:40.:40:49.

that point assignment. -- to Simon. If she is so keen on appealing to

:40:50.:40:55.

these voters why should not talking to any? I imagine the doorstep Day

:40:56.:41:04.

in and day out. The number of conversations I have with photos

:41:05.:41:06.

that begin with I have always voted Labour backed is quite striking. --

:41:07.:41:19.

but... She is taking questions day in and day out. From party

:41:20.:41:29.

activists. From journalists. What I see in community and community

:41:30.:41:33.

across the area and rural and urban areas as well is that people are out

:41:34.:41:38.

fed up with a complacent labour establishment which is totally out

:41:39.:41:43.

of tune with them. Ian, you must have heard from Labour candidates in

:41:44.:41:52.

the doorstep who have heard of some voters wanted to go Theresa May. I

:41:53.:41:58.

haven't heard anyone say to me that they will be turning from the Labour

:41:59.:42:05.

Party. Even in the marginal constituencies such assignments? --

:42:06.:42:16.

as Simon? When I have been on the doorstep that has not been anybody

:42:17.:42:22.

who said that to me. Not one. That suggest the polls are wrong. It

:42:23.:42:29.

would be the first time. What might convince the voters of some more

:42:30.:42:34.

sincerity for the Prime Minister is word of some investment? The

:42:35.:42:44.

platform is not about making big announcements but delivering strong

:42:45.:42:49.

and stable leadership. We're not in the business of promising money like

:42:50.:42:53.

sweeties like the Labour Party. We are about making sure that as a

:42:54.:42:57.

credible programme for jobs and growth. Unemployment in the

:42:58.:42:59.

north-east is down sharply since 2010. The strong and stable stand by

:43:00.:43:07.

it. Don't hold on for investment. -- sound bite. People want credible

:43:08.:43:16.

Government for serious times and we are providing that. Fiona Mills,

:43:17.:43:20.

these traditional Labour voters Theresa May is appealing to other

:43:21.:43:25.

very people recruited to Ukip and flooding away from you? She is right

:43:26.:43:31.

that the Labour Party don't represent the traditional working

:43:32.:43:36.

class people in a morbid Ukip two. Voters tell me I can't possibly vote

:43:37.:43:47.

Conservative but I will vote Ukip. The reason that Labour voters might

:43:48.:43:52.

ford Conservative this time is to get Brexit and no other reason. --

:43:53.:44:01.

vote. Julie is this not a problem in Berwick where conservatives may

:44:02.:44:05.

shore up the boat but people will be put off by Labour who want to see

:44:06.:44:10.

Brexit happen? Brexit has hardly come up on the doorstep and I had

:44:11.:44:15.

been out and about. I meet a lot of people say I have always voted

:44:16.:44:20.

Labour but I really need to defeat the Tories. The other clueless

:44:21.:44:25.

Government we have had a long time. -- the most cruel Government. You

:44:26.:44:33.

don't hear anyone saying I want Brexit so I'm not voting Liberal

:44:34.:44:39.

Democrat? And maximum I have met one day. I have also met a lot of

:44:40.:44:43.

conservatives who are really crossed that the Conservative MP did not

:44:44.:44:46.

tell anybody that she was Brexit here before standing in 2015. It

:44:47.:44:53.

will affect rural areas are significantly. Let's talk about who

:44:54.:44:57.

will be standing. Now, let's talk about who'll be

:44:58.:44:59.

standing in the General Election - Nominations have closed

:45:00.:45:02.

and Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats

:45:03.:45:04.

are fielding a full slate of candidates in all 39

:45:05.:45:06.

constituencies across Cumbria But there's been some

:45:07.:45:10.

informal deals done The Greens won't be standing

:45:11.:45:13.

in Carlisle, Copeland, Workington, Bishop Auckland or Hartlepool

:45:14.:45:23.

in the hope of consolidating the Labour vote - and stopping

:45:24.:45:30.

a Conservative landslide. has decided not to stand in seats

:45:31.:45:32.

where they believe there's another That includes Blyth Valley,

:45:33.:45:37.

Berwick and Middlesbrough South. I am the only candidate in the seat

:45:38.:45:52.

we did a back Brexit. I think Fiona and I would be as one that we remain

:45:53.:45:57.

very distinct parties with very distinct agendas. The Ukip agenda is

:45:58.:46:02.

not mine. There has been no deal done and as far as I'm aware Ukip

:46:03.:46:07.

couldn't find a candidate to feel. -- field. In some of the seats are

:46:08.:46:15.

you saying we will leave it to the Conservatives? Ukip puts country

:46:16.:46:21.

sitting MP who was a Brexit MP and sitting MP who was a Brexit MP and

:46:22.:46:27.

campaign to leave we will not oppose them. In Stockton South the

:46:28.:46:34.

candidate put a referendum bill in Parliament. I am standing in

:46:35.:46:40.

who was for remain and I don't think who was for remain and I don't think

:46:41.:46:43.

his heart was fully in it. I think it was along party lines. In the

:46:44.:46:53.

north-east you're fielding 26 candidates, 25 men and one woman.

:46:54.:46:57.

Whether the woman? Are they behind the fridge? We have two women can do

:46:58.:47:05.

Cumbria. We don't have all women short list for other parties do. It

:47:06.:47:10.

is absolutely true merit. Through merit there is only one woman? There

:47:11.:47:15.

must of been. We do not discriminate. Should you not have

:47:16.:47:23.

followed the green example, Julie? In Bishop Auckland and Hartlepool

:47:24.:47:30.

Labour could lose because the Liberal Democrats could peel off

:47:31.:47:39.

from Labour? We are really pleased that Caroline Lucas in Brighton has

:47:40.:47:51.

been spotted. It is madness if you want to stop Brexit. I think what is

:47:52.:48:00.

really important is that we have strong individuals representing

:48:01.:48:02.

local areas and key issues and that is why we are really pleased that

:48:03.:48:07.

Caroline Lucas will hopefully when Brighton. I am in force interested

:48:08.:48:14.

in Brighton, I have to tell you. Ian, you have a full list of

:48:15.:48:17.

candidates not all of them are running the local campaigns. I'm

:48:18.:48:28.

looking at a leaflet by a candidate and it does not mention she's a

:48:29.:48:33.

Labour candidate. We are standing candidates in every constituency.

:48:34.:48:39.

That is really important. There are no deals being done

:48:40.:48:45.

behind-the-scenes to let one party have an advantage. We're looking at

:48:46.:48:49.

every vote in every town and in this country to stop some of them are

:48:50.:48:58.

looking for every bought by making sure it is a personal vote for them

:48:59.:49:01.

and not to mention Jeremy Corbyn on even the Labour Party. I have been

:49:02.:49:07.

campaigning since I was a young boy and different people camping in

:49:08.:49:11.

different ways. The two different things on the leaflet. Some include

:49:12.:49:15.

some things and some others. That is the nature of the game. Things have

:49:16.:49:20.

not changed in that. But the reason why these deals are being done with

:49:21.:49:24.

Ukip and the Conservatives, quite obvious that has been a lot of deals

:49:25.:49:28.

done with them, is because Theresa May has taken the Conservative Party

:49:29.:49:34.

that far to the right and the one of the party with Ukip. I disagree

:49:35.:49:42.

completely. We have an excellent manifesto which is much better than

:49:43.:49:46.

the conservative one. I will be sending it off in London on

:49:47.:49:48.

Wednesday. Completely severed parties. One thing that hasn't

:49:49.:49:55.

changed about the conservative is a bunch of southern candidates in

:49:56.:50:03.

northern seats. Hastings and Chelsea and Westminster. We have a strong

:50:04.:50:09.

slate of north-east candidates and I grew up in Middlesbrough in the

:50:10.:50:21.

constituency I am representing. In terms of my fellow candidates, Jacob

:50:22.:50:25.

Young is from Middlesbrough and Peter Gibson in Redcar grew up

:50:26.:50:34.

there. The idea that Peter Mandelson was from Hartlepool or Tony Blair

:50:35.:50:36.

was from Sedgefield, it's about getting the right person for the

:50:37.:50:38.

right job. Now: Labour said this week they want

:50:39.:50:43.

a "Brexit for Jobs" - And where will the new jobs

:50:44.:50:46.

of the future come from? Our reporter David Macmillan has

:50:47.:50:49.

been to the constituency of Sedgefield in County Durham

:50:50.:50:52.

to try and find out.. It's a prize all our

:50:53.:50:56.

politicians are chasing. A world-famous company creating jobs

:50:57.:50:57.

and investing millions in their patch, In the

:50:58.:50:59.

Sedgefield constituency This constituency was made famous

:51:00.:51:01.

by its former MP Tony Blair, who entertained world

:51:02.:51:10.

leaders including George W It's still held by Labour

:51:11.:51:13.

but these days the Making things is what

:51:14.:51:16.

people like to do in They build showers at this

:51:17.:51:19.

plant in Newton Aycliffe. The boss here says

:51:20.:51:23.

it is a great time to It has been a good couple

:51:24.:51:26.

of years for Newton Aycliffe, and the estate's

:51:27.:51:29.

very busy, very full. I think the inward investment

:51:30.:51:31.

with Hitachi has made a and I think we've seen

:51:32.:51:34.

a few things smartened up but the estate is full and it's busy

:51:35.:51:44.

and it's good to see. The strong manufacturing base helps

:51:45.:51:48.

keep unemployment rates low and wages high compared

:51:49.:51:50.

to the north-east average. But there are parts of this

:51:51.:51:58.

constituency where pay and opportunities seem far from

:51:59.:52:00.

abundant, especially in old coalmine At this job club in Ferryhill,

:52:01.:52:07.

people say the few vacancies available

:52:08.:52:11.

are low-paid and insecure. I went in on Tuesday after the bank

:52:12.:52:12.

holiday and they said, Oh, you've Then turned around and said,

:52:13.:52:17.

We'll have you back I've gone in on night

:52:18.:52:24.

shift, half past ten, and they've sent us home at 11 o'clock,

:52:25.:52:30.

Go home, we don't need you. The unemployment rate

:52:31.:52:33.

in the north-east is still but that masks big variations

:52:34.:52:39.

across the region. The rate of people claiming

:52:40.:52:43.

unemployment benefit is just 2.3% in the City of Durham yet

:52:44.:52:49.

it is 8.3% in Middlesbrough. And while wages in

:52:50.:52:51.

Stockton South are close to the national average,

:52:52.:52:54.

in Redcar weekly pay packets The impact of public sector cuts

:52:55.:52:56.

which has led to job losses and pay freezes has also been

:52:57.:53:00.

felt across the region. What we've seen is tens

:53:01.:53:03.

of thousands of public So that is an impact

:53:04.:53:05.

on real human beings, real On people who are still

:53:06.:53:27.

in the public sector because of the Government continued

:53:28.:53:40.

public pay cap, actually their wages have dropped

:53:41.:53:42.

in real value and people

:53:43.:53:43.

are reliant on food banks. Back in Sedgefield high-tech firms

:53:44.:53:45.

at NETPark are trying to The outcome of Brexit could be

:53:46.:53:49.

a decisive factor for them. I think if we had

:53:50.:53:53.

access to the single market, it would certainly

:53:54.:53:55.

make our life easier. We have to have a plan

:53:56.:53:57.

for all eventualities. As long as there are

:53:58.:53:59.

opportunities and we can still get in there with a minimum of red

:54:00.:54:02.

tape and a maximum of open opportunity of cross-border

:54:03.:54:05.

trading with no tariff, The local Chamber of

:54:06.:54:07.

Commerce say the region's be given a prominent role in the

:54:08.:54:10.

next Government's economic plans. If we can be given the power

:54:11.:54:13.

to invest now in developing our key sectors, things like logistics

:54:14.:54:17.

in this region like bio-sciences, silence we can start to be

:54:18.:54:19.

the development be at the forefront of an industry

:54:20.:54:21.

that is world-leading. And that is the way

:54:22.:54:23.

we will work our way out of The economy is always

:54:24.:54:26.

a key political battleground. And the issues raised

:54:27.:54:29.

in Sedgefield will be crucial in deciding the outcome

:54:30.:54:31.

of this general election. Well the Green Party wants

:54:32.:54:33.

to increase public spending to create jobs while tackling low

:54:34.:54:36.

pay and zero hour contracts. Our reporter Bob Cooper

:54:37.:54:39.

asked how their approach I think it seems like Jeremy Corbyn

:54:40.:54:41.

has been reading our manifesto from 2015

:54:42.:54:46.

to get lots of his ideas. Well the Green Party wants

:54:47.:54:48.

to increase public spending to create jobs while tackling low

:54:49.:54:51.

pay and zero hour contracts. Our reporter Bob Cooper

:54:52.:54:54.

asked how their approach I think it seems like Jeremy Corbyn

:54:55.:54:56.

has been reading our manifesto from 2015

:54:57.:55:01.

to get lots of his ideas. distinctions in how

:55:02.:55:03.

we want to spend money. Its proven that further

:55:04.:55:06.

investment that are more jobs renewable

:55:07.:55:08.

energy then there are things like nuclear,

:55:09.:55:10.

which So I think that accept the

:55:11.:55:11.

differences in how we would want to We were talking

:55:12.:55:16.

about the Living Wage Foundation before it something that

:55:17.:55:18.

Labour was talking about. Jack Lenox who was going to be

:55:19.:55:20.

the Green's candidate in Copeland - until the party stood aside

:55:21.:55:27.

in the seat this week. You always hear that unemployment

:55:28.:55:33.

has fallen but when you scrape the surface, the clip you have seen

:55:34.:55:39.

shows that not only have got below average wages in this region but

:55:40.:55:43.

double the average unemployment rates. We have people who are

:55:44.:55:47.

underemployed. It is a blackspot for people working on serial our

:55:48.:55:51.

contracts. Part-time employment. We're going to change that. With

:55:52.:55:58.

regard to Brexit the Labour is fully behind the triggering of Article 50

:55:59.:56:02.

Brexit, quite simply is a Brexit in Brexit, quite simply is a Brexit in

:56:03.:56:07.

the best interests of the nation. The people of this nation. Not the

:56:08.:56:10.

best interest of our political parties. What are you going to do

:56:11.:56:17.

about wages and contracts? We will be setting up investment banks in

:56:18.:56:21.

the regions and bringing investment aid and better jobs and highly

:56:22.:56:24.

skilled jobs with better wages and conditions. Our business is not

:56:25.:56:30.

going to bring those jobs and you will bring them more tax? We will

:56:31.:56:35.

bring secure jobs and highly skilled jobs in this region, something we've

:56:36.:56:40.

been suffering from for many years. Simon, watches saw in the film is

:56:41.:56:48.

typical of employers. They are happy at the moment but concerned about

:56:49.:56:50.

any future but they don't have access to the single market and

:56:51.:56:59.

might be tariffs? What I have from Ian was rhetoric. Labour have no

:57:00.:57:05.

plan to create the jobs we need. I have been speaking to employers

:57:06.:57:09.

across Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland. That is back to my job

:57:10.:57:13.

and I went to an engineering from a few weeks ago that is a major

:57:14.:57:17.

exporter in defence and energy. They are sending products all over the

:57:18.:57:21.

world. What I had from them as they are not concerned at this stage

:57:22.:57:26.

about the outline of the deal. They are in fact happy that as an

:57:27.:57:32.

exporter, we are the only exporting region in the country. Nissan went

:57:33.:57:34.

to Downing Street because they were concerned about what might be an

:57:35.:57:39.

offer and tariffs would be death for exporters and jobs in this region.

:57:40.:57:44.

She said no deal was better than a bad deal. No deal is better than a

:57:45.:57:49.

bad deal but tariffs are very sectoral. In the car industry

:57:50.:57:53.

tariffs are not nearly as high as in some other areas. I am saying that

:57:54.:57:56.

as a deal to be done but don't think as a deal to be done but don't think

:57:57.:57:59.

we should scaremonger about the impact of tariffs if that is where

:58:00.:58:04.

we end up. I don't think it is in our best interests are the best

:58:05.:58:07.

interests of Europe. I think that is a deal to be done. We know the

:58:08.:58:12.

Liberal Democrat position is on Brexit but not too much about how do

:58:13.:58:16.

you ensure the economy rise in the north-east. -- thrives. We depend a

:58:17.:58:26.

lot on Europe. I have read from companies who are very concerned

:58:27.:58:29.

because that is all this talk about if we leave this single market with

:58:30.:58:34.

another trade deal. You don't get exports from trade deals, you get

:58:35.:58:36.

them from companies having customers. Another really big issue

:58:37.:58:44.

that comes up on the doorstep, we find, as with the NHS and education

:58:45.:58:47.

and with the Conservative cuts to the public sector it is a really

:58:48.:58:56.

important employer. In Northumberland would apply on

:58:57.:59:01.

tourism a lot so we don't have that and it comes from outside and also

:59:02.:59:05.

the region, so they don't have good jobs and people with money to spend

:59:06.:59:10.

the whole of Northumberland is at risk in that sector. Fiona Mills

:59:11.:59:13.

you're still asking businesses to take a step into the unknown of

:59:14.:59:18.

Brexit. There are no guarantees the economy will stay on track. It will

:59:19.:59:23.

flourish. I agree with the Conservative position that no deal

:59:24.:59:27.

would be better than a bad deal. We buy more from Europe than they buy

:59:28.:59:34.

from us that is not a problem there. No deal would be tariffs on

:59:35.:59:38.

employers across the region they would have to try to sell their

:59:39.:59:41.

goods into Europe with those tariffs on top. I really don't think that

:59:42.:59:47.

will happen. It is not interests of European countries to do that. I

:59:48.:59:52.

would like to say about Ukip that we support small businesses and that

:59:53.:59:55.

would generate jobs in the region. We want to get rid of EU red tape

:59:56.:59:59.

and Abbott encouraged people to set up their own businesses and employ

:00:00.:00:08.

people. One specific idea, Ian. I note your idea still to be fully

:00:09.:00:13.

published. To create jobs in the north-east. To have an investment

:00:14.:00:17.

back here in the north-east. -- investment bank. Simon. We have the

:00:18.:00:30.

new Tees Valley mayor delivering targeted investment. We have to stay

:00:31.:00:36.

part of the single market because we need that for agricultural produce

:00:37.:00:39.

we cannot survive on the world market.

:00:40.:00:41.

206 candidates are now about to come knocking on your door -

:00:42.:00:46.

including the Durham Cobbler who's standing in Tynemouth.

:00:47.:00:48.

And the intriguingly-named Mr Fishfinger in

:00:49.:00:51.

There's a full list by the way on the BBC election website.W

:00:52.:00:55.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out

:00:56.:00:57.

of time. On Thursday nominations closed

:00:58.:01:04.

in the 650 parliamentary seats across the country,

:01:05.:01:09.

so now we know exactly who's We've been analysing the parties'

:01:10.:01:11.

candidates to find out what they might tell us

:01:12.:01:18.

about the make-up of the House Well, we know Theresa May is

:01:19.:01:21.

committed to delivering Brexit and analysis of Conservative

:01:22.:01:26.

candidates has shown that in their top 100 target seats,

:01:27.:01:31.

37 candidates supported leave during last year's referendum

:01:32.:01:33.

campaign and 20 supported remain; 43

:01:34.:01:41.

have not made public In the last parliament,

:01:42.:01:43.

the vast majority of Labour MPs were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how

:01:44.:01:49.

supportive are Labour Well, of 50 of Labour's

:01:50.:01:52.

top 100 target seats 17 candidates have expressed

:01:53.:01:58.

support for Mr Corbyn. 20 candidates supported Owen Smith

:01:59.:02:01.

in last year's leadership contest or have expressed

:02:02.:02:05.

anti-Corbyn sentiment, and If they won those,

:02:06.:02:10.

the Labour benches would be marginally more sympathetic

:02:11.:02:15.

to Mr Corbyn than they are now. What do the figures tell us

:02:16.:02:17.

about where the other Well, the Lib Dems have decided not

:02:18.:02:20.

to stand against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion,

:02:21.:02:24.

and are fielding 629 candidates this year -

:02:25.:02:26.

that's two fewer than 2015. The number of Ukip candidates has

:02:27.:02:28.

fallen dramatically. They are standing in 247 fewer

:02:29.:02:32.

constituencies than 2015, throwing their support behind

:02:33.:02:38.

solidly pro-Brexit Tories in some areas such as Lewes

:02:39.:02:41.

and Norfolk North. The Greens are fielding

:02:42.:02:45.

103 fewer candidates than at the last election,

:02:46.:02:48.

standing down to help other progressive candidates

:02:49.:02:59.

in some places. The most liking statistic is the

:03:00.:03:13.

demise in Ukip candidates, is this their swansong? And I think so. It

:03:14.:03:19.

is remarkable how few Ukip candidates are standing. It is hard

:03:20.:03:26.

to see they will suddenly revive in the next couple of years. I think

:03:27.:03:37.

this is probably the end. Frank Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of

:03:38.:03:41.

the left was a feature of this election, but also there is the

:03:42.:03:44.

consolidation of the right, and if you take the things together that

:03:45.:03:47.

could explain why the polls are where they are. Absolutely, that's

:03:48.:03:51.

precisely what happened at the start of the 1980s, the right was

:03:52.:03:58.

incredibly united and that's when we started talking about majorities of

:03:59.:04:03.

over 100 or so. No matter what the size of Theresa May's majority, it

:04:04.:04:10.

will be the total collapse of Ukip, but not just because we are now

:04:11.:04:15.

leaving the EU and that was their only reason for being, but a whole

:04:16.:04:20.

lot of people voted for Ukip because they felt the Tories were no longer

:04:21.:04:28.

listening. Theresa May has given the impression that she is listening,

:04:29.:04:31.

and that is the biggest possible thing that could happen to the Tory

:04:32.:04:40.

vote. Fragmentation of the left, consolidation of the right? It's one

:04:41.:04:45.

of the lessons that is never learnt, it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't

:04:46.:04:49.

take much for the whole thing to fracture so now you have on the

:04:50.:04:53.

centre-left the SNP, the Labour Party, the Greens, the Liberal

:04:54.:04:59.

Democrats all competing for the same votes and when you have, fleetingly

:05:00.:05:04.

perhaps, large numbers coalescing on the right in one party, there is

:05:05.:05:10.

only going to be one outcome. It happens regularly. It doesn't mean

:05:11.:05:14.

the Tories haven't got their own fragility. Two years ago, David

:05:15.:05:20.

Cameron and George Osborne the dominant figures, neither are in

:05:21.:05:23.

Parliament now which is a symptom of the fragility this election is

:05:24.:05:28.

disguising. Mrs May's position in a way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in

:05:29.:05:34.

the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in

:05:35.:05:38.

France, I won't be outflanked on the right, so the National Front didn't

:05:39.:05:42.

get through either timed he ran to the second round on like this time,

:05:43.:05:47.

and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be outflanked Iver and as a result has

:05:48.:05:52.

seen off right flank. And also she is looking to the left as well with

:05:53.:05:57.

some of the state interventions. What was interesting about the

:05:58.:05:59.

analysis you showed a few minutes ago was the number of Tory

:06:00.:06:03.

candidates who have apparently not declared which way they voted in the

:06:04.:06:08.

referendum, and you would have thought if this election was all

:06:09.:06:12.

about Brexit, as some would claim, that would become an unsustainable

:06:13.:06:16.

position, and actually more it's about leadership. But the point that

:06:17.:06:21.

I'm now hearing from a number of Labour candidates that they are

:06:22.:06:27.

seeing Tory leaflets that don't even have the Tory candidate's name on

:06:28.:06:33.

them, it is just about Theresa May. I am glad they are keeping to the

:06:34.:06:37.

law because by law they have to put it on. It has been harder for some

:06:38.:06:42.

of the smaller parties too because of the speed of the election being

:06:43.:06:49.

called. We have the manifesto is coming out this week. I think Labour

:06:50.:06:54.

Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet sure when the Tories will bring

:06:55.:06:59.

bears out. I suggest one thing, it will at least for people like me

:07:00.:07:04.

bring an end to the question you will have to wait for the manifesto.

:07:05.:07:11.

And Rebecca Long baby will never have that excuse again, isn't it

:07:12.:07:20.

wonderful! She is not the only one. When you are trying to take the

:07:21.:07:24.

north and Midlands from Labour, I would go to one or the other. For

:07:25.:07:30.

me, I can barely hold back my excitement over the Tory manifesto.

:07:31.:07:35.

This will be, I think, the most important day for the British

:07:36.:07:38.

government for the next five years. That wasn't irony there? You

:07:39.:07:46.

actually meant that? I'm not even being cynical at all on Sunday

:07:47.:07:51.

Politics! This is a huge day and it's because I think we will see...

:07:52.:08:00.

I don't think Mrs May will play it safe and I don't think we will get

:08:01.:08:04.

the broadbrush stuff that she might be advised to do. I think she will

:08:05.:08:08.

lay out precisely what you want to do over the next five years and take

:08:09.:08:14.

some big risks. Then finally after a year of this guessing and

:08:15.:08:17.

theorising, we will finally work out what Mrs May is all about. She will

:08:18.:08:21.

say she doesn't want the next parliament to be all about Brexit,

:08:22.:08:24.

though she knows that's the next important thing she has to deliver

:08:25.:08:28.

in some way, so she gets a mandate for that if the polls are right but

:08:29.:08:31.

she does have very different ideas from

:08:32.:08:44.

Mr Cameron about how to run a country. She will I assume one to

:08:45.:08:47.

mandate for what these different ideas are. Otherwise there is no

:08:48.:08:49.

point in holding an early election. You will get a majority, but if you

:08:50.:08:53.

get a mandate to carry on implementing the Cameron and Osborne

:08:54.:08:56.

manifesto it would be utterly pointless. I agree, it is the

:08:57.:08:59.

pivotal event of the election and it will be interesting to see the

:09:00.:09:03.

degree to which she expands on the line which interests me about its

:09:04.:09:08.

time to look at the good that government can do. Because in a way

:09:09.:09:13.

this moves the debate on in UK politics from, from 97 the Blair

:09:14.:09:18.

Brown governments were insecure about arguing about the role of

:09:19.:09:22.

government. Cameron Osborne government similarly so, so here you

:09:23.:09:26.

have a Labour Party talking about the role of government and the

:09:27.:09:30.

state, and Tory leader apparently doing so was well. I think that will

:09:31.:09:34.

be really interesting to see whether it is fleshed out in any significant

:09:35.:09:40.

way. And it is not a natural Tory message. Harold Macmillan talked

:09:41.:09:44.

about the role of the state, Ted Heath Mark two was pretty big on the

:09:45.:09:52.

state, the industrial policy and so on, and even if it is not thought to

:09:53.:09:57.

be that Tory, does she get away with it because she deliver such a big

:09:58.:10:02.

victory if that's what she does deliver? Just inject a little note

:10:03.:10:07.

of scepticism, I wonder how much of this is authentically Theresa May. I

:10:08.:10:14.

was interested to and talk to someone who used to sit in cabinet

:10:15.:10:19.

meetings during which Theresa May never expressed an opinion on

:10:20.:10:23.

anything outside the Home Office briefs. Other ministers were roving

:10:24.:10:29.

all over their colleagues' briefs. So where are the ideas coming from?

:10:30.:10:36.

I think we can point to Nick Timothy. One of her closest advisers

:10:37.:10:41.

in Downing Street. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.

:10:42.:10:48.

On Thursday I think we will all be talking about something called

:10:49.:10:59.

Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the suburb of Birmingham where Nick

:11:00.:11:03.

Timothy comes from, who is very much Theresa May's policy brain and

:11:04.:11:09.

leading inspiration. Urdington Toryism is about connecting the

:11:10.:11:13.

party with traditional working class voters, and their belief to do that

:11:14.:11:18.

is not just taking away government out of their lives but showing them

:11:19.:11:22.

that government can actually help their lives. It can be a force for

:11:23.:11:31.

good to rebuild the trust. A lot of what Mrs May talks about is all...

:11:32.:11:37.

It is talk and then a lot of it suddenly goes by the wayside. What

:11:38.:11:46.

happened to worker directors on the boards. It is designed to appeal to

:11:47.:11:50.

that constituency and then nothing happens. She had an excuse before in

:11:51.:11:55.

the sense that it wasn't in the 2015 manifesto and she had a small

:11:56.:11:59.

majority so therefore she arguably had to water down some of the stuff

:12:00.:12:03.

for example in her Tory conference speech, which had a lot of this

:12:04.:12:07.

active government material in it. If she puts it in the manifesto, it is

:12:08.:12:12.

a sign she plans to do it and will have no excuse if she then gets

:12:13.:12:17.

nervous afterwards because it will be in there. If it wasn't for

:12:18.:12:22.

Brexit, this great overwhelming issue, I think this election will be

:12:23.:12:26.

seen as quite a significant development in terms of an argument

:12:27.:12:31.

around the role of government, much-needed. But Brexit

:12:32.:12:35.

unfortunately overshadows it all. As much as we like our arguments over

:12:36.:12:39.

the role of government we will hear strong and stable, stable and strong

:12:40.:12:47.

ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely, and we heard the same old lines from

:12:48.:12:51.

the Labour Party as well so they are all at it. It will be a fascinating

:12:52.:12:59.

week, stop talking it down! Thanks to our panel.

:13:00.:13:01.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon

:13:02.:13:04.

I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.

:13:05.:13:08.

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Andrew Neil and Richard Moss are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.