Browse content similar to 18/05/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls | :00:53. | :00:57. | |
are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised | :01:03. | :01:06. | |
an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the | :01:07. | :01:11. | |
campaign trail, he has been asking all the big | :01:12. | :01:17. | |
In the North West: Going for a song ` how one council plans to cope with | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
cuts to social care. We'll debate this week, a last look at the euro | :01:22. | :01:24. | |
elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's | :01:25. | :01:35. | |
32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got | :01:36. | :01:40. | |
all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it | :01:41. | :01:47. | |
is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are | :01:52. | :01:55. | |
the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some | :01:56. | :02:00. | |
say that these European and local elections will not be much of a | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political | :02:05. | :02:10. | |
commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is | :02:11. | :02:15. | |
at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European | :02:16. | :02:17. | |
Parliament elections. These local results should be known | :02:18. | :02:41. | |
by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this | :03:03. | :03:05. | |
morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday, | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
and the general election is still wide open - we really are in | :03:09. | :03:13. | |
uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are, | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times | :03:23. | :03:25. | |
showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know | :03:26. | :03:33. | |
that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the | :03:34. | :03:38. | |
major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP | :03:39. | :03:41. | |
success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has | :03:42. | :03:47. | |
been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick | :04:00. | :04:03. | |
Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or | :04:04. | :04:09. | |
four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried. | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his | :04:36. | :04:43. | |
own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the | :04:44. | :04:53. | |
Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly | :04:54. | :04:58. | |
at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what | :05:08. | :05:13. | |
the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second, | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish | :05:29. | :05:31. | |
runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on | :05:32. | :05:34. | |
something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, | :05:35. | :05:41. | |
France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the | :05:52. | :05:55. | |
largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a | :06:25. | :06:28. | |
grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring | :06:51. | :06:53. | |
Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a | :06:58. | :07:08. | |
referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies | :07:12. | :07:16. | |
created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them | :07:17. | :07:21. | |
this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other | :07:26. | :07:28. | |
three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got | :07:29. | :07:34. | |
nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this | :07:35. | :07:41. | |
week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or | :07:42. | :07:44. | |
Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we | :08:04. | :08:09. | |
do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to | :08:14. | :08:16. | |
far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a | :08:17. | :08:23. | |
one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the | :08:24. | :08:25. | |
headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a | :08:26. | :08:33. | |
huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably | :08:38. | :08:39. | |
the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic | :08:40. | :08:46. | |
leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We | :08:58. | :09:03. | |
are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by | :09:04. | :09:10. | |
Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in | :09:25. | :09:28. | |
conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party | :09:39. | :09:44. | |
line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says... | :09:45. | :09:52. | |
On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have | :10:02. | :10:08. | |
put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government | :10:09. | :10:12. | |
level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual, | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find. | :10:30. | :10:35. | |
People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road | :10:48. | :10:53. | |
map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity. | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but | :10:59. | :11:01. | |
there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There | :11:02. | :11:06. | |
is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it. | :11:12. | :11:16. | |
We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What | :11:25. | :11:32. | |
would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975 | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do | :11:50. | :11:58. | |
not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it | :12:03. | :12:10. | |
sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds | :12:15. | :12:21. | |
like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our | :12:25. | :12:28. | |
sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if | :12:29. | :12:32. | |
a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they | :12:48. | :12:57. | |
being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I | :13:02. | :13:04. | |
do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian | :13:05. | :13:08. | |
approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out | :13:17. | :13:18. | |
how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24 | :13:19. | :13:34. | |
hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours | :13:35. | :13:37. | |
in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make | :13:38. | :13:46. | |
up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm | :14:04. | :14:11. | |
welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention. | :14:12. | :14:22. | |
One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got | :14:23. | :14:26. | |
Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members | :14:35. | :14:40. | |
for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top | :14:41. | :14:49. | |
Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in | :14:50. | :14:52. | |
traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in | :14:53. | :14:57. | |
time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We | :15:08. | :15:14. | |
will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the | :15:15. | :15:19. | |
Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the | :15:20. | :15:21. | |
Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses | :15:22. | :15:37. | |
upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. | :15:42. | :15:49. | |
I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about | :15:50. | :15:58. | |
elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at | :15:59. | :16:01. | |
our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in | :16:02. | :16:04. | |
Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was | :16:10. | :16:19. | |
boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just | :16:20. | :16:25. | |
hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them | :16:26. | :16:58. | |
hired Barack Obama's election guru Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're | :16:59. | :17:05. | |
flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right | :17:06. | :17:11. | |
place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning | :17:12. | :17:18. | |
as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president | :17:19. | :18:51. | |
as the party of in. But are they in over the mistakes bankers. You have | :18:52. | :18:56. | |
made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the | :18:57. | :19:03. | |
left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I | :19:08. | :19:15. | |
met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane | :19:16. | :19:18. | |
exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond | :19:19. | :19:24. | |
issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned | :19:25. | :19:28. | |
about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the | :19:29. | :19:33. | |
Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price | :19:34. | :19:39. | |
bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the | :19:40. | :19:46. | |
same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline | :19:47. | :19:56. | |
greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs | :19:57. | :20:00. | |
and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our | :20:01. | :20:06. | |
economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one | :20:10. | :20:16. | |
planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by | :20:17. | :20:22. | |
renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It | :20:28. | :20:33. | |
is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a | :20:34. | :20:37. | |
smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to | :20:38. | :20:43. | |
supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to | :20:44. | :20:48. | |
work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and | :20:49. | :20:59. | |
we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the | :21:04. | :21:13. | |
big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French | :21:14. | :21:24. | |
nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology, | :21:25. | :21:31. | |
going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government | :21:32. | :21:33. | |
proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two | :21:34. | :21:40. | |
plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now. | :21:41. | :21:45. | |
We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more | :21:46. | :21:49. | |
seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined | :21:50. | :21:55. | |
strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's | :21:56. | :22:01. | |
throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise | :22:02. | :22:05. | |
council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by | :22:06. | :22:10. | |
other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at | :22:11. | :22:16. | |
the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor | :22:17. | :22:22. | |
numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in | :22:23. | :22:28. | |
Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a | :22:39. | :22:45. | |
debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have | :22:46. | :22:50. | |
that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be | :22:56. | :22:59. | |
brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride | :23:00. | :23:08. | |
in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in | :23:13. | :23:21. | |
Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between. | :23:27. | :23:33. | |
Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP, | :23:34. | :24:08. | |
the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a | :24:09. | :24:18. | |
European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and | :24:19. | :24:22. | |
only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP | :24:28. | :24:34. | |
party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions | :24:35. | :24:39. | |
usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it | :24:43. | :24:50. | |
suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well | :24:51. | :24:56. | |
either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come | :25:10. | :25:15. | |
out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we | :25:16. | :25:19. | |
want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child | :25:20. | :25:24. | |
tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to | :25:31. | :25:37. | |
halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in | :25:47. | :25:56. | |
the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be | :25:57. | :26:02. | |
lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never | :26:03. | :26:09. | |
knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support | :26:10. | :26:12. | |
because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit | :26:13. | :26:18. | |
like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now | :26:19. | :26:29. | |
we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been | :26:39. | :26:48. | |
shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the | :26:54. | :27:03. | |
jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives | :27:04. | :27:08. | |
comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't | :27:09. | :27:12. | |
really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been | :27:13. | :27:18. | |
there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite | :27:19. | :27:22. | |
being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on | :27:23. | :27:27. | |
Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we | :27:28. | :27:31. | |
wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion. | :27:36. | :27:40. | |
But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have | :27:41. | :27:49. | |
taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We | :27:50. | :27:56. | |
are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our | :27:57. | :28:00. | |
relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why | :28:01. | :28:10. | |
has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your | :28:11. | :28:13. | |
own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we | :28:14. | :28:19. | |
have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will | :28:20. | :28:25. | |
decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is | :28:26. | :28:30. | |
that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon | :28:31. | :28:38. | |
and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband | :28:39. | :28:47. | |
said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy | :28:48. | :28:56. | |
prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower | :28:57. | :29:05. | |
than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David | :29:15. | :29:17. | |
Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing | :29:39. | :29:44. | |
something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of | :29:49. | :29:58. | |
the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
to people about it, people understand that we are better in | :30:09. | :30:11. | |
them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have | :30:17. | :30:19. | |
battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to | :30:20. | :30:24. | |
take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been | :30:25. | :30:29. | |
delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that. | :30:30. | :30:35. | |
-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So, | :30:36. | :30:40. | |
people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's | :30:41. | :30:46. | |
antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
housing they need. We as a government have delivered more | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out | :30:58. | :31:09. | |
that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in | :31:10. | :31:15. | |
2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly | :31:16. | :31:19. | |
half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I | :31:30. | :31:37. | |
would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the | :31:38. | :31:41. | |
deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say | :31:51. | :31:53. | |
that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We | :31:54. | :31:58. | |
need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market. | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are | :32:03. | :32:06. | |
the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any | :32:07. | :32:14. | |
change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree | :32:21. | :32:23. | |
with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now | :32:34. | :32:38. | |
privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the | :32:39. | :32:43. | |
coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level | :32:44. | :32:46. | |
since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies | :32:52. | :32:55. | |
which directly address the problems which people face. I think the | :32:56. | :33:01. | |
public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for | :33:02. | :33:04. | |
the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We | :33:05. | :33:09. | |
are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next | :33:10. | :33:13. | |
time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the | :33:14. | :33:17. | |
relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that. | :33:18. | :33:24. | |
We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum. | :33:25. | :33:31. | |
We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying | :33:32. | :33:37. | |
in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall | :33:38. | :33:39. | |
transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for | :33:40. | :33:49. | |
this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to | :33:50. | :33:55. | |
leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the | :34:00. | :34:04. | |
future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built | :34:05. | :34:10. | |
our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being | :34:20. | :34:24. | |
positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep | :34:25. | :34:27. | |
absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said | :34:28. | :34:31. | |
that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a | :34:36. | :34:41. | |
successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am | :34:42. | :34:51. | |
very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with | :34:52. | :34:57. | |
confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he | :34:58. | :35:03. | |
said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the | :35:04. | :35:07. | |
party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you | :35:08. | :35:11. | |
agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and | :35:12. | :35:15. | |
then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a | :35:16. | :35:20. | |
line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with | :35:21. | :35:23. | |
Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay | :35:24. | :35:28. | |
in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am | :35:29. | :35:32. | |
not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every | :35:33. | :35:36. | |
question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme! | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at | :35:42. | :35:45. | |
our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn, | :35:46. | :35:53. | |
what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems | :35:54. | :35:58. | |
towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then, | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you. | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of | :36:19. | :36:21. | |
powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for | :36:27. | :36:33. | |
economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our | :36:34. | :36:40. | |
relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday | :36:41. | :36:42. | |
will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything | :36:43. | :36:49. | |
you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I | :36:50. | :36:56. | |
am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the | :36:57. | :37:02. | |
dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that | :37:03. | :37:05. | |
Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth | :37:06. | :37:09. | |
is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of | :37:10. | :37:15. | |
a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one | :37:16. | :37:26. | |
more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection | :37:27. | :37:31. | |
with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should | :37:32. | :37:35. | |
vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot | :37:40. | :37:43. | |
more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at | :37:44. | :37:46. | |
Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not | :37:47. | :37:50. | |
been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that | :37:51. | :37:55. | |
is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible | :37:56. | :37:58. | |
of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of | :37:59. | :38:01. | |
the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford. | :38:02. | :38:09. | |
We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it - | :38:10. | :38:16. | |
he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday | :38:17. | :38:20. | |
Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for | :38:21. | :38:25. | |
Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up in | :38:26. | :38:34. | |
Hello. Coming up in the North West: Going for a song ` how one council | :38:35. | :38:46. | |
plans to cope with cuts to adult social care. No singing here in the | :38:47. | :38:52. | |
studio, but joining me ahead of this week's local elections are three | :38:53. | :38:54. | |
council leaders: the Liberal Democrat leader of Stockport, Sue | :38:55. | :38:57. | |
Derbyshire, the Labour leader of Oldham, Jim McMahon and the | :38:58. | :38:59. | |
Conservative leader of Trafford council, Sean Anstee. Welcome to you | :39:00. | :39:08. | |
all. Sue, this week we hear that unemployment has dipped slightly in | :39:09. | :39:12. | |
the North West. Will that play out slightly in the local elections, do | :39:13. | :39:15. | |
you think? I'm not sure it will play out in the local elections. It's | :39:16. | :39:18. | |
obviously important for the individuals looking for work, that | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
jobs are being created. Can you take any credit for that or is it a | :39:23. | :39:26. | |
government thing? I think locally we can take some credit. We work really | :39:27. | :39:30. | |
hard and have schemes to try to promote employment locally and help | :39:31. | :39:37. | |
businesses take people on. Let's take a look at one exchange. It's | :39:38. | :39:42. | |
Prime Minister's Questions. As the Prime Minister has acknowledged, the | :39:43. | :39:45. | |
number of people who are in work who have to claim housing benefit in | :39:46. | :39:49. | |
order to make ends meet is growing. The cost of that will be an extra ?5 | :39:50. | :39:53. | |
billion over the course of parliament. Does the Prime Minister | :39:54. | :39:56. | |
really consider that a sign of success? The good news from his seat | :39:57. | :40:07. | |
is unemployment ` down 31%. Some of those people in work are claiming | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
housing benefit, but because of this government's long`term economic | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
plan, more of his constituents are in work and earning. Jim, what do | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
you think? Are things getting better? I think you need to look | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
beyond the numbers being put across as a measure of unemployment. The | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
government will use the job`seeker's Allowance target. But in most areas, | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
those numbers can't be relied on. They can't give an accurate | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
impression of unemployment. For example, if you believe the | :40:34. | :40:36. | |
government, unemployment in Oldham has fallen by 45%. The reality is, | :40:37. | :40:41. | |
when you include Universal Credit, it's more like 22%. Nearly half the | :40:42. | :40:47. | |
people they say are in work aren't. They've been taken from job`seeker's | :40:48. | :40:49. | |
Allowance and put on Universal Credit. So it's getting better but | :40:50. | :40:57. | |
not as good as the government says? Is it about secure, long`term | :40:58. | :41:02. | |
unemployment... If that's a measure of success, the government has | :41:03. | :41:06. | |
failed. The number of people in part`time work, who want to be | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
full`time, has risen significantly. The number of people on zero`hour | :41:11. | :41:13. | |
contracts has risen. The number of people being paid the minimum wage | :41:14. | :41:19. | |
is higher than it's ever been. It's not enough to pay the bills. Sean, | :41:20. | :41:22. | |
we're hearing this is more about statistics than reality? I don't | :41:23. | :41:29. | |
think it is. We're seeing more jobs in this country than ever before. | :41:30. | :41:34. | |
The north of the country is benefiting from that. This is a | :41:35. | :41:36. | |
Conservative`led government, delivering on its promises. Locally, | :41:37. | :41:46. | |
we're working hard. There's a significant improvement on a few | :41:47. | :41:50. | |
years ago. We've got more work to do but I think it's great that more | :41:51. | :41:55. | |
people are in work, earning. What do you say... It's also about switching | :41:56. | :42:02. | |
people to Universal Credit? If we're debating whether 45% or 22% is a | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
good thing, more people in work is a great thing. It's working. I don't | :42:07. | :42:18. | |
accept that any work is better than none if you don't have security. If | :42:19. | :42:22. | |
you have a zero`hours contract you can't get a mortgage. Mortgage | :42:23. | :42:24. | |
providers want security. That affects how people live. If you want | :42:25. | :42:30. | |
to be full`time, so you can pay the bills and have a reasonable | :42:31. | :42:37. | |
lifestyle... Across the country, the average contract is 32 hours. | :42:38. | :42:46. | |
Productivity is going down because people are sharing out. It's not | :42:47. | :42:49. | |
good for the UK economy and from a European point of view it doesn't | :42:50. | :42:53. | |
make us competitive. Let's move on. The burning issue | :42:54. | :43:43. | |
open to abuse. They could be breaking regulations and given | :43:44. | :43:45. | |
people radiation poisoning. you need? We want to have more | :43:46. | :44:49. | |
control and drive our own future. At the moment, we're dependent on | :44:50. | :44:52. | |
government to choose the issue of the day. The issue in Oldham might | :44:53. | :44:57. | |
be different from the issue in Stockport or Trafford. We want to | :44:58. | :45:03. | |
define our own future. It took too long for the government to realise | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
bookmakers were an issue. They'd spread out by that point. We want to | :45:08. | :45:15. | |
limit future bookmakers, but now we're stuck with the ones we've got. | :45:16. | :45:20. | |
But do you accept the government has devolved more powers to local | :45:21. | :45:24. | |
government than you used to have? If you look at centrally`derived | :45:25. | :45:26. | |
legislation, with Eric Pickles on his bandwagon... Government can't | :45:27. | :45:42. | |
let go. We're saying, rather than giving us this here and there, give | :45:43. | :45:57. | |
us genuine devolution. So we can decide ourselves. Sue, does London | :45:58. | :46:00. | |
'get' local government in the North West? No. I don't think it gets | :46:01. | :46:04. | |
local government anywhere. There's a real divide between how Westminster | :46:05. | :46:07. | |
views the world and how local government does. There's a lack of | :46:08. | :46:12. | |
trust... They think you're wasting money or something? It's easy to | :46:13. | :46:16. | |
blame us ` we work within restrictions. Local government is | :46:17. | :46:20. | |
the most efficient part of government. When given the ability, | :46:21. | :46:30. | |
we deliver the outcomes central government wants, better than their | :46:31. | :46:38. | |
own departments. Sean, what's your take on how much power you've | :46:39. | :46:46. | |
actually got? All local authorities have a general power of competence. | :46:47. | :46:50. | |
It devolves power down so we can make decisions. It's a big step | :46:51. | :46:59. | |
forward. There's an awful lot more to do. Especially in Greater | :47:00. | :47:10. | |
Manchester. We can work together effectively. But what's stopping | :47:11. | :47:15. | |
you? If you've got that power... Why do you need... Why can't you do | :47:16. | :47:22. | |
certain things? Well, can a council make a decision that it wouldn't | :47:23. | :47:28. | |
normally be permitted to? The wider point is that there are still things | :47:29. | :47:32. | |
part of central government that we think we can do better locally. | :47:33. | :47:37. | |
That's the difference. What would you like to be able to do? In | :47:38. | :47:41. | |
Greater Manchester, we're taking steps on transport and the economy. | :47:42. | :47:46. | |
We need more of an ability to collaborate with each other. We can | :47:47. | :47:56. | |
deliver better outcomes. Well, the main reason my guests are | :47:57. | :48:00. | |
here is to explain why their party should be running your councils. | :48:01. | :48:03. | |
Let's remind ourselves of what's up for grabs. When we go to the polls | :48:04. | :48:08. | |
on Thursday, 26 councils across the North West are holding elections for | :48:09. | :48:12. | |
a third of their seats. Labour controls 21, including Manchester | :48:13. | :48:16. | |
and Liverpool. The Conservatives ` two. The Lib Dems ` one. Two are | :48:17. | :48:27. | |
under no overall control, so where's the excitement? There are two huge | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
contests ` Trafford and West Lancashire. The Conservatives are | :48:32. | :48:34. | |
desperate to defend. Labour are extremely keen to win. If Labour | :48:35. | :48:38. | |
took them from Conservative control, Ed Miliband could expect to be Prime | :48:39. | :48:43. | |
Minister this time next year. Labour have also got designs on two | :48:44. | :48:48. | |
councils under no overall control. They have a reasonable expectation | :48:49. | :48:51. | |
of taking them. Then there's the Lib Dem meltdown. They've lost almost | :48:52. | :48:56. | |
half their councils here in the North West over the last four years. | :48:57. | :49:02. | |
How low can they go? So what will be the challenges for whoever wins? The | :49:03. | :49:05. | |
biggest one will remain how to provide good services with less | :49:06. | :49:08. | |
money. We've been looking at how some of our councils are trying to | :49:09. | :49:15. | |
manage it. From care homes to school dinners, | :49:16. | :49:18. | |
throughout the decades these services would be provided by the | :49:19. | :49:24. | |
local authority. But in times of efficiencies, savings and cuts, the | :49:25. | :49:27. | |
way local services operate and deliver services are changing. In | :49:28. | :49:34. | |
Trafford, the bins are now collected by a private company. The council | :49:35. | :49:40. | |
and the rest of Greater Manchester is also looking at plans to put | :49:41. | :49:43. | |
street cleaning, road repairs and street lighting into private hands. | :49:44. | :49:53. | |
Outsourcing... All those words... They've been used for a long time, | :49:54. | :49:57. | |
not just in England. It's a mechanism for getting more for less. | :49:58. | :50:03. | |
The choice of organisational form is important. This singing session is | :50:04. | :50:11. | |
for people with dementia. It's run by volunteers and the council | :50:12. | :50:19. | |
provides the venue. Other adult services in Salford could soon be | :50:20. | :50:32. | |
run as a mutual. It means it would be owned by staff and service users. | :50:33. | :50:36. | |
The idea of not working for the council is something I wouldn't have | :50:37. | :50:42. | |
dreamed of. Mutuals, if it fits... Services for the people by the | :50:43. | :50:48. | |
people is catching on with councils. But is it a case of smoking mirrors? | :50:49. | :50:57. | |
It's like throwing the issue back to the workforce. 'You solve the | :50:58. | :51:02. | |
problem'. It's another form of cuts. The fact of the matter is, if there | :51:03. | :51:12. | |
are cuts, it's duping the workforce. Councils may be short on money, but | :51:13. | :51:16. | |
not on choice when it comes to how services are provided. The key issue | :51:17. | :51:24. | |
is making the right choice. Talking about the right choice, you | :51:25. | :51:29. | |
want to privatise more services? We've got a choice about how we cope | :51:30. | :51:34. | |
with the next three years. How you sustain discretionary services. | :51:35. | :51:41. | |
Parks and so on. There are two choices ` stop them or think | :51:42. | :51:45. | |
differently. Using the private sector is one option we're | :51:46. | :51:49. | |
exploring. The bins are already collected. There has to be | :51:50. | :52:01. | |
accountability, but if we can sustain a service it's better than | :52:02. | :52:08. | |
not having it at all. But do you think privatising it would just mean | :52:09. | :52:12. | |
the service remains, or would it get better? There are huge options. We | :52:13. | :52:26. | |
want to be able to say these are the expectations, how can we generate an | :52:27. | :52:29. | |
income. These are the standards, let's improve them and use the | :52:30. | :52:40. | |
economies of scale. It's important there's governance. We make | :52:41. | :52:48. | |
decisions for the long`term. That's the driving factor. Sue, you're not | :52:49. | :52:57. | |
entirely convinced? In Stockport we created solutions for our bin | :52:58. | :53:05. | |
collections. We're not part of the current bid most of the other | :53:06. | :53:13. | |
authorities are in. We have to look at how we deliver services. How we | :53:14. | :53:19. | |
do them in the best possible way. So why aren't you keen to go down that | :53:20. | :53:24. | |
road? We already have an independent company doing the work. We're | :53:25. | :53:36. | |
reviewing whether that suits us. We might use others. We're not | :53:37. | :53:42. | |
convinced pure privatisation would save us the money. We need to look | :53:43. | :53:47. | |
at how we do it. In Oldham, you are considering this? Categorically not! | :53:48. | :53:55. | |
We were included, as all authorities were, in the exercise. But when any | :53:56. | :53:59. | |
of us are going out, we're automatically included. We're not | :54:00. | :54:08. | |
duplicated. We're not interested in this. There's a danger that we look | :54:09. | :54:13. | |
at that as the solution but we already provide value for money. | :54:14. | :54:25. | |
We've modernised. We're working a seven`day week for street cleaning. | :54:26. | :54:31. | |
So what do you say when people say we want to keep these going but | :54:32. | :54:41. | |
something has to change? It's not the answer. If you want to look at | :54:42. | :54:46. | |
somebody to run these things, talk to us and we'll do it. We're very | :54:47. | :54:58. | |
cheap and do an excellent job. All councils have to think creatively. | :54:59. | :55:10. | |
We're going through a process to think whether we could use a private | :55:11. | :55:22. | |
sector partner... Use a mutual... Collaborate... But why go down that | :55:23. | :55:26. | |
route when these two say they can manage? This is a sensationalist | :55:27. | :55:29. | |
debate. They're contributing to help councils deliver their services. | :55:30. | :55:31. | |
This isn't new. It's happened for years. Look at Trafford. There are | :55:32. | :55:38. | |
great examples and some that aren't. If there's a way of sustaining a | :55:39. | :55:41. | |
service, we're going through a process to say we have to think | :55:42. | :55:54. | |
differently. We've heard from the three main parties who run councils | :55:55. | :55:57. | |
across the North West. What about some of the others standing? The | :55:58. | :56:05. | |
cuts have gone too far. We've seen a welfare safety net snatched away. We | :56:06. | :56:09. | |
need to support the most vulnerable. One million people last year | :56:10. | :56:15. | |
depended on food banks. In the world's sixth richest economy. It's | :56:16. | :56:19. | |
not right. Labour has lost five million votes since 1997. These | :56:20. | :56:25. | |
people ` the left behind ` are looking for something different. | :56:26. | :56:31. | |
Something new. They're looking for UKIP. Let's pick up on UKIP. Jim, | :56:32. | :56:39. | |
some former Labour people have turned to UKIP. They're trying to | :56:40. | :56:49. | |
win votes from you? Up and down the country, UKIP are a ramshackle group | :56:50. | :56:52. | |
of people. Brought together from a range of interests. Nobody has a | :56:53. | :56:58. | |
clue what they stand for. But they're very popular? Getting out | :56:59. | :57:06. | |
Europe... Stopping immigration... The media are obsessed with this | :57:07. | :57:17. | |
'new' party. It's a European debate. We're talking about local council | :57:18. | :57:22. | |
services. When I go out to the doorsteps, they're pleased with the | :57:23. | :57:30. | |
council and get what we want to do. People are making a conscious | :57:31. | :57:33. | |
decision to separate out the European elections. Even on postal | :57:34. | :57:41. | |
vote returns, we're seeing that people are voting in the local | :57:42. | :57:44. | |
elections and perhaps not taking their vote for the Europeans. | :57:45. | :57:47. | |
Ultimately, UKIP hurt the Tories more. They're targeting marginal | :57:48. | :57:59. | |
wards? Well, none of them have put forward a proposal to say what they | :58:00. | :58:03. | |
would do with the council over the coming years. They should do. If | :58:04. | :58:10. | |
they're sensible, they should be able to say their policies. Neither | :58:11. | :58:17. | |
do the Labour Party. They're standing in some of our seats, but | :58:18. | :58:20. | |
I'm putting forward a message why people should continue to vote | :58:21. | :58:30. | |
Conservative. But in the meantime, a lot of voters seem to have gone off | :58:31. | :58:36. | |
you? We have a strong argument to be able to say you need to keep a | :58:37. | :58:39. | |
Conservative council ` the lowest council tax in the North West, 10p | :58:40. | :58:46. | |
car parking, libraries protected... These are real decisions and we want | :58:47. | :58:52. | |
to keep delivering. Sue, how low can the Lib Dems go? I can't answer that | :58:53. | :59:00. | |
but I'm confident that people in Stockport recognise our value. We | :59:01. | :59:12. | |
ran the council for a while. The 80s, 90s... People don't want to | :59:13. | :59:22. | |
see... They like the way it's run. There is a need for opposition. The | :59:23. | :59:28. | |
rise of UKIP means people feel alienated. Lots of people have | :59:29. | :59:40. | |
suffered ` the financial crash hit everybody. The measures taken to | :59:41. | :59:43. | |
redress the economy have not been easy. We'll see how they get on. | :59:44. | :59:52. | |
It's time for the rest of the week's news now. | :59:53. | :59:58. | |
Bolton MP Yasmin Qureshi is leading calls for a public enquiry into drug | :59:59. | :00:03. | |
use for a pregnancy test in the 70s. Some families say it led to birth | :00:04. | :00:06. | |
defects. It's emerged that a Manchester | :00:07. | :00:10. | |
restaurant, run by the sons of one of UKIP's top candidates, was fined | :00:11. | :00:13. | |
last year for employing illegal immigrants. The candidate is | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
standing in Yorkshire and his family are appealing. | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
The Commons Business Committee challenged bosses from American | :00:24. | :00:26. | |
giant Pfizer over its plans to buy AstraZeneca. The drug company | :00:27. | :00:30. | |
employs 5,000 people across the region. | :00:31. | :00:34. | |
'Bird brained' was the RSPB's verdict on plans for a cull along | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
the Lancashire coast. It's challenged the government's backing | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
for a plan that BAE Systems proposed, to stop birds being sucked | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
into jet engines. And the Mayor of Liverpool says this | :00:47. | :00:49. | |
year's International Music Festival is good value for money despite | :00:50. | :00:52. | |
wide`ranging council cuts elsewhere. The festival is council about half | :00:53. | :01:04. | |
as much as its predecessor. Before we go, a reminder that voting | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
in the local elections and European elections takes place on Thursday. | :01:09. | :01:19. | |
More details on the website. That's it from us. Time to thank all of my | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
guests ` Jim, Sue and Sean. Back to Andrew in London. | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew. | :01:28. | :01:38. | |
Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls | :01:39. | :01:45. | |
do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune | :01:46. | :01:50. | |
on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take | :01:51. | :01:56. | |
a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European | :01:57. | :02:00. | |
Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By | :02:01. | :02:05. | |
April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both | :02:10. | :02:15. | |
cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election. | :02:16. | :02:28. | |
Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most | :02:29. | :02:35. | |
unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We | :02:36. | :02:41. | |
are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes. | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the | :02:46. | :02:50. | |
European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten, | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them | :03:14. | :03:19. | |
democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are | :03:20. | :03:28. | |
going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come | :03:29. | :03:33. | |
the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of | :03:38. | :03:42. | |
pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on | :03:48. | :04:02. | |
voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now | :04:03. | :04:10. | |
a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods? | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to | :04:17. | :04:22. | |
happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We | :04:41. | :04:47. | |
know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
establishment party should be worried, because the people voting | :05:04. | :05:07. | |
for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment. | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues, | :05:32. | :05:37. | |
where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections, | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote | :05:48. | :05:55. | |
would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any | :05:56. | :05:59. | |
European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much | :06:00. | :06:02. | |
attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic | :06:07. | :06:11. | |
of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on | :06:17. | :06:20. | |
the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not | :06:21. | :06:26. | |
entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are | :06:27. | :06:33. | |
completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more | :06:54. | :06:56. | |
motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right. | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed | :07:09. | :07:12. | |
with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do | :07:13. | :07:16. | |
it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we | :07:17. | :07:19. | |
want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left | :07:20. | :07:25. | |
the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how | :07:30. | :07:34. | |
many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is | :07:35. | :07:41. | |
saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street | :07:46. | :07:48. | |
are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of | :07:53. | :07:59. | |
polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which | :08:00. | :08:03. | |
may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask | :08:08. | :08:12. | |
people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they | :08:13. | :08:44. | |
people how likely they are to vote parties. I do not think we can tell | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the | :08:55. | :09:06. | |
screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
be in some trouble. The Labour see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could | :09:11. | :10:44. | |
thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris | :10:45. | :10:48. | |
Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But | :10:54. | :11:01. | |
where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called | :11:02. | :11:03. | |
Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently. | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this | :11:31. | :11:33. | |
rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in | :11:38. | :11:44. | |
the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on | :11:49. | :11:53. | |
your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue. | :12:03. | :12:07. | |
The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison. | :12:12. | :12:14. | |
Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount - | :12:15. | :12:20. | |
Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David | :12:21. | :12:25. | |
Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that | :12:26. | :12:31. | |
matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like | :12:32. | :12:37. | |
Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually, | :12:43. | :12:45. | |
the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable. | :12:51. | :12:57. | |
Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of | :13:17. | :13:20. | |
course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily | :13:21. | :13:23. | |
Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next | :13:24. | :13:28. | |
Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it | :13:29. | :13:32. | |
is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics. | :13:33. | :13:38. |