18/05/2014 Sunday Politics North West


18/05/2014

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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

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election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

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on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

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on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

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are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

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difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

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an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

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campaign trail, he has been asking all the big

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In the North West: Going for a song ` how one council plans to cope with

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cuts to social care. We'll debate this week, a last look at the euro

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elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

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32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

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all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

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is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

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elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

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the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

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say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

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pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political

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commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is

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at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European

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Parliament elections. These local results should be known

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by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the

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European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let

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it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced

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until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member

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states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this

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morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,

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and the general election is still wide open - we really are in

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uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,

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because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst

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those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times

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showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know

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that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the

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major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP

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success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has

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been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party

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is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next

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week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders

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who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick

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Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or

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four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he

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should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral

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force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a

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couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one

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who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr

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Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.

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The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his

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own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the

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Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly

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at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England

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has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England

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now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what

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the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,

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it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections

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began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they

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finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish

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runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on

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something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,

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France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first

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past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a

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situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the

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largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of

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seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two

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parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's

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speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP

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claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on

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Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become

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a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a

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grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are

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going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this

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earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we

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will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election

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manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and

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putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring

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Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of

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power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a

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referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up

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party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies

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created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them

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this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more

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robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other

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three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got

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nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this

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week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or

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Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on

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all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been

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involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am

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not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably

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needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any

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worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we

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do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they

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know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to

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far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a

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one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the

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headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a

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huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople

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across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably

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the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic

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leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

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our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

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more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We

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are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

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Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

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television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

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much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

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the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

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conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

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joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

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UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

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line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...

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On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

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obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

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manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

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put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government

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level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,

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local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

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school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

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interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

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party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

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People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

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party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

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to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

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road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

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map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

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Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

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there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

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is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

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detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

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We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

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position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

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deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

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would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

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back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

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agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

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European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

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involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

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not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it

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sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

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better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

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like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

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manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

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sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

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a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

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surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

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next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

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from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

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being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

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trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

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do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

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approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

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learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

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economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

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how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

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hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

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in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

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up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

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Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

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and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

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eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

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producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

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welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

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One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

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Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

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that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

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it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

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for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

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Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

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traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

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time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

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Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

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even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

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will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

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Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

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Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

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upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

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referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

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I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

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elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

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our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

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Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

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chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

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boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

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hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them

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hired Barack Obama's election guru Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

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flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

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place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

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as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president

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as the party of in. But are they in over the mistakes bankers. You have

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made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

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left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

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vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

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met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

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exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

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issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

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about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

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Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

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bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

:19:40.:19:46.

same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

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greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

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and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

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economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

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sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

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planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

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renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

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days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

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is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

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smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

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supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

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work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

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we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is

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owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

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big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

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nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

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going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

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proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

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plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

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We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

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seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

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strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

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throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

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council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

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other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

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the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

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numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

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Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

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the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

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Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

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debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have

:22:46.:22:50.

that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city

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should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

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brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

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in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

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people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

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Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

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most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

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Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

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the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

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European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

:24:19.:24:22.

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

:24:23.:24:27.

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

:24:28.:24:34.

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

:24:35.:24:39.

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

:24:40.:24:42.

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

:24:43.:24:50.

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

:24:51.:24:56.

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

:24:57.:25:00.

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

:25:01.:25:05.

not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

:25:06.:25:09.

hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

:25:10.:25:15.

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

:25:16.:25:19.

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

:25:20.:25:24.

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

:25:25.:25:30.

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

:25:31.:25:37.

halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

:25:38.:25:41.

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

:25:42.:25:46.

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

:25:47.:25:56.

the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

:25:57.:26:02.

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

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knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

:26:10.:26:12.

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

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like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

:26:19.:26:29.

we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

:26:30.:26:33.

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

:26:34.:26:38.

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

:26:39.:26:48.

shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

:26:49.:26:53.

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

:26:54.:27:03.

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

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comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

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really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

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there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

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being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

:27:23.:27:27.

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

:27:28.:27:31.

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

:27:32.:27:35.

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

:27:36.:27:40.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

:27:41.:27:49.

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

:27:50.:27:56.

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

:27:57.:28:00.

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

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has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

:28:11.:28:13.

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

:28:14.:28:19.

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

:28:20.:28:25.

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

:28:26.:28:30.

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

:28:31.:28:38.

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

:28:39.:28:47.

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

:28:48.:28:56.

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

:28:57.:29:05.

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

:29:06.:29:09.

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

:29:10.:29:14.

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

:29:15.:29:17.

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

:29:18.:29:23.

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

:29:24.:29:27.

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

:29:28.:29:33.

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

:29:34.:29:38.

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

:29:39.:29:44.

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

:29:45.:29:48.

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

:29:49.:29:58.

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

:29:59.:30:02.

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

:30:03.:30:08.

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

:30:09.:30:11.

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

:30:12.:30:16.

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

:30:17.:30:19.

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

:30:20.:30:24.

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

:30:25.:30:29.

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

:30:30.:30:35.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

:30:36.:30:40.

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

:30:41.:30:46.

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

:30:47.:30:49.

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

:30:50.:30:54.

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

:30:55.:30:57.

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

:30:58.:31:09.

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

:31:10.:31:15.

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

:31:16.:31:19.

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

:31:20.:31:25.

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

:31:26.:31:29.

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

:31:30.:31:37.

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

:31:38.:31:41.

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

:31:42.:31:45.

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

:31:46.:31:50.

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

:31:51.:31:53.

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

:31:54.:31:58.

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

:31:59.:32:02.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

:32:03.:32:06.

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

:32:07.:32:14.

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

:32:15.:32:20.

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

:32:21.:32:23.

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

:32:24.:32:29.

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

:32:30.:32:33.

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

:32:34.:32:38.

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

:32:39.:32:43.

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

:32:44.:32:46.

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

:32:47.:32:51.

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

:32:52.:32:55.

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

:32:56.:33:01.

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

:33:02.:33:04.

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We

:33:05.:33:09.

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

:33:10.:33:13.

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

:33:14.:33:17.

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

:33:18.:33:24.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

:33:25.:33:31.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

:33:32.:33:37.

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

:33:38.:33:39.

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

:33:40.:33:49.

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

:33:50.:33:55.

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

:33:56.:33:59.

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

:34:00.:34:04.

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

:34:05.:34:10.

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

:34:11.:34:14.

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

:34:15.:34:19.

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

:34:20.:34:24.

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

:34:25.:34:27.

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

:34:28.:34:31.

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

:34:32.:34:35.

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

:34:36.:34:41.

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

:34:42.:34:51.

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

:34:52.:34:57.

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

:34:58.:35:03.

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

:35:04.:35:07.

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

:35:08.:35:11.

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

:35:12.:35:15.

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

:35:16.:35:20.

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

:35:21.:35:23.

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

:35:24.:35:28.

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

:35:29.:35:32.

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

:35:33.:35:36.

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

:35:37.:35:41.

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

:35:42.:35:45.

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,

:35:46.:35:53.

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

:35:54.:35:58.

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

:35:59.:36:02.

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

:36:03.:36:07.

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

:36:08.:36:13.

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

:36:14.:36:18.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

:36:19.:36:21.

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

:36:22.:36:26.

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

:36:27.:36:33.

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

:36:34.:36:40.

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

:36:41.:36:42.

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

:36:43.:36:49.

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

:36:50.:36:56.

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

:36:57.:37:02.

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

:37:03.:37:05.

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

:37:06.:37:09.

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

:37:10.:37:15.

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

:37:16.:37:26.

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

:37:27.:37:31.

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

:37:32.:37:35.

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

:37:36.:37:39.

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

:37:40.:37:43.

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

:37:44.:37:46.

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

:37:47.:37:50.

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

:37:51.:37:55.

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

:37:56.:37:58.

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

:37:59.:38:01.

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

:38:02.:38:09.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

:38:10.:38:16.

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

:38:17.:38:20.

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

:38:21.:38:25.

Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up in

:38:26.:38:34.

Hello. Coming up in the North West: Going for a song ` how one council

:38:35.:38:46.

plans to cope with cuts to adult social care. No singing here in the

:38:47.:38:52.

studio, but joining me ahead of this week's local elections are three

:38:53.:38:54.

council leaders: the Liberal Democrat leader of Stockport, Sue

:38:55.:38:57.

Derbyshire, the Labour leader of Oldham, Jim McMahon and the

:38:58.:38:59.

Conservative leader of Trafford council, Sean Anstee. Welcome to you

:39:00.:39:08.

all. Sue, this week we hear that unemployment has dipped slightly in

:39:09.:39:12.

the North West. Will that play out slightly in the local elections, do

:39:13.:39:15.

you think? I'm not sure it will play out in the local elections. It's

:39:16.:39:18.

obviously important for the individuals looking for work, that

:39:19.:39:22.

jobs are being created. Can you take any credit for that or is it a

:39:23.:39:26.

government thing? I think locally we can take some credit. We work really

:39:27.:39:30.

hard and have schemes to try to promote employment locally and help

:39:31.:39:37.

businesses take people on. Let's take a look at one exchange. It's

:39:38.:39:42.

Prime Minister's Questions. As the Prime Minister has acknowledged, the

:39:43.:39:45.

number of people who are in work who have to claim housing benefit in

:39:46.:39:49.

order to make ends meet is growing. The cost of that will be an extra ?5

:39:50.:39:53.

billion over the course of parliament. Does the Prime Minister

:39:54.:39:56.

really consider that a sign of success? The good news from his seat

:39:57.:40:07.

is unemployment ` down 31%. Some of those people in work are claiming

:40:08.:40:10.

housing benefit, but because of this government's long`term economic

:40:11.:40:13.

plan, more of his constituents are in work and earning. Jim, what do

:40:14.:40:19.

you think? Are things getting better? I think you need to look

:40:20.:40:22.

beyond the numbers being put across as a measure of unemployment. The

:40:23.:40:26.

government will use the job`seeker's Allowance target. But in most areas,

:40:27.:40:29.

those numbers can't be relied on. They can't give an accurate

:40:30.:40:33.

impression of unemployment. For example, if you believe the

:40:34.:40:36.

government, unemployment in Oldham has fallen by 45%. The reality is,

:40:37.:40:41.

when you include Universal Credit, it's more like 22%. Nearly half the

:40:42.:40:47.

people they say are in work aren't. They've been taken from job`seeker's

:40:48.:40:49.

Allowance and put on Universal Credit. So it's getting better but

:40:50.:40:57.

not as good as the government says? Is it about secure, long`term

:40:58.:41:02.

unemployment... If that's a measure of success, the government has

:41:03.:41:06.

failed. The number of people in part`time work, who want to be

:41:07.:41:10.

full`time, has risen significantly. The number of people on zero`hour

:41:11.:41:13.

contracts has risen. The number of people being paid the minimum wage

:41:14.:41:19.

is higher than it's ever been. It's not enough to pay the bills. Sean,

:41:20.:41:22.

we're hearing this is more about statistics than reality? I don't

:41:23.:41:29.

think it is. We're seeing more jobs in this country than ever before.

:41:30.:41:34.

The north of the country is benefiting from that. This is a

:41:35.:41:36.

Conservative`led government, delivering on its promises. Locally,

:41:37.:41:46.

we're working hard. There's a significant improvement on a few

:41:47.:41:50.

years ago. We've got more work to do but I think it's great that more

:41:51.:41:55.

people are in work, earning. What do you say... It's also about switching

:41:56.:42:02.

people to Universal Credit? If we're debating whether 45% or 22% is a

:42:03.:42:06.

good thing, more people in work is a great thing. It's working. I don't

:42:07.:42:18.

accept that any work is better than none if you don't have security. If

:42:19.:42:22.

you have a zero`hours contract you can't get a mortgage. Mortgage

:42:23.:42:24.

providers want security. That affects how people live. If you want

:42:25.:42:30.

to be full`time, so you can pay the bills and have a reasonable

:42:31.:42:37.

lifestyle... Across the country, the average contract is 32 hours.

:42:38.:42:46.

Productivity is going down because people are sharing out. It's not

:42:47.:42:49.

good for the UK economy and from a European point of view it doesn't

:42:50.:42:53.

make us competitive. Let's move on. The burning issue

:42:54.:43:43.

open to abuse. They could be breaking regulations and given

:43:44.:43:45.

people radiation poisoning. you need? We want to have more

:43:46.:44:49.

control and drive our own future. At the moment, we're dependent on

:44:50.:44:52.

government to choose the issue of the day. The issue in Oldham might

:44:53.:44:57.

be different from the issue in Stockport or Trafford. We want to

:44:58.:45:03.

define our own future. It took too long for the government to realise

:45:04.:45:07.

bookmakers were an issue. They'd spread out by that point. We want to

:45:08.:45:15.

limit future bookmakers, but now we're stuck with the ones we've got.

:45:16.:45:20.

But do you accept the government has devolved more powers to local

:45:21.:45:24.

government than you used to have? If you look at centrally`derived

:45:25.:45:26.

legislation, with Eric Pickles on his bandwagon... Government can't

:45:27.:45:42.

let go. We're saying, rather than giving us this here and there, give

:45:43.:45:57.

us genuine devolution. So we can decide ourselves. Sue, does London

:45:58.:46:00.

'get' local government in the North West? No. I don't think it gets

:46:01.:46:04.

local government anywhere. There's a real divide between how Westminster

:46:05.:46:07.

views the world and how local government does. There's a lack of

:46:08.:46:12.

trust... They think you're wasting money or something? It's easy to

:46:13.:46:16.

blame us ` we work within restrictions. Local government is

:46:17.:46:20.

the most efficient part of government. When given the ability,

:46:21.:46:30.

we deliver the outcomes central government wants, better than their

:46:31.:46:38.

own departments. Sean, what's your take on how much power you've

:46:39.:46:46.

actually got? All local authorities have a general power of competence.

:46:47.:46:50.

It devolves power down so we can make decisions. It's a big step

:46:51.:46:59.

forward. There's an awful lot more to do. Especially in Greater

:47:00.:47:10.

Manchester. We can work together effectively. But what's stopping

:47:11.:47:15.

you? If you've got that power... Why do you need... Why can't you do

:47:16.:47:22.

certain things? Well, can a council make a decision that it wouldn't

:47:23.:47:28.

normally be permitted to? The wider point is that there are still things

:47:29.:47:32.

part of central government that we think we can do better locally.

:47:33.:47:37.

That's the difference. What would you like to be able to do? In

:47:38.:47:41.

Greater Manchester, we're taking steps on transport and the economy.

:47:42.:47:46.

We need more of an ability to collaborate with each other. We can

:47:47.:47:56.

deliver better outcomes. Well, the main reason my guests are

:47:57.:48:00.

here is to explain why their party should be running your councils.

:48:01.:48:03.

Let's remind ourselves of what's up for grabs. When we go to the polls

:48:04.:48:08.

on Thursday, 26 councils across the North West are holding elections for

:48:09.:48:12.

a third of their seats. Labour controls 21, including Manchester

:48:13.:48:16.

and Liverpool. The Conservatives ` two. The Lib Dems ` one. Two are

:48:17.:48:27.

under no overall control, so where's the excitement? There are two huge

:48:28.:48:31.

contests ` Trafford and West Lancashire. The Conservatives are

:48:32.:48:34.

desperate to defend. Labour are extremely keen to win. If Labour

:48:35.:48:38.

took them from Conservative control, Ed Miliband could expect to be Prime

:48:39.:48:43.

Minister this time next year. Labour have also got designs on two

:48:44.:48:48.

councils under no overall control. They have a reasonable expectation

:48:49.:48:51.

of taking them. Then there's the Lib Dem meltdown. They've lost almost

:48:52.:48:56.

half their councils here in the North West over the last four years.

:48:57.:49:02.

How low can they go? So what will be the challenges for whoever wins? The

:49:03.:49:05.

biggest one will remain how to provide good services with less

:49:06.:49:08.

money. We've been looking at how some of our councils are trying to

:49:09.:49:15.

manage it. From care homes to school dinners,

:49:16.:49:18.

throughout the decades these services would be provided by the

:49:19.:49:24.

local authority. But in times of efficiencies, savings and cuts, the

:49:25.:49:27.

way local services operate and deliver services are changing. In

:49:28.:49:34.

Trafford, the bins are now collected by a private company. The council

:49:35.:49:40.

and the rest of Greater Manchester is also looking at plans to put

:49:41.:49:43.

street cleaning, road repairs and street lighting into private hands.

:49:44.:49:53.

Outsourcing... All those words... They've been used for a long time,

:49:54.:49:57.

not just in England. It's a mechanism for getting more for less.

:49:58.:50:03.

The choice of organisational form is important. This singing session is

:50:04.:50:11.

for people with dementia. It's run by volunteers and the council

:50:12.:50:19.

provides the venue. Other adult services in Salford could soon be

:50:20.:50:32.

run as a mutual. It means it would be owned by staff and service users.

:50:33.:50:36.

The idea of not working for the council is something I wouldn't have

:50:37.:50:42.

dreamed of. Mutuals, if it fits... Services for the people by the

:50:43.:50:48.

people is catching on with councils. But is it a case of smoking mirrors?

:50:49.:50:57.

It's like throwing the issue back to the workforce. 'You solve the

:50:58.:51:02.

problem'. It's another form of cuts. The fact of the matter is, if there

:51:03.:51:12.

are cuts, it's duping the workforce. Councils may be short on money, but

:51:13.:51:16.

not on choice when it comes to how services are provided. The key issue

:51:17.:51:24.

is making the right choice. Talking about the right choice, you

:51:25.:51:29.

want to privatise more services? We've got a choice about how we cope

:51:30.:51:34.

with the next three years. How you sustain discretionary services.

:51:35.:51:41.

Parks and so on. There are two choices ` stop them or think

:51:42.:51:45.

differently. Using the private sector is one option we're

:51:46.:51:49.

exploring. The bins are already collected. There has to be

:51:50.:52:01.

accountability, but if we can sustain a service it's better than

:52:02.:52:08.

not having it at all. But do you think privatising it would just mean

:52:09.:52:12.

the service remains, or would it get better? There are huge options. We

:52:13.:52:26.

want to be able to say these are the expectations, how can we generate an

:52:27.:52:29.

income. These are the standards, let's improve them and use the

:52:30.:52:40.

economies of scale. It's important there's governance. We make

:52:41.:52:48.

decisions for the long`term. That's the driving factor. Sue, you're not

:52:49.:52:57.

entirely convinced? In Stockport we created solutions for our bin

:52:58.:53:05.

collections. We're not part of the current bid most of the other

:53:06.:53:13.

authorities are in. We have to look at how we deliver services. How we

:53:14.:53:19.

do them in the best possible way. So why aren't you keen to go down that

:53:20.:53:24.

road? We already have an independent company doing the work. We're

:53:25.:53:36.

reviewing whether that suits us. We might use others. We're not

:53:37.:53:42.

convinced pure privatisation would save us the money. We need to look

:53:43.:53:47.

at how we do it. In Oldham, you are considering this? Categorically not!

:53:48.:53:55.

We were included, as all authorities were, in the exercise. But when any

:53:56.:53:59.

of us are going out, we're automatically included. We're not

:54:00.:54:08.

duplicated. We're not interested in this. There's a danger that we look

:54:09.:54:13.

at that as the solution but we already provide value for money.

:54:14.:54:25.

We've modernised. We're working a seven`day week for street cleaning.

:54:26.:54:31.

So what do you say when people say we want to keep these going but

:54:32.:54:41.

something has to change? It's not the answer. If you want to look at

:54:42.:54:46.

somebody to run these things, talk to us and we'll do it. We're very

:54:47.:54:58.

cheap and do an excellent job. All councils have to think creatively.

:54:59.:55:10.

We're going through a process to think whether we could use a private

:55:11.:55:22.

sector partner... Use a mutual... Collaborate... But why go down that

:55:23.:55:26.

route when these two say they can manage? This is a sensationalist

:55:27.:55:29.

debate. They're contributing to help councils deliver their services.

:55:30.:55:31.

This isn't new. It's happened for years. Look at Trafford. There are

:55:32.:55:38.

great examples and some that aren't. If there's a way of sustaining a

:55:39.:55:41.

service, we're going through a process to say we have to think

:55:42.:55:54.

differently. We've heard from the three main parties who run councils

:55:55.:55:57.

across the North West. What about some of the others standing? The

:55:58.:56:05.

cuts have gone too far. We've seen a welfare safety net snatched away. We

:56:06.:56:09.

need to support the most vulnerable. One million people last year

:56:10.:56:15.

depended on food banks. In the world's sixth richest economy. It's

:56:16.:56:19.

not right. Labour has lost five million votes since 1997. These

:56:20.:56:25.

people ` the left behind ` are looking for something different.

:56:26.:56:31.

Something new. They're looking for UKIP. Let's pick up on UKIP. Jim,

:56:32.:56:39.

some former Labour people have turned to UKIP. They're trying to

:56:40.:56:49.

win votes from you? Up and down the country, UKIP are a ramshackle group

:56:50.:56:52.

of people. Brought together from a range of interests. Nobody has a

:56:53.:56:58.

clue what they stand for. But they're very popular? Getting out

:56:59.:57:06.

Europe... Stopping immigration... The media are obsessed with this

:57:07.:57:17.

'new' party. It's a European debate. We're talking about local council

:57:18.:57:22.

services. When I go out to the doorsteps, they're pleased with the

:57:23.:57:30.

council and get what we want to do. People are making a conscious

:57:31.:57:33.

decision to separate out the European elections. Even on postal

:57:34.:57:41.

vote returns, we're seeing that people are voting in the local

:57:42.:57:44.

elections and perhaps not taking their vote for the Europeans.

:57:45.:57:47.

Ultimately, UKIP hurt the Tories more. They're targeting marginal

:57:48.:57:59.

wards? Well, none of them have put forward a proposal to say what they

:58:00.:58:03.

would do with the council over the coming years. They should do. If

:58:04.:58:10.

they're sensible, they should be able to say their policies. Neither

:58:11.:58:17.

do the Labour Party. They're standing in some of our seats, but

:58:18.:58:20.

I'm putting forward a message why people should continue to vote

:58:21.:58:30.

Conservative. But in the meantime, a lot of voters seem to have gone off

:58:31.:58:36.

you? We have a strong argument to be able to say you need to keep a

:58:37.:58:39.

Conservative council ` the lowest council tax in the North West, 10p

:58:40.:58:46.

car parking, libraries protected... These are real decisions and we want

:58:47.:58:52.

to keep delivering. Sue, how low can the Lib Dems go? I can't answer that

:58:53.:59:00.

but I'm confident that people in Stockport recognise our value. We

:59:01.:59:12.

ran the council for a while. The 80s, 90s... People don't want to

:59:13.:59:22.

see... They like the way it's run. There is a need for opposition. The

:59:23.:59:28.

rise of UKIP means people feel alienated. Lots of people have

:59:29.:59:40.

suffered ` the financial crash hit everybody. The measures taken to

:59:41.:59:43.

redress the economy have not been easy. We'll see how they get on.

:59:44.:59:52.

It's time for the rest of the week's news now.

:59:53.:59:58.

Bolton MP Yasmin Qureshi is leading calls for a public enquiry into drug

:59:59.:00:03.

use for a pregnancy test in the 70s. Some families say it led to birth

:00:04.:00:06.

defects. It's emerged that a Manchester

:00:07.:00:10.

restaurant, run by the sons of one of UKIP's top candidates, was fined

:00:11.:00:13.

last year for employing illegal immigrants. The candidate is

:00:14.:00:18.

standing in Yorkshire and his family are appealing.

:00:19.:00:23.

The Commons Business Committee challenged bosses from American

:00:24.:00:26.

giant Pfizer over its plans to buy AstraZeneca. The drug company

:00:27.:00:30.

employs 5,000 people across the region.

:00:31.:00:34.

'Bird brained' was the RSPB's verdict on plans for a cull along

:00:35.:00:38.

the Lancashire coast. It's challenged the government's backing

:00:39.:00:41.

for a plan that BAE Systems proposed, to stop birds being sucked

:00:42.:00:46.

into jet engines. And the Mayor of Liverpool says this

:00:47.:00:49.

year's International Music Festival is good value for money despite

:00:50.:00:52.

wide`ranging council cuts elsewhere. The festival is council about half

:00:53.:01:04.

as much as its predecessor. Before we go, a reminder that voting

:01:05.:01:08.

in the local elections and European elections takes place on Thursday.

:01:09.:01:19.

More details on the website. That's it from us. Time to thank all of my

:01:20.:01:25.

guests ` Jim, Sue and Sean. Back to Andrew in London.

:01:26.:01:27.

thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

:01:28.:01:38.

Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

:01:39.:01:45.

do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

:01:46.:01:50.

on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

:01:51.:01:56.

a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

:01:57.:02:00.

Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

:02:01.:02:05.

April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

:02:06.:02:09.

Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

:02:10.:02:15.

cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

:02:16.:02:28.

Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

:02:29.:02:35.

unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We

:02:36.:02:41.

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

:02:42.:02:45.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

:02:46.:02:50.

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

:02:51.:02:53.

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

:02:54.:02:58.

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

:02:59.:03:03.

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

:03:04.:03:09.

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

:03:10.:03:13.

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

:03:14.:03:19.

democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are

:03:20.:03:28.

going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

:03:29.:03:33.

the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

:03:34.:03:37.

your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

:03:38.:03:42.

pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,

:03:43.:03:47.

and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

:03:48.:04:02.

voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

:04:03.:04:10.

a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

:04:11.:04:16.

It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

:04:17.:04:22.

happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

:04:23.:04:25.

becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

:04:26.:04:29.

distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

:04:30.:04:35.

is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

:04:36.:04:40.

try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

:04:41.:04:47.

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

:04:48.:04:50.

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

:04:51.:04:54.

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

:04:55.:04:59.

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

:05:00.:05:03.

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

:05:04.:05:07.

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

:05:08.:05:11.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

:05:12.:05:17.

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

:05:18.:05:21.

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

:05:22.:05:26.

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

:05:27.:05:31.

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

:05:32.:05:37.

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

:05:38.:05:41.

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

:05:42.:05:47.

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

:05:48.:05:55.

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

:05:56.:05:59.

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

:06:00.:06:02.

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

:06:03.:06:06.

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

:06:07.:06:11.

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

:06:12.:06:16.

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

:06:17.:06:20.

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

:06:21.:06:26.

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

:06:27.:06:33.

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

:06:34.:06:37.

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

:06:38.:06:42.

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

:06:43.:06:47.

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

:06:48.:06:53.

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

:06:54.:06:56.

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

:06:57.:07:01.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

:07:02.:07:08.

Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

:07:09.:07:12.

with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

:07:13.:07:16.

it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

:07:17.:07:19.

want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

:07:20.:07:25.

the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

:07:26.:07:29.

elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

:07:30.:07:34.

many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

:07:35.:07:41.

saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

:07:42.:07:45.

that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

:07:46.:07:48.

are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

:07:49.:07:52.

but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

:07:53.:07:59.

polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

:08:00.:08:03.

may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

:08:04.:08:07.

answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

:08:08.:08:12.

people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they

:08:13.:08:44.

people how likely they are to vote parties. I do not think we can tell

:08:45.:08:48.

yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will

:08:49.:08:54.

have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the

:08:55.:09:06.

screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could

:09:07.:09:10.

be in some trouble. The Labour see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could

:09:11.:10:44.

thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris

:10:45.:10:48.

Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the

:10:49.:10:53.

chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But

:10:54.:11:01.

where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called

:11:02.:11:03.

Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.

:11:04.:11:08.

And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not

:11:09.:11:12.

lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And

:11:13.:11:17.

some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,

:11:18.:11:21.

Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression

:11:22.:11:24.

that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed

:11:25.:11:30.

Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this

:11:31.:11:33.

rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although

:11:34.:11:37.

that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in

:11:38.:11:44.

the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the

:11:45.:11:48.

economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on

:11:49.:11:53.

your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference

:11:54.:11:58.

between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was

:11:59.:12:02.

elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue.

:12:03.:12:07.

The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power

:12:08.:12:11.

when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.

:12:12.:12:14.

Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -

:12:15.:12:20.

Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David

:12:21.:12:25.

Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that

:12:26.:12:31.

matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like

:12:32.:12:37.

Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who

:12:38.:12:42.

you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,

:12:43.:12:45.

the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not

:12:46.:12:50.

changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.

:12:51.:12:57.

Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing

:12:58.:13:02.

about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to

:13:03.:13:08.

use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you

:13:09.:13:12.

all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election

:13:13.:13:16.

coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of

:13:17.:13:20.

course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily

:13:21.:13:23.

Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next

:13:24.:13:28.

Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it

:13:29.:13:32.

is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.

:13:33.:13:38.

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