25/05/2014 Sunday Politics North West

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.

And coming up in the North West: More on the Liberal Democrats as

yellow fades from our town halls. The first interview

disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an

hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics

henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick

Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300

councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the

local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the

country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar

comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but

growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.

This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.

People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils

and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been

trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on

significant issues that are the core values of our party.

This is how the party president responded.

At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on

ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while

they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is

what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we

consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,

and a full conference. Is there a growing question over

Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own

view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming

to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss

the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting

is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided

he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the

members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at

the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some

kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I

am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,

that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in

that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am

consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own

before you have listened to your members. There are people who are

wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about

that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a

sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this

position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum

on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules

have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability

to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions

about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made

it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal

Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of

your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with

written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your

policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with

what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because

the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a

presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse

in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for

wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have

got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents

when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal

Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing

carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy

issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was

essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My

own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in

accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more

students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged

backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader

through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!

If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen

to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have

something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you

would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.

But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather

wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,

there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or

Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger

ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were

Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the

left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010

will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve

historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed

Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the

party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have

continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of

government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the

election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the

conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to

destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is

chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the

coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick

Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?

Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John

Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick

Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as

the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.

Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you

say they are not a party of government, but what looks more

likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a

common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of

power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a

minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.

If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When

you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great

fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority

government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg

lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am

sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy

Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal

Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,

but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established

parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We

watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election

night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and

logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed

to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and

take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,

kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the

exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are

doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the

electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into

intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which

ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,

welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become

for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we

will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party

is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even

hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses

to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to

questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of

Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason

they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna

says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like

human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some

conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be

preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.

That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to

do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.

Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was

completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and

strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.

They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP

does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind

of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap

ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European

elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad

error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look

at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a

general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour

will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being

second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they

will target. The question for the next election, can they make a

challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of

these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any

MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased

to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do

you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and

Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?

No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,

Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne

Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that

in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will

be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis

of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,

only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon

Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is

one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key

marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but

we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you

were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.

That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the

Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick

O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it

O'Flynn, you performed well in the the projected national share. I

think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the

target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne

target seat list becoming clear cities know that, that is the point.

What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral

superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do

not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is

getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem

according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote

is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband

have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very

well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned

some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation

is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims

there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own

cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't

know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could

have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking

better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are

all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may

be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their

children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you

ask people about their future and their children's future and

prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you

in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP

and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be

with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you

put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with

the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they

are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are

going to back to the three main parties in general election. It

would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have

said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for

granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our

strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal

with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to

burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win

Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being

the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and

end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to

go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't

vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we

need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great

crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have

you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It

is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set

for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,

an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have

an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their

rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,

hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a

member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were

you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important

interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on

there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.

So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,

because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that

interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and

I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy

with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our

boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time

tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just

count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my

party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing

country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able

to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of

overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former

deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000

voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that

will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26

constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would

support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of

6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That

implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in

second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.

Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP

supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched

from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft

Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal

constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an

election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went

through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a

number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is

Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a

snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be

improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are

fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead

in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The

Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking

dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a

no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.

Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the

largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are

smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a

single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors

in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any

of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England

than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did

vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many

of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will

bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,

but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the

Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the

electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I

believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I

believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity

into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election

results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general

election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that

Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I

am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the

results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national

election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from

now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we

are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic

plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel

secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.

Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues

that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep

your promises. We have reduced immigration and the

amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a

couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to

under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have

broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU

countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming

here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help

fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here

to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our

intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream

politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you

be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,

correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit

your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards

the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of

under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.

But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote

UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a

referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but

still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted

for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about

the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the

political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address

them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a

treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely

to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it

will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a

general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will

run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust

the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to

2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a

better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in

a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about

Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I

do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see

Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that

is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way

that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a

majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect

better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they

have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national

government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are

voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want

to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to

see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your

party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,

like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015

to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%

behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a

year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly

deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.

We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am

a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be

helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good

friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best

things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,

you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a

pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a

market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should

not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no

pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say

goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election

coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First, Hello, I'm Arif Ansari. Coming up in

the North West: Losing the Liberal Democrats ` as yellow fades from

some of our town halls, the first tinge of UKIP purple emerges.

But where will it lead? If the UKIP guys here in Bolton are savvy and

keep working hard, it could be theirs for the taking.

And to discuss the local election results, I'm joined in the studio by

Mark Hunter, the Liberal Democrat MP for Cheadle. Alison McGovern, the

Labour MP for Wirral South. And David Mowat, the Conservative MP for

Warrington South. Mark, what is the key lesson from these elections? I

think that the moment, while we are still waiting for the results of the

European election, what I would suggest is that we need a period of

quiet reflection. There are some hard lessons to learn for the Lib

Dems. We've lost a lot of hard`working councils across the

North West. `` councils. But at the same time, if we are looking for

positives, we did still have a majority in five out of six

Parliamentary seats in general election and all three

parties, in their different ways, have something to play for.

Everything to play for. So, let's look at the big picture

across the region. Labour held on to all of its 21 councils it

controlled. The Conservatives lost West Lancashire but did hold

Liberal Democrats were comfortable in charge of Rochdale Council. Fast

forward and it's standing room only, having lost four of their five

seats. First of all, the Liberals are not destroyed in Rochdale. We're

still a party. We're still a strong party. And the 1000 plus people who

voted for me are testament to that. So I think it's a bit premature to

say that liberalism is dead. Liberalism is certainly not dead in

Rochdale. In Liverpool, the Lib Dems also fell hard. The only bright

spots to be found were in Stockport and in South Lakeland. The local

authority landscape didn't alter dramatically for the Conservatives `

the Tories keeping hold of their flagship council in Trafford. We've

won the seats that we wanted to defend and we've gained Timperley.

People know that we are a well run, efficient Conservative council,

delivering services, protecting services, with the lowest council

tax in the North West. In West Lancashire it came down to the wire.

The Conservatives lost overall control and will now have to share

power with Labour. There were 27 seats each. It will really be an

interesting year. How the various votes in the council are going to

pan out. But after 12 years, 13 years, of a full Tory`led council,

it's great to finally have it back home, at least for now, and

hopefully in 12 months we'll swing it. It was a good following for

Labour locally, who'd bagged extra seats, but there was criticism of

national leadership. The centrepiece for our campaign has been the cost

of living. And yet Ed didn't know his own cost of living when he went

into it. He didn't know how much he was spending on shopping. And

that's, sort of, really unforgivably unprofessional. In the run`up to the

General Election hard work needs to be done but some may have to work

harder than others to convince the electorate. What you make of the

fact that one your colleagues is calling for the Nick Clegg to stand

down? He isn't. Pretty close. He's called for a thorough review of the

election campaign and a review of the tactics and strategy. You'd

expect that after any election and he knows and I know that that was

put in place before these elections happened. There is a scheduled

meeting of the parliamentary party when we return and that must happen.

We need to look at why we are no longer able to engage with certain

sections of the community in the way we once were. We need to learn those

lessons. There's no doubt about that. Let me read one line from John

Pugh. "While the captain goes down for the ship, there's no need for

the ship to go down by the captain". He will put his argument in his own

way but I noticed that he and other MPs have stopped short of calling

for Nick Clegg's resignation and I think we need to take into account

the circumstances of the coalition being formed back in 2010. What the

Liberal Democrats bought that was giving political stability so that

the economic recovery could start to take place. `` brought to that. But

we're talking about your party's fortunes. If Nick Clegg came to you

and said, " Mark, you are my deputy chief whip and I want some honest

advice that matter I might a vote loser, " what would you say? We have

a lot of issues about how we engage about certain sections of the

community that are no longer engaged with the Liberal Democrat message.

We have to work harder at trying to explain our position and put forward

the distinctive policies we've brought to the coalition government.

Like the change in the tax thresholds, the ?10,000, which I

know the Conservatives now say they support. That shows the difference

in government. We want to help those that are less well off and although

that was in our manifesto for the last general election, you will look

in vain for any mention of it in the Conservative manifesto. They said it

wasn't deliverable. The trouble you've got is that you can point to

all these successes and it's all overshadowed because so many voters

don't like Nick Clegg. I think there is clearly a problem about

engagement, which I that knowledge, and we have to work harder at

getting that message across and finding other ways to do it. But I

don't think the idea of changing leaders 12 months out from a general

election... The idea that in one single band we can be free of all

these problems and a new leader will magically transform our fortunes, I

think is for the birds. Alison, why didn't you take Trafford? Well, I'm

sure the party there will be looking at what it needs to do but I don't

think we can ignore the fantastic results that we had across the North

West in places like Wirral. Incredibly strong results. I think

the public have backed what a great labour Council has done to protect

them. But the danger... When we've seen in councils run by Labour some

of the worst cuts across the country... But the danger is that

you are deepening support in places where you've already got it and not

extend to get to places you need it. That's hardly the case. In my

backyard in Wirral, where we will have in the general election two

seats that I know everybody will be watching because of their

marginality, labour performed really strongly. If you look at the

results, we had a really good day. But you didn't even take West

Lancashire. You only needed two gains. Watch live ET, we've clearly

done very well. You only made one game. `` watching your BT, we've

clearly done very well. I think Labour have performed incredibly

well in these elections. We got to keep listening to people, keep

campaigning hard, and that's what we'll do right across the North West

and across the country. What about Graham Stringer calling Ed

Miliband's campaign unforgivably unprofessional? Well, I just think

he was wrong. Ed Miliband is a good man. I had constituents coming to me

worried about zero hours contract and they said they didn't think

anyone would listen. You know who listened? Ed Miliband. He listened

to what we were saying and made sure that we would ban exploiters of zero

hours contracts. That's the kind of person who is able to listen and

take on board what people are saying and I have the confidence that he

will keep doing that. David, you've lost a third of your councillors

since you went into government. Yes, we have. And last Thursday, if

that was a general election, the Labour Party would have won with a

small working majority. In your seat, you would have been defeated.

I would have been defeated and we would have lost another 30 or 40

marginal seats. But the poll shows Labour 20% ahead. If they go on and

win a general election from that, they will do something that no party

has done ever, which is go on to win from that position. And the momentum

is not with Labour. If Labour were going to win the next general

election, they would be doing massively better now in places like

West Lancashire and other places. They would be making substantial

gains and they haven't. But there's no sign of you recovering. The

opinion polls show us doing OK. Labour are a few points ahead. That

result would translate into a general election win but what I'm

saying is that one year before the general election, there is no

momentum behind Ed Miliband. And insofar as the opinion polls are

changing, the direction of change is towards us. Well, tonight they'll be

hoping to add to the one MEP they already have when the votes for the

European Parliament are counted. But on Friday, the UK Independence Party

was toasting its first council wins. Ian Haslam reports.

And I hereby declare the said Diane Parkinson is duly elected a

councillor for the Halton ward. Bolton UKIP had never fielded

candidates in a local election before. In taking a seat from both

Labour and the Conservatives, they confirmed their position on the

council. People trust me, I hope, and I can look after their local

issues. We want to have UKIP on the local council elections and then we

can build up from there. UKIP also finished second in 13 seats in

Bolton, so could this act as a catalyst for the party's general

election candidates? I think 2014 is going to be a very interesting year

for UKIP nationally, to see how they cope with these seats. But in terms

of the sentiment now, if the UKIP guys here in Bolton are savvy and if

they keep working hard, it could be theirs for the taking. Over in

Oldham, another Labour run`council, another UKIP breakthrough. Warren

Bates one of two new UKIP councillors there. There has been

something of a subplot in the run`up to the election here in Oldham `

growing tension between Labour and UKIP. It centres around campaign

leaflets distributed to thousands of homes across the borough. It's

proved divisive and includes allegations of vote rigging among

Asian candidates. The man behind it used to work for ex`Labour MP Phil

Woolas. They say you're racist but they don't say you're lying. So when

I, for example, say that the Asian community swap the votes and they

Tipp`Ex them out and they come down here and they're accepted, that is

true. So they don't say, "ooh, Joe, you lied". The council leader sees

things differently. What I can't accept is people stirring up racism.

I don't use that term lightly. Some of the things that were being said,

where the wards had three Asian councillors, for example, the

headlines were, "it's time for vote for one of us, one of our own".

Meanwhile, another two seats went to UKIP in Hyndburn in Lancashire,

where there was another political falling out. Malcolm Eric Prichard

has been duly elected. Malcolm Prichard ousted his own daughter

Claire from her seat. He had earlier reported her for alleged election

fraud, meaning she stood as an independent after being suspended

from the Labour Party. I would have liked it on better terms, because

I've just knocked my daughter out. And I'm devastated at doing that.

So, from inter`family to inter`council, UKIP's success has

certainly stirred things up across our region.

Well, before we ask my guests about the general election threat from

UKIP, let's head to Oldham, home to two of its newest councillors, and

Stuart Pollitt. Yes, two council law is elected here

in Oldham Fort UKIP. `` two councillors. Let's talk to Louise

balls, a prospective MEP for UKIP, hoping to be elected this evening.

Six councillors in the North West ` not exactly a landslide. I think

it's a really fantastic result, the result that we needed to break

through in this region. What's really interesting is that the

places we've been successful, we've had really strong branches,

infrastructure, and what it shows is that where we have those really

strong bases, those really great activists, we can be successful and

if you vote UKIP, you get UKIP. But nationally you won far more seats

elsewhere. The green Harty gained more seats here. We have to look at

long`term pictures. What it shows is that way you look at our results, in

St Helens, for example, we came second across`the`board. That is an

amazing base to build on from a standing start. There are not many

parties that can take that kind of percentage of the vote first time

round. We've got to look at the long`term picture. What about the

type of campaign you rang? We heard reports there about allegations of

racist leaflets in Oldham and elsewhere. Have you run an unsavoury

campaign? I don't think so at all, no. I think our campaign has been

highly professional, our activists have behaved in an exceptional

manner and I think, really, when you take into consideration the

witchhunt in some parts of the country against us, I think we've

behaved admirably. You have rogue people saying all sorts of things

amongst your candidates. I think Nigel and Paul Nuttall have been

very vocal. We don't have the monopoly on silly people. Where

people have stepped out of line and said things that are an acceptable,

we've dealt with it quickly, swiftly and, obviously, they will not be

members of the party any longer. I will move to you, Professor Ed

Russell from Manchester University. How would you assess UKIP's

performance? Six councillors in our region is a breakthrough but a very

minor one. You have to see UKIP's presence here as a microcosm of

what's happening nationally. There are signs of breakthrough, of lots

of second places. If they can have a continued presence over the next two

years, maybe this is the start of a challenge. But look at the

difference in what happened in some of the rural areas, small towns and

big cities. No presence in Manchester or Liverpool, and no

presence in London for UKIP. There is a different appeal for UKIP. What

about the Lib Dems? Disastrous for them but some signs that UKIP are

pinching their campaign tactics. The Lib Dems keep worrying about how bad

it can go. The only solace for them is that if you look in the sub

councils, and some of the wards in some of the seats, you can see that

where Lib Dem MPs are incumbent and are standing again in 2015, there

may be some shards of light there that they can hold on to. Some of

the wards in Stockport, for instance. There may be tiny shards

of good news for the Lib Dems. But the picture otherwise is pretty

bleak. Look at what happened in Liverpool and Manchester. The

interesting thing is that UKIP's model is now a Lib Dem model from

the 1980s and 1990s, about building from locally to nationally. Perhaps

mellow if you are yellow but pleased if you are purple. Back to you,

Aris. Thank you. I fear you are slightly

stretching our budget with those muffins!

Why is UKIP now the main challenger to Labour in certain areas? I think

what we saw there was quite right. We've had the collapse of the Lib

Dem vote and people have at a tougher four years and it's

perfectly understandable to see a protest vote. Is that all it is?

Well, no, look, you should never take people for granted. Always keep

listening to them, talking to them. We've had fantastic new Labour

councillors elected this week. Many more than UKIP have had elected.

Because people have got out and worked and fought for every vote and

that's what you have to do. We've had a collapsing Liberal Democrat

vote... Allison, Allison, has Labour lost touch with a key part of the

white working class vote? I don't think so. Look at the resounding

support that there was for Labour in the important cities of Liverpool

and Manchester. We are there, constantly talking to people,

understanding their needs and trying to protect them from the worst

attacks of a Tory`Lib Dem government that has forced the bedroom tax on

people... We know all that but UKIP came second in ten out of 16 seats

in St Helens, second in 13 seats in Bolton. 25% of the share in Oldham.

This is a rising challenge to you. We've got to listen and understand

that people have had really tough times and we've got to work out

exactly the detail of our policies, so that when we put those policies

forward in the general election next year, we're offering people real

choice. According to the figures, the UKIP influence has cost you two

seats and printed your win in Bolton West. I think it's wrong to just

assume that if people don't vote UKIP, they are going to vote

Conservative. That's not what the polls say. The important point about

UKIP for all of the political parties is that for some, we're seen

as too metropolitan, to London focused. And you said it quite

correctly, out of touch with what you call the white working class. I

heard a statistic at the weekend that the Labour Party has five times

more members in Hampstead than Hartlepool. That is not a basis for

a national party to continue to make progress. I need to bring marking

briefly. You were the only one suitable UKIP on directly with those

debates. It didn't work out for you. We do have to recognise, all of us,

that we are in an era of four party politics. There was no doubt in my

mind that Nigel Farage has could manage to capture the public mood.

The other main party leaders, including my own, has not been able

to do that. We need to look at why that has happened and have a

strategy and a clear plan based on alternative policies as to why

that's the wrong direction to go. My own constituency is a great example.

For me, the argument about Europe and why we should be in it, is about

jobs and the economy. The biggest poison my patch European

multinationals. Time for the rest of the week's news

now ` here's Steve Saul with 60 Seconds.

The Government says it will tighten the rules on day release after two

prisoners went on the run from Merseyside. The pair including

convicted killer Arnold Pickering, who had absconded twice before.

More than 600 households in the North West are at risk of losing

their homes through eviction or repossession, according to Shelter.

The charity says people in Salford are most at risk.

Lancashire County Council is to consider applications for two more

sites for shale gas exploration. Cuadrilla wants to drill at Roseacre

Wood near Elswick and at Little Plumpton on Fylde.

Birkenhead MP Frank Field has called for a compromise over plans for a

riverside warehouse at Monks Ferry. Boat operators say it will block

their slipway. If we have passengers that are out with us, we really

There is a special programme from 11:35pm on BBC One tonight. Thanks

to my guests. Thank you for coming in. For now, I'll hand you back

benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,

back to you, Andrew. the very moment when our sacrifices

are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question

is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to

take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party

forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend

Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It

could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue

the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in

scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent

to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like

cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling

for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens

from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it

seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including

sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would

like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been

doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the

polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you

will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut

through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking

about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me

take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in

every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or

two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of

them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to

change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election

we not only re-established our position from a base of almost

nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in

1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and

insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we

should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of

that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll

ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum

of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best

part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple

of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a

long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into

government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%

support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding

judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being

attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and

he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has

done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are

in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is

one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context

of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he

can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local

elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on

track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for

us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as

bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general

election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in

government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell

about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country

out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the

Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and

fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the

context of a general election will be far greater than you are

suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,

that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed

Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long

time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the

same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a

breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet

wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the

Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken

seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken

up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have

taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around

them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating

people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the

fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern

Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did

not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage

regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those

Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party

will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the

south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony

Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they

did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle

-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%

in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.

There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did

not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we

should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he

would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the

results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty

well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in

the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes

from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done

well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on

Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a

disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the

main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a

majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break

the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that

they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116

or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in

the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating

finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be

putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is

the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are

nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a

majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous

increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,

which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.

David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you

know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the

bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.

Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch

into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a

meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was

to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and

very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband

business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because

the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big

concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find

pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you

reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You

can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a

different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,

it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron

pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking

at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you

are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some

abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast

person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers

from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been

guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is

what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15

points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich

would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.

That is all this week, you can get those European election results with

David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,

and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back

in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.

This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.

What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain