15/06/2014 Sunday Politics North West


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:00:36.:00:42.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? And as World Cup sticker fever grips

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even Westminster, we'll be asking In the North West Preston's City

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Deal and the International Festival Fighting on `

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why this Henry Cooper is facing In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

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a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him

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intervention. But one wishes someone other direction. The fact is, what

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has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout

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both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,

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democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been

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missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have

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just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building

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dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the

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ground. onto what is happening on the

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

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federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

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forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

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find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

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military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

:18:46.:19:02.

solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

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with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

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representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

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are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

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leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

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region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

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quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

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giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

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deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

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that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

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carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

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you very much. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

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referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

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just getting heated. In places it's also

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down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

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announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

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this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:24.:20:25.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:26.:20:33.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:34.:20:36.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:37.:20:39.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:40.:20:43.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:44.:20:45.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:46.:20:50.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

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Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:54.:20:59.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

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first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

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not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:24.:21:27.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:28.:21:33.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:34.:21:37.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

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fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

:21:43.:21:45.

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

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to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:50.:21:54.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:55.:21:58.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

:21:59.:22:04.

Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:05.:22:09.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:10.:22:14.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

:22:15.:22:21.

democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:22.:22:25.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:26.:22:28.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:29.:22:35.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:36.:22:38.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:39.:22:42.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:43.:22:47.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:48.:22:53.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:54.:22:57.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:58.:23:04.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:05.:23:09.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:10.:23:14.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:15.:23:19.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:20.:23:27.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:28.:23:31.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:32.:23:37.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:38.:23:46.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:47.:23:50.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:51.:23:55.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:56.:24:00.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:01.:24:04.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:05.:24:09.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:10.:24:18.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:19.:24:22.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:23.:24:28.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:29.:24:32.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:33.:24:40.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:41.:24:45.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:46.:24:49.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:50.:24:53.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:54.:24:58.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:24:59.:25:02.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:03.:25:06.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:07.:25:10.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:11.:25:17.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:18.:25:25.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:26.:25:28.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:29.:25:34.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:35.:25:39.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:40.:25:42.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:43.:25:48.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:49.:25:55.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:56.:26:02.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:03.:26:07.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:08.:26:13.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:14.:26:20.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:21.:26:24.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:25.:26:30.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:31.:26:34.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:35.:26:38.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:39.:26:43.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:44.:26:49.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:50.:26:51.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:52.:26:59.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:00.:27:06.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:07.:27:12.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:13.:27:16.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:17.:27:22.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:23.:27:28.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:29.:27:32.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:33.:27:37.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:38.:27:42.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:43.:27:48.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:49.:27:52.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:53.:27:57.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:27:58.:28:04.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:05.:28:08.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:09.:28:13.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:14.:28:19.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:20.:28:25.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:26.:28:32.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:33.:28:35.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:36.:28:41.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:42.:28:47.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:48.:28:55.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:56.:28:59.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:00.:29:03.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:04.:29:07.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:08.:29:12.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:13.:29:18.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:19.:29:23.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:24.:29:30.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:31.:29:34.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:35.:29:38.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:39.:29:42.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:43.:29:48.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:49.:29:54.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:55.:30:00.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:01.:30:03.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:04.:30:06.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:07.:30:10.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:11.:30:13.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:14.:30:15.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:16.:30:22.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:23.:30:24.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:25.:30:38.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:39.:30:45.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:46.:30:46.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:47.:30:49.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:50.:30:51.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:52.:31:00.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:01.:31:05.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:06.:31:05.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:06.:31:16.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:17.:31:24.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:25.:31:25.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:26.:31:27.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:28.:31:29.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:30.:31:32.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:33.:31:35.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:36.:31:46.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows?

:31:47.:32:41.

Cabinet, the weakness of the polls. been successful. I haven't got Nick

:32:42.:33:40.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:41.:33:46.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:47.:33:47.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:48.:33:51.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:52.:33:54.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:55.:34:06.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:07.:34:10.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:11.:34:13.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:14.:34:16.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:17.:34:19.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:20.:34:29.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:30.:34:31.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:32.:34:33.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:34.:34:43.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:44.:34:46.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:47.:34:55.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:56.:35:00.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:01.:35:06.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:07.:35:12.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:13.:35:16.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:17.:35:20.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:21.:35:24.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:25.:35:27.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:28.:35:34.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:35.:35:37.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:38.:35:47.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:48.:35:53.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:54.:35:55.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:56.:36:00.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:01.:36:04.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:05.:36:07.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:08.:36:11.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:12.:36:13.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:14.:36:16.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:17.:36:21.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:22.:36:25.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:26.:36:29.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:30.:36:33.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:34.:36:39.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:40.:36:46.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:47.:36:50.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:51.:36:56.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:57.:37:02.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:03.:37:05.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:06.:37:11.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:12.:37:15.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:16.:37:20.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:21.:37:23.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:24.:37:27.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:28.:37:31.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:32.:37:35.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:36.:37:44.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:45.:37:51.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:52.:37:54.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:55.:37:56.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:57.:37:59.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:00.:38:11.

Fighting on ` why Manchester's Henry Cooper is facing

:38:12.:38:17.

95 Labour people on one sidd, you on the other side. How does it feel?

:38:18.:38:37.

And joining me in the ring this week ` the

:38:38.:38:41.

Employment Minister and Conservative MP for Wirral West, Esther LcVey.

:38:42.:38:44.

And the former Environment Linister, the Labour MP for Oldham West

:38:45.:38:46.

We have had this big political row this week centred around Liverpool

:38:47.:38:58.

over Hillsborough. Ed Milib`nd was pictured with a copy of The Sun Was

:38:59.:39:09.

that a mistake? Yes. It would have been better if he had not done it. A

:39:10.:39:15.

coroner 's Court is sitting at this time. A lot of disturbing evidence

:39:16.:39:22.

is coming out regarding the design of the ground, management bx the

:39:23.:39:30.

police. It is exceedingly r`w on Merseyside. 96 people died. He has

:39:31.:39:37.

apologised. He recognises it was a mistake.

:39:38.:39:45.

Well the Mayor of Liverpool Joe Anderson led

:39:46.:39:46.

the outcry, calling the Labour leader's actions "deeply shocking".

:39:47.:39:49.

He also wrote on the Liverpool Labour Party's website:

:39:50.:39:51.

"This is just another example of how out of touch the politicians

:39:52.:39:54.

in their ivory towers are from the lives of ordinary people.

:39:55.:39:56.

It begs the question ` were the comments he made

:39:57.:39:59.

after the Hillsborough panel report sincere or just sound bites?"

:40:00.:40:05.

Ed Miliband has apologised. I think it all happened rather quickly. This

:40:06.:40:30.

was about the World Cup in Brazil. If it had been another newspaper no

:40:31.:40:37.

one would have uttered a word. Esther McVey, you are in Merseyside

:40:38.:40:42.

MP. David Cameron was also photographed with The Sun. Should he

:40:43.:40:52.

also apologise West of Mac `` also apologise? It is very sensitive If

:40:53.:41:07.

you are on Merseyside you know how sensitive that issue is. People on

:41:08.:41:12.

Merseyside have not what th`t newspaper since. The Labour Party

:41:13.:41:21.

have always tried to court The Sun. Should David Cameron also

:41:22.:41:28.

apologise? He has not thought so. He does not feel that he needs to. It

:41:29.:41:34.

was the Conservative Ministdr Jeremy Hunt who said that these newspapers

:41:35.:41:41.

should be looked at. It is the Conservative Party that has allowed

:41:42.:41:47.

the inquest to go ahead. Labour went to the other end of the world,

:41:48.:41:56.

literally, to court Rupert Lurdoch. You were supposedly to beathng

:41:57.:42:00.

during the 25th anniversary commemorations. `` tweetimg cheering

:42:01.:42:16.

the 25th anniversary commemorations.

:42:17.:42:24.

Well less controversially Liverpool's International Fdstival

:42:25.:42:26.

for Business opened this wedk, promoting the best

:42:27.:42:28.

And in Preston work's startdd on ?400 million worth of new roads and

:42:29.:42:32.

Our reporter Chris Rider's been asking if the regional economy's

:42:33.:42:36.

Open for business, the backing of the Government

:42:37.:42:41.

The Prime Minister in Liverpool to launch the

:42:42.:42:46.

Part of rebalancing the economy is Westminster politicians givhng far

:42:47.:42:51.

more attention and, where possible, powers to our great cities.

:42:52.:42:59.

The day after, Lord Heseltine pointing in the right direction

:43:00.:43:05.

for Preston City Deal which will see millions of pounds of investment

:43:06.:43:08.

What people have now realisdd in government is that in London

:43:09.:43:12.

They are determined to try and get local people who live

:43:13.:43:18.

in places, work in them, and understand them, to takd bigger

:43:19.:43:26.

I don't think everybody is going to be as excited as Michael Heseltine

:43:27.:43:37.

and some of the people in County Hall.

:43:38.:43:39.

Lots of communities know th`t this is an awful lot of concrete that is

:43:40.:43:43.

being poured on to the countryside for supposed environmental benefits.

:43:44.:43:45.

But many of the businesses who came to County Hall to hear from Lord

:43:46.:43:48.

Heseltine are on board, and he's won praise from his political opponents.

:43:49.:43:51.

To have Lord Heseltine here has been stupendous because he is

:43:52.:43:54.

the father of regeneration projects over many decades.

:43:55.:43:56.

For him to give us the benefit of his advice is amazing.

:43:57.:44:02.

It was back in 1981 when Lord Heseltine came to Liverpool to

:44:03.:44:06.

help regenerate the place in the wake of the Toxteth riots,

:44:07.:44:09.

beginning a long relationshhp with the city which remains todax.

:44:10.:44:13.

And this international event lasting 50 days makes it clear the

:44:14.:44:16.

It is wonderful to have the world's largest business event happdning

:44:17.:44:26.

It is a concrete example of rebalancing Britain.

:44:27.:44:33.

To sit in Liverpool and takd part in the

:44:34.:44:35.

International Festival Of Btsiness and to remember the Liverpool

:44:36.:44:42.

Organisers hope it will provide the catalyst for further investment

:44:43.:44:46.

The Government seems to be trying to boost to the private sector? Is that

:44:47.:45:08.

the right approach? I did not think austerity was the correct approach

:45:09.:45:14.

six years ago. In a recession there is not much private investmdnt. You

:45:15.:45:16.

need public investments to promote growth in the first instancd.

:45:17.:45:23.

Infrastructure, house`buildhng, the foundation of a low carbon dconomy.

:45:24.:45:28.

But it is recovery. After shx years, that is to be welcomdd. The

:45:29.:45:38.

problem is the assurance of sustainability bash will it last? It

:45:39.:45:45.

is too dependent on consumer debt. And the basis of demand, wage levels

:45:46.:45:53.

at 6% down, productivity ond of the worst in OECD, business invdstment

:45:54.:46:04.

still below the pre`trash ldvel it is difficult to see if it is

:46:05.:46:10.

lasting. It is a recovery for the well off, not for the great majority

:46:11.:46:15.

of the population. The numbdr of jobs that are being created are

:46:16.:46:21.

overwhelmingly self`employmdnt. That is not true. We have had ovdr 2

:46:22.:46:28.

million private jobs created. The country was nearly bankrupt. It was

:46:29.:46:35.

the worst recession in history. We had to have proper growth. We had to

:46:36.:46:39.

stabilise the economy. That is what we have done. We have seen no extra

:46:40.:46:48.

people in work. That is now across all sectors, across all parts of the

:46:49.:46:53.

country, and across all ages. Youth unemployment has come down for nine

:46:54.:46:57.

consecutive month. It is 100,00 fewer youth unemployed than in 010.

:46:58.:47:05.

It has been a tough time, btt everybody is now saying we `re the

:47:06.:47:09.

fastest developing countries in the developed world. We are now showing

:47:10.:47:16.

the highest rate of employmdnt in the G7. We are the fastest

:47:17.:47:19.

developing country in the ddveloped world. Whether it is manufacturing,

:47:20.:47:26.

construction, education, agriculture, everybody says that it

:47:27.:47:43.

is. Whoever you care to mention Why is the level of investment 20% below

:47:44.:47:48.

what it was in 2008? People with money do not believe it will last.

:47:49.:47:54.

In Europe you have and the plumbers levels of 50%. It is a lot slower

:47:55.:48:02.

here. You are saying it was tough, it was painful, but it is p`ying

:48:03.:48:08.

off. It will not pay off if we get a brief recovery. It is the longest

:48:09.:48:16.

recession since 1870. The b`sis by which you get demand in futtre are

:48:17.:48:22.

not there. Wage levels are not going up. They are 6% down in real terms.

:48:23.:48:27.

But everybody is looking to the UK now. The key is investment.

:48:28.:48:33.

Investment levels in the prhvate sector are extremely pure. When you

:48:34.:48:37.

see the Government pushing through with things like the City Ddal, that

:48:38.:48:46.

is what they are trying to do. I am sure they are trying. Can I give you

:48:47.:48:54.

an international perspectivd on this? People are looking to how the

:48:55.:49:01.

UK has managed to do this. @merica, Europe and Canada is looking. We

:49:02.:49:04.

have got the fastest rate of employment in the G7. We ard now the

:49:05.:49:08.

fastest developing economy hn the developed world. Look at our

:49:09.:49:14.

exports. We have got car manufacturing a net export rather

:49:15.:49:17.

than a net import. These thhngs were not happening under Labour. Look at

:49:18.:49:28.

the OECD standards. It was tough. Whether it was a financial global

:49:29.:49:32.

crash, or whether it was Labour we have turned the corner. You have

:49:33.:49:38.

mentioned exports. The export situation is a disaster. In every

:49:39.:49:44.

year and your Government exports have been in deficit by ?100 billion

:49:45.:49:49.

per year. It is a disastrous situation. The giant recesshon that

:49:50.:49:58.

started in 2007, look at manufacturing and constructhon,

:49:59.:50:04.

fundamentally things have changed. 1.7 more that `` 1.7 million more

:50:05.:50:15.

people are employed. And employment is 6.6% nationally. It is 6.6%

:50:16.:50:18.

nationally. The 7.6% in this region. All regions are different.

:50:19.:50:27.

In the Southeast and the East Midlands, they are growing `t a

:50:28.:50:31.

faster rate than what we have seen in this region. But more people are

:50:32.:50:36.

employed now than in 2000 and ten. Youth unemployment has falldn. What

:50:37.:50:48.

would Labour do differently? I hope we would promote growth. At the

:50:49.:50:53.

present moment, on a sustainable basis, that is not there. 2.3

:50:54.:51:01.

million people are still Ann Clwyd. That is very high. `` peopld are

:51:02.:51:10.

still out of work. The great majority of new jobs are low paid,

:51:11.:51:15.

insecure, and on zero hours contracts. That is not accurate The

:51:16.:51:20.

majority of the jobs are full`time. Half a century ago, the heavyweight

:51:21.:51:31.

champion of the world, Casshus Clay, was knocked to the canvas bx a left

:51:32.:51:34.

hook from a certain Henry Cooper. Well that Henry Cooper went on to

:51:35.:51:37.

lose, but now a political n`mesake Councillor Henry Cooper is

:51:38.:51:40.

the only politician left ch`llenging They say opposition's

:51:41.:51:44.

a lonely business. Well it is if you're the

:51:45.:51:59.

opposition on Manchester Cotncil. Following last month's council

:52:00.:52:05.

elections Labour now holds 85 of the 96 seats on Manchester council.

:52:06.:52:08.

Henry is the only opposition. By the way even he was elected as ` Labour

:52:09.:52:14.

councillor. Henry, this is why you are now an opposition counchllor.

:52:15.:52:22.

Tell us what happened. Labour councillor for 21 ye`rs up

:52:23.:52:24.

until 2012.I had no alternative but to leave the Labour Party and fight

:52:25.:52:33.

on my own. Then the council backed plans for

:52:34.:52:46.

FC United to build this new Now Henry really is on his own after

:52:47.:52:49.

every Lib Dem opposition cotncillor There seems to be an autonolous

:52:50.:53:42.

regional culture. The grip that Labour have got in metropolhtan

:53:43.:53:43.

areas appears to be total. this impact negatively on the

:53:44.:54:51.

population. But everyday holding to account, that is much harder.

:54:52.:54:55.

The last non`Labour politichan left standing says:

:54:56.:55:02.

Next year possibly 96 Labour. It does not mean they wanted a 1`party

:55:03.:55:13.

state in Manchester. While that prospect exercises opponents, those

:55:14.:55:18.

in charge are relaxed that ht is good for the people of this city.

:55:19.:55:29.

And we're joined from London by Richard Berry from Democrathc Audit,

:55:30.:55:31.

which carries out research hnto the state of British democr`cy.

:55:32.:55:34.

Manchester seems to be well`run What the problem? Some of the

:55:35.:55:44.

comparisons to North Korea `nd China are exaggerated. But there hs a

:55:45.:55:49.

problem. It is bad for democracy when there is only one partx in

:55:50.:55:59.

control. The public needs to see alternative voices in the process.

:56:00.:56:06.

It has been said that the electorate has a choice, and they have chosen

:56:07.:56:12.

Labour. In a sense that is true but the electoral system is called first

:56:13.:56:21.

past the post. That is an artificial system. It produces exagger`ted

:56:22.:56:25.

results for the winning party. Labour did not get 100% of the vote

:56:26.:56:30.

in Manchester, but it has ndarly 100% of the seats on the cotncil.

:56:31.:56:36.

But what problem will you experience in Manchester? Every political party

:56:37.:56:45.

will have choices. There max be a tendency for choices to be lade

:56:46.:56:49.

behind closed doors. Decisions which could be debated in public, in the

:56:50.:56:53.

council chamber, can actually be made by the political group without

:56:54.:56:58.

public scrutiny. What is thd solution to this? The soluthon has

:56:59.:57:03.

to be a more proportional electoral system. There is one in Scotland.

:57:04.:57:17.

That would produce fever resultss. `` that would produce more `ccurate

:57:18.:57:26.

results. Esther McVey, Wirral council is a

:57:27.:57:33.

conservative council, but that does not mean it is better run, but it

:57:34.:57:54.

best `` better run, does it? You need people who can reach ott across

:57:55.:57:59.

the board and see different angles. I do not see that in some areas

:58:00.:58:02.

Could the Government bring `bout reform? What you have got to do

:58:03.:58:15.

which I did in one of my wards, is that we worked harder, we solved the

:58:16.:58:22.

problems of people, and we got extra seats. It is up to us to take

:58:23.:58:27.

responsibility and reflect the views of the people. What do you lake of

:58:28.:58:36.

this more polarised world? Ht shows how unpopular the Conservathves and

:58:37.:58:38.

the Liberal Democrats are in the North. But accountability is

:58:39.:58:45.

extremely important. Where xou get between 90% and 100% of 1`p`rty it

:58:46.:58:51.

becomes a serious issue. Thdre are two ways to deal with it without

:58:52.:58:59.

proportional representation. It is the responsibility of peopld in the

:59:00.:59:05.

governing party to take isste on things they believe the grotp may

:59:06.:59:12.

not be getting right. The lhne between rebellion and sycophancy is

:59:13.:59:18.

a narrow one. And the other way is the media. Where you have openness

:59:19.:59:27.

and transparency, ideally you need the governing group to take account

:59:28.:59:37.

of different views. Make sure everybody goes out to vote.

:59:38.:59:45.

What else has been going on in the region's politics?

:59:46.:59:47.

Local MPs voiced concerns about management at the

:59:48.:59:52.

Morecambe Bay NHS Trust aftdr a second director resigned `head of

:59:53.:59:55.

All the indications are that this does not say favourable things about

:59:56.:00:09.

The reasons behind the decision not to prosecute the former Rochdale MP

:00:10.:00:14.

Cyril Smith over offences against children are to be made public.

:00:15.:00:17.

The CPS's refusal to releasd the files to

:00:18.:00:19.

a newspaper has been overturned by the Information Rights Tribunal.

:00:20.:00:21.

Going underground ` Cheshire East Council is looking

:00:22.:00:23.

for investors into a scheme to use thermal energy to heat homes.

:00:24.:00:26.

Dame Vivienne Westwood was hn Manchester for a debate on fracking.

:00:27.:00:28.

The fashioner designer has previously protested in Sussex

:00:29.:00:34.

and wants more independent research and discussion.

:00:35.:00:40.

It is crucial and yet the ptblic are not informed.

:00:41.:00:46.

And Bootle MP Joe Benton announced that he'll retire

:00:47.:00:48.

His decision comes after thd local Labour Party voted to open tp the

:00:49.:00:52.

Just time to thank my guests ` Esther McVey and Michael Me`cher.

:00:53.:00:59.

For now, I'll hand you back to Andrew Neil in London.

:01:00.:01:11.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

:01:12.:01:14.

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

:01:15.:01:16.

But behind the scenes the parties have

:01:17.:01:20.

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

:01:21.:01:23.

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

:01:24.:01:27.

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

:01:28.:01:36.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

:01:37.:01:42.

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

:01:43.:01:47.

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

:01:48.:01:52.

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

:01:53.:01:58.

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

:01:59.:02:01.

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

:02:02.:02:07.

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

:02:08.:02:09.

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -

:02:10.:02:13.

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

:02:14.:02:22.

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

:02:23.:02:27.

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

:02:28.:02:33.

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

:02:34.:02:40.

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

:02:41.:02:44.

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

:02:45.:02:47.

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

:02:48.:02:51.

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

:02:52.:02:52.

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

:02:53.:03:04.

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

:03:05.:03:09.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

:03:10.:03:12.

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

:03:13.:03:16.

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

:03:17.:03:20.

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

:03:21.:03:24.

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

:03:25.:03:33.

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

:03:34.:03:38.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

:03:39.:03:43.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:44.:03:46.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:47.:03:53.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:54.:04:01.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:02.:04:07.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:08.:04:13.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:14.:04:17.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:18.:04:22.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:23.:04:27.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:28.:04:31.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:32.:04:36.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:37.:04:42.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:43.:04:45.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:46.:04:49.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:50.:04:54.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:55.:04:59.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:00.:05:06.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:07.:05:10.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:11.:05:13.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:14.:05:20.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:21.:05:25.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:26.:05:28.

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

:05:29.:05:31.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:32.:05:39.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:40.:05:44.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:45.:05:46.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:47.:05:52.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:53.:05:58.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:05:59.:06:06.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:07.:06:11.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:12.:06:17.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:18.:06:25.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:26.:06:30.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:31.:06:37.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:38.:06:40.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:41.:06:43.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:44.:06:48.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:49.:06:55.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:56.:06:59.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:00.:07:01.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:02.:07:06.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:07.:07:15.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:16.:07:22.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:23.:07:25.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:26.:07:30.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:31.:07:36.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:37.:07:41.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:42.:07:46.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:47.:07:49.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:50.:07:55.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:56.:08:01.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:02.:08:04.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:05.:08:11.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:12.:08:20.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:21.:08:28.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:29.:08:31.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:32.:08:38.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:39.:08:44.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:45.:08:52.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:53.:08:58.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:08:59.:09:01.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:02.:09:06.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:07.:09:10.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:11.:09:16.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:17.:09:18.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:19.:09:21.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:22.:09:28.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:29.:09:32.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:33.:09:35.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:36.:09:38.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:39.:09:43.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:44.:09:46.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:47.:09:49.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:50.:09:55.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:56.:09:59.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:00.:10:03.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:04.:10:07.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:08.:10:12.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:13.:10:16.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:17.:10:21.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:22.:10:24.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:25.:10:30.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:31.:10:37.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:38.:10:40.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:41.:10:45.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:46.:10:50.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:51.:10:54.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:55.:10:59.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:00.:11:04.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:05.:11:06.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:07.:11:10.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:11.:11:16.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:17.:11:20.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:21.:11:25.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:26.:11:29.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:30.:11:34.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:35.:11:38.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:39.:11:41.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:42.:11:49.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:50.:11:53.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:54.:11:56.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

:11:57.:12:01.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:02.:12:04.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:05.:12:06.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:07.:12:10.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:11.:12:15.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:16.:12:19.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:20.:12:22.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:23.:12:28.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:29.:12:31.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:32.:12:36.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:37.:12:42.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:43.:12:47.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:48.:12:50.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:51.:12:55.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:56.:13:00.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:01.:13:03.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:04.:13:08.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:09.:13:09.

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

:13:10.:13:11.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:12.:13:16.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:17.:13:18.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:19.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:22.:13:52.

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

:13:53.:13:58.

of breathtaking arrogance.

:13:59.:14:05.

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